Speculators ‘Dumping Houses’ In SE Valley: AZ
The Arizona Republic reports on another inventory record; maybe. “The number of single-family homes for sale in the Southeast Valley reached 11,521 last month, which, if not a record, is at least the highest number in recent years. The last time the Southeast Valley had listings in the 10,000 range was in late 2002 and early 2003, according to the Arizona Regional MLS.”
“Realtors and housing analysts believe the number of listings is high because investors have begun dumping houses, home sales are usually slow in the beginning of the year and people who wanted to move held off because it was so difficult to buy another home for about a year.”
“‘A lot of people were probably waiting to see what was happening with interest rates and home values. So they finally went ahead with their listings,’ said (realtor) Gayle Mylek in Gilbert. ‘And a lot probably thought they could get the high values.’”
“Robert Rucker, the MLS’s chief executive officer, said he couldn’t determine that 11,512 is a record because the data are not set up easily to compute that.”
for some reason I couldn’t figure out how to post this link. here goes again.
A National Real Estate Investors’ Conference at BWI this week drew about 500 people, and many of them hopped on a bus to Baltimore for a tour of potentially lucrative investments
Odenton resident Kim Hicks jumped into investing with both feet - she quit her job at the Prince George’s County 911 center and bought her first property, a townhouse in Severn. She hopped on one of two tour buses yesterday because she wants to get to know the city
damn this is sad. good luck finding a job when the recession hits.
Yes, this is sad. I was listening to the “get out of debt” guy on radio - Dave somebody, forgot his last name. He made his fortune in realesate and said anybody who is anybody in real estate, or those who have been in it for over 10 years and have weathered at least one cycle, buy all their investment properties in cash. Reason being, these huge up/down cycless are as sure as the sun rises in the East and typically it is the only all cash positions that survive. Again he was talking to investment prop. I believe he thought it was OK that your primary residence had a loan. Anywho, never heard that philosophy before and it makes alot of sense.
Dave Ramsey
Dear Don’t Know,
There is no cookie cutter method to invest in anything. It depends, it depends, it depends. There is no such thing as a bad investment. There is no such thing as a good investment. It’s all about the numbers and your understanding of where the market will move. If you have good information, you’ll be ok. If you don’t know what you’re doing, then even “good investments” can turn bad.
For example. If you sink all cash into an investment that you cannot rent, what do you have? You have property that is eating you alive with taxes, insurance, etc., and that you can’t unload.
There is no best way, no sure-fire method. It all just depends, depends, depends. I’m not trying to rip on you. It just concerns me when I see good people forming opinions based on cookie cutter methods. There is no substitute for knowledge and understanding.
You are absolutely right, there is no sure fire way. The biggest factor is LUCK. I was a finance undergrad and my biggest hobby/passion for the last 25 years of my life is investing. I read everything from popular monthly personal finance magazines, weekly and daily papers (Barrons, WSJ, etc.) ,and tons of books along the way. I’ve scored big sometimes and also lost big (on what were “safe” investment, not speculative stocks). As you said, there is No sure fire method or everyone would be rich and that defies market principles. Everytime someone says they know of a great stock to buy, I explain to them that while that very well may be true, someone else who already owns the stock thinks the opposite. That’s why they are selling (and thus allowing you to buy). Lots of people can score big when they get lucky (i.e. speculators who gambled on R.E. in 2001-2005 and got OUT), and try to convince themselves that they knew what they were doing, but actually they were was just gambling, not investing. How will they do over the long run?
It’s probably also true that seroius investors aren’t buying some “condo” that was a rental last week that had a coat of paint and a fancy sign added.
Good for them!!
Feed the bubble fire! What kind of farking MORON would quit his job to “invest” in RE full time (when they own no rentals or other property), have no experience in RE, are not contractors and have no income?
These stupid chimps think having a RE purchase contract in hand is all it takes.
12 years in this game tells me these sailors will awaken in bed with a hangover and a man.
25 years in the game for me and I still struggle and work another job.
LOL! Apt metaphor.
“Odenton resident Kim Hicks jumped into investing with both feet - she quit her job at the Prince George’s County 911 center and bought her first property, a townhouse in Severn.”
Wait a second here. Did I just read that? Everday, I become more and more convinced that I don’t live on the same planet as I did in the 1990’s.
John,
The link works for me.
“Robert Rucker, the MLS’s chief executive officer, said he couldn’t determine that 11,512 is a record because the data are not set up easily to compute that.”
computing it is easy. living with it must be difficult for a realtor…
What he really means is MLS is a joke. It only serves realtors’ purpose to get buyers. They get to choose what they want others to see and conceal information not good for their business.
ditto
Fossil would be more accurate. MLS comes to us from the age before cheap databases when collecting and vending data cost real money and required some form of charity or cartel to support it.
that’s what I thought, how can they not have the data easily acessible?
