“More Regions Reporting Declines Than Increases”: CAR
The California realtors have their November numbers out. “Home sales decreased 22.2 percent in November in California compared with the same period a year ago. The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during November 2006 was $555,290, a 1.4 percent increase over the revised $547,870 median for November 2005, C.A.R. reported. The November 2006 median price increased 0.7 percent compared with October’s revised $551,620 median price.”
“‘Although the statewide median price is on track to post just under a 7 percent increase for the year, there is a mixed picture across the state, with more regions reporting year-to-year declines than increases at this point,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘We’ve seen three or more months of year-to-year price declines in areas where there was a lot of homebuilding activity and in those areas that are popular for second-home purchases.’”
“C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in November 2006 was 7.4 months, compared with 3.6 months (revised) for the same period a year ago.”
“In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 47.2 percent, or 168 out of 356 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
The Monterey Herald. “It’s a whole new era in Monterey County real estate. Sandra McGavin has had her three-bedroom, 1,600-square-foot King City home on the market since summer. Her real estate agent initially recommended a listing price of $519,000, a price that made McGavin uncomfortable. ‘I thought that was too high,’ she said.”
“But over the course of the six-month listing, McGavin received but one offer from a would-be buyer, for $450,000, which she declined. Since then, she’s dropped the price multiple times, posted an online ad in hopes of finding a buyer, and found out just how frustrating a slow market can be.”
“Today, McGavin said she’s ready to accept $470,000. ‘Now, if I get a deal at $470,000, I’d be happy.’”
“Those unwilling to adjust their expectations risk rejection from agents. ‘They’re turning down listings where sellers are not motivated,’ said Monterey County Association of Realtors CEO Sandy Haney, ‘where a seller comes in and says, ‘I want this much for my house,’ and the market won’t support it.’”
“Even the language of real estate is changing. ‘Anxious to Sell’ and ‘Make an Offer’ have crept into the verbiage of real estate ads, as has ‘Motivated Seller.’ And ‘Reduced’ is now ubiquitous.”
“Realtor Stephanie Park has dropped the price four times in 10 months on a remodeled three-bedroom Salinas property on Palma Drive. Initially listed at $669,000, it’s now at $578,000. She has had one offer but no sale yet.”
“Buyers are definitely looking for bargains, she said. ‘They’re making offers below the asking price, and they’re being accepted.’”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “California’s population growth rate slipped for a sixth year in a row as tens of thousands of residents left for other states, according to new estimates the state released Wednesday.”
“‘In the past when (the economy was strong), California has attracted a lot more people from other states. Now we’re losing people to other states, and the Bay Area is part of that flow out,’ said Hans Johnson, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. ‘Why? The answer is housing prices have a lot to do with this.’”
The Daily Bulletin. “More than 27,000 more people moved out of Los Angeles County than moved in during 2005-06. ‘They’re definitely escaping Los Angeles for the Inland Empire,’ Fontana Mayor Mark Nuaimi said.”
The Recordnet. “San Joaquin County’s population is growing at a slower pace than it has for nearly a decade. Declining population growth is likely reflected in housing starts. Mike Niblock, Stockton’s community development director, said Wednesday that there has been a definite downturn in the number of building permits for new residential construction.”
“‘I’m sure there are a lot of different factors that impact those numbers, but usually there is a fairly strong tie between housing and population,’ he said.”
The Ventura County Star. “Ventura County’s population grew by just 0.9 percent last year, to 821,698, according to state estimates released Wednesday. It marked the second straight year that the county experienced a growth rate of less than 1 percent.”
“The state lost 67,000 residents to other states. It marked the third straight year in which the state experienced a net loss in domestic migration.”
“Foreclosures are climbing in California. More than 19,000 California properties entered some stage of foreclosure in November 2006, a 19 percent increase from October and more than three times as many as a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.”
“The year-to-year bump of 218 percent might be cause for alarm, but no one seems too worried, according to regional economist Jack Kyser. Sales are at 21st century lows in the state, but except for a few areas, folks seem willing just to bide their time and wait it out.”
“‘There is some concern about the condo sale market in downtown Los Angeles and some people are worried about San Diego,’ Kyser said. ‘There are worries as well about Riverside County, but that’s it.’”
“Riverside was partly responsible for the Riverside/San Bernardino metropolitan area ranking third worst among the nation’s 200 largest cities. There were 4,747 properties entering some stage of the process in the two-county area in November.”
“‘The industry may be in the intensive care unit through 2007,’ Kyser said, ‘but when you look at mortgage rates, there’s a real irony.’”
The Times Herald. “Solano County has among the highest projected foreclosure rates in the United States, according to a report released Tuesday.”
“Some local mortgage experts blame a combination of uninformed consumers, a declining real estate market, creative financing and unscrupulous mortgage lenders. ‘The consumer is an idiot,’ Mitchell Chernock of Benicia’s Sky Valley Financial said of those who accept unconventional mortgages without doing their homework first. ‘There is also out-and-out fraud against consumers by some mortgage and real estate professionals.’”
“Chernock said the recent drop in home prices is one reason the situation is particularly acute locally. ‘Who comes in at the tail end of the longest boom ever?’ Chernock asked. ‘Those who didn’t know how before.’”
“Some of the lenders who during the big local real estate boom were getting many low- and moderate-income people into their first homes, in some cases, wound up doing them no favor, Benicia mortgage broker Robbin Gifford added. ‘That’s true in the past year, especially,’ Gifford said.”
Don’t miss the tables at the bottom of the CAR link.
There is also this table.
Median Price Nov 06 Nov 05 % Change
Rancho Palos Verdes $948,000.00 $1,197,500.00 -20.8%
So much for the hereby-falsified theory that the high end will not be affected by the bubble implosion.
Here is another high-end data point that caught my eye…
Danville $977,000.00 $1,137,750.00 -14.1%
I doubt if that will change the smugness level in Danville. Everyone there thinks their house is worth more than 1Mil and will remain so forever.
Danville - For those of us who lived in the Bay Area for many years… its was Danville Farm Country…. Moo Moo!
I like to meet these smug people… I doubt they last 10 minutes … I will have them crying in no time… Moo Moo! Hello Farmer Jack, hows the farm life….
We used to call it Dopeville back in the ’70s, because there were so many rich kids driving around spending Daddy’s money on drugs.
Folks in the Blackhawk gated community in Danville think their $hit doesn’t stink. When the comps get killed there we’ll hear their crying all the way in SF.
I live in the Bay Area (San Francisco) and have no idea where Danville even is!
But $500k houses in the Central Valley tell me that the entire state is insane at the moment.
Remember, a 10% drop was a 20% increase.
4th grade arithmetic remember the lesson?
Ruth,
A 10% drop was not a 20% increase.
A 50% drop was a 100% increase.
Laguna Niguel $710,000.00 $469,500.00 51.2%
Buy I tell you, buy buy buy! Real estate only goes up. You will be priced out forever. They are not making any more land. 15% is in the bag. Hurry hurry hurry. LAY said so, David L said so, Gary Watts said so. The NAR said so. Alan Greenspan said we were at the bottom and here is the proof! They were all right. It’s your last chance. You jealous bitter renters are going to be paupers and serfs forever beholden to the landed gentry. Blog all you want you idiots, but the figures don’t lie.
Don’t ya just love statistics?
Whoa! Great posts in this region! But let’s see more price drops on ocean view homes! LOL!
Yeah. I love statistics.
