‘Soft Landing Begins’ In California: CAR
The Contra Costa Times reports on a recent poll. “The random telephone poll taken from Jan. 16 to Jan. 23 shows that 40 percent of responders have seriously considered leaving the Bay Area. Of those, 70 percent said the high cost of housing was a major factor leading them to dream of cheaper pastures.”
“Fifty-three percent of those polled in Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties said clogged freeways and sky-high home prices have them thinking about the color of the grass on the other side of the East Bay hills, according to the survey conducted by the Bay Area Council.”
The realtor association reports on what may be some relief. “The median price of an existing home in California in January increased 13.8 percent and sales decreased 24.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago, C.A.R. reported today. The January 2006 median price increased 0.5 percent compared with December’s $548,640 median price.”
“‘The California real estate market is beginning to experience the soft landing that we expect to be the underlying dynamic driving the housing market this year,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘The number of homes for sale has risen to a six-month supply, which will translate into a slower rate of price appreciation than we experienced in 2005.’”
“In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick, 93.2 percent or 355 of 381 cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. Dataquick, which produces a separate, more inclusive, price survey, says the median price in California in January was $452,000. That was down 1.3 percent from $458,000 for December.”
“If Central Valley real estate agents looked a little lean and hungry in January, it might because the sales pace was down 31.9 percent from December and down 23.9 percent from January of 2005. Prices in the Central Valley also fell in January to a median of $347,070. That’s down 2.5 percent from December.”
“‘We have now seen three months in a row where sales have dropped more than expected,’ said Robert Kleinhenz, an economist with CAR. ‘At least some home buyers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.’”
“‘Mortgage brokers are not as busy, real estate brokers are not as busy,’ said Kevin Clay of a San Carlos-based real estate and financial services firm. ‘There seems to be a decrease in activity overall.’”
“The inventory of homes for sale could swell as new homes nearing completion come on the market, and as home owners who believe mortgage rates will head higher rush to list houses before financing tightens, said Bob Edelstein, co-chair of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.”
“Soft landing”–at least the NAR has yet to pick up Google’s line about trending toward a more “organic” growth rate.
I think the NAR uses the same analysts who said our troops would be greeted as liberators in Iraq.
I think unemployment numbers are going to skyrocket soon. I just don’t see the economy absorbing all the people who will be out of work soon. Add in all the bankruptcies due to people thinking the party was going to last forever. Going to get real ugly out there.
its not gonna happen. somebody will sure of that.
What do you mean it’s not going to happen. Haven’t you been paying attention it’s already happening. IMO the signs all around you. I’m beginning to feel nostalgic. But this time I’m taking a different approach to this coming up market of opportunity.
WHO IS THAT SOME BODY, CARE TO IDENTIFY HIIM!!!!
yeah. You can just say “No way”, Jose.
What he means is that the government will “game” the numbers so the media lap dogs can continue to tell us “all is well” Just like they do with the CPI.
Couldn’t agree more, the ’souffle’ has fallen.
the sofle has fallen that doesnt mean you cant eat it .try some please its still good really its still worth full price.nah i think not ill get it for half price.nar and re people are worse than divorce lawyers.
6 more months, and the s#$it will really be hitting the fan!
Of course, there’s the new bankruptcy bill that makes it more difficult to file. You have to wonder what they’re going to do when those bankrupted still can’t pay. Put them in debtor’s prison?
And the detectives who said Vince Foster committed suicide and couldn’t find the missing Rose Law firm records or cattle future records until the statute of limitations had expired. Oops!
no statute of limitations on murder - but, I get your drift.
confiucius say:
It is better to keep mouth shut and have others think you are an idiot
than
to open it and prove them right.
Maybe when the crash comes you can make a few bucks on e-bay selling videos that tell us all how the Clenis ™ (that is WIlliam Jefferson Clinton’s schlong) is responsible for the second great depression.
Of course there probably wont be a whole lot of internet access or loose cash in the “Bushvilles” that will be popping up.
I remember back in the day, when every thread didn’t turn into a collection of snide political comments. That’s what was great about this blog: All bubble, all the time, no politics.
People, if you can’t keep your anti-Democrat/anti-Republican comments to yourself, at least do us a favor and make them somewhere else. There are plenty of echo chambers and places to pick a fight on the Internet.
Public policy is deeply intertwined with the housing bubble. Banning its discussion is counter-productive.
I remember back in the day, I had to turn on AM radio to hear junkies talking about Hillary killing Vince Foster.
My comments were anti-stooooopid.
I, like you, come here for intelligent discourse. BUT if you dont stomp on the idiots they keep coming back strong. You know what comes next, he tries to sell you herbal “growth enhancers”.
