September 18, 2006

A ‘Neccesary Correction’ For Arizona

A housing report from the Arizona Republic. “Metropolitan Phoenix’s housing market is “somewhat” vulnerable to a real estate bubble. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, because if home prices dip a little, affordability will climb and the area’s growth has a better chance of continuing.”

“That was Joel Kotkin’s message to the Valley’s real estate executives last week at an annual real estate seminar. It wasn’t the typical real estate forecast citing past figures and predictions for how rosy metro Phoenix’s future will be. Speakers took a hard look at where the Valley was headed and what could halt its long-cherished growth.”

“Unlike many national experts, Kotkin knows Phoenix and not just the older cities of the East and Midwest. ‘Lower home prices are a necessary correction for Phoenix,’ Kotkin told the crowd.”

“As the real estate market slows, causing some cooldown in the overall economy, he said Phoenix must stick to the basics that made it grow: affordable housing.”

“Many in the audience and on the panel with Kotkin agreed. Grady Gammage, real estate attorney and a firsthand observer of Arizona’s evolution, said that for years, people have debated what’s behind metro Phoenix’s growth. Cheap housing or jobs? He thinks it’s cheap housing.”

The Arizona Daily Sun. “Alec Wroblewski of Phoenix said he wasn’t surprised it took two months for his summer home here in Flagstaff to sell. Wroblewski said his home would have sold more quickly last year. ‘It’s sluggish,’ said Wroblewski of the housing market.”

“In Flagstaff, more homes are staying on the market longer than last year, according to the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors MLS. The average time a home stayed on the market so far in 2006 was 69 days, up 10 days from the 2005 average.”

“The number of homes sold in Flagstaff and the surrounding areas during the summer months has declined from last year’s totals. For the months of June, July and August, total single-family sales were 442 for 2006, down 29.4 percent from 2005’s total of 626 sales during the same period.”

“‘These figures demonstrate that our market is making some adjustments,’ said Ginny Britt, spokesperson and president for NAAR. ‘Buying a home is still the best cash on cash investment people can make.’”

“Jim Snook, a real estate broker in Flagstaff, said he believes home prices could dip in the near future, following trends across the country. ‘This is not last year’s market,’ said Snook, adding he thought prices locally have not begun to fall because sellers are reluctant to lower prices. Snook sold Wroblewski’s home, helping the Phoenix-based owner sell it to another second-home owner.”

“Realtor Stephen Brighton said the sense the price of homes in Flagstaff may begin to fall in the near future is natural. ‘It makes sense, Arizona led the country on the upside; now we are leading the downside,’ said Brighton.”

“Tom Brewster, a member of the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors, believes the local real estate market has softened. ‘People are sitting on the fence, waiting for a better deal,’ said Brewster, who is also a member of Northern Arizona Building Association.”

“For Wroblewski, the decision to sell was more sentimental than to take advantage of market forces: He moved back to the San Diego, where he grew up.”




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84 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-18 07:05:06

Here are some quotes from the Flagstaff classifieds:

‘ Brand New, never lived in’

‘ A GREAT HOUSE !! Walk to Downtown 3-bdr 2-ba w/study 1930-sqft 3-decks HUGE YARD !! REDUCED TO $410K MAKE OFFER !!’

‘3 Rental Properties for sale!! All have tenants’

‘Highly motivated seller of lrg Switzer Canyon home, 5bd/3ba, guaranteed to sell for below market value.’

‘ Must sell now! 3bd/2ba home w/1bd, ¾ba apt, 2 car gar & priced at only $299k!’

‘ Motivated Reduced by 70K Must see’

‘ FSBO: Price Reduced!’

‘REDUCED!! MUST SELL IMMEDIATELY! 3bd/3ba, loft, appliances, 1440 sf, 4 yr, $209,900′

Comment by Getstucco
2006-09-18 08:33:28

‘3 Rental Properties for sale!! All have tenants’

All have negative cash flow?

