“Buyers Are Betting Prices Will Decline” In New York
Newsday reports from New York. “Well, the sky isn’t falling, but local real-estate market conditions remain mostly cloudy, for sellers at least, according to housing data released yesterday.”
“The latest data was more confirmation that the long run of double-digit price increases on Long Island had ended. The price slowdown has proved challenging for real estate agents. ‘It’s been kind of like a roller coaster,’ said Rosie West, an associate broker in Freeport. ‘The sellers, or some of them, are still in last summer’s prices, whereas the buyers are in this season’s prices.’”
“Potential buyers are holding out, betting that prices will decline, she said. One big result is that the ‘really over-priced’ homes are ‘coming into reality,’ West said.”
“As another measure of the market’s slowdown, the increase in residential housing inventory, rose to 13,313 homes in Suffolk from 9,847 a year ago. In Nassau the number of houses on the market jumped to 9,457, from 6,786. In Queens, the number spiked to 9,170 from 7,024.”
“That higher inventory has increased the amount of time it would take to sell all the houses on the market. It would now take 12.9 months in Suffolk, compared with 9.4 a year ago. In Nassau, the figure rose to 11 months from 8.5. In Queens, the number rose to 12.5 months from 10.8.”
“Also telling are the median prices for houses in contract, a number that indicates the latest overall housing prices. That value slipped in Suffolk by 1.0 percent to $395,000 from $399,000 a year ago. In Nassau, it declined by 2.1 percent to $465,000 from $475,00.”
The New York Daily News. “As the city’s once-booming real estate market cools, many Bronx homeowners are starting to feel the heat. The number of ‘lis pendens’ actions filed in the Bronx, an indication of upcoming foreclosures, has risen 21% in the first 10 months of this year over last, according to the latest mortgage statistics.”
“‘It’s ugly out there,’ said Sarah Ludwig, director of the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project.”
“Ludwig blamed a range of scams and unscrupulous lending practices, from ‘interest only’ mortgages to ‘one-stop’ real estate brokers, for the rash of lis pendens filings.”
“‘A major factor is the resetting of adjustable-rate mortgages,’ said Ludwig. ‘Lots of people are seeing their payments go up by hundreds of dollars a month.’”
“In areas like Throgs Neck and Middletown, the main culprit is the recent trend of refinancing, where most often elderly homeowners take out new loans to make home repairs but fall victim to hidden fees and rate hikes.”
“Manhattan saw a drop as striking as the Bronx’s rise, with 17% fewer lis pendens filings this year, attributable to the island’s hot real estate market making it easier for distressed owners to sell, said Robert Ugorets, who runs a foreclosure-tracking Web site. ‘If you got into trouble in that market,’ said Ugorets, ‘you could just get out.’”
“But in the Bronx, where most mortgage-holders are homeowners rather than speculators, getting out from under an impending foreclosure isn’t so easy.”
‘Advocates for more pro-growth policies in New York will get new ammunition today with the release of a report from the U.S. Census Bureau showing that the Empire State was one of only a handful of states that lost population this year, with thousands of people moving away to other parts of America and not being replaced by new residents. The state lost more than 9,500 people between July 2005 and July 2006.’
‘For those convinced New Jersey does not get the respect it deserves, the latest census news is a dagger to the heart: for the first time, it has fallen from the list of the 10 most populous states. What’s more, about 72,000 New Jerseyans actually left for other states, an exodus that puts the New Jersey fourth in a select group of the scorned. Louisiana, California and New York were the other states that lost the most residents, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday.’
‘Population growth in Massachusetts was essentially flat last year, according to new US Census data that shows a continuing pattern of stagnation that many fear threatens the state’s economic and social prospects. Nearly 50,000 people left Massachusetts over the past year.’
‘This is happening all over the East Coast. I think there’s a housing affordability gap between these places and other parts of the country,’ said William Frey , a demographer at the Brookings Institute. He said that as people leave, housing prices should come down and attract people to Massachusetts.’
