A Bumpy Ride As Long As Temporary Lasts’
It’s desk clearing time for this blogger. “The housing market is now the all-consuming economic topic, and ‘prices are falling’ is the everybody-says, everybody-knows factoid du jour. I hate to give credence to those happy to see prices fall, but they are falling. OFHEO says that in the second quarter this year the overall deceleration in national prices was the most abrupt ever measured.”
“‘The boom is cooling now,’ said David Lereah, the chief economist for the NAR, who added that falling home sales have been ‘a bit worse than we had anticipated.’”
“According to the Ryland calculator, your monthly payments go toward $2,081 per month. That’s right, your payments will turn out to be 75% bigger than the teaser payment in their ad. Why is Ryland doing this? I think the answer could be that it’s desperate to sell homes. And more than that, it’s desperate to keep prices artificially inflated. Remember, much of the bubble depends on popular acceptance of the myth that home prices don’t fall.’
“The property boom has strengthened the traditional Irish desire to own a home, says Frank O’Dwyer, CEO of the Irish Association of Investment Managers. ‘Property is part of the psyche here,’ O’Dwyer says. ‘People found out if you bought property you couldn’t go wrong.’”
“‘It’s been a double whammy’ with sales falling and buyers canceling orders, Hovnanian CEO Ara Hovnanian said. Potential buyers ‘are reacting to the huge run-up in pricing we have had over the last 36 months. The Florida, Arizona and California markets are becoming very challenging.’”
“‘They’re dropping prices to keep their orders up, it’s that simple,’ said consultant John Burns.”
“Arkansas home sales were down for the fifth straight month in July, putting some home builders and developers in a difficult financial environment. There is a tremendous supply of newly built homes selling for more than $ 300,000 in west Little Rock, broker Roddy McCaskill said. ‘Builders over develop certain price points,’ said Larry Kelly, of the Arkansas Realtors Association. ‘For Sale’ signs line the sidewalks of subdivisions in the stagnant $ 300,000 to $ 400,000 price range.’”
“Home sales in the Colorado Springs area declined last month by the most in four years as the supply of homes on the market hit an 18-year high. ‘We are paying the price today because we borrowed buyers from the future yesterday and the day before,’ said Dave Bamberger, a local economic consultant.”
“It was with tongue in cheek Sunday that I wrote potential retirees to Arizona should consider New Mexico instead. But to some readers, them was fightin’ words. ‘We don’t really want them,’ wrote R.G of New Mexico. ‘They are an expensive lot and put demands on your infrastructure that are unsustainable in the long run. The best bet, really, is for retirees to stay where they are.’”
“With much of downtown Toronto’s housing stock sagging into dilapidation, builders and handymen would seem to have it made in the buy, fix-up and flip game. But just how easy is it to make money? ‘We could lose our shirts on this one,’ builder Randy MacKay says of project No. 3.”
“The steepest drops in price were for apartments in places such as West Vancouver, where the benchmark price for a condo dropped $30,000 to $584,000. ‘I think we are all in agreement that there will be adjustments in the market,’ said Dave Rishel, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. ‘We’d be fooling everybody to say that there will be a steady cycle all the way up to wherever.’”
“San Diego housing prices are reportedly dropping, but you wouldn’t know it from a real estate ad in one local community newspaper. A La Jolla condominium was listed for sale last week at $895,000,000. The line forms to the right.”
“You know the boom is over when even the brokers start predicting lower prices. That was true of the stock-market bubble in 2001, and it’s true now, as the air comes out of housing. Of course, the drop will be only temporary, the brokers’ group says, just until ‘the market works through a buildup in housing inventory.’”
“Anyone who didn’t buy a house last year in hopes of ‘flipping’ it for a quick profit should be fine, they assure us. And perhaps they’re right. But as long as ‘temporary’ lasts, we could be in for a bumpy ride.”
Another amazing week. My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics!
I love this Blog! It’s the only reason why I decided not to buy and rent for the next couple of years.
And it’s a lot of fun. Try this “flipper” video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v06k81eBOIY
Did someone say “FUN”???
Open the accompaniment
in a new window and sing along:
All the eaves are brown
(All the eaves are brown)
And the walls are beige
(And the walls are beige)
I’ve been for a walk
(I’ve been for a walk)
Down the flipper’s way
(Down the flipper’s way)
I am broke and poor now
(broke and poor)
Since I bought in L.A.
(Still avoiding B.K.)
California steaming
(California steaming)
On down the flipper’s way
Saw an Open House
I passed along the way
Well, I asked about the sales
(Asked about the sales)
And how’s the HOA?
(How’s the HOA)
You know the Builder, he was was cold
(Builder he was cold)
He knows I’m forced to stay
(Knows I’m forced to stay)
California screaming
(California screaming)
On down the flipper’s way
All the eaves are brown
(the eaves are brown)
And the walls are beige
(And the walls are beige)
Ive been for a walk
(I’ve been for a walk)
Down the flipper’s way
(Down the flipper’s way)
If I had a buyer
(had a buyer)
I could leave today
(I could leave today)
California screaming
(California screaming)
On down the flipper’s way
I got a California reaming
On down the flipper’s way
California reaming
On down the flipper’s way
=====
Oh, and there’s one in the weekend topics section by request.
Funny. Too bad my sound card’s belly up.
Classic!
Great job, sm landlord. Man there is some excellent talent in this blog.
Ben - thank you for this blog.
my fav so far, nicely done
Amazing news out of California! San Benito county sees an $80,000 median home value drop in only 8 months! This thing is getting ugly folks!
Article at: http://www.realestatedecline.com
Excellent!
hehehe…
A total hoot!!!!!!! Gotta luv this Blog.
And one for the Howard Jarvis contingent:
Warning: this one takes some patience, blues affinity, and knowledge of the accompaniment which you should open in another window and minimize. Note carefully the substitution of “levy” for “levee”.
If they keeps on taxin’ levy’s goin’ to break
If they keeps on taxin’ levy’s goin’ to break
When The Levy Breaks I’ll have no place to stay.
Mean old levy taught me to bitch and moan
Lord mean old levy taught me to bitch and moan
Got what it takes to make a man lose his home
Oh well oh well oh well.
Don’t it make you feel bad
When you’re tryin’ to find your way home
You don’t know which way to go?
If you’re goin’ down South
They go no work to do,
If you don’t know about Chicago.
Cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good,
Now, cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good,
When the levy hits, mama, you got to move.
All last night looked on my levy and moaned,
All last night looked on my levy and moaned,
Thinkin’ ’bout me baby and my happy home.
Going, go’n’ to Chicago,
Go’n’ to Chicago,
Sorry but I can’t take you.
Going down, going down now, going down.
===
Who goin’ down? Any Zepplin fans out there?
I’m a Zep fan yes. This has got to be your best!
Ok, one more for tonight:
Here’s the accompaniment
This is raw, but too good to pass up.
Last night a little flipper came dancin’ to my door
Last night a little flipper Came pumpin cross my floor
She said “Come on baby I got a mortgage for love
And if it expires pray help from above”
In the midnight hour she cried- “more, more, more”
With a flipper yell she cried- “more, more, more”
In the midnight hour babe- “more, more, more”
With a flipper yell- “more, more, more”
More, more, more.
She don’t like debt slavery, she won’t sit and beg
But when I’m tired and lonely she sees me to bed
What tied you down and brought you to me babe
What tied you down I need you here by me
Because
In the midnight hour she cried- “more, more, more”
With a flipper yell she cried- “more, more, more”
In the midnight hour babe- “more, more, more”
With a flipper yell- “more, more, more”
He lives in his own heaven
Collects it to go from the seven eleven
Well he’s out all night to collect a deal
Just so long, just so long it don’t kill his credit.
I walked the “close” with you, babe
A thousand miles with you
I dried your tears of pain, babe
A million times for you
I’d sell my soul for you babe
For money to burn with you
I’d give you all, and have none, babe
Just, just, justa, justa to have you here by me
Because
In the midnight hour she cried- “more, more, more”
With a flipper yell she cried- “more, more, more”
In the midnight hour babe- “more, more, more”
With a flipper yell she cried “more, more, more”
More, more, more.
Oh yeah little baby
she want more
More, more, more, more, more.
Oh yeah little baby
she want more
More, more, more, more.
===
Yikes!
I love this Blog too!
It’s allowed me to feel reasonably sane, a nice thing sometimes
I just love that quote above about the housing market being in trouble because of “borrowing future buyers yesterday and the day before”. That sums it up nicely I think. I think this crash might be unprecedented because it has been borrowing future buyers and pulling buyers out of thin air not only “yesterday”, but indeed “the day before” as well. The scope of it highlights how huge the failure of central-bank policy has been…
Just check out the LEHC flash report on the DC/NOVA/MD homes sales/prices/inventory data for August. Wow!
link?
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
Loudon county is down almost 15% YOY.
OT, but great: The housing bubble has made the wikipedia!
JMunnie — very glad you posted this — I do not know anything about how to update Wikipedia, but for those bloggers who do, Ben needs to be mentioned prominently, rather than as a reference in the footnotes. I notice that Dr. Roubini has a couple of mentions, which is well and good, but in my scan of that entry I didn’t see Ben or his blog noted in the main text. Hopefully one of the faithful here will fix that. Soon.
Please respect internet resources for what they are. The Wikipedia is an encyclopedia, not a hype machine. Just as elections are about candidates, not ABC or FOX, the bubble is a phenomenon and Ben Jones and this blog are just some resources shedding light on it.
