Post Weekend Topic Suggestions Here!
Also, don’t forget to send you housing bubble photos to:
photos@thehousingbubbleblog.com
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
is the inventory still growing or we have inflected with the onset of colder weather in Northeast?
Resale inventory has been dropping slowly in the Northern VA areas. This drop isn’t from sales as more properties are listed each month than are sold. The decline is expired listings that do not get relisted and people who give up and withdraw their house from the market.
Some market pundents have been saying the worst is over because of the decline in inventory. They fail to realize that sales are continuing to slow so we still have 11 months of supply. We may have a dead-cat bounce in spring but I think the months of inventory will go much higher next year because of a continued slowdown in sales and a sharply higher foreclosure rate.
I agree. Once an owner shows an attemt to sale the house it will always be for sale. Regardless if it is listed on the MLS. If you count all the homes that have cycled through the MLS it would be three times the current MLS #’s. It just goes to show how many people considered their home purchase an investment. Anyone who is selling their home this year never intended to live in the house long term.
some codos and townhomes go to rental status w big alligators chompin
some sales in 22151 at march 05 pricing
how long till we hit 03 prices= ouch
and don’t forget the homes that were withdrawn from MLS in September in anticipation of all the buyers coming out of the woodwork next spring! Local realtors have been telling sellers that business will pick up in the spring. OK so add all the re-list homes to the homes that will go up for sale for any other reason.
Where and in what price range are actual sales still happening?
Good question AZ lender . I would like to find out that answer because the market has really changed in the last 2 months .
Was listening to XM radio this am in my car. I forget if it was Bloomberg or CNBC.
The announcer said that several of the big banks (forget which) predict the Fed is gonna DROP rates this or next neeting. Almost all predict a drop in early to mid ‘07.
The responder said: (paraphrase) “are you kidding? retail sales are up the last 3 months. Wages have risen, gas prices are down. The consumer seems as strong as ever”
To me, it now seems obvious that the Fed will risk inflation/hyperinflation to save housing as much as possible. Otherwise they would have raised. Instead, they’re squaking like chickens and then holding the FFR steady.
Perhaps the Fed actually does see housing as “too big to fail”, specifically because of Fannie/Freddie, all the MBS out there, and the potential “systemic risk”.
A little stealth inflation to steal the bailout from us, instead of repeating the obvious S&L bailout?
I wonder if we don’t end up like Japan with a deflation problem after this plays out. Japan tried to inflate its way out of its bubble and had interest rates at basically 0 % but no one would spend. There seems to be a consesus that this can’t happen here, but certainly the Japanese are not any less capable at solving problems than us.
“We named the *dog* Indiana.”
HCI-
What the hell is a fall in mortgage interest rates suppose to do?
14+ increases from the FED and the 30 year rates have barely budged. (To my great bafflement)
The money printers really want to put the brakes on RE and get things back to reality, you need to push to the mid 9’s, like Greenie did in ‘94
The RE mess still boils down to a market run-up fueled by toxic loans.
The fool pool has been fished out.
People are being educated to the realities of being stuck with a highly illiquid “asset”.
Feds can do a Jap drop for all that matters. But the point still remains-av. incomes cannot purchase an av. house at today’s levels.
FED is stuck in the mud.
Dropping rates won’t solve the issue. The effective interest rate for purchases is below what they can sustain the dollar on due to funky financing and the total overextension of credit. It’s doomed to implosion - suckering in more buyers only extends the population who will suffer.
What the hell is a fall in mortgage interest rates suppose to do?
14+ increases from the FED and the 30 year rates have barely budged. (To my great bafflement)
The Fed sets very short term interest rates. Longer term rates, like the 10-year (which is what the 30-year mortgage generally follows) are set by the market and its expectations. Obviously, the market expectation is that over the next 10-year period, rates will moderate. That doesn’t rule out a big spike in short term rates at all.
Now whether “the market” and its expectations will turn out to be correct over the next 5-10 years, that’s a whole ‘nother story.
“What the hell is a fall in mortgage interest rates suppose to do?
14+ increases from the FED and the 30 year rates have barely budged. (To my great bafflement) ”
I know. But who are we kidding, people aren’t buying based on 30 yr fixed anymore anyway.
One of the big causes of a housing meltdown will be when people’s ARMs reset. When they reset, they will of course reset higher. The people are in trouble because they can’t afford the new payment, they can’t afford to sell, so they foreclose.
