Post Weekend Topic Suggestions Here!
These topics will be run on through the holiday on Monday as well. Also, send in your housing bubble pics to:
photos@thehousingbubbleblog.com
Please type ‘HBB’ into the message bar to aid in sorting.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Here’s one we did last year. What Christmas gift would you get for you neighborhood realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser or any other related industry member?
http://www.80stees.com/pages/t-shirts/Mr-Bubbles-t-shirts.asp
Oops, pluralised it. Let’s try again.
http://www.80stees.com/pages/t-shirts/Mr-Bubble-t-shirts.asp
What happened to Mrs. Bubble? How did she slip away?
What about a link to Ben’s blog on their websites.
A fan with $hit-protection!
I’d get my local realtor and banker BS meters/alarms to hang around their necks. Whenever they opened their mouths it would measure the quality, intensity, and quantity of BS and alert others around them.
In addtion, the meters/alarms would be equipped with GetStucco wit, imploder like humor, TxChick whipping spice, and Schadenfreude wryness.
A clue.
How about a framed picture of a bird:
http://bas.scheffers.net/snaps/safari/m_007-vulture-in-a-tree.jpg
Particularly, a vulture.
Twist and I recommend these:
http://shop.renaissancecreative.com/
By the way, thanks for letting us back on : )
T-Shirt:
Travel Agent 1996 = RE Agent 2006
“Here’s one we did last year. What Christmas gift would you get for you neighborhood realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser or any other related industry member?”
A soul.
“Here’s one we did last year. What Christmas gift would you get for you neighborhood realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser or any other related industry member?”
A 20lb trout and a free sex toy with a mail in rebate.
Have you been looking at my wife’s Christmas list? I need to encrypt my files.
Oh! Again! What happen to you as a child! We are all evil! Come on! I AGREE! Anyone that tell you something is to good to be true is evil.
I am sooooo sorry for all the bad realtors in the world! Let them burn in ///// Please the good realtors be cherished!
Gift card to a BK attorney!
2006 edition - What Color is your Parchute
Lump of coal! -
Ben,
I asked for this in another thread, but I would like to see bloggers reponse on how much money you should make to afford a home that costs:
150K
300K
500K
750K
1M
Just to get a feeling for what kind of income it “really” takes to afford one of these monsters.
Thx!
The question is income growth. If you have a high income but it is not growing then you will be left behind soon until this bursts and comes back down. Only the very rich at CEO level and above have had income gains of two figures or more year after year.
50K
95-100K
250-300K
500K+ for anything above 750
TX,
I agree with you all the way up to 750-1M. I would think that as you get into this range, you can start to spend a larger proportion of your income on housing (as the rest of your costs do not rise proportionally to your income)? So, for example, someone making 300K a year can probably afford to spend a larger % of their income on housing then someone making 30K a year?
Other then that, I pretty much agree with you. 3X income seem to be your rule?
I have been told by several banker friends down here that qualifing at 10X income is not all that unusual anymore. That’s just amazing, I don’t understand why people would wake up and decide to throw out lending standards that have worked for 100 years. Just don’t get it.
Agree. IMO, one should earn about $30K per $100K mortgage up until you get to the $250K income level. At that point, one **could** go to 50% mortgage-to-income, IF they wanted to. Of course, they could also invest that money or (gasp!) give some to charity…
Clarification: their monthly carrying costs could be 50% of monthly income, if one makes over $250K/year. But that would be pushing it, IMHO.
which brings up the point, why does someone who makes that much need a mortgage anyway? I’m working hard, putting off buying for the next few years because of this crap, and planning on being able to buy with all cash… someone who has one of those serious incomes could do that in a fraction of the time, presuming they don’t need a castle dedicated to screaming about their prodigous levels of consumption.
Thank you! If I’m going to buy anything over about 350K, I’m going to pay cash. If I can’t pay cash, I don’t want it.
Ditto.
My income is currently very high, about $200,000, and I figure the 2 and a half times that would be $500,000 house. However my income can greatly vary. I could go back to a $90,000 annual rate in a couple weeks. With outsourcing these days and a global economy (and I’m a an extremist in favor of all out free trade with anyone), I think there is no way people can count on their income levels to remain the same or go higher - not anymore. As a result, I think either the 2 and a half times rule is too high, people ought to go for short term mortgages, or people ought to save enough in government securities to save up for at least 50% of the price of a house before they take out a loan. And that’s in case they have to downsize their jobs. I told this to someone before and they complained: “But what about young people who want to start families? They should have a house when they are in their 20s and cannot afford to save 50% of their incomes!” I tell them that starting a family is a free choice and not a necessity. It’s their own responsibility to look at the global trends and seriously consider how long they think their career and incomes will really last! Many people start families in their 30s. My buddy became a father at age 45. Jim Rogers (Commodities investor guru) became a father at 50 and advises that’s the best way to go about it. The point is to adjust your savings and investment for the the liklihood of downsizing your job in a global economy.
Another appropriate rejoinder: “Your kids won’t even know whether you own or rent, and in any case, who is the boss, you or them?”
> But what about young people who want to start families? They should have a house when they are in their 20s
What’s wrong with renting when you have small children? No need to put off starting a family, if you want one; you just have to decide what your priorities are. Financially, starting a family might be easier with 40; but biologically it’s easier with 25.
Forget the family! I have a grown daughter that has told me that I have been wrong all these years giving money to charity when she had to take out student loans . I am a bad mother!
Maybe it depends on what charity. If you give it indiscriminately to people who use the $ to buy drugs or guns, you are making a statement that that type of person is more valuable than your daughter. I never give indiscriminately to the poor. When I give to charity, it has to help the rich and middle class, my friends, my family, my and me as well: American Cancer Society. American Heart Association, Nature Conservancy. It is cruel to give money to strangers who most likely will not use it to become productive members of society than to give money to someone you love.
Glenda,
my SU college professor friend often tells me there is a huge difference in attitude between kids financially responsible for their stint there and the ones who are still on Mom and Dad’s dime.
As a “pay for your own” student myself, I’m thinking she’ll thank you in the end. (Bosses and even vendors often remarked on a work ethic that was unlike co-workers…when the money is finite, those efficiency skills get mighty honed and you are HUNGRY!)
Bill,
You’re assuming your reading audience is all-male. Remember, a good number of posters here are female. With us, you’ve got to have your “family” ducks in a row by the time your 30, or you risk the whole infertility battle. That, in itself, can be very, very costly — financially, mentally and physically.
