Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Auctions? “Land, lofts and houses are ending up on the auction block as Metro Detroit homeowners and developers try to quickly clear hard-to-move inventory in the face of a cold housing market.”
“The bulk of the Terra Land Group’s auction comes from the Town Commons development in Howell and the Copper Leaf subdivision in Genoa Township, including 80 lots and 10 houses. Three of the houses on Terra Land’s auction block will be sold no matter how low the final bid.’
In Michigan. “In Livingston County homeowners seeking more than $200,000 for their homes are experiencing losses, real estate agents say. Jim Roth, a Realtor with the Michigan Group, said it is not unusual for homeowners to experience a 20 percent to 25 percent loss on homes priced above $200,000.”
“One couple whose home was on the market for two years at a listing of $419,000 recently sold for $322,000. ‘That is not unusual,’ Roth said. ‘We’re seeing 20 (percent) to 25 percent less in the selling price than what was listed. It’s a buyer’s market.’”
In New Hampshire. “Signs of the return to earth, or at least lower elevations, are abundant along the roadsides in the area where For Sale signs are more likely to say ‘price reduced’ or ‘`newly priced’ rather than ‘under agreement’ or ’sale pending.’”
“John Bridges says he’s suggesting to some sellers who have been ‘a little enthusiastic’ in their pricing that a buyers’ market is taking hold and that dropping the asking price or waiting out the cyclical decline are their best options. He says that asking prices have been dropping something on the order of 8 to 10 percent over what they were last year.’
“A high profile housing analyst says the temperature of Toronto’s red-hot house housing market is set to drop,- and soon. Analyst Will Dunning thinks the party is over. Weaker employment growth, and a glut of new condos in the GTA, mean the value of homes could be set for a slide. ‘It’s not a bad thing,’ he told 680news.”
From Hawaii. “Fall has cast a chill over the residential real estate markets on Kauai and the Big Island, which saw both median home sales prices and sales volume lag last month as demand for properties paled. Phillip Fudge, a real estate agent in Kapaa, said real-estate flippers have mostly left the Garden Isle as prices have moved high enough where it’s hard to make short-term gains on resales, he said.”
“‘I’m hoping that the downturn is just a seasonal thing, but I’m afraid that most of our investors were from the mainland and if their markets have been impacted it impacts us here as well,’ Fudge said.”
Barrons has this:
‘ Banc of America Securities: We are cautious on home-building stocks due to downside risk, based on deteriorating fundamentals, in our 12-month thesis on the sector. Nearly all markets saw price declines, deterring buyers. Our October survey of 3,800 agents in 39 of the largest housing markets pointed to widespread declines ..’
They shouldn’t just be cautious about the home-builders. What about the financiers (didn’t FBR declare a Q3 loss this week)?
I have a link to the FBR story yesterday in the Wall Street post. The did a huge write down in their MBS portfolio and another in their subprime firms. Well over $100 million.
just few reasons why the NAR ad campaign is just a waste of money.
basically people are spooked by toxic loans and without toxic loans, there is no way on earth most of these people can afford to buy houses at current levels. the basic problem is still affordability. if people can’t afford to buy then prices must come down, no matter how much brainwashing the NAR tries to do.
People can’t afford to buy with toxic loans either, as millions will discover over the next two years.
DOH! Ya think? Man, I’m glad the CRACK analysts from BofA are on the job, I can sure rest easy now!
Regarding the NAR’s new marketing :
In the history of Commerce (you can begin with mesopitomia, so we don’t have to listen to the silly caveman dual-sided beneficial trade argument again) Can you name a time when its been beneficial to be on the two sides of the SAME trade?
In all seriousness though, this could be it for the NAR. The amount of corruption associated with this “housing boom” WILL lead to congressional hearings, and at minimum an opening of the MLS. Realtors will go the way of other intermediators in the computer age: runover on the information superhighway. I think this $40 million ad campaign is as much to get people to not list their homes, as it is to try to soak in the last amount of mildly retarted “qualified” buyers, who lack the ability to think critically and buy at these hyper-inflated prices.
“Can you name a time when its been beneficial to be on the two sides of the SAME trade?”
This idea keeps popping up here (flattplan yesterday) and shows that many who post here could have benefited by taking an econ course or two while in college.
who cares about econ courses. if it’s so important for real life business then all of the wall street analysts should be multimilliionaires instead trying to endlessly con the public and feeding off the management fees. they are no better than monkeys. i never took econ courses in college but i am still a lot richer than these guys.
who cares about econ courses?
Getstucco does, he wants to expouse the nuances of derivatives , no matter how in jest the comment was made, because this is a great place for academics to obtain a sense of superiority, that they foster all day in those hallowed halls of the community colleges.
Actually, I was just commenting on the poster’s apparent ignorance about potential gains to trade. I didn’t mean to come off like an intellectual snob or anything
You did (come off as an intellectual snob), I am that poster and understand derivatives. The joke was: the ad shows why its a great time to buy and then says its a great time to buy or sell. You can’t sell both (in this case) you took it as an opportunity to take a jab at others intelligence, which you frequently do. I can explain other jokes to you if you like, but maybe you should just try filtering insults like a big boy?
Your derivatives-trader jab went right over my head, big boy.
It couldn’t have. Rember you’re an academic, you know all. Its actually putting it to use in the real world that teaches you humility.
You guys cut the crap with the BS. If you are so smart, then read the title of the topic. It says “Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!” 90% of the crap written in here does not even remote comes close to the topic. If you are off topic, keep it to a minimum.
