Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? More open houses? Reduced prices? Here is one from Washington, DC. “What a difference a year makes. When my husband and I bought our home in April 2005, the Washington, D.C.-area housing market was in a frenzy. We’d paraded through homes, all priced well over half a million dollars, that had cracked foundations, slanting floors, and ’slight’ flooding problems.”
“We’d been told that it was likely we’d lose bidding wars to folks willing to waive the home inspection contingency. In fact, we had lost bids on two other homes, even with escalation clauses that sometimes went thousands over asking price. The market around the area had been red hot for several years, long enough so that many of us forgot it could be any other way.”
“But sure enough, the slow down has hit, bringing with it a record inventory of homes and a sea of sellers perplexed by their misfortune.”
South Carolina. “‘Buyers are starting to look for bargains,’ said (broker) Bob Clarkson in Hilton Head. ‘Certain sellers are becoming more desperate for a sale. This is an adjustment period from the wildest housing market we’ve had here in our lifetime,’ said Clarkson.”
In Mississippi. “Builder Dee Denton says there is a slow down in construction because of a surplus of homes up for sale. ‘We have had an influx in the home-building industry of new builders starting up in this industry and putting more product out on the market,’ Denton says. She says it’s definitely a buyer’s market.”
“Some builders we talked to say they are adding special features to homes as an incentive to sell them like kitchen upgrades such as granite and stainless steel appliances. Denton says if you are planning to sell, don’t worry, just be patient, it could take a little longer.’”
The Arizona Republic. “‘I think it’s clear we’re going to continue to see an adjustment (down), but my thinking is that by the middle of next year, we ought to be at the bottom or close to it,’ said valley housing analyst RL Brown.”
“Installing basement shells in new subdivision has dropped about 30 percent, McDonald said, but the custom home market has yet to slow. ‘I have a feeling the custom home market could soften as well, a little bit,’ he said.”
Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, PA) inventory:
10/06/06 - 9,247
09/07/06 - 9,238
08/12/06 - 9,198
07/07/06 - 9,101
06/03/06 - 9,002
Closed transactions, 09/01/06 - 09/30/06: 1,121.
Months of inventory: 8.24
Another “Open House” today for the Cupcake Lady of Castaic, could be a new recipe.
http://www.the-signal.com/?module=displaystory&story_id=32837&format=html
- “What happened is people got greedy,” Hauser said. “It is a backlash of the greed factor. Sellers are a little more open now blah blah blah.
Just ask Cindy Schwanke, who quit her job as a pastry chef to devote herself to selling her home. To create a memorable experience and increase its appeal, she bakes cupcakes for people who come to her open houses. She and her husband, Paul, listed their three bedroom, two and a half bath home built in 1990 in a quiet neighborhood in Castaic for $629,000.
I am wondering if Cindy has a receipt for ‘Pumpkin Cupcakes?’
Another con exposed on SDCIA: read the post at 10:33am.
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=1427152&trail=60
That’s hilarious. I guess we know where husband’s “150K” salary goes or more likely that was BS too.
Never trust anyone who can’t put a paragraph break (or four) into their writing. Not only is this A. Bell a bit of a liar, but she can’t break up her monologue into easier reading for the rest of us to pick apart.
Complete BS. Just a variation on the stock board geniuses who always sold at the top and bought at the bottom. My guess is this person is someone’s teenager.
She was soliciting for “investors” to go in with her on buying homes.
Is that Nina back again???
“stock board geniuses who always sold at the top and bought at the bottom”
I have been investing in the stock market for over 20 years and I have never achieved this, not once.
Prolly will never happen to me in a lifetime of stock market investing.
When I hear or see this, I know I am dealing with a LIAR.
“I have been investing in the stock market for over 20 years and I have never achieved this, not once.”
Have you tried cattle futures?
I have. Always on the short side.
Hilary did pretty well with cattle futures, if I recall.
Or was it pork?
Holy crap!!
In St. Petersburg FL, I’ve driven around a little bit during the weekends to spot ‘for sale’ signs. Seems like most new construction developments (homes, townhomes, and condos) have an extremely high amount of inventory on the market. More established neighborhoods seem to have a more normal level of inventory. Several weeks ago, when I was driving through Clearwater Beach to go to a company picnic, I noticed A LOT of ‘for sale’ signs for homes on the beach, both waterfront and across the street.
Northern Virginia (Clarendon) - Asking prices are totally disconnected from reality (even considering the bubble). It’s like sellers are delusional. Despite selling prices dropping about 5% since the peak last summer, sellers are routinely asking 10 to 20% more than last summer’s prices. I don’t know what they are thinking.
I’ve summarized some of the most overvalued homes in Clarendon along with my estimates of an appropriate bubble and post-bubble price. See http://whybuynow.blogspot.com/ for examples.
22151 N VA
house across the street -owner agent
spent 100k started 10 months ago
lost 200k
owner agent=idiot
White’s Mill - Pulte development in Warrenton, VA (N. VA exurb) is selling four finished 1/4-acre lots for 160K each. Now that’s weird. Their development is quite built-out by now, and they are going to sell the lots and have someone plunk down who-knows-what there? Four non-matching houses?
I have called around for clarification but have gotten no further info. yet. The lots are likely “worth” 75K each, so perhaps they think they can make a better profit margin on each lot rather than building one of their houses on it.
I think inventory is going to build up again. There were a lot of listings that expired at the end of August and the end of September, but now there are many new listings (that weren’t listed before) coming on board.
Foreclosures are creeping up in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties.
There are an abundance of rental properties in the above counties also, and rents are less expensive than they were a year ago.
I have been getting emails from Pulte about this for at least one year: things start at 470k going by the last email. Was mid 500’s sometime back I remember.
Pulte’s Hamlets at Red Cedar development in Leesburg, Va dropped the price on its “Manor-Style” townhomes (2400 sq. ft.) from $535K to $450K. I drove out there two weeks ago and none had been built.
That development is mostly SFHs, and the prices on those have not dropped as far as I know.
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3238,36-821102@51-821183,0.html
Faut-il encore investir dans l’immobilier ?
