“A Realistic View That The Market Is Going Down”
The Modesto Bee reports from California. “New home sales have declined dramatically throughout the Northern San Joaquin Valley this year. New home sales were down nearly 59 percent the third quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago in Stanislaus County, according to The Gregory Group.”
“Sales were off 32 percent in San Joaquin County and 39 percent in Merced County. ‘As a whole, we’re not seeing a turnaround for 12 to 18 months,’ predicted president Greg Paquin. ‘Most projects are having to offer some sort of incentive to sell homes.’”
“Some of those incentives can be worth more than $100,000.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Local housing market observers are disputing a new report warning that Bakersfield is a bad place to invest in real estate over the next year or so. Four other Central Valley cities also made the nationwide list; Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Sacramento.”
“Local house prices have definitely dipped and could drop further, real estate agent Robin Ablin said. ‘Are (prices) going to go down to $125,000 like they were five years ago? That’s never going to happen,’ Ablin said.”
Inside Bay Area. “Cash-out refinancings are at their highest rate in 16 years. Joyce Broder did a cash-out equity refinancing on her Daly City home in September to pay for improvements. ‘I basically put it back in the house — most of it — and paid some bills off. … I invested a portion of it also,’ Broder said.”
“A borrower who refinanced now wouldn’t have to worry about home prices falling in the next couple years, said Andrea Lanier, a mortgage broker (in) San Mateo. ‘Some people are refinancing now to take advantage of today’s values,’ Lanier said.”
“Last month, Jill Stephens and her husband refinanced their Burlingame home to lower monthly payments so she could take some time off from work and stay home with their children. The Stephenses now have a less expensive interest-only loan with a fixed rate that lasts five years.”
“‘That gives us more monthly income so that I can stay home,’ Jill Stephens said.”
The Voice of San Diego. “The county’s leading economic indicators sustained a sixth straight month of declines in September, attributed primarily to drops in residential building permits and consumer confidence.”
“Alan Gin, professor of economics at the University of San Diego, reported sharp drops in residential building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer confidence played large roles in the decline.”
“‘The thing’s been trending down for six months now,’ Gin said. ‘It’s more negative news for the county.’ Gin predicts…a further weakening housing market and tumbling retail sales. ‘Housing and real estate is one obvious place where you’ve got to look,’ he said.”
From KNVN 24. “If you own a home in the North State, you probably know that home prices are dropping. For nearly four months Claudia Sigona and her partner have tried to sell their home. They’ve gotten a lot of looks, but no offers. Sigona says ‘the market just seems to be a little slow right now. we’ve had to reduce the price a couple of times, but we’re hopeful.’”
“Around the couple’s corner is Jensen Park, brand new homes with all of the frills. Twelve houses in the development still sit — and on this day anyway, not one person came to this open house.”
“‘Greg Melton is another frustrated seller in Chico. ‘At this point concern has turned to panic.’”
“Melton expected a quick sale. that was five months ago. Melton says ‘I don’t understand. it’s a nice neighborhood, great location, cul de sac, park on both sides. I thought it would sell a lot faster.’”
“Melton and his real estate agent had the house sold, but the deal fell through when the buyer was unable to sell his house. In the interim, Melton bought a new house… so now he has two mortgages and the selling price of this one has gone down.”
“Many home sellers we spoke to say they are panicking that they’ll never sell their house for what they paid for it. Sherry Payne is a Chico Real Estate Agent. ‘I think the last I heard we had about 800 houses on the market.’”
“Payne has sold real estate in Chico for 28 years. She estimates prices have dropped 20 percent from last year’s peak. further declines could be coming. Payne says ‘what has happened also is the fact that because they’ve come down they’re getting lower offers, even lower than the prices they’ve leveled off to. so they’ve reduced the prices quite a bit.’”
“Payne says ‘I think the buyers have a realistic view that in a sense that the market is going down. But I think they’re also very nervous about making any type of offer or going forward until they see what really is going to happen.’”
“In other words, buyers are being picky… and they may get pickier. Notices of foreclosure are up dramatically in Butte County, and many financially-strapped sellers are desperate for an offer.”
“Frank Hill is a flipper. But after he sells this Canyon Gates estate, his flipping days will take a recess. ‘I think that just everybody is in a holding pattern to see how far and how low the prices of these homes are going to go.’”
“Frank has priced his gorgeous house below others in the neighborhood. His $579,000 dollar asking price includes $25,000 worth of furniture. ‘We thought as an added incentive in this quote ‘hard market’ we would include the furniture too and maybe stimulate a buyer that way.’”
“Even so, veteran Chico realtor Sherry Payne says buyers are few and far between these days. Hundreds upon hundreds (of homes) are on the market and only wise sellers will succeed in unloading their piece of the american dream.”
“Payne says ‘for the seller I recommend keeping their house at a very, very marketable price, and even, yes, realistically, even a little bit low to catch the eye of that one potential buyer that’s out there.’”
“Potential buyers should know that they have more choices, and thus, more negotiating power, than anytime since the mid-90’s.”
The latest from Rich Toscano:
‘Median resale prices for both single family homes and condos fell in October from the prior month, by 2.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. That puts the year-over-year decline in median prices at 4.1 percent for detached homes and 6.5 percent for condos.’
The Orange County Register: ‘It’s all but official: October was another dog month for housing. The only question remaining, as DataQuick tabulates the month’s last week of actvity, is whether this will be the fourth straight month that the median price declines. That’s never happened in the previous 19 years that DataQuick has tracked the market.’
http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/rfs/232717303.html
That one has been removed. What was it?
Guy trying to sell a bunch of Orange County highrise condos supposedly 100k under market.
Wow! Must’ve been a real steal - they’re all gone 35 minutes after you posted the link.
Oops, 25.
must be somewhere along Jambore road or Michelson rd, maybe Marquee place towers in Irvine. Just guessing. A ton of proposed mid-rises and towers going up along Jamboree both north and south of the 405 fwy, though a lot of the proposed sites just barely past the graded dirt level.
The OC numbers are VERY distored by the new home “non-inclusion” of incentives!
Hey, the biggest “Clownifornians” are here in OC. The birthplace of Kool-aid, toxic loans, incentives and entitled gains.
Re: The birthplace of Kool-aid -
You may have invented it, but those in San Joaquin County must be hoarding the supply. Anyone who thinks a house in Modesto or Lathrop should be worth $500K is clearly not right in the head. At least Orange County has some culture and sights worth seeing/visiting, not to mention an actual job base. San Joaquin County has cows, and crops. Pretty much the only reason to visit that region would be to hunt ducks. In Stanislaus County, directly to the south, there are “cities” where one-third of the population doesn’t even have a HS diploma.
Please demonstrate culture in OC.
It is pretty devoid of culture, I am native to OC.
At least the OC has the beach.
How about the Inland Empire? Yesterday I saw 4,000 sq ft homes, asking price $1,000,000, across the street from a dairy farm. The smell was “ripe”
“Please demonstrate culture in OC.”
