‘It’s Now Every Greater-Fool For Himself’
Desk clearing time for this blogger. “With some 30,000 to 40,000 hotel rooms planned for the Strip by 2010, Las Vegas is about to undergo its biggest growth spurt in history. That doesn’t include the more than 50,000 condominium units planned across the Las Vegas Valley, though many doubt whether most of those projects will actually be built.”
“‘Anything less than a high end condo project will not get built in our opinion,’ Dick Rizzo said. ‘There’s no market for it, there’s no capacity to build it and the numbers don’t work.’ As for the demand side of the equation, experts are debating whether there’s enough luxury buyers who can afford these $1,000 per square foot units. Paying $800,000 to $1 million for an 800-square-foot suite is a lot of money outside of New York or San Francisco. Those who may have the money may not want a condo with a kitchenette, anyway.”
“Marc Falcone reported a ‘dramatic slowdown in residential sales,’ from 4,000 to 5,000 units per month during the peak of the condo frenzy to about 400 to 500 units per month.”
One big story of the week was the mortgage layoffs. “A major transition is underway in the U.S. mortgage lending industry, with consolidations and lay-offs at the forefront as companies try to deal with waning demand for home loans. This shift is expected to pick up steam in 2006 if the housing market, as widely expected, cools off from its record-breaking five-year run.”
“‘There are some very important signals emerging in that we have seen some pretty good companies go on the block for sale or have been sold recently, which is a clear sign that consolidation is seriously underway,’ said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the MBA.”
“Even the larger firms are poised for a downturn. Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, recently announced it plans lay-offs for sometime this year, partly in response to lower profits on sales of mortgages.”
“According to Duncan, lenders have been holding ’slowdown’ meetings with their employees, a move he said historically coincides with a turn in employment.”
Inman News, “So, what’s the chance that housing will slow enough to bring true the PIMCO prediction, and knock interest rates back down? A few early signs are right on slowdown track: new-construction condos are the traditional favorite of speculators, and it’s now every greater-fool for himself on both coasts. Inventory-to-sales ratios are deteriorating in most of the used-to-be-hot markets.”
“Psychological shock is unfolding in slow motion: since the rollout of ARMs in 1980 there has never been a sustained rise in ARM rates. PIMCO’s slowdown case is built on the simultaneous impact of flattening home prices, no new equity to extract, rising house payments, and still-high energy costs.”
Here’s a snippet from the report on Fannie Mae. “Mr. Rudman said his team had not uncovered evidence that Mr. Raines deliberately embarked on a course of violating the accounting rules to win larger compensation, although the report found that Mr. Raines had met with Ms. Spencer and Mr. Howard in early 1999 to discuss the plan of deferring $200 million in expenses.”
“‘For 1998, I’m reasonably confident there’s enough in the ‘non-recurring earnings piggy bank’ to get us to $3.21,’ Mr. Small wrote. ‘While that number should satisfy investors, you should be aware that last year the A.I.P. paid out just short of the maximum. This year, the maximum is $3.23, so at $3.21, the bonus pool will be noticeably lower than in 1997, a fact which will, of course, be rapidly observed by officers and directors come January.’”
“The Houston Association of Realtors revealed to HoustonRealNews today that the strength of the Houston market may be directly attributable to the increase in real estate investor activity. The number of available homes (active listings) at the end of January was 40,814 properties, which was a decrease of 1.3 percent versus last January. The figure was an increase of approximately 900 properties from last month though. Total property sales for the month totaled 4,584.”
From the Business Journal. “It seems that the real estate buying frenzy in the Central Valley and in other parts of the state is beginning to slow down. The long lines of buyers at new housing subdivisions aren’t that long. In fact, some developers are offering buyers special incentives.”
“In California as a whole, a total of 38,300 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month according to DataQuick. That’s down 27.5 percent from December and down 9.5 percent from January 2005. The housing trend in the Bay Area where median house prices are some of the highest in the state, could be a sign of what’s to come for the rest of California. Last month DataQuick reported that sales dropped in the Bay Area to their lowest level in five years, where sales were down 20 percent this January compared to January 2005.”
