Flippers “Hit The Skids” In Oregon
The Olympian reports from Washington. “South Sound median sales price increases for homes year-to-year have dropped from 28 percent in February to 5 percent last month, the Olympic MLS reports.”
“Median sales prices have dropped in five of the first nine months this year, peaking at $262,488 in July and finishing at $249,575 in September. And the inventory of homes for sale has nearly doubled this year to 1,764.”
“Russell Saimons, a financial adviser in Seattle, said he eventually wants to buy a home but ‘it probably won’t happen for two to three years’ because he expects prices to keep coming down.”
The Mail Tribune from Oregon. “The median price for Jackson County homes rose 5 percent in September, after dropping for the first time in 22 years during August. With countywide inventory 171 percent above last fall’s level, buyers are biding their time. New home sales are down by about 30 percent this year in the county.”
“Rick Harris, former president of the Oregon Association of Realtors, and an agent in Ashland, said Jackson County isn’t experiencing the severity seen in some regions. ‘Statistically we’re an anomaly from the prices you see from Poughkeepsie to Pocatello,’ Harris said. ‘Oregon has already made the adjustment and we’re starting to stabilize.’”
The Newport Times. “Starting Friday, Oct. 27 and spread over three consecutive days, 17 different new homes from Roads End to Depoe Bay will be open for 16 hours. (Realtor) Dave Davis was inspired to start what he believes to be the first-ever tour like this in north Lincoln County by a number of things.”
“One of them, he concedes, is a housing market that doesn’t see new construction selling as fast as it used to. ‘Our inventory is up,’ he said. ‘There are more new homes on the market than I think we’ve ever seen in Lincoln County in the last four years.’”
The Oregonian. “The frenetic pace of sales and price appreciation that catapulted Portland’s urban condo market the past two years has calmed. ‘Everybody knows it’s not appreciating like it has in the past,’ said real estate agent John Cooper. ‘Whether it’s leveled off, or will level off soon, or hit the skids, no one knows. But it’s not good now.’”
“In the city’s core neighborhoods, the Pearl District, downtown, Northwest District and South Waterfront, dozens of buyers are shooting for a quick resale instead of living in their units, adding to a growing supply on the market.”
“Many fear the urban condo market is poised for a steep decline in prices and volume, as it saw in the early 1980s. And individual speculators, known as flippers have added to the mix. ‘Last year at this time in the Pearl, there might be 11 active resales, and we were just in awe,’ said Judie Dunken, a condo specialist. ‘This year, we have closer to the 100 mark.’”
“Several buildings are under construction with 50 percent or more of their units reserved with nonrefundable earnest money. Condo buyers, especially those who bought to flip their units, are worried about the potential for oversupply, said Cooper. Cooper helped a customer sell a South Waterfront condo development a few months ago when only 15 others were available for resale in building. This week, 40 units in the RMLS system are up for resale.”
“‘One thing that made my guy nervous was he knew as more people closed on their units, they would be putting them on the market,’ Cooper said.”
“At least one investor has lowered his asking price in recent weeks. Agent Judie Dunken said she is listing a townhouse unit in The Meriwether at South Waterfront for $999,900, down from $1.17 million.”
“A growing gap between expectations of buyers and sellers now is complicating the market, Dunken said. Buyers see lots of units available and want to negotiate prices down, while sellers want to replicate appreciation rates of years past, she said.”
“‘It’s tough because they’re absolutely beautiful units,’ Dunken said. ‘But they’re priced as if a buyer came to town and had $1.4 million to spend.’”
‘A Port Angeles plywood mill is cutting back operations and reducing its workforce by 59 employees. K Ply Incorporated has announced plans to curtail operations during the week of October 30th. K Ply President Shane Hancock says start-up the following week will be with a reduced work force, dropping from 185 to 126 employees. Hancock says operations have been re-designed, with reduced shifts on graveyard and on the green end of the mill. He says the slumping housing market, foreign competition and falling plywood prices have contributed to their decision.’
I live in the area and can confirm that K Ply is reducing production.
Right across the water is the capital of the Canadian province of British Columbia, Victoria. Victoria, with a population of about 250,000, has the same RE prices as Canada’s biggest city, Toronto (pop 5.5 mil). BC’s biggest city, Vancouver, is more than 50% more expensive than Toronto, but is less than 1/2 as big.
