‘Florida Is Just Paying For Its Sins’
The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “Following slowing sales and falling prices in cities across the country, monthly home sales in the Charlotte area were down in September, the first drop in more than three years.”
“Veteran real estate agents say they’ll wait to see whether the September drop is a monthly blip or signals a deeper decline. Either way, they agree that buyers and sellers must adapt to new market demands. Sales of the most expensive homes have been especially hard hit.”
“Agents say slower sales in other cities have stalled business in Charlotte. Their clients can’t buy here, they say, until they sell homes in the cities they’re relocating from. Dot Munson said she had a stack of files on her desk representing families that can’t sell homes in Florida, California or the Northeast.”
“‘That’s the biggest downturn in our business right now,’ she said.”
“Slowdowns elsewhere affect sales here in other ways. Some buyers want to offer dramatically less than the asking price in Charlotte, Munson said, because they’ve seen prices fall where they’re moving from. A buyer who sold for 20 percent less than he thought his house was worth might offer 20 percent less than the asking price for a house in Charlotte.”
“Sellers also have to be realistic, say Munson and other experienced agents. They have to price homes fairly, and offer incentives such as decorating allowances and help with closing costs.”
“(Broker) Dan Cottingham of Cottingham-Chalk said business has been slowing gradually for a year or more in some segments of the market, especially the upper end. He said most sellers have adjusted to the slowdown by negotiating more willingly. ‘Price is king …,’ he said, ‘but we’re seeing sellers offering decorating allowances that they wouldn’t have a year ago.’”
“‘This (slowdown) doesn’t mean that sellers are going to give their homes away, but there are more for buyers to choose from,’ said (realtor) Donna Anderson.”
“As the market slows, more sellers entice buyers by offering to help with closing costs. Agents say the tactic is used at all price ranges, but especially below about $300,000. Offering help with closing costs helps sellers of existing homes compete with new-home builders, who often offer such incentives as upgraded appliances.”
“Agent Bill Balatow said his business has ‘flattened’ a bit, especially for homes costing $1 million-plus. Four of 11 pending sales he’s working on include seller assistance with closing costs. Also pending: Three sales that have to wait until clients sell homes back in Florida.”
The Daily Record from Florida. “Randy Shelton says there is one major misconception about the first condo tower built on the Southbank — The Strand is not, and was never sold as, an apartment building. In fact, there hasn’t been a sale yet.”
“Buyers will also benefit from the decision to go with condos. Because the project started more than 18 months ago, construction prices for the Strand were locked in at a time when construction costs were lower. ‘Our prices reflect two year old construction prices,’ said Shelton.”
“Shelton said the Jacksonville market has been wonderful, relatively speaking. ‘The rest of Florida is just paying for its sins.’ ‘The rest of Florida is like a dead zone and Jacksonville stayed insulated because it never got out of hand building,’ said Shelton.”
‘Florida Atlantic University faces $2 million in cuts after about 750 fewer students than expected showed up this fall. FAU is one of four state schools with flat or declining enrollment this year. Florida State University in Tallahassee is flat, Florida A&M University, also in Tallahassee, is down 1 percent and New College in Sarasota is down 2 percent.’
Home prices to fall 2 percent in 2007, Realtors project
The California Association of Realtors’ annual residential projection calls for “modest” price declines and a 7 percent decrease in sales next year.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
LONG BEACH – The median price of a California home will drop 2 percent in 2007 and sales will fall 7 percent, according to an industry forecast released today.
Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, is projecting a “modest” price decline following years of price gains in the double digits.
Young projected that the median California home price will fall to $550,000 next year from this year’s projected median of 561,000. Sales will tumble to 447,500 homes changing hands in 2007, compared to 481,200 home sales expected this year.
“The housing market clearly downshifted in 2006,” association President Vince Malta said in a prepared statement. “The residential real estate market in 2006 was characterized by a gap between buyer and seller expectations.”
Last year, Appleton-Young had forecast that home prices in the state would increase 10 percent. Today’s report now projects the 2006 increase at 7 percent from 2005.
Look like the realtors are trying to preempt the market by predicting yet again. I would predict a decrease of 10% in Orange County CA at least, taking into account the padding ofthe price by incentives and kick back.
