“The Slowdown Has Filtered Through” In Florida
The Ledger reports from Florida. “Polk County builders must be getting that sinking feeling. The county’s building permit total fell a record 82.6 percent in September as the housing market continued to falter in the wake of last year’s boom. ‘Pretty dismal, huh?’ said Joel Adams, executive VP of Lakeland-based Highland Homes. ‘No doubt, the slowdown has filtered through.’”
“September’s percentage decline beat the previous record of 62 percent in August, when permits fell to 373 from 980 a year earlier.”
“Permits in unincorporated Polk, which accounts for the bulk of local permitting activity, fell to 180 last month, a whopping 85.7 percent drop from 1,256 the year before. Winter Haven’s 24 permits were down 84.9 percent from 159 last year.”
“Elsewhere, permits fell from 50 to 6 in Lake Alfred; 48 to 4 in Lake Wales; and 35 to 6 in Bartow. The only city to register an increase was Lakeland, where permits climbed to 58 from 46 last year, up about 26 percent.”
“‘I think we’re seeing a market adjustment,’ said Mike Hickman, president of Lakeland-based Hickman Homes. ‘We had a couple years in 2004 and 2005 where it skyrocketed disproportionately with the population coming into the county. That’s a speculative market.’”
“Now that investors have fled the market, home inventories are piling up and potential buyers are ‘on the sidelines’ waiting for builders to offer their best incentives, Adams said.”
“‘I really think we’re at the bottom of the trough in Polk County,’ Adams said. ‘Now how long we stay at the bottom is the question.’”
From Ocala.com. “A once-frenzied housing market in Marion County has cooled substantially, and sellers are getting creative in order to strike a deal. ‘There are quite a few incentives being offered, now that we have more inventory here,’ said Wilbur Van Wyck, president of the Ocala-Marion County Association of Realtors. ‘Negotiability is back.’”
“(Broker) Bert Meadows said that paying off a buyer’s closing costs has become a common practice. He said it’s an enticer that’s become more prevalent as home sales continue to wane. ‘It’s definitely a buyer’s market,’ Meadows said.”
“Heath Fleming, owner of Fleming Mortgage Services, agreed that the buyer now holds all the cards. ‘A year ago, a seller could name his price and say ‘That’s it. I’m not going to go one dollar less,’ Fleming said. ‘That’s not the case anymore: Now you see signs all over saying reduced, reduced, reduced.’”
“Edie Ousley, public affairs director for the Florida Home Builders Association in Tallahassee, said builders statewide are looking to unload properties in a flooded market and are offering a smorgasbord of incentives. ‘They include complete appliances, trips being offered,’ Ousley said. ‘We’ve even seen some builders offer to put new cars in the garages.’”
“Because of the flooded market, many buyers in other areas of the country have demanded that cash be given back to them as part of the closing terms, according to an AP report this week. But Van Wyck and Meadows both said they haven’t seen the straight cash-back proposals being proffered in Marion County’s market.”
“‘I would think banks would have a big problem with that,’ Van Wyck said.”
“‘I always tell my buyers keep money aside for a rainy day; you don’t want to be real estate rich and cash poor,’ Fleming said. ‘To get the seller to pay closing costs is definitely an advantage to the buyer.’”
“But Fleming said if a builder or broker ever offered straight cash as part of the closing terms he would advise his client against taking the deal, especially if it meant an inflated value for the home. ‘I would never advise anyone to buy a house above the appraised value,’ he said.”
“As for the downturn in the county’s housing market, Fleming said he expects the lagging sales to continue locally at least for another year. Fleming said Central Florida is a different animal. ‘We have a tremendous growing baby-boomer population, so the market is going to adjust itself differently,’ Fleming said.”
‘ It isn’t easy telling an elderly widow living on Social Security or a young laborer with a wife and kids that they must come up with thousands of dollars in a matter of months or face foreclosure of their homes.’
‘But that’s what condo and homeowner association boards throughout South Florida are telling owners after last year’s hurricanes left them facing huge, unbudgeted bills for repairs and for new insurance, which in some cases has doubled or tripled.’
‘We’re getting about a dozen calls a day from frantic owners,’ said Danille R. Carroll, the state condo ombudsman. ‘We tell them there’s not anything they can do but pay the assessment and that they aren’t alone, that associations all over the state are doing the same thing.’