Dropping the FFR will likely drop the ARM rates. Thus, as people get to their resets, their payments don’t jump as much, and thus less of a “shock”
This will NOT lead to increases in housing prices again. But it may slow the fall of housing prices.
Thus, the fed may be trying to engineer a “soft landing”. By allowing as many people as possible to either refinance into ARMs (because 30 yr fixed are so “expensive”) or by keeping their payments down upon the ARM reset.
It just buys time. In the end, it’s giving borrowers more rope to hang themselves.
But borrowers have proven that they are stupid beyond belief. Many of them will be thankful for the gift from the benevolent fed.
In the process, lowering the FFR will of course cause the dollar to start losing value. thus, we Americans will become more “competitive”. Thus, our incomes (in nominal of course) will rise somewhat. Or at least not fall as far as they were falling due to global arbitrage.
Reducing the fed funds rate prematurely will cause inflation and once the bond markets realize we aren’t headed into a deflationary recession they would demand a lot more than 4.8% yield on 10 yr treasuries. The other problem as you mentioned would be a significant deterioration of the dollar. This will fuel inflation as imported goods are more expensive, and will also create a glut of bonds as foreigners refuse to buy dollar denominated assets. We could see yields go through the roof, which would really put the screws to housing. The only thing that can help housing would be wage inflation, and I think global labor arbitrage through offshoring and massive illegal immigration is going to keep a lid on the price of labor.
I don’t expect the FED to cut rates until late 2007 after negative GDP growth is reported and both stocks and housing have lost a lot of steam.
I can see how lower rates would help homeowners who got sucked into the mania and purchased more house than they could afford, but I’m not sure how much lower rates will help folks who bought two, three, or more homes with the intention of selling quickly at a profit. How long can those “investors” afford to wait before they must sell? I see lots of empty homes here (Vegas).
“People are being educated to the realities of being stuck with a highly illiquid ‘asset’. Feds can do a Jap drop for all that matters. But the point still remains-av. incomes cannot purchase an av. house at today’s levels.”
Exactly. My husband and I are currently renting and have no motivation to purchase a home right now. Why? Housing prices are simply too high relative to incomes. We just don’t want to put ourselves at financial risk by buying a house. If we had to move a few years from now, who could afford to buy that house from us? At the current rate at which wages are (not) increasing, the answer to that question will be: No one.
Nope. Watch the bond market.
For those of you who believe lowering the FFR is going to quickly reflate the housing bubble I suggest you read Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics, and Crashes. According to a book review written by Hans Melberg:
First, there is some exogenous shock (policy switching, technology, financial innovation). [MBS, Credit Default Swaps, ownership society, new HUD risks models, downpayment assistance programs, taxcuts]
Second, the boom created by the profit opportunities after the shock is fed by increasing money supply. There is little to be done about this because the money supply is endogenous (new banks enter, personal credit increases, new credit instruments are used). [H and R block et al, Home builder banks, Hedge Fund lenders, Pay Option Arms for the masses]
Third, the boom leads to speculation that initially has positive feedback; speculators earn money and invest more as well as making more people invest. This leads to what Adam Smith calls “overtrading” which can be caused by pure speculation (buying something with the aim of selling it later at a higher price), overestimation of the true expected return and excessive gearing (low initial cash requirements when buying something). [Most of us remember the homeless guy with 4 or 5 homes, negative equity downpayments, and so on; we're all too familiar...]
Fourth, the overtrading spreads from one market to another (psychological links and others). [First they said it was a local phenomenon; now we know it is national]
Fifth, speculation spreads internationally (again, psychological mechanisms are important, as well as: arbitrage, foreign trade multiplier, and capital flows). [Asian financing, Australia, Ireland, US, UK, ...]
Sixth, at the peak some insiders leave the market, there is “financial distress” and a bankruptcy or the revelation of a swindle leads to the final stage; the rush for liquidity. The panic (or “revulsion”) feeds itself until prices become so low that people are tempted to once again go into less liquid assets, trade is cut off or a lender of last resort convinces the market that there is enough money for all.” [CEOs sell shares and earnings turn down, a trickling of speculator led auctions, conversions reversions, construction project funding withering away, criminal fraudsters, FNM yet to report. Still awaiting credit crunch and FRB and Congressional intervention]
*Comments within [] are my emphasis. So, my answer is no; reflation will not quickly happen. Did not w/dotComs, Japanese land and stock bubbles, 1929 crash, tulips, south sea, mississippi, beanie babies, …. In other words, after a while the market becomes oversupplied/saturated, investment expectations sour, demand slows, and the fad comes to a crushing end.
