October 31, 2006

“Florida’s Boom Winds Down To It’s Apparent End”

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “As Florida’s real estate boom winds down to its apparent end, Dade City has realized only a tiny fraction of the development seen in areas like Wesley Chapel and Land O’Lakes. At one time, city officials talked of plans to control the growth they saw ahead. Turns out they don’t quite need them.”

“Even the ever-expanding Wal-Mart noticed. This month, company officials announced that they would delay building the city’s first Wal-Mart Supercenter. They want to see more ‘maturation’ in the local market before building the new store.”

“In Dade City, it seems, the development wave has receded before it ever began. When officials for Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest retailer, scope out sites for new stores, they look at several factors. That last factor is based not on projected housing starts but on actual new construction.”

“‘We’re only going to build stores once the homes already exist,’ said Eric Brewer, Wal-Mart’s senior manager for public affairs. ‘Certainly in a place like Florida, you don’t want to be getting in a position where retail construction gets ahead of residential construction.’”

“Earlier this year, Dade City officials approved 2,000 new homes and received applications for 2,500 more. Ten months later, developers still have approval to build the same number of homes but are apparently electing to do so on a more conservative time line. ‘Instead of having 2,500 in two years, because of the slowdown in the real estate market, it will probably be over a period of five years,’ said Karla Owens, the city attorney and planner.”

“She’s confident the neighborhoods will be built, eventually. Why? Because the property has changed hands. ‘I just find it hard to believe that large tracts are going to stay vacant forever,’ she said.”

“The housing slowdown put a lid on more than home prices. Hotel prices, which had been driven by swarms of beach luxury condo/hotel developers, have stabilized at about $79,000 a room across the Tampa Bay market. That’s the same as a year ago, according to Marcus & Millichap.”

“‘The flippers are pretty much gone from the beaches,’ said Tony DeGeorge, a Clearwater hotel broker.”

From Tampa Bay Online. “Developer Reynold Glanz now wants to turn the former Cone Ranch into one of the biggest residential developments in north Manatee, just a few miles south of Hillsborough County. The California developer filed plans last week for a 1,999-home project.”

“Glanz said it is too early to start pricing homes, especially as sales prices continue to drop throughout the area.”

The Orlando Business Journal. “For the Central Florida housing market, Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division, says the pace of new housing starts slowed during the third quarter. The Orlando metropolitan statistical area of Orange, Lake, Osceola and Seminole counties posted 6,853 single-family starts in the third quarter, a decline of 32.4 percent compared with 10,142 units a year ago.”

“Crocco says the quarterly starts declined to a level comparable to the summer of 2003.”

“Single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant lots and model homes, totaled 22,794 units at the end of the third quarter, an 8.5-month supply. The majority of the unit increase is in the finished vacant category, which rose 123.2 percent from 3,664 units last year to 8,179 units this year, Crocco says.”

“During the third quarter, 11,197 lots were delivered to the Orlando market compared with 10,316 in third-quarter 2005. Vacant developed lot inventory was 50,760 units, up 29.6 percent compared with 39,168 lots last year. Crocco notes that based on the annual starts rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 19.1-month supply.”

“He notes many potential buyers must first sell their existing home before buying another. Because of this pressure on sellers and the continuing introduction of new projects to the market, Crocco says it is likely that the supply of new housing will remain inflated for at least the short-term.”

“Mike Inselmann, president of Metrostudy, there are reasons to be somewhat optimistic that the bottom of the cycle in the housing sector will occur in the next six months. ‘Cutbacks in new production, aggressive incentives by sellers, the exit of the majority of investors and the fundamental demographic support are positive indicators for a housing turnaround by mid-2007,’ Inselmann says.”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Robert Stroh at the University of Florida, said the full economic impacts of Save Our Homes have yet to hit the state.”

“‘This could affect our population in the future,’ Stroh said. ‘Some people who thought about retiring here are probably having second thoughts: What are your taxes here? The answer to that is going to change dramatically. We’ve already got a problem.’”

“Mohammed Battla knew that he would face a larger tax bill when he moved to a 6,100-square-foot home overlooking Lake Buck in the Lake Nona golf community. Still the shock of going from a few thousand dollars in property taxes to paying more than $35,000 was jarring.”

“‘I just saw my property-tax bill and about had a heart attack,’ Battla said.”