GOOG is getting real organic really fast…
My brother in-Law has made only one sale this year so far and it doesn’t close escrow until next month. Thats 3 months without a paycheck for an established agent.
Party’s over in the central valley, time to tighten those belts really tight. Love it.
People in the valley have been partying like rock stars from home equity in the valley. I really fear the worse for this area.
We will have our asses handed to us!
It’s ridiculous to drive thru these CV cowtowns and see former sh$tkickers driving around in new 100K+ SLs and BMWs. Monster SUVs and trucks in nearly every McMansion driveway, all thanks to the bubble. Now the party is over and nasty hangover phase begins. Love it!
Going to be a very nasty hangover. I can already see everyone b@tching about their high property taxes when values fall. The local govt’s are going to be hurting when the $$$$ slows down. I’m sure they projected their budgets like the party would never end. The terminator is going to have to crack his whip and cut some costs here real quick.
Nope, he is now pushing a 200B+ bond for ‘infrastructure.’ So much for balanced budgets in CA.
but when they get a check it a good one 400k home 5 % commission 20k, split in half is 8k w/ broker fees..8k divided by 3 months of work equal 2666 a month income not a lot but not bad for part time work….its not rocket science
My Brother in-Law is at the office at 8:00am, typically leaves at 6:00. In between he is feilding calls, showing houses, setting up his advertising, farming for more listings, sending out mailings, creating flyers, etc etc. It’s hardly a part time job. And try and support a family on $2666 a month not including the fees he has to pay the broker to maintain an office affilation.
What he’s not just sitting in the office waiting to rob unsuspecting buyer/sellers of their hard earned dollars and making bucket fulls of cash by the minute. Or inflating the bubble or flipping to his buddies trying to get rich quick. What do you mean he actually works. Sounds like he works hard for his $2,666. Can’t afford a family, a Benz, and a McMansion on that. Well maybe if you got the right voodooo financing and the stars were aligned just right. But I digress.
A realtor that actually works for a living according to this board is a novelty. You should put his picture up so all can see. This doesn’t sound like the typical realtor I have been hearing about around here.
i say he needs to get a real job,one where he cant leave the office to go to starbucks every hour,its sales,a hard way to make a living….i know i have been a saleman for twenty years,and if u can make it as a real estate saleman you have a great job with total freedom
Yea your right if he has the time leave the office every hour to go to Starbucks he might as well fill out an application while he’s there cause he’s not making a dime in real estate.
Don’t miss the tables at the bottom of the CAR link showing how much sales have dropped off. Even though they reported almost 7% of the ‘cities and communities saw yoy decreases in the median price, they only listed one; Santa Barbara’s South Coast. I counted 8 regions with declines from December 05, the biggest being Northern California.
Hmm…
A six months supply BEFORE March 1st?
Interesting.
Most of the local homeowners I’ve talked to are GETTING READY to put their homes on the market.
March is going to be a very, very interesting month.
The ‘March’ of the Inventory begins tomorrow.
Might be a lot of ANOREXIC realtors come August.
Get ready for all-time record inventories.
Before, the plane was out an engine, with a couple of holes in the cabin.
Still, the Association of Realtors was telling the passengers:
“We’re only experiencing a bit of turbulence, please keep your seats.”
It’s going to be a hoot to hear what they say in the next month…
…when a wing falls off.
Yes, and when those ARMs begin resetting in earnest in the summer that plane will start clipping trees and buildings. Look out below!
‘The number of homes for sale has risen to a six-month supply, which will translate into a slower rate of price appreciation than we experienced in 2005.’”
Now that’s an interesting interpretation………..
What kind of translation is that? Put away the bong pipe, lady!
According to the yahoo poll - housing prices are not going to change this year:
http://post.polls.yahoo.com/quiz/quizresults.php?poll_id=12254&wv=1
It’s interesting to note however that the poll you refer to skews more negative than positive. That shows that more people than not believe that house prices will actually decline.
Actually, there are several ways to read this poll. Less than half believe there will be a decline, 38%. However, even fewer believe prices will rise, 24%. 41% believe there will be no change.
So it can be spun several ways. If you’re a democrat, you say, “Polls show that 79% of American believe that homes will not appreciate this year.” If you’re a repulican, you say, “America remains confident. 65% of Americans believe home prices will not fall.” And, finally, if you put your brain above your sympathies, you say, “An old SFH in Compton, CA ain’t worth no half million dollars… crazy bastards!”
And the crazy part is that the poll adds up to 102% for the total of all. I hate when they do that.
