October 3, 2006

‘The Exuberance Couldn’t Last Forever’

CNN reports on the realtor boom. “There wasn’t just a boom in real estate over the past decade, there was also a big boom in real estate agents. But the exuberance couldn’t last forever. Agents, who work on commission, are already beginning to feel the bite.”

“‘We’ve seen a big softening in Florida, there are fewer sales to be spread around more sales people,’ Richard Fryer, President of a Florida school that offers a variety of real estate courses. ‘Obviously there are some people who are not generating a lot of income in this market.’”

“‘You’ve got a lot of people who got into the business in the last two to three years who never really had to do the hardest work of an agent, people who were basically picking low-hanging fruit,’ said Fryer. ‘Now they’re suffering the most.’”

“Some realtors are beginning to look to other professions for an income to sustain them during the tightening. ‘Many agents in my local community are really crying the blues,’ said Geri DeWitt Ruby, an agent in upstate New York. ‘They’re very pessimistic, and they’re even talking about finding other employment.’”

“Said Gayle Henderson, an agent in Phoenix: ‘Our realtor population had swelled to over 70,000 in a population of 3.6 million. Now people are talking about getting another job or leaving the business altogether.’”

“The cornerstone of the whole boom was the real estate license, seen by many as the easy ticket to wealth. Apparently a whole lot fewer people see it that way now. ‘I’m absolutely encountering fewer new agents in the field,’ said Neil Brooks, an agent in Phoenix.”

“‘In the frenzied market we just came out of, there were plenty of brokers that were just acting as order takers,’ said Pamela Liebman, CEO of Corcoran in New York City. ‘Now they really need to work hard to sell these properties.’”

“And so it is that the end of irrational exuberance doesn’t trouble most long-time brokers. ‘You can’t just expect to stick a sign in someone’s front yard and have the house sell,’ said Brooks.”

The New York Times. “If ‘Million Dollar Listing’ had a disclaimer at the beginning of each episode, it might read something like this: The scenes depicted in this television show were filmed at the height of an overheated real estate market. They are not reflective of current economic conditions.”

“Consider the following scene. A Hollywood real estate agent, Ray Schuldenfrei, implores his wife and business partner, Dia, to list a two-bedroom Hollywood Hills home for $949,000, about $25,000 higher than she thinks is fair. ‘This is a crazy market right now. People aren’t buying from here,’ he says, pointing to his head. He then taps his chest. ‘They’re buying from here.’”

“These programs are being broadcast on television as the real estate boom they depict is a fading memory. ‘It was hot, hot, hot,’ Mrs. Schuldenfrei said last week, reflecting fondly on the Southern California boom days. ‘All you had to do was put a sign up.’”

“Without a white-hot market to drive the plot, the producers of ‘Million Dollar Listing’ and other shows about real estate now have to rethink their formats. And a handful of real estate agents may start to wonder whether their careers as reality TV stars are over.”




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132 Comments »

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-10-03 11:58:28

Look out McDonalds, lots of new applicants coming your way!

Comment by Bubblewatcher
2006-10-03 12:17:38

I worked in my grandfather’s Beverly Hills real estate office after school and during the summer while I was in high school and college. This was back in the Housing Bust of the 1970s, and let me tell you, these agents are much more interesting when they have to actually work for their supper. They’ll stab anybody’s back to get ahead…none of this lovey-dovey office camaraderie. If this were a full-on slowdown instead of a boom, that 24 year old would be taking it up the you-know-what from Chris Cortazzo just to make the paltry $1600 commission on leasing his beach house. And you can just imagine the panic these plastic-surgery victims get into when boob job number 8 is out of their price range…

I hope Bravo keeps renewing this series!

Comment by Joe Schmoe
2006-10-03 12:22:15

I’m pretty sure the 24 year-old is already taking it up the you-know-what from Chris Cortazzo. Just sayin’.

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-10-03 13:15:04

That was my assumption too, how else does a young, cute gay guy generate 17M in sales his first six months out? Then I saw him working for an older, cute gay guy, with 200M in sales, and I got my answer.

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Comment by Bubblewatcher
2006-10-03 13:25:44

So THAT’S what they meant by “mentor”. Okay, so I’ll rephrase this…once the bubble pops, that 24 year old gay guy will be banging that Jocelyn Wildenstein horror show for listings…

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-10-03 15:07:24

the old gay guard is pretty big in LA- I’m just saying - and lots of income too…

I WOULD like to see catwoman actually getting the attention she so horribly must be wanting

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-10-03 15:07:56

..or Angelyne

 
 
Comment by Gekko
2006-10-03 15:41:52

-
I’m not gay, but I thought that Chris Cortazzo was one smooth dude. He had a real laid back California cool about him. But I knew something was up when I saw he was a big donor to PETA and he never once checked out that hot blonde Cortes’s a$$. His $6M Malibu beach bungalow is SWEEEET though. It looks like it’s for sale NOW:

http://chriscortazzo.com/listing.cfm?LID=125

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Comment by Gekko
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2006-10-03 20:00:57

That place is way, way, WAY overpriced! Almost $6 mil for 1250 square feet? I don’t care where it is. That is a joke.

