“Potential Buyers Waiting To See If Prices Fall”: Texas
The Star Telegram reports from Texas. “Existing-home sales in North Texas slipped again in October. The 4 percent drop from year-ago levels was the seventh down month this year. ‘It’s really crazy right now,’ said (realtor) Jane Crook in Colleyville. ‘It’s definitely a buyer’s market.’”
“Crook said job growth and movement into the Dallas-Fort Worth area are solid, but they’re not keeping up with the inventory that homeowners are putting on the market. ‘We’re getting way out of whack,’ Crook said. ‘It’s every area.’”
“In October, there were 45,715 homes on the market, up 11 percent from a year ago. That rise in inventory in an area that is already a buyer’s market, combined with nationwide reports of an overheated real estate market, makes prospective buyers think twice about committing to purchasing a home, said Nancy Stephens in ZipRealty’s Irving office.”
“‘We call it a ‘pause’ in DFW, instead of a bubble,’ she said. She describes it as a time when buyers say, ‘Let’s wait and see what happens.’”
“Builders are adding to the supply of homes for sale, she said, offering aggressive incentives that the average homeowner has trouble matching. ‘The buyers are asking for so much, as far as closing costs,’ she said.”
“A homeowner in northeast Fort Worth has reduced the selling price and increased the remodeling allowance. A seller in Haltom City is offering a $500 Lowe’s gift card to the buyer. Homes in east Fort Worth, Summerfields in north Fort Worth and North Richland Hills are touting pre-foreclosure bargains.”
“The median price of a home sold in October, $143,000, is down 3 percent from the October 2005 level. This is the second month in a row that the median price has fallen. Before last month, the median price hadn’t fallen in two years.”
“Crook said concessions by sellers may be hurting home prices, but she also cited the high number of foreclosures. The number of foreclosure postings has skyrocketed in recent years to the highest levels seen since the late 1980s.”
“”Real estate agents note that buyers are coming from the East and West coasts to buy investment and residential property.”
The Dallas Morning News. “The slump in home sales during the last few months is a sign that the local housing market has weakened. Agents say that potential buyers are in no hurry to make a decision. Some are waiting to see if prices fall.”
“‘My own house is on the market, so I have a different perspective,’ said Jim Fite, president of Dallas’ Century 21 Judge Fite Realtors. ‘We’ve had more than two dozen people look at it, and we’ve had no offers.’”
“‘It’s just a matter of time before the right buyer comes along,’ he said. ‘But we are a little bit discouraged that we haven’t had an offer in 2 ½ months.’”
“‘The unemployment rate is low, and there is no reason for people not to be buying and selling real estate,’ Mr. Fite said. ‘I don’t think we are going to have a serious slowdown – maybe a blip.’”
The Tulsa World reports from Oklahoma. “Shrugging off the national real estate slump has come to an end in the Tulsa area, where home sales dropped 13 percent in September from the month before.”
“Tulsa home values took a sizeable hit as well. The average price of a home dropped 3 percent from the month before to $146,233, while the median price dropped 4 percent to $121,000, the second straight significant monthly drop.”
“(Broker) David Momper said the cool-off was unexpected. ‘Typically, September is a spike in our market, and it didn’t happen this year,’ he said. ‘We’re not sure why.’”
“Momper said many buyers and sellers are leaving the market due to waning confidence. ‘It’s scared money,’ he said. ‘We’re not sure what’s scaring people.’” “Wheeler said negative news about the national real estate market, especially in coastal areas where prices and sales are plummeting after years of dramatic increases, has influenced local buyers and sellers.”
“‘The news you get on the housing market is negative and depressing, and I’ve heard negativity from the public as well,’ he said. He predicted that local home sales will stay slow through the end of the year.”
LOL, I won’t say a word.
Except those places in Tarrant County (ex-Colleyville) are DOA.
Txchick, the YOY drop in sales, and the YOY increase in inventory certainly don’t appear on their face to be huge problems. But, given that YOY prices have fallen nevertheless (two months in a row, no less), which is something we don’t normally see absent huge increases in inventory and big drops in sales, this sounds to me as if the problem is much more one of exceptionally terrible lending standards, as opposed to speculation. I understand that speculators have, in fact, been active … I’m just wondering if you would say that lending standards are the core problem.
