Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For December 14, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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has anybody seen the underperformance from wci the last week?
looks like there is big big trouble brewing at their flagship “one bal harbour”
remember the management (bal harbour is their main project) said that officially 100% is sold. make sure you see the link to condoflip (takes maybe 5 secounds) put this is an eyeopener….
http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Just a quick scan, but I think I counted 93 units for sale or resale out of 260… 36%! Wow. One Bal Harbour condos for everyone!
and they are adding week to week.
you would think that the closer the opening the smaller the inventory…….
From USAToday, “The percentage of Americans who fell behind on mortgage payments rose to 4.7% in the third quarter, up from 4.4% in the same quarter last year… Here are the top 10:
Mississippi 11.1%
Louisiana 9.5%
Michigan 7.4%
Indiana 7.2%
Ohio 7.0%
Texas 7.0%
Georgia 6.9%
Alabama 6.8%
Tennessee 6.8%
West Virginia 6.4%
Link: http://tinyurl.com/ymnhh8
To be honest I’m surprised that the change isn’t much higher than that, given all the recent articles about large increases in actual foreclosures in areas like CO and MA. Falling behind on mortgage payments of course is a leading indicator of foreclosure activity, so I would think if foreclosures are curving up that mortgage delinquencies would be going up faster. Given that a lot of the increases are due to losses in the auto industry and due to Katrina, that to me indicates that delinquencies due to ARM adjustments are probably flat compared to last year.
Historically speaking, the delinquency rate is the highest (outside of the hurricane-influenced Q4 2005) since Q2 2003. Also, keep in mind that even in the depths of the most recent recession (Q3 2001) the mortgage DQ rate only hit 5.35%. So I would argue the latest national DQ level of 4.67% is pretty negative news. Given all the reckless financing we’ve seen, I expect us to top 5% next year, and possibly set a new high if the economy craps out. Tough to say whether and when that’ll happen though. Some more thoughts on the recent figures, some charts, etc. are at my blog if you’re interested:
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com
An 8% increase in foreclosures should scare the crap out of you! The number is huge and since these numbers reflect processes started in March, 2006 expect much worse figures.
Just read the USA today article - it is even larger than reported bwecause over 14% of subprime borrowers were late. Subprime borrowers made up the single largest group of purchasers between 2003 - 2005 (see FDIC: Scenarios for the Next Recession - March 2006). The historical percent of home ownership has been 64%, during this bubble the % increased to 71%; the FDIC expects 64% to be the norm as a result this debacle.
tn,ms,ga are kinda suprising as biz is healthy there
MS, LA, TN, TX, GA, AL….
Oh…I wish I was in the land of cotton, old times there are not forgotten…Look away, look away, look away, Dixie Land!
They might be writing a new verse to an old song…..
Katrina and lots of poorer (and some not so poor) folk who didn’t understand the IO/ARM/neg AM deals.
Dan — no offense, but I like the lyrics of “Dixie” just they way they were written. I doubt that anyone would confuse Federal Reserve thinking with Southern thinking. Carpetbaggers — now, that sounds like a perfect match to me. Didn’t they include the Wall Street Gang?
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I really don’t wish the man ill, but if it has to be someone, at least it’s a Democrat.
Senate control hangs on hospitalized member’s health
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/12/14/johnson.ill/index.html
From today’s WSJ, “New home construction is plummeting. Car sales are weakening. Investors have driven long-term interest rates well below the short-term rates set by the Federal Reserve. All these factors are present today, and all have been precursors of past recessions.
But the U.S. central bank and much of Wall Street are now betting that the old rules don’t apply, and that a recession next year, while possible, is unlikely.
‘This time will be different,’ Ed Leamer, who heads the forecasting center at the University of California at Los Angeles’s Anderson School of Management, predicts in a report. ‘This time the problems in housing will stay in housing.’ It’s a prediction, he admits, that ‘keeps us up at night.’”
Is it really different this time — will the problems in housing stay in housing?
profs and other gov workers sleep tight- they risk nothing
I disagree, When property tax takes a hit State and local will not be far behind
Agreed. My local gov is hiring new employees like there’s no tomorrow. My bet is that they’re right.
I work in local gov’t and while they are hiring at a very fast pace it is still an organization that is dominated by dinosaurs. Most of the people I work with are in their 50’s & 60’s. I am only 25. Most of the loss of gov’t jobs will be through the phasing out of old positions where the worker retires.
No offense gekko but, i always thought it was curious how people think that excusing themselves for being rude beforehand gets them a pass to be rude. “i hate to stink up the place but, here comes a fart.”
MDMORTGAGEGUY, This disturbing trend that you put so eloquently is a part of the larger lack of etiquette so often seen. It’s something like “I don’t mince my words” is just another way of saying, “I’m a classless, crass, uneducated idiot. Welcome to the uncompassionate Jerry Springer world.
Gekko, while I too am a Republican, your comment is in poor taste. Please take a moment to consider what you have said. You may want consider offering an apology.
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I apologize to all who I may have offended. But I can’t help wondering how some of you would react if this was Bush that fell ill.
Even though I do not care for our President or his policy’s. He is still a human being with family and friends who love him, and I would pray for his speedy recovery as I do for the Senator.
“Human”?? You haven’t been paying attention.
I can force any Democrat to toast the man’s health with one word. Cheney.
Economist, I was about to write a comment to the effect that I would find it hard to find compassion to pray for our president’s speedy recovery (although I would not wish him to die,I want him to be alive to witness the aftermath of his presidency). Then I read your comment and thought that he is not so bad, considering the alternatives. I think I would even pray for him, because in so doing I would be praying for this country.
Gekko, I’m sure at least ten on this blog wish for the quick death by GWB and maybe they wish OBL would carry out the deed. This is what Americans have become.
amend that to “quick death of GWB
This has already happened….politically at least.
Come on folks. The “Us against Them,” is a way to divide us. And therefore, be conquered.
Rebublicans vs Democrats, Liberals vs Conservatives is a smoke screen! It keeps you working, paying taxes and mass consuming, all the while feeling you have some input to the GOV. Does anybody really believe we have a GOV by the people for the people anymore?
Both parties are controlled by the wealthy class and both vote the same on globilsit issues that steal power from the working class and thier soverign nations (what’s left of them).
The real struggle throught the history of this country is, and always has been, the Working class vs the Wealthy class! The rich people are not benevelent. We did not get the 40hr work week, health benefits, sick leave, etc., because the wealthy class gave them to us. People went on strike, protested in the streets, women and childern were clubed by the police. There were many intense struggles.
If nothing else, 9-11 signaled - Times are Changing! The risk of losing some or all of our cushy lifestyles is probably the greatest since 1929. I believe the housing bust will affect us all.
Time is running short. Good luck to all!
EXCELLENT EXCELLENT post Suspicious2.
Seconded.
Thanks.
Watch this film!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786048453686176230&q=terrorstorm+deluxe
Couldn’t reply below your above post Suspicious 2! But I too support & agree w/your excellent comments completely, .
“I believe the housing bust will affect us all.”
I totally agree!
I’m glad to see there are enlightened people out there!
There is hope for us all.
Your remarks are ill-considered and deeply offensive, Gekko.
Gekko
You’re right. If it was Bush a lot of people would be dancing in the streets. Myself being one (and I wouldn’t EVER have any thoughts of regret about danncing) and about 99% of the rest of the world - not just those in the USA - would be out there dancing with me. Just one question? At what point do you lock step Republicans wake up? Not ALL Republicans. Just those who wear blinkers.
Gekko doesn’t need to apologize at all. May all politicians, especially Democrats, suffer strokes. The world would be better for it.
Mark, lol.
Joe Schmoe,
Besides, I’d like to at least believe that re-gaining control was based on “merit” not exploiting attrition. How you doin’ man!
Very bad form, Gekko, and indicative of the morally bankrupt “win at all costs” mentality that infects the Republicrat faithful.
Sammy,
You sure that’s “just” Rep’s?