“Buyers Are Betting Prices Will Decline”
No. I’m just betting that prices will not rise more than 6.5% a year (5% rate on a CD plus 1.5% property tax/insurance I’m not paying) minus my paltry rent payment.
Problem is, many New Yorkers (including me) are paying $4 grand a month in rent, so that adds up to a significant gamble that a condo or co-op will not appreciate. So far, it has been a losing gamble in Manhattan, because prices have gone either up or sideways, depending on neighborhood. I’m still betting that as a renter I will come out ahead over the next 4 years or so, but let’s just say that outcome is still in doubt.
I figure I could buy a place similar to what I’m renting now and make a monthly payment of $6 grand, including maintainance but adjusted for taxes. That’s $2 grand more than I’m paying in rent (until they jack the rent up further). So renting I lose $48k a year, and if I “owned” it I’d be losing around $68 per year if prices stay absolutely flat (given that I’d be paying a little principal). So if prices go up even 2% a year, I’m losing out (even when you take into account the 2.5% I’m earning (after-tax) on a few hundred grand I have in savings).
As I said, I’m betting that there will be significant declines over the next 4 years, but if prices here do what most bears are predicting, i.e. lose ground to inflation but stay flat in nominal terms, we renters are getting burned even throughout the downturn, and then burned some more when the cycle eventually turns upward.
This is why many bearish people I know are still looking to buy, but at a price they deem to be a 10% discount. That way, they figure, even a modest nominal slide over the next few years won’t hurt them. Of course, they are assuming there won’t be a 30% decline, and I’m not - thus my continuing tenant status.
The value estimate of $788,257. is for property taxes. I think the house was homesteaded which like prop 13 tends to limit the upside appraisal for tax purposes over the years. I think its around 3% a year.
The zillow.com estimate for 1430 Crayton Rd., Naples, 34102 is $1,093,047. This is $200,000. higher then the “valuation” generated by property tax rolls.
Bottom line prices have fallen from a little under 40%. $1,093,000. to $660,000. It is worse for the owner since the actual purchase was $600,000. with a $60,000. sales commission generating the quoted sale price of $660,000.
If you purchased this property last year at the zillow.com estimate last year you would have paid $1,093,000. You would have recieved $600,000. due to this sale. That is a decline of 45%. That is a hell of a lot worse then the article implies with a sale quoted at $660,000. and the phony tax roll estimate of only $788,257.
“The sellers, or some of them, are still in last summer’s prices, whereas the buyers are in this season’s prices.’”
And what buyers would they be Rosy?
“As another measure of the market’s slowdown, the increase in residential housing inventory, rose to 13,313 homes in Suffolk from 9,847 a year ago. In Nassau the number of houses on the market jumped to 9,457, from 6,786. In Queens, the number spiked to 9,170 from 7,024.”
The available inventory is up about 25% to 30% YOY, the number of buyers are down, and this is the “off season”. Hmmm, I can’t wait until the spring selling season. No rebound that I can see.
Roidy
I can now say that I have seen the dumbest thing so far in this housing mania. I had a chance to go to Riverdale the other day. Riverdale is a part of the Bronx even though they won’t admit it. The condo glut taking place in Riverdale was overwhelming. I took the bus from the Spuyten-Duyvil train station to West 235th St. I just couldn’t believe what I was seeing. There are condos going up everywhere. The minimum cost is $600,000 and ranges to $4 million or more.
Riverdale is a pretty wealthy Jewish area. That is probably why all the developers thought “their” project would be a huge hit. They didn’t realize that 15 other developers had the same brainstorm.
Rumor has it that Carlos Beltran (NY Mets) and Derek Jeter have bought in the area. Jeter bought the penthouse of one of the buildings for his parents for $4 million. It’s good to know he loved them enough to lose about $3 million on a condo for them.
The glut in places like Riverdale, Brooklyn, Queens and Jersey City will have to take a toll on Manhattan. If you can pay 35 - 50% for the same condo found in Manhattan, by just crossing a river then it will be very difficult for Manhattan to retain its ridiculous premium. Condos for all. Common sense for none!