“‘We won’t know for another couple of months if this is a lull in the market or part of a longer-term downturn. The March numbers will tell us much more about what’s going on,’ Marshall Prentice said.”
Another great week. My thanks to all of you that supported this site with donations and/or by clicking ads. Any appraisers that want to contribute to the story I’m putting together on fraud, please send me an email. Names will be held in the strictest confidence. Please check back this weekend for news, market observations and your topics.
I just have to remind everyone the MBA Douglas Duncan is a bubble sitter himself.
He sold his house to take some money off the table and is now renting. Check Ben’s archives if they are available!
He’s also a good and honest man to know. He also refused to buy in the late bubbly 80’s and bought a foreclosure in the early 90’s here in Northern VA.
No bash intended on Mr. Duncan. I will credit him with being honest.
In California as a whole, a total of 38,300 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month according to DataQuick. That’s down 27.5 percent from December and down 9.5 percent from January 2005. The housing trend in the Bay Area where median house prices are some of the highest in the state, could be a sign of what’s to come for the rest of California. Last month DataQuick reported that sales dropped in the Bay Area to their lowest level in five years, where sales were down 20 percent this January compared to January 2005.”
Ahhhh…MY playground. Very telling information.
BayQT~
Since the Fed controls short term rates and the bond market controls the long term rates. The Fed lowering rates may not help mortgage rates that much this time. If foreign bond buyers go cold and demand more risk premium going forward, mortgage rates may well go up. There’s already evidence that foreign governments are starting to diversify out of US debt. A weakening US economy may encourage more diversification.
JMO
“Since the Fed controls short term rates and the bond market controls the long term rates.”
I don’t believe this is true any more. The yield curve is just too consistently flat to be explained by market behavior alone. Bernanke said that he would intervene in the bond market as needed, and I suspect he will (is?).
Mr. Stucco,
If Ben B Heli MIT is intervening now (today, in the present), how is he doing it?
Just pure curiosity.
Apologies…
Perhaps, “Dr. Stucco….”?
Carry on…
I read somewhere that in a worst case scenario the Fed may look into buying homes from distressed sellers to keep a collapse from happening, but only because oil prices would be too high to justify the helicopter flights
Another tool the Fed could use is to ask Congress to resuscitate the old Regulation X, part of the Defense Production Act of 1950. This regulation let the Fed set minimum down payments and maximum mortgage-repayment periods for residential properties. The Fed gave up the authority a few years later. Requiring 20% down on properties and taking away the funny money loans would sober up the RE market in a hurry.
Why would they do such a thing??
They dont want to crash the market. If they could keep it up they would.
Why did the Fed take down tech stocks? Because the could and they didn’t want another Japan on their hands.
Getstucco - Market behavior alone is perfectly plausible. The Fed is trying to push up rates modestly, using its most benign weapon - overnight rates. They have two more weapons- “open market action,” in which they can buy or sell long bonds to influence rates. That is very expensive (duh) and unlikely to have much impact anyway. They also have a nuclear weapon that is almost never discussed - banking reserve requirements. They can effectively dictate how much money banks are allowed to lend, relative to their “assets,” or deposits. Reserve requirements are effectively at zero right now - if the Chairman (Mao?) gets really pissed he can put an end to the lending party in, like, three hours. That, of course, would not result in the “soft landing” everyone is fantasizing about.
The Fed targets the Fed Funds rate using open market actions. It also sets the discount rate at which banks can borrow from the Fed as well as reserve requirements as you say. It is hard to say that open market action is “expensive”. The Fed effectively prints new dollars to buy bonds or destroys old ones when it sells bonds. The change in the money supply drives the interest rate.
The Fed could purchase MBS directly. I’m thinking that would lower interest rates a bit.
I just got these two books by Bernanke last week. They will be arriving soon and I’ll be reading them carefully.
Of course Greenspan used to support the gold standard so I’m on a very strict heavy salt-diet at this point.
Hard Rock Hotel cancelled it’s 1 billion condo project yesterday, as reported in today’s LV Review Journal, Business Section.
Do you have a link for this?
