“You Don’t Know Where The Bottom Is”: Massachusetts
The Massachusetts realtors have the September numbers out. “Massachusetts home sales fell for the sixth consecutive month in September, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported today. Sales of detached single-family homes fell 24 percent from September 2005 to 3,435, and median selling price declined 5 percent to $341,000, the group said.”
“September condo sales fell 28 percent to 1,546 units, and the median selling price was unchanged at $270,000.”
“Residential listings are at their fifth highest level on record, having increased 14 percent over the past year from 56,016 homes and condos for sale in September 2005 to 63,956 homes and condos on the market this past September.”
From the talking points. “Single-family home sales have now decreased for 11 of the last 12 months compared to the same period a year earlier. Last month’s sales total also represents the lowest volume for home sales in the month of September in a decade, dating back to September 1996 when 3,388 homes were sold.”
“The 23.9 percent decline in single-family home sales in September follows annual sales declines of 21.6 percent in August, 25.3 percent in July, and 16.6 percent in June, thus marking the first time there has been four consecutive months of double-digit sales declines on a year-to-year basis since November 1994-February 1995.”
“The slower sales pace reflects the fact that large numbers of buyers remain cautious and are attempting to ‘time the ‘market.’ Many continue to hold out for lower prices, believing a more significant market correction may occur. Many sellers also have stopped looking for homes until they reach agreement on the sale of their own home, which has led to softer demand.”
“The supply of single-family homes on the market increased for a 19th consecutive month in September, climbing 12.8 percent in the past year from 38,319 homes for sale in September 2005 to 43,227 this September. Inventory, as stated in months of supply, also rose from 8.5 months last September to 12.6 months of supply in September 2006.”
“Condominium sales fell for a sixth consecutive month in September from one year earlier. Sales declined 27.8 percent. The last time condo sales decreased for six consecutive months on an annual basis was January-June 2001, and the last drop in condo sales greater than 27.8 percent occurred in April 1995, when sales fell 30 percent from April 1994.”
“The number of condos for sale has increased 17.1 percent in the past year, from 17,697 units last September to 20,729 in September 2006. Inventory, as stated in months of supply, also has risen this past year, climbing to 13.4 months this September from 8.3 months in September 2005.”
“The statewide median selling price for detached homes declined 5.3 percent over the past year to $341,000 in September, its lowest level since February when the median price was $339,000. On an annual basis, the median price has been flat or declined for eight consecutive months, the longest such period since prices fell for 13 months from March 1992-March 1993. The median price is now 9 percent below its peak of $375,000 set in July and August 2005.”
“The statewide median selling price for condos is 6.2 percent below the record high median price of $287,900 set in July 2005.”
“Numbers released Monday from The Warren Group, a Boston-based real estate information firm, mirrored the MAR findings. The group also found single-family homes sales were down 24 percent and condo sales were down 28 percent from the same period year ago.”
The Boston Globe. “James Corbett and his wife put their five-bedroom home in Danvers on the market in March for $539,900. Six months later it is still for sale, for $40,000 less.”
“The former manufacturing-plant engineer and former nurse, eager to move into a retirement community, didn’t wait long to begin reducing their asking price as the housing market slumped. They dropped the price to $529,900 in April and to $519,900 in May. In September they reduced it to $499,900, and now are considering whether to lower it another $10,000.”
“In this house market, he said, ‘You don’t know where the bottom is.’”
“But a recent detailed study by Moody’s Economy.com, says that while home prices are falling nationally, the worst may be over for Boston area homeowners. Boston ‘is very close to the bottom,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. ‘If the price declines aren’t over, they’re pretty close to over.’”
“Sellers once reluctant to cut prices are relenting. Some who had put their homes on the market to test the waters and attempt to cash in on Boston’s record-high prices have taken them off, reducing the surplus and the competition for buyers.”
“Still, some agents, who have been grappling with a declining market for 18 months, are not ready to declare the worst is over.”
“‘What worries me is we don’t have the buyers,’ said Hingham agent Carol Pagliccia. With entry-level houses costing around $400,000, ‘that’s still a hefty entry level,’ she said. Buyers are waiting to make offers because they ‘have in their heads’ that prices will go down further.”
As always, please note that the links at the MAR site are PDF files.
“But a recent detailed study by Moody’s Economy.com, says that while home prices are falling nationally, the worst may be over for Boston area homeowners. Boston ‘is very close to the bottom,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. ‘If the price declines aren’t over, they’re pretty close to over.’”
Whew – that was a close one! I sure am glad things have reached the bottom so quickly in Boston. I guess we’re now in a buyers’ market and I can buy without any negative consequences. What’s an ignorant first-time buyer like me to do without the sage advice of Mr. Zandi?
What a putz.
Good news in all of this is your can buy Zandi’s report for only $3,995 (see https://www.economy.com/home/register/lock/purchase_form.asp?from_landing=1&pid=82-00001-01) .
I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to spend that money rather than take the word from some commission based industry expert … grin….
dude, we’re 12 months ahead of him here on this BB
Economy.com, dismalscientist.com, and freelunch.com have no analysis anymore. It wasn’t all that great to begin with, but Moody’s killed all that. There is no freedom in oligopoly, but the semblance is good enough for most people.
Hey, how about them Bears? I guess that’ll be good enough for me as long as I get my Brats and Pabst and embrace my plebeian future…..
