Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Auctions? New statistics? The Lowell Sun. “Several real estate experts have been quick to say that the current housing slump is nothing compared to that of the early 1990s. But in at least one sense, it is. A total of 12,945 foreclosures were initiated in Massachusetts through Sept. 30. At the current pace, that would result in a full-year total of 17,307 — a couple hundred higher than the all-time state high set in 1991.”
The Washington Post. “Offers to purchase homes can include all sorts of requirements for things that must happen for the deal to go through, known as contingency clauses. For sellers, the most troublesome is the home-sale contingency, in which the purchase depends on the buyers in turn finding buyers for their own home.”
“Such clauses were rare during the real estate boom of recent years. However, as the market has slowed, they have begun to reappear. ‘Here they wanted to string my seller out for basically four months, and then there’d be no guarantee that come February there would even be a closing,’ said agent Jane Fairweather (in) Bethesda. ‘What they were telling the sellers was that they didn’t want any risk in this deal.’”
From New Zealand. “Signs of uncertainty are creeping in to the local residential property market as the monthly median selling price suddenly slipped, soon after reaching peak levels.”
“After hitting a record $370,000 in September, the median plunged $25,000 to $345,000 last month in Tauranga, and the volume of sales, in what is supposed to be the busiest time of the year, dipped to 151, from 165. ‘It’s hard to gauge what people are thinking - there is very little action in beachfront properties,’ said Max Martin, Harcourts franchise owner.”
The Houston Chronicle. “‘We’re building too many homes in Houston,’ said Smith. ‘Builders in Houston have come to believe that Houston is cushioned and immune from the housing weaknesses nationwide,’ he said. ‘We’re starting to build up excess supply,’ said Smith, who grew to prominence in 1985 when he predicted the dramatic fall in real estate prices at a time when developers were enjoying a great market.”
i am seeing activity - surprisingly - even though sales are tanking. lots of *higher* priced homes selling…this in Hartford/NewHaven corridor
Ha. A hotel that condo’ed itself in ‘05 and had one of those waiting-in-line-overnight type lotteries is now undergoing some serious rot repairs. The entire stucco exterior is being stripped and it doesn’t look pretty underneath.
Looks like they new what they were in for and got the new bagholders to pay for it.
Anaheim Hills, CA 92807: Low to mid $800’s in my neighborhood,
1-No traffic,
1- Sold, Don’t know the price yet,
1 - lowering the price to the $690’s (hearsay)
This is cool
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/04/reckoning-odds-of-recession.html
Here’s a wonderful story, from the OC. Some may wonder how liberal the use of refis has been recently. The marginally regulated mortgage industry suggests that they are able to regulate themselves and relying on borrowers’ better judgement is the best approach to managing the lending industry. Well…
How about 9 Trust Deeds on a single 900sqft PoS totaling ~$900K all in the span of 8 months? Sound unbelievable? From NoD…
ADDRESS: 865? Lullaby Ln Stanton 90680 TG: 798-A HOEX: Y
TRUSTOR: Maria M. #####
OWNER: Same
BENEFRY: Cal Western Recon. 619 590-9200 TAX VALUE: 326043 TX YR 4
PRCH DATE: 5/2/03
DEF AMOUNT: 385,417
1st: * 368,000 4/7/05
2nd 92,000 4/7/05
3rd: 30,000 5/19/05
4th: 65,000 6/15/05
5th: 42,500 7/25/05
6th: 49,900 10/5/05
USE: R
SQFT: 968 YRBLT: 56
ROOMS: 6-3-1.0 STORY:
LOT: 7,196
LEGAL: N Tr 2654 Lot 45
APN: 126-372-21
NOD: 06-732786
LOAN #: 3114
TD ID#: 05-260424
REMARKS: 7th 25,000 12-19-05 8th 125,000 12-20-05 9th 50,000
02-03-06
ASOF: 10/26/06
SINCE: 9/8/06
TRUST DEEDS
AMOUNT DATE
Wonder how much of this bag the various government employees retirement funds are holding? No worries, here in CA we’ll just float more bonds to cover the deficiency. Bond’s are easy to pass here since those on the plublic dole have reached critical mass.