Found it…thanx anyway
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Feb-24-Fri-2006/business/6049516.html
Interesting that the *bungalows* that they were going to sell were 1800 to 3600 sf, starting at $2.5Million.
BayQT~
Bungled-low?
“its project”, possessive. Read Eats Shoots and Leaves. Treat English like a lady and she’ll love you back.
OT - Yay! I’m a 100% Stickler!
“It’s” rude to correct people. I”m just a stickler.
From the Inman Article:
There is no escape hatch for these borrowers except a refinance to fixed-rates higher than their old ARM. Psychological shock is unfolding in slow motion: since the rollout of ARMs in 1980 there has never been a sustained rise in ARM rates. PIMCO’s slowdown case is built on the simultaneous impact of flattening home prices, no new equity to extract, rising house payments, and still-high energy costs.
__________________________________________
This is also know as the Perfect Storm. Ask George Clooney how it ended!
“This is also know as the Perfect Storm. Ask George Clooney how it ended!”
George Clooney is a outspoken hypocrite who likes to cast guns in a criminal genre for personal financial gain as an actor, and then he has the gall to attack law abiding gun owners, hunters, and the NRA. F*ck him and his films!
Your a moron! This was simply a reference to a movie he made! You are obviously some Right-wing Cheney Loving member of the American Sheeple Society!
Cheney would make a cool grandpa… leave papa alone… now Bushki, thats a bumbling idiot… why doesn’t he just sell the Department of Homland Insecurity to Pakistan!!??!!
Hey c&c, you’re pretty quick with the ad hominem attack; I didn’t single *you* out.
Are you having a bad day or what? Geesh.
Thats right. Get some perspective. Dont let Karl Rove stroke your resentments so that his master can pick your pocket.
I hate your side!
You aren’t on my side so you’re dumb and mean!
Nah, just turn off your brain and don’t think critically.
Come on, now, for the love of Pete. It’s “You’re a moron.” Y.O.U.R. spells “your.” Getting tired of this people. If YOU’RE trying to make a point in writing, IT’S much better to do it using correct English - typographical errors are AN EXCEPTION, of course (notice IT’S not “a acception” - nor is it “its”). Jesus, Mary, ‘n Joseph. Everyone understands oversights (typos that haven’t been corrected), but the outright spelling/grammatical errors just make one look uneducated. Hard to get YOUR point across when nobody can take you seriously, wouldn’t you agree?
Stinks to get away from the point of the blog, but I have a hard time giving any serious thought to writings at high school sophomore level - and I presume there aren’t any high school sophomores here writing about real estate.
Free advice (not “advise”) - don’t hate the messenger.
Make sure you check all your posts for accuracy. I’ll be watching.
Now this exchange is what I call a perfect storm.
Hey there, no trolling please.
I can’t believe how easily some people loose [sic] there [sic] temper. Come on, people, lighten up.
If you folks aren’t nice to me than [sic] I’m going to use the caps lock rather then [sic] go away!
San Diego County inventory according to ziprealty:
1/23 15,568
2/24 17,126
1/2 13,916
Inventory increase so far in 2006 = 23%
Annualized rate of increase so far in 2006=
[(17,126/13,916)^(365/54)-1] X 100% = 307%
Listings on ziprealty w/price reduced = 4942
Percent of current ziprealty listings w/price reduced = 29%
San Diego - Today alone had clients losing 5 houses/condos b/c can’t afford, rent doesn’t meet mtg. pymnts, 80/20 loans, etc. That makes about 14 in the last 3 weeks. This thing may unwind in 5 months or so as opposed to 5 years. Timing will be everything. Civil war in Iraq, attack on oil production further boosting price, maybe nothing will stimulate a panic sell-off. As I’ve heard it said, we’ll see the timing in the rear view mirror.
That’s incredible volume,Im sure your not the only bklawyer in SD imagine if 10% of all bklawyers were getting that kind of volume in SD shheesshh
Are there still only two judges there in San Diego? When I was there, it was the lonliest bankruptcy court I’ve ever seen. You had the Tony Gwynn case and not much else.
Alright, Stucco, here’s my obligatory “You can’t count from the 1st week of January because there was a huge dropoff and huge jump right around January 1st due to expiring listings.”
