A ‘Slow-Moving Train Wreck’ In California
From the Voice of San Diego. “Sales in September for detached resale homes were down 16.2 percent from August and 33 percent from last September throughout the county, according to Robert Brown, an economist at the University of California, San Marcos. For attached homes, such as condos and townhomes, sales rates were down about 23 percent from August.”
The Union Tribune. “San Diego County home prices dropped last month by nearly 4.5 percent, double the rate in August and the biggest year-over-year decline since 1993, DataQuick Information Systems reported. The $476,000 overall median was down $6,000 from August and off $22,000 from September last year, the biggest year-over-year dollar reduction DataQuick has reported since it began keeping local records in 1988.”
“The latest overall figure represents a drop of $42,000 or 8.1 percent below the all-time peak of $518,000 reached just 11 months ago. With housing back to its early-2005 levels, many sellers who bought since then will be lucky to get what they paid for their property at the peak of the five-year buying boom.”
“Meanwhile, sales continued their two-year slide with the total off by more than 35 percent to 3,207 transactions, the biggest year-over-year downturn since 1991. It was the 27th consecutive decline for the category on a year-over-year basis.”
“Charles Jolly, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors, interpreted the news as further indication that home buyers are in the driver’s seat. ‘I’m working with buyers now and they’re making offers,’ Jolly said. ‘They’re negotiating for the first time in six years.’”
The North County Times. “For the second straight month, local single-family home values failed to appreciate in September when compared with a year earlier, and home sales plummeted 34 percent from the same month in 2005, according to a new report compiled for the North San Diego County Association of Realtors.”
“The total amount of dollars changing hands in the single-family market fell almost as much, by 32 percent, from $721.8 million in September 2005 to $494.4 million last month, the report showed.”
“The condominium market didn’t fare much better. Both the number of sales and the dollar volume plunged 36 percent year over year, the North County Realtors group reported.”
“In another signal of trouble ahead for the market, foreclosures countywide have reached 127 for the year to date, 10 times the number for all of 2005, Carlsbad real estate agent Dennis Smith said.”
“‘I don’t foresee an avalanche,’ he said. ‘I do foresee an increase in those numbers because we are not seeing an increase in value to make up for the poor decisions of some buyers to purchase with the loans that they used.’”
“He said he was referring to families with interest-only adjustable loans and approaching balloon payments who were counting on refinancing into fixed loans. ‘So, is the bubble bursting? No. Is there a little air coming out of it? Yes,’ Smith said.”
The Fresno Bee. “Steven Cochrane, senior managing director at Moody’s Economy.com., said that Fresno’s prices simply climbed too much, too fast. ‘There was a lot of speculative money coming into the housing market. That was the case throughout the Central Valley … Fresno, Visalia, up to Sacramento,’ he said. Out-of-town buyers, mostly from the Bay Area, bargain-shopped in the central San Joaquin Valley, pushed prices up and now are leaving, he said.”
“The market is correcting itself and prices are falling, he said. ‘You can apply that word ‘burst’ or ‘crash,’ he said, because of the double-digit drop that is predicted. ‘There are two things going on [in Fresno],’ he said. ‘One is that there is an oversupply of houses, and demand is down.’”
“Joan Jolly, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors, said there is a current problem with surplus inventory and not enough buyers. ‘The bubble is deflating. The air is coming out of the bubble, but it hasn’t popped,’ she said.”
“Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist at the California Association of Realtors, said predicting what will happen in the housing market in the next few years is tricky.”
“‘This is a market different than anything we have seen before,’ he said. ‘A downturn in housing usually signifies the economy will be slowing down in the future.’ ‘But, we didn’t see that. … We are in unchartered territory.’”
The LA Times. “Economist Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics described the residential real estate market as ‘a slow-moving train wreck. We don’t know how bad it’s going to be,’ he said.”
‘Thanks to a 19 percent increase in foreclosure activity, California leapfrogged past Texas and Florida to report the most new foreclosure filings of any state in September. The state documented 14,806 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, nearly three times the number reported in September 2005 and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 825 households — 1.3 times the national average. The state’s foreclosure activity has risen more than 40 percent over the last two months.’
‘A California real estate salesman faces life in prison after he pleaded guilty Monday to drug trafficking. Medina’s lawyer, Kenneth Stover of Reno, asked for lower bail so his client could return to California and take care of his real estate business. ‘Prior to bringing the drugs up, he was a real estate agent. He just married. His business has collapsed,’ Stover said.’
‘U.S. new home prices will fall this year for the first time since the 1991 recession as a glut of properties for sale forces builders to offer discounts, the National Association of Realtors said.’
“His business has collapsed”
__________________________________________
One down 10,000 more to go!
Well given that “The total amount of dollars changing hands in the single-family market fell almost as much, by 32 percent, from $721.8 million in September 2005 to $494.4 million last month, the report showed.” a lot more RE brokers/agents will see their business collapse as well!
Cocaine trafficing real estate agents, a real estate crash, a miami vice movie? Do you think deck shoes will come back into style?
I think I might have some pastel leisure suits!
Having them is one thing. Fitting into them is another. Everyone knows that suits shrink when you leave them in the closet for a couple of years.
What do you mean? When did they go out of style? I wear them every day.
In fact, for twelve years I bought the same style of Dexter Navigators every 18 months. But then they moved to China and their quality took a hit (went from lasting 18 months to 3), so I switch to Dunhams. Considering how long the Dunhams last, I should have switched long ago.
Do you wear them with socks?
never
and roll your pants legs up tight around your ankles?
Black dress socks with Dolphin shorts.
LOL
I’ve always wanted the T-shirt under the suit to come back in style as it would reduce my dry cleaning.
Its stylish here in Hollywood
I am with you! They are always good!
Places like Urban Outfitters (appealing to the ironic crowd) started selling deck shoes again last time I was there, which was a while ago.
I was ahead of the curve when I bought some Jeff Spicoli slip-on checkered Vans back in 2000. Come around 2004-2005 and they were for sale all over the place.
I’ll have to admit though, I never saw the deck shoes for sale in Urban Outfitters coming.
Everyone knows you’re joking with the Vans and deck shoes, but things like Z-Cavaricci’s will NEVER come back in because they look so incredibly ridiculous.
I thought I was the only one having this problem - tho not w/Dexters….. Mine is w/shoddy Nike’s…and other miscellany
“The state documented 14,806 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, nearly three times the number reported in September 2005 and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 825 households — 1.3 times the national average.”
