September 11, 2006

‘Gullible Buyers’ Thought ‘Party Wasn’t Going To End’

The Longmont FYI reports from Colorado. “Colorado leads the nation in foreclosure rates, and Weld County leads Colorado. Weld housing officials blame the phenomenon mostly on gullible buyers who accept risky home loan packages including adjustable-rate, no-money-down and interest-only mortgages. Whatever the reasons leading to the spike, home values have dropped.”

“In the second quarter of 2006, one of every 66 households in the county was in some stage of foreclosure. ‘Wages did not keep up with the appreciation of homes,’ said Matt Revitte, a housing broker in Greeley. ‘So many buyers bought into a multitude of loan products thinking the party wasn’t going to end. But it happened. It always happens.’”

“‘They can’t pay it because they haven’t received the promotions or raises they were counting on at work. They can’t sell their house because too many similarly desperate people have also put their houses on the market, and at super-low prices in their rush to unload. ‘Now panic starts to set in,’ Realtytracs’ Rick Sharga said. And with missed mortgage payments, here comes the bank.”

“Some say the county is overbuilt and that local governments should issue fewer building permits. Others argue developers wouldn’t still be building unless they believed their homes would sell soon. The market will take care of itself, they say. In any case, Weld County residents need to start buying homes within their means, said Tom Teixeira, director of the Greeley/Weld Housing Authorities.”

The Denver Post. “The Colorado and U.S. economies appear to be gliding to a soft landing heading into 2007, although a slowdown in consumer spending could cause them to sputter, economists said Thursday at a gathering of construction-industry workers.”

“Cliff Brewis, an economist with McGraw-Hill Construction, said the economy appears stable, although portions of the construction industry are poised for a slowdown. He said the residential market has clearly softened, although ‘we don’t expect it to fall off the shelf.’”

“Metro-area home prices dropped and the number of sales rose as the peak homebuying season came to a close in August, according to a report released Thursday. ‘Everybody who had to be in a home before school started is done,’ said Gary Bauer, an independent real-estate consultant in Denver. ‘Now comes a cooling-off period.’”

“Bauer attributes the price declines to pressure from new-home builders, who overestimated demand and have had to offer large incentives and price reductions to move their inventory.”

“The inventory of unsold homes, which reached a record 31,989 in July, fell about 1 percent to 31,664 in August. Bauer attributed that to unsuccessful sellers pulling their homes off the market with the start of school.”




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83 Comments »

Comment by flatffplan
2006-09-11 12:08:56

when was CO’s boom?
1997 to 2002 ?

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-11 12:15:05

I believe it was the telecom boom/bust, like north Dallas, and the airline problems have hurt the local economy.

Comment by rentfornow
2006-09-11 21:25:34

And sun micro is laying off workers and United and…

 
 
Comment by boulderbo
2006-09-11 12:15:32

1997-2000, market stalled with the tech crash, never fully recovered.

update from massachusetts:

we received a letter from the banking commissioner this morning delineating the reasons for the 11 firms being shut down on friday. the letter goes on to put the responsibility of the stated income loan on the individual mortgage broker and the investor, requiring them to use any and all means to verify the income level of the borrower if it appears unreasonable, threatening the license of the lender or broker if they do not. interesting that the wholesale investors are still touting 100% stated, 90% stated option arms, etc. it was the state regulators that finally dropped the shoe. i will forward the juicy stuff in the letter shortly.

Comment by boulderbo
2006-09-11 12:19:29

TO: The Chief Executive Officer of Each Licensed Mortgage Broker, Mortgage Lender and Each State-Chartered Financial Institution

SUBJECT: Recent Enforcement Actions and Violations

Recent regulatory action taken by the Division which has been well chronicled in the media and violations found by examination personnel during recent on-site examinations necessitate this industry letter reminding entities of required lending practices as well as the entities’ responsibility for their mortgage employees and those individuals acting under their direction. Entities and particularly licensed mortgage brokers and lenders are again warned that it is their license as well as the management of the entity that is at risk of severe regulatory action provided in statute for the practices of any individual acting under their license or charter. The Division will not tolerate and will take immediate action against an entity which allows or is complicit in allowing inaccurate or unreliable if not fraudulent information and documents to be placed into the mortgage system.

Many but not all of the most egregious violations have involved reduced documentation loans. Such mortgage loans have existed for many years and typically do not require the verification of a borrower’s income. (For the purpose of this letter, reduced documentation mortgage loans include stated income loans, NINA (no income, no asset) information loans, NIV (no income verification) loans, no ratio loans, and low and no documentation loans.) In the past, these loans were limited in their availability and utilized primarily by certain consumers who, among other things, had excellent credit histories, could make sizable downpayments and had other assets. Over the last few years, with the continued development of the subprime market, reduced documentation mortgage loans are being more frequently marketed to individuals that marginally qualify for mortgage credit and do not have other mitigating factors as described above.

