September 13, 2006

‘Price Cuts Are Getting Aggressive’: Twin Cities

Some housing reports from the Twin Cities. “The housing market in the Twin Cities continued to cool in August, with the number of sales in the metro area dropping by 27.2 percent compared to a year ago. Trends in listings, sales and home prices also signaled that the market will continue to favor buyers, according to reports from Realtors’ organizations.”

“The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors said that, in September, it expects there will be 8.12 homes on the market for every buyer. In the metro area, the number of closings in August dropped 27.2 percent compared to the same period last year. More dramatic declines occurred in Anoka and Sherburne counties, which saw decreases of 33 and 22 percent, respectively.”

“Pending sales also dropped by 23.2 percent in August compared to a year ago. ‘We still have more listings on the market right now than we’ve ever had,’ said Jeff Green, president of the North Metro Realtors Association. ‘But it appears that some sellers are deciding to wait a little longer before putting their home up for sale.’”

The Star Tribune. “When Debbie Tufts put her Eden Prairie house on the market in February, she figured she’d easily net $30,000 on the sale. Never did she imagine that, after three markdowns, she’d sell it for less than she owed and have to write a $4,000 check at the closing last week.”

“‘It’s just a waiting game,’ she said. ‘It’s a vicious cycle that you get trapped in and you don’t know what to do.’”

“Buyers, (realtor) Sheri Fine said, ‘feel like they have bargaining power and feel that they can do whatever they want.’”

“Although prices are flat and sellers are having to slash prices, sales are still relatively strong. Closed sales so far this year are down about 7.3 percent compared with the five-year average, a decline of about 3,000 transactions. But that’s no consolation to Ken Iverson, who is trying to sell a $599,900 house in Menomonie, Wis.”

“Like other sellers, he has resorted to incentives to help draw attention to his house. He’s offering to give a brand-new fuel-efficient car and free gas for a year to encourage prospects from the Twin Cities. He said his 5,800-square-foot house, which has granite countertops and hardwood finishes throughout, is being sacrificed in an effort to downsize.”

“‘I think we just really need to consider any offers,’ Iverson said. ‘We’re willing to negotiate.’”

“‘Two years ago it was fun,’ agent Jaso Simonson said of the current market. ‘If a house was worth $180,000, you’d put it on the market for $199,000 and an offer would come in at $192,000. Now, if you think it’s worth $180,000, you’d put it on the market at $179,900 and just pray for an offer.’”

“The market is recovering from a new-construction binge that has left builders trying to unload unsold inventory. During August, there was a seven-month supply of previously owned homes, compared with a more than nine-month supply of new houses. The inventory glut is creating opportunities that buyers haven’t enjoyed since the late 1990s.”

“Tufts, the Minneapolis woman who recently sold her house at a loss, is trolling the market with her agent in search of a duplex or fixer-upper that could be had at a bargain price. ‘Money seems to be the only thing that talks now,’ Tufts said. ‘Because the price cuts are getting pretty aggressive.’”




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61 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-13 05:06:35

‘New housing construction has dropped by more than 20% in southeastern Wisconsin for the year through August. In the Milwaukee metro area, new home starts are running 21.6% behind last year as of the end of August. In the Kenosha-Racine area, starts lag 20.2%.’

‘Tufts, the Minneapolis woman who recently sold her house at a loss, is trolling the market with her agent.’

A glutton for punishment?

Comment by Bob_in Ma
2006-09-13 05:15:43

Yeah, really. Hard to believe she wouldn’t be a little gun-shy. One thing you have to say about Americans, there optimism knows no bounds.

Comment by John
2006-09-13 05:30:14

Yes, and that Midwestern brand of optimism is particularly dogged too! A little further down I-94 in Chicago the market is overflowing with condos built in the worst possible locations imaginable - next to the ‘el (subway), surrounded by arterial streets. But, they all feature granite counter tops - so that makes everything alright!

Burn, baby burn - real estate inferno!!!

Comment by snake charmer
2006-09-13 07:07:35

I envision that scene from the “Blues Brothers” movie, where Elwood’s apartment is next to the el tracks and has trains roaring by all night.

Jake: How often does the train go by?
Elwood: So often you won’t even notice it.