OK, lets not get ahead of ourselves..In my local, inventory is still very low on a historical basis…Letsd watch the new home starts data and new home sales data…If they continue to weaken then the UCLA Anderson forcast may come true (Jobs) and the whole shittery could come unwound…
I believe you are right on
I live in a manufacturing state and there are already layoffs - The Housing Bubble Legacy “WMD (wicked manufacturing decline)”
when taking the interest rate into account, the home price is certainly even higher than the actual number. the cost of buying a home has only worsened. when the cost of buying a home levels out or declines, that’s when the bubble ends.
sellers are dumb if they hold on or lower the price at small increment. they should price to sell. unless they are a flipper, they should still make a huge profit.
this is just in from the NY times.
“In another indication of a cooling housing market, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes last month fell to their lowest level in two years as condominiums and co-op purchases tumbled almost 11 percent. The number of homes on the market also climbed, but prices were still up from year-earlier levels.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 101.7 this month, from 106.8 last month, as Americans expressed greater concern about the short-term health of the economy and their immediate job prospects.
And the Commerce Department said that the gross domestic product price index, a measure of inflation, rose 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, not 3 percent as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 3.3 percent in the quarter, up from 2.8 percent in the third quarter.
Investors have been concerned that an upturn in inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates as much as twice more in the coming months. Rising rates dampen economic growth broadly and could prove to be an especially severe strain on the housing sector, which is dependent on low mortgage rates.
Anyone seen any increase in inventory in W. LA /
Santa Monica / Venice Beach?
Barely. Still very low inventory in Santa Monica (at least for houses). When I bought my home in 2001 I could easily hit 15-20 open houses on any given Sunday. Right now there are probably only 10-15 SFRs for sale in my area.
hmmm, currently there are 51 active sfrs in santa monica according to the mls. furthermore, the zip charts from the past sunday’s la times (also available on dqnews.com) show only single digit yoy gains for every zip code in santa monica. i think santa monica will be lucky to see a gain of any kind when the february yoy data is in.
By “my area” I didn’t mean the entire city.
forget those coastal areas people with money always gravitate to the coast.most of those are paid off for many years and will be the last to drop.this bubble will burst from the burbs inward and most of la is burbs so i see 07 being a bloodbath and 08 the same.the deals in santa monica will come later when re hits bottom.
bottomfeeder1-
Not to dispute you but Santa Monica and the coast in general was hit very hard by the last bubble. Example: 1.3 million 3/2 on a cliff in P.V. 3000 sqft. huge lot piss off the back fence and hit the ocean with no effort. Bank had to give it away at 950k feds were breathing to hard and they couldn’t get rid off it unless they fire sold it. There are a lot of people along the coast that are hanging on by their fingernails and overextended is a understatement.
1.3m to 950k. well, that is already happening even before the property is foreclosed.
Have friends who own several area properties, bought in last 4 years with I\O loans; they are running out of cash fast and “waiting for the spring.” Gotta believe more inventory is coming.
That number must not count condos. 90403 was full of For Sale signs on condos over the weekend. Lots of “Open Condos” as well, signs at most every intersection.
I seem to be seeing one. I drive from the beach down Rose Ave., down Palms, and to Venice Blvd. yesterday and counted 10 for sale signs. The most intense was on Rose Ave. where I saw 6 buildings for sale within 2 blocks. This is new.
I have been seeing reductions in some area’s Palos Verdes to be specific along with an influx of property that is sub 1 million. Compared to last year that is a good sign. Venice is speculator heaven if you saw six signs within 2 blocks they are aware and trying to get out before they are left holding the bag. LOL looks like some flippers are reading the blogs
Either that or they just figured out that it takes about 100K in legal costs and bribe fees to get a permit to change a freaking window in Venice.
Exactly! And since this market is such a game, the more that people are paying attention, and acting accordingly, the more quickly the whole thing is likely to unravel. I think that this whole thing is about to flip here in Los Angeles, and it could turn quickly if it’s as speculator driven as it seems to be.
It’s going to be very very interesting to see how the market shakes out here in Southern California particularly Los Angeles and the surrounding cities.
I’m going to frame this one. The underlying dynamic driving…. WTF - time for a random drug screening for Leslie because I see her as either a heavy drinker or a big dope-head.
No booze or drugs, just lies.
Opiate of the masses.
Chief Economist-Liar Appleton-Young will say anything to protect her job and no doubt her personal no-brainer RE investments.
People here recently compared the market to Wile E. Coyote, momentarily suspended in mid-air and about to plunge downward.
That was then; this is now: Wile E. has begun plunging downward, and CAR is pretending that he has a parachute. They’ll be revealed as the shills they when he leaves a perfectly shaped impact crater in the hard ground below.
And in the center of the crater will be Ms. Appleton-Young with one of those cute little umbrellas.
CAR is pretending that he has a parachute but finds out it is an anvil.
By the way, CNBC was all over this story today, that is, the softening housing market, especially with regard to effects on consumer spending.