With homeownership becoming increasingly difficult, especially for first time buyers, the mortgage lending industry has responded by offering a broader array of loan products. However, such products must be coupled with the basic tenets of a legal transaction and sound underwriting practices. For any mortgage product, prudent underwriting necessitates that the level of documentation required be commensurate with the risk profile of the borrower and a common sense analysis of the information provided. If concerns arise, due diligence dictates that additional documentation be obtained. Entities:

Have a responsibility to ensure that stated income is accurate. Entities should have procedures in place to review stated income to ensure it is reasonable given the borrower’s occupation. If applicable, an entity must utilize procedures to verify employment.
Must have underwriting policies that ensure all risks associated with reduced documentation mortgage loans have been identified and that adequate controls are in place to ensure sound lending practices and full compliance with all applicable laws and regulations as well as in accordance with all secondary market requirements.
Must ensure that third parties involved produce loans that are adequately documented and free of fraud or other problems and adhere to the institution’s policies. Once a single problem is detected, an entity must take immediate action to investigate and to terminate the relationship with that third party provider if appropriate.

 
Comment by boulderbo
Comment by boulderbo
2006-09-11 12:23:59

forget it rest of letter:

The Division, through its examination force as well as its investigation of consumer complaints, will continue to take immediate and severe action against an entity for any mortgage loan transaction including a reduced documentation loan upon finding or obtaining any evidence:

That income was intentionally overstated by the entity;
That borrowers were encouraged to overstate income;
That consumers were steered from a conventional, full documentation loan to a reduced documentation loan because the consumer did not have the income to qualify for a full documentation loan;
That an application was processed where the entity had reason to believe that the income provided was not accurate or the source of the income originates from individuals not listed on the application; or
That an application was processed where the entity had reason to believe that the borrower’s income was insufficient to repay the loan.
The Division cannot over emphasize the seriousness of the matters discussed herein or the recent regulatory action taken. Violations of law have the effect of undermining the entire mortgage industry including all constituent parties. These practices can:

Ruin a consumer both personally and financially;
Destabilize neighborhood home values;
Adversely impact the purchase and sale of real estate;
Put an entity at significant risk both reputationally and otherwise; and
Affect the willingness of investors to purchase loans.
The severity of the violations and enforcement actions taken significantly call into question the existing statutory framework’s lack of licensing mortgage loan officers and mortgage loan originators in the Commonwealth.

Moreover, such practices necessitate that the Division implement other measures to address these matters. You will be informed of those additional actions.

Should you have any questions with regard to this letter, please feel free to contact Chief Risk Officer John M. Prendergast at 617-956-1534.

Very truly yours,

Steven L. Antonakes
Commissioner of Banks

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Comment by seattle price drop
2006-09-11 18:43:12

Boulderbo-

Thankyou for posting that letter for all to read.

I think the most fascinating thing about it is how plainly spoken it is , no “specialty speak”, the biggest idiot can understand what Mr. Antonakes is getting at.

Go Massachusetts! Hope this idea spreads like a wildfire.

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2006-09-11 20:30:36

Please get Steven L. Antonakes to make a phone call to the other state banking commissioners…

 
 
Comment by mrquoi
2006-09-11 12:38:45

The term “reasonable” sure can be stretched a lot of ways.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-11 16:23:46

Oh you mean that loan where the 26 year old waiter made 200k a year and was going to owner-occupy that house in Arizona when he lived in California where his job at Donut-hut was .

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-09-11 12:09:18

be gliding to a soft landing heading into 2007

___________________________________________________

Huh?

Comment by Getstucco
2006-09-11 12:17:29

Colorado skiers will tell you that gliding sometimes describes rather steep downhill movement.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2006-09-11 13:19:38

Most jets, when all their engines have failed, have the glide ratio of a brick.

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2006-09-11 13:04:47

- 1 They can’t sell their house
- 2 because too many similarly desperate people
- 3 and at super-low prices in their rush to unload.
- 4 ‘Now panic starts to set in,’ here comes the bank.”

Don’t worry yourself …

“The Colorado and U.S. economies appear to be gliding to a soft landing

Comment by ajh
2006-09-12 02:22:54

Except the landing strip appears to be a little short. Looks like we may overshoot slightly … into the Colorado river … which follows an erosion gully (the Grand Canyon) at this point in its course …

 
 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-09-11 12:12:52

what area has reverted to the mean by the greatest margin ?
Cape Cod ?
Denver
??? opinions

Comment by boulderbo
2006-09-11 12:48:44

own real estate in both, median in denver is $215,000 up maybe 10% from 2001. median on cape is close to $400,000, up from $140,000 in 2001. lots of reversion room in the bay state.