Laguna Beach
and ummm…..
The Mighty Ducks?
(kidding, folks, kidding)
Fake boobs is a nice culture.
Last time around in 1990 the crash moved from east to west. It took about 18 months for the west coast to start seeing the burst.
Looks like the PPT is back.
Phew, I was worried about them for a second… thought someone might have a really bad flu or something.
Yeah, I noticed their return as well.
The HB stocks are very strong today after declining for most of the last two weeks. Evidently, the stimulus for the bounce is a University of Michigan survey that finds more people thinking that it’s now a good time to buy a house. I suspect that this is a survey of the general public, not just people who need shelter and are doing research on whether they should buy a house that this time. One hopes that people would spend a few days (or at least hours) investigating price changes, financing options and affordability, before deciding to buy a house. Perhaps these “in the market’ people will be a little more cautious about whether circumstances for buying have improved.
Is that the same UofM survey from May of 05
http://www.umich.edu/news/?Releases/2005/May05/r052705
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2005/07/housing_bubble.html
Wonder who funded it. Noting the language, they don’t refer to single family houses or condominiums, they refer to homes, calling to mind realtorspeak.
One hopes that people would spend a few days (or at least hours) investigating price changes, financing options and affordability, before deciding to buy a house.
So, taking you up on your advice, I googled “Housing Prices.” The 1st link was to OFHEO Q2 report. The second paragraph reads:
‘“These data are a strong indication that the housing market is cooling in a very significant way,” said Lockhart. “Indeed, the deceleration appears in almost every region of the country.”’
The Googled “Housing Market.” Besides the grim news reports, the 1st link was Patrick.net. If that does not keep you out of the market, there’s no hope for you. 2nd hit was to a HUD report. It was not enlightening, but if you read it there was certainly info that would keep me running out and buying a house.
OK, so maybe you don’t use google. Yahoo says: “USATODAY.com - Bubble or not, high home prices can hurt”
Dogpile, Ask, HotBot, Web Crawler….It does not matter. If one spent 10 minutes reading on the web you’d run screaming from this market. Therefore, I think we have our answer as to why this thing ocurred and has not crashed. People who are buying are not doing their homework, and are buying wiht their hearts, not their heads. When you do that you are prey for the agents and brokers and sellers.
Now er also know how far down this thing can go….way far down. If people can’t figure it out when they buy, why would they try to figure it out when they sell.
The are not buying with their hearts. They are buying with teaser rates and funny money that gets repackaged and vanishes risk-free into the MBS black hole.
Sorry, Suzanne. I was carried away by my own prose. Should have said emotions.
If one used their heads, they would have either used fixed rate loans, or not bought at all…no teasers, no I/O, no neg-am. In either case, the housing prices would not have gone up like they did. The toxic mortgages started the boom, the boom caused the rush and the rush kept the boom going.
“Evidently, the stimulus for the bounce is a University of Michigan survey that finds more people thinking that it’s now a good time to buy a house.”
Nah — when they go up, it is because everyone knows the bottom is already in, and when they go down, it is because of profit-taking.
“Local house prices have definitely dipped and could drop further, real estate agent Robin Ablin said. ‘Are (prices) going to go down to $125,000 like they were five years ago? That’s never going to happen,’ Ablin said.”
____________________________________________________
That will never happen? Lets work our way down first:
(1) You clowns never admitted a bubble
(2) Now that prices are down YOY - So now you make outlandish claims that you know what happen next year. Give it time.
(3) So we go from $125k to $300k median in a few years and that is realistic - BUT going back down is UNREALISTIC?
(4) What about Crisp&Cole and John Busby going on local TV and claiming 15-25% for the foreseeable future in July 2005 was VERY REALISTIC??
‘You clowns never admitted a bubble. Now that prices are down YOY - So now you make outlandish claims that you know what happen next year.’
Good point.
(I need to review my spelling - ugh)
This sounds like a gauntlet has been thrown down.
Will Bakersfield revert to late 2001 prices?
Time will tell. (but it won’t be reflected in the CAR/NAT statistics)
‘Are (prices) going to go down to $125,000 like they were five years ago? That’s never going to happen,’ Ablin said.”
The mere fact that she’s airing such a statement, indicates the real possibility of it occurring.
Lady, you sound like an ill informed sales hack.
Compare it to what she was probably saying a year ago about what would be happening today. No doubt something like “15% up for 2006, It’s in the Bag!”
(3) So we go from $125k to $300k median in a few years and that is realistic - BUT going back down is UNREALISTIC?
It is a one way street. Prices only go up. So yes, UNREALISTIC. Glad you get it.
sarcasim off
“Local house prices have definitely dipped and could drop further, real estate agent Robin Ablin said. ‘Are (prices) going to go down to $125,000 like they were five years ago? That’s never going to happen,’ Ablin said.”
I wonder where Robin Ablin comes from… if he was a native he knows that prices going down by $125K makes sense. Just another Realtor wishing the bubble isnt going to pop!
You you havent seen anything yet baby! Where will Robin be when it does go down $125K. … Dead Silent! HUH!
“Where will Robin be when it does go down $125K”
Probably still trying to talk prices up. I hope for his sake he has a lot of braeth. Oh wait he is a realtor!
Looks like we can add Robin to our list of friends like Suzanne and Casey.
In real dollars it certainly could hit $125K. In nominal dollars Ms. Ablin’s statement is more than likely correct.
I agree.
People:
Nominally prices will never go down to $125K again.
However, in Real terms I think so.
She probably doesn’t understand the difference and most housing bulls don’t either.
Oh, they very well may go below that amount nominally, although yes, they certainly won’t stay there.
The psychological rush-to-the-exits from housing will strike deep before the Fed even gets the helicopters spun up.
“Nominally prices will never go down to $125K again.”
———————-
Honest question here, SSBG…why won’t nominal prices get back to $125K?
“Joyce Broder did a cash-out equity refinancing on her Daly City home in September to pay for improvements. ‘I basically put it back in the house — most of it — and paid some bills off. … I invested a portion of it also,’ Broder said.””
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! I can understand borrowing from the home for improvements. To pay bills, I can’t. For investing?? AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Sorry, I am laughing hysterically.
Bantering Bear,
I can’t understand ANY of it! Home improvements? Give me a break. Why? To go further into a hole on a home that can’t fetch it’s OCT 05 price now? Let me translate for those that may not be versed in FB lingo. Paying off bills means; getting caught up on past due bills before they show up on the credit report.
Home improvements means 2 trips to Lowe’s to pick up a vanity, mirror and sink (that will sit in the garage for 6 months) oh and 2 tubes of caulk.
Investments means that well earned vacation, golf clubs and a Gucci handbag!
These MB’s know full well where the money will or won’t wind up and they don’t care! They got their fees and have problems of their own!