You’re right — better to be rich than smart!
depends on your defenition of smart
Simmer down at the back, please…or the driver will stop the bus and you’ll both have to walk home
You’re right. I actually enjoy GS’s insight and humor, and was too thin-skinned, at a pretty innocous comment. I apologize.
Heck, I thought GS meant simply that the NAR is saying we are exactly at market equilibrium (So Bring Us Some Commissions!).
That was my original point not only do they have a simultaneous buy/sell recommend on all homes, but hey we only want 6%
“You’re right. I actually enjoy GS’s insight and humor, and was too thin-skinned, at a pretty innocous comment. I apologize.”
Apology accepted and reciprocated — I don’t care for academic snobbery either, and should practice what I preach. But you should realize that I am not much of an academic; my many strongly-held convictions about the direction of the housing market are far out of bounds from the conservative academic mainstream standards for scientific evidence. Unless academics can cram a data set into the box of some kind of complicated scientific model to back up their conclusions, they generally don’t believe what their eyes should be telling them.
More than ever, it will be critical for the housing bears to convince those potential F’D buyers out there, that 2007 is a year to sit on your hands and build savings. The REIC will be spending huge amounts of money to sucker people into financial suicide next year.
Personally, I talk falling prices ever opportunity I get. Especially, young people who feel they have no choice except take on a huge risky mortgage. More and more I’m getting a receptive ear from the 20 and 30 somethings. They want to see affordable prices. There’s a lot of propaganda from the REIC out there, to counter.
By an amazing coincidence, yesterday a friend at work asked me for advice on real estate, specifically about buying a townhouse. I told him “wait, real estate of all kinds will be cheaper next year”, and explained exactly why. He said he understood but it was mostly his wife who was eager to buy. I said “that’s not unusual”. I’ve met his wife, and she is pretty sharp. I think they will wait, and be very happy that they did!
“Regarding the NAR’s new marketing :”
I posted this on an earlier thread in response to another bloggers comments but I doubt most readers were exposed to it. Here is my take on the NAR campaign:
It seems like NAR members are doing a lot of hand wringing. Moreover, it’s odd that NAR leadership would feel compelled to roll out this campaign in the Fall. Early Spring would be more impactful, IMO.
Question: What do you think of their message distribution choices? The NY Times, USA Today, and WSJ are all national media channels yet DL publicly argues ‘all real estate is local.’ Moreover, who are they targeting with said message? I suspect the readership for these publications are very aware of the bursting bubble and have above average IQs. They are certainly not the GF types the NAR has been targeting all along.
It’s a horrible waste of advertising dollars, IMO. Every professional marketer will tell you that direct personal selling is the best communication channel available to stimulate sales particularly for high ticket or complex products. That’s why the NAR exists — buying or selling a home is a complex transaction for a high ticket product. If they can’t generate sales through ‘one on one’ contact with buyers and sellers, they are simply doomed.
Lastly, what is the respondent suppose to do after reading the ad? Buy? Sell? Call the NAR? Feel good? There is no clear call for action in the ad. I suspect more Realtors™ will be exposed to this message than potential buyers or sellers. Maybe NAR leadership will have something to defend itself with now and can say to membership — we tried.
One last thought, maybe members don’t realize it but David ‘double Speaking’ Lereah did a lot of damage to the NAR brand and its credibility. His incredibly unvelievable happy talk during the bubble’s expansion and run up to the peak sucked a lot of future buyers into the market. Now with falling prices, recent buyers are stuck and upside down with their mortgages. As a result, they can’t sell even if they wanted to (no equity to cover realtor comission or to pay off mortgage) and if they can’t sell they certainly can’t buy either. Ironically, some sellers are locked into their homes like serfs and as a result Realtors™ are locked out of any future potential sales.
“I think this $40 million ad campaign is as much to get people to not list their homes, as it is to try to soak in the last amount of mildly retarted “qualified” buyers,”
LMAO
habla español?
Realtors project housing boom if alternate credit scores adopted
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20061103-1531-wst-hispanichousing.html
This must be that so called “so-fis-tuh-kay-shun” that guy from that federal reserve place keeps talkin ’bout.
“In Fresno, the housing advocate ACORN Housing Corp. helps clients secure loans by writing alternative credit profiles, which often draw on of months of data from telephone bills and employment records,”
sounds like an terribly stringent credit approval process. I had to give up more proof than this to rent a 2 brd in W. LA.
“the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals said.”
This is who’s pushing it…. mmmmmm I wonder why? Wouldn’t be because they would have the market cornered what with a natural language barrier. Fresh fish to fleece.
This crap has to stop…NOW. This is becoming increasingly insane. Lend half a million to some illegals to buy a stucco crap box in SoCal…yeah that makes lots of sense. WTF!!!!
If I were covered by a large pension fund, like CALPERS, I believe I’d start attending whatever meetings I could and asking pointedly, but politely, “How much of our fund is invested directly or indirectly in MBSs? And directly or indirectly in hedge funds? And where can I find this in the financial statements” They might well say they’ll have to research that or other mumbo-jumbo, at which point I’d ask for a time estimate. At the very least, getting these directors to say something, anything about such exposure, on the record, has to be a good thing in that they will at least think about that exposure if everything goes south.
Posted this in Bits Bucket, but it probably fits better here.
Today’s Sydney (Australia) Daily Telegraph had a Kurrajong Heights 4/2 SFH as one of the highlighted properties in the RE section. Quite a nice outer suburb.
On the market for $A429K. Sales history shows $A345K in 2000 and $A405K in 2003, so nobody’s making their fortune on this one.
Official interest rates are expected to go up again next Tuesday Oz time, and almost all mortgages here are ARM’s.
Current expectations for Sydney median in 2007 is flat to 5% down, and there’s a Federal election due within 12 months.