There is a lot of discussion on the Wikipedia articles regarding what is appropriate there. Enthusiasts often insert a lot of prominent blog ads and copyrighted photos, but these materials are really not appropriate. The Wikipedia is a place for encyclopedic and referenced discussions, and the more the housing bubble entries there are watered down with reporter drama the more that should be reported will just be edited away.
No. As much of a huge fan of this blog as I am, it should definitely *not* be mentioned in Wikipedia. (Any more than The Economist magazine, or any of the other 1000 publications which warned of the bubble early). That’s not what Wikipedia is for.
This blog should properly be mentioned as a reference on Wikipedia, just as MacKay and Tobias’s book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” should be a reference in an article about bubbles in general. For me, encyclopedia articles should be overviews with bibliographic references to more detailed histories.
Until the definitive history of the 1997-2005 RE bubble is written, this blog is the best contemporaneous reference, and should be referenced. In the footnotes would be fine.
Once the longer history is written, blogs ought to figure in greatly in the chapter on MSM complicity in the bubble. Bubbles are not unique, but the counterpoint to the mania that the blogs provided is historically unprecedented and extremely important. It should be shouted from the rooftops that blogs outdid the media, the market analysts, and even many economists in exposing and predicting the course of the bubble.
I discovered this place this week and am addicted…. Well done Sirs.
As a builder and contractor for 30 years in the Detroit area, I saw our RE dropping for the past 18 months before the “Press” picked up on the news. As a sub contractor for local and national builders in the area, I finally packed it up, could not see a future of having price’s cut on every further job.
I am now working in San Jose CA, out of Residential and sucking out money on Government contracts. Luckily I had contacts out here in the building Biz.
Congratulations!
Most of the builders that I work with that build spec houses never pulled back. You would of needed to be out of the market at the end of last year to not lose your ass.
However, the builders I am working with that are contracting to homeowners in the beach area usually work for 20% of cost. They are still mounted and riding there horses.
thank you for the comments Sobay and Chip.
I was a Carpenter contractor doing high end homes in Detroit suburbs. My last 4 jobs were 3 2 million$ homes and 1 4 million$ home….. and these are not the starter shacks that are selling for that amount in CA. First off we notice pressure on pricing about a year ago, lucky I had the knowledge to do these complicated homes and the builders paid. But, there are so many trades out of work that were doing smaller homes the pricing could only go down.
EX. were we might get 12-15$ sq ft on a job, pay now is 6-8$.
This market is dried up now also.
About 3 years ago bought a lot and was going to build a Spec home on it also, thinking was to get out of the pounding our trade does on the body each day…… had the money and permits, was ready to pull the trigger and start. Something just did not seem right with the market to me, And we had good contracts to fill so I held off. Finely last Oct. decided was not going to do this project, sold the lot, just changed money back and forth……. Had to get some papers from the bank, the guy there was always cool with me, Told me I’m doing the right thing not building the spec, said the just had a meeting that week and that the Bank had 600 construction loans out, and they are preparing to expect to take back 300 of them in the next 6 to 12 months.
Builderboy — I could be wrong, but I think that we are not flush with builders as regular posters. Your insights, as gathered from continuing conversations with others in the trade during this crash, would be welcome — what WERE the margins?, what ARE the margins?, what WILL BE the margins?, who is eating and who is not?, that kind of stuff.
The Ben Jones Housing Bubble Blog, should be given credit as, “The Official Housing Bubble Authority”. Ben should receive a Congressional Medal of Honor, for his efforts to truthfully inform the general public of the consequences of this, “Mother of all Housing Bubbles”.
Many of the posters on this site should receive accolades as being the most talented armature economists, this country has to offer; for their insightful and accurate analysis of this current housing bubble, which dwarfs all previous housing bubbles in history. There should be some kind of Internet blog award, for being the most insightful and accurate blog, on a specific topic, like an Emmy or a Tony award. Ben would win, hands down.
I have been reading, and occasionally participating on this blog for about a year now since my discovery of it; while seeking out truth as to what is going on with our current housing bubble. As an armature economist myself, I’ve known for many years, that we have been in one sort of bubble or another, since before the dot-com bubble even began. However, I could not even begin to articulate all the nuances of our current housing bubble, that the talented posters on this site have been able to do. I am in Awe of the talented posters on this blog, and look forward to reading, and sometimes commenting on posts, as this mother of all housing bubble plays out. I thank you all for having the courage to spell out the truth as to what is going on, which the main stream media dares not, for fear of upsetting the powers that be.
Congratulations Ben. You Are The Man.
What is “armature” economist? Did you mean “amateur”. Before self-congratulating ourselves, lets pay a bit of attention to language, spelling and content. And exercise some restraint when house prices fall 5%. This is nothing compared to the last 5 years 15-20% appreciation when even the most unsavoury homes sets you back 1/2 million. There is no victory yet until those homes will be in their rightful place of $120k POS’s.
There is no victory yet until those homes will be in their rightful place of $120k POS’s.
The day is coming…This will be a decade long crash…
OMFG. Where to start.
“I hate to give credence to those happy to see prices fall, but they are falling. OFHEO says that in the second quarter this year the overall deceleration in national prices was the most abrupt ever measured.”
Second quarter soon to be replaced by third quarter 2006, then fourth quarter 2006…….then repeat for 2007.
Wait until the banks and MBSs start taking the hits from the dropping home values. That’ll be the part that really gets everyone’s attention. Then people will realize that competing with the globe when we’re the richest nation works if we hold the lock on producing quality stuff. When we don’t, then our wages are going to be competing with these same people. We’ll either suck up the pain we deserve for our ignorance and get to work and compete, or there will be war.
The truth needs to be told on how we got here. That truth is a fiat currency, fractional reserve lending, and the people thinking that there was no risk whatsoever in putting your money in a bank with FDIC. Why do you think they give you a % return? Because there is risk. They are loaning YOUR money to someone. That someone is buying a $800,000 house while they make $30,000. It was YOUR money. Why don’t people realize that. Was the money coming from aliens?
Hopefully we will be smart enough to realize it wasn’t terrorism that caused this. If we believe that, we’ll get the outcome of war. If not, we’ll have to start working hard to compete in the game that, we the people, allowed to happen. PEOPLE GET THE GOVERNMENT THEY DESERVE.
It will take an unknown number of years to work and payoff all of our deficits. People have been saying for 30 years that deficits don’t matter. I personally have no idea how we bought that. If debt didn’t matter, we would truly be living in la la land.
Amen brother.
I agree.
Our nation is not much different from most of the people here in OC that are all show, funding their entire lifestyle from debt, living paycheck to paycheck.
I question if our nation is the richest nation in the world if you really take into account all the debt that we have both on a National debt (deficit) level as well as if you take into account the amount of debt most people here have on a personal or family basis. I bet it is mindboggling.
Kudos on the great summation. Make no mistake about where all of this is headed. There will be a war and it will need to be big enough to continue inflating this monstrous debt bubble, especially in the face of all of the cascading cross-defaults that you alluded to. A bubble must continue to inflate or collapse and I just don’t see the dark hands of the shadow government giving up without a fight. Who’s the next target? Iran? China? (god forbid.) Whatever it ends up being, it’s got to be big enough and bad enough to take everybody’s attention off of the farce of our economic situation. How about dropping a nuke on NYC and blaming it on Iran? That should do it.
BTW: Bush is not to blame. He is nothing more than a puppet of the power-brokers and he does what they tell him to do.
- end tin foil moment -
That about sums it up.
Well done!
The “system” is akin to a rotten log full of fat white grubs….
Lawler Economic & Consulting LLc had a good piece on the OFHEO index “bias” ine hot markets
Pay off our deficits?? You must be joking. Even the government admits social security is going bust. America is beyond broke and we will be defaulting on our obligations (to China, our seniors, penioners) Argentina-style, without a doubt. Be a saver (precious metals, not dollars!) or eat dog food and live in a cardboard box. The choice is yours, America.
Social security is solvent for 40+ more years, that’s if the federal government pays back what it took from the fund.
Make the government pay the money back by forcing them to cut spending.
Nothing wrong with Social Security that couldn’t be solved with means testing and raising the retirement age a couple of years.
The government we deserve? That’s a scary thought.
I have argued before that debt is not inherently evil. It is a form of capital. If you spend the capital on consumable items that is bad, but if it is spent building infrastructure it is perfectly valid.
So the focus should be on how the money has been spent, not on that it was borrowed. On that point I do agree there should be some concern we have not be spending money wisely.
Oliver
I take it that means the $250k Medicaid spends a year to take care of one illegtimate “crack” baby ain’t prudent spending???????
Or the $400k for 6 months of intenstive to take care of that 85YO’s heart attack?
C’mon what kind of monster are you? (tongue poking thru cheek)
US is fooked. $300.00 Yugoslav Ak-47’s and gold…lock and load.
Why do you think they give you a % return? Because there is risk
Wrong. It’s because capital yields income. That’s Economics 001.
Even up you never expected prices to go up, you’d be willing to pay interest to borrow money for a house because you could either rent it out or get the benefit of living in it (imputed income).
People are willing to pay postive real interest rates on money because capital yields positive real returns.
“I hate to give credence to those happy to see prices fall, but they are falling.”
This is the just the foreshadowing of capitulation phase of the bubble after denial phase. Denial Phase is ending. Panick Selling is next.
- ‘a bit worse than we had anticipated.’”
Who let the cat out of the bag?