‘Dorothy Reip canceled her homeowners insurance a few months ago after her premium soared from $2,200 to $6,000 a year. ‘I could not eke out $500 a month,’ said Reip.’
‘One way or another, it appears the 30-story hurricane-ravaged 1515 Tower along South Flagler Drive is going to come tumbling down. If it’s sold, its latest suitor says it plans to raze the building. If it isn’t sold, the city of West Palm Beach will likely order it to be torn down. In the spring, Palm Beach developer Thanos Papalexis agreed to pay $56 million before his financing fell through.’
‘With U.S. housing prices slipping and the importance of the international market growing, real estate executives throughout Florida are complaining that the government’s attempts to tighten security controls since 9/11 have gone too far and are now turning away international buyers. ‘It seems like we’re putting the thumbscrews down on the very type of people we want here,’ said Tony Macaluso, a real estate broker in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, and vice chairman of the international operations committee for the Florida Association of Realtors.’
‘I see frustration in my clients who invest in real estate,’ said Reinhard von Hennigs, an Atlanta-based attorney who specializes in immigration and investment law. ‘Many are just scared away by the immigration tactics.
“Frantic owners”….soon to become irrational sellers…just wait.
HOA dues. I have never and I don’t think I ever will figure out why in the world people live where these are in effect. Sure, it means your neighbor may never paint his home in his favorite team’s colors, but it also means you can’t paint the house what you want w/o the association’s blessing. Like I have always said, until you make my mortgage payments, don’ tell me what type of fence I can put up or what color I can paint my house. I know cities have ordinances and all that, but it is much different from a HOA telling me what I can and can’t due. HOAs, the scourge of home ownership, I say!
HOAs are not for us either. But we are the evil type of owners who occasionally leave the garage door up, do woodworking on the balcony, and take the dog off the leash.
HOA dues. I have never and I don’t think I ever will figure out why in the world people live where these are in effect. Sure, it means your neighbor may never paint his home in his favorite team’s colors, but it also means you can’t paint the house what you want w/o the association’s blessing.
In Orange County, Florida, the county government MANDATES an HOA, and certain provisions in a CC&R for all new developments. It took us a year to find a lot to build our home on that wasn’t under the rule of an HOA.
I don’t know why anyone would chose to live in a fascist dictatorship either, but that’s what most HOAs are.
because everyone wants power, but power corrupts absolutely
Presumably, prices are holding up better in areas with HOA’s, no? That was always the selling point in CA.
Presumably, prices are holding up better in areas with HOA’s, no?
That’s the theory. I asked a friend “how can you live in a comminity that doesn’t let kids play basketball in the driveway.” He said “it keeps the property values up.”
I think that’s pure BS. The most expensive zip codes in California have no “HOA” — Atherton, Los Altos Hills, Beverly Hills, etc.
There was an article in the Orlando Sentinel about 6 months ago that showed that property crime and auto theft wasn’t any lower in gated comminites than outside them.
I get comfort in not having to do battle when I want to put up a satellite dish, solar electric panels, or paint my front door blue. That’s “value” to me.
Confession: I like them, as long as they are not overly restrictive or expect an exorbitant monthly fee for the blessing of a project. 3 of 6 properties I’ve owned (all SFH) were in HOA controlled communities. Changed the color of all 3 homes, and never a complaint (hey, some of us just have good taste). Can’t say that for some of the neighbors.
What I found out though, is most HOA’s don’t have much power against the owner who chooses to buck the rules, primarily because the association does not have the money to take someone on. So don’t let that detour you from these communities.
And, I liked this OCDan, …. Where HOA telling me what I can and can’t due…”
That was the perfect typo ….
It’s a TICKING TIME BOMB. Eventually, you’ll get some nut case on the board that will make your life miserable because your fence is the wrong shade of white.
And in CA, they can FORECLOSE on you without a judicial hearing. If they don’t like your “Hillary for President” sign in your front lawn, or your American flag is bigger than their allowed limit, they can fine you…and take away your house if you refuse to pay.
See this
http://privatopia.blogspot.com/2004/03/plain-truth-about-hoa-foreclosures.html
for example.