This represents the inevitable aftermath of bag’em-and-tag’em lending operations.
Yee-haww! California RE sales declines, now you’re talking.
I know you’re waiting for affordibility in Venice, lainvestorgirl, and you will find it if you are patient. Asking prices in LA have fallen 6% in the past 12 months, and this is only the very beginning of the foreclosure tsumani. Once the wave hits, prices will go into freefall: http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/California/LosAngeles
THANK YOU. I think my new favorate color is red.
LA COUNTY IS STILL the last big-daddy west coast bubble region(along with Frisco)which needs to POP BIG! Expect foreclosure rates to skyrocket in the many deteriorating LA innor city pockets where FB’s used 0 down,I/O,neg AM,no-doc’s, stated, ect, to overpay for 500-1000 sq ft ancient pre-WWII built stucco stick-shacks in such lovely gangland paradises as Watts, Willowbrook, Compton,Wilmington, Bell, East LA,Scentral, Cudahy, lynwood, Boyle hts, El Sereno,Jefferson Park,Huntington Park,La Puente, ad nauseum. By mid-2007 1 in 10 homes will be in foreclosure process in these LA subprime areas as their “owners” have no skin in the game and will walk out with nothing to lose but a damaged credit rating.
“California leapfrogged past Texas and Florida to report the most new foreclosure filings of any state in September…. the state’s foreclosure activity has risen more than 40 percent over the last two months.”
****
We’re # 1 and pulling away!
- “The latest overall figure represents a drop of $42,000 or 8.1 percent below the all-time peak of $518,000 reached just 11 months ago. With housing back to its early-2005 levels…
One can only wonder what the TRUE DECLINE really is with the builder discounts and the for sale by owner.
… plus the fact that those numbers were contracts from several months back in time.
You guys are just pretenders to the throne. We’ll get it back next month! Go Florida!
Unfortunately, I have no doubt about that…
This is going to be a high scoring game.
Nevermind, Neil.
We’ll get them on sheer quantity. The Central Valley alone will make Florida look like a boom town. If we have to, we’ll call up Palmcaster and the IE to swamp them. So to speak
Oh man,
This sports metaphor is more like a bunch of ant colonies going at it than any small squad athletics…
Palmcaster is definately toast. The IE… at least they’re getting some jobs.
Did I read correctly that September foreclosures in CA in 2006 are 4X 2005? Oh boy… the marching band has left the field… Let the games begin.
Neil
And SoCal WILL beat NoCal in this game!
Google and YouTube money will save them all!
NOcal will rally late in the game to beat ya’ all!
Right on Niki. Sacramento will help you lead the pack on a per capita ratio, thanks to all your bay area investors who rolled into town with a bucket of money. They are starting to roll out slowly now, looking a bit sheepish. Let the tough ones hang for a while. A few years of eating $40,000/year negative cash flow and they will stop defending their $750,000 flipper houses losing equity at $100,000/year. When they get to $400,000 they can toss it in to the bank on a short sale. Another year, and the banks can bunch them all up for auction.
drove by a short sale in Cupertino, CA the other day. First time seeing one of those in quite a while…
“Economist Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics described the residential real estate market as ‘a slow-moving train wreck. We don’t know how bad it’s going to be,’ he said.”
Correct me if I’m wrong………..but is there such a thing as a slow moving TRAIN WRECK?
Absolutely, when each car on the track weighs 50 tons +. You can have a hellacious wreck even at 20 mph. Momentum equals speed times mass. More mass = more energy. More energy equals more wreckage. That’s what we’re looking at here.
This is a RE blackhole. Nothing that is sucked in would escape. Or it’s more like hell, very easy to enter but impossible to exit.
Right, impossible. Here in the East I’ve had an awful lot of conversations with people whose friends have had something on the market many moons with ZERO offers, not even lowball offers.
No, it’s more like a train shipping blackholes across the country. No market is safe. And credit will be sucked in faster than the fed can create it when the wheels finally come off.
Event horizon. Pushing on a superstring? Man I’m a dork. Where can I get some boat shes?
Maybe this is the new phrase (like soft hard landing).
Real estate is a train wreck, but it’s a SLOW MOVING train wreck. No risk of a fast moving train wreck (as long as the fed doesn’t raise rates).
It doesn’t matter if it is going fast or slow, if someone has a bad seat (100% I/O loan) or is in the way of the train (stubborn sellers), they will get hurt.
So now I understand………….
Slow moving train wreck= Soft landing.
Good…………I feel better now
Bwahahahaha
Actually, I think this a corruption of “slow motion train wreck” — you know, the kind where you get to watch everyone on board get mangled and maimed in excruciating detail. A very apt metaphor, IMHO.
Ten days ago I emailed a guy telling him to auction his mother’s house immediately for the good of his whole family. My exact words: “With four mortgaged house, you are all standing in front of a speeding freight train.” I guess if I ever hear from any of them again, I’ll have to correct that: you are all on lying on the tracks in front of a slow-moving freight train.
It may be filmed in slow motion, but the train in question is careening down a mountain pass with no brakes. Meanwhile conductor David Lereh says: “More coal, we’re making real good time.”
As I’ve said before, the difference between a ‘hard’ landing and a ’soft’ landing is who it lands on.
(Sort of like that NY Yankees pitcher yesterday…does it count as a landing if you stop before you reach the ground?)
I believe the train wreck analogy represents the massive momentum and scale of the housing bubble. This crash will unfold over a period of years and in stages. Prices will not move downward much until property sales become mandatory and we can get rid of the “indignant seller” nonesense.
GH,
Definitely.
slow motion train wreck …
To paraphrase above L = mv. There is so much energy involved in getting 50 ton cars to move, even slowly, that when the front of the train wrecks the following cars just keep piling on. It’s not like a car crash where, boom, it’s over. For slow moving trains you get to watch each car derail and get crushed. You think with each additional car it will finally stop but it doesn’t. The cars just keep coming, and coming and coming, slowly one at a time and get turned into scrap metal. So the whole train wreck can take several minutes to unfold and there is so much momentum involved that nothing can stop it, you just have to watch it unfold knowing that the car 20 cars back is going to get destroyed in about two minues and there is nothing you or anyone can do about it.
It’s momentum, not exactly energy. Also, L is usually reserved for angular momentum. Linear momentum is normally “p”.
Point taken, of course.
