“Taking What The Market Will Give Them” In California
The Ventura County Star reports from California. “Centex Homes shelved a proposal this year to build 94 town houses at one of Oxnard’s most congested intersections. With a softening real estate market, the Dallas-based developer decided to clear out its inventory of unsold homes before building the town houses, they said. Centex also shelved a project in Thousand Oaks for the same reason. And some other home builders are following suit.”
“The median price for new and existing homes and condominiums in the county dropped 8.2 percent, to $562,000, in November from the same month a year ago, according to DataQuick. It was the steepest year-to-year decline in more than five years. And the number of sales was also down, by 30.8 percent from a year ago.”
“The city of Ventura last year approved The Olson Co.’s proposal to build 172 downtown dwellings. The developer has yet to take out a single building permit. ‘They’re concerned about the ability of the project to be profitable,’ City Manager Rick Cole said. Thirteen downtown Ventura projects in various stages of approval have stalled, Cole said.”
“Prices have dropped 10 percent to 20 percent at RiverPark, a development of 2,800 homes in Oxnard north of Highway 101 and west of Vineyard Avenue, officials said.”
“Several real estate appraisers, however, said the rebound will take five to eight years, based on historic patterns. ‘I’m not sure that we’ve bottomed out yet,’ said Lindsay Nielson, a Ventura-based appraiser for more than 40 years. ‘We’re certainly in the trough right now.’”
“(Realtor) Joe Virnig in Ventura said he and others in the industry believe that the hot market began to cool last fall, even though data from DataQuick and the California Association of Realtors showed median prices climbing. Those reports, he said, generally lag the market.”
“‘In the field, we knew that prices had leveled off and even receded a little bit, though that wasn’t being reported in the statistics,’ said Virnig. ‘These numbers probably better reflect what’s happened over the last year.’”
The Press Democrat. “Sonoma County home prices fell in November for the fifth consecutive month. One measure of buyers’ unease is the number of sales they back out of before a deal is closed. In November, 39 percent of the sales that had been pending the end of October were not completed. ‘If the sellers won’t negotiate, then the buyers are going to say ‘I’m going to try down the street,’ said Rick Laws, (who) prepares the monthly report.”
“More sellers are offering incentives to buyers including paying a portion of loan costs for a year or two and covering closing costs. ‘We’re doing closing costs on practically every single deal,’ said Sandy Geary, broker in Rohnert Park. ‘It depends on how desperate a seller is,’ she said. ‘I think people are kind of settling down and taking what the market will give them.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “Sacramento’s central city housing effort, despite a mountain of recent hype, took so long to germinate that downtown largely sat out one of the hottest housing markets in memory. With the real estate industry in a slump, it’s unclear whether some of the ambitious projects conceived at the tail end of the housing boom will materialize.”
“‘Market conditions have deteriorated rapidly,’ said developer Mark Friedman, whose firm recently walked away from a 16th Street project. ‘At the moment, nothing will pencil.’”
The LA Times. “Citing the ongoing housing slowdown, KB Home has withdrawn from a joint venture to build a 54-story hotel and condominium tower that is a central component of the L.A. Live project in downtown Los Angeles.”
“AEG, L.A. Live’s developer and owner of Staples Center, has bought out KB Home’s stake in the project and will develop it entirely on its own. ‘At this stage, it’s best for AEG to just move ahead. They have ambitious plans for the whole L.A. Live project, so they have to go for it,’ said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.”
“‘KB has not been immune to the changing dynamics in the housing market,’ spokeswoman Caroline Shaw said.”
The Daily News. “Kyser said the slowdown in the housing market had an impact on KB Homes’ operation. ‘A lot of people have been expecting this, given the downturn in the housing market and the strain that was putting on finances,’ Kyser said.”
‘Existing home sale prices in the Bakersfield area will decline by about 5 percent in 2007, local appraiser Gary Crabtree projects. Crabtree said the number of existing home sales in November — 340 — was down almost 33 percent from the number of sales recorded in November 2005, the result of high supply and declining demand. ‘When that happens, the price is going to adjust,’ Crabtree said.’
‘In an annual report issued Thursday, the Southern California Association of Governments, or SCAG, offered a grim appraisal on life in Southern California. We’re poor; we’re undereducated; we’re stuck on jam-packed freeways; we can’t afford a house; and we breathe the worst air in the nation.’
‘For many months, Tracy resident Kevin Moser watched the slow housing market, with its high number of homes for sale, and concluded that now is a poor time to sell but a good time to buy. So he kept his current Tracy home and recently bought a better Tracy home - almost twice as big - with a pool and a large, quarter-acre lot. He plans to rent out his first house and wait for the sales market to improve, as he expects it to. ‘The timing right now is good for people to buy,’ he said. ‘I think it’s going to go back up. And I got a very good deal on the house I got.’