America needs more heros like Richard Glassell
http://www.ahrc.com/new/index.php/src/news/sub/article/action/ShowMedia/id/33
America needs more heros like Richard Glassel
http://www.ahrc.com/new/index.php/src/news/sub/article/action/ShowMedia/id/33
Not so sure “American Hero” is the moniker I would attach to Richard Glassel. Mental instability should not be revered just because you share his disdain for HOA’s ……
I personally hope he’s still wearing an orange jumpsuit, even if it does clash with the décor in his new house.
If they don’t like your “Hillary for President” sign in your front lawn, they can fine you…and take away your house if you refuse to pay.
If you have a “Hilary for President” sign on your front lawn, you should be taken outside the city limits and stoned on general principle.
This is how you get labled a nut case on the Board Sammy …. I’d recommend a BP vest for the next meeting.
In San Jose, this woman lost her home over about $300 in disputed HOA dues:
http://www.ahrc.com/new/index.php/src/news/sub/article/action/ShowMedia/id/8
The HOA auctioned her house off for $10,000!
This woman in Sac is a buffoon, but the AHRC site has some excellent stories of association abuse. Thanks for that link.
LATEST NUMBERS FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY
September 2005 September 2006 Difference
Number sold 1628 648 - 60%
Number for sale 8034 22896 184%
Avg Price for sale $687,000 $546,000 -20%
Median Price Sold $299,000 $287,000 -4%
Avg. Days on Market 74 107 44%
There is now a 35 month supply of inventory. In one month the median price sold dropped from $300,000 to $287,000 and the number of homes sold dropped from 748 to 648 (-13%) while the number of listings increased from 21182 to 22486 (4%).
Perhaps the collapse of the housing bubble will be good news for Ms. Reip and others in her situation. If your house suddenly loses half its value, shouldn’t your homeowner’s insurance value (and thus the amount that you pay) also drop by half?
NorthernRenter,
Interesting wrinkle. It worked just fine on the way up!
Nope, because you’re buying insurance to pay for repairs if your house gets burned down or trashed. And that’s only going to go down a bit with lower material and labor costs. Oh and it also covers theft which has nothing to due with the value of the house.
Most of the increase in house prices during the bubble was for the land itself, which doesn’t get “damaged” (unless you have a flood or earthquake).
“‘I see frustration in my clients who invest in real estate,’ said Reinhard von Hennigs, an Atlanta-based attorney who specializes in immigration and investment law. ‘Many are just scared away by the immigration tactics. “
So they have given up on finding Americans with money to buy these places and are hoping that immigrants with money will do it. Just who are these rich immigrants? Is this the same kind of wishful thinking that occurred with the Baby Boomers where every town though that the ones with money would go to their town and buy a McMansion and are now realizing that there are not enough rich Boomers to go around. From what I can see most of the “immigrants” we are getting don’t have the money for a McMansion either.
You’re talking about something completely different than Mr. von Hennigs. He’s talking about the rich playboy types and quality professionals that want to live in the U.S. for social or cultural reasons.
filtered through”?
it’s just started- 07 is going to sck
does anyone here think this has been properly discounted by stock/bond market ?
The stock market is interesting–I think that it will come down some in the next months. If the fed reduced rates due to a declining economy, this should cause the value of bonds to go up. The questions are whether the fed can lower rates much from their already low levels and whether cutting short term rates will cause long term rates to decline.
“If the fed reduced rates due to a declining economy, this should cause the value of bonds to go up.”
Lowering rates = respiking the punchbowl / increasing inflation pressures. Then the inflation risk premium may go up => higher bond yields, lower bond and home prices. Of course, this is only true using pre-conundrum logic.
Not a chance. Team Wall Street is frantically pumping and dumping as fast as it can. They lost their grip on some of the lenders today, but managed to hold the builders up a little longer. Only when they’ve stuffed as much garbage as possible in the portfolios of Dorothy Reip and other trusting souls will the market take the swan dive that its clearly headed for.
