Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For October 28, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Going to put this here too in case you all don’t look at yesterday’s thread
http://www.myebid.com/cgi-bin/auction/view?cmd=view&listingID=2435
Interesting. So, what happens if the highest bid is, oh say, $250,000? What are the chances Casey renegs on his “no reserve” auction, and finds himself staring down the barrel of a lawsuit? Furthermore, why did Casey not use eBay?
… if “Casey” exists at all. If he doesn’t, or you cannot find him, you have no-one to sue.
Ebay charges fees for sellers. This site is “free”
You have to appreciate the integrity of Casey’s blurb:
“I bought several properties over the last year and now all of them are in foreclosure. This was a real estate investment that went bust for me just like the housing market in general.
I must sell all of my properties in less then two weeks and I am auctioning all of them off for one price. Get in on the best real estate deal in history!
ties are all single family residential homes� located in: CA, TX, NM and they worth over 2 million dollars in total. I will start the bidding at $10K with no reserve price and I will sell to the highest bidder.
the addresses� of the properties please send me a massage
Good Luck!”
Ha ha. Please send me a “massage”!! I guess that’s one way to alleviate the pain from the short sale.
“Get in on the best real estate deal in history!”
If this is true…why isn’t his best friends “Rich Dad”, who’s giving him an office and a job, jumping at the offer?
Keep your enemies close…keep your friends closer!
Does anyone want to predict when we will have the first high-profile online real estate foreclosure auction that turns out to be a pure take-the-money-and-run scam? Or have the auction web sites figured out how to preempt such “market failures?”
you’d pay via escrow- or you deserve to lose your $
You’re kidding about the escrow company right. Do you know how easy it is to set one of those up? Do you know how easy it is to get ripped off by one?
GS I predict 3 years
We really should objectively study and document this kid’s bubble induced behavior. He is the canary in the coal mine and he just entered the ‘panic selling’ phase. There are a lot more speculators like Casey out there and he truly captured their bubble induced behavior and now their fate. Casey would make a great case study, IMO.
No wonder this idiot can’t sell anything. His “ad” only talks about the trouble he got himself into; it doesn’t say anything about the particulars of the house he is trying to sell.
Casy has a website. You gotta see this http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/
First , how can Casey have a auction unless the lender approves of it . Second , I saw Donald Trump/Rich Dad Guy on a religious station hyping a combined new book called something like , “We want you to be rich “. When are these people ever going to stop trying to sell real estate at high prices in a bad market while making the stupid people think they are trying to help them grow rich ?
That dude was in USA Today:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-22-young-flipper-usat_x.htm
“Casey” was featured in USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-22-young-flipper-usat_x.htm
I just read the USA article on Casey . This is a worst case than I thought . Alot of those sellers committed fraud by giving Casey money and uping the appraisal . I didn’t realize that he was getting money this way from the sale plus getting 100% liar loans also .
I would suggest that Lenders make it standard practice now to do appraisal reviews on every property since this practice of Casey and his sellers might be widespread . Someone taught Casey how to do this and I think the authorties need to crack down on this .
“Someone taught Casey how to do this and I think the authorties need to crack down on this .”
The Realtors and The Mortgage Brokers will get blamed for it but that particular scheme is in every late night guru’s handbook and has been for the past 30 years. It get’s real popular in down markets saw a lot of it during the last downturn. Seller’s gotta sell they become more agreeable to it. Actually in a tin-foil moment I believe that’s the only reason why L.A. will stay afloat
“Someone taught Casey how to do this and I think the authorties need to crack down on this .”
Maybe the people doing $3,000 3-day RE investment seminars are teaching this?
