November 10, 2006

“It’s Not Unusual To Have A Reckoning”

It’s Friday desk clearing time. Boston, “It was on the market for more than two years, but Brad Whitford’s 5,567-square-foot custom Federal-style Cape in Marshfield Hills was finally sold for $3 million. The original asking price was $4.9 million.”

From New York. “The local housing market continued its steady decline in October, with sales and median prices down in Orange and Ulster counties, according to county boards of Realtors. The Orange County Association of Realtors reported fewer homes under contract this October than it did a year ago, suggesting that the coming months will see a continuing drop in closings.”

In New Hampshire. “Two residences on Rose Petal Lane will be auctioned off on the premises on Saturday. The highest bidder wins no matter how low the bid. ‘This is a chance for the buyer to state their price,’ auctioneer Daniel Flynn said. ‘The buyer dictates the market.’”

“The greatest potential for problems is the North Texas foreclosure bubble. So far this year, more than 35,000 homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have been posted for foreclosure. More than 15,000 homes have been taken by lenders when the owners couldn’t keep up with the payments.”

“That means more than a quarter of the pre-owned houses up for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area are foreclosed properties.”

“A real estate downturn that has become rampant in some parts of the U.S. and Eastern Canada may be creeping into the Central Okanagan. ‘Prices have been going up year after year,’ said Brenda Moshansky, for the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board. ‘At times, they have been going crazy so fast, it’s not unusual to have a reckoning.’”

“Peter Gilgan has sold more than 30,000 homes as owner of Canada’s biggest builder. Now he’s struggling to sell his own, a nine-bedroom mansion listed at a record price of C$45 million ($40 million). ‘There’s no longer the demand,’ said Mike Donia, a Toronto- based specialist in luxury homes. ‘It just waned.’”

From Spain. “Property professor José Antonio Pérez tells us that prices of residential properties reach their ceiling at 300,000 euros, and from there on sales have more or less stopped. He talks of fear in the property investment market. ‘Many investors are beginning to get very nervous right now, afraid they will not be able to sell. So they end up selling at below market value,’ he says.”

From Idaho. “Wayne Forrey, for Kastera Homes in Eagle, (said) that falling home sales have forced area land owners to shave thousands off asking prices for their properties. ‘Realistic land prices are in the pipeline,’ Forrey said. (Builder) Don Hubble said land prices in the previously red-hot Meridian market have fallen dramatically, in some cases as much as $60,000 an acre for property that was selling for about $140,000 an acre earlier this year.”

“According to (consultant) Karim Rahemtulla, based in Baltimore, Md., the situation is about to get much worse. ‘Homeowners are in denial,’ Rahemtulla said. ‘Right now, sellers aren’t selling. They’re still waiting for Santa to deliver their asking price.’”

From Hawaii. “The median price of previously owned single-family homes on Maui fell in October to its lowest level in more than a year. For single-family homes, the median price fell 4 percent to $647,500 last month from $674,500 a year earlier. Maui’s median price high of $780,000 set in May 2005 was matched 14 months later in July. ”

“Calvin Mobbs, Realtors Association of Maui president, said a lot of buyers are waiting to see if market values decline significantly as sellers reconsider whether it’s a good time to sell. But his long-term view is that prices will drop just a little. ‘The sky’s not falling,’ he said. ‘It’s not.’”




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84 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-11-10 13:32:32

Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by nick the wizard
2006-11-10 14:30:10

yo, yo, yo.
i just had a direct experience with the RE bubble bursting. A former RE loan officer just emailed me the resume for a job. this is just the beginning of the lay offs. i think it’s better to leave the RE sector now unstead of waiting the big axe to come down.

Comment by crash1
2006-11-10 14:35:35

I picked up a sandwich at Arby’s today. The teenage girl at the drive-trough window whom I’ve never seen before asked me if I knew anyone that was hiring.

Comment by bubbleglum
2006-11-10 14:45:22

She’s already got a good job. She should be lucky she’s not a realtor.

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Comment by Chip
2006-11-10 18:25:11

Aha — so you’re female.

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Comment by Barelyescaped
2006-11-10 18:44:03

I had a strange call a few days ago. Apparently, the last person who had my current phone number didn’t give her new number out to ANYONE. Have had numerous calls from bill collectors, schools, friends,etc. A friend of hers left a message asking if she knew anyone who could help “get her out of her house or sell it” for her. I’m guessing she can no longer keep up with the payments. It really hits home when you hear it from a person who’s in trouble.