What was very telling on our monthlong roadtrip in October, around the 4 Corners region of The Southwest (Beautiful country, worth a visit or 2) was the fact that very nearly every (90-95%) roadside political campagin sign we saw, didn’t have a party affiliation, be it Democratic or Republican. The fact that both parties felt it was safer just to say “Joe Schmoe for Congress” and nothing else, shows that they know, we are tiring of the 2 party system…
That may be true, that candidates are less inclined to identify their party presently, especially if you are strictly talking about Congressional or state-wide seats.
But in my experience, with regard to the majority of other (smaller constituency) posts, it’s worth noting that in small town America voters are choosing to support, or not, people they may know personally (or “know of” through someone).
So they often vote much more on a comfort / trust level, regardless of party affiliation - and there is less need for candidates to describe the latter.
DinOR,
“Republicrats” refers to the fact that both parties have become equally corrupt and worthless - indistinguishable, with not a dime’s worth of difference between them. The Republicans used to hold the moral high ground, but in the current Parliment of Whores, to use PJ O’Rouke’s apt label, virtually all of today’s politicos of either party are on the make and on the take - whores and swindlers, in other words.
Does that clear things up?
Amen… The collective criminal mind of those who’ve held power will do anything to keep it. They know no bounds.
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yes, we are all joined in a vast conspiracy against YOU.
Yes we know.
Sammy-unfortunately, morally bankrupt and win at all costs infects a very large portion of our society. Agree with your very bad form comment. I am also a Republican.
I didn’t know that one party or race had a lock on the ‘win at all costs mentality’, I thought that just came with all you baby boomers out there.
Let me clarify: both parties are equally sleazy, corrupt, and incompetent. Born too late to be a baby boomer, but yeah, I’ve noticed a huge amount of self-indulgence and screw-future-generations-I-got-mine attitude among the Boomers. Not all, but most.
LOOK WHO’S CALLING THE KETTLE BLACK!
There is only one way this could have happened. Dick Cheney has sacrificed a few new born babies to his Master.
Gekko, are you kidding me? What a disgusting, shameful comment.
Totally in character for this charade of a person.
Block the asshole BEN !!!
Gekko, I understand you mean no ill will. I can see your point of view. Maybe all these people should watch reruns of the Democrap convention and read the Democrat platform before they judge Gekko. It’s pure socialism.
Hey bill when are you going to Iraq to defend us from Islamofacist hordes?
I thought so.
Right after you wave the white flag. Oh you just did.
Don’t feed the troll.
“Don’t feed the troll. ”
BINGO.
A true “Compassionate Conservative”
Article in the Washington Post this morning on people falling behind on payments on their toxic morgages.
Good to see they can still occasionally turn out an actual news story. Yesterday the first piece on the front page was a breathless, blow-by-blow account of the battle between Billy Graham’s sons on where he should be buried.
Good post.
Ran into a old school buddy of mine last night as I tried to get some Christmas shopping done…and the 20 minutes we spoke…I basically felt that we truly are living on a stack of cards and the bottom one has just crumpled. He told me how he and his wife bought into this housing bubble 2 years ago after feeling that they were basically the last one’s to commit. WIth all the media coverage and what he angerly states the governments best kept secret “the bubble of all bubbles”…with his wife 6 months pregnant (recently laid off by a major airline 2 years ago) credit card debt that financed all the needed items for his home and his job at Ford looking less and less secure…the look of worry on his face said it all. His remark that even Walmart was looking more and more like a luxery shopping trip - I can’t help but sense that a market correction may indeed be an all out panic - the image of a packed mall..then someone sreams fire and thousands rush at once to a door that can only let out one at a time….I can only say this…if my buddy is any indication of what people are sensing….buying a nice fallout shelter may be a excellent investment right now…
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The future is VERY hard to predict. You may look around you and draw certain conclusions based on anectdotal evidence, but you could be wrong. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Stay diversified. Own a chunk of every asset class and buy and hold for the long term. This includes cash, bonds, stocks, and real estate. It’s too hard to predict what economies and markets do - especially over the short term. Nobel Prize winners with Ivy League PhDs and vast resources are usually wrong in their predictions - how are you and I going to do it? “More money has been lost anticipating a bear market than during one.” Develop a long-term plan and stick to it and stay the course. Good luck all.
Good advice Gekko. My buddy, a Bob Brinker fan, is overweighted in RE and knows he’s going to take the bitter pill with 3 properties in Florida. The lessons I learned were the real estate bubble of the late 80s and I sold near a bottom in 1996 - and the stock market bubble of the late 90s. Starting in 2001 I made a point of diversifying.
You left out precious metals Gekko. The percent of probability you think that the economy will go to hell should be equivalent to the percent of precious metals you allocate in your portfolio. Also I heard recently on talk radio that no turn around point for Iran to go nuclear is within one year from now. This Iraq war is going to look like a tea party.
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Precious metals ain’t going to help you if we get hit with a nuke. i don’t believe in gold or other precious metals. The historical real returns are near zero. And when you factor in the cost to store and insure them, the returns are negative.
My current allocation is below. I wish i could dollar cost average into a house!
CASH 19%
BONDS 15%
STOCKS 66%
REAL ESTATE EQUITY 0%
Precious metals will withstand nukes way better than stocks, bonds, or especially cash.
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check out this chart -
http://indexfundfan.wordpress.com/files/2006/07/2006-07-09-gold-returns.jpg
You two might want to get a room. We all got the message long ago.
Precious metals will withstand nukes way better than stocks, bonds, or especially cash.
Exactly right packman. I think Gekko makes the assumption that every square foot of America will be ground zero. More likely there will be 2 or 3 nukes detonating in strategic places by Iran/North Korea. And one of those places is probably Israel. The other two will be Washington D.C. and one of the five largest U.S. cities. those nut cases in Iran and N.K. want to kill as many people as possible and strike the most valuabel places. I have serious doubts if Kalispell, Montana will be a nuke target. The odds are in favor of those who hold precious metals.
Captain credit - Yuck fou
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Do you guys like my chart above? Thoughts?
At the risk of getting C.C. stimulated by his fantasy of two men getting together, I will reply about the charts. I am aware gold keeps up with inflation in the long run. One ounce of gold could buy you a good suit in 1910. Onec ounce of gold today should be able to buy you a good suit in 2006. I stand by my asset allocation in gold - I think the probability the U.S. Economy will go to hell - is 10%, so 10% of my wealth should be in gold (and platinum). As for stocks, in the long run I agree. You know my views on that. Stocks outperform real estate. That is one reason I did not get in on this real estate bubble. I have a good 20 years left of being mostly into stocks. yes I do agree with the charts.
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we are on fire this morning. fresh new 6+ year highs!
S&P 500 Index
1,423.31 +10.10 / +0.71%
Dec 14 10:04am ET †
BUY! BUY ! BUY!
There running out of stocks! Buy now before you get priced out!
LMAO!!!!
Despite his extremely distasteful comment previously, I agree with Gekko on this one. Diversify and only buy when something is cheap by standard metrics (like rent ratio for housing). Nobody here can predict the future, but we can recognize when irrational exuberance (or irrational depression) has set in.
“Diversify and only buy when something is cheap by standard metrics (like rent ratio for housing)”
Stocks are expensive when the market is hitting new highs against gathering storm clouds of recession.
Gekko,
From what I can see, (years of wealth mgmt. experience) is that like it or not exceptional returns hinge more on what you “don’t” own! It’s just the natural order of things that in time successful people ultimately have their hands in just about everything on just about every level. I have one client that sat on boards of several companies. He was constantly travelling and it was hard to have his full attention for 90 seconds without someone breathlessly barging into his office, cell phone interruptions and talking to him while he was reading his e-mail. He honestly means no disrespect by this it’s just the demands placed on him.
We finally had a full 5 minutes and began “culling the herd”. He’s quit several boards, is selling a number of properties and we’re in the process of getting some focus in his scattered stock holdings. Look, if I had this guy’s money (I’d burn mine) but at some point it’s the same sloppy approach many folks that are struggling have. He’s just playing the game at a more financially rewarding level but his “satisfaction level” was nil. If you have friends that are like this and you can’t get through to them try this one: “I’m in a selling mood!” Hey, it works!