Newer homes are bigger and bigger. Of course they cost more.
Existing homes have been remodeled. Of course they cost more.
But neither are selling for more in a down market.
Remember, a 10% gain is the same as a 5% loss.
I love statistics.
I took diffenentiated calculus and I can tell you didn’t.
ruth - nitpicker here, but it’s the second time you’ve posted basically the same thing.
a 10% gain isn’t the same as a 5% loss. for instance:
100 x 1.1 = 110
110 x 0.95 = 104.5
a 100% gain will be wiped out by a 50% loss, however.
sorry for the useless post couldn’t help myself.
Manhattan Beach $1,400,000.00 $1,803,000.00 -22.4%
Here’s another zinger wasn’t there someone on here the other night saying the coast wasn’t going to take a beating.
yeah, i think it was Mr. Dy-no-Mite, jjinla.
I work in the Manhattan Beach area - design and sell custom cabinets. Prices have fallen….but our business has continued to increase each year for the last 11 years that I have worked for my company. I have already equaled my salary for the last fiscal year and we still have 6 more months.
I’m in the same business. Shop is in Inglewood. We don’t have a showroom since we do custom work. We have seen a big slowdown this year, mostly in the second half, but next year is looking slow too. Most people are just as happy with IKEA as with custom cabinets, and we can’t come close to their price, so most of the jobs come from the more expensive properties. That end of the market should be more recession-proof, but I am not seeing the volume of sales that we had the last couple of years. Best of luck with your business, and Happy Holidays.
11 years means that you started in 1995, within 2 years of the bottom in L.A. It’s going to be 8 years of decreasing sales, minimum. Please save and defer taxes if possible. It is not too late.
My company has been in the South Bay for 27 years. Almost all of our work is referral….showroom near the Redondo Beach Pier.
Warren Buffett certainly didn’t think the coast was immune, as he unloaded his Laguna Beach house at the top of the market in 2005.
http://tinyurl.com/y37cev
Ah! sweet vindication.
Many, Many moons ago I crossed swords with PV Tom over this issue. There were also a couple of PV trolls at that time.
Glad to see PV taking their medicine.
Time to add PV Tom to the Gelded Bulls’ Hall of Infamy?
LV Landlord
BeaConst
etc.
I think we agreed to coexist and I think he has at least morphed over to a mild bear on his own neighborhood, but you have to ask him.
The sad thing is a 20% haircut isn’t enough to stop businesses from leaving.
If you’ve read my blog (of zero readers…), you would know there is a strong rumor going around my work that they’ll move people out of state. In the case of other companies in the south bay, its no longer rumor. They have commited to move hundreds to Colorado, Arizona (frying pan to the fire…), Texas, and DC. Yet the real moves haven’t started. Big companies have huge inertias. Once they commit to move… its too late to reverse direction.
Let’s put it this way. How can my company be commited to grow in southern California when I can see condos going up on land that used to include warehouse space they either owned or rented?
Gloat about PV… but it doesn’t have the share of flippers I’ve seen in Redondo. I’m waiting for the “spring bounce.” Yea… bounce in inventory.
The south bay was prosperous due to a longterm employment base that earned 1.5X to 2.5X median wage. Too many of those are overleveraged. Not to mention, take the pulse of the south bay 45+ population. What fraction *need* to sell their homes to secure retirement? If they can cash out and preserve their pension… the 45+ group is ready to decamp LA.
We’ll be in “fear” pretty soon.
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2006/10/market-cycles-time-to-buy-2008-or-2009.html#links
I still think we’re on this timescale I blogged on 10/2/2006.
Neil
GS, I wonder what ever happened to VAInvestor with all those houses in FL and VA?
Very right your are Neil.
Bay Area finally seeing some cracks, but Santa Clara County still up YoY. Santa Clara, San Mateo, SF, and Marin counties flat or up YoY…for now. I can’t wait to see December numbers, then Jan, Feb, March, etc.
Yoy sales and prices are spin.
YoY prices of existing homes should be up, after all, look at all the remodels so why should the existing homes sell for the prices before the remodel?
“In a 58-page study released yesterday, the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) predicts that some 2.2 million sub-prime borrowers will lose their homes to foreclosure in the coming years, forfeiting over $164 billion in household wealth in the process.
Entitled “Losing Ground: Foreclosures in the Subprime Market and Their Cost to Homeowners,” the extensive report analyzes the performance of more than six million subprime mortgages from 1998 through the first quarter of 2006. The study is the first comprehensive look at the subprime market.
The conclusions are startling, to say the least.”
Bande d’imbéciles et de crétins enfoirés de banquiers centraux américains. Well it’s the population of Montreal that will be losing their homes. Wow. Some people didn’t learn anything from the stock market bubble. They just transferred the stupidity in bricks.
Marc, I agree with you regarding the stupidity of the bankers, brokers and FBs. What I don’t see is how this will affect Montreal much (though I hope it will). I thought that the subprime mortgages had barely made a toehold here in Canada, and so it shouldn’t flush our prices as well. Of course, a general collapse in US realty markets may slowly move northwards. Or is there something I’m missing here?
“Median Price Nov 06 Nov 05 % Change
Rancho Palos Verdes $948,000.00 $1,197,500.00 -20.8%”
Awesome! I like RPV and PVE a lot. I haven’t seen prices fall more than 6% in a year in the south bay. Maybe Realtor.com and Zillow are hiding the price drops? I’ll take a 1500 square foot city view or ocean view home for $500,000 in a few years there!
Nice post Ben….
I have to disagree with the numbers on the city of Santa Clara in Santa Clara County however…..I gotta believe the condo conversions and condo’s in general have pulled down the numbers. The least expensive single family home for sale right now is; 840 sq.ft, 80 year old house on a 4000 sq.ft lot FOR: $580K
I can tell you first hand, without a doubt, the single family market in the city of Santa Clara is VERY strong….My last posting on this was in November…I said that I would not post again until Febuary but I may as well give the blog a update now.
In November single family inventory had eached its highest level for the year…Roughly 120 homes….This off of a low during the year of around 60…Their is now a grand total of 52 single family homes available…This is the lowest number I have ever seen and I have been doing this 30 years…I can’t remember that far back but maybe in the late 80’s we had the same low inventory…
Don’t shoot the messenger please….I am just telling it like it is as of today…
The way the Bay Are is getting flattened as far as jobs go I don’t think supply/demand will be any different in Santa Clara as opposed to Fremont. Santa Clara is going to crash and burn along with rest of Bay Area, you probably are a RE trying to pull a fast one on an unsuspecting reader of this blog.
I disagree. On Patrick.net there was a discussion about Rivermark (part of Santa Clara) where newer houses which were bought in 2005 were listed below their original purchase price.
On http://www.sanjoseproperty.com/newsletter.html you can see that sales for SFH are down 26% YOY and median is down 4% YOY.
I don’t think this can be called “strong” market.
Rentor;….Just sit back, read and learn kid….Your brain function stopped long before fingers on the keyboard did….
StuckBA;….Rivermark is the strongest market…Bordered by Sun,Cisco,Intel & others…..Last two sales over 1-mil Oct, 20, 1.3 mil & Oct 25 1,259 mil….Your perseption is wrong my friend…
Not sure what the last sales data in Rivermark is supposed to mean. Just the sales price doesn’t say whether the prices are going up or down. All you are saying is it is an expensive area. And I wasn’t disagreeing with that.