I don’t understand - why don’t people buy a house with what they can afford on one income (maybe a second part time) - is it because they need to have a huge house to fill with more crap? When my wife and I bought our house 6 years ago, we made sure we could afford it on one salary. Sure we had to cut some expenses but that was sacrafice we made so she could stay home most of the time (and work a few hours per week).
Afford on one income? It depends where you live. There is no such thing in the Bay Area, and barely that here in Portland (a condo, perhaps). In the midwest… I absolutely agree. We bought acreage with a funky doublewide on it, which made sense to replace. We replaced it with a triple
Yes, that worked 6 years ago. Now that prices have doubled, most couples have to work. That is the other scary part. If one loses their job, there is no safety net now to fall back on, as the other spouse is already working. There is a great book called “The Two-Income Trap - Why Middle-Class Parents are Going Broke” by Elizabeth Warren that explains more about this.
If a majority of people refused to pay more than what one income would afford, it would drive prices down. Also the same would happen with not spending over 28% of your income on housing.
“If a majority of people refused to pay more than what one income would afford, it would drive prices down. ”
Bingo. This has me concerned that I will always struggle (in spite of good education) since my wife is staying home with the kids.
Two income families becoming the norm just increases the cost of life’s necessities.
“If a majority of people refused to pay more than what one income would afford, it would drive prices down. ”
————————-
Absolutely!!!! Problem is there are too few thinking people who actually get this. Unfortunately, with the EZ money of the past few years, they have controlled the market. Our turn, now.
And her sound financial decisions continue…
Yup. Probably used it to buy stucco in Phoenix or Vegas.
It’s only fair. Anyone remember the dot com era stories that you could get loans on your stocks and options as collateral for your mortgage? Now you can use your house as collateral for your stocks.
Investing your home equity loan. Brilliant. No wonder our country is so deep in debt. Okay, “liberate” your “equity” through a HELOC at X % rate, and then invest it what type of asset, and at what return? Am I missing something here, or is this lady a possible candidate for the Darwin Award???
Why, investing it in MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES, OF COURSE
That was a great idea, back when rates were very low and housing was in it’s upward climb. Liberate and invest in more real estate, rinse and repeat.
Now, maybe not so much.
Bantering bear,
They actually have seminars to teach these clowns to harvest their home equity for emergencies. But the fools always wind up blowing it on depreciating items.
Lets all hope they are not “harvesting” egg and sperm samples from these morons for infertile couples. They are interfering with humankind’s intellectual advancement.
It is too bad FB’s won’t be culled from the gene pool in large numbers.
They should be.
“‘That gives us more monthly income so that I can stay home,’ Jill Stephens said.”
More monthly income due to a rising principal debt load. This bit** is going to learn relatively soon that the hubby is going to need her income in order to ever pay off the ever-higher mortgage that was used to buy a bunch of trucks, SUVs, boats, etc. that have since depreciated in value.
I must say that I’m still amazed at how many people are STILL buying houses, despite the MSM accurately portraying the downfall. In Eureka, CA, houses on the MLS have fallen to 703…from about 792 last summer. Although much of this can be attributed to greedy sellers pulling their homes from the market, there still appears to be a lot of interest at open houses.
In fact, the Eureka Times Standard published an article a couple days ago about how home prices had gone UP in the past month; with Arcata’s median HOUSEHOLD income of about $39,000 cotrasted to a median home price of $375,000.
Why can’t this place be more like Sacramento, Fresno, Visalia, or San Diego and just fall!!! There are just too many retirees from LA and SF with plenty of money buoying this place up!
The aforementioned article from the Eureka Times-Standard:
http://times-standard.com/local/ci_4636431
They are just a bunch of cheer leaders. Wait until the new prime selling season hits next spring/summer. Many will have to come out of denial or file for BK sometime thereafter.
That one jumped out at me too. They didn’t get any more income from an interest only loan, just postponed the principle. And the mortgage broker has the nerve to say people are getting re-fi’s before prices fall.
Getting refis before the prices fall…and they no longer QUALIFY to refinance. Indeed!
“‘That gives us more monthly income so that I can stay home,’ Jill Stephens said.”
5 years later:
(That interest only loan) gave us high enough debt load so that now we all get to live in this car”
Jill Stephens
2008 Darwin Award Winner
5 years later when the bill comes due I can divorce my husband and find another guy who will treat me as I am accustomed to living. Then at the divorce proceedings I can get ex- hubby to assume the debt so I dont try to take his pension etc.
(sarcasm off)
OUCH! Ease up on the reality! LOL!
Yowzer! Ruthless! If she ever wants to go back to work, I am sure Al Queda will still be hiring.
Funny, I am supportive of someone (either spouse in my book) staying home at least part-time if the folks can work it out, but there does seem to be a certain class of modern wife who wants it ALL.
My wife is a mean, penny-pinching creature, and I love her for it!
“(That interest only loan) gave us high enough debt load so that now we all get to live in this car”
LOL. Man that’s a good one. Sad but funny!
I know that here San Diego, I hear plenty of drivetime radio commercials from local lenders advocating pulling out equity before prices fall or before the resets hit. Unbelieveable. Everytime I hear one I want to scream: IT”S NOT FREE MONEY!!!!
“…lenders advocating pulling out equity before prices fall or before the resets hit.”
Right up (down?) there with the lawyers trolling for someone who knows someone who might have an injury. The professionals have succumbed to vanity.
Don’t worry… the rainy season will flush a few out.
It rains a lot during rainy season here in southwest Florida.
Loans have to be repaid. I do not see how anyone can keep raising their debt and consider it income.
Yesterday I received in the mail from Countrywide their new Fasttrack refi program.
1. No appraisal
2. No income doc
3. Zero closing costs
Such a deal!
SAC county.
Meanwhile there are two homes within 1/4 mi of here that are in foreclosure, one bank owned the other trustee sale soon.
The bank owned has been for sale for months with a repo sign in front, but no takers, loans probably 100% at the time of purchase so the lenders trying to sell at loan value.
I think it makes sense for Countrywide….the longer they can postpone people being totally out of cash the better.
Of course, if the economy and market don’t play out this just makes the situation worse but if your choice is the certainty of going under soon as opposed to the probability of going under later, the choice IS clear.
I just received a Washington Mutual VISA Platinum Card offer with 0% interest for 12-months on all transferred balances from other credit cards. Looks like the drowning middleclass has an inflatable life jacket albeit with a slow leak.
I can’t see this mindless credit creation going on for much longer - it just doesn’t make sense anymore (as if it ever really did).
rms - I get this crap all the time as well. I used to work with a guy who was explaining one day that he used this 0% transfer deal all the time. By the way he was talking he must have at least 10 different credit cards by now, just rolling that balance from one company to the next, paying the minimum requirement. He thought he was a real financial wizard, pulling a fast one on the CC companies. We are talking a $10K plus revolving balance here.
rms - actually, to elaborate on my above comment, I guess my coworker was getting a free loan from the CC companies, so to speak, but the thing was that I doubt he has any intention of ever paying this thing off. Kind of makes me want to say the hell with it and just party on my CC for the next decade.