BC’s provincial motto is “It’s different here”. BC’s #1 industry, is, ahem, forest products.
Over shoot is natural for up as well as down. the over shoot in the RE slump , yet to be seen, will be a world of hurt for the us and world economies. ouch. hold on tight.
But, but, but it’s different this time!
There is also the problem of being the “last domino to fall”. Let’s say that the PNW lags the rest of the country (as is the case now). When the rest of the country has bottomed out just about anywhere else will look more attractive than the PNW (price-wise). Suddenly NOBODY will want to move to the PNW because it is relatively unaffordable to just about anywhere else.
Being “special” at the wrong point in time could make the price declines even steeper and the subsequent overshoot worse.
“‘It’s tough because they’re absolutely beautiful units,’ Dunken said. ‘But they’re priced as if a buyer came to town and had $1.4 million to spend.’”
I’ve seen some of those Pearl District condos and they are beautiful. They’ll be even more beautiful at half their current prices.
- “A growing gap between expectations of buyers and sellers now is complicating the market, Dunken said
This is not complicated at all …. buyer expectations rule.
“‘It’s tough because they’re absolutely beautiful units,’ Dunken said. ‘But they’re priced as if a buyer came to town and had $1.4 million to spend.’”
They’re priced as if a buyer came to town with a bucket of money and a box of stupid.
This all is starting to sound like the film “28 days later”
Looks like Casey’s famous “NY buyer” bailed out of the contract for the Dallas house. This is a joke. The place is worth less than 200. I’d say less than 175 and I used to live near there.
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/226595121.html
Good! I hope this little $hit goes down in flames and more importantly, now that he has the media’s attention, starts singing like a canary and brings down this sinking ship with the rats still on board!
Oh, let me tell you. TXC is on the case. I’ve put his post on the flag forum, I’ve posted my own ad which will appear in a few minutes and I’m making it my personal mission to make sure this doesn’t happen. Nobody despises that little POS more than me.
“Nobody despises that little POS more than me.”
You might have some stiff competition on this point, TXC.
But he’s trying so hard to please his Maker…
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I’ve seen suggestions on other forums that his site has got to be some kind of scam to get a book or movie deal and avoid the dreaded task of working for a living.
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/226619877.html
I think the URL in your ad is wrong. It should be http://www.iamfacingforeclosure.com. Otherwise, I applaud your efforts!
txchick
Your post has been removed from craigslist.
“…I’m making it my personal mission to make sure this doesn’t happen. Nobody despises that little POS more than me.”
I am grinning from ear to ear.
YES!!! Thanks for the smackdown on this hotshot. He makes every honest investor look like scum.
I noticed his address is: what does Zillow about comps???
9524 Angleridge Rd
Dallas, TX 75238
“Honest investor”? Pray tell, what’s the difference between an honest investor and a flipper?
An honest investor buys an apartment building and intends to keep it.
“what’s the difference between an honest investor and a flipper?”
1. My loan application says Investor not owner/occupied
I could go on, but lets start with that.
You go girl!
Why don’t they deport his fraudster ass back to Uzbekistan?
Who is Casey? And what did they do that was so bad?
http://usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-22-young-flipper-usat_x.htm?imw=Y
What a Dumba$$!
His ad has been flagged off. If he reposts, it, I’ll let you all know and between us, we can remove it in seconds.
This is amazing. Talk about envy disguised as hatred. I see you can even censor his free speech.
Dr. Freud, call your office!
Blow me.
“This is amazing. Talk about envy disguised as hatred. I see you can even censor his free speech.
Dr. Freud, call your office!”
Shill in Carolina. You are on the wrong blog. Go hang with you speculator buddies.
Casey needs a system for all of the new mail..
“Ever since I started falling behind on payments there has been a significant increase of mail. It was bad enough before - keeping track of mail on 6 active properties: mortgage statements, utilities, insurance, etc. On top of that we have over 11 business/personal credit accounts and all the personal mail too.”
Casey, dude … you need to get a cardboard box for each forclosure. Then, get another box for over due credit card bills.
Remember where you procured the boxes - you may need them for your new home under the bridge.
