“Sellers Are Reducing Unrealistic Prices” In Florida
The Pensacola News Journal reports from Florida. “In a year marked by falling home prices, record-high inventories and shocking property tax hikes, putting a positive spin on the Pensacola area’s 2006 housing market would seem a difficult task.”
“But some local Realtors are…striking a similar theme: ‘Things aren’t that bad, and it’s a great time to buy.’ Veteran Realtor Al Ingram says sellers finally are reducing unrealistic prices for their homes and letting the market price their property.”
“The Escambia-Santa Rosa inventory of unsold homes remains at record levels. At the end of last week, the Pensacola Association of Realtor’s MLS had more than 6,400 homes on the market, and that number excluded houses ‘for sale by owner.’”
“That consistently high number, which has hovered above 6,000 for the past six months, worries Al Muller, co-owner of an independent Pensacola firm that monitors area housing sales.”
“‘The biggest question coming up with people I talk to is, ‘With more than 6,000 homes for sale, just what do those people do when they sell?’ Muller said. ‘How many have left the area because of hurricanes, high insurance rates and property taxes? That’s the critical question.’”
“He points to recent U.S. Census data that show Escambia is one of only two counties in Florida, the other is Monroe, that have shown a net loss in population between 2003 and 2005.”
“Milton Realtor Bill Wallace said that despite the recent fall in home values, he believes prices remain high, and need to pull back even more.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Residential construction is slowing here and across the country, and layoffs have been thinning the ranks of home builders everywhere, raising fears of a job bust that could ripple through the rest of the economy.”
“‘The housing souffle has finished baking and is out of the oven and cooling quickly,’ said Sean Snaith, a UCF economist.”
“For Metro Orlando, Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake counties, Snaith projects that construction employment will experience rare, year-over-year declines beginning in the third quarter of next year before turning positive in the second quarter of 2008. He expects much of the same thing to happen statewide. The housing boom of recent years was never sustainable, said Snaith.”
“The phone has been ringing lately at Terry’s Electric in Kissimmee, and many of the calls have been from electricians looking for work now that home building in the area has started to slacken.”
The News Press. “Home construction across Southwest Florida has slowed dramatically in the past few months. In October, Lee County builders pulled 698 home construction permits in October, less than half the 1,409 pulled a year ago.”
“When housing slows, furniture sales typically begin to slow three to six months later, said Barry Edelman, general manager of Havertys in Fort Myers. ‘I think everyone has seen it drop off,’ said Edelman.”
“John Munzenrieder has seen plenty of ups and downs while running a furniture store chain for 23 years. But he’s finishing his final ride on that roller coaster. Munzenrieder announced that his stores across Southwest Florida would close.”
“Warren Jalving, president of La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries in Fort Myers, said November and January tend to be the busiest months locally, and November has been ‘difficult, very difficult.’ ‘We sort of got spoiled and now it’s back to reality,’ said Jalving, who has had a local store for 18 years.”
‘In the past decade, Florida has experienced slower growth in enrollment, but this year marks the smallest increase in more than two decades. Nearly half, 29 of the 67 Florida school districts, saw a decline in enrollment this year, according to state figures. Collier County isn’t alone. Monroe, Madison, Franklin and Glades counties had the biggest decline in students, losing 3 to 11 percent of their enrollment compared to last year. Trimble also blames the lack of growth on high insurance and high housing costs.’
‘Atlanta is increasing its share of young professionals faster than any metropolitan area in the country, and South Florida is one of the top places that it is taking young professionals away from, according to a study. Most 24- to 35-year-old young professionals who moved to Atlanta from other parts of the country came from the New York City area, but the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area ranked second, with more than 3,600 people in that age range leaving South Florida to move north. they chose Atlanta because it was considered diverse, affordable and had plenty of professional and social opportunities.’
Monroe county is an interesting county that is made up entirely of the Florida Keys. I can sure see people moving out of the Keys after all the recent hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005.
The county starts off just south of Dade county (Miami) and goes on down through Marathon, Key Largo, and on to Key West.
atlanta data is till 2000? data need to be revised.
well, isn’t this a big surprise for FL? CA next? Phoenix and Vegas to follow? Flippers flopping. Get out the frying pan. We’re ready for a floppin’ fish fry.
