Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For November 24, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Hey! This is buy nothing day! Don’t tell me all of you have been dragged to the malls! Say it ain’t so.
It ain’t necessarily so. I’m working today. Not mall work, software engineering work.
Did the black friday last year…..NEVER AGAIN!!!!!! Besides, I plan on making most of my present this year. Why pay when i can make it.
You’ld better start shopping, the dollar is loosing ground!
Thanks for reminding me, better phone the broker to buy some more Australian bonds. Or whatever.
Southern California: Went to the gym this morning at 5 am. Came out at 6.30 am. Best Buy parking lot OVER FLOWING with buyers. Toys-R-Us jammed packed. Looks like the house ATM’s still have some loose change left and those multiple credit cards limits have just been increased. Meanwhile, the US dollar is tanking in Europe. Euro over $1.30 and the British Pound getting close to $2. We need those Republicans to regain the senate and the house soon or we could see the Euro trading at $2 and the British Pouind at $3…………Oh, I fogot. It was the Republicans who got us into this mess. Still, if you’ve got $30 million in off shore accounts I suppose it doesn’t matter that much.
“But the economy is roaring”, pay no attention to the international debacles.
This could be the start of something serious. The US$ is at 19 month lows against the Yen, BP & Euro. Major chart points have been broken. Trading is thin because of the US and Japan holidays, Monday could get real interesting. TWT
Chris
Question: How can the dollar hit 19-month lows while 30-yr govt bonds yields continue to drop?
I sold the Australian Dollar contract I bought recently ($A100k) today. But then I am still 75% in Aussie Dollars (investments in Australia). Looks like Euro and Yen could have more upside though. Monday I will look at shorting AUD and buying Euro and Yen…
How can the dollar be dropping and long-term interest rates be going down? Because people are worried about deflation. I don’t think that is what is going to happen, and I know the government will try to stop it if it does look likely, but no one knows for sure what will happen. We are in uncharted territory economically.
Not even stepping outside today. Blogs and football only.
test - this is a test
Not me - I’m stayin home on principle. No one is using my moola as a statistic.
My group of friends (we’re mostly Cal Arts alumni and others) have an unspoken agreement that we never buy anything for each other. We make things or find things on the side of the street and refurbish them. Our Xmas party is never dull >; )
No malls for us. We spent a quiet day with our family at home. We did some organizing to ready for Christmas, caught up on some paperwork and visited a small town near us for a lighting of the lights festival! It is a much nicer way to spend the day…and spending money does NOT make happiness!
Visit here instead:
http://www.deadmalls.com
Neat site. Saw someone’s post about the arcade I used to frequent back in the mid-80s, located in one of the “dead malls”. Memories…
I’m nursing a turkey hangover.
lol. next year try this place
http://www.kalachandjis.com
I thought you were kidding about the Hare Krishna’s. I like the idea of the moving menu. The 762 mile drive from my house might be a little bit much for one dinner, though.
When I lived in San Diego in the mid-80’s I used to eat at the Hare Krishna place, it was great. Fresh salad bar and really good food.
Talking about turkeys!
“In the meanwhile the currency of another large current account deficit country - guess which - has been sharply falling today…Will the US dollar soon turn into a turkey?”
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
Talking about turkey and hangovers!
“In the meanwhile the currency of another large current account deficit country - guess which - has been sharply falling today…Will the US dollar soon turn into a turkey?”
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
this is really OT…I got one of these motorola Q smartphones with internet access and I love it. I’m at my families house for the holiday weekend with no computer with internet access but I am still able to read my favorite blog. Thanks to Ben and all the people who post, I’ve leaned a ton from you all.
I couldn’t live without Mr. Blackberry.
Me either. Just say it. Mr. Crackberry.
Palm TREO myself, and it is great to read Ben’s blog when stalled in an airport or at family gatherings.
How well does your Treo work for reading 100+ postings on here? Two years ago or so I got a web-enabled phone and its fine up until you hit 60 to 80 postings, depending how long they are… then the browser tends to crap out and I reload and sometimes its good but once its beyond 100 posts its worthless.
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Palm Treo here too. No problemm reading all posts from this blog, but I can’t seem to post from it.
It’s all a matter of perspective. I doubt you’d say that if you worked for someone else and the blackberry was your 24/7 electronic leash.
Maybe it’s just me, but I happen to loath those insufferable anal polyps who just can’t get through the day without a constant stream of mostly useless data, information, or “entertainment” from their portable electronic devices. Whether it’s the cell-phone shithead on the metro or plane who has to loudly fill in some dickhead in his office, not to mention forty other passengers who don’t give a damn, about the mundane details of his latest meeting or business conquest, or the guy on the skylift or beach obsessively consulting his Blackberry while missing the point of “getting away from it all”, I have an overwhelming desire to wish for some kind of sunspot-driven EMP pulse that would fry the electrons of all these hand-held devices and force the lifeless geeks who use them as an imbelical cord to RECONNECT to life, nature, and to their fellow human beings.