Bond’s s/b Bonds
Truth is often stranger than fiction. As the details of these horrific stories get played and replayed on the 6P news and in USAToday day in and day out you can bet your A$$ an ill-conceived FB bail-out program will be hatched in DC. Guaranteed.
WOW! That’s just awesome. Your home home as ATM with OVERDRAFT PROTECTION. So kewl — very SoCal, dude.
Maybe someone should translate this into Chinese and Japanese, e-mail to the respective central bank governors in Peking and Tokyo, and inquire whether they have any f*#king clue whatsoever about what’s in that half-trillion+ dollar portfolio of GSE toilet paper they’ve amassed.
If this was some lone isolated case it wouldn’t be any indication of how upside-down and hyper-leveraged the RE market is. The truth of the matter is there are more examples than you could even imagine. Just look for yourself. There are 6 lines for TDs in this report. Many are right up there and some they need to add the extras in the notes. I guess it’s time to re-work the report format, to adjust to the new market realities… the New Paradigm in lending…
Another one. There a cool $1M in 4th position. Think in a wipe-out the 4th in line stands a chance? How about 5th & 6th? Short sale negotiations probably won’t get started on this one…
ADDRESS: 33??? Holtz Hill Dr Dana Point 92629 TG: HOEX: Y
TRUSTOR: Deirdre #######
OWNER: Same
BENEFRY: Executive Trustee 818 837-2300 TAX VALUE: 962643 TX YR 98
PRCH DATE: 11/30/97
DEF AMOUNT: 29,211
1st: 872,000 5/28/03
2nd 999,999 4/1/04
3rd: 260,000 4/1/04
4th: * 1,000,000 5/28/04
5th: 445,000 3/15/05
6th: 150,000 5/16/06
USE: R
SQFT: YRBLT: 0
ROOMS: STORY:
LOT:
LEGAL: Tract No 14102 Lot 3 And Tract No 10718 Lot C P
APN: 682-221-61
NOD: 06-691753
LOAN #: 0359105442
TD ID#: 04-486319
REMARKS:
ASOF: 10/12/06
SINCE: 7/1/06
TRUST DEEDS
AMOUNT DATE
List Date: 10/30/06
How do you solve a problem like Maria? (For those who don’t know the reference, it’s a line from a song in The Sound of Music).
Pensacola, Florida
I have been monitoring a house in P’cola for almost a year which was brought to my attention by a relative who lives on the same street as the property.
The house is located at 4075 Gaugin Road, Pensacola, Florida 32504 which is a non pretentious middle class neighborhood in a convenient area of the city. The house is 1,764 sq. ft., 3/2, brick on frame on 0.31 with a pool and a garage built in 1972. The seller purchased the house in 1994 for $74,900.
The property was put up for sale in early 2006 for $250,000 and has had substantial markdowns every two months or so. Mid summer the list price was $205,000. Per review of the MLS this morning the list price is $155,000 or $88 per square foot!!
The seller is not only a FB but also a “Tweener” in an environment of increasing property taxes and insurance rates as I discovered he bought a larger house in another area of the city in March of 2006 for $255,000.
This is getting interesting so I did a search at Foreclosure.com and what do you think came up? Bingo! The house at 4075 Gaugin is in preforeclosure with a filing date of 9/26/06!!!
The list price is still very high (I think it should be $55 to $65 per sq. foot) however discovering a real life example of a typical HBB thread is interesting.
Below find links to the MLS listing, foreclosure.com, and the property appraiser for confirmation.
Listing
http://tinyurl.com/y6obuw
Foreclosure
http://tinyurl.com/te8c9
Property Tax Appraiser
http://tinyurl.com/sappg
http://tinyurl.com/uhnw2
That’s actually not bad, depending on the neighborhood. Horrendous decor but that can be fixed. Maybe $120 or so?
Agreed. Kitchen too small and wallpaper needs to go.
txchicK57 -
I have been using the same technique to identify potential homes for my husband and I to buy. Would you agree that using the property tax appraisal for determining if the asking prices is too high? If so, the areas that we are looking at have a long long way to drop in Atlanta.
Excellent work Popper. I’m going to copy your research technique.
Thanks.
Great research — reveals the gap between today’s reality and lagging REIC/gubbermint stats.