 
 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-10-03 13:36:57

They’ll stab anybody’s back to get ahead

Hey, we’ll roger that one, good buddy!!!!!!!!

 
 
Comment by Robert Coté
2006-10-03 12:19:08

McDs is already having trouble with language issues. Too many recent hires cannot parse “no pickles.” Add realtors and instead of “would you like fries with that?” they ask “we have an introductory rate of 4.75% and a balloon due 5 years from now… “

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-10-03 13:16:25

LOL. Think of all the supersizing you could do using IO financing.

 
Comment by Happy_Renter
2006-10-03 14:05:58

This is no joke. People who I recognize from the part of town where illegals live are now working in McDs kitchens in rural Kentucky. These people do not speak a word of english, and most of them are from Central America (El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala), some from Mexico.

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-10-03 15:44:44

I know through my Mexican workers that a bunch of them are moving to N. Carolina and Florida. Steady construction work, especially after hurricanes, and cheap housing, is what they’re following.

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Comment by Jaz
2006-10-03 13:23:12

This realtor goes into McDonald’s, desperate for any job. He fills out the application. The manager looks it over, and says, “I’m sorry, all our realtors have Master’s and Ph.D.s.”

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-10-03 13:48:20

What was the name of the movie where the realtor worked at the fast food joint? Kevin Kline. Roses something…

Comment by CrazyintheOC
2006-10-03 13:58:31

American Beauty

Comment by Joe
2006-10-03 14:17:52

Right, but he wasn’t a Realtor, his wife was (Annette Bening).

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Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 17:13:15

He was just a middle aged guy looking for the least amount of responsibility, which is very similar to many Realtors!!

 
Comment by Curtis G.
2006-10-03 17:19:37

And it was Kevin Spacey.

 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-10-03 18:40:24

dang! Beat me to it. Kevin Spacey and American Beauty. I watch it once a year. I like his lacadaisical attitude about his telemarketing job, kind of the way the office space main character did not give a rat’s *ss about his.

 
Comment by implosion
2006-10-03 20:54:49

I always thought the most amusing part of that movie was the KS character working himself up in the shower thinking about the young woman. It was the high point of his otherwise dreary day at age 42.

 
 
 
 
Comment by dannll
2006-10-04 08:43:51

This happens every cycle as regular as clockwork. Everyone quits their jobs to cash in on the ‘easy money’, then has to go back to the real world. When I was in the restaurant biz, you could keep track of the cycle by the job apps. None of the newbies has a clue how much work is involved in Real Estate…Mention ‘farming’ and get a blank stare. Prospecting? Cold Calling?
The upside is that maybe customer service in some retail and restaurants will improve, though…probably not…that would mean working.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-10-03 12:00:39

Also the show with the asian gal - Suazzane Wong (how can something so wong seem so wright). All of those episodes are tagged as 2004 and 2005 and appear to take place in SD.

Comment by flatffplan
2006-10-03 12:05:36

house HATERs 2007 should be a hit

 
Comment by FoxV
2006-10-03 12:08:30

yup. waiting to see the new 2006 episodes myself.

so far I’ve seen two 06 episodes of “Flip this house”. The people didn’t get hosed, but you’re left with the impression of “is it really worth it?”

 
Comment by Joe Schmoe
2006-10-03 12:25:37

I can’t help it — I think Suzaanne Whang is hot. Especially when she wears those bright neon shirts.

Comment by EProbert
2006-10-03 12:40:33

jar jar binks

 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-10-03 18:42:08

my sister notices I have the hots for that Asian gal. She said the culture is different, no matter what generation American. I am like, who cares! Susanne Wong is hot and I had Asian girlfriends before!

Comment by chuen
2006-10-03 22:17:38

Sorry OT continued — Susanne has two hairstyles - bangs down and bangs up. I have the occasional hots for the Asian gal, but being a banana (white inside, yellow outside), I can’t get along with any of them, any generation. And banana gals tend to go for non-Asian guys. So I married a Texas gal instead.

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Comment by implosion
2006-10-04 00:53:15

I can honestly say I have never heard the term “banana” used as an ethnic reference. Learn something new all the time.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Bubble Butt
2006-10-03 12:02:38

An agent calling the market last year “Irrational Exuberance”… wow we finally have a realtor on record actually calling this pig a pig. Another milestone and indicator of how bad things really are now.

