November 12, 2006

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For November 12, 2006

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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80 Comments »

Comment by Dan
2006-11-12 05:42:31
 
Comment by salinasron
2006-11-12 06:02:08

Had to go into San Jose yesterday. Went to the Mall off Stevens Creek. I arrived at 10:30 am and barely got a parking space (you’d think it was the week before Xmas). We left at 3 pm and it was even more crowded. My point is that the only thing doing business was the food courts. People were grazing at every food stand stand but few were buying anything of substance. This leads me to believe that the day after Thanksgiving sales will see lots of shoppers for the Walmarts, Target for most and a few to the higher end retailers for the people with money; then the last week before Xmas the masses will hit the stores hoping to cover their debt with the end of the month’s coming paycheck.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:58:56

Maybe “they” should try helicopter drops of money in mall parking lots…

 
Comment by lunarpark
2006-11-12 10:29:31

Are you talking about Valley Fair Mall? My husband just HAD to go to the Apple store yesterday. So we drive over to VF round 3:30p.m. and cannot find a parking spot. I have never seen it so crowded. After driving around the parking lot for 15 minutes, we decide to go to the Apple store in downtown Palo Alto, even though he insists that there will be no parking downtown.

We drive by Stanford Mall - plenty of parking, though still busy. We arrive in downtown PA, it’s totally dead. The Apple store was the only place with any activity. We found parking immediately. After that, we got into a restaurant with no wait and we were practically the only diners - this was 6:00p.m. in downtown PA.

Yesterday was like a tale of two economies. I’m not sure what to make of it. (For those of you who don’t know Silicon Valley, Palo Alto is an upscale area.)

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2006-11-12 06:08:12

It’s been interesting here in Salinas. RE agents still not telling the truth and trying to keep prices high. Many houses here have been on the market a year now and haven’t sold. Boats are now not parked at the marina but in peoples driveways or on the street with ‘for sale’ signs. More cars are parked in front of house or on lawns (family members coming home?). More (three this past week) new BMW’s parked in front of these ‘affordable houses’. One gent who planned to retire last year is still working. He put his house up (he’s lived in the same house for 22yrs) at 585K and now has it priced at 500K and has had no lookers ever. He says he can’t afford to sell for less. Gotta love it.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-11-12 06:18:13

Yes, I think alot of people that were going to retire have to put it off now or go back to some job because their investment plans did not come true .That’s why you can’t tell the public that “real estate
always goes up”. The public believes sh-t like that .

 
 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 06:40:23

Clinton and Bush Sr. have joined up for tsunami relief and Katrina aid. Now they are teaming up for Realtor(tm) Relief.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061110/dcf022.html?.v=75

Won’t you donate to the Realtor(tm) Relief Fund? There are hundreds of thousands of hungry Realtors that need our help.

Comment by Ozarkian from Saratoga, CA
2006-11-12 06:48:22

Oh my gosh this is unbelievable. I hope they have counselors on hand. Is anyone on this blog attending this event? It would be fantastic if we had a mole there…

Article says the event started Friday Nov 10th and runs for 4 days. It is happening NOW? Surely someone is in New Orleans and can sneak in there for a few hours.


Realtors(R), Bringing Dollars and Dreams to New Orleans, Open 2006 Conference & Expo Here
Friday November 10, 10:48 am ET

NEW ORLEANS, Nov. 10 /PRNewswire/ — The National Association of Realtors®, fulfilling a year-long pledge to hold its annual meeting in the Crescent City, opened its 2006 REALTORS® Conference & Expo here Thursday with hopes and expectations of boosting the local economy and raising national home sales in a changing housing market.
ADVERTISEMENT

About 30,000 Realtors® will attend business meetings, political forums, and educational and training sessions at their four-day sessions at the Morial Convention Center and the Riverside Hilton, and inject more than $34 million into the New Orleans economy.

Several celebrities will also highlight the convention. Saturday’s general session will feature former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, and on Sunday evening, New Orleans native Harry Connick Jr. will perform at a special celebrity concert.