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Comment by jmf
2006-09-14 01:55:00

great!

the best line in the film is when they play in texas (i think) and the owner of the club asked

“do you play western or country?”

 
Comment by Ken
2006-09-14 05:20:39

Bob’s Country Bunker!

 
 
 
 
Comment by GeorgeSalt
2006-09-13 05:17:21

It reminds me of the Nasdaq crash in 2000. I knew some folks who believed in the adage “buy on the dips” and they threw away even more good money on tech stocks that summer.

Comment by flatffplan
2006-09-13 05:38:55

well, LIErah said it’s a dip, and temporary
just like 2000
and then 2001-02
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-09-13 06:19:25

That was my thought, except I would put it more baldly. Dumb bitch.

 
Comment by Eastofwest
2006-09-13 06:58:06

…and yet the homebuilders are up again??? 15% in the last 5 days….
Crazy …yet we can assume it’s the “election bounce” Gold down,dollar up,and housing up…

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=kbh,dhi,hov,phm,hov,bzh

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-13 07:18:25

Hedge funds jamming shorts in homebuilders and semiconductors. Wasn’t too hard to see that one coming and tried to warn you all a month ago.

 
 
Comment by Ken
2006-09-13 07:37:08

Southeastern WI is cooling. Minneapolis is officialy a bubble. Detroit is imploding. Many northwest Indiana market are hurting but the idiots here in Chicago keep saying everything is OK here. I need the people on this board to come to Chicago for a fun weekend of hitting people over the head with reality.

 
 
Comment by Mystry62
2006-09-13 05:15:48

“‘Two years ago it was fun,’ agent Jaso Simonson said of the current market. ‘If a house was worth $180,000, you’d put it on the market for $199,000 and an offer would come in at $192,000. Now, if you think it’s worth $180,000, you’d put it on the market at $179,900 and just pray for an offer.’”

Awwww I feel sorry for an agent who actually has to work for a living (insert eye roll here)

Comment by ajh
2006-09-13 05:39:30

As requested. :roll:

 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-09-13 05:25:43

MENOMONIE?

First of all, that’s 70 MILES away from Minneapolis. We’re a sprawling place, but we’re not SoCal!!!

And $600k in Menomonie (think farm country)…
Plus it’s in Wisconsin, which has much higher property taxes than MN

hahahhahahahahahahahahhahaaahhahahah

 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-09-13 05:31:30

A lot of these places they’re talking about are in the second and third ring suburbs. (Eden Prairie as example)

These places saw spectacular gains in the last 5 years. the land was converted from Farmland, to McMansions. The problem: the commute (by Twin Cities standards) sucks. Some of these places are 1 to 1.5 hours away from downtown with traffic, about 45 minutes without traffic. Add in SNOW, (which we actually don’t get very much of) and on those days it can be 2-3 hours.

When property was booming, THIS is where the developers went to build the McMansions, because they could pick up farmland for cheap, REZONE it (suddenly it is “worth” so much more) and then plop a house on it and sell it for oodles.

I spoke with a developer about this, and they said : Where else can we mass build, except for out here? Other places, it costs too much just to build one or two houses, we make money only if we can do a development.

But now people are realizing that they are STUCK in the middle of suburbia 1 hour plus from their jobs, and gas prices aren’t helping. (although gas is down over a dollar a gallon this week).

Plus, the building just keeps going and going and going, further and further out.

In the city, the overbuilding hasn’t been with SFHs (far from it). It’s the condos. they’re everywhere.

thus, I see the 2nd and 3rd and further suburbs as well as all condos getting hit the hardest.

they will of course then pull the city SFHs down with them, but it’ll take time.

Comment by CincyDad
2006-09-13 06:06:46

House Inspector…. are the jobs in the Minn/St Paul area still centered in downtown or are they moving out?

Here in the Cincinnati area we are seeing a lot developments 1 hour out of downtown as you described. However, over the past 10 years a lot of jobs have moved out of downtown to the out-belt (I-275) and beyond, so those new developments are really only about 15-20 minutes from major job locations (unless you company moved the opposite direction from your house).

Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-09-13 06:15:23

It’s a mixture.

most of the jobs are still in Downtown Minneapolis (if you measure by density), then St. Paul, but there are several job centers metro wide. the problem: they are all over the place- predominantly along the 494/694 loop around the metro area, or along 394 which goes westward. One job “center” is bloomington (where the Mall of America is), one “center” is in the southwest corner of 494, one is in St. Louis Park on 394, and so on

The problem in this day and age, is this: How many dual income families (since a large percentage of people in these exurban/far-suburban areas are dual income) can live in an area where BOTH of their jobs are easy commuting? Answer: it’s hard.

My own personal example:
I live in Minneapolis. work in St. Paul (12 hrs away, counter-commute). Wife works in St. Louis Park which is 10 miles in the other direction

If you live central, you’re likely to be closer to ALL of the job “centers”. If you live in the far suburbs, it’s likely that one or both jobs is far far off.

Plus, the roads way out there are not equipped to handle the traffic. you have to weave around a bunch of cul-de-sac twistiing suburban sprawl forever, then get to a 2 lane road, then to a highway with stoplights, then on a freeway and so on… I’ve been to developments where it takes 10-20 minutes just to get out of the development! (due to bottlenecking… only one entrance to the place with a STOP sign, and everybody leaving for work the same time)

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-13 06:20:35

Minneapolis is such a cool and beautiful place. I love it there. 3 months out of the year.

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Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-09-13 06:30:18

ROFL!

Yeah, I thought that too…

I actually LOVE it here 8 months of the year. (I hate Nov-February). The other 4 months are hell for me. Very cold. Not much snow (last year my grass was green all winter long… frozen green but green)

But my salary is double here than what I could get in Cal, my COL is half. And I love the greenery and bike trails and arts and all the city has to offer.

the winter is a big sacrifice. so you either learn to get outside (no way not me) or you do what I do: fly to warmth 1 week per month (or more) in winter.

I probably spend more time at/in the ocean than 98% of Californians.

I see more theatre and go to more museums than 99% of New Yorkers.

To me, cheap reliable air service has revolutionized our country. You can eat breakfast in New York. lunch in Chicago, and dinner in San Francisco all in the same day, then wake up the next morning in Sydney.

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-09-13 07:23:30

I’d live there in a heartbeat but when the temperature drops below 70 degrees, I’m hosed. It would be hard to find a more progressive place outside of California though.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2006-09-13 07:42:47

I’ve lived there off and on over several years. Back in 99′ I had an apartment at the Calhoun Beach Club and I loved being able to walk out my door and be at the lake as well as 5 minutes from Calhoun Square. The winters about killed me though. I agree with you about the arts although I’m disappointed in how the downtown area has progressed (or not) over the years. The last couple of weekend nights I went to that area I regretted not having my Uzi with me.

 
Comment by Joe Schmoe
2006-09-13 09:45:44

MN is a really magnificent place. Really magnificent. Friendly, sophisticated, and beautiful.

 
 
 
Comment by Bob_in Ma
2006-09-13 07:07:29

We used to live in Washington, DC, and that’s what happened there, all the growth was on or beyond the beltway. And while it’s true the new housing was also close to new office parks, just as you say, people change jobs, businesses move, and the house you bought 10 mins. from your job is now an hour and half from your new job 180 degrees around the beltway. We new a number of people in that situation.

We lived in town, where public transportation was great and, ironically, traffic seemed much lighter. You could be in a stand-still in the burbs at noon on a Wednesday, meanwhile traffic was flowing fine on all the main drags in town.

House Inspector Clouseau, one thing that makes the long, dark winter months tolerable is having a fireplace. We put in a little addition last year and added a fireplace (real wood-burning.) It cost maybe $9,000, with local natural stone surround, offers hours of enjoyment and easily increased the home value more than we paid for it. I read the fireplaces are the only feature that at least pay for themselves at resale and around here, there’s no question about it.

Last winter, we bought ourselves cross-country skis for Christmas, from then on, it snowed about 6″ total. ;-)

 
Comment by SLourdes
2006-09-13 07:35:00

I’m another Twin Citiean- it seems like the jobs are mostly in the cities, or in the first ring suburbs. For example, I live in West St. Paul and commute to Edina- aboout 15 miles and 30 minutes in traffic. My previous job was in Eagan (a much nicer commute, but not a nicer job!)