It sounds like somebody needs to get out a calculator and write a better story.
Don’t panic and dump your properties…listen to the advice of realtor Jimmy Castro on realtytimes.com; just hold on to it for another 10 or 20 years and you should come out unscathed.
what’s that i am hearing?
….it’s the housing stampede.
11,512 may be a record now, but just wait until next week’s NEW record, and the NEW record the following week, and so on and so forth… this Spring will be a time of reckoning down here in the Valley of the Blistering Sun.
The company I work for has an online system that has a for sale message board. Most employees list things like used furniture or cars on it. A couple of weeks ago this ad for a newly built house was on the board. It came off then went back on listed as for sale or lease with a price of 324K or best offer. Can anyone guess where Queen Creek is? That’s right boys and girl it is in the South East Valley!
2560 sq ft Fulton Home for Sale or Lease. This is a new build and is located in Pecan Creek Subdivision in Queen Creek. The cross streets are Ironwood and Ocotillo. Features ceramic tile in all the right places, desert landscape in front, sod and professional landscaping in rear, 2″ wood blinds throughout, garage door opener, pre-wired for ceiling fans and the Garage Floors have been epoxied.
This home has 3 bdrms, den and a bonus room with 2.5 bathrooms and a 2 car garage. The pictures do not reflect the upgrades described above. If you are interested you can view the pictures at http://www.fsbo.com Listing # 79765. Asking $324,500 or best offer
You should mess with them if you can do it anonymously and if you have a lot of free time at work (like I do)…lowball ‘em for 225k! And you want them to pay closing costs!
I wish there was a way to find out what they paid for the house. I have tried Zipreality and it did not come up. The address in the on the ad. Does anyone know how to find the sale price?
Try below…
http://apps.co.pinal.az.us/Assessor/Search/ResData.ASP?B=109&M=28&P=256&S=0&C=1
If that doesnt work… go to…
http://apps.co.pinal.az.us/Assessor/Search/
Then type in the address from the FSBO listing…
Here is your answer though…
Date of Sale: 7/20/2005
Sale Amount: $180,904.00
Try this website… and type in the address from the FSBO site…
http://apps.co.pinal.az.us/Assessor/Search/
Here is your info…
Date of Sale: 7/20/2005
Sale Amount: $180,904.00
Use the Property App. website to find info on any house, just need to know the county…
ARE YOU KIDDING? 180k and these people are trying to get 100K profit on top of that plus?????? UFB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Use Zillow.com
Queen Creek must be a real pit or flipper heaven. It seems like more than half the stuff I see on Craigslist is at Queen Creek. I’ll bet it’s identical crackerboxes as far as the eye can see. Very depressing.
I haven’t wanted to pick on any one area, but many realtors are whispering about ‘what’s going on in QC’
ah yes, Queen Creek…just a frustrating 1.5 hour drive to downtown Phx on pitiful roads. All the houses look alike, built in 5 minutues using unskilled and crack-addled illegal aliens, under the supervision of quasi-qualified sub-contractors, bought w/ no-doc loans, because most of the people out there are just starting their body-piercing or home organization business, and they’ve already taken a 2nd out and bought the Hummer.
Lovely neighborhood.
Spray of diet coke just hit the monitor! LMAO! Thanks for the visual, Catherine!
Odd. The FSBO listing gives the owner’s name as “Brett D. Nichols”.
But the Pinal County Assessor listing with the 7/20/05 slae amount of $180,904 gives it as “Rodriguez, Jesus Oscar II”.
The county records for the Queen Creek Property are now updated. The previous owner was named Rodriguez. Just thought you would like to know
A little OT but did anyone else just see Zandi and Seiders on CNBC explaining how it would be a soft landing because “the economy is so strong”. Zandi predicted a “correction, not a crash”. Seiders said appreciation was 15% last year, and he predicts 6% appreciation for 2006.
I scoff.
Inland Empire Is State’s Top Job Engine
Florida dominates the Milken Institute’s index but California has five regions in the top 30
http://tinyurl.com/jhqgz
Don’t know if this was posted here earlier…I wonder how many of these new jobs are r/e related?
Since when is a “correction” a slower runup in prices? A correction (fibonacci levels) is usually 38.2%, 50.0%, or 61.8% of the change in price. If prices have gone up by 50% nationally, expect 38-62% of that 50% to be given back in a correction.
OT: From a Blog in the OC Register…
Suit charges discrimination on Craigslist
A lawsuit filed by a housing advocacy group accuses the online classified-ad service Craigslist of violating federal law by accepting ads that contain discriminatory language.
Among the ads that the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law cites are ones with phrases such as “no kids allowed,” “single occupancy only,” “no minorities,” and “African-Americans and Arabians tend to clash with me.”
