“Be Patient, And Steer Clear Of Idaho”
The Tucson Citizen reports from Arizona. “The real estate dip put the brakes on the downtown 44 Broadway Lofts project this year, but the developers expect to start looking for condo buyers in the next few weeks in the former federal courthouse annex. Managing partners Ron Schwabe and James LeBeau opened a sales office with a splash on the July 4th holiday, but that coincided with the slump in housing prices.”
“‘We just kind of pulled back,’ said Schwabe. ‘In the next few weeks, we’ll know more about our pricing.’”
“Realtor Susan Cassidy took down a couple hundred names of people, but has not entered into any contract talks with potential condo buyers in the vacant concrete-and-steel building. ‘The developer never really decided they wanted to take reservations,’ Cassidy said.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “The chill in the air is not just from the weather. New figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight show a definite cooling of home prices in Arizona.”
“‘There are still some areas where appreciation rates remain very high,’ Agency director James Lockhart said. ‘But now they are the exception rather than the norm.’”
“One of those areas is Flagstaff. Prices increased nearly 3 percent in the last quarter and by close to 22 percent since the same time last year. The continued increase in Flagstaff is bad news for those hoping to find affordable housing in the area, according to Helen Hudgens Ferrell, the executive director of Both Hands Inc., which deals with housing and shelter issues.”
“‘I was certainly hoping it would cool down like the rest of the state and the country,’ she said. The problem, said Hudgens Ferrell, is land, the lack of it. She said the community is more or less landlocked, with little available private land on its boundaries for new homes.”
“And complicating the problem of available housing for Flagstaff residents is that perhaps a quarter of the houses are second homes for those living elsewhere.”
“She said some firms have even taken to hiring buses to bring in workers from Winslow, where homes are more affordable.”
The Salt Lake Tribune from Utah. “Nancy Cygan is home-shopping in Salt Lake City this week, wedged between two worlds. Her house in the Chicago suburb of Roselle, listed at $369,900, has been shown only once since May. Then there is Utah.”
“‘I never thought, leaving Chicago, that I would not be able to afford something comparable in Salt Lake City,’ Cygan said.”
“Three years ago, Utah’s housing market was the weakest in the nation. Today, it is second only to Idaho. Home prices in Utah rose 17.4 percent during the three-month period ending Sept. 30 compared to a year ago, according to statistics released Wednesday by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.”
“It was only a matter of time before Utah caught up, Salt Lake City economist and Zions Bank consultant Jeff Thredgold. said. But going from dead last to No. 2 is ‘amazing,’ he said, noting Utah does not attract the same level of speculation as places like Nevada and Arizona.”
“Rather, housing prices here are a reflection of a raging economy, a tight labor market and a steady flow of newcomers, he said. ‘People have been cashing out in places like San Diego and Phoenix and going to Boise, Salt Lake and Twin Falls where they can get twice the house for half as much money,’ Thredgold said.”
“‘But someone in Austin or Atlanta would be stunned at what they would have to pay to live in Salt Lake City,’ he said. Or, say, someone in Logan.”
“Jeremy Pugh and wife started scouting for a home in Sugar House. ‘I was like, ‘Whoa, are you kidding me?’ There were these bungalows and they were cute, but they were teeny. We finally upped our price range.’”
“They sold their home in Logan for $140,000 and paid $260,000 for a 1914 Victorian in Sugar House. ‘We now have twice the house payment for a smaller home,’ Pugh said. ‘We bought high, basically, and we’re just hoping our value will continue to appreciate.’”
“Don’t count on it, says Salt Lake City real estate agent Bob Plumb. The market already is softening, Plumb said, and while some of the slowdown is seasonal, sellers aren’t as brazen as they were six months ago. ‘Sellers used to just add 5 to 10 percent onto the value and get it,’ Plumb said. ‘Now pricing is a little more critical.’”
“Real estate agent Joan Taylor echoed Plumb, saying it used to be that houses registered to be part of a home tour would sell before the tour began. Which is why she’s advising her sister, Nancy Cygan of Chicago, to be patient, and to steer clear of Idaho.”