Après plusieurs années de taux d’intérêt inférieurs à 4 % et une explosion des prix (+ 120 % en huit ans), le marché de l’immobilier connaît ses premiers signes de ralentissement. Certains économistes comme ceux du Bureau d’informations et de prévisions économiques (BIPE) prédisent, par exemple, une baisse prochaine des prix comprise entre 3 % et 5 % en 2007. De leur côté, les professionnels de la Fédération nationale de l’immobilier (Fnaim) pronostiquent une stabilisation voire une hausse plus faible en 2006 et 2007 (entre 5 % et 7%)… Dans ces conditions, est-il encore temps d’acheter ou vaut-il mieux attendre et louer ?
…
I don’t think we have that many readers from Sherbrooke, PQ or Thibodeaux, LA, so I’ll take a shot at a rough translation: prices are up 120% in the last 4 years, some economists look for 3-5% higher next year, others see a feeble market - a “stabilization” of prices in the 5-7% appreciation range. (Don’t you just love that - these guys really go out on the limb, don’t they?) So, the age old question, asked by everyone from Dumas to Napoleon, time to buy or rent?
Sell your overpriced POS in the Paris suburbs, rent in Marseilles, and wait it out.
Sorry, 120%+ in the last eight years. Too many numbers.
No the sentence starts by stating “after several years withh interest rates below 4% and 120% price appreciation….” thus linking price appreciation to low interest rates, which has been more powerful driver in Euroland than the US.
Sorry to nitpick, but since you started it: I don’t understand your “No.” I didn’t say how the sentence started and I know what the sentence says - 120% increase in prices in eight years. The introductory phrase is not an explanation, it is simply an introductory phrase. I disagree that low interest rates have been a more powerful driver in Euroland than the U.S. Real interest rates in the U.S. have generally been lower than in Europe and monetary policy somewhat looser than the ECB .
Here the translation from a dutchspeaking Flemish Belgian in France:
“After several years of interest rates lower than 4% and an explosion of (housing)prices(+120% in 8 years), the housing market is seeing it’s first signs of cooling (slowing down).
Some economists as from the Bureau of information and economic previsions(BIPE) foresee, for example, a coming decline(drop) in home prices between 3% and 5% in 2007.
On the other hand, the professionals of the National Federation of Real Estate Agents foresee a stabilization, maybe even a more modest rise in 2006 and 2007(between 5% and 7%)…
Knowing this, is it still time to buy or would it be better to wait and rent?”
At your service
Had an interesting experience on Friday. I represented an estate (the selling party) at a real estate closing. The house was sold to a husband and wife for $69,900. The couple were in their early or mid 60’s, both well dressed.
They financed 100% of the purchase price! I don’t know anything else about the terms of the loan, only what I could see from the HUD-1.
Before the buyers showed up, I asked the seller’s broker “So, how’s the real estate game?” She rolled her eyes and said “Don’t ask”. I didn’t press her further.
The closing officer had an interesting anecdote. She did a closing last week, where the buyers weren’t consistent with their signatures (some docs had their middle initials, some didn’t). The lender (Provident) forced all parties back to the table to completely re-execute every single doc. A major headache for all involved.
Ugh. A few years ago I sold a car. On the original car loan and my driver’s license, I had signed my name “First MI Last” but nowadays simply sign as “FI Last.” I’m no handwritting expert, but the letters were all the same so I don’t see how there could be any question that it was signed by the same person. What a freaking headache. And that was just for a car worth $12k or whatever.
My advice: ind a signature that’s quick and easy and use it for *everything*.
Just saw a full page ad in local paper. Carlsbad, California. Bressi Ranch master-planned community. Auction date Oct 21. “16 Fully -Furnished Designer Model Homes…up to 4,531sf… Previously listed from $849,500 to $1,422,000. Some homes with spectacular views.”
Wonder how low they will let them go.
Spotted in the LA Times online today:
————–
Known By Millions
Owned By You
Condo Hotel Suites
From the 400s
Hard Rock Hotel
San Diego
———–
… speechless.
Here is an ad that has been running in a local paper almost a year, with a greatly reduced price:
‘Page Springs/3+ acre. Borders forest service. Never lived in (2004) 3br 2ba. Large master and bath. Room for horses or shop. $369k.’
A new one:
‘Elegant 3,700 sq ft home in West Sedona. Owner says submit all offers. Asking $899,500.’
And the ‘price reduced $20,000-one week only’ ad is still running.
Well okay! I’ll submit my offer of 299K sight unseen.
What’s Page Springs like? Is that overpriced? The number sounds a whole lot less shocking than most of what I see up there.
Page Springs is what they call the collection of houses along a little spring fed stream between Sedona and Cornville (I know). It’s way overpriced, but coming down faster than Oak Creek, etc. But they are all going down.
BTW, I talked with a realtor that just got back from Santa Barbara, CA. He said they have record inventory and the condo market is falling.
Never lived in (2004)???
That’s gotta be hurting.
if you can’t sell them you can always auction them.
http://www.greatamerican.com/Services/auctions.aspx
click on bressi ranch homes, Carlsbad, CA
Just got back from the Oktoberfest in La Mesa - largest Oktoberfest on the West Coast, they say. Besides the beer gardens and craft stalls, I saw not one, not two, but three real estate companies with booths - Barratt American (new homes), Prudential, and One Source GMAC.
On La Mesa Blvd, within one block there were an additional four real estate companies with “real” offices as opposed to booths. Unfortunately, one of the four had a “FOR LEASE” sign plastered across its front window - it has already gone under.
Just went from St. Pete Beach to Clearwater Beach and back…
I T I S G O I N G T O B U S T B I G
So many condos being built. So many just finished. So many for sale. So many for rent. So many just sitting empty.
Along Gulf Blvd.? Through Indian Beach, Sand Key, etc.?
Yes, a complete disaster. The side streets don’t paint a much better picture. Hundreds and hundreds of homes for sale.
Had to see it for myself, and I just laughed and laughed …
Yes, Sand Key, Redington, Clearwater, Bellair, Indian Rocks, Madiera Beach… pick any Guld Blvd.,it doesn’t matter. They are all toast.