One topic that I think is interesting is the recent surge of new posters asking “trollish” or naive questions.
Why now?
In my tinfoil hat moments, I think that NAR/CAR is paying under-employed REIC employees to sow Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt on RE bubble blogs.
It is an interesting dynamic.
I’m sure that’s directed towards me.
i’ve said before, I refuse to drink anyone’s kool aid. Even Ben Jones’. (it tastes very good).
I like to bandy about many different hypothesis. By doing so it keeps me nimble
I don’t see why it has to be trollish to go against the grain sometimes. Why can’t we have rational discussions on this board anymore?
It helps me little to read all the time:
“there will be blood in the streets of everywhere! nowhere will be saved! I will buy a house in Del Mar for $1!!!! Let the flippers and Realtwhores starve and die! David Liarrheah can kisss my ass!”
Instead, for me, I’d like to delve into:
1) what are the current market forces that are out there for housing at this point in time.
2) what sorts of intervention can or will be attempted to “save” housing, and by whom
3) can any of those interventions have an effect on the housing market, or its prognosis.
What I see myself right now is:
1) housing is tanking faster than the REIC and the govt foresaw
2) housing is often a harbinger for the economy. the REIC and the govt know this
3) there have been obvious attempts by the govt to fluff housing in the last few years (e.g. “ownership society”, greenspan’s infamous “get into ARM” lecture, no delisting of Fannie, idly sitting by as horrible mortgages were written)
4) nhz has written about a bubble being extended for many years by govt intervention (meddling)
5) the Fed is theoretically committed to fighting inflation using inflation targets. Inflation is ABOVE their own admitted target. And yet they do not raise the FFR. why is that? I would argue, because they fear systemic risk from housing collapse.
6) Many economists are predicting a FFR DROP early next year.
So my question seems perfectly rational and appropriate to this board:
What effect will dropping the FFR have on the housing market?
It will OBVIOUSLY have an effect. The question is, what will that effect be, and how effective?
I find it humorous that most on this board agree that raising the FFR to 20% would have an effect on housing, but dropping it back to 1% would not.
And yes I KNOW that dropping the FFR to 1% would kill the dollar. But are the morons willing to do that? Remember Helicopter Ben? How many times has the Fed allowed deflation to occur?
Amen to all.
question - If FFR goes to 1% (or whatever “kills the dollar”), then the rate on T-bills would have to go up right? (make buying a $ more attractive to foreigners buying our debt). How is this rate connected to mortgages? People won’t buy a 5% MBS when they can get a T-bill @ 7%.
Am I wrong or is my 10,000 ft. view correct?
I don’t think that comment was directed at you, imo. There have been a rash of comments that have been trollish but none originated from you. At least the ones I considered trollish. It doesn’t matter anyway as there are an infinite number of bloggers willing to bring facts to the table to back our assertions. Good questions don’t count as trollish.
With regard to your FFR question, I think it is legitimate. My opinion on this is that the momentum is too great to the downside for any action to have a major impact. All the fools are “in” and the rest are quite content to watch. There would be a flurry of buying at 2001-2 pricing with rates down significantly from current levels but just think of all the extra inventory of 2nd homes, flips and overbuilding that need to be burned off. I just don’t think there are enough qualified buyers waiting in the wings to make a substantial difference, regardless. Too much forward demand has been sucked dry, so this will take years to ramp up again. IMO.
This is a battle with deflation so the Fed will seek to avoid an American ‘lost decade’ (or two) with all its might. The problem is that the US has lost much of its productive capacity i.e. there isn’t much left to inflate. Ask the Japanese what it feels like competing against $1 an hour labour.
Nah, it wasn’t it was drive by posters.
I know your posts HIC.
I find it humorous that most on this board agree that raising the FFR to 20% would have an effect on housing, but dropping it back to 1% would not.
The outcome’s the same, you’re just altering the speed at which we get there. Figure it this way… the knife’s deep in housing’s gut — do you gut’em (20%) or simply withdraw it slowly (1%)? It’s not treatment at all, just different levels of pain & suffering.
which is an interesting point in and of itself: why bother having a FOMC? Why not just set a fixed (regulated) rate of interest at, i dunno, 10%? if the economy sours, change laws, lower taxes, increase spending; if inflation surges, do the opposite… I know I’ve aswered my own question, the FOMC provides a cover for incompetent legislators (elected by uninformed voters) But it wasn’t always thus, no?
