November 13, 2006

“The Market Has Flipped Upside Down”

A housing report from New Orleans City Business. “The market has flipped upside down and buyers may soon have the upper hand, real estate professionals say. From the North Shore to the South Shore, there are more properties for sale than there is demand, the classic oversupplied market.”

“September revealed the largest supply-demand gap since Katrina, with 7,398 homes for sale in southeastern Louisiana and only 1,262 sold, according to Prudential Gardner Realtors.”

“Realtors have begun stressing the need for sellers to consider lowering prices. In a market where 50 to 70 homes in the same price range are up for sale, ‘you better be priced competitively,’ said Mary Ann Casey, broker/owner who services Lakeview, Mid-City, Uptown and Old Metairie.”

“Casey said the situation calls to mind the oil industry bust of the 1980s when it took 15 to 18 months on average to sell homes in an oversupplied market. Sellers need to be educated about pricing their property correctly, she said. ‘It’s a whole different marketing approach than it was pre-Katrina.’”

The Dallas Morning News. “Texas is seeing signs of a slowdown in the housing industry, but the downturn is not as sharp as in some other parts of the country, the top official of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said Monday. ‘We are seeing some signs of slower growth in the construction and construction-related industries,’ said Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.”

“‘Housing permits softened in August, builders are slowing their home construction and home inventories are inching up,’ he said. ‘We haven’t seen what I call the coastal blues, the turndown you see in the rest of the country in housing,’ he said.”

The Star Telegram. “Borrowers in the Fort Worth-Arlington area are more likely to default on mortgage loans backed by government insurance than consumers in other major metropolitan areas in Texas and throughout the United States.”

“As of Sept. 30, 5.5 percent of FHA loans made in Fort Worth-Arlington went into default within two years of being made, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. That rate compares with 3.3 percent nationwide during the same period and 4.7 percent for all of Texas. Partly as a result, some local lenders are tightening their standards.”

“‘It’s a concern. Foreclosures in general are high in North Texas, and our numbers have gotten worse,’ said Jim DuBose, president of Fort Worth-based Colonial Savings, the largest mortgage lender in the Fort Worth-Arlington area, which includes Tarrant, Hood, Parker and Wise counties.”

“Colonial’s FHA loans, which DuBose said represent about 3 percent of Colonial’s business, defaulted at 161 percent of the Fort Worth-Arlington rate. After examining its loan portfolio, DuBose said, Colonial discovered that of about 9,400 FHA loans it made over the past five years, loans that included down-payment assistance from not-for-profit groups went into default 20 percent of the time.”

“That compared with 9 percent of FHA loans without down-payment assistance over the same five years. ‘So they’re more than twice as likely to be delinquent. That’s why we stopped doing down-payment-assistance loans,’ DuBose said.”

“Gary Lacefield, executive VP for compliance at Plano-based W.R. Starkey Mortgage, said that just over a year ago his employer made it a policy that if a borrower couldn’t qualify for a loan at a 30-year term, he or she wouldn’t qualify for a shorter-term loan, either. ‘Once we did that, the number of defaults dropped dramatically,’ Lacefield said.”

“Among locally based lenders, Judith Smith said she experienced a spike in defaults in loans that independent brokers brought to the lender and in January stopped accepting loan packages from brokers. ‘I was having way too many defaults, so I decided not to do it,’ she said. ‘We did business with people I have known forever, and it probably was the luck of the draw. But I got tired of it.’”

“During the nationwide housing boom that just recently started to cool down, lenders have been offering loan terms that allowed more and more marginal borrowers to qualify for noninsured loans, and that meant less business for FHA.”

“In response, Congress is considering authorizing an FHA program that would allow 100 percent loans. But several observers questioned the wisdom of such a move. Loans that finance 100 percent of the purchase price could be setting up a marginal borrower for heartache, said David O’Brien, executive director of Housing Opportunities of Fort Worth.”

“In markets with little or no housing appreciation, such as much of Texas, he said, lenders do borrowers no favors by getting them into a house they can’t afford or sell at a price sufficient to cover the mortgage amount.”

“‘Down-payment assistance versus 100 percent loans — it’s the same thing, isn’t it?’ said Jim Gaines of the Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. ‘We have people being lent 100 percent, or more, of the home price. You’re upside-down the day you move in,’ he said.”