Casey is a crook. I don’t know what the current crop of guru books and workshops say. I bought a big name course in 1997 for $300 and it said to put other people’s cash down (borrow from friends, family, credit cards, cash-in savings bonds, sell your car or boat, etc.), pay 50k for a house that rents for $650/mo and needs only cosmetic improvement, set aside reserves monthly for repairs and replacement costs, and, if it cash flows (after taxes, insurance, utilites, etc) at least $20/mo, buy it. So even with 5-10 houses, profit of $100-200/mo means don’t quit your day job. And all houses must be within 20 minutes of where you live. That formula worked with even 4% appreciation per year. And as soon as possible refinance into 15-20 yr notes instead of 30 yr. Casey is a crook and the lenders helped him.
I thought it was humorous to suggest that this is a “no reserve” auction. Obviously, there is an implied reserve in that the price has to be sufficient for the banks to agree to accept it if it ends up a short sale (and it would, big time).
I found myself wondering whether this auction was really someone’s idea of a joke. There is no mention of it on Casey’s website.
The idea of auctioning all the properties together is sheer idiocy/lunacy. Imagine the banks trying to quarrel over how to split up the total bid, when they’re all taking it in the shorts anyway.
The only way a real auction would work for Casey’s situation is for each property to be auctioned separately. And that’s what will eventually happen, of course–they will just be foreclosure auctions!
I think the Myebid thing is a joke/scam set up by someone else. Have been following Casey’s blog.
Has “Casey” found his Greater Fool (GF)? I noticed someone has already bid $10,000. The ad does not say whether the buyer will pay off all of the mortgages for all the properties.
I don’t know about those other states, but selling a property for less than what is owed is a crime in Oklahoma (unless I am reading the statute wrong), see:
http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/deliverdocument.asp?id=70141&hits=504+429+282+167+92+
here’s a follow up to that LA Times article Ben put up yesterday on that Aliso Viejo Condo Conversion auction.
I didnt do the math being used in that article. But what about taxes on that income? I make more than double $16.50/hr and was looking at a 30year fixed loan through the state and with 5% down in that same $400k price range. I still would not make enough to be qualified under the 43% of what I make before taxes rule they use to qualify.
Are people actually thinking they can afford something based on not getting taxed? Thats possibly more scary than the no doc loans where at least the people getting in trouble know they cant afford the loan.
“Are people actually thinking they can afford something based on not getting taxed?”
People are guided and drawn into that thinking by a government and now a private sector that, in my estimation, is completely bankrupt. How many times have you heard “tax less so the people can put more of their own money in their pockets”??? They would like you to think that paying less in taxes is going to cover the unreported staggering inflation and contrived depression in wages. In fact, they won’t even acknowledge the inflation/wage stagnation issue.
You are absolutely right, raising taxes will definitely help out with wage stagnation and inflation.
Especially if we spend that money blowing holes in the desert.
Amen Feepness. It’s good to see some view this sensibly.
All taxation is extortion. No one has a right to your money.
Check the tax and spend clause of the Article I, Section 8, Clause 1 to the US Constitution.
“All taxation is extortion. No one has a right to your money.”
Hmm. Ok, then I guess you don’t have a right to roads, highways, firefighters and police? Who wants to pay for that crap anyway?
“All taxation is extortion. No one has a right to your money.”
We’ll never get that wall built!
It is a function of liberty (free from arbitrary authority). If you tell someone that you are taxing them to provide for the common defense, roads, firefighters, etc., that is one thing. People can decide whether that is a worthwhile means for the fruits of their labor. However, if you tell them you are lowering taxes, but actually raising them by inflation, and spending the money on things you didn’t realize, that is not liberty. Maybe you are ignorant. Maybe you are too trusting of people in high elected office who shouldn’t steal from you. I don’t know. The point is that you have been subjected to arbitrary authority. Someone else decided what was best with your labor, all the while telling you opposite. Bottom line, we the people are at fault. No other way to slice it.
“All taxation is extortion. No one has a right to your money.”
“We’ll never get that wall built!”
Just have the illegals build it. They could bring it in for half the cost.
Captain Credit,
Tell us one more time how confiscating the wealth from private individuals and corporations and redistributing the loot to the unproductive members of society helps the economy?
I’ll give you an answer when you tell me how you’d like to pay for your share of previous and current obligations.