Hey, are you still in Dallas? Lots of bad stuff happening.
what bad stuff are you speaking about?
RE wise.
I just keep seeing more & more construction. I don’t know who is buying. That and the cheerleading articles from Steve Brown in the Morning News. Granted, the articles are a bit more gloomy, and a number of projects look like they’ve stopped, but downtown, a couple of new townhome projects have just broken ground and are going up. I’ve been out running a bunch (I just qualified for the Boston Marathon), so I’ve been posting a lot less.
Awesome. I am running in the WR one, with the goal of NY or Boston next year.
I did the Columbus, Ohio marathon weekend before last. It was a very flat course and the weather was perfect. I ran a 3:18:13. I can’t wait to check out the dead Boston market in April. I’ll be running WR in December, too. It’s always a very good race.
Good luck with your Boston run. I was in college in 1996 when the 100th marathon was being run. But I’m no marathoner - I watched safely from the sidelines just south of BU with a couple of beers in me!
On what basis does Mark Zandi believe that Boston is close to the bottom? Reduction in inventoy, increase in sales volumes, decrease in rate of price decline, increase in Boston area hooker prices?
He needs to come to the area on a Sunday and drive around and look at all of the openhouse signs and the lack of buyer traffic. I was out looking yesterday and let me tell you..it was dead, dead, dead.
Inventory is up, listings are being recycled, houses going under contract are few and far between (yes, there will always be some sales happening), many homes go under contract will contingencies and then the house shows up again, because the buyer couldn’t sell their house, from what I can see, it is impossible to determine at this point whether or not we are near the bottom. Generally, I like Zandi, but I just don’t think the data is there to support his argument.
Any way you slice, affordability is still an issue. I think it is as simple as that. I talk to friends and colleagues, who make very good money, and those that didn’t buy more than five years ago, say that they could not buy their house now. I would say 95% of the people that I know, make at least $100k. Most make more, especially, if you look at the double income couples.
“the REALLY smart money knows when to take the money and run)” Why would The really smart money live in Boston?
Must be those crisp, cold wintery snowfalls that makes it such a great place to invest.
Boston is way more moderate weatherwise than if you go inland and it is quite a livable city. However, you will never get me to say “it is different” there. It is going down and is is nowhere near bottom!
I find this is the money quote: “entry-level houses costing around $400,000″. I’m not sure what all your $100k people do, but when both my wife and I work, we hang around that number. I think we do pretty well, but most of the population doesn’t clear $100k per year.
Starter homes wouldn’t be $400k if it weren’t for the creative financing and shady lending practices. New home buyers like my wife and I have been effectively locked out of the market unless we want to be house poor. Nothing for nothing, we’ll keep renting and maximizing our 401k, IRA, and savings while this insanity comes closer to an end. I’m not in need of a status icon so badly that I’m willing to eat ramen.
Regardless, we won’t be near the bottom until all the foreclosures from the ARM resets are complete in a couple of years.
yeah, looks like we really dodged a bullet. time to doctor up version #2 of my tax return and w-2 and buy a condo to flip. what are you clowns waiting for!
What is with Zandi blowing sunshine up people’s bums? He is going around telling each market that they have hit bottom already. WTF? Where is he getting his information?
LOL, Zandi the sunshine man…
Considering everything else Zandi has been saying, that comment is a stunner. I would love to see what info he’s using to call a bottom now, because Economy.com sure hasn’t released anything publicly that would support that statement.
If the “worst is over” then first time homebuyers who are waiting for prices come down will never be able to buy here. Buyers are waiting to make offers because they ‘have in their heads’ that prices will go down further? Maybe buyers are not making offers because waiting is their only option. We have all seen the finacial trouble than many have gotten into using adjustable rate mortgages to buy properties which they truly cannot afford. Buyers have seen the proliferation of foreclosures in MA. I personally am waiting to buy because all I have seen in my price range is delapidated or shoebox sized, on major highways, etc. I have no choice but to wait. It’s not like I am holding out on the sellers.
Can anyone in Boston report as to whether the best neighborhoods in places likeBoston, Cambridge, Newton, etc. are seeing the kinds of haircuts that are taking place in the less-desirable neighborhoods and towns?
If the answer is “yes” then, as I see it, Boston is unusual at this stage. In DC, NY, SF, and other comparable cities, the prices of high-end homes have continued to rise (at least that’s what Zillow is saying with respect to about a dozen homes I’ve been tracking), in some cases dramatically. If Boston is falling across the board, then it is indeed further toward the bottom (but nowhere near it yet, IMHO!) than other places. Either that or Boston is, despite its self-image, more like Phoenix or Las Vegas than SF or DC.
I live in one of the “best 3 places in MA to have a family” and although it has traditionally been cheap compared with Boston, it has always been more expensive than the surrounding towns, and cities. I have seen the properties that are over 500k stagnate and not sell. Over a million are not even moving. The cheapest SFH are being bought by minorities priced out of Boston Subs and Inurbs, but technically we are more a Providence RI suburb than Boston (45 Minute train ride to South Station).
The Wealthiest town around us (Wrentham, and Mansfield) were the first two that went into a “buyers” market last year, and have yet to emerge. Seeing a lot of 2003 pricing now, and even some 2002. Of course there is still a long list of wishing prices out there that no one goes to see, and houses just sit an linger. My .00002 real cents…
Pinch, I suppose that’s consistent with my point, though: anywhere that’s far out from the city center, even if it got expensive, is currently in trouble across the board.