Excellent work! I just moved to Tampa Bay last year from Pensacola; I grew up there. FYI, I relentlessly check the residential and land inventory counts on PensacolaMLS.com. What’s interesting is that residential inventory is floating at around 6800 listings, down from a peak of 7100 a couple months ago while land inventory is floating upward to 2900 from 2800 during the same time. The decrease in residential listings is probably due to seasonal swings in the market, but I’m certain the inventory will puff up again by spring.
P’Cola Popper, I live in the Pensacola area as well. Moved back here in 2003 from Atlanta where we sold during a buyer’s market there and bought here during a seller’s market. That’s life. Luckily, we bought here before things went totally crazy.
The research you’ve done on the property at 4075 Gaugin Road is interesting. As you know, that area is touted as a highly desirable area due to the location. It’s amazing how much can change in a year.
I sent the following email to our realtor and she agreed with my observations.
—
Hi Betty,
We were wondering what your thoughts were concerning the local real estate market? It seems to us that even though there is a large supply of inventory, many sellers are still pricing their properties way too high. However, more and more listings are showing “Just Reduced” or “Motivated Seller”. Do you think most sellers are still being unrealistic in their asking prices? It appears to us that there is a standoff between buyers and sellers and neither side will budge. One writer on a website expressed it this way: “Sellers still think it is 2005, and buyers think it is 1929″.
Here is what we think is happening:
Since so many people bought homes for the first time in the past few years, there aren’t as many first time buyers as in the recent past.
Buyers who purchased in the last few years are having a difficult time selling their home and still make a profit. Also, they can’t buy another home unless they can sell their existing home.
Many households are drowning in debt and are upside down regarding their home. Their mortgage and personal debt exceeds their equity.
Many potential buyers are standing on the sidelines hoping they can buy in at the “bottom”. Also, many potential buyers are hesitant to buy because they’re concerned they may not be able to sell later at a profit.
Mortgage lenders are starting to tighten up the loan qualification requirements. Also, as you know, interest rates have risen slightly (but not that much).
Many recent loans were ARM and will eventually reset to a higher rate, thus making it more difficult for people to make the higher payments.
Many investors are trying to unload their properties now, thus adding to the increased inventory.
Based on the estimated number of households in the area, and the number of homes for sale, there is approximately one property for sale for every 13 households. We based this on Year 2000 Census data adjusted for population growth and the approximate number of homes for sale (less an estimate for pending sales). Of course, don’t hang your hat on these numbers, we may have miscalculated.
Anyway, we were just curious what your thoughts and observations were based on your experiences inside the industry?
Here in South OC, lots of 1 Million + homes are languishing, but am seeing motivated ones that lower prices to low 900’s now moving.
Am hearing alot of realtor speak telling buyers they need to buy now because selling realtors are telling their clients to take homes off for Spring selling season and the plan is to take off the market now and relist at higher prices (again). Guess they are looking for the GF again.
Also saw two homes prices dropped from 1 MM down to 900K in Rancho Santa Margarita and found out they are pre-foreclosures. Just found another one online today as well.
Is that in Coto De Caza or Dove Canyon? I would be interested in that area if I ever move back to RSM or south OC, maybe in the next two or three years when RTC is selling for 20 cents on the dollar.
I imagine that RSm and Aliso Viejo, etc. is ground zero for the OC implosion. What say you OCDan?
Dove and Wagon Wheel area.
“Am hearing alot of realtor speak telling buyers they need to buy now because selling realtors are telling their clients to take homes off for Spring selling season and the plan is to take off the market now and relist at higher prices (again). Guess they are looking for the GF again. “
The only way this could even hope to work is if there were a total blackout of sales from now until March 2007. What happens when one or two homes sell, (in the interim), and set the comps lower? How are the realtors going to justify the higher asking prices in Spring 2007?
Is the REIC losing its collective mind?
Isn’t this taking the homes off the market and relisting in Spring (at higher prices?!?) exactly what was tried in ‘05-’06? If you don’t want to list during the holidays/winter (somewhat understandable) you must put your house on the market at LOWER prices to have any chance in ‘07. The lower and earlier the better. Anybody who doesn’t get with the program is going to be chasing the market down a lot harder in ‘07 than ‘06 if they want to get back in the selling game.