Gekko…your point is well taken….but I have been unnerved with my encounter last night that I have come to the basic conclusion…society is based on faith - the democratic way works only when people believe that what they are working for is not in vain. When at every cornor “experts” will get on their soapbox and preach life is good - life is fine - go back to your routine and keep paying your bills, I just become annoyed at the level of bs that bloggers here are well aware of but joe public has no rational sense of. I make no parallels to this thought, but pre-Nazi Germany had a common element…the public lost total faith in their system…banking-economic-social- and that burning contempt of government/banking system gave rise too the sinister evil that brewed deep within people which played on one’s fears and led Europe down a path that is forever marked in history.
“the public lost total faith in their system…”
And here we are 70 years later. Deja Vu. The spin, lying, bogus numbers are vomit inducing.
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I still believe in America.
Gekko - I believe in this great country also - I just don’t believe in the driver who has recklessly taken me on a drive through the mountains with bald tires and the snow is coming down crazy….and no guard rail to stop us from plunging down into the abyss….
Your loyalty is admirable, but I strongly suggest a backup plan in the event your loyalty is misplaced.
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it’s not just loyalty. it’s the genuine belief that America has the best political and economic system in the world and that we attract the best and the brightest people from around the entire planet. this is the key to our past, present, and future success and strength. Will there be bumps along the way, sure. But I reject the predictions of failure by the doom and gloom crowd. I am bullish on the future of America.
Me too, I still have a strong faith in the country. We have pulled through depressions, World Wars, incompetent fools as leaders, hair brained “little” wars (Vietnam, Iraq, …), and mainly we did not elect nutcases when we were hurting bad.
Gekko
Your post explains exactly why the US is in trouble and in decline and because of your way of thinking the decline will continue. One of the major causes which have contributed to the decline of every super power since time began can be put into one word. A-R-R-O-G-A-N-C-E.
Another cause of why super-powers fail is because they try and control foreign countries where the population ends up hating them. Another is when foreign troops invade a country to steal their natural resources like oil. Often under a false pretext like, “Bringing Freedom And Democracy.”
Which current country does that sound like? Tell me, would you have a problem telling us your age?
I believe in America, but my patience is wearing thin and it’s embarassing in oh so many ways to have gone from The America of my youth (1st grade in 1967, if you ask 1,000 1st grade boys what they want to be when they grow up: 843 wanted to be astronauts) and so much promise, to now when i’m middle aged (is 45 middle aged?, I read an article that says 10 is the new 15, we are raising up the kids without childhoods, nowadays) and I see how the world despises us, with good reason and having had the opportunity to travel a bit overseas, i’ve had many conversations with foreigners and almost all of them, I thought, knew more about what was going on in our country, vs our own citizens, believe it or not?
The alienation of the rest of the world has cost us quite a bit, financially, in travel. We have lost nearly 40% of our market share of the lucrative world travel market, a loss of around $300 Billion in revenues, vs pre 9/11#’s, as much as we’ve thrown away on the wars in the middle east. hmmm….
Upon return from a sojurn to New Zealand this March, I spied a large metal U.S. Customs sign, for incoming non resident visitors to our country. We now require both index fingerprints and a mug shot for our records. Just 8 fingerprints away from how we treat criminals~ sad.
” …had the opportunity to travel a bit overseas, I’ve had many conversations with foreigners and almost all of them, I thought, knew more about what was going on in our country, vs our own citizens, believe it or not?”
HA HA HA
Sure, I believe it…I also used to visit Europe frequently and was confronted by foreigners who purportedly knew about what was going on in our country…Did you ever ponder why they had to focus so much on the good old US of A? Maybe they were entirely depressed by what was occurring in their own nations, and needed a distraction?
Just a thought.
But Fidel provides “free healthcare” and “social justice.”
Quite frankly, I believe “foreigners” know more about the U.S. because they live in countries which are more affected by what is done over here. Also, many countries are relatively small, and cultures/languages/economies/etc. can change in just a few hundred miles. You cannot be insulated from the “outside world” in these countries. What goes on in different countries directly affects what happens to you.
In the U.S., you can drive for days and nights (even in TX, alone), get out of your car, and you are still in the “same” place. We have more resources at our fingertips, and the nation to the north speaks English (and French), while the nation to the south speaks Spanish (as do many people in the U.S.). We are fairly well insulated from the rest of the world, and can be rather self-sufficient. NOT because we are so great & smart, but because we have the resources (land, agriculture, oil, coal, etc.).
yes and the beaches are nice too.
OK you convinced me, I’m THERE!
I travel to 1st world countries and for the vast amount of my fellow citizenry (85% of you don’t have passports, thus you’ve never been anywhere-) that has never been out of the country and lives vis a vis tired stereotypes, that might have been true, once upon a time, but are so utterly ridiculous nowadays, sometime you’ll have to venture outside your comfort zone and take a look…
The standards of living in most industrialized nations is of a high of a standard as what we have here, if not higher. It’s hard for us, stuck in our myopic “We’re #1″ mindset to realize that they rest of the world caught up with us and in many ways passed us by.
“One of the major causes which have contributed to the decline of every super power since time began can be put into one word. A-R-R-O-G-A-N-C-E.”
The word IGNORANCE comes to my mind. Of course there’s DELUSION, ILLUSION, and B_LL S_IT!
Let’s face it; some people don’t want to know! They’re happy as long as they can pay thier bills. There’s no greater threat to Freedom than the satisfied slave!
I believe the housing bust will be wake up call for many.
Comment by aladinsane
2006-12-14 08:47:44
I travel to 1st world countries and
Aladin:
I’m not sure if your comment was directed to me, but FWIW the countries I traveled to were in Western Europe, all first world nations.
France, Italy and England aren’t exactly free of internal troubles. The conversion to the Euro alone is causing disruption to the average Joe’s finances, from what my relatives tell me. That’s just one issue.
I plan an extended visit next year, just to get a taste of a real cappuccino again, and restock my shoe closet. lol
But if foreigners like to spend their time examining our politics and culture, and then educating us about our own failings, God bless them, let them knock themselves out.
Arrivederci, baby!
close itallics
I lived in Rome for 6 months , my ‘commute’ was walking through piazza Navonna every day, but by the end, I could not wait to get back to the US. Been around the world, and seen my share of 1st world and third world sh*tholes.
The USA is the best country in the world and if that makes me arrogant, good.
For each bad mouther here, there are tens of thousands who would love to emigrate to the US.
You know, finnmanmy ideal life would be to divide my time between a certain village in the south of France, my family’s hometown in Italy, and the US. But I can’t.
There’s definitely things we can learn from other cultures, and to the extent that my experience has been enriched by having been exposed to another world, so to speak, I am thankful. But I’m even more grateful that my dad was one of the 100s of thousands that decided to emigrate, and the country he settled in was the USA.
People, seriously,everytime you feel like the US is somehow lacking or a terrible place to live, pick up an issue of Le Monde, or Le Figaro, or Il Corriere della Sera.
No place is paradise on earth, not for long anyway.
Those foreigners that want to come here, are from primarily 3rd world countries, who wouldn’t want to get out?
I’d guess immigration from industrialized countries (our peer group) to here, is at all time lows.
“I’d guess immigration from industrialized countries (our peer group) to here, is at all time lows.”
I don’t have the data at my fingertips, but I would agree.
However, may I share two anecdotes in regards to recent immigrants from industrialized nations.
1. A young woman from New Zealand arrives in USA, first as a visitor, meets a guy, gets married, voila now she’s American. She gets a good job, and after a couple of years in the States, starts to pi$$ and moan about how horrible it is here, she misses her country etc. etc.
I was sick of hearing her biatching and said OK you hate it that much here, but you’re taking a job away from a US citizen who was here before you. Needless to say, we are not friends anymore.
