‘Land-Locked’ Flagstaff ‘Deluged’ With For-Sale Inventory
The Arizona Daily Sun reports on Flagstaffs housing bubble, titled, ‘Housing market deluged.’ “Drive through the condominiums in Boulder Pointe and you’ll find about 10 homes with sales signs. North San Francisco Street also has a handful of for-sale properties in a two block section. And new houses are springing up as fast as they can be built, and available land will permit.”
“It’s true more properties are listed in Flagstaff’s real estate market this year, but don’t expect prices to come down anytime soon, say local industry experts.”
“As of the first week of February there were 343 homes actively listed in Flagstaff’s market, a 75 percent increase over the number listed the same week in 2005. But only 40 are currently below $400,000. In addition, the median list this week was at about $415,000, with the median sold price for all of 2006 remaining securely in the $300,000s.”
“‘It’s obvious that there are more houses for buyers to look at,’ said (realtor) Ann Heitland. While it’ll be difficult for prices this year to beat the 37 percent climb seen in 2005, the market will continue to go up, Heitland said.”
“And this land-locked community shouldn’t expect prices to come down soon, if ever, said (developer) Tom Brewster. The shortage of available land coupled with building materials inflating more than 5 percent a year means even new houses can’t be built to meet the demand for properties priced below $300,000.”
“‘It’s hard to put a house out there for less than $325,000, even a townhouse. Most will be $345,000 to $400,000,’ he said. ‘Because we have a real lack of land, we don’t really catch up. There’s no way to increase the supply’ to outpace demand.”
“It’s not likely that sellers trying to gouge the market, or investors flipping their properties, are having much influence on home prices, Brewster added. ‘For people to just throw their house out there to see if they can get it..most of the selling and buying community in Flagstaff is sharp enough to know what a fair price is. I think everybody’s willing to pay fair price for the house if it makes sense and they have the ability to pay for it.’”
“Heitland said sellers do push the market, but they’re capped by what people will pay. ‘Sellers’ motivation has varied greatly from moment to moment and usually they are more concerned with when there house is going to sell and that they get a fair market price then whether they push the market,’ she said. ‘Although, of course, last year there was more pushing the market than we’ve seen in prior years. I don’t know if that’s going to be happening this year or not.’”
“Brewster, who’s now experiencing the market first-hand as a buyer, said it will continue to be difficult. ‘I happen to be right now looking for a home for my brother-in-law. We can’t find anything in town that’s 4-bedroom for less than about $450,000 that’s ready to move into.’”
“The best bet, Brewster added, is to get into the market if you can. Prices might be forever high. ‘The best thing to do is don’t wait to buy. If you can afford to buy, buy.’”
Thanks to the reader who sent in this tip. The Sun continues to be in complete denial about the situation. There is no shortage of land; the city just approved 1,000 homes. There are is infill property everywhere. And most telling is the rents there aren’t any higher than anyother part of northern Arizona. Sounds like the speculators are bailing in Flag!
Does Flagstaff have average incomes to support those prices ? If not there is no driver for higher prices other than speculators who cannot get positive cash flows. Game over Realtors…..
Not to my knowledge. It’s another pretty, basically resort community with a smallish job base. Lots of retirees and second home owners. And as I’ve pointed out in other posts, there are a finite supply of those. Most communities can’t live by outsider wealth alone.
Most communities can’t live by outsider wealth alone.
And yet it seems like every community at or below the SLO, Denver, Atlanta line in the US is going to be saved by Northerners moving South. Every community above that is going to be saved by investment from outside the US. And the rest of the World is going to be saved by US spending.
So you’re wrong man, just plain wrong. Every community is going to be saved by outside spending!
Flagstaff was the origination of the “X-locked” jokes.
Now who is the joke on…
Lock joke locked! Proof by recursion.
Landlocked? BS, I drove thru Flag last summer on the way to the GC. I didn’t notice any shortage of land. Just out of town, going north there are huge, wide open spaces of flat land.
how could there be a shortage of land if there are 30,000 homes on the market?
