Ghost Towns “Symptomatic Of The Market”: Florida
The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “Fortune Magazine has named Bradenton/Sarasota in its top 10 housing markets ready for a fall. Ranking the area number seven, the magazine projects local home prices will tumble 4.8 percent in 2007. Home prices started to see a correction as early as the last quarter of 2005 and buyers are being more realistic when pricing their properties, said broker Milt Flinn. Fortune’s prediction is akin to ‘looking out the rear window.’”
“The latest numbers released by the Florida Association of Realtors found the median home price for October at $277,900, down 18 percent from the $340,700 median in 2005.”
“‘I think we all need to take a look at our individual greed temperature,’ said Rod Rawlings, VP of corporate development for Re/Max Gulfstream. ‘Sellers now who realize there is no way they can lose money on the sale of their house are more likely to price according to what the market allows.’”
“The best bet for selling a property in an area that has multiple homes on the market is to price a home in the bottom of that area’s price range. ‘It takes two to make a transaction and the buyers have been sitting back waiting for the market bottom and I think they’re coming back now,’ Rawlings said.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Ed Wittenberg moved into a ghost town. At the fringe of the 60,000-retiree community, the well-landscaped homes in his Villages neighborhood stood empty. The front windows of home after home revealed empty living rooms. No one else lived there.”
“‘I was alone, but not lonely,’ Wittenberg said. ‘I did wonder if I was getting any neighbors. I wondered if it was selling down here.’”
“The Villages home-building machine put the brakes on during 2006. This year home building in the retirement mecca is on pace to drop by about 40 percent from 2005. ‘It’s slowed dramatically,’ Sumter County Planning and Development Director Robbie Rodgers said.”
“This year, the master-planned community went from a high of 529 building permits pulled in January to only 76 in November. Each month saw fewer permits pulled. The surplus of empty homes from last year leaves vacant neighborhoods and isolates new retirees such as Wittenberg.”
“Frustrated would-be Villagers lament that their retirement dreams are shackled to a soft housing market. ‘People can’t sell their houses up North or anywhere,’ Lorri Lewis, a South Florida real-estate agent. ‘I already lost $60,000 on my house in Vero Beach,’ Lewis said.”
“Experts said the ghost neighborhoods of The Villages are symptomatic of the new-home market across the country. As the market cools, home builders face excess inventory while competing with a flood of existing houses for sale.”
“Lewis rented in The Villages for 21/2 months. She is spending Christmas in The Villages with friends. She already dropped the asking price on her Vero Beach home and plans to drop it again until it sells.”
“‘I’ve met too many people who have bought here and can’t sell their homes,’ Lewis said. ‘It’s just a matter of patience.’”
“Marj Fada could not wait any longer. At least 165 other people from her hometown of Mansfield, Ohio, already have moved here. ‘I had been coming down here for five years,’ Fada said. ‘The homes down here have doubled in price.’”
“When she retired, she immediately bought a Villages home, sight unseen, and put her Ohio property on the market. That was September. She has taken her home off the market for December and January to save on real-estate-agent costs while she covers two mortgage payments.”
“She thinks The Villages’ momentum will return and allow her to resell her home when the market rebounds. ‘Even if it doesn’t work out for me here now, I don’t think it was a bad decision,’ Fada said. ‘I can always come back.’”
‘Tourism industry leaders are mounting a campaign to convince state officials to cough up more money for marketing Florida as a vacation destination, after the first decline in visitor numbers in five years.’
‘The Florida Insurance Guaranty Association, which pays claims for defunct insurers, will tack on another 2 percent surcharge on homeowners policies throughout the state to raise additional funds to cover claims from the Poe Companies insolvency.’
The Avalon Homes mess gets worse as officials can’t even seem to agree on what is legal:
‘Avalon Homes’ use of an outside licensed contractor to qualify the company’s homes for government permits is prohibited by Florida law, two experts and a spokeswoman for the state’s Department of Professional Regulation told the Herald-Tribune.’
‘Some government officials and members of Southwest Florida’s construction industry maintain that Pufta’s use of Leake was allowed. Bud Korte, the city of North Port’s plans division manager, said that Leake was allowed to sign the permit applications even though it was clear that he was not an employee of Avalon Homes. ‘It’s legal,’ Korte said Monday.’
‘Calling Avalon Homes’ situation ‘unfortunate and unusual,’ Sutter said a home builder like Avalon, selling tens of millions of dollars worth of homes, should have had a licensed contractor as a ‘full-time employee.’ Sutter said that he thinks the current practice ‘needs to be looked at’ by the DPBR in the wake of recent area home builder failures.’
Not sure what good that will do when families can no longer HELOC their trip to Disney. It’s the sort of big-ticket nonessential that people tend to give up first when times are tight.
“It’s the sort of big-ticket nonessential that people tend to give up first when times are tight.”
You can bet that is scaring the crap out of the hundreds of businesses that make money off the big attractions. I witnessed it here in the early 1970s, during the gas crisis. Businesses died left and right. A buddy of mine picked up two timeshares, in the Christmas-New Year’s week in Buena Vista (primo), for $500 each and has been staying at the world’s best places each year since. Mixed emotions about it — I feel sorry for all the mom ‘n pops that will suffer, but central Florida was a super-pleasant place to live before the mouse came.
Go on Marriott’s website, look at prices for hotels in Palm Beach in February. No wonder tourism is down - almost $300 per night to stay in the Boca Courtyard 4 miles from the beach. About $400 for the Marriott on the beach. These are prices for a standard room, no suite or anything…
The funny thing is, they are getting these prices. People are still spending like there is no tomorrow.
I was in Copelands sporting goods store this weekend. They are having an out-of-business sale. There was this huge home gym set that was 10% but still over $2000. This Mom and her two teenagers were telling the salesman “we’ll take it” He asked them how they were going to haul it off and she said “I don’t know, don’t you deliver”? I observed this family for a minute or two and realized this gym would eventualy wind up in one of the spare bedrooms with laundry hanging on it. On my way out there they were at the register handing the plastic to the checker. It’s sick, really sick.
10% off meant to say…
Re: discretionary spending. It cost me $45 for two small bags of staples at Walmart yesterday….but there’s no inflation mind you! Anecdotally, I see the morons with carts full of made in China crap, yet everyone I know is lamenting high bills, less cash available,and things slowing at work. The proverbial SHTF has only started in my opinion. Not until all the Wallstreet bonuses are paid will the real deal be revealed….
close bold
East of West: Not until all the Wallstreet bonuses are paid will the real deal be revealed….
afraid you are right!
That is funny! We go to a 5 star all inclusive resort south of Cancun for 160.00 per person per night. Beats the heck out of Florida!
Is this the Vilagges resorts with the Jingle TV commercials “America’s hometown…in …the…Villlll-ah..ges!”?
too funny
What isn’t mentioned anywhere that I’ve seen is the major issue of STDs, primarily herpes, that was spreading there last year and got a lot of press. Most people of the age to retire in the Villages right now would be horrified at the possibility — to them, STDs were only syphilis and gonorrhea, both curable. That recent scandal, all by itself, might have scared off a lot of potential buyers.
Sorry but most people have their own national real estate bubble to contend with. Do ghosts pay rents or mortgages ? What a fine mess the FED and all these greedy and irresponsable bankers and lenders have made.
” When big trouble arrived in 1929-1932, real estate speculation in Florida’s land boom had been part of it as was the final Wall Street event which opened the crashing flood gates. ”
Where are we in 2006?
WE ARE HERE.
Boooh! Ooooohh! Booooooh! Ooooooohh!
The same ghosts of 1929 are haunting the Florida Real Estate Racket. Internet or not. Globalization or not. Nothing really changes very much. The same stupidities done over and over by this time by the baby boomers, these pot heads.
“Frustrated would-be Villagers lament that their retirement dreams are shackled to a soft housing market. ‘People can’t sell their houses up North or anywhere.”
I guess this is another new lesson for me in this bubble, vs. the last one. Equity gains allowed “locusts” from bubble markets to inflate other markets, and now equity losses in bubble markets are spreading as well.