Yeah, remember how the media was all oh-la-la over the .com stocks….until they tanked.
The same thing is happening here. They are starting to get a clue to what has been going on. Once the media completes the turn, and they start ripping into housing like they did .com stocks….watch the panic selling.
It is going to be interesting to see how it all pans out.
SoCalMtgGuy
Another F–KED Borrower
FB FORUMS
Back in December Leslie states:
‘It’s Economics 101,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. ‘It’s demand and supply.’
For more info about the clowns over at the California Association of Realtors.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
More evidence of clownery from VoiceOfSanDiego
I can’t believe they’re playing the Katrina card. This is January in California, Katrina was September….. in Louisiana. That Appleton-Young tramp will say anything.
Yeah, that is about the weakest thing I’ve read this week (and there have been some truly braindead comments from “economists” working for the real estate industry). If there is one thing this consumer is “confident” about, it’s that consumer confidence in California, and the housing market, are not being affected by Katrina. In fact, I think consumer confidence was higher a month ago than it is today. Maybe consumers are feeling upset because Bode Miller didn’t win any medals…or maybe the Cheney hunting incident is causing a “pause” in the housing sector.
About Katrina and the rebuilding of New Orleans, KB is building 8,000 homes priced from 150K to 450K. Come on now, 450K homes in Las Vegas and Phoenix were crazy, but in New Orleans were a building in the French Quarter was less than 450K. People moving back are not going to pay 450K for a home.
here is the link http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0228/p02s01-usgn.html
wow. We were in New Orleans 2 weeks before the hurricaine and if it weren’t for the stifilng heat and giant bugs, we talked about moving there. You could buy a beautiful victorian in the garden district for 400,000. And you were across the street from some of the best food in the world at Commanders Palace.
My brother-in-law was working in the oil clean up down there and said they were offering $12,000 signing bonuses at Burger King, cause they couldn’t find employees. Maybe these are the salaries that will but that 400,000 McShack.
Inventories up, up, up … coming soon, to a real estate market near You!
Arizona is going for Gold in the inventory race.
Phoenix inventory up 13% in February alone.
Tucson inventory up 17% in February alone. That was on top of ‘record’ January 2006 figures.
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/
Just wondering is there a way we can email these people why they say what they say ? and or questioned their supposedly knowleadgeable predictions. I’ve been reading this blog since april last year and i know there are a lot of smart people in here. Why don’t somebody engage them in a debate??
also i know three people who bought and are bying houses right now and haven’t sold their old house, what is a good thing to say to them?
one of them a realtor said ” he’ll list his house this spring ’cause it always picks up in the spring. ”
two of them thinks prices will never comedown so might as well buy now.
sometimes i begin to think their right. I’m in the inland empire by the way where there will be a lot of jobs coming according to economist John Husing.
“I know three people who bought and are bying houses right now and haven’t sold their old house”
With the affordability at an all time low I think this “moving up” group makes up the majority of the few buyers we have left. Without new blood the market will fall apart
With so many people having made a killing on RE then someone needs to be left holding the bag. Money don’t grow on tree’s you know. (Of course the fed could always print more…)
Or as the case may be, Someone will be left holding Two or maybe even three bags.
He’s not feeding that NAFTA Trade Agreement nonsense is he they have been saying that since the last downturn
6 months supply of inventory on hand….and it’s not even March 1st yet. Wonder what it’s going to be in May?
12 months? 18? My guess is a slew of ‘reasonably’ priced homes (still way high but 25 / 30% under median of previous month) will be available and will be adequate to supply those in real need of a home. The very large majority will sit forever, as IO’s reset, Option ARMs reset. In the summer months a bumpy 1 to 2% drop a month. Then a long, long ride to the bottom. Say 2009, 2010?
Slightly OT… but the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported just recently that the supply of single-family home inventory in MA increased from eight months in December ‘05 to - are you ready for this? - FOURTEEN months just one month later in January!
That downward acceleration is astonishing. It looks like once the snowball starts rolling down hill… it picks up a rocket-assist motor, a gravitron 3200 and a companion neutron star as it hurtles downward…
What with legions of speculators, in over their heads buyers, and bommers looking for a windfall - in certain markets there may easily be 3 YEARS of supply ready to hit the market this spring.
Oh that would be a very interesting market to say the least.
Wow, 14 mos. — link?
Any first time home buyer just now in california has to be the greatest fool! never catch a falling knife. the wise sold out in summer. home owners will hope this just a temporary correction till they see few years of persistent decline when even the most bullish turns around. thats still few years and substantial negative ‘real’ returns away. there will be occasional sucker rallies in between but just that - for suckers.
I see the cover of Time already, sometime later this summer:
America For Sale - But Is Anyone Buying?