The 0% thing is useful IF you’re paying off debt. I have been slowly (oh so slowly) paying off debt from various sources, including cards my husband had before we even started dating. It’s taken me over five years to get the total combined debt down and onto one card, and it would have gone much faster had not a couple of financial emergencies happened along the way. (Things like having the paid-off car taken out by a hit-and-run driver— the ONE car we had, so we had to start that over.) But every month I pay what I can over the minimum (which is nothing on the current 0% interest deal, so I throw a couple hundred at it) and watch it sink.
I don’t think we even had unreasonable expectations, but we were in a market where even minimum-wage retail was hard to come by when we were married, and it took far too long to get employed. At part-time minium wage. Part of the debt we’re paying off is the money we borrowed to move out of that state, which in retrospect was the smartest decision we ever made…
“just received a Washington Mutual VISA Platinum Card offer with 0% interest for 12-months on all transferred balances from other credit cards”
I have the same deal with WM. Also get deals for 0 interest pmts for 12-16 months on trans balances for small business owners(Atvanta,am express,Capital 1). The game of transferring balances fron one CC to the next to get lower rates does not get you nowhere unless you are actually paying down your balances. If you miss or are late on even one pmt the CC’s will slap a penalty fee, and they can also arbitrarily raise rates for other reasons.
I have systematically eliminated all the ‘bad’ cc’s and only stayed with the select ones who do not screw you over for frivolous penalties/fees. B oA, Chase, WM, and HBSC give me few problems. I like to keep about 5-6 CC’s active and play them off against each other. If one CC raises rates suddenly i just shift a sizable chunk of it over to another CC wth a lower rate. What the CC’s want is for you to maintain sizable balances with them, and they will actually outbid each other to offer lower %rates. Of course this works only if you have a decent credit history.
Looking at Realtor.com for Eureka… the prices are way out from the homes.. Anyone buying at those prices just dont make sense. You have better deals in other parts of the nation if you want to retire and they are better looking homes and areas.
A few years ago, you could not even give some of that Eureka garbage away. Prices around there are hysterical. Not much selling though. Just a lot of dreamers.
I agree. I moved here a year ago, from the central valley. Prices in Eureka are much higher, but the quality of homes (typically 1920s-1960s never-updated garbage) is horrible.
I work with a guy that has 5 “investment” properties here…of course still sticking by his guns that RE is a great investment. So far, this market hasn’t proven him wrong, as plenty of FBs keep showing up. Amazes me to no end.
Like Ashland, OR, Eureka/Arcata it is a place that boomer investors think is a good place for SF liberals to go and die. And it is a small market and well known by the Bay Area crowd, hence the insane run up. I think our general pattern of delayed declines (I include Ashland, Bend, Portland, Missoula,etc.) is because the Bay Area folks that cashed in, moved north, and bid up prices have more resources than flippers elsewhere, so it will take a bit more time to shake them out. But I predict the six month lag behind CA that folks are talking about in Seattle will play our where we live too. I suspect the decline in Inventory is desperate flippers renting to students for the winter. Just prolonging the blood loss, I suspect. Things should get interesting next year. Until then, hope for a cold, wet, dreary North Coast winter and a cold, wet, dreary North Coast summer to thin the ranks.
Mr. Fester,
Plus the Shakespeare Festival just ended for the year, so the tourist stream slows down. And the drive through the mountains gets dicey Nov-Feb. Can’t wait to see what Spring brings….a tsunami of inventory is my guess.
I did not read this article mentioned here, but is this Jill Stephens lady actually saying that their neg-am/toxic loan equates to more income? If so, this may qualify as one of the most moronic statements of this bubble.
That is another really sad side to this bubble. Alot of mothers have a strong desire to stay home with their kids. But now in a lot of cases, that is just not a choice, it is suicide. I like to think she actually has the foresight to know what she is doing here. It is actually a huge sacrifice. That is the tragedy.
I have a desire to stay home with my pets and books, but I’m not willing to go into hock to do it!
The wild card in Eureka and Humboldt county is marijuana cultivation. The market is being held up by liberal medical marijuana guidelines (3 pound harvest amounts) in Humboldt county. Humboldt county allows greater amounts than most of the state for Prop 215 grows. The income and jobs sure aren’t there to support the housing market. The legal and proliferating medical marijuana industry is the culprit. Expect Eureka, Arcata and Humboldt county to do better than the rest of the state because of MARIJUANA.
Why can’t this place be more like Sacramento, Fresno, Visalia, or San Diego and just fall!!!
Prices are falling. They’ve been down year on year for the last four months.
http://www.humboldt.edu/%7Eindexhum/realestate/median.GIF
Hey Anthony, can you share your MLS listings from past years for the county?
The fact that cash-out refis are INCREASING astounds me. Maybe I’m retarded, somebody please help me here:
“A borrower who refinanced now wouldn’t have to worry about home prices falling in the next couple years, said Andrea Lanier, a mortgage broker (in) San Mateo. ‘Some people are refinancing now to take advantage of today’s values,’ Lanier said.”
OK. So I’m a lender, making a loan secured by real estate collateral. I’m keenly aware, like Andrea above, that the value of the collateral will likely fall in the next few years. So I lend as much as possible against it today?
Yep, that’s exactly what they’ve been advertising on the radio as a strategy to deal with dropping values or pending resets. It’s absolute lunacy.
Basically they are saying to “liberate your equity” before you loose it to declining home prices. Crazy advice!
I heard an add today encouraging people to pay for christmas gifts by borrowing against their homes. The ad said something like, “If you do this, you won’t be taking on debt because your home equity is already YOURS”. I wanted to reach through my car radio and slap the guy.
mr. b
oops, “lose”, not “loose”. “loose” would be if I were talking about today’s lending standards.
LOL that is funny.
Casey, Casey, is that you?
If it isnt it might be Robin, our new friend we made today.
Basically they are saying to “liberate your equity” before you loose it to declining home prices. Crazy advice!
Actually it’s excellent advice, as followed by Warren Buffett among others. But you have to get it right - you liberate equity by selling your house, not getting deeper into debt by using the house as collateral.
The real question is, who the heck is buying these mortgages on the MBS market? Or, better yet, who the heck is insuring those MBS through the CDS mechanism?
“who the heck is insuring those MBS through the CDS mechanism?”
See for yourself (warning: if you will be freaked out to learn that the grownups are NOT in charge up there, read no further):
Hot CDO market, untested investors a worry-PIMCO
…
“The risk is being transferred to people who don’t have a lot of bottom-up credit experience,” says Kiesel, who oversees $50 billion in corporate bonds at Newport Beach, California-based PIMCO. “There’s tremendous innovation going on and it spans a breadth and depth never before experienced.”
A growing concern are credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations, one of the hottest hedge instruments in the past decade, Kiesel said.