 
 
Comment by Brandon
2006-09-11 12:13:42

Just in from nearby Boise, Idaho:

Total home sales for August down 27% vs. August 2005.
New construction sales for August down 35% vs. August 2005.

http://stats.intermountainmls.com/StaticReports/REPORTS/Ada/2006/August-2006-Ada.pdf

No slowdown in Idaho.

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-09-11 12:32:29

Is Tom Coleman building there yet? He sold out to one of the national home builders in Bakersfield a year or so ago and then proclaimed Idaho would be the next pot of gold.

Comment by Brandon
2006-09-11 12:45:30

I don’t recognize the name- DR horton recently came to the area. Builders may want to stay away because the state is “pot of unsold new construction”.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-11 12:13:42

Related links:

‘By the time Boulder County Sheriff’s Deputy Ed Zamora shows up at the door of the house you’ve been living in, something has already gone pretty wrong in your life. Zamora is one of three deputies charged with enforcing eviction orders granted by judges in Boulder County. And his workload is increasing. ‘We’re just too busy,’ Zamora said recently as he oversaw an eviction in Longmont. ‘We’re getting a lot more evictions.’

The Rocky Mountain News:

‘On Border Street, Longtime Eddie walks to the house in foreclosure. Weeds are taking over the yard. He picks up the newspapers in the driveway and dumps them in a trash can. The two empty houses stare at each other from across the street.’

Comment by Chip
2006-09-11 13:14:03

I think that the “Borders” article is very, very well written. The columnist is a natural storyteller.

 
 
Comment by ChillintheOC
2006-09-11 12:14:56

“Gliding to a soft landing” and “could cause a sputter” - For a minute there I thought I was reading an NAR brief. I guess the economists didn’t want to spook the gubernatorial candidates present!

2006-09-11 13:20:53

Except gliders don’t have engines to sputter. The sputtering must be the sound you make when you choke on your own vomit.

Comment by Pen
2006-09-11 14:04:33

Actually the sputtering comes from the end opposite the vomit.

 
 
 
Comment by Catherine
2006-09-11 12:15:38

Matt Revitte, the guy quoted at top, also had this to say:

I don’t see this thing slowing down anytime soon,” said Matt Revitte, a broker with Pro Realty Inc., who specializes in foreclosures. “We haven’t seen anything this ugly in easily 15 years in the sheer anemic nature of this market.”

As of this week, there were 1,086 foreclosures in Weld County, a 42 percent jump from the same time last year. In all, 2005 registered 1,500 foreclosures.

Though that’s hardly as high as the volume of four of Colorado’s other large counties, Weld’s foreclosure rate, based on the number of residences, dwarfs the big boys on the block.

Looking at real-time numbers, there is one foreclosure for every 71 residences in Weld. In terms of severity, it’s not quite the highest in the state. Adams County, with 2,450 foreclosures as of June 30, may hold the title with a foreclosure for every 50 homes. Arapahoe County tops the heap in volume with 2,570 foreclosures as of Thursday, but it comes out to one foreclosure per 77 residences.

Previous reports had Weld at top of the foreclosure rates, surpassing Adams, but those were based on residential numbers from the year 2000 and do not reflect the phenomenal growth the counties have seen in that time.

For the last year, the culprits to the problem have been the creative financing loans requiring no down payments, zero interest mortgages or adjustable rate mortgages. Weld may just be seeing the beginning of a foreclosure spike, as more ARM loans adjust to their higher rates in the next few years.

But the economy hasn’t helped, either.

“There are a number of factors that are converging. It basically started with low interest rates and making more-risky-than-necessary loans, and people beginning to be squeezed by higher energy prices and not being able to sell their houses and walking away from their loans,” said northern Colorado economist John Green.

Sara Allen, director of Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Northern Colorado and Southern Wyoming, said she’s noticed another interesting trend in her offices where many residents on the brink of foreclosure visit.

The number of Weld residents seeking financial counseling in Larimer and Boulder counties has increased in the last year by 11 percent.

“What this told me is that these people work (there) and live in Weld County where home are less expensive,” Allen said. “They’re barely making it as gas prices go up.”

Revitte said the Weld market is in a major correction at present. Home appreciation rates are flat and there’s an oversupply on the market. At present, homes sit on the market for an average for 12 months before they sell.

It also doesn’t help that the foreclosed homes are competing with homes that are on the regular market. Green agreed after looking at RealtyTrac.com’s listings of homes owned by banks. The Web site states that at present, banks own 547 foreclosed properties in Weld and that there were 798 homes up for auction.

“The number of properties up for auction competes with those people trying to sell their homes and typically a home would go through auction cheaper than through a broker,” Green said.

He added that such competition may keep sellers in limbo longer, making them walk way from loans they can’t service. “It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Revitte agreed, adding, “This could be a house of cards that continues to implode.”
http://www.greeleytrib.com/article/20060721/BUSINESS/107210096/-1/REALESTATE

 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-09-11 12:15:51

“The inventory of unsold homes, which reached a record 31,989 in July, fell about 1 percent to 31,664 in August. Bauer attributed that to unsuccessful sellers pulling their homes off the market with the start of school.”