Did this happen in the 1987-94 bust? Were non-bubble markets affected?
from1988 to 1995 most of FL kept going up 2-4% a year- this time it’s different
WT Economist,
It IS different this time! In typical years 3-5% of homes purchased are second/vacation homes. It’s been that way for years (up until recently that is). In 2004 36% of sales were 2nds. and in 2005 40% were 2nds! To call this an “abberation” is an understatement. HELOC/MEW bubble bucks greased the “rolling bubble” all the way to Bend, OR and even Billings, MT! Build it, and they will come.
wow- that’s big number
add % exotic loans and stir
Yes, and having a second home used to mean having a place at the beach, or on a lake. Now it means having an empty tract house crammed in with a thousand exact duplicates somewhere in the broiling suburbs of Phoenix, or on a former potato farm in the chilly plains of Idaho. Or next to a pig farm outside of Bakersfield.
John in GA,
LOL! Yepper! I have a client that now resides in SoCal. He’s lived there for years but we both grew up in Chicago. Great guy, real sensible. We both lament the way the whole idea of a “summer place” got so perverted. Many of us took turns (or “doubled up”) at family cabins in WI or MN and got water right out of the lake! Most places were not even insulated and pots and pans hung from nails tacked into bare wall studs.
It was heaven.
Same here. My aunt had a cottage on a lake in the Poconos exactly as you describe. We had to walk a little ways to a community water pump to get potable water, the water in the cottage was used for washing only. Heaven, indeed!
In typical years 3-5% of homes purchased are second/vacation homes. It’s been that way for years (up until recently that is). In 2004 36% of sales were 2nds. and in 2005 40% were 2nds!
Interesting. Where do you find this data?
Matt,
Actually I’ve seen it right on NAR’s web site as well as articles in USA Today and Money mag. It’s pretty common knowledge. What WILL be interesting to see is what % of sales THIS year were 2nd/vacation homes! I’m w/John in GA, even though the vacation homes of my youth were “up at d’ lake yah” my vision is out of “spaghetti western” where the tequilla flows like a raging river! Alone but not lonely.
Oh, also intersting to note that “in the time of madness” NAR considered these numbers not only acceptable (but actually desirable).
I can’t wait to see these 3,500 sq. ft. debacles out in Bend, OR die on the vine. That reminds me it’s time to check C/L for my little morning laugh.
WT Economist,
Have you seen the Wheaton and Nechayev paper on What’s Different This Time? Here is the abstract:
This paper examines the historic cyclic movement in house prices since 1975. Past swings in home prices have been largely a result of economic recessions. The exception is the 2001 recession caused by a plunging stock market wherein the Fed loosened credit, rather than fighting inflation with tight credit. Home prices have soared since then, while income, job, and rent growth were slow to recover. We show that incorporating all the actual movements in economic variables (including mortgage rates), forecasts made back in 1998 completely fail to capture the recent rise in prices.
The current housing market however has been subjected to two “shocks” not seen previously. The emergence of an active sub-prime lending market has raised the homeownership rate nationally to historic highs. In a state cross-section we show that recent increases in homeownership correlate strongly with increases in Price/rent ratios.
Secondly, households have been purchasing homes as a “2nd” residence or for “investment” at record rates. In 2005 total housing production exceeded household formation by 60%! Again using a cross section, we show that markets where this has been on the rise are also experiencing greater price inflation. These new factors are “outside” of model forecasts and hence a cause for concern. Going forward, rising interest rates could both reduce homeownership and cause a more sudden exodus from the 2nd home investment market. These changes would cause prices to correct more severely than in the past.
http://econ-www.mit.edu/centers/wel/housingcycles.pdf
P.S. BeaConst, we would love to hear your comments on Bill Wheaton’s dire prognostications…
thanks for the MIT paper…really pessimistic.
The age-expected home ownership graph vs current rate is really interesting.
That paper does a great job at illustrating the impact of sub-prime loans and second-home investment buying. I don’t foresee the complete meltdown economic scenario they envision in their conclusions, as I think it more likely that the FED will reduce short term rates once the inflationary pressures brought about by “bubble spending” have dissipated. However, future FED rate cuts will not fend off the coming tsunami of foreclosures and price drops in the housing market, but it should soften the landing for the rest of the economy.
‘… as I think it more likely that the FED will reduce short term rates once the inflationary pressures brought about by “bubble spending” have dissipated.’
So in other words, you think the FED won’t mind encouraging the construction of a few more McMansion ghost tract home developments by respiking the housing punchbowl yet another time?
What kind of ‘real estate agent costs’ are there just for having your home on the market? When I listed my apartment, the broker paid for all the marketing and even the staging of the place.
about $150 for mls listing- lots of free FSBO sites
There aren’t any. She just doesn’t want her DOM numbers to be big when she re-lists for the ’spring bounce’. Its a common trick.
I spotted a property where the agent was actually running TWO identical listings for the same property. One would run for a few weeks, then bam, it would be put on hold and the other listing simultaneously activated. A realtor can see this in their view of the MLS, but John Q Public can’t. So the house looks like it has been on the market for half the time it really has been.
I’m in the Sarasota-Bradenton area and I just have to laugh at these predictions. I’m sure the local Realtors are actually happy to see someone predict only a 4.8% decline for 2007. We’re down over 20% since the beginning of the year and there is a lot of downside left here IMO. The supply of houses here right now is over 2 years, condos are over 3 years I believe. New neighborhoods are ghost-towns because of the fools buying up all the pre-con last year and now can’t unload. The inventory is still growing and there are no signs of sales picking up. I was in a neighborhood (3 years old) last weekend and I saw 5 houses for sale in a row with 2 across the street. Wish I had the camera, I may have to go back this wekeend…..unless the boomers showed up this week and bought up all this overpriced crap….
“unless the boomers showed up this week” LOL!
Yeah, like I say, there wasn’t a town south of the Mason-Dixon that didn’t see themselves as the ultimate “retirement mecca”! And of course they ALL built like they would get the lion’s share of retirees. Besides anybody that buys form a realtwhore with a name like “Rod Rawlings” deserves what the get. I swear, do realtors all go through the same “in RE you can be who you WANT to be” indoctrination? If I’m gonna give myself a new name I was thinking something manly….. like, “Sledge Riprock”! (What do you guys think?)
Dash Riprock
“the magazine projects local home prices will tumble 4.8 percent ”
Are they sure? Couldn’t they tumble 4.8255%?
What precision. What a joke.
I think they misplaced the decimal point…should be 48.0%
I’m sure that they think if they used less precise numbers, say 5% or 10%, people would think they were just making it up!
You hit the nail on the head. Statistics “experts” know full well that decimal points give them more perceived credibility.
“When she retired, she immediately bought a Villages home, sight unseen, and put her Ohio property on the market. That was September. She has taken her home off the market for December and January to save on real-estate-agent costs while she covers two mortgage payments.”
I not sure what cost she is talking about, but, this is another quote that supports the discussion that many people have taken their homes off the market until Feb. or March. I am sure there are a lot of other people waiting to put their homes on the market for the first time in Feb. or March as well. Inventory is going to go through the ROOF. By April Fools day a lot of people are going to be wishing the numbers of homes for sale are only a joke.
ragerunner,
Uh….. it might be easier for the realtors just to list what ISN’T for sale!
You joke, but there were plenty of stories (even on TV) about neighboroods descended upon by “investors” in hot areas that had people going door to door trying to buy homes that weren’t for sale. In the hottest areas, you pretty much had to put up a NOT for sale sign to keep the “investors” from knocking on your door. And I bet that didn’t stop them.
I couldn’t tell you how many cold calls I have had in the past 5 years for our family’s pasturelands. We have never listed a single piece, but there were times when I was getting daily calls with offers, including some property that is in the federally protected Green Swamp. One house per 20 acres ma, and a buttload of regulations to do that, but every developer still wanted it, ’cause it was land if FLA.
“As the market cools, home builders face excess inventory while competing with a flood of existing houses for sale.”
“Excess”, “flood” - terms that don’t bode well for the selling side of the equation.
ROTFL
This spring is going to be ugly. The question is when do we set an all time record for US home inventory for sale. My vote? Valentines day 2007. Yours?
That’s a good question, Neil. Maybe this weekend’s discussion topic.