Amazing … with their crystal ball, why do they bother with forecasting home sales and prices. They ought to just pick the next winning numbers for the California Lottery and retire. Maybe the crystal ball is only for real estate. What a bunch of MORONs.
I’m not listening to Applepolisher -Young, I need someone with more prescience ………… What’s Gary Watts have to say?
“Home prices to fall 2 percent in 2007, Realtors project”
Is that before or after the 10% drop already in the bag?
FL ? try 15% in the bag
my old man can’t give his place away
boat lift - gulf access
FL ? try 15% in the bag
my old man can’t give his place away
boat lift - gulf access
appleton young = simpleton
“The California Association of Realtors’ annual residential projection calls for “modest” price declines…”
Maven’s Interpretation:
Don’t sell right now Mr. and Mrs. Schmuck. Wait! Like stocks RE is a long term investment Stay put while my friends and I exit this bubble market ASAP.
It’s okay if you bought at the top b/c according to the fed, moody’s, and other industry experts, we’re nearing the bottom and prices will bounce back by the end of 2007. Wait until the end of 2007 to sell if you must.
Thank you, Ben, for this post. I leave near UCSB where an overheated student ghetto called Isla Vista has been commanding mind-boggling rents from students for the last decade. I have been wondering how many Moms and Dads have HELOCed their kids expenses here, and this is the first evidence I’ve seen that folks are beginning to respond rationally to the financial sinkhole that we call higher education in this country. BTW, a “premium” student rental property has just gone on the market here for 19X (that’s right nineteen times) gross revenue. The listing describes it as an “investment opportunity.” Booowahahahahahahaha.
Most folks on this board realize that da Nile is more than a river in Egypt; now I think I’ve just discovered its headwaters in my own backyard.
Isla Vista is truly a dump. Great party place for students though.
It was a dump when I went through it 25 years ago. And the locals told me that IV had been a dump for many years before my visit.
I graduated UCSB in ‘88. Lots of great memories there. I remember how reasonable it was to live in IV, given the location. Figures that it’s now considered a luxury and is probably a burden for many students who have nowhere else to live.
Rents were mind boggling in IV when I lived there 92-94? How much does it cost now to rent 1/3 of a bedroom on the 6500 block of DP?
Josh
About $750 for 1/2 a bedroom. (Oceanside)
http://tinyurl.com/y4pp27
Can someone give me some insight as to why this fella (link below) is terribly wrong? It just seems too ‘goldilocks’ to me, especially the part about housing bottoming out. I just can’t seem to understand how the economy is getting better when foreclosures are soaring and housing is in a standstill? It just feels like some people either can’t see it coming (slow motion tw) or try to avoid it by giving all possible positive signals.
http://tinyurl.com/srbcz
(Market Watch)
Because companies have a lot of projects to invest in. Housing CAPEX is not nearly as important as business CAPEX.
What about the lowered margin requirements? Boolish?
“the drop in gasoline prices”
This is one of the LEAST meaningful pieces of data. Just as the RISE in gas prices didn’t impact the economy all that much, a return to somewhat lower prices won’t help the economy all that much. Why? It isn’t the factor it was in the 70s. Yes, it does help sentiment but it doesn’t materially impact consumption (not until it drops back down to $1).
“the latest increase in real household earnings”
Some question this number, if it is growing it is important but it would have to be outrageous to help the housing market stabilize.
“stronger consumer spending”
Again, this number is questionable. People buying cars? People buying appliances? Eating out more?
“rising household confidence”
Well that, historically (for better or for worse) has often tied in directly to full prices. Why? Its the one price in the economy that everyone can relate to at any point in time. But, again, the price of gas isn’t the factor in budgets it once was.
“and signs that the worst of the housing downturn is over”
This is just ridiculous. Homes are utterly unaffordable for first time buyers (even the ones who might qualify for conventional loans). The supply isn’t going away overnight, in fact it will continue to increase for a while (builders have to complete most projects). The demand isn’t going to increase because of the affordibility issue, the fact that most people can’t move up, much less move because they can’t sell their existing property without hacking down the price and because a virtual generation of potential buyers is being destroyed by the fact that their credit status, post this debacle, is going to be ruined.
