November 7, 2006

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For November 7, 2006

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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103 Comments »

Comment by jmf
2006-11-07 04:59:51

tower homebuildingorders “minus 4″!!!!!!!!!!

the winner of the ugliest warning is ….wci!

http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-11-07 05:36:45

Tower Inferno!

I agree. Absent a buyout WCI is on schedule to go BK by the end of second quarter 2007. They have about a must chance to close out those towers in the first quarter of 2007 as a snowball has in hell. WCI is going down!

Comment by Bill
2006-11-07 07:24:16

WCI is saying that they will make $1.25-2.00 next year. This must be based on some kind of a recovery in Florida(!) The stock popped 6% at the open but has settled down, but still in the positive range. I just don’t see how anyone can expect to build and sell condos in FL in the next few years.

Comment by dawnal
2006-11-07 07:44:35

As of 10:20am, WCI was up 3.86%. Just a coincidence that earnings plunged. Doesn’t mean a thing. Buy. Buy. Buy.

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Comment by Chip
2006-11-07 13:48:57

lol.

 
 
 
 
Comment by jmf
2006-11-07 09:30:15

upadte confernece call.

enjoy the part with

conodflip.com

 
 
Comment by Gekko
2006-11-07 05:03:15

-
Toll Brothers sees no end to home slump
Luxury home builder warns fourth quarter revenue, current year deliveries will miss forecasts, takes a hit from owned land.
November 7 2006: 7:20 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Toll Brothers became the latest builder to cut guidance as its founder said he sees no end of the deep slump in home building.

“We continue to look for signs that a recovery is imminent but can’t yet say that one is in sight,” said a statement from company Chairman and CEO Robert Toll. “We see some signs of pent-up demand when we have special sales events or new community openings. And in some markets, good weeks are interspersed amongst weaker ones.”

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/07/news/companies/toll_brothers/index.htm?postversion=2006110707

Comment by seattle price drop
2006-11-07 20:12:09

Somebody finally came out and said it without mincing words: “No End in Sight.”

Hallelujia.

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-07 05:03:47

From WSJ.com, “Toll Brothers (TOL) … cut its delivery guidance for the next fiscal year and said it doesn’t see a recovery in sight.”

Comment by IllinoisBob
2006-11-07 05:06:16

And the wise folks say the market for homes is STABILIZING ??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Comment by passthebubbly
2006-11-07 07:10:25

well yeah, it’s stabilizing to crappy.

Comment by MazNJ
2006-11-07 08:50:29

The second derivative of the pricing equation is stabilizing

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Comment by passthebubbly
2006-11-07 09:50:44

Not sure about that. We are certainly NOT at an inflection point (where d2y/dx2 goes from - to +). I think it’s getting more negative.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 15:28:07

Lereah wants everyone to believe the inflection point will come in 2007, but if past busts provide any guidance, it will come in 2010 or later…

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 12:40:23

No, the wise folks say the Housing Market *Collapse* is Stabilizing!

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 12:41:01
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Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-07 05:20:42

In addition, Toll’s

– Q3 orders fell to 1,035 from 2,426 a year earlier
– Revenues declined 10%
– Backlog fell 25%.
– Cancellations rose to 37% from 18%
– 25% of Q4 cancellations were from Orlando & N California
– Scaling back its land position; expect write-downs $50 - $100 mil.

 
 
Comment by Curt
2006-11-07 05:13:07

In 2005 and so far in 2006, Bruce Toll has cashed out over 184 million of Toll Bros stock. Probably just diversifying his portfolio.

Comment by crash1
2006-11-07 05:16:50

He should be able to ride the storm out pretty well with $184m in his checking account. Minus taxes of course.

 
 
Comment by Baltimark
2006-11-07 05:22:06

Article in the New York Times today. . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/07/realestate/07land.html?hp&ex=1162962000&en=e58395d5687120ee&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Over the weekend, they ran the NAR ad in the same section that they had a somewhat negative article about the national housing market.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/05/business/yourmoney/05view.html

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-07 05:22:43

I still can’t believe that Casey doesn’t know who’s responsible for property taxes.

Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 05:29:55

He has to be the dumbest, sleaziest little worm I’ve ever seen. And only 24 years old. Imagine the years of grifting he still has ahead of him.