I have just moved to Las Vegas from LA(been here 1 week) and the RE market is much worse than LA from what I can see. 1)I am renting a beautiful 4/3 home(2336 square feet) for 1550 that the builders are trying to sell similar models for 400K(math does not add up) and many of the homes in the subdivision are vacant 2)Some of the condo projects seem to be abandoned-I saw one yesterday called 888 Vegas that looks like a vacant lot and an abandoned sales office-the sign says 750-10 million 3)Just for fun I “zillowed” a few homes listed for sale and it seems like most of the homes for sale in Vegas are listed for about 30% more than thier value on zillow, now I dont know how accurate zillow is but if it is at all close this market is in real trouble-especially the lenders holding these mortgages. 4)Lastly, I dont know who these condo developers think are going to buy all of these 1 million dollar plus condos. Vegas is a very blue collar town. There are some retirees coming here but wih the market nationwide going down I dont know where the money will come from to buy these units-I think we may have several vacant and decaying monsters for many years on the Vegas skyline. This may be the new Vegas trademark rather than the Stratosphere tower. Just on mans opinion.
For anyone using Zillow, here’s a tip - Do not even look at the value that it posts for the property you’re running. It’s rarely right. Instead, find the link to the comp page and do your own comps. It’ll show you recent sales of comparable homes in the neighborhood you’re searching. Especially is this the case when doing searches of tract like homes. Normally you’ll find the exact floorplan/lot size of the house searching (even more true for condos). If you got recent sales data of like for like, there’s your value. If your thinking that your house has something special that makes it worth more, I’m sorry, your wrong. It’s all about the comps. But again, do the comps yourself. I don’t know how the heck that program works, but it always overestimates. Everytime I go to the comp page I’m confused with how the program came up with the number. (I use this method when comp-ing out properties for value to see if they’ll work for a particular program. When I do it this way, when the appraisal comes in, i’m usually within 5K of the value I came up with.)
I disagree. It tends to underestimate. The comparables, while close the same house in location, often compare houses on busy streets, different school districts and this can cause major shifts in value. At least that is the case on a couple homes I looked up. But it is good for seeing what a home was listed for and what it sold for.
I’ve been looking at appraisals for 16 years, and I’ll disagree back at you. Schools, busy streets, and the like do have some impact on value, but not “major” impact if this is like for like in the same neighborhood (Can I an appraiser lease step up to the plate here? I need some help with the uninformed.) Besides, Zillow provides a map along with comps for you to analyize location. Go ahead and throw out the comps in the funky areas if you want. No, Zillow does not “often” compare homes on busy streets or inferior locations. It shows recent sales data, and chances are greater you’ll find the similiar property on a similiar street, rather than a busy corner or in a school zone just because the odds are greater. Fewer homes lie in these locations. Never argue with the recent comps.
In my experience, Zillow almost always overesimates. Heck, the last several times I ran the program it showed an upward trend-line, and for NNV that’s laughable. Most cases have been 25K - 50K overestimated. Sorry Chris, your home ain’t worth what you think it is.
Not an appraiser but, been looking at them as long as you have. There is no line item adjustment for “busy-ness of street, good schools or anything of the ilk” on an appraisal. Though those things can lead to a higher SALES value at time of sale, they do nothing for appraised value.
I actually have used zillow for California, Florida and now Vegas. Cali and Florida were actually relatively close but it seems in Vegas most zillow values are about 30% below what sellers are asking.
And MDMORTGAGEGUY, you are so right, I used to sell RE part time in Florida and every seller thought his property had something special that would make it worth more than the comps. Several sellers told me that there was one buyer out there that would just fall in love with his exact property and would pay more for it-of course it never worked out that way.
“…about 30% below what sellers are asking.” (wishing)
But how did the values compare to what actually SOLD in that area recently?
Vegas is toast. Those 400k homes were selling for 150k 4 years ago. Prediction: They will get back to 150 if not lower. Don’t forget the over correction factor.
A rent payment of $1550? So in a neighborhood where rents are equivalent to monthy payments, that’d be about $1350 to finance.
On a 6.5% fixed rate 30, assuming 10% down, the purchase price would be about $238,000.
That’s a long way to fall from the $400K range.
They will probably be JUST like the Stratosphere. That hotel went bankrupt before it opened.
“The Stratosphere opened on April 30, 1996. Shortly after opening, the Stratosphere Corporation was forced to file for bankruptcy. This caused construction on the second tower to stop with only a few stories partially built and allowed Carl Icahn to gain control through one of his companies by buying a majority of the outstanding bonds.” - Wikipedia
Currently running on Chicago radio and streamed via internet is a good cheerleading real estate show:
http://www.wlsam.com/programming.asp
I do not know what to make of the show other than it is a weekly infomercial badged as anything but that.
“Land, lofts and houses are ending up on the auction block as Metro Detroit homeowners and developers try to quickly clear hard-to-move inventory in the face of a cold housing market.”
This is more evidence on an emerging theme at this stage of the game: Pros who don’t care about pride or last year’s lofty prices acting quickly to get out from under the inventory avalanche. I put sale by absolute auction and builder use of big price cuts and massive incentives into this same category, as in both cases, those in the biz are blocking used-home sellers’ path to the exit door by undercutting them.
I think it is time to come up with a new moniker to the opposite of “wealth effect.” How about “debt effect?”
“debt effect?”
I like that. It will fit well.
I like the ‘debt effect’ but how about the ‘loss effect’ OR the ‘deflation effect’ OR the ’snookered effect?’
poverty effect?
the broke effect
Nearly all markets saw price declines, deterring buyers. Our October survey of 3,800 agents in 39 of the largest housing markets pointed to widespread declines ..’