“‘Some of these programs, not intentionally, have the effect of putting people in a position to fail,’ Lacefield said.”

“Sunday afternoon, Terry Johnson walked out of a packed hotel ballroom on his way to becoming a homeowner, thanks to a $43,000 winning bid on a 1,064-square-foot home in Fort Worth. The whole process took less than two hours.”

“‘You get a lot better price on a home,’ the disabled Fort Worth veteran said after signing some papers and handing over a deposit.”

“Mr. Johnson was one of about 250 people who gathered at the DFW hotel to bid on 53 foreclosed homes that were auctioned. Interest is rising because of the soaring number of foreclosed homes, both nationwide and in Texas. Foreclosed properties now account for more than a quarter of the preowned houses on sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.”

“With that kind of volume, some people’s misfortunes are quickly becoming others’ opportunities. ‘If you miss a deal, there’s another one coming,” said Ed Massey, who came to the auction to bid on a house in Crowley. ‘The economy is down, and since it’s down, it’s a buyers’ market.’”

“Sunday’s auction was the fifth one Hudson & Marshall has held in Texas in the last five days. With a weakening housing market and higher interest rates, ‘there are quite a few foreclosures in the pipeline coming down,’ said Dave Webb, Hudson & Marshall’s co-owner.”




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70 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-11-13 10:33:40

Also from the Dallas News:

‘The good news for first-time buyers is that prices are falling in many overheated housing markets. ‘I hope that as affordability starts to improve we see more first-time buyers again,’ Mr. Lereah said. ‘It’s critical for the housing sector.’

‘Buyers increasingly are using nonconventional mortgages. The Realtors’ survey found that 45 percent of first-time home purchases were made without a down payment. Three years ago, only about a quarter of loans were made without requiring upfront cash. ‘That makes a lot of sense with what happened in the marketplace,’ Mr. Lereah said. ‘The zero-down payment loans became very popular.’

‘Mortgages with a low or no down payment have contributed to high foreclosure rates in many markets, industry analysts say. ‘There is nothing wrong with an interest-only or low down payment loan, as long as you grant it to someone with the wherewithal to make the payments,’ he said.’

Comment by guyintucson
2006-11-13 10:52:22

‘The good news for first-time buyers is that prices are falling in many overheated housing markets.” Mr. Lereah said. ‘It’s critical for the housing sector.’

First and all othres - time buyers just say “NO”.

Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-13 11:02:56

Super easy credit is like an addictive drug; so, I agree with your ‘just say no’ sentiment.

 
Comment by Catherine
2006-11-13 12:01:51

So how is it “critical” for the housing section, you pompous bag of wind? It’s only “critical” to the trade group you represent and not the public whom you mispresent.

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2006-11-13 11:23:35

It’s like a merry go round. You have to get on the ride.

 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-11-13 11:56:51

any news on corpus christi ?
RE katrina for 110 billion doens’t everyoen get a taxpayer provided house ?

Comment by AE Newman
2006-11-13 12:04:26

flat posts “everyoen get a taxpayer provided house ?”

No they get two, one for vacations. Then one for everybody in Iraq too.

 
 
Comment by AE Newman
2006-11-13 15:35:21

Posted “The Market Has Flipped Upside Down”

More like right side up!

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-13 10:39:28

“Casey said the situation calls to mind the oil industry bust of the 1980s when it took 15 to 18 months on average to sell homes in an oversupplied market. Sellers need to be educated about pricing their property correctly, she said. ‘It’s a whole different marketing approach than it was pre-Katrina.’”

She almost suggests that it is Katrina’s fault that they are oversupplied. Guess what — the whole country is oversupplied! What does that have to do with Katrina?

Comment by Army No. Va.
2006-11-13 14:15:16

Katrina wiped out a lot of the housing stock in SE La. But is also wiped out a lot of livelihoods and many will not return.

The sad thing was driving through Lakeway and seeing all the abandoned homes with one out of thirty being rebuilt and many of the rest with For Sale signs. I figured maybe I’d buy one for $10,000 or so…but nooooo., they want $250K-$500K for these shells in the shadow of the 17th street canal!!!

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-11-13 10:46:45

So, a few brokers in N Texas won’t take the shoddy loans. So what, there’s 10 of them who will for every one who won’t.