I’m with the other posters. Right now, we rent, and have three small children, one of whom we conceived while renting. They haven’t a clue who we pay for the right to live in OUR HOME (bank or landlord), nor should they care.
We are comfortable at an income of $200K-$250K with a good 20% down payment in a $700K house. Only one car payment of other debt (1.9% interest). We also have the assets to pay off most of the mortgage if we needed to.
“I would like to see bloggers reponse on how much money you should make to afford a home that costs” x amount:
You have to balance home prices with what taxes you’re paying with that property, where you are in your life cycle, and how many people you’re responsible for, and what inheritance you’re counting on (joke, LOL).
In many homes locally, taxes are the greater proportion of the monthly mortgage payment.
I own a home we paid $160k for (with $5k taxes) although it was in tough shape. We’ve dumped another 30K in material cost into it but did almost all labor ourselves. Even though we put 50% down I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone making less than six figures in household income, not if you want to save money for college and retirement at the same time. BTW, we’re not big spenders either….$6 cable, 1 vehicle, no vacations. Skinny kids do seem to put away adult portions of food though….husband’s got female cousins that modelled…. size 2 at 5′10″, you should see what they put away….costly!
what is $6 cable? surely you jest.
I pay $10.50 for mine including taxes. Its simply analog cable channels 2-24. Includes all the over-the-air broadcast networks which would be free anyways, plus a few more cable channels. Since I only have time to watch ~5 hours of TV a week, it didn’t make sense to get anything other than the basic plan.
No, what do we get….13 stations. I pay $6.75/mo. Just the basics..and I get the school cancellations.
“I asked for this in another thread, but I would like to see bloggers reponse on how much money you should make to afford a home that costs:”
Mike, there are so many variables. Does the person have kids? If so, how many? The income should also allow the person to fully fund retirement and save for a rainy day. I have found that most owners go “all in” on their house. Once they own a house they don’t think they need to save for retirement or a rainy day. Their house will see them through all possible emergencies.
The last house my wife and I had we paid less than 2.5 our annual income and I was still nervous as hell. I think a married couple with no kids should stick to 2.5 times income. A married couple with kids should really stay at 2.0 times income because they have so many potential disasters they might face.
I think we forget personal safety nets on this blog. If a potential owner has the bank of “mom and dad” to protect them in a bind then this figure gets skewed once again. They can be a little more aggressive.
I agree! 2 times if you have children counting child care cost. 21/2 if you have grown chldren ( they still csot some money) or if you have no children at all!
You usually have a starter house first, 20% down, live there for 5-10 years, and “pay down” the mortgage. Then when you sell you have maybe 50% equity, which means a big down payment on the next house. So, I think the income level to affoard a certain price house mostly applies to first time home buyers.
In the past, we’ve been lucky enough never to pay more than 2 times our combined gross for a house. Instead of buying “more house,” we’ve opted to save more for retirement.
I personally wouldn’t take a mortgage for more than twice my gross annual income, but that is because I want to own a house, not to be owned by one.
When I bought our present house, it was for 1.25x my salary, with 20% down (borrowed from my corporate pension plan). When I lost my job a few years ago, we didn’t have too much stress from that size of payment. We refinanced to a 15 year loan at 5% a couple of years ago and are in no hurry to pay it off any faster than that.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061220/ye_top_business_2006_ye5a.html?.v=2
Housing top biz story of the year
Hmmm, from the above: China’s banks are reportedly too loose with loans. Is there a “Loosest Lending Gap” that they are trying to close?
Get your post-Christmas shopping started early. Who has seen this? “I Told You There Was a Housing Bubble”
http://www.cafepress.com/sarcasticsport2/2012838
Here was my only attempt at using CafePress:
http://www.cafepress.com/nnjbubble.68233219
jb
Ha! Yeah, that’s why it’s just a prayer.
A funny concept but couldn’t they have done just a tad more design work on the t-shirts? It looks like a cheap iron-on that we got out of cereal boxes as kids. I want to look stylish when I’m rubbing some FBs nose in their stupidity and recklessness.
Grim — that was a great one.
Whats Fair and Reasonable? Here in NYC how many people can really afford $2000+ a month in rent all by themselves? Yet they do because they own almost nothing. Or they have a roomate “share” a one bedroom apartment.
Realistically, How many people really do make $75K+ a year to “afford that $2000+ month payment?
Another NEW condo building here in Long Island City on the east river overlooking Manahatan just put up a big Now Renting banner.
The first buliding a few years ago were selling for $60-90K yes that redicuolus low price in NYC…….the catch……..you knew there was one……….It was built on almost all borrowed money so the monthly maintence fee was over $2000 per month !!!!
I am also starting to see a few Commercial buildings in LIC, have Large space available and for rent signs they were not there just 2-3 months ago.
Richard, that is great. We will be looking for new digs in April and May. Our current building is full of snot-nosed twenty-somethings that act like spoiled teenagers. I can tell you how most of them afford their rent, “Mommy & Daddy”. I want a crash just so the youngsters might learn some humility and manners.
that new rental in lic is now offering 1 month free rent
oooh we now it is only $2180 a month for 700sq feet of stainless stell granite bliss
Will Ben every take a day off?
Or how about this one: will the magazines be filled with articles about how a less materialistic Christmas would actually be better in 2007, or in 2008?
No, Ben is actually a robot. He is programmed to blog until he needs a reboot.
Domo arigato, Ben Jones.
Unless he is a Mac.
Here’s one:
“If you have a message for David Leareah, what would it be?”
saw your book= $ 1.14
not worth that
My message would be physical, non-verbal kick in the balls with all I got. I’d bring Droopy Diapers with me to film it all.
I don’t think Lereah has any balls. He forfeited them to the NAR a long time ago. Just give him a good throat punch so he can’t spew his bull$hit any more.
Based on the other replies, my sense is that you and I are the only ones with any balls around here NYCboy.
Cap’n…
I don’t know if you noticed, but NYCBoy sounds a little cranky today. (see post where he wants to shoot down the CNBC satellite).
Something tells me that this isn’t the correct moment in time to be talking to him about his ba!!s.
“(see post where he wants to shoot down the CNBC satellite).”
LMAO….. I must go see this now!
Cranky? I’m almost giddy. Christmas is so near. My wife lets me have my balls twice a year, on my birthday and Christmas. I get to see the little fellows again in a couple of days and then it’s back into her purse for 6 months.
Get a good lawyer.
You have the right to remain silent…
You are being watched.
http://davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com
Repent.
Just how many Florida condos are you underwater on?