I smell PANIC and a mighty crash any day now. This is a quote off the “Real Estate never goes down” Inman website—>
It’s not a whisper-turns-to-hysteria deal. The dominant tone in the prices-are-falling pronouncement is pleasure, often self-satisfied and/or envious: I knew they would fall. Serves ‘em right (most common among those who missed the party, couldn’t afford to buy what they thought they deserved, or don’t much care for Realtors). Every bond trader wants a housing collapse and recession. Stock market types are delighted that housing may finally look worse than their (flat) stuff.
David — I read the same stuff. I think most of Ben’s army follow the discipline of “Gracious in victory, humble in defeat.” Among ourselves, we can caw and crow and brag and toast as we would upon our team winning a championship. To our friends and those who aren’t, on the other hand, we’ll probably just empathize and get on with life.
The fact that we’ll end up with the biggest-ass house, while the other guys are in Fleetwoods, will be secondary.
Agreed, we all really need to be careful with what/who we talk to over the next few years. We have known what was going to happen for a long time, and we tried to warn others. They chose not to listen.
However, what happened? I am getting ready to move into a 3200 sq/ft home that was built 2 years ago for 2K a month rent (I could buy it for 600K, someone please help me with that decision). The people we tried to warn were probably already paying 2K a month, on their POS home they spent 300K on. Now they are facing their ARM resets, rising insurance costs (in FL), and flat wages.
Although everyone was always so nice to tell me how much their home went up in value; I think I will be nice and not return the favor of telling them I live in a McMansion for less then 1/2 the cost of their POS in the extraburbs of S. Fl (which, for those who don’t know the area, is, imho, anything west of the TurnPike).
(I could buy it for 600K, someone please help me with that decision).
You’d best analyze your market, to determine the percentage of people who could pony up a 20% downpayment (which the gov. will force lenders to revert back to-when this insanity crashes), and cover the balance with a fixed rate note. Bet it’s pretty limited.
This will be a decade long bust to wring out the excess.
Buy now at your own peril. The shit’s only just startin’.
The way things are going, prices falling that is, I won’t be priced out forever.
“I hate to face the truth…so I am going to shut my eyes tight. I can’t hear you…LALALALALALA.”
No No No, remember that the Spring selling season is just around the bend. It’s actually spring/summer in AUS now.
Get this……. a Realtwhore broker friend of my in laws was telling my wife yesterday that with rates dropping, alot of the buyers she knows that were waiting are going to be buying this fall (yes this FALL) and prices will be going back up quickly. (sounds like something she got from good old Gary Watts). Wife politely told her she has seen all the news on CNBC and the articles in the News about the NAR b.s. ….and that she personally remembers the early nineties. Once psychology changed back in 1991 nothing moved, supply skyrocketed and prices fell. Wife said sorry but we dont believe it, history will repeat and we will be buying in 2008 at the earliest. Realtwhore said OC was different…, and wife said no way.
Take your wife out a nice dinner….she deserves it.
I have been reading faithfully since this blog saved my butt from buying a condo this past March in Murietta.
I too felt compelled to tell off a realtwhore a few weeks ago, who came into where I work (where several of my co workers are about to have a very rough go of it from their recent purchases) and she insisted to me that NOW is the time to buy, because it is a sellers market. I quickly retorted that, a sellers market is NOT right now and thanks, but why would I buy in, when prices are going to DROP by as much as 30% or more? (I’m in the Inland Empore, California)
She then told me to buy, and hang onto my house, and in a year or two, everything would be fine, and it would have appreciated, just not by as much as they have been. Besides, I would have a rax write off (she assumed I’d mortgage it).
I again countered by adding that aside from the obvious money I would lose (since I would be paying cash and not mortgaging) by the time I figure in costs of Property Taxes, HOAs, Mello Roos, etc… I don’t come out ahead, but very far behind for a while.
I may have pissed off a customer, but I am really sick of the lies, and I just wanted her to know, that there are “average” people onto her game.
keep up the good work, and thanks for bearing with the less technical readers!!
We have reached a point of debt saturation. Debtors cannot absorb another penny of debt. It does not matter if the federal reserve and the bond market lowers the interest rate to zero. An upside-down mortgage cannot be refinanced even at a 0% interest rate, without bringing money to the table; with the current appraisals.
Game Over.
Imagine if the CEO of Exxon said “I hate give creedance to those happy to see oil prices fall…”
Agreed. This guy encapsulates it all in one line; the greed, arrogance, denial and ignorance that defined the housing bubble. In the history of bubbles it ranks up there with ‘Dow 36000′ and any Business 2.0 cover from 1999.
check out this video of a real estate scam artist who was exposed by a local investigative news team.
his wife went berserk on the reporter, then her husband showed up and started trying to gouge out the reporters eyes and beating him severely.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d98Vjuo3zQ
this sort of thing will only happen more often as the scam artists are exposed.
btw- both the husband and wife are now in prison for felonious assault, not to mention they are charged with multiple counts of mortgage document forgery and bad checks.
the entire home sale industry has become the biggest criminal fraud in the history of the USA.
anyone got some popcorn? i just hope we taxpayers arent forced to bail these criminals out.
attacker while not identified as a ReMax agent had to be working for a broker who has to be a member of CAR/Leslie Appleton Young. Makes you wonder if attacker took a class in ethics, if his license is still being held by a broker and when LAY speaks does she speak for attacker.
LICENSE
ID NAME LICENSE
TYPE MAILING ADDRESS
CITY
00787422 Suleiman, Adnan D Salesperson POMONA
01052421 Suleiman, Albert Ayemaung Salesperson NEWBURY PARK
01257652 Suleiman, Assad Salesperson SAN DIEGO
01199423 Suleiman, Edward Salesperson SAN DIEGO
01036389 Suleiman, Hamed A Salesperson SAN FRANCISCO
01306392 Suleiman, Husam Broker/Officer SAN BERNARDINO
01430120 Suleiman, Jennifer L Salesperson RIPON
01415110 Suleiman, Leena Salesperson SAN DIEGO
01384065 Suleiman, Sasha Nicholas Salesperson SAN DIEGO
01455508 Suleiman, Shakila Salesperson CHULA VISTA
01388339 Suleiman, Tony Aref Salesperson RIPON
01257652 Suleiman-Khel, Assad Salesperson SAN DIEGO
http://www2.dre.ca.gov/PublicASP/pplinfo.asp
no sam suleiman on this list!!!!
his real name is assad. Sam is his nick name and low and behold no employing ReMax Broker. What a relief for Remax!!!
http://www2.dre.ca.gov/PublicASP/pplinfo.asp?License_id=01257652
If he doesn’t have a ‘Broker’ he can’t practice real estate? Oh, alleged fraud and battery isn’t real estate so he’s OK.
Looks like a Where are they now House Flippers. Don’t they remind you of all the sleaze balls on flip those shows prancing around like they are so great. That’s where they are now.
lol Lizzie.. yep
Agreed. Guy rolls up in his benz, double-parks and starts biting and eye-gouging a reporter who is half his size and has his arms crossed. The guy who tried to pull him off was about to be interviewed about how Suleiman had bitten him in the past.
I saw this on the news last night…and thought…
If I was an investigative reporter, I would either be a blackbelt or carry a “nine”. Just let the %$#&*er come after me.
I would’ve at least fought back. For some lunatic reason the reporter stood there letting them make tuna carpaccio out of his face. What a jack ass.
the best he could do was attempt to bite the attacker’s shin
The “jack ass” took one for the team (not to mention his bonus).
Someone (I think it was here) told a similar story about the towtruck operator hitching up a wheelclamped car for towaway when the owner charges out and starts swinging.
“Sure I’ll unhitch your car for 100 dollars (whack), make that 200 (whack), 300 . . .”
Tow truck drivers patroling property are just as bad as realtors.
From what I understand, these fraudsters own an ocean view home in La Jolla. Sounds like the reporter should get a nice new pad out of the deal. That’s a good reason not to fight back (and a great thing the cameraman kept the film rolling — plenty of evidence).
Reporter’s gonna laugh his a$$ off all the way to the bank, IMO. Let’s hope so!
We ‘Kick Ass’ here in So Ca!
Anytime that we want - we can send in West Coast Chopper!
Our Gov Schwarzenegger even has a ‘Wild Bunch’ …..
(that would be ‘black blood’ mixed with Latino blood = ‘HOT’.
Only in the “nation of laws”! Financial criminals know what a farce American laws are. The risk-reward is so favorable to financial criminals that America is a haven for financial Crooks of all manners. No one know this better than the Corporate Crooks of America.
Jas
The real Jas Jain? I’ve read many of your reports! Ladies and gentlemen, we have a celebrity here!
Wow, love your articles!
They’re out on bail…
AFTER THE BELL:
Standard Pacific cuts third-quarter outlook
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF : Standard Pacific Corp. late Friday said it expects third-quarter earnings to come in below its previous forecast of 80 cents to 85 cents a share. The Irvine, Calif.-based homebuilder also said it expects to lower its full-year earnings and delivery outlook. Standard Pacific said net new home orders for the first two months of the third quarter were down 58% from the same period last year, driven mainly by an increase in the company’s cancellation rate and further weakening of demand in many of its larger markets. The company’s gross orders for July and August were off 30% from last year. The backlog at Aug. 31 stood at 4,837 pre-sold homes valued at $1.8 billion.
In light of lower than expected order levels for the first two months of the 2006 third quarter and deteriorating market conditions, the Company anticipates that third quarter earnings per share will be materially below our previously provided guidance. In addition, the Company expects to lower its earnings and delivery guidance for the full year and will provide an update in conjunction with its regularly scheduled earnings release at the end of October.