AMEN!
Sammy, I guess your rant is directed at me. Sounds like you have a lot of pent-up frustration, you should seek professional help. What’s the matter? Crappy, lonely Thxgiving? And by the way, I don’t consider this blog “useless” information. Please smile, your life can’t be all that bad.
Bostonsideliner, my “rant” isn’t directed at anyone who uses technology as a tool, at the appropriate time and place. Rather, it’s directed at users who must constantly be plugged into their devices, often in total inconsideration of others (i.e. the dipshits who bring their cellphones into restaurants, theaters, or barbershops, and have to take or make non-essential calls and carry out loud and for the most part unnecessary conversations). I once went skiing with a guy who kept checking his stocks every five minutes, obsessively — needless to say I don’t care to be around people who don’t know when to turn their “devices” off and just enjoy LIFE.
Oh, and by the way, my Thanksgiving was excellent, spent with friends and family who know how to enjoy each others’ company and have a great time together without burying their heads in a Blackberry, iPod, etc.
“I once went skiing with a guy who kept checking his stocks every five minutes, obsessively…”
I know the feeling… I took a buddy sailing and he spent the entire sail IMing with his coworkers. It was an awesome sailing day, but I don’t think he took his eyes off his pda from castoff to tie-up. Hope he enjoyed his last sail with me.
havn´t seen this been postet before.
more evidence that there is trouble and repricing going on in the mbs market
massive warning from fifth third bncp (3rd. story)
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Sigh. Why do I keep getting the feeling America is about 4/5 the way through “Atlas Shrugged” …..
Can almost hear Bernanke saying ‘Who’s John Galt?”
I’ve been thinking the same thing…
Who is our Francisco D’Aconia?
Wow, I hated that book. A lame potboiler-cum-propaganda piece. Rand is highly overrated.
That book is a trashy romance novel blended with Objectivist propaganda. Highly overrated.
It was required reading when I was in high school. No, not in English Literature…. in of all things, my European History class.
Because many people hate that book only because they hate the author of that book, even though she was right. They also say such insulting remarks such as “I loved the book when I was young, but when I grew up…,” to put down those who love the book as shallow, and as if objectivism is not about reality at all. A.S. haters just did not get it and refuse to “get it.”
Yep, that’s about right. Unfortunately, it looks like the ending in real life is going to be even worse than in the book.
Crum — I upgraded to Firefox 2.0 and hate the tabs. Set a restore point but Windows won’t restore. Anyone know how to go back to the previous version without losing all my bookmarks and settings?
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Try Tools–>Options–>Tabs?
Gekko — thx — tried that. Doesn’t work, even though the check-box choices imply that it should. The irritation is that clicking on a link gives me a window with no navigation keys at all, particularly no “back” button.
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try uninstall then reinstall.
Yeah, that seems to be the only way. Thx.
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OT:
Great interview!
He talks about efficient markets, hedge funds, and active vs. passive investing and says he has no active funds in his portfolio. He’s a brilliant guy with a great sense of humor. Very interesting and entertaining listen. ENJOY!
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Eugene Fama Interview
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) — Eugene Fama, professor of finance at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business, talks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene in Chicago about efficient market theory and Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate economist who died today at the age of 94.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vc9QltyA50qM.mp3
One possible solution to the oversupply of housing. According to WaPo Prince William county in NoVA is thinking of banning the construction of new housing. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/23/AR2006112301008.html
Prince William county, a suburb of DC in Northern Virginia, where people have bought new homes in droves and now want to prevent others from buying new homes.
..aahh the sweet smell of selfishness and hypocrisy. I got mine, screw you.
What a great gift for a young man or woman coming back from Iraq and ready to settle into Northern Virginia for a career in government: $500,000 price tag for an Archie Bunker style house.
They’ve been working on a zero growth plan in Davis Ca for decades (they call it smart growth but it’s not). It’s not working. UCDavis is about to add another 1660 housing units for purchase by staff and faculty (which means all faculty but that’s a whole other rant).
Now the other cities are expanding their borders closer and closer to Davis and building a ton of new homes. In cases like this, the market will find a way to screw their nimby selfish asses in time.
If you have any interest in reading the posted rantings of a realtor who maintains that prices are rising in South FL, take a look here (where, among other things, you will see this blog slammed. The reason? It’s “gay”. Wierd.). The forum is hosted by the Palm beach Post. I’ll warn you - It’s nasty:
http://tinyurl.com/vq7ua
Poster: “Ask yourself why the number of students enrolled dropped from year to year.”
Reply: “Enrollment dropping in PBC schools? Let’s hope so. I am tired of paying for other people’s kids, and so are hundreds of thousands of retirees moving to Florida.”