Having said that, I believe we will see the 19K record broken around the end of April, and the 1:140 listing:resident ratio record busted in July.
Current rate of increase is averaging about 20-60/day (having slowed a little from a few weeks ago), with no clear trend as to whether there are more condos or SFH coming onto the market.
Thanks for all of your contributions, ocrenter.
Actually goose_egg, I agree with you, but for a different reason. I think inventory spikes will be staved off because of re agent intervention. They will convince people to keep inventory off the market until prices rebound. That will work for a while. My guess is the big flop comes in the fall.
I say: “San Diego condos for everyone!”
Quit it man, I’ve had a couple and I’m not afraid to get violent!
Ok, Ok we’ve heard that one many times before.
Can you add something more substantial?
Did you juke those numbers to make the increase mo/mo slightly more than 10% ??? hehehehehehehe
“Hard Rock Hotel cancelled it’s 1 billion condo project yesterday, as reported in today’s LV Review Journal, Business Section.”
The San Diego Hard Rock Hotel is still trying to get going, I think construction hasn’t started? I signed up online for information just for fun and they have been leaving me messages about how exciting it is. LOL.
http://tinyurl.com/86dvy
Link to a Time article from a couple of days ago. One of the quotes in the article:
This genius is saying that among a few others, that the Hard Rock is playing a winning hand. Well, if the cancellation news is correct, add this hack’s name to the growing list of RE cheerleaders with no clue to what’s going on around them.
The US housing market: Dead Man Walking.
What about those other still-conundrum-ridden long-term asset markets (stocks and bonds)?
I agree, there will be alot of RE zombies out there this year.
Stucco,
Consider investments that thrive during economic slow downs and a weakening dollar.
Ooooohhh - I almost forgot - Doug Duncan, quoted in Ben’s post, is the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Doug and his lovely, middle-aged, bride, SOLD THEIR HOUSE in tony McLean, Virginia, last spring, for a small fortune, and, get this, “decided to rent for a while.” !!!!
Sorry if I’ve posted that little tidbit before, it is the equivalent of a VERY fat lady, singing, in my humble opinion!
Where’s Lou Minatti? Do I have to ridicule these Houston “investors” all by myself?
Where to start? Oh, my aching head.
(raises hand)
The rotten evil bastards. They will get burned:
http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2006/01/california-real-estate-investing-in.html
I am sticking with my timeline.
Seriously though, I see the pumpers in Craig’s List a few times a day. It’s always some hotshot who claims to have gotten rich off of fat returns in places like Austin. One genious claims to have made 80% in 5 years. Then when you show them stuff like this they clam up, only to spam the same crap the next day:
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/CO-NM-TX-UT.html
It’s no skin off my back if these morons want to lose their shirts. I’ve been here 10 years now and have the house almost paid off. I don’t plan on going anywhere for a long time. I’d like to see land prices out west (somewhere around La Grange, which is nice country) take a dump so I can buy a 20 acres or so and retire out there.
Be sure and look at the March issue of D Mag (or D Rag). Ive sent it to Ben, hopefully he’ll put up a spot on it. Be prepared to heave.
They start the article in D Magazine by saying don’t worry there is no bubble in Dallas, and then go on to say that everything south of LBJ Freeway has gone up considerably. They then give a couple of examples of 50% appreciation, which is light estimate for what really happened in the areas they discuss. More RE cheerleading BS.
Karl: I am seriously considering putting the house I’m renting under contract. I can buy it for literally 22K more than the guy paid for it in 1987. I would never have done this but if people really read this garbage and come pouring in here, I can resell this thing for a profit. It’s 2400 square feet on an acre lot. The only reason it’s so low is because this area is kind of overlooked by the hot money crowd. It’s quite nice though with about 30 huge trees on the lot. I’d have to renovate it some (no granite countertops - that’s so blue collar now!) but I’m seriously considering it.
If you can buy the place right, and are looking at the big picture rationally, then I still think RE can be a good investment. However, even with this D Magazine article, I just don’t see folks streaming into Dallas. The Mercantile deal downtown is getting ready to fizzle out and it will cost the city $20-30 million to unwind it. I don’t see bright signs for the future of the economy - locally or nationally. That being said, if the price is right, and in-line with replacement costs, etc., why not.