Yeah, no surprise here. Everything that made FL attractive in the past has been destroyed by this bubble. With high housing, skyrocketing insurance premiums, high prop. tax rate, incresed number of hurricanes, and low paying jobs, who would conclude that FL has a bright future?
Unfortunately, this is already happening in the Carolinas, particularly in the Upstate. We see too many houses in the $300,000 to $700,000 range in an area where the average income is araound $46,000. Of course those prices are for 2500+ sf with large lots, and look good to people who are used to paying over a million for comparable. Most houses being built up are either at the very high end or tiny crappy starter homes that will probably fall apart in less than 20 years.
so are the re agents buying ? or lying
Lying, as usual. The middle-class exodus in SoFlo has begun in earnest.
“‘Atlanta is increasing its share of young professionals faster than any metropolitan area in the country, and South Florida is one of the top places that it is taking young professionals away from,”
I must have started a trend, when I moved from Boca Raton to North GA. SSShhhhhh. Don’t tell anyone else, I’d prefer that tthe rest of the S. Floridians stay there!
Oh, no, I’m telling EVERYONE!!! So Florida can get rid of all those pump and dump S. Floridians and others who thought this was the promised land.
Seriously, though, Georgia, along with the Carolinas, has been picking up the Florida exodus population. I don’t envy thoses states.
“Residential construction is slowing here and across the country, and layoffs have been thinning the ranks of home builders everywhere, raising fears of a job bust that could ripple through the rest of the economy. ‘The housing souffle has finished baking and is out of the oven and cooling quickly,’ said Sean Snaith, a UCF economist.”
Souffles are prone to collapsing.
“Souffles are prone to collapsing.”
Amen, Stucco. What I don’t understand is all the doom and gloom about construction slowing down. First of all, we can’t just build until every square inch of the planet is paved over and since there is only a finite amount of land and a finite number of buyers, it’s gotta slow, sooner or later. That’s just the way it is.
“What I don’t understand is all the doom and gloom about construction slowing down.”
Could it be related to the fact that the last four times residential construction went into recession, so did the rest of the US economy? (This record stretches back thirty years…)
What came first, construction slowdown or general jobs in the slow down? I think it was jobs first, and interest rates in Florida in 1971 were low.
The “UHaul index” still shows more demand for moves out of Florida. Renting a 26 foot truck one-way from Sarasota to Raleigh, NC on December 14 (arbitrary date) will cost you $1331. Renting one for a Raleigh to Sarasota move will cost you just $500.
Happiness is Florida in our rear view mirror.
Being a native Floridian, born in Orlando in ‘56′ I would tell folks that I was there way before Walt Disney, who by the way was buying land for a $100 an acre in another name in the early 60″s. Florida has been up and down so many times. The Cocoa Beach Area almost collapsed in 1971 when NASA laid off and all the contracters did as well. Then Fort Lauderdale in 1976 exploaded with Condo’s starting at $20,000 and prices would go up daily. The prices in the last go round was due to speculation and foreign money investment. The prices again did not reflect personal income for the workers. Florida has never been an area with high incomes. They have always had terrible schools since so many folks came from the north and already paid high school taxes for their own children.Remember, there always were hurricanes! Especially, at the University of Miami.
I was at an outdoor event on Saturday, south of Palm Bay (south Brevard County, Florida), and overhead two regular participants in a very lively discussion about how awful the housing market is at present. Both appeared surprised, even though one said that a friend or neighbor has been trying to sell their home for more than a year with no action at all. I see these folks regularly, so didn’t offer my unsolicited views or questions about the price(s). On the way there, I also noticed a few formerly for-sale spec homes that now are for rent.
Hi Chip,
Driving by did you happen to gauge first hand the state Palm Bay was in? I check frequently and the listing prices seem to be plummeting! Either it the bubble was much worse on the east coast than in Orlando, or Brevard is just ahead of the curve.