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69 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-10-31 08:48:13

‘Hidden Hills Equestrian Center in Parrish will face foreclosure after an auction Monday failed to bring the minimum needed to pay Brasota Mortgage and other creditors. The auctioneer also tried to sell the property in its entirety. The offer brought no bids.’

‘Lennar Homes has two furnished estate home models open at Bella Terra. Lennar Homes includes the ‘Everything’s Included’ package of upgrades without extra cost to the buyer.’

Comment by az_lender
2006-10-31 09:53:55

Very interesting about the equestrian center. A few weeks ago I was at an equestrian 3-day event at the Radnor Hunt Club in the fashionable burbs near West Chester PA. And I was thinking, “Wow, here is the only bunch of people so rich they aren’t even thinking about the housing bubble.” Apparently they should be thinking…

 
 
Comment by John Law
2006-10-31 08:52:03

“Mohammed Battla knew that he would face a larger tax bill when he moved to a 6,100-square-foot home overlooking Lake Buck in the Lake Nona golf community. Still the shock of going from a few thousand dollars in property taxes to paying more than $35,000 was jarring.”

and you’ll probably have to pay 5 figures every year. year after years. that’s $525,000 in taxes over 15 years if the tax bill stays the same.

how could he not figure out taxes before he moved in? now these mcmansionites will find out if their big ego really needs 6,100.

I wonder if he’s figured out home insurance yet? I’m sure those he won’t be paying more for those either!

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-10-31 08:59:15

From the OS article:

‘ Buyers can be hit unawares that their tax bills may double, triple or quadruple the year after they purchase a house. Lawmakers attempted to prepare buyers for the tax-bill surprise by passing legislation in 2004 that called on sellers to disclose that property taxes may change because of ‘reassessments.’ But new assessments can be minor compared with the sticker shock that buyers encounter when they face a full, market-value tax bill on a house that had been protected by Save Our Homes under the previous owner.’

Comment by John Law
2006-10-31 09:02:05

“Florida is getting to be such an expensive place to live, almost like California.”

florida is not going to see all those equity rich boomers if florida becomes an expensive place to live. we already see people moving from florida to tenn and south carolina.

Comment by John in GA (was John in VA)
2006-10-31 10:19:28

You’re right. We’re seeing it in GA as well. One of Florida’s biggest draws for seniors was that it was cheap and therefore ideal for retirees on fixed incomes. Now it’s just a very expensive, flat, muggy place with hurricanes and outrageous insurance premiums. Most boomers have saved relatively little for retirement and the pension payments they were counting on are disappearing (there are several formerly retired Delta pilots in my neighborhood). Boomers need inexpensive, low-maintenance places to live, not millioin-dollar beach condos within walking distance of high-end luxury shops.

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Comment by DinOR
2006-10-31 10:47:26

John in GA,

I have to tread carefully here (many of my clients are either retired or current Delta employees) but you’re absolutely right! Many of the folks that were “original retirees” from the depression era (previous to that we didn’t really have pensions or soc. security) lived in single wides! Many of these people were CEO’s, bank presidents and well paid mgr’s. They were just fine with it. Imagine builder’s delight when they discovered that they could sell keeping up w/the Jonses’ even into retirement! Me? I’m “hoping” to have my “secret lair” in an undisclosed location just outside of Las Vegas complete w/”bat-pole”!

The whole idea of retirement is to scale back one’s obligations (or am I really that out of touch?)

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-10-31 11:02:39

No, DinOR, you are not that out of touch and I get pretty tired of reading these crazy boomer myths. I know many boomers who have saved and invested and who try to live as cheaply as possible and I’m trying to figure out which prodigal boomers they are talking about, because I don’t know any.

 
Comment by DinOR
2006-10-31 11:11:41

palmetto,

Just a few weeks ago CNBC had a round table discussion about all of the boomer myths floating around out there and by the end of the hour long show it was pretty clear that most if not all were either misleading or simply untrue! Since I was in the service I always had very modest ambitions for retirement and while my income “has” grown I thought it prudent to keep those plans humble. I built my retirement home before I had a primary home, in the Philippines (which I love btw) and always planned on living on a modest income. If it works out for the better, great! I’d rather have that extra liquidity to travel or afford to be able to volunteer my time vice being a Walmart greeter. That’s just me though.