I don’t believe all the hype about lack of land. I really think the problem is developing the land. Seems like people come into an area and then they get “nimby syndrome”. They battle to keep out development so it restricts supply thus increasing their home values. With all the regulation developers have to go through it can take years to get bulding permits these days.
The 30k homes are for Phoenix, 120 miles south. Flag is it’s own market, though I’m sure that there are many 2nd homes there. Winter, run to the snow. Summer, run from Hell (Phx).
I guess you could say they’ve reached permanently high plateau.
I just read this old comment in my paper today.
“National Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah said. “Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level out a high plateau — a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle.”
Do you think he is still unaware that he is inadvertently paraphrasing Irving Fisher’s ill-fated 1929 prediction? “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Or does he assume the sheeple are just too dumb to notice the gaffe?
Somebody should send this guy a snail-mail letter to tip him off, as he is apparently blog- and history-illiterate!
“write a letter to the editor”
The Arizona Daily Sun welcomes letters to the editor. Letters should be addressed to the editor, Arizona Daily Sun, P.O. Box 1849, Flagstaff 86002. Our fax number is 774-4790. Our e-mail address is azdsnews@azdailysun.com. You may also use the form below to submit your letter.
Rachel Peterson can be reached at rpeterson@azdailysun.com or 556-2253.
that really needs to happen, maybe a group effort with ben as the editor?
Thanks local experts - hey, by the way - local buyers say, “Don’t expect to sell anything until prices drop considerably.”
Total idiots - I’m curious, what does it take to be a local expert? A couple of junior college classes and a real estate license.
I think they tend to find so called experts that will give them the answer they want to hear.Seems like there are a lot of self proclaimed experts these days.
The Sun and other papers don’t want to give their readers the accurate bubble re picture as this will decrease their advertising revenue. eom
You got that right. Don’t want to cut off that hand that feed you!
You are correct. All it takes to be a local industry expert is one or two junior college classes and a real estate license. Furthermore, these so-called “experts” have ulterior motives.
“‘It’s hard to put a house out there for less than $325,000, even a townhouse. Most will be $345,000 to $400,000,’ he said. ‘Because we have a real lack of land, we don’t really catch up. There’s no way to increase the supply’ to outpace demand.”
Excuse me, is this true?
I just looked at realtor.com to see what houses are going for… mighty prices for that area I would say.
“Because we have a real lack of land, we don’t really catch up. There’s no way to increase the supply’ to outpace demand.”
This is a photo of Flagstaff, AZ from space.
…apparently our co-conspirators at NASA are trying to fool people into believing there is a bubble too.
Great photo. Looks like a real land shortage to me. Time to build up?
I’m not too familiar with Flagstaff. Haven’t been there in years, but I’m wondering if the shortage of land means shortage of developable land. A lot of land in western states is Indian reservations, owned by the government i.e. national parks & forests etc.
There definately is a lot of public land right around Flagstaff that has shaped its growth in funny ways. However, there is still plenty of private land to develop.
Coconino County has a good GIS site. Go there, click on parcels and land ownership, then zoom in to Flag.
http://gis-map.co.coconino.az.us/website/coconino/main.asp
Question for Ben Jones: What the hell do people who live up in Valle and places like that do for a living? Do they commute to Flag, or are there lots of retirees living there? Its been a long time since I’ve been to Flag but from what I can remember there is not employment up there whatsoever, except a few gas stations on the way to the GC.
Northern Arizona University is in Flag. Main stop on HWY. Tourists love Flag
Here is a photo of Flagstaff Gardens. Of course the reason it doesn’t look like landlocked Flagstaff Arizona is because its downtown Melbourne. When Flagstaff Arizona looks like this then I will say…..there is still room to grow. Melbournes real estate prices have been tumbling recently in case no one was aware.
Hmmmm
Read about Whale learns to blow bubble rings.
“Visitors now think that her bubble rings are lucky, and bring happiness to anyone she blows them at.”
I’ll bet this is the only bubble they want to see
People said the same thing about Tokyo, fifteen years ago.
“Just when we learn that one in every 53 American households files for bankruptcy, last year. The government proposes to slap them another bill for $9,366 - That’s how much we will pay in taxes!!