OrlandoRenter — sorry, just got in from a long day away from the computer. No, I didn’t check Palm Bay further, but your research probably tells you what it’s like. My wife found a listing of a pretty nice-looking 3,4000 s.f. house in a nice-seeming neighborhood in Viera that just dropped from $539K to $399K, a 25% cut in one whack. I expect that it will sell, either at that price or around $375K; then the neighbors will have to think long and hard about how determined they are to sell. There are way too many rental properties available, so converting to rental is not a good option, IMO.
I think it’s the latter. Brevard County didn’t start going up in price until after Orlando did. So I expect it to drop first. Check out the Brevard MLS website:
http://www.brevardmls.com
Prices also seem to be plummeting in Titusville and Rockledge.
Keep an eye on the Construction Employment numbers. The economists are beginning to report seeing no big drops in employment; but WE know half the construction workers were undocumented aliens who are not counted as “employed persons” or who are paid as 1099 contractors, not employees.
The layoff of these housing workers will be felt by the local economies, even if the local unemployment data does not indicate a reduction in employment. gordo
EXCELLENT point.
Does this artificial hold of employment numbers give the Fed more ammo to resist lowering rates? I’d have thought so.
I know the a number of illegals who have already left for home. I agree. You won’t see any measurable drop in construction jobs for awhile. But you will miss the money those workers put back into the system.
And when unempoyment does start taking out reportable construction jobs all the economists with act so surprised.
We had a report in Cali from farmers that could not find enough help for their fields because their workers had gone into construction. Have seen plenty of examples of this as well.
As to money put back into the economy, I don’t know. There are a lot of immigrants who send a lot of money back home. Some of these workers might be headed back with the bubble exploded.
Most of the plumbers and electricians here are illegal immigrants - jobs that Americans don’t want. LOL great excuses
“I know the a number of illegals who have already left for home. I agree. You won’t see any measurable drop in construction jobs for awhile. But you will miss the money those workers put back into the system.”
Maybe that’s why Wal-Mart’s Black Friday was so weak when all the other retailers apparently did pretty well.
Bill — makes sense to me. Should also show up in fast-food numbers.
I just left South Floroda — for good — on Sunday for west central Florida. The housing maket in Broward, Dade and Palm Beach counties is in for a rough ride. But as for the people who dump on the whole state, think again. Tampa, for a big city, is still reasonably affordable: You can get a new house in the sunburbs for $110 a square foot or so. Anywhere north of Lake Okeechobee is still a decent, affordable place to live. Anything south of Lake O is a SEWER.
I left SoFlo for the Tampa Bay area in 2000. One of the best decisions I ever made. However, though housing prices might be relatively cheap here compared to SoFlo, there’s still that pesky insurance problem that seems to cancel out the lower housing prices. Still, beats the heck out of SoFlo, I must admit.
In Orlando yesterday, an old family friend told me that a neighbor, inside the Orlando city limits, had an insurance premium increase of $3,000. Trouble is, and I confirmed this with my son, an insurance agent here, that much an increase in the neighborhood involved here in central Florida, is almost impossible. Fish tales have been replaced by insurance tales and the effect likely will be to drive even more people away, or keep them away.
My insurance in Tampa is one-third of what it was in South Florida. For better coverage. Am I getting trounced by the taxes in Hillsborough County because my taxes were capped in South Flo? For sure. But for quality of life, there’s no comparison. We have amusement parks, beautiful beaches and gorgeous open space.
FJW — LOL — “sunburbs” — great typo. Florida builders/promoters ought to coin it.
Florida sucked b/4 the housing bubble and now it sucks even more.
You know, this is one of those comments that I just can’t agree with.
I for one, love living in S. FL. I moved here from sub-urban Philly, and cannot imagine going back to the cold. S. FL certainly has its charms, the most enticing being the warm weather all year long.
That said, I cannot imagine why some people want to live here. Don’t make at least 100K a year HH? Don’t come, it sucks. Not in good/great shape? Don’t come, it sucks. Older? Don’t come it sucks.
I cannot, for the life of me, imagine wanting to retire anywhere south of about Port St. Lucie (on the east coast anyway, I don’t travel enough to the west coast to know what I am talking about). Traffic is insane where I live (WPB) and just gets worse the further south you go. People are rude, everyone is very “fake”, the rich rule, etc. I cannot, for the life of me, understand why people working at WallMart are not leaving this area in droves. This is really an area for the young, monied (not necessarily rich, but at least comfortable), beautiful people. If that’s not you, this area really sucks (as it did for me when I first got here making 1/4th what I do now).