Here is a link to Patrick.net discussion about Rivermark.
http://patrick.net/wp/?p=359#comments
Here is the MLS number for the Rivermark house.
661592 (4428 WATSON CI)
Look it up on zillow and you will see that the asking price is less than last year’s purchase price.
More than Rivermark, your original comments were about Santa Clara. See from the report I linked.
I repeat. When sales are down 26% YOY and median down 4% YOY, it cannot be called a “VERY strong” market.
I don’t give a rats ass what “patrick” has to say….When you don’t have any inventory its hard to maintain the sales pace…Kinda common friggen sence don’t ya think ??
have a house in my neighborhood, was on the market for a year. Its been off the market for a month now. Its empty.
The “inventory” then is down. How much you want to bet
its still in “inventory” though?
Scdave,
Maybe the market is very strong in Santa Clara. Or maybe the listings have dropped because so many sellers are being coached by realtors to list their homes in time for the “Spring rebound,” which the NAR keeps predicting.
Both are legitimate possibilities, and time will tell what’s really happening in Santa Clara.
“I don’t give a rats ass what “patrick” has to say….When you don’t have any inventory its hard to maintain the sales pace…Kinda common friggen sence don’t ya think ??”
A little too common for my taste. There are large sources of inventory which are currently hidden from view, including
- new homes which were somehow mistakenly counted as “sold” even though the contracts were cancelled;
- stuck flippers who will have to sell when negative cash flow finally forces their hand;
- FBs who will have to sell when the ARM resets send their payments above their ability to pay.
OK. You are trading on thin ice here, scdave.
Are you saying sales are down because inventory is down ? If the supply is less, why are prices going down ? Why is a house in “strongest market” (and “bordered by Sun, Cisco, Intel”) being offered for less than the purchase price just one year after ?
You initially claimed condo’s distorting the data. So I showed you a report that separates SFH from condos. Now you claim sales down because inventory is down ?
You should have read that report. The inventory in Santa Clara is UP 10% YOU and sales are still DOWN 26% YOY. The sales price to list price ratio is 98%.
Your turn.
The Bay Area is a big mixed bag. Some areas are still selling while in others, properties languish.
SCdave:
You got this whole thing backwards CSCO, INTC, HQP have sold out. They are letting people go in the valley, bringing in H1B’s & L1’s and opening big Engineering factories in banglore. These big company managers instruct the engineers to teach H1B’s and L1’s how to do the job so they can take the work back to India.
Do you really believe most engineers in the valley believe they are anything but commodoties?
Most engineers if they lose a job get a paycut.
scdave says: “Rentor;….Just sit back, read and learn kid….Your brain function stopped long before fingers on the keyboard did….”
Yet this very same person also wrote:
a update
Their is now a grand total…
perseption
sence
rats ass
its hard (granted, these are just missing apostrophes - but why use them in “don’t” two times in the same sentence… then neglect them here?)
Are these ALL typos?
Time will tell. I lived in the BA for thirty years myself. Prices never went down, they went FLAT for a few years (which, yes, is the equivalent when inflation is considered). But there does seem to be a demand. So I guess I come down in the middle, and we’ll just have to wait.
Prices have gone down here before - after the tech bubble popped they went down about 10% over 2 years. But I definitely agree that the demand is as high as ever, regardless of what you read about people leaving the state/area. I made the same statement a few months ago here and a couple of you were ready to disembowel me.
In my opinion, there are only 2 ways you see prices fall by a material amount here in the Bay Area:
1) Take away people’s ability to buy through toxic loans - it’s the only thing keeping the trade going here. Once you need a down payment and the ability to repay principal, there will be no buyers left.
2) Foreclosures spike and banks start dumping properties on the market.
Luckily, both of those are currently happening. This is just getting started, folks.
(3) Build more… which is what is happening today. All over santa clara county more homes/condos/TH are being built.
The south bay area is growing upward these days with lots of three plus story developments. Anyone who was raised in the area finds the change appalling, whereas east coasters still see plenty of room for development. Once upon a time the Santa Clara Valley was a paradise before the microprocessor made its debut.
LOL there are still some natives like you and me left around here. thats good to know. Actually not so much CPu and chips we had declines soon after. But the shear heavy marketing of post Netscape bust what triggered the madness. Many prior companies were legit in product people … no hype. After Netscape it all changed… lots of horrible hype lying cheating.
MacAttack: your memory is faulty so you should consider upgrading it. Bay Area prices went down in the early ’90s in EVERY region. One of my co-workers at the time was significantly underwater in Sunnyvale, and in general it was understood that this was not an isolated case. My wife was lucky and bought a condo in Berkeley in ‘94 which was down over 25% from when the sellers had bought it. It’s easy to forget the bad times when they got better and it was a long time ago. This time will be oh so much worse.
“MacAttack: your memory is faulty so you should consider upgrading it.”
I second that. In the early 90s prices were down 20% across the board in the BA. Now if you didn’t have to sell during that time maybe you didn’t notice. But that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Stop spreading misinformation.
SCDAVE:
Is in a state of denial. When that happens you believe what you want to believe and disregard the rest. A bit like revisionsit history.
Now we find the chimp want more troops which he said weren’t needed during 2004 election. Just what Kerry said we needed.
Santa Clara is going to crash and burn along with rest of Bay Area and US Housing market. Are you seriously saying SC doesn’t have its fair share of toxic loans?
Kinda started a hornets nest here Did-Not-I….I think I am in agreement with SF…
If you are not in the mix here, then you cannot understand what is going on…I have been through downturns more than most of you..When I see the little grassehooper RENTOR make the statements he does, it makes me chuckle…Its like taking to one of my children…
And to you;…WE RENT;…
Yet this very same person also wrote:a update
Their is now a grand total…
perseption
sence
rats ass
its hard (granted, these are just missing apostrophes - but why use them in “don’t” two times in the same sentence… then neglect them here?)
Are these ALL typos?
Yes, this is not my strong suit but, I try…Best thing to ever happen to this High School Diploma is the “Word Processor” SO, forgive my improper grammar….
With that said, you would do well to listen to every word I say regarding Real Estate…
I can see both sides of this discussion, and yes I did work and live in Silly Valley for several years so I know what I’m talking about. scdave is right in that inventory is crazy low in that area and its real tough to have any kind of significant market correction in an area with almost no inventory. I think we can all pretty much agree on that point.
However, it is totally debatable as to WHY the inventory is so low at the moment and is also debatable what inventory will do in the next few months. I would suggest that the 120 unit Santa Clara high-water mark in November is the baseline number moving into the spring and that we will see much higher inventory from there. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Santa Clara is immune from any of the global RE bubble forces that we have been discussing for months (years?) on this blog and Santa Clara certainly isn’t “different” or “special” in this regard.
Rentor, you’ve got it all backwards with your comments about H1B’s, and once again I know what I’m talking about having worked with MANY of them over the years. The problem with H1B’s (at the risk of over-generalizing here) is that they are by and large very naive people and they don’t understand the bubble dynamics or the Realtwhore shenanigans. In fact, I would submit that Silly Valley seems to have an endless supply of these greater fools that will buy into the “American Dream” at any price. Being non-citizens you would think that most wouldn’t want to buy but this is exactly the opposite of what actually happens. They want to buy badly and will often live several families to a household in order to make it happen. And many of the Indians and Chinese actually come from money to begin with so these newcomers are just natural sheep that are constantly being shorn by the Realtwhore scum. You take away all of these foreigners and the SV RE market would literally collapse overnight as many long-time resident citizens have figured out the scam and many have sold out to these very same H1B’s. Having personally met several people that have sold to H1B’s and other recent arrivals, I invite anyone to challenge me on this point and bring some examples.
