‘Starting To Feel The Money-Pinch’ In California
The Record Searchlight reports from California. “Redding ranked 16th on a list of the top 30 U.S. metropolitan markets expected to suffer the sharpest declines in home prices. The gloomy forecast presents one of the starkest views yet of the housing slowdown that has been gathering force in recent months, but some north state real estate agents see it as a buying opportunity.”
“Redding’s median price for a home is forecast to fall by 11.8 percent. ‘That’s about right,’ Ron Largent, agent in Redding, said Thursday. He thinks prices could fall ‘another 10 percent’ from where they were a month ago before leveling out. ‘This is an excellent time for buyers,’ Largent said.”
“Home sales slowed and prices fell in Shasta County in August. The median sales price was $245,000 compared with $269,000 in July and $285,000 a year ago, according to Dataquick.”
“Some homes are likely to see sharper price declines, said veteran Redding real estate broker Rob Middleton. ‘Houses that have a bad floor plan or that are on a busy street are apt to suffer more,’ he said.”
“One reason Redding’s prices are softening is the cooling ardor of investors. A year ago, Redding led the nation in the percentage of homes sold to investors, 22 percent, according to LoanPerformance. Through May of this year, 15.4 percent of homes were bought by investors. That was still nearly double the national average of 8.9 percent.”
“The forecast of a price decline ’sounds like old news, or at least we’re right at the end of it,’ said Greg Lloyd, broker in Redding. Lloyd is also president of the Shasta Association of Realtors. ‘We probably peaked out very early this year and I would suspect we have hit the valley floor as we speak.’”
“There are about 2,000 homes now on the market in Shasta County, Largent said. Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives such as free backyard landscaping, pools, 100 percent financing and a chance to win a car.”
The Whittier Daily News. “A research firm predicts the first decline for an entire year in home prices since the Great Depression of the 1930s, but local industry officials have a more tempered view.”
“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said California has already weathered six year-over-year declines in its median home price, beginning in 1990 and running through 1996. ‘The biggest decline was 4.5 percent in 1993,’ she said. ‘The median price went from $197,030 to $188,240. California has had a very different experience.’”
“But Appleton-Young doesn’t believe the current transition in the market will be over quickly.”
“She said there will be a slowing economic growth because of the downturn in housing, but it won’t turn into a recession. ‘Is it possible? Sure,’ Appleton-Young said. ‘But is it probable? I don’t think so.’”
“Steve Johnson, director of Metrostudy Southern California in Riverside, said California’s housing bubble isn’t going to burst anytime soon. ‘This is not a repeat of the 1990s,’ he said. ‘That was a perfect storm because you had fires, floods, riots and a huge decline in aerospace spending combined with defense cutbacks and base closings.’”
“Robert and Marcia Mosqueda always wanted to live in Whittier. Their dream came true about nine weeks ago when then moved after living in unincorporated Los Nietos for 17 years.”
“But the move came at a price. They bought a ‘fixer-upper’ in the Whittier’s Uptown area for about $610,000. It’s given them a mortgage of about $4,500, double what they were paying, and it’s more than 30 percent of their income. ‘It’s a big sacrifice, but it’s worth it to have peace of mind,’ Marcia Mosqueda said.”
“Broker Patrick Hart said the rising prices shown in the census data may be starting to go the other way. ‘I don’t expect we’ll lose more than 20 percent,’ he predicted.”
“Still, declining prices may cause problems should there be foreclosures, he said. The Consumer Credit Counseling Services of Orange County is seeing more people coming in with financial problems, said Kelly Rogers. ‘We can’t say it’s because of housing, but the numbers are up,’ Rogers said. ‘People are starting to feel the money pinch.’”
The Orange County Register. “Orange County’s economy will keep growing next year, but not much, Wells Fargo Bank’s senior economist predicted Thursday. ‘The good news is, I think Orange County will be able to avoid a recession, but just barely,’ Scott Anderson told a group of bank guests.”
“Anderson attributed much of the economic drop-off over the next year to the housing slowdown. High prices and affordability challenges will continue to hamper the local housing market, he said. ‘I think there will be one year (of price) decline next year, but I’m not projecting any big collapse,’ Anderson said.”
“Irvine-based homebuilder Standard Pacific Corp. has notified employees that it is eliminating dozens of jobs amid reports of lagging home sales across the nation. Company officials couldn’t be reached to confirm the layoffs in at least three Southern California divisions and one in South Florida.”
“The company’s finances have been hit this year by a slowdown in new home orders and rising cancellations, fueled by a backlog of unsold homes in the existing-homes market, company officials said.”
- From Realtor Magazine Online
Daily Real Estate News | October 2, 2006
No More Hiding Days on Market by Relisting
RE Infolink, the company that operates the multiple listing service for the five California counties that make up the Silicon Valley, has changed a policy to make relisting a home more difficult.
Previously, all it took was paying a $25 fee to earn a new MLS number and hide the “days on market” figure. Now all homes on the MLS will display the correct days on market number unless they have been taken off the market for more than 30 days.
The change was prompted by a recommendation this summer by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Relisting can mislead consumers, and it also corrupts the integrity of data on the multiple listing service, says June Barlow, general counsel for the CAR.
“We’re real persnickety about keeping the data clean,” Barlow says.
Okay, so all they have to do is pull the house off the market for 31 days, relist, and presto! It’s a new listing!
It’s a good way to hide inventories too. Homes not sold within 2 or 3 months will be hidden for over a months. The number of those hidden homes should be released to the public too.
alot of news from California, the final frontier. anyhow, it doesnot matter if the house is taken off and relisted because the buying public usually goes over listing weekly if not daily. I can always spot a house that’s been on the market before and not sell. some of these sellers are just dumb to the point of being hilarious. hahaha.
They can continue these little tricks, it’s only going to make life worse for the REIC foot soldiers. A smart agent would refuse to relist a house without substantial price reduction. Relisting with the same price is just wasting their own time.
30 days isn’t that long but it’s great news. Sellers will have to be serious and name a fair price, no more fishing. It will help define the market and clear up confusion.
The buyers name the price, the sellers need to accept that it is fair.
Buyers don’t sit down in a dark room and set a fixed price.
A home staged, and with a good relator will get better offers.
Buyers with bad attitudes that nickel and dime the seller are going to find themselves at a disadvantage.
not nickel and dime, more like 20-30% the seller would be more like it. haha.
You sound like the kind of dope that would first, fall for, and then overpay for, a staged house.
Hmm, during run-up sellers with bad attitudes (promise to feed the squirrels) did just fine. As inventory expands and sellers get desperate, buyers with bad attitudes will do just fine, too.