 
 
Comment by Mr. Fester
2006-09-13 10:33:50

Obligatory weather comment here. I don’t believe in perfect climates, to each his or her own (sun,rain, heat, cold,etc.). What I do not see happening, is ANYONE enjoying commuting 1-1.5 hrs in snow and on black ice (or the blazing Phoenix heat for that matter). A simple mechanical breakdown could be a real bummer in such a situation. Silly.

 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-09-13 05:39:29

Update (I guess it’s on topic here)

The rehabber (I’m calling him rehabber now, because he did such good work, including windows, furnace, roof, etc) I’ve spoken of before has finished the house across the street from me. It’s phenominal

He did some market research, realized that he can’t get the price he wants from it. He’s renting it out.

He’s actually a smart guy, I talked with him. He got a 10/1 ARM (not neg am). with the 10/1 ARM he’s able to rent out the property for the PITI payments. since he put so much work into it, he feels it will only need minimal maintenance the next 5 years.

He says overall it’s a loss. But he feels he’ll lose less AT THIS POINT IN TIME by renting than by selling.

I looked over some of his calculations, and there are some assumptions (there always must be), but they looked reasonable anyway.

He’s a full-time rehabber, and owns 10 rentals in addition. It sounds as though he is reworking his employment plans right now.

Anyway, looks like he caught a falling knife, but sounds like it was a dull one. he was lucky/skilled enough. (he got the house for a song, due to divorce)

Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-09-13 07:10:43

With boomers down-sizing housing may still be rusting in 10 years.

 
 
Comment by Craven Moorehead
2006-09-13 05:52:45

“Buyers, (realtor) Sheri Fine said, ‘feel like they have bargaining power and feel that they can do whatever they want.’”

Yet another instance of Realty Clowns communicating not-so-subtle resentment towards buyers unwilling to pay Flip This House!! prices. Such quotes are becoming more frequent in stories posted here.

Again, Realty Clowns, sellers and”‘economists” think it’s all fine capitalism when sellers rip off buyers, but when the tables are turned, the language is hostile and rife with the suggestion that the market is now broken.

Once again, F the Realty Clowns, and I’m sure an agent like this will be out of business in a few months and replaced with an eager, experienced realtor who understands that she should have respect for both sides of the equation.

Comment by DinOR
2006-09-13 06:20:00

Craven,

So true. Every time I read a comment like that there is so much bile and seething resentment boiling just beneath the surface you almost have to go outside and get some air.

Well, at the peak of the market sellers were listing their properties (flips etc.) without making the property available for inspection! I guess that was o.k? Not long ago a house close to me was listed FSBO and a full price offer was brought to the table. B/c it was made within a day or so of “listing” the seller felt he may not have asked enough and withdrew (then “re-listed” at a HIGHER price!) and THAT was o.k!

Now these clowns can’t seem to fathom why there is so much resentment on our part? They’re the ones that up’d the ante and made what used to be a one of the happiest moments in a family’s life and turned it into a hardball “venture capitalist” negotiation from hell! Now they want to revert back to the “old system”? Screw ‘em!

Comment by FutureVulture
2006-09-13 08:50:08

B/c it was made within a day or so of “listing” the seller felt he may not have asked enough and withdrew (then “re-listed” at a HIGHER price!)

I had something similar happen with a rental. I watched the house sit on the rental market for several months, at the same high-looking price. When I needed to move I went to see it, and it was a piece of s— so I wasn’t interested. But before I could say so, the sales agent informed me the price had gone up by 20%, coincidentally on the exact day I showed (very slight) interest in it! A couple months later it was still sitting, and the price had been lowered again.

Greedy twit.

 
Comment by gav
2006-09-13 09:22:07

DinOR - of all the rants I read and enjoy here daily, that one was particularly well crafted. You are dead on about the VC negotiation from hell and many future happy moments will no doubt also be ruined for families living in penury to pay that huge mortgage…

 
 
 
Comment by panicearly
2006-09-13 06:11:06

OT but check out this article everyone, talking about being really out of the loop.
South Korean cash flows into U.S. real estate
Monday, July 10, 2006
By Dongjin Park, The Wall Street Journal

Kim Eun Jung is getting ready to buy a second home — 7,000 miles away from her family’s primary residence in Seoul, South Korea. She is about to sign a contract for a two-bedroom condominium in Boston that Realtors say will cost about $750,000.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06191/704780-28.stm

Comment by Craven Moorehead
2006-09-13 07:16:50

Boston isn’t such a great example in this particular case. There is always clueless foreign money coming into the city to buy condos so that rich kids can have a crash pad while they “study” (party)here.

