“Buyers Have Vanished” In California
The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “Donald Anthony slashed the asking price on his four-bedroom, two-bathroom house by almost $80,000, and added $40,000 worth of improvements. He’s used three different agents. He listed the 1,800-square-foot home on for-sale-by-owner sites, in newspapers, on cable television and the community site Craigslist. He or his agents have spent at least 50 idle afternoons hosting open houses.”
“But the retired physicist cannot unload the house, now listed at $489,950, well below the price of comparable homes in the fast-growing region between San Francisco and Sacramento. ‘Buyers have vanished,’ Anthony shrugged. ‘If this doesn’t sell post haste, I’m going to bite the bullet and pull it off the market.’”
“‘The residential real estate market in 2006 was characterized by a gap between buyer and seller expectations,’ said California Association of Realtors President Vince Malta. ‘Sellers sensed that the peak of the market was approaching, yet still hoped to obtain the highest possible prices. Buyers’ sense of urgency waned as the number of homes on the market grew.’”
“San Francisco and other expensive coastal cities, including Monterey and Santa Barbara, have become unaffordable for the middle class. ‘I don’t see how the economy can continue with these prices,’ said Stephen Levy, senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
“California’s departing homeowners typically use their substantial equity to fund their next real estate investment. Although some Seattle and Portland residents grumble about ‘Californication,’ the trend has helped keep home prices there rising, said Brian Kreick, broker in Lynnwood, Wash.”
“‘I have clients from southern California who can’t believe what they can get up here for the money,’ Kreick said. ‘I showed one guy a house in Redmond that was $830,000 and still needed a new kitchen. He thought it was a great deal.’”
“‘It’s definitely a friendlier market than earlier this year, but not a dramatically cheaper one,’ Zach Chouteau said. ‘People have gotten really spoiled by the rapidly escalating prices, and it seems like they’re in denial that things have leveled out. They’re just fishing for the best price.’”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Of the 20 percent of homebuyers moving to Bakersfield from other areas in California, the vast majority, about 45 percent, came from Los Angeles County, with about 16 percent from Ventura County, about 10 percent from Northern California and approximately 9 percent from the Bay Area.”
“‘When they are coming from the coast to buy houses, they have a lot more money to spend,’ said Hans Johnson, a research fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California. ‘It can change the market and it can inflate it.’”
“When James Diaz first got a job in Bakersfield eight years ago, he tried commuting every day from his house in Clovis. But the long commute convinced Diaz to buy a house in Bakersfield to stay in during the week. He still spends weekends with his wife in Clovis. ‘Maintaining two homes, two mortgages is expensive,’ he said.”
The North County Times. “Vacancies in North County apartments have continued to drop as home sales have slowed, according to a survey by the San Diego County Apartment Association. ‘There is a perception right now among residents that slowing home sales may lead to lower home prices,’ stated Robert Pinnegar, the association’s executive directore. ‘As a result, fewer residents have left the rental housing market as they wait for prices to bottom out.’”
The Daily News. “Magic Mountain isn’t going away anytime soon. ‘The housing slow-down has taken the steam out of the idea of selling it off and converting it to residential,’ said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation.”
“‘Because you have a situation now (elsewhere) where developers have put down non-refundable deposits and they’re walking away,’ he said.”
The Victorville Daily Press. “While High Desert home sales continue to show signs of weakness, the region’s market likely isn’t headed into a recession, as some bargain-minded buyers hope.”
“‘In the summer of 2004, anyone could sell a house,’ said (realtor) Caroll Yule in Victorville. But, not anymore says Yule, who notes realtors have reverted to coaxing buyers back into the market with a myriad of incentives.”
“New sales figures show the number of homes sold from Sept. 15 to Oct. 15 dipped 14.5 percent from last month and 31 percent from the same time last year. Home prices were as well 2.5 percent lower than last month’s. Perhaps most important, however, area inventory is up 108 percent from the same lime last year.”
“Yule recalls a similar period nearly two decades ago, when full-time realtors in the High Desert numbered about 900 in 1990, but shrank to a pool of about 400 by 1994.”
“Brad Bodell, operating principal at the Keller Williams in Victorville, said, the adjusting environment is giving realtors and buyers a more ‘realistic’ view of the market.”
“In addition, he said, home owners will see their houses from a ‘broader scope,’ not just in terms of their individual ’stupidity and greed.’”
Redrum Realty - top left
http://www.itulip.com/
Attention all Bubble Blogers:
I have reading this website daily for the past year and a hald. It is time for us to educate the people so that we can get this bubble over with. Please go to Craig’s list for you city and send all sellers the following letter:
Dear Property Owner,
There are some websites that you should be aware of as they may help you better price your home:
ad links to housingbubbleblog here and zillow etc.
Note to Bubble Bloggers: What other sites are indispensable for the education of flippers?
Hmm. Let’s try it again with out the annoying typos.
Attention all Bubble Blogers:
I have been passivly reading this website daily for the past year and a half. I think it is time for all of us to become more active. It is time for us to educate the people so that we can get this bubble over with. Please go to Craig’s list for you city and send all sellers the following letter:
Dear Property Owner,
There are some websites that you should be aware of as they may help you better price your home:
Include this webblog as well as other good sites.
Note to Bubble Bloggers: What other sites are indispensable for the education of flippers?
In my experience, Zillow is hopelessly overpriced.
Well, my rental house has went down over $100k in a year according to Zillow. People I talk to think Zillow is way undervalued. Funny!!
I use zillow to get what prices for said property were in 1999-2000 when the market was normal… I add appreciation equal to inflation +1-2% year over year.
Bingo you get the real price and not zillow price.
When zillow get near your price then its time to buy…
Of course they would think Zillow is underpriced. They are the same ones who think they can sell their homes in a week at September 2005 prices + 20%.
I find that Zillow is simply inaccurate. Our neighbors house is shown at 70% more than ours. The folks across the street in a nicer, larger home with the biggest lot on the street is only 20% more than ours. The pricing is simply wacky. I use it to check out stats and recent sales prices. The zestimate is a joke.
Agreed. I often zillow my old neighborhood in California, and I’ve found the numbers to be way off. We lived in a tract house in a neighborhood with only five different models, so I’m very familiar with what is available.
The zestimate for our old house is $569k (way high!), while an identical house across the street is $530k. The house next door, which is a bit bigger and nicer, is zestimated at $497k.
I can’t figure it out. The two identical houses were sold in March 2005 for exactly the same price, so why the $40k difference? Neither one has been edited by the owner to reflect any upgrades.
Bizarre!
Actually, I’d prefer an e-mail that goes something like this:
Dear Property Bagholder,
While you still have a fixed address, I’d like to send you the box from the big-screen HDTV I just bought at a firesale held by an FB just like you. This sturdy, foldable box might come in handy as you prepare to enter a new, more mobile phase of life. [Note: you can fold it up and fit it in a shopping cart, which will soon be another fashion accessory of yours].
Please send me the ages and measurements of your wife and teenage daughters, as I will require “domestic help” once I acquire your house at a foreclosure sale.
Cheers,
A Smug Renter
Hey Meester….how much for de blonde one, yes, that one!
Yikes, that was too creepy! Funny, though.
The last time I checked the median income for Kern County was 37,500- that’s right around 7 times the median asking price for a homes here. I’ve lived in this hole for most of my life and the jobs just don’t exist for this type of pricing.
FYI: for all you LA people letting your teenage demons tag and gangbang, there’s a new number for the Bakersfield Police for this type of activity, I’ll certainly be calling it quite often. Rapid responce and arrest is the name of the game now. GO AWAY!
hey tx chick as a fan of the shining i really loved that video
very funny
But it’s different here!
One more. This one’s a riot. Be sure and look at the pics
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5198#post5198
redrum realty is hilarious….
Dear Fellow Bloggers,
I am a prostitute in New York with six kids from four different fathers. I live in a 0% down dump. It is not my fault because the welfare people don’t give me enough money for my kids and my pimp takes 50%. My sister also sells herself but its to get money for all of her kids and to make bail for one of her husbands. I would ask my mother for advice but she is in jail for armed robbery. I can not find my dad for advice. In fact I do not know who he is.
