The Housing Bubble

The Pensacola News Journal reports from Florida. “Housing prices continue their steady decline in the Pensacola Bay Area, accompanied by huge drops in sales volumes for new and existing single-family residences. Escambia County’s total single-family home sales volume plummeted 40 percent in November compared to the previous year. In Santa Rosa County, sales volume fell 46 percent.”

“‘I would call these significant declines,’ said Al Muller, co-owner of Metro Market Trends. ‘The volume of sales continues to slow and median home prices are declining,’ Muller said.”

“The median price of a home in Escambia in November was $125,000, a significant decline from the December 2005 peak of $139,000. Santa Rosa’s median price topped out in October 2005 at $225,000. Last month, the median price declined to just less than $170,000.”

“The total number of single-family homes sold in Escambia dropped 35 percent. In Santa Rosa, those year-to-year numbers fell from 457 in November 2005 to 283 last month, a decline of 38 percent. Muller said another worrisome sign is the uptick in foreclosures in both counties.”

“Doug Gooch, the incoming president of the Pensacola Association of Realtors, agrees in part with Muller’s assessment. ‘We had such a phenomenal two years that it could be expected that we would return to a normal market,’ Gooch said.”

“The record-high inventory of new and older homes for sale in the two-county area is largely the result of Ivan and the surge of investors and speculators who bought after the September 2004 storm, Gooch said.”

The Times Union. “There’s never been a better time to buy a house. There. The media said it. At least I said it, and that should start boosting Northeast Florida home sales. I’m doing my part to alleviate the media-induced fear that builders and sales agents allege is helping to keep prospective buyers at bay.”

“Clark, a Ponte Vedra-based speaker and consultant, titled his speech ‘It’s a Great Time to Buy.’ Clark referred to the recent hot, hot housing market as ‘the last few years of absolute delirium and euphoria.’ That attracted out-of-town investors by the bus load, he said, snapping up five, 10 and 20 properties at a time hoping to flip them for a profit.”

“Such markets can’t last forever. Now, sales are down and fewer construction permits are being issued. It’s a cycle.”

The Miami Herald. “Disputes over a real estate venture involving Hollywood-based Technical Olympic USA are heating up in court.”

“Debtholders for the joint venture sued to force repayment. TOUSA claims the actions of Deutsche Bank, the debtholders’ agent, have starved the joint venture of operating capital to the point where it couldn’t meet its goals. The joint venture was formed to acquire the assets of Transeastern Homes and was supposed to build 3,500, but has been unable to because of the housing market downturn.”

The Herald Tribune. “The Orlando owners of a nearly six-acre property at Fruitville and Beneva roads have decided the time’s right to try and unload. This time last year, LeCesse Development Corp. planned a 104-unit condo project on the land. And unlike scores of downtown condos proposed, the Villa Grande units were slated to be largely affordable, priced between $200,000 and $300,000.”

“LeCesse had the $33 million project on a fast track, too. It hoped to start work last spring, and complete the project sometime in mid-2007. But then the market crashed, more briskly and completely than nearly anyone could have predicted.”

“‘We think it’s a great project, but the problem is in obtaining the pre-construction contracts,’ said Mark Collier, an agent who is marketing the land. ‘The condo market in Sarasota is just soft right now.’”

“LeCesse is hoping to sell it, for $6.4 million, more than double the amount it paid in January 2005, sans building approvals, and let the new owner take advantage of a future market upturn.”

The First Coast news. “Now is time for both home buyers and sellers to enter the market, according to a new housing campaign underway on the First Coast. ‘There seems to be a lot of people out there just out looking not ready to purchase yet because they think the price may be less,’ builder Bryan Lendry said.”

“Lendry says the new home inventory currently stands at about seven months. A year ago, that number was almost half, and the market belonged to sellers. Now, Lendry says, it belongs to the buyers.”

From Bay News 9. “After months in the gutter, the Bay area’s home market is showing signs of recovery. ‘Lower interest rates certainly combined with the incredible amount of inventory out there are really creating a situation for homebuyers where there’s just great product out there,’ Tampa Bay Business Journal editor Alexis Muellner said.”

“Muellner said shopping for a home in the Bay area is getting easier. There are more homes available and even more loan opportunities. First time homebuyers are even looking at the home market in the Bay area, unlike this time last year when it was too expensive.”

“‘The mortgage industry is very fleet to foot at trying to create products that appeal to new homebuyers, first-time homebuyers, people who have refinanced and bought a home a couple times looking for ways to sell and be in a competitive market,’ Muellner said.”

The News Press. “The old saying is timeless: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. That’s especially true for home buyers who might receive mortgage loan offers in the mail for incredibly low monthly payments.”

“Some financial advisers warn consumers not to fall for the lure of those option adjustable rate mortgages, or Option ARMs.”

“‘I’m refinancing a customer right now who opened an Option ARM a year and a half ago,’ said Pat Gaver, incoming president of the Tallahassee Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘This customer chose the minimum payment option. Her loan balance increased $11,000 in the first year. She opted to pay a 3 percent prepayment penalty of her total loan balance, which came out to $8,000, just to get out of the loan,’ Gaver said.”

“‘It could have been much worse for her because most prepayment penalties are as much as 6 percent,’ Gaver said. ‘I tell people every day that (interest) rates aren’t everything.’”