Post Local Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your local housing market this holiday weekend? Builder incentives? Relisted properties? Anecdotes?
How about cheaper land? “During the real-estate boom and recent slowdown, the focus has been almost entirely on the price of homes. But land prices have taken an even wilder ride.”
“Residential lot prices in or near many metro areas across the country, including Boston, Washington, D.C., and Naples, Fla., have plummeted in the past year, some as much as 29 percent.”
“Big landowners are feeling the pain, too. According to Chicago-based Grubb & Ellis, the median price of parcels averaging between 40 and 94 acres is $162,000 per acre year-to-date, 28 percent below the 2004 price.”
“In Boston, in the throes of its weakest housing market since the early ’90s, the price of a lot fell 24.5 percent in the third quarter, while home prices fell 9.8 percent. In Naples, Fla., which was recently overrun and then abandoned by speculators, lot prices plummeted 28.7 percent in the same period, while home prices dropped 5.7 percent.”
Any construction changes? “Oklahoma City, Edmond, Midwest City, Moore and Norman issued 5,080 single-family building permits through November, a drop of 13.4 percent.’
“The slowdown and increasing inventory, almost a six-month supply of homes on the market compared with a four-month supply at the first of 2006, has some builders offering extras and incentives to buyers, partly to help sell homes, partly to keep from having to reduce prices, home-building executive Dave Osborn said. But some builders are dropping prices, said Osborn, president of Heartland Homes in Oklahoma City.”
“Cutting prices ’sends a bad message to both existing and potential homeowners,’ Vernon McKown, co-owner and president of sales for Ideal Homes in Norman said. ‘We try to show loyalty to the people that show loyalty to us. That means we do our best to protect the investment and trust our customers place with us. We don’t drop prices because it literally takes equity away from people who already live in our communities.’”
“‘Not to mention, if a customer builds a home, then a few months later the builder slashes prices for their neighbor, it really makes them feel like they were taken advantage of and can leave a bad taste in their mouth.’”
Unnamed town in NNJ. 4 building lots, one with new stucco box. Since 8/06, 4 remax signs with one “pending sale” sign. Friday morning, all remax signs removed and replaced with Wiechert signs. No more sale pending.
Warner and 44th intersection in Ahwatukee (Phoenix suburb). Corner house with for sale by owner sign for several months. The sign is gone. My guess is he gave up. It’s a very busy intersection. Certainly not a place for anyone but deaf people.
That house had been for sale since at least the summer of ‘05
Spoke with a young man this morning. His father is a developer in Maryland. Business is dead. He is now beginning to pick up properties along Chesapeake for the next upturn. He has ample cash to sit out years of this downturn.
rotsa ruck
“He has ample cash to sit out years of this downturn. ”
He’ll need it.
the soviets just took over MD- they may demand major offsets near the bay
MD State government is too far to the Left for the Soviets to stomach.
catch a falling knife
Am spending Christmas with family in the Phoenix area. We drove around looking at several housing developments. They are still building fast and furious at Fulton Ranch, a higher end project in Chandler. There is an unbelievable amount of high end stuff out here. It is quite baffling as some high end homes are still selling. On my sisters street (I will leave out the name to protect my anonymity) one house was listed for $2,000,000 and sold for $1,250,000. That may seem like a huge reduction, however, it was WAY overpriced to begin with. Another, which needed work, sold for $850,000. The latter was purchased for $725k back in 2000 so probably not too bad of a deal. I found several homes on craigslist Phoenix advertised as short sales subject to the banks approval. Lots and lots of ads for flippers in trouble. It is really bad around here.
Christmastime 5 years from now in those same areas you could probably pick up some real bargains. My shopping budget 5 or 6 years from now is $400,000. In 5 years intend to use realty web sites and filter for homes between $300,000 and $400,000 in Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, the central California coast, and the Portland area. Many extreme differences, but I have interest in all those places. If I have $2.5 million in 5 years, I will probably see what I can buy for $500,000 in RPV.
$850,000 in Phoenix
$500,000 in Bakersfield
Be free!
This is why I’m starting to hate RE agents. They manipulate the numbers to sell. Now it is not the median price, but the average that determines what the market is doing.