A change in tax policy may induce NYC builders to keep building even as a bust unfolds. See
http://thepoliticker.observer.com/2006/12/everybody-wins.html
and
http://thepoliticker.observer.com/2006/12/the-benefits-of-a-bust.html
“basically Manhattan between Houston and 96th Street, except for the East Village.”
I would love to know how they came up with that equation. That leaves out anything south of Houston. That includes Soho, Tribeca, China Town, the Financial District.
I say glut the entire city. Bring down the prices. Let’s see the smug looks after that happens.
‘New York is the most expensive state in which to close a mortgage, with costs totaling $3,887, on average. Connecticut is sixth nationally, at $3,284, while New Jersey is 14th, at $3,158. Because New York is one of a handful of states that require buyers, sellers and banks to hire lawyers for mortgage settlements, New York City feels the sting of high closing costs more than the rest of the state. ‘I know attorneys in western New York who’ll represent you for $500, while on the other end of the state it’s a discount if it’s $1,000,’ said Greg Krauza, president of the New York Mortgage Brokers Association.’
‘Krauza contends that lawyers offer critical protection for borrowers during the closing process. But, he said, banks and title companies do not necessarily need the same service, because they already have considerable professional expertise. ‘That’s a big part of what’s driving the cost up,’ Krauza said.’
‘For New Jersey’s most affluent homeowners, one significant closing cost has risen, however, thanks to the so-called “mansion tax” enacted by the state last year. With that, buyers pay 1 percent of the total purchase price on houses that sell for $1 million or more. ‘Especially during the boom in 2003, 2004 and part of 2005,’ Lehnes said, ‘we saw houses that had been selling for $800,000 go up over the $1 million level. So for those people, that can be an added expense.’
“In New York City, borrowers pay 2.05 percent on mortgages of less than $500,000 and 2.175 percent on those above that amount.”
That’s the Mortgage Recording tax — and they may not have the whole thing, since there is a city, state, and transit district component. Sellers pay an even larger real estate transfer tax, bringing the total to something like 5%-6% of the purchase price.
Then you get the broker hit of 6%.
Then you pay for your lawyer, the seller’s lawyer, the bank’s lawyer (you heard me right), the title company, the title tip (you heard me right, and you’d better pay it or the deed never gets recorded), the survey (for a rectangular house on a rectangular lot that is unchanged since 1915), etc. etc. etc.
As a lawyer I hate to say this, but NY State’s requirement is ridiculous. You don’t need a lawyer to handle a residential real estate closing. Residential RE closings are idiot work, a trained monkey can do them.
Yes, the purchase of a house is the most important financial decision most people will ever make. Yes, a mistake could potentially cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to correct.
But the fact remains that a real estate closing requires nothing but simple clerical work that anyone can perform. You fill out a bunch of forms and wire some money into an escrow account. There is really no way to screw it up unless you forget to calculate the buyer’s allowance for the current year’s property taxes or something like that. And if you simply make a checklist of each step of the closing process, you won’t forget anything. And I have never figured out a way to cheat anyone in a residential RE closing. It’s pretty much impossible.
A lot of states require lawyers to represent both buyer and seller, but NY state requires a lawyer to represent the bank?!?! Madness! What is he going to do, re-read the pre-printed mortgage instrument at every closing?
Stuff like this really does give lawyers a bad name. Usually lawyers only bother people involved in litigation, but in NY State, it looks like they are making the purchase of a home more expensive too. Terrible.
“And I have never figured out a way to cheat anyone in a residential RE closing. It’s pretty much impossible.”
How about failure to disclose defects. And you forgot a title search (insurance).
Our lawyer noticed several flaws in our sales contract that would have put us at a disadvantage. $1,400 for a competent professional who is on your side is well worth it when you are spending several hundred thousand dollars plus tens of thousands in closing costs and prepaid items.