Check out the bayside condos in St. Pete Beach on Gulf Blvd. north of Dolphin Village. SO NEW, SO EMPTY.
I was going to buy one of the old cottages in Madeira Beach back in 2002. It was about 135k. I waited to save a larger down payment. Buy 2004 a similar unit was 498k, a ridiculous price. The agent told me if I didn’t buy it I would be priced out forever. I laughed at here and told here the prices were ridiculous and that NO ONE could afford these ridiculous prices. I tour Gulf Blvd. regularly by bicycle. The inventories have been building for some time.
Another interesting point was this past winter, their were VACANCY signs during peak season, even with all the tear downs. That almost never has happened here in all my memory. It showed a clear shift in market psycology as tourists began to re -think the Gulf Coast Beach holidays.
A Snapshot Of Los Altos 94022
Date Zip 94022
07/15/05 $1,550,000
07/21/05 $1,474,500
08/08/05 $1,617,500
08/15/05 $1,650,000
08/19/05 $1,650,000
08/24/05 $1,650,000
08/30/05 $1,782,500
09/09/05 $1,712,500
09/14/05 $1,801,250
Average $1,654,250
07/14/06 $1,525,000
07/20/06 $1,475,000
08/07/06 $1,540,000
08/14/06 $1,495,000
08/18/06 $1,350,000
08/23/06 $1,345,000
08/29/06 $1,141,500
09/08/06 $1,406,250
09/13/06 $1,383,750
Average $1,406,833 -14.96% YoY
The low corresponds to sales that took place when the Silly.con Valley based tech Scams were at their lows. I expect the prices in expensive areas to rise over the next month, or two, due to huge increase in Scam Options money over the last two months.
In a recession, due within the next 5 months, both the stock prices and home prices in expensive areas will plummet.
Jas Jain
Los Altos is the next town over from me. Prices will plummet–maybe even 20% or more–but it’s a very nice area and houses *will* sell at the right price. It’s not like other areas where nobody ever really wanted to live there (Polk County, FL, or Sacremento CA) and houses were built only for “Investors”
“A Snapshot Of Los Altos”
Soon to be renamed Las Bajas?
In case any of you thought I was bullshitting a few weeks ago. Check out the reason for the surrender of this guy to rescue:
http://www.frenchbulldogrescue.org/htdocs/sponsorrusty.html
Oh RUSTY!! My heart breaks for you. A totally innocent victim of the housing bubble. This crash is going to affect every man, woman, child AND their dog.
That’s sad. People dump cats and dogs when they move or just get tired of them in the best of times. Think what’s going to happen when people who are just as irresponsible with their animals as they are with their finances and purchase decisions toss the keys on the granite and bail on their mortage. Lots of animals will be left behind in empty houses, or just “let out” at the side of the road someplace. At least this dog has a chance.
Barking and growlng at realtors? Sounds like a smart dog to me!
He’ll be fine. Our rescue organization does an amazing job at placing these guys, and they are in somewhat high demand.
Me too! I expect my dog to bark at strangers especially unsavory types.
Fools, your dog’s not the problem, it’s the price. My 80 lb coonhound’s barking didn’t slow down the realtors, potential buyers or looky loos one bit.
Now these are real victims of the housing bubble.
The silver lining though is that I believe more and more rentals will allow pets as they get desperate for tenants. Dog people are often great tenants! (I have 4 rescued dogs in a 800 sq ft duplex with a yard).
Now that’s a cute dog.
My friend just took in a rescue for a similar reason.
that is sad!!! FBs and FPs!!!
Poor little boy
I hope he finds someone who will love him in the way he deserves, very soon.
Guess, in the eyes of his late owners, that money is more imortant than ‘family’.
San Diego:
About 8 months ago, neighbor on the street behind me listed his ~50’s 3/2 house with downtown views for $530K. After 6 months, it was relisted for $499K. Still no FB.
After another 52 days on market, it was suddenly reduced yesterday another $99K. Whoa that’s 25% gravity! Now $400K even. Not sure what the story is.
The story (I think) is he’s trying to beat everybody to the bottom and has made a bold, intelligent move. Keep an eye on it for us. What neighborhood?
Maybe he has been reading this blog? Good for him if he has! We could be saving him more than $100k.
Arlington, VA
http://www.lyonhill.com/
Lyon Hill - condos started in 2004 and completed summer 2006. Prices range from 800k to 1.5 million. Property faces T intersection with a traffic light on Lee Hwy. Close to D.C. but a very awkward location otherwise. They’ve been having open houses since the summer with an “over 50% sold out!” sign out front. I looked at a 2 bedrm for 1.5 million. Sales guy described property “just like NYC”. Ha. They are not selling! They now have a couple of tacky “for sale-please call” signs in some of the vacant windows.
In Ballston w/in walking distance to a metro - 2 Avalon apt conversion to condos (East View, West View) are not selling so they are now back to being rental units. Rental price is about $700 lower than one tenant’s mortgage.
However, rent in my building is continuing to rise.
just like NYC
Cramped with premium pricing. YUCK!
We have this realtor in Sacramento who keeps posting a blog about how there needs to a reduction in inventory in order to get the market back in shape. I think she is missing the point what there needs to be is reduction in home prices. This is what she said about inventory this week. This is her website address.http://www.jalone.com/id59.html
“One of the critical components of the current slowdown in our Sacramento real estate market is the high level of inventory. For most of the past year the number of homes coming on to the market has significantly surpassed those sold leading to an inventory level that has been about three times what it was just 18 months ago.
The latest numbers from HousingTracker indicate that we are starting to see a steady decline in the level of inventory. Their report on Sacramento includes some surrounding cities but is a good barometer of the overall market. From a high of 12,180 homes in mid-August we have come down to 11,449 as of October 1. From September 1 this is a decline of 4.8 percent in available homes.
We have a long way to go to even get back to a balanced market between buyers and sellers but it is heading in the right direction.