 
Comment by xynamax
2006-10-03 12:08:22

“Some realtors are beginning to look to other professions for an income to sustain them during the tightening. ‘Many agents in my local community are really crying the blues,’ said Geri DeWitt Ruby, an agent in upstate New York. ‘They’re very pessimistic, and they’re even talking about finding other employment.’”

let’s look back to 2001…

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/01/28/BU167352.DTL

“I got caught up in the Internet craze. I figured I had nothing to lose. I was young, and the thought was you could make millions with these (stock) options,” said Pombar, 27.

“My attitude was, ‘I’m going to run with this Internet opportunity, and if this works out, I may not need my MBA.’ ”

Now, laid off in December from his New York job at the flagging dot-com with his dreams of riches unrealized, he is back in a Kaplan Inc. test preparation course and reviving his business school applications.

Comment by CrazyintheOC
2006-10-03 14:10:01

What amazes me is this RE mania came right on the heels of the internet mania and bust. Dont we learn from our mistakes? You know-fool me once …

2006-10-03 16:08:38

Umm…this was by design of Alan “I love myself” Greenspan.

 
Comment by tg
2006-10-03 16:09:35

If you cannot save in money and get ahead what do you do?This was engineered by the fed to bail out the dot -com bust For Chrisakes, Greenspan told people to go out and get home equity loans. You had negative real interest rates which means if you had money in the bank your were losing money while housing was going to the stratosphere. Most people were trying to save for a down payment soon got priced out of the market. Next comes creative financing and the greed at the margins. The real question is where the next bubble is going to be.

TG

 
 
 
Comment by AnonyRuss
2006-10-03 12:11:00

“Said Gayle Henderson, an agent in Phoenix: ‘Our realtor population had swelled to over 70,000 in a population of 3.6 million. Now people are talking about getting another job or leaving the business altogether.’”

December 2005—
The boom didnt evade Phoenix, Ariz., but local experts such as Gayle Henderson, an associate with RE/MAX Excalibur in Scottsdale, Ariz., anticipate even more sales, based on strong fundamentals such as projected long-term population and job growth.

Comment by Hoz
2006-10-03 13:37:17

A most excellent find.

 
Comment by Dr.Strangelove
2006-10-03 14:27:46

AnonyRuss

Nice research. What a 180 for one year. This is happening all over.

DOC

 
Comment by Richie
2006-10-03 16:34:26

HAH! She wen’t from “local expert” in 2005 to “an agent” in 2006.

WOW, what a promotion.

 
 
Comment by KIA
2006-10-03 12:11:52

They could tweak the title a bit to “A million one-dollar listings.”

Just a thought.

 
Comment by builderboy
2006-10-03 12:12:12

This is a crazy market right now. People aren’t buying from here,’ he says, pointing to his head. He then taps his chest. ‘They’re buying from here.’”

Yeah, and pointing to his ass, were going to stick it to them there.

Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 17:17:08

LOL Absolutely!!! Why did my Realtor just call me BEN DOVER!!

 
 
Comment by Les Pendens
2006-10-03 12:16:04

I look for most of these get rich quickie assclowns to try their hands at the next easy job that yields the “low lying fruit”……but what that job is will be a mystery. I think Real Estate will prove to be the end of the raod for most.

Now that the credit crunch is on and the easy money is gone, just what can a ex-”Model Agent” with a GlamorShot(tm) do ?

Sell cars ? Sell insurance ? Go into porn ? Bartend ? Teach schoolkids ?

What ?

Most of these people have no skills whatsoever…as in Working Skill. I would wager that most don’t have a four-year college degree.These shills aren’t trainable as computer programmers, engineers, trade workers, brain surgeons, etc. They have no background in anything whatsoever. Chit chat skills, youth and beauty will only get you so far.

Realtors(tm) and their ilk are a worthless bunch. They have drank long and hard at the Free Money Punchbowl and now it’s time to sober up and figger out what to do.

A lot of these freeloaders are in for a major hurtin’ and a big attitude adjustment.

Comment by SimpleSimon
2006-10-03 12:23:01

I imagine prescription Xanax will be in great demand ,in the coming months and years ahead for these folks….

 
Comment by DinOR
2006-10-03 12:35:21

Les Pendens,

Well what should we expect. There are virtually NO barriers to entry and the 22 yr. old that cuts my wife’s hair has a hell of a lot more formal training the nearly all realtors. Unlike investment banking where you start out at the bottom (regardless of school) and work your way up, realtors take a week long course, take a test and “boom” you’re a realtor! What’s sad though is that they put these people in a an environment where they’re being beaten to death by the inter-office competition before they even realize there IS a competition! Mostly it’s a “feeder system” where they get newbies on board and when they get frustrated and inevitably quit the “senior” brokers will get to work over all of their relatives and referrals. Great system huh?

Watching these people die on the vine will be most enjoyable. In spite of what the articles shared RE is basically “hit and run” sales so you’re only as good as your last sale. With the breadth of this unprecedented sell off it won’t really matter how long you’ve been in the business. In fact w/all of their clients under water it could well work against them. Good luck in your new career!

Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 17:30:04

Actually in California it is harder then that to become a broker. A salesperson takes 2 classes and a test and they can work for a broker. A broker requires a college degree, 8 classes then the State exam or one can substitute 2 years working for a broker as a salesperson for the college degree. I am taking these courses to become a broker. Not so I can be a Realtor but it only cost me $450 for the courses. I am educating myself on the principles, practices, and rules for which the profession is supposed to follow and by being a licensed broker I will get a kickback on my next property that I purchase (at 3% on 500k= $15,000) so my education will quickly pay for itself. I see it as a win win deal for myself!!! I am smarter because of it and I pay less for my next home. Those who became a Realtor because it was easy money will be flushed out over the next 2-3 years and the ones who are professionals will be the only ones who remain (for the most part).

Comment by Thomas
2006-10-03 17:51:42

I was in Oakland downtown around June or So of 2004…
Huge line of young and old …. Extemes only … few in between getting ready to take test at the convention center…. I can see the older people getting into this…

But these really young kids just blew 3-4 years down the toliet .. would have been better off getting a degree.

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Comment by IL_NC_IN_CA
2006-10-03 19:26:54

What do you value your time at?

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Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 21:05:19

Not quite sure what you are asking but I have excess time that I choose to spend it by educating myself on economics, finances and Real Estate. I know I will buy a house in the next 4 years, so I might as well be better informed and pay less for a home (net cost). My time is extremely valuable if it takes away from the things I want to do, but not very valuable if I spend it doing what I want to do. I guess the value of my time depends on the activity.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mike Fink
2006-10-03 12:55:35

We can always use more porn; and I have a few RE agents I know who would do well in that business.

They already understand the model, if you get my meaning. :)

Comment by reuven
2006-10-03 13:38:12

We can film Porn in open houses!

 
Comment by reuven
2006-10-03 13:38:13

We can film Porn in open houses!

 
Comment by ok_land_lord
2006-10-03 15:33:17

How about REALTWHORES GONE WILD!

 
 
Comment by lineup32
2006-10-03 13:36:16

Chit chat skills, youth and beauty will only get you so far

Chit chat skills, the new service economy PHD.

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-10-03 15:31:51

Professions with the possibility for pyramid schemes, like weight loss, exercise control, Mary Kay, or politics and religion. The businesses of door-to-door political canvassing or supplication to Jesus Christ have salvaged many a career.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2006-10-03 18:01:36

Somewhat OT, but while we’re talking alternative careers: If he had chosen to get into religion instead of politics, Bill Clinton would have been the most successful televangelist ever. Bet he would have been a top realtor as well.

 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2006-10-03 18:44:46

yup, or scAmway.

 
 
Comment by NVMojo
2006-10-04 00:26:29

I can’t help it, I’ve never liked realtors. I’ve always associated them with being liars, stupid, flashy, superficial, can’t find a job doing anything else types. And this was even before the Bubble.

Comment by NVMojo
2006-10-04 00:30:35

Forgot to add, Bulls* Warriors to the list.

 
 
 
Comment by truthbetold
2006-10-03 12:18:35

The same people who want to be real estate agents are the same people who flunk out of Pharmacy Tech school or think that the University Of Phoenix degree is actually worth something

Comment by Curtis G.
2006-10-03 17:32:58

Hey, my UOP degree was worth something! In fact, I daresay it was more cost- and time-effective than going to, say, UC Irvine (especially at my age). All any of my employers wanted to see was a diploma.

Now, National University, on the other hand… ;)

 
Comment by klauss
2006-10-03 22:25:41

UofP is pretty good actually. My wife got an
mba their and I thought the course material was equal to, if not better than mine IMO. The proffesors also had a lot of real world experience.

 
 
Comment by KIA
2006-10-03 12:18:39

Oh, and by the way, realtors are not going to go broke anytime soon provided they do their jobs properly and provide good advice to sellers. They need to step up, tell the sellers they missed the boat, and tell them what will actually sell in the current market. Once they do that, they will continue to get commissions on sales. Yes, the commissions will be lower, but not by much. A 3% commission (assuming 6% split) on $600,000.00 is $18,000.00 while the same commission on $500,000.00 is $15,000.00. They should be leading the downtrend, not trying to huff and puff and re-inflate a sagging market.

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-10-03 12:43:52

I have wondered this myself. Why talk up the market. The current stall in sales volumes is only killing those that rely on the transactional volumes to survive.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-10-03 13:04:39

They want to talk up the market because they have alot of FB’s that don’t have enough equity to sell but they need to.

Comment by Lisa
2006-10-03 13:55:10

They also want to talk up the market so folks keep buying.