“Buyers don’t sit down in a dark room and set a fixed price.” Financially responsible buyers do sit down and set a fixed spending limit ( less than 25% of there income going towards total cost of owning a home.) There is no shortage of homes on the market. Homes are only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it. If you only recieve one offer on your home (very common) you should feel lucky and accept that that is how much your house is worth.
“A home staged, and with a good relator will get better offers.
Buyers with bad attitudes that nickel and dime the seller are going to find themselves at a disadvantage. ”
If the sellers have such an advantage why do they even need to stage their home and for that matter why do they need a realtor.
Ummm… would you mind getting a new nick like happy renter 428 or something like that? I have been posting as Happy_Renter and I do not want people to be confused. Thanx…..
Please define “bad attitude”. I’m assuming you’re lumping together anyone that doesn’t want to buy overpriced home, and if that’s the case, you are one lame ass pud-whacker.
“Buyers with bad attitudes that nickel and dime the seller are going to find themselves at a disadvantage.”
I have a bad attitude and I don’t feel disadvantaged at all. I’ll just keep renting this nice 3/2 SFH at a fraction of the cost of owning until prices come down where I feel like buying. It actually somehow seems like an advantage in my eyes but what do I know?
less than 25% of gross income is a bit stringent. If you have a high income ($100K+) I think you can push to 35% as long as your total debt ratio (debt maintenance to monthly income) is under 35% and you have steady income and sufficient cash reserves to cover lean times.
But that means your cars, student loans, credit cards etc. are all paid off and need to stay that way: no filling up your big new house with shiny new stuff bought on credit. And good luck with all that.
You ain’t seen nothing of a bad attitude yet. You should know which way the pressuer lies. Make sure you let it be known your first offer is your best offer. And your counter should be measured and lowered. This is how you teach the dumb the lessons of the market. This works in far more areas than real estate.
You get the New nick name I’ve been posting as happy renter for years.
Dear Huggybear
If you don’t like sellers and want to rent — be my guest.
Others;
Assuming all things almost equal, being nice to people really does pay off. It could mean the difference in closing on home you *really* want and someone else does too. It’s totally free and also good manners.
Our particular circumstance, the seller was an ass, and my wife wanted to walk over crap that amounted to $1,800 or far less than 1% of the sale.
We were pushed to an emotional limit over really nothing and today, I’d regret not living here over that small matter.
Things being about equal, I’d probably buy a staged home over an unstaged home that’s not prepared. I’d insepect both. Whenever I sell, I’ll stage the home. It works. So does cleaning a car before you sell it.
Why not take every advantage when selling or buying?
Staging is just one of those useless cottage industries that “works” when times are good.
Like the gourmet cooks the tel-com companies used to hire to make their employess more productive, staging companies will soon be thrown in the gimmick pile.
There is a difference between cleaning a car and hiring a family to sit in it when a buyer shows up. Staging works, but only on fools who think 1 bdr condos are worth 500K in the first place.
My best buddy just spent around $1200 for ’staging’ his 650K 2/2 condo in Seattle’s Pike-Pine corridor just E of downtown. It’s now been on the market 5 weeks, no offers. His realtor said most of the open-house visitors were carrying shopping sacks. That suggests they were just in the area and weren’t really serious. In an increasingly ‘anxious’ market, too much staging might actually look like too much conspicuous consumption and be a turn-off.
Like she said, staging only works on the special type of fool that thinks a 800 sq ft condo could be worth a half million. Or people named aztrias.
aztrias - It’s don’t dislike sellers. We sold in Feb and are waiting at least a couple of years before we consider buying again. Renting makes too much financial sense right now. The clear trend is for prices to crash. Have you ever seen this Schiller graph? If you look at this graph you’ll see home prices have a ways to correct downward:
http://tinyurl.com/heaf7
Huggybear thanks much. Read that article when it came out. It looks like a atmospheric CO2 concentration graph. Just ordered the 2nd edition book with updated info.
Thought about selling and renting but enjoy the place to much too to move. Sellng out isn’t a bad decision at all — it takes some energy to move — I hate doing it.
What! Did you buy in 2005!
i thought there was a policy of “don’t feed the trolls”
“Through May of this year, 15.4 percent of homes were bought by investors [in Redding]. That was still nearly double the national average of 8.9 percent.”
Where’d they drag out the 8.9%? Is this new? I’ve heard of it broken down by locations, but not nationally. So once the word gets out that RE is not a good investment, 8.9% of your buyers just disappeared!
And 70% already own a home. The numbers aren’t looking good.
A home or two…
and the other 21.1% are regulars here at bens place.doesnt look good.downtown redding looks real nice.lake shasta,sacramento river king salmon fishing.hot as hell in the summer though.
Before relying on the reported percentage of investors purchasing property we should all go briefly to iamfacingforeclosure.com and then add Casey’s fraudulently financed 8 properties to that percentage. Now let’s take Casey Serin and multiply him by about 50,000. Maybe then we’ll arrive at an accurate assessment of the percentage of specuvestor purchased properties in a given area in a given year.
Investors vs. owner occupants….the stats are totally skewered. Think about all the liar’s loans that went down with investors posing as O.O.s I bet the real number is double what the stat lists for the nation.
i thought the reported statistic was 40% of properties purchased NATIONWIDE in 2005 (and a little bit less in 2004) were by “investors”
which makes these 8%, 15% numbers in places like Redding look like B.S. Probably closer to 50%
my bad. didn’t see 8.9% is “2006 year to date.” probably true.
NOW, it’s different in California because we can weather DECLINES. Sheesh. But I could swear everyone in Calif. said prices never go down.
I wonder how many people were foreclosed on or had to sell during the time california was “weathering” a housing decline?
this time we’ve got a negative savings rate and heavy debt both in housing and outside of housing.
in palmdale every 5th house was boarded up with hud repo attached.it will be way worse this time back in 91 you could rent your house out and lose 200 a month but with tax rite off you broke even and this with a 10.5% fixed rate.people there now are getting mortgages equal to their take home pay.
- ‘in palmdale every 5th house was boarded up with hud repo attached’
Folks were actually ‘Homesteading’ the houses. They would move in, change the locks and turn on the utilities!
I lived in Palmdale for a short time in ‘97-’98 time frame. The neighborhood I lived in was a brand new subdivion. The rental I was in was of course occupied but the one next to it had been abandoned (stripped of appliances, etc.).
Just as you say, ever 5th or so house was vacant. It was a real wild west situation out there. You had elderly seniors and young couples who bought homes at the peak and cared for their yards living next door to Section 8 families with only sand and weeds in their front yard. It was well known that Section 8 families from LA could rent (or buy) the house for next to nothing. You gotta love Palmdale/Lancaster!
There were approximately 20,000 foreclosures during the 1990s in Lancaster alone, out of approximately 40,000 housing units. 1996 and 1997 were the worst years, with about 6000 foreclosures during those two years. Building activity also trickled to about 300-400 homes per year, compared to 2800 last year in 2005.