Comment by ed in texas
2006-11-07 05:56:03

My prediction: Casey will star in Pelosi’s House hearings into predatory lending practices, circa spring/summer 2007.
For immunity and forgiveness, of course.

Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 05:58:49

Only one problem. He was no unwitting victim. He knew exactly what he was doing, which makes him no better than the “predatory” lenders. I would argue that he predated them!

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Comment by Robert Coté
2006-11-07 06:10:31

It appears more and more likely he thought he could blog his way out despite being told repeatedly that California prohibits his selling his story. He wasted 18 hours Sunday writing up the disasterous Phoenix trip. I’m convinced the only reason he’s still free is that the Feds and various DAs are squabbling over jurisdiction. The perp walk is gonna be legend second only to David Crisp’s impending stroll.

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 07:15:33

I agree. He is a singular idiot.

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-11-07 07:59:43

Agree on the Crisp comment - LOL!

 
Comment by bradthemod
2006-11-07 11:20:38

Scary thought. Tune on Oprah next spring and see Casey plugging a book about real estate crash that he was victim of. Or at least that would be one plug. Shows you that when things get tough, the tough can BS like there is no tomorrow.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Left LA Behind
2006-11-07 06:24:25

I have read some of your comments to Casey on his blog, Lou. You come across as a supporter of that chowder head.

Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-07 20:18:01

Not a supporter at all. I thought (and sometimes do still think) that he’ll skate. Stranger things have happened.

Comment by Left LA Behind
2006-11-07 23:45:32

Specimen Lou-to-Casey Comment : “Casey, I have to congratulate you. I have said for weeks now that I think you will escape the trap you are in.“.

Those are not encouraging words to this alleged felon?

Hmmm?

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Comment by walt526
2006-11-07 06:51:03

Color me highly skeptical. I’m 95% sure that Casey knows full well the ramifications but is just trying to incite posters by making idiotic statements in order to boast traffic to his blog. To what end, I’m not sure. But when he posts that he “forgot to ask about taxes” after dozens of posts from earlier threads are warning him about the non-dischargable liabilities that he’s incurring, I have to assume that he’s just trying to get a rise out of people. Likewise, when the only comment he responds to is the ADD test and then he posts “I scored a 39, what does this mean” I strongly suspect that he’s just fishing for more “You’re an idiot” posts.

At the very least, don’t take anything he states at face value and assume that he has an ulterior profit-seeking motives with everything he posts. At this point, he’s just hoping that if he can pump enough publicity into his blog eventually someone will give him some sort of book deal or CNBC show (you know, mental comfort food for greater fools). I also doubt that the whole contract debacle was genuine; my guess would be that the woman in Phoenix is some chick he met at a Charleton Sheets seminar and has been screwing over the past year on his “business trips” down to Arizona.

Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 07:17:21

She doesn’t look that hard up. He’d need a bag over his head.

Comment by fiat lux
2006-11-07 07:52:44

*spits coffee out onto monitor*

Good one. :D

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Comment by mrquoi
2006-11-07 07:54:01

Snort. Heh. I go away for a week and come back and you all are still kickin at on the Poster Idiot for the Housing Bubble. He is good enough looking that any jail, even the local municipal one before he gets transferred to a state jail out near Bakersfield (or whoever gets him) is going to be very, very hard for him.

Comment by invest3
2006-11-07 11:10:55

Maybe Casey and Easy Al could be cell mates.

 
 
 
Comment by fred hooper
2006-11-07 05:23:16

Deja-vu from Arizona, circa late 70’s/early 80’s, only this time around it will be far worse:
NY Times, November 7, 2006
“In Arizona, ‘For Sale’ Is a Sign of the Times”
http://tinyurl.com/yyouz6

 
Comment by Curt
2006-11-07 05:23:25

From the Vegas Reviewjournal:

“National studies have predicted double-digit declines in median home prices as part of the national housing slowdown, but that hasn’t happened in Las Vegas and probably won’t, association President Linda Rheinberger said.

These studies don’t give enough weight to local economic conditions, especially the lack of private land available for development and continued job and population growth that sets Southern Nevada apart from other regions of the country, she said.

“The history of our local market makes a double-digit decline highly unexpected, barring some sort of catastrophe,” Rheinberger said. “Instead, what we are seeing are continued signs of what is referred to as a ’soft landing,’ or a market correction.”"

It’s reassuring to know that Las Vegas is different!