Down 58%!!
Well I am sure their employees and shareholders are thrilled with this soft landing we are having and that business is getting back to “normal”.
lol.
cut a billion dollars from their market cap and figure out the new share price. hehe.
I had to take a bus to Whistler from Vancouver airport last winter and the damn bus driver just went on and on about how great the property market was and pointed out houses and condos with associated price. Sort of like the shoeshine boy when the bus driver is a RE speculator.
Have the similar story, last year, taxicab driver here in OC airport told me he had 2 condos, one in LV and the other in Phoenix.
Our economy is going to be sooooo screwed.
- Sort of like the shoeshine boy when the bus driver is a RE speculator.
- Outstanding!! Yes um master
good thing that all the top executives for all the large homebuilders sold 1.8 billion dollars worth of insider shares last august, while they were on CNBC saying the housing market is solid and only going up.
it’s the exact same fraud as the dot.com mania in 1999 and 2000. only the industry has changed.
i’m just upset that the average american keeps falling for the same scam over and over. it appears there is no way to teach them that people are out to rip them off. the average american’s greed is so great that they will invest with any charlatan who promises them a profit.
I think this is where a lot of my anger comes from. This is the 2nd great wealth transfer in the last 7 years and they were both accomplished with lies and deceit. When will the sheeple learn OR when will our leaders stop this fraud and abuse!
you’re making a mistake in assuming that our leaders have any reason to protect the little guy from massive fraud.
they dont. they are paid by the architects of that massive fraud.
the only difference between the US and a banana republic like argentina or mexico is that our bribery and fraud is more sophisticated, so the average person doesnt see it happening.
I agree with Steelietown. The average guys don’t have $$$ to lobby the politicians, whereas the home building industry, realtors, etc. have big bucks to buy off the regulators, politicians, etc.
I think a hard deep reccession might cure some of this!
The best thing that could happen to this country is a recession. People don’t want to work. The illegal aliens are doing all the jobs nobody else wants. Teenagers in my neck of the woods wouldn’t be caught dead working at McDonalds. I grew up in a middle class white collar neighborhood. It was a thrill to turn 16 and work at McDonalds. Everyone feels entitled. Let them know what the value of a dollar earned really is!
I agree with you 100%. I see this country at a crossroads, and maybe a major recession is just what we need to ensure we take the correct path. Of course, a major recession could increase the sense of entitlement for many and accelerate our path to has-been status. But at least we’ll have France to keep us company in that department.
The complaint that “nowadays no one wants to work anymore” probably goes back to the ancient Greeks and before …
Too many average Joes these days know someone who was a hard worker and was good at his job who got laid off for no better reason than to provide an incompetent CEO with golden parachute. The fact is that hard work and good skills no longer provide a decent shot at a stable career. I’m not surprised that people are looking for other ways to finance their lives, such as speculation in the stock market or in real estate.
“Teenagers in my neck of the woods wouldn’t be caught dead working at McDonalds.”
I agree with you regarding young people not wanting to work at McDonalds, etc. I started working when I was 13 with a paper route. This was back in the day when we had to do our own collections, and when the deadbeat customers did not pay the bill, the paper boy got screwed. In my teens I held jobs at pizza joints, restaurants, retail stores, etc. I hated the jobs, but needed to work to support myself. Recently, I took notice that my neighbors kid finished high school having never worked, and never entered college or took a job. He just hangs out around the house, parties, and does nothing. He is now 21 and a real loser. I blame a lot of it on parenting, but have definitely noticed a lack of motivation and drive in a lot of the younger generation.
The sicker you are…the stronger the medicine you need.
And the U.S. is wery wery sick (bugs bunny voice)
Bring it on!!!
“Teenagers in my neck of the woods wouldn’t be caught dead working at McDonalds.”
Working at McDonalds? Heck, teenagers here in Northern Virginia wouldn’t be caught dead working period.
Those that do work are showered with bubble-compensation - 12 year old babysitters demand $15/hour and it’s assumed they’ll be tipped on top of that!!
These kids are going to be shell-shocked when they get out into the real world.
What we need is a complete and total economic melt down. And that’s exactly what we are going to get.
The complaint that “nowadays no one wants to work anymore” probably goes back to the ancient Greeks and before …
The ancient Greeks didn’t have to work. They had slaves. Now I guess modern Americans think they have replicated this by using illegals, but I think they’re in for a surprise.
Annata,
Give me a break! Where is this new. The average Joe has been working to provide for the CEO, the King, the greeks…. since the beginning of time! My Grandparents generation worked low paying factory jobs starting at the age of 12. They saved, lived within their means and died saving more money than most folks have in their savings today. Someone got their golden parachute from their hard work. They had lay offs, they had rough times but somehow they got through.
Today folks would rather complain, collect an unemployment check and play the blame game. Capitalism isn’t fair, but hard work can get you ahead. No, not everyone is going to be the CEO. Doesn’t justify the get rich quick schemes people look for. Especially when they hurt innocent people in the process. Many hard working people can no longer afford homes because of real estate speculation. No pity there. People get burned.
The illegals are probably like my grandparents. They know the reality of feast or famine. Save for those famine times…… My cleaning lady makes around $1500 a week, cash. Her husband paints houses and makes even more. I am a teacher. She makes more money than I do.
Luckily, through hard work and some tough years,when my husbands bosses got richer while we became poorer and we both had to work two jobs, we are financially okay. If we lost it all tomorrow, I’d go clean houses. My husband would paint houses. We would do what we have to do. Opportunity is out there! Most Americans are too lazy to find it!
A-freakin’-men!
“so the average people don’t see it happening…” Common, that is saying that people or sheep in these case do not have much of a choice. Anyone who makes $20-30K a year has to know that they CANNOT afford mortgages and houses beyond what their income level is. Saying that someone has misled them is not really facing the fact that the idiotic American investor is totally free of guilt. The best Greek fablelist, Aesop has some fairly good examples of where blind GREED leads people…The American home buyer in this bubble is more stupid that that dog that had a piece of meat and saw his own reflection in the water and what the buyer deserves is loosing that “meat” or the house as an example of their blinded greed.
Thank you for the affirmation. I have been saying the same thing for some time now. People knew what they were getting into. They were being irrationally exuberant.
Additionally, like him or not, when Greenspan talked of “the froth”, anybody and everybody that was in over their head, should have taken that as the sell signal.
I agree. The sheeple have significant blame in this and they will pay a significant financial price for this. However, why should the crooks at the top just walk away with billions - They have lied and deceived anyone and everyone. They are on every TV and newspaper spouting their endless REIC propoganda. Why should they not pay a price for this?
“Why should they not pay a price for this?”
They shouldn’t, but probably they will skate — this time. But look at the impact of blogging just during this bubble. During the dot-com boom blogs were not, to my knowledge, significant players in the spotting of fraud, failure and cracks. Now they are. Next bubble, blogging may well nip it in the bud (do bubbles “bud”?), by allowing posters to feed the right information to the right people at the right time, with enough “blogdom” publicity to ensure that it cannot successfully be hushed-up. That presumes Leviathan will not by then have garnered enough political and technical power to squash the Internet blog nuisance, under one “security” guise or another.
In WWI and particularly WWII, underground radio systems carried vital transmissions to free partisans all over Europe. Hopefully we’ll never see the day when governments can outwit and outmaneuver the most determined of free-speech advocates.
“i’m just upset that the average american keeps falling for the same scam over and over.”
Good point. I’ll maintain what I’ve been saying for a long time. Inflated money supply shows up somewhere, creating incredible imbalances and malinvestments. The Federal Reserve, fiat money, and the enormous moral hazard implicit in our economy and market will continue to cause pain and anguish for its citizens.
Did anybody read about the Zimbabwe situation? Is that a possibility in the US?
The Zimbabwe situation could not translate to the US at all. First and foremost, the worst excesses in Zimbabwe have to do with confiscations of property. In the US property rights are very much stronger. The chaos in Zimbabwe emerges from a long period of explicit colonialism followed by a period of implicit colonialism where the vast majority of industries were owned and controlled by people of British ancestry and culture. The US does not have a master class that is visibly different from the majority of the population.
The chaos in Zimbabwe stemmed from the deposing of majority of land owners and the giving away the land to the landless peasants. While in theory, this might seem like a great idea, it turns out that farming actually requires a knowledge of how to grow crops and also access to capital. After the land was given away, all of the bank loans with land as collatral became uncollectible and a loss. And of course the banks are not going to loan money again on the exact same land that they just lost thier shirts.
End result, Zimbabwe went from a country that exported crops, to a country that needs to import crops just to feed the people.
Zimbabwe also is on the tail end of a long, blatant period of black-on-white racism. That, somwehow, did not warrant much MSM coverage. The Zims, under Mugabe, were so intent on running out the white farmers and taking their property, they gave no thought to the matter of running the farms thereafter. The farmers mostly resettled in South Africa and in Australia, where farming conditions are similar and, at least in the case of Australia, their expertise welcomed. Within ruling black Zimbabwe, politics is governed by tribal affiliation and animosity. Zimbabwe is ruined. They got what they wanted, perhaps, and look now at what they have.
I have been to Zimbabwe twice in the 90’s. I loved it. I would not dare step food in that place again until things calm down there.
