September 23, 2006

Some Sellers ‘Beyond Motivated’ In Florida

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “Home auctions are on the rise across the Tampa Bay area, bringing into bloom one of the free market’s oldest price-setting methods. For Nancy Zwart, taking ads out to sell her Heritage Pines home in northwest Pasco County amounted to nine months of nothing.”

“‘A couple of people looked at it,’ Zwart said. ‘One man made an offer, then changed the settlement date 44 times.’ Frustrated, Zwart and her husband turned to Pasco-based North America Auctioneers. They hoped the home auctioneer would get them $250,000 for their three-bedroom house. They got $235,500, and were grateful.”

“‘Last year I was getting 10 calls a week,’ said Michael Peters, president of Clearwater’s American Heritage Auctioneers. ‘This year, I’m getting 10 to 15 calls a day.’ There is a catch: Houses may come in at a price lower than what the seller hoped for, underscoring the market’s appetite in an immediate and often sobering way.”

“Things don’t always work out, though. Peters’ auction at Richey Drive ended without a sale. After one property undersold by about $25,000, the seller changed his mind and placed a minimum price on a second property. ‘Sellers are not always going to get what they think they are going to get,’ Peters said. ‘But they weren’t going to get it (by a regular sale) anyway.’”

“‘We are not a magic bullet for moving the market,’ cautioned Bill Holloway of Bay Area Auction Realty in Pinellas Park. ‘A lot of sellers still haven’t come to grips with how the market has changed.’ Holloway said the number of calls he has received this year has quadrupled.”

“In the rise of the home auction, auctioneers are noticing another trend, the speculators are gone. Through the 1990s and until 2001, Peters used to only get bidders whom he describes as ‘end users.’ Then, as the stock market boom faded, speculators who turned to real estate started to pack his crowd. But by January this year, the ‘flippers’ started fading out, he said.”

The Sun Sentinel. “The Victorian-era home on Lake Cherokee will be auctioned off next month to the highest bidder. And to ensure lots of interest, no minimum bid is required, said auctioneer Alan Frenkel. ‘That makes it exciting,’ Frenkel said. ‘It sends a message to the public that it’s a fair-market-value sale. That motivates the market.’”

“The house was listed for sale at one point last year for more than $1.5 million. The home failed to sell last year as a regular real-estate listing, despite the area’s record-hot market, so the owner now is ready to settle for whatever the auction will bring, Frenkel said. ‘There are nine or 10 months’ worth of homes for sale’ in the Orlando area, Frenkel noted. So using an auction for an unusual property tells potential buyers ‘the seller is beyond motivated,’ he said.”

“Orange County property-appraiser records show that the home was bought in 2001 for $650,000 and now has an estimated market value of at least $1 million. The property was last listed for sale in early 2005 at $1.59 million, according to local MLS records. Realtor Darryl Hunt, who specializes in downtown Orlando, said he is stumped as to why the property never sold last year at that asking price, which was down from $2.1 million in an earlier listing.”

The New York Times. “As housing prices shot up in recent years, ARM’s gave borrowers a way to jump into the market while paying only a fraction of the interest that traditional mortgages require, at least for the first few years. But the risk they took now haunts millions of borrowers, who have seen their monthly payments skyrocket.”

“Stephen Parnell, CEO of the Lynxbanc Mortgage in Boca Raton, Fla., said some of his clients had taken out so-called ‘option ARM’s. ‘Some people are taking that short-relief pain pill in a last-ditch effort to stay in the house,’ Mr. Parnell said. ‘Their hope is that the real estate market in the next two to three years will be kinder to them.’”

“Others are in more desperate situations. Mr. Parnell used an example of buyers who had used ARM’s to buy homes in new developments last year, only to be facing payments they cannot afford. They would sell their houses to rid themselves of the loan, but the builders in those developments are selling off the last of their new homes for much less than what buyers paid last year.”

“One such owner, who requested anonymity rather than risk the embarrassment of exposing a financial blunder, bought a house in Port St. Lucie, Fla., as an investment in April of last year and financed the $410,000 purchase with an ARM, with an introductory rate of nearly 7 percent.”

“The loan was an afterthought, since he expected to sell the house almost immediately for a profit. He didn’t, and now the developer recently sold a similar house in the neighborhood for $325,000.”

“‘I just didn’t know what I was doing, and I shouldn’t have done it,’ said the man, who does not have enough equity in the house to refinance and who will run out of money to pay the mortgage in 10 months.”




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115 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-09-23 05:14:21

‘ Housing sales and prices in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are down sharply from a year ago. August’s new-home sales numbers in Escambia, for example, were down by nearly 50 percent over the same month in 2005, while total resales of existing homes dropped by 25 percent.’