Our friends in St. Pete know they escaped the Category 5+ virtual hurricane that’s beginning to whack Florida. They settled 2 weeks ago, and moved into a short-term rental until his retirement early next year. The cost of a double move plus storage of some of their furniture will be FAR less than the price decline they’d have faced.
the condo conversions are going to get at lest a 75% shave when all is done. people need to read the first posting from ben. i am in south florida and the amount of people moving out, because of insurances and taxes. palm beach county have a declining student enrollment at the public schools for the first time in over 30 years. this is a school system that has build 3 new high school for the past 3 years. and yet, more is being built. south florida has a toasty housing market.
“Permits in unincorporated Polk, which accounts for the bulk of local permitting activity, fell to 180 last month, a whopping 85.7 percent drop from 1,256 the year before. Winter Haven’s 24 permits were down 84.9 percent from 159 last year.”
My crystal ball tells me lot of people in the construction business will
be looking thru dumpsters for food, clothing and shelter.
“Polk County builders must be getting that sinking feeling. The county’s building permit total fell a record 82.6 percent in September….”
Right…. and according to economic experts, housing’s fallout is not goint to affect the broader economy.
that’s the one I love- how it’s no big deal
suddenly housing is not significant
why are you immune ?
only gov parasites will survive
‘One way or another, it appears the 30-story hurricane-ravaged 1515 Tower along South Flagler Drive is going to come tumbling down. If it’s sold, its latest suitor says it plans to raze the building. If it isn’t sold, the city of West Palm Beach will likely order it to be torn down. In the spring, Palm Beach developer Thanos Papalexis agreed to pay $56 million before his financing fell through.’
Where you at Michael Fink? This is near your ‘hood. This condo building was damaged in August of 2004 from Hurricane Frances. It is a decent location near downtown and on the intercoastal. No way is it worth $56 million. If it is razed I wonder what will be built there. Surely they won’t put up an empty condo tower, we already haveplenty of those.
Driving north on S. Orange in Orlando today — huge billboard with the lead, “Stop Foreclusure!” (sell us your home) — Nope, nothing to worry about in Orlando. Funny, don’t remember seeing such billboards before.
1:30 on WDBO talk radio, during the “money hours” talks — news on Florida real estate — reporter says that Florida realtors organization talks about median house prices virtually unchanged, even though inventory is at 10 months (and climbing). Then, presumably with a straight face, the reporter quotes the source as saying that prices will not fall unless interest rates double AND there is a 5% drop in employment!
Oh, gosh — guess it’s my bad for having cashed out. Note: talk to wife about buying back in before that 10 months of inventory runs clean out.
Driving I-4 last week, I noticed that 18 of the 40 bilboards I passed are RE related, while 2 years ago none of them were.
I’m seeing those billboards in S. Jersey even.
I know I’ve done better this year than any homeowner. Too bad you could never convince any of these RE “geniuses” to look at the stock market. They all knew better.
Tony Crescenzi Blog
Rally Adds Billions to Net Worth
By Tony Crescenzi
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/19/2006 4:27 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10316308.html
The stock market’s recent rally is boosting household net worth and contributing to a rebound in the economy following months of slow growth. This is apparent in the sharp gains seen lately in major consumer confidence readings from Investor’s Business Daily, the University of Michigan and ABC News, as well as the weekly data on chain-store sales, which have strengthened of late.
At the end of the second quarter of this year, households had $5.4 trillion in direct holdings of corporate equities, and another $4.5 trillion indirectly through mutual funds (taking this a step further, households had $11.1 trillion invested in pension reserves, a large portion of which were held in equities).
With the S&P 500 up 8% since the end of June, the value of household holdings of equities — both directly and indirectly — has increased by roughly $800 billion ($10 trillion times 8%), a meaningful offset to the decrease occurring in home values, which, if they fall by 5% (a very large decline from a historical perspective), will have fallen by $1 trillion.
Keep in mind that the wealth effect for homes has historically been greater than the wealth effect from stocks
There you have it. The new ‘new’. Stocks only go up. My investments in Oct. 1987 notwithstanding…
I was on a realtors website for miami that tracks houses for sale vs houses sold. There is now a 20 month supply for all housing and 24 month supply for condos and growing exponentially. And most of the new stuff and resales have not hit the market. Inventory is up close to 400%
The “wealth effect” is questionable for both asset categories.