 
Comment by crisrose
2006-11-13 10:48:44

“She almost suggests that it is Katrina’s fault that they are oversupplied. Guess what — the whole country is oversupplied!”

Because after Katrina assorted real estate ‘guru’ con artists were recommending New Orleans as a sure win location to the dumb money.

Last March, before I realized he’d been conned by a professional real estate ‘investor,’ my ex mentioned to me he was thinking about buying a hurricane damaged fixer in New Orleans and flipping it.

Comment by crisrose
2006-11-13 10:50:21

professional real estate ‘investor’ = recently fired, unable to find another job

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-13 10:51:41

Given the amount of federal money thrown at NOLA after Katrina, that may not have been the worst choice of locales to flip last year…

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-11-13 11:18:41

Yea, I’d have to agree with that. If you were going to flip single family homes there was no better place to do it.

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2006-11-13 12:04:06

Dunno about that, especially given the crazy high proces some out-of-towners were said to be offering. (I personally told friends there that if they ever thought of selling, to do so then and take advantage of that bubble. Some did — and left, and are up here in NoVa now.)

I’m pretty familiar with the area and how it’s faring after Katrina, and even though there was a lot of money shoveled in, most of it didn’t seem to make its way into housing — unless you count expensive rooms for 8 months at the Marriott as housing.

Seriously, a lot of the money went instead to subsistence (e.g. food, supplies), a lot more went to paying for hotels outside the area for refugees - and that went for a lot longer than most people imagine. Friends who work in the hotel industry tell me it was in some ways a gold mine, even though they were later faced with total refurbishment of the rooms involved.

Another heap of money went (or is due to go eventually ) to Infrastructure repairs, but that won’t necessarily push up housing. And if you were foolish enough to buy a damaged flipper house in New Orleans hoping to get rich due to government-money-based windfalls, you soon found that you couldn’t find anyone reliable to fix the place up for you, much less to get an electrical inspection scheduled. But what did they expect when there are two inspectors and 100,000 wrecked houses and a city government like that? Real mess for “investors”, especially given the abundance of competing housing development in St Tammany, St. John, St. Charles — all of which are ABOVE sea level and have lots less crime and infrastructure destruction.

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Comment by crisrose
2006-11-13 12:19:46

“And if you were foolish enough to buy a damaged flipper house in New Orleans hoping to get rich due to government-money-based windfalls, you soon found that you couldn’t find anyone reliable to fix the place up for you, much less to get an electrical inspection scheduled.”

Exactly.

 
Comment by Army No. Va.
2006-11-13 14:19:21

I drove through there and figured $10K for one of the damaged homes in Lakeview and $3K in the 9th Ward. But forget about that!

 
 
 
 
Comment by boulderbo
2006-11-13 12:00:04

we toured new orleans last february, speculators were everywhere (this was still the peak of the bubble). people were paying $200K for $800K homes in nola’s better neighborhoods. unfortunately, they were flooded and not another human being for blocks. true pioneers. from what i’ve heard recently, not much has changed in these neighborhoods in twelve months, most of the middle class packed up the suv and headed north to baton rouge for good.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2006-11-13 13:13:02

During my visit to New Orleans this last summer, I saw $400,000 condos advertised for sale not far from neighborhoods that had been destroyed and largely abandoned.

 
 
Comment by nova_renter
2006-11-13 10:51:18

$43k for a 1,000 sq ft home is pretty good. How do you go about the mortgage when you buy at an auction?

Comment by az_lender
2006-11-13 11:04:12

Hope someone answers this. I don’t actually know. Maybe you have to have the cash…which might (ARRGH) be a HELOC from your other place — if that happens a lot, no wonder the pyramid must collapse. Meanwhile, persons who REALLY have the cash are probably just watching the falling knives and getting their income from bonds. Or whatever.

 
Comment by DC_Too
2006-11-13 11:16:45

They lay out the rules before the auction. Sometimes it’s all cash, sometimes you have to write a check for a set amount with balance due at closing. Know before you go!

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-11-13 12:00:53

see response to gepetoh below

 
Comment by boulderbo
2006-11-13 12:02:32

i’ll be at the denver auction this week, but my understanding is cash due at closing. if you can secure a mortgage in the time frame allowed, then that’s your cash. otherwise have the dough or lose the deposit.