‘In other counties where there was more of a speculative market, we’ve seen prices drop dramatically,’ Muller said. ‘Prices are very grudgingly coming down.’ Endry said he’s noticed that a large number of ‘dramatically overpriced’ houses either have been withdrawn from the market, or have had major price reductions.’

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-09-23 05:24:56

“‘I just didn’t know what I was doing, and I shouldn’t have done it,’ said the man, who does not have enough equity in the house to refinance and who will run out of money to pay the mortgage in 10 months.”

__________________________________________________________

Don’t worry real estate only goes up so you should be ok… Oh you are underwater to the tune of $85k plus costs… “Just don’t give the property away” - I am sure you were going to raise your kids there or feed some squirrels or something… Hold on until after the Super Bowl rally of 2007 by then you should be financially RUINED!

Comment by dukes
2006-09-23 05:54:02

The receding real estate tide is illuminating the dark side of bubble manias. It is incredible to realize that this is happening while rates are still historically low. There has been a true shift in psychology out there and I am glad that it’s finally here.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:02:05

No wonder the Fed is in pause (stall?) mode…

 
 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-09-23 05:56:25

Just get yourself a snorkel and keep swimming for the next ten years but beware the undertow.

Comment by Pen
2006-09-23 05:59:48

in this case, he’s swimming with the ‘gators’

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:03:05

Or with the crocs, or God forbid, stingrays. Krikey!

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Comment by Pen
2006-09-23 06:07:01

I feel bad for Irwin’s family, but no so much so for him..

..that’s right, keep poking that grizzly bear..

 
 
 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-09-23 06:42:10

Just run an ad on Craigslist explaining that you only want to get out of what you paid for it. I see a lot of postings on this blog of people doing this. I’m sure it works as it certainly makes sense to me. Once people realize that you aren’t trying to make a profit and only want to keep your credit score intact I am sure they will be willing to help you out.

When I heard about people just wanting to get rid of their drkoop.com at the IPO price I felt obligated to step in bail out a number of them.

Comment by reuven
2006-09-23 06:56:51

You’re funny!

I see these “owner deparate” ads, or the guy who’s being “honest” about his foreclosure. Do they really expect any buyer not to see this for what they are: Gimmicky Ads from slick-willies who would mortgage their own mothers if they thought they could flip her?

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-09-23 07:07:55

Problem in this guys case is he paid 410k and the builder is selling the same house for 325k; as a result, he overpaid to the tune of 85k. IMO, he does’nt need snorkels; he needs scuba gear.

Comment by Maverick
2006-09-23 08:38:15

Scuba gear is appropriate… Limited tank capacity… Limited tank capacity…

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Comment by Backstage
2006-09-23 08:53:04

The builder is OFFERING the same house at 85k less. What it sells for is another question.

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Comment by John Law
2006-09-23 11:22:45

“One such owner, who requested anonymity rather than risk the embarrassment of exposing a financial blunder, bought a house in Port St. Lucie, Fla., as an investment in April of last year and financed the $410,000 purchase with an ARM, with an introductory rate of nearly 7 percent. The loan was an afterthought, since he expected to sell the house almost immediately for a profit. He didn’t, and now the developer recently sold a similar house in the neighborhood for $325,000. ”

sounds like hedge fund blow-up, no?

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Comment by Mort
2006-09-23 05:28:52

I just didn’t know what I was doing, and I shouldn’t have done it,’ said the man, who does not have enough equity in the house to refinance and who will run out of money to pay the mortgage in 10 months.

Reminds me of the farmer who won the lottery. When asked what he would do with the money he replied: “I’ll keep farming until it’s all gone.”

Keep making those payments buddy. Of course everyone knows, had he made money he would have been a legend in his own mind.

Comment by Graspeer
2006-09-23 05:55:25

Congress will solve this housing bubble by passing a new mortgage program.

S – Special
E – Emergency
R – Real Estate
F – Financial
S – System

SERFS shall be given loans on certain conditions.

All SERF borrowers will sign for perpetual loans that will continue onto their children, childrens children, etc until the end of days.

All SERF borrowers will be required to get permission from their mortgage holder prior to moving, changing jobs and retiring

All SERF borrowers will pay their interest only loans first prior to any other expense or debt.

All SERF borrowers mortgage terms can be readjusted at any time by the mortgage holder.

All SERF borrowers will be required to perform certain duties such as lawn care and pool cleaning on their mortgage holders property whenever required.

Anyone interested please contact their local SERFS office today

Comment by Bob_in_ma
2006-09-23 06:00:35

Heehee. Very good. Will they have toi shop at the lender’s store too?