“There’s a large group of investors who are buying CDOs and tranches of CDOs and they’re betting on defaults staying low” — not a particularly wise policy, he said.
“A lot of this growth is being fueled by young people, who are obviously smart,” Kiesel said. “But the reality is there are a lot of new players participating in new products without bottom-up research skills, the maturity or the experience to know what it’s like to go through a credit cycle.”
“CDOs are sexy because they’re on everyone’s lips and people are chasing yield but very few people know what goes into them or how they work,” said Rutledge, a former senior analyst in structured finance at Moody’s Investors Service.
There are so many juicy quotes in this article you really shouldn’t miss it.
Yes, I lend as much as possible, collect my fees and commissions, and sell the loan. Remember: as long as you are selling the loans (and someone is buying them) there is NEVER A BAD TIME TO MAKE A LOAN.
I just wonder when MBS buyers are going to wake up and smell the coffee (or in this case the foreclosures). This entire problem would be fixed if an actual risk premium were built into the loans. Meaning that bad loans were sold like junk bonds, with a much higher rate. If banks had to risk a lot more to get these turds off their books maybe they’d be a little bit careful about the loans they make.
Maybe today. Someone posted article about Freddie Mac buying back $ 26 billion in loans. I think if you follow the two GSEs you will have a good idea what Fed policy will be going forward.
“I just wonder when MBS buyers are going to wake up and smell the coffee…”
I have often wondered if these pension fund managers are getting something in return for buying into this risk; you’d think that they’d know better.
It all comes down to one thing: “Lliquidity/Chasing yield.” I have a few posts up on my blog about the explosion in global liquidity and the impact it’s having on ALL asset markets (and “spread” product, or any bond that yields more than Treasuries). There’s so much money looking for a home and chasing yield with little regard to risk that it’s driving UP the price of all kinds of bonds, commercial properties, dividend-paying stocks, you name it. Something’s gotta give — it’s just the timing that’s in question. If indeed mortgage defaults continue to surge, and MBS buyers start realizing how much crap is in their portfolios, that should have an impact. But when will the pain become acute enough to change buyer behavior? That’s unclear
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/
Mike,
Looks like you have some interesting thoughts posted on your blog, but it appears that readers cannot comment. Too bad, but I will bookmark it, as I too am fascinated as to where interest rates and the housing market go from here. I agree with you 100%. Something has to give here eventually. The lack of risk premiums and the number of bubblicious asset classes is really something to behold. The commercial properties sector is one that I frequently observe and shake my head in confusion. I’m in the bay area, and people have been getting insane prices here as well.
89% of fre in 06
WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW from a previous article
these people know its not going to appreciate
preparing to walk ?
Yep, Andrea…
It so nice having a fox like you guarding all the chickens out there.
SFer “The fact that cash-out refis are INCREASING astounds me. Maybe I’m retarded, somebody please help me here”
Don’t worry. The Fed sent new guidelines out to all lenders. This was well posted on this Board about 2-3 week’s ago. From now on a borrower must be able to repay the loan under the worst terms of the loan should they be set in motion by contract or events.
I read the first piece about Modesto and looked at the map showing new home prices.
I’m sorry, but the Central Valley is a God-awful place to live. I cannot understand why or how ANY tract home can cost more than $250K TOPS. If I were transferred to the Central Valley, I’d likely rent the whole time I was there. Un-freaking-believable!!!
Throw a rock, folks, but it’s true. Summer heat of 100 degrees-plus for weeks on end, a nice fall, then dense fog and 36 degrees for months. The only saving grace is the Sierra Nevada mountains (two hours away) or the beach (2-3 hours away).
A lot of the central valley is truly awful, (California’s bible belt, Arkies & Okies brought it with them in the 1930’s) flat, hot, etc. but you cast a broad brush on the whole central valley…
Come up to where we live, in 3 Rivers, Ca., the last town before Sequoia National Park and see one of the exceptions (there are many others) to your bias. We are above the Tule Fog, have wraparound views of the mountains, have water all around us, including Lake Kaweah, for 4 months of the year, a substantial lake, full of snow meltoff, from May to August, and many people living here now are “equity refugees”, that have escaped from SF, LA, Santa Barbara and other bubbly locales, to a bit of paradise here and we all have one thing in common, we are so glad to be here and so glad to have left the bigger cities behind. (with our bubblicious profits locked in… ha)
I urge a visit to my town and see for yourself~
Sounds beautiful, but are your bubblicious profits really locked in if the value of your mountain house plummets as well?
Doesn’t matter…
Bought 10 acres, including 700 feet of the Kaweah River & 2500 sq foot house for cash, from the profits~
We aren’t ever leaving here, so the house values mean nothing.
To put it in perspective: we owed $3584.17 a month for another 25 years on our house in el lay, sold it in Aug 05 and owe not a penny on our house here, free & clear.
There are many like us, rode the bubble, saw the writing on the wall, got out in time and are now watching from a distance, as it all unfolds~
I must say, that does sound like a nice setup. My family used to stop at the Best Western in Three Rivers for the night on the way from OC to Sequoia (instead of driving up the windy road at night). My brother and I probably permanently altered the flow of the Kaweah with all the rocks we skipped into it. I could definitely deal with 700 feet of Sierra river footage.
What’s the range on prices there? Affordable, or now out of reach?
“To put it in perspective: we owed $3584.17 a month for another 25 years on our house in el lay, sold it in Aug 05 and owe not a penny on our house here, free & clear.”
Great timing! BTW, I’m available for adoption.
We are on the South Fork of the Kaweah and it gets a bit hot here in the summer (we like to backpack, so about 1/3rd of the summer, we are up in the High Sierra) and we have an el primo swimming hole on our section of the river, that saved us, this year. Some days we spent 7 or 8 hours @ the river, going in every 20 minutes for a few minutes, getting out, to hang in the 95 degree shade and do it again.
Not a bad way to deal with the heat~
Prices here range from 250k to around 800k and like most markets, things here are slow, so houses will come down a bit. @ any time, there’s only a few dozen houses for sale, in a town of 3,000 or so people.
sounds awesome…i only hope you are right about never leaving because (please dont flame me im talking long term here) it may be impossible to ever return to LA housing from their. This is why I still live in LA (Redondo Beach actually) rather than inland or north for free. Also the schools would have to be a consideration in my situation.
Injoy the river and the hiking! And the piece and quiet.
BTW… want to share what the place cost you?
Enjoy…gosh i cant spell today
Honestly,
Every time we go back to el lay, both my wife and I are so glad we were able to exit, stage north, and got the heck outta there. We went from a megalopolis of around 15 million people (la/oc) where nobody talks to one another, doesn’t know their neighbors, is continually stuck in gridlock, to just 3,000 people, and conversations flow easily, everybody knows their neighbors and the nearest stop light is 22 miles away.
Our situation was perfect, we are dinks, so schools didn’t mean anything, the hardest thing was saying goodbye to friends and family.