Casey, dude … you need to get a cardboard box for each forclosure. Then, get another box for over due credit card bills.
Then several more to hold all the stupid.
TxChick,
Please stop saying “blow me.” It’s infantile coming from a guy, but downright moronic coming from a female.
I really can’t believe that this kid still doesn’t get it. Forgive me in advance, but I have to vent. Forgive the use of the second person (I have no idea if he ever visits this site, but I’m not posting on loser boy’s boards and risk that it contributes in any way toward generating ad revenue):
A response to a compilation of recent posts…
Yes, I decided NOT to take the normal 9-to-5 job with a “secure” paycheck and benefits… By the way… I never said, having a regular job is a BAD thing. A good job provides the financial base to launch your business and/or investing ventures. However, being tied up for 8 hours does have it’s trade-offs. For now I feel I can sacrifice temporary security of a job for attaining financial independence faster.
??? Financial independence is a worthwhile objective, but it very happens overnight. If achieving financial independence were as simple as deciding not to be “burdened” by a 40/hr a week job and claiming to be determined, then no one would have to work. In the face of complete and utter failure, he’s basically going to continue to run away from real responsibility, convinced that he’s special and that the basic rules of life (eg, work if you want to eat) don’t apply to him? What a f—ing loser. It seems to me that he’s still under the mistaken assumption that the world owes him a very nice living for very minimal effort.
One one hand (declaring bankruptcy) feels like “weaseling” out of my responsibilities. On the other hand, if I take the bankruptcy route and wipe off my debts, I can focus on rebuilding my real estate business and moving forward…
He shouldn’t be able to walk away from this. The idiot racked up over $2M in debt in less than a year without *ANY* source of cash flow. If the system allows him to “rebuild his empire” in less than 10-15 years, then we need much stricter, more punitive bankruptcy laws. He says “on the one hand it feels like weaseling out”–well smart guy, that’s because it is. There is no other reasonable counterargument. You committed fraud to get loans that you were nowhere near qualified for. You should be paying that debt off until the day you die. If that means that after a few years in prison you’ll have to buy a series of $750 junker cars (cash only), rent a studio apartment in a crappy neighborhood, and have Burger King twice a month be “going out to eat” than that seems just about right.
It’s ironic that I was learning how to buy foreclosure earlier this year and now I am the distressed seller facing foreclosure. Now I know what it’s like.
Its lovely that your $2M education was able to provide you some insight into such complex aspects of human psychology, such as empathy. For most of our species, around four years old is when they begin to notice that other people exist and have feelings as well. But because you’re special, obviously that lesson could wait another few decades.
Honestly, its a novel concept that taking advantage of someone’s misfortune for your own monetary gain presents some moral issues? When you were reading about estate sales and how survivors are often “motivated sellers” it never occurred to you to take into consideration how “the mark” might be distracted by grief? Or that people who had actually worked hard the whole lives for a home, but are suddenly hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt because of a devastating medical expense, that the last thing they need is a parasitic wannabe Donald Trump harassing them with cold calls? F—ing self-absorded jacka–.
Man, do I wish I would have never put my wife on that loan! I managed to be the only borrower on all my other houses. However, on this one, the hard money lender insisted that we both be on it. I didn’t want to say NO because it probably would have cost me the deal. I only had a week to close on it.
Yeah, you’ve taken your wife down with you. After she leaves your sorry excuse for a husband (probably about 10 minutes after the final grades for her accounting degree post), she’ll be haunted by your laziness and greed for at least another ten years. She’s an adult and responsible for her own actions, but it should keep you up at night that you betrayed her trust and faith in you.
BTW, this “deal” that would have fallen through… I assume that’s one of the houses that is about to be foreclosed upon? Ever think that you might have been better off NOT getting the loan? Even if it bought you a little bit of time by defrauding your lender to get some cash at closing.
I also asked the lender if I can do a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. He asked me “Why?”… So, I told him: “I want to deed you the house to protect mine and my wife’s credit from foreclosure”.
Talk about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic! He’s asking why because its not going to make a lick of difference on your credit report when you’re in the process of five other homes. A deed-in-lieu of foreclosure has a very marginal benefit to ones credit rating if its just the one house. Its not going to do much to protect someone who will lose a half dozen other properties and will ultimately file for bankruptcy.