‘Much of the housing-market slowdown has been attributed to a spiraling of the number of homes for sale, pressuring sellers to lower prices to compete. For example, in February of last year, 777 houses were listed for sale throughout the county. That rose steadily, typically by several hundred new listings per month, to a high of 4,738 in August. Since then, the number of homes for sale countywide has fallen by about 500.’
‘Many homeowners put their houses on the market thinking of the earlier big run-up in sales prices, Natalie Shishido said. ‘They missed the boat, so they wanted to catch the last of the rise,’ Shishido said.’
‘Also, the median sales price in the county fell from $400,000 in October to $386,000 last month, the TrendGraphix report said. That’s down from a high of $425,000 in July.’
Speaking of Bakersfield, according to this guy, “the local market is RED HOT”:
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
Is there a realtors code of ethics? Can they just say anything?
I guess not. It’s nuts that these guys can say anything they want without any accountabality! NUTS!
And of coarse everyone … i mean everone in goverment knows this but the corruption in both parties is so bad no one does anything it.
Dont forget many were questing Enron before it blew up. …
The first bubble book, by John Talbot i read discussed how GSE had some funny numbers being changed in the shareholder accounts of their financial. This was half a year before the blow up of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae…. why didnt the auditors or SEC catch this?
I recently saw an ad on Craig’s List L.A. for a townhouse in Chatsworth (L.A. suburb) for $250,000. The ad linked directly to an agent’s web page.
Curious, I clicked the link, to a site where the guy provided searching for local homes, and despite considerable searching, could not find a single home in Chatsworth for $250k or less. So, I then went to ZipRealty and searched, and again, could not find a single home in Chatsworth for $250k or less.
So I sent the guy an email, asking him to direct me to the $250k townhome he’d advertised - no response.
Perhaps I’m missing something, but this struck me as the guy trolling for customers by advertising a house that doesn’t exist at a price that doesn’t exist - would clear and deliberate false advertising be enough to get someone’s license or Realtor certification pulled?
That happens to me all the time on Craigslist. I’m sure the DRE gets more serious complaints, but if you can nail the guy, more power to you.
Baghdad Bobs.
There is a realtors code of ethics . They are not suppose to say any false or misleading .
You’re wrong. They’re not suppose to say anything to suggest the now isn’t the best time to buy EVER. And besides, they aren’t making anymore land (pay no attention to those expired options), and you’ll be priced out forever (pay no attention to falling prices) and real estate only goes up (pay no attention to the media).
“realtor code of ethics”
Never lie unless your lips are moving.
“Tracy resident Kevin Moser watched the slow housing market, with its high number of homes for sale, and concluded that now is a poor time to sell but a good time to buy. So he kept his current Tracy home and recently bought a better Tracy home ….”
“Also, the median sales price in the county fell from $400,000 in October to $386,000 last month, the TrendGraphix report said. That’s down from a high of $425,000 in July”.
Sheer genius. Even if you did think the market would recover, Kevin would have to agree that he is buying at or near the peak, and the median price in this area is falling NOW….. for him that’s falling x 2. Why double up on the risk? I’m not so sure it’s greed, just ignorance.
“Tracey resident Kevin Moser caught a falling knife today…pictures at eleven.”
The question is: after carrying 2 mortgages for several months, will Kevin Moser turn that knife on himself? What a fool. He thinks it was a great deal! I can understand if he was buying a pair of shoes, but a house? WTF is in the Tracy drinking water??
Shouldn’t the news read “Tracey resident Kevin Moser ATTEMPTED to catch a falling knife today….. pictures of missing hands at eleven.”
Just got back from a visit to lovely Bakersfield. Some builders still in denial. Resale home inventory in the stratosphere. Some industrial and commercial property still selling. Cole just sold one of his lot listings in one of my old industrial/commercial tracts. Missed going to the Woolgrowers this time but made the Mexicali with their abundance of 180 Margaritas. Reminds me of the Jimmy Buffet song, you know.
Look at the photos that Ben posted if you want to get depressed. There are many of Bakersfield and environs…
Lovely Bakersfield ?? What about this Rathole is Lovely??
This miserable place is more like north Texas than California.
Hot, Boiling summers,and Foggy, Damp winters. When the smog lifts you can see the mountains, but that doesn’t happen often anymore.
Oh yeah, for 10 months of the year the whole place is a sere, ugly brownish colour. I hate this place! California Dream, my butt! Armpit of California is more like.