Do these inventory figures include new homes? Because the area NE of the Springs (east of I-25) appears to be covered with a sea of recently built McMansion-style tract homes that would rival anything you would find around PHX or LV. And something tells me that more than a few of these might constitute new home inventory or else investor-owned homes (aka future inventory). Maybe I was tipped off by the large number of For Sale signs I saw last weekend on virtually every residential block I visited.

Comment by denverKen
2006-09-11 12:55:25

Most new homes are NOT counted in Denver’s multi list service. Occasionally a new home builder will list a unit or two in multi list to drive buyers to the development, but it’s not usually done.

Comment by climber
2006-09-11 13:43:06

You’re right, and this is how they do it. The list it with the cheapest price of any house in the development, then they take the largest number of bedrooms, bathrooms and garage spaces they plan to build and put that information in the particulars. Then they add some text at the bottom that the price is the “base” price and to call them for details. There is usually a line drawing of the nicest house for the photo.

 
 
 
Comment by Walker
2006-09-11 12:22:39

This video (courtesy of Calculated Risk) should have been required viewing before any of them got a loan. Note the “but what if you don’t get a raise”. Very appropriate, according to these reports.

 
Comment by Gary Reilly
2006-09-11 12:23:00

But New York is different!

http://www.curbed.com/archives/2006/09/11/curbed_pricechopper_virtually_all_of_99_gold.php

And these places are still massively overpriced. Sad to say, it’s going to be a very hard landing for all of the NY Metro markets. You wouldn’t believe the capacity coming on to the market in Brooklyn, Queens, Jersey City, Hoboken, etc.

40% down from here by 2009.

Comment by Chip
2006-09-11 13:37:28

Looks like a school of fish turning.

Comment by Death_spiral
2006-09-11 14:33:11

Great analogy!! LMAO!

Comment by ajh
2006-09-12 02:37:42

“I’m having FISH for dinner.”

Bruce the Shark

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Comment by txchick57
2006-09-11 12:24:42

There was a guy who used to post on here who had a link to some nice places in Colorado Springs. They were really high though. If you’re still here, update us on how those are looking these days.

Comment by Mort
2006-09-11 13:40:39

I’m not that guy but I have some news from “the springs”. I advised a person close to me to sell. They went down to what they bought for in ‘00 and finally sold. They almost had to bring $$ to the table and I said if you have to bring 2k, do it. It (the deal) went through this last June. I called later to razz her and she said (sic) yeah, we are in foreclosure central, I knew I had to sell. BTW, carry costs for another year would have been 24K. If you live in CO I say: “do whatever it takes, but unload that albatross now!”.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-09-12 18:49:35

http://themartys.springssearch.com/browse/IDX1_ViewRecord.asp

Txchick,

I’m your guy. Most of the places I posted links to are in Colorado Spring’s prestigious Old North Side. There’s a lot of beautiful old houses, but most come on the market way too high and languish for months — a few of them have been sitting for over a year, even with significant price cuts. Most sellers are still in denial and the buyers are in wait-and-see mode, so the standoff continues.

 
 
Comment by Brandon
2006-09-11 12:25:47

“‘They can’t pay it because they haven’t received the promotions or raises they were counting on at work. They can’t sell their house because too many similarly desperate people have also put their houses on the market, and at super-low prices in their rush to unload. ‘Now panic starts to set in,’ Realtytracs’ Rick Sharga said. And with missed mortgage payments, here comes the bank.”

I bet the “mortgage moms” think its the governments fault!

Comment by Gary Reilly
2006-09-11 12:41:54

Partly it is. The cheerleader in chief’s message to everyone after 9-11 was, paraphrased, its patriotic to spend! This is an ownership society!

Combine that with the Fed slashing the funds rate to near zero, and what was a housing market on the verge of correcting turned into a full-blown asset bubble.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-11 16:38:02

But I don’t think the President was saying to go out and buy a house at 10X’s yearly salary .I myself went out and bought a couple pairs of socks .

 
 
Comment by mrquoi
2006-09-11 12:43:47

It’s anyone’s fault except hers! (Or the mortgage dad, depending on which was the numbskull who pushed for the new house/heloc for toys while the other one was saying, “Well, honey, you know this money is still *borrowed* money and we’ll have to pay it back someday.).

Comment by manraygun
2006-09-11 13:11:49

The first word in Gary’s post is PARTLY.