Exhibit B: Young woman from Canada comes here on a work visa…overstayed the visa. Proceeds to hook up with guy after guy, hoping to marry someone so she doesn’t have to keep sneaking back and forth across the border.
Again, all I heard from her was anti-American sentiment.
Finally I said, Kathy, if you hate it here so much why are you trying to marry an American guy?
Last I heard she had made her way to Australia and was trying to get with an Aussie.
I’m willing to wager that if the stats on immigration from our peer nations is compared with emigration from here to those countries, there would be more coming to the States than leaving.
But I’m only willing to wager $5.
A couple of women looking to immigrate via the Mrs. Degree method means diddily, really.
One thing about the rest of the 1st world that we have little in common with, is it is quite normal for young people from industrialized countries to take a year off and go traveling around the world, seeing it with their very own eyes, not from somebody else’s perspective and in my opinion, this is as important as going to college, broadens your horizon a bit and makes you a better citizen of the world.
Much has changed since my 1st long distance trip overseas, 25 years ago. People used to dress distinctively, for a given region, glad I got to see that, as people from all over the 1st world, all look increasingly alike and not just in clothing styles, they are just as in tune to what’s really going on, with the information flow, available on the internet, as we are.
Aladin…taking one year out before college? I know they do it in Sweden and sometimes in The Netherlands…but not in the rest of Europe. In the South of Europe young people live with their parents until their 30s because housing is very expensive (even before the bubble) compared with their salaries (starting salary for master’s degrees around 600 Euros…). The English sometimes take a year out because they have savings, their parents pay or they get into more education debt.
I’m European and “young”, I know plenty what you are all talking about. Just my two cents…Americans have been hated in Europe (better to say by some Europeans) since Russia became communist and they still do because it is part of their culture/identity.
I have lived in 4 countries (I’m barely over 30), Spain ,England, The Netherlands and now the USA…So far the US is the country with a much, much higher standard of living.
I too spend a lot of time traveling all over, to europe, the east and even strange places that start with the letter “I”. I love America. No matter what, we are and will likely remain a unique and vibrant corner of the planet. I fully support everyone’s ability to think this place sucks or needs upgrading.
Having just spent a bunch of time in Europe, I can say I am very glad we are not them. There are huge reasons we are different, not the least of which is that the folks who founded this country left there because they thought it sucked.
I can promise you that no matter what happens to the economy that the US will remain dominant 10 years from now. I can also promise you that the current president is no more the destroyer of the USofA any more than the prior one. And yes, I was happy to see him go. But you know what - he didn’t destroy the place even though he was a lying cheating scum. And I am sure this guy will not destroy the place even though he is a misguided, un-loquatious “Frat Boy”.
A brief news flash from someone who was in Europe during the 80’s - the “man on the street” there hated us then too. Big flipping deal. As far as I can tell there are no prizes given for the global popularity contest. When I am in a pub in London or a bar in Munich or Kyoto, once folks get over the fact that I am a Yank (its always been like this) the only time America enters the conversation is that people who have never been there seem fascinated by it.
And for those of you worried about the cheating bastards taking it away from us, it will be ok. Let them take - most of them never read “The richest man in Babylon” so they are probably going to be losing it before long anyhow. Fortunes come and go. Stop worrying about what the other guys have and make what you are doing the best possible. That is the key to America - you get do that here and it will actually count.
Well, I’ve traveled a bit. One of the advantages of being in the US Army 23 years. A couple of years in Germany, back to the US, then Vietnam, back to the US, then Korea, back to the US, back to Germany, back to the US, a year in the UK (London). Assorted tours in the US including DC and the NY area (ft Monmouth), Huntsville, etc.
My wife and I truly loved Germany and the UK. London is a very special place for us. I really do think the US is the best place to live but other countries do have a very good life-style (FORGET KOREA THOUGH). And a lot of Americans (who never get out of the country) do not realize that.
“My wife and I truly loved Germany and the UK. London is a very special place for us. I really do think the US is the best place to live but other countries do have a very good life-style (FORGET KOREA THOUGH). And a lot of Americans (who never get out of the country) do not realize that.”
Did you really live in Germany and London or in the US Army bases in those places?
There is a big difference between having to live with the local salaries/taxes/expenses and living in the US bases/own stores/expenses paid by the Army.
A couple of women looking to immigrate via the Mrs. Degree method means diddily, really
I know…that’s why I said I’d make a $5 bet using immigration stats, not my two anecdotes.
I have lived in 4 countries (I’m barely over 30), Spain ,England, The Netherlands and now the USA…So far the US is the country with a much, much higher standard of living.
NAM, you’re young so I’m going to ask you a Pop Culture question:
Whose CDs (music) sell the most in Europe - American bands or local talent?
How about movies…do American films do better at the box office than European product?
NAM, a good point. The first tour in Germany I lived on post. Simply did not have the rank or money to do otherwise. Also wasn’t married then. But 12 years later we lived off post, native (so to speak) in both Germany and the UK. And you are correct, it is a significant difference to do so.
Phillygal,
About music, depends on the market in places like Spain there are more local singers/bands because they also can sell in Southamerica, so the music companies can get a good return (also in Italy with a lot of singers recording Spanish and French versions). In other places like The Netherlands, Scandinavia…their markets are smaller so they have fewer local talents (and they always try to go “European” singing in English). Brithish and American singers/groups are still very big due to the language thing.
Movies: Americans are the ones getting revenues…few Europeans movies are good..they are soooo “artistic”, confusing and boring that several European countries passed laws giving a mandatory quota to the national films in the distribution channels (theatres, tv, dvds…) because their national film industries did not make enough money (people didn’t go to the theatres to see the boring, “sophisticated” stuff). There is one exception, the British movies are still good. They have a serious film industry based on what the people want and no subsidies to directors/producers.
European countries might be someone’s idea of the perfect place to live, but many of these countries are dying due to demographics. The author
believes that birth rates in Europe are such that in a very, very short time the Continent’s Muslim immigrants will outnumber the indigenous populations of Spanish, French, Dutch and so on—and that this is not a good thing.
“Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries.”
“America Alone” by Mark Steyn
http://www.amazon.com/America-Alone-End-World-Know/dp/0895260786/sr=8-1/qid=1166132881/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-7100299-1173760?ie=UTF8&s=books
Why should we really be concerned what other countries think of US? Really.
It’s the same mentality that drives people o buy homes and cars they cant afford because they are worried about what their friends and neighbors think of them.
In my experience traveling the world, people are fascinated by America, especially if they have not been there or travelled extensively. I’ll never forget travelling in India and having people stop me to take pictures with me. A real life American.
>Tell me, would you have a problem telling us your age?
I’m 37. What’s your point?
I’ve lived in Britain where I was born, Israel, Australia, and the US. I am a citizen of the UK and Australia. In material standard of living relative to income and cost the US and Australia are way ahead IMO… Advantage of the US over Australia is a bigger labor/opportunity market more ways and niches to get ahead if you want to. Australia is a bit more relaxed. Otherwise they are very similar. Australia has a lot of the fiscal issues etc. much better worked out though. Yes, Australia probably is the best country in the world
But I’m here in the US.
It’s, OK to believe in America! But don’t let the lying cheating bastards take it away from us.
Know who your real enemies are. Watch this film.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786048453686176230&q=terrorstorm+deluxe
Excellent!
I would argue that France is on the way to third world status dues to long term population declines in the working force, rising pension/goverment costs, and anti-buisness environments. Not to mention, it’s on the way to becoming the Islamic Republic of France, much in the same way California is becoming Mexifornia.
Stocks are out, ‘cept gold/plat/uranium. Physical gold, cash and pref shares with solid backing. Some long bonds to anticipate possible depression yield fall. Real estate ’cause I live here and its paid off - security estate. Generator, borehole, tight friends and family. ‘Probably get hit by lightning.
Never been a real fan of platinum…
It’s primary use is in catylitic converters and it doesn’t have much of a history, as being wealth and looks just a little too close to being silver, to confuse a lot of people.
Imagine the implications of being a buy and hold uranium player?