Off topic, but I just found this on a San Diego realtor site: There were 2 newly listed detached homes throughout Downtown San Diego in August. The average list price was $1,412,100. Of the 2 homes sold, the average sales price was $795,000. That means that detached home sellers received roughly 96.66% of their asking price, putting the market in favor of Sellers. The average Days On Market was 9 days.
There were 180 new attached homes last month, with the average list price at $765,982. There were 33 sold, averaging $610,819. Attached home sellers realized 95.67% of their asking price, suggesting a slight Buyers Market. The average Days On Market was 67 days.
How the heck did they manage to conclude that the sellers got 95-96% of their asking price from these data? I get about 56% for the downtown homes, from which, in combination with the DOM data suggests that the sellers were very eager to sell and so quickly slashed their asking prices VERY significantly. For the 180 detached homes, the sellers appear to have gotten on 80% of their asking price on the average, which took an average of 67 days and represented a 20% price reduction. I expect realtors to try to present things in the best possible light, but how do they expect anybody to believe that sellers have been getting 95-96.6% of asking price from these data?
I agree with you 100%
Truth in advertising is out the window. You can say WHATEVER you want and it doesn’t have to be anywhere near correct.
Personally I think Real Estate Agents are idiots that don’t even know how to add numbers. They search for whatever the nearest Bull Market voicebox is spewing and use it as a quote.
shadash: Are you sure your agreement is 100%? Show me your calculations!
One of my favorite quotes: Statistics are like bikinis…The only thing important is what is covered up.
LOL!
“Because of the flooded market, many buyers in other areas of the country have demanded that cash be given back to them as part of the closing terms, according to an AP report this week. But Van Wyck and Meadows both said they haven’t seen the straight cash-back proposals being proffered in Marion County’s market. ‘I would think banks would have a big problem with that,’ Van Wyck said.”
I would think bank regulators would have a big problem with what sounds very much like an illegal kickback scheme masked by a fraudulent appraisal.
Banks don’t have a big problem with anything because they get to off load the mortgage to FNMA or other MBSs.
“I would think bank regulators would have a big problem with what sounds very much like an illegal kickback scheme…”
That’s what has puzzled me. At the least, you’d expect that the banks’ auditors will make clear foonotes about this in the statements/management notes, to CYA.
The county’s building permit total fell a record 82.6 percent in September … ‘Pretty dismal, huh?’ said Joel Adams, executive VP of Lakeland-based Highland Homes. ‘No doubt, the slowdown has filtered through.’”
You’ve got 80% decline in permits and this constitutes a “slowdown” filtering through?
In what business or market has there ever been a doubling or tripling of inventory for sale and there has NOT been major price markdowns? It is utterly fascinating to read the comments of people in the RE industry us terms like “soft landing”, “slowdown” or “correction” in the face of gigantic, historic, leaps in inventory.
Reminds me of a famous book: “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Mackay.
Man, could there be any more proof of a bubble than the delusional rhetoric of real estate “professionals”?
Good book. Don’t forget lenders and borrowers, however; they are ones that really detached themselves from market and risk reality.
For your viewing pleasure:
http://www.maxedoutmovie.com/clips/index.html
txchick57,
Well worth the time to view the seperate clips! Of particular interest was “The Lawyer” where he reveals how congressman, senators and actors are treated as a “special file” w/credit reporting agencies! I thought I was pretty “jaded” and had all the dirt but frankly that was shocking. I know “I” sure feel like a second class citizen! Please re-post periodically!
TxChick — do you happen to know what the plug-in is, that’s required? My software (Mozilla) thought it is Quicktime, but apparently not. I’m leery of giving the OK without knowing what’s entering the premises.
Looks good. The guru is Dave Ramsey of “Financial Peace University,” a Christian financial advisor with a syndicated radio show. His advice is generally quite good, though directed at the lowest common denominator (thus his investment advice is rather simplistic, though sound). He’s an advocate of only purchasing a home with a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, with a monthly payment no greater than 25% of your take-home pay.
Thnx,
Debt = financial cocaine; the drug of the 2000’s; got everyone high and irrationaleee; made ‘em do stupid things like POAs…
Walking the plank of debt; that’s just cold.
The guru is my favorite, “holding on to his wife to get a better grip.”