This seems to go on regardless of conditions. When I went to college in Boston in the early 90’s, every foreign student had a condo and a BMW M3 that mom and dad paid for. These people are paying lip service to “investment” — they don’t care, actually, and they’ll dump the condo at whatever loss when the kid leaves town and moves on to the next money-spending activity.

 
 
Comment by Loafer
2006-09-13 06:15:04

“Although prices are flat and sellers are having to slash prices…”

Is it me or does this sentence not make any sense at all? Either prices are flat, or prices are falling. Not both.

What a muppet.

Loafer

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-13 06:25:34

‘Metro Detroit homeowners are skidding into foreclosure at nearly three times the rate as they were last year as a slumping economy, falling home values and risky mortgages leave more household budgets in the red.’

Comment by Pete
2006-09-13 06:35:23

Who would want to buy a house in Detroit anyway? That has a lot to do with it.

Comment by builderboy
2006-09-13 07:15:41

I cannot ague with that fact [why would anyone want to live in Detroit?] Thing is, home is home……. Even Dorothy couldn’t wait to get out of Oz and back to Kansas?

 
 
Comment by builderboy
2006-09-13 07:10:14

I just talked to a banker friend of mine that I used for construction loans in the past, and the guy has always been a straight shooter. Told me it is a blood bath going on now, and he does not think it will flake out for 3 to 5 years. Said there are a lot of loan offices [sharks?] closing up shop.

Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-09-13 07:12:38

The realtor I rented my house from (agent for long-time owner) had a 3-5 year timeframe for the bust as well.

Comment by builderboy
2006-09-13 07:34:45

I have been working in San Jose CA area now for 6 months and in that time have noticed a difference talking to people about RE and economy. When I got here, told them about our home is losing value, work and wages have sucked for some time in Detroit area, and they looked at me like I was from the Moon or something.

Said to me at that time, Well, it won’t happen here.

Now I have notice a little edginess if you want to talk RE.

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Comment by UnRealtor
2006-09-13 06:34:20

Check out the new show “Million Dollar Listing” to see realtor parasites in action leeching off the wealthy in Malibu, California.

These useless middlemen parasites make $75K+ for a few hours (50?) worth of work.

On realtor had a buyer that was a friend, and was revealing seller secrets to this buyer. It was never disclosed to the seller that the buyer was a friend of the realtor. All part of the realtor “code of ethics.”

Comment by UnRealtor
2006-09-13 06:35:32

Website for “Million Dollar Listing”

http://www.bravotv.com/Million_Dollar_Listing

Comment by arroyogrande
2006-09-13 08:29:41

Watched the preview on line. As they used to say in The Valley, “Gag me with a spoon.”

 
 
 
Comment by Kent
2006-09-13 06:48:43

OT but check out this article everyone, talking about being really out of the loop. South Korean cash flows into U.S. real estate Monday, July 10, 2006
By Dongjin Park, The Wall Street Journal. Kim Eun Jung is getting ready to buy a second home — 7,000 miles away from her family’s primary residence in Seoul, South Korea. She is about to sign a contract for a two-bedroom condominium in Boston that Realtors say will cost about $750,000.

Back in 1991 when I was in grad school at the UW I had a roommate who was a real estate agent and who worked full time for Asian clients only. Not Asian-Americans, but Asians as in investors from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore who were buying up houses and apartments around the Seattle metro area sight-unseen. The sheer volume of money from Asia flowing into the Seattle real estate market at the time just astounded me. I guess if they bought in the early 90s they probably did fine. I’m not so sure about foreign investors getting into the market today.

 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-09-13 06:57:03

The Statements from the Witnesses in the Senate Hearing (this morning - Banking Committee) are out. Just click on the PDF files by their names.

http://banking.senate.gov/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Detail&HearingID=236

 
Comment by NVMojo
2006-09-13 06:59:04

Well, I got to experience “seller’s ire” yesterday. We moved to the Reno area about 6 weeks ago for a job after selling our house in a gold mining boom economy from listing to close in 4 weeks with a shocking profit. Reno’s market has flattened and dropped. Since we are new, we decided to rent for a year and figure out if we want to stay.