S. FL has its charms. However, I just don’t know why people keep trying to change it into something its not (or is not anymore). It’s not a sleepy area. Don’t move to NYC and complain about cogestion and how rude people are. It’s known for that! As S. FL soon will be.
This is the path that S. FL is on right now. Will it pan out? I don’t know. What I do know is that retirees are moving further and futher north every year, so their money is not coming here anymore. And professionals (yuppies) are being priced out in droves as the housing booms out of control. The taxes are nuts, insurance crazier, and the whole system has the feel of collapse written all over it down here. Save our homes needs to be abolished (and should be call Fu*k thy neighbor, as that is really the intent of the law), and until something changes, the area is just in a tailspin. People who want to live here can’t. People who want to move north can’t. People can’t make enough money to scratch by. The area has no identity; by trying to be everything to everyone, it has totally lost its course.
I realize that was a total rant.
Please feel free to respond in like format.
Michael Fink, one of my first posts on this blog was a similar rant, so I understand. But, even though I am renting right now, I am a big supporter of SOH.
haha… Well, unfortunately that was not even close to my first post (although, I have not really gone off the deep end before, so maybe I can get a pass?).
I would love to hear why you support SOH. I think that the intent of the law is good, but the execution of the law is horrible. And is SO EASY to change it!!
As it stands, SOH caps the amount of tax increase you can recieve every year on your property to a certain percentage (3%, if I remember). It can only be clamied on a primary residence, and it based totally on the sale price of the home (as that pretty much sets FMV at the time of sale, which is the only time that price matters, taxes increase 3% from then on). Sounds like a good idea, right?
Wrong. When you create 2 tiers of taxation, you are going to create a huge problem (remember taxation w/o representation?). You have situations where people living in identical homes, right across the street from one another can have vastly different tax bills (sometimes 2-3X multiples) depending on when the bought the home. But that’s not the real problem.
The real problem is that SOH totally removes any responsiblity from government for spending. If my city wanted to pave the streets in gold, and I know they can’t raise my taxes, why not? There is NEVER an incentive to lower taxes because those who vote (who are, by and large, protected by SOH) don’t give a crap what the taxes are. Govt has absolutely not incentive to lower the millage rate, so those who buy at a higher price are totally fu*ked when it comes to tax burden. And they get to live with that for the life of their property.
How do we fix it? SO EASY. Don’t cap the increase in MY taxes. Cap the increase in the govt spending. Make it so that govt cannot take in more then an additonal 3% a year!! Then take the FMV of everyone’s home and just apply the current millage rate. Done, problem solved, no more crazy taxation; govt spending has been controlled (which is what most people cite as the best reason for SOH). Right now, govt is spending like a crackhead in Colombia in S. FL, and the only people suffering are those who bought in during the boom. Those of us who would like to buy are just screwed until prices come down; as the sale price sets the tax base for the home.
So simple, so elegent, and NEVER going to be done. SOH is the best thing that ever happened to out of control govt spending. They spend like crazy, nobody who votes cares at all.
Sorry, this issue just burns my ass, especially when its SO easy to fix!
I totally agree, that the SOH is totally stupid. People who want to move to Florida can’t because of SOH, and older people who want to downsize can’t.
Why should I pay two or three times for the same house just because I bought at a different time. I am still getting the same services and having to send my kids to the same crappy schools.
The worst example is the older couple who wants to move and cash out from a house on the intercoastal which is now worth $3.5 million that they have owned for say thirty 30 years that originally cost them $200,000 in which the taxes are now about $8,000. They go and find a really really nice condo for $2.4 million but the taxes on the new condo are over $48,000 a year. Now how stupid is that! Even though they will have that big cash profit in the bank why shoud they have to spend it by paying more in taxes for a place that is worth less.