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Comment by John in GA (was John in VA)
2006-11-10 15:03:27

I just hired a guy who left the tech industry a year ago for RE and decided to bail.

Comment by waaahoo
2006-11-10 18:43:38

J in G,

Are you just a little worried that your industry is the next to tank?

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Comment by John in GA (was John in VA)
2006-11-11 06:49:23

Next to tank??? Hell, it’s still in the tank after the dot-com bust!

 
 
 
Comment by Gwynster
2006-11-10 16:04:51

Last week I received 19 applications for a mid-level Admin job at UCD (after HR weeded a bunch out). Here is the breakdown:
7 with less then 1 yrs work experience
3 relocating from the Bay area
1 relocating from New York City
1 relocating from Miami
1 former furniture salesman
1 former mortgage exec assistant

And you guessed it…..
3 former realtors

One fellow went straight from working on a farm (his first job) to realtor. One of the BA expats actually said on her cover letter that she sold her place in SF and bought in Sac and needs the additional income. This is what the labor force here looks like.

Top it all off - while home today I saw a commerical for “Design to Sell” on HGTV which said “help you sell during the housing slump”!!!! It’s now official - soccer mom all over the US just had their hopes dashed. >; )

 
Comment by fakewealthcreated
2006-11-10 19:53:58

A large part of real estate industry was driving the market up. If could fog a mirror in this industry for the last 5 years up to 2004 you were making 250K. And guess what they were all buying luxury homes as well as investment homes. Now, its dried up.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-11-10 14:52:16

The ad on the page with the bull is interesting. Looks like someone hasn’t got the message yet.

 
Comment by John in GA (was John in VA)
2006-11-10 15:10:44

That’s great! Rural Oklahoma’s housing market should continue to stay strong due to:
__ An abundance of high-paying technology and professional jobs
__ Outstanding climate
__ Rich culture
__ Access to beaches
__ Lack of rednecks
__ High elementary school test scores
__ Top-in-the-nation universities
__ Close proximity to a major financial center
__ Major tourism attractions

Comment by Backstage
2006-11-10 16:34:50

HMMM…

You just described LA or SF (except for the elementary schools).

So, LA and SF should stay strong, right?

Probably not. Even when the fundamentals are strong, this bubble cannot be supported.

Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2006-11-10 19:19:34

LA has a rich culture?

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2006-11-10 20:14:11

‘get rich’ culture, that is.

 
Comment by Backstage
2006-11-10 21:11:19

I was wondering if someone was going to catch that one. Richer than Oklahoma City.

 
 
 
 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-11-10 20:15:58

Looks like the locusts have found their way to Oklahoma !
They just don’t understand the strong demand.
I would guess everyone the reads and posts here understands the strong market in Oklahoma.

Comment by Backstage
2006-11-10 21:10:00

The fundamentals have nothing to do with this bubble. It’s loose money, tixic loans, and get rich quick mentality.

 
 
 
Comment by Ken Best
2006-11-10 14:45:20

“Calvin Mobbs, Realtors Association of Maui president, said a lot of buyers are waiting to see if market values decline significantly as sellers reconsider whether it’s a good time to sell. But his long-term view is that prices will drop just a little. ‘The sky’s not falling,’ he said. ‘It’s not.’”

The sky’s not falling, but the earth is shaking:
The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: A strong earthquake occurred about 10 miles (15 km) north-northwest of Kailua Kona or 65 miles (100 km) west of Hilo, Hawai`i at 11:07 AM MDT, Oct 15, 2006 (7:07 AM HST in Hawaii).

Numerous people suffered minor injuries, at least 1,173 buildings damaged, roads damaged and landslides blocked roads on Hawai`i. Power outages occurred throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Damage estimated at 73 million dollars.

Comment by Van Housing Blogger
2006-11-10 15:04:14

‘The sky’s not falling,’

To be Clintonian, it really depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.

If by ‘is’ he means right now today, well, no, the market crash will not be over by tomorrow. If by ‘is’ he means that the sky is not in the early stages of a fall, then he is wrong.