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-18 07:07:40

“But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, because if home prices dip a little, affordability will climb and the area’s growth has a better chance of continuing.”

And if home prices dip a lot, affordability will skyrocket, and that will be a great thing!

 
Comment by the_economist
2006-09-18 07:21:40

Ginny Britt, spokesperson and president for NAAR. ‘Buying a home is still the best cash on cash investment people can make.’”

Note to self: Take Ginny Britt’s name off the invite list for our financial think tank meeting.

2006-09-18 07:44:56

Isn’t there some superstition about people with double consonants in their names? I don’t pay attention to that sort of thing, but I could swear I’ve heard a few loopy people mention it.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-09-18 12:43:46

Please define a “cash on cash investment”, Ms. Britt. How does borrowing loads of money at rising interest rates to pay for a depreciating asset constitute an investment?

I can see a few cash-on-street-corner “investments” in Ginny’s future.

 
 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 07:23:20

I’ve met Kotkin and respect him but there’s a cognitive disconnect going on here. Phoenix was indeed built upon afforad LIVING that included housing but it has to move beyond that or crash. Again. It has enough critical mass this time but here’s the disconnect; to become affordable you have to wipe out a half million households financially. The other thing that’s being ignored is that Phoenix is just another big metropolitan area now. It has lost many of the characteristics that made it attractive to the original residents. There’s no plan to swap out the pioneers for the generic big city residents. The last 40 years of a shrug and “Hey, it’s Phoenix…” is not going to fly as an excuse. They need to prepare for liberal urban politics and all that implies for but one example. Personally for me Phoenix is ruined so I don’t really care. I’ll pioneer someplace else and not repeat their mistakes.

Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-09-18 07:40:08

robert im sure they dont want liberal urban politics in az.you can keep them where you are.

Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 07:49:56

You don’t understand my point. The first half million PHX residents were indeed conservative but the next million were not and the next half million will be big city liberal, nanny state “progressives.” You don’t want it and I don’t blame you but it is a demographic certainty.

Comment by flatffplan
2006-09-18 08:12:44

soon it will be all illegals seeking RIGHTS like free healcare via taxpayers

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Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 08:21:46

They already get free healthcare via the clinicas and emergency room and of course the pass through services provided their US born children. I even end up indirectly supporting these activities with my involvement in CHW philanthropy.

Free healthcare isn’t even a right for citizens but for a peek at your future refer to: http://phoenix.gov/indexsp.html
Si?

 
Comment by implosion
2006-09-18 12:06:57

Nice, same here in NM. Every HD and LOW, many banks, etc., have stuff in English and Spanish. I can understand private companies doing it for their customer base in some sense. Getting instructions for electronics, autos, etc., in several languages seems reasonable.

What I cannot understand is public entities using taxpayer $ to do put docs such as voter registration cards (English and Spanish here in NM), court info, DMV info, etc. in English and only one other non-English language.

I really am surprised the ACLU hasn’t taken up the case of immigrants from other countries being allowed to read taxpayer funded tests, books, pamphlets, etc. in their native languages. Why not force the City of Phx to put that info up in Chinese, Russian, French, German, Korean, etc., if they are using taxpayer $ to put it up in Spanish?

I found it extremely unfair and offensive (this is 30 years ago) that CA allowed people to take their written Driver’s License test in English and Spanish. My spouse at the time was from Europe and learning English, she did not get to take the test in her native East-European language.

The future has been here for a long time.

 
 
Comment by fred hooper
2006-09-18 08:15:39

“next half million will be big city liberal, nanny state progressives.”

You forgot the half million from south of the border. That’s a demographic certainty. And yes, Phoenix is ruined.

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Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 08:31:03

I did not forget them, I just was reticent to start -that- again. But el gato es outo del sacko so here goes…

In a rising QoL, growing, cohesive metro like Phoenix used to be the infusion of all strata can be easily adsorbed and often provides positive impacts in many sectors. When things get tight however all the positives evaporate and the negatives grow enormously. It is stereotyping but brown skin will become associated with the hard times a comin’. This is not a good set up for a place that hasn’t been a big city long enough to get big city procedures in place. Watch the school enrollment numbers and demographics in the ring cenurbs for the first signs.