Of course, I don’t need to tell you these things, since you are a much more seasoned invester than me.
As you know, D Magazine is mostly an advertising rag. I’ve got a whole bunch of friends that were named the best attorneys under 40, who can barely practice law. And the best doctors edition is a hoot, too.
I finally read the part of the article that discussed the condo craze. In one sentence, they quoted a realtor who said the underlying fundamentals are there for big sales to empty nesters and the market would barely slow down. In the next sentence they wrote about a condo conversion of a high-end new highrise in Turtle Creek that is going back to apartments because of the slowdown. The authors contradict themselves constantly and yet, act like Dallas is “Different.” It’s the same garbage we’ve seen here for the last year and have been thinking for years, guess what morons, it’s not different here - if anything, it’s worse.
(raises hand)
The death watch continues.
We will be playing the degüello in less than 2 months.
(I replied previously and my message vanished. I wonder what happened? Watch, as soon as I add this my older message will reappear.)
Dammit! Sorry.
$5.00 fine
A few points that possibly have already been addressed. In a seller’s market you can buy before selling your existing house… in a buyer’s market this is lethal. — In a buyer’s market the latter can lead to a series of cascading non closings. I see this starting to happen — I suggest you ignore sales before closings in a buyer’s market . In the mid 80s my wife was the marketing manager for a motel chain on the operative side (ei. get the people into the rooms) — the biggest suckers on the investor side were doctors and dentists since they felt they deserved ‘big’ bucks without ever doing ‘due’ diligence… the next group were the accountants — they constantly dealt with big bucks and ‘knew’ their brilliance in relation to some of their clients so were really big suckers for any get rich scheme.
I wish I had a rebuttal, but that is so true. Thanks for the laugh!
I’m not a doctor, dentist, or CPA therefore I must truly deserve to be rich.
What a relief!
You want to see some real pigeons? Lawyers who do corporate and M&A work. They see their clients and IBs making zillions of dollars in IPOs and placements, so some of them go and try to do it themselves. I’ve seen some spectacular busts from that misguided thinking
Help! I have a friend that is seriously looking at putting an offer in on an 8-unit apartment building in the Alamitos Beach are of Long Beach. I have tried to convince them otherwise by pointing them to Ziprealty so they can see how many apartment listings (5+ units) are on and coming on the market.
What I can’t get access to is current and monthly historical data on apartments units are moving “out” of the market into pending and then closed status. I don’t have access to the MLS for Long Beach, CA so I can’t get this data together, plot it on some excel graphs, and show it to my friend and say:
see….there are a lot more apartment properties like the one you are looking at coming on the market every X weeks than there are coming off the market. See the trend line on this over the last Y months. Guess what that means? Investors are trying to bail out and you don’t want to be the last “greater fool”.
Any help getting these numbers would be much appreciated
BTW, I told a customer service person at Ziprealty they should add this capability by allowing advanced searches against the database of pending/sold properties verus just active properties. How cool would that be! Amost like having access to the full MLS at that point without having to be a realtor. It would put zillow to shame. If you agree, let Ziprealty know. They said they are always trying to improve things.
Get a realtor license, all you need is a weekend class and then you’ll be able to access MLS on your own
I don’t want to get a realtors license for two reasons: 1) On principle; and 2) because that can open you up to liability as a real estate investor. If you have one though, I will be very happy to use your Username and Password
Your friend would be better served to hold off a little bit on that purchase. secondly your trying to dip into the wrong well for information on 5+ units. The MLS is notoriously horrible for info on commercial property you’d do better by sticking your finger in the air and wishing on a star. Most commercial realtors don’t use the MLS. Most of the transactions are done by brokers representing both the buyer and the seller a large portion of the time. Tell your friend to use this rule of thumb if all his expenses are paid and he gets a 10% R.O.I. on a 25% down payment then it’s a respectable deal. If he has to make a down payment of 35 to 50% to make it cash flow nevermind the R.O.I. mentioned earlier then he is the bigger fool.