Banks are taking back homes almost faster than they can finance them. In December 2005, 81,290 properties across America entered some stage of foreclosure. That’s a 13.5% surge from the previous month — and the highest for the year.
The so-called hottest markets for real estate were also the most gruesome. Texas’ December foreclosures took the dubious distinction of the highest anywhere — a 61% jump. Nevada and Utah, whose markets were even hotter than their summers, saw a 30% increase in December foreclosures. And in sunny California, 27% more people had to file for foreclosures around the holiday gift-giving season than in November. ”
I wish I could see this on the front page of a newspaper!!!!
I knew we had a lot of foreclosures in Texas, but I didn’t know we were one of the hottest markets for real estate - unless you’re talking about the temperature. Anyway, I don’t care what the local newspapers and magazines are saying, I know that things are much more precarious now than in the late 80s - and, in the late 80s we had a total melt-down. Not very scientific, but check back with me in a couple of years and see if I was correct.
Amazing isn’t it, how D Rag failed to mention the foreclosure rate here.
House across the street from me had its third open house in 5 weeks on the market today. Not one looker.
Txchic, what part of Dallas are you in?
White Rock Lake area. Very close to downtown.
txchick,
I was amazed at what $200k will buy you in Texas!! How do you like it? What is the property tax rate?
I am going to work for the CA gov as a tax collector and they have an office in Dallas. Sure looks like $50k will go further there than in CA. $350k here in CA gets you a small shitbox, what I have seen on Realtor.com shows housing to be cheaper by at least half.
Any Texas observations? Will the summers kill you like in Arizona? Do you have humidity associated with pet eating insects?
All I can say is you will spend every day you are here wishing you could leave.
What is it that is keeping you here if this area is making you so miserable?
Life is too short to be miserable.
Best I recall, property taxes in Texas are relatively very high. Not sure they have homestead protection from revaluation, either, though that would be a moot point when prices tumble.
Hah, then I guess it’s not cheap enough =)
Its not quite that bad Rich. Some people here like do like it.
City + School + misc will run you around 3% depending on the town/county/school districts/hospital/etc you are in.
http://www.dallascad.org and http://www.tad.org will allow you to see what the taxes are on houses in Dallas and Tarrant county.
Summers can be very brutal - 100+ degree is the norm come summer time, but most people seem to adjust.
Property tax is 3%, IIRC. So that’s $500 a month for the $200k house.
Developers will always complain about lack of available land; it’s in their best interest, since they are essentially in the business of holding and re-selling land. There is no lack of buildable land, although there may be a lack of land suitable for a business model which relies on one-size-fits-all cookie-cutter development.
‘..most of the selling and buying community in Flagstaff is sharp enough to know what a fair price is. I think everybody’s willing to pay fair price for the house if it makes sense and they have the ability to pay for it.’
This is fantasy economics! Hmmm …. “fair price” ? ? Shortage of land ? Before the 37% ramp up in prices in 2005, was there plenty of land ? Did the land evaporate, or get nuked or something, during the year ?
The “buying community” in Flagstaff, Phoenix and Tucson is sharp enough to see that now is NOT the time to buy, and that’s why the current inventories in those cities cannot and will not be sold at the prices the developer Mr Brewster wants to see.
There’s plenty of land to meet current demand in Arizona. This surplus land comprises the plots on which the 000’s of houses currently for sale are built.
Oh baby . . . this is the news I’ve been waiting for. Kind of like Auction Heaven getting the word that OC is deluged. Hope it happens soon for you, buddy.
i honestly don’t know how these realtors can look in the mirror. I can’t believe they buy their own rhetoric, even with just a couple nightclasses and an associate’s degree. They contradict the premise of each sentence in the very next one. And even if the “journalists” are also sans big degrees, don’t they notice that? Are the reporters the very same individuals who collect the classified advertising revenue or what?! just incredible.
I think classaction suit would be completely appropriate for people going into default, jeez. Classaction against the appraisers, the realtors, the mortgage brokers, the whole bloody lot.