 
Comment by Pen
2006-09-23 06:03:31

“All SERF borrowers will pay their interest only loans first prior to any other expense or debt.”

A recent BK judge ruled that a BK couple can not include their tithe to their church in their “expenses” for the means test.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:07:10

SERFS… Brilliant proposal!

Comment by manhattanite
2006-09-23 06:14:36

SERFS is the last stop — for those who don’t qualify for HUMPS!

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Comment by auger-inn
2006-09-23 13:59:52

All SERFS will get permission to leave the country (the chipping of passports begins this January. Any guesses what info will be contained therein as soon as the bugs are worked out?)

 
 
Comment by sobemark
2006-09-23 05:57:08

condo sales in Miami are almost a standstill:

September closed sales to date : 441 !!!
September closed sales 2005: 1424

August sales 2006: 898
August sales 2005 : 1447

Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-09-23 06:01:40

I am confident that all condos that were sold in the market were high quality WCI condos at premium prices—NOT!

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-09-23 06:55:16

And a bike-riding buddy of mine and fellow housing bear just got back from Miami talking about the 45-story condo construction projects still under construction downtown. Might make some sense if they had plans to build a new baseball stadium down there, a la San Diego, but that ain’t gonna happen.

Oh, well, just hope Chavez keeps radicalizing South America, but how much more Caracas and Lima demand can there be? And that is some real squirrelly money, ready to jump on or leave a trend at the drop of a cocktail napkin.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-23 13:29:17

I am only amazed that there were ANY condo sales in Miami in August. FOOLS!!!!!

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 05:53:07

“There is a catch: Houses may come in at a price lower than what the seller hoped for, underscoring the market’s appetite in an immediate and often sobering way.”

It’s a Catch-22. Sell it yourself and wait forever to find a buyer, because your wishing price is 30% above the market price. Sell by auction and learn that the market price is 30% below what you “need” to sell for in order to pay off your HELOC and your old mortgage, plus raise a downpayment for your move-up.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:01:11

For the youngsters in the room…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catch-22

Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-09-23 06:05:57

Thanks Major Major Major!

Comment by manhattanite
2006-09-23 06:18:14

(the fb’s are like snowden, already dead … and we on this blog are yosarian!

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Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-09-24 02:33:46

Oops! Forgot one “Major”.

MMMM was the only character in the book that I liked. After he disapeared I lost interest. Luckily on HBB there are a number of interesting characters!

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Comment by Pen
2006-09-23 05:58:25

“…with an ARM, with an introductory rate of nearly 7 percent.”

if 7% is the introductory rate, then why didn’t he just take the fixed….oh that’s right…

“The loan was an afterthought…”

Hopefully the vasectomy won’t be, this guy shouldn’t reproduce…

Comment by Mort
2006-09-23 06:04:59

Those who shouldn’t reproduce always have the most offspring.

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-23 13:31:29

I have already made that statement in a prior thread and a few ppl jumped nasty.

Free vasectomies for men who have no intention of supporting their children.

Comment by Chip
2006-09-23 21:18:10

“Free vasectomies for men who have no intention of supporting their children.”

No, free vasectomies for ALL men. Freeze some, first, in case you want it later. THAT is liberation, maties.

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Comment by SimpleSimon
2006-09-23 07:21:54

Got a good chuckle out of that one, Thanks.

 
Comment by stoned_pontiff
2006-09-23 07:27:50

He couldn’t make the payments on a fixed.

He can make the interest-only payments on a 7%, but not the full interest + principal.

 
Comment by david cee
2006-09-23 07:29:51

Proposition H, a $100 million dollar bond issue for homeless shelters, is on the ballot in Los Angeles. The Catch 22, is the overextended homeowner says I am overtaxed already, and will be voting NO!. The conflict is that he and his family, will be needing that bed in the homeless shelter very, very soon. Please call your local mayor’s office and ask them what plans they have for the upcoming increase in homelessness.

Comment by chiphxla
2006-09-23 08:24:24

Maybe they’ll be able to rent some of the condo conversions that are not selling.

 
 
 
Comment by Sobay
2006-09-23 06:02:38

- “One such owner, who requested anonymity rather than risk the embarrassment of exposing a financial blunder,

Oh come on! Tell me who you are because we will simply add you too the millions of other desperate folks. You all look alike. You have a sad forlorn look of disbelief on your face. Just watch ‘Flip that House’ and you will cheer up!

Comment by Mort
2006-09-23 06:07:05

He must’ve done something wrong, they always make a profit on those shows. :D

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:14:11

I— said— some-thing wrong, now I long, for yes-ter-day-ay-ay-ay Yesterday… All my troubles seemed so far away
Now my mortgage debt is here to stay,
Oh I believe in yesterday.