OK Auction…you put your blogger foot in your mouth…check out a 1981 edition of time magazine regarding the sunseting of california…
SC -
If I’m not mistaken, you might mean a 1991 edition of Time magazine.
Or somewhere in the early 90’s (but not ‘81).
My error..your right jack…
Hey - it happens.
I just remember that cover, that’s how I knew it wasn’t ‘81. A look out the Waldo Tunnel from Marin toward the Golden Gate Bridge, with rush hour traffic. And a colorful sunset, if I recall.
“40 percent of responders have seriously considered leaving the Bay Area. Of those, 70 percent said the high cost of housing was a major factor”
So let me get this straight? 28% of those polled have considerd leaving the state because of high housing cost and this is an indication of “soft landing”.
1/4 of the residents think about leaving!! I bet a hard landing is a real bitch, people jumping out of windows and eating their pets, shit like that….
“‘The California real estate market is beginning to experience the soft landing that we expect to be the underlying dynamic driving the housing market this year,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘The number of homes for sale has risen to a six-month supply, which will translate into a slower rate of price appreciation than we experienced in 2005.’”
this woman is certifiably nuts
And to think we laughed at Bagdhad Bob. He was simply in the wrong place, trying to sell the wrong real estate.
Read about Laguna Niguel Market Conditions.
“Laguna Niguel is an upscale community between Laguna Beach and Dana Point. Some homes here cost millions, but there are condos beginning in the $400,000 range. Don’t even think about making an offer on a home unless you have been pre-approved for a loan here. Most homes get multiple-offers, so be ready to bid UP from your first bid if it is low. Sellers should be willing to get a swing/bridge loan if they find a property they want to buy. Homes are appreciating well here, and we would not be surprised if they appreciated between 15 and 20 percent annually for the next few years.”
I just wanna puke.
Yea a whole page of Laguna Nigel Realtors. The one I found interesting was the one that recommended buying a condo over a Multi-plex. That’s really really bad advice in any market bubble or not.
Will America Pass the Baton?
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11571035/site/newsweek/
NYT: ‘Made in U.S.A.’ Isn’t a Hot Label on Goods in China
In a few months, it’ll be tough to sell RE properties to Chinese too.
you guys are making me laugh to tears…companion neutron star…eating pets…
sorry to be OT, but the Chinese *really* want to buy the Visteon (auto supplier that got taken back from offshoot by Ford, to be shot out the door now with ‘restructuring’) plants being abandoned. local news said they’re among a number of interested parties, but they *really* want to get up on the technology and spend their billions of dollars on something useful instead of our debt.
“The number of homes for sale has risen to a six-month supply, which will translate into a slower rate of price appreciation than we experienced in 2005.’”
YOU MUST BE KIDDING, DO MEAN TO SAY THERE IS GOING TO BE PRICE APPRICIATION IN 2006????? I AM SEEING RUDUCED SIGHS ALREADY IN WEST LA!!!!!
No !!!!!, Not in West L.A. where everyone wants to live and real estate never goes down. Tell me it isn’t so. Although I’m sure lainvestorgirl will appreciate the news.
When the YOY declines kick in this summer, they’ll switch to reporting 2 yr YOY gains.
was there any mention of relative to what? none.
How prices go down in West LA with all the cool Hollywood people there? In Silicon Valley maybe with all the tech nerds but not West LA. An upcoming remake of “Down and out in Beverly Hills”?
LOL they loose their ass just like everyone else. In some cases even moreso. Hollywood is not immune by a long shot.
Negative rates of appreciation would be slower… Kinda brings to mind Ben Bernake’s delphic utterance about housing price “deceleration”.
Just got off the phone with my mom in Fort Myers, FL. Unsolicited, she told me that there are homes all over the place for sale at levels she’s never seen before - in 20 years.
Love it! :-))
I just looked up Fort Myers, and there are 6781 properties (9892 area wide) listed for sale. Wouldn’t that be about 10% of the population selling their home?
8982 area wide for sale not 9892.
Idea for new source of energy:
At 2PM, have everyone who is selling their home in America point their For Sale signs at a given point in the sky.
In space, a satellite with a giant football field sized umberella opens.
The reflections from all the For Sale signs beam the reflected light of the sun into the umberella.
A mirror on the back of the umberella redirects the concentrated energy, and beams it down to a collector in the Nevada desert.
The heat of the collected light is used to turn giant steam turbines.
Electricity is transmitted to California.
Yes, a positive use for the biggest Real Estate sell of in the history of Man.
For Sale Sign Electricity.
I might have to patent that sucker.
Funny stuff
Or maybe find away to collect all the hot air coming from the experts and get some geothermal energy going.
You mean the methane, don’t you?
Yes, they can be stinky too!
Appleton-Young supply of Hot Air = Six Months.