Comment by passthebubbly
2006-11-07 07:14:06

I thought Vegas started dropping BEFORE everyone else did.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-11-07 07:57:00

If Vegas has 1,800 houses under 200K that just started or maybe they are talking about condos .I think those 200k homes are either on the outskirts or they use to be 270 k homes .

 
 
 
Comment by IllinoisBob
2006-11-07 05:25:24

… And the news keeps getting better !
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061107:MTFH86383_2006-11-07_12-53-48_N07366298&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage1
UPDATE 1-Beazer 4th-qtr profit falls 44 pct
Tue Nov 7, 2006 7:53am ET30
Liers, all a bunch of #$%@! liers NRA “Now is a good time to buy”

Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-11-07 05:48:08

“The company did not provide an estimate for earnings if home closings come in at the low end of its forecast because of its inability to predict its margins, the potential for additional impairments or further possible overhead reductions.”

That’s right don’t go there. No reason to predict losses which might raise the issue of busting a few covenants at best.

 
 
Comment by HonestAppraiser
2006-11-07 05:26:54

Someone should round up these sleaze balls and deport them back to Iraq
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjm4GaP8fmU

my god

Comment by scdave
2006-11-07 08:05:01

That was pretty friggin disgusting…..

 
 
Comment by turp182
2006-11-07 05:27:20

Here’s an article with a graphical look at two Scottsdale, AZ neighborhoods using tax records from Maricopa.gov. The price build up and the subsequent levelling of prices is clearly evident, and the data is over 8 months old (not sure why data is so behind on Maricopa.gov).

http://www.turpintime.com/ViewItem.aspx?ContentItem=632981842055467261

If anyone would be interested in an application that fetches Maricopa.gov tax records use the Contact link on the website (include your e-mail in the message). It does it by Book/Map (parcel system, also used by RE agents). It’s a VB.Net app, would need VS.net 2003/2005.

turp182

 
Comment by turp182
2006-11-07 05:34:48

Resending, first attempt didn’t show up after 15 minutes. Sorry if they double up.

Here’s a look at two specific neighborhoods in Scottsdale, AZ using tax records from Maricopa.gov. The price build up and subsequent levelling off is evident. And the data is 8 months old (not sure why) so most of 2006 isn’t on the graphs.

The Housing Bubble – A Neighborhood View

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-11-07 05:43:30

Home prices will fall 10% on average in 2007 and it will likely take three years to clear out the huge inventory of empty unsold homes currently in the market, according to a UBS report released Monday.

http://tinyurl.com/y9n7y7

She sees above-average growth in demand coming from minority groups, single people, and non-traditional families, such as single parents.

Ok, this speaks to my situation. And, sure, there’s a demand on my end. But only if the prices are right…

 
Comment by ed in texas
2006-11-07 05:51:45

Apparently some people are suspected of not actually SWALLOWING their Kool-Aid:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061106/lam040.html?.v=68

(C’mon, somebody out there’s gotta have some equity we can steal!)

 
Comment by JWM in SD
2006-11-07 05:54:06

One of our favorites is posting it up over at Bubble Meter. Va_Investor, come back…we need someone make fun of again.

Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 06:22:19

She doesn’t want me asking her about Naples.

But honestly, I thought she was full of hot air. Probably owns 2 houses, max.

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-11-07 06:40:45

Please don’t encourage her to come back here.

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-11-07 07:08:00

I 2nd the comments. VAIN_vestor was a total waste of time.

 
 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-11-07 06:01:48

in Bastin(boston) this weekend resturaunts packed- their ?RE started down early 05 and has tanked 15%- where’s the slowdown
are we UK 2004 ?

Comment by Northeastener
2006-11-07 06:49:48

I don’t get it myself. I would have expected a much bigger hit to our economy in Mass with housing way down. The only thing I can think of is that the job market and corporate profits are strong, so people still feel confident in spending.

Anecdote: The company I work for is in the commercial (spec) lighting business and sales have been strong year over year. I keep seeing new Infiniti’s/BMW’s/Volvo’s in the parking lot… and you don’t usually see people spend $40k on a car if they expect an economic downturn. It just goes to show the current psychology: “All is well, no problems here”.

Another anecdote: Visited Providence Place (upscale mall in downtown Providence, RI) on Sunday to start the Holiday shopping early. Seemed busy, which is the case whenever I’ve gone there. No slow down with the consumer yet.