Comment by Pen
2006-09-23 06:20:16

I -financed- something wrong, now I long for equity,
my house is being taken away from me,
I don’t have half the equity, I used to have,
oh, now I need a bank-rupt-cy….

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Comment by ajh
2006-09-23 06:32:41

I was about 6 months ahead of you with that one. Now, if I can only find the post . . .

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Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:42:45

Sorry — Everything that could have been said about the housing bubble has already been said here by now, but not all of us have had a chance to say it.

 
Comment by DC in LBV
2006-09-23 06:49:41

I still think this year’s big Christmas hit will be Jingle Mail.

 
Comment by John Fleming
2006-09-23 07:19:14

Oh I love the sound of Christmas!
Bubble bells, bubble bells…

 
Comment by ajh
2006-09-23 23:32:12

GS,

You don’t have to apologise, I quite agree.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-23 06:27:10

That’s the problem with this mania . People were going on loans that they usually wouldn’t touch . People didn’t take the loan or the debt serious because of the sure bet investment gains they thought they would be getting . Same thing happened with the stock market buying on margin betting in the late 20’s.
Alot of people didn’t care how the loan worked ,they just wanted in like their friends who seems to be making money .On a mass level people were convinced that real estate would continue to go up ,not even questioning it ,not even thinking about who the buyers would be when they wanted to sell .

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:41:48

Wizard –

As I have previously mentioned, the parallels you raise between the 20s and the 90s are exposed in Stiglitz’s book, “The Roaring 90s.” A key root cause is the return into fashion of an extreme laissez faire version of capitalism — deregulation run amok to undermine the existing rule of law. Hence we saw traditional loan underwriting standards, which protected both borrower and lender, largely abandoned to help facilitate the operation of giant
mortgage-finance sump pumps (the GSEs), which sucked risky debt off of lenders balance sheets and chanelled it into casino-gambling-quality MBS. What remains to be seen is when the brown stuff will fully impact the rotating blade (maybe the next time FNM files their financials?), and who will be the ultimate bagholders when the music finally stops.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-23 06:58:36

That’s the question that haunts me . I hope it doesn’t end up being the tax payers or my bank for that matter .

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Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-23 13:34:07

GS and HW - that haunts me too. Given all the stupidity in this equation all around, I feel ill in my gut that somehow we will all be turned into bagholders.

 
 
Comment by SimpleSimon
2006-09-23 07:26:46

That’s the thing about that brown stuff, it always has to land somewhere….

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Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 12:44:22

… it also tends to roll downhill (from richer to poorer).

 
 
Comment by stoned_pontiff
2006-09-23 07:39:58

You can’t blame “laissez faire” capitalism for this situation, especially since the government is buying mortgages.

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Comment by Spykeeboi
2006-09-23 08:05:14

What!? Unfettered capitalism and dollar worshippers are exactly the cause. Our government’s position in the housing market is not as a service provider–but as an accomplice to the scheme. This alignment of corporate and governing functions–usually against the backdrop of foreign threats and flag-waving–is more properly known as fascism.

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-09-23 07:59:17

As noted on other threads, the experienced financiers have already creatively cut their exposure to mortgage lending credit risks; the newer and inexperienced entrants in this lending space, however, may be in for a rough ride. I can’t name names but if you follow financial news and read CEO statements you’d be able to easily identify the winners and losers.

Ultimately, the bagholders lay at both ends of the lending spectrum, mortgagee and mortgagor. The problem you allude to GS is identifying the mortgagor; it may be a hedge fund, an insurance conglomerate, a GSE, your local banker, some central bank in Asia, or some unsuspecting pensioner, nobody knows.

What’s more frightening as you so wisely noted GS is derugaltion engenders unquantifiable risks to the entire lending system which I think may ultimately lead to some type of Credit Crunch. If that happens, all bets are off b/c we all get sucked into the vortex of a spiraling deflationary black hole.

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Comment by fred hooper
2006-09-23 08:08:09

“I can’t name names”
It’s obvious that you have inside information. At what point do you share this information? To the lurkers out there, do you have any moral obligation to be “financial patriots” and sound the alarm? What are you afraid of?

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-09-23 08:59:45

The problem you allude to GS is identifying the mortgagor; it may be a hedge fund, an insurance conglomerate, a GSE, your local banker, some central bank in Asia, or some unsuspecting pensioner, nobody knows.

Sounds like you’re referring to the mortgagee. Mortgagor=the party borrowing money from a bank or lending agency, using property the party owns as security for the loan.

