“Ever More Bargains Loom”
The Miami Herald. “Luxury high-rise developers who last year flooded the market with irrational exuberance have a quieter pitch these days: ‘Never mind.’ And those families who were in the way of the phantom behemoths? That’s really too bad. Several were pushed out last year from Bayfront Manor on Northeast 31st Street to make way for ICE2.”
“Now they’re gone and so, apparently, is ICE2. The number for the sales center listed on the website has been disconnected. ‘My understanding is that the projects are canceled,’ said broker Nate Cohen, who once was involved with the original project.”
“The fantasy of high living has given way to the unglamorous truth of life in a subtropical, hurricane-lashed coastal republic. Today, while developers shrug about a ‘normal downturn,’ addicts shoot it up in their failed projects.”
“Through it all, the city of Miami has sat perched like the Cheshire cat on the bay. What do they have to show for it? On the way to being a world-class city, Miami finds itself once again having to dip into reserves to balance the budget.”
“Commissioners just can’t help themselves. Last week, over neighbors’ objections, they voted 4 to 1 to approve plans for yet another paper giant on the bay.”
From Miami Today. “A broker in our pages last week blamed the media for the residential real estate slide. And a developer wrote to us that press warnings of a condo bust had killed the market here and driven him out of it. Folks, don’t shoot the messenger.”
“The press didn’t build tens of thousands of condos, then contract with speculators who now are stuck with units, or might never close. Unlike our developer friend, we never wrote to another newspaper that Miami’s condo bubble could never, ever burst, that prices would rise forever.”
“We aren’t the ones who told potential buyers that they could resell condos for 20% or 40% more in a year with only a down payment actually out of pocket. We aren’t the ones who are still building tower after condo tower, flooding the market with housing while Multiple Listings Service sales have fallen nearly a third and some smaller brokerages are shaky.”
“Seven columns in this space in 2+ years warned that more than 100,000 planned Miami-Dade condos were a full decade’s supply. If timely warnings helped slam brakes on a market that experts now admit was about 80% speculators and only 20% real residents, good.”
“The press would have been far more culpable if we’d seen a train wreck coming and hadn’t raised a warning signal.”
“In the end, of course, someone will occupy every new condo. But it turns out that the condos we’re still building at a record pace are going to be bargains as residences when purchased at proper prices. Meanwhile, the City of Miami and others keep on approving plans for still more massive high-rise condos. Which means that ever more bargains loom for buyers who plan to live and enjoy where they buy.”
From News 11 Alive in Georgia. “One couple got a $500,000 condo for $300,000. Just five minutes later, another man got the same model for just $278,000.”
“Hundreds of people showed up at the Sheraton Hotel in Buckhead to bid on condos at the View at Chastain. Right now there are 9,000 condos for sale in the city of Atlanta and plans in the works for 17,000 more.”
“While analysts say the burst of the housing bubble does not include Atlanta, when it comes to condos there is no denying there is a glut on the market. So why do investors keep building thousands more when the existing buildings aren’t even filled? They’re counting on more people from the suburbs to…choose urban living.”
The News and Observer from North Carolina. “Sales of new homes in the Triangle climbed only a fraction as fast in the third quarter as in 2005, and a sharp fall in building permits suggests further cooling in a housing market that has set records each of the past two years.”
“‘We’re definitely in a period of adjustment,’ said Bernard Helm, president of (the firm) which compiled the report.”
“‘They’re still selling their homes, just not as fast,’ said Hal Adams, division president for Bill Clark Homes. Bill Clark has lost two sales a month since August because potential buyers moving to the area have trouble selling their homes in other markets, Adams said. But because lot purchases haven’t declined, he expects the construction pace to pick up in mid-2007.”
The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “Doug Boone, owner of Boone Communities, said too much investment can be dangerous but that he hasn’t seen ‘runaway prices’ in the region. Boone, whose company sells empty housing lots to developers, has seen an influx of investment in the NoDa and Belmont neighborhoods, but mostly they are buying inexpensive fixer-uppers.”
“In his circles, he heard homeowners wondering aloud how high they could price their homes. They eventually had to lower expectations or take their homes off the market, he said.”
“‘The Market is rational,’ he said. ‘When you start to hear irrational statements, then the market’s about to turn.’”
The Gulf Breeze News. “‘New Orleans looked good,’ says Susan Moody, Montgomery Realtors. ‘The convention was huge and we received so much great information to better serve our clients. We are really seeing a pricedright market, and the volume of homes on the market offer more choices for our buying clients. The market will come back, and in the mean time the value of homes is still appreciating.’”
‘ In a workforce housing survey by Florida International University and the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce, six in 10 respondents indicated the rising cost of housing in Miami-Dade County has impacted their ability to recruit employees. And that’s just the start.’
‘The poll, conducted Sept. 4-30, found more than three-quarters of the 158 chamber member respondents have had to modify their recruitment methods to offset the increasingly high cost of housing in the county.’