It *is* currently underway. It *is not* over yet; the worst has not been seen yet.

Comment by Neil
2006-11-10 17:31:59

Am I the only one who wants to see a little more brain power and numbers behind “the sky is not falling?” Otherwise, the downturn will last longer as people will get pessimistic and not be willing to hear any good news. Ok, that’s about two years off… Believe it or not, as much of a bear as I am, I’d rather not see it undershoot as much as I think it will…

I also understand people paying premium prices to retire in Maui. Much nicer water than the cold stuff here in LA. (Bitter cold, you don’t want to live here… move away…) ;) But resort markets see the highest highs and the lowest lows. Its just how it is.

Again, I’ll note the rumor that my company is probably going to start moving people to lower cost markets. (Only a rumor):
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2006/11/rumor-only-rumor.html#links

Neil

Comment by Lip
2006-11-10 19:46:17

Neil,

After living in the OC for a little over a year I can understand why Californians don’t like AZ much, but there
are a lot of good things about it. The price of housing in Phoenix is coming way down, probably going to around $100 per sq ft.

Does your equipment melt?

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Comment by Neil
2006-11-11 00:46:58

Lip,

Pheonix would work. Its considered likely. However, other locations will provide more location assistance. Note: I get everything 3rd hand, so there is a reason I label everything rumor.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Backstage
2006-11-10 16:38:03

It’s even easier, Van. The sky is not falling, but housing prices are.

 
Comment by skooch
2006-11-10 19:37:19

Damage estimated at 73 million dollars.
Bill: Well whaddaya think Jim? It looks pretty bad.
Jim:Yeah. I’m guessin’ it’s gonna coast about 73 million dollars to fix it all.

Comment by skooch
2006-11-10 20:08:43

… oops … “cost”

 
 
 
Comment by Rally
2006-11-10 14:55:29

Acres in Idaho: 52 million.

People in Idaho (as of 2003): 1.3 million

So an average of 40 acres per person. How on earth can any of it get near 140K? I can see that kind of price in my area, Maryalnd suburbs between DC and Baltimore. In this area, an acre might run you 200-225. And that is bubbleicious.

Some crazy people in Idaho.

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-10 14:58:12

“That means more than a quarter of the pre-owned houses up for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area are foreclosed properties.”

Why are they still building? And why is Texas being portrayed in the media as unaffected by the housing bubble?

Comment by mugsy
2006-11-10 15:04:29

Was up in San Antonio 3 hours ago and they are building like mad! The crash will be loud.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-11-10 15:06:15

yes, that makes zero sense - but when did ANY of this make good sense?

The plot thickens. There is nobody to buy these homes unless we let Mexican citizens (illegal immigrants) and MORE sub-subprime people to do so. Nobody wants a second home in east bumfvck somewhere…

Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-11-10 20:21:22

“There is nobody to buy these homes unless we let Mexican citizens (illegal immigrants)”
You are now truly enlightened.
This is the plan……….20 million + 40 million more after legalizing the illegals. We actually need many more houses to have enough housing available for the new arrivals.
Count on it.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2006-11-10 18:30:01

“Why are they still building?”

That might be the dirty little secret — because builders consistently can undersell the clueless used-home sellers. Even now. They have no ego in the game.

 
 
Comment by mugsy
2006-11-10 15:06:59

“It was on the market for more than two years, but Brad Whitford’s 5,567-square-foot custom Federal-style Cape in Marshfield Hills was finally sold for $3 million. The original asking price was $4.9 million.”

Brad Whitford of Aerosmith???? (rythym guitarist) Why should I give carp if he gets stiffed? Don’t Steve and Joe give him a decent share of the dough? Well, maybe he put it all up his nose again. Unless Sam Adam’s took him off the preferred customer list…..

Comment by mugsy
2006-11-10 15:08:56

CRAP not carp. Carp isn’t edible anyway…just swims around Koi ponds.

 
Comment by skooch
2006-11-10 19:41:01

LMAO. That’s the first thing I thought when I read that line too.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2006-11-11 08:00:10

Was it here or the Cape Cod Times where I heard another Aerosmith band member was taking a bath on his house in the town of Barnstable?

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-10 15:08:56

“‘There’s no longer the demand,’ said Mike Donia, a Toronto- based specialist in luxury homes. ‘It just waned.’”