Yup. I’ve said that all along, there is as much or more lending fraud appraisal chicanery and stupid speculation going on in Dallas as any bubble area. I’d say more.
We all think of txchick when we see a Texas article. I’ve spent time in the dfw/fort worth area recently, and the builders are putting up houses as fast as they can, yet there is still empty flat land as far as the eye can see. Anf or some reason, people in Texas are interested in buying “used” houses about as much as the the rest of us want to buy used underwear.
“‘We call it a ‘pause’ in DFW, instead of a bubble,’ she said.”
- These are my favorites. I love to hear what people like to call things to make themselves feel better, despite their own knowledge. I can call my old Ford Ranger a Porsche, too….
(realtor) Jane Crook…………
What fitting last name.
Thats for sure. LMAO
You beat me to the punch. But you can’t really blame her for being a realtor. I mean, if in school your teachers always refer to you as “crook,” then it must force you into real estate.
And when prices do fall, do buyers buy? Of *course* not. They do what any smart person does — they sit back and wait for prices to fall some more. And then what happens?
Prices go down, down, down, down, down….
Brokers can call it a “pause” if it makes themselves feel better. But the rest of us call that a “crash”.
Remember People are dumb and a person is smart.
Let everyone who took ATM cash out of their homes fall on their sword.
Seller’s are a dumb!!
‘We call it a ‘pause’ in DFW, instead of a bubble,’ she said.
You all can call it what you want, but that will not protect you from the inevitable. Just look how well this word-play game worked for our good friend David Lereah. Listen to the bloggers America! There were/are good reasons for these places low prices! I am starting to enjoy this implosion a bit too much.
“A seller in Haltom City is offering a $500 Lowe’s gift card to the buyer.”
AWESOME! That ought to draw the crowds in…
Seriously, this may very well be the lamest “incentive” we have thus far seen. I thought people in California were stupid, but clearly Texas wants to give us a run for our money. I guess this should come as no surprise from the state that gave us GWB.
(*disclaimer: I voted for Bush in 2000, but never again. He and his goons have destroyed the party, and I now register under “decline to state”)
“Honey. I’ve got a great idea. Instead of making those repairs, let’s just advertise to prospective buyers that our house needs some work. That oughta make it sell faster.”
Right.
Wow. what an amazing incentive. I’d like to see this person’s idea when they advertise their auto for sale. “I am offering a free Vanillaroma Tree air freshener with any full price offer to help offset the slight fish smell”
Gee. He knocked $500 off the price. This is just plain pathetic.
You don’t understand. $500 is a lot for a house out there.
Gee. He knocked $500 off the price. This is just plain pathetic.
You’re right!
I always thought Texans always did it all in a BIG, BIG way.
Guess it must be the Wal-Mart impact on thinking these days.
$500 might be a lot in Haltom City.
You know the saying, big hat no cattle. That sums this one up.
For those that have never been to Haltom city, its an extremely poor suburb of Fort Worth. Where as most towns are afraid of Wal*Mart coming in a driving the local merchants out of business, Haltom City actually went to Wal*Mart and asked if they would please put in a store as all of the local merchants were already gone and they wanted a place to shop within the city limits and not mention they were excited to get those 500 new jobs.
Surely it has to be different here in Oklahoma. Those coasts are the problem areas. Here in the heart of the country we would never use real estate for speculation, ARMs and I/O to buy or overbuild!
‘the median price dropped 4 percent to $121,000, the second straight significant monthly drop.’
This takes us back to the economic supply/demand relationship. Builders are still making money at $121k, so will continue to work until the price drops enough to stop them. This is why artificially high prices are the seed of their own demise, and an example of how a housing bubble finds its way into places like Tulsa.
“‘The unemployment rate is low, and there is no reason for people not to be buying and selling real estate,’ Mr. Fite said. ‘I don’t think we are going to have a serious slowdown – maybe a blip.’”
Right…..
His firm mainly deals in the the Oak Cliff and southern Dallas County areas. Lower end stuff. He’s in no position to make a market call.
This is OT, but is anyone watching gold and silver today? Wow. Looks to me like people are beginning to get out of US dollars in droves. Silver could very well go crazy!