And of course you’re absolutely right, too, but if we thought of this particular train as running on a track that encircles the globe, we could make jokes about what goes around comes around etc
But in electronics we would think of it as current flowing into an inductor which we would label L. A really big inductor, which is about to saturate, with some voltage sensitive components behind it. Oh never mind …
Oliver
Ahhh Electronics. Inductance is not a bad analogy to our current situation. In an inductor a current with a fast rise time meets with increased impedence and in effect “pushes back” reducing current flow, just as our housing market is now pushing back.
There is no University of California, San Marcos. It’s a Cal-State. CSUSM.
nice catch! I was just about to post that myself
That is wonderful - I can be an economist at at the University of California, San Marcos! I always wanted to teach at the University of California.
UCLA and UCSB started out their lives as CSU’s more aptly CSU’s predecessor names.
But San Marcos, now that is a stretch.
Glorified Palomar JC
“This is a market different than anything we have seen before,’ he said. ‘A downturn in housing usually signifies the economy will be slowing down in the future.”
Reports lag reality in economics. We are already in recession as of Q3. It will be reported Q1 2007. This guy is spouting happy gas.
If I were a paid shill for the realtors I would throw up my hands and say I didn’t understand the current market trends rather than forecast doom.
Median home price in San Diego is down 8.1% from the top; according to Charles Jolly buyers are in the drivers seat; so, is it a good time to buy? Perhaps, if you want to drive off a cliff with the Lemmings that bought at the top. At what price point will u buy? 20 or 30 or 40 percent from the top?
I am guessing purchase prices and rents will once again line up at 40% or more off peak. I guess that translates into $311K for the median home which sold for $518K at the peak.
GS,
I think you’re too being way too generous. If we lose 40% (a definite possiblity), there will be a severe recession. At some point, I expect rents to decline (not yet, as they are still rising at this stage).
Since there have been no real wage increases here since the late 90s, it’s very possible to see 1997-2000 pricing — barring any bailout/manipulation. In some places, a 50%+ decline is very likely. Patience…
Yeah. The unsold “spec” house I am renting in Maine is covering only 1/3 of the builder’s carrying costs. He is simply desperate as the bank is eating him for lunch. I suppose I’ll lose it eventually ’cause he’ll go BK, and even then I doubt I’ll want to buy it. Lots of other rentals in warmer climes will be available.
Yeah, but calling the exact bottom is quite hard. The best combination of price and selection is actually before bottom is hit. By the time prices start going up inventory (and therefore selection) has decreased dramatically.
Agreed. In my neck of the woods, a 45% drop in prices will get the price to rent ratio in line with historic numbers. Once prices come down that much, I might look to buy.
Actually it would be more like being on a ledge under the cliff, seeing all the lemmings falling past, and deciding that it looked fun and joining in…
Charles Jolly, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors
Joan Jolly, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors
and is that a good name for a realtor?
There’s dentist around here named Benjamin Chew.
I don’t know, Ben has been Jonesing for a cheap house
I’ve Ben Jonesing for a cheap house!
How about a dentist called Dr. Payne!
I used to go to Dr. Fang.
My brother went to Dental School with a guy named Thuck Vu. I think he was Vietnamese.
My dad had a student name Phuc Yu.
I hate to even say this, but my Dad (a 6th grade teacher in Porterville, CA) once taught a young hispanic kid named Manuel Laba.
There was a colon/rectal surgeon in Dallas, Dr. Louis Stoole(the med students referred to him as ‘loose stool’)
My mother went to a gynecologist in the Phila area in the 1950’s named E. Kent Balls.
Sheesh,
With names like these, I would change my name to Meatloaf of something.
There’s a law firm here in OC called Payne & Fears. Would only be better if it were “Payne & Suffren.”
I went to law school with a Vietnamese girl named Bich Thu. Her first name was pronounced “Bitch” — seriously.
San Diego law firm of Morrison and Foerster… they call themselves mofo… their website is mofo.com. Talk about truth in advertising!
Ad agency - Huckster & Schill
Law firm - Dewey, Cheatham & Howe
There is a law firm in San Francisco named
Low, Ball & Lynch.
I don’t think they handle RE matters, but it would be poetic if they did.
Charles and Joan Jolly are actually an ex-couple. They used to have a Bay Area real estate practice together. Got divorced and went their seperate ways about 3 years ago…the same time their son, NFL tight end Doug Jolly, was traded from Oakland to Tampa Bay.
Believe it or not, I have a relative whose maiden name was Carol Holly, and she married a guy named Jolley. Reminds me of the Burl Ives snowman’s song in the old ’70s “Rudolf” Christmas TV special.
And I believe her sister married a guy named Berry. No kidding.
I knew a couple of brothers named Wild Rice and Broccoli Rice.
we have an employee here and her last name was Pleasure and she married a gentleman named Colon.
Her name comes up as Pleasure-Colon, I am not making this up!
I went to camp with a counselor from Roxbury, MA, whose name was Candy Cane.
My sister was delivered by a doctor named Dr. Nurse.
I was delivered by a major in the US Army whose last name was also Major. Yes, there was an actual Major Major in the army during the mid 60s. I’ve been a big Heller fan ever since.
Dewey, Cheatem & Howe
I went to school with a boy called Orson Carte….
..no, seriously, I did.
Ok, it sounds a lot funnier if you say it with a Cockney accent.
My sex therapist maiden name was Getzoff. Her married name is Daley..
she elected to hyphenate..
For the man who feels inferior, Pad Prik is on the menu at Thai restaurants.
If you read the whole Thornberg quote, this follows the train wreck comment: “He expects the market to bottom out in early 2007.”
What is this business about reaching the bottom in early 2007? Why on earth would that happen? The new federal lending guidelines were just issued; state-regulated mortgage lending guidelines are due out this fall. Prices in CA are already dropping in (mostly) little increments, and the downward momentum is in place. Seems to me price drops will just be becoming amusing come early 2007.
Or does Thornberg think that BB will drop interest rates then, and that will save the day? Seems pretty silly, considering that we are way beyond interest rate issues in this state. So much of the market has been fueled by Option Arms, IO teaser rates, 100% financing, etc. — and that’s the piper that still must be paid, even if BB somehow drops interest rates to the floor.
His REIC constituents must pay more when he says the market will bottom out sooner. If history is any guide, the future will prove him wrong by at least three years.