Just to show how behind the times these OFHEO numbers are:
‘Home prices in Palm Beach County took their first quarterly plunge in nearly a decade, a government agency said Thursday. The change in home prices from July through September entered the minus column for the first time since 1997, falling 0.5 percent from the second quarter of this year, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said.’
Flagstaff SF homes for sale:
‘PRICE REDUCED! $459,000 Great Buy! Wonderful Country Club Home! 2426 Sq. ft. 3bd/2ba. A MUST SEE!’
‘ Reduced! $234k. 3br/ 2ba, stainless steel stove & dishwasher, drywall thru-out’
‘ Reduced Price! 2700 sqft Country Club home, now $545k.’
‘Newly constructed in Ponderosa trails, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, every up grade, granite kit, hard wood floors, stone thru out, 3 car gar, nice lot on quiet street, $615,000.’
‘Brand New, never lived in 2006 Clayton 3bd/ 2ba, 28×60, home & lot. Christmas Estates. Stem wall, new fence, FSBO. REDUCED.’
‘ Best Priced Home in Walnut Meadows! $465K 6 Months No Payments!’
‘It’s A Steal! Brand new 4bd/2ba, 2100 sqft, fenced horse property, 2.45 acres, $399,000.’
‘CharmingReduced $21,000 By Owner $299K Close to NAU/Community college 3 bedroom, 1 bath.’
The print version has many more than the online database.
For rent:
‘2bd/1.5ba Townhome, ‘like new,’ vacant. $875/mo.’
‘Newer 4bd/2ba home in Ponderosa Trls, Fncd/Landscaped, $1450 /mo.’
‘Beautiful new 4bd/ 3.5ba, Ponderosa Trails, $2850/mo.’
$2850 a month!!!!! In Flagstaff!!!
Those prices are still insane. It isn’t Aspen for heaven’s sake!
That really sucks for anyone who wants to really live there.
They don’t rent at those prices. I have seen Ponderosa Trail houses listed at just over $1k/mo. Most people in Flag don’t have the incomes to support those levels, even if they wanted to.
That’s what’s so beautifully simple about prevailing rents. Supply, demand and ability to pay. You can’t lever the rent.
Maybe you can figure out some kind of mortgage which is is a loan to pay rents. Loan out 100’s of 1000’s of $ to people to pay their next X decades of rent. I suppose you could somehow spin it as an “investment”, maybe make some good money.
That’s what’s so beautifully simple about prevailing rents. Supply, demand and ability to pay.
You can’t lever the rent. And you can’t specu-rent, as in, “I think I’ll rent an additional house and leave it empty, in case rents rise.” Duh.
“‘I was certainly hoping it would cool down like the rest of the state and the country,’ she said. The problem, said Hudgens Ferrell, is land, the lack of it. She said the community is more or less landlocked, with little available private land on its boundaries for new homes.”
Such typical AZ realtor crapspeak.
Prescott (very similiar to Flagstaff) is “landlocked” with more vacant land listings than residential, and a historically high inventory of both. The last comment is telling…”new homes”…which means there is more than plenty re-sale available, but it’s harder for flippers to make money on those, hence the wailing from realtors about no land for “new” homes.
“She said the community is more or less landlocked, with little available private land on its boundaries for new homes.”
I haven’t heard that “landlocked” argument in a while. Makes me feel kinda nostalgic for the good ol’ days of 2005 . . . .
Rents in San Luis have historically been higher than in North and South Counties due to rental demand from CalPoly students/faculty/staff. Now the highest rents on craigslist are in North and South county - pretty much all on houses purchased in the past 1-2 years, but occasionally on older homes that have been spiffed up w/ granite counter-tops, etc. Hard to know if they end up renting out, but I doubt it, as there are still many cheapter places out there. It is freaking locals out, though, as there is the perception that rents are spiraling out of control to match the cost of owning.
This one seem especially choice. An unfinished cabin for $450k. Probably the location is nice, but not so much at that price point.
Unfinished log cabin in Parks AZ, 2 story, 3bd/2ba on 2ac of pines & backs to Nat’l Forest. $450k. FSBO 928-635-9802 [ad runs 11/29/06-12/28/06]
Used to work with a lady who grew up in northern AZ. She said out of town locusts have ruined most of the towns up there. Locals who grew up there can’t afford to live there anymore, so they leave, then local employers have to import labor from cheaper locations. The Naples, Florida effect in Arizona.