Victoria Falls is worth visiting, in rainy season, even if it were dangerous. (You can visit Vic Falls from Lusaka, in Zambia, which now is safer than Zimbabwe.) Generally, this is the limit of a tourist’s exposure to Zimbabwe except for the Eastern Highlands. Weather throughout Zimbabwe iranges from nice to wonderful year-round. There is a nifty train that runs, or used to, from Bulawayo to Vic Falls and back, and there was an Orient Express connection from South Africa to Bulawayo, the latter being a place to change transport, rather than visit. Some of the best big-game hunting in the world is available to a very restricted number of rich lottery winners. Except for those few places and activities, Zimbabwe is not a place for tourists. It is a self-made basket case, no pun intended.
Ponder this, why is it that you can murder someone and only have the local law enforcement on your case, but heaven forbid you rob a bank and the FBI is in on the action? I know I know, FDIC. How about this, Bank robbery == Federal Crime, Identify theft = a headache to local Law Enforcement. Bottom line is that you and me and Joe sixpack don’t mean a whole lot to the Feds other than a meal ticket int he form of a taxpayer. By the people, for the people, yeah right!
I recommend everyone read “The Creature from Jekyll Island - A Second Look at the Federal Reserve” by G. Edward Griffin. Best book on explaining what a scam it all is.
What about the war,started with a lie and now Halliburton is billing the govt. $1.25 billion per month
Went around. Comin’ around.
yep you are right.
Did we forget that the gov’t gets half the proceeds from this fraud?
If an influx of population ruins NM I’ll have to move to southern Utah. I don’t think it’s worth retiring here though because of poor health care options. And for the younger folks, good luck finding any decent work here.
I’m moving to Australia, if they don’t get this illegal immigration thing under control.
Or maybe New Zealand.
Austraila rated No. #6 best country in the world in which to live.
US @ #16 and sinking.
No, more NUMBA #1, GI, NO MORE NUMBA #1!!!!!!!!!!!
You’re going to emigrate if the US doesn’t tighten control of immigration? I don’t get it. You will be the job-stealing foreigner there, but at least you won’t be a darkie, right buddy (wink, wink, nudge, nudge)
I am tired of hearing people of moving to Australia or elsewhere. Have you checked their entry requirements? Did you check what the tax situation is? Try to live there for a couple of years and you’ll thing that US is paradise. To start with, their economy (as much as Canada) is concentrated to few spots unrelated to each other. If Sydney tanks, how easy is to move to Perth? At least here, we have far more options and second-chances.
Those recent immigration new countries (Australia, New Zealand and to some extent Canada), rely on older immigrants screwing the newer immigrants. Try to bring some credentials (medical, engineering) into thse countries, and you’ll see that is almost impossible even to be considered. I used to live in Toronto, and now go on business. Lots of PhD’s driving taxies there.
“The property boom has strengthened the traditional Irish desire to own a home, says Frank O’Dwyer, CEO of the Irish Association of Investment Managers. ‘Property is part of the psyche here,’ O’Dwyer says. ‘People found out if you bought property you couldn’t go wrong.’”
Har! It’s a “Tara”-thing!
From the Sept/Oct issue of a new central NY magazine called “The Good Life”
By Tim Knauss who also writes for the Syracuse Post Std (newspaper)
(Worth reading as it offers good insight to who’s still buying.)
“Tom Cela’s jumping right into the deep end.
After running a manufacturing company for years, Cela is branching out into home building with Carroway Luxury Homes, LLC, a company he started last year. Carroway’s first house is a 6300-square-foot Colonial at Waterford Woods in DeWitt. (suburb of Syracuse)
And Cela started the house “on spec” - that is, before locating a buyer.
It’s listed at $845,000 but could easily sell for $1 million if the buyer wants to add some extra amenities, says real estate agent Mark Tetley, who represents the builder.
A million-dollar spec home? In Central New York?
“We think this is a very easy sell,” Cela says.
His company bought six lots at Waterford Woods, and Cela intends to fill them with million dollar homes. He’s already started work on a second house, a $1.35 million showpiece he plans to live in and use as a model.
“We see this as a street of million-dollar homes,” Cela says, standng at his spec house on Bergenfield Way.
The fact is, such streets are becoming more common.
Homes that approach $1 million are no longer the rarities they once were in the Central New York, despite the fact that local housing prices are about half the national average.
Builders say they are seeing increasing demand at the high end of the price scale - $500,000 and up- fueled in large part by the perception that real estate is a good investment.
“There’s definitely more demand,” says David Stringer, who has been building luxury homes for 30 years. “That’s because of what’s happened to the housing industry in the past five years. Everybody has tried to step up a notch because it’s been such a good investment.”
Stringer Homes LLC builds one or two $1million-plus homes a year, Stringer says.
The clamor for high end homes comes in part from engineers, doctors and other professionals recruited to Syracuse from others cities, where many of them made a handsome profit on the sale of their previous homes, Tetley says.
Others looking for big-ticket homes are local move-up buyers, Realtors say.
“There’s a lot of money in Syracuse-you’d be surprised,” says Gloria Barbano Weyl, a real estate broker at Coldwell Banker Prime Properties. “After 9/11, everybody wanted to put their money where they could see it.”
Rising real estate values and low interest rates have encouraged people to invest more money in their homes than they did years ago says builder Todd Loscombe, of Loscombe Custom Homes.
“Traditionally, you just didn’t spend that kind of money on homes,” Loscmbe says. “Whether you had it or not, it just wasn’t thought of.”
But that has changed.
Dee Burlingame Casale, who manages the DeWitt office of Prudential First Properties, says some of the luxury home buyers she sees are young familiies who have taken money out of the stock market and put it into their homes.
“I think a lot of the younger people may have made money in the technology markets and in Wall Street,” she says. “They were smart enough to sell when it was a good time to sell and have reinvested it in what they think is a better rate of return.”
What are they getting for their money?
Size for one thing. Builders say houses of 8,000 square feet or more are increasingly common.
Fine interior finishes also drive up prices, says builder Scott McClurg, president of McClug Associates. Some granite countertops, for example, cost as much as $15,000, he says.
Local Realtors are selling four times as many luxury houses as they did five years ago.
In 2001, just 19 houses sold for $500,000 or more in the Syracuse metro area, according to the Greater Syracuse Association of Realtors. By 2005, that number had risen to 84. This year’s total should approach 90; through June 30, there were 44 sales at $500,000 or more.
“It’s a testament to Central New York doing well,” says Chris Teelin, builder liaison and assistant to owners Tom and Maureen Teelin or Prudential First Properties. “We’re doing well. Wealth has been created. We’re no longer that blue collar town.”
(I read this article with my lower lip on my lap! I think I was the most horrified when I read young families were taking money out of the market to buy these homes (instead of investing it in a safer place) Please have at it (with gusto!) so I can forward this thread onto the local bozo writer that wrote this….as well as the editor of this thing.)
Can’t keep those millionaire engineers out of Syracuse, they tried everything.
Agreed!
WTF!!!
So this area is six months behind Idaho, New Mexico and Wyoming. Soon they will crumble under the weight of their pipe dreams of “everybody in X town is rich”, “we are different”, “homes are always a great investment”, and all of the other things they say when they are trying to pull the wool over the sheeples eyes!
I also was stunned that with all the hundreds of stories/media coverage of the “bubble”, that the editors would still have the audacity to print this stuff.
I’m thinking the builders still suspect that there are plenty of GFs left locally. So much for the Joe Six Pack comments though. These people will be victims of their own hubris. I’m telling you CNYers truly do believe they’re different. I will be experiencing major schadenfreude watching this thing unravel.
It is ironic that this central New York area is where many robber baron monopolists chose to build their mansions.
- A La Jolla condominium was listed for sale last week at $895,000,000. The line forms to the right.”
The line to the ‘Crap House’ forms to the right.
The magazine is probably funded by the builders and realtors.
Actually awhile back NY mag did an interesting article on the bubble.. a cover story in fact (see below) . What this illustrates, though is how the press often whipsaws its readers with contradictory stories because editors don’t demand their reporters examine either the raw data behind their sources claims or the biases of their sources themselves. I would say even a cursory examination of house prices/annual salaries in syracuse would show the b.s. behind all these glowy statements.
That Sinking Feeling – Is Your Apartment Like a Dot-Com Stock?”
The scariest aspect of today’s real estate market is the conviction that houses are always a good investment. According to Miller Samuel, the median price of a Manhattan co-op has tripled since 1995, vastly exceeding the performance of, say, the S& 500, which has merely doubled. But the median Manhattan co-op also cost the same in 1999 as it did in 1981, eighteen years earlier. Over that period the S& 500 rose tenfold (before dividends!). New York Magazine, May 23, 2005, Cover Story
“I think a lot of the younger people may have made money in the technology markets and in Wall Street,” she says. “They were smart enough to sell when it was a good time to sell and have reinvested it in what they think is a better rate of return.”
Thank god. So I guess the crash of 2000 never really happened, just like previous real estate crashes never really happened. It was all a figment of the bears’ imaginations.
The most ridiculuous real estate propaganda. OK, you are a millionaire engineer. How much do you think can make in Central NY state? 80-90k tops, but you relocated from a high appreciation area. Even if you put a $300k downpayment, the most you can buy will be $600k. This will be a $2000 mortgae + what is property tax on a $600k home, probably another $600 a month + huge bills, we are talking $3000 a month house costs, and this is very conservative. This will be 60% of your take home pay easy.
“How much do you think can make in Central NY state? 80-90k tops.”