Exactly. A few months back, several regulars posted the site that listed the UCLA Anderson School’s major institutional “benefactors”, which basically was a who’s-who of Fortune-500 REIC mortgage & home-builder companies. You don’t want to bite the hand that feeds you. Besides, as a high-profile economist/”forecaster”, far better to err on the side of caution, then revise estimates downward later vs. predicting Armaggedon and being wrong.
All the Thornberg guys have to do to maintain their credibility is to be more bearish than the next-most-bearish big-shot economist. Even if you think a 50% drop is possible, if the next-most-bearish guy is calling for only 10%, you look prescient if you say 20%. As long as you’re ahead of the curve, you look good.
Same with gazelles: You don’t have to outrun the cheetah, just the slowest gazelle.
Well said!
When I go camping in areas where there are bears I ALWAYS invite a buddy I KNOW I can out run for these very same reasons!!
Thornberg is a fraud, and yet he somehow will go down as the guy who gets the most credit for predicting the crash. Whatever.
I would rather have Thornburg quoted in any newspaper than Gary Watts or David Liareah.
I’d rather watch women’s billiards over Desperate Housewives. Luckily those are not my only choices.
There is a new TV series coming to a boob tube near you. It’s called the OC. Will we see Gary Watts in an action spot???
‘Seems to me price drops will just be becoming amusing come early 2007.’
You’re right. During the last bubble implosion, a lot of people were saying CA RE prices would bottom out in 1990, then 1991, then 1992, then 93, then… well, by then nobody believed it anymore. It’s like Bu$hco telling us about how the situation in Iraq will be improving any day now.
“Economist Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics described the residential real estate market as ‘a slow-moving train wreck. We don’t know how bad it’s going to be,’ he said.”
Christopher — Got blog? I think that “slow-moving train wreck” description may have originated here…
HI Gs, You asked me about the PPT- did not see ’til the other night. Posted my response to you on todays Bits Bucket. In response to “Is the Fed with Wall Street…” Let me know what you think - tomorrow. I am going fishin’ now.
Hell yeah it did. I said it over a year ago, that was the feds aim. Barely perceptible to the observer. T-berg, you owe me man!
“The $476,000 overall median was down $6,000 from August and off $22,000 from September last year, the biggest year-over-year dollar reduction DataQuick has reported since it began keeping local records in 1988.”
$22K is about four-months worth of income for the average SD household. Not a bad drop, but I suspect more is on the way, as those who made foolish bets on forever-high rates of appreciation will end up selling into the downdraft, and push prices down by more.
“Which dominoes will fall next”?
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/19785/the-us-housing-bubble-which-dominoes-will-fall-next.html
Very interesting — the Brits are picking up on Mish.
Joan Jolly said ‘The bubble is deflating. The air is coming out of the bubble, but it hasn’t popped,’ she said.”
A distinction without a difference Joan Jolly. These cheerleaders never hesitate to pick scabs with their words. I think it’s a freudian indication of their denial brought on by the alarm bells ringing in their wallets.
anytime these people are splitting hairs like this, you just have to laugh and ignore. these quotes are getting better and better
Its a psychological phenomenon called cognitive dissonance.
They’ve come a long way from “There is no bubble!”. This is a realtwhore admitting to a bubble. Think how far we’ve come in just 6 months.
But, we do have a realtor admitting that there is a bubble. That was unheard of six months ago.
Nah, of course not, not “popped”. It’s just deflating “off the Richter scale”, according to DR Horton.
Medina’s lawyer, Kenneth Stover of Reno, asked for lower bail so his client could return to California and take care of his real estate business.
Begging to let this criminal return to CA to take care of his RE collapse. He should have his sentence made much harder for his many real estate crimes (presuming guilty before any evidence). Since he has a life sentence, he should then be sentenced to hard labor. A great job for him would be to have to call up FBers and let them know how far underwater they are. LOL
Too bad he didn’t make cars like De-Lorean then he could have walked.
-
Does this look right? Can it help us predict the duration of the correction?
1980 Bust
1981 Bust
1982 Bust
1983 Bust
1984 Bust
1985 Turn
1986 Boom
1987 Boom
1988 Boom
1989 Boom
1990 Turn
1991 Bust
1992 Bust
1993 Bust
1994 Bust
1995 Bust
1996 Turn
1997 Boom
1998 Boom
1999 Boom
2000 Boom
2001 Boom
2002 Boom
2003 Bubble
2004 Bubble
2005 Bubble
2006 Turn
Gekko - it appears to me that the bust is about one year longer than the boom - and we never had such a bubble. Based on this illustration, I would say we have 9-10 years before we can think of turning around…
or, looking at it another way, if the late 80s can’t be called a bubble but the last 3+ years can be termed a bubble, we could be in for a much different experience than in the early 90s.
maybe each bubble year = 3 regular years. Oh well, I guess it will be 2020 before this turns around!!!!
or, there was no real bursting of a bubble in the 90s (just a “slow leak of a balloon”) because there was just a boom period without a real bubble forming, but this time there is a bubble and it will burst.
Actually, If I were to guess at it, it will probably be much shorter than that, but the magnitude of the drop will be greater. My reasoning is that in the past few years RE crossed the line from being a place to live to becoming an investment. In doing so, it now is subject to all of the volatility associated with it. Right now we are still in somewhat of the denial stage. Once the must-sells who can now longer service the debt begin to hit the tape, the downward momentum will accelerate. Similar to stock market corrections which tend to be swift.
Thank you! Yes, downturns are swift. This one started a year ago now. The bottom will be reached around mid-2007.
Name one real estate downturn that was swift.
I’d say not so swift. I think it takes a while for the bankruptcies to pile up and the regulators to pressure the banks to dump their REO’s. If we get to that point, that’s when the fire sale will be IMO.
Err, bankruptcies should be foreclosures. Those things take time.
90’s was east and west and the in between states either went nowhere(mid west) or crashed w oil in 85
it’s different this time !
The prior scenarios provide an indication of what could happen, but from everything I’ve read the circumstances are somewhat different this go around. My 2 cents.
let me give it a shot
1983 Bust
1984 Bust
1985 Turn
1986 Boom
1987 Boom
1988 Boom
1989 Boom
1990 Turn
1991 Bust
1992 Bust
1993 Bust
1994 Bust
1995 Bust
1996 Turn
1997 Boom
1998 Boom
1999 Boom
2000 Boom
2001 Boom
2002 Boom
2003 Bubble
2004 Bubble
2005 Bubble
2006 Turn
2007 Bust
2008 Uber-Bust!
2009 Bust
2010 Bust
2011 Turn
I’ve been saying 2012 is a “bottom” for a while now and I do like the “Uber-Bust!” touch of waiting_in_la.