Lereah responds to Why are people so skeptical?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/16314121
Where are all the real men anymore?
Have University of Virginia rescind his PHd in economics that , and sue him for defermation of that schools graduate program.
A Visit from St. Lereah
( The Patron Saint of Spring Bounce )
“Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the (open ) house
Not a GF was bidding, not even a louse( lo-ball );
The twirlers were assigned to their corners with care,
In hopes that St. Lereah could find his way there.
The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of Plasmas-games danced in their heads;
And mamma with her statue, and I in my cap,
Had just settled down for a big equity slap,
When out by the Hummer there arose such a clatter,
I hoped it was Ben, dropping helicopter matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
It was stuck, wouldn’t open, damn subcontractor trash!
The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
Gave a luster of mid-day to the FSBO signs below,
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature intellect, and eight purveyors of cheer.
With a little old driver, in an S U V from KIA,
I knew in a moment it must be St. Lereah.
Louder than a train wreck, his cheerleaders they cried,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them with pride;
“Now, James! now, Donald! now, Alan and Cramer!
On, Suzanne! on, Ben! on Kendra and Disclaimer!
To the top of the chart! to the top of them all!
Now REFI away! REFI away! REFI away all!”
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an assessment, that mounts to the sky;
So up to the house-flop, the cheerleaders they drew,
With an van full of tricks, and St. Lereah too.
As I drew back my head, and was turning around,
From the kitchen there came, Suzanne with a bound.
She was dressed only in fur, from her neck to her waist,
And her teddy was all tarnished, with flour and paste;
A pan of warm cupcakes, she presented with glee,
In addition I can offer, “Coffee, tea or me?”
In front of a mirror, the Trump man he stood,
Counting each of his hairs…whatever the good (that is)…???
And Alan and Ben, discussed rather deliriously,
The merits of taking, the Euro more seriously.
The talented Kendra performed like a true busker,
Buying properties galore, in a state next to Corn Husker.
The stock choices of Cramer truly did astound,But he researched them quite thoroughly, and deemed them all sound.
He ranted and raved, then proclaimed with a thump;
“These Builders on the DOW are ready to jump!
Pulte Homes and Toll Bros, I give them full support.”
Privately of course, he was selling them all short.
The other two shills worked as a fine team,
Polishing granite and stainless, to an unnecessary gleam.
The boss man himself, tackled the Big Trouble.
It was his job to spin away, the Existence of a Bubble.
On TV he spoke with a confidence, so assured,
He made the difference between debt, and savings, seem blurred.
The old standbys he quoted, left, right and center,
Like, “It’s different here now.” and “Don’t be a renter.”
A press release he issued, based on reason so scant,
I’m sure it would embarrass, old Immanuel Kant.
A flask of straight Kool-Aid, he finished in one chug;
Declared “Mission Accomplished”, then ranted so smug,
“The Oracle of Omaha has nothing on me,
The California Orifice…Second quarter, you’ll see.”
Then laying his fingers aside of his toes,
Up the lower extremity of his digestive tract, he rose;
He hovered a moment, then to his team gave a whistle,
Then away they all drove like the down of a thistle.
But I could hear him profane, and too frequently announce;
“St. Lereah to all, and to all a Spring Bounce.”
We have a talented poet among us, I see. Excellent work!
Fantastic!!!
Wonderful!!
One for the archives. Nice work!
What has been the effect of the housing bubble/bust on the middle class? One of the California threads sort of went off topic into this subject a few days ago, but it might be interesting to pursue more in depth. Is the middle class doomed to extinction and has the housing bubble helped that process along? The middle class has been priced out of a number of areas due to the high cost of housing. How much of the middle class was duped into homes they couldn’t afford and what is their future now that they face foreclosure? Were middle class construction workers and tradesmen shut out of the building boom by lower cost “undocumented” workers? Why are middle class people ripe to be scammed by “herd” movements? Etc., etc.
Great topic!
Thomas Jefferson predicted it.
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)
3rd president of US (1743 - 1826)
Sunsetbeachguy, I’ve read that quote before and it is powerful. I agree, I’m sick of the control of private bankers. Indeed, the American people need to take the power back. International banking is a cancer.
Americans don’t know how lucky they are to have had thinkers like Jefferson et al at the inception of their history. It is always something to fall back on…
“Americans don’t know how lucky they are to have had thinkers like Jefferson et al at the inception of their history.”
Americans do indeed know how lucky we are to have had men like Jefferson, Adams and Franklin, et. al –that is why they are revered as the Founding Fathers and are quoted so constantly. There are plenty of histories of the American revolution which highlight the character and achievements of the Founding Fathers in counterpoint to the sorry crews that led the French, Russian and Chinese revolutions, for example. You will find them at your public library.
Jefferson must be rolling over in his grave. The Federal Reserve - a PRIVATELY HELD organization - can create money out of thin air, then charge interest on it. The sheer audacity and scope of this flim-flam scheme is breathtaking.
He also belived only land owners should vote and only men and I mean white men!
Restricting voting would cure a lot of current problems. But I guess we know better than Jefferson, Madison et al. (not).
My husband was in construction in the early 80s…..the beginning of his whole new career was when the builder decided he didn’t need health insurance coverage after the ‘87 crash.
After that crash, health insurance was not to be offered again…even when things began to boom again. I think there were probably a lot of “quality” workers that got out then, that knew they were smart enough to make that money and benefits elsewhere.
Good anecdote, CarrieAnn. I am at a loss to understand the “rabid” attitude that exists in business and industry these days, especially toward those with middle class incomes. A relative of mine was out driving with a friend of hers who is a lawyer for a large corporation that has its fingers in many pies, including credit. They passed a postman delivering the mail who looked to be in his fifties. Her friend all of a sudden got all red in the face and angry and practically started shouting about how the postal service could get a younger worker to replace him at less pay, fewer benefits and no pension. Now, this is a fellow who is quite wealthy and owns two homes. The sight of a 50 year old worker making a somewhat decent living sent him into orbit. WTF? You’d think the worker was taking food out of his mouth. I don’t get it.
Here I go, replying to my own post again, but after I wrote that last, the classic Christmas season movie “It’s A Wonderful Life” came to mind. It just struck me how real estate played a major role in the movie, since it pitted George Bailey and his Building and Loan against the nasty banker Mr. Potter, who begrudged the working folks decent housing. Interesting. Wonder what Frank Capra would make of the housing market this Christmas?
Well, old George Bailey would have to make 0% down, no income verification loans to beavis & butt head, as well a sponge bob square pants and alley McBeal.