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-13 10:58:26

“In response, Congress is considering authorizing an FHA program that would allow 100 percent loans…. ”

When are they going start paying these FBs a signing bonus?

Comment by walt526
2006-11-13 12:18:40

That’s rather ridiculous. People can’t save up for a 3% DP??? 3% of a $300,000 home is $9,000. As Suze Orman calls it, “play house” for half a year. Figure out what property taxes, insurance, and PMI will be (probably around $500/month, if you also subtract the mortgage deduction) and put that cash into a savings account. If you can go 18 months without touching it, then you might be ready to own a house. If you can put more than that away, then you’re in good shape (in which case you can buy in earlier than 18 months). If you find yourself needing to cheat, then you’re not not ready. And its best to figure that out before going into debt.

And if the prospective buyer is worried about getting priced out of the market because of 30% appreciation in that time, then they’re truly better off being stuck on the sidelines.

Also, the goal of Congress should not be to make homeownership extremely easy for everyone–the private mortgage lending industry does plenty of that already. If anything, the FHA lending standards need to be much more restrictive. The government is not doing people any favors to get them into a house that they clearly cannot afford over any extended period of time.

Comment by travanx
2006-11-13 12:27:40

CAL FHA loans are somewhat strict. The place wouldnt give me a loan for a monthly mortgage above 42% of my before tax pay. Its amazing if you qualify for low income what benefits there are. I just got priced out of moderate income for this year so I am waiting until next. Though the rates are actually now lower through a normal bank than CALFHA which seems to go against every possible benefits of those loans. Unless you buy in certain cities as a low income person (there is at least $50-60k to be had free of charge in this situation). Which in my opinion makes the stuff in that price range in those area artificially priced that much higher than they should be.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2006-11-13 20:16:15

probably around $500/month, if you also subtract the mortgage deduction

Where, in Afghanistan?

 
 
Comment by AE Newman
2006-11-13 15:40:12

mrktMaven posts “When are they going start paying these FBs a signing bonus? ”

LOL…LOL… That was the best laugh of the day. Very sharp and very funny.

 
 
Comment by gepetoh
2006-11-13 11:07:00

OT, but I have an anecdotal question: I saw on Ziprealty a SFR for sale in Mission Viejo, CA – 5/3, 2100 sf, $450K – that appeared to be a great deal. It sounded to good to be true, so I went to the address. Indeed, it was a home for auction, and had the broker’s url on it. I went home and looked up the site, and the house was being auctioned off in a couple of weeks.

But here was the catch: All cash sale, and upon winning the bid, you had to put down $25K for escrow. The escrow had to close in 30 days, or you lose your $25K, REGARDLESS of reason, including if the escrow was delayed for unforeseen reasons. By the way, the $25K had to be made out to an escrow company (I imagine one that was doing the transaction with the broker). Another words, if the escrow done through the company THEY specified was delayed for ANY reason, you lose your cash, and you don’t get the home.

Is this even legal? The website claimed they have been doing business for 17 years, but this just seems unenforceable to put that kind of conditions on a sale. Does anyone have any insight?

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-11-13 11:59:22

Yes, it’s legal and enforceable. In response to you and the guy above. If these houses are truly undervalued ie: 70% or less then market. In scenarios like this if you don’t have the cash what you do is find a equity or hard money lender to front you the cash. Be forewarned this technique is expensive. What they’ll do is bring cashier checks to the auction up to a pre-determined amount. If the price goes above that amount no deal. Again it’s very pricey to get this done so make sure it’s a deal. Plus unless you are very experienced ensure you take a damn good contractor or inspector with you during the viewing of the property which usually occurs a few days before the auction. Again this process is pricey each lender varies on the cost. Furthermore I would only do this with something I could buy 60 to 65% of the current market and could refi in a matter of months. The value of the purchase would have to severly exceed the cost to acquire it.

In honesty I don’t advocate buying anything using this technique in the current market. For single family homes better deals are coming.

In a scenario like this it would be very hard to lose your 25k by fault of the buyer. Total cost of the property is deposited in escrow. The rest is obtaining a TSG or Title Insurance and signing the paperwork. Also i doubt they would retain your deposit if the delay in escrow was not your fault. But I would try to secure a copy of the sales agreement/escrow intructions prior to bidding to ensure that.