Ever since I started falling behind on payments there has been a significant increase of mail. It was bad enough before - keeping track of mail on 6 active properties: mortgage statements, utilities, insurance, etc. On top of that we have over 11 business/personal credit accounts and all the personal mail too… My wife is the one that usually handles mail and paying bills.. However, she has been busy with homework and tests lately. So I have to pitch in.
Managing bills is a central part of property management. I realize that you’re still struggling with minor aspects of running a business, like CASH FLOW, but think maybe that you’re not being involved in paying the bills is part of why your little business venture so rapidly self-destructed?
Here’s a little tip: sales grow revenues, but controlling costs secure profits. And not every expenditure is an “investment in the future,” often times its just pissing money away. And nearly every undercapitalized venture ends in financial ruin.
Next, I loved this so much that it has to be presented in its entirety:
1. I will not work more than 8 hours a day. Monday through Friday 9am to 5pm or something similar. This way I’ll have room for daily exersize, social life and a full night’s rest.
2. I will focus on money producing activities. Since my working hours are limited I must use the time wisely. I must learn to work smart and be efficient.
3. No working on weekends. That is a general rule. Weekend work would only be allowed if it’s something that cannot be done on a weekday. Open house is a good example of that. My wife will have to approve the activity first - to prevent me from abusing the privilege.
4. I will keep all work in the office. No taking work home.
5. Blogging, comment moderation, email, etc, will have to be done in the office during working hours. I did however, negotiate a 2 hour blogging/email allowance on Saturday. This way I will not have a huge pile of messages on Monday to go through. So I hope to continue posting daily, except for Sundays.
Wow. Just wow. I don’t know of any successful small business owner who doesn’t work well over 8 hours a day and routinely takes work home, not to mention nearly always putting in several hours on weekends, Particularly at the very beginning. This kid is completely delusional if he thinks that he can cruise through a But my primary goal for publicizing my “screw ups” on this blog has always been to help people. Help both regular home-owners facing foreclosure and newbie investors/flippers like me who got in over their head. That’s my target audience.
I’m not sure who the greater fool is in this proposed scenario: the charlatan who thinks he has something to teach the ignorant masses, or the occasional idiot who thinks he has something to learn from him. This guy is living in his own warped reality. He has nothing of value to share with society at this point in his life, and probably never will. Its obvious that he still hasn’t learned the fundamental rule of economics: there’s no such thing as a free lunch.
I really hope that some state AG or US attorney goes after him on fraud charges and he spends a few years in prison. Although being a ward of the state might not be the best venue for him to learn about there being no free lunch…
On second thought, just take him out back and shoot him. I don’t want any hard-working taxpayer dollars being wasted on this miserable waste of flesh. Just spend $0.25 on the bullet and be done with it.
how’s biz?
other than a fed worker , who has fun in a recession?
don’t wake me up before 08
short sellers
people long high-grade bonds
genuine value investors
habitual savers
repo men
auctioneers
commodity/options traders
stores selling low-end goods and services (people shift down)
auto repair/parts (people fix their cars rather than buy new)
people who travel a lot (leisure travel gets MUCH cheaper)
lawyers
financial planners w/good track records and references
health care is affected somewhat, but not a whole lot
home shoppers (the ones who saved for a rainy day instead of buying on the suicide loan payment plan)
Yes, I’d put them in with “genuine value investors” and “habitual savers”.
Who was it that said that a recession is when money is returned to the rightful owners?
Seriously? Please post a link to your ad!
Looks like today housing has started to affect the broader stock market, for the last few months there has seemed to be a disconnect with reality. GDP figures down, earnings not so good. This might all just be getting started.
I’m now waiting for the government to come out with a “core GDP” number, that is, GDP minus housing. Same rationale as with the CPI. Hey, if we take out all the stuff that’s causing us trouble, we’re doing just fine!
For those of you not living in the Puget Sound area, I would like to report that the market has quickly turned from bright to hideous. It is my opinion, that we are in far worse shape than certain areas of California. While we were behind the curve for quite some time, there has been an acceleration, probably due in part to psychology, which has quickly closed the gap. Economic conditions are quickly deteriorating (ie. mills cutting back etc.) which will further exacerbate the housing collapse. There are countless poor individuals, who had no business buying, who stretched for $200k trailers when they could not even afford a $100k place. They will most certainly face foreclosure. Washington and Oregon have long histories of high unemployment, which is going to rear it’s ugly head in the not so distant future. Pain is on the horizon.