(and no, don’t even mention Taft)
I wonder what they do in Bakersfield during those long hot summers. I,ve seen several irrigation ditches and waterponds there. Taking a dip in the local irrigation hole must constitute the main recreational activity during the dreary long summers out in bakers’fried’.
Go to the DejaVu at night. $5 for a lap dance. Best value in the Valley.By the way, if you are from Earlymart or Pixley, you’ll love the big city style of Bakersfield, the late Buck and Merle loved it. Too bad that it’s got retrograde real estate appreciation now. The ‘value will come back’ in five years.The top of the market was in Nov ‘05.
Bakersfeild is a spot in the desert where some highways came together. Its surrounded by lots of empty desert. So empty lots should not be a driver for any prices.
There are 30,000 empty lots in Bakersfield.
“I’m very confident in the market. I think it’s going to go back up.”
Why ? It’s an enclave of white trash delta dwellers who own small boats and call themselves “The Captain”.
(Realtor) Joe Virnig in Ventura said he and others in the industry believe that the hot market began to cool last fall…
“In the field, we knew that prices had leveled off and even receded a little bit, though that wasn’t being reported in the statistics,’
Hey Joe,
I wonder how many of your clients from last fall enjoy reading that you “believed” the market had changed, but still you advised them to buy a house because it was a great time to get in the market….
Remember Joe… limit the eye-contact and maybe they won’t recognize you.
Yeah it amazes me how stupid some of these guys are. They’re just asking to get sued.
Cut the guy a break. The only realtor to say the truth and he can’t win with you guys.
When the elephant in the room is crushing the life out of your guests, it’s of little consolation for them to hear from you, “be careful where you sit!”
But sure, it does at least warn those ringing the doorbell.
Haha, nice extended metaphor!
Get me a list of all the buyers who he told the truth to and I’ll see about some slack.
‘We’re certainly in the trough right now.’
‘Trough’ implies a near term rise - I prefer boundless abyss
Pigs at the trough?
you’re right; 2004-2005 was the ‘trough times’. 2006 was the train; 2007-2008 is going to be the slaughterhouse (he says grimly hopefully).
pressboard box: like the name, very appropriate. Yes, I was puzzled when they mentioned that down cycles usually last several years (fact), and then top it off with this a$$hat saying we’re in the trough after just a few months! Based on historic precedence, and considering the size of this bubble, I’d venture to say we won’t be in the trough until well after 2010. I don’t know if it is “boundless”, but I definitely agree that an abyss is a better descriptor than trough! I guess we should just be happy that a media source actually reported that downturns last several years and not months?
thank you. To me trough describes the cross-section of a trough- either a U shape or V shaped graph. Maybe I am wrong.
Ventura County can use a slow down in development. They’re building so fast that the open space that made is so appealing and different from the San Fernando Valley is disappearing. Hopefully the slowdown will usher in more intelligent growth (if there is such a thing).
I’m trying.
you work for more intelligent growth in that area? cool.
Nah, Robert is a bar the gates, no one else can get in, I already got my exurban spread type.
I like Robert in most instances, but this issue chaps my hide.
The good news is that he will eventually fail and Ventura will face the same fate and the rest of LA.
Nonstop subdivisions as a result of people like Robert going just a bit further out to “lock up” their exurban spread that turns inner exurban neighborhoods into suburban sprawl.
“Several real estate appraisers, however, said the rebound will take five to eight years, based on historic patterns. ‘I’m not sure that we’ve bottomed out yet,’ said Lindsay Nielson, a Ventura-based appraiser for more than 40 years. ‘We’re certainly in the trough right now.’”
Hey, there ARE still some honest appraisers out there!
“…..rebound will take five to eight years….”
These are the seven most important words on this blog today. Third party appraisers who depend on transactional activity are telling you where reality is for this market. FIVE YEARS. HELLO.
I am astounded Kevin Moser in Tracy bought another bigger, more expensive house. Hey, Kev, nice move. Now….look at the statistics. The appraisors do. You have THREE times the asset value and it is all declining. So instead of losing $50,000/year in equity, you are losing $150,000/year. That does not even count the money you will throw away every month for 5 years supporting these bad investments. You could not have made a bigger mistake, unless you bought 18 months ago…..
Paladin,
It might be a little worse then that. What he thinks he’ll get in rental monies is rapidly diminishing too in the Valley. I’m seeing rents coming down in the new developments. Would-be landlords are falling all over themselves to get a renter with a 600’s credit score and a stable job to commit to a 2 yr lease.