How come the stock market is going up, up, up? How come consumers are still buying like crazy? When we here are collectively hunkering down?
See today’s article in NYTimes:
Fed Reports Resilience in Economy
By JEREMY W. PETERS
Published: October 13, 2006
Maybe the sputtering housing market will not be that big of a drag on the economy after all.
Falling gas prices are leaving Americans with more money to spend, and inflation has become less of a threat in recent weeks, according to a report released yesterday by the Federal Reserve.
Wall Street reveled at the news. Stock prices — already buoyed by a series of strong corporate earnings announcements from companies like McDonald’s and Costco — surged even higher after the Fed’s report, the beige book, came out yesterday afternoon.
The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index jumped to its highest close in more than five and a half years. The Dow Jones industrial average, which last week broke a record high that had stood since 2000, climbed past 11,900 to close fewer than 53 points short of 12,000. The Nasdaq composite gained more than a point and a half.
go to article for the rest…
didn’t hurt Uk much- they fell late 04 then have slightly rebounded in 06= weird
I’m sorry, but I read that as they “fellate” 04…
I guess this “sucks” for everyone
Why would stock markets tank? Wealthy investors have never had so much money to invest, and low capital gains & dividend taxes make equity markets even more attractive. Where are they going to invest? Real Estate at these cap rates? It is interesting that consumer spending hasn’t decreased overall given stagnant wages and increased housing costs but then again, maybe certain income groups have spent less - Look at Walmart’s numbers. Costco is selling well - cheap gas is always in style and have you noticed that they are one of the largest if not largest fine jeweler around? They simply enter markets where people with lots of disposable unearned income are shopping. We may never see 3 x income pricing for housing again, but this 6+ x income pricing can’t last….
I’ve asked the same questions. It is very frustrating to see the rise in stocks. It goes against all logic. My feeling is that many investors have seen a flat NYSE for some time. Now that it is going up everyone is jumping on the bandwagon to make a quick buck. But I think it’s going to crash soon. Politically there are many who want to show that we have a strong economy. But this blog (me too) seem to support a recession theory. I’m stumped.
We’re entering a traditionally strong cycle for stocks - mid-fall in the mid-term year (esp. 2nd term) of a presidency.
Earnings may not be all that important - P/Es have varied wildly over the past 30 years. Is a P/E of 16 cheap or expensive? We traded happily in the 20s for years. In the late 1970s through the early 1980s there was a long period of single-digit P/Es.
Despite the rhetoric, the stock market is looking through the housing muddle and giving fairly high marks to the current handling of the economic situation by the Fed. The market also loves declining budget deficits. It’s always the direction of variables that is important, not the actual level.
Very well said, particularly “the direction of variables.”
And, as a foreigner, I am utterly amazed how all of a sudden the Trade Numbers (a new record monthly deficit in August announced yesterday morning, rather than the forecast mild decline) are boring to the point where they don’t even appear to be news.
The MSFM discussion seemed to rapidly come to a consensus that it was due to Christmas retail orders, and thus evidence of a strong US economy.
Yeah, right.
(Well I suppose the Santa Claus connection does have some relevance here.)
“Now that it is going up everyone is jumping on the bandwagon to make a quick buck. But I think it’s going to crash soon. Politically there are many who want to show that we have a strong economy. But this blog (me too) seem to support a recession theory. I’m stumped.”
The stock market appears to still be very much in the mania of the 90’s. Manias defy logic. This is a final effort to pull every last sucker in. When the crash comes, it will be a wild ride.
I totally agree with you. Sorry that I got out early but, not tempted to jump back in.
I read somewhere, sorry no citation, that while the indexes like the DJI are up right now, the rest of the market is not up, the non indexed share have not seen gains. So even the perception that the markets are doing well may be skewed.
With a 50% divorce rate in this country, and a decent standard of living now necessitating 1.5-incomes, I am at a total loss as to how the system is running.
I hear ya’
Alcohol!!!!
“How come consumers are still buying like crazy?”
Because that’s what consumers (i.e. Americans) do.
“How come the stock market is going up, up, up?”