I can say that this morning driving out of the TH community where I’m staying, two homes had new FOR SALE signs in the front yard…this just in the four cul-de-sacs that I pass on my way out to the main road. And I know that at least two THs in that same cluster have been pulled off for Spring Re-entry. From the looks of my little slice of the world, Spring 2007 will be Fugly indeed.
Methinks when the record is broken, the counting methods will secretly change before its made public.
“The question is when do we set an all time record for US home inventory for sale.”
Equivalent question: How long can you hide an elephant under the rug in your living room?
February 14 Saint-Valentine’s day. Al Capone Bernanke with Bugsy Bush and Big Dick are doing just a fine job at eliminating the middle class. A lot of blood in the streets. Make it bleed. What is surprising is that the prices are not yet cratering yet. Anyways in 2007, 2,7 trillion dollar of ARM’S mortgages will have to renegociated with much much higher interest rates. That should do the trick.
‘“Excess”, “flood” - terms that don’t bode well for the selling side of the equation.’
How does the term “tsunami tide” bode for the selling side?
Hmmm…………………….
Bad?
I’m thinking you’re referring to the tsunami of foreclosures…or is it ARM resets?
Both.
Mansfield, Ohio? This is a small city in the heart of the North-Central Ohio farm country. Not within commutable distance of any city. About 2 hours from Columbus, 2 hours from Cleveland, 3 hours from Toledo.
The only thing I know that Mansfield has is a regional US Post sorting center and an abandoned CART race track (Mid Ohio race track).
How anyone could expect a house to sell in Mansfield is a mystery to me.
Cincydad, ..and 165 people from her town has moved down there ??? That has to be the whole town, no? Regardless, as said above, come spring, there is going to be alot of eager selllers with 2 house payments ,and no chance in hell of selling….
That 165 people has me scratching my chin. Very weird…
Mansfield Ohio, we can tell you where your missing Village idiot(s) went. Do you want any of them back?
Oh joy, this resuts in two communities having their wealth destroyed. Thank you housing bubble. Grrrr….
Neil
The market makers went to that small town , got all those retired people pumped on real estate investment .
What I don’t get is why the women wants to sell her dream retirement house .
Everybody buys, than they need to sell within a year or so. These were just speculation purchases . I have never seen anything like it . Ghost towns everywhere .
How about when they were bringing the people in by buses to buy a couple of years ago .Now they can’t fill the buses anymore I guess .
Here’s Mansfields stats. While I’m sure they went through a bubble Mean Housing price was 55K in 2000′. Looks like nice middle America though….
http://www.city-data.com/housing/houses-Mansfield-Ohio.html
She didn’t retire! She just freed up her future to pursue her lifelong desire to serve the public, as in would you like a red or blue slurpee sir?
It is going to be pathetic seeing all these boomers working in Taco Bell dishing out Ecoli next to 15yr olds.
My 62 year old father-in-law thought he could ’save’ his retirement by flipping houses with the little bit of equity he had and by using no-doc loans to get more leverage. This year, he lost everything. Three foreclosures on two homes in Michigan (his primary house and a cottage on a lake) and a condo in Florida. He is the poster child for the group who thought they could salvage their lack of retirement savings through real estate speculation. I can read from all of the news here that he won’t be alone.
I can just imagine the taco assembly line full of 60+ ‘retirees’ talking about all the money they lost on flipping houses…
“…Fortune’s prediction is akin to ‘looking out the rear window.’”
Talk about poor prognostication. Fortune is late and optomistic — 4.8 pct decline in 2007?!? This example demonstrates the danger in relying solely on mainstream financial media for timely and accurate decision making information.
Consider the source. Steve Forbes is just another pied piper of economic pornography.
That’s an insult to real pornography.
“This example demonstrates the danger in relying solely on mainstream financial media for timely and accurate decision making information.”
Absolutely true. Anyone relying on the mainstream media for useful info is toast–while Ben and the contributors to this blog have been on the money consistently.
Let me tell you about my experience with “Fortune”. When I had a hedge fund we had a PR guy to get us exposure and business. He said for a couple of grand he could get us wrtten up favorably in “Fortune”. We were rather negative on the market at the time, so our PR guy said we should brighten up our viewpoints so “Fortune” would let us in.
I refused to do either. I was not about to pay some guy to write good things about us. It may have been the PR guy that was unethical or someone at “Fortune”. I will never know.
“…‘Even if it doesn’t work out for me here now, I don’t think it was a bad decision,’ Fada said.”
DENIAL. DENIAL. DENIAL.
Probably easier to say than “if it doesn’t work out I will need to flip burgers in my retirement and eat dog food because I was a greedy idiot.”
the magazine projects local home prices will tumble 4.8 percent in 2007.
Projections about home prices falling is based on average home prices, which means a if you take two homes where the same house sold last year for $500k then sold this year for $400k, housing prices actually fell 20%. These % are simply average home prices but have nothing to do with what declines are occuring for similar sized/featured homes. So, the decline could (and most likely is) much greater. Is this a correct assumption?
Yes, if you compare properties on an apples-to-apples basis the declines can be much larger. Lets say the median is $500K, and you sell a small home at the beginning of the decline for $500K. Later, you buy a larger home for $500K. The median will not be affected by those transactions (although the median will likely be changing by because of the other lower transactions in the market). Move-up buyers in declining markets cause the median not to reflect the actual declines in individual properties.
Just curious, how much is a realtor listing fee. If that’s the reason most people take their homes off the market in the winter it must be kind of steep. I was always under the impression the realtor only made money on the sale.
We only make money at the closing table. I can spend a lot of money in newspapers, home guides magazines, food at open houses, and if the house does not sell it is out of my pocket. That is why if you are a “good” realtor you walk away from overpriced homes that the owner thinks it is worth. My partner and I are honest and truthfull to our buyers and sellers, we do not do both sides of a deal and it has paid off for us. My income is steady for the last three years and it is important to see yourself as part of the community and that markets are up and down traditionally. Do we remember that their were times that the price of you home barely moved upward at all after a few years. All folks want is it not to go down. Lets go back to the old mortgages that you paid down each year, forced savings. I also encourage my folks to stay on the market during the winter, less competition.
That being the case, why would a seler bother taking their home off the market in the winter. Or is it the realtors that decide not to list in winter?
That being the case, why would a seller bother taking their home off the market in the winter. Or is it the realtors that decide not to list in winter?
I think a service that a”good” realtor provides is a snapshot of current the market. This market needs us not go back futher then 3 months in our area for comps. Our market is backto 2004 prices. Still up, but, if you bought at the high which for us was 2005. your down 10%. I predict for the upstate New York area Saratoga Springs-Lake George that we will be steady and flat for the next two to three years. We came to the party late and that was not a bad thing….
Glenda,
I don’t know your market at all but most of America needs to go back at least another 3 YEARS not 3 months. Typically housing appreciates at inflation plus a point or two. Since 1997 many areas went up 10-15-30% a year! Want a real read on where pricing needs to be? Go back to 97, add in CPI and a couple of points. Even today (DEC 06) I wouldn’t pay over 2001 prices. Sorry.
Good point! I can see going back three years, except in our market it was so depressed and undervalued for so many years. Then 9/11 happened and we are a 21/2 drive north of NYC and folks poured into our area and drove our prices up.
Glenda,
You’re in Albany area?
Glens Falls!
Glenda,
Below I asked you if you were in Albany. Disregard. I have relatives in that area for alot of years, relocated from Maine, and infact I lived in Wash. county for 7 years. Your statement “we will be steady and flat for the next two to three years” is word for word, exactly what I hear from my relatives who are not associated in any way with RE. Yet, it is the same statement you hear from all RE people about “their” area, yet they’ll tell you the market is headed south everywhere else. Also, the 9/11 argument you used is again, nearly word for word, the same “stuff” I hear from friends and relatives there. To attribute the run up in RE to 9/11 in Warren, Wash, Sara counties is preposterous in my view. The area has always been subject to equity bandits but there is no way that 9/11 was the predominate factor in prices doubling there. Of course it helped, but I hear the same nattering from locals that they’re at a permanently high plateau because of 9/11. The economy has been bad there for many years, yet it continues to get worse. IP in Corinth gone, IP in Ti laying off, Finch is nothing more than a shell of a company, GE Fort Edward laying off, Telescope gone…. I could go on with that list as I do business with all of them. Irrespective of all this, the speculative talk I hear from the locals is very unnerving. Downright strange in fact. Yet there is nothing to back up the talk except the 9/11 lunacy.