You may not be able to “buy” a 600K house in the northern end of the valley but you sure can rent one cheaply. I’m seeing 5/3 new homes advertised as possible Sec 8 rentals. Incredible
I’ve seen an ad for section 8 at a nearby subdivision. It’s brand new.
I had to share this one
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249873929.html
$750k home for $1,750 a month, section 8 ok.
California has collectively lost it’s mind.
Gwynster “I had to share this one”
Wow! No offence but that was like “beefing a long, rotten one, in an elevator”
Oh crap, now I’m on a roll
**opens a bottle of cabernet and settles in for the night**
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249552307.html
I just hope I drink enough of this so I don’t remember in the morning >: )
Gwynster, that house for $1750 at 5312 Hirsch Cir? The owner paid $468,000 for it on Jan. 7, 2005. He has another thing coming if he thinks it is worth $750,000. He could probably sell it for $150/sf today, which would be $397,000. Exept he would have one problem….the loan amount is $468,000 plus any neg am over the last two years. And guess what his mailing address is for the lender and the tax man….yes, you guessed it….the very property in Elk Grove. However, check out the phone number on Craig’s List…..(510) area code. Mortgage fraud??? “Yes Mr. Lender (Countrywide) I will take the 80/20 loan and I promise to live in this house….” Hmm.
All that said, you point is well taken. He paid $175/sf two years ago and will rent you the property for $,66/sf/mon. If he has Mello Roos, his fixed expenses are $1,000/month, so he has to pay his mortgage with a net of $750/mon. His payment is probably $3,100. So he eats over $2,000/month, while the asset loses another $4,000/mon in value. Why would any fool buy a property today. This owner is going to bail in a couple of years and Countrywide will have to sell it for 120 time the monthly rent, or about $210,000.
Yep, there is a 6/3.5 3900 sqft home in a gated community for $2200 per month here. Mr. Gwynster won’t let me rent it. I could throw some amazing parties in that place in 6 mos. Hell, I could rent a ton of furniture, decorate the place up and advertise in Sacramento Brides as the next trendy location for small posh wedding. Think of the tax deductions too. Brilliant!
Did anyone catch that the first CL listing only wanted to lease for 6mo to 1 yr? Can you do that in California? I thought that once a proprty went section 8, it was always section 8.
Anyways, that second CL ad was the wrong one. To make up for it, here are 6 more.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249148749.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/246517262.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/247746301.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249451041.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249090695.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249338525.html
Section 8 housing with a pool and granite counters. I’ve now seen it all.
$750,000 house in Elk Grove. No one would pay that and spend $6,000/mon to own that house….
Gwynster,
That “$750,000″ house in E.G. was purchased for $468,000 in Jan., 2005. He could probably sell it for $150/sq.ft. today, if he got lucky with some GF and DR Horton is not selling them for $125/sq.ft. next door. That puts the value at $397,500.
Ohhhh Noooo. The poor landlord owes $468,000 to Countrywide (plus 2 years of neg am on an 80/20 no down loan), so he would have to bring $75,000 to the closing table!
I also notice the address he gave the lender…… the subject property, but the phone number in Craig’s List is a bay area number. Mortgage fraud?? As in “yes mr. lender, I promise this is an owner occupied loan, so I can get 100% financing.” Sheesh. This cracker head is going to eat $2500 a month in negative cash flow until he gets tired of bailing money from this pit. I bet the house will go back to the lender within 2 years. Countrywide will have to sell it for 120 times the monthly rent, or $210,000….which is what it is really worth today……it is just going to take us 2 more years to get there.
Why would anyone by real estate today?
Just to show you the current value of the “$750,000″ home in Elk Grove was truly a joke, I went to Craig’s List and found a similar 2700 SF home for $403,000. Easy, took 4 key strokes, and there are three at this price…. http://sacramento.craigslist.org/rfs/249401931.html
Prices keep dropping, and dropping and dropping….remember when they had the 12-hour sale….. about 12 months ago?
What I think is funny is that cats and dogs are now OK!!!! Now THAT’s desperation.
Personally, I laughed harder that they were going to run a credit check on a Section 8.
Are they expecting a 700+ FICO score??
Gwynster: it just amazes me that more people cannot see this. The Pollyannas now run around talking about rising rents, and a shortage of rentals, etc. I try to challenge people like this using facts, such as cheap houses and condos for rent. They cannot comprehend it. Like the only rental could be in an apartment complex or something. This past summer I overheard someone at a golf tournament talking about how glad he was to FINALLY find a renter for his “investment” condo. He even said that he knocked some $ off the rent as an incentive and because he was the first applicant that was respectable. The best part: the guy is nearing retirement, so he cashed out by selling his own house and is just going to cruise for a while as a renter. Smart guy (the renter, that is).