I don’t know if we have to wait until after elections or what until we start to see panic, but I can’t imagine this “Hindu Cow” mentality can last…

Comment by fiat lux
2006-11-07 07:58:15

This is real life, not a TV movie. Things rarely happen as quickly or as cleanly as you think they are going to. I seriously doubt we’ll see a sudden housing crash, rather, it’s going to be a long, slow crumbling for the next 18 months or so.

We read in the histories about the 1929 Depression and the popular perception is that one day, there was a booming party going on and the next, bread lines and apple sellers on every street corner … but even in that catastrophic event it didn’t happen overnight.

Comment by SUSPICIOUS 2
2006-11-07 11:55:39

Yes that’s right. One bottom was in 1933 and another in 1937. But all through the 30’s (up until war spending) it was tough times.
These things don’t happen over night, it’s a slow bleed, a train wreck in slow motion. And it’s relative to those who have decent jobs and those who don’t (or of course, jobs at all).
25% Unemployment in the great depression. I have read, if you had a job you could make it. Don’t forget the bank closures and the gold and silver recalls. Tough measures for tough times.
Are they coming back?

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Comment by tj & the bear
2006-11-07 12:40:19

In spades.

 
 
 
 
Comment by dwr
2006-11-07 07:13:26

A house in my neighborhood just sold. So much for the housing bubble…

 
 
Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-11-07 06:08:48

Beazer Homes net income spikes
but

Ian J. McCarthy, Beazer Homes president and CEO. “Despite our strong close of fiscal 2006, most markets across the country continue to experience higher levels of resale home inventories, lower levels of demand for new homes, significant increases in cancellation rates and significantly higher discounting. As it is difficult to predict the duration of these factors, we have proactively taken steps to align our overhead structure and capital spending with our expectations for a reduced level of home closings in fiscal 2007.”

The company said it recently reduced its number of employees by 1,000, or 25 percent.

“We also reduced our controlled lot count by over 15 percent during the fourth quarter by eliminating non-strategic positions to align our land supply with our current expectations for home closings,”

 
Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-11-07 06:10:50

Technical Olympic delays quarterly earnings:

it requires additional time to file its Form 10-Q for the third quarter ended Sept. 30 due to a change in its financial-statements presentation and the expectation it will report “a significant change in its results of operations” due to asset impairment charges.

Comment by Eric
2006-11-07 07:15:15

anybody know much else about this company? is this a good one to expect to go under, and thus buy puts on?

Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 07:18:21

Check the open interest and short interest before you do that. If it’s too high, don’t do it.

 
Comment by Bill
2006-11-07 07:26:52

Neither TOA or CHCI have options (to the best of my knowledge)

 
 
 
Comment by We Rent!
2006-11-07 06:10:53

California State Teacher’s Retirement System:

A day late and a dollar short…

http://www.calstrs.com/Newsroom/news090706.aspx

Comment by Chip
2006-11-07 07:15:05

“moving to a higher risk, higher return asset mix.”

You think this is a good thing?

Comment by scdave
2006-11-07 08:12:26

I read recently that CalPeers needs to earn a 9% rate of return to cover their pension garuntee’s…I am not sure of the truth to this but if so it seems like they need to take greater risk to be able to cover the nut….

Comment by SUSPICIOUS 2
2006-11-07 12:01:38

Cal Pers started reducing their Real Estate exposure last year or the year before.
Maybe I’m hoping for the best (being a member), but this is a good sign.

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Comment by Hoz
2006-11-07 13:02:17

I would have suspected that 9% is high. However I saw the breakdown of Fords unfunded/funded pension plan and the plan is written as an 8% growth. They must use the same idiot advisers. With risk reward/ratios skewed, (IMHO) the chances for an economic meltdown have increased - a bunch of morons chasing unmanageable risk for an extra .5% return. No risk, markets only go up.

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Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 15:24:50

Thanks for the reminder to get my dough out of CalPers before it tanks…

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 15:26:38

Oops — meant CalStrs… (several of us are confused on this alphabet soup business)

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2006-11-07 07:03:34

From MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15551056/
—–
Credit score changes could spark housing boom
Real estate agents new method of calculating would bring in Latinos

The slumping housing market could get a $200 billion boost from new immigrant home buyers if mainstream lenders start using alternative methods to score credit, a national group of Hispanic real estate agents said Friday.