If prices are falling on Beacon Hill or on Brattle St., then Boston is indeed leading the way down. I’m not sure if that’s the case (yet), however.
Yeah, I’m sure the Heinz-Kerry’s will be selling soon.
Call Manny Ramierez or Johnny Damon about prices in the city….they’ve had their pricey condos on the market for over a year now…..sure, occaisionally a loaded buyer will purchase some dramatic property at a big number because they love something in particular about it and are not price sensitive. But I would no more want to be a seller of a 10 million dollar Boston property than a $500,000 property. There are few people in the market at any level in Boston and, to the credit of the Globe and the Herald, they’ve reported the auctions and stupid seller stories as well as the cheerleading. Recently they had a west coast developer who had something like a 10-15 million property down on the Cape who wasn’t getting any interest ….maybe he knows the owner of the Dodgers who has a similar mansion he hasn’t been able to sell for, I believe, some TWO YEARS, now.
I don’t think prices are falling on Beacon Hill or on Brattle St., but I don’t think they have to for other areas to come down. Most of those properties are either old money or were bought many years ago and are investment properties. The owners would NEVER want to pay the taxes on them, if they were to sell. Also, they view them as too prized to do a 1031x. For those that bought them many years ago and rent them out, they are cash cows. Anyone that was going to sell, sold in the last few years (the REALLY smart money knows when to take the money and run). The REALLY, REALLY old and smart money doesn’t need to sell - ever.
Other “less prime” areas have lost value and will most likely continue to do so.
The most exposed are the newly gentrified areas. The recently converted multi-family homes, where units sold for $600k, $700k and up, where people still get shot and stabbed, car gets vandalized, it isn’t safe to walk at night, etc. These owners are in for a very rude awakening. I also suspect that this is where the exotic mtges are.
Charlestown is an interesting place, the place is so much better than 10 years ago. However, it’s still plauged by crime. Murders, stabbings, a recent shooting outside a school. C-town still has a real nasty side. It’s going to be interesting to see where it goes.
Currently there are 505 places for sale there. That’s a lot for 1 square mile.
2002 ? !!!!!!!!1
that would be 30%+ off peak
show some piucs or a link
O.K. I will bite…Pinch is where you live Walpole?? I get the clues, but I can’t figure it out… 3rd best.. 45 min from boston?
I live in Braintree now you….
I live in North Attleboro. 5 minutes from the conmuter rail to boston, and that takes 45 minutes from the Attleboro Station.
as for 2003 prices, I found this gem below 2004 prices. Just zillow it, and they are already losing money (10K). Right now, I have not had enough coffee in me to remember all the others!!!!
http://tinyurl.com/yea9ux
You Need to be subscribed to ziprealty in order to see it, or MLS is: 70412764
BTW, this house is a block from the high speed and commuter rails that go from Boston to NY…. Fun Huh?
Someone on the Boston.com RE board is tracking a sampling of listings:http://tinyurl.com/ymz6ju. You’ll have to go back a few pages to find the latest one, but it’s been going on for a while.
I’m not seeing big price reductions in Bedford, Concord, Arlington or Lexington. These suburbs were kind of crowded before the boom, maybe not so much in terms of available land, but certainly in terms of an overworked infrastructure, most notably the roads.
The Globe article had a really postive spin, emphasising Zandi’s comments and some data about the rebound of the tech industry.
Buyers are waiting to make offers because they ‘have in their heads’ that prices will go down further.
Which becomes self-fulfilling prophecy, just like the run up in prices. A buyer’s boycott means that the bottom is a long way down yet.
yay for our team
With entry-level houses costing around $400,000, ‘that’s still a hefty entry level,’
How is $400K considered entry-level? I’d say they have zero entry-level houses if $400K is their low end.
I saw a converted garage in Dorchester listed as a single family home for someone with “imagination” listed at 290K, so I’d say there is no entry level.
My husband has that on his list of watched properties at ziprealty.com. It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetic. If there’s a competition for “worst flip ever” that property should be a finalist.
Do you have a pic? That sounds INSANE! A garage (22X25?) for 290000?
MLS#70411712. Currently $199K, down from $249K. Seller bought a few months ago for $120K, appear to have done nothing, not even clean.
On the other hand, there are some really nice old Victorians (and I mean nice) available in Dorchester, and no one seems to want those either.
Note that the median price the MAR is putting out is not just below 2005, but also below 2004.
“How is $400K considered entry-level? I’d say they have zero entry-level houses if $400K is their low end.”
She probably meant entry to Hingham. Like first you buy a condo in Worcester and commute in, then you move up and get something north or south on the 128 belt and when you really hit it big you can pick up an entry level in Hingham…..all CEO types can continue on to waterfront from there!
$400,000 is truly pretty much the entry level within an hour of Boston. Maybe something might be found for $375,000, but that might as well be $400,000.
The homes/towns that represent the half below the median are not very desirable. They aren’t war zones are anything, but people that can afford $400,000 using non-exotic financing don’t want to live there.
I suspect this is what fueled a big part of the condo boom. People look at an old, small house on a small lot for $400k and then look at a newer townhouse, twice the size, in a better location and it is just more appealing.