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-09-23 11:23:01

You are absolutely correct; I spazzed; sorry!. Also, deregulation.

Thanks Paul.

 
 
Comment by Orlando Native
2006-09-23 09:26:11

During the 1920’s community banks would take savings deposits and then turn around and lend the money to homeowners. Remember the movie “It’s A Wonderful Life”. Everyone in the community had a stake in the local bank. The local bank had reserve requirements. Then there was a run on the bank. Bank could not give their customers back their money. As a result, FNMA and FHMC were created to buy the mortgages from the community banks to shore up their reserves. The original intent for FNMA and FHMC was to support the local community banks to be more solvent. Think of it as a bottom up approach. FHMA and FHMC existed to take the risk away from local communities. The transaction always began from the local customer. Nowadays, since the privatization of FNMA and FHMC, the deregulation of banks, the Treasury Dept utilizes the infrastucture to push and pull money through the economy. More like a top down approach. Retail banks and other financial institutes, along with their “marketing schemes” promote their products to individuals. The mortgage business basically morphed from an industry that supported a need (housing or shelter, according to Maslow’s Theory of Hierarch of Needs) to supporting a wanton lifestyle (where advertisers team up with builders and other real estate professionals to sell you a perceived lifestyle. What’s happening to us now is people are looking at each other and examining whether or not the lifestyle is worth it? Basically, is the juice worth the squeeze. It will be a bad falling out and we have no one else to blame but ourselves.

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Comment by ml in fl
2006-09-23 12:35:58

amen! It was never supposed to be like this.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-23 13:13:24

No reason to make easy money ,no down ,bad loans just because the loans are sold to the secondary markets .I don’t like the idea of pension funds going bust either .
You can see that the easy money just creates bubbles with alot of people stuck with loans that they can’t afford to make the payment . Really ,doen’t it defeat the purpose of a 30 year loan if a person can only afford it for
a three month teaser payment and from that point on it’s foreclosure bound . Isn’t it stupid to have no down payments to cover the cost of foreclosure or the fact that real estate might go down . If the property is the real equity to back the loan ,shouldn’t appraisals be accurate ?
This is just so stupid . Why does anyone think a free market means making any loan a person wants and let the chips fall where they may.
All the lies from the real estate industry about the reasons behind the appreciation in home prices . I can tell you right now if your a real estate agent you would know very well if your client was a speculator or not .
In the old days of lending speculators had to put 25% to 30% down at least . That’s how lenders treated speculators ,and they charged them a higher rate and higher points .
Wait until the manager of the Pension funds reports massive lose and says “apparently they were making the loans based on real estate always goes up “.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-23 13:39:59

…Why does anyone think a free market means making any loan a person wants and let the chips fall where they may…..

HW - that is the whole problem. When the chips fall, the guilty parties will be the he11 out of Dodge. There are few ramifications on a personal level for all the stupidity that has just occurred. We will see very few people jailed and that should not be the case.

Let us turn a large island into a penal colony and throw all these fools there….

 
 
Comment by Grant
2006-09-24 15:34:27

Another development that created the current mortgage situation was that many mortgage originators have no intention of holding onto the mortgage after it is written. They make their money off of the upfront fees and then sell the MBS to some dopey pension fund. The fund managers are desperate for yield so they can meet their earnings targets and are playing with other people’s money anyway.

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Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-09-23 06:07:24

(“‘I just didn’t know what I was doing, and I shouldn’t have done it,’ said the man)

HERE IS THE MANTRA FOR ALL SPECUFLOPPERS. I second all of the great snickers already made above.

Comment by david cee
2006-09-23 07:34:01

(“‘I just didn’t know what I was doing, and I shouldn’t have done it,)………..”I didn’t have sex with that woman”

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:18:06

“‘A couple of people looked at it,’ Zwart said. ‘One man made an offer, then changed the settlement date 44 times.’”

That is a great strategy! I have to keep that move in mind for 2010, when I get back into the market.

Comment by DC in LBV
2006-09-23 06:52:36

the buyer was probably dependant upon his own home selling.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:22:07

“Then, as the stock market boom faded, speculators who turned to real estate started to pack his crowd. But by January this year, the ‘flippers’ started fading out, he said.”

And my guess about where the ‘flippers’ are now? They are probably among his best for-sale-by-auction customers.

Comment by Graspeer
2006-09-23 06:30:20

“ And my guess about where the ‘flippers’ are now? They are probably among his best for-sale-by-auction customers. “

Probably on both sides of the sales, the ones who got caught with too much property and not enough money on one side while those flippers who still have money are on the other side trying to catch a falling knife. Remember a lot of these flippers identify themselves as some sort of junior real estate tycoon and have told their friends and family that real estate is the way to wealth. I think that a fair number of them will try to still play the game even when common sense should tell them to sit out if they can. Real estate is their claim to fame and fortune, how can they sit on the sidelines now.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:45:40

I hope you are right, as I love the image of one group of flippers losing their shirts on the sale side of auctions, and another group flippers catching falling knives on the purchase side.