A handful of new credit reporting systems — already used by 200 real estate brokers, community groups and mortgage counselors nationwide — allows lenders to calculate risk by evaluating a prospective client’s utility bills, rent checks and other payments…

In Fresno, the housing advocate ACORN Housing Corp. helps clients secure loans by writing alternative credit profiles, which often draw on months of data from telephone bills and employment records, said Lydia Lopez, the group’s local manager.
—–

This doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Paying rent is usually harder than paying credit-card bills.

Comment by Pete
2006-11-07 07:41:58

Yes, that’s what we need. More innovative ways to get people signed up for loans they can’t afford!

 
Comment by Hoz
2006-11-07 12:55:12

This has been available nationwide for years and is assumed to have been widely used in California for a large number of “Liars Loans”. Until recently, 2002, you did not even need a social security number to get a loan and there are still programs in place for individuals without social security cards.

Comment by nhz
2006-11-08 03:29:47

in the UK, some mortgage shops will provide you with a new (fake) identy card and work history at a little extra charge, if you want. In the Netherlands the norm that max mortgage = 3x proved income (with at least 20% down) has been gradually adapted to mortgage = 8-10x stated income (and instead of a downpayment, the mortgage can be 110-120%).

Credit history, income etc., it’s all totally irrelevant in the EU bubble markets; welcome to the new finance economy. As long as the FEDs allow all this fraud to go on there is plenty of room for home prices, credit, financial sector profits etc. to expand further. At least in Europe it is very clear that financial authorities are perfectly happy with all the fraud that is going on; I think in the US it isn’t much different.

 
 
 
Comment by nhz
2006-11-07 07:09:59

probably has been posted before, but just in case: the virtual property market is booming! e.g. http://tinyurl.com/92ca8

Our regional Dutch newspaper spent more than half a page on the fact that people are getting rich from selling RE and being a landlord in some virtual reality games. Just wonder, do they have flippers, housing bubbles and housing crashes there too? Of course, for our newspaper this just prooves again that RE is the sure way to get rich. In the Netherlands the housing bubble is still alive and kicking with price growth accelerating again, interest and mortgage rates near four-century lows and average price gains for individual homes close to +1000% over the last 15 years or so.

 
Comment by agentjmf
2006-11-07 07:12:03

Does anyone know of a good blog about the commerical real estate bubble? specifically, multi-residential? thanks.

 
Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2006-11-07 07:48:40

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/1106.html

Why rates won’t be cut in the midst of next years housing implosion.

 
Comment by Austin
2006-11-07 08:39:06

Surveillance video shows Bruno’s car pulling up to the plaza as the man inside steals the coins. The name of the realty company for which he once worked — Home Discovery — is emblazoned on the side of the car.

http://www.local10.com/news/10262433/detail.html

 
Comment by John Law
2006-11-07 08:41:52

VHB, I’mm sure you’ll be interested in this.

“Production cutbacks by North American automakers led to a 41 per cent profit drop at Magna International, the Ontario-based auto parts giant said Tuesday.”

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2006/11/07/magna.html

 
Comment by Lo in Nor Cal
2006-11-07 09:14:19

Hello, fellow bloggers. wondering if anyone can help me with information on the market for this town. “Hot Springs Village” in Arkansas. This is what my mother just wrote me. “Hot Springs Village real estate market is hot”…lol Yes, she is a little on the crazy side but, I wanted to ask you “experts” on this location. Thanks so much and I love this site! it’s the best one out there.

Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 10:04:28

I remember seeing multiple Hot Springs Village lots for sale on Ebay for next to nothing. Tell her to call 911 and ask for Ponch :)

 
Comment by Chip
2006-11-07 14:17:00

It’s the place touted by Eric Estrada. That should tell you enough.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 10:04:57

Pretty funny visual on one of my favorite stocks

http://www.underthecounter.net/archives/2006/11/crox_devours_be.html

 
Comment by Lo in Nor Cal
2006-11-07 10:46:42

txchick, thanks for your comment, however i don’t really understand it. lol
so, what do you think is the future of this area?
Thanks for your help.

Comment by chilidoggg
2006-11-07 10:57:25

it means don’t ask for Jon, he’s too busy beating his wife.

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 11:38:31

I wouldn’t buy anything there with any expectation of appreciation. If they want to live there (it is a pretty area), then go in and lowball. I doubt that Arkansas will ever become a “must own” destination. Another state with very low median income and not may well paying jobs.