Last night was my: “a forth day”
palmetto,
Agree with you. Unfortunately, we see the “anti middle class” rants here, as well. It’s the middle class that made this country great. The problem is they got soft and complacent. Bought into the hype that unions were bad and Darwinian capitalism was good. They were fooled into thinking that their $100K income made them “rich” and that they had to beat down those who were below them in order to maintain their status. They think the corporatists are on their side. The future will not be good to them, IMHO.
Why are all the middle class people ripe to be scammed ? Because of “faith”. The vast majority has been “conditioned” by religeon , government , finacial advisors ,and yes realtors. They need to believe in something . just look at the suicide bombers and the promise of the virgins….. now that is faith. Each one of the above groups has always been able to show you they are the good guy and it is really the best for you. It is your duty remember to follow the herd. OH, YEE OF LITTLE FAITH ON THIS BLOG ….REPENT YOU SINNERS..AND COME AND JOIN US RICH FLIPPERS.
Personal financial strategies for the coming year while we watch the meltdown.
Good one.
Three Month T-Bills, Arizona Municipal Bonds, Series I Bonds, Precious Metals (gold and platinum bullion coins), stock index funds with a big chunk in international funds. My bias is toward government securities outside my tax deferred investing. The yield is around 4.5% and I rotate all my maturing T-bills back into more T-bills. It’s better than cash and whips inflation in the long run. Jas Jain clued me in on the merits of T-bills as opposed to passbook savings. I’m thankful for reading his posts.
Lifted from mgnyc’s post on the NYC thread:
my financial strategy for 2007
If you had to share a 20 minute cab ride with one of the BubbleMen (Greenspan, Lereah, Toll, Mozillo, etc.), what would you say?
Where are you hiding your money?
Can you drop me at the next corner, please?
No words just a B!tch-slapping.
I would not get into the cab.
GetStucco, you are my hero.
I would make sure that I ate about 10 White Castle hamburgers before the ride and just let out the juiciest farts you can think of for 20 minutes.
My thoughts exactly!
But isn’t that just creating new bubbles?
i think that can be defined as a “hard landing”
this thread is hysterical
some good ideas for the long weekend
Well, if I happened to get in cab with “Sir Greenspent” I’d have to ask:
“IF Andrea sticks her tongue in your ear would that be considered a fair definition of “Irrational Exuberance?”
Oh yuk, blah, NOOOO…WHYhwy50…why?!!?!!
What an awful visual….
Terrible.
I’m sorry phillygal, too much single malt scotch…it’s the only thought that I could come up with that resembles the repulsive toxic loans and housing debacle that the “economic knight” created.
Andrea Mitchel is very good at her profession
Actually, I have another similar visual but that’s reserved for Ann Coulter. Might cause vomitting today.
“Oh, wow … are you … are you the guy from “Six Feet Under?”
Here’s a topic: Since the boom has gone bust, what happens now? Slow, agonizing decline? Decline that starts out slow and speeds up dramatically? Depression/recession? Debt forgiveness? Regulation or laissez-faire? What would be individual strategies for dealing with the fallout?
What about a list of the 2006 Ben Blog articles that generated the top ten comment hit counts?
Or the monthly top comment getter since the blog has grown considerably since January and it might be fun to see what was important a year ago.
OC-ed — great idea except for the problem, that Ben might or might not have time to filter out, of the long threads that were just bickering, almost always about political parties or politicians. In other words, I think your idea is great if Ben could sift out threads that were heavily posted directly relative to the topic.
The Realtors Game was that you should Always “Buy Now, Now Now at Location, Location Location or be Shutout Forever. Then, “Real Estate NEVER goes DOWN..SUZANNE researched IT! “Buy AS MUCH House as you Can Afford!” Next Game was “You MUST be Pre-Qualified or Pre-Approved” so We and our Sellers Can MILK you DRY. Finally when Bankruptcy and Foreclosure is Threatening because you CAN’T make the Payments, Re-fi or Sell the Moneypit before it CRUSHES you, The SGT. SHULTZ defense of ” I NO NOTHING !”
Year-end topic suggestion: Best Anecdotal Evidence of the BUBBLE BURST. Sent you my submission via email.
Good one!
How about predictions of what next year brings? 2007
My predictions
1) recession
2) home prices down 20%
3) FED easing mid year
4) dollar down 10%-20% against EURO
5) Stock market down 20%
1) Soft Landing
2) Home Prices down 20%
3) Fed easing mid year
4) Dollar flat, Oil up
5) US Equities up 20%
Fed easing = up market
“Fed easing = up market”
Hah! Anything as widely anticipated as helicopter drops at the first sign of weakness is already priced in, and hence will not be a factor.
How about predictions of what next year brings? 2007
Micheal Jackson becomes pregnant in Dubai
If he travels. I think he’s in Bahrain.
I believe he’s in Ireland, now.
How about predictions of what next year brings? 2007
Michael Jackson becomes pregnant in Dubai
one serious topic, what can be done in mortgage law, property tax and insurance to prevent this kind of bubble from happening again
one fun topic, what punishment “a la inferno” would you desire for realtors/mortgage brokers?????
tax the rich more. money just makes them more powerful, enough to distort the system to their own interest only.
tax the Hispanics more. money just makes them more powerful, enough to distort the system to their own interest only.
How does that feel? What is good for the goose, etc.
Slightly off topic, and thinking out loud: I just do not understand where those tremendous WS earnings are coming from, which cause all those record bonuses???
If you don’t understand where they are coming from, there is some chance that they are coming from your and my pockets…
“There’s a patsy in every game and if you don’t know who it is, it’s you.”
The Amish finally dug up their coffee cans and open a Scott trade account via the local library.
Posters of note.
How about which posters most accurately predicted the outcome of 2006?
I found something the other day, a bit off topic. Property tax breaks for the rich and well connected.
A couple days ago, in Steve Blow’s column in the Dallas Morning News, he took note of the most expensive house for sale in Dallas - Larry Lacerte was putting his 9-acre 32k sq ft 6-10-16 place (built around 94) on Park Ln (univ park) up for sale, asking a simple $45 Million. (I know it’s a bit below txchic’s standards for Dallas, but bear with me ;P ) Steve bothered to look it up online with the apprasial district and noticed it was appraised at only $16M for taxes, a 60+% break given that appraisals are supposed to be ‘at market value’.
He then went on, looking up every house on the market at $6M+. Of 21 found, only 1 (one) had a tax valuation remotely close to the price being asked. 60%+ discounts on tax valuation were closer to the norm.