Anyway her is my problem. There is a new man in my life and I love him dearly. In fact we plan to get married. I want him to meet my family to get their approval. Should I tell my relatives that he is a realestate broker?
“Donald Anthony slashed the asking price on his four-bedroom, two-bathroom house by almost $80,000, and added $40,000 worth of improvements. He’s used three different agents. He listed the 1,800-square-foot home on for-sale-by-owner sites, in newspapers, on cable television and the community site Craigslist. He or his agents have spent at least 50 idle afternoons hosting open houses.”
$120K in upgrades plus discounts, and he still can’t arouse any buyer interest. Maybe he forgot to serve the guacomole dip?
Hey- that gives me an idea. What if people decided in order to go see an open house, they would DEMAND that the owner serve up a full dinner or lunch. Then you could just show up, eat dinner, excuse yourself from the table, and bingo- free dinner every night!
try to remember to eat before you post.
I demand the owner feed me squirrel meat for lunch! The squirrel has to be caught in his own back yard!
and overfed so that it is tender!
LOL..I demand that the seller give me a total kitchen remodel allowence of 100k ,pay for mortgage payments for 10 years after paying all closing costs and reduce the sucker 30% also .
Count me in for these terms as well…
Me too.
“Buyers have vanished,” Anthony shrugged in front of new Shaker maple cabinets and never-used appliances. “If this doesn’t sell post haste, I’m going to bite the bullet and pull it off the market.”
2006: bite the bullet.
2007: swallow the bullet.
2008: even larger inventory of REO property.
2009: “Experts” are still saying that “prices are anticipated to bottom out next year.”
2009: Following a nearly flat 2008, where prices went up less than 2%, this year is not expected to see increases of much more than that.
Bill — Thanks for the reminder. I had forgotten that home prices had reached a permanently high plateau of unaffordability.
Since when did “bite the bullet” = “pull it off the market” ??
Bite the bullet means “reduce the price EVEN MORE”.
Pulling it off the market is a non-move. Its basically a hail mary. You’re speculating that the market will turn in your favor at a later date even though all the signs point otherwise.
But spring is coming complete with an expected invasion of buyers. You can’t expect them to give ‘em away, you know…
2009: Get a good ass-punding and crap the bullet.
2009: Pass the bullet — sideways, along with many bricks.
Nah - 2008: $h”ting bullets
No, Donald, anything but pull it off the market!
Isnt San Francisco different… lacking in supply of land and lots of demand…
Yea right… nice city yes, but only fools would pay that much. Sadly man did and will pay on the downward spiral. They will never get out of debt.
With due respect to bubble sitters in the Bay Area, they are talking about a home between SF and Sacramento. If this house were in SF proper, and assuming that it wasn’t in Hunter’s point and in decent shape, I would pay $490k for an 1,800 square foot, 4 bedroom 2 bath place with $40k of recent upgrades. You could probably rent it for $3k+ per month.
Now between SF and Sac is obviously a different story…
A home probably along the HW 80 corridor which is _not_ the Bay Area - it’s Central Valley.
I am so sick of the SF arguement about the lack of land and the ‘everyone wants to live here’ stuff. Sure it’s true, and it was true in 1990 and 1995 and 2000. This ‘information’ was already baked into the prices. It’s not like people just woke up one morning in 2005, looked at a map, and realized SF is on the tip of a pennisula.
These ‘facts’ were already well known and do nothing to justify the price spike of the last few years.
Yeah, and what the heck is he talking about “well below the price of comparable homes”? There are FIVE (count ‘em!) 1800 sq.ft. homes priced at exactly $489,950 on the Antioch MLS. That’s not to mention the ones priced at $489,000, or the hopefuls holding out for that extra $50 (2 priced at $490K even…they must not really want to sell!)
Dude, price it at $389,950 and I think you’d find a buyer right away. Otherwise, stop whining!
Besides, it’s in Antioch.
Which part of “Anitoch” does the seller not understand?
Oh Lord, I’m stuck in uh-Lodi, again…
Give me a break.
“San Francisco and other expensive coastal cities, including Monterey and Santa Barbara, have become unaffordable for the middle class. ‘I don’t see how the economy can continue with these prices,’ said Stephen Levy, senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
These guys are geniuses aren’t they? I guess it takes a SENIOR economist 5 years to admit what everyone else and their mother has known forever.
Yes… price houses 10 times more than the median income and what do you get? -Lots of people that can’t afford to live here. Maybe I should get a job as a senior economist since apparently obvious facts are stated as quotes from a specialist.
‘I don’t see how the economy can continue with these prices,’
Here is yet another astute observation from a top-tier ivory tower economist…
I see how it can continue. It is possible that, even if the market corrects, the best parts of So. Cal. will be permanently too high for the middle class. Even if the market tanks, your average school teacher or fire fighter, or even decently successful attorney or accountant, will never be able to afford a house in Santa Monica, Santa Barbara or coastal Malibu. It sucks, but let’s be realistic, the few with big bucks seem to be driving the prices up around here to a permanently high plateau (or price range).
Prices are set at the margin. How many people with “big bucks” are buying today?
I don’t know the answer to that, I just know that I see one bedroom condos selling for over $1million, and 2 bedroom houses selling for 1.5.
But the good news is, I definitely see more inventory, with some for sale signs sitting out weeks or even a couple months, which wasn’t the case (obviously) last summer (2005).
However, the only people buying in the great areas today are folks with big bucks or big cojones.
Another big force is the ever increasing number of high earning Husband/Wife combined incomes. Total income of 300 K is very common in bay area for people doing routine techical computer work. Maybe they have one child. This is to some degree contributing to higher metro housing prices that will continue to drive up housing costs longer term.
Babies - yet another casualty of the housing bubble.
I don’t believe that. $150K, I believe… maybe even 200. But that’s it.
But rents are still lower than they were prior to the dot.com bust. Doesn’t add up.
That condition is unsustainable. A couple making 300k combined for routine technical work is a couple that is about to experience a painful readjustment.
Maybe not in Santa Monica, but large parts of LA between Santa Monica and downtown were reasonably priced 7-8 years ago. In the late 1990s you could still buy a decent place for not much more than $200k in many neighborhoods. The Valley was even cheaper. And Santa Monica wasn’t THAT much more expensive - you could buy an ok house there in the mid $300k range.
The fact is, “average” people in SoCal don’t make THAT much money, and there aren’t enough genuinely affluent people to support high prices throughout the entirety of LA. This was true in the 1990s, and it’s still true today. Ten years ago it was only slightly somewhat more expensive to buy than to rent. These days it costs 3 times as much to buy as to rent.
This is clearly not sustainable long term - now that appreciation has stopped, why would anyone have incentive to pay 3x as much AND take on all the risks and hassles of ownership? We will see a major correction, no doubt. The simple laws of economics demand it. The only hard part will be trying to decide when the market has bottomed out.
“It sucks, but let’s be realistic, the few with big bucks seem to be driving the prices up around here to a permanently high plateau (or price range”
There are the fancy high-priced law firms in century city and dwtn LA, and the hi-priced doctors in Beverly Hills, not to mention newly-minted hollywood sensations, to keep the westside bubble up. And maybe some mid-east oil shieks and Asian investors as well.
I don;t know squat about Westside LA except for seeing a few megamansions of the rich and famous up in Brentwood and bel-aire: indeed it is different in LA.
Prediction: one sector of the LA economy that will do well during the upcoming recession/depression is the legal profession, as there will be lawsuits galore as the mulitudes who got truly f*ed by the RE collapse will provide plentiful work for the LA westside attorneys.
Yes another priceless quote from someone who is COMPLETELY out of touch with the average American family…..It’s AFFORDABILITY STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!
This is not an election.
OK, if that’s how they’re going to be, then I’m off to buy anther round of investments. They can forget me as a buyer.
~Misstrial
Reminds me of the triple point of water - where the fog of intellect overwhelms common sense. Stealing sales from the future; reaching the last GF on the planet; and exploding prices 3X beyond the ability of J6P to afford - and the result is ‘I don’t see how the economy can continue with these prices,’ !??? Pathetic.