Will that be a tax increase or an invoice from the treasury?
You really should go by “Captain Morgan” because you’re not making any sense.
Of course it doesn’t make sense to the dishonest. Say…. How about you post under your real user name?
buyers over the last to years envision perpetual 8-10% growth
no income needed, just own
wow are they wrong
Anyone who thinks a little drop in interest rates will bring back the good old days is delusional, said Paul McCulley, managing director of fixed-income giant PIMCO.
That’s right. Falling interest rates will be in response to a slowing economy. People don’t buy houses when their worried about their jobs. If you look at a chart of when prices really started to skyrocket the last few years, it was when the FED started raising rates. At that point the REIC scared people into thinking that rising rates would price them out forever, resulting in a mad dash to buy any property at any price.
Casey is stupid but this is really dumb, so dumb that it has to be a publicity stunt.
Bingo…Bingo…B.I.N.G.O. !!!!!!!!!!!!!
publicity stunt!
This guy Casey is screaming like a little baby hoping someone will shut him up and make him go away by buying him out . I bet when he was a kid this tatic worked with his parents .
Gotta love that ‘curb’ reference!
Excuse me, but how on earth can anyone sell a property that is in foreclosure? The “owner” cant pass title to the buyer without paying off the lenders. Does he think people are that dumb, or it is just that he is really that dumb?
That’s what I’m thinking:
If he’s got equity then his situation isn’t as dire as he is reporting.
If he’s not got equity then he has no ability to complete the sale.
Yeah, doesn’t he to get his lenders’ consent to a short sale? And didn’t he use like 10 different lenders? What are the chances that every single one of them agreed to this?
Something doesn’t add up here.
Wasn’t Casey bitching about the fact that the lenders wouldn’t give him a short sale ? Like I said in the post above, he wants someone to shut him up by buying him out . What about Casey’s fraud with the lenders ? I think Casey would like someone to view him as a charity case and donate . Casey was a guy who went for the big killing in real estate with a greed that knew no bounds .
Buh-buh-but I thought the housing market slowdown was not going to affect the rest of the economy…
—————————————————————————————————–
Housing market slows economy
Downturn in sales, construction cited
By Eduardo Porter
NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061028/news_1b28econ.html
October 28, 2006
The housing market’s free-fall cast a chill over the economy this summer, slowing economic growth in the third quarter to 1.6 percent, its weakest pace since early 2003, the government reported yesterday.
But evidence of a decline in inflation coupled with vigorous consumer spending left most economists saying that the overall economy is unlikely to be dragged into a recession even as the housing market continues to falter.
“We are in a housing recession, but we are not in a broader economic recession,” said Richard B. Hoey, chief economist of Mellon Financial.
The government report, which showed growth slowing from a 5.6 percent pace in the first quarter and 2.6 percent in the second, appeared to validate the expectation of Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the economy would settle softly into a pace consistent with what he considers an acceptably low level of inflation.
“Ben Bernanke’s forecast was that past Fed tightening would slow demand,” Hoey said. “The forecast is tracking as far as I can see.”
Stocks fell and bond prices rose as investors factored in the weaker-than-expected growth this summer, concluding that the Fed was less likely to raise interest rates next year.
With the midterm elections little more than a week away, the Bush administration sought to convince voters that the economy, while beating at a slower pace, remains healthy.
“We have a very strong, large resilient economy that can absorb a housing correction,” said Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. “If you isolate the impact of the housing correction and look at all the rest, those are solid numbers.”
—————————————————————————————————-
Economic growth totters to slowest rate in over 3 years
By Jeannine Aversa
ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20061027-1152-economy.html
11:52 a.m. October 27, 2006
WASHINGTON – The economy has slowed to a snail’s pace, growing in the just-finished quarter at the slowest rate in more than three years and stirring fresh debate about the country’s financial health heading into the elections.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that economic growth during the July-to-September period clocked in at an annual rate of just 1.6 percent – a subpar performance that mostly reflected the deepening housing slump. Investment in homebuilding was cut by the largest amount in 15 years.