Comment by Ozarkian from Saratoga, CA
2006-11-12 06:49:18

turn off italics

 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-11-12 11:04:54

what a great place for a tidal wave!

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:35:24

‘”Stevens reminded several thousand attendees at the opening Member-Director Forum that the present national economy is right for home buyers and sellers to get into the housing market. NAR launched a “Buy Now” media campaign last weekend with full-page ads in six of the nation’s leading newspapers proclaiming, “It’s a great time to buy or sell a home.” The ads will run again next weekend. “This window of opportunity won’t last forever,” Stevens said. “The facts now are that interest rates are near 40-year lows, inventories of existing homes are higher than they have been in a decade and prices are stabilizing. But these perfect conditions for buyers are likely to change as sales pick up, prices gain traction and conditions improve for sellers next year.”‘

Sounds as if there has never been a better time to buy!

Comment by seattlerenter
2006-11-12 09:42:31

” But these perfect conditions for buyers are likely to change as sales pick up, prices gain traction and conditions improve for sellers next year.”

Then why the $40 mil. ad if it sales are going to pick up anyway. They are trying to convince buyers of something they already believe they are gong to do, right there will be a drove of buyers next year as soon as conditions are not so great as right now. Makes perfect sense.

 
 
Comment by Ashter
2006-11-12 07:38:53

What about Mississippi? I think they had far more devastation on a larger scale than New Orleans. They were’nt in a “flood” zone and couldn’t get flood insurance….who’s going to help them out?

Comment by skip
2006-11-12 08:15:49

Don’t worry - its all being taken care of in Mississippi. The law Bush signed taking away our habeas corpus rights contained a section ordering the Department of Homeland Security to investigate why Trent Lott isn’t getting as much money as he deserves to rebuild his house on the beach in Miss.

 
 
Comment by implosion
2006-11-12 13:53:50

The estimate is that 30,000 of them are going to spend $34mil over 4 days. That’s $283/day each. Doesn’t sound like they’re hungry to me.

 
Comment by chris in la jolla
2006-11-12 15:20:50

You know what they are calling it? NARdi gras.

heh. heh-heh. hehehehahahahahaHAHAAAA AAAHHAAAHAAAHAHAHA!!!

 
 
Comment by crash1
2006-11-12 06:44:03

Denver area No. 3 in foreclosure activity.
Foreclosure activity is up in most US cities, real-estate data firm RealtyTrac reported Friday. The Irvine, Calif.-based firm said that 318,355 properties in the United States entered some stage of foreclosure in the third quarter, a 17 percent increase over the prior quarter. One in every 80 Detroit-area households had a property enter some stage of foreclosure; Fort Lauderdale one in every 88, and Denver one in 90.

Greeley, Colorado is epicenter of foreclosure. Dave Gilmartin just published a new book called “The Absolutely Worst Places to Live in America”. He compiled the list by polling websites like Craigs List. Greeley was a huge votegetter.

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 06:44:14

I am sorry, that should be Realtors®. The full actual title is the Bush/Clinton Realtor® Relief Fund™. You can help out by buying an overpriced sh!!box.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:48:07

Lou — How do you make the (R) thingee?

Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 08:02:23

Just highlight, copy and paste.

Comment by bubbleboi
2006-11-12 08:34:21

How do you make the (R) thingee?

hit “option”, then “r” :-)

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Comment by NOVA RE Supernova
2006-11-12 06:49:12

[FYI - The perfect antidote for NAR Spin-meisters]

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2006/3339bubble_grdzero.html

Excerpt: “The financial fools who created the bubble that is now collapsing are desperately trying to manage the coming financial shipwreck. No longer able to keep the collapse of the bubble “secret,” they are attempting to give it an air of “inevitability,” while trying to limit the panic within the general population. That is what is behind the explosion of press reportage, which attempts to tell people, that while they will lose money, and most certainly the function of their home as a cash-producing ATM machine, the worst effects can be contained.