We have the same situation here in CA. The UC system is struggling to recruit and retain talent. So they give huge perks and bonuses and then wonder why they have no money for staff. While many blame the regents for the decline of the UC system and rising costs, I blame the J6P CA homeowner. How many people made or planned to make a killing in overpriced residential real estate yet screamed bloody murder when they can no longer afford tuition for their kids?
It’s like the woman in the office next to me - one minute she’s bragging about how much her house is appraised at and in the next breath she’s complaining that the market is so overpriced that her children are moving away. No one seems to see the connection.
I work at UCLA and I’m seeing the same thing. Speaking of overpriced developments, they’re putting in a $750K - $950K “designer condo complex” in Silverlake, and there’s an interesting discussion of whether or not to buy going on over at Curbed LA. Here’s the link: http://la.curbed.com/archives/2006/11/kors_sunset_sil.php
and here’s what I posted. I think it basically applies to anybody buying anything, so I’m taking the liberty of re-posting it here:
Equivalent rents in that area, for a nice two bedroom, would be about $2K a month, right? And let’s see…the mortgage on $750K at 6% after factoring in a $150K downpayment (20%) — money which would otherwise have gone to your retirement, or your emergency fund (the one that’s supposed to contain a couple of months’ salary in case you lose your job or get sick) — would be about $3600 per month. Now factor in $250 a month in hoa dues, another $200 a month in property taxes…hmmm…We’re talking at least $4000 per month.
NOW add to this the fact that liquidity — the ability to sell your place quickly, if at all, for anything close to what you paid for it — is drying up much faster than prices. Sales have been going down for about a year now — last month they were down over 20% in LA County. Which means that, if you have to sell in the next couple of years (when even the NAR says prices will be flat to negative) it’ll take you at least six months. If you’re lucky.
Okay, so now you’ve got a $4000 nut to crack on a place you can no longer live in — you got a divorce, or changed jobs, or just had to move someplace else…and you can only rent it for (at most) $2500 to $3000 per month. Worse still, that emergency fund you were supposed to have for just such occasions went into your downpayment. And that HELOC that might bail you out? Don’t count on it — not only has your property just appraised for $100K less than you bought it for, but interest rates are now through the roof as lenders make up for the loose-credit sins of the past by tightening credit standards.
You’re screwed. Big time. That “equivalent rent” that everybody poo-pooed as not taking into account the “special magic happy premium” attached to the warm, cozy feeling of ownership actually serves a practical purpose — as a hedge against the possibility of needing to unload the place in a down market.
Oh, but you say you’ll NEVER have to move in less than five years or so, right? I mean, hip, young, rich people like you guys NEVER change jobs, or get divorces, or have to move for any reason at all…right?
Get a clue. And in case you start caling me a bitter renter…I’ve been owning in WeHo since 1999, paying less per month (inclusive of dues, taxes & insurance) than it would cost to rent out our place.
FOR GOOD REASON!!!!
This market is toast. Wait to buy again until the cost of ownership (minus that downpayment) is less than the cost of renting, as it has been for most of the past 50 years. Meanwhile, rent and count yourself lucky for not having bought into this ponzi scheme of a real estate market.
Gwynster it is refreshing that you see the connection as many of us on this blog do. So many people just don’t get how interconnected this whole economy is. People wonder why so many flee Clownifornia, as just one example. Well, could it be the high cost of living, coupled with housing costs and property tax on these overpriced homes? Throw in the whole illegal immigration factor and gee, I don’t know. See, people are gonna get it when this whole thing called the economy finally breaks, and the economy will eventually break. I have said it before and will say it again, you can’t keep running an economy on 67% consumption, esp. if that consumption is primarily driven by debt. Unfortunately, we are all in this together and few will escaped completely unscathed in some form or another.
By way of comparison, only 50% of Japan’s economy is driven by consumer spending.
For an inside look at the appraial business and what is driving these inflated numbers…check out the newest post I got up last night.
SoCalMtgGuy
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com/forum
SoCal — thanks. Nice to read actual examples of how it is out there, written by a working appraiser.
When you mention illigal immigration , they are calling you xenophob or racist, but quality of life is going down any way. You feel yoursel in thisrd world country even if you live in Beeverly Hills. You are driving on a freeway and … .
Soon there will be a lot of land sice some of sellers will move north to live in United States…
Let me guess, you want English to be the official language of the United States.
So what? Other countries have official languages, like Mexico, for example, has an official language of Spanish, despite the fact that many Mexicans don’t even speak Spanish, rather they speak an indigenous language. In Canada, Quebec has French as official language in that province and they strictly enforce it. And how! An official language promotes good communication, unity and holds down government expenses. Why shouldn’t the US have an official language like other countries?
The financial and political elites in India, China and Europe all speak English, and make certain their children speak it as well. As the middle class is decimated in the US, and the debtor serfs are relegated to the underclass,no one will much care what language they speak, as long as they can follow simple orders in basic English. The American political and financial elites will continue to be English only. Language has always been used to enforce class distinctions–see use of English vs hundred of indigenous tongues in India, or Mandarin vs other dialects in China, or Latin in medieval Europe.