Disclosure of defects is not a legal issue, it’s a home inspection issue. I’m a lawyer, I don’t know how to determine whether the house you are buying has termites.
And in most states, the title insurance company does the title search. The lawyer just gets a copy of the report. Besides, these days title searches are all computerized. You don’t actually have to go down to the county recorder’s office and pour over the plat and survey books any more, except in very rual jurisdictions (I think it’s still done that way in New England, but it’s certiany not necessary in most major metro areas, like Chicago, NYC, and LA.)
The lawyer just fills out the forms and tells the mortage lender what escrow company to wire the money to.
Had a lawyer who did a “title search” once who, when I asked him about the numerous “exceptions” he noted on his “search”, said smugly “well I guess you won’t be going through with this transaction”.
I said, “I guess not unless you guarantee me that I will not get bitten by these ‘exceptions’ you couldn’t be bothered to thoroughly investigate”.
Long story short, the lawyer tried to BS me but when I started to get up and leave he had a hurried meeting in another room and came back to agree with my demands. Moral? I don’t think this lawyer did anything other than look at the title and note what was on it. Maybe this is the job but if that’s the case, why pay a professional (as noted above) to simply document “exceptions”? Why, if there are no exceptions, do you need title insurance? Why, if you’re getting title “insurance” do you need a title “search” that documents but does nothing to explain “exceptions”?
“Potential buyers are holding out, betting that prices will decline, she said. One big result is that the ‘really over-priced’ homes are ‘coming into reality,’ West said.”
“Really over priced homes” covers about 98% of the Long Island market. All that money to spend hours on the LIE, Southern State and LIRR. And the freakin taxes! Oy Vey!!!!!!!
Mugsy, you are way off. “Really over priced homes” in Long Island is closer to 99.999999% of all homes. It’s frigging Long Island not Fantasy Island. They have the New York Islanders, a hockey team that hasn’t been good since the Mike Bossey days. They have the phony Hamptons and they have the Long Island Railroad. BFD. Long Island is toast, set to the darkest setting.
um, what about the platinum coast (great neck, manhasset, old brookville, roslyn, oyster bay, etc) which extends across the northern shore of Nassau? Those are some of the best towns in America….
And all of the great towns in the USA have become ridiculously overpriced. The greater it is perceived to be the more ridiculous the prices have become. And who is defining greatness?
garcap all those north shore towns you mentioned are all in bubble madness
had a friend who sold a place on shelter rock road in 99 in one of those gated joints off the lie and it went for 550k
now it is over 1.2
no bubble here
hi nycityboy — i completely agree with you. i live on the supposed gold coast in nassau county and i would say most houses are overpriced by at least $150,000. these people are living in a fantasy world with their fantasy prices. You can literally pay close to $600,000 and be next door to a section 8 house. Having grown up down south i find this bizarre beyond belief.
I would love to move away but my BF grew up here and does not want to leave — plus we are both artists and unfortunately nyc is the place for jobs in our field. IMO, i think NYC is artist unfriendly — being that the price anywhere (for rent) is astronomical and seems to only favor wall street types.
We’ve been saving for years for a house and have a sizable downpayment and want to do a 30 year fixed. Yet the prices are so ridiculous i’d feel like i was hanging myself. As an artist I’m no financial wizard, but I can spot a bad deal thanks to the frugality and common sense i was raised with.
as a first timer here, my apologies if i’ve made any mistakes. and many thanks for all the insight on this blog.
It doesn’t look to me as though you have made any mistakes. Just keep saving and renting and eventually you’ll almost certainly be able to buy at a much lower price. In any event, anything is better than committing financial suicide by buying in the biggest real estate bubble in the history of the world.
After 25 years of buying, renting, selling, renting out, all types of real estate in the NYC region (Manh,boroughs, LI and NJ), IMO, the best strategy there is to focus on multi-family properties. A single-family homein the area for an average household income, (yes, 100K needed in the region), is a losing proposition from a cost perspective. Its astounding what the average homeowner there has to commit in resources for some decent housing and the sacrifices /lost opportunity for this housing is almost comical if not depressing. This realization is fueling the exodus which will pick up even more steam for the next 7 to 10 years.