This blowhard expects buyers to ignore “lower prices, higher inventories, a buyers market, etc.” She expects buyers to instead accept the average (not median) price as the benchmark. This average results in $34k increase in new home sales from september to october. Although the statistic is accurate, it does not reflect the realities of the market at all. It is enfuriating to see this type of spin and deception.
http://www.barbaralasky.com/tucson-real-estate-blog/tucson-real-estate-news/tucson-housing-bust/
in the Netherlands the ‘average home price’ has been redefined by the realtors as the average price of the median 50% of homes sold. Leaving out the bottom and top 25% of the market apparently makes it easier to spin the numbers.
They should call it ‘halverage’ home price!
For an agents site, I found it kinda interesting. With the “official” average days on market in Tucson now about 60, they had this to say.
“By The Way, a couple of months ago while trying to get a better snapshot of the true DOM an afternoon was spent looking at listings in the MLS from a random sampling around town. The Average Days on Market taking into consideration re-listing those properties was 197 day. Yep that’s right “197 DAYS”, more than 6 months.”
w the power of the net-why would anyone waste 5% on a realtor ?
For buyers who actually know how to buy a house…..questions to ask and info to research, it doesn’t make any sense. The question is…..does the buyer how to negotiate the 5% into their pocket? Just because there’s 5% “out there”, doesn’t mean the seller will autogive it to you……
If houses are coming down by $100,000 how can a Tucson home be appreciating? It seems to me that they are depreciating. Somebody, please help me with this!
When I bought my “entry-level” condo 6 years ago, I had hoped to eventually move up to a single family home - yet in Marin County, CA this has become less and less possible. Comparable condos in my area are now selling for about 25% less than what they were at the height of the bubble while single family homes haven’t budged in the least - in fact, they’re selling for a bit more. In the past six years, my salary certainly hasn’t increased at the rate of home prices. The divide seems to reflect everything else in this country; the rich continue to get richer and the “middle class” and poor poorer. This Marin PoS blog documents some classic examples of the more “affordable” homes in my area: http://marinpos.blogspot.com/
Condos rise last and fall first, there is nothing odd or even strange about that. Moving up from a condo to a house is a tricky endeavour unless you are actually just trading a smaller payment for a bigger one. If your condo was just a forced savings plan then you will almost never win with that calculus.
Reminds me of the phrase that in RE you make your money when you buy, not when you sell.
Josh
Yes, I understand that my mortgage payment would be significantly higher, but I think I went wrong in the assumption that (factoring in inflation) my salary would increase at approximately the same rate as home prices. At least in software engineering, that has not been the case since 2000. However, I entered the work force right before the previous high tech Bubble so that probably skewed my expectations.
if you bought 6 yrs ago- be happy
you could have racheted up to the SFH in 05 and now be screwed
“Comparable condos in my area are now selling for about 25% less than what they were at the height of the bubble while single family homes haven’t budged in the least
That is what is happening throughout LA area: I am seeing average condo prices fall a bit more sharply in the LA westside(according to dataquick) while SFH’s in most zips stay the same or have receded just a tad. Not to say that condos are at dirt-cheap prices yet in LA, except for some areas in the SF Valley. Next year there will be several thousand new condos coming to market in or around the LA Dwtn area, which should further depress the LA county Condo prices. Not that LA dwtn is a an especially attractive area to own a condo, but if they drop to less than $400,000 for a 2/2 1000 sq ft in a half-way decent area of dwtn, which i think they will in 2007, then there might be more than a few takers.
Then again Condo prices in Long beach Dwtn(30 miles south of LA dwtn)are dropping to the low $300,000’s, but LB dwtn area has some problems.
Yes prices for Condos and SFRs are still high in LA, although the condo prices in some areas have started dropping. In downtown Longbeach this high rise luxury condos under construction is being sold at 550k (at the lower end, meaning lower floors and the views not being good - all one can see are the ships in the port, spewing thick smoke from their diesel engines) for a 2/2. This is ridiculously high considering the median income.