To be honest , I prefer Italian, (even though I am not Italian). Who is craze to live here in ten years and who cares about English language? With those housing prices , you can sell your house and live near by Mediteranian sea happily in a small village with a great view…
Don’t worry gal, no one will accuse you of speaking English well.
Dear spike66, I’am not worry. English is not my native tang. English came to me with “The Beatles” and I moved to U.S. from Communist country as a refugee but it looks like it is time to move out as a “refugee” since this country will turn to ” communist” , because most of Latin America is “red” and in 20 years demography will work in their way.
“English is not my native tang.”
I for one hope English stays the official and unofficial language of the US. Not because I am racist or xenophobic but only because I am too stupid to learn another language. (Believe me I have tried.)
Hats off you to Gal - wish I could speak/write another language as well as you - maybe my exs would not have laughed so much at my attempts!
From News 11 Alive in Georgia. “One couple got a $500,000 condo for $300,000. Just five minutes later, another man got the same model for just $278,000.”
At that rate, condos will be free in… (300 minus 278 is 22 into 278 is about 13 or 14 times five is)… about another 67 minutes!
“In the end, of course, someone will occupy every new condo”
Truer words were never spoken..you just have to qualify who those occupees will be. Me thinks those drug users already there have some friends that may come over and occupy the vacancies…
I’m not sure every condo actually will end up occupied. Miami just end up looking like most of Malaysia, with half-built skeletons of hi-rises everywhere as a reminder of headier times.
PTB,
That occurred to me also.
In arrears.
Good Analogy. In the peak of those days Malaysia built the Worlds Tallest high rise building, a Twin Tower at that! It is still not fully occupied I think. The reason for building that was ofcourse fantasylike proejcted economic growth and equal amount of false pride.
Well, the chinese have more real growth and I think they are having a few underway which are taller. If US economy goes into recession, wonder if they will be fully occupied as well.
Or Pyongyang, North Korea, where a humungous, unfinished high-rise hotel dominates the city.
That gets my vote as the planet’s stupidest building. Apparantly North Koreans deny it exists.
Anyway, my point was that you hear a lot of people say, “once construction starts, you can’t stop”, but oh yes you can, and it ain’t pretty.
I’ve heard of that hotel - anyone got a picture? I think you can actually see it in online satellite photos, though I’m not sure if that’s it or not.
Google: ryugyong hotel
The four Ministries in Orwell’s 1984 were housed in large, imposing, stark pyramidal buildings. EXACTLY what this hotel looks like. I wonder whether anyone in the DPRK knows this.
It was never finished because they didn’t use any re-bar in the building, just solid concrete. Apparently the building sways and the elevator shafts aren’t straight. Its a telling story of how people delude themselves.
Josh
here are some pics of unfinished buildings in thailand
http://www.geocities.com/topsyturvy_6051/unco03.html
On the MLS there are a couple listed from $319k-$499k. These are touted as the ultimate in urban living.
The View @ Chastain is designed to pander to your most deep-seated desires for beauty, luxury, privacy and exclusivity. Everything about it has been planned to provide a permanent source of inspiration and indefinable truth that there’s no place like home.
This is from their site, sounds like pure excess.
The View at Chastain? Is that Brandi Chastain? What do you get to view, some chick tearing off her shirt and showing off her sports bra underneath?
Chastain is arguably the nicest park in Atlanta and has a golf course. Surrounding it is the most expensive zip code in all of Atlanta. But these condos were built between a strip center and a USPS facility. Up the road, there are similar loft projects that are a bit older that are much better built, that have resales more in line with what the auction prices were. They simply shot for the moon on pricing and were wrong.
actually, i knew that![;)](http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
Newspeak, from the Chastain report:
“It was not a distress sale, but a way to simply sell condos.”
Maybe next will be, “It was not a foreclosure in the traditional sense, but just a simpler method of parting ways.” A bit like, “Ta-ta! Sorry it didn’t work out!”
The View @ Chastain is designed to pander to your most deep-seated desires for beauty, luxury, privacy and exclusivity.
Someone posted the results from the auction the other day, but I didn’t find the no reserve part of the auction listed. Any idea what those sold for?
“Right now there are 9,000 condos for sale in the city of Atlanta and plans in the works for 17,000 more.”
I wonder what kind of research Atlanta developers did to back their claims that people within the MSA want to live downtown or midtown. Apart from Buckhead and northward, I was under the impression most families want to live outside of the 285 perimeter. The younger crowd may try it for a while but I don’t see the older conservative crowd buying in to downtown living. To the older crowd it’s anathema to their entire belief system to live within the city proper.
There are old neighborhoods towards the east of midtown that have a lot of families and older people and good shcools…but these are not condos…they are 1920s-40s homes…mostly nice.
That would be my kind of neighborhood. I like things built well, a nice mix of age groups, etc. Guess I’m just old fashioned.
Me too, Palmetto. An old, established neighborhood where people know, socialize with, and generally like their neighbors who they’ve known for years. It’s a vanishing thing in America.
Army -
You’ve mentioned this neighborhood twice on this blog today. Do you have a house you’re trying to flip in this area or something?