There’s no water in Parks…you have to haul it in. Pretty area, but for cryin’ out loud! Any wells are 500 plus ft deep and produce about 1/2 gal per min.
“Just to show how behind the times these OFHEO numbers are: …”
Keep in mind though that the just-released OFHEO numbers are for the third quarter, meaning that it includes data starting the beginning of July - data which is now 5 months old. Not only that, but even if the peak of prices is in quarter N, and prices really start going down during that quarter, then in actuality quarter N+1’s numbers may still be higher than N, since prices were still rising at the beginning of N, and the actual downward trend may not be shown until quarter N+2.
So in this case, even if prices started to fall way back in February (Q1), an actual decline may not show up until the 3Q numbers, released just now late in 4Q!
Because of this the OFHEO numbers aren’t useful to detect the current trends, though the good thing about them is that they normally go back way further than most other numbers (e.g. CAR, NVAR, FAR, etc.), so are a good way to find out just how “bubblicious” a given area is.
Also note that these numbers are only on conforming traditional loans… They do not catch the subprime, ARMed, NoDoc garbage that is really what will bring this market down.
The OFHEO numbers are also skewed upwards by REFI activity, so if REFIs come down the OFHEO numbers may drop faster than actual sales would predict. They document the REFI effect in their reports in the first few pages.
Those numbers are still pretty useful for folks living in non coastal, middle class neighborhoods who intend to sell to regular folks or buy a regular house. Those are the numbers I watch, I’m not interested in catching the peak or the trough, just which way the prevailing winds are blowing. So it takes a quarter or two for them to catch up, what’s the hurry? I’ve been looking at houses for a trade up for 3 years now. It’s nice to see prices coming down.
Yeah Ben, I was just reading some commentary on the street.com that was describing Utah and Ore as the new “hot” housing states based on the OFHEO info.
Does anyone lick their finger and hold it up to the wind anymore?
No - guys like HFA just stick it in their a$$ and then wonder where it went!
ROTFLMAO!
“guys like HFA just stick it in their a$$ and then wonder where it went!”
I nominate this as comment of the day!
Soon they will wind up sticking their heads there as this unravels further.
“…describing Utah and Ore as the new “hot” housing states based on the OFHEO info.”
Based on what is happening in Utah right now, and has happened in every bubble area of the US, I am predicting this thing will not bottom out until at least 2008 possibly 2009. There are tons of FB’s still lining up. And for some reason, the funny money just keeps coming. Until that spigot is shut off, there will always be some McSpecuvestor willing to buy high and lose his a$$. I do believe we have seen the peak of these imbociles, but it is going to take quite a while to purge the market.
Chicagoans priced out of Utah, busloads of workers schlepping it to work in Flagstaff, Idaho the hottest market in the country, dogs and cats living together….Seriously though, how out of whack is the economy when these things are happening? Economic realities of the last 100 years seem to be coming unglued. Not just in housing, either. Would you loan the government your money for 10 years, and accept 4.4% for it? That’s what the bond market is doing. The center, it seems, does not hold.
Economic realty is that mysterious light that is currently speeding towards us in the tunnel…
Maybe it’s another “new paradigm”
diceman: it’s the new paradigm. It really is different this time! What they fail to recognize is that the difference will likely be total chaos. Goldilocks is only a fairy tale.
“They sold their home in Logan for $140,000 and paid $260,000 for a 1914 Victorian in Sugar House. ‘We now have twice the house payment for a smaller home,’ Pugh said. ‘We bought high, basically, and we’re just hoping our value will continue to appreciate.’”
Maybe in the spirit of the Christmas Season some HBB posters can form a quick response team to do an intervention on GFs such as the Pugh family - before they get themselves into too much trouble.
‘We now have twice the house payment for a smaller home,’
Brilliant.
BTW, Sugar House is the slum in SLC
Oh, really…?
Let’s see: 1914 Victorian = major fixer-upper
Sugar House = SLC slum
Jeremy Pugh and wife: you are more Scrooged than I thought.