Back to the $400,000 entry level home….there just aren’t that many people that can pay that and then rehab the place, so we go to the next level, say $450,000..believe it or not, that $50k doesn’t get you very far, unless you go ex-burbs, so one really needs to be in the $500ks to start looking at the better homes.
The funny is that when you look at the $400k homes on the web, they don’t look that bad…but then you go and they are just terrible.
It is a very sad state of affairs.
“The slower sales pace reflects the fact that large numbers of buyers remain cautious and are attempting to ‘time the ‘market.’ Many continue to hold out for lower prices, believing a more significant market correction may occur.”
The slower sales pace reflects the fact that large numbers of sellers remain imprudent and are attempting to ‘time the ‘market.’ Many continue to hold out for higher prices, believing no significant market correction may occur
The MAR talking points assumes there are throngs of additional buyers waiting in the wings just itching to jump into the housing market. What if they are wrong? What if everyone who wanted to buy has already bought and there are no buyers left, then what?
Like Florida, younger families could be leaving MA b/c of affordability and income issues.
I was on foreclosure.com today and decided to check out some community profiles. The most amazing thing that stood out was that in my town (south of Syracuse) we are severly low in the 25-40 age group. I looked at Norwood, MA where I lived for a bit and its 25-40 measures were barely below the top ranges. So I don’t think people have left MA as severly as CNY has experienced and people are still buying up here.
anyone have an auctions results site ?
tia
The big IF and assumption here is that a small drop in ‘wishing prices’ will translate in buyers. While affordability indexes have seemingly disappeared from the media, modest prices drops may not have the effect hoped for.
What worries me is we don’t have the buyers,’ said Hingham agent Carol Pagliccia.
The RE industry can’t understand that there woun’t be anymore buyers, those that could did and those that can’t afford the load will go BK.
‘BOSTON News from Ford Motor Company keeps getting worse, and that is bad news for some local dealers. Some well known local dealerships are closing their doors forever. Waltham Ford will be gone in a matter of days — closing it’s doors — all part of a massive local and national restructuring and consolidation in the American car industry.’
‘This dealership is closing its doors Friday,’ said one Waltham resident. ‘I know it’s awful. I live in this city. I work for the city of Waltham and these guys are terrific.’
‘Down the road in Canton, Blue Hill Lincoln-Mercury abruptly shut its doors two weeks ago. A landmark on route 138, it is one of six Ford franchises in the state of Massachusetts to close down so far in 2006.’
‘Economist Roger Brinner says competition from Japanese automakers, which have much lower costs, has intensified. This, combined with a slow economy, a spike in gas prices and slow housing market, all spell tough times.This, combined with a slow economy, a spike in gas prices and slow housing market, all spell tough times.’
‘A spokesman for Ford Motor Company told CBS4 more dealerships will close, saying the competition is only going to get tougher in the years to come. The four other Ford franchises which have closed this year are Bay State Lincoln Mercury in Framingham, Raynham Ford and two Lincoln Mercury dealerships in western part of the state.’
Ford stores are on their a$$ all over the country. I know this for a fact.
crispy&cole (TM)
There are hundreds of Ford franchises for sale across the country. Most will go out of business and not sell - IMO.
hey, I’m from Bakersfield too. Sold home recently and living in an apartment of Pin Oak Park. Did you know David Crisp has 5 body guard. He disclosed this in the Bakersfield Californian–for those who don’t know crisp is a local real estate mogul but as crispy suggests he may over baked after everything is said and done. I mentioned this before but lost that particular tread. sorry for the repeat.
How long have you been on here?
Crispy (TM)
Glad to have a local join me here. I feel like the only voice of reason in this smog filled Valley!
crispy (TM)
Mybe they think they’ll make more money by selling off thier land to the home builders!
Which is a travesty.
I have owned 3 F-150’s and a Mustang GT (with the intent to purchase another shortly) in my lifetime and have been totally satisfied with all my vehicles.
Jaques Nassar, the racist Lebanese Austrialian POS CEO who trashed thousands of white-male middle managers and squandered $6 billion in cash wrecked it all.
The Ford quality has gone down. I have a 2001 Ford Focus with 78,000 miles and it runs great and is a good car.
I rented a 2007 Focus a few weeks ago with very low mileage, this thing was total trash. Amazing how the quality has gone down in that short period.
Ford’s quality used to be better. I have a 1966 Mustang Fastback. Runs great!
Had a 1977 Pinto, arguably the trough of Ford quality. POS died at 60k miles. Then, like an idiot, I bought a 1980 Ford Mustang that the nearest I could tell had a radiator for a 4-cyl engine with an 8 cylinder engine in the car. Another POS. End of my Ford purchases. Dumbfux should have thought about keeping customers a long time ago.
Dumbfux should have thought about keeping customers a long time ago.
Yup-went into a local dealership for a part and service for my ‘88 Mustang GT.
The parts guy and service manager were total morons.
Nasty-arrogant…Like they were doin’ you a favor by even talkin’ to you.
Another particular I forgot to add for Mazzholeland-innumerable bad attitudes by biz owner’s. Everybody’s feelin’ so flush with their big-bucks housing, they think they can treat their customers like shit.
Mazz is economic toast.
A 1977 Pinto and a 1980 Mustang … ok, in retrospect perhaps these weren’t the best choices.