Was getting my haircut by a sweet young lady who, upon realizing we lived near her house that was for sale, proceeded to rip into “renters” who live in the new apt complex we are at. Said how we were all wasting our money and now is the time to get a real deal on our home purchase, blah, blah, blah. Finally she admitted that her 3bdrm, 1 bath, modest older home near us had been on the market for 6 months, no offers at $325.000. and her agent is “suggesting” that they drop the price this past week as buyers are just “sitting like vultures on the sidelines and renting”.

She couldn’t have been older than 28 or so. Trying to sell her house to move in with her future husband in his house. I feel her pain but don’t blame me, honey!!!

Comment by GeorgeSalt
2006-09-13 07:15:05

Between “seller’s ire”, (recent) “buyer’s regret”, and the “foreclosure blues” I suspect the mood in this country is going to be pretty ugly for the next 2-3 years.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2006-09-13 07:15:47

Sit and spin, honey, sit and spin!

Yep, we need to bail your stupid “investment”. No thanks, we’ll buy it from the bank after foreclosure.

As for NVMojo, you need to find a new place for a haircut. I wouldn’t want an “angry seller” to take off a piece of my ear because I was a renter! LOL

 
Comment by Pat
2006-09-13 07:34:45

How does a hairstylist in her 20’s have a 325k house? Inheritance?

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2006-09-13 07:53:58

Exactly!

I make craploads more than a hair-stylist, and that would be the edge of my affordability.

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-13 13:21:06

I make 4-5X what hairstylists do and I would NEVER do a 300+ house….
Maybe I am crazy… I only bought 1.8 times gross income at the time Since then, my income has close to tripled so my mortgage is now a cake walk - comparatively. But that said, I would have foreclosed if I took on much more than I did…. That or had some very bad times. And that was not in the middle of a huge recession.

I must say, before this blog, I never knew the extent of the foolishness. I cannot imagine how anyone actually deluded themselves into these untenable situations.

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Comment by auger-inn
2006-09-13 07:55:49

Buy it in 01′ at half the price? Just a wag.

 
 
Comment by jp
2006-09-13 07:38:25

Bitter jealous sellers! Aahhh, what goes around comes around.

 
 
Comment by SLourdes
2006-09-13 07:55:00

It’s been funny to me, reading this blog and the news stories coming out, that it doesn’t seem to jive with what I’ve been seeing and hearing about in my personal life here in the Twin Cities.

A friend of a friend just found out she’s pregnant with twins, so she and her husband started house hunting (they already have one toddler, in a two bedroom apartment). Anyway, they found a house they liked, put in an offer, and ended up in a bidding war that they lost. Now they’re probably going to rent a bigger place for awhile.

I’ve heard a lot of talk on this blog about shops and restaurants being emptier, but I’m not seeing much of that here. Had a 45 minute wait at Chevy’s on Friday night, and the Mall of America was more crowded than it was during the holidays last year.

A few of the townhouses and condos in my neighborhood recently sold for their asking price. These are pretty affordable between $150,000-$199,000, though. The $599,000 and the $429,000 houses on my street, though, have both been reduced and still sitting on the market, now at $579,000 and $419,000. People I’ve talked to say it’s these “high-end” houses that are not moving at all around here.

Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-09-13 09:52:31

SLourdes:

I agree with much of what you’re saying, but I’ve noticed a significant amount of variability on micro market here. I live in Mpls near Lake Harriet- and the slowdown JUST began the last week of July or so. high end properties that were selling in days are JUST STARTING to sit. I posted elsewhere that I only see a maybe 2-3% reduction in prices anywhere if that.

However, we ARE “different” from the coasts in two huge respects. 1) For the most part people here can afford their homes. (high wages relative to house prices) and 2) to my knowledge, few people did interest only or negative amortization loans.

Thus, we don’t have the major discrepancy that we’re hearing about on the coasts. (here a teacher and an electrician can afford a pretty nice home on a 30 year fixed)

we also didn’t have the major speculation. (”everybody wants to live here” just doesn’t jive well in this climate!!!!)

That said, we did have a pretty major boom, and we ARE a bubble market, and I expect a fallout, even thoug it won’t be as severe as elsewhere.

And there was MAJOR speculation in condos. Also in the McMansions in the suburbs.