That “packed a wicked punch for the U.S. economy … but it was not a knockout blow,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
I think it’s more like “the economy was already in deep doo-doo, but Average Joe Homeowner and his R-E wifey didn’t realize it because house prices were going up.”
I’m glad this bubble’s finally popping with a big boom (despite the fact that I’m a home and land owner!) It was clear to me that you can’t sustain an economy by buying and selling homes to each other. The rest of the world must be laughing at us!
They might be laughing, except most of “them” are in the same pot of stew (check out Ben’s last thread from yesterday for some supporting evidence).
“It was clear to me that you can’t sustain an economy by buying and selling homes to each other.”
Exactly. We didn’t do anything other than buying and selling. Where does the money come from? China?
That’s why excess liquidity is also known as stupid money; in other words, stupid money goes to stupid investors who then make stupid investments.
“It was clear to me that you can’t sustain an economy by buying and selling homes to each other.”
Blasphemy!!! Where does it say you can’t do this forever? You Doom & Gloomers are starting to piss me off!! LMFAO
There is something I can not figure out, may be someone knows the answer.
Why is it that almost all builders for that past 10-15 years have home owner association (HOA) in their project (single family detached, I am not talking about conds)?
Why do not the builders build communities without the HOA?
HOA’s are an easy way to convert a developers responsibility for road maint., landscaping and other improvements to the property owners. Governments like it too, because it’s a way for them to transfer the cost of building improvements to property owners without actually having to tax them. HOA’s and POA’s are the biggest scam to ever be invented.
Better yet, the HOA “taxes” can be summarily raised, and no politician ever has to take for “higher taxes.”
“take the heat for…”
Yup, at least where I’m from, the builder can layout sub-spec roads, too narrow, no curbs etc. and the county won’t accept them, legally they’re just common driveways. The builder saves on the cost of the roads, and the county saves on future maintenance. It’s the buyers who sign up for a hosing.
Is there a way for a buyer to know if the neighborhood buildout is “up to standard” without being in the business i.e an engineer? Some sort of local authority stamp of approval or quality certificate or lack of?
It depends on what the “standard” is. In my community even private developments need to be built to the local development standards. We inspect them during construction and sign them off when they’re finished. In most cases however, private developments are allowed to be built to whatever standard the developer wants because the assumption is that they have to fix it if it breaks. In many cases those standards are pretty lax. You should always ask and do your due diligence before getting into one of those deals. Most people don’t understand what their future liabilities may be.
I spent over a year in Orange County Florida trying to find some VACANT LAND that wasn’t in a development with an HOA!
The reason: Orange County *MANDATES* HOAs for new developments. It’s really a racket, but the rationale is it keeps the County from having to spend $$$ on code enforcement.
I will NEVER live under the rule of an HOA. They are private fascist governments. I don’t want to be fined for painting my house the wrong color, flying an American Flag, or decorating my yard (and building a sukkah) in fall for the Jewish holiday of Sukkot…all things I discovered weren’t possible (without a legal fight) in most HOA communities.
Amazing people will actually pay to restrict their rights as individuals. Who would of thought American capitalists would actual pay to be a member of a communistic collective.
It seems to me Americans have embraced collectivism and Russians have embraced individualism. How things change!
Americans have always wanted to be different - as long as everyone was different together.
reuven, I’ve worked extensively with HOA and POA’s over the past ten years. For the most part they are indeed mini facist governments. My biggest problems are with retired people who hijack the HOA because everybody else is too busy or doesn’t care and turns it into their hobby. They patrol the neighborhoods and cite people for any little violation. I’ve seen people fined for having their garage door open, toys in the front yard, uncut grass, a flat tire. That’s one hell of a way to have to live.
I’ve talked about this before here. I never noticed how awful HOAs were until the president of an HOA called me–a day before I was ready to close on a lot–and told me that I wouldn’t be welcome in their community.