No mention of the reset problem with variable loans, no mention of the portion of GDP the housing industry has provided over the last 5 years and no mention of the fact that virtually every dime of home equity has been pulled out by existing homeowners over the last few years.
The fact is, the economy has NEVER had a “soft” landing when the real estate market busts and to imagine things won’t get worse with all the excesses that will be wrung out as foreclosures, bank issues, builder issues and employment issues relating to housing unfold is, in my opinion, short sighted at best. I’d love to be wrong but this guy isn’t saying anything that would, MATERIALLY, improve the housing debacle. Imagining we can dodge the current bullet without an impact on consumption is beyond even Goldilock’s fantasy.
Very well said jag, I think we need to watch out for this “soft” landing hype. Pretty soon the realtors will be on it, if they aren’t already. I just can’t fathom for how much longer the chinese are going to keep loaning us money so that we keep buying their junk? The only way for that article to hold any truth (IMO) is if we have more helicopters on the way and lower the interest rates, which the economy cannot handle.
Jag — nice post.
If everything (magically) works out just so, maybe the economy will stay good. There is quite a lot of evidence that housing, autos and manufacturing are all headed down a lot further. Today’s housing report was a mixed bag–starts up but permits down. Multifamily apartments were much stronger than single houses. Also, the mid west, where housing has been weakest showed the strongest gain, while the south was down and the west was flat. For people who are a little pesimistic, declines in job hiring for September look ominous and surveys of CEO’s and CFO’s show an increasing number predicting a recession. IMO, the consumer sentiment seems to be very strongly tied to gas prices. Pessimist look at gas prices and say that the decline is due to declining economic activity. Pessimists (maybe realists) also point out that much could go wrong and result in a spike in oil and gas. Stronger than expected declines in home prices could feed back to further declines and some panic among sellers.
Just got a letter from Tampa Honda, they are now offering employee pricing for selected few….If Honda is not selling anything what is selling on other lots…
Wife wants an ‘07 Yukon, but I haven’t figured out if you can get the 100K mile warranty and invoice price AND the 0% 72-month financing.
Ask them and tell us.
Who knows , he could be right . He certainly drank the kool-Aid. I haven’t yet , and disagree , but generally , when I see pundits using terms like “clear skies ahead” and “picture-perfect” and “ready to take off”, i automatically start a mental inventory of my hoarded metals.
All this Goldilocks talk is just an artificial dam trying to hold back the flood of ‘irrational selling’ that will spring forth at the end of 2007’s big thaw. Aka, 2007’s housing market Spring meltdown.
It is simply that the average american’s income has not risen much in the last five years while housing has zoomed up. The reason is easy. Low cost credit helped by the willingness of foreigners to buy our debt. All it will take is a match.
Longer term the living standard of the average american has been flat since 1973. At that time it took far fewer hours of work to pay for a home, a car, medical or an education. The effects of over population have further reduced our standard of living when it is not measured by per capita income or GDP. Isn’t pollution, over crowding, traffic, and the destruction of the ecosystem a measure of economic decline?
The game has been kept going by first convincing women that they sould be “free” and go out into the work place. They should certainly have this opportunity but I think economic forces of a dropping living standard was the main factor. Throughout the last 30 years debt creation has abounded with many clever methods imployed to keep the illusion that our standard of living was not dropping. In the last five years credit creation has become obscene with people allowed to borrow with little hope of repayment.
The whole thing rests on foreigners who control 48% of the government debt. Once they stop playing the game we are toast.
Anything can happen. Winston Churchill once said, “the greatest shock in life is that sometimes stupid people are right”….for awhile. It is all about odds. The odds are good the deflationary spiral has begun.
“The game has been kept going by first convincing women that they sould be “free” and go out into the work place.”
The conventional wisdom is that the high inflation of the 1970’s caused great numbers of women to enter the work force. Not so. The high inflation of the 70’s was the RESULT of that wave of women heading into the workplace. With so many families suddenly bringing in 50-plus percent more income, inflation was a natural consequence.
I was 12 years old when i figured that out, back in the mid 70’s. Amazing that I never heard anyone else say that, till now. Thanks Bill.
“Shelton said the Jacksonville market has been wonderful, relatively speaking. ‘The rest of Florida is just paying for its sins.’ ‘The rest of Florida is like a dead zone and Jacksonville stayed insulated because it never got out of hand building,’ said Shelton.”