Oh,IMHO most of the builders permits were based on knowing that a good portion of the buyers would be speculators for these projects when the market was hot . The “market makers “,were targeting the speculators/greater fools who were in a frenzy to buy pre-construction based on the hoop-la .
Just pay a “Star” to endorse a project and it’s in the bag .
A poster here once told the tale on how they were marketing these projects .It was like a big circus in which every marketing con in the book was being used to get people to overpay . Half the time I think they had a bunch of shills at the sales centers making out like they were purchasers .
Regarding the condo projects that did get built ,we will see just how much end-user demand they really have and at what prices once people come to their senses .
I agree with you HW. The builders are spinning the story that retirees and suburbanites are moving intown to buy their condos. There’s no proof that retirees will actually want to live in the middle of the city. As a current resident here, I can’t see retirees living in Midtown or downtown. I think developers are trying to pass their risk on to unsuspecting speculators who expect people move here. What I’d like to know is what the actual owner-occupancy rate of condos is around here.
My guess 20% in some of those projects . A good ratio would be 80% owner occupied to 10 to 20% non-owner occupied IMHO .
My guess 20% in some of those projects . A good ratio would be 80% owner occupied to 10 to 20% non-owner occupied IMHO .
Not after all those IO loans reset.
Yea really ,it’s going to be ugly .
Just wait until some of those out of town investors get a load of Freak-nick.
To point out the obvious - it wasn’t a $500,000 condo, nor even a $300,000 condo. I like the guy who bought it for $300k, already got a bendover for $22k, or 7%, in 5 minutes. Man, talk about taking it fast and deep.
It’s possible that the better ones went first, which is usually what you would do. It’s also the case as the players bought one and dropped out, there were fewer bidders and hence lower prices. If they all were identical, including view, then the first buyer really got screwed. They may all have been screwed anyway.
The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “Doug Boone, owner of Boone Communities, said too much investment can be dangerous but that he hasn’t seen ‘runaway prices’ in the region. Boone, whose company sells empty housing lots to developers, has seen an influx of investment in the NoDa and Belmont neighborhoods, but mostly they are buying inexpensive fixer-uppers.”
I use to live in Charlotte; can some Charlatan tell me where the hell NoDa is? Is it near Fourth Ward? Up Graham Street or something?
Charlotte is a nice place to live, but it has a laughable inferiority complex. Hence the chamber of commerce’s insistence on calling downtown “uptown” and making up places such as “NoDa”.
LOL — “Charlatan” — is that what residents of Charlotte are really called?
Charlotteans, actually. Usually when I use “Charlatan” in that matter it’s self-referential.![:)](http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
NoDa - North of Davidson
I lived in Charlotte for 4 1/2 years. Beautiful, nice town, but the job market there is tough. Housing appreciates extremely s-lo-w-l-y there, which is a good thing.
I still may move back someday.
When you move to Georgia you also get to enjoy the local culture. Dirt eating.
http://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/nge/Article.jsp?id=h-2669
Well, that was interesting. Eew
Maybe Borat can look into this in his next movie.
Have you seen the movie? I hear it was funny. I have now got the phrase “sexy time” stuck in my head.
Borat’s an edgier version of the Dan Aykroyd/Steve Martin “Wild and Crazy Guys” from the old SNL episodes.
Reminds me of the Creomulsion my wife bought me last week when I needed cough syrup. I ’bout croaked when I read on the box, “Original 1920 flavor,” as I immediately imagined what medicine was supposed to taste like 100 years ago. Sure enough, the stuff smells like creosote because it has creosote in it. I suppose a side benefit is that termites won’t be bothering me. The plus side is that you make that cough disappear in a hurry.
Wrote a paper on Geophagy while in college in the early 70’s.
From Miami Today. “A broker in our pages last week blamed the media for the residential real estate slide. And a developer wrote to us that press warnings of a condo bust had killed the market here and driven him out of it. Folks, don’t shoot the messenger.”
Exactly why Ponzi schemes can’t be exposed to the light of day. They tend to disintegrate like vinyl dashboard of a Ford Maverick.
The dashboard of a Ford Maverick. That bought back some memories. My dad had one with the clutch on the steering column. And, yes, the dashboard was all spongy from the fake vinyl disintigrating.
Clutch on the steering column?
If Ponzi Schemes are exposed to the light of day they vaporize like a vampire exposed to the sun.
The Miami Herald columnist’s remark about unglamorous living in a subtropical, hurricane-lashed coastal republic describes Florida better than I ever could. The remainder of the column is just as good: “Sunday, The Miami Herald published a stunning series of photographs and a report that sadly detailed what happens when bad real estate happens to good people. It should be required reading for every city planner.”
It should be required reading for Tampa’s planners too, but I doubt that’s going to happen.
“…subtropical, hurricane-lashed coastal republic describes Florida better than I ever could.”
i was thinking the exact same thing. when people refer to south Florida’s climate as warm, i want to tell them about Alaska’s cool climate.