Mining stocks of course. Phew. Otherwise I’m out. Crash soon, when the RE fiasco spreads. IMHO, of course.
One of the wealthiest investors of all time used to always cite Mark Twain’s quote “Put all your eggs in one basket then guard it like a hawk”.
The future is very easy to predict. There are succesful individuals who have done this every year for decades. Some of these individuals may even agree with you and some of these individuals are happy to see your money. Your knowledge of financial investment can be painlessly etched in block letters on your thumbnail and your inflexible investment strategy brooks no dissent. 35 years ago I had the same arrogance - I learned. Good luck
You don’t get it. Six months ago it was 90% stocks. This is for now.
Sorry Grantland the comment was directed to Gekko.
“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Stay diversified. Own a chunk of every asset class and buy and hold for the long term. This includes cash, bonds, stocks, and real estate.”
The trick in diversification is to invest in each asset class only when that particular class is cheap. The koolaid servers at places like Edward Jones want you to jump into each class at the same time, and when five years have passed their investors find that they could have had the same portfolio returns from CDs, and slept much better too.
Yes you are right. I sold my Townhome because I figured it was just too expensive. Because I can’t predict the future I bought REIT mutual fund to stay diversified. That mutual fund has gone up, up, up. Can’t beleive it. Stock Market faced with a inverted yeild curve and a housing slow down goes… up, up, up. I don’t even know if the housing market will bust at this point? I am glad I own some Stocks at least.
50% cash
30% stock
20% bonds
I sold my NEM and PAAS because I figured a recession was imminent. Nope it looks like employment is strong and so is spending AND the FED is happy with above trend inflation!!
That big cash position of my will turn to trash if this keeps up.
I’m buying foriegn stock mutual funds and shaking my head. Might even have to jump back into a house if inflation is allowed to pick up speed.
I got a junk fax stock solicitation this morning about American Ammunition. That might be a good investment.
From today’s Milwaukee paper:
Fewer people purchased metro Milwaukee homes in November than a year earlier and fewer tried to sell them, Multiple Listing Service figures show. “It’s slow. Real slow,” Kathy Allison-Zimmermann, broker-owner of Re/Max Community Realty in Lake Mills, said Wednesday.
Growing supply: 37,044 new properties hit the market this year as of Dec. 1, compared with 32,279 last year
“When buyers even make an offer, they make a lower offer,” she said. “Sellers may be insulted, but we’re encouraging them to work with any offer.”
Last year, borrowers in over their heads simply arranged a quick house sale, Duncan said. With soft housing conditions afflicting many locales these days, he said, “that option has been taken away.”
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=541925
http://www.kitco.com/ind/kakani/dec112006.html
It’s very likely the U.S. economy will tailspin, but that does not mean the commodity boom will die. We’re 5 years into the commodities boom and most commodities booms last 20 years. The article posted on Kitco points to why the Chinese economy will continue to roar even if American consumers stop buying Chinese goods.
Buy Gold.
ENOUGH on the “Buy Gold” already….Jeez!
I’ve heard this SAME crap back in the ’80’s when all the talk was “Gold will hit $2,000/oz”; don’t miss out!……currency will be worthless!
Maybe the Gold Bugs can partner with the NAR…
Thank you Dan….Geesh
Historical perfomances are no guarntees for future performance.
Apparently, you do not know the history of money, where it comes from and how it’s created today.
Your paper currancy is created out of debt by the banks! Yea, I trust the banks to look after my well being.
Remember, if nothing else, you need to cover the bases.
Watch this flim.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4312730277175242198&q=America%3A+From+Freedom+to+Fascism&hl=en
The first half of the film taks about the IRS and how some agents have bailed and now pay no taxes. The second half it talks about the FED and money creation.
Above I recammended a different film. One about state sponsered terrorism.
Both are excellent and are a must see for those of you that want to know and are not satisfied with the main stream news info.
Here’s another in the same vein. Best of the lot.
http://www.altermedia.info/civil-rights/video-david-dukes-speech-in-flanders-dec-3rd2006_180.html
I disagree that it is the same vein. david duke preaches seperatism and bigotry.
Sorry that is not the message I am trying to get out in my video recamendations. Not even close!
Best of what lot I’m not sure off. Although I have some suggestions.
Rubbish that’s your programming kicking in. Your boob-tube conditioning. And you’re the one who distrusts the MSM?
Another great example of Zillow Pricing.
5983 Jamar Dr, San Diego, CA 92117
Sold - 10/30/2006: $475,345
Now listed at $518,900 according to the PrudentialCal site and hasn’t sold.
Zestimate - $675,418?? Probably due to 1900 sft.
It seems like Zillow could correct this with a one line software change:
if date_sold > 20060101 then set Zestimate to sold price;
Am I missing something here? A couple other observations inthe 92117 zip, inventory is way down, sellers do have power! You may have seen the inventory peak for the next five years. Also still see many homes listed are flips, there are several on Mt. Frissel. Thought these would be slowing down but they seem to be picking up with lower buy in prices.
Do you want a poster child for the kind of filth in my industry. I just took an app from a 75 year old widow who makes about $433 month sitting for an althiemers patient (paid in cash, unverifiable). In 2005 amc mortgage thought it was a good idea to lend her 81k on 85k appr value. The loan carries a 902 payment or double what her unverifiable income is. She is now buried in cc debt and was sobbing to me on the phone for help. I told her i wouldnt give her a loan even if i could becasue i didnt think it was a good idea for her to put any more against her home. Side note , she bk’d in ‘02. I cringe to think about my own parents making a call to some sleaze ball mortgage company some day and getting jobbed in this manner.
another add- prior to the 8i k loan she took out with amc, she only owed 26k on her home.
I have a feeling you’re going to hate answering your phone for the next 5-6 years.
You will have to work on the kind of detachment that used to be the exclusive realm of pediatric surgeons….
What did she do with the $55,000 she pulled out?
There’s a special place in hell for people who prey on the elderly.
I hope St. Peter puts me in charge of that sector.
Agreed phillygal . Boy did that mortgage company set the 75 year old up for a big fall . She went BK in 2002 so this 75 year old Lady has some sort of a spending or income problem .
No great financial spin here, just a couple of anecdotes.
My personal Zillow estimate has declined from $314,000 in August to $272,000 now, a drop of 14%.
I’m a techie who works at a maintenance facility; I hang out with “the guys”, one of whom is trying to sell his old house in the inexpensive part of town. We were talking about it, and the plumbing supervisor and the admin secretary were both well aware that the top of the bubble was last year, that prices have dropped, that it’s no surprise the guy’s house hasn’t sold. So that part has percolated into general knowledge. However, they both think that “things will pick up next year” and that home prices will start rising again.
Oh, yeah, and “it’s different here” because Californians sell their houses for a million dollars, come here, and buy a $500,000 house that’s twice the size, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Watcher
Don’t mis-read this because I know this mess is starting to unwind but I can tell you from personal experience that Zillow is a joke. Trying to follow the unwinding of this madness via Zillow prices is like getting directions off a drunk.
Amen. Find your assessors site, follow the recent sales, and do your own math. To use a worn-out cliche, it’s not rocket science.
Great news for SD-area’s stuck flippers and other FBs: A group of USD MBA students is forecasting that SD-area housing market is not headed down much and might even improve slightly next year.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061214/news_1b14usd.html
And now you know why I went to UCSD instead of USD.
DataQuick’s Karevoll: “The SD housing market has reached a permanently slightly-lower-than-last-year’s-peak-level plateau…”
Before we all take Karevoll at his word, can anyone remember what he predicted for 2006? Because if he predicted the “largest SD price drop on record,” it sure escapes my memory…
———————————————————————————-
Housing market in decline
Prices countywide undergo biggest year-over-year drop on record
By Roger M. Showley
STAFF WRITER
December 14, 2006
* USD students predict a minor drop, if any, in local market
San Diego County housing prices dropped by nearly 7 percent last month – the largest year-over-year decline on record – as one expert predicted prices have hit a plateau.