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Comment by ajh
2006-10-04 05:46:47

They also talk up the market because they’ve drunk deep of the KoolAid and they need high prices to keep their OWN RE portfolio above water.

 
 
 
Comment by DAVID
2006-10-03 15:38:34

Decreasing prices you would think would cause realtors to be happy so they can move more product, however I think all the B?S that set record home sales will basically reverse causing even further decline in home sales, which will equal less homes sold per realtor, which will equal more realtors saying do you want fry’s with that.

 
 
Comment by Neil
2006-10-03 13:11:13

Assuming there is a 6% split. My next “buying agent” will be a discount over the internet. Let’s face it, if I find the home, what does the agent really do to earn that money?

But I agree, they should be leading it down to keep up the volume. The problem is, enough sellers are hitting their “lowest price” and thus just driving up inventory.

Realtors should wise up and dump sellers who won’t work the price.

Neil

Comment by turnoutthelights
2006-10-03 13:28:54

Why it’s different this time. ‘Enough sellers hitting their lowest price’ is at a price level far above the true market floor. HELOC’d, IO’d and consumered to death, their credit margins will not survive a sellable price. There is simply no support floor for their wishes, and this sinking tide will carry all the boats lower.

 
Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 18:43:02

After I get my Real Estate Brokers License in California it is my plan to only buy property for myself and for family and friends. I am going to give half of all my commisions back to them- why because I think that is all it is worth!!! I refuse to take advantage of good people because of a piece of paper gives me the power to negotiate beween buyers and sellers. I also do not plan on helping anyone into buying a property until about 2008. I couldn’t live with myself!!

Comment by IL_NC_IN_CA
2006-10-03 19:58:23

I know a Chinese immigrant who does this. She charges her friends a flat rate $500 fee for the transaction (in the Bay Area). She’s well on her way to becoming a millionaire in a few years and has builtup an incredible amount of goodwill.

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Comment by chuen
2006-10-03 22:26:41

Damn. I’m a Chinese immigrant myself, and I went to school for six years to get a Master’s only to end up in a mediocre paying government job and student loans half the amount of my annual income. But goodwill I do have.

 
 
 
 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-10-03 13:19:45

One common denominator, watching the BRAVO realtor reality series: every agent promises his seller a sky-high price, then talks the unsuspecting fool into reducing, reducing, reducing the price, AFTER obtaining a signed listing contract.

Comment by dwr
2006-10-03 13:45:20

Just following realtwhore SOP: get da sale done (no matter who I %^&%^ over) so I gets my commission!

 
Comment by Bubblewatcher
2006-10-03 14:03:14

That’s because they don’t actually care about their clients’ bottom lines. What they care about is their own commissions, and those are contingent on maximum turnover, which is best served by closing the deal at any reasonable price rather than waiting a few more weeks for the higher price.

Comment by davearoo
2006-10-03 15:04:27

If you read the book Freakonomics they address the issue of real estate agents. Agents are much more willing to hold out the few weeks for a few thou when selling their own house vs another person’s house…hmmmm.

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Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 18:53:03

Freakonomics does have a good spot on RE agents and their incentives. People act based upon the incentive they see and RE agents incentive is to ensure they make the sale!! The Sale at whatever cost the indiviual is willing to undertake!! It may even mean feeding the squarrils or adopting practices of other professions in order to receive their commision check.

 
Comment by chuen
2006-10-03 22:32:02

Freakonomics… bought the book because I liked the picture of the orapple on the cover. Great anecdotes throughout. Enjoyed the chapter about names… “Shithead (sha-teed)”… haha, great.

 
 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-10-03 15:42:15

Playing devil’s advocate here, but maybe they know that the agent that promises the highest sales price will be the one who gets the listing, whereas the honest agent who quotes the seller a lower, more realistic price, will lose out, due to greediness of sellers.

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Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-10-03 15:36:29

Does anybody still charge 6%? I thought 4-5% was SOP these days, and I’m dealing in the low $ stuff.

Comment by robin
2006-10-03 21:59:36

5% always available from the best and most successful agents in North Orange County.

 
 
Comment by Pismobear
2006-10-03 17:29:37

Yes and when they tell the seller to lower his price by $150k, after they pick themselves off the floor, the seller will list with the guy down the street after lowering it by $135k. Been there, done that.Agents won’t .

 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2006-10-03 12:22:36

Costco and Sam’s club have been flooded with applications for aisle finger food servers.
A friend of mine who works at Costco human resources says most of these applicants are from out of work Real Estate agents.

Comment by novasold
2006-10-03 12:39:09

Really?

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-10-03 12:41:23

lmao!!!

 
Comment by LA notary
2006-10-03 13:08:46

A family member of mine works for a cosmetic company. She was filling 5 or 6 positions and had a little over 20 applicants. OVER half of them were from agents. The funny thing is due to their past experience with hiring RE agents, they won’t even consider them, she doesn’t even call them back.