Glenda — there is a glitch: when prices in areas outside your own decline markedly, then your own market becomes less competitive by comparison. I think there is a good chance that the freefall in prices in more active areas will hammer the ones that did not bubble, unless some sort of new employment comes to town. The rhetorical question is, “If prices in other nice places are dropping a lot, what is it that would make me want to move to your town?” Sorry to be so negative, but I truly believe this is how it will pan out.
That’s what I think too. Then subtract a few points for what would have been a recession in 2001. That would take my home purchased in 1996 for $93k to about $130k tops. The place next door (no garage, no Florida room, no carport, whacky layout) sold for $210k 6 months ago. Had my house been on the market I could have gotten about $225k.
It is unwise in the extreme to allow even a “good” (cough) realtor provide “a snapshot of the current market.” It goes without saying that someone who has a vested interest in selling you a house [or anything else], has plenty of reasons to be less than honest when describing the current market, or more to the point, where the market is headed.
Would everyone feel better if we as realtors did not get paid a commission. Maybe banks could put us on salary, I don’t know maybe we could work at a store. Remember, we provide a service that some folks like. I used to work in Child Abuse and Domestic Violence. I know what jaded looks like. I thought every man was abusive and parents were terrible. Guess What! It wasn’t true.
What would make everyone feel better, is confidence that in exchange for their commission, which adds thousands of dollars to my costs, the realtor actually had my best interests at heart, and had unquestioned professional competence, integrity, and ethics. I have actually dealt with such a realtor in the past (2002) and had no problem forking over a commission to him. Unfortunately, he was the exception and not the rule.
I agree. Confidence is inportant, also competance. If your clients feel you are working in their best interest. The most important thing is that you are honest with them even if it hurts. I continue to read and learn. Thanks to all of you who take the time to give us the information that is out there.
You are a brave good witch to come here! As a group we are not fond of 98% of realtos and brokers because we were each taught expensive lessons about their lack of ethics. Let’s start with this 6% commission (or even half of that) that I paid for a total of three weeks work - no open house - just a simple MLS listing. Since that lesson, I’ve sold houses without a realtor. Sorry Glenda but this is NOT the blog for you to visit to feel good about yourself and the chances of making all these bloggers change their minds and suddenly love realtors is slim to none. So you came here because ….
I have broad shoulders, so I can take the heat. I came here to learn and I understand that the market went nuts, guess what my buyers have been shut out as well and remember I am a social worker by training so i want to see an affordable market as well. I read ever day and just felt brave today.
Glenda. 6% is truly outrageous, don’t you think? You may be nice, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt, but the realotr I dealt with was also a woman and as soon as she knew she had a deal that was the end of her doing any legwork. I had to do all the legwork myself to close and everything else. She left a bunch of loose-ends I had to take care of for her. Then she copped an attitude like I was bothering her, and after the sale I got the friendly realtor ‘thank you’ card in the mail and signed it ‘Mom’, as if she was cleaning up my shity daipers for me, when in reality it was the other way around. I also bot the feeling she was lying to me about other offers and whatnot.
Glenda — thanks for your polite exchanges.
Glenda ,of course people need the services of realtors . It’s just if I was a lender I wouldn’t lend a nickle on the current prices in a declining market, or I would require a higher down payment to lower the risk .The appraisals are all messed up because of the false run up ,so why should people even buy ?
I agree! When I price a house and it sells in a day. Did I price it right? Some owner think I must of priced it too low. Houses sell that are priced right. I work as a buyers agent when I have a buyer and I pullup comps to show them when a house is over priced. I tell them to wait. lets watch it drop. That is why I do not do both side of a deal. I work for my sellers and my buyers not both if it is the same house. If I have the listing I will tell them to get another agent to represent them in the deal. That way I can always keep my focus on my seller. Appraisers most be going crazy! I also agree it important for folks to have some of their own money invested, not just the banks. That means they need to save. What an idea! Tax assessments are going to be crazy as well.
Glenda , the more I think about this the more I think yes the realtors should give free service for one year instead of jail time for punishment for pumping the public up with ,”real estate never goes down “, buy now or be priced out forever “, we are running out of land “,buy more house on a subprime loan and refinance later “,etc etc.
Glenda , you might be a nice honest realtor,I don’t know you . The problem is that the RE industry created a big mess that needs correction . It’s a weird market ,no question. I’m sure you are doing all you can to be honest with people ,but let’s face it ,anybody buying now is catching a falling knife . I’m sure you have told you buyers about the upcoming forceclosure projections that will insure that they will get a better deal down the road .
I hear you! I understand why you feel this way.
I don’t care if you understand how I feel ,I want to know if you agree with it .How are the realtors in you office dealing with the market change where buyers have backed off and are waiting for prices to go down .
HW,
I’m very familiar with that area. As far as I can tell, the REIC is pumping the 9/11 thing for all its worth. See my post above. When I found out Glenda was from Glens Falls, I nearly fell out of my chair when I heard her say “9/11 drove our prices up”. I swear it’s like an episode of twilight zone. In fact, I posted on another thread where my brother (from Glens Falls) stated that “9/11 is why prices doubled”. I asked him why the rest of the country doubled”…… no reply…. It seems the REIC there have the people brainwashed.
ok!
What I mean is when 9/11 happened, we did have a large number of folks coming up from downstate, they remembered thier summers as a child in Lake George. Lots of summer camps here. Now remember that to keep out of a recession Greenspan lowered the interest rate to an artificial low. Do we believe if 9/11 had not happened we would of seen 4% interest rates? Folks from downstate were selling their raised ranches for $500,000 and coming up here where it was depressed and buying colonials for $300,000. They thought they were stealing them. We had a lot of folks who retired as police and fireman at age 40 full benefits. So lets blame on the low interest rates that allowed folks to by Mc Mansion because money was cheap, and inventory was low. I do not know what else to blame on, but I will continue to read all you and maybe I will be enlighten.
I work out of a small(14) agents office with the average length of time as a realtor 15 years. Everyone was baffled, Now, we just tell our buyers to wait and we tell our sellers the party is over. Yes, there is always someone to tell a seller that their property is worth more. My partner and I tell them we would rather turn them down now then let them down later. We walk away from overpriced listings….Call us crazy!
Glenda, don’t think I suggested in any way that you were unenlightened. My point is that the locals are parroting what you’ve said here, word for word (9/11). I’d be willing to wager that you’ve made this statement before. But I know this for a fact…. Sara, Wash, Warren county RE market is seized up. Why? Price. I recall what happened there in the early 90’s. By 2001, prices were half what they were in 1989. And that runup wasn’t near the size and scope of this one. The equity bandits from NYC already bought, the rest of them can’t sell or don’t want to move to a colder climate. My speculation is that most of those equity bandits/2nd house schemers from NYC will sell at a loss, as the painful grind down the other side of the curve continues as they realize floating 2 albatrosses is crushing. Also, taxes have nearly doubled in that area.
You make a good point. The market here may be a repeat of 1989. Maybe the run up was due to the 4% interest rates. 1989 I think they were around 9%. There was a lot of pent up buying. Everyone who could buy jumped in. The folks that made out were the first wave of sellers, not much inventory so multiple offers. The buyers from downstate have stop coming for the reason you stated. They can’t sell their overpriced house as well. My neiche is under $150,000. So I have been steady for the last three years. Everyone now talks about the nanotech industry that is going to be housed near Luther Forest. We also have a build-up of medical devices. Boston Scientific and C.W. Bard. They have been hiring. Our unemployment rate is 4%. Our taxes are so much lower than downstate and our hospital has just doubled in size and they are hiring 200 doctors. The rich still are buying in Bolton Landing. So, again I just want to understand as well.