Heads up everybody,
New Home Sales tomorrow 10:00 am
Existing on Tuesday 2/28 at 10:00 am
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200609.html
lack of locked jokes- any lawsuits agianst “expert” yet ?
why don’t journalists ask them is they’ve bought in the last 6 months- then you find out they’re lying , not buying
Last tmie I was in Flagstaff we drove out to Meteor Crater. IIRC, there are thousands of square miles of empty space just east of town. I’m not sure how it could be landlocked.
That is one huge crater isn’t it? It’s a half-mile across! You could fit a tract of ugly cookie cutter houses right across the bottom. (And the crater is privately owned- makes you think.)
That surrounding country 40 miles east of Flagstaff is some of the most flat and empty land to be seen in AZ- nothing’s there except I-40.
Yep! You’ve seen it to. So basically we’re looking at an area that could contain the entire NYC metro area, and the RE experts (not Ben!) say the city is running out of land.
They got some balls there in Flagstaff!
“There’s no way to increase the supply’ to outpace demand.”
Yes, yes, Idiot’s Guide to Economics
tells us that supply and price will adjust to meet demand. This isn’t even Econ 101 - we’re talking Econ Cliff’s Notes here. The problem isn’t the inability of supply to match demand (which was true in the last 5 or so years, thus driving up prices - duh). The issue at hand - from autumn of 2005 until God only knows when - is that demand has left the building. How many ways are there to find economic harmony now? TWO. Either break out the wrecking ball, or… 
Love the rolling eyes!!
Now that its almost march I think we should have a thread about the Macro events that will affect housing this spring. i.e M3, ARM’s resets, gold, U.S. currently operating in a technical default, and the thing with M3 that i’m really watching is the opening of the Iranian oil Bourse. If oil really takes off in Euros, confidence in the dollar will drop off a cliff and cause hyperinflation. This will prompt intrest rates to shoot up at an even faster pace than in the early 80’s. I have a few of My ideas of how it might play out on my blog if anyone is intrested. The main idea is to get the information out there. Youll never see one story about the Iranian oil bourse (exchange) in the mainstrean media, and when it hits on March 20th that will spell an end to dollar hedgemeny.
Here is a good article relating to the bourse. I always take the gloom and doom talk with a grain of salt but this is very plausible.
Explains why Bush is adamant about the UAE ports deal.
Dear Afar,
That is one of the greatest bouts of nonsense I have ever read. The value of the dollar is based on supply and demand, not its pegging to oil. We came off the gold standard in 1914, not 1932. The roaring 20’s were a direct result of trade imbalances, which when corrected resulted in the great depression.
This brings me to my point. The demise of the dollar will not come from the Iranian oil exchange… goodness gracious. It will come when the Fed has to print so much money to keep interest rates low (due to a slowing economy) that the value loses value.
However, it will not come from our trading partners moving to the euro/oil. For example, if China pulls the plug on its demand for dollars (which they could) and cause a dip in the dollar (which it would), then their primary trading partner (the country that’s been buying their products) would NO LONGER BUY THEIR PRODUCTS. Guess what that means? Do you honestly think that they would destroy their own market; a market that they have jealously guarded?
Why do you think Bush bullied the Chinese into raising the value of their currency? They don’t want to pump their dollars into their economy. They want to buy dollars for the exact purpose of propping it up and maintaining their historic economic surge.
The person who wrote this is blinded by his hatred of America and Bush. There are many out there who salivate at the possibility of decaying America. However, that’s not likely to happen. We came out of the great depression stronger than before, and with the possibility of massive deficit spending (like Japan of the 90’s) we can push our economy through another one. It won’t be pretty and will possibly result in Europe becoming the next economic engine (even if only temporarily), but a demise is definitely a hysterical notion.
King Cheese,
Read the following link, if you don’t believe it.