She forgot about foreclosures…it’s a going trend. High number of foreclosures will certainly drag the price down.
“But I could swear everyone in Calif. said prices never go down. ”
They said the same thing before and during the last crash.
And what is the median price of a home in CA now 550K-600K? No bubble there…
jim “And what is the median price of a home in CA now 550K-600K? No bubble there…”
Yea, but look on the bright side 2-3% of the people can afford a 30 fixed at 6%.
what gets glossed over in her statement is that during the 90-96 RE downturn, prices declined 30-40% over the duration of that downturn. So a house that sold for 500K at the peak has a haircut down to $350K-$300K. The reality of taking a bath of $150-200K detracts from the “cheeriness” she tries to project in her statement.
And now she’s thinking that there won’t be a recession makes me 100% sure there will be one. Leslie Appleton-Young, a great contrarian indicator!!!
I actually sold my house in Feb 1990 located in Manhattan Beach Ca for 420K. Those house’s tanked over 5 years to a low of about 320K.
What point did you get back in?
Lucky you SoBay. I bought in Jan 1990 (divorce proceeds from other home sale). Sacramento. $174,000, with 25% down, so I had a 75% value, $130,000 mortgage. By 1994, rates dropped, but so did my value. I went to Great Western to do a “streamlined” refi and they made me put $10,000 CASH IN to qualify. Yes folks, not a cash OUT refi, but the other way around. It hurt.
By the way, I still own that same house. Value got to $450,000 by June 2005, now down to abaout $375,000, so we have a 20% drop in values over 17 months. The house has always been about 5-10% above the median here, so it is a good gauge.
The point: Previous declines were driven by a housing bubble correction and a national recession with a disproportionate number of high playing jobs lost from CA’s defense and aerospace industries.
In areas where there is job growth, West Bay Area, I can’t see a crash happening. In commuter towns, santa rosa, salinas, tracy, modesto, manteca…..prices are going down.
The reason you can’t see a crash happening is the same reason the horse runs over the cliff: because of the blinders of your mind. Even more frightening is the blinders over your entire mind. It’s been mentioned many times on this blog that a large number of the new jobs created in CA (someone can dig up the figure) is real estate related. That’s what has replaced those Aerospace jobs. People selling each other houses. Agents, brokers, loan officers, appraisers, etc ad nauseum.
Instead of simply taking a quote from an article, think it over and back it up with facts. That’s what people on this blog do and it’s what separates bloggers from TROLLS.
oops “blinders over your eyes”.
I posted an article on the West Bay Area from SFGATE dude. People got all pissy about it because it didn’t jib. It wasn’t a doom and gloom article.
I’m not talking about Modesto or Central Valley commuter towns. I even said those commuter town would lose value. but I don’t see the West Bay Area market crashing. We’d need a recession for that and I don’t see any data saying it will happen.
Is the convention wisdom here that CA and the Bay Area is a real estate driven economy?
First, three Nobel prizes just went to Bay Area residents. All are real estate agents - right?
Andrew Z. Fire, George Smoot, Roger D. Kornberg
You can find all three of them at Century 21.
And here’s some…data… smells good.
VALLEY JOBS KEEP CLIMBING
Source: SCOTT DUKE HARRIS, Mercury News
Silicon Valley’s economy continued to turn in modest job growth in August — a heartening sign of the region’s ongoing recovery from the tech bust of 2000, economists said. The California Employment Development Department said the addition of 2,600 jobs in Santa Clara and San Benito counties — a gain of 0.3 percent from July — marked the first time since 2000 that the region’s employment had climbed each month since January.
Published on September 16, 2006, Page 1C, San Jose Mercury News (CA)
What kind of jobs?
Real estate jobs - right? ….just joking
There isn’t any sign of a recession like in 90-95. The “Abstract” says job creation is getting stronger since the bust in 2000.
The article is $2.25. any takers?
I get a ton of recruiter e-mail from the Bay Area for IT jobs. They just can’t get people to move to the land of the $800K fixer for an $80K programming job these days, so most of those jobs are eventually outsourced or moved to other states where programmers can buy a house and send their kids to a good public school. Go figure!
It doesn’t matter if you have job growth or not–I suspect the job growth is primarily in construction and other RE related fields–what matters is that you have people in the “West Bay Area”–whatever that is—and in the Bay Area taking out option ARMs (which are already starting to reset), interest only loans, pulling $$$ out of their “houses” like an ATM, or banking on selling in the next couple years as retirement nears to move to Texas; I make almost $100K a year and can’t afford a “condo” on a standard fixed loan—go figure!!! Yeah…prices won’t come down–what happens to the family making the average out here of $60-70K???? Oh, I know–they get one of those special exotic loans to buy a $1.5 million dolllar single family home and brag to everyone about how smart they are because they “own” their home– California is different–it must be the weather!
Those stats are junk. Santa Clara Co. jobs are -85Ku since Sep’02, -150K since Sep’00. Even y-o-y was down in July before getting a little bounce in Aug’06. There is not up trend. Maybe there will be news when it stops going down?
See the numbers at:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id66.html
See “What’s really happening” at:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com
“Is the convention wisdom here that CA and the Bay Area is a real estate driven economy?”
That certainly appears to be the case in Orange County.
16% of their jobs are directly related to real estate. (Construction, finance, sales, etc.). A higher percentage would, of course, encompass indirect jobs, such as furniture retailers, etc.
Here’s something to consider: From 2000-2005, 46% of the jobs created in O.C. were those DIRECTLY related to the real estate industry, which says nothing of those new jobs indirectly related. 16% of their economy was responsible for almost half of their job growth.
Yes, California, on the whole, is very dependent on the real estate industry.
The thing that is so maddening to me regarding this bubble is not the fact that prices ran up so high, but that they did so at the expense of the average family, and with no regard to the fact that wages are stagnant or declining. aztrias-you have provided no meaningful data which suggest that San Francisco’s prices are fundamentally sound, and sustainable given median income. Either make a compelling argument, or shove those rose colored glasses where the sun don’t shine. I am sick and tired of shills like you perpetuating this scam.
Where is “West Bay Area” ? Is that San Francisco? Or Pacific Ocean?
“West Bay” usually means the bay side (not the ocean side) of the peninsula, not including San Francisco proper. West Bay stretches from roughly South SF/San Bruno/SFO Airport to wherever you think the “South Bay” starts… I dunno, Redwood City or Palo Alto maybe.
Nobody who actually lives here calls it the “West Bay”. It’s called “The Peninsula”.
Bzzt! Lots of people call it West Bay. That is not so common, but to tie in some relevance one of the best concrete contractors in the area for some time was West Bay Concrete. Recently they split up into two ongoing concerns with father and son doing business independently. Sorry for the plug, but good concrete contractors are worth their weight in you name it.