That’s almost like, “How high is that building?” “Green.”
The one dominant, irrational poster ruins the entire forum.
Not too bad, reminds me of the arguements on Sacramento Bee website in the comments section on any housing related story.
Be Wary of the Markup and then a fake discount
You know, they’ll mark it up 50% and then tell you it’s a great sale when they offer 50% off the price…… Wait, is that Christmas shopping or REAL ESTATE??? LOL
This is off topic, but I was talking to a buddy last night and he said he and a couple friends were going to start trying to flip homes in Dallas (south of 635 in between 75 and the tollway). I did not want to sound like a know it all, but I told him that I thought the boom was coming to an end and flipping homes was propably going to be harder than previous years. He basically blew me off and said thay could make a ton of money doing it. My question is - Is there still money to be made flipping homes in Dallas? I know this is impossible in the newer areas since appreciation is minimum here, but do the older neighborhoods still hold any potential?
Thanks,
Joe
The only way to make money now in RE is by loan fraud.
Yesterday, I suggested to a young relative, who is a talented systems guy, that he consider getting involved in the tracking-and-catching end of loan and appraisal fraud. Who knows, maybe the county tax collector will pay a bounty for discovery of false claims for homestead exemption, or the IRS might pay a bounty for discovery of falsified claims for the sale of a principal residence. There should be a way to track sales of properties for noticeably more $ than the asking price, though I don’t know who’d want to buy the information. Seems like there should be good money waiting for creative thinkers who can either prevent additional fraud or catch the perps, and who can contact the beneficiaries of that.
I like the way you think, Chip.
Yes, wouldn’t it be nice if those of us who are watching this market like hawks could turn in those who commit fraud. I’ve seen quite a few transactions that would warrant an investigation — like a sale in LA in April ‘06 selling for $60K more just a couple of months later, with no apparent improvements made. And the price was well over what comparable homes have sold for in the neighborhood.
Your friends are business geniuses and I think they are on to something here. RE estate in Dallas only goes up as it is different there.
Dallas is a flippers paradise as people just love cup cakes. If fact, you don’t even have to add a granite kitchen as everyone eats BBQ and doesn’t cook inside.
A little known secret: Since Dallas is almost midway in the country, you have views of both Atlantic and Pacific Oceans from either side of your dream house. Millions of people are moving to Dallas everyday.
LOL.
well my treo 600 seems to be working ok, let’s see if it posts
good luck trying to sleep at night if you live in a downtown San Diego condo (in addition to whatever financial woes):
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061124/news_1m24quiet.html
More asset bubble data. This Aussie investment bank has been scooping up overpriced RE and infrastructure assets using extreme leverage- their latest quarry is Quantas Airlines:
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Macquarie Bank started out in the early 1970s as the Australian offshoot of British investment bank Hill Samuel. For its first 20-odd years it remained privately owned, until the stock finally debuted on the ASX in July 1996 with a modest market capitalisation of $1 billion.
a kindred spirit blogger’s critique of Macquarie Bank’s investment strategy:
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http://tinyurl.com/ykknnh
Excellent Article - Housing Bubble Smackdown - at the Smirking Chimp:
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/3204
Happy Days in the Weimar Republic
So, what was the “Grand Plan” the Fed had in mind when they decided to anesthetize the American public with low interest rates and flood the planet with worthless green scrip?
Did they think that Bush would corner the oil market and, thus, force the rest of the world to take our anemic greenbacks? Or were they just planning to steal every last farthing from the American people before they loaded the boats and fled to more promising markets in Asia?
Or perhaps they were delusional enough to believe that really wonderful things would happen if they just kept tossing banknotes into the Jet-stream like New Year’s confetti?
Whatever the madcap rationale might have been, the country is now facing an agonizing wake-up call as the full-effects of Greenspan’s tenure materialize and the stronghold of global consumerism deteriorates into Weimar USA.
In the long run, Greenspan’s treachery will loom larger then that of his “would-be” understudy, Bin Laden. He put the country on the fast-track to disaster.
Just watch as the “For Sale” signs go up on lawns across America in Dear Alan’s honor.
From “Dan’s Magazine Hamptpn Style”:
Being that we’re in the Hamptons celebrating the Film Festival, let’s start with the market out East: how did the market do this summer as compared to last, and is the “bubble” bursting?
[laughing] No, the bubble is not bursting. The market actually did better for us this summer than last. I’ve always said that having a property in the Hamptons is like having a blue chip stock: over time it’s always going to be good.
But there are so many For Sale signs?
There is more inventory than there has been in the last couple years. The older, more tired properties have lingered, but those that have pizzazz are moving, and will continue to move.
http://www.danshamptonstyle.com/
USA Today has an article on the affordability crisis, particularly as it affects Florida:
Wealth gap swallows up American Dream