Yesterday’s article showing declines everywhere (including China and Australia) just points out what happens when you create a bubble. There is no where to run.
I’m just left with the question: When will the bond market wise up on MBS’s and change the rules? (e.g., down payment, documentation)
“ The amount of corruption associated with this “housing boom” WILL lead to congressional hearings, and at minimum an opening of the MLS. ”
I hope. I wish. But that congressional hearing won’t be in 2007.
Neil
Barry Ritholtz, on his blog “The Big Picture” summarily destroys the NAR’s new ad campaign, this was excellent: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
Barry is da bomb. Love that guy.
Thanks. In an earlier thread I had asked whether someone could direct me to actual text of NAR’s ad. Agree w/ other commentators who have said it looks like panic > will backfire.
Thanks. In an earlier thread I had asked whether someone could direct me to actual text of NAR’s ad. Agree w/ other commentators who have said it looks like panic > will backfire.
Update from NNV:
In a nutshell, everyone is wearing the “Oh Sh*t” look.
nnvmtgbrkr, how long before you think prices will take a dramatic break lower?
in the Reno area (I should have added to the above question)
Spring ‘07 into ‘08 will be the biggest chunk out of the market, IMHO.
Thanks.
The people that crack me up are the double mortgage people holding two houses at once. It takes so long to save money in the bank. Making those double payments waiting for the house to sell has got to be a huge stomach punch. I suddenly feel so smart for ONLY losing 50k as an etrade idiot during the dot com craze.
“I suddenly feel so smart for ONLY losing 50k as an etrade idiot during the dot com craze.”
There’s no shame in making a mistake. What divides the GFs from the clueful is what you do after you realize you’ve made a mistake, and if you make the same mistake again the next time.
Hi guys. I am continually stunned by how ubiquitous the bubble is. I visited a friend earlier this week in Alabama, where I had never been. My buddy assured me that there is no bubble there; his view is similar to people he knows there. His house cost 150 or something and it was nice, high ceilings, 2 floors, 3 bedroom 2.5 bath (Dk square footage, I would guess around 2400?). I was floored by the building going on in Huntsville– in the back of his house was an open area with a sea of houses in the framing stages. We went to an open house of a finished model in the neighborhood for kicks, and the agent’s smile looked a little ‘deaths head grinn-ey’ - no one else around- she said we were too early and they weren’t ready. The model home was meticulously and expensively furnished. She showed us a map of her companies future development plans and it looked like a WWII map with little color codes for different stages- dozens of new neighborhoods, hundreds of houses….The Huntsville, AL people say they are expecting a population increase for some reason– military bases closing elsewhere or something– but it appears to me that they are seriously overbuilding for buyers who may never come, as is the case EVERYWHERE else in the US. I flew back out of Nashville, and the drive in TN gave me the impression that TN is further along in the bubbilicious stages than AL. TN had lots of billboards either advertising big name builders, or who to call for help with Forclosure.
I really don’t know about Alabama and I’ve lived in Mobile for years. There hasn’t been the speculation like in Fla or Phoenix or ??? but there has been a slow, steady appreciation of home values.
Unlike other places this has been because of increased business both in Huntsville and Mobile. Along with good paying jobs. Mobile has had some business relocations from the NO area as well as local companies winning some major contracts. And Huntsville has had some relocations (Boeing comes to mind, although Boeing has had other facilities in Huntsville for years). It is true that there are going to be some base consolidations resulting in those increases moving to Huntsville.
So I suppose Ala is different in some respects to other areas. Right place at the right time? Solid business growth rather than fantasy speculations? Still, I don’t think we are going to escape some fallout from the national (it is that) bubble bursting. RE deflation here may be less but I think it will happen to an extent.
Well that is certainly consistent with what my buddy said. At any rate, if values DO fall significantly in places like Huntsville, there are going to be some VERY inexpensive house in Alabama (which was way more beautiful and civilized than I had expected).
Yeah, it could turn out bad if they continue to build and build. Mobile is just getting into the condo phase, the city could get burned - the beaches (40-50 miles away) are already in serious trouble.
Actually, the large metro areas of Ala are pretty much the same as other larger cities around the country and are nice places to live.
But the small towns and rural areas (contains maybe 1/2 the population of the state) are something else. I grew up in a small town (in Ala) far away from a large urban area. I thought it (the life style) was weird then and don’t see much of a change 40 years later. And their schools … well, not so great (an understatement, they suck and thats being polite).
I have been though the Copper Leaf sub, nice piece of ground, But it was so hard to find, was behind an existing older sub, thought it was going to be a problem to sell there even 2 years ago.
Builder that developed it built a good home in the area, they had been having a hard time and bad luck cense they started this project. Bad luck in one of there old time employees got killed on a jobsite by accident.
This is something forgotten here I think…. Building is very hands on for the smaller builders. Having a death from family or friends at times changes your view on what is and isn’t important. Sometimes money isn’t everything in life.
I drove through southern Hillsborough county today. This is south of Tampa and North of Sarasota. There is nothing out there but agriculture. It is a god 45 minutes to anywhere. I can’t believe they would build 3, 4, 5 hundred thousand dollar homes out in the middle of nowhere! This is like buying pets.com stock back during the dot com mania. Unfortunately for the builders, this will turn out the same way. Whoever authorized them to build houses out here should be fired. Total incompetence, arrogance, and greed is what fed this. Oh well, I guess they KNEW that out of area speculators were feeding this bubble and they would buy anyhere in FL sight unseen. This just goes to show you what kind of bag holders everyone is going to be. The builder, speculator, these homes are bags out in BFE.