My support for SOH is purely self-interest. Although I rent now, under SOH I didn’t have to worry when values began to skyrocket (artificially). I wasn’t taxed out of house and home. And I don’t see why I should have to suffer because some dickoff paid more for his (similar) house on the same street, especially when that house isn’t worth what he paid. In other words, why should I pay for his stupidity? I have always seen SOH as a hedge against situations exactly like this housing bubble. If people don’t like it, don’t buy in Florida. Just wait until prices come down. They will, eventually, but it is taking a while. And I do agree with you about out of control government spending. Whew! Unreal. Well, gov’ts will soon realize you can’t squeeze blood from a stone. Speaking of fairness, where’s the fairness in providing taxpayer funded services to illegal aliens, who lower wages, strain public services, demand care and education for their children, etc.? Seems to me that it is mainly the developers who have a bee up their butt about SOH (which makes sense, can’t sell their lousy, mass-produced product), while employing illegal alien labor, and then dumping their illegals on the community to take care of. These are the same clowns who howl about impact fees and demand coverage from Citizens Insurance at taxpayer expense, but refuse to contribute to the care of those who enabled them to make obscene profits. Every time I hear complaints about SOH, it sounds like development and construction industry talking points that sound good to the average citizen, until you realize it is really all about moving product and profit for the developers.
Well said Palmetto. I am also in favor of SOH for exactly the reasons you state above.
Thanks, Popper, great minds think alike!
You really don’t get it. SOH or not, your local govt. decides how much money it needs. It then either raises the assessments (where there’s no SOH) or raises the millage (where you have SOH) to obtain the necessary revenue. Your tax bill goes up by about the same amount either way. The real winners are those with coastal properties who see (saw) their values skyrocket. The losers are Joe Sixpack in his modest blockhouse and Bubba Redneck in his single-wide. Let’s stick it to the little guys even more.
SOH is a very bad law. It is a Ponzi scheme just like social security created and yearly expanded by the so called “Greatest Generation” to protect themselves. My vote goes to those who fought the Civil War but the book was selling to those complemented.
Medicare which helps to allow a horrendous 16% of GDP spent on medical expenses mainly for the elderley is another example of the young being taken advantage of by their grandparents and parents generation. We spend 3.6% of GDP on defense and the war.
There is a geriatric time bomb overhanging realestate as the older beneficiaries of SOH pass away and their kids inherit the properties. The taxes will get reset and the kids will have to sell out pressuring home prices.
Some bloggers have correctly pointed out the further problem with SOH in that it allows politicians to over spend. More importantly is that it is simply not just. Why should one group benefit from higher home valuations and yet not be taxed at the rate of the people paying the higer home prices?
Does a widow paying higher taxes in a house that is increasing in value have more rights then a family with a child attempting to secure a home?
The reason all of the advantages have been given the “Greatest Generation” at the expense of their kids and grandkids is that they along with the AARP vote themselves the benefits. Sometimes I think they should be called “Greadiest Generation”.
How would you oldsters (I am 58) on this blog feel if you were starting out today? You get to buy an inflated house price verses your income. Your wife must work depriving your kids of a full time mom. You contribute to a social system that benefits the elderly and deprives your children of a good education.
Meanwhile people living in homes with huge gains gripe about their taxes. Those same people think it is their god given right to a huge sale price on their inflated home. Surely they must see they are trying to have things both ways n their favor verses those that follow.
The current economy looks like a casino of speculation as people dive into stocks, risky bonds and over priced realestate. Many of the young people of our country do not have hope so they gamble with their future. There is a nihilist streak in their views. The gothic dressed youth at the mall is making a statement about how he consciously or uncosciously sees his future.
A huge living standard decline in our nation has been partially masked by debt and it is probably now coming unraveled. This is not about buying a house for 40% off the high tic price.
It is about the destruction (I hope temporarily) of the American dream.
I live in S. F. also, and am not sure I agree with you entire rant, but some of it is certainly true. I do think the “bursting” is going to make it more affordable (it already is) but the weather is great, and if you like boating/diving it is still one of the more affordable areas you can live/work in. Just my .02
I relocated back to S.F because I love the weather here. But, I don’t intend to buy property. It’s too expensive, and I would rather rent and save. I’ll retire elsewhere too, where it’s more affordable. Even with the slump, many homeowners are not reducing prices, and in fact, some asking prices include 15% per year increases. Folks in S. F. are very greedy and the corruption is terrible. But if you rent (and there are some deals) its worth being here.