We paid 640k for our 10 acre parcel & house.
man that does sound great… a perfect fit for you. when i am in that neck of the woods there is a definite pulling effect.
i can say that in my ‘neck of la’ people do talk to eachother (because we live almost on top of one another), we are not in grid lock (because we work from home 4 days a week) and we live a block from the beach so no heat problems. but we give up the ability to have a yard, large house (i have a townhouse) and then there is the mortgage. We are sitting on about 800 plus in equity at today’s prices and for us its better to sit, but if i did not have kids and was in almost any other part of LA I just might join you!
Thanks for sharing (great handle by the way)
We lived in Rancho Palos Verdes and gave up what is considered perhaps the world’s best climate (it was 72, all the time) for the 4 seasons, no snow here, but all we have to do is look up in the mountains and there’s tons of it, in the wintertime. Things are at their most remarkable here, in May and June, when everything is green as Ireland and wildflowers abound.
We are also equidistant to SF & LA, which makes going to the bay area, not the chore it once was~
dude we were neighbors, im on catalina ave.. just down pv blvd from your old place. yes weather here is near perfect. i lived on a 1100 acre farm 45 min outside of boston during high school years. i literally almost stepped on a doe once, caught trout 6 months out of the year in my back yard, rode a horse to work etc. but i rarely went into boston (45 min drive)…your view is awesome and i totally hear you on no debt. it just depends on what you want out of life… sounds like the perfect fit for you.
Owning a house free and clear is a great feeling…
We get soaked for around $7k a year in taxes and there’s another $3k worth of insurance & upkeep and that’s it.
“We are on the South Fork of the Kaweah and it gets a bit hot here in the summer (we like to backpack”
Can you briefly describe some of your Backpack trips into the Sierra High country? For my own part, I did an 8-day trip in the Mineral King area, across the great western divide, and back in 1991. Also did a 10-day trip in the Kings Canyon Monarch divide region in 1993. Hamiliton lakes/Angels wings on the hi Sierra Trail is spectacular! Also did a 9-day trip along the JMT from Kesarge pass to Mt whitney in 1992. Bleak, desolate Rock-strewn bighorn plateau, jagged peaks with 10,000 ft glacier-fed lakes, and the headwaters of the kern: Nothing like the hi-Sierra to put things in perspective.
I would love for you to describe to me some of your favorite Backpack excursions, favorite backcountry sites, lakes, Peaks bagged, ect.
We backpack all over, to the locations you’ve described and more…
Typically no more than 10 days in length, some as short as a few nights, if just backpacking locally.
We really like Mineral King and getting there is 1/2 the fun. 598 “signifigant” curves on the road up, and once you get there, there’s possibilities up the ying yang, just depends on where you want to go. We like to leave the car @ Atwell Mill, backpack to Hockett Meadow, hang out there for a few days and then come down the Garfield Grove of Giant Sequoias (1500 amazing trees that you’ll have to yourself, check out the photo link below) and then walk home down the South Fork. Much of what we do is a combination of trail/off trail walking and there are many spots we like to go to that get just a few people a summer (Glacier Ridge, Eagle Scout Lake, etc) I’ve climbed many of the Kaweah Peaks, including Black Kaweah, Kaweah Queen, Red Kaweah, Mt Stewart, Mt Lippincott, Eagle Scout Peak and class 2-3 peaks are my speed, rather than technical climbs.
I just bought a Randonee ski setup last year and went out to the Pear Lake ski hut and then up to skiers Alta a day later, in April and I really liked it. Randonee skis are convertible from x-c to downhill, by just using your ski pole to switch settings.
Photo link:
http://people.tribe.net/tribe/servlet/a97e761b-eb82-4285-b28a-1d723690451a/photos?personid=a97e761b-eb82-4285-b28a-1d723690451a
“I’ve climbed many of the Kaweah Peaks, including Black Kaweah, Kaweah Queen, Red Kaweah, Mt Stewart, Mt Lippincott, Eagle Scout Peak and class 2-3 peaks are my speed, rather than technical”
That my speed also. Only bagged a few Sierra peaks(Mt Gayley, Mt whitney, Alta peak). Very impressive row of peaks you climbed along the great westwern divide. In ‘91′, I Came over Kaweah gap into the headwaters of Nine lakes basin/big arroyo cyn but could not muster the energy to do the nearby Kaweah Peaks.
Most of my Sierra backpacking has been plodding along trails/or cross country,and much of it in Seq/kings cyn. Never really made the leap into Peak bagging: usually i was so conked out from hauling a 50 ib sack 10-15 miles i had little left in the tank to make a go at some peaks. A really great class 2/3 peak would be Mt Sill, which i may undertake someday, someday. Another goal would be to do the entire JMT trail in one long jaunt (I’ve done maybe a third of it)
One could spend a lifetime and never explore all the peaks , trails, and niches in the fabulous Sierras. Best lakes i,ve visited:Hamilton lake,Kersarge, L.SouthAmerica, Marion,Palisades, 4th recess.
Yes… didn’t mean to paint with such a broad brush. At 750′ and above, there’s no fog. At one time, I almost moved to Pollock Pines (would have commuted to Auburn). I know where good trout fishing is all over the state (lived there 30+ years). But yes, you know what I mean about the Valley.
By the way, did you know that the San Joaquin River had a salmon run until the 1940s, when the water was stolen to grow cotton?
We have 11-13 inch trout in our section of the river, pretty regularly, deer, foxes, lot’s of birds and other wildlife…
Here’s a video sampler of where we live and some Burning Man footage, as well:
http://s92.photobucket.com/albums/l6/jsequoia/
Imploder don’t get it? Where is SuperWalmart? Where is Savon? What do you people do all day?
Everything consumption oriented your little heart could ever desire, is a 45 minute drive away, in Visalia, a nice town to shop, and unlike many other central valley cities, it has a vibrant old downtown section, as well.
We goof off on the internet, just like you, but our surroundings are a bit nicer.
“Imploder don’t get it? Where is SuperWalmart? Where is Savon? What do you people do all day?”
Imploder has to be one of the best posters to have recently begun posting here (sorry if it has been a while now, but the title is new to me). Great sarcastic commentary on today’s society at large.
Thanks CA Guy! I’m honored!
Don’t mention it imploder, your comments are excellent. It is this blog and people like you that help me keep my sanity. Have a great weekend!
Agreed. I love imploder’s comments. He is hysterical.
“We have 11-13 inch trout in our section of the river, pretty regularly, deer, foxes, lot’s of birds and other wildlife…”
Aladinsane, you have a good perch along that 700 ft bank of the Kaweah. I have spent 60 total days/nights backpacking the Sierra hi-country and only spotted a Coyote Once. Did see two bears sunnying themselves on a downed log at Crescent Meadow though!