I believe that eventually land ruled by an HOA will be worth *less* than unencumbered land. People are going to realize this, and look for older houses, etc, that aren’t in these developments.
Interesting, I was very OPPOSED to Jeb Bush passing a law in Florida making it illegal for HOAs to restrict flying the American Flag. Don’t get me wrong–I love the American Flag and fly it often. However, if someone was stupid enough to enter into a contract that restricted him from flying the flag…he needs to LIVE with that decision. Jeb Bush had no right to interfere with a legal contract between two consenting adults.
If I’m smart enough to seek out property that wasn’t encumbered, I should be able to benefity from my wisdom!
HOA’s are effective as long as real estate keeps appreciating and jobs are plentiful. In other words, as long as homeowners can keep their properties in tip top shape. In the coming recession/depression, you’ll see more owners who can’t meet the neighborhood standard, and more HOA’s that can’t meet their financial reponsibility for street, water and sewer repairs. It’s my belief that those local governments who thought HOA’s were their salvation may end up taking them over as another homeowner bailout. I expect to see more violence in the coming years as HOA dictators clash with their homeowners.
Every neighbourhood in Cuba has a “Committee for the Defense of the Revolution”. It consists of retired people who keep themselves busy by looking out for “antisocial” behaviour by the residents and levying summary punishments or reporting people to the higher authorities.
Now where did they get the idea for the HOA’s from?
smoot hawley 2 boogaloo - this ought to do it -in
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061028/us_china_economy.html?.v=3
Is the symbiosis on its death bed?
“Chinese leaders have said they plan to eventually let their currency trade freely on world markets, but doing so immediately would cause financial turmoil and damage the Chinese economy.”
I think Yahoo has it wrong. If we go after China they stop buying US bonds and the dollar collapses. Paulson has no leverage to enforce or even wish to enforce punitive damages against China.
i always hear the claim about the flood of pirated movies, softwares and copyrighted materials in china have cost thousands of american jobs. but i could not figure out how that occurs. would ramping up production of cds and dvds in china for the chinese market create *thousands* more of american jobs?
I went to dinner with two friends last night and I was surprised when one of them brought up the fact that she heard real estate is crashing really badly in the states. (We are in Toronto). She had no idea that this was a topic I was very familiar with and we had an interesting talk. They were both here for the last real estate crash in Toronto and it was preceeded by a huge overbuilding of condos. In fact, the apartment building my friends both live in was originally built as condos but the crash came while it was under construction so they made it apartments instead. They are building condos like crazy right now but most people don’t think there’s going to be a crash. A couple of friends just bought houses so they wouldn’t be priced out of the market forever. Because everyone wants to live in Toronto and prices will keep going up you know. I feel so sad for them.
What remains of my family live in Toronto. You couldn’t pay me live to live there. Nothing personal.
I’m frantically trying to find the lyrics for the Grouch Marx song: “It’s better to live in Toronto / Than to live in a place you don’t want to”.
I’ll have to dig out the vinyl album it’s on and transcribe the lyrics.
Mr. and Mrs. Klein,
They lived a life so fine,
Until the relatives came.
Uncle und tante Wolf,
Brought over the little Wolfs,
Like wolves they lived up to their name.
One week went by,
Klein started to cry,
It looks like the Wolfs mean to stay.
So he tells his wife one night,
That while they were sleeping tight,
Let’s leave them, and we’ll run away.
Say, it’s better to run to Toronto,
Than to live in a place you don’t want to.
With twenty wolves in front of me,
My house looks like a menagerie.
Imagine the cheek from the tante,
To bring all the Wolfs from Toronto,
And, oy, how they can eat,
At least a pound of meat.
Say, they take what they want, when they want to.
Just think what the bills will amount to.
Every day they are growing more and more.
They eat one meal a day, that’s right,
They start in the morning and finish at night.
It’s going to be a cold cold winter,
And I can’t keep the Wolfs from the door
What’s wrong with Toronto. I think it has a low crime rate and some really nice neighbourhoods.