West LA and Santa Monica is another story. The greedy speculators and flippers still don’t budge from their high prices. I think it will take at least another year to see a minimal, say 5-7%, drop in SFR prices in these areas. Probably, 2010-11 may be a right time to look at these properties, when no one is interested, to buy. IMO there needs to be catalyst to shock the market for prices to drop significantly. Alas, the only shock that could potentially have any effect on prices is job loss due to a recession, which is unlikely in SM / West LA since the entertainment/ software/ finance industry is pretty strong.
Thoughts/ comments?
It will take a pretty big shock to shake loose the SFH owners here. The condos, on the other hand, will be much more liquid, and the prices will fall on meaningful numbers of units.
Based on what happened last time, the SFH market will stay frozen except for cases where someone dies, and the executor takes a high price from a flipper who will scrape the lot and build a McMansion on it. There weren’t any real deals on houses here during the last collapse (91-94), just some less stupid prices. But the condos were hammered down to just somewhat overpriced.
Even the big earthquake didn’t have much impact on SFHs - people just rebuild their chimneys and went on with their lives.
In the local paper, a city councilman has a new affordable housing plan. He hopes to bring in modular condos, and stack them 20 to an acre.
Meanwhile, we’ve got record inventory. Out of 408 active SFHs, 42 are pending. Out of 368 active lots, 9 are pending.
There is a new ad, about 3 by 5 inches from a FSBO. It’s not in the classifieds either. It reads:
‘I Wish…I Wish.. Our Home Would Sell!’
I Wish..I Wish… OUR HOME WOULD SELL!’
Then under that it has a picture of this guy and the caption:
‘Make Dan’s Birthday Wish Come True!!!’
Along with a web page and a happy birthday from someone.
Talk about DESPERATE !!!
About twenty-five years ago I recall a friend who was an appraiser once telling me not to buy a starter home; buy one that you’d be happy to live in for awhile because you may end up staying there longer than first planned.
That was advice I should have taken in 1990.
modular condo’s
WTF? I could easily fit 20 good rowhomes on an acre, even assuming you had to include the access road.
In fact, I don’t see why the manufactured home builders don’t put more focus on rowhomes and duplexes. I would have thought that a natural market for them to get into.
i wish i wish you would lower your price
form real estate future trump to desperate vicitm’s in little over a year
onward and upward
“from”
SE Michigan, Oakland county.
In my neighborhood:
3100 sq. ft–less than 10 years old–1 acre lot–original list 439K. now 399K–on the market 6 mos.
2600 sq. ft–less than 10 years old–1 acre lot–original list 349K. now 299K–on the market 12 mos
Price reductions here are more the result of the depressed economy rather than a deflating of a bubble.
Tripleplay, where are you in the OC of you don’t mind me asking? I am in Dearborn, things are terrible here. Even the $150K houses take 6 months to 2 years to sell.
White Lake township, approx 3 miles east of Milford. I am familiar with Dearborn since I grew up in northwest Detroit.
We don’t drop prices because it literally takes equity away from people who already live in our communities.’”
Geeeeee! Funny that no one said anything on the way up the ladder when prices affected the existing home owners property taxes and now you want to protect equity. You are crazy in your thinking that it is all about price and equity. When will you get a brain transplant and come back to this earth with common sense!!!
The crash in land prices is why many builders are slapping up anything that resembles a house; they’re just cutting their losses.
In SW MO small town on I-44.
A mini-McMansion a block away just sold and a family moved in. They are from another small town 12 mile away. There are 5 other mini-McMansions for sale within a block or two, a few smaller homes, and three blocks of empty lots. This is the first sale that has occurred in 6 months. The house that sold was by far the nicest of them, it had a good floor plan, a fully finished basement, is on a quiet street. Of course it had the obligatory 5 types of exterior facade (fake stone, fake brick, stucco, wood, and aluminum siding).
The real estate section of the LA Times was really thin today. I don’t think anyone expects major events until January. However, being a long time reader I do notice that there are a lot more condos in the market, and, for the first time, there was a REO condo in the valley advertised in the main open house guide (the one that comes with a little photo, not the open house list). I don’t expect much to budge until the end of January. I am also looking forward for the “spring bounce”. Then we will really get to see who was swimming naked…
I was at a party the other day and unintentionally ended up in a slightly heated conversation about housing prices in LA. My friend was adamant that his Pacific Palisades condo was worth a million, because his neighbor just listed his at that price. He paused, then said, “although he did take it off the market yesterday. I’ll have to ask him why.” My guess is the realt-whore TM told him to, and he’ll be surprised to find he’s joined a wave of listings in the new year. But that’s just a guess.