Could be used to charge high-capacity batteries?
Some of this this stuff is just bad gas….
Everything in California will trend downward. The question is, how fast will your neighborhood fall? Sure, the OC is spendy, but there are also good schools, high end jobs, technology, etc., which should slow the fall. Now places like Perris, Moreno Valley, etc., have very little to offer, so I see them dropping rather quickly. Phoenix is a good example of little to offer, IMHO.
I concur, OC has so much to offer. Who wouldn’t want to live in Anaheim, Buena Park, Westminster, Garden Grove, Stanton…
history dose show that the outskirts often take the largest hit from a bust
I tend to agree.
Especially with high energy prices, I would imagine that in California that the biggest RE declines would be in the Inland Empire (Riverside, San Berdo, Murietta etc.).
If you go back fifty years, the only developments in Murietta or Gilman were the hot springs. Everything else was just shrub and desert, served by a lonely, winding 395. Combining significantly higher oil prices with a a collapse in Inland Empire real estate may well return us to those days.
The desert always reclaims its own.
Gives a whole new meaning to the term “Realt-whore”:
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/ers/136973645.html
Damn, the poster removed it!!!
I have to differ with you about the OC.
It will fall just as hard, and just as fast. Maybe faster. People here are waaaaay overextended.
The Law of Supply and Demand cares little about schools and jobs.
If you’re house- or houses- have been sitting on the market for oh, say six months with no firm offers…
…you could be living in Heaven- but you’d still have to cut your price…
…drastically.
That’s what’s going to happen in August.
Auction I disagree they aren’t “waaaaay” overextended they are w(a x 1000)y overextended
I agree - can’t wait until IRVINE finally get hit with a dose of this. Prices and egos are in-line and still very high. 1 bedroom condos going for $400K +. http://www.avenueoneirvine - called them the other day 2 bedroom unit 1300 square feet $726K. PUHLEEZE
I know it sounds crazy, but the same thing goes for the Bay Area. The place has gridlock traffic and simply insane prices for RE, but after the shake-out, it will be the place to be. What wealth can a modern couple with first class degrees create in the toothless desert or central valley? I have friends in both the OC and Santa Clara county who have done very well off of this RE run-up without taking much risk, and it has merely been a third income for them. I’m no where close to the same league myself; I had to move away. I’ve seen this sort of RE swing twice before in the Bay Area, and the Santa Clara county always springs back leaving the flakes and scammers with little more than a reversible screw driver to remove that California license plate.
It’s getting tougher to get mortgage loans, and houses are NOT appraising for what the sellers have them listed for. Lenders will soon REQUIRE 20% down, just to cover what the house will lose in the next couple of years.This is going to get very very very ugly.
I couldnt agree more. I now so many people here in the OC that are over extended. When one credit card does not work at Starbucks, they just pull out another!!
“When one credit card does not work at Starbucks, they just pull out another!!”
Now that is funny!
If this site is any indication of how fast information can travel the rest of the country is in for a BIG SHOCK come summer. Anyone ever hear of the rule of 27? You tell one person and in a few days 27 people know about your information. Hell-O buyers and SO-Long Sellers!!
I am sorry. - IMHO certain well meaning people, no matter what facts suggest will not change hi/her mind! This phenomena is known as cognitive dissonance. And it happens on this blog with many posters who maintain unreasonable beliefs in the light of convincing dissent.
actually cognitive dissonance is the result of contracdictory facts and beliefs.
Sooner or later one or the other gives out.
“Fifty-three percent of those polled in Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties said clogged freeways and sky-high home prices have them thinking about the color of the grass on the other side of the East Bay hills, according to the survey conducted by the Bay Area Council.”
It’s usually brown…
“The inventory of homes for sale could swell as new homes nearing completion come on the market, and as home owners who believe mortgage rates will head higher rush to list houses before financing tightens, said Bob Edelstein, co-chair of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.”
Why is he worried mortgage rates will head higher? Just because interest rates are at their lowest level for the past forty years doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t keep falling, does it?
Nope! They could go lower when the bubble pops because of all the flight to quality. I have felt they would rise for some time but I have also been bearish on real esate for 2 years now.
good?
No I don’t think it would be good. It might prolong the bubble from popping even longer. I personally think rates going a little higher might be good.
People in New England can keep warm all winter stealing and burning “For Sale” signs. Phoenix; shanty towns of nailed together “Price Reduced” placards spring up in the outskirts. Los Angeles; taking advantage of the recent rains college students launch their boat made entirely out of real estate materials down the LA River.
I love the visual imagery!
why is UK only off 5% after 18 months ?
think of the data coming from an entity like nar.
and just why do these spinners think that affordable housing is such a bad thing?
a thousand gnats in their camel saddles……..