 
 
Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 13:44:47

like george’s nanny state?

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Comment by cashedin05
2006-09-18 10:21:51

“They need to prepare for liberal urban politics and all that implies for but one example. Personally for me Phoenix is ruined so I don’t really care. I’ll pioneer someplace else and not repeat their mistakes. ”

Robert, you hit the nail on the head. Phoenix is ruined. It has become just like the the place I left 16 years ago to come here (California). It is very sad to see and I dont think it can be turned around.

Comment by Bill In Phoenix
2006-09-18 10:58:40

There are some exciting changes in store for Phoenix. Light rail (I wish they would get air conditioned stations in the plans though), the high rises changing the city scape of old town Scottsdale and Fashion Square, things like that. On the bad side: air pollution. Although every big city gets the liberal mental disease (credit Michael Savage), one hopefully adjusts his investment structure to shelter away a huge chunk of his net worth to avoid taxes (municipal bonds, T-bills, long term stocks, and invest overseas). I have a major (but legal) tax break as a traveling consultant and it’s better than a stupid mortgage interest tax break. The biggest concern I have about Phoenix is the availability of water. That will be the biggest killer and limit Phoenix’s growth. If the tree huggers are right about global warming, the average summer low temp will get above 100 degrees. I hope that the state gubmint would encourage and permit more nuclear power plants built in AZ to take care of energy growth issues. I love Phoenix, but think my real estate purchase will be somewhere in the northwest in 5 or 6 years.

Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 11:19:07

Light rail causes congestion. High rises cause congestion. Feel free to provide a (one) counterexample. These are the things Phoenix most does not need.

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Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 13:48:31

tree huggers? global warming is not predicted by tree huggers…………sober scientist predict it. However, we now live a world of reality base and wacko based……..wacko base also believes in creationism

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Comment by cashedin05
2006-09-18 13:51:04

I think you should be over there posting on moveon.org :)

 
Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 13:57:39

why? moveon posters believe in evolution?

 
Comment by NH_renter
2006-09-18 15:43:56

“Sober scientists” are just as likely as the general population to follow fads, trends, and in general swim with the current. Especially when their research funding depends on it.

 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-09-18 18:49:52

“tree huggers? global warming is not predicted by tree huggers…………sober scientist predict it. However, we now live a world of reality base and wacko based……..wacko base also believes in creationism”

I always thought it’s hilarious when people automatically assume I’m a creationist when I say a) I’m a free marketeer, b) I’m a backer of strong defense, c) I am against gun control, d) when I use the term “tree huggers.” I am by no means a creationist. Just a conservative Darwinist.

 
 
Comment by Jim Lippard
2006-09-22 13:31:50

Phoenix has the most recently built nuclear plant in the U.S. (Palo Verde), which will also be the last to be decommissioned. There are applications in the pipe to add additional reactor units at Palo Verde.

BTW, also in the works in Arizona are plans to build the first gasoline refinery in the U.S. in over 30 years, near Yuma.

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Comment by Pismobear
2006-09-18 18:13:35

Well, at least you people elected Randy Graf in the Republican primary, an immigration control spokesman, over the hack that Bush and the Liberal Amnesty crowd put forward. Just put a check in the mail for Randy.There may be some hope left for AZ?

 
 
 
Comment by Catherine
2006-09-18 07:29:50

“Realtor Stephen Brighton said the sense the price of homes in Flagstaff may begin to fall in the near future is natural. ‘It makes sense, Arizona led the country on the upside; now we are leading the downside,’ said Brighton.”

Natural, eh? So now the extreme seller anxiety, huge inventory (and growing), lay offs in all real estate industry jobs, foreclosures, etc. are…natural.
Well, it’s about to get…supernatural.