Nevertheless, none of this means that SV won’t collapse. In fact, I would argue that SV is the ultimate suspension of reality (Google at $500/sh is just the latest example.) This will only make the inevitable collapse that much more astounding and shocking when it actually does happen. My prediction is that SV will be one of the last to go, but will wind up with equal or even greater losses than some of the well-known bubble spots (LV, Phoenix, SD, Sacramento, FL, etc.) The reason I say this is that Silly Valley was ground zero for the dot-bomb and the losses of the time STILL haven’t been remotely worked off so we now have 2 bubbles in the area for the price of one and the fallout will be immense - its just a matter of time.
Excellent post Darth Toll.
LOL! 800 sq ft Condos in 1998 were selling for around 73-83K. Around $100 sq/ft … that $580K home was selling at a third or less of todays prices. No reason for it! The tech mania is over. No more stock options! thats done with!
But what is even more surprising is the constructions that still is going on in Santa Clara. Lots of land out there. Im starting to see old business parks torn down and homes going up. Very common in no Santa Clara, San Jose, Sunnyvale, Mt View and Cupertino. Keep building !!! Lots of land out there
LL;….They just tore down the United Labratories facility on Scott Blvd and Shea Homes just broke ground on roughly 300 condo’s….But there is some back peddleing….Pulte just pulled out of a 70 mil deal at the corner of Monroe & Lawrence Exp….
Larry Ellison is buying up PeopleSoft, Seibel and other software companies in the valley and shipping the jobs over to India. I don’t care what your myopic view tells you, silly valley is toast.
The other Pulte site off Central and 237 is still going up…
another site by Shea is going up at Evelyn and 237… was old warehouses. Next to Avalon in Silicon Valley was an old Hotel next to AMD now bull dozed… still waiting to see what will pop up… Condos or TH…
As for Riverpark… LOL Back in the day people said There is no more land… thats when Riverpark was still next to Agnew state hospital…
As for Sun.. they canned that site next to Riverpark…
Cisco is and many others are trailing outside the state.
BTW The top guys only make up 5% or less of employers.
The majority are small businesses. There is bad news thee. Small Business is no where what it used to be and far under in hiring. Too Bad…
Louie, I agree with you. I honestly believe people in Santa Clara County are living in a state of denial and/or delusion. The only way they have been selling units there are with toxic loans. Like you said, there just aren’t that many top guys. And even if a young guy is making $100K, the only thing he could buy is a POS condo. No, SV’s days are numbered. Like it said in the Chronicle article, there has been a steady outflow of younger people from CA, and this will only continue. As they go, so will the good companies. Then let’s see these fools try to sell their stick boxes.
Actually read how older employees are retiring and moving out to better tax states. A couple a great older guys I knew have moved out. Much easier and cheaper to live in AZ NM OR WA and NV
Los Gatos $1,137,500.00 $1,260,000.00 -9.7%
Some former bubble hot spots suddenly look ice cold (including Los Gatos and Santa Cruz)
Santa Cruz $682,500.00 $753,000.00 -9.4%
Stucco;..Not sure on Santa Cruz but Los Gatos has backed off….
The Aptos numbers definately skew things. It used to be that Aptos had some pretty affordable homes compared to the City of Santa Cruz. The last two years even Seascape condos were going in the $750,000-$800,000 range. For freaking condos! I live in these middle class ghettos and pay $1600/mo rent for the priveledge of hearing my neighbor fart. I couldn’t imagine having to pay a mortgage for such wonderous acoustical medleys.
Me need spill chicker today.
“Not sure on Santa Cruz”
Neither am I, as figures don’t lie but liars do figure…
But -9.4% is a pretty big drop, however you slice it.
Los gatos and Santa Cruz were fueled by Stock Options.
But the Enron scandal and recent back dating pretty much
drained what was left. Dont wont happen again.
Not to mention the start up today are pretty weak,
we are comparing Utube advertising and Google to real products of past decades (HW and SW) … I saw a start up
recently which made ring tones.
The VCs will tell you what can be made has been made.
There just isnt anything really exciting out there.
scdave, what is the $/sq ft yoy?
I am not sure I can mine that data…I do know that anything “small” would sell for 500. per foot & up (1000-1400 sq.ft.)…Bigger than that would adjust…But, all would be over $400. per foot…
Back in 1998-99 i recall sq ft was around 110-120 or so..
I saw TH 2100 sq ft going for 189K this was off Capri in Campbell. Same TH now goes for $650’s or so. A SFH near by 3000 sq ft was going for 310K in 1998. Several new homes i saw in cupertino/sunnyvale border were around same range.
Those old Condos we see through out SCC built in 1970s around 800-1000 sq ft were around 115K or so.
Thats what I saw… it was typical in mid to late 97-98… i also recall near Foster City TH 2000 sq ft going for around $200K up in the city SF next to Mosconi center Condos around 135K for or so. Verry nice TH around nob hill were going around 200K or so.. unknown sq ft… two story places..
Now its all wack!
Bay Area native….prices go up, prices go down. Mom bought 1947 $14,000, sold 2005 $570,000 (up). I bought 1990 $175,000, sold 1996 $145,000 (down). I bought 1996 $225,000, comps now $650,000 (up, but not selling any time soon). Bay Area is just like any other area, sometimes more so, sometimes less so.
I know someone who just bought a 3100sf 4/3 0.25acre in Cupertino. listed for $2.3M. dunno what he paid, but that’s insane.
What are the taxes on a house like that?
Around 50K per year in property taxes.
NO…Prop#13…1.2% of sales price = roughly 26K
LOL you number is right dave.. sorry…
I read in Business Week a few months back …
Cover story on Toxic Loans. SF Bay Area /San Jose-Santa Clara
were high on i/o loans. The # was far more for this area than
any other parts of the country. Wow I was blown away. Not by
the number but the sheer media attention on this.
Ok, but scdave was just reporting on the current state of the market, not where it was going to . Some areas will go down slower than others and in some areas the data might be misleading . scdave is a good guy and he has been around for a long time .
While I think scdave is a bit of a crazy-talker, I can confirm what he said about inventory declines. Here in Fremont, inventory is taking a nose dive and is now down to +10% yoy. Back in August, Fremont inventory was +83% yoy.
I can’t be certain what’s causing it, but I suspect it’s optimistic sellers pulling their houses off the markets for the holidays and hoping to sell them next year. If I’m right, then in January inventory will rise MUCH faster than last year.
The nice thing about my prediction is that I only have to wait a month to verify or falsify it.
Inventory went down last year at this time as well.
According to the table Santa Clara is lower than San Jose. SJ has a few undesirable communities. SC -10% SJ +1.6%
You know what rolls down hill.
posted from thread ““More Regions Reporting Declines Than Increases”: CAR”
Perhaps I am a dullard, But I someone singing a diffrent song here? No “soft landing”?…. No buying opertunetiy? Pray tell will we be buggered till our eye’s pop out? Meet the new Boss same as the old Boss!
Sales prices should be up for existing homes because of all the remodels on existing homes.
Of couse that’s not built into the spin that they call “statistics” and crappola about how “numbers” don’t lie. That’s for dummies who never took differentiated calculus.
other than a gas or oil drilling town -there isn’t any increase anywhere
compton went up.