Interesting, but nope, not quite the same way. With pets.com, the only thing left behind are quips & anecdotes. For developments that complete DOA, you get the skeletons rotting in the sun, like a beached whale , the stench drifting far & wide over everyone & everything around.
Of course, with a whale, you can drag it back out to sea & let the sharks feed on the carcass….
“with a whale, you can drag it back out to sea & let the sharks feed on the carcass”
Or you can just blow it up (from the ‘it seemed like a good idea at the time’ department):
http://www.perp.com/whale/video.html
I wonder if they can do that with excess housing inventory…
I was is a small shop this morning. The owner was too busy talking to a friend to wait on me. They were discussing how they had pulled their houses off the market due to inactivity and both agreed that putting the homes back on the market in the spring was the best plan. ‘The market will be a little better then.’
I got tired of waiting and walked out.
I guess we can look forward to long waits at beauty parlors and taxi stands in the near future.
I cant wait till all these tards put there house back on the market in the spring when conditions are even worse. Just picturing the looks on their faces.
blink blink blank stare blink blink
/crickets chirping in the background
Yep, everyone has the same idea, waiting for the spring bounce that will never materialize. Will the NAR tell sellers not to sell unless they “have to”, like they’re doing now? By parroting some kind of imminent market recovery, IMO they’re only hurting themselves by telling everyone to hold off selling. Once all the relists hit the market at once this spring, inventories will be even higher than they are now and were this past summer.
Right. The builders are not holding off till spring. It will be worse for the sellers of existing homes when the builders have driven the prices down further.
“/crickets chirping in the background”
LOL. Good one.
” cant wait till all these tards put there house back on the market in the spring when conditions are even worse. Just picturing the looks on their faces.
blink blink blank stare blink blink”
In the LA Market, by spring 2007 there will be possibly 10,000+ additional condo units available, and this is probably way under the mark. Add in tons more foreclosure and possible uptick in interest rates and those sellers waiting till spring will have an unpleasant surprize. Other unforseeable shocks to the La Market include: Earthquake,another energy spike, renewed Middlew Eastern crisis, another terror attack,sharp reduction in immigration if the border wall actually goes up, sharper than expected recession, ect. Any of these events, or even several events happening simultaneously, could throw the hoped-for spring bounce out of whack, on top of the inevitable RE downward price corrections due to way out of whack prices.
I spoke with a local realtor recently who said that he expects prices in our area (NW Washington state)to really start to come down by March 07.
Wait until March ‘08! The truth is, the prices are going to come down below what people owe on their mortgages, and it will be the banks selling the foreclosures that will be setting the prices thereafter.
Its funny. About every five years or so I can recall being at a mall or coffee shop with my wife and have remarked afterward that we need a brief recession sometime soon to improve the quality of customer service. Last time was probably sometime in early 2001, so we’re probably due for another.
Humble Pie, It’s What’s for Dinner
Your true character can only be known when you have power. Most people turn into insensitive a**holes once they become prosperous while those left behind crucify the prosperous for not sacrificing everything gained in order to bring them all along. Beware the nobility of the poor for many of them have it forced upon them. Don’t be fooled by the rocks that she’s got, she’s still Jenny from the block. Sharing is easy when everybody has nothing.
Now that the chance of getting rich will become scarce, I predict more people will once again start focusing on “the important things in life.” So noble.
Some people are smart and simply not enticed by materialism. They are probably on a Department of Homeland Security Watchlist. Imagine the danger to our nation from people who don’t care about buying stuff.
The “wait until the market picks up in the spring” mantra has really taken hold in Bozeman. But even though people are taking their homes off the market, the total listings are still inching up slightly. Just wait until all of this reserve inventory comes surging on the market in March.
For the longest time, people would look at my like I came from Mars when I suggested that the market here would have to correct at some point.
Now virtually everyone acknowledges that the market has slowed dramatically and inventory is way to high. But the “it will bounce back next year” thing helps people sleep at night.
Let’s see, we have a year’s worth of inventory on the market, even more reserve inventory, hundreds of vacant homes that won’t sell, the local economy is completely dependent upon building and selling homes, and “poof” magically everything will go back to normal next spring. Very rational.
They keep saying we have a “service economy”; but the service sucks everywhere!
Here’s a few from local papers:
‘Reduced, Reduced! 4br 2ba built 1995 .44 acre. Village of Oak Creek (AZ).’
no price given.
And saw an ultimatum like some of you have reported:
‘Final Offerring by owner. Extremely well priced Oak Creek Valley home. Prime condition, over 1800 sq ft hardwood floors. Near park and two creeks $299,500.’
And here’s is a uptown Sedona motel I have been watching on the market for well over a year:
‘Sedona Motel Parntership Liquidation. Price reduced almost one million dollars. 16 rooms, mgr apt & office.’
No price given.
Ben,
Late last night the very historic and popular (in AZ) Young’s Farm (the main building) burnt down…no details yet, but just for fun, let’s review. This may be sad news to all the Arizonians here…very popular place.
The farm was optioned last year to a developer group from Scottsdale. They had big plans. It’s an awesome property.
They didn’t get approval to build out like they wanted (new Dewey/Humboldt town council flexing it’s muscle)…the developers were all atwitter and upset.
The Young’s just had their last Pumpkin Festival. And moving to new farm in Oregon.
Hm.
I sponsered the Mutton Busting rodeo last year. I Always liked that place.
Sad to see the hungry bear move (and fail)
Following Miami market (especially more desirable places like Pinecrest or Coral Gables) closely - anything priced at mid-2005 levels still sells fast.