Indeed. There was a feeling that once the election was finished, the fundamentals would take over in both precious metals and oil.They had to hammer the commodities to make it seem like inflation was under control and happy days were here again.
I paid 2.00 a gallon at Wal Mart in Albuquerque two days ago and saved the receipt.
Yep…, makes me happy I switched from RE investing to PM in March 2005.
Here’s one for HFA. “Most managers are one bad trade away from flipping burgers for a living”
http://www.underthecounter.net/archives/2006/11/cheezeborger_ch.html
txchick posts “Most managers are one bad trade away from flipping burgers for a living”
Do you recall Jackob Ryan and the Jackob Ryan Internet Fund? It opened about 3 months before the dot-gone bust at 10 bucks and got over 12 and change…. then he rode it down during the “correction’ and later “the buying oppertiunty” it was at 0.29 cents at one point.
He was about 24 years old too.
I forgot to add it opened with over 300 million dollars. Mainly from his reputation from his last firm. He demanded the Sun and Stars…. they told him to pound sand and take a walk.
“(Broker) David Momper said the cool-off was unexpected. ‘Typically, September is a spike in our market, and it didn’t happen this year,’ he said. ‘We’re not sure why.’”
Of course you don’t know why the market is slowing. Analyzing the market is not your expertise. You’re just a Realtor, after all.
They should at least interview one economist or someone who isn’t a booster. Too bad Danielle DiMartino is gone.
Well, David Tice is in Dallas but he’s persona non grata at this rally.
Momper said..‘We’re not sure why.’
and
‘We’re not sure what’s scaring people.’
I was going to suggest that he do some reading here, but thought better of it. If he has not figured it out by now, I don’t suppose it would enlighten him.
In Austin, we have a sellers market with a very quick turnover and prices are rising. However at the same time, all the builders are offering incentives like free TV’s, granite counter tops, wood floors. Just check the real estate section of the Sunday paper. There are tons of ads from every major builder. It’s kinda weird. Incentives are becoming the norm – just like cars. People have grown to expect them.
Not that I can see…
Housing Tracker
And when those expected incentives just don’t have the same impact, then come the true price drops…then the larger prices drops…then the final chase to the bottom. The bulk of those poor souls that need to sell, or that thought houses meant easy money will never get in front of the builders - and they don’t know it yet. Sad, sad, sad.
I say builders should of gave the incentives of wood floors ,granite counter tops etc. to sell the POS to begin with during the boom .The builders were just giving stock houses and you had to pay to get decent floors ,counters or even a fireplace in some cases . I bet the average cost of upgrades were at least 30k for most people buying new houses during the boom ,(costing the builder a third of the cost ).
Good point, Wiz…
Heaven help you if you’re a FB’er who bought the “boom-price” no frills stripper package for top $$$ and now you gotta refi that sucker against builder sales which now include that $30k of extra build quality amenities.
So throw in a negative depreciation time adjustment plus quality adjustment, and whoo-boy, adios equity.
Best call for your local crooked appraiser to get these deals thru.
I talked to builders in Austin who offered 10% off their “list price” within 10 minutes of talking to them over the phone. Any price increases are an illusion
Let them burn on those holding costs for a while. A 250K is a 1500$ loss per month. If values are not going up holding really does not save you a lot of money. The water behind the dam is rising.
“He predicted that local home sales will stay slow through the end of the year.” WOW, that is some cutting edge insight right there.
Off topic, sorry. CNN is reporting that 60minutes Ed Bradley just died of leukemia. Didnt even knw he was ill.
crap.
I just saw that as well. Too bad, he was one of the few reporters I could watch. Intelligent and well-spoken. Traits all too rare in today’s television news. I wonder who could fill his shoes?
Yes he was
I just came back from Dallas and house construction is rampant everywhere. We drove through Cedar Hill, Red Oak, Forney, Lancaster, and a lot of areas in Dallas and the nationwide builders have a lot of inventory going up and signage is heavy along the roadside.
Downtown and uptown Dallas is heavy with high end condo construction- and none of it was cheap. Here are a few places I saw:
http://www.victoryresidences.com/
http://mandarindallas.com/
http://www.theresidencesdallas.com/
There are countless small projects in the area, but didn’t get there names.