This is an interesting point - there are a lot of locations through out the US where prices never got out of hand. I live in one of them, Austin, TX. However, even in our market, about 35% of the home loans are the zero down - zero move in type. If these loans would not be offered, we would see demand dry up in seconds. Lately, these loans have shown a somewhat high rate of default.
I am afraid in a few months that banks will actually make people have a down payment (even 3%) to get into a home. If that happens - boom, no more hosing boom in Austin.
I know what you are saying but prices really DID get out of hand in Austin and all other big cities in TX relative to historical norms and to the local incomes. They still are out of hand.
I know you didn’t mean “hosing boom” but what a funny Freudian slip.
Obviously, it’s different in Jacksonville!!
Also different in Gainsville (per a local resident I talked to on MOnday)
From the article:
“Shelton described one particular living space as a “sexy” unit because of its signature view of the St. Johns.”
Only if your into Financial S & M. With a strong leaning towards the “Masochistic” side.
and
“The Strand is not, and was never sold as, an apartment building. In fact, there hasn’t been a sale yet.”
Guess what Sheldon, you are a fortune teller about it’s future as Condos:
” there hasn’t been a sale yet.”
“Shelton said the Jacksonville market has been wonderful, relatively speaking. ‘The rest of Florida is just paying for its sins.’
So I guess all any seller in Florida needs to do is buy “an Indulgence” from the Church of Almighty Appreciation. Problem solved.
And everyone wants to move to Jacksonville, right?
IMO- prices will still drop there. Especially if 1) there was any equity locust speculation and 2)ANY use of toxic mortgages.
I was at a meeting this week and every person commented on the housing market and everyone there - EXCEPT me said all other markets are F’d and not there market. Some people cant see the forest…
*their (must read post)
I hear talk like this all the time. People talking about the housing (hosing?) bubble like they are outside it.
A year ago I used to offer up my opinion, and was laughed at, got the deer in the headlights look, endured polite nods, and debated with numbskulls who offered nothing more than RE talking points as arguments.
Now I sit silent and offer the polite nods.
(P.S., some of those I’ve argued with have come around and admitted it. Others are silent. Very few are RE boosters.)
The Daily Record is a small legal publication in downtown Jacksonville and is not the major newspaper (The Times Union). Virtually nobody reads this thing outside of the legal community. They have been the sole RE bulls for the area over the last six months. Jacksonville is probably the most out of control market in Florida. The city still saw a huge run up in prices over the last two years that have made the average home price 6 times the average family income. Prices are lower, but the city is much poorer than Florida’s other major cities.
The article is a joke.
Shelton said the Jacksonville market has been wonderful, relatively speaking. ‘The rest of Florida is just paying for its sins.’ ‘The rest of Florida is like a dead zone and Jacksonville stayed insulated because it never got out of hand building,’ said Shelton.
Prices are extremely out of control in Jacksonville. The bottom has completely fallen out of the condo market. The last monthly sales numbers show that condo sales are over 50% down and the prices are over 30% down. Three other condo tower projects on the South Bank were cancelled a few weeks ago. This project isn’t going apartment because it can’t. We will see how long it takes to sell these units.
Its always worse everywhere else.
As noted above - a resident of Gainseville claims all of Florida is screwed except them -as they have the Gators and they create a unique situation. GMAFB!
Well, Crispy, a few large, toothy reptiles will certainly keep the speculators away. Maybe LV should import some alligators.
Shelton has lost his mind. Prices doubled in many neighborhoods across Jacksonville in the last 4 years and are begining to fall. Hand made ‘Reduced’ and ‘Must Sell’ For sale signs are popping up all over town. Dr. Horton slashed prices by 50k in some neighborhoods.
After Money Magazine featured Jacksonville as one of the most affordable places to live, everything went to hell; it became one of the most unaffordable places to live in FL. Apartments converted to condos and speculation grew uncontrolled and rampant, particulary in St. John’s county. As a result, first time buyers were completely locked out unless they were willing to buy POS fixer uppers. Unfortunately, some did.