Inventory is rising, and most of it is priced well *above* the peak (end-2005) prices - usually 10-15% above. Smart sellers list their properties at 2005 prices, and those move well. Still a lot of buyers around, it seems.
I’ve been watching a house I recently lived across the street from in Silverlake LA. It’s the type of house we’d like to buy at half price.
The owner/flopper paid $929,009 on 06/23/05. Originally listed it with a 1.09 million wish price on 4/25/06. Months later and after several reductions, it entered some stage of foreclosure — last week reappeared with new photos at $839K. Still crazy of course, but nice to see an LA specu-loser get kicked in the a$$! (Especially THIS bon vivant specu-loser — he used to throw noisy parties late into the night where he’d impress his stupid friends with stories of his brilliant real estate career… Okay, I wasn’t actually at these parties, but it probably happened. :-))
Zip links for the old and new listings:
http://tinyurl.com/vjtq7
http://tinyurl.com/yyy4nz
That’s an impressive drop
I owned right near you on Berkeley between 1997 and 2003.
Sold in 03? Good job!
Don’t know if you are being sarcastic or not
I can’t complain about my profit (sold over double what I paid) but there was still another good 200K of appreciation after I sold. I sold because we were temporarily moving out of state so I wasn’t trying to time the market, but at the time I did think I was selling at the peak!
Not being sarcastic. I figured you did well!
Sliverlake district has some unique street patterns. More like a tortuous maze. Especially enjoy driving down one street which dips up and down like a roller coaster ride.
Be careful. Got in a head-on colision with a neighbor who learned to drive in South America. Low speed crash but totaled my ‘86 535i.
I like the little article about Toronto. Here in New York City the building is crazy. Not everybody here is living on a trust fund or making Wall Street scumbag money. But they are building like crazy. Still, it is nothing compared to Toronto. The condo glut is worse than anything I’ve seen in the states and I’ve been to Phoenix and Orlando recently. I think Toronto wants to be the New York of Canada. Unfortunately, it is more like Minneapolis. That’s not bad. It just means they are seriously overbuilding and have lost their minds.
This bubble is worldwide.
My friend who has her house on the market in Cupertino, CA (Silicon Valley) had not received a single offer on her home since listing it about 6 weeks ago - though the open houses were active. She has reduced the price $20k. Another friend who has a house in Los Altos Hills finally sold after cutting the price $200k - this was a couple going through a divorce and needed a quick sale. There are a lot of condos for sale in my neighborhood (Cupertino) that have not sold even with reduced asking prices.
Of all the areas I track, San Jose definitely seems to be the weakest. There are almost double the number of SFH on the market in 95128 this year versus last year at this time. The general attitude in this area still seems to be that it is “special,” “different,” etc. Awaiting spring…
I also have friends going thru divorce and trying to sell a small, unimpressive home in the NW San Fernando Valley (LA) for $650 (reduced from $670). Been on the mls for a month so far, not much activity.
Michigan’s housing market has been horrible for at least a couple of years now. There are no buyers. Many sellers I know just want out. Despite lowering their homes by around $100k (back to their purchase price from 1995 and 1999), they have had no additional showings. I can understand why sellers are trying auctions.
A friend of mine in Canton just sold his home for $95k under what he purchased it for in 2000. He is depressed, but is still glad he got rid of it. He was laid off from Ford and is relocating to Texas. He had 3 showings all year!
I ran into a local realtor last month. The last home her office sold was listed at $649k and sold for $400k (5800sf). This is the only home her office has sold in 5 months. I guess one of the realtors in her office just moved to Arizona because she heard the housing market is better there.
Yeah I think mi peaked about ‘01-02. Since then its been sinking steadily. I can’t believe how many homes are for sale. It seems people want to make Mi a ghosttown. With mfg imploding it probably will. A friend tells me in his retailing job, all he sees is retiries. He feels that is what is holding up the Mi economy. Without all those generous retirements from Generous Motors, we’d be sunk.
Many years ago I visited a friend at his family’s place in Sandusky, OH. It was in the winter, and they were a rather large and noisy family packed into a row style brownstone place that was probably built in the late 1800s. I remember the cold, it was biting cold, and everything there had the look and feel of drab dullness. I can’t imagine being upside down in RE anywhere near there; game over!
Jesus Christ! What in the world was that realtor thinking?? Hah, they think it’s hard to make a sale there, wait until they get a taste of the current Arizona market.
The same houses I was looking at almost 6 months ago are either still for sale, drastically reduced, or for rent. Looking on Craigslist I am seeing quite a bit more “owner will carry” posts, which I never saw before now. And it’s only going to get worse. Some of the valley’s markets have already dropped 10% with no end in sight.
OBO Real estate:
I’ve always thought “OBO” tacked on a wishing price was a great sign of a depreciating asset.
Here’s one from the Bellingham (WA) Herald “Houses for Sale” column:
3 Bd, 2 Ba 1630 sqft. Stunning new custom waterfront, house has too many upgrades to list…blah blah blah…598,000 obo.
Whatcom county is south of the 49th parallel, Mr. Seller.
For some time now, I have been tracking foreclosures in Riverside County (on foreclosure.com). Since Aug 2005 foreclosures are up… wait for it… 765% (up to 701 from 81) in the county. Not sure how reliable these numbers are or how they compare to historical levels, but they were quite flat until June 2006 when they began to skyrocket. I think it’s still pretty small number relative to the number of households in the county (~500K) but there are still a lot of ARMs that have yet to reset…
(That’s Riverside California by the way)
Ah, almost forgot. For evidence of the beginnings of a panic, besides “obo” offerings, how about realtors disguised as local TV news reporters?