I used to live in Visalia, so am very familiar with Three Rivers. It was a nice place to escape the fog in the winter. But, you still had to contend with all the pollution wafting up from the Valley, all the illegal aliens who would buzz by on 198 in their souped-up Hondas on their way to the Park to cultivate some marijuana, and very oppressive summer heat.
Three rivers is definitely in a RE bubble, just like its neighbors down the hill.
There are a few dozen houses for sale here in 3 Rivers, vs
around 2500 for sale in Visalia. Most of the houses sold in 3R the past few years have been to equity refugees that aren’t ever leaving this bit of paradise… (my neighbor Pete likes to call 3 Rivers: “Where every day is Saturday”)
I’ve never seen a drug cultivating illegal here, maybe I wasn’t looking hard enough?
great view by the way… too bad the rattlesnake one would not open … enjoy that piece of paradise my man.
I know the area very well. I have to agree with the air quality problem. The local joke is that if you didn’t have allergies before, you will soon. I would also add that the school districts are pretty bad and the nearest real hospital is just past Walmart in Visalia, 45+ minutes away. It’s pretty, but it comes at a price which has more than doubled in the past 5 years.
I can’t quite believe that Three Rivers hasn’t seen its share of speculation, considering that even the small towns nearby, let alone Visalia, have record inventory for sale.
My wife and I are dinks, so school districts mean bubkis to us and we don’t hang out much at the hospital, so that’s not a concern, either…
The air quality here is about 25% better than el lay, so it’s all relative~
aladinsane posts ” The air quality here is about 25% better than el lay, so it’s all relative~ ”
You done good! I agree about the air more like 90% better than the IE area…. not saying much.
I went up the 99 a million times when my son was in College. Watch out for the “burn days” when the growers can burn thier waste and sometime the growers get hot and heavy “spraying” the crops. But it is not a bad place nor a bad life…. enjoy!
” know the area very well. I have to agree with the air quality problem. The local joke is that if you didn’t have allergies before, you will soon.”
Just a note on the air quality of the SAn Juaquin Valley. I have read that the air quality is worse than LA. Have been up to SEqoia NP and have seen the dirty smog blanket hovering over the valley, and this stuff now crawls up into the Kaweah Canyon gorge, killing the Pine trees. With all the recent urban growth of the CValley is it not surprizing that Sequoia NP now has a serious smog problem akin to LA. I love SEquoia NP, have been going there almost annually for last 30 years, and it is tragic that the explosive growth of the Central valley is blowing noxious fumes into one of our truly great NP’s.
“The interest rate on Broder’s previous 30-year fixed-rate loan was lower than the rate on her new 10-year, interest-only loan. Still, Broder said refinancing was the right move. ”
Broder must be stupid.
“While current interest rates could indeed be higher for some new loans, a borrower who refinanced now wouldn’t have to worry about home prices falling in the next couple years, said Andrea Lanier, a mortgage broker with the San Mateo office of Bankers Preferred Real Estate Loans.”
In other words, liberate whatever equity one may have left now, before
home price go down further. If you wait, you may have negative equity,
thus can not liberate them.
The logic is so painfully idiotic it makes my head spin. Scary to think that you can multiply this by about 10 million in California. I guess people like that only learn when the SUV gets repo’d and the house foreclosed. Until then, keep the rose-colored glasses on tight and keep chuggin’.
The HB stocks are having a strong bounce today. Evidently, the trigger is a survey from the University of Michigan. A greater number of people in the survey are now saying that it’s a good time (or a better time) to buy a house. My guess is that this is a survey of the general public, not a survey of people who need shelter and are considering whether to buy. Hopefully, a good number of people who need a place to live would do some research on price trends, financing and affordability before deciding that now is a good time to buy.
Anything that comes down from above is propaganda.
Zadok posts ” Anything that comes down from above is propaganda.”
If you are luck. You do know they say poop rools down hill.
Just remember you can fool half the people half the time!
That is what NAR is trying to do.
They just want sales volume.
“I just don’t see anything available that gives any reasonable hope of delivering such a good year and I have no desire to grope around, hoping to ‘get lucky’ with other people’s money. I am not attuned to this market environment, and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand just so I can go out a hero.”
Warren Buffet
Hoz, when did Buffet make this statement? I like a lot of his thinking, and if this is a recent quote then it will help me to sleep more soundly at night; knowing that those of us flabbergasted by this market are not the insane ones.
The HB stocks nearly always have a predictably strong bounce after a bad news release. Of course, for that matter, there have been bad news releases about the builders’ outlook very often through the recent months, which makes the correlation rather hard to measure.
One thing I am puzzled about, though: Since Kara just went BK and left those who already paid earnest money in the lurch, wouldn’t buyers become far more reluctant to gamble on buying new homes, especially when we don’t really know how much debt may be hidden off the builders’ balance sheets? It seems like the Main Street reasons for builders stocks to go up just keep eroding; not sure what beauty the folks on Wall Street are seeing which makes them keep awarding Keynesian beauty contest prizes to these dogs.
“Last month, Jill Stephens and her husband refinanced their Burlingame home to lower monthly payments so she could take some time off from work and stay home with their children. The Stephenses now have a less expensive interest-only loan with a fixed rate that lasts five years.”
“‘That gives us more monthly income so that I can stay home,’ Jill Stephens said.”
I get it! Taking on more debt and not paying it down yields more income. This is like the car that, the more you drive it, the more gas you discover in the tank.
Where do investigative reporters find these gems?
LOL…yes, this woman inspired the saying “how can I be overdrawn when I have checks left?”. Driving yourself deeper in debt does not equal income, cupcake.
However, my favorite quote was…“Frank’s asking price includes $25,000 worth of furniture. ‘We thought as an added incentive in this ‘hard market’ we would include the furniture too and maybe stimulate a buyer that way.’”
Yeah right! If I want to sit on someone else’s nasty couch, I will buy one for $100 on Craigslist, NOT roll it into my tax bill.
Frank has the vibrating couch and vibrating bed. He is trying to
stimulate a buyer. Maybe a massage table too.
This is why so many middle class people could never be rich. As soon as they discover a little extra money somewhere, they find more and more junk to blow it on. Then they’re surprised when they’ve spent every last penny. Its the complete opposite of the “never touch the principal” saying that wealthy families have. I guess debt is the new wealth.
Exactly! And somehow we are supposed to feel sorry for them for never getting anywhere via tax cuts, subsidies, etc.
I pay more in taxes than many of these people make a year and somehow I still haven’t paid my fair share…
Like many amateur financiers, she has confused income with cash flow. Cash flow is important in that you generally want it to be positive to avoid a credit crunch. But in the long run, it’s no substitute for actual earnings.
One of the best things I ever did was to buy Quickbooks and learn a few things about accounting. It has prevented me from entering a lot of traps like this that are based on foolish claims about “income.”
Bbbut the mortgage broker told her the appreciation would take care of it all! And actually, I’d be surprised if their place took more than a 10% hit. But it might be flat for five years - which, given inflation, IS losing value.