Oh, the Herald was being charitable. They left out stuff like:
* no one speaks English
* large parts of the economy are illegal or sleazy
* large “transient” population (tourists, 2d homeowners, flippers, newcomers who aren’t tied to the place)
World-class my arse. The US has like five or six world-class cities, and Miami ain’t one of them.
Would you buy “third-world class” ?
Well of course I wouldn’t *buy* literally, but I like the ring to it.
Yes “third-world class” is right. In addition to all the other things I have discovered about Miami-Dade (winning such coveted titles as the rudest city in the U.S., highest child-poverty rate in the U.S., worst drivers, etc.), I found it amusing this past week-end that Miami is the largest city in the U.S. that can’t get a five-star rating on any of it’s luxury hotel (including the three Ritz-Carlton’s, Biltmore, etc.). All because of the service. The people her are so ingrained to be rude, that it seems they just can’t get workers in the service industry to be nice and treat you properly, even when you are paying out your asrse at the best hotels.
Somtimes you can use their rudeness/irresponsiveness to your advantage.
I stayed at a 4-star hotel in South Beach last year. I had a Sunday checkout and asked the front desk if I could check out an hour or two late. They said no, due to “high occupancy levels” or somesuch they couldn’t give it to me. Never mind that in South beach on a Sunday there are going to be a LOT more people checking out than checking in (and some with early flights back to NY, etc).
I ignored this and went down at 2 or 3pm to check out. I had to wait behind five or six other people also checking out… and when they got to me they didn’t say a word about staying late.
NYC, San Fran, Chicago, Boston, Washington, Seattle
That’s about it, although I’d put Philly ahead of Seattle. Seattle is Denver with worse politix and crappier weather.
I’d put places like Cincy and Pittsburgh ahead of Miami.
You all nailed the description of the Miami / South Broward area perfectly. I made the bad decision to come here for a few years for my job. I have recently submitted my resignation and will quit a year early just to get out of here as fast as possible. It may be an ok place to visit, but it sucks to live here. My current dilema is the security deposit I paid on the rental house I am in. Though the house is in BETTER condition since we have been renting it, I KNOW the owner will try to rip us off an not give us a dime back. Our neighbor’s who love us (the owner is a real nut job) have also warned us that there is no way the owner will give us a dime. It is a fairly large security deposit, equal to 2 months rent. I was a little naive, but needed a home quick at the time I signed the contract. At the time the realtor told me the deposit was for first, last, and security and here in South Florida the funds had to be paid in advance of signing the contract (every service here operates on the philosphy that everyone is ripping everyone else off). The realtor wouldn’t even take a check…I had to wire the funds from my non-local bank. I looked at the contract the other day and to my horror, my payment of “last months rent” wasn’t in it…rather the money was for security deposit, AND “additional” security deposit. Our first year lease expired last summer and we are now month to month. The owner has complete controI and doesn’t even have to indicate for 15 days after you leave what they will give you back. Since I am getting the hell out of this state as fast as possible, it would be real hard for me to come back and try to sue the Landlord for my deposit. Any ideas? I am carefully reviewing the Florida Landlord / Tenant statues. I have found several that she is in violation of…but unfortunately none help the tenant in regard to security deposits. My neighbor (who also owns several rentals) just said to simply not pay the last two months rent…he said that’s what all his tennats do! I’d rather do something a little more ethical, but also do not want her to rip me off. This part of renting bites.
Ask for, no DEMAND, a walk-through before handing over the keys. If she brings up any damage/ maintenance issues, offer to fix it yourself. Painting should be normal wear and tear, arguably carpeting is too if it’s old.
Throrughly review any laws about the landlord being required to give to an itemized list of damages with a reasonable repair cost, and within a certain period of time. (For example, In Chicago a LL MUST present a bill FIRST, within 30 days, otherwise your ENTIRE deposit MUST be returned, with interest.)
If you have a relative or good friend in the area, give that address to your LL, rather than something out of state. LLs will be less likely to screw tenants if they think they’re not moving away and thus can’t go to court.
I’m kind of in a similar predicament in miami. The landlord tennat laws state that the landlord is required to give you a statement indicating where your security deposit is being held and if any interest will be paid. The law also says they have thirty days, after you provide written notification of vacating the premisis, to inform you of any damages to be deduced from
your security deposit. If they don’t provide the damage report
within 30 days, they have to return your deposit in full. Also, they are liable for your legal costs to recover your deposit if they don’t return it. You can probably place a lien on the house I’m sure.
I was in a similar situation in Pittsburgh. We needed to leave 1 month before our lease was up and knew we would never get our deposit back. We never heard any complaining from the landlord about this, I think it is pretty standard.
I’ll take Spanish-speaking Miami over any redneck area in the fly-over States. But then again I grew up in Miami and I do speak Spanish.
This is supposed to be a housing bubble blog - write up the racist stuff on the Stormfront website or whatever its called.
Nobody who uses the word “redneck” in the manner you did has any credibility calling someone else racist.
Posted ” Nobody who uses the word “redneck” in the manner you did has any credibility calling someone else racist.”