Yet people still think they can sell a 50 year-old 3 bed, 1 bath POS next to the railroad tracks in the worst neighborhood in Livermore CA(50 miles east of SF) for $525,000.
It’s sooooooo special here the buyer isn’t supposed to mind the 60 car freight train that rolls by every day at 4:30 am
There is a point where reality and fantasy meet and reality usually beats the crap out of fantasy and it’s been known to get udgly
“San Francisco and other expensive coastal cities, including Monterey and Santa Barbara, have become unaffordable for the middle class. ‘I don’t see how the economy can continue with these prices,’ said Stephen Levy, senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
Such Expensive coastal cities as SB and old dwtn Ventura really have little to maintain their skyhigh home prices. They do have attractive scenery and weather, parks, green belts and attractive walkable old towns, but that alone will not keep prices propped up.
There are a tiny handful of hi-paying companies in the Goleta Area of SB and coastal Ventura, but overall their localized economies simply cannot justify million dollar homes in SB or $600-$700 homes in Ventura. There has been some growth in large tract housing developments in Oxnard(Riverpark) and Camarillo but without concurrent growth in jobs Ventura/SB housing prices should continue to stagnate. Oxnard does seem more pro-growth as evidenced by the enormous expansion of shopping centers along the 101.
I don’t by any means advocate the messy spawling urban growth of such places as the inland empire areas of riverside/san bernardino, which is having highly negative effects upon the IE environment. That is up to the local folks to decide. However, keeping a coast pristine does lead to affordability issues for the middle/lower working classes in these cities.
Lot’s of people don’t have to afford to live there. Monterey is a small city. You only need one buyer per home - not 100.
“But the retired physicist cannot unload the house, now listed at $489,950, well below the price of comparable homes in the fast-growing region between San Francisco and Sacramento. ‘Buyers have vanished,’ Anthony shrugged.”
What is a comp, anyway, if all the buyers have vanished? It sounds like there are no comps, so nobody knows what the market value is — just like on Black Monday (October 19, 1987), a day when the stock market shut down because there were “no comps.”
Shouldn’t a physicist be good enough at math to figure this out? I mean, half the equations used in financial math and econ are adapted from physics, are they not? Force = mass x acceleration is equivalent to price = income / rate. If rates and incomes are substantially unchanged from several years ago, why should the price be 150% higher?
Real estate math is child’s play compared to the stuff physicists do. I mean it’s like a sudoku with all but a couple numbers filled in.
We talk about relying on raw data and fundamentals… this guy devoted his enitre life to observing data, analyzing data and drawing conclusions from data on a far higher scale than what is necessary in RE. Yet he can’t see his price is too damn high.
Ever seen a scientist or engineer who could trade the markets either? I haven’t. Yet, I’ve seen plenty of car salesmen who can.
There are plenty of scientists who make a killing in the market, they run hedgefunds and don’t share their secrets. In fact, they try to keep as low a profile as possible because they know one once a working formula is know to others, it will be arbitraged to zero.
I have an engineering degree, but never had a real engineering job. Does that count? Actually I know a few such people.
Markets and investing success are laregly driven by psychology rather than cold, hard math. Engineers and physicists, generally speaking, are not socially gifted (I know it’s a stereotype, but it’s true) and generally don’t know much about greed, fear, or the psychology of herds.
I dissagree. Engineers aren’t as social becuase they don’t see each interaction with another human being as an opportunity to line their pockets. Engineers will deal with people based on the merits of the people they are dealing with. Why waste your time being ‘friends’ with someone who isn’t earnest in the relationship. Engineers tend to be very pragmatic people who see through the “rah rah” BS. They are interested in having meaningful interaction with logical people. Too bad this country was built by engineers and most people don’t understand how much of their standard of living comes from them. Casigate the geeks if you must, but understand that engineers have contributed more to our quality of life than any realtor, stock broker, day trader, or lawer.
My father was a engineer and he had the exact traits you described .
HW,
Not sure if you were replying to me, but I was an engineer for an aerospace company for about ten years. If you met me at a party, you would probably think I was cool. But I don’t maintain relationships with people who are not genuine in their intent. I much prefer dealing with engineers because they are not as judgemental as most and can hold conversations about all kinds of different topics (pragmatism) with real insight. It bothers me to no end that we hold people like Paris Hilon in the highest of esteem while the people who really grease the sids of capitalism (which affords Paris her lifestyle) are treated like second class citizens.
Thanks for saying it man. Nice to know I’m not the only one who thinks exactly the same thing.
You my friend, win the internets.
I was talking to Rancho Ca, btw, in case that wasn’t clear.
Rancho Cal, great description of both the personality and plight of the engineers out there. Technical folks in general get crapped on by society in this country - as compared to those in Europe and Asia. Whether it be a research scientist, computer tech, or car mechanic Americans in general tend to look down on these folks - which is surprising given the fact that most people nowadays cannot change a tire on the very vehicle they depend on to take them everywhere.
We’ll see though - we’ll see how long a society that fetishizes celebrities but derides its engineers can last. This economy based on hyper-consumption will soon be toast.
Ummm, I don’t know anyone who holds Paris Hilton in the highest of esteem. It’s more about the eternal fascination with watching a train wreck in action.
“Ummm, I don’t know anyone who holds Paris Hilton in the highest of esteem. It’s more about the eternal fascination with watching a train wreck in action.”
Actually, I am afraid the younger generation holds her and her classless friends in very high regard. To them she has the perfect life. All the partying you want. All the sex you want. All the material goods and artificial friends money can buy. No need to work or get those pesky high school degrees (won’t even think of mentioning a college degree although I am sure some day she’ll buy one from a diploma mill.) What a great life. At least in the teen view. And I’m not seeing anything in our culture to give teens a different message. Now that scares me.
There’s a huge difference.
In the housing market, you can always hope for a greater fool. In physics (nature), there is never a greater fool than you.
In physics, if you delude yourself, your peers will jump on you and make you admit your error by conducting irrefutable experiments. In economics, if you delude yourself, industry shills call you a “sophisticated investor.”
There has never been a person so smart that they could not be blinded by greed. That is why greed is never a good thing.
Isaac Newton had a problem figuring out bubble market pricing as well…
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/southsea.htm
“In economics, if you delude yourself, industry shills call you a ’sophisticated investor.’”
Excellent observation! And rather amazing, IMO. I guess those of us here who believe are not sophisticated whatsoever, and I am comfortable with that.
i’d rather be a rustic rube than a sophisticated investor if that is the definition
“If rates and incomes are substantially unchanged from several years ago, why should the price be 150% higher?”
Because it is a new paradigm! Soon the norm will be for people to live with parents until age 40 so that they can save up to afford a house because they will cost $4M for a tract unit. And don’t forget that debt equals wealth! Cost basis is irrelevant since prices only go up. You need to get in now before you’re priced out!
I’ll turn off the sarcasm now, but yes, a physicist should be able to do some basic financial math. Unfortunately many very intelligent people are financially stupid. People often use doctors and dentists as good stereotypes. What these jackholes don’t realize is that McMansions are not scarce commodities, and there was a reason that prices in the region between SF and Sac were low. Mainly, it’s ugly and in the middle of nowhere with no local economy. This guy is screwed.
SFer: saw your observations on the condo towers in SF, thanks! At least they aren’t holding lotteries for the units! I guess that is a start towards a decline.
“…a physicist should be able to do some basic financial math.”
Math likely has little to do with this guy’s perception, no matter what his background.
Selling a house is emotional (mostly for the want of the money) with most folks.
Because it is a new paradigm! Soon the norm will be for people to live with parents until age 40 so that they can save up to afford a house because they will cost $4M for a tract unit. And don’t forget that debt equals wealth! Cost basis is irrelevant since prices only go up. You need to get in now before you’re priced out!
Watch out! The Toll Brothers might sue you for plagurism!
There are always comps, though they may require some ‘adjusting’ depending on un-comparable they are. If is comps are based on LISTINGS and not sales, that’s his problem right there. And in this market, those sales better not be more than a month or so old or he’s kidding himself.
In a falling market, with virtually no buyers, you, dear seller,
ARE the comp. If you want to sell, you’ll set a new low.