Now, there are probably some good reasons for the disconnect on the high end, and there is supposed to be an annual cap on increases for homesteaded residences (which isn’t always honored by the tax man as I’ve found out). That’s the end of the article, but I have heard over the years whispers of special tax breaks for other with money or connections. Maybe I’m wearing a tinfoil hat, but I’d did some poking around online a couple years ago and noticed that the (now previous) mayor of my town had some unusual/unknown exemption code(s) listed on his tax records, and a tax bill that was awful tiny. Other things I recall include very incorrect data about the homes of people on/close to Dallas city councel. (like forgetting about a few thousand sq ft. of improvements to the original tiny shack)
I’d be curious to know of other examples of taxing disconnect people know of, or if being a high ranking member of a local government can come with special breaks.
To mis-quote Leona Helmsly - only the little people in Texas pay property taxes.
My former boss lived in a gated community in Valley Ranch and every year they would band together and hire an attorney to prevent any increase in property taxes. A highly success full strategy.
Compare that with a friend whose mother passed away and inherited her house. Within 60 days when the tax assessment from the city has already taken away the 65+ exemption.
Of course, President Bush has them all beat with his Recreational Tax Exemption for his property.
Skip,
” President Bush has them all beat with his Recreational Tax Exemption for his property.”
Is this something specific to Texas or to Crawford? Can you or any Texan explain further? Thanks.
U . . . F. .. B
I didn’t see that and I didn’t know that place was for sale. It will take its place in the Dallas Hall of Shame of conspicuous white elephants that took years to sell, along with the Romero place in Frisco (which was super cool but I think was listed at 20M and sold at 5-6M), the Jinger Heath place and that other one that looked like a replica of the White House that mysteriously burned down after the owner ran out of money to finish it.
The tax bill on the builder’s home that just sold in my town (the $700k+ one bought by the NJ couple as a first home) had a suspiciously low tax bill. Neighbors were not happy.
Is Gary Watts in hiding on a remote island somewhere, or in South America?
It must have been a year or so ago when we had an extensive discussion about whether land prices would drop further than housing prices in the bust. I must have argued about fifty different times that land prices are positively correlated with housing prices, and with a very high beta. If you go from owning land to owning call options to buy the land, the correlation picture is similar, but beta is still higher. I still believe there are more shoes to drop on HB balance sheets, due to still-unreported damage to the inventory item, which reflects land holdings.
Well anyway, it seems the MSM is finally onto the story. On p. W10 of today’s WSJ, you will find a very enlightening piece by June Fletcher, one of my favorite chroniclers of the bubble’s demise (I include an excerpt below; my personal comments are added in parentheses):
Land’s Slippery Slope
Prices of Residential Lots Fall More Than Those of Homes; No Room for Wolfhounds
…
The market is equally difficult for developers, farmers and others who sell large tracts to builders. Many of these builders are wiggling out of options to buy land and shedding lots by the thousands. Horsham, Pa.-based Toll Brothers, for instance, trimmed its land position by 6,500 lots in the fiscal third quarter over the previous quarter, a decline of 19%, and projects that it will shed an additional 10,000 lots in the year ahead (a projected further decline of 36 percent off the current level*! Since Toll is already “dancing on the bottom,” I am a bit surprised they are not snapping up land at currently discounted prices in anticipation of the predicted resumption of the boom next year…). These tracts, generally too big to be of use to anyone but a large builder, are rarely sold off piecemeal and don’t directly affect prices of infill lots (though my guess is that infill lots don’t typically skyrocket in price during periods when homebuilders are dumping large tracts onto the land market).
In slumping markets, brokers say, land sellers may not be able to do much to make their listings more attractive to buyers, other than to cut prices, offer owner financing and closing cost help, and make sure engineering studies, permits and utilities are in order. Still, carrying costs for land tend to be much lower than they are for houses, since there are no utilities to pay, driveways to shovel or faucets to fix, although there are taxes to pay. So unless there’s some compelling reason to sell, lot owners are often in a better position to weather a down market. “You can just sit on it,” says Naples real-estate agent Eydie Heller. (Given that a soft landing is in the bag for next year, I wonder what Toll’s compelling reason is for planning to unload another 36% of their land holdings off their already-reduced stockpile???)
——————————————————————————-
* Inventory reduction maths:
6,500 = 0.19 * (base level of land holdings), so
base level of land holdings = 6,500/0.19 = 34,211 lots
reduced level of land holdings = (1-0.19) X 34,211 = 27,711 lots
next year’s planned liquidation = (10,000 / 27,711) X 100% = 36% more
What countries outside America should someone consider for living? I have enough money to buy a house, but am so disgusted by the current situation in America that I don’t want to buy here, in the foreseeable future. Canada is the obvious choice because of proximity and similarity. I vacationed in a pleasant small city in Brazil a few years ago, and the people of Thailand were quite friendly when I spent some time there, pre-tsunami. So if you didn’t have to work full-time…where would you go?
NZ
AU
Deutschland
Could you elaborate reasons? thanks
read something about the making of lord of the rings, and how a lot of the geeks who stayed behind after the project was finished.
New Zealand is a paradise, and anybody who has spent a bit of time down there, can see it with their own eyes and the film crews would have had ample time to see for themselves…
Once the real estate bubble there goes away, (no different than here, prices up 300% vs 10 years ago) my wife and I are looking to buy a small place somewhere in a little mountain town in the Southern Alps of the South Island.
New Zealanders are in my opinion, the friendliest people i’ve ever met and crime is laughable, compared to here in the states.
Anytime from now to late February is a great time to be there. Their summer is just starting in earnest, now.
Best first check the taxes in these places, whether on property, income or other assets. Also check details of permanent residence. Thailand, for example, requires you to leave the country every 90 or 180 days, as I recall — not a deal-killer, necessarily, but a nuisance unless you live close to a border.
Just remember the local per capita GDP in NZ is nothing like the US. Some folks from my school finished up in NZ, and at a reunion a few years back several commented about the difference even between NZ and Australia.
If you’re thinking of coming to Australia itself, it gets a lot harder after 45.
We wouldn’t be buying a place there to live full-time, just chasing the perenial summer, that’s all.
We like NZ for reasons altogether different from income. It feels to us, like stepping back into the 1960’s, life as we remember it, simpler, friendlier, a lost innocence we can reclaim, with just a 13 hour plane trip from L.A.
I’m strongly considering South America. If one can handle the security concerns, there are good jobs to be had. The search is on….
Darfur!