This has been a busy week for us; we have hired an experienced real estate administrator to help with customer service, transaction coordination and general support. Over the next week or two I will be introducing my concept of working with others to provide enhanced customer service and support. In addition, I am headed to a document signing today for my longest running clients. I have been working with Joe and Erin for almost three years, looking for the perfect home. They have become more than clients and I am almost as excited as they are to see them finally move out of their “too small” apartment into a beautiful home.”
I think she is missing the point inventory always goes down in the fall and so do sales.
I don’t see how this is good news for prospective sellers. The inventory has gone down dramatically because people are taking them off the market, not because there has been a resurgence in buying. Most of them, I would imagine, are planning on relisting in the first or second quarters of 2007 and hope that things will magically be back to normal. Of course, the resetting of ARMs everywhere will probably lead to a flood wherein inventory in April 2007 will be close to 2000 homes.
My wife and I just got back from driving around a nice little neighborhood that we would seriously consider purchasing a home in. There’s a very lovely 1400sqft home (6000sqft lot) that’s been on the market for about 45 days at $280k, no price reductions yet. The home next to it (1100sqft) sold about six weeks ago for $240k. Based on the property tax assessment, I’m guessing that the owners bought it sometime in the mid-1980s or possibly earlier. We’re going to keep our eye on it and consider possibly making an offer for ~$225k if/when the asking price falls below $250k.
What this Realtor isn’t telling you is that the inventory decline is only happening in the higher-priced tiers:
sacrealstats.blogspot.com
Either sellers are becoming more realistic and dropping prices, or a credit squeeze is on for the low income buyers. This has nothing to do with overall inventory levels and is a major indication of an overall market slowdown.
Remember, Realtors are not economists!
A pair of listings from my neck of the woods:
Hey! Only $215,000! Get a load of the stainless steel appliances…the ceramic tile floor…How big is it? Hmmm. They’re not saying. I’d guess about 600 sq. ft.?
Here’s another. 600 sq. ft. Going for $195,000. You can buy the lot next door for another $85,000.
I’m amused by the swanky kitchen remodels in these itty bitty boxes.
Wow, someone is flipping Ted Kaczynski’s old place.
Is that a workshed, or the house?
Wesley Chapel/New Tampa,
Friend bought a townhome there Oct 2005, her closing was on the day the market hit its peak. Note: I could not talk her out of it, even the mentioning that she rent a while longer, caused her to sob uncontrollably and hyperventilate to the point where I thought I may have to call an ambulance. I did however, talk her out of buying a second townhome for an “investment”. So at least she is not doubling downward.
Anyway she paid $160,000, previous sale price in 2001 for this place was $85,000. Sellers left the place filthy, but they took their $75,000 and bought an even bigger loser, so there is justice. In April 2006, 17 of these townhomes, in her little area of about 50 townhomes came on the market and have sat ever since. Today there is one with a wishing price of $150,000. She says it has a lot of upgrades she does not have and she asked me what I thought about her spending more money to upgrade hers to their level.
In the meantime she lost her job and found another job for a lot less money, and she is talking about taking a second job to make ends meet.
Zillow says it is worth $164,000 and others like it are valued up to $174,000. Have to wait for some of them to sell for Zillow to change.
She still is very happy with her purchase and thankfully for me, she has stopped telling me how much money she has made on her house.
Here in North Park I’ve seen two new condo projects with a sign that states “no mortgage for one year”. What a deal…………
I thought for a second we had the same friend. Mine did worse, she closed on a TH for $200k.
Here is what realtor said in Sacramento about how to cure the ills of housing market. Here is her address http://www.jalone.com/id59.html
More on Inventory
“One of the critical components of the current slowdown in our Sacramento real estate market is the high level of inventory. For most of the past year the number of homes coming on to the market has significantly surpassed those sold leading to an inventory level that has been about three times what it was just 18 months ago.
The latest numbers from HousingTracker indicate that we are starting to see a steady decline in the level of inventory. Their report on Sacramento includes some surrounding cities but is a good barometer of the overall market. From a high of 12,180 homes in mid-August we have come down to 11,449 as of October 1. From September 1 this is a decline of 4.8 percent in available homes.
We have a long way to go to even get back to a balanced market between buyers and sellers but it is heading in the right direction.
This has been a busy week for us; we have hired an experienced real estate administrator to help with customer service, transaction coordination and general support. Over the next week or two I will be introducing my concept of working with others to provide enhanced customer service and support. In addition, I am headed to a document signing today for my longest running clients. I have been working with Joe and Erin for almost three years, looking for the perfect home. They have become more than clients and I am almost as excited as they are to see them finally move out of their “too small” apartment into a beautiful home.”
Inventory always goes down in the fall and so do sales. Although she does not mention the sales part.
Inventory always goes down in the fall and so do sales. Although she does not mention the sales part.
———————–
Definitely what I’ve seen since tracking SD inventory. Again with the hype from the REIC.
Can’t wait ’til Superbowl Sunday! I’m sure the market will get HOT, HOT, HOT!
I think I will start posting the commentary that this Sacramento Realtor is spewing as she posts. She trys to straddle the fence and play both sides, but a realtor is a realtor if you know what I mean. Here is her address once again. Her Blog name is “Keeping it Real in Sacreamento” http://www.jalone.com/id59.html
Geez, at these prices, you may as well do a custom build from scratch, and get a better-looking abode.
That is, if you can find a piece of land that hasn’t already been optioned and carved for a Garage&Gable McShitbox.
i’m in sebastopol california,and am seeing very large divergences in prices,it can be difficult to compare homes here due to large variatins in lot size and age/quality of construction,however todays paper shows a $400k difference in price between 2 similar homes.thecheaper home is on half an acre more,there are no other significant differences.
there are no other significant differences…
————————-
I can see one glaring difference: one seller has a clue and the other does not.
Yes, I see the same here on the California Central Coast, except with homes that are in tracts. Totally identical house and lot size, yet one might be priced at $470K and sell within a month or so and the other wants last years high price of $525K and it sits.
I went to a charity event last night in Jacksonville. There were about two hundred people there and everyone was talking about the NE Florida housing bust. Nobody was unaware of what was going on. People joked about out of state FB’s and idiots who bought condos in the area over the last two years. The NE Florida housing market was the biggest joke of the night. It was fantastic.