Last night a Seattle station did a spot on how, according to some survey, Seattle was in the 5 markets that wouldn’t go down. San Fransisco, Boston, NYC, LA were the others, so we know they got THAT wrong.
This was directly followed (no commercial break) by an announcement of a new condo project that was coming on board this weekend, complete with photos and prices. Cut back to the “news team” banter of “Wow! That’s a pretty good price!” “Wow! can you believe how much RE’s gone up the past several years?!”
The news here gave up on pumping the SFH market a couple months ago. The papers went straight to pumping the condo market after that. But this latest from TV news really crosses the imaginary line between news and RE Agency.
Just re-read Ben’s 8:04 a.m. post and focused on the name of the last real estate agent named: Phillip Fudge. In a new and more competitive environment, he should either change his name to something not connoting dishonesty, or else get wholly with the joke and call himself Phlipper Fudge.
Regarding the aptly re-named Phlipper Fudge, Mr. Fudge is a real estate broker in Kauai, where there are over 500 real estate agents for an island population of about 55,000. A lot of the appreciation on the island can be attributed to agents who have become investors by acquiring property in new subdivisions, then attempting to flip in a double escrow at a much steeper price. Century 21 agents on the island are the worst offenders with substandard ethics. So, a lot of the recent price declines are from owner/listors who fell into a greedy trap.
Suzanne
St. Petersburg, FL - spoke with a really nice realtor (yes, I’m being serious) who figured me out quickly. Within five minutes she said, “yeah, tell me what you want and I’ll start low-balling.” I told her there was a house around the corner that I had walked through 3 times (to talk to the new listing realtor each time) and that I was interested in it. She said it was going into foreclosure. I may actually see if the bank is willing to dance.
Ben, i’ve been really busy. I am freakin’ DYING to get you some photos of St. Pete. I’ve got some time in a few weeks and I’m gonna hit the town. There are photographic gems out there.
This week I saw my first bank-owned home in Vegas, in the neighborhood next to where I live. It was hard to miss because there was a large “No Trespassing” sign pasted on the garage door. The words “Bank Owned” were in smaller print underneath. There was also some sort of signage on the front door, but I could not read it from the street.
There are two FSBOs and one house listed with a realtor on the same short street. That’s about 1/4 of the total number of houses on the street that are currently for sale. Both of the FSBOs were obviously occupied and decorated for Halloween. It was hard to tell about the realtor-listed home…no decorations and the plantation shutters were completely closed, though the grass and bushes were trimmed.
I checked WikiBroker, and it appears that the most recent sale in that subdivision was last August. I would not want to be one of those sellers right now.
Study: Businesses pay more in Mass.
By TOM SPOTH, Sun Staff
Article Last Updated:11/01/2006 11:45:49 AM EST
BOSTON — An economics professor at the University of Rochester is thinking of coming to teach at Boston University.
He lives in a spacious three-bedroom house in Rochester, worth $250,000. When he comes to visit Boston, a similar abode costs about $1 million more. Is cost of living a deal-breaker in this situation?
….
BU professor Laurence Kotlikoff told this story yesterday at an event hosted by the Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research. Pioneer this week released a study that concluded that it’s 20 to 30 percent more expensive to run a business here than it is in competing states North Carolina, Texas, and New Hampshire.
…..
The study identified payroll costs and the price of renting or buying space as the largest cost factors. Also hurting Massachusetts were the price of unemployment insurance, energy costs, an taxes.
……
Representatives for gubernatorial candidates Kerry Healey and Deval Patrick were on hand yesterday to offer their two cents.
Healey’s Republican running mate, Reed Hillman, said crime prevention is key to the pair’s plan for the state, and said “the best crime-prevention program I’ve seen is a job.” To boost job creation in Massachusetts, Hillman said, the income tax should be rolled back and reform should be enacted for both unemployment insurance and automobile insurance.
Rep. Dan Bosley, a North Adams Democrat speaking on behalf of Patrick, preferred to focus on developing new technologies and new industries. “This is the decade of velocity,” he said, quoting Microsoft’s Bill Gates. “Things are moving faster than the speed of light. Technology and ways of doing business … are changing every day. We need to stay involved, stay engaged in that process.”
…..
Kotlikoff said the high price of living in Massachusetts is easily explainable — it’s driven by high demand.
“This is the intellectual capital of the world,” Kotlikoff said. “Anyone who can stand the cold would want to live here.”
—
Yeah, right. That’s why the state is losing people. Because no one can stand the cold weather.
http://www.lowellsun.com/business/ci_4585289
Pretty amazing to look at a table of unemployment rates by state: http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/state_unemployment/index.html
I do see a lot of help-wanted signs and I know that we’ve
hired engineers lately. Someone on an educational mailing
list indicated that her husband turned down and engineering
management job and they went chasing him to get him to
reconsider. So jobs seem to be plentiful. Maybe not the
highest quality jobs but I do see high quality jobs out there
if you have the skills.
I wonder if the Fed is going to crank rates a little more next
year.
Texas is listed at 4.8%. Unemployment might be higher than that in the Valley, but in Houston the only reason a person doesnt have a job is they dont want one.
Just a few tidbits from LOs Angeles:
There are 8 cranes operating just south of dwtn LA Core district busy putting up a host of condo/office towers. A few condos/lofts are already available such as the grand lofts at grand and 11th. By 2007 there will be an estimated 2000+ cond0s/lofts available just in this section of LA . West of 110 fwy along wilshire 3 more Condo complexes, another 300+ units, will be done by 2007. In the gritty Chinatown district north of dwtn a large new park/greenspace is springing up, probably on old railroad property.