I’ve got a question for the mortgage professionals on here:
What do you do with a bwr with a low FICO (due to old old bad stuff) but good (verifiable) income, no current debt, 20% to put down and a “real” (not BS) appraisal that’s conservative if anything?
This is a member of my family. Can this person get a decent loan? The FICO is bad (probably no more than 600 or so)
I’m sorry, I replied below.
Wait 6-9 months and dilligently work on the credit. If it’s old debts he/she may be able to get these items removed from their credit report especially if the creditor was bought by/merged with another company.
If it’s bad due to a BK/foreclosure/charge-offs/collections there’s not much that can be done and any score improvemnt will take time.
At a 600 credit score, 20% down, and enough current tradelines (whether they have balances or not), they may be able to get an Alt-A loan for a fixed rate in the 7’s assuming you can prove their rent. Typically, old tradelines don’t matter on alt-a loans like they do on conforming (FNMA and Freddie) loans. Then of course you have subprime which will buy anything (for the next couple of months anyhow). But I would look Alt-A full doc first or conforming if the collections aren’t off the credit report.
“What do you do with a bwr with a low FICO (due to old old bad stuff) but good (verifiable) income, no current debt, 20% to put down”
After bitch-slapping them for even thinking of buying a home right now, you tell them to take a portion of their 20% and pay off all their revolving debt, put the rest in a good CD, and rent for 50 cents on the dollar.
If they insist, then my answer is they’re an easy loan. With 20% down, they might even be able to get A-paper. FNMA has dropped it’s guidelines dramatically over the last few years, although recently they’re starting to go pucker-butt on us. But I’ve had full doc borrowers with 20% down qualify straight A with FICO’s as low as 580. If they didn’t go A, then they’d qualify sub-prime all day long. Sub-prime would take them all the way down to 500 FICO.
On second thought, don’t even tell them about my second response….just bitch-slap them harder!
I think txchick uses a frozen trout for slaps.
There’s no debt of any kind, revolving or other. Thanks for the answer.
“…although recently they’re starting to go pucker-butt on us.”
There’s a story here that I’d be happy to read.
Was this posted already?
More Homeowners Go Into Default
By David Streitfeld and Martin Zimmerman
Mortgage default rate soars in California, and more defaults are resulting in foreclosures.
http://tinyurl.com/yl4xfn
“When she started TerraCotta 2 1/2 years ago, company President Tingting Zhang said two or three people would come through her door on the typical day looking for help. Now, it’s 30 to 40. “And we haven’t reached the peak yet,” said Zhang, who believes that the combination of rising interest rates and high-risk mortgages could spell defeat for a rising number of borrowers.
“Just Wednesday morning, Zhang dealt with a Lancaster resident who had taken out a $310,000 adjustable-rate mortgage with a starter interest rate of 5.4% and a monthly payment of $1,050.
[At 30-year amortization, P&I would be $1,741.]
“In July, the interest rate climbed to 8.5% and the monthly payment jumped to $2,306. A year-end adjustment will send the monthly payment to $2,744.
“‘The borrower is totally unprepared for this rate adjustment,’ Zhang said.”
No s***, Zhang.
Rents Jump in State; Market Tightens
http://tinyurl.com/y9yxh4
Whoa, look at this. 200K plus haircut so they claim:
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/222853443.html
Dammit. Craigslist is blocked by my work.
Foundation Work Needed is never a good thing in Florida. most homes sit on packed fill dirt (sand) mono slab foundations, sound like a get rich quick fixer upper got stuck.
txchick57 posts “Whoa, look at this. 200K plus haircut”
I love haircut stories! Did you notice the part about “foundation work needed” ? I like thoses stories too!
6-9% is a “jump” in rents, whereas 20-25% was a “jump” in housing sales prices. No problem. I’ll wait it out, and win.
I can’t remember if it was Treasure Island or Madiera Beach, but I saw my first condo auction sign today. It was a very, very large sign.
Why are there a bunch of California issues posted on the Florida thread? Uh-oh. The California Blog Locusts have arrived!
(just kidding)
Yet ANOTHER question for the mortgage loan pros:
Isn’t there anything at all on loan apps / docs about other mortgaged properties? I just don’t see how anyone could allow a median income joe to buy multiple houses…