I’ve said it several times, I think we’re in for serious pain, but really it’ll be the Condos and suburban McMansions, since that’s what was overbuilt in the end, and that is the only stuff that is seriously out of fundamental value. (the rest is only a little out of fundamental value).

But make no mistake, as the condos/suburbs fall, it’ll pull down value around it too…

Just my 2 bucks worth

 
Comment by Minneapolis
2006-09-13 12:08:01

I can add a lot of first hand experience with the condo market in Minneapolis. House Inspector does an excellent job covering the overall housing market for the area, and I agree with a lot of his observations. In the last year I’ve been through most of the condo developments repeatedly, talked to a lot of agents and association board members as I’ve searched for a condo.
The condo market really overbuilt, and sales pretty much stopped at the beginning of the summer. Most places I visit now, the agents are actually surprised to get an interested visitor. So inventory on condos in particular has gone through the roof as new developments have been finished. Through this summer a number of other developments continue to go ahead with construction, often without 50% sold. A good example would be Eat Street Flats. They’ve broken ground, and have maybe 20% of the units presold. The agents told us they had to be built by next summer due to a contract they signed with a CVS pharmacy that is leasing commercial space on the first floor.
Even in buildings that were built and finished a couple years ago, we often find that about 10% of the units never sold, and are still for sale by the developer. These are now often competing with individual resellers in the buildings. Having talked to a lot of people about this, the main incentives for resellers appears to be they can’t afford the unit they thought they could, or a pregnancy or life change is causing the sale. A lot of these are also turning to rental, to try and cover their expenses, but often at ridiculous prices compared to other rentals in the area.
Sellers are truly getting desperate at this point. I have been called by a number of developers agents after visiting the properties asking me if there is anything they can do to get me to buy now. Their offers still amount to little more than closing costs, or 3-5k in incentives though, not enough to off-set the risks.
Condo prices in general are way above rent prices. I rent a nice 1 bedroom in an old building in downtown Minneapolis (Loring Park area), for 800 a month. Most new developments want 220-250k for a one bedroom condo; frankly the granite counters aren’t that nice.
On top of this, condo’s have been completely overbuilt in the 400K+ range. Around the new Guthrie theatre, and in other areas, these are the units we see massive amounts of remaining unsold, waiting for the retiring baby boomers to appear.

 
 
Comment by jag
2006-09-13 08:19:48

“These are pretty affordable between $150,000-$199,000, though”

slourdes, that’s the key. In Boston the decline from peak prices is between 30 and 50%. In 25 years I’ve never seen so many for sale signs (and that includes a pretty big bust period around 1990).
Why? The rise in prices was simply a phenomena of very low rates. Incomes, around here, have been fairly stagnant. People saw a great “opportunity” to own when rates feel but didn’t realize that this factor was the LAST AVAILABLE factor to pump up an “investment” bubble that was way overdue for correction.
Few people could afford the prices prior to the run up and now, with rates back up, there is nothing to sustain the price level. Buyers are “exhausted” and once the psychology entrenches in peoples mind that homes AREN’T an “investment” anymore (but just a place to live outside renting) then prices have to fall to an “affordable” level.
That’s reflected in your experience at the “low” end. But the buyers of these “affordable” condos are going to lose money too. They’ll just loose less total; they’ll likely lose something close to the same percentage as the decline in “median” prices.
Your friend of a friend is lucky, they just don’t know it yet. Tell them to put in REALLY low ball offers on properties they might like to live in (for a long time), offers that won’t be accepted, and then wait. When the sellers call them back saying let’s talk, tell them that the markets changed and offer even less. Yes its “insulting” but guess what? Some of those sellers will take you’re offer if you are the only buyer in town, however “insulted” they may be.

 
Comment by John Law
2006-09-13 09:09:58

so much for Minni not being a bubble.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-13 13:24:54

Please do not make fun of Detroit. I fear it is America’s first dead city. Any decent jobs have long flown the coop. And any remaining are few and getting fewer everyday.
The whole downtown area is Beirut and that makes me sad. Forget about the housing bubble. The city was already gone - the camel’s back was already broken.

:cry:

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-13 17:51:46

“Please do not make fun of Detroit. I fear it is America’s first dead city.”

Deader than NOLA???

 
 
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