I think one of the main drivers of this is that there is nowhere else to put your money. when stocks tanked, RE went up early on partially because RE was considered “safe”. now that RE is tanking, people have forgotten 2000-2002. They are listening to the radio as it says “Dow is at an all time high!” they are seeing “housing bubble crashes”. most investors don’t understand commodities, but what they do know of them is “they’re dangerous, my uncle’s friend lost his shirt on soybeans”. Plus, with Amaranth in the news, it really hurt commodities in general. A $6 Billion loss in 1 week has a way of doing that.
There are of course Treasuries, but those are being bought right and left too.
Thus I think there was a flight to safety (Treasuries) and to the “known” (equities)
Also, earnings for many companies ARE up.
this can only last so long, of course. But how long is so long?
I’ve said it 1,000 times on this board: although long term trends can be predicted in the equities market, in the shorter term it is more of a random walk. That’s why timing is so darn hard.
It’s 1929 all over again…
How about a listing and discussion of “false positives” statistical data (both macroeconomic and housing) give the market.
Example 1: Median price declines. Although down somewhat yoy median prices do not include discounts, upgrades, cashback, and other benefits that accrue to the buyer which are considered “below the line”. The “false positive” is market prices are better than they are in fact.
Example 2: Sales volumes. Materially overstated due to the exclusion of cancelled purchase contracts. The false positive is sales are better than they are in fact.
I’ve been seeing a lot of home builder offers with financial incentives attached to them similar to automotive and furniture industry offers. Morrison Homes’ *Move in for $1* is an example. I also read a startling article describing the role home builder wholly owned or joint venture influenced lending units play in the selling situation between builder and ‘captive’ home buyer. Link to article: http://tinyurl.com/y7p98e
What do you think about this incestuous relationship between lending units and builders? Is it good for builders and bad for buyers? Or, is it good for everyone involved in the sales transaction? Did this relationship play a role in inflating prices during the early stages of the housing bubble by directing buyers to risky financing options and is it playing a role now in keeping prices inflated?
How about this issue: what is a soft landing?
I expect a soft landing, but my definition of the term is a lot different than that of the NAR. In my definition, the price of housing retreats to affordable levels (by traditional measures) in three years, with big nominal decline in 2007 and real declines afterward, and the excess inventory is absorbed at lower, affordable prices. But the economy is either flat or has a mild recession in 2007, followed by a recovery, instead of collapsing.
I call that the good “soft landing” scenario, and I think most posters here would agree. Especially those writing about canned goods, ammo and “senior vittles.”
I would call that a soft landing for the economy, but not for the housing market.
I have proposed the following scale a couple of times, and judging by the MSM headlines we’re starting to see in various states it seems to be holding up OK.
Using category 1,2 etc meanings from hurricane parlance;
Soft Landing = Real median price decline
Hard Landing = Nominal median price decline
Category 1 Crash = More than 10% nominal median price decline
Category 2 Crash = More than 20% nominal median price decline
and so on.
A nominal median price decline is a lot harder than it seems at first glance, due to buyer substitution effects and increasing seller incentives that are now being frequently remarked on.
I would consider a nominal median price decline of 10% to be a very soft landing. That would only be enough to take the tip off the rediculous prices. 30% would just start to be reasonable prices. I wouldn’t consider it a hard landing at less than 40% nominal median decline.
I respectfully disagree.
A 40% median price decline is similar to what happened in the Houston area during the 80’s oil bust, and that was regarded (and reported) as an almost apocalyptic crash, well worthy of the Category 4 that my scale would give it.
In the UK in the early 1990’s, there was a Real Estate crash which saw something like 30% of all homeowners in the South-East (which includes London, and is the region with the highest prices and wages) in negative equity. Yet the nominal median fell by less than 20% from peak to trough (which took 4 or 5 years).
Someone suggested a haiku topic thread. One posted this:
‘The house sits vacant
A sea of for sale signs
Is that my Hummer driving by?’
How about a broader poetry topic so as not to leave out those who are more skilled at limericks, sonnets and poetic epigrams?
There once was lady who tried to house flip
In 2005 purchased LV houses at a fast clip
Then came such a soft landing
That she was left standing
On a catwalk twirling tassels during a strip
Example is not a Haiku. Haiku’s are syllabically 5-7-5.
E.g.
‘The house sits vacant
In a sea of for sale signs
A Hummer drives by’
Hot news (Wash Times, weekly “Charting the Markets” today):
‘Christine Todd, chief executive officer of the Northern
Virginia Association of Realtors, thinks the worst is already
behind us. “It was July of 2006,” says Mrs. Todd.’
Oh thank God! The worst is over. We’re saved!