How did it work when the market went up? Didn’t everyone take the last price and add, what? 10% or so?
So what do people think happens in a falling market? Each sale reduces the small and shrinking buying pool that much more. To attract buyers (in competition with other sellers) you have to “discount” just like any other retailer.
So, take the last “comp” and knock 10% off. Maybe you’ll get lucky but if you don’t, knock another 10% off (or maybe you won’t get that last, marginal, buyer and NEVER sell your property).
What a great post! LOL!!!
~Misstrial
There are comps. They are the current listings in the area for a similar house. His house will sell for somewhat under the “comp” listings. How far under is the question. He needs to lower the price until he finds that price. Its a lot simpler than physics.
“They are the current listings in the area for a similar house.”
In my book, it is not a comp until it sells. Wishing prices on homes that are sitting on the market for month-after-month only suffice to provide an upper bound, not an unbiased estimate of current market value.
Ding! Ding! Ding! You may select a prize from the top shelf!
One more comment: I simply cannot get over how increasingly amusing the stories are that are flowing out of California. I find it refreshing that what me and the rest of us have stated for years is now mainstream and actually unfolding. What’s more is that almost everything we knew would happen… is happening.
Here’s my favorite/amusing line from the top article:
“fast-growing region between San Francisco and Sacramento”.
Where is this exactly at 489k? My guess is I-80 around Vacaville. Fast growing ….LOL. It’s been the same slow growth for the last 20 years, and people making nightmare commutes into the Bay Area. If I-580, Tracy is the closest to BA sporting these prices. Neither are the Bay Area and will be “Implosion Central” country when this is done.
Same here, Jetson. It’s going taking a friend to see a movie that you have already seen. You know what’s coming, but for them it’s new, so you are watching how they react…
Dude’s a physicist. You’d think he’d know about second derivatives and stuff like that.
Yup, second derivative was reached and passed sometime last year.
with this kind of decision making, if Anthony has family, they may want to consider a durable/general power of attorney.
Physics joke: The first derivative of velocity is the acceleration. The second derivative of velocity is the rate of change of velocity, or the “jerk”.
Actually, a bubble market has positive feedback and behaves more complex than simply a = dv/dt. The feedback leads to a differential equation (the price appreciation of new homes is partially dependent on the rate of price appreciation). There was an article over a year ago about physicists using dynamical systems (complex systems/chaos theory) analysis to predict the bubble dynamics. Regardless, I think it is safe to say that this particular physicist is not in line for a Nobel or even any of the numerous, lesser, more specialized prizes.
Bakersfield story = waste of someones research dollars.
They should have done this last and 2004 when 50% of our market was overrun by speculators. Sales are down 35% YOY - so this report is meaningless.
Basically a bunch of morons commute everyday over the grapevine. Good luck suckers - this happened in the early 90’s in Lancaster/Palmdale and look what happened there!
You pretty much need to do this commute in a Prius, right? First because gas is $3, and secondly so you can use whetever HOV lanes there are.
Also, I gather it’s real hard to commute anywhere past Pasadena, as traffic just gets worse and worse on the 5.
The Prius is a piece of junk. Yet another overpriced POS from Toyota. If you are going to drop $30K, at least get a BMW!
it’s really stupid to buy a prius for 30k. invoice price is 20k.
Also the print edition says “Small number of homes purchased by out of towners (or some other bs)” - So 1/4 is small then why waste time printing this report???
When I post on the newspapers WEAK blog this is the response I get:
And adding to the panic it seems. One of the big problems in this country is the glee with which everyone runs around saying “I told you so.” (Including me). It does nothing to help our economy when headlines scream “The bubble has burst!!” and get people in such a tizzy that they decide to sell before the market tanks. People need to remember that buying a home is buying a place to live. It’s rare that the market goes bananas like it did a few years ago and people need to stop using their residence to try to make a quick buck. I talked to a realtor the other day whose client had taken a large chunk of cash out with a re-fi and now can’t sell the house for what she owes. The ones who really came out ahead are the ones who kept their heads and if they financed at all, only did it to lower thier interest rate and payment. They’re the ones who got that lower payment but continued to pay the larger amount and get their mortgage paid off early.
The ones who re-fi’d and took out cash now have to pay that back over 20-30 years and only extended the time they have to have house payments. True a lot of people made some quick money but the majority of home buyers in the last few years have seen that inflated equity go right down the drain.
Yup..people need to know about the market but what they don’t need is the “henny penny” people scaring them into making bad decisions.
Why do I waste my time?
I hear ya, crisp!
How’s Tehachapi been doing?
~Misstrial
G
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“Why do I waste my time?”
Like brave men of yore, screaming “Women and Children first” and shoving them into the frigid Atlantic so that there would be room in the lifeboat for you and your rum drinking buddies, because in your cruel merciless heart there is a touch of empathy for your family (not even caring what they call you). As for trying to enlighten the others, I have met with very limited success. I have at times felt like Cassandra, wondering whether I shall be burned at the stake for being a heretic to the American way of life.
Are you telling me that the folks who were thrashing in the Atlantic in that scene out of ‘Titanic’ are to be compared to the folks who will be thrashing and screaming wildly as their home values decline and they are awash in debt?
Of course not. The people in the water had a much quicker and more merciful death than the FB’s will have.
I believe the term for the response you received is, “whistling past the graveyard.” Keep up the good work
“People need to remember that buying a home is buying a place to live. ”
But .. where was this rationality for the past 5 years though?
People were saying it. My wife and I were listening.
Exactly.
Renting a home is also procuring a place to live ….. just for a lot less money in many cases.
Dude, who pays off principal these days? That’s downright unsophisticated.
Some ass gave a talk at my company a while back, essentially advocating that we should all take out interest-only loans, periodically refinance with “equity extraction,” and invest the proceeds in the product he was peddling, which is some sort of life insurance annuity. Good luck with that.
That sounds like my cousin’s husband.
I can’t think of any two more depressing places in California than Victorville and Bakersfield. Talk about drinking the koolaid…YIKES! In the last housing bust in ‘90, these places weren’t even considered as viable movie sets to blow up since they were so far out in the tuulies.
Bakersfied sucks…and when the wind blows…it’s pesticide city!
You are from Caliente? LOL. I know this town blows, but at least be from so city that is better…
Further in…actually, near Twin Oaks, 4500′ up the mtn.
The wind doesn’t blow in Bakersfield. Rather, there’s a unique meterological fluke: The place sucks so bad, it’s pulling in all the outside air.
About 15 years ago, gasing up in Bakersfield, I went into the mini mart and they had anti Johnny Carson T-shirts for sale. Apparently B’f was the target of many a joke by him.
Actually, Eureka is pretty depressing (weather-wise) too. But that hasn’t stopped the equity locusts from down south from coming here.
Just checked over the RE listings today…inventory is down to 596 from 792 in August, and is only 12% higher than a year ago. Greedy sellers continue to pull homes from the market!
“I can’t think of any two more depressing places in California than Victorville ”
Victorville is a large section 8 ghetto expanse out in the flat windblown high desert. Wait till gas shoots up to $3.00 again and/or the re bubble really collapses next year, then you’re talking about these forelorn desert communities turning into tumbleweed ghost towns.
“Magic Mountain isn’t going away anytime soon.”
Damn….and I was so looking forward to Wally World finally being put to rest.
The magically self-replenishing mountain of money in your house ATM is gone, though.
Sorry folks. Park’s closed. Moose out front should have told you so.
Long live the humor of John Candy!
“Damn….and I was so looking forward to Wally World finally being put to rest.”
No way man…the best selection of big metal coasters on the left coast. I’m glad that it’s staying open.
Last time my wife and I went, it was more of a gang bangers hangout…
been awhile~
While High Desert home sales continue to show signs of weakness, the region’s market likely isn’t headed into a recession, as some bargain-minded buyers hope. Instead, analysts predict a leaner housing industry, where realtors court buyers more aggressively.”
The story then goes on to speak to the “analysts” they refer to in this beginning paragraph: Caroll Yule of Shear Realty, Larry Trombley of Century 21 Rose Realty, Phillips, of Century 21 Fairway Realty, Brad Bodell, operating principal at the Keller Williams real estate…..