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-18 07:56:26

I’m here and waiting . . . bring it on. Sedona, Taos, Flagstaff, Santa Fe . . . I’d be thrilled in any of them.

Comment by norjacwy
2006-09-18 10:09:32

Taos, Flag, Fanta Se (intended) and Sedona - in that order. In fact, Jerome’d be preferred over Sedona (too touristy).
Those markets are toast should CA take a hit (so far it really hasn’t).

Comment by arroyogrande
2006-09-18 14:19:02

“should CA take a hit”

It’s hard to turn an oil supertanker, but once it starts, it’s very hard to UNturn it. The rudder has been moved, and the nose is just starting to come around here in CA.

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Comment by txchick57
2006-09-18 07:59:43

Catherine, be sure and look at the San Antonio building/loft conversion in this month’s Met Home. Very cool. Also in Western Interiors, a very cool old storefront conversion in Colorado. I saw one like that listed for sale in a small town in New Mexico. I love the idea.

Comment by Catherine
2006-09-18 08:18:49

txchick,
Awesome…I saw them. I love the idea of conversion. That’s what we did two years ago…converted the top of our manufacturing building to live in…There are some smokin’ deals (even in this market) on old schools, churches, hardware stores, etc. in many small towns.
I’ve got a new crack…a small mountain town in AZ that I don’t even want to mention here.
catherineiw@yahoo.com

Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 14:28:57

Jerome?

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Comment by Andra
2006-09-18 09:12:14

I’ve seen the magazine articles and HGTV shows on conversions and renovations of old houses. They are beautiful but obviously a tremendous amount of money invested. Do they hold up for resale at all? These homes really need a special buyer.

 
 
 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2006-09-18 07:30:49

The proverbial sh*t is hitting the fan here in the Phoenix metro area. I personally know 12 people who own more than 1 home. One guy has 9 *investment* properties, can’t get rid of any of them. During the peak of the bubble he went to Higley and Queencreek to buy up some ‘quick flips’ since he couldn’t get anything close to Phoenix. He’s still holding all of these houses. The music stopped and there are no chairs left…

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-18 07:57:35

We haven’t talked about the Queen lately. Time to hit the Phoenix Craigslist and see how things are percolating there.

Comment by txchick57
Comment by Catherine
2006-09-18 08:32:56

Let’s just call it The Queen Up The Creek.

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Comment by bystander
2006-09-18 08:38:56

Whenever you see the “will sell for loan payoff”, I always want to call the guy up and ask the name and number of his lender. Then blatantly tell him I want to negotiate with the true seller here.

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Comment by SLO Bear
2006-09-18 11:57:03

OMG - those homes are hideous!

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Comment by Casa$Loco
2006-09-18 14:42:13

Over 2800 listings in Queen Creek ALONE!! Over 54,000 for sale in Phoenix Metro. 21,000 with price reductions! I’m sure the other 33,000 are simply ones that have been taken off the market and re-listed. Ugly, Ugly, Ugly here in AZ! Glad I bought in 2002 with a 30 year fixed @ 5%!!

Comment by New AZ Resident
2006-09-20 17:39:13

I moved here at the end of the price runup and now I am waiting for the bottom.Currently renting a home that was bought by a speculator for 330k with 1250 rent.Been to many new home developments and they are knocking off 40-90k before asking my name.I love the smell of desperation. Phoenix area is not high paying and it only makes sense that the current prices are unaffordable and rent is cheaper than owning. I will stay on the sidelines til this corrects.

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Comment by Eastofwest
2006-09-18 07:40:12

32.9 vs 75 expected..for July inflow of foreign currency. Funny, I don’t think I heard nary a mention in the MSM. That is quite a descepency!
I always thought when the foriegners stopped buying our debt was when the telltale jig was up? signed: waiting ,and watching

2006-09-18 07:46:46

The jig isn’t up in the media because they are saying its so close to the next fed meeting, they’re holding off to where rates go.