Oh yea. The AMD plant. Thats the other one the locals are boosting. I think that one is laughable but less so. Nevertheless, it won’t stop prices from sliding to 1999 levels there. Not in my humble opinion anyways. I find it EXTREMELY hard to believe the 4% unemployment rate. That might be a lofty govt. number but we all know they can’t be believed. I left there in 2000, (sold and a nice profit and still own 100 acres in Wash.Co.) as there was no work to be had. Well…. yeah… if you call 30k/yr good. Most of my clients have shut down there. Still have a few left but very few. Where did all the IP guys go? All 500 competing for $10/hr jobs? They won’t be shelling out 200k for a house that was worth 75k in 1999. You stated your taxes are lower based on a comparison to “downstate” yet you acknowledge they are no longer coming so the comparison is moot. Especially in light of the fact that taxes were horrendous even in 1999. They’re up 60% since then. My sense of you is that you really don’t know the market that well but you’ll use anectdotal evidence to keep a positive spin on it (AMD, 9/11) and this is exactly why I hear the same from relatives and business associates, word for word.
Prices can’t double all over the country without more moeny to support those prices, so logically it wasn’t an airplane crashing into a building that caused prices to double. Yet, there is some truth to it that if an airplane crashed into a building and the Federal Reserve decided to print money because of it, then yes you could say it was due to 911.
Exactly my point Andy. But you’d be amazed and the seriousness of the folks who say this. They actually believe it. It would be no surprise if some in the area I speak wish for another round of attacks just to keep things boosted. Thats how speculative some of them are.
Glenda ,I wish you would please tell me what are you telling your buyers about this market . I understand that you are telling the sellers to get real, but what about the buyers .How do you get a buyer to buy in a falling market these days .
That domestic violence stuff is a feminist myth. Good you found out the truth on that. Spread the word. More women are violent with their children and spouses than the other way around.
As far getting paid as a realtor. How about a fee. I work in software for a salary. Whether I write and outrageous new app or do maintenance to an app I get paid a couple thousand every two weeks. If I’ve been a good boy I get a little larger paycheck the next year.
:):):):):):):):)
“How about a fee.”
Same as an auctioneer, I think. People wouldn’t pay it, since there’s no guarantee of a sale.
How about a fee once the house is sold?
They haven’t provide a service til the house is sold. Doesn’t matter whether a sales clerk is ringin up $5 or $500 worth of groceries, they still get paid the same wage.
I used to work in Child Abuse and Domestic Violence. I know what jaded looks like. I thought every man was abusive and parents were terrible. Guess What! It wasn’t true.
You had a warped view of the domestic violence/abuse when you worked as a social worker.
Methinks you have an equally warped view of the RE market in the upstate NY boonies now that you’re in the middle of it.
You know all the billionaires here don’t need realtors and we think everyone else is an idiot for paying someone 6% to sell a house. Why would I want to payout $30k on a $500k house when I only spent $25 on my wedding? That’s why we don’t like realtors here, they are cooks trying to take away the hard earned money I made managing people’s assets through index funds.
Totally unnecessary. Sales are public records and an informed buyer can check those out himself. All anyone needs is a good real estate attorney. Real estate agents are as useful as travel agents…
I know many here at quite attuned to the complexities of the financial markets..need a quick lesson on sub-prime - my understanding that Joe Shmoe needs to buy a house - goes to the bank - (doesn’t read the paper work but signs the bottom line - gets the fat GG$$ and off he goes and buys his house) - 2 years later - the teaser rate jumps and so does the thing that falls in Joe’s pants….he decides not to pay and walks….(question - finally) - who is on the hook ???…considering Joe is broke…understanding - or misunderstanding is that banks have padded themselves even though they have basically written the loan…
Depends on if 2 years was in the seasoning period that allows the current mortgage holder to put it back to the originator.
Suzanne, That’s the beauty of the whole fiasco. They made their commission, and have their Home in Argentina paid off. There has been a huge flood of sub-prime lender going BK….and suspect that will increasing.Point is, where would that loan go to? ,and even sue who?
Sue God ? Sue the Devil ? That’s why the mafia is soo a efficient business model. Strangely enough they rarely lose money. FIASCO is an italian word. That’s what happen when you are not in the mafia or working at Goldman Sachs. It’s the same outfit. Well one is italian mafia and the other is jewish. Hey it’s intended as a joke on mobsters in real estate and finance and at the FED.
“…The front windows of home after home revealed empty living rooms. No one else lived there.”
Ghost towns built relying on ghost demand soon to be funded with ghost payments. The disconnect between real housing demand and stock prices is alarming. Stock prices are currently valued on a quick return to ghost revenue — spooky valuations indeed.
Are you insinuating that we are experiencing a ghost bull market on Wall St? I guess whatever it takes to make a $100m bonus…
Sure, that includes “buying” these companies, stripping a bunch of cash out, replacing it with debt, yada yada
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=724
I just wait for the Congressional hearings in a few years.
‘Sure, that includes “buying” these companies, stripping a bunch of cash out, replacing it with debt, yada yada’
That sounds exactly like the home equity wealth-ATM finance model that households have worked off for the past several years. If it worked so well for individual households, then surely it will work just as well for Wall Street, right?
yeah, and if the “owners” aren’t making mortgage payments, it’s unlikely that they’re making HOA payments either. Come foreclosure time, which is senior? A lien by the HOA or the bank?
I believe that in Florida, a condo’s HOA lien is senior. Not sure about SFRs, but I suspect an aggressive HOA could cloud up the title in a hurry.
Here’s a late but timely example, from today’s Orlando Sentinel:
http://tinyurl.com/ymx8×5
Ya’ll will like this. Matthews’ blog is a must read IMO
http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/
“Sellers now who realize there is no way they can lose money on the sale of their house are more likely to price their house to what the market allows” (Rod Rawlings)
Gee Rod, and WHO exactly would that be? Pffft, this guy is delusional. How is it that in all of these 2-3 year old developments there can be ANYBODY in the now enviable position Mr. Rawlings describes? Or is this more “it’s a good time to buy OR sell a house” bs? What a putz.
People who bought several years ago and never HEOLC’d. They can still make a bundle at a market clearing price. Althoug they may have to listen to their (former) neighbors whining about them setting new comps so low.
And, speaking of blogs, it’s official. The MSM is not happy with us:
http://www.azstarnet.com/opinion/161195
Define irony: The neo-con shill George Will lamenting the loss of his masters’ stranglehold over the dissemination of news and information in this country. Granted, most bloggers are not geniuses, but those with talent who provide information and insights that people want and need in these times - and are successful in building a sense of virtual community - fill a vital need. The MSM strategy of ignoring the likes of Ben has not succeeded, nor will deploying effette and worthless shills like George Will to trash blogs that run contrary to what the MSM truth-makers would have the sheeple believe.
Sammy –
Your post reminds me of one of the books on my future read list, “The Wisdom of Crowds” by James Surowiecki, which I believe goes far to explain the comparitive advantage of blogs (and free markets!)…
—————————————————————————
“No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.”
-H. L. Mencken
H. L. Mencken was wrong.
In this endlessly fascinating book, New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/
GetStucco,
With all due respect for James Surowiecki, I will never believe that large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, because the former are collective stupidity and bovine complacency personified. What I think Surowiecki might be missing, or deliberately misstating, is the long and sordid history of the “elite few” deceiving and manipulating the Great Unwashed, by saying in public things they knew in private were untrue - but they stood to profit from hoodwinking the public.
I think you need to read the book to understand his definition of “smarter.” But at a gut level, I am very persuaded by Mencken’s world view…
http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/H._L._Mencken
Menchen rules! He’d be quite at home on this blog.
I don’t know whether crowds are smarter than geniuses, but they are sometimes able to predict their own actions better.
I haven’t read either book yet, but “The wisdom of crowds” seems to be a late rebuttal of “The madness of crowds …”, a bestseller from the middle of the 19. century. The “madness” described past manias like the tulip and the Mississippi bubble and was favorite reading for many, among them stock market legend Jesse Livermore. As far as I know Mencken, he would have liked it, too, and would have seen his contempt for the masses confirmed.
Whether there is but one or 50,000 of them sweating and drooling together while they ’solve’ the world’s problems - a moron is a moron.