I wonder whether the real effect of SOH is to, quite undesirably, create volatility in the market. Conversely, I think it might by myopic to state that it advantages current homeowners while penalizing future ones. For what we are seeing is an unintended consequence. While protecting current homeowners and penalizing future ones, the penalty has become so great for future homeowners that the opportunity cost of ownership, because of SOH, is prohibitive. Thus, the only way that current owners can take advantage of their savings is to lose their equity through lower prices. So, the market goes up temorarily until it becomes prohibitive to own anew, at which point property values decrease in order to compensate.
This policy appears to be, as the behavioral economist might put it, myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization.
I feel for you. I left Florida in 1980. I was living in Plantation, my husband was a new Grad from University of Florida(Go Gators) in 1976. First job was with Motorola. We left because we could not afford to buy a house. Starting salary was $16,000 as an engineer. After 3 years he was making $19,000, still could not afford a house. Moved to Lynchburg Va. bought a house. Young folks will leave just like we did. Renting works for a while, but most of us want to own our own home. After the tax breaks Motorola left as well. Beware of you community when they give out tax breaks for businesses. Buildings are throw aways, designed that way. I think the new areas will be in the fly over areas, Everyone can afford to live there.
Michael — have you ever walked down Worth Avenue (the Rodeo Drive of Palm Beach)? Rich friends of ours dragged us there and we’ve never felt so out of place. The cheapest store on the strip was Brooks Brothers and it seemed like K-Mart in comparison to the others. Couldn’t afford anything in those places and wouldn’t pay that kind of money. Good for those who can, I suppose, but I couldn’t get out of there fast enough.
Yup, I live about 2 miles from Worth ave right now.
It’s a totally insane place, where really rich people go to “Show what they are Worth” (which is actually the motto that surrounds that whole area). I like going there to see the jewlery (ever see a 20ct yellow diamond? I have, it seems like they are common when you walk up and down the street there) and clothes (how about a 25K dress that I would not let my cat use a scratching post for fear of blinding him because its so ugly). It’s really neat to see, obviously not so neat to shop there.
I love living in Palm Beach, it’s a real blast, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out why most of the people I see here continue to live here. Especially those who are pissed about the cost of everything (housing excluded, I am pissed about that too) and how “fake” the area is. That’s what you sign up for when you come to Palm Beach.
I live in Tampa, but interviewed for a job in WPB a few years ago. I was almost immediately uncomfortable with the people and the area, but the feeling obviously was mutual, as I was not offered the job. What’s up with the bad, expensive restaurants? I had two meals there, and each one was New York City price without New York City quality.
Palm Beach County is the PITS. Case in point: The weather. Some people say it’s good. Are you NUTS?!?! Dreadfully humid all year round (You sweat putting up Christmas lights. How unnatural is THAT? Your HAlloween pumpkin only lasts two days because of the heat. Your Christmas tree is already dried out when you get it from Lowe’s. (Oh, yeah, great family tradition: Picking out Christmas trees on one of the few dirt lots that haven’t been paved over.) On my way out of Boca Raton FOR GOOD yesterday, two guys with Brooklyn acents were arguing over a parking space. How typically pathetic of South Florida!
I much prefer Newport Beach to West Palm Beach, nicer people, more beautiful landforms, less classist and gaudy than WPB. I find worth av to be the epitome of nouveau riche taste.
SOH - it is good for those who are permanent residents. Home prices have soared because of the big spenders forcing prices up. Permanent residents have mean income of $26,000 or so and there is not affordable housing or they are on fixed incomes in that range or less.
Those who commute to Florida for the winter make a whole hecka of lot more and if they want lower taxes make Florida their permanent home. And stop pushing home prices through the roof.
The other example was the old couple who wants to move from the coast - they can sell and move and with new address now their permanent address = they have homestead and SOH to help them with lower taxes
I do not feel sorry for those who this is their second home. If they are forced out then home prices might become affordable and under $100,000 again so us locals might buy a home.