Thanks for your input. I agree in a lot of cases the MLS is bad. For Long Beach it seems to cover a lot of the listings for apt. buildings that are less 20 or so units. Loopnet has others and their is a bit of overlap. Again, the thing I can’t see are the stats on what’s coming off the market.
I agree with your measure on down payment %/ROI/greater fool measure. Problem is my friend doesn’t want to look at things from a normal investor view…. go figure!
Cap rates in LA area seem to be around 4%…correct me if I’m wrong, but cap rate is just the return you would get if you bought for cash, isn’t it? So 100% down is getting you a 4% return…if you are to believe the sellers are advertising correct cap rates (hah!) Not a great return in my book.
Its an excellent return to feed foreclosures to the bank for the next few years. But most of the people buying 5% or less returns are green in the game. Unless it’s in a rent controlled area and the pockets are deep enough to go to war with the tenants for the next few yrs to get the GI up
Read about L.A. housing still nation’s least affordable.
“Nationally, just 41 percent of the homes sold were affordable to families earning the median income, a record low.”
Read about Beach home loses beach.
“The $680,000 beachfront home they purchased last spring on the Pacific Coast is no longer next to the beach: The water in front of their home is being filled in, and the new land that’s being created will be developed.”
Love it. Nice to know that even attorneys get the shaft sometimes. Those Mexicans know how to get even with us Gringos. Beware.
Gringos isn’t the slur anymore. Gabacho.
I definitely agree with your premise and the article. I was in Nayarit, Mexico and noticed the clueless boomers sinking $500K plus into coastal property. They were building a resort and didn’t even speak Espanol.
The locals will slowly bleed them dry.
J.N.(Joanne, I think) Sbranti is a pretty diligent reporter; I’ve been interviewed by her. I am wondering why her story from yesterday didn’t get a little more attention. I would think a 10% drop in median sales price in one California county (Tuolumne) should be national news.
As for this particular article on Mexican real estate, Mr. Plastic Surgeon has certainly gotten what he deserved: “The developer is ignoring all the laws, which we’ve learned is kind of how they do things in Mexico. … They want to put the armpit of the marina in front of the gringos’ homes.” — And how they do things once they reach the USA, as well, which he would have known if he read the Modesto Bee or looked out his window. Of course, to be somewhat fair, it is sometimes called the ‘Mexican Bee’ because of the glass-half-full attitude they take. And maybe now he understands what has been said for quite some time: The Mexican government does not like gringos, or the USA.
The U.S. State Department, in fact, warns Americans to “exercise extreme caution before entering into any form of commitment to invest in (Mexican) property.”
The State Department’s Web site warns: “Foreigners who purchase property in Mexico may find that property disputes with Mexican citizens may not be treated evenhandedly by Mexican criminal justice authorities or in the courts.” … [Doc's] advice to those considering buying property abroad: “Don’t invest in any country that has a record of corruption.” Thanks for the tip.
For those who didn’t see it, here is the link to yesterday’s story indicating 10% drop in median price in one month.
http://www.modbee.com/local/story/11838668p-12553268c.html
And like Bateman, Endsley isn’t worried about a one-month drop in housing prices.
“The market is coming back to normal,” said Endsley, predicting that home prices will appreciate 5 percent to 8 percent in 2006. “We’re back in balance. A buyer can make a reasonable choice and a seller can make a reasonable amount on the sale.”
Good luck guys! You’ll need it!!
Read about Consumer Wallets Had a Rough Start This Millennium.
“Median incomes rose just 1.6 percent after inflation during the 2001-04 period, according to data released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Board. The median family net worth, a measure of wealth that represents the sum of all assets minus liabilities, rose a similarly small 1.5 percent in that period.”
Read about Analyst Questions Gov.’s Budget.
“A significant dip in real estate prices or a sharp rise in the cost of oil or natural gas, she said, could send the state’s finances into freefall once again.”
Ah oh
Read about Slower real estate market brings incentives.
“We won’t know for another couple of months if this is a lull in the market or part of a longer-term downturn. It’s always difficult to project from trends we see in January and February. The March numbers will tell us much more about what’s going on,” Prentice said.”