Slum? I wouldn’t call Sugarhouse a slum. It has been a neighborhood with a lot of rehabbers moving in and fixing up older places. There are some really nice places there and people like the old neighborhood with funky stores etc.
With that being said, prices there have gone crazy. A grandparents house built in 1910 and in pretty bad shape with maybe 1100 sqft sold for $220k to someone back in September, and we were thanking our lucky stars to sell before the slump hit SLC (I was a bit noisy about getting the place sold asap).
Sugar house isn’t the slum of salt lake, Rose Park and West Valley are. Sugar house is just filled with stuck up flaming liberal hippies (who think its a status symbol to have overpaid for a house in sugarhouse) and poor college students (who rent). There are also a few people who live there because they like the location, but they usually stay away from the really old areas since the houses are over priced and and not practical (no or very small driveways, garages…ect).
WVC is the new slum, though I agree with Rose Park being worse than Sugar House
PhillyG,
I don’t think there is any way to help someone who is so clueless as to willingly pay more for less that would be more effecient than the cold hard slap of reality.
That they didn’t question the fact that they couldn’t sell their larger house for more than the asking price of the smaller house speaks volumes I think on their capacity to interpret anything you or I could say to them as anything other then gibberrish.
But they get to live in Salt Lake City!
“Don’t count on it [appreciation]”
Can some of the rest of us borrow these straight(er)-shooting Realtors who are willing to talk to the media? I think even mentioning “price declines” to the media is against the local Code of Ethics where I live.
You live in SF?
No he is currently living in Iraq. That’s the in Uniform part.
why wait - get your answer here,now
DOWN
‘We just kind of pulled back,’ said Schwabe. ‘In the next few weeks, we’ll know more about our pricing.’”
Ben, I love your blog but you left out one of the best quotes from the SL article:
“When appreciation increases a lot, as it has in Utah, renters are the big losers, forced to pay more with none of the benefits of ownership. And homeowners, even those not looking to sell, benefit. That’s because as a home appreciates so does the owner’s sense of wealth, which inspires additional confidence and spending, said Salt Lake City economist and Zions Bank Consultant Jeff Thredgold.”
Guess I’m a big loser then… :eyeroll
BTW, I would heartily disagree that specuvesting isn’t as large a factor in Utah. Time will definitely tell the truth… Utah lagged on the upward climb, and unlike what some local RE agents are saying, we are not immune to what’s going on other overpriced markets.
Good catch. Amazing that a bank would pay a consultant to come up with this gibberish. How are renters losers here? If anything, this run-up has contributed to excess supplies of available housing. I don’t know of anyone who has seen their rents rise, and some have seen drops. FBs have left us poor renters with plenty of bargain choices.
Note to Jeff Thredgold: go f yourself. Please explain to me how this is beneficial in the long run: “And homeowners, even those not looking to sell, benefit. That’s because as a home appreciates so does the owner’s sense of wealth, which inspires additional confidence and spending…”
So what this guy is saying that everything is cool as long as people “feel” wealthy? Okay Jeff, again go f yourself.
It inspires HELOC’s and toy purchases for sure !
Anyone who doesn’t believe that speculators are a MAJOR part of Utah’s price climb doesn’t know the area.
Up until a few months ago, there were still “Invest in Utah” busses straight out of OC taking boomers and their phantom wealth to the outer reaches of the SLC sticks. What do you think about Daybreak? Uh… South Jordan and frickin’ Herriman? What ’bout Bluffdale right next door? Doesn’t anyone worry that the main employer is the Maximum security prison complex that covers 1/3 of the usable land?
That place is at least, and I mean at LEAST 60% speculators from Cali. Equity locusts, indeed.
Daybreak from the start was ridiculously overpriced. Herriman, I won’t even touch how crazy those prices are. People really don’t stop to think about what they’re getting into. I for one wouldn’t touch a house located atop an old strip mine (Daybreak). That is by far the ugliest location in SLC metro.
My brother-in law (under 28) went in on a spec buy in Daybreak. I just shook my head. No way to even dicuss it with anyone there. It’s like Cali 3 years ago except that you dont’ make nearly as much money.