Would anyone be interested in buying lofts at the Savoy on 100 alameda st? Within 1-2 blocks of union station, oliveras st, little tokyo and the LA civic center. Also close to the huge concentration of homeless along 5th st.
Just going around LA area I see new Condos/lofts/apt construction springing up in every part of the LA Metro region, especially in such areas as Mar vista, north Hollywood,Dwtn LA,USC area,alhambra and Long Beach central district. Either infill, teardown of old homes for plopping down condos,or building in formerly vacated industrial lots.
The trend seems to be to build close to or next to commercial/industrial zones, and in the case of the LA dtwn units, adjacent to public transport lines.
“Would anyone be interested in buying lofts at the Savoy on 100 alameda st?”
Never. I lived in NYC for years. LA’s downtown lacks cohesion and purpose.
The only Purpose of LA Dtwn is for the workers to work their 9 to 5 in the dtwn office blds and after that to scramble out of Dtwn ASAP.
LA dtwn core has to be surrounded by some of the grimiest scummy inner ring slum districts in America. Take your pick:Boyle heights, warehouse district, pico-union, Jefferson Park,Chinatown, Westlake,Rampart.
If the Voters approve measure H, the 1 billion dollar LA Affordable housing bond, there are lots of inner ring dumps which will provide ‘affordable’ living sheltor for the homeless.
Haven’t you heard, Boyle Heights is the new hip area. Everyone from Silverlake is moving there.
And Hollenbeck will be the next LA Gentrification hot zone. Bullet-ridden graffiti cinderblocks converted to art-deco lofts become the choice housing for the LA chic crowd.
Full page ad in the new homes advertising supplement in the Orange County Register – Pardee Homes Year-End Clearance
8 McMansions in 3 communities, 2 in Ladera Ranch and 1 in Vista Del Verde were discounted as much as $150,000. Only one was cut less than $100,000 at $55,000 off. On a percentage basis, the cuts ranged from -5 to -8.8% on these $1M plus homes.
In addition, special 3-2-1 buydown financing may be available which starts at 3.875% in Year 1, 4.857% in Year 2, and $5.875% in Years 3-5.
Existing home sales prices appear to be off $50-100K in Irvine from the Spring/Summer peak.
I posted this in another thread but thought it was interesting enough to post again here…
Here is another anecdotal story of a FB. My friends girlfried bought a home in Thousand Oaks, CA, back in 2004. She makes about 80-90k per year. she used a interest only, 103% financing and paid $515k. Well, 2.5 yrs later, my buddy tells me she is putting the house up for sale. Now I know she refi’d earlier this year to pull cash out and also had a HELOC 2nd to finance part of his failed business last year. He did not tell me the “equity” position as of this week based on the 1st and 2nd vs. selling price. He said they are asking for $589k. Making the situation even more odd he tells me she is moving her and her 2 kids into a 3 bedroom apt in TO - rent = $2600/mo. Furthermore, they both know the inventory is high - maybe 9-10 mos. Hummm…something just did not add up. Why would she move out before selling the house? So I looked the property up on title and it appears 2 weeks ago she had Ditech take out the Heloc of $80k with a stand alone second of $170k. I sense something is up. It looks like she will cash out the second and let the home go. But why move out now if you are going to let the house go? I think this stuff will become more common place as the market continues to tank.
Excuse my ignorance - what do you mean by looking the property up on title? There is a particular property for which I would like the same information.
You need to find someone who has access to title info (from a title co.). maybe a realtor or a mortgage lender. Then you can look up property info like: grant deeds, deeds of trust, sales pricing, etc.). Take care.
Hey crisrose-
If you email me or post the address, state and county, I will try to get you title information.
Prices are declining, but not all areas act the same
By Roger M. Showley
STAFF WRITER
November 5, 2006
Nationally and locally, home prices are trending downward for the first time in years, as buyers drive tougher bargains and some sellers, desperate to move, accept a cutback in their hoped-for windfall profits.
“I think it’s safe to say that prices are not going up anymore,” said Charlie Ahern, president of the Coronado Association of Realtors.
Judging by nearly two years’ worth of figures from DataQuick Information Systems, that is an understatement for his city.
DataQuick’s price reports back to January 2004 show that not only are single-family home prices down countywide on a year-over-year basis, but all except three ZIP codes in San Diego County have backed off their all-time high median prices.
Among neighborhoods with at least 10 resale-home transactions, Coronado is off the most, down by 63.4 percent – from a high of $3.2 million in February to the most current figure, $1.17 million in September.
However, Ahern said such a steep pullback as reported by DataQuick is not indicative of a sharp across-the-board decline in prices for the bayfront and seaside community.
“It would take quite a bit more data before we got a 50 percent drop,” he said. “The vast majority of people who are selling their homes are doing it for convenience. When they don’t get a decent price, they’ll just take them off the market. I’m noticing the volume has gone down a little bit because people are taking their homes off the market.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061105/news_1h05peak.html
Silent Fall has hit San Diego. There are no open house signs out this weekend, and the market seems to have simply died out. Maybe the news that Coronado Island prices are off by 63% has taken a little froth out of the local market?
Silent fall followed by a silent spring.
Sacramento worte an article today in the Opinion section that indicates home owners are complaining to the Bee for writing articles that are driving down their home prices. The Bee actually fought back against these insane people. Home prices are going down due to over inflated housing bubble burtsing. These people need to shut the hell up and blame their kids for their crappy life like they used to.
Saw a bank foreclosure ad in the Wash Post RE Classified ads today.
Very, very little is moving here on the main line of Philadelpia. We have seen 5000 sq. foot $900k homes priced down to $700k and still not sell. Of 30 properties we have been monitoring, 28 are still on the market, one was taken off, and one sold.