I was at a local home development in Torrance, CA (Southern California). National home builder is selling 2,900+ sq ft homes for $977 to $980k. I asked what kind of incentives were available and response was: $30k in flooring upgrades if you finance with the builder’s lender. I don’t get it. Foot traffic in these homes is virtually zero. The developer has approx 40 homes to sell and will have move-in ready homes starting in March 2007. I don’t understand why prices haven’t been slashed by at least $100k. I wonder how builders make their decisions to slash prices and how long they plan on holding out. This development is primarily targeted towards wealthy Asians. Maybe the developer thinks this demographic will continue to buy? I think these homes are overpriced by $180 to $200k. Anyone have other thoughts?
30K in flooring upgrades in a 2900sq/ft house?
Excuse me? What material could possibly cost 30K to cover that kind of square footage? Maybe a Home Depot prices, but sorry folks the most you could spend to refloor a house that size is about 10K even if you used top tier granite. We did our whole bathroom, shower, floors and half of the wall in travertine for under 2K. Builders are a joke and so are upgrades. Buy the basic house and get your own contractor to install the upgrades and save 75%…
$977,000 in Torrance
$870,000 in Garbage Grove
$850,000 in Phoenix
$500,000 in Bakersfield
Be free!
I haven’t been to Torrance for a couple of weeks. But Beach City Bungalows is my reference point to how the new houses are doing. When I drive by between 8 pm and 9 pm on a Friday night I expect to see a lot of lights indicating occupancy. These places are advertised (national builder) at the high 600s and the first phase has been available for over a year. I estimate no higher than 50% occupancy.
It is way beyond belief how, in the last three years, real estate buyers think doubling in price to pay for some digs is okay. Let’s compare this to stocks. Bank stocks typically are valued with a P/E of 10 to 15. If you checked and found your bank’s P/E is trading around 25 when it typically trades around 15, you would certainly scoff and not buy much, if any, of that bank stock. Yet in real estate, it is much worse. It’s a bigger investment. You can at least buy 10 shares of an overpriced bank stock and you can afford to wait it out for 12 years to recover after the invevitable slide. But to pay $690,000 on a house that would sell for $345,000 just 3 years earlier while annual incomes increased single digit. That is blind faith in real estate.
Stocks tend to be highly liquid (average daily volume, Index) so selling in a turning market is fast and easy.
Stocks don’t have heavy carrying costs.
Sumter, SC YOY Home Sales can be found at:
http://ourcarolina.com/modules/wordpress/?p=38
Local south of Syracuse observation:
Lots of rentals appear to be vacant…..More ads than I’ve ever seen in local paper. In the past people building homes, stayed in rentals for 1+years while kids met people in this school system. Meanwhile, spec homes are sitting….
I noticed my Better Homes Magazine was REALLY thin this month….I’m thinking advertising is disappearing. I laughed out loud when I noticed the stories inside:
The Good Buy Girl: Carefully chosen bargains infuse a SF home w/true romance.
The Simple Life: A family pares down their living space to make a dream come true.
Into the Blue: A do-it-yourselfer…..
Back to Basics: An Illinois couple lives with less and makes the most of every nook in their cozy historic home.
Here in SW Reno there is a new upscale housing development called Belsera. Tuscan McMansions with Casitas on postage size lots with a view. When the models first opened last year, homes were selling for 1.1M, six months later, the developer raised the prices to 1.2. It’s not a large development, maybe 30 homes total, half sold. Now, three homes went up for sale for 850K.
Very bad news for the ones that bought these same homes for 1.2 million.
But…
I’ll bet each one of them there casitas, has genuine faux shutters, to give it an air of respectability, sort of.
$1,200,000 in Reno
$977,000 in Torrance
$870,000 in Garbage Grove
$850,000 in Phoenix
$500,000 in Bakersfield
List of desirable places to spend lots & lots of money is growing and growing.