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-10-31 11:33:10

DinOR, I share that philosophy of living modestly. I’ve found it to be rather fun and less stressful and it is the reason I left the Northeast in the first place. Thank God I learned my lesson early on. Experience can be a harsh teacher, but you never forget the lessons learned. I have, however, been rather disturbed lately by the vituperation of the Gen Xers toward the boomers, not based on fact but on idiot statements like “Bush is a Boomer”. I happened onto a thread on Patrick.net and it was pretty nasty. On the other hand, I have observed that Gen Yers tend to like the boomers, so I suppose these affinities/antagonisms skip generations.

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-10-31 11:34:58

PS, DinOR, I’ve also observed that those in the service (generally speaking) seem to be a lot more conservative about spending, no matter what generation. Must be the discipline.

 
Comment by implosion
2006-10-31 18:30:13

I’m with you guys. Look at the stats below - major disconnect.

Doesn’t look good for those basing their plans on thinking this group is a bunch of cash cows. Of course many think that only the above average will come to their area.

I pulled the following out of this msn money article today by Liz Pulliam Weston.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/RetirementandWills/CreateaPlan/8MoneyMovesYouMustMakeAt50.aspx

Note this is from 2004. This would be Boomers getting ready to retire in a few years. That median net worth includes the house, which would likely show a larger amount now. The interesting statement in the article is, “Most are homeowners, and the recent boom years have added nicely to the typical 50-something’s net worth.” I read that to mean a lot of their net worth is tied up in their house. I’m sure that % with a traditional pension figure is not as large as many think.

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT: AGES 50-59
Median household income
$60,586
Median net worth
$182,300
Percent with home equity
80.70%
Percent with credit card debt
50.30%
Median amount owed on cards
$2,700
Percent with traditional pensions
38.10%
Percent with minor children
40.30%

Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 2004

 
 
 
Comment by droog
2006-10-31 09:40:00

I am surprised how hard it is for people here in Florida to figure out what 2% of their purchase price is so they can estimate their taxes. These are probably the same people who can’t calculate a 15% tip.

Comment by packman
2006-10-31 09:56:05

They need “The Wizard”:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oz-7000_open.jpg

“Dad - it’s got other functions!!!”

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Comment by Ken Best
2006-11-01 11:47:13

What has happened to PITI ? Sue the realtors of loan officers
who failed to disclose.

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Comment by Been There
2006-10-31 09:45:11

I personally know that they never discolosed this in the past. When I was a first time buyer in FL in 2000, I tried to make sure I checked into everything. About the only thing I remember being told about property taxes was to make sure I went down to the tax office to fill out the paperwork for the homestead exemption. I was a bit surprised when my taxes jumped the 2nd year I was in the house. I had no clue that the first year on a new house your taxes were just for the land. It all made sense after the fact. Thankfully my salary was going up and it wasn’t that hard for me to handle. I know several friends found themselves in financial straits when they got clobbered after getting into the market in 2003-2004.

I also remember seeing the amount I was paying yearly in property taxes disclosed when sold and closed on the house in Florida in 2005. I wonder how the new owners are coping with the taxes going from 3k to 9k a year on top of overpaying for the place.

Comment by John Law
2006-10-31 09:58:51

” I wonder how the new owners are coping with the taxes going from 3k to 9k a year on top of overpaying for the place.”

the gov’t is always on someone for undisclosed fees, how can they not disclose taxes somewhere?

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Comment by Been There
2006-10-31 11:43:43

They disclosed what the taxes were at the current moment. If you have the homestead exemption and pay 3k in taxes that’s what’s reported. Nowhere did they tell you that your taxes will skyrocket due to the higher selling price.

As a first time buyer and new resident to Florida I was clueless about the property tax situation there as I suspect are lots of buyers who come from out of state. I also saw a couple of people get themselves into financial trouble.

Around 2002-2003, I considered downsizing and buying a place closer to work but had learned what would happen if I sold and bought at inflated prices. There was no way to lower my monthly payment even if I downsized because property taxes would jump through the roof on the new place.

I finally decided to get out of FL all together.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-10-31 09:00:16

Imagine borrowing a bunch of money to buy a closed-end mutual fund trading at 50% above net asset value and then just when you think to yourself, oops, maybe this mutual fund has lost its momentum, you suddenly discover that it also has management fees and expenses amounting to 4-5% per year. Heart attack central!