So the US RE crash is table conversation in Canada. Interesting. Good to hear the word is getting out.
Nobody in Toronto should be laughing about the U.S. housing crash. I live in New York and when I went to Toronto I thought they were far crazier than we are in the U.S. The nubmer of condo towers going up in downtown Toronto is mind-numbing. It’s staggering. They should pay attention to the U.S. real estate crash. It will be a picnic in comparison to what they have coming to them. Good luck, hosers.
Most of the condo construction (or should I say excessive construction) in Toronto is being bought by overseas “investors”. As the previous poster said, there was a severe crash in the early 1990’s and most people remember it.
Toronto may have gone up a bit, but there is no real bubble based on fundamentals. You can buy a semi-detached in a decent neighbourhood 1/2 hour from downtown for C$300,000.
Bubble city is Vancouver on the west coast, where the price/income ratio is almost twice Toronto’s. People in Vancouver know about the US RE crash too, but the local gurus are saying that Vancouver is immune and a lot of people believe it. You see, the Winter Olympics are coming in 2010 so all the rich foreigners are going to buy up the city.
And before anyone on this board knocks Toronto, spend a week there, and then a week in the nearest big US city - Buffalo - and see if you can tell the difference. There is no abandoned housing in Toronto, or in any other Canadian city, isolated “ghost towns” being the only exeption.
yogurt, I grew up in Buffalo and spent summers as a kid on Lake Ontario. I like Toronto a great deal, especially in the last 15 years or so, as it’s become much more international and interesting. But it’s still very sedate. Compared to the bars and nightclubs on Chippewa and Elmwood, nothing in Toronto, even in Yorkville, can compare. Buffalo’s philharmonic is world class, and no art collection in Canada compares with the Albright-Knox. Buffalo has several Frank LLoyd Wrights, and acres of 19th century mansions.
And the Sabres make the Leafs look like amateurs. Agreed, the city is far more rough and tumble than Toronto, and significantly smaller. That said, I enjoy them both, but for very different reasons.
As the North American housing market slows, Norbord Inc. (TSX: NBD) is warning that its drop in third-quarter profit reflects “a very difficult downturn ahead” for the industry.
Another housing related industry slows to to crawl.
I love this ad, it basically says if we can dupe a lender into giving us $50 grand back at closing (25% of purcase price), we’ll take your home off your hands. Chuckle
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/225707210.html
No need to dupe any lenders. They are complicit in the fraudulent deals to the extent they have abandoned due diligence in loan approvals.
From Craigslist SD.
The asking price is now $36K less than the purchase price of $735K in January 2005.
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/226800761.html
The Cities of Folsom and El Dorado Hills, which are part of greater geoographical area of Sacramento California contain a large amount of ultramafic rock. What is interesting about ultramafic rock is it is the source of naturlly occurring asbestos. University of California Davis did a study of naturally occurring asbestos and came to this conclusion.
Laurel Beckett, professor and vice chair of the UC Davis Department of Public Health Sciences and a study co-author, said the findings are important. “We showed that breathing asbestos in your community is not magically different from breathing asbestos in an industrial setting. It would have been a surprise to find otherwise.”
The researchers found that the risk of developing malignant mesothelioma was directly related to residential proximity to a source of ultramafic rock. Specifically, the odds of having mesothelioma fell by 6.3 percent for every 10 kilometers (about 6.2 miles) farther a person lived from the nearest asbestos source.
Another study of deceased dog that lived in El Dorado Hills had this finding.
A dog residing in a home built on exposed tremolite asbestos deposits in an area of NOA (El Dorado, California [see map] ) from age 1 to 9 years died in 2003, at age 13 years, and his lungs were examined using light microscopy and electron microscopy. The results confirmed extremely high concentrations of asbestos fibers in his lungs [see preliminary figure]. [Mr. Terry Trent’s encouragement and assistance with this investigation has been greatly appreciated, and Bryan Burnett has done much additional SEM/EDS analysis.