Meanwhile, several banking sources have reported that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulsen, the former head of Goldman Sachs, may be cooking up a scheme to try to save the banks and their financial books. According to these sources, Treasury, along with the Fed, is trying to come up with a Federally funded mechanism that would take the explosive short-term and ARM debt off the books of lenders, and reissue it at longer-term debt—a scheme that sounds strikingly similar to Felix Rohatyn’s Big MAC debt recycling operation that “handled” the New York City debt crisis three decades ago. (Fannie Mae might have been a possibility for this role— but, Fannie Mae is itself hopelessly bankrupt and may have to be bailed out.)”

Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 06:59:28

Is Lyndon out of prison yet? Last I heard he was still ranting about Queen Elizabeth being the world’s largest cocaine smuggler.

Comment by NOVA RE Supernova
2006-11-12 07:12:33

Lou,

Before you mindlessly parrot everything you hear from the media, maybe you should do some fact-checking first. LaRouche was railroaded for speaking truth to power — yes, that happens in America. One of his associates, Michael Billington, got 77 YEARS for the “crime” of “selling securities without a license” — a trumped-up charge if ever there was one — in Virginia’s infamous Rocket Docket. Note that Ivan Boesky and Michael Milken, who swindled clients out of hundreds of millions, got slaps on the wrist AND got to keep most of their ill-gotten loot, by contrast. Don’t take my word for it, research it yourself.

As far as the “Queen of England selling cocaine” smear, what he actually said — and this is a historical fact — was that the 19th Century Royal Family, through the East India Trading Company, was deeply involved in the global drug trade. Have you ever heard of the Opinum Wars in China? That was the British Crown-driven attempt to FORCE the Chinese to open their markets to “free trade” — and opium.

Please do not repeat smears that you haven’t bothered to validate. I wouldn’t necessarily want to see LaRouche as our next President, but he and his people put out some damned good analysis and information — give credit where credit is due. He’s been warning of the housing bubble for at least the past three years.

Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 07:16:42

Oh boy, a LaRouchite. Look, even a tinfoil-hat wearing FREAK like Lyndon LaRouche can be right about something once in a while.

So is the insane fraud LaRouche still in the clink?

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Comment by NOVA RE Supernova
2006-11-12 07:18:16

Maybe you could goggle him and find out for yourself.

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 07:25:16

Sorry, I am not into “goggling” a pathetic insane old man who leads a dangerous cult.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaRouche_Youth_Movement

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:46:52

It svcks when the lunatic fringe comes out strongly in favor of an unpopular view of reality which also happens to be correct. Soon anyone else who points out that the Emperor is naked earns the tinfoil hat label.

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Comment by dawnal
2006-11-12 08:11:14

Governmental involvement in drug trafficking is an old story.

http://www.tpromo2.com/gk/stacey/ciadrug.htm

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Comment by NOVA RE Supernova
2006-11-12 08:26:14

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

It’s naive to think that governments, Royal families, and respectable political dynasties are immune to the lure of filthy lucre. A few years ago the head of the NYSE, Richard Grasso, went down to Columbia to meet with the narco-terrorist FARC, supposedly on a fact-finding trip, but more likely to figure out a way (after the tech collapse) to assess the market possibilities of legalized drugs.

 
 
Comment by winjr
2006-11-12 20:49:59

“LaRouche was railroaded for speaking truth to power”

Dude, he was convicted for tax fraud — the same thing that landed Al Capone in jail, remember?

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Comment by jag
2006-11-12 07:16:28

Larouche?

He’s been a crook and a fraud since I was in college (30yrs ago). His ravings are demented (besides having been repeated over and over and over). Do yourself a favor, ignore Lyndon or risk being consider a complete fool.