Just like the hard-on many speculators and first time homebuyers had for the rest of the real estate market, demand went limp. As you know, it is extremely difficult to get it up after the money shot. Likewise, buyers are exhausted. Moreover, even if they could get it up, the pay off just would’nt be the same.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2006-11-10 18:59:52

Toronto is amazing. Of all the places I’ve been to or seen it is by far the worst example of the Housing Mania. I was there in 1995. I remember a couple of tall buildings near the waterfront. I was back there in 2006 and I couldn’t believe it. On the cab ride in, I turned to my wife and said, “they’ve lost their f#cking minds.” The number of condo towers was astonishing. Sleepy little Toronto wants to be New York. Well, Toronto isn’t New York. I live in New York and I know this for a fact.

I love Toronto but the destruction there will be awful. And we know about destruction here in New York. It’s just down the street from us. At least we didn’t choose ours knowingly. I hope it won’t be too ugly but I think hope is dead at this point. It was strangled by greed and stupidity.

Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-11-10 20:25:28

We get the Mexicans.
Toronto gets the Chinese and other Asians.
There are plenty of people to fill these units.
We just need an economic crises to get everyone on board to supporting mass immigration to North America, completely altering the current racial/social/economic make-up.

Comment by Darth Toll
2006-11-10 21:48:55

No, no, no you’ve got it all wrong. Once the economic crises hits, all of these newcomers will be rounded up and put in internment camps. Especially when the war with China starts. Economic crises won’t endear Americans to this sort of mass in-migration - it will be quite the reverse, imho.

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Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-11-11 06:57:13

Darth,

In the past, when America was growing from births of children to native born Americans, I would say you would be right.
But the world has vastly changed over the past 30years. Women went to work and stopped having enough children to support the retiring generation. All social programs are based on a GROWING POPULATION. Without newcomers, the system breaks down.
The Zero Population Growth and Planned Parenthood lefties, convinced all the white European- based countries to stop having children (until recently, America was largely an extension of Europe).
Now, the populations of the native-born are all in decline. There are not enough newcomers to fill the jobs and pay the taxes to support the overhead of the aging populations. The NEED for revenue to pay for Social Security, etc and to find renters and buyers for homes, etc, will drive the sales job for NEW IMMIGRANTS. It’s already been happening here and in Europe, and they are paying for it with Moslem Riots and Bombings, and we are paying for it with Latino Gangs. It will get worse.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by athena
2006-11-10 15:11:28

“Calvin Mobbs, Realtors Association of Maui president, said a lot of buyers are waiting to see if market values decline significantly as sellers reconsider whether it’s a good time to sell. But his long-term view is that prices will drop just a little. ‘The sky’s not falling,’ he said. ‘It’s not.’”

It’s not… It’s not…It’s not!!!! (he said while kicking his feet and banging his fists and writhing on the floor) ;-D

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-11-10 15:31:59

As his facial tic became even more pronounced….

 
 
Comment by North GA Dave
2006-11-10 15:29:06

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-1011retirement,0,3023110.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

Lereah says:

“There will be a whole new set of destinations because of the hurricanes and the rise in the cost of insurance,” David Lereah said Friday at the NAR’s convention. “People are going to think twice about wanting to live on the water.”

“..the problem that will remain is the availability and affordability of insurance,” he said. “Start in southern Florida and work your way up to Maine.”

Although home sales have fallen, Lereah said only about a fourth of the country will be severely hit by the drop. The drop is not tied to a poor economy, Lereah said. Instead it’s cooled because of speculators dropping out, a lack of confidence in the home sales market, and a cutback on some of the more exotic forms of financing.

“There is a contraction because we had a boom that got carried away,” he said.

Only markets that experienced unrealistic rises in values will be hit drastically now, however. “Seventy-four percent of the nation will be expanding still, in a sluggish way, but expanding nevertheless,” he said.

“Given the huge gains in home values during the housing boom, and this year’s rise in housing inventory, overall price gains this year and next will be modest,” Lereah said.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-11-10 15:35:17

Although home sales have fallen, Lereah said only about a fourth of the country will be severely hit by the drop.

Pray tell, Liar-eah, WHICH fourth will be “severely hit”, because the bursting bubble seems to be playing out in every zip code.

Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-11-10 16:20:18

The one fourth where 75% of the people live.DL is weavin and dancin and everyone of his predictions have been false so far.Expect more of his bs all the way down to the bottom,that is if he is still working.The NAR may need a good fall guy and DL would be a logical choice.Its time to shoot the messenger.

Comment by Jim A.
2006-11-11 04:58:26

Even if you’re talking about 25% of the population being affected, rather than 25% of the area, I’m betting that you’re talking about greater than 50% of the nominal value of property being affected by severe declines.

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Comment by Backstage
2006-11-10 16:45:07

I predict it will be the 25% that need to sell in the next 3 years.

You and your next door neighbors will be fine. The guy behind you is hosed. The guy next to your neighbors…hosed, too.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2006-11-10 18:34:12

Nobody ever mentions that if housing costs drop in half, as in “get back to normal,” so will the insurance premiums. Much of the run-up in premiums was based on the valuation of the properties and their supposed replacement cost, not just the windstorm risk.

Comment by yogurt
2006-11-11 00:58:23

It’s the building that has to be replaced, not the land. Although construction costs have increased, by far the largest part of the RE runup has been land costs. The value of your house may drop 50%, but the cost of replacing the building will probably not drop more than 20%, if that.

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2006-11-11 03:14:24

However; your taxes WILL be half if that happens, and at least where I live (Palm Beach) taxes are more of a burden then insurance for almost every location.

It would certainly help shut people up about insurance; that’s for sure. If you pay 2X as much for your house, have 2X the taxes you should (and morgage); you start to get very cranky when the 10K insurance bill comes in. Put all those numbers back to normal, and it will not be such an issue anymore.

 
 
 
Comment by Tango in Uniform
2006-11-10 15:30:42

Interesting. I just got an e-mail today from a Realtor (I’m signed up to receive new properties). He references the article “Babes in Bear Land” which talks about newer Realtors who have not seen a downturn. This Realtor says:

Found this [article] on cnn money web site. Thought the information could be of interest. While Billings is a long way from a “slump” the article has good thoughts to ponder. By the way I’ve been in the business since 1982.

Here’s the great thing. If you bought in Billings in 1986, it would have taken 10 years, inflation adjusted, just to break even on your house! And yet this same Realtor was recently quoted as saying, When you buy in Billings it is like getting a corporate bond. You will get a steady decent rate of return of six to ten percent. It’s real value and it will hold. Did he manage to forget the 80’s?!

Comment by Tango in Uniform
2006-11-10 16:10:56

Here’s the referenced article. I think someone may have posted it already today:

Babes in Bear Land (CNN.com)

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-10 15:34:09

“Hubble said land prices in the previously red-hot Meridian market have fallen dramatically, in some cases as much as $60,000 an acre for property that was selling for about $140,000 an acre earlier this year.”

Do you realize how eerily similar this sounds to Japan?

Imagine every land/property owner across America taking one big collective land write-down similar to what the builders are currently doing. If builders are writing down land, it certainly makes sense to me that their neighbor’s land value are also worth less. Is that not an example of deflation? It certainly smells like deflation, IMO.

Also, consider the collective collateralized impact on mortgagee balance sheets. Some of them may soon be upside down. Will they follow suit and take write-downs too? We lambasted the Japanese for not taking write-downs. How would write-downs impact future lending and solvency? Could fear of insolvecy affect future willingness to lend?

Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-11-10 16:14:11

You mean hide the bad loans/lands in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

At least in Japan, the private banks were doing the hiding rather than gov sanctioned entities….

 
Comment by WaitingInOC
2006-11-10 17:11:53

Sure, it’s an example of deflation, but I don’t think it will show up in the CPI since they seem to only include equivalent rent. Maybe the FED will decide now is a good time to start including these types of figures, as they will help to show lower inflation. They certainly don’t seem to be afraid of monkeying with the data inputs for CPI, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them do something along these lines.

 
Comment by lineup32
2006-11-10 19:34:04

mrktMaven FL: Geat post! Raw land pricing or former AG land now rezoned for the HB market suddenly is cow pasture again!. California home prices is way up based on all this rezoned cow pastures, will be interesting to see what the ride down looks like.