There are countless poor individuals, who had no business buying, who stretched for $200k trailers when they could not even afford a $100k place
You noticing that too, huh???
When they get pushed out, they can come to AZ and I’ll finance them into a $45,000 lot-plus-trailer. Many people on Social Security or SSI or disability can afford the payments
Is that a joke? (I ask this seriously, I’m Australian and don’t know the AZ market.)
If you’re serious, what would a typical lot rental be?
Our economies run a bit behind the rest of the nation, too… When things start getting rough nationally, we’ll be 4-6 months behind. Portland has been slowing down, I can see… but some folks are still buying. They smile knowingly at me when I suggest waiting.
I expect you are right about the delay. I sold out here in Sequim (zip98382) last year by luck and now rent. We have tons of inventory and sales are down. But! Prices sure are very sticky going down.
For those of you not living in the Puget Sound area, I would like to report that the market has quickly turned from bright to hideous.
Kinda like the weather this time of year, no?
This year the weather has turned out to be warmer than it usually is. But obviously, the nice weather doesn’t help real estate much. I live near Yesler & 12th avenue in Seattle, and houses & condos for sale around my place have been sitting and sitting and sitting on the market without selling. And their wishing prices got reduced as well. So much for the evergreen state! Will houses ever sell for the next few years?
OT… Sorry but many of us have known whats been coming for years.
The Delusion of Home Ownership (January - 2004)
Some months ago I clipped and filed this satirical piece.
Showing no ill effects from a weak economy, housing numbers released by the National Association of Realtors today showed that a record 75 million Americans are now participating in the mass self-delusion that they, and not their banks, actually own their homes.
“Home ownership is the fulfillment of the American (banking industry’s) dream, and we are proud to announce that more Americans than ever have been able to (help lending institutions) achieve that dream,” said NAR President Richard Schicter.
It was published as a joke, but it’s entirely true. “Homeowners” all over America are not homeowners at all. They don’t hold title to their property and they must pay monthly installments to a financial institution until they pay back the principal and all of the interest on their mortgage. Then, and only then, will they lay hands on the title to their place and will be entitled to say “At last! I am a HOMEOWNER!”
Wait! That’s not entirely true, either. As long as the local government has an automatic lien against that property it will forever exercise that lien and collect money from the homeowner. If the harried homeowner is hard-pressed to pay he may be thrown out of his home and it may be sold to satisfy the lien. Anyone acquainted with law will explain that whoever holds the power to take someone’s property if payment isn’t made is the actual owner of that property even though someone else’s name may appear on the deed.
A person may own his bed, microwave, and TV outright - but not his house. If he ever makes a final payment on the mortgage and gets the deed to it he still must make annual payments to a local governing body if he wants to keep it.
The federal government is in the throes of making matters worse by helping low income people “achieve the dream of home ownership.” The scheme calls for subsidizing their down payment so they can become saddled with a mortgage without the inconvenience of having to make a down payment. These poor souls will sign some papers, move into their dream-house, and start telling everyone they know that they are now “homeowners.”
Another popularly held myth is that buying a house is always a good investment because it can be sold later at a handsome profit. Almost anyone will tell you that home values are increasing and you can build up quick equity. In fact, in addition to the main mortgage payments one may get an additional mortgage on the equity of one’s home. A banker of my acquaintance once called these equity loans “Perma-Hock,” meaning they were a form of debt that tended to become permanent.
People cling to the myth of real estate riches. They will tell you there is no way we will ever see a reversal, a period in which house prices stabilize or even decline. Just because a majority of people believe a myth does not convert it into truth. As Lady Mary Wortley Montagu famous said, “General notions are generally wrong.”
The enthusiasm for monster mortgages has all the earmarks of a bubble, and bubbles always burst. The jury is out on the when of that implosion.
January 31, 2004
AMEN
Actually, you pretty much don’t own anything. The government could institute a bed, microwave orTV tax and declare that anyone not paying the tax shall have that item seized and sold, with due process, of course.