The whole condo thing in Florida is a complete joke. Whoever wanted to retire to Fla. and live in a condo (I’m thinking mainly of high-rises)? Up until 10 years ago that was restricted to an area south of Palm Beach. Now people all of a sudden want to live in condos on isolated beaches or in mosquito-infested areas of the intracoastal? But the dirty little secret is no, they don’t - no more than people want to live in the far eastern reaches of the Inland Empire or 35 miles from Las Vegas. The only reason to live there is if you expect the housing market is going to appreciate. If not, there is NO reason.
Thanks, David, that actually warms my heart to know that the real locals are tuned in. Makes me think I’m living in a place with at least some semblance of sanity.
That is great news about Floridians finally catching on.
I was really beginning to wonder what it was going to take for Americans to wake and smell the coffee when people in FLA and Phoenix were still in denial, what with their outrageous inventory staring them in the face.
Nice to know there IS a breaking point when everyone “gets it”.
Florida locals: Got my haircut today (no, not that type of haircut - I rent) and everyone was talking about the slowdown, the prices, the glut… pretty funny actually. We were all talking about how we were going to buy, got “priced out,” and now feel great about renting. What a difference one year makes.
I just hope it doesn’t go too far the other way. I really don’t feel like living with illegal gangbangers.
It was nice of those out of staters to subsidize the future housing for floridians. Now you all should send them packing, like the carpet baggers they are. I have a feeling that the locals, in places like Florida and Arizona, will have the last laugh.
“I have a feeling that the locals, in places like Florida and Arizona, will have the last laugh.”
That’s what I’m hoping, too.
Just got property tax statement from Maricopa County AZ. They jacked our taxes 12% !!! This is going to force a lot more weaker hands to need to sell in the future and god knows how much they will jack up taxes in 2007 ….
Do not mean to belittle your tax hike, but people in FL who are not grandfathered into a 3% tax cap wish their property taxes was going up by 12%. My landlord in KY told me that the local school board has an insatiable appetite to spend more and more money every year.
Lennar is knocking $100,000 off these California homes.
I clicked on the link and it’s down for maintenance. Maybe they will drop it lower?
In the miami area, there are a lot of new condos that are comign on line or are on the verge of being constructed.
In coconut grove, “the grovenor” condo towner was supposed to have condos in the $1M+ range…i see many for sale in the low $700K range with no takers. Next to Cocowalk, the “mayfair lofts” are still under construction and there are still some units that have not been sold. They range from 400-800K range for 800-2000 sq feet. Construction seems to be moving at a much slower pace these days. I walk by the construction site everyday on my way to the gym and starbucks.
There is a re-furbished apt building that just got completed 2 blocks from coco-walk. They have “for sale” and “for rent” signs right next to each other. this place is huge…maybe 50+ apartments/condos on virginia street. I see a lot of sales people wandering around the parking lot of that apt building, but dont see anyone having moved in yet.
Cocowalk (shops, restaurants, bars, etc) was sold to a new orlenans based company for $80 Million. It was bought 2 years ago for $110-120 Million…so that complex was sold at a big loss. I see a lot of empty shops and “comign soon” signs that seem to linger indefinately.
I see an assorted for sale signs for townhouses and SFH, but not as many as a few months ago.
I was in south beach on Thu and saw the heavy construction on the southern tip of south beach…..near club niki and 112 ocean. Two massive condo towers are under construction. The place I like…”portofino towers” has many condos for sale, but prices are still outrageous. Realtors tell me that south beach condo sales is down to almost zero. Sooner or later, the sellers will blink and start dropping prices.
I havent been to downtown Miami in a while, but I see the all the construction from I95 when I goto Ft. Lauderdale. Downtown Miami area is going to be affected the most from the downturn in real estate. They are trying to re-vitalize downtown, but I dont think it is going to succeed. That area is crappy…even with newly constructed condos and shopping ares, it is still crap. I dont see why anyone would want to live there.
I would love to pick up a small condo in south beach when the market really crashes. I have a lot of family and friends who come to town and it would be great to have a second place as long as it is reasonably priced. Prices will have to drop between 40-50% before I would consider it “reasonably priced”.
As far as FB’s I know are concerned, a few of them have sold their cars so that they only have one car in their household. Entertainment budgets have been set to zero, cable TV, netflix, dsl, etc have been cancelled.
I think that 40-50% is a FB’s dream. Given how far prices have run so fast, I think many areas (esp. downtown) have more like 80% below them.
Unfortunately, I know several pools of investor money have been raised to buy up “distressed” properties in Miami, so it could take much longer for us to get there than it should. At least they’ll be cheap to rent!
A friend of mine who lives in Indiana told me that years ago he had a chance to buy into a 2/1 condo in FL for about $12k. Did they really get that cheap at one time? I wonder…
Wish it was not true, but the bubble is not completely over. I am in Houston, where a broker/friend invited to take a look at his new listing (less than 24 hours old) for a 6-plex, built around 1960, average rent of $700/unit, each approx 1000 sq ft, asking price $419k. He was so busy he scheduled several of us at the same time. There were about 4 brokers/agents, mercedes, Porsche, etc. on this working class street, and about 6 potential buyers, aboslute craziness. One guy said he was Dr. S. and would someone please take the offer he was waving in a manilla folder. One day later, there are now 4 contracts on it, but the neighborhood hasn’t changed much in the 20 years I’ve known it, solid rows of run-down 4-8 plexes, all with for rent signs, high crime area that floods regularly. What are these buyers thinking?
Its not too bad a deal. I’ve seen much much worse. Its very close to being cash-flow positive, but will require a commercial loan.
I noticed yesterday that a “for rent” sign went up across the street. This same house also has a been for sale for the past 5 months with no action. There is another house across the street which sits empty too that has been for sale 5 months and only one open house.
Both sellers won’t drop their prices, and just today, headline news in The Reno Gazette said homes will loose 30% value for 2 more years…
More homes going up for sale all the time with rigid sellers and pipedream prices.