I’m trying to move to Canada right now. The coasts have reasonable winters, and I like their more laid-back approach to things. Vancouver is my favorite, but unfortunately everyone wants to live there so it is rather overpriced… at the moment.
Well, missed the conversation yesterday regarding PV and the SoBay. I have lived in PV my entire life, with the exception of a two year stint in LB late 80’s so I guess I am a bit biased but l am NO RE bull. Quite to the contrary I stumbled upon this blog in search of some info that might validate my gut feelings. I took a beating in Long Beach on a house I bought with my brand new wife which left me with a lesson that I will never forget. I use to joke that I was the only one who has lost money owning CA RE. That being said I rebounded in early 94′ purchasing a home in PV that was 30% below what the owner had paid. He was transferred and had no choice but to sell… he was fking pissed… no buyers at that time with cash, I was low bidder but others had offers contingent on sale of their current home. At that time, even though the market was in the tank, there was little to no inventory which started my entire stance with Sunset about certain areas holding there values more due to the “special” nature of there location. Even with the market tanking around SoCal you’re not going to find many homes to choose from in my neighborhood. Now, you can plop down 3+ mil for some spec home or a relatively new custom home that are also coming available for resale but they are all 2.5m+. Do I think this nucking futz?? Kinda sorta but if you got the jack , why not? The entire SoBay beach communities (PV, Redondo, Hermosa & Manhatten) I would stack up against any place in the world. Does that mean their immune? Hell no. I sit in silence waiting for the shit to hit the fan because it’s the nature of the beast.
Everyone should have some cash ready to take advantage. No whinners!
“Even with the market tanking around SoCal you’re not going to find many homes to choose from in my neighborhood.”
In due time. And BTW, what is a whinner?
I get the distinct impression that some on this blog just love to bash. For the first time buyers that really want to purchase a home, your time will come, but you must be ready.
In due time? Frankly, GS, your a wind bag. Honestly, I think you need to step back a bit and question why the hell you post so much. I mean sheeesh! Take a rest…
Give it a rest yourself, PV Tom. We might have to soon add you to the Gelded Bull Hall of Infamy.
Those of us in San Diego are very happy to have GS’s comments! Please keep up the good work!
pv
This is my blog and GS can post as much as he wants.
“Unleash the hounds!”
“…what is a whinner?”
It’s someone who pockets $1,000 from a slot machine and complains that it isn’t enough.
LOL!
We have had occasional debates about whether the high end or the low end would lead the market down. I have argued and still maintain that the top end will lead (just like last time), as it is more expensive in terms of negative equity to own a high end home when prices are moving against you — the exact opposite of the rationale for buying the biggest, most expensive home you can fit into your severely-stretched and leveraged household budget when prices are rapidly escalating.
Yesterday’s CAR price report had some great evidence on this subject, with some reported double-digit YOY median price declines in some tony CA zip codes.
P. W10 of today’s WSJ has further evidence for the rest of the nation in their Elite Home Index. YOY (”year to date”) median changes for high price areas with sizable price declines include the following:
Mountain Lakes, NJ (07046) -7.6%
Old Westbury, NY (11568) -7.6%
Glencoe, Ill. (60022) -16.9%
Los Angeles (90077) -18.9%
Menlo Park, CA (94024) -20.8%
Data source: First American RES (When can we look forward to the updated version of “Has the Fire Burned Out?”)
Unless this time is different, the tsunami wake from the high end will ultimately drag prices down in lower end and outlying markets.
GS,
Master communities on the outskirts of LA and SD have been down for quite some time now. I think this is old news. I would consider these non ‘tony’ areas and evidence that new contruction is what started it all…
Dear Ben:
A suggestion for year end topic – best anecdotal evidence of the BUBBLE BURST. Here’s my submission.
I’ve been waiting to post this blog until I had all the facts. And well, quite frankly, this story merits more than the usual hit-and-run. A little background:
I came upon your blog this past summer. We had sold our home in Ojai (93023) the previous year (closed last day of August ‘05) and were returning to the neighborhood for my niece’s graduation. That very week the local newspaper was reporting that housing prices had peaked in July 2005, and the median was down something ridiculous like 0.6%.
Low and behold, the neighborhood troublemaker had put his house on the market. Gonna have to check the Internet, see how much he wants for it. Well, let’s see, we sold for $662,500 so, if prices are down he should be asking…
$550,000, WHAT!?!
And one down the street is asking $530,000 and, OH NO… our friends up the street that added a second story and a pool are now selling, huh, trying to sell for $835,000.
We tried to tell them. Now is the time to get out! But everyone was giddy with a champagne high over their ever increasing “net worth.” Prices were just insane and the inventory marginal (paper the garage and put a box in the corner because you can get $50K for a 4th bedroom.) We were going to open houses to scope out the competition and we could see that buyers were starting to baulk.
I knew this bubble was going to burst. I had a front row seat to bubble central while working at the Santa Barbara News-Press (prior to its implosion). Big news here was when the SFH median price went to $1,000,000 in June 2004. Want to know what the median-priced home in SB County looks like? Standard California stucco 3-bedroom POS with a one-car garage. ONE MILLION DOLLARS, please.
Back then I just didn’t realize the national magnitude of the bubble because, well, it’s different here. All those No-Growth policies are monkeying with the supply and demand. And the developments in Oxnard and Santa Maria are just supplying the pent-up demand from their neighboring cities. Would you like some ice with that Kool-Aide?
I guess I should say I had an inkling. I attended my high school reunion the week after the series ran (right in your neck of the woods Ben – our “senior ditch day” was at Red Rock Crossing, before they developed it and you could get across the creek there). Everyone was buzzing about how their homes had increased in value, but not like in California. Funny thing, it was almost more distressing, felt like a prisoner because you would have to leave the area if you ever sold, new tax base would drive you out (we eventually moved because there are very few rentals in Ojai).
I visited my sister in Prescott. Workers were expanding the highway to four lanes and clearing the land in anticipation for a HUGE development in the valley. I jokingly asked her if Purina was opening a new dog food factory or something. Who were they building these homes for? No, no new employer, these were going to be sold to retirees from California. Where have I heard that before?
Back to present day. I was just about to post this anecdotal evidence that prices were way down and the median wasn’t telling the entire story, blah, blah, and decided to check and see if they had lowered the price any further. Oh, the house is in contingency. I will just hold off and report what they actually sold for. Drum roll please…
$520,000 gulp.
That’s a 21.5% drop in less than 15 MONTHS!!!!