It’s not different here. In fact, it’s probably worse here b/c there never was a strong and diverse economy to support the absurd price increases I witnessed. The US Navy is the largest employer, Winn-Dixie is still reorganizing in BK, and AOL just shut its call center doors recently. Residents are holding their breath for other large employers to move here but none will b/c it’s too friggin expensive; there is no incentive. In fact, some employers are moving to GA and the Carolinas.
I suspect this is just another Hail Mary pitch to attract unsuspecting out-of-towners who don’t know how ridiculous prices have gotten away from the city’s median income and historical norms. Talk about a house of cards and Sheldon, what a crank!
I was in Jacksonville and st. johns area other day and there were lots and homes for sale everywhere. It didn’t look any different than sfl.
Thanks for this breath of reality. Reading Shelton’s comments, I thought can this really be true? Nobody would be stupid enough to talk like this with all the news coming out….. Glad I was wrong.
Can someone tell me why there are not more of these types of stories coming from San Diego? With a median somewhere around $500K shouldn’t it be falling faster, harder?
The adjusting monthly nut on a $300K Fla place is a lot, but with SD being even nuttier, why hasn’t the market dramatically gone down with tons of FB and realtor sob stories in the news?
I suspect San Diego will be the last to fall, but perhaps the hardest to fall as well.
SD is in deep poo right now. Some poster here has a blog that shows a 40%+ haircut via the MLS on many properties listed in the greater SD area. For a really desparate seller, it’s 2003 prices or nothing. Otherwise you can sit around and wait for the few remaining buyers with a box of stupid to stop by.
I’ve heard a lot of anecdotal evidence that SD is getting hit quite hard, even now and especially in the high-end market and condo market. Check out http://www.piggington.com
The main reason we don’t read more bad news real estate stories in SD is because our local rag, the Union Tribune, is so BULLISH on all things San Diegan!
I hate that newspaper!!!!! I have seen coverage on the same story with the LA TImes being fair on the topic and the UT putting a ghoulish rosy spin on everything.
Dude, we need to differentiate our handles somewhat. I’ve been using AndyS for awhile. Little confusing with two Andy’s. I’m going to start using AndyInJersey.
GetStucco, which mattress do you recommend to hide one’s money: Sealy or Serta?
I prefer a firm mattress with a 4 ” Temperpidic pad for easy money hiding and a good nights sleep.
For the best night’s sleep, invest in a Tempur-pedic mattress. Not only that, it will keep your wallet flat for a good while after purchase.
Try the Amaranth mattress - you’ll awake with a renewed sense of energy each morning.
Like sleeping on a slowly leaking, inflatable mattress that deflates overnight and you wake up with a wicked-sore back.
Ouchee, Ouch, Ouch! And your back ain’t the only thing sore!
I suggest they invest in stocks, and send you the commissions.
With this seasons strong mid-Atlantic winds perhaps by next Spring you can put it under chairman Dingell’s or Franks’ pillow.
I recommend sleeping on a big pile of Silver coins and keeping a loaded Smith and Wesson in the top drawer of your solid Gold night table. Keep you canned goods away from your Uranium mining certificates (just in case there’s some weird cosmic osmosis unknown to us).
“Agents say slower sales in other cities have stalled business in Charlotte. Their clients can’t buy here, they say, until they sell homes in the cities they’re relocating from. Dot Munson said she had a stack of files on her desk representing families that can’t sell homes in Florida, California or the Northeast.”
This is like so NOT FAIR (dude). And they said all real estate was LOCAL. But as it turns out, all the looney speculation that my neighbors here in SoCal (along with some greedy flippers in the rest of the sunbelt) have been indulging in is gonna RUIN it for everybody else.
And here’s the worst part: where I live (Santa Barbara) we’re still in TOTAL DENIAL about home values. I mean everybody knows Oprah has a house here, and that means prices can’t go down! RIGHT!!?! (I can’t hear you . . .)
“‘This (slowdown) doesn’t mean that sellers are going to give their homes away, but there are more for buyers to choose from,’ said (realtor) Donna Anderson.”
Hah?
Insert yesterday’s discussion of ebay concert ticket brokering analogy here.
Best analogy yet.
Its amazing how many people just don’t need to sell their homes. Oh, its also amazing how sales are slowing nationally as sellers cannot sell in the Northeast, Florida, California, and soon a market near you!