Yep, there is a 6/3.5 3900 sqft in a gated community for rent for $2200.
Mr. Gwynster won’t let me rent it for a 6 months for a lark. I could rent all the furniture, throw a few smashing parties then leave. Maybe I should rent it for next spring and advertise in Sacramento Bride as the hip new place to have fashionable small weddings. And get to take it all off my taxes as a business start up. I could make a mint. Brilliant!
Did anyone catch the first one saying he’d only except 6 mo to 1 yr leases? Can you do that here in Ca? I thought that once it was Section 8, it was always Section 8.
Anyways the last one didn’t count (wrong url) so here are some others.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249148749.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/246517262.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/247746301.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249451041.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249090695.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249338525.html
‘ The Pollyannas now run around talking about rising rents, and a shortage of rentals, etc.’
Switching rentals in Westlake Village now (Vta County) and finding LOTS of rentals on the market. Rents are negotiable, not only with the private owners who are eager to get some income from their empty houses, but even at apartment complexes. There is a very noticable outflow of people in the $60-120K income range in Vta County.
Yep, there is a 6/3.5 3900 sqft home in a gated community for $2200 per month here. Mr. Gwynster won’t let me rent it. I could throw some amazing parties in that place in 6 mos. Hell, I could rent a ton of furniture, decorate the place up and advertise in Sacramento Brides as the next trendy location for small posh wedding. Think of the tax deductions too. Brilliant!
Did anyone catch that the first CL listing only wanted to lease for 6mo to 1 yr? Can you do that in California? I thought that once a proprty went section 8, it was always section 8.
Anyways, that second CL ad was the wrong one. To make up for it, here are 6 more.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249148749.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/246517262.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/247746301.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249451041.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249090695.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249338525.html
Section 8 housing with a pool and granite counters. I’ve now seen it all.
(if this is a multiple, my apologies - Word Press seems to have a hate on for me tonight. Someone must have installed a breath analyzer function)
Yep, there is a 6/3.5 3900 sqft home in a gated community for $2200 per month here. Mr. Gwynster won’t let me rent it. I could throw some amazing parties in that place in 6 mos. Hell, I could rent a ton of furniture, decorate the place up and advertise in Sacramento Brides as the next trendy location for small posh wedding. Think of the tax deductions too. Brilliant!
Did anyone catch that the first CL listing only wanted to lease for 6mo to 1 yr? Can you do that in California? I thought that once a property went section 8, it was always section 8.
Anyways, that second CL ad was the wrong one. To make up for it, here are 6 more.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249148749.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/246517262.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/247746301.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249451041.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249090695.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249338525.html
Section 8 housing with a pool and granite counters. I’ve now seen it all.
I officially nominate Kevin Moser as the greatest fool in northern California.
Hey, RE just started tanking, I think I’ll double down!!
“Double down” is grimly appropriate in this context.
I would just like to note that we might have zero or negative population growth because in 5-8 years the boomers will start to die off rapidly.
Places like China will also begin to feel the impact of the one child policy. Things are going to get very very strange.
First, Kevin Moser in Tracy, ca, needs to get his bath water checked for LSD contamination. Obviously he must have taken a LSD laced bath a few hours before falling for the realtorwhore chant of, “Now is a good time to buy.”
Anyway, seeing as Oxnard, ca. is being mentioned, in my mail today was a very pretty invitation card. On the front is a conche sea shell with waves gently lapping over a background of golden sands. A “name” next to the picture simply says, Orbela. (What the hell Orbela means I have no idea.)
On the back of the card it says, “Invitation of the Season!” Be among the first to discover Orbela’s Beach close value!” It then states I’m invited to attend the grand opening and pre-sales of new town homes on December 23rd, 2006. The prices are from the $400,000’s for the 1,094 square ft floorplans to 1,870 square ft. They do not mention the prices of the bigger floor plans. (Mmmmm. Let me see….FROM the $400,000’s. That probably means the cheapest is $449,999. That must be the “Cannot swing a Cat,” 1,094 square feet floorplan. Also, 1,094 is a hell of a lot nearer 1,000 than 1,500!) Btw, the builder is drHorton who has another giant development (only half finished) in Camarillo which is about 20 miles from Oxnard and is right next to the 101 freeway.