Nope, sorry dude; it’s either “East Bay” or “The City” or the “Peninsula” or “South Bay”.
Been here for 30 years, never heard “West Bay” until this troll showed up. Must be a Bay Area newbie thing.
SF, San Mateo and northern parts of Santa Clara county (e.g Palo Alto, Mountin View, Sunnyvale).
I live in Sunnyvale. A quick Zip Reality search shows some price reduced listings.
However, here homes will sell at the right price relatively fast….
*But*
I also have some property in 34786 (Orange County, FL.)
I’m not so sure if homes there will sell at any price…I’m seeing zillow listings for 180-200 days! And people are already under water from the price they paid two years ago, if you factor in transaction cost and carrying costs…
Fortunately, I don’t care! This isn’t “investment” property and I don’t care what it’s “worth”.
I’ve been looking at Sunnyvale near MTV and inventory in that area is still moving very fast (in a week) when priced right.
I hate to admit it, I thought OC was The OC and not Disney’s OC.
There’s a Disney in each of the OCs, both Florida and California. (I used to work for them, so I spent years flying back and forth between the Oranges.)
Problem is, most of the job growth over the last 4-5 years has been from RE (construction, mortgage brokers, RE agents, escrow, title, etc.) plus the indirect growth from RE (Home Depot, Lowe’s, flooring companies, etc.). These industries are going to shed jobs over the next few years. As these people lose their jobs, they will obviously not be going out to eat, buying new clothes or cars, going on vacation, etc., which means that all of these other, unrelated industries are going to feel a little pinch, too. And, as ARMs reset, those people will have less to spend on these items. Are there any other industries (in SF, OC, LA, or your other “premier” locations) that are going to be adding jobs to make up for those that are lost? I don’t see any.
And, as the crash happens in the commuter towns, some in those expensive places will move out to the commuter towns in order to reduce their mortgage expense. So, the crash very well may start in those commuter towns and work in (others have predicted this), but all areas of California will be hit. Some areas will be hit harder than others, but I doubt that any area will escape without suffering what most would consider a “crash” when it is all said and done.
Seriously, if you’re going to troll here, you best not spout realtor cliches like “…but the last downturn was due to loss of aerospace jobs..”. That has been refuted here so many times it is not funny. Come back with some better material or get lost.
There will be relative price declines throughout California. Yes, the Valley will be harder hit due to speculators fleeing, but there will still be a considerable number of people who will make the decision to commute into the Bay Area to work from the Valley, due to relative affordability. If prices in the Valley are going to drop from 400K to 200K, prices in the Bay Area would also likely drop, say from 700K to 500K — and that’s more than enough for people to feel the pain — it’ll be painful enough for them to consider it as a crash.
Suzanne- the only one in California who said prices never go down were the young and inexperienced . Most of us have been thru several declines, not much different than the stock market really.
I do recall last year and earlier LAY was talking about how there is no national RE bubble and how nationally we never had a national decline. Did she think she was working at the NAR or CAR….
I don’t believe Scott Anderson and his quote about Orange County being able to avoid a recession. With so much of the local economy in RE (read Lansner’s articles at the OC Register), it’s ridiculous to think we won’t feel the pain here.
I agree with you. This downturn will not spare any area, it’s just a matter of time. With the house median of 600k or more in OC, most recently buyers will not afford to keep the house in the long run. I don’t really see how OC or LA can avoid the house-pinch the next few years. I notice houses in my area were only sold when they were 15%-20% below other comparable listings. I doubt it’s the worst scenario yet. Most experts agree the worst time would be late 2007 or even in 2008. What prices would be then?
we live in south orange county. anecdotal evidence - my wife owns here own landscaping business. The amount of work her and her contractors buddies have been getting is minuscule compared to a year to 2 or 3 years ago. She was very successful those fat years and we have a nice nest egg to turn into a down payment - But we need to wait until either my salary catches up or a mortgage makes more sense than renting.
As soon as the lending standards switch gears, we’ll finally see some ‘normal’ markets - in 5-7 years we’ll be expecting the bottom and more normal times. Or longer depending how bad things turn. The borrowing has got to stop.
Note - we have no car debt and no credit card debt and no school loans - which sure is a nice way to live right now.
Ben, you may have set a record for stupid, CYA, self-serving comments on a single post.
The main theme I’m taking away from all the talking heads these days is “yes, there WILL be a slowing of the economy” which is progress from their recent “no bubble” denial. But they keep defending: “no recession”. These must be the current talking points to try to talk the economy out of a recession. Is it possible to talk an economy out of a recession?
‘progress from their recent “no bubble” denial’
You’re right. Just as they’ve evolved from “no bubble” after house sales fell off a cliff and price declines were patently obvious, they will evolve from “no recession” when the number of jobs produced falls off a cliff and GDP growth is revised sharply downward… which should happen… oh, I don’t know, maybe in November when the new reports revise all the numbers for Aug-Oct downward.
Nope - the market does what it needs to do, just as the housing bubble is bursting despite everyone trying to claim there was no bubble. But economists as a group almost never forecast a recession, and only admit there is one when it is undeniable.
These were the same knucklehead economists that said 10% appreciation is sustainable, no price declines without job losses in 2 sectors, and denied a bubble.
Why should anyone believe them now?
Every economist should have to publish a track record.
Maybe there is a very rich RE bear that could endow a foundation to track, document and publicize the very wrong predictions and arm journalists with the information to ask them why we should believe them now?
10% isn’t sustainable. It’s doubling your money every 7 years. That means, for instance, that if you buy a $500,000 home at age 25, it will be worth $20,000,000 when you’re 64 years old.
Even the rosiest calculation for the historic ROI for the total stock market is only 8% or so (and that’s with fudging, like starting at 1930….)
we’re not rich but we’re trying.
Try
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id66.html -and-
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id141.html
Thanks!
“These were the same knucklehead economists that said 10% appreciation is sustainable, no price declines without job losses in 2 sectors, and denied a bubble.”
LOL! You saw that dude over at Lansner’s blog, huh?
Now, they’re saying “No RECESSION without job losses in at least two sectors.”
Next, they’ll be saying “No DEPRESSION without job losses in at least two sectors. At least, not a serious depression, anyhow…”
“The median price went from $197,030 to $188,240. California has had a very different experience.”
Now, the median in California is probably 3x….In southern cali the median is close to 700k and in SF it is higher….and you don’t think prices will fall a lot? what a bunch of cheerleaders trying to avoid a collapse
My thought is that 20 or 30% off 700k is alot more money than 20% off of 197k . A loss of 200 to 250k is alot of money .(a quarter of a million dollars .) Heck ,the average house in LA County went up by at least a quarter of a mil the last 4 or 5 years .