Comment by NoDak
2006-10-31 09:41:05

Another example is buying a mutual fund near the end of the year that has had a lot of turnover and capital gains. You will get a 1099 for your share of the gains in which you may not have participated at all. Then imagine the fund value going down having just had to pay taxes on that acquired gain. The upside is that if you sell you can deduct the real loss!

Comment by az_lender
2006-10-31 09:56:58

Unlike the loss on the sale of your home, still undeductable.

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Comment by DinOR
2006-10-31 10:55:38

Paul in Jax,

Well, I don’t mind paying a bit above NAV if I see ample momentum but often you can find another w/similar holdings trading at a discount. You just gotta look! Actually though this is a good example and makes perfect sense. Even out in Oregon (yes we’re part of the U.S) seldom do you see taxes mentioned in ANY sales literature! What game are we playing here? Oh……. I get it. If you have to ask what the taxes are then you can’t afford to live here? Pffft. Let me tell what you can do with your “upscale home” AND mystery tax bill Mr. Realt-whore………..

 
 
Comment by holgs
2006-10-31 13:16:37

Wow, we live in a simple apt in a downtown area overlooking a park. The apt is probably much smaller than this guy’s house, but our total rent per year is 1/3 what this guy pays just in taxes! Then again, rent is just “throwing your money away!”

 
Comment by diogenes
2006-10-31 16:59:50

What’s really going to give him apoplexy is the mortgage re-set, from the 1% teaser rate to a full 8% fixed in a couple of years hence.

 
 
Comment by chicote
2006-10-31 08:59:46

His father’s house in Windermere is worth basically the same amount — about $2 million — but the junior Battla pays about three times as much in taxes because he just bought his house, and his father has had his since before Save Our Homes went into effect.

Stop your whining, Mohammed. You bought a $2 million house. You should consider yourself lucky that the rate is only 1.75%.

Comment by badger boy
2006-10-31 09:13:03

in most of upstate ny, total property tax rate is roughly 3% ($30 per $1K full value assessed).

and don’t even get me started on the outrageous assessments…

Comment by TG in Norfolk, VA
2006-10-31 14:21:11

In most of upstate NY (i.e., Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, etc…), you can buy very nice homes for $100K-$150K. So the tax rate is higher. And the local governments there have to find some way to pay the exhorbitant costs of constant snow removal throughout the 6 months of winter up there!

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-10-31 09:52:01

But still, $35k/year for a house he ‘owns’?

Comment by badger boy
2006-10-31 10:06:11

It’s funny. I grew up on a family farm that was paid off. My grandfather always said “if you think we own the farm, just don’t pay the property taxes for awhile. then, you’ll see who REALLY owns it.”

 
Comment by chicote
2006-10-31 11:01:39

It’s not hard to multiply the sales price of a property by the tax rate to determine what your bill is going to be. Why was it a surprise to this guy?

 
 
 
Comment by Robert Coté
2006-10-31 09:01:02

I’ve been playing a private game that it’s time to share with the group. When I read a new headline that Ben has chosen I recall the old TV program, “Leave It to Beaver.” In that show Beavers older wiser brother always ends up listening to the latest tale of mishap and would invariably reply to Theodore (Beaver): “Gee Beeve, ya think?”

Try it:
“Florida’s Boom Winds Down To It’s Apprent End”
“Gee Beave, ya think?”

“A Perception That There’s Going To Be Better Deals”
“Gee Beave, ya think?”

“This Market Is Going South”: California
“Gee Beave, ya think?”

Comment by DinOR
2006-10-31 10:59:09

Robert C,

Good to see back btw, I’m sure you were “detained elsewhere”!

You forgot the all time classic line!

Wally, where are your father and the “Beav”?

Oh mom, they’re out in the garage packing fudge!

Comment by Robert Coté
2006-10-31 12:56:02

June: “Ward, don’t you think you were a little hard on the beaver last night?”

Skipper & Gilligan, Granpa & Herman, Pinky & The Brain, Ren & Stimpy…

 
Comment by bellevue_blogger
2006-10-31 14:05:25

I’m glad to see you back, too. Your insights are always especially……..insightful.

 
 
 
Comment by David In JAX
2006-10-31 09:05:15

Property taxes and insurance are skyrocketing on non-homesteaded properties in Florida. It’s going to kill the second home market / vacation home market which is going to put further pressure on already dropping home prices.