I know Dallas has a ton of old and new money, but how many 400k+ condos can the place take? I would watch Dallas as the next condo bubble location.
Houston has numerous new high-rise condo towers, built, planned and being built. Last time I looked at the spreads in the Sunday papers, they were offering to pay the HOA for the first year, yada yada.
All three of those condo projects are going to be white elephants, IMO.
My dad has a friend that bought a bunch of condos near downtown during the bust in the 80s. She got them for about 20k each. She has rented them since and is doing very well.
I have one of those friends too. But neither of them bought at the top of the market like now and those condos aren’t even in the ballpark of the ones linked above.
Interesting because they are all exclusive hotel chains. I can’t necessarily predict the demise of these fine hotels, so I’d be interested to see what happens to these in the next couple of years.
I noticed that all of the top-floor “custom” units at the Victory are still available. As large chains, I can’t see these projects going under, but I wonder if they will need to change course and make it 100% hotel? Like Brandon said, how many high-end condos can Dallas really support? I thought most of the well-to-do in Texas preferred BIG homes on BIG single-family lots. Personally, I think this current buzz about a resurgence in urban living is nothing but hype. I wouldn’t necessarily mind it, but I think I am in the minority.
They do prefer living in huge McShitboxes on big lots and I’ve beaten this one to death too. All this urban condo hype is to suck in the out of state speculators. There’s very little end user demand among the Dallas locals for that type of housing.
While there is demand for Mcmansion type homes in DFW, the same can be observed for many markets across the US. It is interesting to note however that dallas area nabes have taken some steps to limit their (Mcmansions) intrusion into the older areas.
Granted the zoning provisions referenced in the articles covers only 2 areas, I understand there are proposals underway in the Lakewood, White Rock Lake and Old East Dallas areas as well.
http://recenter.tamu.edu/TGrande/vol12-1/1713.html
Too late. They’ve already trashed those areas.
Film at 11.
I thank the Lord every day for the sale of my Plano house in May!! Eventhough I am $20k poorer I am very thankful!! The house sold in a week and I am so glad!! It is so nice to sit back and watch things collapse. People said it couldn’t go any lower in Dallas - they were WRONG!!
LARenter, you sold your house in Plano and moved to LA? At one point we were considering to move from LA to Plano. Can you share your reasons for moving? Is Plano not a better place to live than LA? Thanks.
Oh geez!!!! Diet Coke hits the screen!!!!
No, Plano is NOT a better place to live in LA. It may be a better place to live than Alcatraz but even that’s a stretch!
When I think of LA, I always remember that truck driver Reginald Denney that got off the Santa Monica freeway in South Central LA and was pulled from his truck and beaten with a claw hammer.
There are not any places like that in Plano. After all, its the town Ross Perot built.
After all, its the town Ross Perot built.
And that alone should be enough to keep any sane person out.
Yeah, in LA they have a riot once every 30 years and one or two people are killed and it’s all over the news. In Plano they drag queers behind their pickup trucks every weekend but it doesn’t make the news…because hey, it was only a queer.
I guess if you are a white straight (or at least in the closet) male and you like hanging out with other people just like you, then yes, Plano is better for you.
Oh, please. We are thinking of moving to Texas and Plano is one of the places at the top of our list.
Do you know how we found out about it? When my wife’s grad school friend moved there. My wife’s friend is black. She’s as ultra-liberal as they come, a raving lefty who is always going on about racial conspriacies. In fact, she moved to DFW for the express reason that it is home to the highest number of black, college-educated, single, black men in the country.
They love Plano. Did anyone burn a cross on their lawn when they moved into the neighborhood? Uh, no. Her husand is a huge, muscular black man. Does he get harassed by redneck police when he is out jogging late at night? Never. Are their children — who have African names — subject to taunts and abuse at school? No. Do the neighors ostracize them? Not at all, they come over for Bar-B-Q’s all the time.
It’s really unfair to refer to southerners as racist bigots.
oh yeah. totally unfair and unfounded.
I think it depends on what you want. I have lived in both places and would choose Plano over LA any day. I guess I am just more for the nice suburban family lifestyle. I don’t know if I would move back. The schools are great, but drugs are rampant.
Hi CarolinaBuyer,
There are drugs dealing in Plano? Even in West Plano? I thought it’s one of the safest city to live.