Sorry Bombo Blaster. My h is an engineer and you are way off. Low level guys get paid that around here. My friend’s husband is an engineer now VP and he is well into six figures. (Although he’s PhD w/business masters) Funny thing is they have a very modest home for their income as its more about gathering knowledge for this couple, not impressing others.
Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting sent out its flash report on the MRIS data for the DC/NOVA/nearby MD area. NOVA/DC median sales price down quite a bit!
LEHC really seems to be on top of the local markets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Lawler — are related to Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting? If you are, would you mind posting a link to your report, or learning how to do so? If you’re a troll, that was pretty lame.
Chip,
Not sure if you knew this or not, but this is Tom Lawler:
“In a presentation prepared for a National Association of Home Builders meeting May 5, Fannie Mae’s (FNM : Fannie Mae
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FNM52.31, +0.65, +1.3%) Thomas Lawler said housing-market conditions in many areas mirror past conditions that preceded regional housing busts. Lawler is senior vice president for risk policy at the housing-finance giant.”
http://tinyurl.com/zngcm
…NOT a troll
Tom is one of the most well-informed, valuable posters we could have here, IMHO. Amazing the quality of posters Ben’s blog attracts.
Tom,
Thank you for posting your insight here. Your participation is very much appreciated!!!
OK, I got snookered big-time. Bad on me. Kudos to you — slick.
I really did end the italics (I thought). Sorry!
People just dont seem to get it. I live in silicon valley, and probably 90% of my friends were up to their necks in dot.com fraud back in the late 90s. You’d meet them at parties and when they got drunk they would all admit they were basically criminals.
Yet it kept going on, and on, because most of the average stock investors were too naive to realize the massive fraud going on. Eventually, when there were no more new suckers, all the execs sold out at the top and the market collapse 90% or more for most dot.com stocks.
Those executives were nothing more than criminals. They all inflated their company’s revenues, filed bogus SEC annual reports, and basically did anything to keep the stock prices high while they unloaded.
Here’s a hint- none of them ever faced any criminal charges, and a huge percentage of those same people jumped to the real estate bubble as it started to form.
I weep for america- we’re a nation of ignorant fools who are so greedy they can’t spot obvious fraud. We keep investing in the same scams, hoping the scam will last long enough for us to cash out before the scam is exposed.
And this is the basis of our entire national economy.
We are so doomed it isnt even funny.
I don’t care about stock investors. Most (not all) average people invested cash, no leverage. Now, leveraged to the eyeballs. This will be really painful.
Asked in Feb 2000 for five stocks to hold for next five years, James Cramer serves up this dog’s breakfast: “Yahoo!, AOL, SUNW, NOK, CSCO.” pg 8
“What is dangerous is for Americans not to be in the stock market. We’re going to reach the point where the stocks are correctly priced, and we think that’s 36,000.” James Glassman, CNN, Dec 1999. pg 38
“I really dont think valuation is all that relevant here. So I would stick with the market leaders.” Gregg Hymowitz, Prinicpal, Enthrust Capital, CNN, March 2000. pg 52
“We have a better business model. It’s a fundamentally better business model.” Jeffrey Skilling, CEO, Enron, Information Week, Nov 2000 pg 90
“There are absolutely no problems that had anything to do with Jeff’s departure. There are no accounting issues, no trading issues, no reserve issues, no previously unknown problem issues. The company is probably in the strongest and best shape that it has ever been in.” Kenneth Lay, Chairman, Enron, Businessweek Online Aug 2001 pg 91
“The firm that figures out how to bring out the knowledge and insights of two disciplines together to get the power of three, will be the real leader in this model. And we intend to be that leader.” Joseph Bernardino, CEO, Arthur Andersen, Business Times, Singapore, Feb 2001 pg 92
Wait for the “experts” to voice their “vison for the future” via their bought and paid for media outlets….and then do the opposite.
The “system” is this country is rigged to keep a small elite….elite.
The periodic bubbles are a great way to keep the masses…broke.
LONG LIVE…democratic capitalism?
Not quite.
Watch for a change in the rules. Think about the unintended consequences. Imagine how some greedy thieves could take advantage of it. Alternatively, think of how some new technology could enable mass fraud in an area where small-time fraud is already up and running.
Then sell them the picks and shovels.
In hindsight, I can think of many examples. For example, when computers became cheap enough to automate MediCare billing, I remember a company that sold automated billing systems to fraud mills in Compton. They did well and walked away clean.
Or how about when the Florida boiler rooms needed stocks to sell in 1994? Wall Street started manufacturing the dot.bomb companies for their consumption. By Christmas 1995 they had companies retailing products online for less than wholesale cost of the products, and the stocks started soaring. We all know where it went from there.
This ain’t working,
That’s the way you do it,
Making money on the MTV.
Me, cynical?
” ‘Friends’, says he, ‘the taxes are, indeed, very heavy; and, if those laid on by the government were the only ones we had to pay, we might more easily discharge them; but we have many others and much more grievous to some of us. We are taxed twice as my by our idleness, three times as much by our pride, and four times as much by our folly’”.
“The Way to Wealth” by Benjamin Franklin
Before the installation of my new roof this summer, I asked my roofer friend the difference between a 40 and 50 year roof. He said about 25% more price, probably nothing in quality. So I says, how many 50 year roofs do you install? Says he, ‘about 3 to 1 over 40 years. I tell them the same thing, but they just got it their heads that more money means higher quality.’
Turnout — now, that is genuinely useful to me. Thanks. I don’t know beans about roofing and now I know at least one more question to ask should I need a roof.
It goes back farther than the dot.bomb. Remember when MiniScribe was shipping bricks around in disk drive boxes and counting them as sales? This was in the late 1980s, just as the boom before last was bombing.
Booms invite fraud, and make it easy to hide because there are lots of real transactions going on at the same time, which provide lots of cover. You can bet that we have only begun to see the tip of the frozen fraudberg under the real estate bubble. As the froth melts away, more and more great stories will come to light to keep the media busy.
I predict a boom in investigative reporting, with a collateral boom in bulletproof vests and canned Mace. News cameras will have optional Taser mounts next to the viewfinder.
Investigative reporting will be a good job to have.
ahh the old “Crazy Eddie” scam of moving the boxes around as he high tailed it out to the Bahamas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crazy_Eddie
Like you said, the same scam over and over and over…. the United States is full of suckers.
“I live in silicon valley, and probably 90% of my friends were up to their necks in dot.com fraud back in the late 90s. You’d meet them at parties and when they got drunk they would all admit they were basically criminals”
You need to get new “friends”. Hang with dogs and get fleas.
I assume you saw the LEHC update Silicon Valley sales and prices in August. Lawler Economics & Housing Consulting seems to always have the most recent info!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Links, please.
Google didn’t turn up the website for LEHC.
sorry; it’s a subscription only newsletter. a lot of hedge funds and wall street guys get it, but it’s not public.
“my bad”.
“Fine interior finishes also drive up prices, says builder Scott McClurg, president of McClug Associates. Some granite countertops, for example, cost as much as $15,000, he says.”
I find this a bit hard to imagine, unless we are talking about one enormous countertop. Basic granite countertops at Home Depot are about $500.00, plus maybe another $1000 for installation. So how do you get from $1500 to $15,000? I guess you buy from a slick Ricardo Montalban type who tells you “it’s fiine Corrinnthian Maahrble “.
The granite came from the Himalayas. Its been blessed by a Tibetan monk. Very, very special.
Organic free range hand rubbed Himalayan granite, blessed by a Tibetan monk.
…don’t forget the Certificate of Authenticity
“I find this a bit hard to imagine, unless we are talking about one enormous countertop”
You might not have noticed these are 6000 - 8000 sq foot homes…the kitchen’s are probably more extensive than your basic Home Depot 10×10!
People buy the feel, not the value. A 20K Honda gets you to work like a 40K BMW. Same with granite countertops. Professionally made, professionally installed, professionally priced.
The $1500 price I quoted included professional installation. In fact, the installation costs twice as much as the materials. The difference in price is more like the difference between a 25K Honda and a $250,000 Ferrari.
Some people buy the price, not the product.
but let’s face the Ferrari is a much nicer ride…BTW..where did I leave my HELOC checkbook..:)
Price is what you pay, value is what you get, hehehe.
Most granite runs about $80/sqft installed, a bit more for bullnose or other edging. I’ve seen it as low as $45/sqft and as high as $150 sqft without the edging so it runs in a wide range. 15K would be some pretty extensive counter tops though. Probably lots of radius and other special cuts, etc.
The $1500 price I quoted included professional installation. In fact, the installation costs twice as much as the materials. The difference in price is more like the difference between a 25K Honda and a $250,000 Ferrari.
Some people buy the price, not the product,
Strip away the fancy trimmings and they’re just nuts and bolts. A screw in a Honda is every bit as good as a screw in a Ferrari.
Disagree; Ferrari’s are notorious chick-magnets.
No, free-spending fools are notorious check-magnets. For certain sorts of chicks, and only as long as the money lasts.
The Ferraris are just jewelry for these guys.
Waste of a great car.
SM Landlord is right.
Did you ever try to screw in a Ferrari? I submit that the experience, while not ideal, is much more pleasureable in the Honda.
In reference to this post!
Strip away the fancy trimmings and they’re just nuts and bolts. A screw in a Honda is every bit as good as a screw in a Ferrari
And nothing, but nothing, beats a 1977 Buick station wagon. You might as well be in a hotel.
a 1970 GM wgn - larger!
ok, here’s a little insight into the manhattan nyc market: of the nytimes listings in the $300K-$600K category (mostly studios and 1 bd), 108 are new listings. many of them are relistings after getting stale and being pulled for a few days. i get the smell of desparation and death. most of these are ripe for a 30% haircut off asking.