That is true. Do not discount, this part of the Americian Nation. It is real.
Sounds like you are a politically correct person. Quit your ” racist whining” stuff and get over it. English is the language of the USA. Dont like it? There are tons of places in the world where you may be happy.
Miami on world standards is laim, but compared to 98% of the U.S. it is atleast not a meaningless hell. (trust me this isn’t a compliment to Miami, 5 world class cities, try one and a half, NY and Miami,
I was in Miami earlier this year on business. While it may be politically incorrect to say this, the Cubans down there are the most rude SOBs I’ve ever encountered. Aside from their congenital inability to follow simple traffic regulations or courtesies, almost without exception they are surly, obnoxious people. I went out to dinner a couple of times with a friend of mine, who’s Portuguese, and the waitresses, after realizing he wasn’t Cuban, would always comment on how nice it to wait on people who “weren’t from here” because “you have manners.” Plus the Third World corruption and sleaze down there permeates every layer of society. I’ll never understand what Europeans see in the place or why on earth people paid such ridiculous amounts of money to live there.
Sammy get use to it…. more too come!
sammy, did you stay in little havana?
ICE2. Another monument to all these “luxury home” end users who don’t really exist. It seems like 5-10 of these houses are being built nationwide for every person who might actually be a purchaser and user of it. At the other end, the middle and lower middle classes get McShitboxes built out of toothpicks with drywall stapled to the walls and pay $300K for the privilege.
It’s truly a pathetic situation.
Mud and sticks baby, that’s what housing is all about. Add some granite and stainless steel in the kitchen, throw in a nice porcelain bathing trough and waste bowl and you got yourself a house!
txchick57,
True. It’s not that they “never” existed or don’t in fact exist at all it’s just that every developer w/access to bubble bucks sold the lender some self flattering BS that ALL of them will come here!
Any time we’re subjected to some realt-whore’s “newsletter” mentality their local market’s prospects are always couched as if everyone will be coming THERE! Be it Tucson, Las Vegas, Duluth whatever! Duluth? How’d that get in there?
I spent a day in Duluth many years ago about 3 days before Christmas.
I don’t believe I ever saw the ground the whole day I was there. It was like being in a cotton ball.
Arizona Slim checking in from Tucson. To hear it from the local media and government, everyone STILL wants to come here. Yes-indeedy they do.
There are 30 million people in california and a lot of them are fed up and want affordable housing. I think there will be demand for housing in arizona for some time.
Why will there still be demand? If i want to be overcharged for a house and live with 110+ temps all summer, I’ll move to IE or the central valley.
Drywall STAPLED to walls? That installation method sure is a new one on me. I was taught to install each and every piece with a screwgun.
“…a developer wrote to us that press warnings of a condo bust had killed the market here and driven him out of it.”
It’s nice to make one ridiculous claim after another and have them go unchallenged. However, the minute someone injects a hint of critical thinking into the mix, your problems are their fault b/c they exposed your fallacious logic.
“It’s nice to make one ridiculous claim after another and have them go unchallenged. However, the minute someone injects a hint of critical thinking into the mix, your problems are their fault b/c they exposed your fallacious logic.”
I’ve seen that happen right here on this blog!
Man, FL looks like a train wreck in the making. The failed projects can be blamed on no one but the developer. You see Alan Greenspan, this is what happens when you dump money from the sky. People begin to disregard reality and risk, making loads of money for a few and then leaving a huge mess for everyone to deal with. Now it looks like Atlanta wants to copy their neighbor to the south. 17,000 condos planned? WTF is going through these people’s minds? Personally, I can see alot of benefits to urban living, but at least I am rational enough to realize that my opinion is not the majority. People still want a yard. They don’t want traffic noise and homeless people. Atlanta is not NYC. Plenty of suburb land. I see many, many, many more failed projects in the future.
Atlanta and Dallas have the same “vision” and same destiny.
At least Atlanta is within driving distance of desireable areas.
I used to call Atlanta the LA of the east, but it’s worse than that. Atl has all of LA’s bad things and none of its good things.
“I used to call Atlanta the LA of the east, but it’s worse than that. Atl has all of LA’s bad things and none of its good things”
Good things??? Can’t remember any.
At least Atlanta is within driving distance of desireable areas.
Yes, these desirable areas are like islands in the Pacific Ocean. I live on an island here, and work 25 miles out in the Pacific.
“While analysts say the burst of the housing bubble does not include Atlanta, when it comes to condos there is no denying there is a glut on the market. So why do investors keep building thousands more when the existing buildings aren’t even filled? They’re counting on more people from the suburbs to…choose urban living.”
There is a condo glut here and these will have to be sold cheaper than they are, that’s for sure. More people will choose urban living, but their timing is off. Gasoline price and availability as well as McMansion heating and AC bills in the future will eventually make these condos very attractive relative to living 20 miles out in 5000 sf of space for 2 people.
…analysts say the burst of the housing bubble does not include Atlanta…
It’s different there![:-)](http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
Army,
Are you in Atlanta? If so, what’s the word on the street about this auction?