“When housing slows, furniture sales typically begin to slow three to six months later, said Barry Edelman, general manager of Havertys in Fort Myers. ‘I think everyone has seen it drop off,’ said Edelman.”
I sell furniture for a living and I’m looking for a new job. We used to have former Californians walk in and drop 40K in one afternoon, now somedays we don’t have a single person come into the store.
I haven’t been at it very long. Took the job after my last job got sent offshore. Coworkers say they haven’t seen it this quiet ever.
We used to have former Californians walk in and drop 40K in one afternoon, now somedays we don’t have a single person come into the store.
And it ain’t ever gonna change.
This bubble was a once in a lifetime deal engineering by Greenspan and his banker buddies to loot the system with the ruse of recession from 9/11.
It was also demographically fueled by greedhead equity locust boomers sellin’ to dumb “gotta have it all now” Gen X, Y, Z’ers via the toxic loan process.
You’ll never again have all the ingrediants coming together for this Perfect Economic Storm.
It will be interesting to see what domestic employment sector is going to absorb the masses who are going to be without work as the housing collapse picks up steam.
The new “new deal”.
The armed services may be one area we need more “employees”.
“It will be interesting to see what domestic employment sector is going to absorb the masses who are going to be without work as the housing collapse picks up steam.”
War/bird flu/terrorism - to wipe out the ‘no longer necessary’ surplus population that inflates along with the debt.
As a true member of Gen X, I could not agree more with you hd74man.
“…dumb “gotta have it all now” Gen X, Y, Z’ers via the toxic loan process.”
We seem to believe that this is how it really is. Our attention spans are too short, and historic precedence is ignored. Luxury car and home by age 30, designer clothes and accessories, $3 cups of coffee, and all while making $60-75K a year. No wonder my 80 year old grandparents just shake their heads in confusion.
“You’ll never again have all the ingrediants coming together for this Perfect Economic Storm.”
Never is a VERY long time. Sooner or later, history will repeat itself.
“‘How many have left the area because of hurricanes, high insurance rates and property taxes? That’s the critical question.’”
But we were assured by Mr. Lereah that Florida is the California of the 21st century. He couldn’t possibly be wrong yet again, could he?
He is either going to be right or wrong. When market is going down it is hard to say it is going to go up unless you know something we don’t and he doesn’t. So he is wrong again.
Yes, Lerah is wrong. The Carolinas are the California of the 21st century.
He is either going to be right or wrong. When market is going down it is hard to say it is going to go up unless you know something we don’t and he doesn’t. So he is wrong again. does no squat
‘Yes, Lerah is wrong. The Carolinas are the California of the 21st century.’
That is quite possible at least regarding N Carolina. The varied and beautiful landscape, climate, higher education is hard to beat on the east coast. More and more folks from the northeast, midwest and Florida are finally waking up to that..
“More and more folks from the northeast, midwest and Florida are finally waking up to that..”
John — unfortunately for you, assuming you live there and like it the way it is, is that when these people arrive, they will will start attending commission meetings and trying to change things.
Outside of Raleigh, try finding a decent paying job in North Carolina. Unemployment is at record highs in the Greensboro/Winston-Salem area. Good jobs are non-existent in the eastern and western parts of the state. Great place to live — if you don’t have to worry about making a living. And, honestly, they STILL don’t like Northerners there. They want Yankees to visit, spend money and go home.
Ummm….where do you get your unemployment statistics exactly? As of September 2006 the unemployment rate in Greensboro/High Point/Winston Salem according to the Department of Labor was 4.7%……..record highs??
If you count all the crap jobs slinging hash to tourists at bthe Waffle House, sure it’s 4.7 percent. But look at all the furniture industry jobs — GONE. Perhaps I should have said “underemployment” is at all-time highs. I spend a lot of time there and losten to the locals talk. The “good” jobs are pumping out septic tanks or cleaning new houses before the SUCKAS from up north move in.
Interesting viewpoint…….I’ve lived here for a year now and I don’t see what you see……go figure, maybe I just see the glass as half full. People are nice, pace of life suits me fine and cost of living is way down. Don’t need to make 120K like I did in FL. To each his own I guess.
Lee county FL is the place to live in FL. Here in CC waterfront house across street from me is selling for 229k, an unheard of price two years ago when it was flipped for 289k.