 
Comment by Mike_in_FL
2006-09-18 08:48:56

My first post appeared to fail, so let me try again (apologies if this shows up twice) …

I’ve been watching the bonds extremely closely in the past several days because it appears they MAY be topping out (in price, bottoming out in yield). Today’s weakness is more potential confirmation of that fact, though I wouldn’t call it a definite reversal yet, especially with the Fed meeting in two days. If you’re interested (pun definitely intended) in more commentary on rates, housing, the mortgage markets, etc., feel free to check out my blog at:

http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/

Thanks…

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-18 08:55:13

Four Reasons for Bond Weakness
By Tony Crescenzi
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/18/2006 12:20 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10309558.html

The yield on the 10-year note is at a one-month high today. There are a variety of reasons for today’s weakness in the bond market. At the root of it all is the shift in expectations on the Fed. As I noted earlier, the bond market has moved away from its expectation for an interest rate cut in early 2007 to the possibility of another hike.

Second, with rate-cut odds falling and the market once again considering the possibility of another rate hike, the negative realities of the deep inversion of Treasuries to the 5.25% fed funds rate are being amplified. Traders are incurring daily losses on their bond portfolios, with the financing rate for their holdings about a half percentage point more than what they are earning on Treasuries.

Third, data released late Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicate that large speculators once again added to their collective net long position in 10-year T-note contracts, boosting their position by 49,000 contracts to a record 438,000. These data are closely followed by futures traders, who have likely been influenced by the data.

Fourth, the continued strong performance of equities is increasing the degree of competition for capital that the bond market is facing.

As I’ve said recently, a little bit of bond market weakness should be seen as a good thing for the stock market if that weakness is resulting from signs that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession.

Comment by Freeloading Roommate
2006-09-18 09:12:58

I would expect bonds to continue to do well besides some short-term weakness.

With the collapse of the housing market, and economic slowdown or recession likely to follow, it seems rate cuts are more likely than hikes.

Inflation has rapidly started to back off. The high inflation data we’re seeing now is mostly from lagging indicators.

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Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-09-18 20:07:45

The bond market is the purest and most nuanced market of all and gives the most information. Buying momentum has clearly dried up in the last two weeks. (I was earlier pounding the table on bonds but bailed last Friday.) Weak economic data is currently not being seen as a positive for bonds.

The bond market has gone as far as it wants to go on the low inflation trade and is currently hedging both the higher real interest rate as well as the re-inflationary possibilities. Thus, no matter what the Fed does, I think the bond market trends slightly weaker (higher yields) short term until further negative news comes out re GDP/employment/money creation data. But buying stocks here is also a trap, methinks. Next couple weeks will probably not be great for either stocks and bonds.

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Comment by Eastofwest
2006-09-18 09:01:16

adding to my post above..

The deficit totaled 6.6 percent of gross domestic output, the same as in the first quarter.

Financial markets shrugged off the data in early trading after the report. U.S. Treasury debt prices held steady at lower levels and the dollar was mostly unchanged.

Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said the most interesting feature of the report might have been the record $4.1 billion deficit on investment income flows in the second quarter.

“This is going to highlight … that the U.S. is a net debtor and as such is paying out more income than it is receiving. That has been anticipated for a long time and it is finally coming home to roost,” Ruskin said.
…appears Ameranth had a huge position in GG so maybe some reason for the selloff last week?

 
 
Comment by Gene
2006-09-18 07:58:45

Dose anyone know the month to month sales data for Flagstaff? Have the MOM median selling price started dropping yet?

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-18 08:20:54

No, but it’s the same old flawed data; the higher priced stuff is out selling the lower end. I only posted what I found on-line above. In yesterdays print version of the classifieds, there were plenty of ‘must sell!!’ and ‘motivated’ ads. Way high end for Flagstaff; $500k, $400k.