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:25:17

“The home failed to sell last year as a regular real-estate listing, despite the area’s record-hot market,”

DUMB…

“… so the owner now is ready to settle for whatever the auction will bring.”

AND DUMBER.

Comment by reuven
2006-09-23 06:54:21

If these people were DUMB on the way up, they’ll be just as DUMB on the way down!

 
 
Comment by Catherine
2006-09-23 06:25:45

“And to ensure lots of interest, no minimum bid is required, said auctioneer Alan Frenkel. ‘That makes it exciting,’ Frenkel said. ‘It sends a message to the public that it’s a fair-market-value sale. That motivates the market.’”

Oh boy. This technique, while “exciting”, will truly f*ck the comps in a way the neighbors will not like. Those 40-50% price drops, like several here have forecast, will happen so much faster (like, immediately) with buyers setting the price point.
If they show up, that is.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:47:40

I wonder if it is possible to obtain auction results? If so, I suggest that Ben (or any poster who knows where to get this information) posting it here. It would increase Ben’s traffic quite a bit to do so :-)

Comment by Catherine
2006-09-23 07:13:25

Obviously, you can’t get that thru the local MLS, however, any appraiser worth the money they get paid, will be calling the auction houses when they work up future comps…I know they call FSBO’s, and other off-the-MLS sources (discount brokers, etc)…just don’t know how obligated the auctioneers are to give that info…maybe someone here knows. I would think they wouldn’t mind. Just drives business to them.

 
Comment by FutureVulture
2006-09-23 09:17:54

We bloggers could start going to auctions once in a while, just for fun and to post the bid info.

 
Comment by buddhaman
2006-09-24 09:09:57

I think the results would have to show up on the county appraisers website as the sale price, provided you have the address of the property. I know Pasco County appraiser has website that you can look up any property sales history if you have address.

 
Comment by mp_man
2006-09-24 11:34:55

This link has been helpful for me to see some auction results in Colorado. I see that it covers other states as well. They have current and recent auction categories.

http://www.williamsauction.com

 
 
Comment by still not time
2006-09-23 07:34:28

Auctions may set the new comps for Todays prices but keep in mind that it’s Today. Tomorrow’s prices will be another story and the day after that etc. Considering Florida’s home prices are but just one problem meaning taxes and insurance too I think we have a long way to go before the “bottom” shows up.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:27:43

“So using an auction for an unusual property tells potential buyers ‘the seller is beyond motivated,’ he said.”

Where does beyond motivated take the seller… Desperate? Indentured? Hosed?

 
Comment by Chip
2006-09-23 06:38:53

“One such owner…bought…in April of last year and financed the $410,000 purchase with an ARM, with an introductory rate of nearly 7 percent.”

What kind of credit score did this guy have, to have to accept 7% on an ARM?

Comment by DC in LBV
2006-09-23 06:56:38

That’s the price you have to pay when you are honest, and actually admit on the paperwork that it’s 100% financing on a non-primary residence.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2006-09-23 06:52:16

“One such owner, who requested anonymity rather than risk the embarrassment of exposing a financial blunder, bought a house in Port St. Lucie, Fla., as an investment in April of last year and financed the $410,000 purchase with an ARM, with an introductory rate of nearly 7 percent.”

“The loan was an afterthought, since he expected to sell the house almost immediately for a profit. He didn’t, and now the developer recently sold a similar house in the neighborhood for $325,000.”

And what will our Blessed Government do? Because stupid people like this are in the MAJORITY, they’ll keep interest rates artificially low to help them out.

Here’s why that’s not fair:

Suppose Fanny Frugal, a widower, did everything right her entire life. She saved a couple of million dollars over her frugal life, and wants to remain in her home.

Because of the Specu-u-vestors (who are being HELPED by our government):

1. Her property taxes keep going up because cheap money and crazy loans give people the ability to “purchase” homes at nearly any price with no money

2. Her interest income from her life savings keeps going down because our government, to “help” people caught with bad ARMs, is keeping interest rates low.

Is that fair? Our government shouldn’t be punishing responsible people and rewarding those who are undermining the very stability of our nation.

It’s enough to make otherwise honest people want to go underground and stop paying taxes and particpating in our governemtn.

Comment by KayLaw
2006-09-23 07:44:27

By, do I ever agree with you, Rouven!