It’s cuz everyone wants to live there…
you bet cuz
posted “compton went up.”
They are not making any more land there, that is why!
Compton is different!
“posted “compton went up.”
There are some Companies which are setting up shop along the Alameda corridor to take advantage of the abundant cheap labor in the compton area. Believe it or not there is a huge amt of warehouses and sweatshop operations springing up along alameda Ave/off the 91 fwy/Rancho Dominguez areas. The area east of Cal state Domiguez still adding industrial parks. These are mostly warehousing/shipping oprations but with some modest industrial workshops added. Most of the labor force is second generation offspring of immigrants or immigrant nationals. The entire Alameda/710 fwy corridor cities of Compton, South gate, lynwood,Bell,cudahy, commerce,huntington Park,vernon fits this profile. These areas have humongous immigrant populations, and coincidently have seen abnormal 10-30% yoy increases in the median sold homes. THese areas are not what you would call prime RE locations, but the immigrants take them as is and will cram into these areas.
Isn’t Compton near the beach?
“Isn’t Compton near the beach?”
New buyer moves in to Compton. He asks his neighbor.
“How far is it to the beach?
His neighbor replies..
“Don’t know… No one’s ever made it…..”
LOL…funny imploder
“Isn’t Compton near the beach?”
Compton has had a thriving import/export business sector;
Main import:stolen property
Main export:crime
Jokes aside, It is said that no one can set up a business in compton: as soon as you open up a shop it gets looted and vandalized by the local jackals.
Once drove down Compton blvd and the entire 5 mile stretch of shops was one continuous unbroken wall of iron security curtains.
There are oil wells in compton
And a lot of metals too. Brass and lead.
“Although the statewide median price is on track to post just under a 7 percent increase for the year, there is a mixed …….”
What? Nov 05 – Nov 06 = +1.4%, but Dec 05 – Dec 06 is going to be +7%?
Trust me on this — the CAR will calculate the statewide YOY median in a way that provides a positive spin median soundbite. Never mind that, as you suggest, the Dec-Dec median (a better measure of actual YOY change than whatever nonsense CAR spews) is likely to turn negative…
I guess that’s what amazes me; their ability to spin that sea of red ink from their OWN report into a positive. I think the actual will be negative as well. After reading the statement again, I see they have given themselves an out: -5% YOY is in fact “just under a 7% increase”.
( just way the hell under
)
“Trust me on this — the CAR will calculate the statewide YOY median in a way that provides a positive spin median soundbite.”
GS, in all seriousness … how?
I mean, 12/05 - 12/06 median is pretty cut and dried. Is this not the way it has always been calculated? How could CAR fudge the numbers otherwise?
I’m not suggesting they won’t … I’d like to understand now how this might happen.
I checked the 12/05 median for detached SFH — $548,430. To get to their 7% projection, 12/06 will need to clock in at $586,820. But, as you can see from the last 3 months, the trend is not the CAR’s friend:
10/06 - $551,620, up 2.2% YOY
09/06 - $553,050, up 1.8% YOY
08/06 - $576,360, up 1.6% YOY
A sudden leap to 7% YOY appears highly unlikely.
BTW, just like corporations with blowout earnings in a particular year, the subsequent year presents big problems in YOY comparisons. As we get into 2007, California will be looking at BIG YOY declines unless the overall pricing trend reverses dramatically, and soon.
I recall a post several months ago, where someone (GS?) was arguing with a REIC clown about how was it possible to calculate the median price of houses sold over a period of several months.
Anyway, the spin will be to add ALL of the houses sold in all of 2005, and compare to ALL of the houses sold in all of 2006.
And of course such is a meaningless number.
Righto.
Median sales price is higher? Well, the fact is the the bottom is higher for the purchaser in terms of real ncome.
A 10% drop was a 20% gain.
Prices are higher in existing homes sales? Should be, they’ve nearly all remodeled.
Oh, but higher compared to what? The worst month in recent years or what is the base? Actually, I’ve seen some fairly “honest” base numbers in the R/E reporting, a rarity in “fact” spinning these fairy tale days.
The R/E market is going bust unless the financers can make 50 year loans attractive.
Own a home? Like the dude says, it’s an American dream becasue you have to be asleep to believe it.
When we wer a republic, it was illegal to tax ones home or take it for a tax “obligation” to pay the fraudulent IRS.
Remember 1913, Dec. 24, eve of. Birth of Fed. Reserve.
IRS is the gang that collects for them.
Yeah, an elf gave me the inside scoop. Santa Claus is gonna bring 5.6% on Monday.
Heres some more CAR spinning:
“Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in November 2006 compared with the same period a year ago were: Laguna Niguel, 51.2 percent; Huntington Park, 30.1 percent; Barstow, 24 percent; Colton, 23.8 percent; Paramount, 22.8 percent; Fontana, 15.7 percent; Hesperia, 15.1 percent; ”
Huntington Park: 100% spanish-speaking inner LA enclave. Astride the sooty grimy 710 fwy corridor.
.
Barstow: Ugliest desert pit stop on way to Vegas. SFH’s were under $100,000 last year so 24% meaningless.
Colton: one Ugly duckling IE slumburg. Ditto Fontana.
Paramount: faceless, little known spot on LA Map. Next to Compton but a slight improvement. 70% immigrant latino and their US- born offspring.
Hesperia: Forgettable High-desert waystop just before victorville: hugh amt of new tract-home construction. +15.5 YOY % in 2006 meaningless in this faceless high-desert exurb 3-4 hrs from LA. Next 2 years will be 30-40 % yoy decline guaranteed.
$500K for a house in King City is nuts. What does one do in King City? Grow lettuce? You can’t be thinking of commuting to San Jose from there!
I thought the same thing….
I was going to write the same ! I have driven through King City while going to LA from Bay Area. Houses are 500K there ? Incredible. Even after having read the blogs like this for more than a year, I am still amazed at how out of touch with reality this whole thing has been.
Funnier was a story in summer. In San Jose Mercury about homes in Los Banos not selling for 600K ! People in that story were “frustrated” by that.
Last 10 years have been an amazing experience. Stories to be told to our grandkids. First the equity bubble, now this. How insane and idiotic both were. In a sense, we live in historic times !
If you can’t handle the prices in King City just wander on over to Soledad. It’s much more affordable and you have the best neighbors in the world all in one place!
California is nuts, there is no other answer. I live in a place where people consider $600,000 hog feed. There’s some mighty fat hogs around here.
What are the visiting hours for Sur Han ???
Los Banos has to be one of the most pathetic jokes of this bubble! I drove through there this past summer and could not help laughing. They are building like there is no tomorrow, and I have no idea who is buying these places. At the time I noticed some were advertising incentives on their signage. That is basically a one street town, with the highway running right through the middle of it. At one end they were putting up a new Lowe’s, and at the other a new Home Depot. That podunk town needs two mega hardware stores? Give me a break. I can’t wait for this stupidity to end.
Doesn’t “Los Banos” mean “the bathrooms” in Spanish? Donde estas los banos, amigo? Down the hall and to the right…..
dustartist: Yes and no. Los Banos is exactly like “Bath Room” in that it is a euphemism for a toliet. In the case of the city of Los Banos, they mean “Bath Room” literally as “place with Baths” kinda like Bath, England.
Wikipedia knows all.