917 Sunset Place sold 8/31/05 $662,500
1001 Sunset Place sold 11/21/06 $520,000
801 Sunset Place now listed for $519,000
1006 Sunset Place now listed for $785,000
OK, we may be comparing bruised apple to perfect specimen, but in 1955 these houses were exactly the same.
Arn’t they closing schools in Ojai because there are less kids now?
gee I wonder why………
Considering the “potential fallout” that many here predict….a great discussion could go like this….your just been assigned the most powerful position in the United States, your decisions will become effective immediately - would you lower/raise rates (reasons why) would you challenge China on its trade imbalance (and possible outcomes to decision)Would you bail out homeowners or let them hang out in the wind….the list goes on. Many here have some serious views and would make for a awesome discussions/debate…I am eager to see a few in here challenge the views of others…
Raise interest rates to: 17.211 % for a 30 year fixed loan
Which would cause Ben to have a mid-life crisis and my 4 year old son Cole to see something besides that back of my head while I sit at the computer reading this blog. Moreover, it would put to an end… the question about who can afford a house based on their income among other things.
Disband the “Federal Reserve”, bring all the troops back home, and go back on the gold standard at whatever gold price it would take to pay off all the outstanding “Federal Reserve Notes”. These steps would make the rest of the issues fade into the background.
Raise FFR to 6%. Announce that we will be major inflation hawks, and that the “govt numbers” will correlate with what REAL people see in REAL life. No more hedonics, substitutions, “core” rates, etc. Housing (50/50 mortgage/rent), healthcare, education, food, water, & utilities will the the primary costs factored in the new CPI numbers.
Stop printing money (seriously, I think they are actually printing money — forget what the “experts” say).
Force ALL financial transactions to be perfectly transparent. From CEO pay to janitor pay, from the MBS market to derivatives to hedge funds, from coroporate balance sheets to what the institutional traders are buying/selling (and how/for what). No smoothing, no loopholes, no nothing. Just give us real numbers, and make it freely available to the public.
Fine anyone with a licence (RE broker, mortgage broker, stock broker, etc.) who knowingly lies or tries to conceal the truth if the truth is relevant to those in his/her audience. Take away the licence of those who violate the “honesty” law more than three times in a 10-year period.
Create a maximum pay ratio of 100:1 for the top and bottom positions of publicly-held companies (CEO & janitor, for instance) — including all bonuses, options and compensation packages.
Give corporate tax credits for any amount spent on R&D (up to a 90% credit).
Make up for this by enacting fees (point system) for pollution, OSHA violations, etc. Also enact an income tax system where ALL income is taxed the same (no break for capital gains), AND eliminate all deductions & loopholes for income tax — across the board. However, this tax would be progressive where, in a 5-tier system, the top pays 50%, the next 40%, the next 30%, then 20%. The bottom 10% pay no income tax.
Strengthen the middle class by re-energizing the unions. Give incentives to those who improve efficiency and develop new ideas. Bring back skilled tradespeople who might have cost more, but created a better product.
Create a two-tier national healthcare system (basic care is covered by the govt, but one can always pay for private insurance to boost benefits). Create a national lab (like NCI/NIH) to develop new medicines *that the people need* instead of what is most profitable for pharmacy/drug companies. The goal of all drugs should be to CURE, not treat. This could also be combined with the FDA.
Govt regulation and/or ownership of all necessary goods/services (infrastructure, water, food, banking, healthcare, etc.) to avoid monopolization and control by for-profit companies.
Too much!
Oops, passionate moment made me forget: Let the FBs twist in the wind, and the mortgage lenders with them. No bailouts for anyone. Fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
A discussion of posters who have skipped the materialist Christmas rituals this year.
Myself and many others I know have decided not to buy gifts, decorate, or do anything out of the ordinary. What effect will this have on the economy? It has certainly helped my pocketbook but everytime I’m at WalMart, people are stacked 20 deep at the registers. I took whatever money I would have used for decorations and gifts and donated it to the ‘giving tree’ instead.
Who else has shunned the holidays this year?
Moman…with you in the same boat…however - wife and I put $25 each month away in a jar (yes-cash) and by Christmas we have $300 and that is meant for EVERYONE on our list….no debts to rack up..and it helps us make serious informed decisions…it actually makes shopping fun once again…my sister’s best friend for as long as I have know her racks up Credit Card debts that she is only able to pay off by July….(and she does this every year for sh$tsake)…this pending economic fallout may bring back the true value that stood for Christmas in the first place…family,friends and mankind!!
Christmas at our home this year - only the children (6, 5 and 3) are getting gifts this year. 6 Adults and no official* gift giving between them.
* Husbands are still probably obligated to quietly give the ladies a small gift.
Bah humbug!
“Consumers account for 2/3 of the GDP”
If the economy tanks…you will have contributed to the suffering.
Please go to: http://www.cashcall.com, get a loan and freely dispense to the “trickle down” economy.
Please note this statement: “I took whatever money I would have used for decorations and gifts and donated it to the ‘giving tree’ instead.”
I’m still spending a similar amount just in a different format. I am not buying my parents ANYTHING, and I’m not buying my friends/family stuff that will wind up in the spring yard sale. I spent the money on donations to charity. Plus I told friends/family not to get me christmas gifts - I still have gifts in the closet from years ago that I never used and don’t need.
And if the economy tanks, I’ll be in a better position to not have an extra $3,000 in credit card debt like many people I know.
I don’t see the reason to boycott Christmas altogether; it’s a fun holiday and you can enjoy it by simply scaling back your spending but still spending time with friends and family.
My wife and I have a tree (artificial) and minimal lights, and that’s about it for decorations. We spent about $40 on gifts for our parents, and bought $20 gift certificates for my nieces. We don’t exchange gifts with friends.
We spent about $1,000 total on gifts for each other, but those gifts are things we’ve wanted to buy for a long time but put off until recent sales (20-40% off) made them too good to pass up. Cash, of course.
We’ll also make a donation to the SPCA as well.
i bought a great looking artificial tree 4 yrs ago for $250, it will last me another 10 yrs probably. a great buy, esp. considering people are paying $100 for fire hazard trees that aren’t prelit.
I have scaled way back. Only a few gifts, mostly for the kids, and even went light on decorating. Half of the snail mail cards this year and created an ecard for those I can reach by email. It actually feels good to be less burdened by doing and spending too much. I may actually get to enjoy this Christmas.
I’m going to visit my parents. And, since I’m fairly handy, I’m going to repair and maintain my way through their household Honey-Do list.
AZ Slim,
Thank you…it’s beginning to feel alot like Christmas.