But after thinking about and reading this discussion, I’m willing to say it’s going to be even later. This bubble far exceeds the other peaks in the last 30 some years (average California monthly mortgage payment is 22% higher than at the least peak, adjusted for inflation).
How much later, I don’t know.
Didn’t Eric Janszen say 2013? Or was it 2017? Or somewhere in between…
-
Annual Total Returns
Year Nasdaq 100
Index®
1986 6.89%
1987 10.49%
1988 13.54%
1989 26.17%
1990 -10.41%
1991 64.99%
1992 8.86%
1993 11.67%
1994 1.74%
1995 43.01%
1996 42.74%
1997 20.76%
1998 85.43%
1999 102.08%
2000 -36.82%
2001 -32.62%
2002 -37.53%
2003 49.45%
2004 10.72%
2005 1.90%
9/29/2006 0.87%
-
If Housing mirrors Nasdaq meltdown sequence (disregard the actual % numbers, other than indication of +/- and severity, not actual predicted numbers. I believe the psychology and the sequence of the “madness of crowds” repeats itself - albeit not exactly.
2005 102.08% (Peak Year of Cycle (2000 for Nasdaq))
2006 -36.82%
2007 -32.62%
2008 -37.53%
2009 49.45%
2010 10.72%
2011 1.90%
9/29/2012 0.87%
You know the Mayan calendar abruptly ends in 2012!!! Omen???
Thanks for the insight. I’m trying to wrap myself around all those Busts.
Also agree with “waiting in LA”. The BIG year of the downturn will be 2008 or later *barring a bailout*. I think it will also go beyond 2012. There are demographic changes this time which will put downward pressure on prices for a long, long time to come.
What do you all think of this little personal RE bubble story……..
I have friend in Marin county just north of SFO. He has a really great home in San Rafael. Early last year I suggested to him that he sell his condo in Kona and pay off his home, to my surprise he did this. This summer he found a smaller home on the water to down size into. So far so good. I said great, just sell your home first. Oop’s, some one else wanted the waterfront property, so they took out a bridge loan last week and bought it for 1.5 million. His current home has been on the market at 1.95 million for 60 days with no offers. I believe the take out on his loan cost over 10K and I can’t imagine want the monthly cost of a bridge loan would be? His wife sez no problem as “Marin RE will always hold it’s value”.
Now the punch line……..we are both retired from ual and when our pensions went to the PBGC, we lost over 40% of our monthly checks.
Me thinks he is playing with fire………
Your friend is toast. Keep telling your friend’s wife to repeat praying “Marin RE will always hold its value, so help me God” at the altar. The lord might have some mercy for her. But I heard that Mr. Market doesn’t have any mercy at all!
My parents are about to put their “$3M home” in Kentwoodlands on the market. I haven’t had the heart the tell them about this blog or that they won’t get anywhere near what their house appraised for in 2005 when they refinanced to get a HELOC. They bought in 1997, so hopefully they’ll be okay.
Don’t you think you should tell them so they don’t go crazy with the HELOC?
Walt,
Tell them about this blog now. It’s better for them to sell now than to wait a year and then sell. I’ve been through this in my own life, always lower than many, but never low enough to get the right offer.
Lip
time to stop by the church gift store to get the statuette for the yard!
Chrisinpnw,
My Dad, also a retired UAL pilot, moved from a large house in La Quinta on the 7th hole to Memphis into a huge house on the 5th hole. When he heard of the UAL shenanigans he sold and bought a really nice condo with cash on the Cumberlin River in Dover. He saw the writing on the wall and said he wanted to get himself into a position where UAL couldn’t screw him. We know several UAL reitired who wern’t so fortunate. Cue Gershwin music.
“Now the punch line……..we are both retired from ual and when our pensions went to the PBGC, we lost over 40% of our monthly checks.”
I still can’t believe that the U.S. is willing to f#ck over its pilots. Most people don’t realise what the job requires, i.e., no DUIs, no obesity, good motor skills, an I.Q., unscheduled time away from home, etc., and yet the courts allow it happen. Makes me wonder when my turn is coming.
Even the realtors “have a bridge to sell ya….”
Let me know where the property is, I’d be happy to take it off his hands in 2008 during the foreclosure sale.
“Slow Motion Train Wreck” is actually pretty accurate.
Here’s why:
People are HELOC’d into ridiculous prices and simply CAN’T lower their prices to sell.
Thus, many, many Californians have NO OPTION but to allow their homes to go into foreclosure, be sold at auction- or go back onto the MLS.
Most homes WILL NOT sell at auction first time around, since the asking price will begin too high for buyers to buy.
Therefore, a “Slow Motion Train Wreck” scenario does appear to be unfolding.
Multiple auctions per house, multiple re-listings on the MLS, and more bankruptcies than we’ve ever seen in human history in a short span of time.
This is what came of ‘Flip That House’, ‘Property Ladder’, and ‘Buy Me’.
Yet another America Hysteria, ending in poverty and pointless human suffering.
Think I’m gonna go buy the wife and I a nice steak dinner at Lonestar to celebrate.
Nicest “Slow Motion Train Wreck” I’ve seen in years.
Bring on the ‘Pain’!
“Most homes WILL NOT sell at auction first time around, since the asking price will begin too high for buyers to buy.
Therefore, a “Slow Motion Train Wreck” scenario does appear to be unfolding.
Multiple auctions per house, multiple re-listings on the MLS, and more bankruptcies than we’ve ever seen in human history in a short span of time.”
Sounds like you’re predicting a bubble bursting in ‘07, rather than a slow motion train wreck.
Some things I know for sure, people on average are much more likely to walk away from obligations than they ever have been in the past, people are in debt moreso than any other time in our history, and banks aren’t going to play landlord. Add all that up and I hear a big POP in the future.
“Sounds like you’re predicting a bubble bursting in ‘07, rather than a slow motion train wreck.”
I guess it depends on how long sellers can hold their carrying costs before going into foreclosure, and then how long it will take houses to get sold over mulitiple auctions- in an attempt to find the ‘right price’.
For instance, if there’s 17,500 homes on sale per zip in OC right now, plus FSBO’s that aren’t listed, how long will it take the majority of those homes to go into foreclosure?
Then, how long will it take to sell them at auction?
The bubble IS BURSTING. There’s no question about that.
The question is, ‘When Will We Start Seeing Dramatic Price Drops’?