Also note that Y-O-Y comparisons could get much worse in the late winter and early Spring as the closing sales price peak has only just been reached. Thus, ANY declines will cause Y-O-Y declines to increase right though the late summer - hard for MSM to hide when the numbers will be slapping them in the face, trout-like.
This is going to be a fun spring. And an even more fun late summer once everyone realizes all their crap isn’t getting sold.
July/August 07. That’s when the real carnage will begin.
I think you really have to consider the source on that hearsay. Those price increases are timed in line with when the bulk of resets begin to hit in earnest. The REIC is full of dummies basically. They seem to not understand certain economic realities.
Yesterday stopped in at Coldwell Banker in Hobe Sound, really to reconnect with an old friend whose husband is a Realtor TM there. He kindly showed me a $950,000 offering … very nice w/ deep water frontage, but along with the half-dozen for sale in The Soundings community, there was one for rent for $2200/month. Ha ha. Who the hell would then pay more than $350K for the property. Maybe less.
But hey, rents are going up! I know because everyone is saying so!
Everyone keeps saying that rents are going up but my landlord just lowered my rent by 13.5%
I have even less reason to buy now.
depends on where you live. in NY, rents are skyrocketing and vacancy rates are a mere 0.5%. NYC also just set a record low for enemployment…
Pensacola, Florida
RE coverage by the local Pensacola News Journal (PNJ) has been zero for almost a month outside of the Florida insurance fiasco. The PNJ is owned by Gannet and being the paranoid that I am was wondering if anybody else out there has noticed a drop off in RE coverage by their local papers (Gannet owned) over the last month or so?
Per Milly Burleson, a Pensacola Realtor, taken from Realty Times:
During October, 2006, 474 homes were sold in Pensacola and the outlying areas. The average Days on the Market was 132 days. The average sales price was $180,435. Homes sold for an average of 95.2% of the listed price.There are currently 6605 homes for sale in the Pensacola area. Based on October sales the Pensacola area has approximately 14 months of inventory.
Recently the ‘it’s a good time to buy committee’ [real name not a joke] launched an all out ad blitz in the Jacksonville market. Most of you have already seen the web component but for those who have not: http://www.jaxhomefacts.com/
In addition, the local Housing Finance Authority together with local lenders launched a new buying incentive program targeted to first time homebuyers. The “program offers a rate of 5.6 percent for the first 80 percent of the purchase price of a home and 1 percent to 3 percent rate for the remaining 20 percent…” and eliminates the need for PMI: http://tinyurl.com/ymdv7u
As a result of these campaigns and after several weeks of lowered prices in several subdivision around Jacksonville, Dr Horton raised home prices approx. 20 to 30K while maintaining their faux discounting campaign: http://tinyurl.com/qjlxd
There you have it folks, the perfect exploitive promote: The local government and lenders develop a subsidized campaign to get residents to buy affordable housing and builders raise prices to accommodate their benevolent gesture. What’s left to determine is the amount of GF/FBs that will sign on to the program.
Squeezing every available GF out of the sponge on the way to absolute bone-dryness.
amen… watching the exhaustion process reach its bone dry conclusion is amazing. Funny part is is there wasn’t an ‘event’ that did it, it was just that the greater fool supply finally ran out.
Scottsdale Property
The Scottsdale property is back up on the National Auction website as a “Private Sale” but with no details of when the sale is to be made or price.
http://tinyurl.com/y2cbjr
Good find!
So how do you get in and out of that bathtub without giving the neighbors an eyeful of Mr. Winkie?
If they can see Mr. Winkie from those distances you missed your true calling. Ron Jeremy, be damned.
Forget Ron J, we’re talking John H.
“Several real estate experts have been quick to say that the current housing slump is nothing compared to that of the early 1990s.”
–yet
I was gonna say, only because right now we’re still at the equivalent of 1989.
I wonder what they’ll say a year from now…
Oh… what a suprise? Not!
The fun has yet to start… Just wait until credit gets back towards normal from the lose standards of today. Then… you’ll see the true nature of the market.
Neil
Surprisingly, I am not seeing as many “For sale” signs as I expected. What I am seeing is a big uptick in foreclosures and very recently, bankruptcy filings. I must confess, the bankruptcy filings are surprising. There’s no apparent point to it.