I know this Oxnard area quite well because I had a boat in the Channel Islands Marina. It was incredibly rich and fertile agricultural land which has now joined thousands and thousands of acres of other rich and fertile agricultural land in California which has been turned into badly constructed, crappy little stucco boxes, crammed next to each other so you can hear your neighbor fart as he coughs up phlem, spits and flushes the toilet. Most of these new developments are close to badly congested freeways. The 101 being the most congested in the nation.
Oxnard itself is populated by mainly working class latino’s. Many illegal. The majority who probably earn less than $30,000 to $40,000 a year so they ain’t gonna be buying anytime soon.
Oxnard is a pretty ugly place and, to be honest, if I HAD to live there I wouldn’t pay more than $150,000 for one of these places DRHorton is trying to pass off as some kind of Mediterranean (re: Orbela) beach front property. I suppose the Italian sounding name helps the realtorwhore spin a bigger b.s picture. “Great in the summer when you can stroll along the beach as the sun sets.” The usual sales crap.
Anyway, I’m going to check the place out and, if I’m in the mood, I’ll give the realtor a hard time. Should be fun listening to the b.s they spin. I’m going to take my heart medicine with me because if I hear “Now is a great time to buy,” I’ll laugh so much I could have a heart attack.
Mike: Orbela? I’m with you, WTF does that mean? Whoever came up with the names for these bubble developments should be caned. Whenever I see older subdivisions from the 50s and 60s they have a name that at least relates to the surrounding area. I am sorry, but painting a stucco shit box in terra cotta color does not equate to being in Tuscany. Most likely you are in the freaking valley of CA! Drop the crap homebuilders. Turds cannot be polished!
“Oxnard itself is populated by mainly working class latino’s. Many illegal. The majority who probably earn less than $30,000 to $40,000 a year so they ain’t gonna be buying anytime soon.
Oxnard is a pretty ugly place and, to be honest, if I HAD to live there I wouldn’t pay more than $150,000 for one of these places DRHorton is trying to pass off as some kind of Mediterranean.”
I think the opinion above is right for most of whole Golden State. That is why North West real estate is still moving up.
Remember that Congress will decide about 12000000 illigal immigrants …
“I think the opinion above is right for most of whole Golden State. That is why North West real estate is still moving up.
Remember that Congress will decide about 12000000 illigal immigrants.”
The illegals are everywhere. While CA has the lions share, they are rapidly descending upon every area, the Northwest included. The number one industry in Mason County, WA you ask? Brush picking. This is where thousands of illegals comb the forests cutting down precious vegetation and gathering moss to sell back to the fat businessmen so they can sell it to the worldwide floral industry. Some of these illegals have even been caught working within the Olympic National Park, stealing the moss from 500+ year old trees. But these illegals are only making an honest living right? Excuse me while I go vomit.
Mike,
Let us know when you find out where it (Orbela) is. The website does not show a location. A couple of miles one way or the other in Oxnard is like night and day. I actually like some of the houses on the harbor and the beach, but it gets bad pretty quickly as you get away from the harbor.
You don’t go far enough in your description of Oxnard. It also has BAD air quality (yes, the port), tons of carcinogenic chemicals leftover from agriculture (the world’s dirtiest industry, particularly strawberries and their plastic coated methyl bromide realm), gangs, guns, bad schools, few job opportunities,and that awful smell. It’s like Pacoima-By-The-Sea. In fact, the central SFV probably has access to many more jobs, better schools, and housing is cheaper there now.
“More sellers are offering incentives to buyers including paying a portion of loan costs for a year or two and covering closing costs. ‘We’re doing closing costs on practically every single deal,’ said Sandy Geary, broker in Rohnert Park. ‘It depends on how desperate a seller is,’ she said. ‘I think people are kind of settling down and taking what the market will give them.’”
H’mmm…
Most sellers cover loan costs for a year or two, AND closing costs?
This is more evidence that the median price statistics the NAR, CAR and DataQuick often spout really are of little value.
And why not just lower the price?
OK, I know, I know,… They still have to lure in buyers who still can’t afford the house and have nothing to bring to the table. This is a BAD sign for the housing market.
Pretty soon the credit will tighten too much to loan to those folk. Are they asking to be instant slums? I think people will eventually be happy to know their neighbor is only growing pot…
LOL now I know where the Grove in Elk Grove came from.
“We’re poor; we’re undereducated; we’re stuck on jam-packed freeways; we can’t afford a house; and we breathe the worst air in the nation.”
I’m tired of all this cheerleading…. What about some bad stuff about So Cal lifestyle? This kinda report just makes people wanna move here and add to the problem.