I’m guessing we’ll see moderate median price drops until around the end of ‘07. Then comes the whompin’ ass poundin’ sound of the juggernaut collapsing under it’s own weight.
If all these sellers are hell bent on bankruptcy over coming to the table with cash in hand, I think that’s how it’ll play out.
Hard to forecast mass suicide, though.
My brain just don’t think that way, I guess.
I just don’t see someone spending 60% of their income on a house that’s worth 10% less than what they paid when they put no money down in the first place. Once it’s clear to the masses that the bubble is bursting, people will stop making payments, even if they theoretically could make another year’s worth (or two) of payments.
My thoughts exactly. Once they’re convinced that prices aren’t going anywhere but down, they’ll bail in droves.
“Some things I know for sure, people on average are much more likely to walk away from obligations than they ever have been in the past, people are in debt moreso than any other time in our history, and banks aren’t going to play landlord. Add all that up and I hear a big POP in the future. ”
You’ve got that right. These people have had no skin in the game from the start so walking away is pretty easy for them. They can file BK and be back in the game for the next bubble a few years from now.
“They can file BK and be back in the game for the next bubble a few years from now.”
Now there’s a subject I’d like to be educated about.
Okay…let’s say you file for bankruptcy in California because you are ‘upside down’. What happens to the debt? How long is your credit ruined for? How long until you can buy a house again?
I’m not a bankruptcy specialist, and I know the laws have changed…so if any you could offer your intelligence on this subject I’d be very appreciative.
I know someone who got an A paper mortgage less than three years after a chapter 7 discharge. He had credit cards back before that.
Oh my God.
What happened to the debt?
If that’s the case, we’re looking at mass, mass bankruptcies.
Three years? That’ obscene.
Did the bank eat the debt?
auction heaven,i can get you a home loan 24 hours after you are discharged from bk.
It was all credit card debt and thus unsecured, so yes, the banks ate it.
WOW.
Why in the world am I trying to lead an honest life, then?
Does God see you if commit bankruptcy?
I now feel ashamed to be good.
Wowzee, wow, wow.
Sure, you can go straight from BK to homeownership, but that’s now. I suspect credit will be a lot harder to come by next year.
Sure, you can go straight from BK to homeownership, but that’s now. I suspect credit will be a lot harder to come by next year.
That’s a fact. Bankrupts will be financial lepers, just like they used to be.
But the mortgage will be underwritten by CalPers, and if you default causing retiree pension defaults, high court judges have already said that the state’s taxpayers will make up the difference. So, you see, it really is a magic show scripted by wall street!
Something like 80% of the people that could declare BK before the new law would still qualify to have all their debts wiped out under the new law. So just wait 7 years when RE is back on the upswing and repeat.
I don’t see the incentive NOT to play the RE bubble game if you have no substantial assests to lose in BK. Huge upside. If you can’t beat em, join em.
Makes me sick that some person with a terminal illness and huge medical bills is treated the same as some “Mr and Mrs Too Much Homebuyer” by the BK court.
The IRS should garnish their lifetime wages to teach them a lesson.
Bubble Buttt I agree with your assessment, but that is what really pisses me off. I realize some people have serious hardships, but the majority who waaaaaay overextended and then walk away only to come back in 3 years is not right. If all of this is just a big game then what the f%^&? What good is trying to make all the bills on time and paid in full? What a crock our whole economy has become in this country! Most people past their eyeballs in debt, and/or, consuming waaaaay more than they will ever need or use. We import waaaay more than we produce. How sad it has all become. BTW, this disease knows no race, religion, creed, sex, or AGE GROUP. I had to put that in because after reading the battle yesterday that had to be the longest thread ever, more than 350 posts, I had to say something. This diseased economy is equal opportunity and it is called greed, when reduced to its lowest denominator. People weren’t happy with the size of their home or the modest vacation. Had to have more, more, more, of everything, whether or not they could afford it!
People weren’t happy with the size of their home or the modest vacation. Had to have more, more, more, of everything, whether or not they could afford it!
PIG NATION!!!!
Everyone’s agreed that the high level of consumer credit has led to insanely stupid misallocation of resources. The disagreement is who to punish for these moronic loans: the idiot borrower or the idiot lender. There will always be people stupid enough to borrow their way to the poor house. But because having money to lend usually requires SOME degree of ability to manage resources, punishing lenders through the granting of bankrupcy protection to borrowers seems more likely to slowdown the debt express. After all, if individuals CAN’T borrow, they’ll have to save.
I’m just worried they are going to punish me, the taxpayer who saved their money and is not in debt.
“These people have had no skin in the game from the start”
That is definitely part of it, but the stigma of bankruptcy or of walking away from one’s obligations is basically gone, at least in big cities.
Not to get on the high moral ground or be preaching, but shame is basically gone on everything. I once read that the only universally unacceptable things are: cannibalism, incest, rape, and molestation. I am not sure if that is right, but the list of items that have a sigma attached does seem to be dwindling every year, so we shouldn’t be shocked that bankruptcy is off the list.
If what you guys say is correct, with getting ‘back in’ after a
bankruptcy being only a matter of three years, I’d put the big POP at the end of ‘07.
I guess that’s the key to this whole rotten tomato.
How long will it take for these sellers to go into bankruptcy?
I’m putting my money on summer of ‘07 for mass California bankruptcies, and fall/winter of ‘07/’08 for major bubble popping median price drops.
Where I live murder and renting are quite taboo.
I thought it was 7 years if you walk away from house in CA. Perhaps I am wrong. Anybody point to specific documentation? (Not just anecdotes)
Yes thats exactly what will happen. I saw it in the early 1990’s in S. Cali
> people on average are much more likely to walk away from obligations than they ever have been in the past, people are in debt moreso than any other time in our history
Agreed.
> and banks aren’t going to play landlord
What about the government? Wasn’t there a fund made with all the houses from the savings&loan crisis? The government could attempt that again, and then homeowners would press the government not to sell at “ridiculously” low prices (meaning prices of 2001 and before). The government (meaning we) would pay for this madness.
The problem with the government keeping the houses and not selling, or allowing the banks to keep them and not take the hit is that’s largely what led Japan into their 15 year depression they are just coming out of. The S&L bailout and RE downturn in the early 90’s sucked, but not nearly so badly. Better for everyone to take the hit and move on.
I still want to know when you will disclose what you do for a living?
Also, who the hell is that Johnson clown on the OCRegister blog?