Wow, Now I’m convinced there will be no housing recession in the high desert, what with all these high powered intellectual and completely unbiased “analyst” telling me so.
PS… If they’re serious about “courting the buyers” they better bring the knee pads.
There was and still is a ginormous amount of building going on in the Victor Valley (Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Adelanto). Inventory central.
“The story then goes on to speak to the “analysts” they refer to in this beginning paragraph: Caroll Yule of Shear Realty, Larry Trombley of Century 21 Rose Realty, Phillips, of Century 21 Fairway Realty, Brad Bodell, operating principal at the Keller Williams real estate”
These folks have a selfish monetary incentive to prop up the Victor valey desert REMarket. What is driving the desert building boom is the self-promoted hype of desert hucksters(local realtors), who need that commission. These desert burgs will fall down hard in the slightest economic ill-wind/recession, as there is nothing to sustain prices except for REIC hype. No high-paying jobs, 2 hrs from riverside/3-4 hrs from LA.OC. What you find in Victorville as well as the other desert burgs are lots of section 8 folks and meth labs. Not to mention 110 % baking heat in summer. Not much better in Palmcaster or coachella valley. thou Palm springs would be at top of scale for rated desert communities.
I think this just hit the wires so I’m double posting in a very long Bits and Buckets thread and this fresher thread.
Interesting Fannie Mae is starting to point blame:
http://tinyurl.com/yxerdy
Fannie Mae sues former auditor KPMG
Tue Dec 12, 2006 5:10pm ET
By Patrick Rucker
“WASHINGTON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Mortgage lending company Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) on Tuesday filed suit against its former outside auditor KPMG LLC claiming negligence and breach of contract for its part in flawed accounting that led to an $6.3 billion restatement of past earnings.
The accounting giant applied more than 30 flawed principles and cost the company more than $2 billion in damages, Fannie Mae states in its complaint.
KPMG was Fannie’s auditor “for more than 30 years,” the 52-page suit states, and was paid “tens of millions of dollars” to perform a “critical watchdog function.” Fannie Mae fired the accounting firm in mid-December 2004, just a week after the Securities and Exchange Commission ordered the company to restate more than two years of flawed earnings.”
According to John Kenneth Galbraith’s “A Short History of Financial Euphoria,” we should take all of the CYA moves underway by key bubble players (including FNM and Hank Paulson) as signs that the end game is underway.
Stucco: the game is afoot! A lot of funny actions being taken over the past 6 months. The fact that the blame game is starting so early in the cycle is what really frightens me. This stuff still isn’t even showing up on most people’s radar screens. Me thinks this CYA means that the problem is enormous. Maybe even worse than those of us with tin foil hats believe.
Yeah right. If KPMG had been honest all along, Fannie would have ditched them for an auditor that would have told them what they wanted to hear and fixed the numbers to make it work. Similar to the way FBs treat honest mortgage brokers.
How can a company as complex as Fannie Mae sue its auditor? That’s like suing your shrink because he said you weren’t crazy when you actually are.
Good post Carrie Ann: I absolutely agree with mssrs: Pete and GS. And as posted earlier the Federal Reserve is spewing CYA, The only parties lacking in the CYA BS are the banks - they must still have their eyes closed or maybe they have agreed to be the fall guys?
“Although some Seattle and Portland residents grumble about ‘Californication,’ the trend has helped keep home prices there rising, said Brian Kreick, broker in Lynnwood, Wash.”
“‘I have clients from southern California who can’t believe what they can get up here for the money,’ Kreick said. ‘I showed one guy a house in Redmond that was $830,000 and still needed a new kitchen. He thought it was a great deal.’””
Another braindead Californian gets fleeced. Sure, in the short term, these idiots hold up the comps, but long term prices will be dictated by local economic conditions. And ultimately, this dimwit will have thrown away money. Yeah, Redmond has Microsoft, and King County has the highest per capita rate of millionaires in the US (I read recently), but most people in the Northwest are not wealthy. Lots and lots of toxic loans, flippers, FB’s, HELOC money, etc. I am eagerly awaiting the foreclosure nightmare I believe to be coming. Under normal circumstances I don’t relish in anothers misery, but these FB’s dug their own grave, and drove up the prices. My pity will lie with the families who were priced out.
On another note, checked out Truckee, CA yesterday. Have not been there in over 5 years. I was not impressed with what has become of my old stomping grounds. Overbuilding, construction everywhere, and prices in the stratosphere. Most new construction SFR’s are in the $700-$900k range. Tiny old homes less than 1k square feet selling in the mid $500k’s. Sick. And of course, huge real estate headquarters on the main street. Lots of pretentious, gluttonous, sickos around. Whatever happened to my old, quaint little town? I hate this bubble.
Checking on the millionaires per capita article. Think it is wrong and LA county has the most. Will include link shortly.
I don’t think the highest millionaire-per-capita is Seattle; instead it’s a small municipality across Lake washington from Seattle, next to Bellevue called “Medina”–Bill Gates lives there. It’s a mega-rich little enclave.
The article said “King County”, not Seattle. It’s meaningless to compare m-p-c for incorporated cities, since their boundaries are pretty arbitrary. Like using Beverly Hills as a benchmark for L.A. County.
Millionaires per capita? I always heard it was Teton County, Wyoming.
$700K in Truckee makes no sense. It’s a nice little place, but it is not Tahoe or even Donner Lake and there are no really nice views in town. Where do Tahoe people with ordinary jobs live now? Do they all drive up from Reno or Carson?
passthebubbly, every article I find on millionaires per capita is different. I think they are all BS. Yeah, Truckee is OUT OF CONTROL. Have no clue what is going on there, except that possibly the entire population has been completely replaced by independently wealthy types. Check out this excess in Zephyr Cove.
http://www.chaseinternational.com/60023747
If it’s $1M in annual household income, the IRS could tell us in 10 minutes. I’d guess it would be New York County, NY or Fairfield County, CT.
If it’s $1M in net worth… who knows. The IRS doesn’t know, how do you count home equity against debt, and if it’s based on a poll people are very likely to lie either high or low.
Can I get a neg-am on that place in Tahoe?
Fernley, they can’t afford to live in Reno or Carson.
I love, ‘Reno 911′. Best show on tv except ‘24′. IMHO
Bantering: Yeah, it just breaks my heart what happened to Truckee… OB’s Board, Bar of America. It was a great place until the Bay Area Equity Locusts descended on it.
Question: Why did Bay Area people have equity to move (and thus become “Equity Locusts”)? Who were the first to drive prices up in the Bay Area? Was it the dotcom boom that gave people such big liquidity events that money had less meaning? Was it something else?
Who were the “equity locusts” that descended onto the Bay Area to drive prices up and ruin it for the rest of us in the first place?
How did this mania begin?
I often wonder who is overpaying for all that crap in CA.
1990s stock optionnaires.
Many years ago, people from the East drove out native Bay Area residents such as myself. By the way, the old saying in Truckee used to be: “There are three seasons in the High Sierra: July, August, and Winter.”
Yea I hear you… i remember Truckee back to the early 80’s….
Damn, does this mean that the magical ATM machine under the kitchen sink that dispensed those HELOC $20 bills each morning is now out of order? Gosh, I guess these CA folks won’t be able to buy Starbucks, Quiznos, McDonalds, Hummers, BMWs, trips to Needles or Bakersfield, etc? What a shame. Also, no boob jobs for the trophy wife to welcome home her soon to be ex-husband after the long commute over the Grapevine, Cajon Pass, I-80 parking lot, etc.
Oh, under the kitchen sink! That’s where the ATM is! I’ve been looking all over the house for it.
“trips to Needles or Bakersfield”
If I cannot afford any more trips to Bakersfield, I simply cannot go on.
Likewise Quiznos and McDonald’s as tokens of conspicious consumption? It’s not that bad?… is it?
LOL.
Bakersfield and Victorville are a paradise compared to NEEDLES. Can anyone think of a worse place in California than this 2 bit, 1 horse, tumbleweed town out in the middle of no-where Mohave desert (on I-40 at the intersection of Hell and Heat).
Ridgecrest! Hands down!
I’ll see you Ridgecrest and raise you Trona.