Comment by NOVA RE Supernova
2006-11-12 07:26:33

Being considered a “complete fool” by complete fools doesn’t bother me. I also won’t ignore any source, no matter how unpopular, who puts out information that I can use. LaRouche is a case of “right description of the problem, wrong prescription for the solution” in my opinion. That doesn’t stop me from noting that he’s been uncannily accurate in his economic forecasts, correctly noting the fraud of the Bubble.com “New Economy” long before other pundits, and he’s been dead-on about the housing market, so far. I’ll freely admit some of his conspiracy theories seem a little tinfoil, but am not going to put on blinders and follow the herd just because I’m told to.

Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 07:31:33

Be aware of sensitive topics

If you say things like, “Can you name two prominent anti-Semites who had quasi-militant youth movements?” the LaRouche people might get unhappy. Similarly, it’s best not to talk about about LaRouche’s felony convictions or some of his other peculiarities. If you mention any of these, the LaRouche people will start talking about the conspiracy against their noble leader. They will also throw out names of respectable people who talked to, respected, or served as defense attorney to LaRouche at some point. At this point, any rational discussion is functionally over.

http://www.marco.org/203

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Comment by NOVA RE Supernova
2006-11-12 07:36:49

Charles Manson is a lunatic. But if CM had a track record of putting out accurate economic forecasts, I’d pay attention to what he had to say. That doesn’t mean I would listen to or approve of EVERYTHING that he had to say or go along with his larger worldview or agenda. Ditto for LaRouche.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-11-12 08:01:15

Lou,

Why don’t you take this over to your blog?

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-11-12 08:03:53

Sorry, I was just thinking I should have ended it. Can you delete the posts?

 
 
Comment by AE Newman
2006-11-12 21:11:06

posted Comment by NOVA RE Supernova

LaRoach is a liar, a con man, a thief and a self asorbed cultist. While he is in jail you could join Ron L. Hubbards group since you missed Jimmy J down in Guyana.

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Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-11-12 07:53:21

Interesting read.
According to the article: “Whereas the risky mortgages were originally designed for those with very strong financial records, according to the GAO, 75% of those with such mortgages packaged into securities in the first half of 2005 were not required to fully document their income.”

If that stat is true, we are indeed in trouble in the MBS market.

 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-11-12 07:03:19

This “Gated Community” silly song always makes me smile.

This has a catchy tune (Barbershop Quartet) but just the lyrics are online.

http://www.veggiegear.com/vetalygaco.html

 
Comment by David
2006-11-12 07:13:07

New October Numbers for Washington, DC and Baltimore Area:

http://tinyurl.com/ylzz6g

David
Bubble Meter Blog

 
Comment by tcm_guy
2006-11-12 07:24:06

There has been some discussion in Ben’s blog about the use of illegal aliens in home construction, and in outsourcing work to other countries, for various reasons. Here is an interesing idea:

I am hopeful that places like India, South America, Asia and Europe can send their best business people to America to work for less compensation and compete with the CEOs of corporate America. If a foreigner can get the same or better results as the CEO of a dow component outfit for 1/20 total compensation then more power to him/her.

For example, Sanford Weill recently stepped down from Citigroup. His last 13 years at Citigroup and Travelers netted him over $1 billion in salary, bonuses, and options (as reported by The New York Times - A Farewell to Citigroup - April 18, 2006). Who is to say that the right person from India or Europe or where ever could not have achieved the same (or better) results for $50 million during this same timespan? The difference of about $1 billion could have been paid out to shareholders in dividends.

From a practical point of view, could this work, and how do we make this happen?

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:42:59

Silicon Valley is already light years ahead of you on this plan. In fact, they have also heavily utilized a business model known in some circles as “outsourcing of American jobs,” where they don’t even bother incurring the expense of importing and housing a highly qualified Indian IT worker in order to exploit the fruits of his skilled labor.

‘In fact, Indian talent is adding vitality throughout Silicon Valley, where it’s getting hard to find an info-tech startup that doesn’t have some research and development in such places as Bangalore, Bombay, or Hyderabad. Says Shah: “The next trillion dollars of wealth will come from companies that straddle the U.S. and India.”