 
Comment by del
2006-09-18 09:45:47

What’s the rammifications, legally, of exposing such information if the information is not being made publically available? Like, say, a friend in the business tells you and then you post it on a blog? The NAAR seems to be keeping their numbers very close to the vest, so to speak. Just wondering…

 
 
Comment by norjacwy
2006-09-18 07:59:14

Flagstaff is a great place … pretty much in the middle of nowhere.
Unless you’re going to import your income from elsewhere (or work for NAU), most buyers are going to evaluate the market as an overpriced, commuter’s “paradise” or 2nd home market. Again, I love Flag (especially Macy’s Coffee - simply the best!) but the prices there are WAY out of whack relative to area income earning potential.

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-18 08:07:06

I love it there too and could live there because we both telecommute. But I will not be ripped off by these flipping fools.

 
 
Comment by schadenfrieda
2006-09-18 08:09:12

From Banker & Tradesman, a MA RE trade newspaper (password only):

Regulators Seek to ‘Scare’ Lenders Straight
The most recent disciplinary actions taken by the Massachusetts Division of Banks against seven Bay State mortgage companies have generated intense discussion within the mortgage industry. ….The Division of Banks cited the following alleged violations on Sept. 8: Achieva Home Loans in Worcester is charged with inflating applicants’ incomes; Equity Solutions in Worcester is charged with submitting applications to lenders with applicants’ incomes and liabilities differing significantly from the documentation available on site; Fintera Capital Corp. in Natick is charged with overstating the income of applicants; National Lending Corp., based in Houston but running several Massachusetts branch offices, is charged with operating with unapproved branch managers, failing to provide access to books, records and files, failure to notify the DOB of a branch closure and misrepresenting borrowers’ incomes.

The DOB also issued cease-activity letters to The New York Mortgage Co., based in New York City, for doing business at an unlicensed location in Lowell; to Woburn-based ARBC Financial Mortgage Corp. for conducting business at unlicensed locations in Lowell and Lynn; and to National Lenders for conducting mortgage broker activity at an office in Lynn without first getting a license from the division.

 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-09-18 08:09:53

so biatch how many have you bought in the last 6 months
same question for LIErah and any RE spinner
hese figures demonstrate that our market is making some adjustments,’ said Ginny Britt, spokesperson and president for NAAR. ‘Buying a home is still the best cash on cash investment people can make.’”

 
Comment by Larry
2006-09-18 08:18:18

The article is spot on. Five starts to the writer on this one.

This is so also true in Silicon Valley, CA. This is what I have been telling many people around me. But they dont get it. Even local CEO pow wow have been saying this for past 5 years.

We grew because of cheap housing. If prices dont correct it will kill off any growth. Its no wonder why F500 companies like Intel, Sun, and HP are cutting workers (renters and homeowners) in the valley.

Your mortgages are too expensive in a highly competitive global markets. A page from history has proven this to be true. There were many companies/employers in the 80’s that went under because of high cost burdens and lack of wisdom.

Folks you lost your jobs because your mortgage costs we the company have to pay.

Comment by Neil
2006-09-18 13:30:58

Pheonix is one of many losing jobs because they overpriced themselves out of their niche in the global economy.

Look at Florida, it used to be a lowish cost place to retire and certainly a low cost place for business. Due to the changes in taxes, insurance, and real estate Florida has priced itself out of 90% of the economic niches it competed in. The mouse is probably also hurting (with the cut back of forign tourism to the USA), but that’s for other reasons.

And my California… Ouch. Articles are point to california is losing residents and fast. This won’t slow down once housing prices are “known by Joes Sixpack” to be tanking. He’ll see it as validation to get his butt to another state.

Right now my company is relocating workers as they stop into manager’s offices demanding a salary capable of paying a mortgage. We offer them jobs in Pheonix (ironic, eh?), Austin, Mississippi, and a few other locations; many are taking the offer.

Neil

 
 
Comment by foz
Comment by Getstucco
2006-09-18 08:31:52

“Fannie Mae could be hit hard by housing bust: Berg
Mortgage giant could lose $29 bln, long-term bear argues in investor letter”

I guess Berg never heard of plunge protection?