What always irks me is this lower cost BS. It is a way to cover up the dismal magemnt that all 3 carmakers here have shown in the last 40 years. Most if not all asian carmakers manufacture their vehicles here, in the US, therefore utilizing the same resources available to these bozos. Why are Toyota and Honda not screaming bloody murder? They also provide benefits and retirement plans to their employees, and their product is both cheaper, and superior to what the big three put out! Why are they unable to compete? Maybe the problems start at the top? Maybe at Wall Street? Maybe doing this quarter to quarter thingymajig has blunted their over 90 day vision, and they are unable to plan ahead?
The main difference between Japanese and US is legacy costs. Japanese companies do not have to fork out for large numbers of retirees pensions and healthcare.
Secondly, wrt productivity, the Japanese are starting out with fresher factories that are instantly more productive and better quality. US Big 3 factories would need big cap ex which they don’t have.
LOL, I guess we were both typing our responses at exactly the same time.
The main difference between Japanese and US is legacy costs. Japanese companies do not have to fork out for large numbers of retirees pensions and healthcare.
Ask any United Airlines pilot how that whole ‘pension’ thing worked out for them. A promise is only a promise until someone starts losing money.
Legacy costs my friend…the big 3 are getting creamed by health and pension benefits costs; the Asians and Europeans have national health care systems; in the current global competitive environment, the American business model of yestergeneration is dead. Look it up!
I read somewhere that the average cost per working employee at GM is something like 150K - with 120 or so paying to retiree pension/health care. Toyota is something like 30K.
The union has killed these guys. There aren’t many professional jobs left that pay healthcare in retirement. The union needs to wake up a smell the coffee — give it back or no one is going to have a job.
Try looking into executive pay in the US vs. Japan.
“The union needs to wake up a smell the coffee”
It’s time for the only industiralized nation in the world that has a “faith based” agenda to cover health care for all its citizens, so the industrial giants can get back to making cars. What a concept!
Toyota just chose to open a plant in Ontario instead of one in the southern U.S. because of the universal health care (means they don’t have to pay so much for health care) and the better educated workers. This was in spite of the huge subsidies being offered to bring the plant down south. Who woulda thunk that a socialized system could be good for business?
(well me, but that’s because I’m also Canadian.:)
http://tinyurl.com/yfbucr
posted “The union has killed these guys.”
No it was the greedy pigs that ran the place.
Tom and Ray Magliozzi (aka Click and Clack, The Tappet Brothers) have been saying similar things about the American auto industry for years.
And to think that W. Edwards Deming, an American, taught the Japanese how to set up manufacturing systems that work.
And Detroit paid for the trip. They totally weren’t interested in Deming, they thought he would keep the Japanese in the dark ages forever. We see how that worked out.
OH GAWD-Do you really think all the snotty, status striving soccer mom’s and mutual fund financial hustlers around here would be caught dead driving a (excuse me while I shiver)…a Ford!!!!!!!!!
The Japs with their Lexus’s and Krauts with their Bimmers are KING here in Mazzholeland.
Only the immigrant servers who work at Dunkin Donuts drive Fords and Chevies.
I don’t know about that. The Tahoe and Expedition still seem to be the vehicle of choice amongst the squat, overweight, teased-hair suburbanite/subdivinian hockey mom in outlying Boston suburbs. Take a ride through North Reading, Wilmington, etc, and you’ll see tons of them.
It’s Toyota Landcruiser’s and Bimmer/Benz X5’s up here on the northshore.
The low-class junk from the domestic Big 3 only get to pull the horsetrailers.
I’m on the North Shore; I know the drill. They drive around with their ski boxes on in the summer. Really, I do know.. I was just saying, there still is a pretty big market for the Sloburban/Excretions.. mainly down in the more ‘blue collar’ towns. Let me guess.. you’re in Marblehead.
Let me guess.. you’re in Marblehead.
Very close…Ipswich
“you’ll see tons of them”..yeah, those “squat, overweight, teased-hair suburbanite/subdivinian hockey mom in outlying Boston suburbs” are pretty heavy…the trucks are lighter than they are…have another Frappacino…
Pardon my ignorance, but where exactly is “Mazzholeland”.
an earlier post made me think maybe it might be maryland ?
yep, it’s Massachusetts…
if you need a laugh, watch out Goober-na-urinal (spelled incorrectly on purpose) campaigns.
I’m not totally sure on this one but I believe Mazzholes are from Massachusetts.
The delightful Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
Now, let’s all sing the official state song:
http://www.50states.com/massachu.htm
Well, there’s Jay Leno, who loves his Ford….well, it’s a Ford GT, but he likes it better than his Porsche Carrera GT and Mercedes/McLaren SLR
you really can’t count the Ford GT as a Ford, just like the Viper isn’t really a Dodge
So many car dealers had expanded their dealerships to offer both American and foreign made autos. I’m wondering what the case was with these particular dealers.
Oooo, it started last month, yesterday I see costa mesa 92627 down like 13% year over year. that is like, ah, $90k i believe. seems like a lot…
What stats are you looking at? Do you have a link? I’m renting in 92626, so I’m definitely interested in tracking this. TIA
Data quick showed 92627 -3.4% for Sep. ‘06
Costa Mesa 92627 20 $821 -3.4%
Only 20 sales, which means it’s grinding to a halt.
dqnews.com , click on latimes zipcode chart.