 
Comment by michael
2006-09-23 08:31:40

Politics is about getting more votes and savers are dwarfed by spenders. I’ve enjoyed the “high” interest rates this summer. At least compared to gett 0.1% to 0.75% interest on my accounts in the past. Thanks Alan.

 
Comment by FutureVulture
2006-09-23 09:22:21

I agree with you too, Reuven. Read the history of Germany in the 1920’s, and you’ll see that inflation (which became hyperinflation) there did the same thing. It turned most people into speculators, screwed the honest, hard-working savers, and arguably led to the rise of Hitler.

 
Comment by bedub California
2006-09-23 10:50:16

My mom is Fanny Frugal but with a happier outcome. She lived in her home for 60 years and sold it last summer at the top. I think the young couple who bought the home as their ’starter’ home for almost $600,000 with not a single penny of cash probably aren’t so lucky.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-09-23 06:53:23

“‘I just didn’t know what I was doing, and I shouldn’t have done it,’ said the man, who does not have enough equity in the house to refinance and who will run out of money to pay the mortgage in 10 months.”

Does anyone have any predictions about how much longer it will take before the MSM draws the parallels between today’s real estate investers whose negative cash flow forces them to sell, and yesterday’s dot com startups, whose cash burn drove their balance sheets to bankruptcy levels? (Of course, we have been on to this for months, but the MSM reporting usually lags insights posted here by six months or so, until the situation is completely obvious already…)

 
Comment by Muggy
2006-09-23 07:08:55

“1,000 a day are defaulting in Florida!”

“It’s small, resetting price to pay for paradise!”

Comment by Jester in FL
2006-09-23 07:23:51

After all, we are working of a totally new economic model that no one has ever seen before that will keep those prices sky high forever because it’s a new paradigm and it’s different here. We are on the cusp of a synergy wave that will transform everything we came to believe.

Heh, I should have been in marketing.

Comment by Muggy
2006-09-23 07:29:21

That is my favorite Florida RE quote. Those types eventually end up making great cultists.

I’m not kidding when I say this: I know a guy who believed he was blessed because he hitched a ride up in NJ RE, parlayed that to a place in Hawaii… Now he believes in aliens and refers to the Celestine Prophecy every other word.

The mothership should be here anyday now…

 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-09-23 07:37:55

Love your hype!!

 
 
 
Comment by We Rent!
2006-09-23 07:23:02

…bought in 2001 for $650,000… blah, blah, blah… $2.1 million in an earlier listing.”

The world would be a better place if this person were killed by a drunk driver.

 
Comment by Muggy
2006-09-23 07:24:45

Sorry, I get so excited. Let’s try that again:

“1,000 people a day are defaulting in Florida!”

“It’s a small, resetting price to pay for paradise!”

Comment by Jack
2006-09-23 07:34:55

Muggy-

Where did you get that data?

Comment by Backstage
2006-09-23 09:09:56

I thinks it’s word (and reality) play on the old chestnut(s):

“1000 people a day are moving to Florida”
“It’s a small price to pay for paradise”

Comment by Muggy
2006-09-23 10:21:54

It is wordplay. Thanks backstage!

I live in Florida, love Florida, but HATE Florida.

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Comment by Chip
2006-09-23 21:25:19

“1,000 people a day are defaulting in Florida!”

LOL. That is more like present reality here, in Florida, than the “moving here” baloney that the bubble scotched.

 
 
Comment by Jack
2006-09-23 07:32:32

INVENTORIES ARE RISING AT A VERY VERY FAST PACE AND THERE ARE 3 TIMES AS MANY PROPERTIES COMING ON THE MARKET AS ARE SELLING. WE CANNOT SAY WITH ASSURANCE THAT THE MARKET IS FALLING AS THERE AREN’T ENOUGH PAIRED SALES TO DETERMINE THAT FACT. WE DO ANTICIPATE A DECLINE IN VALUES BASED UPON RISING RATES AND BUILDING INVENTORY.

The above phrase has been in every appraisal we have generated in the last 6 months or so and only one lender has called to ask for more information. Nobody gives a rats a$$ as they are riding the refi pony now.

Comment by kerk93
2006-09-23 08:28:14

It’s fractional reserve lending at it’s best. It isn’t their money they are lending. Why would they care? With this system we are all assuming that these bankers are honorable. If they aren’t, we get exactly what we have. It is OUR money. The banks are making their money off of your money, and when you come asking for your money back, you better hope your in the front of the line. Most has been lent out to idiots purchasing way overvalued homes.