No point, other than stagnant wages, stagnant asset appreciation, and resetting ARMS.
Willing to bet that many of the BKs are by people who “own” more than one property. When you have multiple properties losing thousands of dollars in market value a week, it doesn’t take long for many to just throw in the towel to everything. One upside-down mortgage is debilitating enough, but 2 or 3 is absolute financial devastation. Especially given that the floor probably hasn’t been reached.
I’m absolutely amazed by the number of “normal” people who bought up properties and thought that if they held them for two years or so , they’d pocket hundreds of thousands of dollars.
I think the process will go right to foreclosures and bankrupcies, with no intermediate stage. Someone who is upside down has no options then denial (and wish prices) or facing an unaffordable reality. Denial will last until repo man rings (he always rings twice).
I’m with you eco. These people have no savings to support an intermediate stage of price declines and they can’t tap the in-laws because they are holding spec property also.
I keep up with how busy some men are who do construction, remodeling, etc. One in particular almost always works everyday. This past week he mentioned he had the day off. Somebody else asked him, ‘are you working tomorrow?’ ‘I hope so,’ he replied.
Ben, I’ve noticed something odd in my permit department lately. The last few months we’ve been getting calls from homebuilder employees and subcontractors inquiring about the status of specific permits. My guess is they want to know when they’ll have work again.
I’m seeing price reductions on “starter homes ” in San Jose - zip codes 95125, 95126, 95128.
A condo for sale in my building (Cupertino) was reduced by $50k as of this morning. This was after an attempt at FSBO failed, an agent has been hired. My friend who has her house for sale in Cupertino still has not received any offers after reducing the asking price $20k. The house is now listed $20k below what her neighbor sold for in 2005 (similar condition).
My real estate agent has called/emailed me saying that the end of December will be the time to buy as prices will begin to soar again in the Spring. We’ll see…
DId you ask why the prices might soar in the spring? After the SUperBowl maybe, during the After SuperBowl Sell-a-Thon? Did you ask what happened this past spring when the RE complex was hyping the much anticipated spring selling season of ‘06?
The NAR has absolutely no credibility and no influence over the market, unless they do all the buying themselves.
Actually I didn’t bother responding to his email or voicemail. We had already gone in circles this summer when he tried to convince me that interest rates would be much higher by the end of this year.
There was a typo above. Here, I’ll fix it:
as prices will begin to sour again in the Spring.
So after posting that link about Houston, I read in the paper a bit later that housing prices are up, as well as transactions. I think the last wave of equity locusts is arriving to make their final stand. They will lose here.
Lou, HBB Counter Intelligence Services (HBBCIS), has informed me you have identified a small expendable extemely active group of flippers known as “Texas Flippers or TF’s” who have been tasked to provide a feinting maneuver in Texas. The objective of the feint is to buy time for the main hoard to mass in Los Angeles for a last stand.
HBBCIS further advises to throw the TF’s a GF every now and then to keep their hopes up so they do not raise an alarm with the main Los Angeles hoard. You may use your own discretion as to whether to bleed them with Texas property taxes or interest rate resets. Good luck!
We will just get them with the electric rates. Or the heat and humidity.
In Texas, it’s not the heat, but the the stupidity that will kill you.
That, and the enormous cockroaches. Gulf Coast civic boosters from Mobile to Corpus Christi call them “palmetto bugs”, but they are really giant cockroaches that fly. Dozens of New York retirees drop dead each year from heart failure when they first see one in their houses.
Can I use that? There is stupid all over.
I’ve been watching one house near my neighborhood for quite a while. It’s been on the market for 333 days. From researching the public records, the seller has a $500K Option ARM that resets every month. The guy must seriously be drowning about now. It was being rented until yesterday (saw the cars packing up). Now it’s barren once again. It’s a nice house, but the guy is chasing the market all the way down and is about at his break-even point now. If you’re interested, here’s the home on ZipRealty:
http://snipurl.com/12ifx
According to Zip, nothing has sold anywhere near my neighborhood in the last three months…
Pensacola, Florida Flipper Alert!
Sold in June of 2006 for $373,400 (too much) this lovely 3/3 brick ranch within walking distance to the Pensacola Country Club (yearly membership $6,000 plus a one time assessment of $8,000 for rebuilding after hurricane Ivan plus $1,000 for stock) is back on the market at $499,900!