 
 
 
Comment by NurseLiz
2006-09-11 12:43:29

As the post states before, this mess basically began with 9-11-01. Today I turn “5 years old” as it was a defining day in my life and others like me who were up close and personal witnesses to the devastation of the attacks. I happened to be trapped at the Pentagon that morning, stuck in the traffic as the plane flew directly over my car and crashed directly next to me into the Pentagon. We were close enough to feel the heat from the explosion and it’s true that your life really does flash before your eyes at such a moment. So, perhaps this 9-11 we could not only remember those who went before us but think of those after us and try to make a difference by mentoring those younger than us and consulting the wisdom of those older than us. Peace be with each of you….

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-11 12:49:20

One of my best friends works for the Social Security Administration across the street from the Pentagon. She is still a basket case to this day. I was on IM the morning of 9/11 w/a friend in One WTC who is gone now. I never took his name off the buddy list but it makes me sad every day I log on and see it.

 
2006-09-11 13:23:04

Nurse Liz, your story should come as a big surprise to the French. The don’t believe a plane hit the pentagon. Unfortunately, they have American counterparts as well.

Comment by jp
2006-09-11 13:30:46

??? You mean the country with the newspaper that had the large headline “Nous Sommes Tous Américains”?

Perhaps there is confusion of the french opinion of 9/11 with the post-9/11 reaction…

 
Comment by NurseLiz
2006-09-11 13:32:34

imbéciles!!

Comment by gadfly
2006-09-11 14:47:53

Least they had the forsight to “pass” on the whole Iraq fiasco. Freedom fries my @$$….

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Comment by Polestar
2006-09-11 13:43:33

I knew a couple on the first plane that hit the WTC. Amazingly, several co-workers also knew people on the same plane. I was watching a little of the 5 year coverage this morning on the news and just couldn’t deal with it. It is still so raw, right under the surface, and I wasn’t faced with the carnage directly like you were.

Your sentiments on how we should act in our lives mentoring others are well stated!!

 
Comment by fiat lux
2006-09-11 15:06:40

Peace to you too, Liz.

I lost a friend in Tower 1 and the memories of that day will probably never completely stop hurting.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2006-09-11 12:48:44

promotions ? raises ?

What are these strange words you use ? Why are these regional newspapers saying the economy is poor when nationally we are being told it’s great and getting better ?

 
Comment by denverKen
2006-09-11 12:52:08

“In any case, Weld County residents need to start buying homes within their means”

ah…does that even need to be pointed out? Have we, collectively, as a nation completely lost our common sense?

The problem is, house prices are TOO HIGH! They were, in part, driven to these heights by loan products that should never have been available.

also, I loved this:
“The Colorado and U.S. economies appear to be gliding to a soft landing heading into 2007″ in one article, and “In the second quarter of 2006, one of every 66 households in the county was in some stage of foreclosure” in the second article.

what WOULD be a hard landing?…one out of 3 houses in foreclosure??

Comment by Polestar
2006-09-11 13:38:08

Yes, for all those who say ’soft landing’ I’d like them to be asked that very question. “What would constitute a hard landing?” They’d probably squirm, but if they gave an answer, keep it handy for their next interview. It won’t be long before we’re there.

And as far as home owners not getting the raise or promotion they wanted, what kind of promotion were they thinking they would get that would increase their salary 2-3x? Get real. They weren’t thinking that at all, but it is better to tell people that than admit you did an idiotic thing.

Comment by Pismobear
2006-09-11 14:57:51

Promotion, raise, that sounds like would’a,could’a,should’a or the Griswald in X’mas Vacation when he didn’t get his bonus to pay for the pool he already contracted for. Wait til you see it in your pay check before you spend it!!!

 
 
Comment by OCDan
2006-09-11 13:40:28

I don’t even know where to begin with this one.

First, off DON’T EVER COUNT ON RAISES or bonuses when figuring your monthly nut. Didn’t your parents ever tell you, “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.”

Second, don’t get me started on the morgage moms. Let them all rot as far as I am concerned. For the ones who bought within their means and something catastrophic happened, I have nothing but pity for you. However, for you clowns who bought 850K homes with just daddy’s hourly wage of $30 plus some overtime, don’t come looking for any handouts baby. You wanted the McMansion, the Escalade, the Benz, the private school for Hailey and Tyler, along with the obligatory piano and baseball lessons, the once in a lifetime around the world cruise on the Queen Mary II, and eating out French and Italain every night. BOO HOO for YOU! Suffer and pay the piper now and I’ll be sure to get your house for pennies on the dollar when this whole house of cards (pun intended) does collapse on you and your mortgage moms siblings.

Third, I know I keep hammerin’ away on this, but all these experts drive me nuts. Didn’t any of them see this coming. It may not be alright to constantly consume, but if you pay cash I don’t have as much of a problem with it. Fine the goods are paid for. However, with so many using credit, from the feds to Joe Sixpack and his wife, where did the so-called, self-proclaimed experts think this whole economy was headed, the penthouse? More like the outhouse.