Comment by John Law
2006-10-31 09:21:00

florida second homes/vacation homes for everyone.

 
Comment by Mike_in_FL
2006-10-31 12:00:44

53% YOY decline in single family homes in my metro (greater WPB/Boca Raton). I’m working on a nice piece about just how many homes are for sale in my neighborhood. Even I was surprised at the number/percentage (about 15% to 20% based on what I’m hearing). Yikes. Thankfully I don’t have to sell and I bought with a 30-year fixed non-Frankenstein Financing mortgage (20% down)

http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/

 
 
Comment by packman
2006-10-31 09:10:46

“She’s confident the neighborhoods will be built, eventually. Why? Because the property has changed hands. ‘I just find it hard to believe that large tracts are going to stay vacant forever,’ she said.”

So we’re she has very large… tracts of land?

Comment by packman
2006-10-31 09:12:16

“we’re saying” I mean.

Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2006-10-31 10:11:35

That was from the the King of the Swamp to his son in MP and the Holy Grail, right?

Comment by packman
2006-10-31 10:34:16

Yep

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Comment by Beachbaby
2006-10-31 09:14:50

What’s going on in Monroe County, the Flordia Keys? Any bargains yet? Very interested in Islamorada and Key Colony Beach. From what I can see on Realtor.com, prices are still ridiculously high. We sold our waterfront Islamorada condo in ‘01 planning to buy back in a few years later, but as you know, prices, insurance and taxes went crazy.

Comment by North GA Dave
2006-10-31 09:41:54

There are people leaving the Keys already, but mostly renters. Especially those displaced by condo conversions, which took off the last few years. The schools have seen declining enrollment. It does not look like homeonwers are leaving in droves, in a panic, or dropping prices at this point. If there is a drop there, it will likely hit Key Largo first. There is a higher % of residents there who are normal working people, who commute to Miami.

Most of the middle and lower Keys owners are second homes, or people “off the social grid” to some extent anyway.

One major factor in keeping the Keys from “busting” too far, is ROGO, (Rate Of Growth Ordinance) which limits new construction. For those not familiar, vacant land accumulates points over the years until enough points are gained to allow a building permit.

There are still more people that want a house there, than there are houses. This may never change, as it is a unique place. It appears that Monroe County has managed the HO insurance crisis a little, getting the markets to provide rates that were not as ridiculous.

Still, you could visit the Keys 20 days every month, stay at a $200 a night hotel, and still spend less than buying a “cheap” Keys condo, which would be $400K easy, plus condo fees, ins., etc.

Comment by Myamuh Native
2006-10-31 11:57:59

I have had several conversations with friends and family in the Keys recently.
I have heard of 100k price drops in Big Pine Key (at a minimum) and the properties are just sitting there.
A friend visited her parents in the Middle Keys and noticed with glee that a nearby home priced last year at 1.6 mil has been reduced to 795k. And still it sits unsold.
The Keys are not a pretty picture these days but they still have a long way to go down.

 
Comment by Tom
2006-10-31 14:39:36

Wait till they get a Monster storm that hits the keys and there will be a LOT of vacant land.

 
Comment by tampaesq
2006-10-31 14:43:52

I love the Keys, but I can’t see buying there. You can get fantastic hotel rates in the off season–I just got back from Tranquility Bay on Marathon, and we paid a pittance for a two-bedroom beach-facing condo. And you don’t have to worry about taxes, insurance, or maintenance.

 
 
 
Comment by HonestAppraiser
2006-10-31 09:26:50

Where ponch pitching his great deal @ lehigh acres

 
Comment by Bill
2006-10-31 09:27:35

The optimists state that the “investors” (including speculators and flippers) are gone. Are they really gone, or are they now just sellers, instead of being buyers? This is a very important point. If a large proportion of the “investors” are still waiting to sell their “investments,” the negative impact of speculation is still to come. Data on the percentage of home owned by “nonoccupants” would be very helpful in understanding how quickly housing markets can recover. My impression from reading this blog is that many properties are owned by speculators who are losing money at a fast rate even if they have renters. They will try (or try harder) to sell when it becomes apparent that home prices and sales are going down for the indefinite future and will not recover during 2007.