I bet the average saver making 50K a year would take 40 years to save that kind of money .
good point
A loss of 200 to 250k is alot of money.
If your house was “worth” $200k in 1995, it’s “worth” $600k now, and will be “worth” $350k in 2008, how is that a “loss”? (I suppose it can be a loss if you think like a federal legislator: “We asked for a 5% budget increase, but we only got 3%; therefore, we’ve had a 2% budget cut.”)
I guess I was thinking about people who bought recently and might lose that much money . If you bought pre-2000 or so your not going to lose .
Agreed.
Geez, I have to say every time some one brings up the early buyers. That is assuming that they didn’t pull equity out of the house for:
Another House
Vacations
His and Hers Hummers/Escalades/Mercedes/BMWs
Jet Skis
Boob Jobs
Etc.
Yes, gotta keep reminding everyone that total homeowner’s equity as a percentage of value has actually declined during the boom.
I’m thinking of starting an implant repo business for the upcoming recession.
I think when most people do their personal net worth or balance sheets, whether formal or informal, they value houses, like other assets, at something close to market value. It is rational to operate on a mark-to-market basis. If it is worth $600K now and is worth $350K at some time in the future, yes, you have sustained a $250K loss in the period between now and then. It’s not analagous to the base-line budgeting example.
I don’t think it’s valid to EVER count the house you’re living in as part of your “net worth.” Even if it’s all paid for. Because you have to live somewhere…..
My free and clear house definately increases my net worth. Even if I calculate a 50% loss potential. Thinking Logically, until I can’t sell my house for a penny and/or rent for less than taxes and insurance the house is an asset. Even if it had Zero market value the monthly rent I don’t pay for it accrues to my net worth every 30 days.
Even if it had Zero market value the monthly rent I don’t pay for it accrues to my net worth every 30 days.
So let me get this straight: if someone were willing to pay you a billion gazillion dollars for your house, and you could rent it for 2 thousand a month, you wouldn’t sell?
“average savers” there aren’t anymore out there are there?
“Redding’s median price for a home is forecast to fall by 11.8 percent. ‘That’s about right,’ Ron Largent, agent in Redding, said Thursday. He thinks prices could fall ‘another 10 percent’ from where they were a month ago before leveling out. ‘This is an excellent time for buyers,’ Largent said.”
Lock in these equity losses today! You too can be underwater in just minutes! And I’ve got this great house new to the market that my wife and I bought a year ago…
Oh, yeah! Now this is the guy I want giving me real estate advise.
- ‘“Redding’s median price for a home is forecast to fall by 11.8 percent.’
That’s BS….they have fallen that much in the last 6 months.
I’m thinking 40 - 60 percent throughout most of California. 11.8 % seems a bit off. I believe he meant to say 11.8314159265358 % and should have been more accurate
And how can it be an excellent time for buyers if he predicts prices will drop another 10%, hell for many that is a years earnings, never mind years of Tax and Insurance savings.
i will post ist here also to make sure that nobody misses this site
this is the best i have ever seen.
a comiplation from the tapes with lereah, shiller bernanke, etc
over 70 minutes of superb bubblehistoy video´s alle the famous quotes “not a bubble, a baloon” call to arms at lows etc.
spread this one around. this is a must see!!!!!!!!
here is the famous “baloon-video” starring lereah at its best. the other 10 videos are on the site as well.
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=18
It’s given them a mortgage of about $4,500, double what they were paying, and it’s more than 30 percent of their income
Incomes must be great in California!
I am just trying to figure out who the heck would want to live in Whittier. That place sucks…I’d rather live in Riverside than that dump! And for $4,500 mo. ? I just dont get it.
Depends on which part of Whittier. There is a good area in the hills near the country club and a bad area near the freeway. You can keep Riverside.
A small area near the Orange County line is not bad nor is the neighborhood around Michigan Park. Of course, it might take more that 610K to get in there today.
- From Whittier…buenos dias senorita
Let’s say the $4,500 is a full 40% of those folks’ income. That means they’re making $11,250 per month, or $135,000 per year. The median family income in even the wealthiest cities in OC isn’t that high (although of course there are plenty of people making that and more). Agreed — why in the world are these people in Whittier? It’s nicer than the surrounding armpits, but not by that much.
Whittier? They always wanted to live in “Whittier?”
Not Malibu. Not Santa Monica or the Palisades. Not even, I dunno, West Hollywood.
Whittier?
And to think, such modest folks have to pay so much to make their dream come true…
There is some seriously absurd home asset price overvaluation going on in the LA county subprime burgs. Paying $610,000 for a fixer in Whittier, even in the prime part of town, is just one example. Checking on dataquick august figures shows prices approaching half a million($500,000) in some notorious LA slumzones as Maywood, Bell,La Puente,Southgate,Lynwood,East LA,ect.
Going up the scale a bit, Downey shows prices in $600-$700 range and YOY around 10-16%. Downey is an in-betweener-some solid stable middle class areas but also some problem areas, similar to Pasadena, torrance. Long Beach and other in-between communities. Whittier is an in-beteener. Monterrey park has a small hilltop area with nice upscale ranch homes but a quick descent takes you into slumville east LA. This has resulted in AVe sfh prices in Mon park to slide into the low to mid $500,000 range, in line with the surrounding lower-end areas.
It really becomes absurd and surreal when you have 1/2 million dollar prices in the Gang and graffiti infested zones of LA , and on the other side of the Galaxy in the Westside LA areas 1 million dollars buys a bottom-of-the -barrel fixer.
LA is in fact both overrated and overpriced, throughout the entire county region, particularly the slumzone areas. The correction back to realistic prices will take at least several years, and probably longer.
They only said it was “more than 30 percent” of their income. They didn’t say what percent, could be 100%.
This true, and it also did not say how many loand will reset at an amount exceeding 100% of their income. I earn a good income as a senior software engineer, and would be very stressed if I had to pay $4500 a month towards a mortgage, keeping in mind there is also our Uncle to pay.
‘We probably peaked out very early this year and I would suspect we have hit the valley floor as we speak.’”
___________________________________
Another clown calling for the bottom - when he never mentioned the top!
Yep, what a clown. Add two years to his call of a bottom and then it might be right. But he needs the commissons $$ to make payments on his BMW and executive home. These self serving RE guys are too much.
I’m willing to bet at the bottom he will be screaming real estate is a horrible investment and he would never recommend it to anyone.
It amazes me that these asswipes actually are saying this is the bottom, like they REALLY know. The only sure thing we know about is their high level of stupidity.
Our large brained, hairless descendents will dig up this quote on a hard drive some day and marel at our idiocy.
That’s *marvel* not marel. Case in point.
Yes, buy this stock right now. It may fall 10% more but it is a good time to buy.