Comment by boulderbo
2006-11-13 12:08:54

anybody jumping in this early is catching a falling knife, imho. i am gonna go to the denver auction to get a sense of how low these homes will go for. as far as i know you can still get 100% financing from the subprime lenders (at least this week).

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-11-13 12:21:00

“anybody jumping in this early is catching a falling knife, imho.”

True, especially with the auctions, t-sales and reo’s. I wouldn’t take a chance with convential 100% financing in this enviroment right now. That could get caught on a hitch or dry up at a moments notice and you’d be out of 25k. I rather go the hard money route have the cash upfront and not take a chance on a lender seat shiner getting fickle in the middle of my deal. The extra expense is worth it in that sense.

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Comment by feepness
2006-11-13 17:06:11

What is a “t-sale”?

 
Comment by jim A
2006-11-14 05:15:37

What is “conventional 100% financing”? In my book conventional financing is 80% + 20% downpayment.

 
 
 
Comment by gepetoh
2006-11-13 12:36:30

Thanks for the info. I had no intention of actually buying, but the price of $450K for this house is comparable to 5 years ago prices. Not that the house would actually sell for that in an auction, but it seemed too complicated to be worth it anyway.

 
 
Comment by david cee
2006-11-13 18:33:17

Do you truly believe if they priced this house on the open market at 70% of value it wouldn’t sell in hours? These auctions are loaded with shills to get a market value price, and if it was really below market, the auctioneer’s sister would be getting a new house before the auction. Wise up, this is just another market gimmick. Been there, done that

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-11-13 11:11:42

hehehe…

The HUD/FHA foreclosure debacle has only just begun.

For those who are unfamiliar with the FHA appraisal system, I’ll provide some background.

Prior to FED mandated licensing for appraisal, the HUD/FHA mortgage guarantee program involved the use of appraiser’s from a pre-set “fee panel system”.

An educationally qualified person usually secured a position on the “panel” by usually by either somebody retiring or moving.

In essence admission to the panel was being at the right place at the right time. It’s just the way it was.

Assignments were made on a rotational basis from a regional FHA/HUD office.

The lenders DID NOT control who was going to get what. All appraisal requests went thru FHA/HUD administration.

As such, as an FHA appraiser you were autonomous relative to what you reported and free from business witholding black-mail by mortgage lenders.

It was a pretty decent system.

You called a spade a spade and regarded the US taxpayer as your ultimate climate.

However, in 1993 with the advent of licensing, Congress in it’s infinite wisdom, decided to dismantle the panel system and give the lender the option to “choose” their own appraiser’s from the certified list which now had been “opened” to the incompetant hordes unleased by the licensing process.

Needless to say once that panel system was dissolved, and the mortgage sleazes got control of the selction process that was the ballgame, for anybody honest and legit.

The rackeetering game of originating agent pushin’ deals to a sleazebag L/O with an appraisal hack in his pocket flourished.

I knew guys with 20 years tenure on the panel who never got another FHA/HUD related assignment.

A few went down to DC to protest, but it didn’t do any good.

FHA/HUD housing has always pretty much bottom of the barrel stuff
depreciation wise.

However, these was a set of minimum property standards which a building had to adhere to for underwriting purposes.

Severe physical deficiencies were address with what was called a Valuation Condition Seet which required repairs before a sale could close.

But with the hacks in control, the repair condition requirements became nothing but a joke.

Check the average boxes, and get your fee as quick as possible.

F*ck the US taxpayer. Gimme my money.

I remember seein’ a memo on the local HUD/FHA office bulletin board from DC requestin’ a meeting of all the great financial minds to square away the FHA foreclosure debacle back in ‘90/’91, things got so bad.

Obviously, when you control the printing presses there’s a solution.

My guess, as this disaster unfolds, a lit torch and a jug of gaz, will
do more good than the presses this time around.

There’s billions of $$$ of rotten, horrifically depreciated, worthless garbage out there, that the US taxpayer is on the hook for.

Your US Congress in action.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-11-13 11:48:14

Lots of good info, thanks!

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-11-13 11:51:14

Wow, Hd74man ,thanks . I was wondering where the FHA/HUD min. house standards/health and safety violation requirements went to and why the system went awry .

 
Comment by Catherine
2006-11-13 12:03:07

Wow. Some good education here, thanks.