Listing
http://tinyurl.com/y59pq6
Property Appraiser
http://tinyurl.com/yxp8y5
I’m watching a home in my neighborhood (not to buy, just out of morbid curiousity) that’s been on the market for 333 days. Here’s the link to ZipRealty:
http://snipurl.com/12ifx
After researching this home from public records, it seems the owner took out around a $500,000 Option ARM that resets monthly. He has to be nearly drowning by now. It was being rented until just yesterday (saw the cars packing up). We’ll see how much longer this guy can hold on.
According to Zip, nothing has sold anywhere near my neighborhood in the last three months. This with dozens of homes on the market…
Went to an open house in Colorado Springs earlier today, just to do the smug renter/looky-loo thing. Not a soul to be seen, except for what had to be a realtor’s assistant. He was one of those pale, scrawny, black-clad, neophilliac-looking twits with dorky glasses, of the sort that used to pester me during late nights at the university library (I worked my way through school, so put in a lot of late nights at the library) to sign their petitions to fire the university president or some such thing. All of these busybody asswipes wore “Question Authority” or Che Guerva T-shirts while they went to school on Daddy’s money, and switched majors three or four times before graduating with a useless poly sci or sociology degree. They all looked like they had some kind of wasting disease as well. I’d sign their petitions with a made-up name, something like “Hugh G. Rection”, “Haywood J’Blowmei”, “Holden MaGroin”, or some similar juvenile witticism befitting the silliness of their petitions. But I digress.
Anyway, this poor kid had managed somehow to escape the counter at Starbucks, where most of his ilk have reached the pinnacle of their careers, and was some kind of trainee realtor. Go figure. While all of those guys look melancholy to me, this one looked clinically depressed, and didn’t even bother going through the motions of telling me what a great house this was. I got to talking to him, and it was kind of sad. He was honest, which makes up for a multitude of other sins. He candidly admitted that he didn’t have a hope in hell of selling that house or any house without a drastic price reduction, and had figured out he’d gotten into the whole RE game WAY too late. Though he didn’t say so, I also got the sense that he was idealistic enough to be completely disillusioned by the snarkiness he’d seen in the RE business in just a short time. Now he’s trying to figure out what to do with himself.
More and more people are beginning to see the light. By next spring a lot of delusions and false hopes are going to be shattered.
Sammy posts “More and more people are beginning to see the light. By next spring a lot of delusions and false hopes are going to be shattered.”
He should sign-up and go to Iraq. I bet he will find himself…. a stone killer trust me these guys are the best… sneek up on abdula and back stab him. I hope he dose sign-up it will prevent him from becomming a serial killer.
AE,
How did one person’s misfortune of career become a pot shot for military in Iraq. There are men and women serving their country and sacrificing time away from their family and friends so puke heads like you don’t have to. And please don’t open this up about “we shouldn’t be Iraq”, cause if we weren’t we’d be in Afghanistan or worse, Iran……please take your politcal discussion about military and Iraq out of this blog.
here in santa rosa the news coverage is deceptive,although they do report the negative news to some degree.christopherson homes has dropped prices $80k,on $800 k homes,and is throwing in incentives.in sebastopol a fully solar 3/2 home completely remodeled,nice lot,mature and good landscaping,$575k.this is in a nice part of a nice town and would have recieved multiple offers at $725k last august.builders are offering ez qualifying,100% financing and no payments for a year on toxic cardboard shitboxes.
Prices are still going up in Portland, Oregon. October 2006 median is up 8.4% over October 2005. But yes, sales volume is dropping and inventory accumulating.
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/business/1163825759197520.xml&coll=7
11th open house in a row tomorrow. Total price reduction: $4K. LOL, can’t rent it either although he tries on Craiglist
http://www.davidgriffin.com/index.aspx?List=2795&Agent=46&Area=5&id=ctrl/Detail.ascx
Quite a few of these now for sale in Midtown Houston. One road I drove through (near crack alley) had 4 for sales signs in the street.
Where is crack alley in Houston?
Oh, lots of places.
where do you find these?! It looks like a hideous shoebox with no redeeming qualities, imo….