Yes and no. If you need to take a… well if you have to use the toilet, in England, France, etc., you literally ask for “the toilet.” In Spanish, you ask “para el bano (con tilde)” And don’t let your dog drink the “toilet water” in Paris, it’ll cost you a fortune.
“Today, McGavin said she’s ready to accept $470,000. ‘Now, if I get a deal at $470,000, I’d be happy.’”
Lift that sucker out of the earth, truck it down Hwy 101 50 miles to the south to a little city called Paso Robles and that should be do-able.
As has been explained ad nauseum here, month-to-month median prices are meaningless because of the small sample size.
Add to this the fact REO auctions are not included in the sample, nor are buyer “incentives”, closing cash-back deals, cancelled purchase contracts, the fact that the local MLS controls this data, etc, etc.
Very true. Fact is some builders around here are offering over $100K in incentives if you jump in now. No joke.
HARM –
Isn’t it interesting how every damn bit of information that gets ignored in RealtWhore stats would serve to make the picture look worse? No wonder we had to wait since the 1930s to see negative appreciation on a national level…
Have we come to accept “negative appreciation” as a politically correct term? Why not call it depreciation?
Retrograde price momentum, inverse equity accumulation, corrective wealth realignment, gosh, the possibilities are just endless…
“month-to-month median prices are meaningless”
However, they are the numbers that “the masses” find easiest to digest and parrot, therefore they are significant.
“month-to-month median prices are meaningless”
Noisy, not meaningless. If I saw prices drop 50% MOM, I would conclude that the market was crashing, even though I could’t say exactly how fast.
Those numbers are crazy Mar Vista up 6% and Culver City down 20+%. Makes no sense.
“Those numbers are crazy Mar Vista up 6% and Culver City down 20+%. Makes no sense.”
There are still some GF’s paying astronomical prices in the LA westside/mid-wilshire area. Only one sale recorded in Windsor park 90020 zip but it went for 2.7 mil. Zip 90036 park La brea district had 7 homes sold ave 1.2 mil(+21.2% YOY). LOz Feliz 90027 12 homes @$1.233. 90004 zip (west-half hancock park but east half so-so):11 sold @ $1.094 each +23.1 %.
Who is still paying these prices? And These zips aren’t actually part of the westside but in Mid-Wilshire/Mid-cities. Still a dwindling few GF’s with their heads in the sand.
Just to give a personal sliver of whats seems to be going on in the realestate industry. I am here in Sarasota Florida but I purchased a 2br2bath 1300sq ft condo in st. louis mo for 145.000 and did the financing through my local person here in Florida at Bank of America. Well in chatting with him i asked him how was business. He took on a grim look and said “not very good. I am hoping it picks up next year.”
That was the first time i actually saw someone with fear in his voice regarding the oncoming train wreck
oh and by the way he is on commission
Er, uh, can this be right for Sta. Barbara County? Maybe it is time to invest there…
Med Price
$497,780
Percent change in price from Oct 06
-40.4%
Percent change in price from Nov 05
-23.4%
Percent change in sales from Oct 06
2.8%
Percent change in sales from Nov 05
0.0%
Probably Santa Maria, or some other north county dumpsites.
“In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 47.2 percent, or 168 out of 356 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
52.8 percent, or 188 out of 356 cities and communities, showed the same level or a decrease in their respective median home prices from a year ago. So if we ranked cities and communties by price change, the median change would be negative. Good thing prices always go up in LA and The OC.
I was crossing my fingers checking out the Irvine numbers…whew…some other cities don’t look so good though…
How about Manhattan Beach or PV? DOH!
Irvine is different.
Well, it will probably take longer for the bubble to deflate here as the Irvine Company will hold prices up as long as possible: even if it means stopping new construction.
I am proud to say that I (and family) are one that left CA due to the high housing. No regrets from leaving the land of Hell.
I liked Santa Cruz very much. I simply wasn’t willing to pay an enormous weather premium. Portland suits me fine.
Median prices keep going up in California. It is a great time to buy. buy buy buy
And your job (renter or homeowner) alike is being
shipped out out out of the state.
In other news market prices of Nand chips (Ipod and other devices) decline by over 50% Flat panel TV’s prices are declining due to price competition. I guess with prices declining and generating less revenue it wont be easy for those Silicon Valley Chip makers to keep those $100K jobs around in California for long. But this has already happened before back in 1988-91.
Its all a cycle…
The neat thing is that a renter can easily move.
And a renter stays liquid.
The house across the street is selling for 4.5 m. Well, that’s the asking price.
I rent across the street and my rent is less than the taxes due on that house or this one.
They need to publish price per sq ft to get real picture. I suspect that might be down 20 %.
“They need to publish price per sq ft to get real picture”
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
Cool. Here is my zip code’s stats:
Rancho Bernardo 92127 25 $770 -26.7% 8 $392 -1.6% $317
Now I just saw an ad for new 4br 3200 sq ft McMansions in 4S Ranch offered at $750K or so — that would be $234 / sq ft. How can used home sellers hope to compete with 26% discounts on brand new homes?
P.S. The -26.7% shown above is the official drop in SFR price YOY for 92127. If you tack on another 26% to that to get down to the current offer price of $234 / sq ft for a nice, shiny, brand new McMansion, then I guess we are talking about a bleeding edge drop of 46% in price per sq ft since Nov 2005. And most folks don’t even have a clue about what is going down just yet, thanks to all the soft landing happy talk. Yesterday’s story that 1 out of 5 subprime loans made last year will go into foreclosure was the first news they read that suggested there might be a reason to just say no to zero downpayment option ARMs.
Soft landing my @$$!
$350 for a square foot in Compton! Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! This market has jumped the shark.
“$350 for a square foot”
How much for one rib?
-You mean you want an order of ribs?
No, how much for ONE rib?
Can you just pour the soda in my hand?
Can you break a hundred dollar bill?
“But over the course of the six-month listing, McGavin received but one offer from a would-be buyer, for $450,000, which she declined. Since then, she’s dropped the price multiple times, posted an online ad in hopes of finding a buyer, and found out just how frustrating a slow market can be.”
“Today, McGavin said she’s ready to accept $470,000. ‘Now, if I get a deal at $470,000, I’d be happy.’”
My wife’s advice to her sellers when she was a realtor was, “Your first offer is almost always your best offer.” Ms. McGavin is going to find that out, cuz the next offer she receives will likely be for less than $450K. In the meantime, how much has she paid out each month for her depreciating asset?
First, in a declining market, I agree with your wife’s advice.
However, in a stable or increasing market, your wife’s advice does not necessarily hold. A realtor is always motivated to tell a client to accept the first offer, since waiting for a better offer involves more work for the realtor and a marginally improved commission to the realtor if a better price is achieved. (This argument is cribbed from Freakonomics which cited a study that showed that realtors themselves left their houses on the market than they did for their clients.)
Now, if Realtors learned from this that leaving their houses on the market for a longer period is better, all of us will have more sport to watch as they sit on their depreciating assets.
” realtor is always motivated to tell a client to accept the first offer”
A couple of coworkers who sold were told the same. Accept your first offer. One guy tells me they had one offer and that was nearly 10 % over asking. Let me repeat there was one offer. Would you as a buyer overpay knowing your were the only bidder.
the flip side is realtors are motivated to tell buyers there are multiple buyers, which there isnt.
Thats got to stop. You cant have this kind of fraud
But, she doesn’t want to give her house away!