The overall median stood at $482,000 in November, down 6.95 percent from the all-time high of $518,000 in November 2005 and $3,000 less than in October of this year, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
PEGGY PEATTIE / Union-Tribune
Marnie Olia scaled back on her holiday decorations this year because the Scripps Ranch home is on the market.
Locally based DataQuick has been tracking prices since 1988 and previously marked the largest year-over-year median drop at 5.7 percent in December 1992, in the depths of the ’90s recession.
DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said it is unlikely that the local housing downturn will accelerate.
“It looks to me like prices in San Diego have probably found the level they’re going to be at for a while, a median around $480,000 to $485,000,” he said.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061214/news_1b14prices.html
University of San Diego college students “studied” the market:
———————————————————————–
“Maria Medina, 26, a visiting student from Monterrey, Mexico, said she looked at DataQuick Information Systems’ recent pricing trends and concluded that by this time next year, the median price of a single-family resale home countywide will be up 0.3 percent.
Bridget Mendez, 23, of Los Angeles was the most optimistic. She based her outlook on what she found in the South Bay market.
“When you drive the area, you see a lot of young buyers, new townhouses, definitely a lot of potential for the future,” Mendez said.
Brad Halas, 28, of Hawaii said the county’s condominium picture might brighten because of the drop in low-priced condo conversion activity and less construction. Next year may see further price declines, and then an upswing in 2008, he predicted.
“You’ll have to hold for the long haul,” Halas said. “You’d probably not make a profit for 10 years.”
Halas said that by 2017, “hopefully, I’ll have a good job that pays a lot of money so I can afford the housing here.”
Ding, ding, ding…. it appears we have a winner!
“Brad Halas” - though a bit optimistic on the 2008 upswing, perhaps.
[Does "Brad Halas" = "Brad" who posted this above?]
“Brad Halas, 28, of Hawaii said the county’s condominium picture might brighten because of the drop in low-priced condo conversion activity and less construction. Next year may see further price declines, and then an upswing in 2008, he predicted.”
I predict a brightening of the SD condo picture due to an increase in sign-twirling activity in my neighborhood…
““You’ll have to hold for the long haul,” Halas said. “You’d probably not make a profit for 10 years.”
So… why would you not buy the place 8-9 years from now, instead?
You know inflation is chugging along when the molten value of coinage exceeds its face value. Luckily this is not yet the case with paper money…
———————————————————————————
Coins carry more value in metal than money
By Martin Crutsinger
ASSOCIATED PRESS
December 14, 2006
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Mint is trying to avoid a meltdown.
Given rising metal prices, the pennies and nickels in your pocket are worth more than their face value – and that has the government worried.
Mint officials said yesterday that they were putting rules into place that prohibit the melting down of 1-cent and 5-cent coins. The rules also limit the number of coins that can be shipped out of the country.
“We are taking this action because the nation needs its coinage for commerce. We don’t want to see our pennies and nickels melted down so a few individuals can take advantage of the American taxpayer,” Mint Director Edmund Moy said in a statement.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061214/news_1n14coins.html
“ENOUGH on the “Buy Gold” already….Jeez!
I’ve heard this SAME crap back in the ’80’s when all the talk was “Gold will hit $2,000/oz”; don’t miss out!……currency will be worthless!”
Buy gold buy gold buy gold buy gold buy gold.
Nyah nyah nyah!
OK seriously - what do you think about a precious metals fund such as Vanguard’s?
Other than it being closed to new investors?
Historical perfomances are no guarntees for future performance.
Apparently, you do not know the history of money, where it comes from and how it’s created today.
Your paper currancy is created out of debt by the banks! Yea, I trust the banks to look after my well being.
Remember, if nothing else, you need to cover the bases.
Watch this flim.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4312730277175242198&q=America%3A+From+Freedom+to+Fascism&hl=en
The first half of the film taks about the IRS and how some agents have bailed and now pay no taxes. The second half it talks about the FED and money creation.
Aboveand just below, I recammended a different film. One about state sponsered terrorism and how Gov’s manipulate thier peoples.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786048453686176230&q=terrorstorm+deluxe
Both are excellent and are a must see for those of you that want to know and are not satisfied with the main stream news info.
Interesting
Green building is branching out
More companies pick higher environmental standards
11:09 PM CST on Wednesday, December 13, 2006
By FRANK GREVE / McClatchy Newspapers
AURORA, Colo. – Rows of little plastic domes dot the roof of the new Wal-Mart Supercenter here, looking like a marching band of “Star Wars” R2-D2s.
Inside each dome, a trio of computer-aimed mirrors tracks the sun and bounces its light down a reflective shaft and through a milky white lens, illuminating the stockroom below.
FILE 2005/DMN
Solar panels are one environmentally friendly feature at TI’s semiconductor manufacturing complex. The skylight idea is centuries old. But the mirrors, the lenses and dozens of other energy- and environment-saving innovations are new, and they’re showing up not just at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. but at other companies, schools and public agencies.
In addition to the Wal-Mart’s legion of skylights, for example, the store’s foundation is made of ground-up chunks of runway recycled from Denver’s old Stapleton International Airport. Porous paving in its parking lot soaks up and filters polluted storm-water runoff. Huge north-facing windows provide most of the store’s interior light. Used motor oil from the tire and lube shop helps heat the store, as does old vegetable oil from the deli.
According to Don Moseley, senior Wal-Mart engineer for environmental innovation, these and other efforts “are good for the environment and good for our business.”
That’s the mantra of the so-called green building movement that’s sweeping the nation. Among the adherents are financial institutions such as Citigroup, PNC and Bank of America; automakers such as Toyota, General Motors, Ford and Honda; and such retailers as Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Chipotle and Patagonia.
The next two new Major League Baseball parks, in Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., are poised to go green. So is the biggest privately financed development under way in the United States: MGM Mirage’s $7 billion Las Vegas City Center, due in 2009.
Future federal buildings will be green, too. The General Services Administration, the nation’s biggest landlord, announced last spring that it was applying stringent green-building standards to its $12 billion construction portfolio of courthouses, post offices, border stations and other buildings.
FILE 2005/AP
Several green buildings have been going up in North Texas, including a Wal-Mart in McKinney that has skylights and native landscaping. The key to the movement is a new set of standards that’s far more demanding, environmentally speaking, than local building codes. The movement invites innovation because it’s based on environment-protecting performance standards, not rules. That leaves it up to architects, builders and designers to decide how best to reduce energy and water consumption, for example, or workers’ dependence on cars.
The U.S. Green Building Council, a Washington, D.C.-based alliance of some 7,200 architects, builders, land use planners and academics, issued the first set of standards in 2000, covering big commercial construction projects. Standards for existing buildings and commercial interiors came out in 2004. Criteria for new single-family homes, public schools, hospitals and cookie-cutter commercial buildings such as bank and retail store branches will come in the next year or two.
The council’s goal is to “transform the marketplace” in real estate in the United States and globally, said Rick Fedrizzi, the council’s founding chairman and chief executive officer. “We’ll be at that point” in the movement, Mr. Fedrizzi said recently, “when it’s no longer called green building; it’s just the way building is done and they are simply called buildings.”
In fact, council-certified green buildings have been spreading like wildfire since 2000. In that year, about $790 million in new commercial construction met the council’s standards. This year, about $7.2 billion does. In 2000, a few hundred projects sought council approval. Today, more than 4,900 have registered for certification.
Who saves and when
It’s easy to imagine a green building rout in the next few years, based on the virtually unchallenged logic that buildings in an era of global warming need to be designed to minimize their environmental impact. Already, some retailers, such as Patagonia and Chipotle, are marketing their greenness as an attribute that sets them apart from competitors.
That’s likely to accelerate with the council’s upcoming release of a performance-rating system for generic store designs that retailers such as Starbucks and Whole Foods rely on for their new construction nationwide. If the council influences those portfolios, thousands of green buildings will start popping up across the country at viral speed.
“A lot of us think retail is the tipping point,” said Kim Hosken, the council’s director for new construction.