I’ll see your raise with a Blythe and an Indio.
Barstow!
Damn, someone mentioned Baker below, so I’ll have to resort to the Salton Sea Offensive and go with Imperial and El Centro.
puedes decir Calexico?
You’re all wrong, Yuma, AZ is the worst place on Earth. No water, no vegetation, 120 degrees in the summer. Money magazine once named it among the 50 nicest places to live in the U.S.
Second Barstow. Hate going through that place. Yuma isn’t so bad (I’ve spent a lot of time out there at Yuma Proving Ground). There is actually some character to the town and the golf is great in the hotter months (cheap and no one around to see the houses you hit).
Sorry, nothing beats Trona. I’ve been to all these places but Trona is truly the village of the damned. It should be the default setting for all horror films. It’s straight out of Dr. Seuss’s “Oh, How Lucky You Are.”
Trona wins. I love driving through there on the way to the Panamint Valley.
Ooh, I drove past Trona (and Needles, actually) last month on the way home from a whirlwind tour of New Mexico and Colorado to visit relatives. Nice place, situated just to the left of the middle of nowhere…
I raise to Bridgeport.
Alturas could be a close 2nd.
Trona! I’ve been to Trona on a consulting assignment to the cogeneration plant there. Can’t think of many places more ugly than Trona — though you do get to hear the jets bombing stuff in China Lake next door.
“Trona! I’ve been to Trona on a consulting assignment to the cogeneration plant there. Can’t think of many places more ugly than Trona — though you do get to hear the jets bombing stuff in China Lake next door.”
Actually stopped off at Panamint valley on way to(or from) death valley. There was a neat little stopover, eating/lodging place there with a grand view of the panamint valley. Ditto for stovepipe wells right at entance to death valley. These are really tiny hamlets/rest stops, not towns at all. Way out there in middle of nowhere.
Johannesburg out in mohave at least has a real restored old west ghost town, tho it is off the beaten path. Back in 1990’s 29 palms was a snakepit and Joshua tree a deserted gutted ghost town. Lots of lonely desert burgs will revert to windblown tumbleweed monuments to the great RE collapse of 2007-2010.
I want in on this action…..with Victoville, Bakersfield, and Needles as the flops, I’ll gladly see your Trona and raise you RUBIDOUX.
How do you like dem apples?
The man wins with Trona…next deal…
Thanks. The ace up my sleeve was Zzyzx Road.
Went by Zzyzx road just a couple of months ago. Isn’t there actually a town of Zzyzx? That really *is* the middle of nowhere.
Ridgecrest has a great location. Easy trip north for good fishing and skiing, closer for those traveling to LV, easy into LA and backside into SD, and far, far better air quality than BK. Lived in both places and they both have their good sides.
I drove through Fresno once. What a dump. Some of those small towns near Palm Springs are real freakshows, too.
California really feels like at least three different states- the southern half of the state within 20 miles of the ocean, the northern half of the state within 20 miles of the ocean, and everything else.
Yukaipa aka “tweekweville”
Hey there! Now you’re hitting a little too close to home! Fresno is where me and my homies roll. How bad can it be? Kevin Federline grew up there.
**exactly**
What’s with all the garden spots? Try El Centro for “fun”.
You’re all wrong. CA is Blue State Paradise. There is no price *too high* to pay to live here. Just being able to re-breath the same air as ‘Tomkat’, Jessica & Ashley, the Baldwins, etc. is worth the 300-400% mark-ups. The most squalid patch of desert hellhole here is more valuable than a thousand-acre estate anywhere else.
Clear Lake. Gotta be Clear Lake. 45%+ of the population of Lake County is retired or on welfare, Wal-Mart is the largest employer in the county, the lake is surrounded by “resort” trailer parks that haven’t been resorts since 1957 and all of the single wides are still there, it’s 115 degrees with 80% humidity in the summer, and all the nasty green scum from “Clear” Lake blows down to the south end of the lake (where the town of Clear Lake is) and cooks in the sun from June until September.
Oh, and there are fewer teeth per capita than anywhere else west of the Appalachians, and late-night entertainment means watching your neighbor vacuum his driveway at 3 AM. Yes, I really did see that.
One desert outpost which i nominate for paradise spot #1 is Mohave. You have the ugly railroad tracts passing thru: a forelorn derelict local population, bad desert scenery, and an economy which depends entirely upon vacationers stopping for a quick gulp at the local carls Jr.
Olancha is a wasted forgotten roadstop on way to eastern Sierra.
Guierrmo near baker is a good desolate stop out in middle of nowhere. Barstow has to be the ugliest busiest tourist stopover of all. At least at baker they have the Mad greek, a good fun bustling place to eat on way to Vegas.
Darwin has em all beat, not even close. There are empty houses you can just move right into and start your own meth lab. People there don’t cotton to outsiders, which is ok, because you are an hour from Olancha!
Josh
All of these places are truly horrible. I would also add Barstow, and Baker. Would have to be a tie for HELL on earth.
Don’t forget 29 Palms and Yucca Valley…aka Meth Lab, USA.
Wow those places bring back bad memories…eesh.
“Don’t forget 29 Palms and Yucca Valley”
I kind of like Joshua Tree and the national park over there. And no one say anything bad about Amboy, it’s kind of cool now that it’s getting fixed up…and the crater is cool to hike up (in winter).
I wouldn’t dream of saying anything bad about Amboy - I rather like Amboy.
Though…not so sure ‘fixing up’ will do it any good. Bringing back the trains through Kelso might help…
Amboy is the inspiration for Radiator Springs
“Don’t forget 29 Palms and Yucca Valley…aka Meth Lab, USA. Wow those places bring back bad memories…eesh. ”
Remember going out to Joshua park lots of times during early 1990’s and passing thru those places. The town of joshua tree was actually a ghost town,with abandoned businesses and shacks all along rte 62. 29 palms was little better, with ragged locos and bums populating the depressed dntn area. The marine base at least kept the town from decaying completely however. Yucca valley was even then a growing exurb: the one bright spot in the entire Yucca valley. Attractive Doublewides and SFH’s on 1-acre lots were going for around $40,000 back then, at least the ones near the entrance to Joshua tree NP. Lots of foreclosed/abandoned/unoccupied properties all over the yucca valley back in the early 1990’s.
jeez - you are ALL correct - they all suck…. toothless meth head trailer trash in the middle of nowhere…except now there are a few mcmansions there. don’t ya love that they are several yards from ‘deliverance’ with cars on blocks?
most of CA sucks - but some is nice….
I nominate Needles, Snoopy the Beagle’s home town, and site of “oceanfront condos” in the desert (apparently this is not the first bubble when the California desert became a popular building site)…
‘During a story arc in 1976, Spike is rescued by Snoopy and a group of Woodstock’s friends, from a group of coyotes. The coyotes were apparently furious after Spike tried to sell them “Oceanfront Condos” in the desert of Needles. In 1983, Snoopy is convinced in a letter from Spike that the 1984 Olympics were being moved from Los Angeles to Needles. Snoopy, of course, comes to realize that the claim was false, after Spike admitted that his “friend,” a cactus, had told him the rumor. Spike’s last major storyline was in 1994, when he and his brothers Olaf and Andy visit Snoopy in the hospital. They leave shortly after Snoopy gets well.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snoopy’s_siblings
P.S. I guess I am seconding the nomination — another poster beat me to it above
“All of these places are truly horrible. I would also add Barstow, and Baker. Would have to be a tie for HELL on earth.”
Lets take a stab at some IE spots which would make good choices for a post- apocalytic movie shoot:
1. South Fontana
2. Inner San Bernardino central core city
3. banning right off the 10 fwy
4. Industrial areas of colton and redlands near the Santa Ana river
5 roubidoux
6. Any area off rte 74 from Lake elsinore to perris.
7. Area around lake Matthew
8. Any unincorporated areas of IE
9. Norco
10. Foothill blvd between Rancho cucamonga and Fontana
11. Menifee
12. Southeast shore of Lake elsinore
13. area along Van buren ave from 215 west to the 91 fwy.