In Portland, ME seems like we are almost back to peak bubble type transactions in normally slow time of year. Anything reasonably priced in the low to mid 200’s has an under contract sign on it w/in a week or so. Weird, because it is now almost spoken as a fact in daily conversation around the office, parties, etc. that home prices are falling. Very low Interest rates driving it I guess… Of course inventory is still very high, and McMansions seem to be sitting, so we’ll see.
Here in Hermosa Beach, I’m seeing more open houses out around here, but nothing like Phoenix yet. How about Tennyson, no condos in HB starting at $899,000? About $500,000 too much for me.
oops, the Tennyson condos in HB I just mentioned - they are “new”, as opposed to “no.” But paying $899,000 for nothing - may as well if you buy at those prices!
Thanksgiving week is upon us — the official beginning of the holiday season — and SD ziprealty shows 200+ “Newly listed” homes on top of 20K+ in used home inventory that was already out there twisting in the wind. Wouldn’t these sellers be wiser to just wait until after the Super Bowl to sell, as nobody buys during the holiday season anyway?
“Wouldn’t these sellers be wiser to just wait until after the Super Bowl to sell”
Heh heh, I’d be willing to bet that that’s why inventory isn’t even higher…realtors are telling people “don’t list now unless you have to, wait until spring when sales will pick up”. Spring ‘07 is when the inventory flood gates will really open…
I deeply regretted not having my digital camera in the car a couple hours ago, as I caught a rare glimpse of a “dicouraged sign twirler” sitting on his sign at the corner across from the nearest condo conversion to where I live… It would have made a great HBB photo.
Speaking of Lowell, I noticed that some of the
loft apartments downtown are making progress.
Back in August, they were brick buildings
holes in them where the windows would go.
Windows are in now and I can see construction
going in inside. These are in a nice location if
you work downtown but I’m guessing that they
are very expensive.
The high-end market here in S&M seems to be almost frozen up, but apparantly one GF was convinced to take a late bite in October. A house on 17th Street with a total assessed value of $166,998 which Zillowed for about $1.3 million, was purchased by this GF on October 18th for $2,042,000. Now I know that Zestimates can be way off, but this is ridiculous - the difference between the Zestimate and the selling price (about $634,000) is about what the house would be worth in a normal market.
If there are still GFs like that floating around, and nothing else is selling, it’s going to be some time before the comps correct in this area.
I’ve been attempting to get a feel for selling prices by neighborhood, not just by zip code or city. I’m not having a great amount of luck, though the following link is interesting:
http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/Florida/West_Palm_Beach-heat_map/
I don’t know whether Trulia has up-to-date information, or whether the up-to-date information is complete. But the link above is a sales chart by neighborhood for the city of West Palm Beach, FL. If it is accurate, the results are both stunning and strange.
The “Downtown” neighborhood is almost completely condos, most of them luxury. It isn’t surprising to see stunning declines there.
The Historic neighborhoods (i.e., old Florida homes, many quite nice) are “Grandview Heights”, “Flamingo Park”, “Vedado”, “Old Northwood”, and others (can’t recall them all of the top of my head). Note that all of those are suffering pretty badly. In some cases the numbers are so dramatically bad, that there must be some explanation for it other than declining sales. But it is interesting none the less
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
Some odd LA innor city home prices:
Just checking on the Oct dataquick figures for price runups in some of LA’s most slummy, rundown zips. Attempted to find a pattern of possible abnormal unusual pricing which runs counter to the normal october pattern of most LA zips showing essentially flat, slightly rising or declining yoy’s. There may be a possibility of massive overappraisals and mortgage fraud/ kickback schemes in these areas: there is no way that homes should be priced/sold at the values indicated in these nasty decayed rundown areas:
City, zip, SFH’s sold, Median sold price YOY % , short description of area .
Gardena 90248 2 $595 32.2% : E of 110 fwy in grimy industrial district, heavily immigrant.
Inglewood 90301 9 $520 14.3% : Nondescript older part of Inglewood, old small homes, decaying commercial zones.
Inglewood 90304 2 $560 45.5% : lennox, unincorporated, grimy heavily immigrant, hi-crime district.
LA 90011 28 $450 30.4% : East of 110 fwy, south of dwtn, classic run-dwn scentral innor la slumzone. 90 %
immigrant.