I wonder how long these sellers can hold their stale prices.
Depends. Some are wanting to move up, but don’t really have to. Those are not in any financial bind and either will pull it off the market or just leave it up for sale for months on end.
Some are just testing the market. If they get what they want they will sell, if not they will stay or just rent it out if it is near break even.
Those that HAVE to sell for financial reasons, like loss of job, divorce, having to relocate will drop the price until it sells or let the bank foreclose. At least that is what is happening here.
Worst sign pollution day I’ve yet seen here in San Diego. They’re everywhere. It’s looks like that report on the coming declines freaked out a lot of realtors.
Some RE agent in Bellingham is advertising free laptops with lessons to buyers. Seems like kind of a small prize, considering 50% of the market here is price reduced. Don’t know if you have to actually buy the house or just hire him on as your agent to get the laptop.
In one of the great ironic moments of my week:
One of the girls from a neighboring office came in and asked me if I wanted to become a “loan originator” under her. Keep in mind she is an admin. for a calling card company…but really when it comes to writing mortgages who needs to know what they are doing anyway.
First she asked if we wanted to buy a 2/2 in Orlando and get 30K back at closing and 10K towards upgrades on a condo that currently is being rented out and producing positive cash flow. Of course she needed $1500 down.
Once the laughter stopped, I asked her about rehab and the crack cocaine problem…she has found Jesus…Helluluah!!!!
Then she told me it was an MLM and wanted me to join. I feel sorry for her, she has 4 kids. Her ex is doing time in the Federal Pen, etc….
When I asked her how much she has made…YEP you guessed it ZIP, ZERO, NADA. So far they only got $200 out of her to “join” their “sure thing” because you know…everybody is getting rich in RE right now.
So once I told her I didn’t want to go to the meeting, meet the snake oil salesman and see the staged house and cars the conversation ran into a wall. Nor did I want to see the online presentation…fuckin’ Amway by any other name.
I tried to explain Ponzi schemes and Pyramid cons to her…but she isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. Then I came to the disgusting realization that this was a Pyramid scheme inside a Ponzi scheme…damn it just keeps getting worse.
Veritas
The last sane man in Miami.
One of the girls from a neighboring office came in and asked me if I wanted to become a “loan originator” under her. Keep in mind she is an admin. for a calling card company…but really when it comes to writing mortgages who needs to know what they are doing anyway.
I know someone just like this. It’s a name brand MLM company. All you need to do is take a couple of classes to pass the state exam. Simple.
For fun I looked at all of the Bozeman, MT homes listed for $300k or more.
For $1+ million: 76 homes / 3 with contingent offers / 0 under contract. (4% contingent / 0% under contract)
$600-999k: 90/9/1 (10.0%/1.1%)
$500-599k: 83/11/3 (13.3%/3.6%)*
$400-499k: 126/15/13 (11.9%/10.3%)*
$300-399k: 191/22/19 (11.5%/9.9%)*
*Almost all contingent or under contract are for new condos under construction! In other words, out of town speculators, a large fraction of whom will never close on these condos. I went jogging through the “Village Downtown” luxury condo development a couple of days ago around 7AM… not a single light or sign of occupancy of any kind–for a development that has been going up since 2003.
Existing home sales are vitually non-existant.
Anecdotally, I can also report on a house and condo I’ve been tracking.
MLS# 131290 is a 2BD/3BA condo listed for $200k. Parents of my grad student bought this for $155k in summer of 2003, and have been trying to unload for two months with no action. There are a huge number of condos on the market in the same price range–everyone running for the exits at the same time.
MLS# 129299. Small but completely remodeled home in the “historic district”. Faculty colleague bought in summer of 2002 for $275k, did some minor remodeling, now asking $519k. They bought a new house in March without selling their existing home first (should be easy to sell in Bozeman, everyone wants to live here). Started as FSBO, listed on MLS for $589k back in May, dropped to $539k after a month or so, then two weeks ago dropped to $519k. They are still one of the highest price/sq ft in that general price range, and virtually no interest. Probably would have sold quickly at $450k back in May, but now…? Absolutely no offers for any of the ~50 remodeled “historic” homes now on the market.
In a nutshell, the market went over a cliff a few months back. 945 listings in early October is certainly without precedent in this market. Doesn’t even include a large number of FSBO’s. A high proportion of these listings are currently vacant (probably at least half given the large amount of new construction). In a couple of weeks, it will be winter here. Without all of the new construction condo faux sales, things would look much worse–and they look pretty bad as is.
At this point, most sellers are still in denial edging into anger. Median prices have been dropping month over month, but people are confused and can’t really believe that prices would ever fall in Bozeman. After all, everyone wants to live here!
Added tidbits:
Realty Times has stopped published month over month statistics… there is a concerted effort to spin positive this month. Year over year, Bozeman is up 5% in September. Given the 20% YOY stats through June, we are obviously heading down fast. When will they stop publishing YOY stats?
Big Sky (high end sky resort) is down 47% YOY!!! Of course, that stat isn’t terribly representative since almost nothing is selling.
Spec houses are still getting built in the area. It kills me to see the houses getting built alongside I-80 extending from Bozeman to Manhatttan. With so much land in the area, why in the world someone would want to buy a tract house between a heavily used freight line, and an interstate is just beyond me.
That said, I intend to profit from someone’s misery in the Bozeman area sometime in the 2008-09 time frame. The rubes (correct word) should be wrung dry by then. They won’t be desperate next year, but should be going broke by the year after.
Something interesting this week in my teeny town (outside Syracuse)…about 17-18 existing SFH’s joined the listings. That’s not normal around here. In the summer, I’d usually see 2-4 new listings/week. October is NOT the time to put your home on the market in this area as even in so called good years, traffic gets really slow. Once the snow flies, forget it.
So I’m wondering if:
A) ARMs are resetting and getting scary
B) People are starting to catch on about housing values and don’t want the loss
C) People don’t want to spend a recessionary stretch in a little town 10 miles away from any stores/jobs
D) Sellers are trying to get top dollar before the rest of the population catches on.