It was a job relocation that forced the move. I do like Plano better than where we currently live (Valencia), but I definately do not miss the crappy weather, Texas attitudes and lack of scenery! I was really sick in TX (bad allergies). I now feel great! Be warned that if you do not already have allergies you will develop them when you move to Dallas. It is a matter of where it is located and the winds. I agree the schools in Plano are much better than LA and the family life is better, but the overall TEXAS thing sucks! If you NEVER have to leave Plano life will be great (other than the crappy weather - 100 degrees at midnight and tornadoes). We miss Plano, but I definately do not miss the Texas attitude!! We are Midwesterners who were considered “Yankees” in TX. They really, really hate people from California. Be warned!!
Another tip….. Whatever you do… DO NOT buy a house there!! It took me 2 years to sell my beautiful home in Northwest Plano!! I wish to God we would have rented! Both times we sold houses we lost $$$. RENT, RENT, RENT!!! It is not worth the nightmare!! Only buy if you are never planning on leaving! If you are not sure if you are going to stay please RENT!! It is almost impossible to sell a house in DFW. The buyers want the moon and stars and have totally irrational expectations! You should have read some of the comments from the realtors who toured my house. It was truly amazing!! I wanted to kill some of the people for their smart a*s comments!!
Plano is a true stinkhole as are most of its inhabitants. Most of them don’t have enough cash to survive one lost paycheck yet they have attitude to burn. I get the heebie jeebies just going to Costco down there. I’d have to end my life if I was forced to live there.
I just got back from a week of wild pig hunting in the Breckenridge/Albany/Stamford TX outback.
Whew…
I have never seen such hostile, harsh, nasty terrain in all my life.
The -exurbs is for pikers.
Interesting! I didn’t know that they hate Californians. This definitely makes me to reconsider. Again, appreciate your sharing and hope you enjoy your staying here. Valencia is nice and less crime than LA. I live in South Pasadena — nice area but surrounding by bad areas.
I have lived in Cali all my life (both North and South) and my sister lived in Texas for a few years, so I visited a lot. I can’t say which is better, but my observations are that weather is important to many people, especially those of us who are used to pleasant, mild weather year-round. Cali takes the cake there. It also depends on your religious and political viewpoint somewhat. Liberals get along better in Cali where they are not trying to hang homosexulas from the trees or ship all the Mexicans back to Mexico. Cali is a large state with many beautiful areas (beaches, big sur, Yosemite, redwood forests, san fran, and on and on) but it definitely has major problems in the urban areas (crime, traffic, pollution, etc). It’s funny because after a few years of living in a small anglo town, my sister transformed from this open-minded Democrat to this right wing Republican mentality since everyone she came n contact with was like that.
I lived in North Dallas and then Arlington during a 4-year stint in Texas in my 20s. I am a feminist, non-religious person of Jewish heritage. Let me just tell you how badly I did NOT fit in! If you aren’t a bible-thumper you are going to feel like an outcast.
I lived in TX for close to 25 years and there are certainly conservative people there, just as there are conservative people in the central valley of CA and Orange county.
There are also areas where people are openly liberal and even gay as hard as that might be to believe.
Not every single person in TX ‘HATES’ people from CA just like every single person in CA doesn’t hate everyone from TX.
we don’t?
Exactly. It’s the 2nd most populous state and it’s about 40% Democrat, meaning there are more liberals in Texas than in all but a couple states. And Austin is more liberal than any city in California outside the SF metro area.
Sure we have more than our share of a-holes and bible-thumpers, but to listen to most people (like txchick57), you really short a large % of the population here.
P.S. - I’ve lived in several cities in Texas, but would never live in or around Dallas. It is actually what you think the rest of the state is.
I’ve said repeatedly that Dallas is the worst part of Texas. I went to high school in Houston and we went to school in Austin. I like it just fine there. However, it’s also in a nasty RE bubble at this time.
Although the governor elected by TX on Tues. is republican (and pretty stupid in his own regard from what I hear), local results indicated that the republicans have lost their strongold on some urban areas.
There are still plenty of bible thumpin’ fools in Plano I am sure
but there;’s more to Dallas than Plano.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/110906dnmetdemocrats.194930bb.html
Didya know that the gubbenor decreed yesterday that anyone who isn’t Christian is going to hell?