This is, of course, an intellectual exercise. Nobody is “safe” from government. The idea of “ownership” is always subject to the vagaries of government.
Why limit the fantasy to govt? Your next door neighbor could very well be plotting to take your microwave/bed/tv? If he has more strength or a bigger gun, he can do so? What makes govt so special in that regard? Only that it tells you it is going to do so beforehand.
Josh
And that you have recourse against your neighbor taking your microwave/bed/tv, but not against the govt.
Wasn’t this exactly what the communist government of Vietnam did to take over private property of what was formerly South Vietnam? The gov’t simply taxes everything and then seizes property for lack of payment of taxes.
Yes but without government, there is no ownership in the first place, unless you and your family live by yourselves out in the wilderness.
Without collective security there can be no property rights - the guy with the biggest club can just take what he wants.
How secure is property ownership in a place with no government, like Somalia?
The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away, so render unto Ceasar what is Ceasar’s and get on with life…
Hey! I’ve got a novel idea! How about following the friggin constitution to the letter, then we can have property rights AND security. Gee, who would have thought there was already a method in place that our forefather’s actually fought a war to achieve?
Too many Americans are trading security for freedom. A bad trade IMO.
“A growing gap between expectations of buyers and sellers now is complicating the market, Dunken said. Buyers see lots of units available and want to negotiate prices down, while sellers want to replicate appreciation rates of years past, she said.”
As someone with 1 out of 5 houses on the market in my little subdivision, if a buyer wants to negotiate prices down, how about making a lowball offer? It seems like that this agent talk to cover up the fact that there are no buyers. Are agents really afraid to present a less than 90% offer?
I did a short sale condo the other day in Boston. I got to the appointment 15 min early and waited for the realtor. I started going through the sales transfers and found that one sold in 3.15.06 for $5,000 more than the subject sales price.. The realtor got there and told me the buyers got a steal and there should be no problem with the value… What an ass.
I will tell you, downtown Portland is a nice place, generally, but almost all the condos - certainly all the new ones - were priced at near-Bay Area prices. I could not imagine where the buyers would come from, except there. The pricing per square foot was/is, in many cases, 2x what the same thing costs in the suburbs, even those close to light rail (hop on and be in the same place as the condo-dwellers). My take is Portland condo prices will drop at least 25%, and the area’s real estate in general will fall 10-15% and be flat for some time.
“My take is Portland condo prices will drop at least 25%, and the area’s real estate in general will fall 10-15% and be flat for some time.”
I have not paid too much attention to Portland, but a drop of 10-15% here in the Seattle area would do nothing for affordability. A drop of 40%+ is easily feasible given that a 1000 square foot fixer on a postage stamp lot in northe Seattle was going for $450,000. People making $150k per year would not even consider the place. The disconnect is way too large to ignore. Median income determines median price in the long run. The phantom equity of the last 4 years is gone in due time.
Met a buddy to watch the world series tonight, afterword we met a couple of his gal friends. The one was a bubble headed realestate agent and was talking about the pride of ownership of her brand new 450sqf condo in the Pearl district. I didn’t say anything to cause a rucus but holy “sh**” that is barely the size of a closet. What an idiot, last time I saw someone stupid enough to make that deal it was a dude in frat house drunk off his a** braging about his room - the hall closet. Bring out the koolaid:)
I’ve seen many 10 to 15 percent price drops in the Pearl in recent weeks — still not interested in buying a $400,000 condo when I can rent a one bedroom place for $650 a month.
This links to the John Cooper Pearl District site quoted in the Oregonian, and listings have been 120-130 since summer.
http://pearl-district-lofts.com/portland-oregon-pearl-district-homes.html?x=1&ob=b&startrow=101
I walked into a weekend open house on the now $925,000 Park Place listing in late August. It’s vacant, nicely attired, but looks little used, almost as if it’s been a model unit for the last two years. According to the open house realtor on site, it’s owned by “a couple from Bend”, which of course is another spec haven, who show up for “occasion weekends” or “short stays”. Incidentially the realtor blatantly lied to me about Pearl active listings numbers, claiming only 40. I aggressively confronted him, and his reaction told me these Boyz are so used to getting away pulling from their ass subterfuge, that they don’t think twice about it. Running into the likes of me, was a “new” experience I’m sure.