 
 
Comment by Lo in Nor Cal
2006-11-07 11:05:58

It means none of you know either :-)

 
Comment by Lo in Nor Cal
2006-11-07 11:17:08

I have been reading up on the current market all year on a regular basis and I have shared the downturn to my mother. However, she insists that Arkansas is different. lol I just wanted to give her factual information for this area she thinks is so different.
There is a marketing company there called telling everyone how prices are going up so they need to buy now..hahahaha.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 15:29:08

Arkansas is different, my hairdresser told me so. She is willing to invest in Arkansas but not California, as our prices are too high.

 
Comment by Big V
2006-11-07 16:01:12

I know this is a little late, but maybe you should tell her to contact the newspaper there and ask them if there is a good source of data for the area. Something like DataQuick, only for Arkansas. Hopefully the newspaper won’t lead her to far astray!

 
Comment by johnfromia
2006-11-07 16:18:41

I don’t specifically know about Hot Springs, but my parents had a place in Bella Vista in the NW corner of the state where they have several golf courses (126 holes of golf and some manmade lakes). Basically a community 10 miles or so from Bentonville created out of nothing but hills by an outfit called Cooper Communities. They’re one of these places that has gotten people to come for “free vacations” and then hit them with the hard sell to buy a lot or build a house. It’s a nice area if you like golf, but there has been an unbelievable amount of building going on in that area in the last 5+ years, and there doesn’t seem to be a land shortage to say the least.

My parents built a house and then sold it a couple of years ago and didn’t make any money doing it. Given that that was the case a couple of years ago, I can’t imagine things are red hot now. But it’s a nice place to visit if you like golf. Maybe in a few years you might be able to go in and lowball on a used townhouse or something, but I sure wouldn’t be looking for much if any appreciation.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2006-11-07 11:19:17

Wonder how many have perpetuated their middle class lifestyle a little longer than they should have, thanks to continual dipping into the equity of their house, to keep up with the jones’s…? (not you Ben)

Any guesses to how many people in a city like el lay, fit that dynamic?

Comment by chilidoggg
2006-11-07 16:53:30

a lot

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-11-07 12:31:48

Here’s one for Gekko, the “perma bull”

A Great Time to Short Stocks
By Chris Laudani
Street Insight Contributor
11/7/2006 1:59 PM EST
I don’t understand why Doug Kass is saying that short-sellers have gone the way of the dodo. Lighten up! (To see Doug’s response to this, please click here.)

Sure, if you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, you probably want to reach in and pull out a kidney. But as I see it, there have been plenty of opportunities to short all year long, and it seems to be getting better.

Tech Is Dreck

As Doug would say, tech is dreck. The PC business has been a total disaster, and just about every PC company missed consensus expectations in October.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) got chopped in half. Intel (INTC) is down 24% year-over-year.

Marvell (MRVL) guided down, and Seagate (STX) missed. Both stocks were savaged.

It’s only been the past few months that Dell (DELL) has had any up days. And despite the cheerleading, Dell is still down 20% year-to-date.

Those were easy shorts. Heck, you didn’t even have to do any work to find those.

The whole “Vista is gonna bail us out” crowd is setting you up to short ‘em again. It doesn’t get easier than that.

How about the semiconductors? Which other group is more fun to short? The analog names have been a mess. Qualcomm (QCOM) is down 30%. Analog Devices (ADI) is down 15%. Maxim (MXIM) is down 23% year-to-date.

Right now, a whole bunch of names have out of-control inventory. Those babies are going to fall to earth faster than Skylab.

Shop for Downside Potential

There is a blowup a month in the specialty retail business. Chico’s (CHS) is down 50% year-to-date. Talk about out of fashion!

You don’t want to short specialty retail? Too dicey? OK, how about the discounters? Take Dollar General (DG) — please. The stock is down 26% year-to-date. How about Home Depot (HD) , which is having another year of underperformance with a drop of 10% year-to-date?

Or how about Target (TGT) ? You think those margins are going to hold up into the holiday season? Think again. Target has underperformed since 2004. It’s a widely held stock, but still a clunker. I don’t know how anyone could beat the market over the past two years with Target in the portfolio.