Headwinds of resistance to the movement are building.
For one thing, building green, at least until recently, was presumed to cost more upfront but to pay off in the long run through lower operating expenses.
“You will spend more on insulation and windows,” said Glenn Munro, a Toronto-based retail shopping-center developer. “But you’ll save on electrical costs by downsizing the air-conditioning and heating systems and so on.”
That takes patience. Governments and universities have it because they tend to own their buildings and keep them for generations. For the same reason, retailers such as Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Target, which generally own their real estate, find it relatively easy to go green.
But for retailers such as T J Maxx, Pottery Barn and legions of others who lease their properties, there’s little to gain from greening. Any savings on properties that they lease generally would go to landlords. And landlords, who often own properties only briefly and do business in highly competitive markets, will be hard to excite about green building.
A variant of that problem arises with new-home buyers, said Michele Myers, a custom-home builder in the Durham, N.C., area. Whatever the long-term savings on heating and cooling bills, she said, buyers rarely choose to spend more upfront on energy-efficient appliances and extra insulation.
“The paybacks are too far down the road for most people,” Ms. Myers said. “LEED may be great, but it’s for the affluent, not the majority of Americans out there.”
But that may be changing.
Costs falling
The added costs of green building – long assumed to be 10 percent to 20 percent more than traditional construction – are falling and may have been exaggerated, according to some who’ve built green recently.
“There’s an assumption of a green premium, but we haven’t found that,” said Jeffrey Smith, Harvard’s director of facilities maintenance.
Mr. Smith’s greatest surprise, he said in an interview, was “how interested building occupants are in these projects. It’s almost as though they’re looking for something they can believe in.”
I’ve been doing research on this, even thinking of getting some formal post grad education. ASU has created a new “School of Sustainability” with both graduate and advanced degrees:
http://schoolofsustainability.asu.edu/FAQs/Sustainability_FAQs.htm
Tx & Fred,
Shhhhh, don’t let the cat out of the bag! For all those who are looking for a growth area to get involved in—THIS IS IT.
Agree. We’ve seen on this blog how many of us say “green building” is one of our priorities (for those of us who want to build our own homes). Most definitely something to look into, IMHO.
I want my formaldehyde particle boards and latex paint. Throw in some MDF crown moldings. Disposable houses, the obvious next step.
The Portland, Oregon regional MultipleListing Service will soon become the first metro market in the country to allow real estate professionals to search for homes that meet green building standards. The search criteria will be available in early 2007, will feature a pull down menu that allows a look at houses that meet Energy Star or LEED standards, as well as individual features such as high efficiency furnaces, solar power, or cork or bamboo flooring.
I just attended a USGBC LEED workshop. It was very interesting and I am planning on becoming LEED acredited. BTW I hate Gaia loving enviroweenies and global warming alarmists.
But I do think green building strategy makes a lot of practical and commerical sense as there are smart economic benefits to green building. Environmental impact interests me the least. But quality of space and the occupants experience intrigues me the most. this is superior architectue. Good design includes environmental comfort, open spaces, natural daylighting, on site public roof gardens, etc. Efficient buildings in general are better buildings to live in and work in.
Here’s a typical breakdown of typical office building costs per/sf per year by Carnegie Mellon:
Salaries & benefits: $318
Technology: $50
Mortgage/lease: $16
Energy: $2.25
Office churn: $1.00
If you can reduce sickouts and keep your employees more productive by 1%, you are already saving more than your yearly energy costs. You achieve this with natural daylighting, views to the outside, thermal comfort, employee abaility to control their environment, operable windows, materials that dont have harmful chemicals, and even less obvious tactics such as providing bike facilities, encouraging use of mass transit, and so on. If you can reduce the size of a chiller by better insulating a building and using better windows, some of that savings could be directed towards something else, or creating another cool design feature.
I predict Walmart will eventually try to green all of its stores for the simple reason that it will improve their sales and reduce worker costs. Walmart has already proven that stores with natural daylighting have higher sales.
Things like PV panels are very expensive still, as are many of the storm water type capturing/recycling systems. Waterless urinals may or may not catch on (all GSA buildings will now have them). But the majority of green design is just smart design, and that’s never a bad thing. And to quote Eric Cartman ” I hate god damned hippies”.
“better windows”
Check out vacuum window glazing. Pretty cool stuff. The only manufacturer is a company in Japan working with university researchers in Australia.
I know a bit about window construction, the best windows you can get are insulated dual or triple pane Low e coated windows with a thermally broken frame. The coating technology is continuting to improve as well with spectrally selective coatings that maximize visible light and restrict infra red. If you can get a thermally broken spacer, even better. If you get laminated glass the pvc layer keeps out UV radiation as well as even better noise reduction. Argon gas in the windows is a waste of money as it bleeds out in 10 years.
Also, it does not make sense to put in Rolls Royce windows if you have a leaky Chrysler wall with air leaks and minimal insulation.
http://www.epsltd.co.uk/
The UK and Europe are way ahead of us when it comes to green (but highly efficient) HVAC and industrial chilling technology. This company is a case in point.
Here’s a post from the Motley Fool titled “rental property gone bad:”
——————————————————————————
“Is this the right place to ask for help dealing with a rental property that has gone bad on me?
I have a house right next to Goodfellow AFB that has stayed rented consistently for over 10 years. My property manager has always taken care of everything, and the rent has covered the mortgage.
This spring the property went vacant, and I never heard anything else from my property manager. I finally called him in July and he told me about all the things he needed to fix on the house. He said he had already painted, replaced the carpet, put in new kitchen cabinets, a stove, hot water heater, and a few other things. He did all this without even talking to me?
We agreed to put the house up for sale and he would take the repair money from the sale of the house. That was in July. I haven’t heard anything since. I write and get no response.
I’m out the mortgage every month, and I’m not making any progress towards fixing this situation because I live in Florida and can’t just fly out to San Angelo to sell the house.
I need to figure out a way to handle this that won’t leave blowing what little equity I have in this property. I’m also not sure what sort of tax options I have here. I’ve always just claimed the standard management fees, interest, insurance, and depreciation. What happens when the property is not making any income for me? Can I claim the loss?”
Jeez, this guy must be a dummy. Get a local lawyer to check it out! Lawyers cost money but not as much as getting a quick report when compared with loss of rental income. If that guy’s brtain works that slowly he shouldn’t rent out properties. Duh.
I wonder how many other people are in the same boat, being to far away from their “investment property” to properly supervise it. Even if you have a management company I sure would like to be close enough to at least drive by the property on occasion and take a look, especially something worth $100,000’s. I guess others are more trusting them me.
Brad — IMO, you need to get your butt into a car or an airplane and get out there and inspect that property in person, and fast. Then go to the rental agent’s office and see if it is even the same person you thought it was. Something is wrong with the picture. Either you are being scammed out of rent or the agent is withholding important information. You don’t go from having a great 10-year relationship to squat overnight without there being some other element involved. Something changed, you don’t really know what, and you will not know what until you go there.
How to Spot a Real Estate Shill
Ho Ho Ho
http://dallas.craigslist.org/for/248860484.html
Ho Ho Ho again
http://dallas.craigslist.org/wan/248872516.html
That link was pulled for flagging. Remember what it said?
First link cracked me up. When run through my Realtor-to-English translation program, it meant “Help a struggling Realtor — ME!”
“It really helped me…”
And the reason you are not giving it, free, to someone struggling near the bottom of your food chain is…?
$5 billion of S&P futs bought after a new high made. Wonder whose money that was.
Some big funds are unwinding today. Triple witching manana.
Buffett made big score in S&P puts in 2000.
I was reading…uh, “O” magazine at the Doctor’s office yesterday and there was a financial letter from someone who was going upside down on the 2nd home that they had bought to flip but now can’t unload ’cause of the tightening of the market, unable to rent, etc. Suze Orman didn’t beat around the bush too much telling the person: 1)if you cannot afford these unexpected bills you NEVER should have bought in the first place 2)told the woman to get a real estate agent to give her comps for the area and list the property starting at a price at least 10% below the comps. Maybe the Oprah crowd will eventually learn…..ha
Telling someone they should never have bought in the first place is hardly value added. I doubt I could get through an entire issue of that magazine with stomach contents retained.