I want to start a movement to replace the Calfornia state logo from “The Golden State” to the “The Goldplated State”.
any you been to Mecca, CA? it is for those who can’t afford Salton Sea proper. Other side o the lake, next to landfill. I thought i had accidentally crossed into Mexico. Or Hell.
Slab City near Niland. This is probably where the phucked buyers will eventually reside. http://www.slabcity.org/
Another link for Slab City http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slab_City
From Wikipedia:
“Most of these ‘Slabbers’ subsist on government checks (SSI and Social Security) and have been driven to the Slabs through poverty but also through a strong desire of freedom from the American government.”
Spot the irony, kids!
How about Slab City near Niland (east shore Salton Sea)? Home of a Navy bombing range a community of tweakers straight out of the Road Warrior and thousands of illegals being smuggled north and chased by the border patrol on a nightly basis?
How about The Pyrite State
Oh, this thought was a great idea. Try and outdo each other on what place is horrible. THey are all horrible. Just great to get multiple opinions. The entire Mohave region (and all pissant towns truly blow chunks). LOL
I thought all of the companies (like Magic Mtn) were selling out to build more overpriced housing. So, people can live in the homes (or flip to each other) and no other jobs will be there. No stores, restaurants, malls, offices, etc. They will all be condos and condotels for the out of town flippers.
Alright this house was at 220k and the owner is defaulting on 4 other homes. I told my agent I give them 150k with 10k back and that is it.
http://www.homesdatabase.com/jayashton/cgi-bin/aa.fcgi?+NTE2N2ZiMzM3MzMxYTQ2MWU1ODQ4MTM1ZDdkM2E1ZmUSlI0iZbI78etCOGgOI6z6L%2fNnVte4iAXGr2jKXbpEtSKpKMzXPHftVr6pynw1c0qMPrECM3H4VQ%3d%3d
If anyone is living in the northern Virginia area stay away from this house.
http://www.homesdatabase.com/jayashton/cgi-bin/aa.fcgi?+NWJmYjZiMjkyNzYzMjBmNzZjZTUzYzEyZDk0YWE2MTQSlI0iZbI78etCOGgOIqv2LPJjVte4iADQ53bKEL9a+i%2fwLcfSQUv1T%2f%2f4iih6f13PJfUZcCO2EVmh
Don’t Mess With Manassas Park
What a great thread. Need to have one on the most horrid place in the entire country. Would be lots of nominations.
sebring, fl
I nominate:
New Orleans before Katrina
New Orleans after Katrina
If the world were to receive an enema, insertion would occur in N.O.
Dan- That’s hilarious.
New Orleans is a sh*thole but I nominate >>>
Camden, NJ - words can’t describe how bad this place is; it looks like those old WWII pictures of London after the Nazi bombings. Camden was never bombed (although it’s not a bad idea) but somehow everything there has been destroyed. The only buildings still standing are welfare offices, a bus station, and a few “community centers”. These buildings were designed in the early totalitarian style (no windows, no plant life) in case someone might consider the place remotely charming. Even Philadelphia looks down it’s nose at Camden, which is just across the river from the City of Brotherly Love; and the only good thing you can say about Philly is that it’s not Detroit or Camden. All NJ cities are horrible (Trenton, Newark and Jersey City are urban catastrophes), but Camden takes the cake.
I’ll give you Camden, but take another peek at N.O. before deciding for sure.
The Cresent City has it ALL:
Law Enforcement: Cops making $15k….imagine the quality and motivation…..who moonlight as private security for ANYONE with a few bucks. No job too tough and an equal opportunity abuser….will break anyone’s head.
Housing: A GOOD foundation in the city only sinks an inch/year. Then there’s the joy of public housing. Even the cops will not go into the Desire Street Projects.
Culture: Voodoo, scams, 70 year old strippers, and the dregs of society, all with a fresh coat of paint to make everything “acceptable” and “exotic”.
Politics: Need I say more? Vote, and vote often. Don’t live in N.O. anymore? No problem, just say you do and cast a ballot. Check out Congressman William Jefferson, who got caught w/$90k cash in his freezer, and re-elected by a landslide last week.
Quality/Environment: Above Baton Rouge, lining the MS River is what’s known as “cancer alley”. One petrochemical plant after another. Of course the river is where N.O. gets it’s water and has such a distinct flavor and color.
Then, there’s recently re-elected Mayor Ragin, Mr. Chocolate City, who demonstrated his extraordinary leadership during Katrina…..
Lastly, YOUR tax dollars are rebuilding this three feet below sea level cesspool so visit anytime and see what your money is buying and who’s pocket it’s going into.
Man, you should write brochures for their tourism board!
You obviously don’t follow the Philly media. They LOVE Camden! The stories talk about how Philly is the next Manhattan and with the upcoming shortage of million buck condos, the “only sorta wealthy” people will have no choice but to move to Camden. Its the next hot city! I AM SERIOUS!!! Well, not serious about it being the next hot city, but serious about the news media’s collective wet dream about Philly and Camden.
The last time Camden was supposed to be the rehabbers’ Gold Coast was in the mid ’80s. We all know how that worked out.
What I’m interested in is where do you see stories about the upcoming shortage of $1M condos… it’s more like a glut on the high end.
Flippers can’t even sell nice rehabs in Manayunk - the possibility of there being a Camden renaissance is slim to none.
Rock Springs, Wyoming. Much like the surface of the Moon but with a lot more rowdy drunks.
And to think that there are still sellers hoping for some GF to come along and way overpay for their piece of shit house. Last one out of California, please turn out the lights.
LOL …You haven’t said “turn out the lights ” in ages need to leave ca. I hope Ben writes about some of the expressions that came out of these threads someday .
We need to have a “pet phrase” thread some day soon –
“Don’t try to catch a falling knife”
“Turn out the lights when you leave CA”
“It appears that housing (stock?) prices have reached a permanently high plateau”
“The housing market is returning to normalcy”
“There is no stinkin’ bubble”
“There is no bubble about to burst”
“The housing market will not crash”
“Prices will bottom out in 2007 (2008… 2009… going, going, gone…)”
Etc., etc., etc.
Funny thing about ‘buyers have vanished’ is due to Real Estate is the new spectator sport in CA. So most everyone ‘knows’ its going down like the cheap whore. Only people buying do not have internet access. (Amish & The Elderly and/or the Elderly Amish)
LV_Landlord:
Nevada wins at foreclosure capital of the country
After eight consecutive months with Colorado posting the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, Nevada’s foreclosure rate jumped to the top spot thanks to a 12 percent increase in foreclosure activity from the previous month, RealtyTrac says.
LV_landlord - are any of these your former homes??
She is too busy counting up her investment gains to respond…
Hey they should start accepting wagers on this in Vegas.
CO pays 3:1
CA pays 5:1
FL pays 1:1
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
OT…….but here in Australia our media sometimes call a spade a spade.
“Housing boom ‘will end in bust’ ”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=145&ContentID=16181
Australia our media sometimes call a spade a spade.
I did read how in down under they passed laws levying penalties on all the fake bidders at the Auction houses. ’bout time. That too will happen in the US.
I must say that I’ve read a few articles from the Australian media, and it just seems to me that the media there seem to actually think about their subject (not just quote a few “experts”) and write rather well. I’m not sure if the media here in the US is incapable of writing well, or if they are purposefully trying to dumb down their articles so that people with a 5th grade reading level can read them.
Well, they have been going through this for several years now. Just wait until around 2008 in the US. By then most of the breathlessly enthusiastic reporters will be out of work and the public will only be in the mood for a sober assessment of the destruction.
My understanding is that most newspapers do indeed write at a 5th grade reading level. “Sophisticated” papers like the New York Times are written at the 8th grade level.
“Property prices have soared 46 per cent in Perth in the past year and about 136 per cent in the past four years. But there have been signs that the surge in prices is starting to hurt, with a slowdown in clearance rates and a drop in the number of homes sold.”
Clearance rates = qualifying rates?
Percentage of properties sold at reserve auction.