 
 
Comment by CA Guy
2006-11-10 16:12:38

For all the the Goldilocks that ever doubted her predictions, it looks like txchick was not pulling your legs on the DFW market. 25% of the resale properties are foreclosures? All I can say is: WOW, good call chick. Sounds like a train wreck, plane crash, and multi-car pile up all in one. Ben has been posting articles like mad here the past couple of months, and this thing seems to be snowballing much quicker than most thought it could, including me. The quotes from FBs are getting better every day.

Comment by Brandon
2006-11-10 20:09:57

I just went to Dallas for the first time in about 7 years and could not recognize the place due to the construction. In the suburbs, housing is sprouting up like weeds a 45 minute drive from Dallas. KB, Pulte, Centex, DR Horton, Lennar, etc. are building all over the metroplex. Some areas, prices are decent- 130k for a bare bones tract home 30 miles from Dallas, while we saw more desireable areas pricing 300-400k and up for McMansions.

Downtown and uptown Dallas have gone off the rails with condo construction. We saw a lot of towers going up (or still big holes in the ground) and the advertised prices where quite high. It’s nice they are upgrading the area, but I see a crash written all over the race to build Dallas luxury condos.

 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2006-11-10 16:16:44

“Peter Gilgan has sold more than 30,000 homes as owner of Canada’s biggest builder. Now he’s struggling to sell his own, a nine-bedroom mansion listed at a record price of C$45 million ($40 million).

What’s the usual DOM for a 40 million dollar house? Doesn’t it usually take several months to sell these off-the-chart houses (well, ‘house’ really isn’t the right word) even during the best of times? Would it even sell if he put a fire-sale price of $20M on it? How do you get comps on a property like this?

And why does somebody like this sell? In order to move into a $60M home???

Is it out in the sticks somewhere, surrounded by thousands of acres of wilderness? And I bet it’s really c-c-c-old there for 8 months of the year. Just the heating bill alone for this place would bankrupt most people . . . sheesh!

Maybe somebody could buy it and turn it into a resort hotel, but it probably wouldn’t cash flow for most of the year unless it was near a good ski area, and good fishing in the summer . . .

Are we supposed to feel the remotest bit sorry for this guy? And what does his inability to sell his mega-mansion in Ivory Tower Land have to do with the overall RE market down here in Smallville?

Comment by Recovering Homeowner
2006-11-10 17:00:05

When I read about multi- million dollar houses in Canada my mind immediately shifts to the creepy hotel in the movie, “The Shining.” Of course this guy only has nine bedrooms to race around in whilst getting cabin fever during the winter.

Hmmm….40 million…. that’s 4.4 million per bedroom. Wonder what the square footage is?

 
 
Comment by ronin
2006-11-10 16:25:18

First:

“The drop is not tied to a poor economy, Lereah said. ”

Then:

“Instead it’s cooled because of speculators dropping out, a lack of confidence in the home sales market, and a cutback on some of the more exotic forms of financing.”

ie, all precisely the sort of factors that together make up the economy.

The drop is not tied to a bad economy, instead its just cooled because the economy is bad.

Comment by Backstage
2006-11-10 16:54:44

“Tied to a poor economy” would make one think that RE is being pulled down by poor econimic performance. That’s simply wrong!

The economy is tied to the housing market. This time the economy gets slammed when RE is sucked into a sink hole, not the other way around.

Once again, you guys have simply misunderstood DL.

Comment by ronin
2006-11-11 02:54:02

There is not, on one hand, the economy, and on the other, the housing market. Rather, the housing market, like every other market, like consumer psychology, like consumer behavior, like expectations and liquidity and debt and a million other things, are all parts of the economy. To consider the housing market and the economy as two isolated phenomenon is a false dichotomy.

 
 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2006-11-10 17:37:47

You want price reduction. I’ll give you price reduction.

4037 Via Valmonte , Palos Verdes Estates, 90274-1408 $1,695,000*
Status: ACT Orig Price: $1,999,000
Between Hawthorne Blvd. & Palos Verdes Dr. N.
LP Exclds: Potted Plants.
Prop Desc: Excellent Schools & the Safest City in California According to Police Statistics. Stunning Total Remodel Just Completed with Practically Everything New from the Roof on Down. 4 Br. 3 1/2 Bath, 2813 sq. ft.. 2 Story with City Lights & Mountain Views in Valmonte Area. Granite Throughout with Huge Upper Deck & Lower Patio., Large Backyard with Fire Pit & Front Courtyard with Fountain. Master Bath with Jacuzzi Tub, Separate Marble Shower & Dual Sinks. Large Master Bedroom with a View, Walk-in Closet, Fireplace and Separate Lighted Vanity Area. Totally New Kitchen with Granite Counter Tops & Upscale Appliances. Must See to Appreciate the Quality! JUST REDUCED!!!