Where do they find these people.
that guy is such an empty suit it makes me laugh. I had hoped Freidman would make a stronger showing, what a colorful character.
Guys, thanks a lot. Good to get this type of feedback from the local’s perspective. I’ve done lots of research about Plano before and been visiting there a few times but I guess no one knows more about the area than the local people there. Again, appreciate your inside tips.
Wow. Some of the comments aabout Plano are completely ridiculous. People in Plano poor? Median income there is over 100K. The people are far from poor. I grew up in Plano. I also have lived in L.A. Plano is a better place to raise a family, hands down. I have good childhood memories. I made great friends. All of my friends were open minded and fun, no gay-bashers. My best friends in Plano now are a Jewish girl and a gay black man. Both liberals. It’s not a monolithic place. Oh, and the police are friendly, not corrupt like in LA. I was never harrassed for sex openly when I lived in Plano like I was daily in LA. The convenience store clerks are friendly and don’t pull guns on customers because they are of a “suspicious” ethnicity like I saw happen on a regular basis in LA. The women look normal, not siliconed to death and people at parties talk about things other than celebrities and “the biz”.
TXchick, do you ever get out from behind your keyboard and visit different places? You were scared at a Plano Costco, but you think LA is a better place? Your hatred of all things Dallas is just comical at this point. By the way, the sheriff in Dallas is a lesbian, and Dallas just voted blue in the last election. And I just got back from visiting in laws in California who did little but complain about gays joining their church and blacks taking over the town council.
Your statements are as ridiculous as the ones you complain about.
There’s a reason Plano has one of the highest bankruptcy rates anywhere and a huge drug problem in their “good” schools.
It’s soulless, greedy, grasping, materialistic place with nothing whatsoever to recommend it.
And yes, I go all over the place, probably more than you do.
i just ordered an appraisal for Winter Haven, FL(near orlando). Paid 191000 1 year ago. Will follow up in a couple days when value comes back should be interesting.
Your insider info is great, and certainly appreciated! Please keep posting here! If I can recall, you have been in the biz for some time. How bad do you think lending has gotten, and how do you see things playing out? Are alot of ARMs coming in for re-fi? I just can’t see how this game can continue for much longer, since so many recent buyers can’t actually afford a fixed rate payment.
We call it a ‘pause’ in DFW, instead of a bubble,’ she said.
Actually this is sort of true. Except for a few exclusive areas, Texas doesn’t seem to have developed much of a bubble. At least in the traditional sense of what a bubble is where you pump in demand and the balloon expands until it pops.
A balloon or bubble isn’t quite the right metaphor for Texas. It seems more like trying to trying to create a water ballon out of an fishnet stocking. You keep pumping in all that water and nothing expands, it just spills all over and you end up underwater.
What happens in Texas is that supply just keeps outstripping every other factor. Demand fluctuates, but supply just keeps exploding so fast that prices never go anywhere.
I suppose you can call it a bubble if you want. But what it really is is just a damn mess.
Okay. What would you call a house that sold for $105K in 1996 now selling for 300K plus?
My old house in the M Streets of Dallas.
I agree- inside of the LBJ, everthing is pretty high. To get a good price on a new house, you need to look 30-45 minutes from Dallas or in a crime-ridden area. A nice older home in a decent part of Dallas is going to cost some cash as prices have run up quite a bit.
Did the trip convince you to stay in Idaho?
actually no- Idaho is still a dead end for my career. We may still go but we are going to rent.
You can lowball and dictate your terms renting. Landlords are in no position to make demands. And don’t give anyone a deposit that you’re not willing to lose.
Kent,
When prices are doubling and tripling over the course of 7-10 years, it is a bubble. I’m speaking of CA here. When that happens in TX it is more like the mother of all bubbles. I don’t think any honest/objective person could find fundamental support for these recent escalations, and certainly not long term support. Don’t worry, the damn mess you speak of is coming soon.
One more. This is a very nice street right next to White Rock Lake and on a creek. One of my best friends lives right behind that. This place is overpriced and needs updating but if you could get it in the 215-220 area and update it a bit (kitchen particularly), you’d have something that will be sellable once the market bottoms and starts back up.
http://www.davidgriffin.com/index.aspx?List=2980&Area=5&Agent=159&Link=25&id=ctrl/Detail.ascx
right, except for a few exclusive areas.