2 family homes in decent areas in queens are at least 700k or more and for that you have to deal with a tenant and the headaches that come along with being a landlord.
i know plenty of people who have multi family units (very popular in the outer boroughs) if you have owned them for many years you are sitting on a goldmine. if your mortagage is paid off (believe it or not i grew up in middle village queens and it is stuck in a timewarp over there) there are these blue hairor boomer types with paid off mortgages, two rent paying tenants, a pension from the city or state, social security etc etc and they are the cheapest things on 2 feet
the old bastards are sitting on a pile of cash or sleeping on it under their mattress in some cases
no wonder the neighborhood is really old because what young family can buy a 600k 3bdrm 1.5 bath on a 20×100 (with 20% down on a 30 year fixed)
queens is a freaking joke people need to get a grip on reality
as for long island all i can say it is the joe six pack capital of
ny with soccer mom’s, suv’s, fast food joints, horrible traffic and astronomical taxes, thanks but no thanks keep your 50 year old overpriced pos and rot in it for all i care
many young long island families have been heading to north carolina
and there is also a major illegal population as well,( go to a home depot or 7-11 parking lot any day if you do not believe me) in fact it is very famailar to many california areas go figure
Right on target observations by mgnyc on Long Island and the borough multi-family situation were a small minority of well-off owners are accumulating wealth by being subsidized by NYC tax and Building Dept. policies. The boroughs of NYC are now mostly, with the exception of very few pockets, home to the last generation of European heritage seniors ,masses of immigrants, many of them illegals, Asians of every possible variety and a huge growing Central American population.
As I visit these neighborhoods ,I knew fron the late 70s and 80s, my gloom slowly turns to almost despair. Even Manhattan, which once had distinct and affordable neighborhoods has morphed into more of a generic destination with a preeminent emphasis on money.
“…home to the last generation of European heritage seniors ,masses of immigrants, many of them illegals, Asians of every possible variety and a huge growing Central American population.”
Raven, why are you separating the European immigrants from today’s immigrants (”many of them illegals”)? For Goodness sake, the one thing that has NOT changed about NYC is its role as an immigration gateway. The generations-old slur against Italian immigrants, “WOP,” came from from an Ellis Island designation - “Without Papers.” Illegal immigrants, those sneaky-Italians-that-have-assimilated-and-contributed-immensely-to-our-society!!! Same thing with the Irish - look at old Help Wanted newspaper ads, from the 19th century - “No Irish Need Apply” was very common. Vermin, after all. (Sorry great grandma and grandpa).
I agree with you that Manhattan (I grew up there) is basically ruined. When everyone in sight is an investment banker, life is really not very interesting. It’s a damn shame.
NYC as an immigration gateway,.. well. yes.. partially true, but hyped like everyhting else about the Big Apple…from the 40s to the late 70s, there was little incoming due to existing laws and national/int’l. events.. The tsunami was unleashed again in the mid 80s and continues unabated until, in my opinion, the non-Euro population is down to about 25% , mostly concentrated in Manhattan. I’ve been urging anybody I know there who’s over 40 to get out or make plans to do so shortly. Of course, easier said than done.
got that right
i looked on ACRIS one time at a bunch of houses for sale i found on Craigslist and most of them were paid off mortgages with no HELOC or any other kind of lien against the property.
what a lot of people won’t admit is that RE was very undervalued back in 1997 before the run up began. I have some family that paid $75000 for a two bedroom apartment in forest hills. Right now it’s around $350,000.
Bingo, dba. It was way undervalued in 1997. Why? It “over corrected” (I love Wall Streetese) after the last bust. No sensible person would buy real estate, because “everyone knew” it was “a terrible investment.”
Oh, but IT”S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!