 
Comment by scdave
2006-11-13 13:54:59

HD;…Good historical stuff….It reminded me of the “Requirement” of a section 1 termite clearance as a condition to loan funding….That all went out the window….No longer required…

 
Comment by johnfromia
2006-11-13 19:17:05

Wow, scary stuff. Life imitates the Sopranos except the REIC is the crime family. RICO prosecutions, anyone?

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-13 11:11:57

Why does’nt Lereah just put a sock in it? He has zero credibility.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-13 11:32:47

He still has a job to do.

 
Comment by vioviv
2006-11-13 11:34:02

If credibility was the standard, you’d turn on the television every night and find dead air.

 
Comment by North GA Dave
2006-11-13 11:52:16

“Comment by mrktMaven FL
2006-11-13 11:11:57
Why does’nt Lereah just put a sock in it? He has zero credibility.”

He may not have any credibility in places like this, but unfortunately the masses are still listening.

Comment by captain jack sparrow
2006-11-13 13:53:45

To their everlasting detriment.

 
Comment by jim A
2006-11-14 05:18:24

The masses certainly aren’t listening to him directly. They may, however be listening to RE agents who are parroting what he says.

 
 
 
Comment by jonaskinny
2006-11-13 11:43:14

ot but thought you would want to know. my neighbor always shoots his mouth off (5 years now) about leverage, reach, real estate == no job etc. He has a trophy place in our town one block from the beach. It will go REO bank owned in one week.

Its all around us.

Comment by az_lender
2006-11-14 03:49:11

It will be interesting to see which of us no-job big talkers will survive this episode of history. I think of myself as oh-so-sane because my personal RE holdings are about 2% of my net worth. However, my deeds of trust still constitute 1/3 to 1/2 of my assets,down from close to 60% a year ago, despite my declaration here that az_lender is making No New Loans. Right now, someone who owes me $35400 has found a buyer, and I have been asked whether I would like to continue as financier. Likely sale price might be $65000, and I bet they will ask me to increase the amt of the loan. Ha ha no deal. Maybe they will find a lender-bagholder who will give them a better rate than my 9.6%, anyway. The relevance of all this to jonaskinny’s post about the bigmouth is, maybe I am really that same bigmouth and just don’t know it. Caution, caution.

Comment by jonaskinny
2006-11-14 09:02:03

you have shown more consideration in this post than he has in the last 5 years.

 
 
 
Comment by Roger H
2006-11-13 11:49:13

Is there any real movement to not permit the zero down loans since they have such high default rates? In Austin, about 1/3 of our market is zero down including a lot of investors posing as first time home buyers. If these loans go away - it would be a disaster.

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-13 12:04:53

They will go away and it will be a disaster.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-11-13 12:06:46

I have said this a number of time ,…if a borrower does not have any skin in the game they are more likely to default . People think twice about putting their hard-earned cash into a investment if they are at risk of loss . The buyer/borrower is alot more serious about being a homeowner and they have shown the ability to save , budget, and take a obligation serious.

Now they got jerk deals out there where the buyer wants to be paid a car or given a 50K kickback to buy and move into a house ,with no down-payment . Is there something wrong with this picture ?

Comment by GetStucco
2006-11-13 14:28:52

Either the dual mission to make everyone a homeowner and keep home prices at historically overvalued levels will succeed, or else those who have savings and a credit rating will step aside and let those who have nothing to lose and are happy to buy with no skin in the game catch a falling knife. Which version of the future will play out?

 
 
Comment by Army No. Va.
2006-11-13 14:53:48

In the last bust in Austin, it became 20% down or owner finance or no deal for several years.

 
 
Comment by IllinoisBob
2006-11-13 12:02:49

Question for all you wizards in RE, my fuzzy memory recalls that one could have bought a real nice place in Dallas / Fort Worth complete with a huge pool in the backyard for a song years after the RE crash in the early 80’s. I think you still could in 85. If this was true, we will be in the crater a long time after the current “correction”
Bob

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-11-13 12:21:19

Exactly …. That’s why any predictions of a soft landing is just a bunch of spin . You have to much inventory , you have to many people on loans that can’t make the adjusted up payments ,you have to many people that are going to lose their job ,you got to many speculators/flippers needing to sell , you have the Feds needing to raise interest rates ,etc. etc. etc.