Comment by Mike_in_FL
2006-10-31 12:15:07

Tough to say how many past speculators are still bagholders, or how many have moved on. What I do know is that last year, 40% of the existing homes purchased were either vacation homes or investment homes, per the National Association of Realtors. That was the highest percentage of non-owner-occupant purchases ever. I also know from the Census Bureau that the home vacancy rate is now the highest in history (2.5% in Q3 … up from 2.2% in Q2 — data goes back to 1956. On a unit basis, that’s 16.6 million)

Data here:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/histtab2.html

Definition of a vacancy, per Census:
Vacant Housing Units. A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless its occupants are only temporarily absent. In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere. New units not yet occupied are classified as vacant housing units if construction has reached a point where all exterior windows and doors are installed and final usable floors are in place. Vacant units are excluded if they are exposed to the elements, that is, if the roof, walls, windows, or doors no longer protect the interior from the elements, or if there is positive evidence (such as a sign on the house or block) that the unit is to be demolished or is condemned. Also excluded are quarters being used entirely for nonresidential purposes, such as a store or an office, or quarters used for the storage of business supplies or inventory, machinery, or agricultural products. Vacant sleeping rooms in lodging houses, transient accommodations, barracks, and other quarters not defined as housing units are not included in the statistics in this report. (See section on “Housing Unit.”)

Mike
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/

 
 
Comment by mikey
2006-10-31 09:40:09

…and that Sucking Sound is the entire State of Florida becomes one giant financial SINKHOLE.

 
Comment by ACCROYER
2006-10-31 09:41:51

For the first time here in Tualatin Oregon, I have seen priced reduced signs on the same block. There are three houses for sale about a 1/4 mile apart and all have priced reduced on them.

Comment by audet
2006-10-31 10:58:54

Yup - I’m with you in Tualatin and I see the same thing. Stuff still sells though. i’m watching the new cosntruction around town too to see how quickly it sells. Not seeing as many SOLD signs on lots as I used to see all the time.

Problem is my wife just wants to buy and sees these as an opportunity. ARRGH!!! Patience is a virtue right?

There is hope - she saw the foreclosure report from Colo. on the news this weekend and played it again online. She won’t read here but maybe if she sees enough MSM reports, she’ll come around before the lease is up next summer.

Have you noticed rents increasing? I’ve noticed asking rents up but wonder if they are getting those prices? I’d like to think it is FB’s trying to cover a mortgage.

 
 
Comment by the_economist
2006-10-31 09:44:16

“Mike Inselmann, president of Metrostudy, there are reasons to be somewhat optimistic that the bottom of the cycle in the housing sector will occur in the next six months. ‘Cutbacks in new production, aggressive incentives by sellers, the exit of the majority of investors and the fundamental demographic support are positive indicators for a housing turnaround by mid-2007,’ Inselmann says.”

Three of these reasons support an extended time for a rebound.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2006-10-31 10:04:28

When I read that Tampa Tribune article about the 1,999 house North Manatee development, the first thing that came into my head was that the developer had to have been motivated by the Prince song. That’s not an accidental number; it’s a marketing gimmick.

I was dreamin’ when I wrote this
Forgive me if it goes astray.
But when I woke up this morning
Coulda sworn it was judgment day.

Two thousand zero zero party over … out of time. Maybe the development will be named “When Doves Cry.”

Comment by Houstonstan
2006-10-31 10:13:46

Tonight I’m going to party like it’s 1929…

Comment by jim A
2006-10-31 11:30:46

yeah, but by 1929 the Florida property boom had already gone bust.

 
 
Comment by Notorious D.A.P.
2006-10-31 10:42:23

The sky was all purple
There were people runnin’ everywhere……
Tryin’ to run from the destruction
You know I didn’t even care……..

Actually, “Let’s Go Crazy” and “Delerious” work as well.

Comment by Notorious D.A.P.
2006-10-31 10:44:58

Make that “Dilerious”……..sorry for the typo.

 
 
Comment by Moman
2006-10-31 11:21:45

TBO said “that development will be a great commute for southern Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.”

Sure, if you are willing to pay $2 a day in tolls and drive 45 minutes each way to downtown St. Pete for the opportunity to live in the middle of nowhere and be willing to drive 2 hours for the days in the winter when the Skyway is closed due to fog.

It’s also a great move for someone with excess cash to burn driving a SUV to downtown Tampa and back each day at a tune of 90 minutes each way (and approx 60 miles or $10 in gas each way). I guess the owners could get a job working at the Sonny’s in Bradenton or the CVS in Sun City Center, but I bet the retirees have a lock on those jobs. Brandon has no commerce - there’s a reason it’s the bedroom community for those who work in downtown Tampa.