An update from the depths of OC. An open house that I visited last summer is still on the market with apparent desperation kicking in. The 2800 sf. house is in Santa Margarita - was purchase by an elderly flipper for $ 980 k and was selling for $ 1.4 million this last summer - lots of upgrades, new flooring everywhere, windows, shutters, custom stairway bannister, front door, new pool, etc Today, the house is still on the market for $ 1.29 million but unfortunately, the 2800 sf homes in that neighborhood rarely sell above $ 1 mill any longer.
Just to break even, this guy’s strike price would have to be $ 1.2 million (assuming a 4% RE commission and the $ 200 k in upgrades he claims).
Major DOH!
That is kinda sad for an old flipper, but screw him he should have known better.
Screw anyone who thinks we should pay for their retirement just because they are land owning barons. I work hard, very hard for my income. When it comes time to buy, it will be based on cold hard numbers. Nothing else.
There are so many flippers caught swimming naked as the tide goes out. Its going out pretty far. Instead of running for the high ground, they’re chasing the receeding water to “cover themselves.”
But notice that rumbling sound.
The “spring bounce” Tsunami is approaching.
Neil
Very true. The tsunami alarm will sound during the first few weeks of January.
Crispy, I agree on your timing. My bet is there will be a rush of sellers trying to beat others to the spring punch.
Neil: your earlier comment was spot on. The only bounce this spring will be in the inventory. Nobody left to buy, builders still producing, and a ton of greater fools praying for a spring miracle. Sorry folks, the game is over.
TILT!
ROTFL. M.B.A, that was too funny.
But I still like the panicing guy from the movie Aliens shouting “game over man, game over!”
CA Guy, you are right. This hampster wheel of a game is now over.
Neil
Bush is working hard to legalize 30 million illegal immigrants and have FHA give them 110% loans in order to increase minority ownership and social justice because he really cares about their well-being.
He cares that his banker buddies have a new stock of inventory.
Major pain coming for Rancho Santa Margarita. There is no one left to buy at a cool mil. Heck, most of the smart have exited and wouldn’t pay more than 300K to live there.
Case in point, as promised, I will keep you up to date with the guy I work with. Last week, after 7 weeks, he got an offer. Well, now seems the buyer got cold feet. Me thinks the buyer found a better deal, probably not, or realized that 130K down payment is the largest check he and the wifey will ever write, so they thought twice about it. By this summer my buddy is gonna be screaming for 500K and the dopey buyer can come back and offer 450K, saving 25% while carrying “only” a 320K mortgage. I think the prospective buyer got some ol’ tyme religion.
Let that greedy old fart rot.
What about other purchase costs and then, carrying costs including utilities, alarm system, gardener, cleaning people, pool cleaner, taxes, etc.
“Foreclosures are climbing in California. More than 19,000 California properties entered some stage of foreclosure in November 2006, a 19 percent increase from October and more than three times as many as a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.”
“The year-to-year bump of 218 percent might be cause for alarm, but no one seems too worried, according to regional economist Jack Kyser. Sales are at 21st century lows in the state, but except for a few areas, folks seem willing just to bide their time and wait it out.”
I think I saw this movie…is was..3rd day, no..day 30, no.. “13 days” yeah that was the one.
If you are a tenant or looking to rent, make sure you are careful when chosing your landlord. Link.
“But over the course of the six-month listing, McGavin received but one offer from a would-be buyer, for $450,000, which she declined.”
That offer of $450K was then….I dont think you will get an offer that much todays world… same person would go far under that given the circumstances of today. You will have to go even further.
450K in King City. My God, I would have taken that money and ran! She will regret the day she rejected it.
OT-
But has anyone other than me noticed an increase in the reporting of fires in the Los Angeles local news. I’ve noticed about 4 in the last 2 days and was going to write it off to the fact the poor were trying to get warm until I remembered one was in Malibu recently
Well if you wanna torch your home and try to “hide” it, I can think of no better time than Christmas time to attempt such a dastardly deed. Hell they give you the how to on the morning shows with the demonstrations of Christmas trees going up in flames in 30 seconds.
Coming up next on Today, “For the cost of a string of cheap Christmas lights you too can get out from under your crushing mortgage.”
I saw all of the fires on the news this morning and thought the same thing.
2 Victorians in Mar Vista went up overnight.
A former packing plant in Ventura that was being renovated
and 1 other fire in greater LA of undetermined causes.
Insurance Fraud and Arson are pretty significant crimes so if the thesis holds it must be pretty desperate times for somebody.
I doubt that the fires are arson for the reason that to fully insure your home in case of a total loss you need to get the full-replacement policy. Since in actuality it costs way less to build your home than the market value of the home (these days, at least), your insurance policy will pay for the rebuilding of your home — but you’ll still owe the mortgage!
You’re right of course, as I wasn’t thinking along those lines and just having a bit of fun. That Picasso in the foyer was covered under a seperate policy :0
The bank gets to actually choose what to do with the money and if they go against building (pain in the ass to administer to make sure the money goes to the builder and not some caribean vacation!) they basically eat a loss and given it was their decision it is like a short sale where the FB is discharged from the tax implications.
So in a way it can be profitable to burn your upside down house down…
But if you are under-insured, and start a fire.
The FB has a face saving way to go BK, because their house caught fire and it was a disaster.
It couldn’t have been anticipated, not the FBs fault.
Everyone will feel sorry for him and he doesn’t have to disclose he is an FB.
True. But to all the future Kind hearted possible landlords and lenders:…a bankruptcy, is a bankruptcy, is a bankruptcy, is a…..
Depends… also if you burn your house you get to have money for your burned down property inside and the flat plasma TV paid for by the equity line. Technically there is a mortgage type lien on goods purchased with an equity line but it would be hard to prove… especially if the paper trail leading to it also has been torched!
Perfect Weather = Yes in CA we have droughts and brush fires. Its just normal. Lots of skin cancer… but thats what you get… next to the ocean… nice buts its poluted. Thats normal.
The perfect weather premium is not much than marketing hype and some fools do buy into it. They are paying for free air too.
LOL such fools.
a 1.4 percent increase over the revised $547,870 median for November 2005,
CAR revised the number from a year ago? Huh? That doesn’t look suspicious at all…
Anyone have the unrevised number?
“Median price of a home in California at $548,400 in November, up 16.2 percent from year ago; sales decrease 11.2 percent”
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzU3MjI=
November 2006 median = $555,290
Change over original 2005 median:
[(555,290/548,400)-1] X 100% = 1.26%
Can you say “deceleration?”
Got an email from a college girlfriend today. She and hubby bought RE is Dublin and Fresno in 05′ and planned on being millionaires by flipping.
Now they are trapped and the water is rising. What a bummer….
But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain;
The best-laid schemes o’ mice an ‘men
Gang aft agley,
An’lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!
Yeah, that and 1.6 million dollars in mortgages on a combined income of under 140K seems to me to be a disaster in the making.
and a divorce when they start blaming each other…
“Yeah, that and 1.6 million dollars in mortgages on a combined income of under 140K seems to me to be a disaster in the making.”
Hmmm… To my eye, that looks pretty close to the normal mortgage loan to HH income ratio in California. Where is the problem?
stucco if that is really the case 140hh income over 1.5 mortgage these people deserve everything they have coming
the herd mentality is a funny thing
“the herd mentality is a funny thing”
I personally find it more alarming than funny. My sister is buying a home for $300K in the midwest, which sounds more like a normal California price to me. But all her friends told her it is a good deal, so I guess it is a good deal…
I loaned my sister $10K for a $200K condo in Fullerton in 2002. They moved up to a $300K house in Corona in 2003. Good enough; zillow sez $450K now but maybe more like $375.