If I told you what I did for a living, I’d get the big ole axe, that’s for sure. Wish I could, but I can’t. It isn’t sexy, or powerful, or amazing though, I can tell you that. I just happen to talk to a lot of people every day who are at ease, and don’t mind sharing important stuff with me. That’s all. Nothing sexy.
As for the Johnson guy…I don’t know who you’re talking about. What does he post about?
Johnson is the razorblade due on OCR’s blog.
In a year, I will be posting offers to help his lender shove the razorblades up his a**.
He is a little annoying and a one note wonder.
Oh yeah, the razor blade guy.
I guess we have to kind to the special people.
Even the ones that dribble.
Dude, whatever you do for a living, I’m stilling cheering for you to get that house you were dreaming of by the beach, next year. It’s so awesome here, I used to take a small vacation at least every three months, but ever since I moved here (SM area), I haven’t gone anywhere, have no desire to.
So you are a psychiatrist or you work for the shadow government.
Just kidding!
Gosh, you guys will be so disappointed in me when I’m finally able to tell.
Maybe I should quit my real job and do something sexy just so I’ll have a good story to tell.
“…Yeah…I was out at Area 51 testing out the newest Alien Spacecraft that dropped out of the sky when this guy started telling me about these 34 houses he was trying to flip in OC, but nobody would buy them…”
This isn’t too difficult given the clues.
He works for the MSM in some capacity. Reporter, syndicated writer, something like that.
Do you know Mulder and Scully?
“He works for the MSM in some capacity. Reporter, syndicated writer, something like that.”
Txchick57 would have been correct, if this were 5 years ago.
Dropped out of all that to live next to the ocean in Huntington Beach.
Damn good guess, though. Damn good. How the heck you came up with that is beyond me.
No, nothing like that now. My job is public. Therefore, all the info that I get from the ‘public’ is from my job. That means I’d get axed if I said where I worked, since I’m giving away peoples plans, desires, anecdotes, and personal info on this blog.
Just a dumb little anonymous job that gives me insight on the pulse of the public brain, that’s all.
Dreams of fame and riches are overrated.
I’d rather be anonymous and be able to walk around with Haagen Daz stains on my shirt than get hassled for an autograph, any day.
Besides, I’m addicted to the ocean, which is where I’m headed right now. Small waves, big waves, it don’t matter. It’s the best exercise around and I’d gladly trade fame for it.
Fame and notariety mean travel.
Happiness is simpler than that.
I’ll take happiness, and a pay cut, any day.
Sorry to disappoint y’all, but there’s really nothing here to see.
Move along, now.
My vote is for pool boy!
Canvasser or pollster for a local politician. Maybe a congressman or senator.
Congressional Page?
He’s David Liareah’s biatch.
When writers get tire of journalism, they tend to go into PR. A good gig near Huntington Beach would be as a city employee or UCI or some such cushy place.
hopes and dreams in govt? Small business development or economic development?
Gigolo. High priced one of course.
Auction Heaven, may be you own/work at some kind of Health and beauty spa.
Where man is at ease and do not mind sharing information. These are the Interesting clue to keep thinking…
I would think
so, how’s your business ?
mine’s collapsing too
what do you do?
sell gps to service contracotrs- they all got in deep w the builders after swaring them off in the 90’s
What would a pre-bubble price be for this? Really nice looking property. Jim the Realtor, if you’re out there, what would you offer for this?
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/219298327.html
prob not more than 450… lot of land though…skewing the value
That Fallbrook listing has 343 bearing trees - I have a friend who bought last summer (!) in that neighborhood and she had 20 orange trees and it was no picnic. I don’t think being a farmer is a plus in this case.
If you sell the fruit, you may or may not break even - depends on the cost of watering, fertilizing, maintaining, etc etc.
Not sure if you know but this is Fallbrook. About 40 miles north of San Diego. Pre-bubble price for this would be around 400. My wife’s ex-colleague had a similar home in FBrook and their total cost (land + building) was a shade under 400, in 2000.
-
Start Amount $400,000
Rate 3.50%
Years 6
End Amount $491,702
I’m a bit of a glass-is-half-empty person, but… this is almost due west (downwind) of a nuke plant, no?
EAST, dammit, EAST!
I’m directionally-challenged too, sorry.
Anyway the comment holds. Do they include geiger counters and a good supply of iodine pills with the house?
And maybe some X-ray film cartriges on the walls, so if San Onofre happens to blow, they’ll have nice exposures made of what your insides looked like when you were alive. Something for your surviving loved ones to remember you by.
Now that’s a “glass half-full” comment!
I grew up in Fallbrook and it’s 19 miles due east of the San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant which is just south of San Clemente. USMC Base Camp Pendlton is between the plant and Fallbrook.
Speaking of fruit in Fallbrook (the avacodo capitol of the world), we had 10 acres of avo trees and it was more of a tax write off than a money maker. I used to hate the chores associated with it growing up but it did allow me to make a little spending money and to take the catalytic converter off of my El Camino as we told them it was an “agricultural vehical” (fire hazard). That seemed really important to me when I was 16. That and my Farrah Fawcett poster, oh and Led Zeppelin.
DOB 1964?
LOL! I’m DOB 1964 and I had that poster!
Hope yer not a kkk-loving racist f%ck like every member (and mothers) of the Fallbrook soccer teams I played against back in the club days. We had two white kids, me, and about 14 of the type that Fallbrookers seem to hate. We kicked the snot out the team every year - but their sidelines started enough fights and forced enough terminations that we began boycotting the match (better to take a forfeit that to get shot by bigots).
I kid you not - Fallbrook leaves a baaaaaad taste in the mouth.
-THAN to get shot…
WeRent,
I can assure you that your experience with Fallbrook is not the Fallbrook that I know. Yes, Tom Metzger, moved there back in the ’70’s and started his little KKK Aryan club but what I saw is people constantly vandalizing his house and students harassing his kids to the point to where they had to be taken out of public school BECAUSE of their affiliation with that group. We didn’t want him there and Fallbrook by simple association has suffered image wise because of him. Your portrayal of Fallbrook as a racist hotbed is understandable considering your experience but unfortunately racism (and skinheads) exits in every city and town. To paint a whole community with whatever happened at your soccer games is a form of bigotry itself.
And by the way, I know you didn’t mean it directly but your pondering about me being a racist based on nothing except where I grew up leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
When I saw that house my first thought was forest fires.