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2006/cr021506.htm
Prices here in the Bullhead City/Fort Mohave Area have climbed about 40% since late 04. I have been here fence sitting and paying reasonable rent for almost a year waiting for the correction. Signs of desperation are starting to show, lots of rentals coming on line, many are new homes that are not selling and others are scared flippers. I went to a builders open house a few months back and ask what a cash deal would get me! He replied a house with no payments. The jerk sent me a mailing the other day with a price reduction, it went in the trash. Today I stopped at an open house a realtor was on her way out the door but invited me in to look. The home belongs to a desperate builder most likely a cancelled contract. It did not have the carpet and some of the trim work, was being sold as is. The builder had it listed in this weeks paper for 274K prior to the realtor coming into the picture over the last couple of days. The realtor told me it was going for 284K. I have been reading these blogs way too much! I started giving her the run down on the price to rent ratio and that many people want to buy but fear being upside down for 40%. Believe it or not she started giving me the land shortage spill, I had to leave at that point! By then my wife was pointing out the barking dogs next door. Realtors have some real problems on their hands in the near future thanks to blogs such as this one and Zillow. Consumers are simply fed up with their lies, greed and BS in general. They have created a great deal of hostility and resentment with the public and ultimately will pay the price.
i assume you meant to begin your paragraph with “inventories here in….”
That would be a true statement! inventories are through the roof. BHC is dead in the middle of San Bernardino CA, Phoenix and Vegas and seems to relect the situations there. To quote another blogger “There will be blood in the streets” Thats when I plan to buy..
ok, this story is just stupid, stupid, stupid. I live in Prescott, another so-called “land-locked” growing community, between Flagstaff and Phx…current population around 130,000, in the area…new listings on the Prescott Area MLS have been averaging about 60 per day for the last two weeks….that’s tremendous amount of inventory for the population. Very very little is selling. But anyway, I digress. The only freeway that services both Prescott and Flagstaff is, as I write, shut down because of a wreck…it is only 2 lanes each way…it’s a major major headache for Phoenicians and everyone who lives up here. The infrastructure in this state is completely behind the loop. There are developments going up (and not selling, believe me) everywhere and there will be no line land phone for months in some areas. The builders don’t care or plan. There are tons of BLM land parcels available for developer swaps and large ranches that have or are selling out. There is no “shortage of land” here or in Flagstaff. Prescott has just approved a significant rate increase for water….the whole state is in serious water trouble due to an historic drought….Snow Bowl, the supposed “jewel” of Flagstaff that draws the Phoenicians up to spend money on ski weekends is losing millions of dollars this year because there is no snow. The tourist industry in all these communities are taking a big hit…forest closures as well, which will only dramatically increase with the summer season. I had to be in Phx today, got a chance to drive around…for sale signs EVERYWHERE….up here, it’s the same.
That guy who says “buy now!” before it’s too late should have his nuts kicked.
Note to self: Don’t ever piss off Catherine
Why not? I’d consider it an honor to have her kick in my nuts. It’d hurt, mind you, but pain fades - the memory would live on forever!
Prescott, as in biscuit…
Brings back memories of my college days. I had never seen so many middle aged men working in fastfood restaurantes in my life during 1993-1995 that I was in the biscuit.
Great historic town but it is probably overrun by now. How is traffic on the Prescott Freeway over the LaGuardia bridge?
Is the surround forest all dead from bark beetles?
forest looks bad, years of “controlled burns” have contributed to this, as well as bark beetles…traffic is horrendous, no parking downtown, meth problem out of control, etc., etc…I’m a native, but the charm and draw of this town is just about gone. And there are +50 homes on the market in excess of 1 million. Go figure.
I’m just wondering when parts of AZ will run out of water. With the population growing and water becomming less I wonder when/if critical mass will hit. There is a report that over all of Colorado it snowed a brown color from dust that was kicked up in AZ. Sounds eerily reminicnent of the 1930’s, but just a little more west.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/2006-02-17-dirty-snow_x.htm
the california central valley (fresno, modesto, visalia, portersville, bakersfield) is just as vulnerable to water shortage as our arizona neighbors. the entire san jaquin valley is sinking each year as the table keeps getting depleted.
Yes, and most homes in those central valley towns have no water meters– All the water you can use for one low rate! Some people water their laws until they become like swamps, with all the water running off into the street. Many others change their pool water once a month. Every time metering is brought up by the local gvts, near riots are started in those places. Crazy.