Ben’s housing blog, and a handful of others (patrick.net, piggington, SoCalMgtGuy.) have provided outstanding and accurate analysis of the housing crash…There is not a single source in the mainstream media that rivals the information available on this blog…add in Wall Street economists, biz writers and local real estate reporters and …and Ben’s blog is still the clear winner.
George F. Will is a moron who is jealous that bloggers have stolen the MSM’s monopoly choke hold on information.
I almost forgot to mention, Will is also a curmudgeon.
Curmudgeon is quite correct. I will never forgive Mr. Will for giving a very bad start to the commencement when I graduated from grad school a few year ago (WIll was the chief guest, invited by his equally curmudgeonly buddy Joh Silber). He ranted on about how the staggeringly difficult struggle of a black baseball player (before Jackie Robinson), to succeed in playing for the professional teams was clear proof that there was no discrimination against blacks in America. What kind of a twisted mind does he have to even think of something like this, much less lecture thousands of graduates about it. I lost quite a bit of enamel from my teeth just bearing through the mental torture during his ’speech’.
Narcissism? No projection there George - none at all.
Oh George — why did you have to prove what most of us already suspected? You are out of touch man. Timely targeted information consumption is not narcissism. It’s an efficient way to stay well informed and ahead of the sheeple. Narcissism is not recognizing some of us can read, write, debate, think critically, and reach informed conclusions on our own.
The MSM is so clogged with overly commercial crap, short on data and analysis, plauged with conflicts of interest with advertizers.
Out here in La La land we can’t find a decent movie review. You have to look through blogs to find out what is crap and what isn’t.
I’m an engineer and scientist; if I am going to make a 30 year commitment to buying a home and commit significant capital and resources I research the heck out of it. The downside potential that I saw was huge. Prices shoot up? This will happen for ever says the MSM?
Sorry I remember the dot com boom and the telecom boom. Not to mention the enron scandal. The MSM noticed all that after it happened.
No George. We are done with the spin doctors. Here we look at data and draw our own conclusions.
All those second and third home purchases. Pure speculation. I wonder how many people signed their kids SSN to multiple mortgages.
Out here in La La land we can’t find a decent movie review. You have to look through blogs to find out what is crap and what isn’t.
James,
In the late 80s a Brit journalist, Toby Young, spent a disastrous year working at Vanity Fair magazine. He wrote a bitter, hilarious book about the experience (link below). It’s an eye-opener for anyone who seeks to understand how the New York-based literary scene works. Among other things, the symbiotic ties between media conglomerates means giving (deservedly) bad reviews of stars or movies can be a professional kiss of death in the industry. Hence, all those glowing newspaper reviews for movies that suck.
http://www.amazon.com/How-Lose-Friends-Alienate-People/dp/030681188X
Georgie Will did a good job not coming off as too much like he’s shitting his pants over possibly losing his job as the kingdom’s official published smarty-pants. Eff him. He’s a pompus shit-head.
Guess I’m in the minority on this one, but I read Will’s comments as applying to the personal blogs that likely dwarf in number the informative give-and-take ones like Ben’s. A very blunt comparison would be Ben’s blog, in which he posts topics of intense interest to the large number of us who post here, and Casey’s blog, the narcissistic look-at-me type. May be wrong, but I believe George meant to shoot at the latter, only.
I agree with Chip completely. George writes:
“According to the Pew Internet & American Life Project, 76 percent of bloggers say one reason they blog is to document their personal experiences and share them with others. And 37 percent — soon, 37 million — say the primary topic of their blog is “my life and experiences.” There is nothing wrong with that, but nothing demanding or especially admirable, either.”
As I read that I thought about the difference between Ben, who provides massive amounts of information from a variety of sources, and Casey, who details HIS “struggles” and HIS needs, and HIS wants, and HIS problems, etc., - the ultimate in self-promotion and self-centeredness.
I personally became very worried about America when people started driving around with bumper stickers that said “It’s all about ME.” And most blogs are an exploration into the blogger’s favorite obsession - themselves. Ben, Patrick, Rich el al do far more. But they are a minority. I dislike the radical right too, especially as they have deserted fiscal conservatism, but it isn’t always wise to ignore the message because you don’t like the messanger. I do not think he meant this kind of blog. (And apologies if this posts more than once!)
BTW – any truth/news to the rumor that Casey was arrested?
Agree with you both. George was referring to the “all about me” blogs, of which there are many.
Conversely, Ben has a tendency to remain in the background on his own blog. From what I see, he tends to prefer offering up **someone else’s** information & opinions, then lets the posters have at it. What makes Ben’s blog so strong, IMHO, is the collection of news, opinions, stastics, anecdote, etc. from such a broad perspective, geographically and personally.
Way to go, Ben!!!
Yea the momentum will return … yea right.
Lets see, boomers want to retire and they all want the same damn 1 square mile of property. They want to get top dollar for their ice field in the freaking tundra (OK Ohio just south of the tundra border) … and 165 of her neighbors did the same thing. Yea should work out plenty good.
Boomers are the ones that pretty much get shafted here.
Remember our old friend from econ 101 … supply and demand … they all demand the same thing - beach front and warm location, and they are all supplying the same thing old ass house in the arctic. lets see, this cant be a problem … oh no … not a problem at all.
Needless to say, when they all punced on the same piece of land the owners of said piece of land sold it to the highest bidder, and the house on it was built by the highest bidder … sending shivers down the spines of them all, who just repeated it till it cost a ton and it was over supplied. Wonderful. the smart people will not touch this mess. But potentially, the old houses can be bought for a decent price (I am talking 95-96 prices with dedictions for repair costs and like deductions for lead and asbestos or what not - very careful estimates) and someone could potentially live in it.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
(Boomers are the ones that pretty much get shafted here.)
Specifically, those of us at the back end, who have been on the back end all our lives.
The 60s generation bid up the prices before we bought, and will drive them down before we sell.
The demographic trend, massive as it is, pales in comparison with the finance-driven bubble/bust, however.
Speaking as another member of the Arse-End of the boomer era, I know what you mean. And don’t get me started on the job market that we Arse-ers have had to deal with as compared to our Sixties Generation older brothers and sisters.
Count me in as another Arse-ender. Love the term. And as an “Arse-ender”, don’t get me started about the so-called “Greatest Generation”. What a freaking PR snow job!
Hear hear. The “Greatest Generation” failed in their most important task: they spawned The Most Worthless Generation, the Baby Boomers, especially those that came of age during the 60s. A more self-absorbed, hedonistic, screwed-up generation has never fouled the planet or bequeathed such an unholy mess to their progeny. And yes, there are exceptions, but The Greatest Generation and their hell-spawn presided over Vietnam, uncontrolled immigration, the Great Society (with its pathological victimization and sense of entitlement), Affirmative Action, Jimmy Carter, and all manner of other societal ills. It’s time for a more penetrating assessment of the so-called “Greatest Generation.”
You mean “peace ,love and rock and roll” is hedonistic .LOL.
Good one, Housing Wizard. Some of the popular music acts today make Robert Plant look like Lawrence Welk. LOL! Now I sound like a member of The Greatest Generation. LMAO.
Hey, I like CCR & a lot of 60s acts as much as the next guy, and they’re a lot better than the insipid, whiney crap that put out as “music” today. My point is, look at all the broken homes and broken lives because people’s need for instant gratification was more important to them than anything else.
Actually ,I agree with you Sammy . The Greatest Generation wanted to spoil their children as a reaction to the Depression and World War 2. In fact , every generation lives their lives in knee-jerk reaction to what they got dished out .Reactionary behavior is not good parenting .
OTOH, when the supply of 18 year olds was dropping every year, getting into Universities swollen in size by Vietnam era draft deferments was easier than it is today.
“..Ed Wittenberg moved into a ghost town.”
The first photo on this HBB photo gallery is of “Haunted” Hillwood Loop in Lincoln, CA (Sacramento area). There are 14 homes shown in the “ghost town” photo, taken in August. Today, six are still owned by the builder, even after $200,000 price reductions to the mid $500,000 range. One house sold to an FB for $685,000 (her “sole and separate property”). Three have sold to “vulture buyers” for $560,000 or less, but much lower net prices with about $30-50,000 in incentives (all closing costs, 6 months free interest, back yards, free upgrades, etc). One house sold for $770,000 with 100% financing from New Century Mortgage (and probably $220,000 cash out to the buyer!) Two homes are in foreclosure with loan balances of $565,000 and $610,000 respectively (note the forclosed loan balances are less than what New Century just loaned!! Who is their appraiser??)