“Citing the ongoing housing slowdown, KB Home has withdrawn from a joint venture to build a 54-story hotel and condominium tower that is a central component of the L.A. Live project in downtown Los Angeles”
There is much more that is left out than this report indicates. I suspect that KB got cold feet based on projections of a RE/economic slowdown, which would impact the profitablity of dwtn Condos amd hotel projects over next several yrs. That 54 story LA live tower has not even started a single story yet, though there are multitudinous other residential/office towers currently springing up in that area just north of Staples center/convention center. Maybe the developers are aware that Angelinos simply won’t flock in and snap up all those newly-built dwtn condos at current outrageous prices of $600-$800,000+ hoa’s-, especially considering the dreary concrete bunker aspect of LA Dwtn.
downtown LA is a pit. you deserve to lose your money if you’d consider living there.
The Market Lofts (on top of the new Ralph’s they’re finally building) are now purportedly going on sale in January, still at over $550/square foot plus outrageous HOA.
Yesterday my wife and I were driving out of downtown and saw a homeless guy sleeping on the front step with all his bags outside the “Sky” loft across the street from there, for $700k to $1.5M+. Can you imagine paying $1M for a loft (or $500k for that matter) and walking out to be panhandled on your doorstep as you step over a puddle of human waste (but can’t avoid the smell)? You’d think at $500+ per month HOA, even if they’ve only sold half of the units, they could at least afford a security guard to keep the homeless people from sleeping out front and relieving themselves in the garden, but I’ve seen it with my own eyes quite a few times now…
I rent down here ’cause it’s close to work, but you’d have to be insane to buy at the prices they’re still asking, esp. given all the new construction that will be released to the market soon in the middle of a housing downturn and with a huge inventory backlog already. Downtown L.A. has huge, huge problems with crime and homelessness which are not going away just because they’re building condos, many of which are sitting empty at the asking prices… I got on the prospects list for the Little Tokyo Lofts a year or two ago and now they call me once a month or so trying to get me to come over, and recently resorted to building a doggy playground to try to drum up interest from pet owners… Too bad I have to pick gum and glass out of my dog’s paws when I walk him down here…
Ruh Roh Shaggy!
http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/insider/archives/2006_12_15.html#004945
(California) November revenues down $657 million
The Department of Finance’s monthly revenue report today has an ominous number: general fund revenues are down $657 million in November from projections for the month. That’s a huge drop and, if it signals a trend, would be a disaster for the state and for Schwarzenegger’s efforts to balance the budget without raising taxes.
Finance, however, says they are thinking that most of the drop can be explained by one-time factors that don’t presage an economic shift that will result in lower revenues going forward.
The sales tax, for instance, was down $127 million for the month. But Anne Maitland, a revenue analyst for the department, says October sales tax payments came in higher than expected as taxes due on Nov. 1 came in early. The November number, then, represents the flipside. For the year, sales tax payments are very close to the forecast.
Corporate taxes were also down in November, $192 million below the projection. Much of that, Maitland said, was due to refunds being higher than expected, and some of those refunds were tied to the tax amnesty plans that brought in so much money over the past few years. Many firms paid up to beat those amnesty deadlines but still fought the judgments. Now some of them are prevailing and the money is going back out, but it is difficult for the analysts to predict months in advance when those refunds will be paid.
Another big hit came from the sale of unclaimed property bringing in less than expected in November.
On the other side of the ledger, withholding for the personal income tax was very healthy, at $138 million above the projection of $2.5 billion. And that’s one sign that the economy is still going strong.
Bottom line: an eye-opening number, but not reason to panic. Yet.
L.A. Live must be a dog. Why go ahead? Who REALLY wants to live downtown… next to ‘Box City’/homeless? It is mostly gross. I do not see people wanting to live there…. but as we all know from this blog postings, sheeple’s foolishness exceeds our expectations…
I think that the inspiration for those condos jutting up out of the cold hard pavement are those concrete pillboxes featured in ’saving private ryan’. Designed no doubt to intimidate and ward off the unwashed vermin infesting the streets of Dwtn LA.
Bakersfield is an absolute fecalhole….I wouldn’t live there if the PAID me to be there.
If anyone wants to piss away their precious minutes, weeks, years of life sitting in a Bakersfield home in the name equity and profit, they can knock themselves out. I’d rather not buy a home and rent rather than live there. God…just the thought makes me want to vomit.
Kevin had one concept right. He just got mixed up on what he should do. Will cost him dearly when he reaches out and finds the falling knives.
Bugger I can’t reply to my own thread -
I agree with CA Guy and Paladin. There isn’t much I can’t out about the market between the assessor’s records, zillow, and zip realty.