Fourth, is there any honest man left? Do all these bank officers, lending officers, appraisers, etc. have any shred of credibility? i know it is buyer beware, but the whole industry is going to take a big black eye on this one. Stated income passes for a mortgage nowadays and the experts didn’t see this coming. What world where they living in? Maybe that is where we should all move to (just kidding).

Lastly, I see very little good coming out of this. I still believe we are in for a massive depression, which will make the Great one look like a picnic at DisneyLand, in this country because of the massive debt. You can only keep selling the debt for so long before so much of it becomes due and you are forced to pay something. There will be very little good because the greedy will still be greedy and the mortgage moms will not be told, only 2 meals perday and coldcuts at that. They are used to their eating out too much. As had been said by many more wiser people than me, keep the powder dry, some cash on hand, some small increments of precious metals, and food supplies on hand. Lastly, pray for the best ’cause it will get ugly.

Comment by Davey Jones
2006-09-11 17:05:08

“a picnic at DisneyLand”

Don’t know about that. Maybe you should pick another place. Got a hunch the lawsuits and boycotts will close this place down.

 
Comment by Grant
2006-09-12 15:37:44

You go, OCDan. Except it’s “Hayley” with a “y”. That’s the trendy spelling. Sad thing is, there’s a big ‘ol government bailout coming to rescue the idiot Mortgage Moms and Dads from their stupidity. And who will pay for it? Responsible people like you and I.

 
 
Comment by climber
2006-09-11 13:48:56

Yes, house prices are too high, but houses are also too big. It’s exceedingly hard to find a reasonable sized and priced house in a new development these days, and if you do find one it’s got 4500 square foot lot. Where are the kids supposed to play? I wonder if anyone has looked into tiny yards as a contributer to childhood obesity. My yard is 100′ wide and 150′ long, the kids can get up a full head of steam before bouncing off the back fence and coming back again. Playing tag is a real workout for me too.

 
 
Comment by ACCROYER
2006-09-11 13:40:42

The more I read here, the harsher the bubble is getting. I’m seeing it first hand now, people losing homes ( Oregon). Just talked to friend of mine who told me a few months ago that Oregon would never have a bubble. They just asked me to loan them 1,500 for their mortgage. It seems they are in foreclosure and bought the house in April this year.

Comment by sm_landlord
2006-09-11 13:48:53

Holy Moley that was fast! Four months from purchase to foreclosure? How did they pull that off?

 
Comment by hd74man
2006-09-11 13:56:36

Man, when you hit a friend up for $1500.00 to make your mortgage payment you are in deep DOO DOO!!!!

Comment by ACCROYER
2006-09-11 14:30:44

Their mortgage payment is 3900 a month for a 1400 sq. ft. house.

Comment by rms
2006-09-11 21:46:01

“Their mortgage payment is 3900 a month for a 1400 sq. ft. house.”

Time for the “FB” branding iron!

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2006-09-12 06:14:47

What kind of retard pays $3900 for a 1400 sq ft house?

For that money, you can rent a beautiful 2-bedroom (probably 1000 sq ft.) in prime locations in Manhattan!

These people are so stupid, it’s hard to believe!

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Comment by david cee
2006-09-11 15:06:43

Make them an ex-friend fast….cause when the get thrown out of the house, where did you think they might want to stay till they get back on their feet? Really, you just want to stay for a couple of days in my house!!!

 
Comment by Happy_Renter
2006-09-11 17:16:21

Please, please, please, for your own sake, do not “loan” them $1,500. Whatever amount you “loan” them you will never see again.

If you do “loan” them money, you must understand that it would be a gift.

If you do gift them money, what good will it do? Are you going to gift to them $1,500 every month? Of course not. They are going to loose the house, and their credit is going to ruined. All you will be doing is delaying the inevitable by 30 days.

I can understand the pressures that people may feel when a friend or relative is in need. About 15 years ago I loaned my oldest brother $6,000 so he could move his family into a bigger home. (He has a big family.) I had no idea my brother would wind up stealing from me since he is a fundamentalist christian who goes to a church where they throw their hands up in the air and start yelling and screaming and shouting and are filled with the Holy Ghost. I thought that somebody this Holy could never tramp his kid brother like this, but he did. All these years he drove new cars - not luxury cars - but new cars, while I drove junkers. I cringe to think about all of the money he has given to the TV Evangelists; that is really my money.

You live and learn.

And another thing. These people are not your friends. Stop believing that they are your friends. These people are like drunks who went on a drinking binge and now want you to pay for their consequences. They will make a fool out of you, and with time they may even find some perverted logic to blame their troubles on you.

Just my $ .02

Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-09-11 19:01:47

I had no idea my brother would wind up stealing from me since he is a fundamentalist christian who goes to a church where they throw their hands up in the air and start yelling and screaming and shouting and are filled with the Holy Ghost.

Christianity is a sin against consciousness.