This being in Palos Verdes Peninsula.
Up there on that mountain or whatever you see Between LAX and long beach, in sunny California

Comment by bulwark
2006-11-10 19:26:44

It’s not worth half that. I used to live there.

Comment by skooch
2006-11-10 20:05:43

It’s not worth half that. I used to live there.

Wow! You lived at 4037 Via Valmonte , Palos Verdes Estates, 90274-1408. What are the odds?

 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2006-11-10 19:01:59

Dollar-wise that’s pretty hefty. But percent-wise (15%) it’s not much of a drop.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-10 20:23:04

“‘Many investors are beginning to get very nervous right now, afraid they will not be able to sell. So they end up selling at below market value,’ he says.”

So they end up selling lower than last year’s market value, and screw up the comps.

Comment by jag
2006-11-11 06:33:59

“they end up selling at below market value”

By definition, whatever a seller gets IS “market value”. Things may sell for below intrinsic value or relative value but they can never sell BELOW market value…..the transaction price is always (between willing buyer and seller) the market price (like it or not).

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-10 20:29:47

“The median price of previously owned single-family homes on Maui fell in October to its lowest level in more than a year. For single-family homes, the median price fell 4 percent to $647,500 last month from $674,500 a year earlier. Maui’s median price high of $780,000 set in May 2005 was matched 14 months later in July.”

These numbers are tossed around as though to create a jumble of confusion. But reading between the lines, I believe I see

14 months after May 2005 = July 2006

July 2006 median = $780,000

October 2006 median = $647,500

Three month absolute $ decline = $132,500

Three month percentage decline = 132,500/780,000 X 100% = 17%

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-10 20:35:15

But his long-term view is that prices will drop just a little. ‘The sky’s not falling,’ he said. ‘It’s not.’”

Is 17% in three months “just a little?” Especially when it caused a loss of median SFR market value which likely far exceeds the median income in Maui?

Comment by Chris in La Jolla
2006-11-11 05:55:56

Just to play along, That’s a 68% annualized depreciation rate.

Nope, no falling sky here. Move along folks.

 
 
 
Comment by Tom
2006-11-10 21:31:25

Why do more expensive homes keep on rising??

http://tinyurl.com/y3zfsf

Comment by Neil
2006-11-11 01:05:13

We’ve got some gutsy flippers! ;)

 
Comment by nhz
2006-11-11 04:22:53

“The rich get richer and the poor get poorer,” says Corcoran. “New money is easy to spend and to flaunt.”

I’m sure this is the explanation. The same is happening in Europe; the most wealthy 1% or so sees their paychecks or corporate income increase by 20,30 or even more % every year while most of the population cannot even keep up with the phony CPI. In my regional hometown in the Netherlands, far away from the big financial centres, the most expensive homes are still skyrocketing in price (some are now at 1500% of their 1990 price). ‘Average’ home prices have been rising at a healthy but much lower speed in the last five years.

Also, in Europe purchases of expensive RE seem to be mostly in sync with stock market performance and less with interest rates or average home prices because those don’t matter for multi-millionaires. When we get a stock market crash, most of the rich will refrain from buying for some time but most of them will not sell because they always have plenty of money left. I can imagine some financial sector billionaires quickly going bankrupt though, like many dot.com millionaires just after 2000.

 
Comment by Wickedheart
2006-11-11 19:29:01

Nowhere in that article does it say the sellers are actually getting their “wishing prices”.

 
 
Comment by hedgefundanalyst
2006-11-11 04:40:18

Trump Hawaii condos sell out for $700M

By BRIAN CHARLTON, Associated Press Writer Fri Nov 10, 9:36 PM ET

HONOLULU - Celebrities and investors forked over $700 million in just a few hours to buy up more than 460 suites in Donald Trump’s luxury hotel-condominium project in Waikiki.