I remember a recruiting call from Utah where the guy tried to convince me that the salary that was 30% lower than my Cali salary was an “incredible” amount of money in the area. If that’s true, who is buying those $650K houses in S. Jordan and Herriman? It’s not Utahns to live in them!
I’m wondering if that additional confidence and spending comes from say, a nice HELOC. I see it going something like this: “My home just appreciated 50%, I just *know* it’s going up some more. Time to call my lender — I need some more cash from the house to put a down payment on that snowmobile that I’ll finance the rest for at 10%.” I could give countless examples… I’ve seen/heard it all.
Which is exactly why I’m glad I’m out of the home ownership game. My “appreciation” is sitting in a bank right now, and I have the comfort of knowing it *will* continue to increase (too bad the dollar is soft tho). And CA Guy, the rents here in Utah are pretty nice: I saw advertised a 3b2ba rental in a nice town 30 minutes south of SL for $1400/mo. That same house would be asking about $300k+ right now. Not too bad!
“My “appreciation” is sitting in a bank right now, and I have the comfort of knowing it *will* continue to increase (too bad the dollar is soft tho). ”
I sold too. At least we have a fighting chance to invest to beat inflation/devaluation. The people who haven’t woke up yet are toast. People who are trying to sell may still have a small chance. But I think it’s already too late. We’ll see how spring/summer ‘07 selling season goes.
That “feeling” stuff really irritates me too. I will give a well reasoned explanation or prediction in a team meeting and the project manager tells his boss that my engineer “feels” so and so. I don’t say much, but in reality I don’t “feel” anything, I just gave my best estimate. Then I go home and play with my kids - THAT makes me feel good.
A 4.75% 15 year mortgage and 50% equity make me feel good too, appreciation is for wimps, and that makes me FEEL superior ha ha ha. I guess we all justify our actions somehow don’t we?
“That’s because as a home appreciates so does the owner’s sense of wealth, which inspires additional confidence and spending…”
This inspired additional spending beyond ones means as dreams of ever increasing (and wild) appreciation inspired some right into bankruptcy (or soon to be)!
Inventories dropping like a rock in NY.
Of course. Aren’t they anticipating “Obscene Bonuses IV - The Revenge”
You sound jealous txchic. What happened, couldn’t hack NYC?
Yeah, that’s it. Wow, a psychic on top of all your other talents.
You don’t hack NYC, it hacks you.
I’d like to see him try to make money in these markets with the inside information I have vs. what he has - which is zero. But who cares. I enjoy rattling his cage but he’s the Master of the Universe so it doesn’t bother him.
Ignore him - I think the margin calls are starting to take a toll on his personal life!
He’s just one of the many pieces of white collar trash that float around this city like turds in a toilet bowl. The manners of the businessmen make the homeboys look considerate. They are scum, through and through. I love when they all get back on their little trains and go back to New Jersey or Long Island.
NY, a place where Xmas and Hanukkah are actually celebrated. Inventories will come right back after the holidays.
The only thing dropping like a rock in New York is the average IQ every time you set foot in this City.
Pray tell, what are you buying in NY then?
It really must be different there. In Boston, I’m seeing “for RENT” signs proliferate for the first time in 30 years.
Hedgefundanalyst - some friends of mine recently sold an expensive condo in Chelsea that was on the market for only a short period of time - i was a little surprised at how quickly it moved.
So i went to housing tracker, and according to them, the NY msma inventory is NOT dropping like a rock,although recently it was shown a bit of a dip, as have many if not most of the markets i took a quick peak at.
The miller samuels 3Q data (a little dated, perhaps) shows significant increases in inventory over the past year in Manhattan (not quite 50%). Please let me know where you are getting your information, because everything i’m seeing is telling me a different story.
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/NewYork/NewYork-NorthernNewJersey-LongIsland/NewYork-WhitePlains-Wayne
And to all who responded to Hedgefundanalyst, why do you hate him so much? actually, scratch that. Why didn’t you just look up so data to prove him wrong, and then move on. You might find your swipes at him interesting, but i don’t - i think they are a waste of everyone’s time. And i suspect his only purpose on this board is to annoy you - so why not just ignore him?