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Comment by Incredulous
2006-09-11 19:41:26

I’m crying, I’m laughing so hard. I’m sorry your brother stiffed you, but your rendition of events is hilarious. It’s always the holier-than-thous who end up getting arrested for collecting child porno or stealing from charities. Remember Jimmy Swaggart? And those tough guys who yell about “faggots” all the time. Guess what . . . . . . .

 
 
Comment by ajh
2006-09-12 03:15:50

This is why I went politely ballistic 20 years ago when my mother wanting to drag me in to yet another investment RE deal with her and one or other of my brothers, but without official documentation of who provided what.

OK, I was (and still am) in the fortunate position of being able to trust my brothers and mother totally when it comes to loans. However, to be blunt, what about wives and in-laws if relationships go sour? (Even de-facto’s these days.)

“Oh yes, Mr Opposition Lawyer, well actually there’s a hundred thousand or so owed to the rest of the family on that investment property in X’s name. Ummm, no, we don’t actually have any loan documents to back that up.”

Cue to the rare sight of a lawyer doubled up with laughter.

I unwound or formalised the 3 deals with which I was involved, and clearly told my family why which lead to another couple of loans getting notarised, but it wasn’t until one of my brothers got taken to the financial cleaners by a vindictive ex-defacto that mum really understood that some people will straight out lie for money.

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2006-09-11 15:47:18

So, let me get this straight. Their stupidity now becomes your chance to subsidize (facilitate) them? If you give them a penny then you would also deserve to get hit with a crowbar.

 
 
Comment by OCDan
2006-09-11 13:47:16

ACCROYER it seems that you are one of those priviliged few. I had a buddy who always asked me you do know who lost their job or house when things would get bad in the country or the area we lived and I could never give him a positive. Well, now that it hits home to you, someone on the board, I don’t get a very warm feeling.

 
Comment by hd74man
2006-09-11 13:55:05

Wages did not keep up with the appreciation of homes,’ said Matt Revitte, a housing broker in Greeley. ‘So many buyers bought into a multitude of loan products thinking the party wasn’t going to end. But it happened. It always happens.’”

Yeah, sure Matt…And you only tightened the gallow’s noose on all those FB’ers you sent to some sleazebag L/O before the trap door sprung.

 
Comment by mikey
2006-09-11 13:57:39

The Housing Landing will be as graceful a landing as a 300 pound water ballon gliding straight IN from 1,200 ft with a tailwind…spare us the Propaganda !

 
Comment by hd74man
2006-09-11 14:00:05

Others argue developers wouldn’t still be building unless they believed their homes would sell soon.

The left hand never knows what the right hand is doin’ in a development boom.

What banker wants to let it out of the bag what he’s doin’ for business. Dipshit muni’s lag on the build permit data, and BOOM!!!
Market’s overbuilt!!!!!!!11

Some thing in the ‘90/’91 bust. Projected absorbtion rates busted and then came the glut.

It was always the other guy who would be left holding the bag.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-11 15:13:25

…..That consumers were steered from a conventional, full documentation loan to a reduced documentation loan because the consumer did not have the income to qualify for a full documentation loan;…..

No shit. This is the whole crux of the problem. But can the FB prove it - THAT is the real question. Was it the realtwhore or was it their plain stupidity?

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-11 15:31:37

This whole thing is just too good to comment on all of them. Soccer moms be DAMNED. Hubbies will collapse from the work pressure. The companies will just give them a “thanks for the work”, you are now FUCKED layoff notice. Little Johnny and Susie will scream when they can’t go to piano, dance, baseball, karate, skiing, and boating lessons. Mommy will look at the unused kitchen and say, “you wan’t me to do what in there?”.
As for gov’t and industry accountability, they operate their own fiefdoms and don’t give a flying fuck what anyone else does.
Sorry if my ranting might offend some, but I am so fed up with the mess that all of these assholes have made and lack of responsibility people take for their own stupid actions/decisions. They want to have someone else to blame.

Comment by hd74man
2006-09-12 05:09:30

need2LC

-Great comments…Tell it like it is brother!!!

 
 
Comment by Portland Mainer
2006-09-11 16:25:24

9/9/06

Housing market: More selection, fewer sales

By Peggy Roberts

The area’s hot real estate market of the past few years has cooled with high inventory and increasing interest rates leaving sellers trembling and buyers cautious.

The latest quarterly figures from the Maine Real Estate Information System show that between May 1 and July 31, the number of existing single-family homes sold in Cumberland County decreased 10.38 percent from the same period in 2005, from 1089 units last year to 976 units this year. In addition, statewide, sales during the month of July decreased 16.19 percent.

The median sales price for an existing single-family home in Cumberland County showed only a slight rise in the past quarter, compared to the same period in 2005, from $253,000 to $255,000. And real estate brokers say the inventory of homes on the market is way up.