But then another quote:
‘”Home prices have come down, but have values really
come down?” asks George W. Lyons, vice president of
the Prince William County Association of Realtors. “Or,
did we have such a shortage of inventory last year that
buyers were paying more than the homes were worth?
A $300,000 house is still a $300,000 house, in my opinion,
even if someone paid too much for it a year ago.” ‘
What?!? What kind of rhetorical question is that: “Have values really come down?” What kind of mealy-mouthed rubbish talk is this??
It is called CYA mealy-mouthed rubbish talk.
Remember the scene in “Jaws” where the police chief tells the mayor to go into the water with his kids to show the rest of the people that it’s safe to swim?
I’d tell this clown to step up and pay today’s asking price for something or shaddup.
Housing as % of gdp
20% according to fannie may ad
6% according to bulls
10% of 05 employment
35% of employment increasr from 2001
? where’s the truth
Please, Ben…. can we have a topic on Casey??? http://iamfacingforeclosure.com
Not again, please. Casey’s either heading for a trial (if he’s real) or for a web award (if it was a performance).
I’ve often wondered why SD Realtors (TM) used itsy-bitsy-teensy-weensy Open House signs to notify drive-buy looky-loos about where the weekend’s free food could be found, and I finally have the answer:
THE SIGNS ARE ILLEGAL!
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061013/news_1mi13signs.html
SoCal housing (including The OC) is headed into a recession — it’s in the bag. Don’t miss the rather ominous table at the bottom of the article.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061013/news_1b13fedecon.html
For perspective on where we are and where we might be heading, consider these rather ominous statistics, and that YOY price declines have just begun to show up in the data:
“Total sales were 31,740, down 28.6 percent from September 2005 and the lowest for any September since 1997. But the figure was still close to the record 34,653 in 1988, the first year DataQuick began its reports, and far from the record low of 12,838 at the depths of the recession in 1992.
San Diego’s sales, as reported yesterday, totaled 3,207, down 35 percent, the biggest year-over-year decline among the six counties. However, Orange County was just behind with a 34.6 percent drop to 2,664.”
“Now is when things get interesting,” DataQuick President Marshall Prentice said in a statement. “The vast majority of home buyers have done very well for themselves the past few years. As things level off, though, we should be able to quantify how many buyers overpaid during the frenzy, and by how much.”
Translation:
“Now is when things get interesting,” DataQuick President Marshall Prentice said in a statement. “As the tide goes out we will see who is swimming naked.”
” I sure hope the blonde RE woman with the big jumblies is swimming out there.”
There she is, high, dry, and nakee on the Blacks Beach sand…
http://www.worldwidenudismnaturism.com/pages/beachguides/blacks/blacks.htm
Why does FNM get such great plunge protection when other bubble stocks are allowed to tank? Do they self-protect? Does it help that they don’t have to ever post financial statements?
http://tinyurl.com/fzeuw
How many hours ago did Toll Bros get that analyst’s upgrade?
http://tinyurl.com/8cqwt
I would love to see a FNM discussion here.
Wouldn’t it be terrific if an FNM insider would surreptitiously get on board and shed some light on what the heck is going on with that organization? The mystery of it all is killing me.
TxChick — What’s up with SBUX? Under accumulation or something? Hasn’t anyone mentioned to the Wall Street pros that when the home equity ATM really shuts down, nobody will be buying much caffeinated sugar water at $3 a fix anymore?
I am curious if they are one of your short targets, if you are willing to divulge such confidential info…
http://tinyurl.com/y62ojc
Selling caffeinated sugar water at $3 a fix has worked for Coca-Cola for many decades now . . .
i’d like to see a regular weekend post about where open houses with food and entertainment are. i heard one on the radio today here in SoCal for some Del Webb property where they’re going to have a chili cookoff and BEER! Maybe I’ll go get some cataract sunglasses and a cane and go get bombed.
Prospective buyers to builders: “Take your fancy incentives and shove them. All I want is an affordable, livable home to live in.”
————————————————————————————
WEEKEND EDITION
Home builders up ante to lure buyers
Incentives, discounts are pervasive as market slows and inventories climb
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:16 PM ET Oct 13, 2006
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Large home builders are dangling out more incentives to reluctant buyers as the roof caves in on the U.S. housing market. To entice customers, companies are serving up deals that include a free pool, a fancy kitchen or even a new car. But real-estate brokers say all buyers want is a cheaper house.
http://tinyurl.com/ylv2fq