Don’t know…I don’t pay attention to the condo situation…there are too many and they cost more than great old 1930s homes that are larger (2000sf-3500sf) with 1/4 acre lots and better schools.
Ben,
Here’s some comments I posted on another subject. All in all, 33 condos sold. Here is the link to the condo:
http://www.the-view.net/
Witnessed one of the first major Atlanta condo auctions on the web last night. 58 units up for bid, 15+ selling absolute. 11 story, 125 unit condo building, luxury lofts in fashionable Buckhead. Auctioneer provided web-bidding option with streaming video so that I could watch from the comfort of my nice rented apartment.
6 top units (1700 sf, two bed+, two story loft, 2 balconies, top end kitchen - beautiful) advertised price $380k-$499K went for $308K, $300K, $300K, $288K, $279K, $261K plus 10% auction fee).
Smaller one bedrooms (1,215 sf + balcony) advertised from $289K-$339K went for $204K, $195K, $189K, $160K, $160K plus the 10%.
Another 10+ units were sold without reserve. The other units had reserves which apparently weren’t met so they never went to auction.
That is getting closer to what they might be worth…I guess, assuming its an honest auction, it is what they are worth for now. They’ll probably go lower before they stabilize as supply in the pipeline is too large.
The triangle in NC is a very nice area. Great to see that even though prices are still somewhat cheap in many places, their sales are still falling. Nice to know that no matter how ridiculous California, NY, and Boston get, there will still be nice, affordable places in the country for people who aren’t brainwashed into thinking NYC is the best place on the planet.
“The market will come back, and in the mean time the value of homes is still appreciating.” tee hee What a novel concept. While the market is dead, the value of homes is still appreciating. Then, when the market comes back, the new market automatically recognizes the appreciation that was booked while the market was dead. Yes, this might happen if the market is Rip Van Winkle and the nap is 20 years long.
On New Orleans: “The market will come back, and in the mean time the value of homes is still appreciating.”
Either the market is appreciating or the market will come back. Can’t have it both ways, Ms. Moody. (And of course there’s the third option: The market is neither appreciating nor coming back.)
I think this lady is from Florida, but the article wasn’t clear. She was at the NAR conference in NO.
You’re right. Sorry. Google suggests Pensacola.
Yes , the real estate people need all these conventions to get brainwashed . They got to get the latest sales pitch to make those sales , never mind value for the dollar in housing or buyers really qualifying for a loan .The real estate industry all talk the same marketing talk .
It’s clear that the real estate industry is pushing for inflation with lower rates to get the housing market going . It’s not easy to sell a house if a buyer doesn’t have a urgency feeling or they are afraid of catching a falling knife ,or they see to much inventory out there .
The” buy now or you will be priced out forever” has been replaced with “buy now its a good time to buy because there are alot of choices and the market will go up in 2007 “.
A normal buyer would not be interested in buying unless they thought the prices were at least stable . Nobody can really give any real assurance that prices are stable at this point .
Gulf Breeze is a small 100% wealthy WASP village that sits on a peninsula in between the city of Pensacola and Pensacola Beach. Pensacola is seperated from Gulf Breeze by Escambia Bay and in turn Gulf Breeze is seperated from Pensacola Beach by the Intercoastal.
Speed trap city when you come off of three mile bridge from Pensacola into Gulf Breeze. Do not speed in Gulf Breeze as the town is famous for ticketing out of towners!
“Honey, look, we got a deal, we saved 200k. That is 200k in free equity” *Cheers*
“Honey, omg 278k? They can’t sell it for that much, they just killed our equity, now we are 22k in the hole. Way to go dipsh*t.”
I will repeat, “DO NOT CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!”
Probably on a different floor. Same model on the 4th floor overlooking retail buildings or up on the 12th where you look at a golf course. The 22K premium MAY be justified.
Or maybe the cheaper condo has a better view, but they were just better negotiators.
To be fair, they were in different parts of the building with higher, city-facing views going first. The auction was facilitated such that you simply bid a price and if you won you got your pick, Then, onto the next auction with one less unit available.
Sounds like the Realtors (TM) from the Breeze went to N.O. and drank all the NAR punch they could get. Knowing the area I am sure many thought it was a “revival”. I can hear them clapping and shouting, “Prices will go up in the Spring. Glory to brother Dave.”
The article helps explain the $100,000 price increase I recently noticed on a Gulf Breeze house which has been on the market for more than a year. That’s right, if it doesn’t sell for $1,037,000 raise it to $1,179,000. You have to price it right to get the GF with a bag of money and a box of stupid!
That’s a potential fraud deal if you see them raising the price in this market on a long term listing that didn’t sell at the lower price .
Wiz — good tip. It was common to see price rises during the boom, but now it makes sense that this could be a set-up for a phony appraisal, phony loan and big check from seller to buyer under the table at closing. So, look for a full-price contract. Wish there were a bounty for exposing the rotten ones.
Good appraisers can see current listings ,can see current comps etc. , but if you got a area where there hasn’t been a sale for a while or since the 2005 peak than more homework is required on the questionable sale .