If inflation takes a run - dollar sank today and Chinese announced their appetitie for USD dininshed - rates will run ahead of inflation. Try selling that $1.2M property on a fixed 9.5% loan, once $$$$ tightens, and it will.
These equity harvesters are dead meat.
“Frank Hill is a flipper. But after he sells this Canyon Gates estate, his flipping days will take a recess. ‘I think that just everybody is in a holding pattern to see how far and how low the prices of these homes are going to go.’”
“Frank has priced his gorgeous house below others in the neighborhood. His $579,000 dollar asking price includes $25,000 worth of furniture.”
We’re so proud to have a gated community, we changed the name! It’s actually Canyon Oaks Country Club. This is where we sold our home in 2005.
I wish Frank good luck on making this sale, because a comp is for sale right across the street for $525k, and it’s been dying on the market for almost a year. These homes are not gorgeous, they are detached hillside condos (about 45), crammed way at the end of the development on postage stamp lots. You can’t even see the golf course from there. No yards, just back decks on the downhill side of the street, and 10 feet to the embankment on the uphill side. Stand between the homes and you can nearly touch both walls. Frank’s house sold for about $417k in 2003-2004, so he has a lot of room to play. They never should have been built in this development (MLS 200604509 / 200607093).
Which properties in Chico have dropped 20%, Sherry Payne? I watch the market here every day, and the only price declines have been on properties where the builder/seller was still increasing the wishing price through 2006. Now they are coming down, but still above the peak and still nothing selling over 500k. Had a realtor use the “20% decline” line on us a couple of weeks ago, so it must be a local ‘feel good’ phrase …..
So what is the real estate market in Chico actually doing?
Can you believe this guy? He never stops. You’d think he would want to wipe the egg off his face before he smashes another two dozen on it.
Housing market appears near trough, with signs of recovery in data: NAR
ArticlesBy Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:20 PM ET Nov 10, 2006
Housing market appears near trough, with signs of recovery in data: NAR
ArticlesBy Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:20 PM ET Nov 10, 2006
NEW ORLEANS (MarketWatch) — The housing market is on a “road to recovery,” the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors said Friday, but just how long that road is and how difficult a trek it will be in some parts of the country is still anybody’s guess.
“There is still bad news [on home sales}, but the bad news is getting better,” said David Lereah, at the real estate trade group’s annual convention here. “And the bad news is just about behind us.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE5895704%2D90DC%2D4E5A%2DA39F%2D0DC7ED3553CE%7D&siteid=
I can believe him — he is just doing his job, and doing it pretty well under the circumstances, I might add…
“And the bad news is just about behind us.”
Reminds me of what was said on National Lampoon’s Vacation just before they lost their bags en route to the Grand Canyon.
“This is the worst that could have possibly happened to us, It can only get better now”
Beth to Catherine, when she gets stuck in a small tunnel at the beginning of The Descent…
“And the bad news is just about behind us.”
Sure Dave, but I don’t think I would bend over to pick up a bar of soap any time soon….
Like A.E Newman said: “Dave, it’s not a “correction” it’s an “erection” and it is behind you!” I laugh again!
The realtor community here in my neck of the woods has gotten more savy in controlling their propoganda. They’ve decided to no longer give any sales/pricing information to the local newspaper! I live in Santa Barbara country. I’m sure they are trying to make sure the home buyer has no bullets when they go looking for a home.
None of the ads have prices? So that’s supposed to attract buyers? Only in California.
No, the ads have prices, but they won’t give information on how many units are on the market or how long the average unit has been on the market. It is only recently that they have given median and average prices…. since it is all over the news that prices have fallen an average of 10% nationally.
I have heard that the realtors are like that in Santa Barbara County .You can go to Zillow.com to get some sales data but don’t count on Zillows estimate of current home values because it’s usually off .
Also sometimes Zillow hasn’t caught up with recent sales .Sales information is also in the county records .
A friend of mine bought in Santa Barbara about 3 years ago and their property went up 800k in one year ,(about a 35% increase in one year ).
Ben, I drove thru a new home neighborhood in Sacramento this morning called the Estates at Lincoln Crossing. You have a photo of it in your gallery….140 new homes, built for a year, yet no one is living in them! 75% owned by Flippers, 25% owned the the F’d Builder due to cancelled sales to Flippers. So picture this….
A HUGE construction water truck is driving down the middle of the street, spraying various houses and lawns on either side. It seems so many Flippers have stopped paying utilities, bonds and HOA fees, that the builder or the HOA has hired a water truck to keep the landscaping alive. Otherwise it would die….
Very surealistic….No one wants to pay the back charges for the water and electricity…..so they get a 5,000 gallon water truck to drive down the street once or twice a week. Talk about getting soaked…………
omg that is awesome
Now that’s what I call “getting hosed!”
JR: you just made my afternoon! What an image that must have been. Savor this moment my friend. I only want this madness to stop so that we can suffer through the necessary adjustments and then get back to some sound financial principles. I know of where you speak. Talk about an area that got a little ahead of themselves.
Hear! Hear! Post of the Day!!!! Way to go JR!!!
You HAVE to get a picture of that if you can!!!
The HB will wash the streets especially if there is still construction going on .
I’ve been working in the Roseville Westpark development on 2 schools and what a change from last year .
The models are up and a few homes are built but I just don’t see any sign of the building frenzy of the past 4-5 years .
Things are way slower now in the homebuilding arena .
This slowdown is for real but I don’t think it’s the end of the world …unless you bought in over your head .
I remember the slowdown in the early 80’s then in the 90’s .
Around 95 I was working in San Jose CA. reading stories about upside down homeowners and prices then were close to 250-300k .
I couldn’t figure out how folks could afford those prices and fast forward 10 years and the prices more than doubled .
In 85 I was a house framer in the SF bay area and the 1600 sf zero lot line houses in Ardenwood , Union City - Newark were selling for well under 200k .
Some people I knew moved to Sac because new houses were only 80k .
Cycles ..Boom and Bust ..nothing ever really changes EXCEPT in California home prices have always gone up higher after every bust cycle .
Might it be different this time ? History says no .
Especially since the Fed has the printing presses running full tilt .
Nothing would surprise me .
JAB,
Construction on this subdivision has been completed for a year. This guy was watering lawns, about every 5th house, from the seat in his water truck. These are homes that have been standing for a year and no one lives in them. Utility and water disconnect notices pasted on the doors during the last few months. There is a picture of the subdivision on the photo gallery (top of the screen, right side). You can go there, click on about 10 frames and you will see it, the Estates at Lincoln Crossing. Picture a big water truck splattering one of those homes. Very Gooofffy.
Political correctness in this country has led to the demise of the middle class. When the repo guy comes along you simply hand the keys over and apologize for having ruined his day, and you go live in a dump with -ve amortization debt to be paid off.
Same thing happened in SV during dot com bust, you simply handed your job over and moved on to a lower paying job.