Why are the numbers totally different for the same zip if you click on the latimes zipcode chart vs. the OC Register chart? I understand that the LAT breaks out by SFR and Condos whereas OCR seems to lump them together, but that doesn’t explain the discrepancies (OCR has 92627 down 10.5% v. 9-05). Any thoughts (other than that DQ’s stats aren’t good)?
Boston “is very close to the bottom,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. “If the price declines aren’t over, they’re pretty close to over.”
What is he smoking? We are back to late 2004 / early 2005 prices and we are very close to a bottom?
Let me show him some overpriced POS around Newton, Mass. And see if he will still think we are close to a bottom!!!
“The slower sales pace reflects the fact that large numbers of buyers remain cautious and are attempting to ‘time the ‘market.’ Many continue to hold out for lower prices, believing a more significant market correction may occur. Many sellers also have stopped looking for homes until they reach agreement on the sale of their own home, which has led to softer demand.”
BS…the dearth of buyer’s is because people realize that Mazz is a bad deal with a bogus quality of life, and are bailing for greener pastures.
This moron is whistlin’ past the graveyard.
You can smell the rot.
$13 billion in unfunded public pension liabilities; rampant and entrenched political cronism; crumbling infrastructure; a leaking Big Dig; congested roadways; lines everywhere; muni-budget busting special ed assessments; a burgeoning illegal immigrant populace with increasing radom crime; horrific housing costs; high taxes; small businesses just sacked for health insurance high risk pool costs…the list goes on and on.
Residency here is like a game of musical chairs. Whose gonna be the ignorant dolts left to pay the tab.
And the race for governor is currently lead by a former director of Ameriquest Mortgage which speaks volumes about the place.
All while the worthless Boston Globe foists nothing but hype on the ignorant sheeple.
Ah, you missed posting about the Boston auto drivers. The worst group in the world.
Yeah, I learned to drive on a trip across USA, and my final exam was LA freeways. No problem. Then my husband and I went home to Boston, and I found out I couldn’t drive at all. How many taxicabs abreast can squish into a city street w/ no lane markings!
Yeah, I really like the complete lack of street signs and lane markings up there. One minute you are in the right hand must turn right lane, the next you are in a left hand turn lane - all without changing any lanes. One time I drove around for about 30 minutes trying to make sense of my Mapquest directions because there were no corresponding street signs to tell you the names of the cross streets. Just lovely. I finally had to go back to the beginning of the trip and navigate using the tripmeter.
There’s no signage in MAZZ because the Turnpike Authority and MazzPort used all the dough for six-figure sick-leave buy-outs for all the connected high echelon scmucks who bailed or retired
You guys are babies.
Driving in Massachusetts is awesome - always has been. It’s like being a stunt driver in the “French Connection” or something (Gene Hackman, among others).
I feel like after visting Bahstin (maybe a half dozen times a year), and driving in a rental for a weekend there - I can drive anywhere. It makes dealing with all the namby-pamby northern California wimp drivers seem like a piece of cake… and somewhat tolerable.
Well, except for the lamest out here who continue to drive like grandmothers - specifically those who stay in the fast lane.
[no offense to grandmothers, really]
OK sf Jack, after a refresher course driving in Bahstin, you are now prepared for driving in any Italian city…
(see winjr post below)
No way! San Antonio is waaay worse.
I dunno …. the worst driving experience I ever had was in Manhattan. The worst experience I ever witnessed was in Rome.
if you can’t take the heat get out of the kitchen. tell me where you’d rather be. mass has unique towns with a lot of character, and you can easily bop from town to town. i had to drive from ashland to bedford and my nav took me through some beautiful country in sudbury, concord, and bedford itself. the globe is still a great rag even though it was bought out by the ny times. you must be afraid of the truth like all the bushies.
OT but I saw an interesting thing at an open house in the neighborhood yesterday. The realtor showed up with an open house sign and 7 other people. They stayed the whole 2 hours during the open house, milled around with brochures in their hands, and then left with the realtor at the end. They were hired to make the open house look busy!
Now that is really funny!
Being hired to make an open house look busy. Is that what the sign-spinners are doing these days?
Now that’s clever … I would love to visit that open house just to observe. I’m sure when some sucker wanders in off the street, they all launch into a “script” … oooohing and aahhhing over the granite countertops and stainless appliances, and whispering just loud enough for the sucker to hear, about how they have to get an offer in quick before it’s snapped up!!!! All to create the illusion of scarcity and buyer desperation that we have not seen since 2005. Good luck with that one!
Add those 7 people to the employment numbers!
Let’s see… Mass has 43k homes for sale.. multipley that by 7, we get 301k new jobs.
Excellent. Come on President Mitt!
I’ve seen this on an informal basis where a neighbor of the seller or an agent’s “friend,” drop by and start gushing about the house. Its very annoying. They hint how they like the place; they hate my answer: “Oh, we’re not ready to buy yet, do let me know how you like it.” At that point the realtor ™ wants to know when we’re buying and if he/she can be the buyer’s realtor. Ugh…
Do people really fall for this?
Neil
No, people, those open house attendees were not paid employees, nor were they realtor’s friends.
They were sellers who have current listings with the realtor.
And part of their listing agreement was that they had to show up at realtor’s open houses to make it look like there was interest in that property.
It’s a new marketing paradigm!
“Some who had put their homes on the market to test the waters and attempt to cash in on Boston’s record-high prices have taken them off, reducing the surplus and the competition for buyers.”