Comment by moqui
2006-10-03 13:50:52

Just last week my wife accepted applications for an entry level dispatch job ($ 12.50 hr). She said half of the apps listed real estate or R/E related references. She interviewed one Bambi type that rolled hers eyes as she explained the job attributes.
She basically said the same thing as your family friend…

 
 
Comment by chuen
2006-10-03 22:34:40

If I had to work retail, I’d totally work at Costco - higher paid than most retail. If I had to work fast food, I’d do In’ n’ Out - can’t beat $9 bucks an hour starting for flipping burgers.

Comment by Shakes
2006-10-03 23:56:08

I haven’t had an In and Out Burger in almost 7 months it one of the things I miss most back home!!! The first week back I am going to grab my daughter (she can eat one quicker the I can) and have one THEY ROCK!!!!

Comment by CA renter
2006-10-04 00:19:18

Shakes,
That just makes me so sad (how long you’ve been gone). It must be amazingly difficult to be away from your family for so long. God bless you & all the others over there. Take care of yourself.

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Comment by James Bednar
2006-10-03 12:25:11

Part of the bubble aftermath will be an increase in the licensing standards for real estate agents. The barrier to entry is much too low.

In fact, in many areas it’s more difficult to become a hair stylist..

Harder To Become A Hair Stylist In New Jersey

Ever wonder why it’s more difficult to become a hair stylist than a real estate agent in New Jersey? So do I. Do New Jersey homebuyers even realize that their barber needed more hours of education than the person brokering a hundred thousand dollar transaction? Now, I’m not trying to say that cosmetology and hairstyling aren’t difficult. Having received a bad haircut or two in my day, I’m glad with the licensure requirements where they are, it’s the requirements for a real estate license that scare me.

The reason for licensing requirements are twofold. First, to ensure that the applicant has had appropriate training in the profession, and second to provide a barrier to entry. Why would you want a barrier to entry? It’s simply, it provides a level of consumer protection by ensuring the candidate is serious about the profession.

So is it harder to become a hair stylist or a real estate agent/broker in NJ? Let’s explore.

Comment by DinOR
2006-10-03 12:43:04

James Bednar,

LOL! We must have been “cross posting” there. The link puts it into real perspective. Oh and btw, the stylist doesn’t charge you 18K either! Hopefully as this “correction” drags on the disparity in their qualifications (and fees) will be brought more into the light.

 
Comment by Thomas
2006-10-03 12:47:51

So which is more likely to result in a bad haircut — a hairstylist, or a realtor who convinces you Real Estate Only Goes Up?

Comment by robin
2006-10-03 22:10:12

Funny!

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-10-03 15:15:02

State licensing boards have created the sleazepit which is the real estate game today.

Low entry standards created a glut for both agents and appraiser’s alike.

While we bash and paint with a wide bush, there are decent, honest hardworking people in both professions who have had their livelihoods virtually destroyed by the onslaught of johnny-come-lately lemmings who poured into the field in the last 4 years.

So we shouldn’t all be too sanctimonious.

This wash-out will ripple thru-out the economy.

The next job loss industry might be your own.

 
 
Comment by David
2006-10-03 12:30:06

Is There a Realtor Bubble?

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/09/is-there-realtor-bubble.html

David
Bubble Meter Blog

 
Comment by ric
2006-10-03 12:30:06

We bought our house 13 years ago. Back then, and as far back as I can recall before this boom, most real estate agents were the wives of dentists and doctors and such. It wasn’t the primary household income because it just didn’t pay that well or reliably. Houses didn’t sell that often and there was just not enough income in the game to make a reliable living off of it. The bubble changed all that, but like the prices, the volume, and everything else, this too will revert to the mean. All the newbies dreaming of riches will be puked out as the housing market heaves what it can not support. The lucky ones made a pile of cash. I hope they understood it for it what it was, a transient occurrence.

Comment by DinOR
2006-10-03 12:49:02

ric,

Well exactly. It was a great way for empty nesters to supplement their income. Retired teachers etc. The reason though that houses didn’t sell all that often 13 years back is b/c there was at the time only a ONE TIME exemption that allowed people over 55 to sell their now mostly empty home without capital gains consequences! Well hell, now that it’s every 2 years we’ve created a velocity of money (and easy access to it) that was bound to create sales volumes and ultimately made NAR one of the most powerful lobby groups in D.C. It didn’t always used to be that way as you point out.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2006-10-03 13:14:56

True story: When I was growing up, a neighbor went into real estate. It was the only job she was allowed to have by her husband. He would have had a nervous breakdown if word got out that his wife was actually working for a living, and, gasp, making money at it.

She went to work for an agency run by an elderly couple who were, shall we say, considered to be among the more socially acceptable people in our town. I don’t know if my neighbor ever made any money in real estate, but she did manage to keep up appearances of having a fashionable thing to do.