Take a look at the housing stats for the Waco area.
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/hs/hs540b.htm
All that ever grows is inventory. Sales and prices? They don’t even keep pace with inflation. But inventory keeps going up and up and up.
A few examples of “bubble-like” prices in a decent, established area of Dallas:
2b/1ba 299k http://www.ebby.com/details/-2232523.html
3b/3ba townhouse 895k http://www.ebby.com/details/284648.html
Deep Ellum lofts 300k-500k http://www.ebby.com/details/252456.html
Hey, Karl. Wanna weigh in? Is Deep Ellum “decent?” LOL
Just be sure you have a bulletproof vest handy.
No. 1 is my old hood. About 2 blocks away from my old house. You could have gotten that place for $150K max in the mid 1990s.
No. 2 is Turtle Creek on the border of Highland Park. Most expensive part of Dallas. Absolutely ludicrous price. Betcha within 3 years you can buy that for 50% or less.
Oh, I know. You can find bubbly examples in certain well-defined exclusive areas of Dallas and Austin and I’m sure a few other spots around the state. Maybe certain parts of Houston too.
But for the most part the rest of the state hasn’t seen these sorts of runups. Prices are stagnant and have been for a long time. What is going up is inventory and it seems to be going up everywhere. Here in Waco, for example, inventory has nearly doubled since 2003 but prices haven’t even budged. The median sale price was $113 grand in July 2003 and it was $115 grand last month.
I see this in contrast to the real bubble areas such as California where every damn place no matter how ridiculous seemed to have a giant simultaneous bubble. Cities like Fresno or Bakersfield, for example, got all bubbly for no apparent reason other than mania. Those would be the comparable California cities to places like Waco.
That’s what I think the difference is. I don’t see any real sign of a statewide price bubble here in Texas in terms of prices. What I do see is an inventory bubble that is outstretching demand. An inventory bubble can’t pop like a price bubble because the inventory isn’t going to vanish or drop like prices do. It’s just going to sit there and create the same wasteland as everyplace else.
Oh and hey, you folks want to get a real laugh.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1059410275
This house is 2 blocks away from me. The site is gorgeous, on a high bluff overlooking the Brazos river with views in every direction. Something that’s hard to find in Texas. But $1.29 million? No one is ever going to buy that place at half that price. The county tax appraisal office has it valued at $618 grand. The next nearest priced house in this entire zip code is a big estate with 20 acres for $499 grand. The next nearest priced home in this entire subdivision is listed for $385 and will probably go for more like $325.
They were building that place when we moved into the neighborhood in 2003 and I think they just went absolutely hog wild and threw way way too much money at what was to be their dream custom home. Yes, they have the infinity-edge pool and all the most expensive of everything. But wow. Even Ted Nugent’s 500 acre ranch near here isn’t valued at that much.
The house is kinda ugly but I’ll bet the location is cool. That’s typical Texas for you. Are there any lots left in that development?
Yeah, I really can’t stand the faux English Mansion look. Especially when the traditional Texas ranch look with white Austin stone looks soo much more appropriate in these settings. Or even a Spanish hacienda look for that matter.
Yes, there still lots. Only one really prime lot left that is actually two lots combined along the same bluff and block as the house I showed you. In the rest of the subdivision about 1/4 of the lots are still available for building. The non-view lots go for about $30 grand and are from 0.6 acres to about 2 acres. For the lot I’m thinking of, They are asking $50 grand for each lot or $95 for both together and you’d really want to buy both if you’re going to build there. That would give you about 2 acres on top of the bluff.
The folks who live along there are a couple hundred feet above the Brazos river and most of them have built private stairs down to the river where the subdivision owns all the shoreline and it is completely wild and undeveloped and inaccessable except by hiking down. From up top you can see for 50 miles around. I walk my dog down there via a different trail that runs down through a ravine that ends across the street from me. It’s really quite rugged and pretty. Lots of oaks and wild redbud trees.
Do you happen to have a link to the 2 acres?
I’m not sure but I think this is the MLS listing. No photo.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1066514606