They also need spot checkers on appraisers ,to see if the data is even correct that they are putting on the appraisal .
Usually a crook appraiser is in on the deal ,but sometimes not.
Really , in this market a one month sale is out of date with the way things are changing .
The October number for San Diego trustee’s deeds is just in at
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html
Trustee’s deeds are foreclosures ending badly (not all do).
This is the true measure of how bad things are.
At the rate the numbers are rising, we’re going to hit the ’96 record by spring.
‘90 Mo. Average 90
’91 Mo. Average 176
‘92 Mo. Average 319
‘93 Mo. Average 426
‘94 Mo. Average 445
‘95 Mo. Average 439
‘96 Mo. Average 500
‘97 Mo. Average 428
‘98 Mo. Average 279
‘99 Mo. Average 166
‘00 Mo. Average 115
‘01 Mo. Average 69
‘02 Mo. Average 76
‘03 Mo. Average 47
‘04 Mo. Average 46
Jan-05 41
Feb 12
Mar 28
Apr 25
May 41
Jun 61
Jul 28
Aug 68
Sep 67
Oct 52
Nov 68
Dec 68
Jan-06 62
Feb 73
Mar 106
Apr 114
May 134
Jun 158
Jul 190
Aug 174
Sep 197
Oct 251
OB tom - thanks for putting that information together. What it re-confirms to me is that this bubble is going to take a LONG time to unwind. Looks like it took about 6 years for foreclosures to peak curing the last cycle. However, the last cycle wasn’t as saturated with toxic loans as this cycle is, so maybe this cycle will have some additional downward momentum to speed things up.
Wow, 2005 and 2006 fit an exponential curve.
Using excel (where you can use a date as a number)
y = 7.45963E-60e3.63071E-03x
R2 = 8.58631E-01
I calculate 500/month for May 2007. It took 5 years of downturn to get there last time. Unfortunately, I’m certain we’ll break 1000/month before this is over.
Neil
I’m reminded of the scene in Kevin Costner movie “Water World” when the little girl asks Dennis Hopper “So this is your great vision?” as he watches his world explode into flames.
I note the author of the Miami Herald article believes the city planners are responsible for determining the level of demand and issuing approvals accordingly. Not so.
“…believes the city planners are responsible for determining the level of demand and issuing approvals accordingly.”
Maybe the words got scrambled and were intended to be, “…the city planners believe they are responsible for determining the level of demand and issuing approvals accordingly.”
LOL, can you believe how many people were sleeping on the job for you know what $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
I can understand condos in places like San Francisco and San Diego where land is limited, but the development of condos in markets like Atlanta and my own town of Kansas City is puzzling.
For the last three decades in KC, condos existed in only two locations: Crown Center/downtown (25th st.) and two miles away at the elite, historic shopping district of the Country Club Plaza (47th st).
Now condos are sprouting at 107th st. (Mission Farms) and 115th st. (Park Place). Why would anyone pay a premium to have neighbors even closer than they are in the tightly-spaced new SFH developments? Even the deluded and/or lying realtors never say everyone wants to live in Kansas City, and I suspect the same would be true of Atlanta.
http://www.missionfarmscondos.com/
http://destinationparkplace.com/
Traffic coming into the employment centers of Buckhead and Midtown and Downtown is horrible…that would be an argument for a condo if you don’t have the money or need for a house in the nice intown areas (which are fairly expensive….not CA expensive, but well over area median).
This is Atlanta, sorry.
I also believe there will be a time in the future, perhaps 2010-2015 timeframe, where demand for this type of housing will rise due to increasing energy prices and perhaps even rationing of gasoline. The buyer of the 5000 sf McMansion 20 miles out is more screwed than they buyer of one of these condos in the long run.
Ben:
I take issue with the title of this thread: “Ever More Bargains Loom”.
Don’t you know it lacks pizazz? Next time call the thread “Maserati”, and I’m sure you’ll get a lot more interest….
Realtor-speak is fascinating. The buzz word these days seems to be “pop” as in: “That color makes this bathroom pop.” Decades ago it was “sizzle” as in: “Attractive switchplates are the sizzle on the steak.”
I see the term “stunning” used a lot to describe property that is downright ordinary.
“Prudence would suggest holding off on new building approvals at least until Miami 21, the city’s new development plan, is unveiled. But commissioners just can’t help themselves. Last week, over neighbors’ objections, they voted 4 to 1 to approve plans for yet another paper giant on the bay.”
As I said, the author argues that the city should delay approvals because there is a glut of units on the market. That isn’t the city’s job.
If it’s not the City’s job to manage the growth of the city, whose job is it?
It is the city’s job to determine the urban planning. But the rate of growth is supposed to be left up to the market.
To me, urban planning includes ‘How many condo high rises do we want in a particular area?’ If the answer isn’t unlimited, then they have to put a halt on the green lighting of new projects. Developers could care less what happens to a city as they add more and more condos. It’s their job to build and they only get paid when they do that. It’s a city planners job to actually ‘plan’ how the city should grow.