I would give anything to Groucho Marx alive and commenting on the current state of affairs….
Resurrection Ascenion parish bazar and hanging out at Pat’s pizza across from the dairy. Nope, never been to Middle Village :>
Also telling are the median prices for houses in contract, a number that indicates the latest overall housing prices. That value slipped in Suffolk by 1.0 percent to $395,000 from $399,000 a year ago. In Nassau, it declined by 2.1 percent to $465,000 from $475,00.”
This brings up an interesting question. (Maybe I should post it in Weekend Topics).
Here in Astoria and Forest Hills, Queens I have seen prices increase for SFHs over 100% in about 6 years. From $250,000-$350,000 to over $700,000 in 2005.
They have since declined at least %10 if not more. What was the “reported” price increase for this period? I’m pretty sure it wasn’t 100%! What does this 1%-2% decline mean in real terms?
Never really thought much about it before but reading the comments so far, it seems those who buy are increasingly getting gouged by more and more real estate feeders. The realtors get you. The state gets you. The mortgage company gets you. Of course the banks get you. The insurance companies get you. You are always on the hook for fixing or improving something. And for what? So you can live under the illusion that you own your own home when, in fact, you are simply renting it off the bank for 30 years.
I’ve been very suspect about this incredible and obviously unsustainable rapid run-up in prices from day one. Especially since the politicians have basically said nothing about the dangers of these exotic mortgages, etc, I figured there was a underlying reason they have allowed it to happen without comment. In my book, there is only one section of society more sleezy than realtors and drug dependant street hookers and that’s politicians. Truth is, realtors and hookers almost come out of the wash pure white compared to grubby politicians.
My inclination is that both federal and state governments have allowed this to happen (and have taken into account collateral damage by figuring in a percentage of fb’s) so that individual property owners become future mini-banks.
For the actual owner, as means testing arrives for retirees (and don’t kid yourself it isn’t coming) it means reverse mortgages to pay for all or part for those hip replacement operations, heart operations, etc. Unless you are naive enough think medicare is going to continue paying for $150,000 medical proceedures for the hundreds of thousands of boomer retirees who are going to live until they are 90+. And that doesn’t take into account 25 years of social security payments. So, got a house worth $650,000 and need a $150,000 medical proceedure? Okay, government will tell you, reverse mortgage your house and come back to us when it’s all gone. BTW, unless you gifted the house to your kids 20 years ago, trying to get out by saying you don’t own the house ain’t gonna work.
Of course, the REAL benefit for government (but not the property owner) will be property taxes. Property owners will be a wonderful future cash cow they can tap into and, trust me, government will tap in. Up to the point where the cow is drained of every drop of milk. Even Prop 13 type legislation will not save you.
I read some time ago that Greenspan told a fellow university graduate that he had come up with a solution which would solve America’s future financial problems like medicare, pensions, etc. The story never explained what that solution was but I’m starting to think Greenspan’s plan (when he turned on the free cash spigot) was based on ramping up real estate prices. Of course, we know it was to climb out of the $5 trillion hole created by the stock market meltdown but why did they allow (with no comment) another massive bubble to inflate so quickly. As usual, always look for the hidden agenda.
mike it makes renting these days the
smartest bet in nyc metro area
hey my house is going to have a wonderful holiday season and when my amex bill comes next month guess what? il pay that bad boy in full!
happy holidays to all and a great 2007 of blogging and saving
cannot wait for spring!
What’s an “amex bill”? Is that something associated with one of those credit card things? As a NYC renter I don’t have much familiarity with, or need for, one of those things.
Merry Christmas to all renters and responsible owners!
Ya know, credit isn’t in any evil, if you manage it properly. An Amex or even dare I say it, Mastercard, comes in handy for lots of things.
Merry festivus, to the rest of us.
Josh
I agree. We keep ours in a glass case with an ax next to it. It reads, “in case of emergency break glass”.