I have to say, I think real estate is in for a hard landing. However! Where I live, in Burlingame, CA it is not happening yet. I am reading about RE softening, but here prices are still going over asking - and they’re absurd to begin with. I see no increase in inventory, although DOM seems to be increasing for some properties. Properties are either sold immediately over asking, or languish on the market for a few months (but in the end they are still getting very close to asking price). On those houses, I think sellers are holding out for some idiot who thinks it’s actually worth the price they’re asking. I guess it’s working so far. This area is full of educated people so I don’t know what they’re thinking buying at these prices - $2 mil for a 3k sq. ft. house on a 6k lot. Someday, when they’re underwater, they’re going to feel pretty stupid.
At $666/SF, that’s less than last spring when they were averaging about $750/SF there.
bengaluru is on the high..but market could be very tough..w/ US recession and worldwide realestate meltdown, bengaluru’s demise is not far off…all those venkats and attalurus, better be damn careful
Just one observation from San Francisco. I don’t see that house prices are going down and that market is cooling.
For example, friend of mine sent me link to this dump:
Here is link:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1054396561
How do you LOL nevermind. I really don’t want to know the answer.
colon either side of lol
LOL; like that
or like that :LOL
Sorry, should have said colon ‘:’ both sides of lol (no caps).
How depressing! Almost looks like a dog house. Would feel like you were in a jail being surrounded by all the brick.
LOL, that is in Hunters Point, the area is a toilet. The sad part, that house will most likely sell at asking.
Yer kidding right, who in their right mind spends half a mil for that. Id rather live in compton for half a mil
The market is changing in SF - just more slowly than other areas.
There are more “For Sale” signs than I’ve seen in years and places are sitting for months. Those indicators were not evident last summer.
Something’s got to give, as greater fools are in ever shorter supply (but this being California, one can never tell for sure).
Actually it’s likely that the house is on the historic register. After the 1906 earthquake thousands of houses of that type were put up for temporary shelter. There are only a few of them left.
michikaboula…
If you look up your city on ziprealty, you’ll notice that there are 52 properties for sale. If you happen to do a ’show reduced’ search on your city, you’ll notice that 9 properties come up.
This one, MLS #: 564850, has been on the market for 118 days, and the price was REDUCED from $950,000 to $900,000. That’s a $50,000 price cut.
Most of the listings in Burlingame have just recently hit the market.
The ones that were there before aren’t moving.
It’s happening in Burlingame, too.
Patience.
plenty of places are sitting and sitting in Burlingame. Some idiot usually comes along eventually though… Still, you can’t deny prices are off maybe 10%
Hey “Bitch!” -
What happened with your lowball!
OT:
Hilarious, the extent to which people go to excuse themselves:
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/133864340.html
Quote: “Long story short, I put in the offer and locked it up under my name so it wouldn’t be picked up by another investor.”
place looks like a dump. couldn’t pay me to live there.
I saw that ad somewhere else I’m trying to remember if it was for that same property. I find it hard to believe that guy is a realtor.
He’s probably not a realtor, but thinks he is.
(I wouldn’t want to live there either - those walls make it look like a prison; all that’s missing is the barbed wire)
love that ‘low maintenance landscaping’…it’s friggin rock & dirt. And this area–local rag ran an article couple o weeks ago about people driving 1- 1 1/2 hrs each way commute. GAG.
That kind of landscaping is perfect scorpion habitat, and that desert terrain has some very big, nasty, and poisonous scorpions that prowl around even without subsidized housing. Low maintenance may mean those who get too close are stung and hospitalized?
Does anyone know what a house valued at 205,000 and a closing cost of 6000 would be for a payment with no down? This is a deal that my ex-wife is getting , hope she enjoys it.
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/13980047.htm
Housing market in Shanghai collapses
American homeowners wondering what follows a housing bubble can look to China’s largest city.
Once one of the hottest markets in the world, sales of homes have virtually halted in some areas of Shanghai, prompting developers to slash prices and real estate brokerages to close thousands of offices.
For the first time, homeowners here are learning what it means to have an upside-down mortgage — when the value of a home falls below the amount of debt on the property. Recent home buyers are suing to get their money back. Banks are fretting about a wave of default loans.
Shanghai’s housing bust comes after a doubling of prices in the previous three years, a run-up fueled by massive speculation. With China’s economy booming and Shanghai at the center of worldwide attention, investors from Hong Kong, Taiwan and elsewhere were buying as fast as buildings were going up. At least 30 percent to 40 percent of homes sold were bought by speculators, says Zhang Zhijie, a real estate analyst at Soufun.com Academy, a research group in Shanghai.
“Ordinary people had no option but to follow the trend,” Zhang said.