The chief architects of this rising business model are the 30,000-odd Indian IT professionals who live and work in the Valley. Indian engineers have become fixtures in the labs of America’s top chip and software companies. Indian émigrés have also excelled as managers, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists. As of 2000, Indians were among the founders or top execs of at least 972 companies, says AnnaLee Saxenian, who studies immigrant business networks at the University of California at Berkeley.’

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_49/b3861010_mz001.htm

Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-11-12 08:17:42

Most of this reporting is immigration promotion. The so-called Indian Engineers are mostly frauds. They come with high level master’s and PhD’s. My experience in going to school with one’s that got into American universities is that they cheat like crazy. Those who managed to get some type of degree don’t have near the capabilities of similar American WASP counterparts.
Most learn a few buzzwords and business-talk/tech-talk language so they can bamboozle their way into a management or administrative position. Then they find some underling to actually do the work.
I have first-hand experience with this and much anecdotal material. One particular company here in Pinellas County got rid of their “over-paid” staff when they were bought out by a German consortium who was going to make a bundle with cheaper Indian workers, and the new international communications links. They lost a lot of money and had to go back and get some real engineers.
This is just like the dot-com craze. A sales-pitch for “highly qualified” technical people. It’s all smoke and mirrors.
Don’t buy into it if you value your companies future.

Comment by spike66
2006-11-12 09:52:41

I have heard the same thing re Indian doctors doing their residency in US hospitals. Education and training in no way comparable. Friend who is orthopedic surgeon at Mt. Sinai warned me, especially in ERs and trauma centers.

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Comment by nhz
2006-11-12 07:48:37

I think it is highly likely that you will get the wrong people from Europe and Asia who will quickly demand an even higher salary.
In my country probably at least 25% of workers are ‘managers’ who get pretty good income; I keep wondering why all those (mostly unproductive) people are not outsourced to India, China etc. Probably it has to do with who decides what can be oursourced and what not.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:54:50

nhz –

You point to a serious flaw in tcm_guy’s logic, which is that the US will somehow find highly qualified Asian managers willing to work on US for a pittance compared to what their US counterparts make. The salary discounts they accept will only prove large enough allow them to edge out their silver-spoon US competition, and no larger.

Comment by J Schmitt
2006-11-12 10:08:41

Good point GetStucco. I have worked with Wipro (a major Indian computer contractor) in an outsourcing model at a Fortune 100 company. My role was as a tech lead for the company and the Wipro people were managing production support. What I found was that the on-shore rates (paid to Wipro not the contractor) were actually higher than the cost to hire a highly qualified US citizen. Meanwhile, the WIpro contractors are paid substantially below market rates. The reason they can get away with it is because the H1b program requires that the on-shore worker has a “sponsor”. It is very difficult for an H1b visa holder to get away from their Indian sponsor unless they obtain a green card (which takes several years). The program is basically an indentured servent type setup that allows corporations to hire contract labor on the cheap.

As far as the off-shore model goes, it is not that cost effective either. Rates on qualified Indian off-shore resources are atleast $25/hour. It takes one on-shore resource to manage 2 or 3 off-shore resources. Usually the on-shore resource does most of the work because they have direct access to the client where they can validate requirements and correct problems (usually caused by communication problems related to poor English and time lags). It is a clunky business model at best which, IMO, doesn’t really save companies money. I think most businesses will have to discover this on their own before the whole fad goes full circle. Just my opinion though.

The people effected most by this are USA based contractors and college graduates who find companies less willing to train a new person than they are to plug in some off-shore resources.

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Comment by rms
2006-11-12 22:42:53

“The difference of about $1 billion could have been paid out to shareholders in dividends.”

This is precisely why I won’t invest any money on wall street. It’s totally rigged against the average “diversify” investor.