 
 
Comment by HonestAppraiser
2006-10-03 12:39:18

There are two shows.. I thought there was only one..
1)Flip that house. This one shows you what happens @ the end. Sells or not
2)Flip this house. This one has realtors say how much they would list it for with no conclusion.
I like seeing them get burnt. I get like a warm fuzzy feeling..

Comment by HonestAppraiser
2006-10-03 12:41:29

One show has a profesional flipper for 10 years giving guidence … Kirsten somethimg and she is HOT… much nicer then Mrs Suzi Wong…

Comment by UnRealtor
2006-10-03 13:36:07

The one with Kirsten is “Property Ladder.”

Also check out “Buy Me” on HGTV every Tuesday night.

It follows the sellers around as the offers come in. Seeing lowballs roll in, and watching the greedy sellers choke under double mortgage payments make my week.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2006-10-03 18:09:51

Yes, Kirsten is uber hot.

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Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-10-03 12:49:31

Yep, all warm and tingly.

 
 
Comment by VMAXER
2006-10-03 12:49:29

There’s a huge amount of inventory for sale out there. That’s a lot of potential commissions. The brokers have to get the prices down to where the buyers are. Trying to scare buyers into overpaying isn’t going to work anymore. It’s time they started giving sellers a reality check. If they didn’t sell last year, they missed the peak and the longer they wait, to drop prices, the worse it’s going to get for the seller. Sellers will be lucky to see last years prices again in ten years.

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2006-10-03 13:28:03

Amen. If they want to make money they need to stop blowin hot air up the sellers asses and tell them their house ain’t worth what it used to be, not even close. No more wishful thinking. And, if they don’t get on it and price agressively, it will be worth even less still. Wait ’til this equity bleed picks up momentum. But again, realtors do need to give their clients a reality check and tell them that it isn’t different this time. You are on the down side of a real estate cycle…..get used to it!

 
Comment by lineup32
2006-10-03 13:44:38

What buyers? 40% of the market was flippers and vacations homes: gone; 45% of the reminder was liar loans, soon to be history, so who are these NEW buyers?
1. conventional 20% down? how many at 600K
2. no liar loans: how many make 180K without any debt.
3. trading up from selling their current home?

Comment by Reuven
2006-10-03 13:53:03

It was obvious to me that “real people” weren’t buying homes in florida…it was all folks buying a second home/condo as a way of getting rich quick. Someone told me with a straight face that they picked up a property in Lake County (FL) to flip because they needed to pay for their kids upcoming college years…

That’s why there were all these articles in Florida papers about new schools–build on the projections based on new housing–with far fewer students enrolling than anticipated (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06270/725458-30.stm for instance).

There won’t be buyers at a lower price. There are no buyers at all!

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-10-03 14:39:33

I agree with you Reuven . In 2005 ,40% wer investor purchases driving up Florida by around 39% over all appreciation . About the same thing happened in Arizona .
The locust buyers are not buying now and the inventory continues to skyrocket . This goofs really thought this appreciation money was going to continue for another 5 years .

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2006-10-03 18:07:17

Strange. A relative just closed the sale on a house in St. Pete today. I guess they must have sold it to someone other than a “buyer.”

BTW, they got a price above the current median of listings for their neighborhood, sold it through a co-op realtor (2.5%) and had it on the market just a couple of days before getting a contract.

But, there are no buyers at all.

 
Comment by Reuven
2006-10-03 20:07:00

Did your relative bake cupcakes? Sometimes that works.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-10-03 13:25:44

Looking forward to “Million Dollar Foreclosures.”

But it’s good that realtor parasites are broadcast in all their glory — leaching off the wealth of others, and picking up $100K+ checks for 5-6 hours of “work.”

It was obvious before that realtors didn’t deserve 5-6%, and now the masses can see first hand the parasitic greed.

Comment by BanteringBear
2006-10-03 14:53:36

My sister told me of a girl she knows who went from a $25k per year job as a parts girl. , to making over $80k in one month, as a realtor. Cute girl, great personality, hideously overpaid.

Comment by Curtis G.
2006-10-03 17:40:39

I hope she was a good saver.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-10-03 18:37:43

She’ll be selling her parts again, soon!

Comment by IL_NC_IN_CA
2006-10-03 20:06:44

ROTFL.

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Comment by OB_Tom
2006-10-03 13:51:12

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/10/03/ap3063743.html

“Housing prices, slumping after a five-year boom, are projected to decline in half of the nation’s metropolitan areas, with the Northeast, Florida and California among the areas hardest hit.

The forecast by Moody’s Economy.com, a private research firm, presents one of the starkest views yet of the housing slowdown that has been gathering force in recent months.