Oh Auction your so negative that won’t happen here. Your just a bitter renter. Our country is different everyone wants to live here. Didn’t you read what the latest analyst said were going to get 20% appreciation this year. Wait till the spring you’ll see. *snicker*
‘“Ordinary people had no option but to follow the trend,” Zhang said.’
I think Zhang’s cousin lives in San Diego…
Somewhere in the heart of Shanghai…
…there’s probably a guy named ‘Auction Heaven in ‘06′…
…and he’s probably buying a very, very nice house right now.
By the way, if you happen to know any Asian-Americans who are currently talking about buying a house this Spring-
Be a good human and send them that article.
This article is very, very interesting.
It’s from October 21, 2003.
Sound familiar, anyone?
http://english.people.com.cn/200310/21/eng20031021_126509.shtml
Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, October 21, 2003
Shanghai housing prices start to sag
After nearly two years of continuous price increases in the local property market, real estate agents in Shanghai say they are starting to see signs of over-supply that should lead to lower prices for both new and second-hand luxury apartments.
After nearly two years of continuous price increases in the local property market, real estate agents in Shanghai say they are starting to see signs of over-supply that should lead to lower prices for both new and second-hand luxury apartments.
Several property agents around town say they have seen a decline in prices of second-hand, high-end apartments, which are priced above 7,000 yuan (US$843) per square meter, or 900,000 yuan per unit.
According to Shanghai Centaline Property Agency, the average contractual cost of a second-hand luxury apartment has dropped 4.8 percent over the past six months to 8,642 yuan per square meter from 9,080 yuan per square meter in April.
Asking prices have slipped from 9,905 yuan per square meter to 8,917 yuan during the period.
Pudong, Changning and Luwan districts have seen a continuous decline in asking prices since March while trading volume plummeted 44 percent in Hongkou District and 67 percent in Xuhui District last month.
“The supply to demand ratio for high-end apartments is about 8 to 1 on the local second-hand housing market,” said Meng Jun, senior manager of Shanghai Stanford Property Co Ltd.
Fang Wanchang, a manager with Midland Shanghai Property Agency, paints an even more negative picture, saying there is only one buyer for every 10 apartments on sale.
Agents worry that many small investors, who buy unfinished apartments to sell upon completion or lease out, will be spooked by the decline and begin a mass selling spree.
“The problem at this time in the market is that there are many short-term investors. They buy and sell, wishing to be rewarded with quick money,” Fang said.
If the market hits a rough stretch, some long-term investors - wishing to pay off bank loans - will also put their properties on sale, further dampening the price, several agents told Shanghai Daily yesterday.
That scenario could also drag down the prices of newly built luxury homes, perhaps as early as next year, the agents said.
Those forecasts seem to contradict figures released by the semi-governmental Shanghai Existing Housing Index Office, which suggest prices actually rose for a 22nd consecutive month in September. The index increased by 1.8 percent last month.
Interresting article in March 1 Los Angeles Times:
Almost-New Homes Hurt Sales of Brand-New Ones
Investors unloading properties are making it tougher for developers to sell their inventories.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-builders1mar01,1,6526065.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true
“Speculators, whose robust purchases made 2005
one of the best years for new-home sales, have
reined in their buying and started selling amid signs
of a housing slowdown. The influx of their almost-new
homes is making it harder for builders to sell brand-new
ones.”
Good luck guy, there are 57 brand new never lived in “re-sales” in Manifee between $400,000 to $500,000, and we haven’t counted the yet-to-be-build models…
Okay, so let’s put an article RIGHT SMACK IN THE MIDDLE of that timeline…
Dated June 8th, 2005…
This one goes out to all those who say crashes take ‘years’ to happen…
http://english.people.com.cn/200506/08/eng20050608_189188.html
Home >> Business
UPDATED: 16:08, June 08, 2005
Expert predicts Shanghai, Beijing’s housing prices to drop 50 pct, 30 pct
Shanghai and Beijing’s housing prices will drop 50 percent and 30 percent respectively, said Yi Xianrong, an expert with the Finance Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in an article published in the 21st Century Economic Herald newspaper on Wednesday.
Since China promulgated a series of new policies to stabilize prices of commercial houses in May, many cities along the Yangtze River delta including Shanghai will be affected, Yi said.
“It is certain that house prices in these cities will slump because house prices there had risen to a high level,” he said.
In contrast, places like Guangzhou, capital of south China’s Guangdong Province, will be slightly influenced because there had been no sharp rises in the prices of commercial houses in the region, he said.
Last month, seven major government ministries jointly issued new housing policies in an attempt to stabilize housing prices. By using taxes and other leverage mechanisms, the new policies discourage speculation and ensure the supply of affordable housing.
Source: Xinhua
Dear National Association of Realtors:
Check-Mate.