Comment by travanx
2006-11-13 12:33:25

it does seem like a soft landing still. but the soft landing looks like something more of a really long extended landing. stuff is dropping $10,000 at a time in my price range of under $400k. And everything is sitting on the market. So with prices slowly dropping and nothing selling eventually there is just going to be so much that no one will ever be able to sell their place. So a long soft landing sounds about right. But the before and after will be a huge difference.

Comment by HARM
2006-11-13 12:44:02

Prices steadily dropping by $10,000 “at a time” (a month?) while inventory just sits unsold is not the definition of a “soft landing” in the real estate world. This is the very definition of a “hard landing”. Prices staying level for 10-15 years with steady sales (while rents and incomes catch up via inflation alone) would be considered a “soft” landing.

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Comment by az_lender
2006-11-13 16:45:41

Somewhere I saw a set of definitions as follows:
Soft landing — 0% to 20% overall decline in nominal prices
Hard landing — 20% to 40% overall decline in nom. prices
Crash — 40% to 60% overall decline in nom. prices
(They didn’t say what they would call a larger decline)
My vote is for a crash. The “hard landing” would bring prices back to reasonable ratio with rents, but job loss and rent declines likely to promote it into a crash.

 
 
Comment by Army No. Va.
2006-11-13 14:57:17

The landing will seem “soft” for a while…then one day you’ll notice a whole page of foreclosures in 4 point font in your Sunday paper at prices that are 40%-60% of today (for most suburbs, your mileage may vary some depending on location and quality). Then it will hit you that it is a hard landing.

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Comment by AE Newman
2006-11-13 15:46:58

travanx posts ” it does seem like a soft landing still. but the soft landing looks like something more of a really long extended landing.”

I hear you. Still many people could have a job and the house and payment, they could never afford. Thank you toxic loan.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-11-13 22:16:15

Look , if all these FB’s and GF’s are able to hang on for a very long time ,great ,fine , good luck to them ,but do you really think that is going to happen ?
In fact , I do think there will be a soft landing in some areas.

Hey ,maybe there will be a will-power in people to over-come whatever hardships they have to endure to keep their house . Maybe the flippers will become long term landlords while they wait for the big come back for about 10 years . Maybe all the people laid off will find
reasonable employment and they won’t go down . Maybe all the excess inventory will be bought by rich baby-boomers or someone who is a end-user soon , maybe the Feds will think of something new and maybe and maybe and maybe …Maybe it will be a soft landing .I don’t rule out anything .

 
 
 
 
Comment by HHH
2006-11-13 13:46:40

I guess it depends on where you were buying in DFW. My parents bought a home in Dallas around 85. An average sized home with a large in the back yard. It certainly wasn’t going for a song and, even worse, interest rates at the time were in the mid teens. They would’t have been able to buy if the seller hadn’t helped with funding.

 
Comment by Johnnftworth
2006-11-13 22:30:48

Actually,that condition lasted into the early 90’s.
Housing in Ft Worth only became mildly more expensive at the turn of the century. Even now pretty nice DR Horton homes start at $75–80 per sq ft. Toll Bro McMansions are only $120–130 per sq ft.

 
 
Comment by veritas
2006-11-13 13:02:19

And here is wisdom:
‘If you miss a deal, there’s another one coming,” said Ed Massey, who came to the auction to bid on a house in Crowley. ‘The economy is down, and since it’s down, it’s a buyers’ market.’”

Best to wait another year to year and a half even if you are shopping now. It ain’t bad yet, but bad is coming.

 
Comment by ejamie
2006-11-13 13:23:01

“‘Down-payment assistance versus 100 percent loans — it’s the same thing, isn’t it?’ said Jim Gaines of the Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. ‘We have people being lent 100 percent, or more, of the home price. You’re upside-down the day you move in,’ he said.”

“‘Some of these programs, not intentionally, have the effect of putting people in a position to fail,’ Lacefield said.”

No way has this not been intentional!

Lax lending practices are targetted precisely at potential buyers who are willing to take on more and more debt load, when their financials do not justify it. And, these lax lending practices have only intensified in an increasingly risky market! In my opinion, these are just another form of usury practices by the lending industry.

Looser mortgage standards == increased FB casualties.

These causualities are just means to an end.

 
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