 
 
Comment by tom stone
2006-11-12 07:44:42

I predict the NAR campaign will be totally ineffective,only 7% of the populace thinks realtors are trustworthy,if you consider that 50% of the populace has IQ’s under 100,and the NIH claims 13% of the populace is seriously mentally illl,perhaps you have to be stupid and crazy to trust a realtor.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 07:51:46

The main problem is that thanks to the campaign over the last decade or so to turn everyone into homeowners and ever-loosening lending standards which enabled anyone who can breath to qualify, almost anyone dumb enough to fall for their stopped-clock “There has never been a better time to buy” tagline is already a home owner.

 
Comment by nhz
2006-11-12 07:52:42

wouldn’t 63% of all Americans be enough to save the housing bubble? And you can probably add some highly intelligent and morally retarded people too (those that know how to play the RE game without playing by the rules).

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 08:04:03

A prime concern: adjustment to an ARM

Poll: Big group frets about affordability

By Jeannine Aversa
ASSOCIATED PRESS

November 12, 2006

WASHINGTON – The future is gnawing at homeowner Scott Klimek. Will the interest rate on his adjustable-rate mortgage go up? Will he be able to afford the monthly payments if it does?

Klimek, 47, bought his home in Brighton, Colo., with a five-year ARM. “If it was, like, this year that it was going to adjust, then I would really be worried, but I’m just moderately worried.” Klimek has four more years until the rate on his mortgage changes.

He is not alone in his concern.

An AP-AOL Real Estate Poll found that 36 percent of those surveyed with adjustable-rate mortgages worry that they won’t be able to afford their monthly mortgage payments if their interest rates increase. Sixty-four percent, meanwhile, aren’t sweating it and say they’re not concerned about such a scenario.

The poll also found that those who believe housing prices will go up were more likely to have adjustable-rate mortgages than those who think prices will go down or stay the same.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061112/news_1h12mortgage.html

 
Comment by WArenter
2006-11-12 08:09:14

I guess we all have our moments in this thing. Yesterday I told my husband that we might as well go out and buy an overpriced house because the politicians are going to be running scared when the SHTF in the housing bubble, and a big bail out for F’d borrowers is probably coming. Felt like what Nhz describes about the Netherlands is probably in our future.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 08:13:43

Don’t worry — they aren’t making that much more land anymore in the Netherlands. Our inventory correction has only just begun, and they are still building new houses. Unless this time is “different,” and the biggest price bubble in US real estate history ends with the smallest correction in the shortest time ever, then we have at least until 2009 to watch a steady stream of gloomy reports about falling home prices until we reach the price trough.

Comment by WArenter
2006-11-12 08:52:25

Thanks GS. I’m just so fed up with this whole thing tody.

Comment by WArenter
2006-11-12 08:54:08

That would be ‘today’.

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Comment by JWM in SD
2006-11-12 09:19:23

Do not buy right now and do not buy into the nonsense that the Demos will save the FBs…at least not yet. There are some very serious mitigating economic factors that should and hopefully prevent them from being bailed out. Also, do not buy into the “inflation will save us” garbage either. There are some very serious repurcussions if the Fed were to do that…namely hyperinflation and loss of reserve currency status (think oil denominated in Euros instead of USD as it is right now).

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 10:29:02

Right, JWM. The Chinese are already trying to line up their black gold reserves, and any hint that dollar inflation will soon spike up would hasten the process.

 
Comment by lunarpark
2006-11-12 10:56:14

Speaking of China and the Democrats:

“In the run-up to the US elections, some Democrats lambasted Bush for the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs as a result of a tidal wave of cheap imports, resulting from what they say is a vastly undervalued Chinese currency.’ ”

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/061111/usa/us_vote_china_2

 
Comment by WArenter
2006-11-12 23:02:09

Thanks guys. It has just been one of those days. Yeah, I don’t want to be a bear who capitulates at the 11th hour. I get very angry as these stories come out over and over again about unqualified buyers - even though it was predicted on this blog long ago. I am disgusted with the ridiculous prices of houses! And just fed up with the whole stupid thing.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 08:19:11

A little-mentioned side effect of the bubble: Greater incentive to build homes in areas where they should probably never be built…
————————————————————————————————-
Danger zone

Homes increasingly moving into wildfire territory

By John Pomfret
THE WASHINGTON POST

November 12, 2006

BANNING – Dennis Watkins wanted a piece of the good life. Several years ago, the Frito-Lay salesman and his wife bought a 3-acre plot of land in the San Jacinto Mountains. In May, they completed their house – a 3,000-square-foot ranch-style abode 3,500 feet above the smog of western Riverside County.