I am sure you meant “prices” not “inventories.”
http://www.housedata.info/NY/
wrong wrong wrong
http://www.nysar.com/releases/oct06stats.html>
New York housing market slows in October
Albany – November 22, 2006 – Sales of existing single-family homes in New York state in October dropped slightly more than 7 percent compared to October 2005, according to preliminary single-family sales data accumulated by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. The preliminary data showed a median sales price decrease of 6 percent compared to October 2005.
The October 2006 sales total of 8,721 represents a 7.3 percent decrease from the October 2005 sales total of 9,403. The October 2006 total fell 3.1 percent compared to the September 2006 sales total of 9,001.
The October 2006 statewide median sales price of $235,000 represents a 6-percent decline from the October 2005 median of $250,000. The October 2006 median did increase slightly, 1.1 percent, compared to the September 2006 median of $232,500.
Sales gains were reported in 24 of the 58 reporting counties compared to September 2006, while 17 reported growth compared to October 2005.
Twenty-six counties reported gains in median selling price in October 2006 compared to September 2006, while 36 reported gains compared to October 2005.
“As anticipated, the New York housing market’s shift toward buyers, driven by an increase in available inventory, has slowed median sales price growth to single-digit gains,” said Charles M. Staro, NYSAR chief executive officer. “Housing sales, while slowing, still remain at strong levels in the state.”
Front page Utah news:
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,650211674,00.html
That said, Matthews continues to be optimistic about Utah’s housing sector, saying the state is not “overbuilt.”
“It will be easier to absorb them if we can afford them,” Matthews said. “Hopefully we don’t have a big adjustment in Utah.”
Ron Taylor, a real estate agent specializing in selling higher-priced homes with AllPro Realty Group in Salt Lake City, said more expensive homes are taking a little longer to sell.
“The sellers are a little bit more flexible on the prices,” Taylor said. “But they are still selling well.”
Taylor said Utah’s slowdown is due to two reasons: the winter season and the effects from the national slowdown.
“It hasn’t affected us, certainly, the way it has the rest of the country,” Taylor said. “It is surprising that even though homes are appreciating that fast in Utah, people are still qualifying for them and buying them. The low interest rates and the flexible loan plans make more expensive homes affordable for more people. It’s good for the homeowners when their homes appreciate that much.”
Define “affordable”.
“It’s good for the homeowners when their homes appreciate that much.”
Yes Taylor, now what happens to your source of future income when potential homeowners are priced out ? I feel like I’m dealing with the reasoning process of a 2 year old.
From my vantage point, UT *is* being overbuilt. Near my house there are 9 houses for sale, 2 lots, and 6 not-for-sale houses, most new builds. That’s just on one street. And around the corner there sits a house that has been on the market for 6 months. I’m thinking many Utahns are growing sick of the rapid appreciation and don’t want to pay $600k for a cookie cutter house anymore. But I do know quite a few out-of-town GF’s who do!!!!!
And I might add one more thing: Utah does not lack buildable land, unlike some other large metro areas. I don’t get the run-up on land prices when there’s sooo much unused open space (Utah county, for example).
You dont’ even have to go that far. Have you seen what they’re planning for the West Bench? I heard 120K homes over the next 10 years as a starting point…
A ghost town before it’s even built. Someone’s been watching “Field of Dreams” a wee bit much over at Kennecott Land.
” UT *is* being overbuilt”
Join the club. Here in California there must be a shortage of strip malls, tilt up buildings, and residential, throw ‘em up fast and cheap, houses, because they’ re building everywhere!
Wait for the invetory numbers next year, Man their going to be huge. The stuff will hit the fan!
‘People have been cashing out in places like San Diego and Phoenix and going to Boise, Salt Lake and Twin Falls where they can get twice the house for half as much money,’ Thredgold said.”
But what are they doing for jobs in that “raging economy” ?
“But going from dead last to No. 2 is ‘amazing,’ he said, noting Utah does not attract the same level of speculation as places like Nevada and Arizona.”
And it never occurs to this twit that going from last to #2 isn’t a result of the same type of speculation ?
See above comments: this same twit had the audacity to characterize renters as “losers.” Doesn’t sound like he scores high marks in logical thinking and application.