Water shortage? Ban golf … now!!
You know, if I created this world and I saw this guy thinking “buy now!” in this context, I would just wait for him to die when it’s his time, and then absorb his life energy without his spiritual self remaining intact. I don’t think this is NOT what this world was created for…
Anyway, I noticed that dang developer practicing his “revisionist” fortune-telling. What he’s trying to do is not just stating his short-sighted believe about the RE future, but he’s trying to force it to happen, through power of authority (he’s a developer, so he’s supposed to know what’s going on). He’s trying to rewrite the future for hell’s sake!
Here’s something to think about. What if prospective buyers were to gang up into a “RE buyer’s association,” with the express purpose of educating people about the fraud of asset bubbles and rising prices, and work as a large buying group to force house prices down or force sellers to go bankrupt in a waiting game? I really would like revenge on those dang people for raising house prices out of most people’s reach.
Sorry, I’m sick today and just got off a long weekend of work.
Stephanie
http://www.deafdrummer.org
[img]http://emoticons4u.com/cartoon/1238.gif[/img]
it didn’t work
Read your bio. You’re awesome.
Ann Heitland, should she read any of the comments here should take a moment and digest what all of you have said because the housing market will bite her and hard when there is no activity. When nothing is selling because of high prices ,there goes her income. When will the RE business wake up and see that the best markets are when thing are selling. On the way up the curve it was great for them but on the way down things can and will be very painful. Oh and by the way my wife works for a builder here in OC Calif. and the real cost of building a trac home is about $100 per SQ Ft. plus the land. That equates to about $180,000 for 1800 SQ FT.plus land. I here land by it self is not expensive in the Flagstaff area so where do the $350,000 and up prices come from? Excessive seller pricing?
It would probably cost a little more than half that in Flagstaff or hell Az in general. Those builders out there were making enormous profits. And even with 25 to 30% price decreases they should still make a profit. Actually before they start bleeding they would probably have to sell at a 60% decrease. Most will hand the llc over to the bank before they do that.
Can anyone access the WSJ and this:
• [$$] Toll Brothers Posts 49% Jump in Net But Trims Forecast
at The Wall Street Journal Online (Sun 9:17pm)
It sounds like a rehash of Thursday but I’m just wondering what their general take is?
Melody,
This might work. If not, you’ll at least see what the tags look like. I have a place where I test html code and it showed up very nicely.
It’s really cute. Ok…here it goes. Crossed fingers.
BayQT~
Nope. Didn’t work here.
BayQT~
new TV show coming soon — “Desperate Flippers”
Today I stopped in on an FSBO open-house near my neighborhood in Gilbert, AZ (suburb of Phoenix). The door was open so I just walked in … called out “hello”, and was greeted by a young man — looked like he was in his late 20’s/early 30’s. Gave me a flyer that was overselling this home — e.g. talked of a pool and “grass area for kids to play” … outside it was a small pool and little patch of unhealthy looking grass in a very small little backyard — more like a patio home. In response to my questions, the young man said he was the owner, the property was bought as an investment property back in November (of 2005 — yes that’s right — just 3 months ago!!!) , and he was selling it for $379K (this was a 2005 sq ft home). He had installed new tile and carpet.
I checked the county assessor’s records and saw the young man/flipper boy had indeed bought the property in November for $359K. What does this tell you??
The game is over for the flippers! This guy is the “greater fool” and he knows it and is trying to pass his mistake onto someone else. Funny he is trying to eke out a 20K profit … probably less since he put some $ into the property.
I asked if he was interested in just renting it … he said “no”, that although he’s had a handful of such inquiries, he wanted only to sell. I wished him ‘good luck’ and left, wondering how much of a “financial bath” he was going to take on the property.
I don’t understand…if he ends up selling it at a loss, then game over for him, but you don’t know how much he will end up selling it for. Or are you commenting on the fact that he’s had the house for three months? I’m confused.