I think these two Cities are sitting on a ticking time bomb. Has anybody experienced naturally occurring asbestos in their area?
David,
Interesting you mention that. My husband and I were discussing asbestos and radon just today. It brings up an interesting point. I wonder how difficult it would be to get a geologist (or??) to take soil & air samples to determine if there are any carcinogenic substances. I’d like to get this done before buying a piece of land on which to build a small, functional, energy-efficient house.
2006-10-27 20:41:55
U.S. Data Fluke Exaggerated Growth, Will Be Reversed (Update3)
By Carlos Torres
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — An unexpected increase in auto production last quarter was a statistical fluke that will be reversed, making current U.S. economic growth even weaker, according to a former Commerce Department economist.
Last quarter’s annualized 26 percent increase in motor vehicle production shocked Joe Carson, now director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. Without the gain, the economy would have grown at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, not the 1.6 percent the Commerce Department reported today.
.9%!!!!!!!!!
Holy shiite!!! .9%!!I knew it!! Those guys in the government are trying their best to cook the books for the elections. Next we will hear “it was an honest mistake, blah, blah, blah”. If 0.9% is really the confirmed/accepted number the market will tank on Monday!!!
Here’s the link to one of the articles on Bloomberg. Has the US picked up on it or as usual do we have to rely on the foreign press to blow the lid on the Bushies. Every Bear that has some skin in the game better start shouting!!!!!!
http://tinyurl.com/y6mprf
Outcroppings of ultramafic rock in the cities of Folsom and El Dorado Hills can be seen everywhere. Next to shopping malls, homes, and schools. I bet the local prison has some nice exposure too.
A lot of development has gone on these areas, I wonder of the developers used the necessary protection to ensure the safety of their employees. They had to grade and move soil around in order to build. Anybody want to take a stab at that one? Personally I won’t even set foot in these areas anymore. My God children dig up dirt all the time, that is what kids do. Who in their right mind would build houses there and sell them to families.
Kind of reminds me of the movie ‘Poltergeist’.
New York Post:
TREASURY’S PAULSON PLAYS WITH THE PLUNGE PROTECTORS
http://tinyurl.com/ykv4eq
“Since taking the reins in July, the Wall Street veteran has reinvigorated the President’s Working Group on Financial markets, which had languished.” The article went on to say that before Paulson’s arrival, the group met every few months, and sometimes only once a quarter. Now Paulson is insisting that it meet every six weeks.”
my Plunge Protectors are Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They’re patiently sitting on the world’s largest cash horde, $40 billion. Huge earnings boost for 2006 thanks to skyrocketing storm insurance rates.
i thought microsoft is the one sitting on the world’s largest cash horde.
Is Crudele a reputable source of information?
Crudele is a perma-bear. He was telling people to get out of the market in the early 1990’s when the DJIA was 3,000. He basically lost all credibility on Wall Street, but who knows? Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
I wasn’t asking about his track record in forecasting stock price movements. Anyone looking at the stock market in the early 1990s could have easily underestimated the fact that the 1990s were going to turn out like the 1920s did (did you ever hear of the Roaring ’20s, or a recently-published book called the Roaring ’90s which notes the parallels?). I was interested in knowing whether he actually knows something interesting about the Working Group, or if he is just conjecturing?
“Is Crudele a reputable source of information?”
Sorry for trying to help you out. You did not specify what type of information you were looking for.
I would appreciate information about shorting homebuilders stocks. I am certain these stocks will decline substantially in the future. I have very little experience in shorting but do realize there are risks involved. Prices can go up despite lousy fundamentals and you have to put more money up to cover your position. I would appreciate input from others who may be shorting these stocks and is more knowledgabe and experienced in this area. Thanks.
It may be an opportune time to short HBs this week. The election is next week. The incentive to force HBs higher should be less after the election and may end just before. So this week might be just about right. The HBs have been forced significantly upward even in the face of seriously bad news. They are ripe for the picking.