Comment by jmf
2006-09-18 08:52:56

i think the key message from the report is this:

But the company has been investing more in subprime MBS in recent years. Subprime loans are sold to home buyers who fail to meet the strictest lending standards, so this area of the mortgage market is expected to be hit harder by any housing downturn.

Fannie and Freddie bought 25.2% of the record $272.81 billion in subprime MBS sold in the first half of 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, a Bethesda, Md.-based publisher that covers the home loan industry.

In 2005, Fannie and Freddie purchased 35.3% of all subprime MBS, the publication estimated. The year before, the two purchased almost 44% of all subprime MBS sold.

i never thought that the percentage was so high
http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 09:16:13

They purchase sub-prime and -usually- insurance and -usually- trances or gaurantees. Normally a conservative and acceptable practice -if- the insurance tables are correct. Ask the Florida hurricane policy writers if the tables are correct.

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Comment by jmf
2006-09-18 09:22:54

glad that you´re back

At the end of June, the loan-to-value ratio on Fannie’s book of business was 54%, he added.
Other experts noted that when Fannie purchases subprime MBS, it usually only buys triple-A-rated tranches. In the event of losses, the triple-A bits are the last ones affected.

Ed Groshans, an analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton, estimated that if losses in these pools of mortgages reached 10%, investors in the triple-A tranches would still get all their interest and principal back.

“Higher interest rates will cause more people to go delinquent on their mortgages, but not enough to push losses on these pools over 6%,” the analyst said.

let us hope that all the “experts” and the “analysts” have it right.

 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-09-18 09:43:14

AAA tranches can cover 10% default ratios for principal and interest? I don’t think so. I think they are claiming Fannie Mae can adsorb 10% defaults through accounting and stock divdends and other cash flow. And like every other aspect I have zero confidence that AAA sub-prime mortgagees are actually qualified. think about how easy it is to get conventional financing. Look at the liars loan stated income data. Anyone who was an honest AAA subprime applicant these last 4-5 years got a prime loan. The people who got the sub-primes are one flipper out of the primordial ooze.

 
Comment by jmf
2006-09-18 09:45:33

i agree 100%

 
Comment by FutureVulture
2006-09-18 12:07:48

The financial world is more full of risk than ever before, yet somehow everyone thinks they’re hedged against anything bad. It’s just like the “portfolio insurance” that led to the 1987 crash. Times 100 or so. Once things start going wrong, they’ll all go wrong at once. Financial system gridlock is very possible, IMO.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-09-18 08:34:05

“For Wroblewski, the decision to sell was more sentimental than to take advantage of market forces: He moved back to the San Diego, where he grew up.”

Bawn’n'bred in a bubble patch…

 
Comment by Mike_in_FL
2006-09-18 09:01:47

OT — but breaking news … National Association of Home Builders’ September index just came out at 30 vs. market forecast for 31. Fresh 15-year low for this index.

Comment by jmf
2006-09-18 09:06:26

The confidence of U.S. home builders fell for the ninth straight month in September, dropping to the lowest level since February 1991, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index dropped by three points in September to 30 from a revised 33 in August, indicating that most builders think the housing market is poor. Economists expected the index to fall to 31. A year ago, the index was at 65. A reading of 50 would indicate builder sentiment was balanced between good and poor

the builders are in the green!

 
 
Comment by jeffrey
2006-09-18 09:26:37

I live in Mesa right now. Bought my current house at 130k (4 bedroom, 1700 feet) in 2000. The house next door to me was sold at 340k at the peak - now on my street, there at 6 FOR SALE signs, all have been there for months. All have been reduced. No furniture inside.

Rot in hell, flippers and investors.

 
Comment by builderboy
2006-09-18 09:45:37

I’m waiting for the article titled “ARE NATIONAL BUILDERS GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY? ”

We already have blogs etc on the impact of a Walmart entering a community , what logic or positive impact does a National builder do when it moves into your area.