Txchick,
Here’s the MLS listing with more pictures:
http://tinyurl.com/qd8uz
Not sure how familiar you are with Fallbrook, but that house in in the De Luz area which is waaaaay out there in the middle of nowhere on narrow, hilly winding roads. The property looks to be mostly sloped and the house hasn’t been upgraded by the looks of things.
Personally, I wouldn’t offer more than $350K (lowball) or $400K (probably a reasonable price). That house & property look like they have major maintenance issues.
Of course, if you like being far away from anyone & anything, then that property would be very nice!
You could befriend the local Aryan Nation / KKK kooks, lots of room to burn crosses.
I can’t wait to see the old Slate and Leone (sp?) ads for bankruptcy. I remember seeing them 20 years ago in college. It will be bittersweet to see that old guy telling us to call 1-800-whatever the numebr is. That is going to be the new business to get into. I suspect a good 3-5 years of solid work. Just think, with all the work, then you could out buy some of these overpriced POS.
OT i spent a little time at Appraisersforum.com today,they have a thread debating whether or not there is a bubble….hop in and have some fun,these boys and girls need some educating.
hop in and have some fun,these boys and girls need some educating.
I used to hang there until I discovered this blog.
The hardcores are all gone.
Most current posters are idiot newbie trainee’s workin’ for chump change at a two-bit, rubber stamping hackshop, churning out computer canned drivel on sub-prime garbage for some mortgage sleazebag ready to cut his throat because he isn’t makin’ 40 large a week anymore to pay for his McMansion, Hummer, wife, kids and 2 mistresses.
These drones ain’t got a clue.
I’m not sure I have a grasp of how you really feel.
LOL!
Yeah, man, I can feel that you’re trying to tell us something.
Whew! California real estate prices falling. San Diego prices falling 4.5% last month! Significant! An additional 3% this month or will it be 6%?
3 month T-bill rates are starting to go up again, in case people did not notice. I ordered another $1,000 worth. Makes $3k in the last 3 weeks. Usually I buy $1k per month. I’m going to buy me a California ocean view home in 2012 at a huge discount! Nice thing about that - property tax will be based on the lower purchase price. I love Proposition 13! It was the first proposition I voted for when I was 19 and when I first became a major fan of the free market. I still am a major fan of the free market at age 47!
Prop 13 has nothing to do with the free market.
I remember how all those statists came out of the woodwork with those scare tactics back when the proposition passed. Let’s see: “Prop 13 has nothing to do with the free market.” So low / no taxes are not synonymous with free market economics? Let me ask Ludwig Von Mises that question. Oops, he’s dead. But I disagree with you based on common sense.
“I remember how all those statists came out of the woodwork with those scare tactics back when the proposition passed”
Please stop. You’re just embarrassing yourself.
“Please stop. You’re just embarrassing yourself”
- Not really. It’s just your delusion. Have another Shroom.
This is my first post, after lurking for many weeks. I had my first encounter with a “sign” of the times. In my neighborhood, I’ve noticed a handful of properties which have sat on the market for quite awhile. A couple of weeks ago, one of them got a new addition, a “In Escrow” sign attached to the top. A couple of days ago, it was gone, and has not returned.
I’m in a condo complex in South O.C., California, and one building over from that is another unit which has both a For Sale and a For Lease sign on it. Easily been well over a month it has sat.
One of those in my neck of the woods. On the corner, a for-sale sign next to a for-rent sign, same address, same condo unit. The rent price is pretty reasonable, similar to mine. $5 says he’d rather sell.
Been on the market for 4-5 months now (rental sign, maybe 2-3 months).
Within a half mile of my house are three houses that are both for sale and for rent.
Where did the sign flipers go? back to school?
“For the second straight month, local single-family home values failed to appreciate …”
Gotta admire the media’s ability to come up with euphamisms when prices are dropping.
This is an awesome listing from ZipRealty.com:
http://tinyurl.com/qmcbo
Description:
Beutiful flor plan, 3bedroos, 2.5 bath, big kitchen whit familyroom and brekfast area, and estudio whit french doors can be 4 bedroom
In Funtucky? Please spare me.
I love that name, but I thought it was Fon-tucky. It’s amazing how things like that stick to a town.
“Beutiful flor plan, 3bedroos”
I’ll just put my kangaroos there!
Zip must only have one agent for SoCal. She’s the same one I see for properties here in Costa Mesa. Boy, she needs to proof read her listings.
And 500k+ for Fontana - holy crap my drawers - that place is, with apologies to those who live there and love it, an armpit.
Here’s a sad tale…. yesterday I was eating dinner at a nice eatery. I looked up and my neighbors (hot) x-wife is my waitress. I asked her curiously how she was doing - knowing full well she made out very well in the divorce and I didn’t ever think she’d be serving me. She said sheepishly, “I invested my divorce settlement in (Gulp) condos. I thought they were a sure bet. After taking my T-bone order, she confided in me that she bought (4) condos and they’ve sat on the market over 6 months without a single offer. I looked out the window… the fiery red San Diego sunset seemed all too aprapos. Whew, I almost asked her out!
Maybe her ex-husband will buy it back at the auction….
Daniel, I love stupid hot women. Just don’t give them any money or let them make dumb–s decisions concerning money…..like buying condos in downtown or in any other place in SD. How old do you think she is?
The sad thing is she is not alone. Tons of flippers caught with their pants down.
She graduated from H.S. in 92′…unless she was held back (possible so -given her stupidity) she’s 32.
Any advice on REITs? Thinking of betting against. (Leaps)
God I love california! Just moved here from Chicago last year in August at the peak, I didn’t buy. I guess I’ll be watching the ride down for many years to come. Every thing tells me that we have just begun.
Are you the same “waiting_in_LA”? We have someone by that name already, if you’re not. Perhaps you might want to change the username to waiting in LA 2 or something?
Not trying to butt in, but have had the same thing happen to me and saw another poster go through the same thing the other day “happy renter” vs “happy_renter”.
If you’re new, welcome!
The San Diego collapse is finally over! Yippie:
http://tinyurl.com/f7zov
“We have a housing shortage and a great diversified economy,” Maloney cited as his reason for optimism.
———————
When you hear a$$inine comments like, you really understand why some people dislike realtors (I’m trying to be nice here).
We have the highest inventory EVER in San Diego, and these nitwits are trying to fool people into thinking there is a “shortage” of land.
More Housing Bubble Blood Letting:
http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=russwinter&nextdate=10%2f12%2f2006+23%3a59%3a59.999