Neil
Exactly.
If I hear “granite counter tops!”, “stainless steel kitchen!” “we’re not going to give it away” just one more time, I think I’ll personally strangle the dumbass.
It’s really truly a stroke of genius how they’re manipulating the price to make it look like the market is stable, or better yet, actually increasing!
So, if I buy a pair of Stones tickets for $800/pair, but I can’t sell them for more than $600/pair. Under the new housing “rules,” I should just throw in a $300 IPOD, and sell the combo for $800.
Now, see? I didn’t lose any money on the tickets, and they sold for face value.
I love that !!!
(“Agents say slower sales in other cities have stalled business in Charlotte. Their clients can’t buy here, they say, until they sell homes in the cities they’re relocating from.”)
Looks like a spillover to non-bubble markets.
“Slowdowns elsewhere affect sales here in other ways. Some buyers want to offer dramatically less than the asking price in Charlotte, Munson said, because they’ve seen prices fall where they’re moving from. A buyer who sold for 20 percent less than he thought his house was worth might offer 20 percent less than the asking price for a house in Charlotte.”
I disagree with this, your going to have a group of buyers that have just taken a loss, they are really going to give it to the new seller IMO.
“…they are really going to give it to the new seller IMO.”
Not sure I follow you. Do you mean that they will offer noticeably less than 80% of asking?
I still am amazed at how slow the correction moves. We all know that the markets are 30-40% overvalued; yet we are seeing painfully slow sales reports of 2-6% declines. There is a theory, which says part of the correction comes from an increase in wages and other fundamentals. At first I thought this is stupid. But if the overall correction runs out 4 or 5 years; during that time, wages and funadmentals will have an opportunity to come up to meet the lowering prices. Gordo nyc
You mean the slowness of the MEDIAN to decline. Take a look at individual properties — you will be shocked in many instances at the haircuts people who are actually selling have taken. Keep mind that many current sales also involve kickbacks, er…. I mean rebates.
I agree with you about same house sales numbers dropping significantly. However, overall, those numbers get rolled into the median sales figures. Yes new home prices skew those median levels upwards somewhat, but not that much IMHO.
Incredibly much. Computers get faster and better, the price stays relatively the same. Even the stooges at the Fed know this and invented hedonics. Without a cash/credit contraction, you get bigger and better houses for the same median price. The median won’t contract until the credit contracts. The median is for morons.
Possibly some high inflation could contribute to levels returning to the norm sooner.
Also, the fact that the housing market is not as liquid as say, the stock market, would make it be a much more drawn-out process for the correction to complete. People aren’t going to dump houses as they did stocks just to get out - most likely, those who can afford, or who don’t have to move, will just pull thier houses from the market and try to wait it out for a while.
Over 2Trillion $ in resets says it won’t happen that way…
I hope you’re correct. I am waiting for the bottom to drop out. Sooner the better. gordo nyc
gordo –
I think you speak for a lot of folks that have been waiting, and once this ship began to turn, want it to reverse course quickly. With all the opinions about calling the “bottom” (as well as the next peak), I don’t think there are any new factors ‘This Time’ which would suggest straying from past cycle behavior.
As JWM in SD points out, over 2 trillion in resets is a new twist that could prove to be an accelerant on the back side of this cycle. Never in my memory do I recall the joe-6pack and nancy the hairdresser leaping with both feet and no money into RE.
But …..then on the other hand …. they could prove to be a stubborn breed of new buyers, for those who do have money or have sufficient incomes to withstand their poor investment choice. You read it here every day; “I’m not giving my damn house away”, and this is their opinion after giving the place a whopping 10k haircut! Hard to tell what percentage of the unnecessary housing purchased in the last few years is really going to be owners in trouble. Even those that are, Kubler-Ross process is slow. They will however be worn down.
Last cycle says about 2010 for the bottom – near bottom. What’s the hurry? Nothing like setting in the same theatre and watching the same show as the homeowner next to you, and know your seat is half price.
Or better yet: Remember ‘Star Trek, The Wrath of Khan’ …. when Kahn (Ricardo Montalban) has marooned William Shatner in the center of a planet, and Kahn sets back in the command chair of his spaceship? Remember that look of complete and total satisfaction on his face? Years of planning and waiting had paid off as he knew it would.