My insurance is 100 a month, my taxes are 90 a month on accessed value of 139k. House worth 189k now and dropping… Still a nice, warm place to live and work.
CC is a dump!!!!!!!!!!
I live in the Lake Nona area and there are no signs of price decreases. I follow this area (not housing at the Country Club) as well as Avalon Park. All I see are $10k price cuts on $550k houses. These houses will stay on the market for 180+ days and then they will deactivate them and put them up with another realtor.
I’ve noticed this about Orlando in general as well. Prices are very sticky and properties are still selling, though very slowly (especially when you consider the increased inventory). I think that Orlando could be one of the last bastions of hope for the speculators who’ve found relatively cheap and stable prices here. They’ll be in hot water soon enough though, I get the feeling that Orlando is just a bigger ship to turn around than some of the less populated coastal bubble zones. If prices don’t show signs of dramatic decreases soon, I for one will have no plans of ever buying here.
I agree. I moved down from New York about 20 months ago and if things don’t start moving in the next 18 months, I will not be buying here either. Problem is, I already have two kids and plan to have a 3rd around this time in 2008. (yeah, call me pyscho…I have all this planned out) Not sure that we have the room to still rent an apartment with 5 of us in there. If we have to, we will make due as I don’t want to plunk money down for a house only to be in a $100k hole 6 months later. Maybe we will look to rent a house at that time. Just hope I don’t have to make the decision and the market will take care of itself.
Very recently I’ve started noticing sizable price drops in my zip code (32828 - Waterford Lakes). For example, last week a 2000 sq ft “waterfront” home dropped its listing to $250k (this was probably its third price drop). Three days later it was gone. A house like that would have easily gone for $300k last year. There are several others of similar size listed for $270-280.
Don’t get me wrong. I still think those prices are way too much. And I fully intend to keep renting for a while. But the tide is turning. Prices are definitely dropping. And a handful of GF’s out there are doing their part to set comps lower and lower.
Correction - $270k-280k.
I live in the Lake Nona area and there are no signs of price decreases. I follow this area (not housing at the Country Club) as well as Avalon Park. All I see are $10k price cuts on $550k houses. These houses will stay on the market for 180+ days and then they will deactivate them and put them up with another realtor. See the same exact house next door sell for $470k, make sure that you list yours for $660k. Idiots. (apologies if this is getting posted twice)
‘Beware of you community when they give out tax breaks for businesses. Buildings are throw aways, designed that way. I think the new areas will be in the fly over areas, Everyone can afford to live there.’
The job and population growth in the large Texas markets like Houston or Austin is incredible. Lots of corporate relos, lower cost of doign business and very affordable housing with McMansion type homes still starting at 120-130k in the burbs as huge drivers from the stupidity of the credit/housing bubble and phoney unsustainable ‘boomers cashing in their chips’ economies along the coasts especially in AZ and FL..
Still spouting the same tired crap, I see. How many houses do YOU own in Texas since you’ve been yacking about this for two years now?
You the person who hasn’t owned property since 1989 giving real estate advice to anyone? And didn’t see real estate opportunities while working for the RTC back in the early 90’s.. Talk about crap.lol Yea the sky is falling everywhere and you’ll live in your apartment and day trade for pennies the rest of your life.. I hope the younger folks patiently waiting in our bubble markets don’t take you advice to heart and sit on the sidelines for the rest of their life.. Only the best Karen. Health comes first you know. Hope things are going well.
Unfortunately, it looks like the exodus is headed toward Carolinas. Too many newer houses built and selling for $300,000 to $800,000. Five years ago, these type houses were selling for $175,000 to $250,000. Average family income in my area runs around $46,000, so where are the buyers coming from? You guessed it.
try tracking some lots on ebay=wow
they’re coming down fast
Realtors’ quotes:
“1,000 people move to Florida per day”
“Indefinite price increase”
…
Even tourism is down, for the first time since 9/11. I think my state has the clap.
One More Time:
In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.
‘’South Florida,’’ he said, ‘’is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.’’
“Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms”, by Motoko Rich and David Leonhardt (New York Times, March 25, 2005)