Mike,
really interesting thesis. Suggests that those of us now renting should expect to continue renting, to avoid the property tax squeeze. Also, with millions of buyers now permanently tied to their homes and unable to sell, those of us who rent are free to move to follow jobs, opportunites, etc. Welcome to the New American Dream–property-free with moveable liquid assets.
If you want to own real estate without the hassles just dollar cost average into a good REIT index fund (though right now I think they are a bit overpriced …)
On the eastern end of Long Island, the real estate agents, attorneys and title closers who haven’t been doing this for at least 10-15 years are coming down with Post Bubble Stress Syndrome. They can’t believe their business has wound down so much and so fast.
Some of the wall street bonus babies will be looking for homes out there but the early word is they’re in no hurry and will be driving very hard bargains - looking to pay year 2001 prices. If they can’t buy, they’ll rent. They buy out in the Hamptons for one thing above all - their images. The last think they want is to have a high profile real estate purchase go south. What will that say for their deal making?
As screwed as that upper end market is shaping up to be, the lower end market in the Hamptons (which out there could be $1.5 million and less) is hurting even more. A lot of folks stretched and now realize they are in trouble. Bye bye second homes.
Got my coop annual report for my 1 bedroom in queens this week. The highest price paid for a 1 bedroom in my building is up by about 25% year over year.
Funny thing is that at current sales prices and a 20% down payment it’s just in the affordable range for a married couple with an average income. Last year the highest price was $175,000 and this year the highest price for a 1 bedroom in my building was $225,000. this is real sales data, not asking prices.
dba where in queens is this? fh,kew gardens,rego park?
earlier this year i saw people asking for over 300k for a one bedroom in forest hills in so-so buildings
the whole coop thing scares me because i remember when people were taking a major bath on those back in the early 90’s
back in 97 i was renting a large 1 bedroom off yellowstone in forest hills and the owner was begging me to buy it for like 75-80K, i should have it is now in the 180-220k range but hey i was not in a position to buy back then and personally the neighborhood has taken a major turn south imo
rego park
my mom made a nice profit buying at the bottom of the last downturn. before my parents divorced they wanted $80,000 for a 1 bedroom in forest hills we were living in. After the divorce my mom bought it for $15,000.
the last downturn was because everyone tried to flip their new coop right after they bought it. these days there is almost no sponsor or unsold shares anywhere so you have to go through board approval and can’t flip.
back in the 1980’s every building was going coop and the first buyers had a right to sell to anyone without board approval.
“a sprinkling of cities” said LIErah
may be flat to down on the east coast in 07
really? which ones will go up
NJ is a nightmare for sellers. I recently rented a townhouse in North Haledon, NJ. This development was built in the last 4 years. An ordinaly little town, not bad but nothing plush. On the main road in this development right now there are 9 houses for sale, all of them about the same in size, prices vary from $515,000 to $639,000!!! (All on GSMLS). Four others on this road are for rent.
Our landlord is 24 and owns 4 houses in this development - no, his name isn’t Casey….at least I hope not. Hope to see more on this excellent blog about NJ.
So glad I persuaded the wife we should rent for a couple of years, even if we will have kids soon!
Well, some of that GS bonus money is getting spent on a new condo. Went with friends to see a condo they’re thinking of buying, new construction on Upper West Side, on Broadway, low 90s. 23rd Floor, only 2 apts per floor, windows on three sides, can see Hudson River/NJ on one side, Hudson River/Brooklyn etc. on the east…place still unfinished, but view alone so seductive…like an old 30s movie of Manhattan glamour. They will sell their prewar coop I guess. The price is so far out of my range I didn’t even bother to ask…but if you had the cash to burn, it was something to see. Place is dog friendly, which probably will seal the deal. No kids, both Wall Streeters, and wife is a happy Goldman baby. I’m one of those people whose friends have mega bucks compared to my very modest horde…and usually I am a very happy renter. But, this was really a trip to fantasyland. And I thought their coop was swell.
Hudson River/Brooklyn…
East River/Brooklyn…apparently I’m losing it.