“But the retired physicist cannot unload the house…”
Move = -(price mass)g
bits & bux is so far down now… NPR FB interviewed
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6615455
Related story:
“Analysis
Government Looks for Ways to Ease Mortgage Risks”
I suggest monthly helicopter drops of cash targeted to land in FBs’ backyards…
Worst place has got to be Blythe. It is hotter ‘n Hades at midnight in January. No one lives there except all the prison guards. Nightmare is the word. Someone yahoo just got the idea for that place because it is the last stop before ‘zona. Man, everytime I have been through there it feels like it 200 degrees. I think they have only one stoplight, as well. Great aside here, last time I was there, about 2 years ago, some yahoo pulls his 700 foot long RV out of the gas station. No biggie right? Wrong! The joker had forgotten to take the gas nozzle out of his RV. I really, really tried to get his attention. Yes, I am serious, I did, as did another guy, but when you are driving the Titanic, who the heck can hear you. Well, he pulled the whole kitnkaboodle apart. Fortunately, his RV was unscathed. The nozzle, well, not so good.
I make the LA to PHX trip lots and look forward to Blythe when I’m blowing into/out of AZ. Blythe has a nice Starbucks and good gas 24hrs a 24hr Mcdonalds - although after midnight, they don’t have much food in stock other than some dried fries and some salads (not their speciality) . Blythe has purpose in the world.
yup, did the la-phx run for some personal stuff quite a bit and ya kinda started looking forward to makin it thru there. Of course, they’ve got the SLOWEST FRIGGIN DENNY’S ON THE FACE OF THE PLANET.
But Barstow has an In-N-Out, which Blythe lacks. Advantage, Barstow.
“Blythe has a nice Starbucks and good gas 24hrs a 24hr Mcdonalds -”
One out of 3 ain’t bad in baseball. The Starbucks is nice and new, the McD is the worst on the planet (they give a whole new meaning to fast food) and if you buy gas in Blythe instead of across the border you’re over paying buy about 40 cents a gallon.
Ugly, depressing desert town for the most part but drive north on 95 though and there are several miles of nice farm country.
If you can’t sell in California, how are you going to buy in Oregon or Washington? Surprise, Surprise, no more equity locust of California GF’s. I sold in Torrance, CA in Nov. 2005 and I have been renting in Portland since. I am looking forward to putting my equity to good use here once prices fall…I would have thought the bubble would have burst in 2003. Thank God I didn’t cash out then. This whole bubble is built on a house of cards (zero down, suicide loans).
What is your point? It sounds like haha I got mine now screw everyone else. You are part of the disease.
But he’ll eventually be the cure. Assuming OREqtyLocust has equite (which, from his brief note, you could…), he’ll buy in, helping end the downturn. I have no clue what price he’ll consider cheap enough to make the move… but all of us have one.
Just don’t buy in 2007… homes are so toast that year. When? That’s worthy of its own thread.
Neil
You are part of the disease
Baloney. People who sell and rent because the fundamentals don’t make sense for owning are part of the cure, not the disease. Actually I’ll go further - they are the cure.
The disease of greed.
Thanks it’s nice to be part of something. Hey I got lucky. I save for a downpayment in 1997 and worked hard to pay my mortgage for nearly 10 years. I never borrowed against my equity and paid extra each month on my mortgage. I earned mine and got lucky to sell at the top. I’m won’t buy back in at the top. I did it the old fashioned way, so I don’t see myself as greedy, just smart and lucky. The old adage “buy low, sell high” worked out for me. But part of my luck was that I wasn’t in a position to cash out in 2003.
Spend two winters here first (this one is, so far, a typical one). In 1979, realtors were knocking on doors asking folks if they wanted to sell their house. In 1980, your Portland house could be on the market for a year with no offers.
Yeah, I went through my first winter here last year. It was horrible, it rained every day. And this winter is worse ;). Thanks for the advice about waiting. It’s hard to be patient.
I talked to a realtor this weekend and he told me he had five short sales he was trying to work…..here is my question. Is it even possible to short sale if the mtge is packaged in an MBS. Also, is it possible to short sale if you have a second mtge…..because you know the second will not get anything?
By the way, I am in North Texas.
slightly OT but how about the Iraq war wind down 07 ?
100k truck drivers coming home to roost , so to speak
No, 100K unemployed. They won’t drive for the prices that the Mexicans will.
It’ gonna be bad.
Oh, absolutely. The near future is going to see the juxtaposition of lax immigration policy with serious economic hardship. This is going to be a serious problem when the economy turns.
1. Certainly not all truck drivers. One shrink & one software geek both got deployed.
2. Probably more pointed, how many civvie contractors are over there? Everything from food slopping chow hall to electrical engineers working in vain to restore power to that shi*hole.
Well! Too hell with all of you. I’m moving to Montreal. (Parlez-vous Francais?)
Here’s an NOD (notice of default), but 445 per SF?
http://vcmls.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Ventura&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENT=ODD/PoQlGyK/7qaWlEx7Dw==
Short sale . Where is the deal? 5-10% off. Let them forclouse and sit on the market til spring. Don’t you think you would get a better deal while the bank ownes it and are paying taxes, insurance, maintanence?
vote is in http://post.polls.yahoo.com/quiz/financeresults.php
Listings are down 30% in my town from 2 months ago. It reminds me of the tsunami videos I saw from Thailand. Right now the water is pulling back for the huge wave that is coming in March. Time to run for the high ground and watch the wave of listings destroy the market in the Spring
March? You won’t have to wait that long in California. The 2nd wave will be in late January. 3rd in February, and in March a nice big 4th wave. By then, we ought to be out of looters.
Neil
More anecdotal evidence from Cali. Called a listing agent for a home that is in probate today. Mommy cheated, Daddy got jealous and shot her and himself dead, now the agent represents the kids in probate. Home has been listed for several months between 770-799k. I offered 650k. She just scoffed and said, “My goal is to get as much as I can for the kids.” They owe les than 200k on the loan, so I guess 450k profit is not enough? I told her I would be back in a few months with an even lower offer. I doubt she cares as much about those kids as she does in lining her pockets with a hefty commission.
I’m not sure I agree with you on this. She’d probably let it go for $750k and the $100k difference between your offer and her current low ball is only about $1,500 to her after all the cuts. The $9,750 (her cut again) she’s turning down would be very helpful right now. My guess is that she really does feel bad for the kids in this situation - who wouldn’t? - and is trying to get them more.
Unfortunately, she is one of the ones who don’t understand markets and how quickly they can turn. So while trying to do a good thing she is hurting the people she (maybe) is trying to help. There are good hearted realtors out there and this is too tough a situation to give a generalized poor opinion to.
On the other hand, I have to question you about offering a price only 15% below the high. Most of us feel many areas will see 40% or more declines (if they had huge run ups) and the IE will be one of the hardest hit. Be patient. Two more years that house will probably be in the high 3’s or low 4’s.
SD Re Bear: thanks for the reply. You might be right, but I did speak to her personally and she started with all of the “this market is different” crap, “this is how I put food on my table” and comments of the like, which I left out of the earlier post for simplicity’s sake. I certainly hope for a 40% haircut, but only time will tell. In this case, I could comfortably afford the home and would never leave (unless forced to). It’s a beautiful, newer, large home in an exclusive area of 900k homes, huge lot, swimming pool, rock water fall, fire pit, the works.
Of course we all feel bad for the kids. This was a high-profile case and I knew the mother personally. I think she IS actually hurting the kids by not resolving the estate timely. She admitted she had NO written offers, not even a lowball one. I
Dang. Had a nice long post and it got eaten. Will try to recreate:
She sounds like a typical realtor. Sorry for the doubt. It’s too bad we can’t find realtors with both hearts and brains and most I know have neither.
Did she present your offer to the kids? If not, is there a way to go to them directly. And if you haven’t put in a written offer but you really want it - why not put in a written offer.
Is the house where the murder/suicide took place? If so, they have to disclose it (as do future buyers) and that will scare off a lot of buyers. I am not a believer in Amityville type stories but I would be reluctant to buy it simply because of the future disclosure.
Will be interested to hear how this turns out!
I never made a written offer, but I still might. I just don’t want to jump back in too soon, even at 15% off. I might get an even better house for 30% off if I wait a couple years.
The murder was done in a public place, not at the house, thank goodness. Nobody saw it coming, just one of those freak things. I’ll post the outcome under later CA threads since this one will be buried by then.