Sales contracts were signed and deposits put down Thursday for 464 hotel suites at the Trump International Hotel and Tower Waikiki Beach Walk, developers said. The sellout forced the cancellation of a planned second day of sales.

Developers said the sales set a record for the amount of residential property, both in dollar value and unit volume, sold in one development on a single day. The previous record was set in December 2005 when Vancouver-based Intrawest Corp. sold 318 suites in the first phase of a Maui resort for $425 million, according to the Los Angeles-based developer Irongate.

Trump featured the development on his TV reality series, “The Apprentice.” The Trump sale attracted celebrities including entertainer Don Ho, NBA players, and pro golfers, along with a Japanese rap star and baseball player, said Jason Grosfeld, co-founder of Irongate.

He would not identify the other investors by name.

“I would have bought out the entire 23rd floor, but someone beat me to it,” Ho, who purchased two one-bedroom units, told the Honolulu Star Bulletin.

The average price for a suite was $1.5 million, a 500-square-foot studio for about $400,000, and a three-bedroom penthouse for more than $9 million, developers said.

The 38-story tower will include a library, wine cellar, lobby bar, cafe, fitness center, spa, among other amenities. Construction is scheduled to begin in December and to be completed in mid-2009.

 
Comment by Kent from Waco
2006-11-11 07:19:49

Acres in Idaho: 52 million. People in Idaho (as of 2003): 1.3 million. So an average of 40 acres per person. How on earth can any of it get near 140K? I can see that kind of price in my area, Maryalnd suburbs between DC and Baltimore. In this area, an acre might run you 200-225. And that is bubbleicious. Some crazy people in Idaho.

Don’t confuse the state’s acreage with real estate supply. There is no connection. In Idaho probably 90% of the land is Forest Service, BLM, or Parks Service Land. Most of the rest is held by private timber companies or otherwise composed of roadless tracts of wilderness. The number of cities is quite few and the only relevant statistics are those related to available land adjacent to cities. In that respect it is probably no different than anyplace else.

One of the most land-restricted areas I have ever lived was Juneau Alaska. In fact, most cities in Alaska are short on land. Sounds ridiculous to outsiders. But the city of Juneau is completely enclosed by water on one side and rugged mountains that are far too steep to be buildable. The available land is clustered in small little river valleys along the shoreline. And most of the land that has yet to be developed is either Federal Forest Service land or land held in trust by native corporations. Consequently there are very few buildable lots available in the city and there is always a lot of pressure for the city to acquire and make additional land available.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2006-11-11 07:56:51

Thanks for the link on Kensington, NH. In the mid 80s it was a beautiful little town—the only thing going against it was its proximity to the Seabrook Nuclear Plant—but with Hampton Beach and the toney Hampton Falls abutting it, it was being discovered and developed by the upwardly professional while still maintaining the rural New England coast feel.

I always imagined that being just north of the MA border it was probably a little over discovered these days. I’m actually quite sad to see that town take a hit.

Comment by michael
2006-11-11 08:33:58

Those are essentially mansions. I had a look on the map and it does look pretty nice. Not too far from the beach and of course, a great private school not too far away for the kids.

I can’t imagine a 4000+ sq ft home but I guess there are folks out there with a lot of money to buy a place like that and pay for all of the expenses that that kind of lifestyle entails.

Sounds like it would be fun to go to the auction or just see the place.

 
 
Comment by michael
2006-11-11 09:35:00

I received an email from my buyer’s broker service today on MLS 2625981 which is in a neighborhood that we looked at about five years ago. Houses were selling in the $320K to $380K area and we just didn’t want to pay that much for housing. My guess is that these houses went up to the $400K to $500K range. Well, one just came on the market which surprised me. Nice neighborhood, fairly private area, a lot of land around
it that can’t be built on. Negatives is that it’s pretty close to a post office
processing center, and you can’t walk to anything (except for the post
office processing center). So you’re forced to use a car to do anything
outside of the neighborhood.

I can just hear the laughing of those saying that there’s no way that
anyone would pay $389K for this house but that’s the ask. My cutoff
point on emails is $400K so I don’t see anything higher. I haven’t seen
anything in this neighborhood for ages so I guess things are coming down
over there now. This is one of the smaller houses in the neighborhood.

 
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