What’s holding up Best Buy (BBY) ? Nothing. It will get creamed when investors figure out that flat-panel sales are slowing and margins are about to circle the bowl.

‘Tis the Season

I could go on and on, but why bother? It’s been a great year to short and to be short. The bulls should enjoy their few months in the spotlight because earnings growth is slowing. Next year, the slope of the second derivative of S&P 500 earnings estimates will be negative. It will become increasingly difficult for long-only managers to make money in the market. Live it up.

The economy continues to slow. When this is over, the Special Victims Unit is going to have to investigate the death of Goldilocks. Talk about being ripped from the headlines.

Comment by Gekko
 
 
Comment by ACH
2006-11-07 13:08:41

Hmmm, just exactly what is the “middle class lifestyle”? Escalades, Hummers, and 5000 sqft sheetrock barns? It seems to me that all of the crap and “bling” that is being marketed as a “must have” and “can’t do without” is actually a waste of time, effort, money, and resources.
Roidy

 
Comment by PDXrenter
2006-11-07 15:17:30

Every day there’s one expert or another calling a bottom & being quoted by the MSM. Things have just started gaining momentum towards the bottom - we’re not even a year into the bust. When the dotcom crash began, in the summer of 2000, there were all kinds of ‘experts’ talking about a V-shaped recovery vs a U-shaped recovery.

The housing market is in for an L-shaped recovery.

 
Comment by goedeck
2006-11-07 15:36:56

Ben, I posted this query on the Montana post a few days ago, but I didn’t see it, so I’ll repost:
Are they going ahead with that huge Golden Valley development in AZ? I believe they were going to build thousands of new homes, and they would supposedly commute to LV. I t seems totally insane to me. Thanx

Comment by shari-az
2006-11-07 17:47:37

They are still taking lot reservations. Apparently they have close to 1000, almost entirely from Las Vegas speculators. They have built several houses about 10 miles from the “entrance” to Pravada as they call it. We went out to see today and took some pictures. There is a long thread on Topix about this development and I couldn’t believe the comments, I had to see it myself. http://www.topix.net/forum/city/kingman-az/TCO9VM6L1QSNOT7PK Very unbelievable. They have built houses in the middle of nowhere, the only thing around, except desert, are a few parcels that look like communes filled with trash, dozens of cars and trailers. They have no utilities yet. They are close to 20 miles from the Kingman city limits, 10+ miles of it primitive dirt roads. That means they are probably at least 120 miles from Las Vegas. The builder paid very little for the land and now apparently everything in Golden Valley is “priceless”.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-07 21:25:55

In light of Rove’s overwhelming confidence, it looks like he was fooled by randomness, or else fooling us… Are there any housing market implications to the Republicans losing the House, or is it just going to be more of the same?
————————————————————————————————-
Democrats seen winning control of House
Three seats shy of Senate majority
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:21 AM ET Nov 8, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Democrats were poised to gain control of the House Tuesday night, ending 12 years of Republican rule in a midterm election that will likely re-shape the final two years of George W. Bush’s presidency.

Democrats made a net gain of 18 seats, enough for a two-seat majority in the 435-seat House. Numerous races nationwide remained to be decided, but several news organizations, including CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press projected Democrats would end the night in control of the House.

“We are now tonight on the brink of a great Democratic victory,” said Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who is in line to become House speaker.
Exit polls showed that the Iraq war and congressional scandals weighed on Republican candidates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B84D85033%2D5A0D%2D40CC%2DB647%2D7A4C2C35CF13%7D&siteid=

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-11-07 21:28:49

Republicans got spanked today — good. The GOP showed itself to be every bit as corrupt and venal as the Democrats, and totally beholden to the “monied interests” and military-industrial complex that Thomas Jefferson and “Ike” warned were the greatest threats to the Republic. The Democrats are still the party of social parasites, but true Republicans (i.e. socially and fiscally responsible) might finally have an opportunity to take back the party from the neo-cons and Wall Street weasels who hijacked it under the Bush Administration.

Buy-bye and good riddance, Republican ex-incumbents. You betrayed the productive classes in this country, and today we settled accounts.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2006-11-08 07:05:58

“Buy-bye and good riddance, Republican ex-incumbents. You betrayed the productive classes in this country, and today we settled accounts.”
Amen, brother Sammy. This Republican blogger voted almost all Democrat. The message needed to be sent to the party to get back to representation!

 
 
 
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