I’d bet that “A” is the predominant reason. There likely are many people who, having seen articles about toxic loans, dug out the loan papers they signed, read then and calculated the possible results. Those are the ones who will cut their losses by panicking first.
Drove thru a D.R. Horton tract in Victorville, Ca. this afternoon. Stopped counting completed houses at 50, only 8 were being lived in. The model that was going to be used as the sales office was fenced off as there was a fire in the attic area and the roof was caving in. Who knows, maybe a FB that could not get there deposit back ? 1 couple looking at the other completed models.
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? More open houses? Reduced prices?
I’m leaving Sunnyvale for my monthly week in Florida (business.) If I have time I’ll see if I can find an open home or two, or ask an agent to show me around…there’s a cluster of SFHs just north of where I have some land that amuses me…15 out of 40 are in MLS…some for over 6 months. None have budged after the initial buyers “grabbed” them, all built two years ago by Pulte.
Florida - Buy or Lease! offer from the builder.
Went to Sarasota-Bradenton during the week. On the way, passed a few ongoing subdivisions being built – one looked to be townhouses by Toll Bros., which for some reason surprised me. Frame construction – I guess for sale to Yankees, as real Floridians strongly prefer concrete block construction. WCI is putting up a small waterfront community near Ellenton, but it looks to be prime land. There are some true starter-level homes, small, new and apparently in the $100Ks, in Ruskin, but then you’re in Ruskin.
What I found at my destination was the predictably increased number of for-sale signs, but interestingly the largest growth appears to be in FSBO signs. To me, that is counter-intuitive. What buyers are going to fool with calling individual FSBOs in a market that has 4-10 times the inventory of a year or so ago? When there are way too many houses to see, I’d think the vast majority of lookers would use an agent to narrow down the field. I could be wrong, of course, but I think the heyday of FSBOing is gone for the duration of the crash.
Newspaper ads are increasingly desperate. In the 10/1 Orlando Sentinel, all ads by builders: “Lower your payment with a 50-year loan”; $1 move-in with 1-year ARM from their specified lender; Cambridge Homes – “Ask about the Buy or Lease Program!” - bet the neighbors will love that!
And where did the 10/4 Manatee Herald-Tribune put the Moody Report article? On page 10A, of course. No sense alarming the old folks, even though the title is, “Report Predicts housing prices in Florida will keep falling.” And a dozen house-auction ads in the classifieds.
In the 10/4 Sentinel, a full-page “Moonlight Madness” ad by KB Homes – “These great communities will be open until 11pm on Friday, October 6, and Saturday, October 7.” There’s a free $10 Target gift card for just stopping by (glad gasoline is not at $3).
What all this means to me is that used-home sellers are s-c-r-e-w-e-d. New-home builders, logically and predictably, will cut and cut and cut to move their inventory and that will drive down comps while it sops up virtually all housing sales in those price ranges. I’m really happy to be watching from the sidelines.
The house across the street from us here in North Park is for sale, the sign went up about a month ago. Young couple, two kids in diapers, paid $740K a year ago. Looks like divorce, the mister is no where to be seen. Asking price? Sellers will consider offers between $875 and $975. What the heck are they thinking? 3 bed/2 bath 1500 sq ft. in North Park…..any offers?
That sounds strange… Consider offers between $875 and $975, I think I wouldn’t really spend too much time considering the higher number. The snobbery will need to be toned down in the coming years.
From east Santa Monica (i.e, the not nice part of Santa Monica–if it weren’t for the ocean, it might as well be Van Nuys part of SM). Anyhow, notable increase in condos for sale. Prices are still absurd. $800k for 3/2 in circa 1970s “dingbats” with 0 character. This area may be among the last to catch the RE cold, but man does it have a long way to fall. I would bet lots of $$ these places will drop 30% in three years, and 50% wouldn’t surprise me a bit. We rent, but know quite a few friends who drank the cool-aid. Some held out knowing it is a bubble and gave in within the last year.
KB Homes is advertising on the radio that they are offering to either pay your first 6 months mortgage or $30,000 off the price of a new home in several developments around Orlando. I may have been inattentive, but this is the first time I’ve noticed actual price drops advertised as opposed to incentives.
From another thread….
“How is the Tehachapi market? An associate of mine purchased some land to build house on, er… speculate and become wealthy. Now he can’t sell the lot. He purchased last summer in a bidding war. I actually got into a shouting match with him (I like this guy) and begged & insulted him to not buy to no avail.”
Barely breathing. Last time I checked, 494 listings for homes and only 64 under contract. Lot sales are down more than 50%.
Yes, I know a couple of people like that myself (and I know very few people in town, as I live in a remote area away from whatever little hustle-and-bustle there is). They felt like geniuses a year ago and now feel a bit unsure. Both are “trying” to sell lots that they bought a year ago.
Jas Jain
From Berkeley CA:
Lots of houses open on Saturdays and Sundays, didn’t see that in the past.
Excessive use of arrow signs, I saw one realtor putting up 7 signs in a one block stretch for an open house. Two at east and west intersections bordering the block and three right in front of the house.
Berkeley Inventory is being added at an ever increasing rate up on Zip Realty. I don’t have hard numbers but looking at prices now it seems that you can get a house in Berkeley for a price that would get you a house in the surrounding towns last year this time.
Much more houses undergoing construction as folks try and fix it up and sell it quick.
I’m looking at a rather large info-ad in today’s SD Union Tribune from the San Diego Assn. of Realtors that makes me want to retch. My my, how times have changed when the local shills pay to place desperate, feelgood garbage like this. It’s aimed squarely at first time buyers.
Buying a Home is a Major Life Decision
Owning One is a Dream Come True
(Insert picture here of dressed up newlywed couple gazing into each other’s eyes in front of a house)
New home buyers Brandon and Candace are thrilled about their new purchase.
From our nation’s earliest days, home ownership has embodied core American values of individual freedom and self-reliance. Home ownership benefits individual families by helping them build economic security, and it fosters healthy, vibrant communities.
According to local housing experts, now is the best time to realize this dream.