Be sure to maintain a substantial amount of liquidity when you short. The risk of a squeeze is high and you must be able to ride them out as they occur, assuming you are shorting for the long term as I am.
It is best to spread your shorts around rather than concentrate on just one HB. They drop at different times for different reasons.
I would also add that many who are shorting HBs have been getting slaughtered these past few months (including myself). You should not do this with money you intend to keep. Consider it a gamble (which it really is) — it is SPENDING money, not “investment” money, definitely NOT money needed for retirement, school expenses, emergency funds, buying a home, etc.
Just MHO.
Here is something interesting from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, Q1 2006, that may have been posted here already: Your House Just Doubled In Value?
http://tinyurl.com/ycxsxn
Page two has a graph (Figure 1) of the inflation adjusted returns of housing since 1975.
The data was compiled by an econimist from the Philadelpia Fed and an assistant professor of economics and finance from the Zicklin school of business, Baruch college in NYC.
This is a blog about the bubble in house prices. I understand that those who frequent this site have a clear understanding of what has happened over the last few years in the housing market.
What I don’t understand are the people on this blog that express joy at the slightest hint of problems in the economy. Ok, maybe they want to say they were right. But why else? A bad economy will affect people that have the least more than it will affect anyone that has the time to spend all day reading this blog.
Not everyone that has something in this country inherited their position. Many people took risks, started businesses, paid their way through school, or learned a trade and became really good at it. Others sat at their computers being pissed off that others were doing things and making it work.
Someone on this blog actually resonded with “bwahahahaha economy growth dropped to 1.6%” Jeez, do you really think that will affect the affluent people you bitterly envy and despise? It will affect the small business owner, the workers, the people that have tried hard to lift themselves in this economy. The very rich will make out like bandits. Mr. bwahahahah will still be at its computer searching google keywords “bad news” while some lose all they have worked for.
Bwahahahaha is what I say when the Chargers beat the Raiders… again. For those of you that don’t understand-thats a refernce to football.
Bwahahahah is not for when people are faced with being unable to support their family because of idiot real estate pros.
As some of you demean or ridicule people that are making mstakes with their business decisions, keep in mind that others that had nothing to do with housing are going to be affected… including some of you.
Reevaluate your joy.
Best Wishes
Lighten up Francis!
There may be a misunderstanding. Perhaps some of us do not wish ill for others, but do wish for interest rates to go up. While my grasp of economics is weak, it seems to me this is more likely if the economy cools.
What I don’t understand are the people on this blog that express joy at the slightest hint of problems in the economy.
You really don’t have a clue, do you?
Did you ever see “Weekend at Bernie’s”? The economy is (and has been) Bernie, and the guys toting him around and propping him up are the politicians, Fed governors, and Wall Street. Everyone else in the movie represents the American public, blissfully unaware that Bernie’s long dead.
This country has been sold down the river, and we’re here simply trying to warn everyone so that they might save themselves. In that light, please pardon us if we cheer the fact that the truth is finally coming to light.
Well said, TJ!
Of course I have a clue. No need to get personal.
This blog does a great job getting the word out. Anyone could learn here or atleast be directed to where they can find good information on their own.
Housing will come back to where it should be. That will affect the economy in a big way. That is clear. The less damage it inflicts, the better it will be for people. Regardless of which party of crooks is running the gvmt.
Its hard for people and will get worse. No need to be giddy.
Its hard for people and will get worse.
That’s right — we’re headed into a full-on depression that’ll make ‘29 look like a picnic.
BTW, my “clueless” remark pertained only to your understanding the psychology at work on the blog. Nobody here is responsible for the fix we’re in; however, virtually all of us have have been publicly ridiculed for stating the emperor has no clothes. Now that realization is dawning on the masses, we can’t help but claim a little “we told you so”. We’re not happy about it, but hey, we’re human, and the best part of being human is making light of bad situations. Ever watch MASH?
In a recession wealth is returned to its rightful owners.
one word: schadenfreude