This part really jumped out at me:
“Irvine-based homebuilder Standard Pacific Corp. has notified employees that it is eliminating dozens of jobs amid reports of lagging home sales across the nation. Company officials couldn’t be reached to confirm the layoffs in at least three Southern California divisions and one in South Florida.”
“The company’s finances have been hit this year by a slowdown in new home orders and rising cancellations, fueled by a backlog of unsold homes in the existing-homes market, company officials said.”
Here in Tucson, there’s a lot of Standard Pacific building underway, including one huge project that’s conveniently located just north of the Rillito River bike path. Last time I went by it, I saw a flurry of construction activity. But, among the finished houses, I didn’t see any that appeared to by occupied.
“Company officials couldn’t be reached”
layoffs included those anwsering the phone
“Redding’s median price for a home is forecast to fall by 11.8 percent.” vs. “Home sales slowed and prices fell in Shasta County in August. The median sales price was $245,000 compared with $269,000 in July and $285,000 a year ago, according to Dataquick.”
I couldn’t help but verify that Redding is indeed located in Shasta county. Secondly, $285k to $245k is a 14% drop county-wide. And some brave economist forecasts a 11.8% drop?! Wow! I wish my employer would pay me the big bucks for such lame forecasts. These folks are so behind the ball it ain’t funny.
headline article with photo of 24 yr old flip flopper!
in SFGate
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2006/10/06/carollloyd.DTL
A would-be real estate mogul follows boom tips straight to bust
By Carol Lloyd, Special to SF Gate
Friday, October 6, 2006
Hey, it’s our buddy!
“Welcome to the world according to Casey Serin, a 24-year-old real estate investor and author of the self-flagellating blog Iamfacingforeclosure.com. If Robert Kiyosaki was the pin-up patriarch for the real estate boom, Casey must be the poster child for its fall. “
Hmmm…maybe he will make $$$ on ad traffic to his blog. Just thought of this. I hope not, it’s like a criminal selling his story of the crime.
I doubt he’ll make enough to even come close to paying off all that debt. $15,000 monthly burn rate is awfully hard to swallow. I bet he’s getting his bankruptcy filing in order as we speak. He’s about to become familiar with the world of subprime loans (loansharks).
We need to make a ’son of casey’ law so any profits from his blog will go to me. Get real. I hope the idiot gets out and pays his debts with his credit screwed so he can’t do it again f,’for a while’. hehehehehehehe
posted ” I fell down this year. But I’m not going to go out without a fight.”
Spoken like a true “pineboxer”
Yeah, the end of that story is a doozie, don’t miss it.
OMG, that quote in the last paragraph is UNBELIEVABLE! Kid, did you learn _anything_ at _all_???
Jon
I wonder If he’ll bail on everything and go back to Europe.
From SoCal:
Just came back from lunch. A young construction type guy was all red faced and yelling into his cell phone at his father about the house that they both owned. Could not help but overhear about how both put in over $100,000 and they would both make money. A lot of yelling about: “my own father is going to screw me”, ‘we will make money etc” and a bunch of threats about lawyers.
I did not want to stay too long this guy looked like he was ready to blow up and hit the first person looking at him. He was yelling for over five minute and as I departed the parking lot he was still yelling!
My friend said what do you think they are arguing about? Without hesitation I said real-estate. I think we are going to start seeing more of this.
I love listening to other people’s cell phone conversations. Especially the ones that ought to be happening behind closed doors.
They might be building high-end custom choppers. They seem to cause a lot of family strife.
Pauly, what are you doing? That house isnt gonna build itself!
I overheard a similar cellphone conversation at Starbucks last week. The woman was annoyed at her caller because she needed some “real estate documentation” and “you’re not listening to me, just shut up and listen”. She got loud and rude for 2-3 minutes and then realized that everyone had stopped talking and was listening to her.
“Robert and Marcia Mosqueda always wanted to live in Whittier. Their dream came true about nine weeks ago when then moved after living in unincorporated Los Nietos for 17 years.”
“But the move came at a price. They bought a ‘fixer-upper’ in the Whittier’s Uptown area for about $610,000. It’s given them a mortgage of about $4,500, double what they were paying, and it’s more than 30 percent of their income. ‘It’s a big sacrifice, but it’s worth it to have peace of mind,’ Marcia Mosqueda said.”
The greater fools keep buying. Incredible. And there are most certainly plenty more where they came from. I knew there were a lot of stupid people in this country but I grossly underestimated the quantity. To wait on the sidelines and watch these fools keep driving up prices is excruciating. The fact that greed, corruption, and ignorance have been able to diectly and significantly affect my life, is a bitter pill to swallow. Why should I have to pay nearly twice as much to exist because of these peoples foolish and selfish decisions? Moving to the midwest has actually entered my mind. I just want to get away from all of these greeheads. They make me want to puke.
I know what you mean. We’ve seen sales come down a lot, but it looks like the majority of that decline is simply flippers who aren’t buying anymore (or not as much) - but very little drop off in purchases by Joe Sixpack. It’s disheartening, but I guess Joe Sixpack just takes awhile to realize that RE is a bad idea right now. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe Joe Sixpack has become more cautious and there are just a number of knife catchers out there thinking that they got a great deal. Anyhow, I would like to see sales off by about 40-50% nationally (I know we’re there, and even exceeding those numbers, in some places but others have only seen declines of 10-20%), as that would mean that both flippers and Joe Sixpack have stopped buying, and would put more pressure on prices.
- When ‘Joe Sixpack’s’ refrigerator runs out of beer because his Interest Only loan resets….I think that you’ll see more movement.
Look at it this way.
If just a few flippers exiting causes this much decline and angst, wait until the real ball game starts . . .
It’s not just buyers. The other day, one of my supervisors sort of off-handedly mentioned that he was considering leaving his position and “going into real estate.”
The party is OVER, folks. Where have you been?
Alert! Rant mode on but I have to get this off my chest.
What was that quote by the really horrible guy that killed a lot of people? Something akin to how fortunate for leaders that men do not think. We have a completely brain dead, idiotic society where people that win at Jeopardy (a freaking trivia game based upon memory) are looked at as geniuses and that gambling is the key to future financial success. I’m more convinced that the daytraders didn’t go into housing and instead went into online poker! What a laugh.
We have to recognize that everytime in history when a large percentage of the populace would rather gamble for their future than to work for it, that the society at large is in trouble. One or two gamblers losing is no big deal, but a nation of gamblers losing is a recipe for big problems! I will concede that an appetite for risk is essential in the development of new technologies etc., but that is distinct from being involved in games of chance or blatant Ponzi schemes.
Oh, well let the good times roll until the party stops and then blame everyone around you that didn’t play the game, or played it differently, for your failures. Our dear leaders better find us a new game to play with the “houses” money or the next few years are goining to be rough. Hope is a disease.