Somebody please explain this thinking. Sky-high and unattainable ‘wish prices’, once removed from the market, somehow improve sales? It may reduce the surplus, but I suspect the sales percentages on this class of home was almost zero: removing them from the listing will not affect the absurd pricing levels that still exists. I take it that Zandi believes that Summer 2005 prices are sustainable and altogether ‘proper’ - and once these ‘test the waters’ prices return to that level all is good.
I think people assume just because these long time owners don’t have to sell that they are just testing the waters when they actually do really want to sell their homes. They want to take off in the RV or retire to somewhere cheaper. I see them take their homes off the market for a couple of months and then re-list it. I’ve seen some homes in the area I’ve been watching closely re-list 3 to 4 times.
One grossly overpriced house I was watching even had the creepy red headed grandma and the RV in the listing pictures. Someone besides me must have been creepied out by Grandma too because in the 2nd listing they removed Grandma’s pic. Everytime I saw her pic I thought I ain’t funding this greedy old bag’s retirement. She wanted an unbelievable 558 a sq ft.
Anyway here’s the
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 04/09/06 — $589,900 to $569,900
Price Reduced: 05/23/06 — $569,900 to $559,900
Price Reduced: 06/04/06 — $559,900 to $519,900
Price Reduced: 07/01/06 — $519,900 to $489,900
After 224 days on the market they re-listed it again
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 08/31/06 — $489,900 to $449,900
House was on the market for another 113 days. I don’t know if it sold or not. I bet not and I see it relisted in the Spring.
I wonder how much equity these greedy types are going to lose chasing the market down.
If I was a “kinda-wanted-to-sell-but-didn’t-need-to” I’d probably do the same thing.
Boston ‘is very close to the bottom,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. ‘If the price declines aren’t over, they’re pretty close to over.’”
Sorry Mark my boy, it ain’t over.You may want to stay tuned because you are way out of touch with the big picture.
Is somebody paying these guys (Zandi, Lereah, etc) to say we are near the bottom, or are they truly that dumb to come to those conclusions on their own?
$529k to $499k? That’s cute. Seriously folks, you haven’t started lowering your price yet. A 6% price decline over the course of 6 months? That isn’t even newsworthy. The sad part is that people think it is…
Yeah, the Corbett’s situation is another good example of following prices down in a declining market, a price predicting predicament.
That house is $150k overpriced. Danvers is 20 miles from Boston and gridlocked in terrible 128/114 congestion. It has not-great schools and is mostly famous for a worn out shopping mall. These people are senile losers.
Danvers is 20 miles from Boston and gridlocked in terrible 128/114 congestion. It has not-great schools and is mostly famous for a worn out shopping mall. These people are senile losers.
You got Danvers nailed, LMAO!!!!
Idiots pay their fookin’ town manager $156k a year.
Plus the cops and firemen are havin’ a field day cleanin’ out the till.
They play the chicken-little soccer mom’s like no tomorrow.
Hey HD74,
I hope you see this..
Thanks for the feedback on Rowley last week.
Pen-Rowley’s the “sleeper” community on the Northshore. Close to I95/and funky pub life in Newburyport.
Just don’t plan to put kids in the Triton school system.
Realtor.com —-> 70354314
10 Rogers Road
Danvers, MA
Last sale…1964….no price..my guess, maybe $20,000
Yeah, but hit salemdeeds.com and you’ll see that they pulled out a $420,000 2nd mortgage (a HELOC, I guess) three years ago, probably to pay for their slot in the active senior nursing home. Fools.
ouch…
they are screwed.
Their best bet is to go FSBO at $420,000..
“….On an annual basis, the median price has been flat or declined for eight consecutive months, the longest such period since prices fell for 13 months from March 1992-March 1993. The median price is now 9 percent below its peak of $375,000 set in July and August 2005.”
Reading these statistics I can see why some people foolishly assume we are nearing the trough and the worst is behind us. Their fallacious logic assumes b/c MA is near the lows of 92/93 the worst is behind it. Unless there is some kind of divine economic intervention, MA is probably got at least 2 more clicks down…. ouch!
Zandi is a moron. Why pay for his B.S. when you have the CME futures to guide you?
Not sure if I can hyperlink this but here is a very good report on financials risk associated with da’bubble. http://welling.weedenco.com/html/0819_LI_Levy.pdf . It is an August report but it will take a while to flush through. I like his analogy of Housing bubble being climbers sliding down a steep icy slope off a cliff. Since the are teathered to the others, they only need 2 to pull them all down !
I’ll take that back. It is the Oct issue !
HoustonStan, we are sharing some kinda weird intellectual cosmic plane today b/c I just finished reading the same friggin article!
Great minds think alike
This is totally OT, but I was climbing Mt Rainier this summer and I was on a rope team with four other guys. One of the people on the rope was a large (~250 lb) middle aged guy who told me “he had bad balance”. Part of our pre-climb lesson was how to arrest a fall of a fellow climber. If the big doofus tripped over his feet on the mountain it was our job to stop his fall. I started practicing unclipping myself from the rope.
Here’s one for you, Brandon. Nice haircut. I thought there was no bubble in DFW
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/224667145.html
Gotta love the “instant equity” reference …
“The slower sales pace reflects the fact that large numbers of buyers remain cautious and are attempting to ‘time the ‘market.’”