My wife and I grew sick of the gift giving extravaganza that went on between family members (3 hour long gift opening session, gifts not really wanted, coming and going, and the pressures of buying the “right” gifts) and last year we told everybody we were done, except for kids. We don’t want any gifts, aren’t giving any.
We donated $500.00 to the Pakistan earthquake survivors fund, in lieu of gifts, this year.
They always say “This is the retailers make or break season”…
Are they just rather inept businessmen, the other 11 months of the year?
Glad to not be a contributor, to the madness~
I gave 8 cat dental cleanings, 3 dog dental cleanings, and 1 cat spay to the pets of the adult relatives. That covered all but 2 adults and my mom. I gave the other 2 adults a 1 year library card to the library system in the next county since our library is too small to be useful. I gave my mom a visit from me and my niece, and we brought my mom’s newest great-grandchild age 2 who she had never seen. I gave all the other kids except the babies books on how to manage their allowance. The babies got picture books about dogs.
I have already received one dog spay/neuter in my name given to SNAP http://www.snap123.org (Springfield, MO Spay and Neuter Assistance Program). I asked everyone not to give me a gift but rather to make a donation to SNAP.
Direction of Interest Rates in 20007.
I do not understand why the Fed and the media expectations seem to point to lower interest rates next year–particularly since we are still at a relatively low interest rate. And inflation is still higher than desired. To me, lowering the rate should not even be on the table. The discussion should center on whether rates should be increased.
Is it because RE is not taken into account for CPI inflation numbers? Or is this a move to soften what could be a horrendous RE crash next year?
And, if rates are lowered. What does this do to next years market?
Good topic, in that we could all “place our bets” and give our reasons why. It’s not new, but a periodic refresher is interesting, IMO.
I would like to see a post on how to say NO in a polite way. I don’t like to be mean spirited or unkind, but I don’t like to be played as a sucker. How do you say:
NO to your sister and Brother in Law who will ask you for a “loan” and live in a McMansion.
NO to people you know in business who will want more credit or longer terms.
No to your friends who know you have some $ saved away and need your help with their ______ (house, car, credit card etc.) payment.
In short how are you going to say NO to uninformed who you tried to warn?
“That’s what banks are for.” followed up with a “Good luck.”
It’s all tied up in “X”-year CDs.
I use that one too, Chip. “All our money is tied up on long-term investments, sorry.”
A possible topic is about bears . Is a bear born a bear ,are you always a bear your whole life . Do bears always see the glass half empty ? Do bears always marry bulls ? Do bears always expect the axe to fall ?
What a fun topic! Here’s my answer:
Born a bear (Scottish); married a bull, who converted. I cannot take credit for the conversion, though. Age and experience did the work for me.
Oh, Peggy, can I relate to you on the Scottish Bearishness! I got that one with both barrels. (Thanks, Mom. Thanks, Dad.)
Yes, thrift is hardwired into our DNA.
Interesting topic, Wiz. Not sure I know.
Ben, take the holiday off and enjoy the time with loved ones. Most of us bloggers will certainly be doing that.
Happy holidays to all.
Not much comment on NJ. Maybe I can change that.
Update on NJ.
Update from NJ:
LOL. That was mean.
My first post. Hopefully I can add something to this great blog:
In the summer my wife and I rented a house in a fairly new development in a decent town in NNJ, North Haledon. Wife wanted us to buy because we are hoping to have kids soon, I said let’s rent for a least a year and see what happens. So, it turns out this is flipper heaven. On the main road in this development there are the following, virtually identical, townhouses for sale:
43 Magnolia - $515,000
21 Magnolia - $525,000
81 Magnolia - $550,000
4 Magnolia - $579,000
54 Magnolia - $599,000
48 Magnolia - $629,000
26 Magnolia - $639,000
Of course, nothing is moving and hasn’t for months. This are very modest townhouses - not bad, comfortable but nothing more.
Three other houses on this street are also for rent. This is just one innocuous street in an ordinary NJ town. My landlord is 24 years old and “owns” four houses in this development (no, his name isn’t Casey!).
This is a microcosim of the NJ story. I can’t understand why NJ is not talked about more on this blog. NJ is quite simply unbelievable to anyone who has any basic understanding of economics.
Additionally, I happen to work for a large IB in NYC in the MBS business. If anyone is interested, I can write more about this in the future, but let me say that the amount of Kool-aid being consumed here are we close the books on this year and look to 2007 is quite astonishing.
Good post. So what is the average monthly cost to rent these places? We want to figure the rent to own ratio.
Chris
“I happen to work for a large IB in NYC in the MBS business. If anyone is interested, I can write more about this in the future, but let me say that the amount of Kool-aid being consumed here are we close the books on this year and look to 2007 is quite astonishing.”
Please, expand on this topic,thanks.
Amen to that.
We used to get some NYC IB insights from a poster called Zephyr, but (s)he was very careful to stick to factual matters, and in fact doesn’t seem to have posted much recently.
I think a lot of people who read this blog (myself included) would be fascinated to get any sort of ‘view from the MBS trenches’.
I think a lot of people who read this blog (myself included) would be fascinated to get any sort of ‘view from the MBS trenches’.
———————-
Absolutely!!!
Hornet — “Grim,” who has been around a long time and has posted here from the beginning, as I recall, though less frequently in recent times, has his own excellent NJ blog at:
http://njrereport.com/
Hi Ben and other users,
Thank you for this site. It is very good.
Let us discuss the investments options in the case of prolonged housing decline -> Recession -> Depression, etc. I am not forecasting or wishing any of this.
But as breadwinners and protectors for our families, we have the responsibilities to think about all the possibilities.
Thanks
Goven
2 from Y. win ethics contest
By Jeremy Twitchell
Deseret Morning News
PROVO — When you’re visiting family this season and talking among yourselves, here’s a topic: Is it ethically acceptable to offer mortgages to illegal immigrants?
It’s the subject of bitter political battles and ongoing debate within the banking industry. And while it’s most likely to be a total conversation killer in most circles, a pair of Brigham Young University students recently won an international competition by taking the question to task.
Philip Arias and Sarah McMullin, a pair of undergraduates at BYU’s Marriott School of Management, took home first place from the Eller College of Management’s 2006 International Ethics Case Competition, hosted by the University of Arizona. The two were selected to represent BYU from roughly a dozen students who applied.
The BYU team beat 20 other teams from top business schools in the United States, China, Canada and Mexico, all given the same difficult topic to struggle with.
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,650217017,00.html