Firefighters battle the deadly Esperanza Fire before dawn in the San Jacinto Mountains on October 27, 2006 near Banning, west of Palm Springs.
“We built our dream house,” said Watkins, 54, enthused as he surveyed his estate. “We planned to retire here. After 14 years living in tract housing with no backyard, we loved the space.”

The Esperanza fire in late October roared through the mountains where Watkins lives. It torched 63 structures and 63 square miles, and killed five firefighters while they tried to save a weekend house, making it the deadliest wildfire for firefighters since 2001. Last week, Raymond Lee Oyler of Beaumont was charged with arson and murder in connection with the blaze.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061112/news_mz1h12danger.html

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-12 08:26:14

Does the explicit govt guarantee make Ginnie Mae MBS a better bet than Fannie Mae MBS?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061112/news_lz1b11ginnie.html

Comment by johnfromia
2006-11-12 23:50:33

As I understand it, Ginnie Maes are backed by the full faith and credit of the US, just like US Treasuries. Fan and Fred have an implied guarantee because of their government sponsored origins and the sense that they are too big to fail.

Comment by johnfromia
2006-11-12 23:56:02

Oh yeah, and to answer you’re question I’d say yes in terms of credit risk. Though I’m pretty risk averse and both are rated AAA by the major rating agencies (F&F becaused of the implied guarantee). But if the Feds let Fan and Fred go down, look out below in terms of the economy and the financial system. So I can’t really see how they don’t step in.

 
 
 
Comment by Pointlines
2006-11-12 08:54:25

The reason for my post is to show you the contrast between realtors: My wife and I spoke with a couple of realtors seperately yesterday - south Orange County CA. Realtor 1 is a seasoned vet with 20 years experience, Realtor 2the other is one with 7 years experience. Our situation is that we sold last year and have been renting since.

Realtor 1 - “You are in the perfect situation. Hold off on buying as long as you can as this is not going to be a soft landing. I bet I can find you prices $100K cheaper just in the next few months as I know of so many people who are overextended. You may want to look at some postive cash flow rentals in a couple of years as you will see bargains galore.”

Realtor 2: “Right now is a great time to buy as I have clients who have bought and their homes are empty. They are motivated to sell. Prices will go up in January. Rates are going to drop next year.”

Comment by JWM in SD
2006-11-12 09:21:14

Wow, that’s quite the contrast. Was this over the past weekend?

 
Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-11-12 09:39:34

Nice Post!

Thanks, keep them coming.

 
Comment by johnfromia
2006-11-13 00:00:37

Good stuff, Pointlines. Keep em coming.

 
 
Comment by seattlerenter
2006-11-12 09:26:11

They still think we are stupid here in the NW

http://seattle.craigslist.org/sno/rfs/233712218.html

My fav part is you are locked into a alreday high price plus 12% anum appreciation, since we are appreciating at 22% a year don’t ya know.

Comment by J Schmitt
2006-11-12 10:17:14

Lake Stevens is way out there. The commute to virtually all major employers is horrendous.

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-11-12 09:38:26

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

So this morning I was hanging out at the El Paso County dump, just knocking back a few 40-ozs and shooting rats with my .22 revolver, as we all do from time to time. Suddenly my tranquility was disturbed by the racket of an incredibly delapidated figure who darted in out of nowhere to snatch up several of the rodents I’d managed to dispatch despite my unsteady state. With a shock of recognition, I recognized the beaten-down FB husband of “Suzanne Researched This!” fame.