That is a polite way of saying the buyers are trying to avoid catching a falling knife.
Mark Zandi of Moody’s- ” If the price declines aren’t over, they’re pretty close to over”.
I actually wrote this quote down in my notepad and dated it. How much longer can this kind of BS go on? Who believes it? Are people going out and buying homes and condos because they read stuff like this in the papers?
Here is an article written by Lee Adler at WallStreetExaminer.com http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=3087 slating the ethics of realtors. What gets to him is the Realtors who claim the high ground but turn a blind eye. He used to be a realtor years ago but has commented many times in the past few years, about the recent illegal activities going on in the real estate market in Florida (His base). He sold his house last year almost at the peak based on what he saw. Today, Lee is financial newswriter on wallstreet examiner where his methodology is based on hurst cycles.
For those of you interested in dicussions on stocks and economy, he hosts another site http://www.capitalstool.com that regularly discusses shorting stocks, gold, commodities and yep, the state of the house market.
“Mark to market” is forum for evening and “intraday stool” looks at daily movements.
If this month is Red October, then what is next month???
Nadir November? Negative November? Turkey Month?
November 2006, the Nightmare before Christmas!
Don’t forget that Red October in Russia was followed by the worst manmade famine in the history of the world. Millions of Russians died during that famine. The Russians put up Potemkin Villages for travelling dignitaries. The visiting “believers” wanted to be fooled. I believe it was George Bernard Shaw that threw his food packages out the window and muttered something stupid like, “I have seen the future and it works”. Shaw must have been related to Zandi.
I’m at home from work sick today, so, I decided to do some research on the history of a recent foreclosure property in Chicago…
Found this jem of a house located in the Belmont Cragin neighborhood: http://www.cookcountyassessor.com/filings/searchflat//ParcelImage.asp?pin=12234130200000
First flipper bought the house in 8/95 for $97K. He sold the house in 10/1999 for $257K! That’s 150% appreciation in 4 years!
Second flipper sold it in 3/04 for $348K. That’s still a 10% appreciation rate per year!
The third flipper sold it for $470K in 11/04! $122K in 8 months! I want to be a flipper too!!!!
This is where the appreciation story ends. The FB used an 80/20 100% financing scheme. Not surprisingly, he defaulted the mortgages in March or April of this year. The property is being sold at a foreclosure action this week.
A little more research on the owner shows that this is the second house he bought in two years using the 80/20 100% financing scheme. Guess what? He’s in foreclosure on both houses now.
1995: $97K
2004: $470K
Same crappy ugly house. One really F’d Borrower.
Looks like we have our own little bubble here too folks…Chicago isn’t immune…
Think of the POS appraiser who greased the skids for the whole ugly process.
I’m sure the appraiser twisted the arms of those buyers. The loan originators had nothing to do with it either giving them opt arm neg am loans…
I am a Lawyer posts “I’m at home from work sick today, so, I decided to do some research on the history of a recent foreclosure property in Chicago…”
So sad too bad…. Music stoped and no chair for last boy…. when he settles down on the floor don’t feel too sad for him…. the load in his trousers will soften the blow.
” when he settles down on the floor don’t feel too sad for him…. the load in his trousers will soften the blow.”
Instant classic.
“In this house market, he said, ‘You don’t know where the bottom is.’”
Now we’re getting somewhere……….
When this statement becomes the concensus, we truly will be at the start of a buyers market.
The bottom is where the cost of buying is cheaper than renting, thus compensating the purchaser for the risk of capital.
az_lender,
I agree with your numbers. But it needs to be 1st “No one knows where the bottom is.” True Despondency. No more waiting for the GF fairy.
OT, but… I’m from Mass… now live in L.A. Prices still ridiculous here… denial isn’t just a river in Egypt but… I think I finally found an affordable house here! Only half a million! Check it out…
oops…
http://tinyurl.com/yc2b33
Wow, that’s a real beauty.
That’s one for the books. Wow. Look at the comps, too!!!
Nope, no bubble here.
BTW, my parents lived in that area in the late 50’s & 60s. It was bad even then.
“The slower sales pace reflects the fact that large numbers of buyers remain cautious and are attempting to ‘time the ‘market.’”
I am REALLY becoming annoyed with this assumption. I think it much more likely that buyers, as a whole, have finally gotten a clue and figured out that homes are no longer affordable.
What does the REIC think? That millions are ready to jump back into the market at the slightest hint of “stabilization”, even if it requires a toxic mortgage to get the deal done?
“I think it much more likely that buyers, as a whole, have finally gotten a clue and figured out that homes are no longer affordable.”
What buyers? Home ownership is near 70%. With no barrier to entry, anyone who wants a home has a home (or two, or ten.) EZ-credit has allowed the REIC to borrow several years worth of future buyers.
Don’t be fooled: This game is just getting started. Patience will be richly rewarded. Just take a look at 1999 prices to see how much more your money will buy you by 2008-09.
Just take a look at 1999 prices to see how much more your money will buy you by 2008-09.-
———————
How true. These are the prices that BUYERS need to be anchored to. It’s easy to forget what the price of a house would be without the credit bubble. You have to go pre-2001 for that, folks (and 2001 was the peak of the housing cycle, sans credit bubble, IMHO). Anyone thinking 2003 prices and “they’re in” is in for a serious reality check.