The classic quote… “it’s worth it (home ownership) to have peace of mind.” What kind of peace of mind is it, when you can’t sleep at night wondering where the mortgage payment is going to come from?
Or if Junior falls off his bike and med insurance doesn’t cover it all… any unanticipated expense could push these idiots over the edge. All it takes is one job loss, one major fix-it, one car accident….. good-bye solace, hello scrambling!
The FBs make me feel good about my $27 parking ticket.
i’m glad to see shasta county home prices coming down a bit,it was sad when marin county police and firemen got priced out of that market too.
O.T. but I thought everyone would be relieved to know that AG says that the housing bust is over.
http://tinyurl.com/jwy38
Note to Greenspan: GO DIE.
He’s on a roll, he also recommended ARMs
Greenspan spewing again I see. That moron said you couldn’t see a bubble until it bursts (stocks in 2000). Now he can see the end of the housing correction. That prick should be hung from the nearest lamppost for all the damage he’s done to this countries economy.
Yes, and his unbridled optimism is based on one week’s worth of “flattening” mortgage applications.
Even in big downturns there are always going to be stupid people buying on the dips. Very common to see people back in 2001 eagerly rushing in to buy up Lucent, JDSU, NEWP, …..
Don’t lose your heart BanteringBear….your paitence will be rewarded.
As someone who spent the first 18 years of my life in OC and still have family down there, I can vouch for the fact that it is filled with a stunning combo. Lots of stupidity (unrecognized due to wealth), but the real kicker is the hubris. Was down there two weeks ago and a realtor friend of the family started harping on me to move back and buy. All I could think was, “Jesus. Are you really that stupid or do you just not care if I lose $100k in the next two years?”
You’d be lucky if you only lost 100K in the next two years.
I should add that, when I have this conversation, people ALWAYS say, “yeah, but even if it goes down it will come back up again. ALWAYS.” Umm, if I have a mortgage that includes that amount, I will end up paying it. I don’t regain that money, I lost it when I took the mortgage. At least for a first time buyer like me.
“A year ago, Redding led the nation in the percentage of homes sold to investors, 22 percent, according to LoanPerformance.”
I don’t get it. If the NAR says that 28% of all homes sold in 2005 went to investors, how does Redding lead the nation with 22%?
Haven’t you heard? Redding is different.
End of sarcasm. To suggest that Redding, CA is the posterchild of the bubble, well……….Let’s just say that only shallow MSM reporting would make such an absurd conjecture.
Yes, Redding is different. Despite being in the northernmost area of the Central Valley, it is also the hottest.
Different sources, different numbers. NAR and LoanPerformance apparently have different data and/or define “investors” differently.
My own opinion, that Shasta area is scary anyways. Ever been to Anderson? Scary. Moved my son back home from there. Felt like I left the Twilight Zone culturally and politically.
THE BAD: My cousin is (was) building a custom home in NV and the builder declared bankruptcy.
WORSE: Needless to say, the sub-contractors have stopped all work.
WORSE YET: The sub-contractors have put liens on my cousin’s unbuilt home.
WORSE YET: My cousin borrowed a huge chunk of equity out of his current house to build the new house.
WORSE YET: He’s also been trying to sell his current house to cash out more equity, pay the subs, and finish the new house.
WORSE YET: His current home has been on the market for six months without a single offer.
WORSE YET: Even though he’s only lowered his asking price about 10%, he can’t go any lower or he won’t end up with enough equity to finish building the new house…
WORSE YET: Don’t even ask about trying to get another loan …he barely got the last one.
Any advice?
Too bad he didn’t do what my parents did when they were building their first custom home: renting.
Maybe he should follow the builders lead.
“Any advice?” Yes, alienate your cousin so he doesn’t end up living with you.
Sourry about your…umm…cousin’s situation. What is the name of Home Builder?
Give him Consumer Credit Counseling Services Number:
1-800-yur-effd
Best to sell his house now, even if the proceeds won’t cover all of the costs of building the new house. At least he can lock in his gain from the sale (instead of having the price go lower the longer he waits). Costs of materials and labor will probably be coming down, which might help cover the difference. Once he is getting closer to completion, he may be able to get a construction loan for the balance. Not sure if this will work out or not.
Advice for anyone building a home: get lien releases with each payment (typically you get a conditional release for the payment you are making and an unconditional release for the prior payment - and you need releases from the builder and from all subs). And consider requiring the builder to post a bond (it will cost you - approximately 1-2% of the contract price) but it is there to protect you against the builder going bankrupt (or walking off the job, or failing to pay subs, etc.).
Advice: change your phone number, make it unlisted.
Always get a completion bond from the builder
My experience is that it can be hard to find sureties willing to provide payment or performance bonds on smaller residential projects.
Was that 800# only for pages who got screwed by Foley or could anybody call if they got screwed?
Got a better one.
Guy and his wife live in her paid off beach block bungalow. Wife’s mother lives above in seperated aparment. Wife, who works in law and real estate office gets great idea late 05 to tear down house, build triplex, sell lower floor and live in 2nd with MIL living on third floor. Husband is against idea.
Anywho, builder - who is a friend of this couple - can’t finish job, absconds with money from bank and goes belly up. Buyer of first floor backs out of deal because similar propertirs are going for 100K less and dropping. House is unfinsished. Husband and wife are renting miles away. Can’t afford to finish and couldn’t afford to live there now if they did finish.
They have gone from having a paid off beach house to having no house and a pile of debt.
wow!
“Any advice? ”
Go into the backyard and dig a hole. Then get in.
I thought the first rule of holes is that when you’re in one, you stop digging.
BanteringBear, i hear you. same thing up here in anchorage. there is a glut of homes on the market. we backed out of an over priced condo at the last minute and handed over our earnest $. best decision ever. i learned a lot from my experience. for one, these slimeball realtors and morgage bankers take advantage of ingnorant dumb buyers like myself. they did everything they could to prevent us from backing out. they took advantage of our inexperience and threated that we could be forced to buy the property if we try to back out–what a load of B.S. what goes around comes around. they play on people fears, just like the devil.
“Redding’s median price for a home is forecast to fall by 11.8 percent. ‘That’s about right,’ Ron Largent, agent in Redding, said Thursday. He thinks prices could fall ‘another 10 percent’ from where they were a month ago before leveling out. ‘This is an excellent time for buyers,’ Largent said.”
I really don’t understand the logic of some of these Real Estate agents. How can NOW be an excellent time to buy when prices are still going to fall 10%?
Kotto bass-maybe because the interest rates are still very low. Even with another 10% decline in the future,a higher rate added to the wasted rent money would eat most of that up in a year or two.