(Fast forward through some nonsensical talking points on homeownership being good for families (HELOC), tax savings (maybe) and communities. Added stinger of achieving ‘the dream in San Diego’ becoming more challenging in the future.’)
Some more highlights…
Still Not Sure You Should Own?
Think about this… No rent. When you pay rent, you never see the money again. Paying on your mortgage is different. You are building equity in your home. At the end of your loan term, you’ll have money invested in the home that someone would pay directly to you if you decide to sell the house.
The ability to change your home as you like.
Always wanted a yellow kitchen or a back porch? In your own home, you can make whatever changes or improvements you like. This benefit gives you more control over your living enviroment, allowing you to make adjustments as your family changes or just as your personal taste dictates. Realtors and builders also point out the variety on the market.
Quote from Mark McMillin, of the Corky McMillin Companies:
“There is a wide-range of home styles available, meeting all segments of the market from first time buyers to move-up family homes. Anyone motivated to buy a home now can find many beautiful homes available with a number of fantastic loan programs. We are urging people to make their move now for an opportunity of a lifetime.”
DON’T MISS YOUR CHANCE TO OWN A HOME IN THE SAN DIEGO AREA.
Whether it’s a resale or new, a condo or single family, you can make your dream of home ownership come true.
Information provided by Building Industry Assn. of San Diego County and San Diego Assn. of Realtors.
I’d say these two groups are firmly in the DREAMING catagory.
Somebody mentioned Zillow further up the thread….
….does anyone know when thier next update will be? Is it a local, or a national thing?
Here in Los Angeles, there hasn’t been an update since sept 15th - almost a month.
Is this the same for other Zillow users in, say, FL or NY and SC?
Just sorta interested…Zillow supposedly has ‘weekly’ updates, but I’ve noticed that they’ve been getting less frequent since August…anyone have the skinny?
The Ahwatukee area of Phoenix had several Apartment Communities go condo. Here is one unit for sale among dozens in the area.
http://tinyurl.com/k32y5
Mountain Canyon sits up against the foothills of South Mountain and was a run down scorpion infested “Luxury” Apartment Complex.
The price may not seem high by California standards, but a fair price for this or any other 2 bedroom condo conversion unit in the are would be about half or less of the asking price.
Some of these complexes have been selling units for over a year and they still look like ghost towns once they force out all of the renters.
I have a feeling some of these ventures will either revert back to apartments or go up for auction. I also think the people who bought these at the current and previous inflated prices are going to be hosed.
“Realty Times has stopped published month over month statistics”
I was in Pasadena, CA today and decided to pick up the LA Times Sunday edition. Just like the past few weeks, dataquick’s year-over-year table of median house prices for various counties and cities in So Cal was mysteriously absent. HOWEVER, in it’s place, there was a NEW table showing how prices had changed FROM LAST SUMMER TO THIS SUMMER. In other words, they were comparing the medians of a WHOLE SEASON (summer in this case) this year vs. a WHOLE SEASON last year.
Next step…tables of 2 years ago vs. this year?
And I thought you guys that had thought up the 2-years-over-year concept were just being humorous…
The San Diego Union Tribune had this editorial in Saturday’s paper. Looks like they’re buying Moody’s malarky about an 8.5% price drop between last year and 2008 in SD:
“Home prices are falling, but the sky is not. Thus goes the consensus taking shape among economists who study the local and national housing markets. For San Diego County property owners, who’ve suffered a year or more of headlines telling them to head for the bomb shelter, it’s not too early for some guarded optimism.
This week the respected Moody’s Economy.com predicted that local home values will fall 8.5 percent by 2008 from last year’s peak. Then prices are poised to start rising again.
To be sure, any decline is shocking in San Diego, where the current slowdown feels like a calamity to some sellers. Suddenly those frenzied buyers of the past five years are waiting for deals.
But some perspective is in order. The average detached house for resale in the county has more than tripled in value, from $170,000 in 1996 to $622,000 by last summer. Even the most dire prediction, that of UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, which warns of inflation-adjusted losses of 20 percent over five years, would leave most homeowners sitting on a vast expansion of wealth.
Certainly, some are suffering. Those who bought recently will lose money in a forced sale. A condo glut spells trouble for many owners. And local home building may fall 40 percent this year, idling thousands of workers.
But a boom in commercial construction and public works is producing jobs. And San Diego’s world-class economy, with its thriving tourism, technology, service and military sectors, has cast a wide safety net under the housing market. Similar strengths support the national economy.
Economists will continue to pay close attention. Weakness in housing has preceded all but one recession since World War II. But for now, real estate is headed for a soft landing, not a crash.”
I mean, really… “the consensus”? The consensus among economists that the MSM has on speed-dial, perhaps, or those who work for U-T advertisers, but I’ve heard (mostly from this blog) about too many RE bears to believe in a true consensus among economists about the fall in housing prices.
Jogged through the high end ($500k to $1 mill plus) luxury downtown condo development in Bozeman, MT this morning: “the Village Downtown”. There is a big black and red “For Sale by Owner” sign taped to the front of the one complete building shell. Building two is just a an erector set with the land for buildings three and four now for sale. The developer is clearly running out of money, selling the units as “shells” and cutting way back on the development.
New name: The Village Ghosttown
Seattle Times now admitting to local slowdown for 2 days in a row. Saturday, and now, Sunday in todays RE section.
Local and national articles about pricing properties and figuring out comps in a falling market. Questions like “Will homes with a view in good neighborhoods hold value?” Answer: inconclusive.
Huge half page ad announcing “Real Estate Assosciation of Puget Sound” (a flipper group I think) is bringing Kendra Todd in to speak on sweeping up deals through foreclosures and general market distress.
Here’s the ad headlines:
“EXPOSED: Everything You Need to Know about Making Money in RE after the Housing Bubble Bursts!”
The other side of the story on the REAL ESTATE BUBBLE”, (dateline Seattle).
“”Come and meet Donald Trump’s Apprentice KENDRA TODD”
This is too wierd, after a year of staunchly denying any local bubble, suddenly some organization is taking out huge half paid ads touting the Seattle Bubble.
Guess the paper knows where it’ll be getting it’s RE money from now on.