So in the last 5 months, there have been a few transactions and a total of 3 houses are now occupied. The rest are vacant, owned by the FB’s who paid $630,000 average in April 2006 and are to catatonic to do anything.
The market will dicatate auctions for the 2007 Spring Bounce! That should help prices drop another 20% here!
Paladin — is the New Century property one of the ones you are delving into, or plan to?
Yes. They are aware of it and have “begun an internal investigation and are working with the FBI” according to their media contact person. They got hit with some substantial losses a few months ago with this fraud stuff and are getting much more careful. However, you would think pulling a few comps at $500,000 and seeing 3 homes in forescloure at sub $600,000 balances would help them decide NOT to lend $770,000 on a new purchase. Aparently not….
I like the artificial accuracy in the article.
“Housing prices will fall only 4.891059% next year”…
Last year they couldn’t even get the direction right (”it will keep going up“), now they can predict with astonishing accuracy exactly how little it will go down.
Matt,
O.K now THAT was funny! We get the same BS here out west. Yeah, nevermind I couldn’t get the direction right but believe me when I say…….
…the buyers have been sitting back waiting for the market bottom and I think they’re coming back now.
Not the well-informed ones.
If you’ve been to Bradenton, FL, you know that the only redeeming qualities are the boarding gates at the Sarasota/Bradenton airport, and the northbound onramp for I-75.
In two years, Bradenton real estate will have the resale value of used food.
Bradenton is Sarasota’s blue-collar twin. More trailer park communities and heavy industry. Lakewood Ranch didn’t want to be considered “Bradenton” so they lobbied for their own post office and ZIP code for “Lakewood Ranch.”
But once you get a few blocks away from the coast, Sarasota and Bradenton both are just a boring, flat, ugly mix of residential communities and dowdy strip malls. The highest point of land in both Sarasota and Manatee counties is the covered-over landfill (Mount Trashmore) out at the east end of Bee Ridge road!
Bill, I know you are jaundiced about Florida and rightly so, however, that’s an awfully broad brush with which to paint Sarasota and Manatee counties. Myakka River State Park is delightful. There used to be a great swimming hole on the Manatee River inland a bit that was a great relief from the summer heat. Unfortunately, I think the development did away with that, although I haven’t been there recently to see.
Bold tag off, please…
“Ed Wittenberg moved into a ghost town. At the fringe of the 60,000-retiree community, the well-landscaped homes in his Villages neighborhood stood empty. The front windows of home after home revealed empty living rooms. No one else lived there.”
It would be so easy to turn those ghost towns into second home tourist meccas. Just lower the price to market value, and “they” will come!
GS — actually, that would be difficult to impossible for the Villages. They are too far from I-75/turnpike, down a crowded two-lane road. The nearest major artery is US441, which is nasty and also crowded. It is just too difficult to get from there to anywhere except Ocala, which itself is only a small step from being “boonies.”
bold off?
Just my attempt to close the bold tags…
It worked!
Now someone needs to activate the Demon Italic Tag. (Just kidding, folks!)
How’d you do it?
I think I did that. My bad.
I used less-than b greater-than. The the text I wanted to bold then followed that with another less-than b greater than. Where did I go wrong?
For the closing tag, you must put forward slash “/” after bracket and before b.
Example: (b)BOLD(/b)
Pretty strange that one person’s screw up can screw up the whole board though.
“Screw up”? Hey I fessed up my bad
Test this
Test
Not trying to insult you, Not mssing it, just saying I think it is a fault of the site that it allows a poster’s mistakes to alter the entire page. Not calling you a screwup.
its <b>bold stuff</b> not so bold. If you want to make a <b> so people can see it when they read the page you type & lt ; but without the spaces.
Another test
Just included a (/b) in my post.
Replace () with of course.
To be honest, I’m not now sure it was my post that fixed it. After I made mine, everything above mine was still bold, but mine wasn’t. Then I refreshed and Nikki’s above me was also not bold (so I thought maybe she fixed it). Now 5 min later the whole page is fixed, so either Ben fixed it, or my browser just doesn’t refresh right…
to close bold or italics in a previous post, include several (/b) or (/i) in row and that will definitely turn it off. A single ‘off tag’ is sometimes not enough.
OT but…
Top Biz News of ‘06: Housing’s Decline
Thursday December 21, 10:18 am ET
By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer
Housing Market Drop Tops the Year’s Business News, Builders Nix Projects and Renters Stay Put
The nation’s house party ended with a thud in 2006, leaving everyone from condo flippers to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke waiting to see what would happen next.
The sudden stall in home sales, home construction and home prices — and what that will mean for the economy — was voted the top business story of the year by U.S. newspaper and broadcast editors surveyed by The Associated Press.
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At the housing market’s peak, buyers rushed to open houses, blank checks in hand. Lenders gave big-money mortgages to people who could barely afford their monthly payments. That ended in 2006, when home builders scuttled projects, walked away from land they’d hoped to develop and would-be buyers canceled orders.
The story bumped high energy prices from the top of the list, where it had been for the past two years. Many of the year’s other top business stories were the latest installments of years’-long sagas, such as U.S. auto makers’ woes and the unraveling of Enron Corp.
Some of the new faces on the list, including Hewlett Packard Co.’s former chairwoman, Patricia Dunn, and separately, the growing group of executives who manipulated their stock options, might wish they were elsewhere — even at a lonely open house.
1. HOUSING SLIPS: Moody’s Economy.com, a private research firm, projected that the median sales price for an existing home will decline in 2007 by 3.6 percent — the first decline for an entire year in U.S. home prices since the Great Depression. One reason: Speculators fled the market. Not only did they stop buying, they put properties they owned up for sale.
“Investors were a bigger part of the market than many thought, including ourselves,” Ara K. Hovnanian, the president and chief executive officer of homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. said in June.
Thanks Matt.
‘People can’t sell their houses up North or anywhere,’ Lorri Lewis, a South Florida real-estate agent. ‘I already lost $60,000 on my house in Vero Beach,’ Lewis said.”
So much for the myth that real estate agents “know the market.” I can’t count the time I’ve seen similar quotes from FB reators who drank a little too deeply of the NAR kool-aid. With the possible exception of Baghdad Bob, the Iraqi Propaganda Minister, is there a more discredited group of people on the planet?
Remember! Even after I let a client know what his or her house might fetch in a current market, they come up with their own price. Not what it is worth but, what they need! Realtors need to walk away from overpriced listings. If I walk away, it tell them something.
My point - which still stands - is that clearly many of your realtor colleagues do NOT know the local markets, or they wouldn’t have bought into a declining market.
I think a majority of FBs in some cities would be realtors
That could be $60k from the now passed peak. She’s probably talking in the same vein of “not giving it away.”
My sister is a realtor and she has drunk deeply of the koolaid. She doesn’t read newspapers and barely watches the TV news, so her perception of the market is shaped by the CMHC (Canada’s version of Fannie/Freddie) and the other realtors she works with.
Verdict: RE is still going up, up up, though appreciation will moderate to high single digits only. Yes, that’s what they believe.
She of course takes their word over mine - they’re “professionals” and “RE experts”, while I’m just an academic with book learnin’. I don’t push it anymore - she’ll figure out who’s right in time.
yeah the true believers make the best sale(wo)men. I hope for your sake she hasn’t bought a bunch of property herself. Somehow I think that”I lost my shirt, you were right” is going to be a much less common quote among the relatives of posters to this board than “You’ve ruined me. You and all those bloggers!”
is there a more discredited group of people on the planet?
“Mission Accomplished”? Nuff said.
Just to give a personal sliver of whats seems to be going on in the realestate industry. I am here in Sarasota Florida but I purchased a 2br2bath 1300sq ft condo in st. louis mo for 145.000 and did the financing through my local person here in Florida at Bank of America. Well in chatting with him i asked him how was business. He took on a grim look and said not very good. I am hoping it picks up next year.