“Redding’s median price for a home is forecast to fall by 11.8 percent. ‘That’s about right,’ Ron Largent, agent in Redding, said Thursday. He thinks prices could fall ‘another 10 percent’ from where they were a month ago before leveling out. ‘This is an excellent time for buyers,’ Largent said.”
Hahaha! WHAT? His GUESS is that it will level out, and HOPEFULLY in his mind not go lower (we know it will). Therefore, “it’s an excellent time for buyers”????
The Titanic and like ships are going down. Therefore, it’s an excellent time to take a cruise.
$610K to move to Whittier? They are excited about living in that toilet of a town? What was the funny stuff in the water they have been drinking? They’ll get mugged from the folks in Pico Rivera, raped by the folks in Norwalk, cars stolen from the gangs in Garden Grove, and don’t remember the other surrounding slum. CA is really going down the toilet.
At least Redding is a nice place to be. Beautiful mountains, lakes, etc. But it is HOT.
Cousin is going down. Cut the loss on the new house. Keep the first is my recommendation.
2001: new townhome sold for 300k
2005-6 : same sold for 630-650k
now: 575k
to begin with..
It’s too much for a 3 level 1 bed 2 bath,(possible 2nd bed) townhome
comparable rents are around 2k..
ok.. it’s in 94596 walnutcreek,ca
Too far out. Even if it is near BART.
very true.. it’s near bart.(not in embarcadero to ask for 600k for 1bed). though it has 3 floors. it’s still 1 bed!!
saw more than a couple in foreclosure.com
This is from a real estate mailer in Concord, CA, about a house on the market for $1.4+ mil: “Guess the price? $500 prize to a non-agent (plus $1,000 prize to Realtor) who views the property and comes closest to guessing our final net selling price. One guess per visit. You don’t have to be the home’s buyer or selling agent to win.”
This is so odd….methinks it’s the owner trying to put his 2 cents in to sell the house.
Here’s a new radio ad on LA talk radio: Buy a house from Shea homes, and they will sell your house for free…
‘It’s a big sacrifice, but it’s worth it to have peace of mind.’
I said EXACTLY the same thing last month. About renting.
‘That was a perfect storm because you had fires, floods, riots and a huge decline in aerospace spending combined with defense cutbacks and base closings.’”
Hmmm, I lived in West LA from 1988-96 and don’t remember anybody leaving because of fires, floods, or riots, and only a few leaving because of the aerospace crash. Mostly people left when they realized they were upside down in their mortgage. However, the rate at which homeowners are leaving now at the beginning of this crash has surpassed as the rate at which people were leaving then during the darkest days of that crash. I also remember there was a thing called “savings” back then and MUCH less funny money floating around and fewer people driving cars that cost a year’s income. If anything what we have now with our overdependence on housing related jobs, negative savings rate, absurd amount of leverage, and single digit affordiblity index is a MORE perfect storm.
Did he forget the earthquake and Orange County going bankrupt, both which also happened in SoCalif in the early 90s. Yes, it was a bad time, which contributed to the dropping prices. But prices got way over valued before all of this (including the riots, aerospace cuts.) Many people did leave in the early 90s. But many people are leaving now because they cannot afford to buy a house for their family.
Whittier 90601 21 $650 23.1% 11 $370 12.1% $352
Whittier 90602 17 $520 8.3% 1 $400 -0.3% $415
Whittier 90603 18 $588 12.0% n/a n/a n/a $435
Whittier 90604 28 $535 7.2% 2 $359 -3.1% $424
Whittier 90605 32 $500 8.7% 2 $374 25.8% $440
Whittier 90606 27 $495 6.7% n/a n/a n/a $408
Whittier is a fairly large community which spreads out basically along Whittier Blvd off the 605 fwy. The best area is indeed the uptown part which starts north of Whittier blvd along Greenleaf/Pickering streets in the old restored dwtn area(old Town) and goes north into the hills(zip 90601). Lots of palatial homes, with quite a few proud Victorians. South of Whittier blvd is somewhat problematic, with a lot of older ramshackle clapbords in parts of the 90606 zip area near the fwy. The southeastern part of whittier toward La Mirada looks decent and stable( middle/working class).
Probably lots of upwardly mobile Hispanic immigrants moving into Whittier, which accounts for the moderate yoy increases in all of the zips. Similar to what is happening in Downey, Pico Rivera, and other SaN Gabriel Fwy communities.
Note: Old Town Whittier still maintains it’s charm, though fraying a bit. The Protestant/Quaker influence still evident with all the churches and the large Presbytarian Hospital.
There appears to be some mysterious dynamic force causing YOY price increases in some forelorn degenerate innor LA county burgs. If you think that purchasing a fixer in Uptown Whittier for $610K is bad, look at these numbers
taken from August Data quick:
area zip SFHsold med price yoy%
Lynwood: 90262 35 $461 16.6%
Huntington park90255 26 468 11.2%
Montebello 90640 29 541 6.7%
maywood 90270 8 425 20%
Southgate 90280 40 466 19 %
Whittier is suburban Heaven compared to these cities.
I agree, I don’t get all the slamming of Whittier. It’s true, most of it is ghetto, but what area of SoCal isn’t? Seriously, anywhere besides Palos Verdes, Laguna, Pacific Palisades, there’s a crime infested dump within 3 miles of your castle.
I’d take Whittier over any spot on a dartboard covering OC, San Fernando Valley, or Inland Empire.
That’s why some of us prefer NorCal. The Bay Area isn’t Eden, but by and large it’s better than the Southland.
The 605 is the worst congested freeway in So Cal.
Watch it in real time for yourself on a weekday.
http://www.sigalert.com/map.asp?Region=Greater+Los+Angeles
As a matter of fact at 8:30 on a Saturday morninig there are two slow spots on the map.
The 605 and the 405/105/LAX debacle.
if you’re going northbound on the 5 fwy and need to take 605 northbound during the peak period exit at carmenita and go north to mulberry/slauson, then go west along slauson to pioneer, turn north and follow pioneer to 605 northbound entrance just before or after washington blvd. If you’re going southbound on the 605 fwy exit off whittier/beverly blvd and go east to norwalk blvd, then go south all way to florence ave and swing west and get back on the 605 there. if going north on 605 get off at imperial hwy or rosecrans, go east to pioneer blvd. then go north along pioneer all way to washington blvd, and get back on 605 either before or after passing washington blvd. If going east on the 105 fwy or south on the 5 and you need to go north on the 605 exit at lakewood blvd(19) and go north all way to Washington blvd, then east about 2 miles and get back on the 605 heading north.
these are highly simplified directions: there are variations but this will get around the worst congested part of the 605 during peak congestion periods, which is always the section between the 60/10 fwys and the 105 fwy. In mornings the 605 is really bad going southbound: in afternoon it is jammed northbound. However, it can get pretty bad all all times in both directions depending on accidents.