Be free!
I have seen that place. What a joke.
CALLING DIOGENES (TAMPA): I want to hear more about the mom and pop hotel/motel doings here on Florida’s West Coast. Respectfully, Palmetto
Sorry, Palmetto.
Been taking care of that last minute Holiday shopping and wrapping.
Here’s what I observed yesterday:
The markets are stagnant. More signs, some lookers, no buyers.
There were a couple of open houses at the new condos that were being completed, but basically the agents were not getting any traffic.
As some of you may know, Clearwater Beach was one of those family vacation spots with lots of Mom/Pop outfits for summer vacationers, Canadians and Spring-Break parties.
In the past two years, it was set upon by greedy developers who saw that it was “undervalued” and that the old buildings needed to be torn down in favor of new “LUXURY” condos.
One of the idiots who was interviewed by the St. Pete Times last year about the “new Clearwater Beach” was the broker/owner for Rodger’s Beach Development. That company acquired about 23 sites that they razed and started putting up new townhouses and condos.
On one street, Brightwater drive, there are 11 projects that RBD realty has either finished or are under some stage of construction. Of the completed projects, every group has townhomes for Sale/Rent. I estimate conservatively 60% of the newly finished units are for sale. The street is lined with signs.
There are about 5 units with Christmas Decorations on the street, indicating possibly homeowners, but may be tenants.
At the end of the street is Brightwater Point Condos. They are just finishing. The place is empty. I did not see an open there, but at one of the buildings adjacent. No visitors while I was around. RBD also has a sales office on the street. One car.
Unfortunately, there are 3 or 4 new complexes, I believe called Delfino Bay and La Bella Vista ( 6 story type condos) just coming out of the ground that you can get a “pre-construction prices”.
Down the road on Mandalay Ave to the north, RBD has 2 vacant sites for pre-construction sales. ON is immediately behind a large tower just completing “dry-in” (i think 10 floors) directly on the beach. The other is across the street, in front of a conversion that completed 1-2 years ago. It is a single floor 60’s model motel with studios starting a 159k. They have been 159k since completion about a year or so ago. The place is largely vacant. It fronts on Pointsettia. Immediately across from the North end is the Vacant lot for sale that is the remnants of the 32 unit LUXURY pre-construction condos that didn’t get any takers. I haven’t inquired about the price of the land.
To the South of near the Palm Pavilion, a vacant lot, with sales trailer recently removed sits the “Ambience” or something like that. The signs and trailer for pre-construction came down about a month ago. The vacant land is fenced off, with no indication of any construction starting.
All the larger big beach-front condos are just completing ‘dry-in’, but the pace has been slow. It doesn’t look like anyone is in a hurry to finish anything.
Also on Mandalay, 2 broker offices have lost their listings and signs from the windows. One was primarily a condo sales office, the other a general broker. Both offices are vacant. New casualties in the slowing market.
The new “beach walk” that the city is building in place of some recently razed businesses is starting to take shape, meaning the ground has been cleared. That’s near Pier 60 and the traditional parking for locals. Within 3 blocks are Hyatt’s “Aqualea” project.
The sales office is still up and it looks like piles are being readied for the foundation, but no appreciable work. Aqualea is a “Resort/luxury/Condo-hotel for rich people directly across from the main beach parking lot. Adjacent to that project is another large-scale groundbreaking from the ashes of former beach businesses, of the same venue. Its a “W” project. The name escapes me, but is yet to be built.
All around these projects, are half-open, half-closed Mom/Pop hotel/motels that are still renting rooms or in the process of closing. It’s getting difficult to tell which ones are still in business, and which one’s are going to be the “new paradigm condo” projects. But all the fences and construction makes a mess of the whole area. There are more condos for sale down the street that completed this year also. The parking area is mostly vacant.
And for the final bit of anecdotal spin, here is a personal experience from 8 months ago. I was looking at a sailboat in the Clearwater marina and gained access from an agent selling pre-construction condos with boat slips. I overheard him on the phone telling someone “they’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars and haven’t sold the first one”. That project is just being completed, also. They had banners on the building so you could see it was available from the Memorial Causeway as you came onto the beach. I don’t know how the pre -construction sales have gone, but they haven’t been in a hurry to finish out that building, either.