“FB Boy! What are doin’” I managed to stammer.

“Collecting dinner!” he replied. “Rat kabob is might tasty, marinaded in Mad Dog 20/20 and salted with tears of regret over listening to that RE harpy Suzanne and that succubus wife of mine.”

“Ah, Suzanne,” I nodded. “I’ve seen her standing on the street corner in her fishnets a time or two since then. And I have her number, if you’d like it.”

The poor FB grimaced. “Not really. You see, after Suzanne’s second arrest for solicitation, she got locked up in the same holding cell as my soon-to-be ex-wife, who’d been picked up for aggressive panhandling and vagrancy. They had some words over the quality of Suzanne’s ‘research’, and one hellacious cat-fight followed.” He brightened. “Hey, at least the assault charge they added means my wife gets ‘three hots and a cot’ which is more than what we’ve had since our house got foreclosed on.”

Well, I just had to donate the rest of my 40-oz refreshments to the poor fellow and helped him find a car antenae as a spit to roast them on. And to think that some in here have accused me of being heartless….

Comment by P'cola Popper
2006-11-12 10:53:52

Good one Sammy!

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-11-12 11:15:04

Ok where do I send the bill for the new keyboard and monitor.

 
 
Comment by graspeer
2006-11-12 09:46:29

Don’t know if this has been posted before but it shows where at least some of the money for the Florida bubble came from.

“Feds: Ex-hospital exec milked babies’ funds

A former top-ranking executive at New York-Presbyterian Hospital took money meant for babies and poor mothers and used it to outfit her opulent Florida home, Manhattan prosecutors said yesterday”

http://tinyurl.com/y2cxlc

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-11-12 09:49:58

We really need to bring back public flogging for cases like this.

 
Comment by AE Newman
2006-11-12 21:19:30

posted ” A former top-ranking executive at New York-Presbyterian Hospital took money meant for babies and poor mothers and used it to outfit her opulent Florida home”

He has learned well from GWBush and Dickhead Cheny!

 
 
Comment by SD_suntaxed
2006-11-12 10:06:16

Craigslist flopped rehab flip in SD.
or How to Lose $54K or More In Just 6 Weeks (and counting) http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/233705758.html

This ’smart choice’ was purchased on 9/29/06 for $629K and is being listed for $575K

Someone also tried to disguise an ugly house and silly price with half the tropical plant section from Home Depot.

Comment by graspeer
2006-11-12 10:18:11

I can just imagine the buyer moving in and all the plants are gone and have been moved on to “stage” some other flipper property.

 
 
Comment by Phi
2006-11-12 14:25:22

Just attended the public action held by Rich Wa$$er Auctioneers for the 2399 Silver Lake Blvd - 90039 (Los Angeles). It had been advertised here in craigslist: http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/rfs/232013004.html

Showed up at 12:30 PM, half hour before the auction. Was the only person there with the exception of the nervous looking Auction staff and the very nervous owner.

Poked around a bit. Quite a large loft, 4 levels, ‘modernist’ style. Just build in October of 2005. (Ouch!). Anycase, at around 1, I talked with the receptionist/auction assistant and she thought that the auction would be canceled because no bidders arrived with checks.

Went down stairs and was hanging out with some of the other lookie-lou people when the auction assistant said that they were going to waive the $25,000 check requirement and that we could bid with out qualification. A few of use went in and they started the auction. Bidding started at 100K and moved slowly, very slowly up to 350. I bid 400, somebody else bid 425 and the auction stopped there.

I doubt that the owner accepted the bid.

at $425 + 10% buyers perimium, the final price was $468, which is slighly more than you could cover with rents on the unit. The unit could easily rent for $2500, might even get as much as 2800 to 3000 per month. Not much more though.

So much for getting rich with condos. I expect the seller will reject the offer and rent the unit himself and just ’suck up’ the monthly loss versus taking a big loss on the sale.

Lesson: Auctions where the seller has the right to reject a bid = auction with no qualified bidders.

 
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