No life preservers available… the last boat off the Titanic has floated away…
You mean she is your ex now
Kinda reminds me of that ex of mine who decided to break up with me, after I bailed her numerous times from financial disaster. She was a single mom with high school education and she decided to marry this jamaican dude who was 10 years younger (by love I guess after cheating on me with him, and also to be able to bring him to the US of A). She also did such a wise move after loosing her job.
Shortly after she was getting evicted from her place and declared BK. Had to salvage her cat from the pound at the last second. Managed to get another kid with the guy before divorcing him. This after a rocky relationship where she thought she could start a buisness reselling home made jewelry (and drug trafficking on the side).
As for me I am quite prosperous and own free and clear my house in San Diego… I am also involved with a decently good looking and intelligent woman and can thank that ex she dumped me.
Reminds me of a story about an Enron President who got s-canned because he didn’t like the idea of “trading” and the other deals that were going on. He could have fought the see-ya-later but told one of his loyal underlings that “sometimes the best revenge is to go on living.” He ended up buying the pipeline business from Enron. Became part of Kinder-Morgan….yeah, now he is a billionaire.
Rich Kinder is/was the 2nd luckiest man that used to work for Enron.
Lou Pai is the first. If Lou hadn’t gotten divorced and had to liquidate his options and leave Enron, he would be in jail with Jeff Skilling right now.
Christ, and I thought my life was suboptimal because I’m only saving 40% of my gross income when I was aiming for 50%.
I just got an unsolicited email from NationPoint Mortgage. The subject line is: “Thinking of buying a home? It’s a buyers market.”
Here’s the text from the body of the email:
It’s a buyers market. Take advantage.
Mortgage rates are still at historical lows. And home prices have fallen in many areas. The inventory of homes for sale is up 35% vs. last year. More homes for sale gives you more options and generally means fewer interested buyers for home sellers, which drives down home prices. You, the home buyer, are now calling the shots.
We’ve got a home loan for your personal situation.
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‘We’ve got a home loan for your personal situation’
sign me up for the ‘no payments till foreclosure’ plan.
OC Renter has plenty of those, 1st payment defaults on his/her blog.
I can’t say I’m waiting for a mortgage that lasts 50 years. Send this e-mail to the trashcan…
It’s amazing how close a 50-year payment is to a 30-year one. A 50-year amortized loan can’t help much.
Exactly right. If you qualify with a 50, but not with a 30, you’re living on the edge.
It’s a Dead-buyers market.
Mortgage rates are still at historical lows
Which means that they have nowhere to go but up. And then prices will fall and…. you’re underwater!
Remember: you can always refinance the mortgage if the rates fall, but you cannot “refinance” your original purchase price.
500 K in King City, WTF? Went to the Monet in Normandy Exhibit in Raleigh yesterday , 50 Monets gathered from around the world, illustrating the development of his style. Absolutely beautiful, and Oh yeah, in North Carolina!! Weather has been terrible, blue skies and highs in the 60’s and 70’s the last few weeks. As a native Californian I’ve almost forgotten how “special ” California really is these days.
OT, but can you believe Rosie called “The Donald” a “Snake Oil Salesman”? …and he’s claiming he’s never been bankrupt. Who would have thought?
Yes, it is OT. Kindasorta. Donald IS a “real estate mogul,” only his funds came from his billionaire father. It takes a special kind of, erm, “skill” to lose money running casinos where drunk people are busy giving you money for watered-down “free” liquor.
I’m with gRosie on this.
Lou, where in the hell have you been? Haven’t seen you in awhile. How’s TX? You’re around Houston, right?
I’m here, still blogging. Glad you remembered me!
Houston’s boring. The real RE action is occuring in OC.
lol i never thought i would say this but kudos to rosie
trump is such a windbag and living in nyc you are constantly
reminded of his real estate empire
when is opening day for the nj generals of the usfl?
herschel walker and doug flutie in the backfield what an a**
The Donald plays with other peoples money not his. He just collects a management fee.
Half.
Can somebody tell me why some cities aren’t listed in the CAR numbers?
Maybe not enough transactions?
Maybe not enough appreciation?
C’mon GS, give me your insight on this one…
OT but I would just like to know how many on this blog make less than $100k/yr. Just wondering.
I don’t want to join the chorus of SCDave bashing from above, since there are many ways to intepret the data. I will add however, that a Realtor.com search for SFR in Santa Clara turns up 82 properties. Still not a lot. Since I don’t have apples to apples numbers to compare, I don’t dispute the number above. Just more data. From my standpoint, that market looks relatively tight. Oracle will probably lower the ax on a few employees to make their financials look better, and Cisco is in one heck of a rut. Sun is whacking jobs, as is Intel. Lots of empty commercial space in the SV. Lots of construction adding jobs and inventory locally, but the jobs in that business have peaked. All data points to consider. The options backdating business will probably peak in 2007 with regards to people getting in trouble with the law.
The R/E is over and for a very long time. This isn’t a quick dip in a bull market like the 1990’s. This is a the beginning of a long long long bear winter.
A 10% decrease was a 20% increase.
Yeah, inventory of homes, like the unemployment numbers, don’t count the ones taken off until spring, or the ones about to be listed.
Prices of existing homes appreciated somewhere? Wow, well, of course, with all the remodels and upgrades I would think so. DUH.
That stats are skewed.
R/E has some heavy carrying costs.
A few more jobs lost to India ….
A few more million illegals just crossed the border and are willing to depress yet another industy wages.
A few more thousand Indians and Chinese to replace the few engineers left in Silicon Valley.
All the soon to be retirees who won’t be … and then they’ll need to sell that retirment condo they bought in the boom because of carrying costs when they’re upside down.
Mortgage rates rising.
Toxic loan balloon payments and adjustments are coming due …
TILT
Full Tilt
Ruth,
You keep doing it.
A 10% decrease is not the same as a 20% increase.
A 50% decrease is the same as a 100% increase.
Say you have $100. 20% increase gives you $120. A 10% decline then leaves you with $108.
I am happy to report that my husband and I decided, this past summer, to depart CA for greener pastures. We sold our seven-year old, 1376-sq.ft. home in Oceanside for $455K and purchased a brand new, 2988-sq.ft. 4BR + bonus room home in Morrisville, NC (a suburb of Raleigh) in a great neighborhood. We are thrilled!!! Our monthly payment (fixed rate, mais of course) is $1000, and we plan to pay the house off in 15 years or so. The best part is that here, we can actually afford to live close to where my husband works (within five minutes!) versus his 1h15min., twice-a-day commute on the Coaster (commuter train) from Oceanside to Sorrento Valley, CA, and this buys us scads more family time. Our kids attend a nearby private school and — also fabulous — we no longer deal with TRAFFIC, which to me is a four-letter word after our years in CA. We enjoyed our time in CA, but watching the RE market there closely, and living within our means/incurring no debt, while there are two things that are really paying off for us now. We are so happy to have been able to airlift out and move to a great place to raise our kids. I feel sorry for those who are still there, and now sinking in their own morass (I’m referring to those who have lived beyond their means), but it’s true that the signs were all around them … I hope folks who made poor decisions can pick up the pieces and recover financially — and hopefully not make the same foolish moves on the next go ’round. Wishing you all happiness and prosperity this Christmas and in 2007!