“….I’ve got you right where I want you Kirk (aka, seller) …”
Grab a little of that satisfaction gordo, this is the time for planning.
)
(I know it didn’t work out too well for Khan in the end, but you get the idea
Posted ” Over 2Trillion $ in resets says it won’t happen that way… ”
Here! Here! Another pint, put on my tab!
A big correction is already underway. Prices did not increase 20% this year and sellers were expecting it. You can’t expect market psychology to shift that quickly. In the current price increase expectation context, a 20% drop is equal to a 40% shift in pricing expectations.
Yea, here in LA people are JUST starting to think, well ok this year’s it’s only going up 5%…….. Ahhhhhh, Right……..
posted ” You can’t expect market psychology to shift that quickly. In the current price increase expectation context, a 20% drop is equal to a 40% shift in pricing expectations.”
To say the least. Major crap pile to settle into. I just hate that when it happens.
I love it when they talk about “Giving the house away.”
In other words, if you’re not able to make a lot of $$$$ selling a house for loads more than you paid for it, you’re “giving it away.” Huh?
Man, the psychological storm starting to hit Florida is going to be huge. Who wants to go to school there? Who wants to vacation there? Every word is bad. Red Tide. Overdeveloped. Traffic.
The drop in enrollment is (freakishly) telling.
Wait until the real friggin’ storm hits. Many cities were warzones for the last few years. And this was when everybody was gettin’ rich!
We’ll see what happens when everybody’s gettin’ broke.
Well, I would argue that lots of people want to go to school here, and lots of people want to vacation here. Traffic sucks, but that’s the case in many areas.
However, homes are insanely overpriced, so, no matter what people “want”, they are not going to vacation/buy here. Save our Homes has destroyed the idea of a “South Florida Vacation home”. Taxes are totally out of control; insurance is a mess, the market is in a free fall. Who in their right mind would buy here now?
So, I think that lots of people would like to live here. But they are not idiots, and will wait until the prices drop significanly (like 40-50% from the peak). Once that happens; people will start to move here again.
FL does have some real positives (I love it here), as well as serious negatives (as do all other places). However, you would just have to be f*c*ing insane to buy down here right now. Rent it at 1/3-1/2 the cost; don’t worry about the Nazi HOAs, Insurance, Taxes, etc.
Renting makes FL fun again. Owning something here, in this climate, I agree with you. Why on earth would you want to live here!
And road Rage!!
South Florida is very visibly living up to it’s rude reputation.
Everyone , and I include myself in this, is increasingly angry .Sometimes for no known (obvious)reason.
Tonite I had reason-closely avoided accidents from three lane weavers and one redlight -left turn into oncoming traffic, on the phone hummer driver who never even looked at me as I slammed on the brakes to avoid him.
Yup, its paradise here. For FOOLS.
60% Alzheimer’s drivers + 40% working class drivers; by day, pent up road rage; by night. Not a pretty picture. Florida has the worst driving conditions in the entire country.
Florida is a GREAT place to move to. In fact, with all the great features (like overpriced POS’s, regressive tax system, etc….), I’ve compiled all the reasons for moving to the Sunshine state. Enjoy! ;^)
Top 8 Reasons for Moving to Florida
Sorry - try this:
Top 8 Reasons for Moving to Florida
- or this (long-hand) -
http://florida-paradiselost.blogspot.com/2006/10/considering-move-to-florida.html
Everybody talks about the “GOLDILOCKS” economy…..
Remember in the story!!!
>>>>THE WOLF GETS HER
postedI love it when they talk about “Giving the house away.”
Altruistic
Jax has gotten out of control. We were stationed there from 98-02. Bought a 4/2 2000sf w/pool for $169,000 (ironically our other duty station choice was SD where we could have purchased a 2 br 900sf townhouse for the same price). We sold for $208,000 in Mar 02. I Zillowed the place a few weeks ago and it was $350,000. Sure, Jax is different. Last time I visited (Jun) there were about 40 new developments within a 10 mile radius of our old place. Our house was just south and west of the 295/95 intersection off Greenland Loretto. When we left there was NOTHING south of us. Now it is developed all the way to the St. Johns county line. No out of hand building there.