At any rate, at the time the seller was asking $975K, then they cut to $935k in mid-Sept, and just recently to $925k, where it still sits. I’d pay $400k for it, and still would be nervous, but then I’m a big housing bear.
The 121 unit Metropolitan in the Portland Pearl will be finished in mid- 2007,
http://www.liveinthepearl.com/portlandoregoncondosloftshomes_the_metropolitan_condominiums.html
and we will gauge just how severe the flipping issue is there. This will be one where prices paid by flippers (real owners?) will be underwater, and we could see very high cancellations. Will obviously be the one to track for the next leg down in the Pearl.
The developer put 10 reserved units on the market In early July, and as of today, there are 8 still offered, so looks like a couple have been sold, but obviously slow as molasses.
http://pearl-district-lofts.com/portland-oregon-pearl-district-homes.html?x=1&ob=b&startrow=71
Probably. The reason why is simple: they present themselves as real estate “experts” and the price they suggest to you, logically, is a “professional’s” opinion of its market value (at least close enough to attract reasonable bids).
When you don’t get any bids what do you conclude about your broker’s “knowledge”? Riiiiiight. So if he brings you a low ball bid and doesn’t totally dismiss it he is tacitly admitting he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. The bid isn’t “insulting” to you, the buyer. In reality, the bid is insulting to the “professional” realtor (assuming he, largely, set the price).
Do you like presenting to your clients evidence you are wrong/stupid?
Me, I try to avoid that……….
A friend put their house on the market 2 months ago. The price is too high but he’s convinced that “all it takes is one buyer”. That’s true if you don’t need to sell but he NEEDS to sell. His mortgage payment is too high and he’s finally figured out that it’s “way cheaper to rent”.
I told him to go to Zip in his area and check out how much is price reduced and what comparable (also non-selling) properties are listing at, then undercut those by at least 10K. In his zip code, comparable properties are available for 100K less than he’s asking. So he’s got a LONG way to go before he can dream of selling that house. There is absolutely nothing “special” about that house, except in his own fantasy mind.
There are a lot of sellers in the “wishin’ and hopin’” stage. They’ll chase the market all the way to the bottom or else get foreclosed on.
They still believe their realtors who have been telling them that the Fed’s cutting interest rates in January and that will revive the market. Other friends are waiting til January to put their house on the market for just that reason.
Somebody told me a local realtor office just shut their doors in Belingham. They read it in the paper so I guess it’s probably true. If it is, that’s huge.
We’re going into the cloudy, cold-ish, wet-ish season now. The weather here in the summer and early fall is really pleasant (I think) and realtors have been yammering on about all the people coming up from CA. to buy for 5 months now. It’s their one saving grace on pretending the market can hold up (that, and the interest rate fantasy). But anyone who shows up from Southern CA. this time of year will probably think twice before committing to a purchase.
All the lumber places laying people off, WAMU mess and Amazon troubles, now realtors closing shop. Doubled YOY inventories and rapidly falling YOY “appreciation”. In Bellingham, some zips are now OVER 50% price reduced. None of this is at all evident in the look of things around here yet. Everything still looks economically vibrant.
I guess the next step will be less traffic, emptying stores and restaurants, and a number of people going quietly bankrupt.
Are they still building a condo tower in BELLINGHAM????!!!
mac from Portland
I must say, that was one of the funniest things I’ve read in a while.
If the British had negotiated a bit better and got the Canadian border 1 degree farther south, Bellingham would today be a suburb of Vancouver, BC, and they’d be building a dozen condo towers.
Yeah, but there’s lots of WORK in Vancouver. What’s in Bellingham? WWU? What else?
Nothing. Besides WWU, literally nothing. Now that Georgia Pacific’s gone, nothing.
And yes, they’re still “planning” on building the tower. But last I checked they hadn’t broken ground.
People are really starting to “get it” here that RE is toast. So maybe it won’t happen.
Some of the Seattle condo projects are still strangely “stuck in place ” from where they were last summer too.
I hope they build them all. Rents in Seattle and B’ham are cheaper than buying, that’s for sure, but rents are still too high in both places. So the more new apts. the better.
What a stupid episode this has been.