“Doesn’t sound like he scores high marks in logical thinking and application”
Not to mention economics!
Going to #2. Now there’s a phrase with a future .
Twin Frickin Falls? Has anyone been out there? The wind blows 365 days a year and its just a small agriculturally based city in the middle of nowhere. Californians will hate it I guarentee you.
What I find interesting is how the SL Trib is such a rah rah RE promoter. They rarely mention any real bad news about the local RE market. Recent news indicates that in Salt Lake County year over year housing permits issued have dropped by over 10% recently and sales have dropped off significantly when compared with last year in the face of much higher prices.
Speculators, despite the former bank employee Threadgolds arguments, are very present in this market. How he makes the assertion that there aren’t very many in this market without stating his basis is beyond me.
They did, however, note that our “strong” economy is dropping off a bit today…..
http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_4756543
“The Omaha-based university’s monthly Business Conditions Index for Utah declined to 56.4 in November from 65.6 in October and 66.5 in September. ”
“Rather than indicating weakness, the sharp decline in the overall index just means Utah’s economy is moving to a more sustainable long- term growth path,” Goss said.
hmm… .1 % drop in oct 10.1% in nov. No problem here.
UT was last in the tank in 90’s too
but tank it did ,and will
Hear, hear!
Make it come faster!
OT
Carlton Sheets ways in…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20061130/bs_prweb/prweb485753_1
The planes on fire and the engines have fallen off but no worry about putting on that parachute, according to Carlton we’re still gaining altitude.
It scares me when they get comments from people who say they believe a website.
Today I am working from home (the big snowday in Chicago). I am listening to the radio and they just aired an ad for TH in the far west suburbs: a December big sale (now they sell townhouses like cars!). The woman playing the role of a buyer said that she didn’t know whether to wait to spring to buy or not…anyhow she saw the sales and save thousands of $ buying now instead of in Spring with the big increases on prices (!!?). Yes, they said (in the commercial) that actually prices will increase next spring…they are just crazy! Prices of those TH in the far west subur
oooppss (that’s what happens when you type in a tiny laptop keyboard!)
what I was saying…Prices of those TH in the far west suburbs will decrease even more next year…they are building thousands of them in this area…I know ppl are moving further and further away from Chicago but…not so many!
Big snowday my ass. We didn’t even get 2″ in the city.
It’s called the “island effect” in downtown the snow fell as rain but in the suburbs we had around 6″ or more (depending which area of the suburbs) of snow. Roads were not cleaned off until past midday when the blizzard was finally gone.
If the builder actually thought that prices would be higher in the spring, why would they be selling now?
Fianlly some data on SLC. Guys, you should remember the last time CA tanked SLC had a great run.
SLC has had some great appreciation. I do think this is probably the only city in the US that will experience a “soft landing”.
By the way, Sugarhouse has some “slummy” areas, but those are the areas near Liberty Park. Stay east of 13th S and you get into some very nice areas.
A soft landing in Salt Lake may have been possible a year and a half ago but not anymore. Some parts of SLC will crash harder than others and the crash will be a 6-12 months behind the rest of the country but SLC will still crash and burn. It is different in Utah but not when it comes to economics.
A soft landing in Salt Lake may have been possible a year and a half ago but not anymore. Some parts of SLC will crash harder than others and the crash will be a 6-12 months behind the rest of the country but SLC will still crash and burn. It is different in Utah but not when it comes to economics.
not sure why my posts aren’t showing up.
“It was only a matter of time before Utah caught up, Salt Lake City economist and Zions Bank consultant Jeff Thredgold. said. But going from dead last to No. 2 is ‘amazing,’ he said, noting Utah does not attract the same level of speculation as places like Nevada and Arizona.”
No speculation? I was in UT last week, and heard plenty of stories about California speculators driving prices through the roof, and also homes listed at large multiples of market value which were sitting on the market for indefinite periods of time. And then there is the little problem that UT has basically no land shortage and no building restrictions. It is only a matter of time before UT catches up with falling prices in CA, NY, etc.
Can’t tell you about SLC, but I was in St George, Utah a month ago and the giveaway real estate listings guide, with oh so many listings, was about 3/4’s of an inch thick…
yikes~