Chris Karageorge, of Beacon Appraisal Co. in Scarborough, has been appraising property for 15 years. He said the latest figures reflect not so much a downward trend, but rather an adjustment in the market from recent inflated prices.

“Ultimately, the market in general is not really going down,” he said. “This is really more of a normal market that what it has been in the last few years.”

Karageorge said he began to “see the signs” when Hurricane Katrina hit a year ago. People began to panic when the storm caused gasoline and fuel prices to spike. And with interest rates creeping up during that time as well, home buyers adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

With so many homes for sale these days, Karageorge said buyers must wade through greater inventory, which increases the time homes spend on the market. And with the knowledge that they have such a large selection from which to choose, buyers with an accepted offer are much more likely to walk away if the seller is unwilling to fix any problems revealed by a home inspection.

In today’s market, Karageorge said sellers must price their homes appropriately; they can’t look at what their neighbors’ homes sold for a year ago.

“I think what’s happening is most homeowners have unrealistic expectations,” he said. “They’re demanding of the Realtors, ‘I want to list my property at this.’ But it has to be relevant to the marketplace.”

Kathie Hooper is a Realtor with Re/Max by the Bay in Portland, and has been in the business for more than 10 years. She said it’s important for buyers to price their homes realistically. And that means agents must look at more recent comparisons – similar houses in the area that have sold.

“Comps that are 6 months old are too old to use, so we’re looking at the last two to three months,” she said.

While Hooper has seen the selling time increase from two weeks to five months, she emphasized that if a house is priced well and located in a good community with a good school system, it will sell.

But brokers are working harder for their paychecks these days. It used to be that Hooper had only three or four homes in a certain price range to show a buyer. But with today’s high inventory, she recently was able to show a buyer 30 homes in his target price range and community.

Hooper said aggressive marketing, which includes brokers’ tours and luncheons, is key to selling a house in this market. Once brokers have seen a property, Hooper said, they’re likely to remember it and bring appropriate buyers there first.

Though some in real estate are hesitant to say it, Carol Thorne, a Realtor with Agency 1 in Scarborough, acknowledged “it’s a buyer’s market,” evidenced by more inventory than demand.

“I think this is a cyclical thing,” she said. “I’ve been in real estate for 20 years and I’ve seen this cycle before. It does mean the sellers that have to sell will be seeing some drop in their asking prices, but then it has a way of leveling itself off.”

Diane Moyer, of ReMax Riverside in Brunswick, has also witnessed this cycle. A real estate agent for 23 years, Moyer said she expects it will take three to four years for the market to settle down again. She, too, sees buyers looking at more properties before making a decision. Some have even chosen to wait to see if prices will continue to drop.

“It’s the spectacular homes that are selling quickly,” she said. “Homes that are the least bit out of spectacular are sitting.”

Last Sunday, Kathleen Scott, owner of American Dream Realty, held an open house for one of her properties. The Nonesuch River home in Scarborough, originally listed for $429,000, had been reduced by $30,000 after about a month on the market.

Scott said she sees the biggest drop in prices occurring on homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range, with new construction prices less likely to drop. But she said she believes waterfront property will always hold its value.

Although Hooper, Thorne and Moyer said they do not like the gimmicks that some brokers use to sell houses – offers such as a free TV or a one-year new-car lease at closing – Scott said these incentives may have their place. Scott, a snowbird, spends her winters in Florida, where she said real estate gimmicks are the norm.

“I think that people who don’t leave the state of Maine don’t notice what’s happening elsewhere,” she said. She added that Maine traditionally follows the trends that begin in other states.

Karageorge sees the Maine real estate market as a great value in relation to that of surrounding states.

“I don’t know that we’ll have any big hit like the late ’80s,” he said. “If you look at other states in New England, Maine is still really a good deal.”

Peggy Roberts can be reached at 781-3661 ext. 125 or proberts@theforecaster.net.

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Comment by hd74man
2006-09-12 04:36:10

Beacon Appraisal Co. in Scarborough

Rubber stamp number hitters…

 
 
Comment by Bob Dobalina
2006-09-11 19:40:07

“Some say the county is overbuilt and that local governments should issue fewer building permits. ”

I got mine, now stop building so it keeps its value!

 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-09-11 20:26:32

“Cliff Brewis, an economist with McGraw-Hill Construction, said the economy appears stable, although portions of the construction industry are poised for a slowdown. He said the residential market has clearly softened, although ‘we don’t expect it to fall off the shelf.’”Never take anyone who says “poised” seriously. Ever. :)

 
Comment by Tad
2006-09-12 17:58:41

Dear Folks,
When is this Colorado real estate slowdown going to hit Western Colorado? I live in Mesa County (next to Utah) and things are pretty frothy. How long does it take for something like this to cross the Rockies and pay us a visit in Grand Junction?

 
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