Ooops . . . that comment will probably draw Va Infester back!
this is the same suze orman who was telling people that real estate was a good investment a year ago. heard it with my own ears.
A pre-paid 2 yr. Mercedes lease at COE in Los Angeles!!! Check out this listing!
Didn’t know where to post this story:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/13/magazines/moneymag/scraping_by.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2006121411
You have to read very closely to realize which is their actual problem…
you really did have to dig deep to see where these people are screwed. mom earns $150K but money is tight, in Omaha Nebraska?
And they have a horse. You cant retire on a horse or send your kids to college on a horse.
Last year, for instance, Brian’s parents gave the Schuetts a horse named Red for their kids to ride. They think it will cost a few hundred dollars a month to feed and care for the animal, and they’re willing to give up ballet lessons and gymnastics classes for the girls to pay for it.
This is also a bad sign. They have 4 kids and no future planning.
The second meeting might focus on setting up those automatic savings plans (Amy stopped contributing to her 401(k) when cash got tight; the Schuetts don’t have college funds for the girls yet either).
“And they have a horse. You cant retire on a horse or send your kids to college on a horse.”
No kidding! I just wonder if a dog wouldn’t be a better pet for the children. Also the grandparents did not make them a favour giving a present which costs several hundred bucks a month to keep.
Just think about it…their net monthly income might be around 10k but they have three mortgages plus prop taxes plus utilities (you need the heat on in the rental properties during the Nebraska winter). I bet that eats up half their net income (being conservative). My God! this people have no common sense! I would have tried to sell those two properties within the first two months of no tenants. Better to cut losses as early as possible.
If it gets really bad, horse tastes pretty good with proper seasoning.
Looks like they bought their house in May 2006 for $300K.
From the Douglas County website
http://dotccms.dotcomm.org:8080/infoglueDeliverLive/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=190&languageId=1&contentId=-1
2017 N 50 ST
OMAHA, NE 68104-0000
Sales Date Sale Price Book Page #
9/5/1991 $ 31000 1913 187
1326 N 129 AVENUE CIR
OMAHA, NE 68154-0000
last sale 1/26/2006 $ 117000
SCHUETT BRIAN D
21350 BONANZA BD
ELKHORN, 68022-0000
last sale 5/26/2006 $ 300000 2006 062405
http://webarc.co.douglas.ne.us/dcassessor/photodisplay.asp?PARCELNB=2225563046
Are those the houses they own? if so and with their current/previous level of income they shouldn’t be in financial trouble. Where did their money go?
“A closer look at the Schuetts’ finances reveals … that a big chunk of their income is eaten up by two rental properties. Brian … has yet to find tenants. Even when the properties are finally occupied, the area’s softening rental market probably won’t allow them to make enough to cover carrying costs. … But the Schuetts haven’t had a heart-to-heart about selling the properties yet because Brian has been so keen on making them work.
Where do you start – $150K income in Elkhorn, Nebraska a city that surely lost in the competition to be most expensive small city. This is too easy – like the first question in “Millionaire.”
- sell the rental units. Forget Brian’s ego attachment. He not only is bringing no bacon to the table, he is bleeding money. Bandaid that.
- sell the horse and try to rent it back, hourly, if it’s a local buyer. Owning a horse ranks right up there with owning a plane or large boat. It was a white elephant gift from Brian’s parents – hopefully they will be gracious and take it back. If your kids want to ride horses, rent them by the hour. Better yet, make the kids earn the money to pay for that.
If they just do those two things, they should be able to turn Cable TV back on. Sheesh. These people think they have problems… Many of us here should be so lucky.
New stat.;3000 appraisers failed to complete their contining education in Florida. They are out of business. I guess we are down to about 100,000 of them now.
Not related directly to housing, but important for our economy.
From China RE: the Paulson delegation
“…Although Paulson frequently talked with people from all circles in the United States and wrote articles before he left for Beijing to lower the US public’s expectations of what would come out of the strategic economic dialogue, US media and political figures still gave him a clearly defined list of what the US side wants from the dialogue, pressuring China to make specific pledges and concessions. This gives the impression that the US delegation is coming to China with a stick in its hand. If the US delegation wants substantial outcomes, they should first of all readjust their frame of mind.”
http://tinyurl.com/ymcxd8
also from China: RE Euro delegation
“…European Union (EU) foreign ministers reviewed its China strategy in Brussels on Monday. They delivered a summary of relations between China and the European Union, vowing to boost the strategic partnership.
In the seven-page paper, the European Union resolved to give China-EU relations a lift next year and beyond.
The weight the European Union has attached to its relations with China is a realistic response to the important international commitments and responsibilities they share.
The EU foreign ministers agreed that both should work hard to deliver them “in the interest of wider international security.”
http://tinyurl.com/yd2l5e
And further from China: RE: African Delegation
“….I don’t understand why some people and countries are so worried about the development of ties between China and Africa,” he said.
“I can tell these people that times have changed, the global current has changed and no forces can obstruct the trend of closer cooperation between China and Africa,” Qin added.
http://tinyurl.com/y8pd45
And from Moscow: RE - U.S., Russia Tangle, Stalling Iran Debate
“….The five veto-wielding council members — the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France — along with Germany had been scheduled to meet soon after to discuss Russian amendments to a revised European draft resolution on Iran.
But because of the diplomatic tiff over Belarus, the meeting was put off.
“It wasn’t the best timing by the U.S.,” said Britain’s UN ambassador, Emyr Jones Parry….”
http://tinyurl.com/umhh2
Or in my words a short summary: The US is going to concede technology to China, China’s currency will be allowed to adjust over the next 20 years. Europe wants to sell technology to China and if we allow the Crays to be sold, Europe would like to sell some of its LASER technology. China has been gobbling Africa, funding massive projects that will provide China with minerals, oil and coal. China does not care what the politics of the Africans, how many are murdered, who gets the Chines money and is not requiring accountability. This puts China directly anti to the IMF which wants political concessions. Tough luck IMF - China gets the gold.
And finally from Russia just when we think there is going to be an accord with regard to Iran; our ambassador tries to tie it to Russia’s problems with Belarus. Why do we maintain the falacy that “Our Way” is the only way.
I was in South America last month and I commented to my host how friendly everyone was. His reply “The US hasn’t interfered in South America in 8 years, it has given us time to forget.”
“China has been gobbling Africa, funding massive projects that will provide China with minerals, oil and coal.”
This is worrisome for the US, as access to resources represents true diversification away from the $US.
Indeed!
Melting of U.S. cents and nickels has been banned by the U.S. government.
Interim regulations go into effect today, also prohibiting export or treatment of the coins.
“We are taking this action because the nation needs its coinage for commerce,” said U.S. Mint Director Edmund C. Moy. “Replacing these coins would be an enormous cost to the taxpayer.”
It currently costs more than face value to produce cents and nickels.
Travelers may take up to $5 in cents and nickels out of the country, and individuals may send $100 out of the country in any one shipment for legitimate coinage and numismatic purposes. Violating the ban can result in a fine of not more than $10,000, or imprisonment of not more than five years, or both.
Are you surprised?
I don’t know if this observation has been posted already so pardon the redundancy if any.
Zillow is now defaulting to show 5 year price chart instead of 1 year. I would surmise this is due to the increasing number of properties that show YOY declines, even by the outrageous “zestimate”.
A good indicator we’ve bottomed out may be when Zillow defaults to a 10 year chart, or has no chart at all.
Yes , that chart was one of the more interesting pieces of data Zillow had . It was very interesting to see the huge spike from 1Q 2004 onward . My take is that Zillow has been used as a unofficial appraisal for the RE industry to support sales to GF’s .I don’t know what will happen when Zillow finally gets current if they ever do .
But your right that a 5 year chart would show the declines starting to happen .