The West Chester, Pa., forecasting firm projects that the median sales price for an existing home will decline in 2007 by 3.6 percent, which would be the first decline for an entire year in home prices since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The forecast is included in a 195-page report, “Housing at the Tipping Point,” which The Associated Press obtained before its general release on Wednesday.”

 
Comment by OB_Tom
2006-10-03 14:09:24

[Ray] Schuldenfrei? You must be joking! That means “Free from debt” in German (I think it could mean innocent as well?). They must have made it up!

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2006-10-04 05:18:41

I had a giggle over that one as well! I think they typo’d that name.
His real name is Ray Schuldenmacher.

 
 
Comment by Houstonstan
2006-10-03 14:39:23

Rename them “flop this house” or “Housing bladder” ?

 
Comment by Chris
2006-10-03 15:03:20

I’m watching an episode right now where a home in a neighborhood of $1.2 - $2 Million homes has the lady trying to sell the house for $2.95 Million. She rejects an offer for $2.39 Million because she won’t accept less than $2.6 million. I just checked realtor.com and the house is, of course, still listed but now at $2.49 Million! Good luck! LMAO, especially when you consider how long this house has been on the market!!!

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?frm=byxmls&xlid=1048245021&lnksrc=00045&poe=realtor

BTW, at $2.95 Million she was going to make $1.2 Million in profit. At this rate, she’ll be lucky if she makes any profit in the current market. And she still seems to not understand the hot market has gone cold.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-10-03 15:26:31

what about those hideous Montelongos in San Antonio on Flip that House? The four of them get me ill. The one guy is abusive and the women are bimbos. They use illegal labor too. For shame

Comment by wittbelle
2006-10-03 16:13:39

OMG!!! I just posted a message about them. It never showed up but, yes, they made me feel dirty. How ’bout that Rotweiller that was his character screener. If that was the case, it should have turned on him and bitten out his throat.

 
 
Comment by wittbelle
2006-10-03 16:10:04

I love this board. You guys are so funny. I watch all those real estate shows and I just can’t help feeling dirty afterwards. There was this one flipper show on the other day with this Hispanic family from Texas. The dominant brother referred to a flip as “lipstick on a pig” (oddly, the same reference used to describe that poor fat realtor draped in an American flag that someone on here posted a link to). What a dick and a sleeze. He made my skin crawl. I wouldn’t have bought a house from him in a million years. And I felt sorry for his wife and sister-in-law that acted like the sun rose and set in his sphincter. Stupid biatches.

 
Comment by cactus
2006-10-03 18:47:14

“Without a white-hot market to drive the plot, the producers of ‘Million Dollar Listing’ and other shows about real estate now have to rethink their formats. And a handful of real estate agents may start to wonder whether their careers as reality TV stars are over.”

I bet they film the dark side of the RE bust and do just as well as filming the boom times. It will be like when the media filmed the war in Kuwait, real time missle shots, etc. very exciting.

And then like the present war the filming will be prohibited or controlled as the US enters a deflationary depression.

Comment by Joe Momma
2006-10-03 21:34:11

It was very exciting unless one of those missiles came through your window and killed your children.

 
 
Comment by amoney
2006-10-03 19:54:07

One of the things I found most interesting about million dollar listing is that buying and selling RE is very emotional, and is really boils down to an ego clash. The buyer wants to pay X, the seller wants Y. The agents mitigate that - craft a compromise. To normal, rational humans, the agents are not needed for this. They have removed their ego, estimate the value, and negotiate. In the tv show it seems like some of these morons just pull a number out of the air or cling to a number their agent told them at the beginning like a lifesaver in the middle of the ocean. They refuse to be rational, to see reality and compromise and hence, no sale. There was the one guy who wanted to sell but would not accept some of the costs of repairs, or the one mom who said she could wait a few years to get her price. Damn straight she’ll be waiting a few years! The show is an a interesting study in human psychology.

Comment by FED Up
2006-10-03 21:15:28

On Million Dollar Listing the sellers are so greedy and the enablers (buyers) so ignorant I can’t watch the show without my blood pressure rising. I hope these types with their foolish behavior are burned in the process. Profitting so greatly with the initials offers but no, that’s not enough I deserve more more more!!! I am such a financial genius. ugh

 
 
Comment by cyppok
2006-10-03 22:36:45

I actually took a sales persons exam and got a paper two years ago but didn’t do anything I was hoping they could teach me how to interact with people but they (re people) were like “What are we supposed to hold your hand?” I spent about 4 or 5 days there and left cause it was toxic. I’m in NYC btw.

There is a wonderful paper that came out in the ST.Louis fed reserve. (about housing) wheelkock or wheelock was the guy. It shows the buble and non-accrual loans in the bubles in 80’s and 90’s in U.S. very wonderful paper. There is about a year after the peak falling off and then non-accruals become foreclosures and freefall occurs. Page 10 massachusets illustrates it well.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/09/Wheelock.pdf

 
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