That was the first time i actually saw someone with some fear in his voice in regard to the oncoming train wreck
oh and by the way he is on commission
Maybe Glenda the Good Witch can answer my question. I posted this summer about housing in the Shauarita,AZ community about 15 miles south of Tucson. At the time i drove through three KB home developments. One had three phases of development. In phase one fully completed and occupied there were literally one for sale sale sign after the next and/or for rent. Phase two partially completed ditto for sale on completed homes,some occupied. I had some time hte other day and revisited this development. In phase one(about 100 homes), all ,but one of the For Sale signs were gone. The exception an out of state realty company. Phase two now fully completed had only one for sale sign that I saw(did not drive all roads as it is a maze) and that was a KB for sale sign. One small for rent sign the size of those little “protected by” the alarm companies supply the homeowner. I don’t thnk many of these home could have been sold as they are competing with the continued onslaught of new construction and builder incentives. I can see why some homes off market until spring for DOM, but why nearly all the signs gone. Bear in mind Tucson cannot support this amount of new construction prices with wages paid and available jobs at present imo.
Gotta be some kind of organized, peer-pressure driven mass denial phase leaving one to wonder what comes next. Also wondering: when a property enters foreclosure, does the listing terminate and the sign come down?
Not necessarily. Our agent thought we were buying from the owner when we submitted the offer on our current house. It was only when the offer was forwarded and the listing agent had to respond that we learned the house was in foreclosure. Fortunately the first offer was refused because we wanted several months until settlement. Our agent advised a new, VERY aggressive offer with no contingencies and a quick settlement, which was accepted. Banks don’t want to hold their foreclosed properties. They even threw in a buyer’s title insurance policy so they could totally wash their hands of it.
Did it look like folks were living in these homes? When a house goes into forclosure in our area it usually goes to one agency who has contracts with banks to sell them. You know when you pull it up that it is a forclosure. Sometimes folks will strip out the house, take everything I mean everything so the bank will sell it as is. We do not have large developments where I live. Builders who put up a few house as specs. The problem is when homeowners think their house is worth as much as new construction. I think you have to take into consideration: age of roof, furnace, hot water heater, windows, does the carpets need to be replaced. Or, if the older home has hardwood floors, beautiful woodwork, in an established neighborhood. Is that house worth more than a thown up piece of you know what. You need to look at each house as unique. Unless it is in a cookie cutter neighborhood where they all look a like.
Glenda,
They are cookie cutter,probably 18 months old and for the most part occupied, that is the mystery of at least for me.
BTW have a very fond spot in my heart for your area from the 60’s I was brand new state trooper out of the academy and my first assignment was the Saratoga barracks. I had to trade in my .357 for a M-16 shortly after that and when I returned from the service went to the southern Catskills and stayed, but still remember the unique beauty and history of your area.
“With the possible exception of Baghdad Bob, the Iraqi Propaganda Minister, is there a more discredited group of people on the planet?”
Would the group in Wash DC that’s ruining this country possibly rival them?
LOL. No doubt, and I thought about lumping the neo-cons with Baghdad Bob (with my apologies to the latter), but did not want to ignite yet another political discussion. So, please, let’s not go there!
“lumping the neo-cons”
Don’t worry, even Republicans have had it with the NeoCons.
Did anyone see John Stewart interview William Kristol on The Daily Show Monday night? I honestly felt a wave of compassion for Krystol, as his tail was visibly stuck tightly between his legs…
http://www.irmep.org/Policy_Briefs/3_27_2003_Clean_Break_or_Dirty_War.html
No sympathy from me. Kristol and his neo-con co-conspirators have a lot to answer for.
Sammy — link doesn’t work for me.
http://www.iasps.org/strat1.htm
Sorry about the IRMEP link not working - it was OK yesterday, but probably got taken down for speaking truth to power. As an alternative, the link above is to the infamous “Clean Break: A New Strategy for the Defense of the Realm” (Israel). It was originally written for hard-line elements within Israel’s Likud Party by US neo-cons (look at the authors - the neo-con rogue’s gallery in the Pentagon, State Department, and the media who used this document as the strategic and ideological basis for “regime change” in Iraq). These guys have hijacked the foreign policy of this country, and we are paying a terrible price for it.
Neo-cons will continue to be a minority in this country until the nuclear version of 9/11 takes place.
That’s right. Extreme hardships always tend to help demagogues take over the reigns of power (witness the rise of Hitler for a comparable example…).
Getstucco, like Winston Churchill and FDR? Well so much for your theory.
Coincidently - that nuke(s) will clear the books of the unpayable debt and wipe the debtors off the face of the earth (as WWII did with the Great Depression).
Thanks to the War on Terror and the US being set up as a nation of arrogant, fat ass, invading, murdering and torturing Nazis, the world won’t shed a tear.
Almost makes one question who the terrorists are working for.
Ah, yes. 9/11 was Bush’s fault. Then who do you blame for the failed attempt to down the towers under Slick Willie’s watch?
The FBI:
Thursday October 28, 1993 Page A1
“Tapes Depict Proposal to Thwart
Bomb Used in Trade Center Blast”
By Ralph Blumenthal
Law-enforcement officials were told that terrorists were building
a bomb that was eventually used to blow up the World Trade Center,
and they planned to thwart the plotters by secretly substituting
harmless powder for the explosives, an informer said after
the blast.
The informer was to have helped the plotters build the bomb
and supply the fake powder, but the plan was called off by
an F.B.I. supervisor who had other ideas about how the informer,
Emad Salem, should be used, the informer said.
The account, which is given in the transcript of hundreds of
hours of tape recordings that Mr. Salem secretly made of his
talks with law-enforcement agents, portrays the authorities as
being in a far better position than previously known to foil
the February 26th bombing of New York City’s tallest towers.
The explosion left six people dead, more than a thousand people
injured, and damages in excess of half-a-billion dollars.
Four men are now on trial in Manhattan Federal Court
[on charges of involvement] in that attack.
Mr. Salem, a 43-year-old former Egyptian Army officer, was used
by the Government [of the United States] to penetrate a circle
of Muslim extremists who are now charged in two bombing cases:
the World Trade Center attack, and a foiled plot to destroy
the United Nations, the Hudson River tunnels, and other
New York City landmarks. He is the crucial witness in the
second bombing case, but his work for the Government was
erratic, and for months before the World Trade Center blast,
he was feuding with th F.B.I.
Supervisor `Messed It Up’
After the bombing, he resumed his undercover work. In an
undated transcript of a conversation from that period,
Mr. Salem recounts a talk he had had earlier with an agent
about an unnamed F.B.I. supervisor who, he said,
“came and messed it up.”
“He requested to meet me in the hotel,”
Mr. Salem says of the supervisor.
“He requested to make me to testify, and if he didn’t
push for that, we’ll be going building the bomb with
a phony powder, and grabbing the people who was
involved in it. But since you, we didn’t do that.”
The transcript quotes Mr. Salem as saying that he wanted to
complain to F.B.I. Headquarters in Washington about the
Bureau’s failure to stop the bombing, but was dissuaded by
an agent identified as John Anticev.
Mr. Salem said Mr. Anticev had told him,
“He said, I don’t think that the New York people would
like the things out of the New York Office to go to
Washington, D.C.”
Another agent, identified as Nancy Floyd, does not dispute
Mr. Salem’s account, but rather, appears to agree with it,
saying of the `New York people’:
“Well, of course not, because they don’t want to
get their butts chewed.”
P.S.
If you look closely, you’ll find there is no difference between the two parties. Both work for the same masters - the money interests.
Having two parties serves many purposes - number one being it keeps the peasants at each other’s throats.
But you’re too sophisticated to fall for that.
I’m an ex-Republican. When the neo-cons hijacked the party, and the smirking chimp now in the White House was the “best” nominee they could come up with, I left in disgust. Still support individual TRUE conservatives like Ron Paul, but today’s GOP are as sleazy and hostile to the middle class as the Dems ever were.
I guess you have explained why Gekko loves today’s Repugnocrats so very well…
Bob Barr just bailed.
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Winston Churchill
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