Lower price or better value on there product? well no on price. Value, in some areas of the materials they use it is a sham, the way walmart “lees’ jeans are not the Lee’s jean’s you expect but are made to these power house’s spec’s and priced lower.

The “pella windows” on some of these builders homes are not the Pella window you would expect, they are lower quality and of course price…… But the kicker here is they buy National and beat up the supplier, than expect the supplier local agent to “service” same window, for a cost of sometimes a buck a window . 30 windows in a home and for $30 the local supplier has to service. Is this exp. helping the community?

Local Trade labor? Again, these power house’s have the funds [bonds, NYSX] to do whatever they can to lower there production costs. Import illegal to work, fine with them. Than local labor gets the Ax.

 
Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 12:02:53

I grew up in flagstaff……long before it was a trendy, latte drinking town it was a dirty, windy, blue collar lumber town. The wind and dirt are still there……….the lumber is not. I wish I had a dollar for every tourist I saw downtown clamoring to move to such a cool place. After the romantic glamour of the town wears off the newcomer what they find is overpriced way overpriced houses…………service jobs at 8 dollars an hour. If their professionals such as professors and teachers they better be willing to take a 20% pay cut and a 20 increase in housing to live in “such a cool place” that is assuming the find a job. Flagstaff School District has hundreds of applicants for maybe 10 jobs a year, and that is assuming their are no cuts that year. I taught for 7 years in Flagstaff…when I resigned I had calls from 5 people trying to get my old job. Oh………….if they come to ski………..well………..think again. Long term climate change will render skiing on the Snowbowl obselete. In the last 10 years there has been 3 years of good skiing…….2 of marginal skiing and the rest sucked. Rock skiing is the best description. However the mountain biking still rules…………even though the trails are overrun with meatheads going way too fast on the downhill! I am slightly bitter………………..the town my parents raised 9 kids on one teacher’s salary is so long gone………..so are the kids…..parents of school age kids can’t afford the houses in flagstaff. It is a nice place to visit now. Poverty with a view!

Comment by txchick57
2006-09-18 12:38:33

The mountain biking and rock climbing are what get me but you’re right, no way you can live there unless you already have some money or telecommute.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-09-18 12:49:38

If their professionals such as professors and teachers they better be willing to take a 20% pay cut and a 20 increase in housing to live in “such a cool place” that is assuming the find a job. Flagstaff School District has hundreds of applicants for maybe 10 jobs a year, and that is assuming their are no cuts that year. I taught for 7 years in Flagstaff…

What did you teach? I hope it wasn’t English, since you don’t appear to know the difference between “their” and “they’re”.

Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 13:08:09

yep it was english!

 
Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 13:08:09

yep it was english!

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-09-18 13:10:00

That clears up some lingering questions about Flagstaff standardized test scores.

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Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 13:14:23

so sammy what do you know about flagstaff sat scores……and your last name sounds like a rash i once had on my ass

 
Comment by jeffrey
2006-09-18 13:34:56

Dave, Schadenfruede is the German phrase for taking pleasure in the pain of others. Du bist eine scheissekopf.

 
 
 
Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 14:02:13

science

 
Comment by PhillyTim
2006-09-18 14:18:32

Who cares!??!?!

Comment by dave stills
2006-09-18 14:26:37

your mother!

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Comment by garcap
2006-09-18 12:46:52

‘Buying a home is still the best cash on cash investment people can make.’”

How can he make such an outlandish comment? Money market funds have higher yields than residential real estate.

 
Comment by GaelicNonSequitur
2006-09-18 12:54:17
 
Comment by Arizzzona
2006-09-18 21:56:31

Flag is great.

Had some friends from England over this past weekend. The she half has ever been here but an American who works with her slagged PHX off pretty thoroughly. She left today wanting to move here. I suggested renting instead of buying (will forward links to sites like this), talked of the heat, growing traffic and winter smog.
Still … if you do it right - it can be a great place to live. I love it.

Some folks will never do it right anywhere - get “it” right - but will always blame the place.

 
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