Read about First-timers face tough, fast homes market
Already burdened with navigating the complex world of home buying, first timers now face multiple bids, shrinking supply and shorter decision-making time..
“Several times, he and his real estate agent noticed a property on the market and planned to see it the next day, only to discover it was already under contract. He bid on one house, but he lost out to another bidder.”
Now Austin? Damn!!!!
I new the last of the greater fools would be found or end up in Texas.
Don’t worry about it. A year from now that buyer will be trying to sell without losing what’s left of his ass.
Read about Finally, The Truth…
“Real Access to Motivated Seller Deals with no cold calling, no finding property, no negotiations, and no due diligence!”.
This bs reminds me of those diet pills… buy these and lose pounds tomorrow. Hurry, offer expires soon!!!
It’s a dog eat dog world out there!!!
I signed right up for that one
Excellent discussion on quinhouse.blogspot.com
Anyone seen craigslist.com las vegas properties for sale?
Talk about give aways, this is it (and seems like just the beginning)
Not me, but I am guessing “$20,000 in free upgrades, including granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances and a free $5000 Best Buy gift card.”
Am I way off?
Me thinks a Cheap Limo For Sale this Summer…
http://www.azcentral.com/business/columns/articles/0225buzz-bizbuzz25.html
Real estate agent takes clients for a ride
Feb. 25, 2006 12:00 AM
Valley real estate agent Kathy Camamo’s clients aren’t celebrities. She just treats them that way, squiring them around town in a chauffeured limousine.
The agent with Phoenician Properties Realty bought a used Lincoln stretch limo late last year and hired two part-time drivers, which she said has turned out to be a cost-effective move.
The limo has made life easier both for her and her clients, and it also makes her stand out in the sea of real estate agents competing for business in a slowing housing market.
“Everyone I’ve taken out in it just loves it,” Camamo said.
She said the idea came to her last year when she was showing homes to a couple with a young child. The husband was in the front seat of her Acura and the wife was in the back with the child in a car seat. They were bombarding her with questions, the kid was fidgety and the traffic was horrible.
“I couldn’t concentrate on what they were asking me,” Camamo said. “That’s when it hit me that I needed someone to drive me.”
Now, she can take her clients to several houses, answer any questions and even work on her laptop in the limo. “It’s a relaxing environment,” she said.
When she is holding an open house, Camamo lets the owners take the limo out for a few hours. She even offers her regular clients the car for special occasions. She already has loaned it out for an anniversary and a birthday, and twice on Valentine’s Day.
Here’s a sobering thought for all those RE bulls who think the next month and a half will save them…
If prices are being lowered now, even 10%…
…and the ‘Spring’ is truly going to save everyone…
…why aren’t the flippers BUYING properties NOW, since the next 90 days will ‘inevitably’ show that prices only go UP?
Maybe it’s because flipper, speculators, investors- whatever you want to call them-
-maybe they know what’s about to happen.
How do they know that?
They all talk to each other, that’s how.
In September, we will hear more statements like we are hearing now.
“We didn’t know how much of the mania was caused by flipping. We thought it only accounted for 10% of the market. Now we know it was more like 50%.”
50% decrease in flipping = 50% decrease in prices of homes.
It’s just a matter of time, and for those of us who have been watching this nonsense unfold…
…patience.
The smart-money flippers got out last Spring doing very well, thank you. They are on to bigger and better things.
Now we’re left with the greedy dumb-money flippers who either bought last year or had bought earlier and stayed on hoping for those last few bucks of profit. These guys are tapped, with no appreciation coming to leverage for the next buy. These morons will be our summertime panic sellers.
p.s.
Estimated amount of time before Real Estate becomes a punchline on The Tonight Show, Late Show and Jimmy Kimmel Live…
T Minus 180 days.
(From The Tonight Show, September 2006:)
“But you have to remember, Ladies and Gentlemen, there was a time when Donald Trump was a star. Does anyone remember that? Yeah, that was a long, long time ago, wasn’t it? Way back when we all thought our houses were really worth $900,000- right?”
(audience laughs uncontrollably)
“Does anyone remember that? Right? Long, long time ago, that was.”