 
 
Comment by ronin
2006-10-31 10:21:41

‘Cutbacks in new production, aggressive incentives by sellers, the exit of the majority of investors and the fundamental demographic support are positive indicators for a housing turnaround by mid-2007,’

No new places being built, sellers conceding quite a bit, a good proportion of the buyers not buying, and the ‘fundamental demographic support’ will turn things around.

It’s clear that his real wild card is the magical ‘fundamental demographic support.’

 
Comment by palmetto
2006-10-31 10:59:16

Dade City just can’t seem to catch a break, although I can assure you the prices have risen there just like everywhere else and haven’t quite come down yet. It’s actually a pretty area, with rolling hills (some dipsticks claim, with pompous authority, that Florida is flat when they’ve never ventured north of Orlampa) and the Withlacoochee River close by. The town has a certain Old Florida charm. But, it is in Pasco County and it is practically impossible to get insurance there, unless you pay a fortune to Citizen’s, the state insurer, because something like 80% of sinkhole claims in Florida come from Pasco County. Which is why development just shriveled up there, it’s a complete loser for builders, especially when they can’t even sell what they’ve got. I’m kind of glad Dade City didn’t develop much, but I know some people up there who are pretty pissed they didn’t get the appreciation of property during the boom.

Comment by Moman
2006-10-31 11:16:00

I don’t see the need for a Wal-Mart supercenter in Dade City. The Zephyrhills store is 6 miles south of the present small Wal-Mart. Dade City does have an alluring charm to it but it’s too far to be considered a serious exurb of Tampa unless one works at USF or somewhere in the northeast quadrant.

The road between north 75 and the downtown sqaure (not 52) is a BEAUTIFUL drive with tons of hills. Anyone who doesn’t believe Florida has hills should check it out.

Comment by palmetto
2006-10-31 11:39:22

Hey, Moman, good to see ya! You are right about the Dade City commute, I drove it one day just to see what it would be like to drive to downtown Tampa during rush hour. Not pretty. But, from reading this blog, it would seem there are those in the exurbs of LA or Atlanta to whom the commute would seem like a piece of cake.

Comment by Moman
2006-10-31 13:13:19

Likewise. The commute isn’t much different from the proposed Parrish (Manatee Co) development. What are those people thinking?

I might be game if it was a nice area, but Parrish? Nothing there except farms and trailers.

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Comment by ragerunner
2006-10-31 11:14:09

‘Instead of having 2,500 in two years, because of the slowdown in the real estate market, it will probably be over a period of five years,’ said Karla Owens, the city attorney and planner.”

“She’s confident the neighborhoods will be built, eventually. Why? Because the property has changed hands. ‘I just find it hard to believe that large tracts are going to stay vacant forever,’ she said.”

I work in the planning field an I can tell you that I have never heard of a ‘city attorney and planner’. She is no more qualified to be a planner than a planner is qualified to be an attorney. With that said, I am sure since the attorney has said the projects will be fine, all will be well. The more I read this blog the more stupid the news reports seem to be. Why didn’t they ask her what data supports her opinion that the projects will be built in the next five year (or 100 years). She would have nothing to say but, I don’t know, but I hope.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-10-31 11:26:14

The people in the news are use to not being asked hard questions so it ends up being a opportunity to spin ones hidden agenda or PR .

 
Comment by Eastofwest
2006-10-31 14:00:10

..Not to worry. Boomer retirees, Foreign investors will be keeping prices from falling. There’s only so much land you know….

 
Comment by Don\'t know Nothin About Buyin No House
2006-10-31 21:57:07

Walmart balking at opening a new store in a town that will let them in has officially marked the housing bust (and start of recession) in the US.

 
Comment by Wacahootaman
2006-11-01 05:19:52

I own a small tract of wooded, undeveloped, land less than 10 acres, in remote, rural,Marion county on a non county maintained road. I cant get an ag exemption on it from the county and the taxes on it just tripled to almost 3 grand.

I had planned to homestead on it with a single wide trailer and now the county is demanding impact fees of almost 10 grand just to put a single wide trailer on my own property

I have lived in Florida since the late 1940s and have never seen anything even closely resembeling the abusive attacks on private property rights by the local government as I see now!

 
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