Craigslist defends its policies, saying it shouldn’t be held to the standards that apply to newspapers’ classified ads. Its small staff shouldn’t be asked to screen the content of what users post, Craigslist says.
The company prominently displays the rules about prohibited language and asks users to “flag” ads that violate the rule. But that doesn’t keep out the language that the lawsuit is challenging. A quick search of rental listings for O.C., for example, found these two anti-child and anti-disability listings:
In Huntington Beach: “No pets, smoking, drugs, children.”
In Newport Beach: “No pets, drugs, cigarettes, psychological problems, children, hunchbacks, etc.”
No hunchbacks? LMAO - what is that supposed to mean?
Either trying to be funny or basically saying if you look funny we don’t want ya!
how biz ?
I’m getting slow messages already, I’m not in HIC completely ,but feeling the slowdown already
Here’s another one from that OC Register Blog.
Bubble or no bubble?
http://tinyurl.com/js2xf
I think I have seen where housing has increased at about 4% a year over the last 70-80 years. 6% gain is not a correction….that is a great year. This guy doesn’t have a clue.
I said it before and say it now, the 4%-6% appreciation claim is not for 2006. the claim is made very safely while considering house appreciation from 1997 to date. This 4-6% appreciation will reduce the house prces by 40%-50% by 2007.
I agree with 4-6% appreciation on a historic basis but not from the bubble top.
You really think the talking heads for the RE market are that crafty to word as such to cover there ass’s when/if it falls??
I have never thought of it that way, but interesting way to look at it…
That is very interesting. Good CYA.
It’s actually less than 1% appreciation in real inflation-adjusted terms according to Robert Shiller’s research.
The talking head or RE are the most foolishly smart people I have ever come across
“Robert Rucker, the MLS’s chief executive officer, said he couldn’t determine that 11,512 is a record because he really, really doesn’t want to know, and he certainly doesn’t want to report it publicly. Rucker’s PR Exec, Sargeant M. Schulz, confirmed: I see nozzing! I know nozzing!’; whereupon RE spokesperson Col. Klink dropped his monacle and shouted: ‘Hogan!!!’”
For those interested, Quenn Creek is another one of those outer suburbs of Phoenix that was basically raw desert 10 years ago. It is a TERRIBLE commute from there to just about anywhere in the valley. There was a major story here a few weeks back about how the heavy traffic is impacting people’s lifes and making them reassess their decisons to live in these outer burbs. Also no jobs to speak of out there, except the usual minimum wage stuff. Unfortunately, the flippers will be flipping burgers before this all shakes out.
make that Q-U-E-E-N Creek … as in UP THE CREEK
Here’s a mullet flopping around on the end of a hook. Note the area code. Queen Creek again! LOL
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/apa/136510395.html
The 415 area code indicates a San Franciscan more than it does a “mullet”? This kind of distinction is important. For many in this they will simply dump the asset at whatever price and write off the loss. The bubble correction will consume a lot of cash, but those who started with a lot might not even be forced to change their ways just yet.
Comment by azdan
2006-02-23 16:06:37
For those interested, Quenn Creek is another one of those outer suburbs of Phoenix that was basically raw desert 10 years ago. It is a TERRIBLE commute from there to just about anywhere in the valley. There was a major story here a few weeks back about how the heavy traffic is impacting people’s lifes and making them reassess their decisons to live in these outer burbs. Also no jobs to speak of out there, except the usual minimum wage stuff. Unfortunately, the flippers will be flipping burgers before this all shakes out.
I’m not sure where Queen Creek is in AZ, but I just finished talking to an ex neighbor friend of mine who moved back with his family in Gilbert, where they were born and raised. He was quite upset to find out that his hometown of Gilbert had turned into a sprawling, traffic choked mess, filled with empty McMansions. He and his family are so not happy to have to deal with the annoyances that have come with this real estate speculation, with bumper to bumper traffic everywhere.
Man…Queen Creek is sooo unattractive. Even in early 2003 when I looked at homes there with my family (when prices were still reasonable) I was turned off by the area. It’s just flat and hot. and nothing around. In 03 you still were driving through farmland to get there (that’s probably filled in with McMansion by now). I do like the desert when you have a view of the mountains, cactus, etc. But Queen Creek….ugh!
I agree. I expect Maricopa, Surprise and Buckeye to follow. We expected better bargains in QC and these other outlying areas this past summer and found none. The asking price needs to be halved just to make the commute worth it. A Queen Creek RE agent at Scott Communities told us that speculators from CA were buying homes by the dozen in their community and surrounding ones. They were suppose to take possession sometime this winter.
before I get sink all my cash in to an investament in AZ Gilbert I just wash my hands from $20,000. I payed 20k to build to houses in Az but the market is too bad and it is getting worse. I just told the real state guy that do not want to buy it. I will get sunk with all my cash.