… those numbers are just for the upper west side of manhattan.
i’m sorry, i forgot — it’s different here!
sorry: ok, here’s a little insight into the manhattan nyc market: of the nytimesn 408 (left this out in last post!) — that’s a 25% increase in inventory in 1 week! — listings in the $300K-$600K category (mostly studios and 1 bd), 108 are new listings. many of them are relistings after getting stale and being pulled for a few days. i get the smell of desparation and death. most of these are ripe for a 30% haircut off asking.
Can anyone confirm or refute the gist of this? http://tinyurl.com/zo4pk
I mean the Sept 8 article on housing orders at http://tinyurl.com/zo4pk
The BusinessWeek FB story with the famous “Map of Misery” is running on Yahoo Finance this weekend. The Refi outfits should be getting bunch of calls next week, now that most folks are back from vacation, the kids are in school, and reality is setting in for the Fall.
http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/mortgagepain_1.html
Bought a new coffee-table book today — Business Week’s September 11 issue with the ARM-constrictor crushing the house. Had to pay $5 for it (choke) at Barnes & Capone, but it’s worth it. Wish I had bought, to complete the set, the one about 14 months ago with the happy-happy fellow hugging his ARM’d & dangerous two-story free ride to retirement.
That’s classic. Good conversation piece for when your Option-ARMed friends/family comes by for a visit…ha ha
Dont forget the May 2005 Fortune Magazine “Real Estate Gold Mine” (?)
Sir, put the book down and step away from the table!
Just kidding, but remember this if you have any recent owners coming over. I’ve forgotten myself on a few occasions, and regretted it.
Don’t forget Harper’s the New road to serfdom with the guy with a house tied to his back.
HAHA
David Lereah and Katherine Harris just smiling along.
http://harris.house.gov/UploadedPhotos/MediumResolution/98ae2022-d28d-42f3-9202-79ed0d0d115e.jpg
I guess you can say whatever you want when you have “connections”. It will be funny to see both go down with the ship.
We have openings at my company for “Cruise Missle Test Pilots”….no expericene necessary.
The great irony that few people outside Florida (and not enough within) know about: Katherine Harris (R) is running against Bill Nelson (D) for senator. Nelson is the long-time incumbent and seems to be popular in the state. Somewhere in the fray to date, an opponent accused Nelson of not passing a single piece of new legislation in the past (I think
years. As if that is a bad thing! We have too many laws already, dummies! We don’t need any more. There should be a law-limit, sort of like term limits — no new law can be enacted unless some old one is abolished.
Disclaimer: I am a registered, hard-core Libertarian — I favor neither party; all I want is less government.
ABC News has a mini series on the Real Estate Bubble….It’s Clinton’s Fault !!!
http://www.mortgagealmanac.com/articles/97-hounderclinton2ndterm.html
Of course, I think our current mania is global and easy-credit based. But it *is* rather concidental that our current boom started in 1997 . . .
hmm..that’s an interesting point.
That particular ‘bennie’ to homeownership is one that my realtor tried to highlight recently when I showed her how much more expensive buying is than renting right now. She said, okay whatever, but don’t forget when you sell you get to keep your profits tax-free! She went on to say that she has clients who use this as a way to make a living, that they buy a house every two years and sell it and live off the profits! I asked her then if she really believes in the current environment one could do that and she hedged with, well, maybe not the last two years, but still, she hates to let people worry so much about what other people are doing and missing out on the ‘benefits’ of homeownership. I stopped trying at that point…
Sorry, don’t know if this was posted already…
Only 3 O.C. ZIPs have sales gains
DataQuick latest report, out today, shows that August will certainly be the 10th straight month of year-over-year declines in sales volume. Only 3 O.C. ZIP codes — Villa Park 92861, Santa Ana 92701, and Seal Beach 90704 — saw sales actvity rise. Countywide yearly appreciation is down to 3.4% — and the median sits $13,000 below June’s record high. For the 22 business days ended Aug. 28:
Median price Change vs. ‘05 Volume Change vs. ‘05
Resale houses $690,000 +3.3% 1,980 -34.2%
Resale condos $460,000 +1.1% 846 -42.4%
New residences* $721,000 -3.2% 382 -17.0%
All homes $633,000 +3.4% 3,208 -35.0%
* Includes single-family homes, condos and converted apartments
At 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, September 13, 2006
in Room SD-538, Dirksen Senate Office Building, the
COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS
Subcommittee on Housing and Transportation and the Subcommittee on Economic Policy
will meet in OPEN SESSION to conduct a joint hearing on “The Housing Bubble and Its Implications for the Economy.” The witnesses will be Mr. Richard Brown, Chief Economist, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); Mr. Patrick Lawler, Chief Economist, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO); Mr. Dave Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Homebuilders; and Mr. Tom Stevens, President, National Association of Realtors.
Not to be cynical, as I hope something good comes of this, but…
The last two shills from the NAHB and NAR, I have heard enough from these clowns. Why cant the committe get Shiller or Jones (Ben) or Peter Schiff or someone with the balls to say The Emperor Has No Clothes. Arwen pull some strings!!! I am looking forward to this.
Is there anyway questions can be submitted by members of this blog??
I tried, but they just laughed at me. What’s a Blog? Do you read it in your pajamas? They don’t care. They’re 20-something poorly paid political grunts who live in exurbs VA and eat ramen noodles to survive. The FDIC guy and the OFHEO guy aren’t bad choices. And I imagine the homebuilder guy will be somewhat straightforward at this point. No, I wouldn’t give a fig for the NAR dude.
I’m assuming these things are broadcast on C-Span? If there’s some kind of schedule I’ll find out on the 13th and post it here. I don’t watch TV because my 2-year-old finds me an irresistible karate target that way.
Arwen,
If you happen to find out when/if this will be broadcast on CSPAN, please keep us posted. I’d like to watch. TIA
Mr. Patrick Lawler, Chief Economist, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO);
—————-
Related to Tom Lawler (from my post above)? Might not be a bad choice, after all.
Way off-topic, but as an SCE employee I just want to let all of our customers know that SCE cares!
Edison to postpone rate increase
Utility delays hike after some customers were hit with high summer bills.
Southern California Edison is proposing that regulators postpone until January a 6 percent residential rate increase that was initially to have been implemented last month.
The electric utility, whose service territory includes most of Orange County, held off implementing the rate hike after a combination of hot summer weather and two earlier rate increases caused some customers bills to soar in July and August.
Edison initially sought and received approval from the California Public Utilities Commission to delay the latest hike until November. Today, the utility said it is seeking a further postponement until January.
The postponement means that a new tier of higher rates for those residential customer who use the most power hasn’t taken effect. The delay could save some of those customers about $400 from August through December on their electricity bills, Edison said.
How about GS-2 rates next?
What do you call italian criminals? Mafia
what do you call chinese criminals Tong
what do you call WASP criminals? S&L presidents
Flashback joke from the last RE crash
Manhattanite,I do believe it is slightly different in Manhattan. I only say this ‘cuz I lived there for 3 years in a variety of unacceptable living situations. I did this because it is, after all, it’s NY friggin’ C. At one point, it was three couples sharing a 1 Bedroom for six months.
I believe it will be stickier than most markets. No, I’m not drinking the kool-aid. I’m just pointing out that people that go to NYC are willing give up a lot more than they would in many other places.
Problem is, they already gave and there’s nothing left to give.
That’s true betamax; one of the reasons I left. But I know that there was somebody right behind me that paid more for my place. I know the numbers will vary, but people WILL ALWAYS move there. Did anyone notice the runup happened after 9/11? That casts a little doubt on the “people won’t go there because of terrorism” theory. NY’ers just thought it was a good time to buy. That’s NYC. It keeps going even when things are bad.
I realize at some point that may change. I just think it’s going to be very sticky. There is real wealth in Manhattan and a legitimate land issue.
“I believe it [manhattan] will be stickier than most markets.”
i agree totally. i’ve been arguing all along on this blog that this will go very slowly — and even slower in manhattan. i still predict a gradual drift to bottom in 5-8 years, if the 90s were any indication.
It’s hard to believe it’s nearing 2 years since I started following this blog. *2 YEARS*. And now the bust has finally arrived. It is strange to read the blog now. Not better or worse, just different. Not sure why. Maybe it was because in the Fall of 2004 RE skeptics were looked upon as a small twisted cult of morons who “just don’t get it.” Now, just about everyone knows the truth about this real estate mania.
Have you used this to your advantage in any way?
I have. I sold a year ago and invested the proceeds and am now renting. My investments appreciated about as much as the apartment I sold, so thus far it’s a wash, except that I rent a bigger apartment, which I did need, and my money is much more diversified than if it were all in real estate.
Nope. Our house will be paid off soon (not soon enough), and I don’t plan on going anywhere. I never treated our house as an investment. It is simply a place to live and raise my family, and once I knock off that last $30k and burn that last mortgage statement in the BBQ it will be a cheap place to live. Paying a mortgage sucks. I am not sure why people are so comfortable knowing that they owe hundreds of thousands of dollars to some entity. My sphincter would pucker if I owed $400k to someone. That makes me weird, I guess.
And the truth shall set you free .
Anyway , I know what you mean Lou . No more weird stares by people who thought you were nuts . I just don’t know how the masses are going to react to the truth ,especially since they are stuck .