LA 90037 26 $490 24.8% west of 110, s of usc, n of slauson. Another decayed Ccentral slumzone
LA/August F. Haw 90044 53 $433 15.2% : Adjacent to 90037. Another nasty scentral pit.
LA/Firestone Park 90001 15 $460 36.1% Slummy area north of watts, deep within scentral LA.
LA/August F. Haw 90061 26 $430 25.5% next to 110 /105 fwys,
LA/Baldwin Hills 90008 8 $769 37.2 may be some nice hilltop homes but just below them in the flats are crenshaw district and baldwin village, major gang infested areas.
LA/Lincoln Heights 90031 13 $499 43.2% : Includes
China town, Solano cyn. Ulgy rotton grimy industrai area
NEast oF LA dwtn, heaviy immigrant.
Montebello 90640 20 $608 17.3% A baffling city. South areas hvy immigrant and indusrtialized. Northern hill areas near 60 fwy may be ok, but av price $608? Next to east LA and gangland to boot? No way it should be priced over &600,000.
Wilmington 90744 24 $459 14.2% Grimy port city,hvy immigrant, major Port and refinery pollution, junk yards galore.
Compton 90220 52 $400 14.3% no comment
Compton 90221 30 $430 19.4% “
I saw an ad looking for real estate brokers and mortgage specialists today.
There’s a RE/Mortgage place with one of those huge LCD displays and the
ad was on the LCD display. I guess they’re staffing up for the big spring
season.
Illinois - Oak Park - “The biggest housing boom in history and your sitting on the sidlines”. Thats what a condo developer told me when I looked at a 3 bed 1 bath conversion for 325K. Hasn’t sold them all yet and that was 2 years ago. Now one of the units started on fire, total loss. hmmm makes u wonder?
I don’t live anymore in a bubbly area since I sold my house in MA in 02/05 due to job relocaiton. I am always curious as to how things are going to go in the parts of the country that haven’t experienced great run ups in price. I live near Youngstown OH and have some news to report regarding what is happening in around here. If you aren’t familiar with Youngstown, it is about the most violent city in OH, was famous for its mob back in its hey day, still seems run by a Democratic machine, and never had any price run up since most people move out to find jobs elsewhere and almost never in. Basically its a rustbelt city like Flint, Michigan except that Michael Moore never made a movie about hundreds of thousands of steel workers getting screwed and their cities being destroyed by the incompetence of steelmill management.
Anyway, today’s Housing section of the paper had this to report: “We’ve had a good year.” “Overall the volume is down slightly which is not bad compared to the rest of the country” said the realtor being quoted. Realtors here apparently spin just like in the rest of the country.
This is then followed by a table comparing 3rd quarter 2006 to 2005. Of the city and 6 surrounding suburbs listed, 6 sold less units; 5 had price decreases (worse when you consider inflation of the past year); 4 had increases in the average time on the market.
The biggest percent decrease and increase in units sold were -26.6% and 1.1%, respectively. The biggest % decrease and increase in average sale price were -12.8% and 8% (both with price increases have been in areas where they are building new McMansions like crazy as in the rest of the country and that doesn’t seem to have stopped yet). The biggest % decrease and increase in average days on the market were -10.2% and +105%.
This is just one data point which does not make a trend but is interesting to see what is happening in places that eaked out growth at the rate of inflatio over the past run-up.
Peter M - I lived in the So Bay (Lomita, Torrance about 10 yrs ago). All of the areas you listed were the bottom of the barrel back then. I can’t believe that people are buying anything there at these prices. Will be big falls and many parts uninhabital in LA central (only gangs and thievery will be the main business).
TXCHICK. That Dallas townhouse has to be the ugliest thing I have ever seen. Great find. I wouldn’t pay em $200 for that, yet alone $200K+. I am sure that there are some decent houses to be had in Dallas for less than that. And wouldn’t a metal roof bake in the summer, and sound terrible in a rainstorm there? Whoever thought of that “archetecture” needs to be retrained into another career. (Like lobomoty school).
A discussion on whether the war is right or not would be an opinionated debate (with many sides). But we should all be supportive of the soldiers and military over there doing their duty. It obviously is not the most pleasant of situations for these very brave and deserving of every American’s support for their effort.