 
 
Comment by Tom
2006-09-23 08:28:35

“Orange County property-appraiser records show that the home was bought in 2001 for $650,000 and now has an estimated market value of at least $1 million. The property was last listed for sale in early 2005 at $1.59 million, according to local MLS records. Realtor Darryl Hunt, who specializes in downtown Orlando, said he is stumped as to why the property never sold last year at that asking price, which was down from $2.1 million in an earlier listing.”

Stumped?? Stumped?!?! Let me see.. He paid 650k for it 5 years ago. He is asking almost 4x that? You are stumped why it did not sell? OMG these people are idiots.

Do you want these so called Real Estate professionals representing you in the biggest decision you may ever have to make financially? I think not. There is a reason people like him turned to Real Estate because he was too dumb to work anywhere else.

Comment by Curt
2006-09-23 09:34:00

Stumped?? Stumped?!?! Let me see.. He paid 650k for it 5 years ago. He is asking almost 4x that? You are stumped why it did not sell? OMG these people are idiots.

Maybe he put in granite counter tops??

Comment by M.B.A.
2006-09-23 13:43:08

and a koi pond

 
Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2006-09-23 15:23:22

I think it was the stainless steel appliances from Best Buy

 
 
 
Comment by chiphxla
2006-09-23 08:34:08

I wonder if Johnny Knoxville would be interested in a 3rd sequel to “Jackass”, this time featuring FB’s, liar loaners, etc. Too cruel? I saw that 20 something guy who’s linked on the Housing Panic blog, trying to get sympathy while unloading his half dozen or so properties that were all obtained with liar loans. I wouldn’t mind seeing him catapulted over a line of criminal appraisers and mortgage brokers into a pile of manure.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-09-23 09:29:38

I bet all those lenders knew damn well they were liar loans but didn’t care . Lenders/underwriters are under obligation to screen for liar loans and false loan packages . Its not enough that just because the borrower is willing to lie and sign a loan application that the lender is off the hook .lets face it , it was a deliberate close the eyes to the questionable loan packages by the Lenders to meet quota .

Comment by Chip
2006-09-23 21:32:27

Wiz — your post reminds me of something mathematical/statistical that I listened to (as in, shoulda learned) long ago, probably in a classroom. There is something about probability, that can be built into computerized forecasts, that takes “assumptions” (the soon-to-be erroneous ones in retrospect) about average-income-this and average-debt-that, and comes up with the net risk. Great stuff for a college class paper, but when folks’ life savings are on the line, reality could play out much differently.
Really glad I bailed on ownership.

 
 
Comment by postman
2006-09-23 10:25:02

really, it is getting crazier by the minute in south florida. the bad part is that when the govt. was offering millions of dollars to create affordable housing, no one would take it. not enough profit. so, it is too late to expect poor or middle class people to pay for housing and with insurance and tax rates, it is beyond affordable. and, every new bankrupt bag holder, that is one less buyer in the market. if one developer would have took the govt. money and build based on small profits over the course of 5 years, they would making a killing. even at 5% profit per unit, with the need of housing in south florida?

so now you flippers, crying me a river!

Comment by ml in fl
2006-09-23 12:43:18

Imho Florida is the most corrupt place in the USA, and I have spent most of my life in NY. If you look at what they spend for failing students and referndums that mean absolutly nothing in conjunction with the income this state deserves whatever it gets.

Comment by OutofSanDiego
2006-09-23 21:17:39

ml in fl…you got that right! I’m temporarily “stuck” in South Florida (SouthWest Broward) and we can’t wait to leave (next summer if my job resignation works out). One of the few things we do enjoy is reading the Miami Herald…my wife likes to highlight all the stories about local corruption, etc. It is actually more interesting than reading the Enquirer. Living here for the last year has really made me miss SoCal sensibility (though most people make fun of SoCal…they obviously haven’t lived in So Fla.). The only way this area would be attractive is if prices went back to about the 2001 level, especially taking into account energy, insurance, and taxes (even if RE prices went down I would still leave…I don’t like the societal rudness and corruption that we talked about earlier, that is prevalent in this area.)

Comment by Chip
2006-09-23 21:35:11

OT, and meant only in jest — how is it possible that “my job resignation” cannot work out?

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Comment by Muggy
2006-09-23 14:12:37

More wordplay:

Some Sellers ‘Beyond Motivated’ In Florida…

Some Buyers ‘Beyond Indifferent’ in Florida…

Comment by Chip
2006-09-23 21:36:49

Some Sellers ‘Beyond Motivated’ In Florida

That’s fair. This buyer, having a great rent deal, is currently “Beyond buying.”

Your turn, seller.

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2006-09-24 05:48:06

Imaginery “The Onion” headline:
Some Buyers ‘Beyond Florida Itself’ in Florida.

 
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