Lou,
I think it’s different because there are way more ridiculous posts about how young folk don’t work any more and Americans deserve to suffer. We’ve got some American Taliban in here pounding their heads towards mecca and praying for the apocalypse.
I am not praying for any apocolypse. I havent made any statements about young people not working and that Americans need to suffer. BUT, it is hard to ignore an economic apocalypse is coming, especially when this real estate market has set itself up for one. If you have spent any decent amount of time on this blog and kept up with all the facts on the housing bubble, it is not hard to predict that this bubble is going to cause alot of suffering. Sorry, but I didnt cause it, and dont wish it on anyone………it is just the way things are now and suffering looks like the way it is going to be for many.
For the last 2 years it has been exactly like sitting on the beach and suddenly watching all the water rush out into the ocean. Well, I may not see the Tsunami yet, but I know it is coming and I am sprinting for higher ground.
My comments from Schadenfreude come from years of being invisible…..of having my children not invited places, of having them not be asked to be part of the travel team, of experiencing people not even listening to the end of my sentences before moving onto the next person…..all because I’ve decided not to risk everything to turn myself and my family into “the beautiful” people. When I say Schadenfreude what I’m expecting is just to be treated like a human being again….and maybe like we’ve got something worthwhile to say after all. (I fondly remember the life I had 5 years ago before I moved to this materialfest and just want it back!)
I hear ya…it has sucked to deal with this issue. An in-law of mine, about 2 years ago now, was trying to convince us that we didn’t really need a downpayment to buy, and we just have have have to buy something because we are going to be screwing our kids forever if we don’t get in now. She ultimately gave up and said “well, some people are just ‘renters’ I guess”. So, it’s not just that if you hadn’t bought you weren’t “beautiful”, rather you were some odd breed demonstrably dimmer than the rest of the human race, sorta like a neanderthal.
It’s understandably at least a little fun, after that pain, to feel a bit like those neanderthals in the aflac commercial you know?
Ordering roast duck while the sapiens sapiens eat the crow. With ramen noodles.
cheers all!
Your generalizations and characterizations are both erroneous and offensive. Please STFU.
There goes my neighborhood!
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/202851740.html
I rent right next store for $900 a month! You’ve got to be crazy to pay that much to live here.
This is the best thing I’ve ever seen:
$1900 / 4br - 4 BEEDROOM 2 BATH LOVELY HOME IN LAKE ELSINORE
Reply to: FMALDONADOLENDING@HOTMAIL.COM
Date: 2006-09-01, 12:35PM PDT
I HAVE A 4 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN LAKE ELSINORE FOR LEASE OR SALE!
WILL GO FAST SO CALL TODAY AFTER 7 PM PLEASE I CAN’T AFFORD THE MINTUES ON MY PHONE IF YOU CALL BEFORE 7PM DURING THE WEEK! ON WEEKENDS YOU CAN CALL ME ANY TIME! 760-586-2359 ASK FOR FRED! WILL PAY FOR CLOSING IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO PURCHASE! WHY RENT? EMAIL: FMALDONADOLENDING@HOTMAIL.COM
http://inlandempire.craigslist.org/apa/201835064.html
Why rent indeed.
poor guy can’t even afford his phone bill he is so far upside down on his property. I mean poor in the literal sense.
Why rent Indeed!
“Mean old levy taught me to bitch and moan”
“I can’t afford the minutes on my phone” EXCUSE ME BUT WHAT THE FSCK ARE YOU DOING WITH A MORTGAGE ON A HOUSE???!!!111??.
Apologies about the outburst.
“WILL PAY FOR CLOSING..”
A good sign it is over priced.
Who would pay $1900 to rent in Lake Elsinore? Prices there are up by 4X since 1999 and you have a choice of commuting the Ortega(30 miles of dangerous hairpin bends) or sitting on the freeway for hours every day. I can see at least a 70% correction happening there.
I have been reading this blog these past few months and I find it very interesting reading. What I like most about this blog are the bonanza of links that illustrate what people are talking about; like the people who link to RE listings for $600k homes that sold just a few months previously for $400k. The educational level of this blog is ten times more up to date than what you would get reading the RE section of the New York Times.
I will now post my first comment in this blog, but I will keep MHT (my home town) of 50k residents in my southern state of residency anonymous because I do not want to put it on people’s radar screen for “affordable” housing and moving in here and further screwing up what is already a very screwed up traffic situation.
I have always wanted to own my own home, but I was never willing to pay what I consider to be astronomical prices. I am able to afford a conventional 20%/30yr fixed rate mortgage, but I simply refuse to pay these prices. I have watched as year after year these very old and very small cracker box homes in MHT kept moving up in price, now they are well over $100,000. I just can not see spending this much for something that would require tens of thousands of dollars just to bring it up to modern standards, and at the end of the day you still have a 1,100 sf house with unattached delapidated stand alone one car garage. And these are the lowest priced homes in good neighborhoods in MHT.
Moving up the price ladder you come across the recently built 3/2 houses with 2 car (the industry’s double speak for 1.5 car - not eberybody drives two MINIs) garages for $200k in subdivisons that are woefully inadequately accessed with narrow and dangerous two lane roads without a shoulder.
How can the salaries in MHT support these home prices? We have a UAW plant, those people make good money. But who else in MHT makes this kind of money? We have some other manufacturing in MHT - dog food factory, a detergent factory, etc… But manufacturing in MHT is very low paying. We have a “last tier” state college that is not known for anything and is only teaching kids social skills. MHT has got the ususal complement of big box retailers, and we recently added a Sam’s club. So I ask myself, are there enough Big Box store managers and UAW workers and college administrators to sustain all of this run up in prices? And who exaclty is buying up these 400k monstrosities with vaulted ceilings that cost a fortune in utilities? Is MHT a regional capitol of class action lawsuits and specialized health care so the place is swimming in lawyers and doctors?
Of course not.
Our yellow phone book has got the usual 25 pages of lawyer advertising; nothing different there for a town of 50k in America. The college professors keep warning the whole town of the coming doom of civilization if the state does not start paying them higher salaries.
I do know of a few people who commute to a large city of 500k people for good paying jobs but that is insanity. I have driven the Interstate during the rush hour between these two points and it is not fun. Maybe it is not the same bumper to bumper stop and go ordeal as it is in LA or New York or Miami, but it is bad enough for me. And besides, MHT is not really a bedroom community, there are not that many people who commute.
People in MHT are “programmed” to believe that your home will always appreciate in value, so it always makes sense to buy no matter what the price. The popular belief system is that when you sell you price it with a built in appreciation, plus 10 or 15 grand for wiggle room. The usual RE game.
People’s debt to salary ratio’s must be out of this world. All of the mass market restaurants on the main road are packed to the gills with customers on Sundays, and everybody is paying with credit cards. On weekend nights I see the college kids buying mixed drinks with credit cards. I am 20 years older and wiser than these college kids and I refuse to pay $7 or more for mixed drinks. These mixed drinks will eventually be paid for by their parents with interest and penalties for good measure, but these debt burdened home owning parents do not yet know this.
So I rent.
I rent in a smaller town that is 30 minutes away from MHT on the interstate. I pay $400/mo for a small 2/1 that is old but is in a good neighborhood. I hate the small kitcken and it’s formica countertop and the original windows and the triple track storm windows, but it is only $400/mo with a 1 year lease and after that you go month by month. The house is not “well insulated” as the owner has told me. There is SOME insulation in the attic, and the exterior walls are “well insulated” in that there are layers and layers of old paint and old siding on the walls, terminating with vinyl siding. (The stupid RE games people play.) But my point is that by renting just a short distance away on the interstate I have very affordable housing in a good neighborhood, and if the owner or local community gets me good and fed up enough then I will simply give 30 days notice and walk out of here with my credit still intact.
But you are not building up any equity! The people who tell me this are not building up any equity either, they are so busy trying to get what ever equity they have out of their home. The fact is that I AM building up equity. I have a dividend paying portfolio and my dividend income is growing by double digit rates every year. It is not now much of an income, but I will let you do the long term math. It never requires any maintenance, and It is not at all tacky without any new furniture or carpeting in it. Since it will never need any insurance, I will never have to give my social security number to low paid clerks at insurance outfits to get insurance quotes. The local school board has no idea what my portfolio is worth, and it would not matter since they have no way of taxing it. When I sell shares I pay a maximum 20% long term capital gains tax federal, and I do not need to pay an attorney to help me with the sale nor an accountant to figure out my taxes. (I can divide by 5, and I don not even have a college degree.)
If RE tanks as hard as so many bloggers here say it will, then maybe in five years or so I will buy my first home in the state and city of my choice. I will be buying it to live in it and do whatever I want as far as kitchen cabinets or bathroom fixtures or color of carpets and so forth. I will not be buying it as an investment, (although I will feel cheated if it does not keep up with inflation.) But until then, I am a much happy camper renting.
Thank you for reading my comment, and may God bless you all
You sound pretty sharp to me. Just keep doing what you are doing and dont let anyone tell you otherwise.
i wonder how many people have pulled their house off the market, just to try again next summer.
I just ran into a lovely woman who was hoping to sell her house last summer, couldn’t do it (there were upwards of 15 other houses for sale in the same small recently-built sub! and this is the midwest, not flipperland.), and decided to take it off and put it back on next summer. The inventory is spiking to new records here in Ann Arbor MI, and still I suspect that some houses that lost their for-sale signs are unsold and the owners will try again later.
Add that to the growing numbers of people whose ARMs will adjust in the next couple years, and man this temporary could be a loong haul…