Another question, why do so many people on this blog express glee at the possibility of a flipper ‘taking it in the rear’? Just asking, I’m hoping for/predicting a fall in prices myself, but I don’t understand the proligic venom towards flippers.
proligic = ‘prolific’…I shouldn’t type when I should be sleeping…
It’s easy. They are the ones who because of their greed and desire for a quick buck above all else have driven these prices to such ludicrous levels - to the point where a sane and fiscally responsible person cannot buy, It also encourages builders and developers to continue to build things for that market and ignore the needs of normal people who just want a house to live in. I have animosity for flippers on about the same intensity as child molestors.
I have animosity for flippers on about the same intensity as child molestors.
I don’t. People are stupid and will always be so. Just because I happen to be intelligent and do stupid things slightly less doesn’t make them intentionally malicious.
I’ve said before… there are those that are going to get a good taste of some humility and there are those who deserve to be lined up and shot.
Unforuntately I think the overlap in these groups is quite small.
The sheep will always gets sheared and economics will always be about money (economic decision making power) flowing from weak hands to strong, no matter what the bleeding hearts think.
That doesn’t mean I have to take pleasure in it.
There is quite a bit of hating going on around here. It is unfortunate. However, not all of us enjoy other people’s misfortune. Yes, I said misfortune. That is how I see it.
So called investors are just the average person trying to help themselves and their family. They see a good opportunity and go for it. An opportunity that has been hyped up by dishonest builders, re agents who blindly regurgitate sales pitches, and unethical mortgage companies who pawn their bad loans off to Fannie Mae.
Some of these so called investors have been pretty arrogant about their temporary success and some have been blatantly greedy and dishonest. However, most are just people trying to get ahead. I think most of the people on this blog see their plight and are just trying to avoid it and help these misguided people wake up. Remember, this blog has actually helped many of these people pull out of the market.
it’s interesting…I feel bad for people losing money, I really do. But I still have a problem with flippers because it seems to me that they are feeding on fear as much as anything. Flippers aren’t even interesting in becoming landlords for goshsake, just turning really quick profits by becoming part of a destructive frenzy. I feel bad for the people who bought properties planning on moving in 2 years, or who got in too deep debt and had to sell quickly, but I don’t feel bad for flippers. C’mon; lets not make it seem like flippers are faced with starvation or flipping condos, they’re doing it to feed their children…
they’re “speculators”, “gamblers” with a commodity that’s very emotionally charged and basic, shelter, space, place. If you’re going to accept that it’s a part of human nature to be greedy for quick profits, then I’m thinking you should accept that it’s a part of human nature to feel some pleasure at the table-turn, no, at the ass-kick for the persons who are causing price run-ups that make housing unaffordable. Yeah, the lenders are irresponsible and the realtors are irresponsible, but nobody is *forcing* flippers to take out shady loans to scoop up as much housing as they can and resell it to people trying to house their families. I like the kind of greed that makes people start businesses better than this glorified scalping, don’t you?
cheers!
How can these people get away making these predictions? It defies all logic, and yet we still call her a Real Estate “expert.”
If prices go down will she eat her hat?
It defies all logic, and yet we still call her a Real Estate “expert.”
She’s more of an expert than the people listening to her.
Yes, but that’s not saying much.
—”most of the selling and buying community in Flagstaff is sharp enough to know what a fair price is.”—
I have a simple question. If Flagstaff folks are such RE geniuses, why were homes selling for 1/3 to 1/2 of today’s costs just a few years ago? Didn’t sellers back in 2002-2003 realize they were giving their homes away? They don’t look so sharp in retrospect. Now the shoe is on the other foot and buyers probably won’t look so smart a few years hence. Bull markets make geniuses out of buyers. Bear markets make geniuses out of sellers. I have a sneaking suspicion that buyers and sellers in Flagstaff are no “sharper” than anywhere else.
I have also been passing through Flagstaff driving between SF and ABQ. There are miles and miles of open land. So, no shortage. I can’t speak for the developable land part. At $350K and up for there, seems way overpriced to me. ABQ has a lot more stuff, and is half of the price. I don’t see too many jobs in Flagstaff, except for the tourist ones. Gas is too high there. I will fill up at other places in between.