(close shot of audience member, smiling)
(graphic beneath her picture…)
‘I used to drive a Mercedes! Now I LOVE MY YUGO!’
I am not the owner of the blog at:
http://thereisnohousingbubble.blogspot.com/
but whoever it is put up a couple more funny ass postings!
I had to laugh when I saw this one:
Become the master of your domain. Become one of the highly trained real estate professionals that are profiting mightily from this new paradigm. Like the previous example let’s look at 2 different people. Both are recent high school graduates. One decided to attend an Ivy League school for 4 years to get a degree in one of those outdated majors like engineering or one of the sciences. After graduation they attend grad school for 5 years and get their Ph.D. And now after 9 years of hard, menial, drudgery, what do they get as their reward? A job paying $50-60,000, if they are lucky. By the time this “genius” pays off their student loans they’ll be 40 years old. 22 years of eating ramen and riding your bike to work might make some drugged out hippy happy but for us real Americans we want $$$. Now let’s look at his friend. He decides college is for suckers. He works as a mortgage broker and part time real estate agent. He earns $100-200K a year. By the time Harvard boy has graduated our wise mortgage broker will have a BMW, 2 houses, and a sail boat. And he did all this without wasting his time with books or filling his brain with useless knowledge. He is a producer of wealth while the self-absorbed academic is a parasite on society. What would you rather be, a producer or a parasite?
Yeah, I really like the over the top sarcasm that can almost pass for serious thought by RE gurus and permabulls.
If you look at history there has never been any period of time where home prices declined. Never. Even if you go back to Ugh selling the first cave to Ooog for 3 rocks and a wooden club, I guarantee you Ooog made money. No matter when, where, or how you look at it, home prices always go up in the long term. Sure, you might find some isolated instances where home prices declined for a short period of time but even after that aberration prices returned to their normal higher trend. LMAO
I always like to consider Pompeii. They’ve been in quite a slump for awhile now. But of course they will rebound.
San Diego “investors” discuss buying in Texas:
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=940782
Alright Auction Heaven in 2007.
Now I am pissed. Check out this morning’s OC Register business section. After they buried the falling median price, just 2 weeks later the rush to the presses with a mid-month update showing the median price rising.
I tried to be resigned to the conflict of interest in having to sing the song of whose bread they eat but they are leading sheeple to slaughter.
I guess I could embrace the fact that slaughter is what domesticated animals are raised for but it is wrong and Jeff Collins and Lansner should be losing some sleep over this.
Here is the link:
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1017323.php
I just about spit my coffee out this am when I saw that on the front page. We have to accept that the OC Register is an RE Ho. We may pay em to read it, but their bread is buttered by RE in this arena. If we are looking for honest journalism here I think the closest thing we will see was Lasner’s recent article.
As far as having deep concern for the sheeple that this will draw into slaughter the best I can do is inform and warn as broadly as I can. But as I have said before there are still folks out there who are clueless and will buy. Heck there are folks out there who have a clue and will buy. But, IMHO, that will only drag it out, but not change the fact that this will end badly for those who have bought at the high end with voodoo loans.
You’re up kind of early, aren’t you? Beat me to the punch!
Don’t stress, it’s only the new home prices that caused the median to go up. Looks like existing homes are about the same, maybe even down a little.
Yeah, I am up early, not much of a party animal.
I did read their dumb morning eye blog.
The blogger was too dense to see the sarcasm of http://thereisnohousingbubble.blogspot.com/
He thought it was an anti-bubble site. That really shows the level of investigation into what the OC Register publishes.
The blog with no readership and very few comments has taken to providing commentary on bubble blogs to attract readers and posters. For that reason I boycott sending eyeballs to their blog.
Yeah, I think their “Morning Eye Blog” is hurtin’. The other day they had like 2 comments..LOL. Sometimes they have some news article I like to read and post here though.
In all, 2,730 homes sold during the period ending on Feb. 15, compared to 2,594 sold in all of January.
Guess that means that someone found 2,730 greater fools.
Good luck to those folks.
They heard the price dropped a bit, and went and bought.
Dummies.
I think we call that a dead cat bounce, don’t we?