There is a 6/3.5 3900 sqft home in a gated community for $2200 per month here. Mr. Gwynster won’t let me rent it. I could throw some amazing parties in that place in 6 mos. Hell, I could rent a ton of furniture, decorate the place up and advertise in Sacramento Brides as the next trendy location for small posh wedding. Think of the tax deductions too. Brilliant!
Did anyone catch that the first CL listing only wanted to lease for 6mo to 1 yr? Can you do that in California? I thought that once a property went section 8, it was always section 8.
Anyways, that second CL ad was the wrong one. To make up for it, here are 6 more.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249148749.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/246517262.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/247746301.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249451041.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249090695.html
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/249338525.html
Section 8 housing with a pool and granite counters. Still blows my mind.
“Several real estate appraisers, however, said the rebound will take five to eight years, based on historic patterns. ‘I’m not sure that we’ve bottomed out yet,’ said Lindsay Nielson, a Ventura-based appraiser for more than 40 years. ‘We’re certainly in the trough right now.’”
D’ya think these guys know better than Grinnin’ Greenie or Lyin’ Lereah? Because Al and Dave said the market would bottom out next year before resuming its upward ascent…
I am looking for a place to rent. I meet an owner of a rental at the place. He says they just kicked some people out who had been living there. The people were in escrow to buy the house but they could not get the financing. Now the owner wants to rent the place but they don’t want to lease. Hello! I’m not going to spend $1,000 to move all of my stuff into your place so you can kick me out next Spring when you think the market is going to get better.
I go to another place. It seems this mortgage broker is living in the “mother-in-law” unit in back and would like to rent out the main house. I tell him I don’t like the idea of someone living in my back yard and the price is so large I can’t believe it.
I go to another place that was just purchased last year. The owner is living in a room above the garage and wants to rent out the main house for $1,600. He remembers me because I visited him two months ago when we was asking $1,800 for the house. He still hasn’t rented it. I feel sorry for the guy and try to explain to him that it is the market the determines the price and not his needs. I tell him I will give him $1,200 per month for the place. He says he would rather just sell it come summer. I wish him luck.
I go to another home with a for-sale sign. Seems the owner bought it last year and has been trying to sell it. I tell her it is the best place I have seen but not better than the place I am currently living so I think I will just stay put and try again in February. She says why February? What is happening then? I tell her that in February there will be so many houses for rent the landlords will be desperate. She asks me what I think is a fair price for her unit. I tell her $1,000 per month but she wants $1,300. I ask her is she has ever rented the place before. She says no.
I go to another house for rent. It also has a for sale sign. Seems the owner bought the house last year but lost his job a few months ago. He was a real-estate agent. Now he has moved back to SF and will work as a photog there. I told him I would pay him $1,350 for the place but he said after talking to his accountant he could not go below $1,550. I told him that I had a big wad of Christmas-present-money and if he wanted any of it he had better change his mind quick.
Then I met this guy named Rashede. Seems that he has bought a bunch of new houses and will rent them for $1,350. I told him that it seems he is renting them out for a lot less than he will have to pay. He says it is normal to lose money for a few years. Rents always go up he said. He is buying some more homes. I talk to one of Rashede’s other tenants. They say he is an idiot and don’t rent from him. The tenant said Rashede has no experience managing properties.
I can’t believe it! All of these landlords seem to be clueless. What is going on?
Bah. Amateurs.
And some people never get it. Residential rentals is a service business that requires an understanding of the market. And the SFH market is a difficult one to make money in, so many professionals avoid it.
“I can’t believe it! All of these landlords seem to be clueless. What is going on?”
What’s going on is–first of all, these are not Landlords by any strecth. These are simple, soon to be screwed greed-driven dumbasses that thought they were all going to make a killing in RE. Manage RE?? These beauties probably can’t even balance they’re checking accounts.
We’ve heard the term FB’s (f**cked borrowers)…now we’re going to need a new one, FR’s (f**cked renters)–fo all the poor folks that rent from these clueless bankrupt dolts as they ride down the financial poop chute. Good luck getting any repairs done if anything needs fixing. Cleaning deposit? What cleaning deposit?
Rant off.
DOC
Jeezus! Hope you got a good laugh grammar and spell-checking my above post. Still waking up here in Calif…DOH!
DOC
“Rents always go up he said. He is buying some more homes.”
It also goes down… have they forgot a few years ago rents dropped by 30-35%. Typically only goes up by rate of inflation.
Both residential and comercial rental took a massive beating back in 2001-02. The recent uptick is really small. This guy is really clueless as you said. Back in the mid 70’s we had major wage inflation which triggered in part stagflation. Overall wage inflation is heavily offset today by globalization of jobs.