There are tales or rich Oil sheiks, NFL players, Donald Trump apprentices and various other stories as to who is buying up this inventory, but I am watching the local paper and a “broker/owner” of one of the Brightwater townhouses is offering the cheapest price on the street. I have the paper downstairs if you want a phone number.
But that’s not all. If you don’t think there are enough new units going up, the owner of the restaurant I visit has a permit (good for another 2 years I think he said) to tear down the restaurant and put up MORE condos. He wants to start ASAP so as not to miss out on all the money coming to the beach. PULEEZE.
This is nuts.
I think the end is near.
Wow, diogenes, that was one of the most comprehensive posts on the demise of Clearwater Beach. I remember it as it was, haven’t been out there in about 4 years, since all the craziness began. But it used to be fun walking up and down the strip, in and out of all the little shops and restaurants. It was a place people could go and have a nice time at the beach on the cheap, with all the great little Mom & Pop motels and had a great atmostphere. Now it sounds like a colossal mess, no identity.
No offense to Clearwater Beach, but I just don’t see it becoming a haven for “wealthy” people. Last I was there, the Gulf was sort of a mess, we stuck to the hotel swimming pool rather than swim in the overly warm, seaweed infested water, but that could have been the result of a storm off shore. If the oil drilling takes place, it will be a disaster.
Palmetto,
I forgot to add one item. The restaurant owner, was actually the owner of the strip center in which the dinner is located. If he goes ahead with his plans, the restaurant, and several shops will be history. One of the businesses is a Real Estate Broker. Gotta laugh at that one.
Foist on his own petard.
That should be diner, not dinner, but i was thinking about supper.
Was killing some time in flyover country before my client meeting (Franklin County, MO) so I decided to tour some display homes in a McBride development, $250k base. Middle of the afternoon, I think I was the only person to visit that day as the lonely lady introduced herself and said she was surprised to see me pull up. She had to unlock the displays to let me go thru. Many unsold lots and McBride is offering inventory blowout sales from time to time and 6 months no payments. Wouldn’t want to live that far out from STL but I bet one cound drive a good bargain. Nice houses.
That’s the problem in a nutshell; it doesn’t matter how nice the houses are if no-one wants to live there.
I don’t watch a lot of TV, but I did notice a show called “Sell This House” on one of the cable channels this weekend. Is that the successor to “Flip This House”?
No. Successor will be, “Flip This Burger”
LOL! Post of the day!
Amen
I noticed on HGTV these last few weeks that they plug a new show by declaring “now that the housing prices are falling…” we can make your house more presentable.
The New York Times continues to shill for real estate. Huge Sunday piece on boomers without Wall Street cash selling in the burbs and heading ofr Queens or Brooklyn to grow old in the city. Not a word of any problems in the ever-upward market. Because all the boomers are dreaming of Queens.
…”But not all of the baby boomers being drawn to New York City are wealthy retirees seeking aeries on Central Park. The city is also luring middle-class suburbanites on the lookout for houses and condos in Brooklyn and Queens…
They are seeking either a one-family house for under $600,000, or a two-family for under $800,000…”
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/24/realestate/24cov.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
with NYC’s property taxes compared to the burbs, it’s a lot cheaper to buy in NYC. And the buildings are usually better quality.
sorry if slightly off topic– what’s everyone seeing in the stores as far as traffic? Did the Mecca of Geekdom on Friday (Fry’s Electronics here in OC). Previous years all 50 registers were a humming, and the line would stretch for 1/3 of the way across the front of the store (or more). This time? 3 people ahead of me in the queue. 45 second wait.
Did the Irvine Spectrum yesterday (under protest). Have successfully avoided it like the plague for the last 24 months, cause traffic/crowds were so bad. Found a parking space, no waiting, about 200 ft from the door. Fair foot traffic, but no where near what a normal Friday nite was a year ago.
Also did a WallyWorld (WalMart) Wednesday@ lunch to pick up some stuff for the toy drive. 1 person ahead of me in line.
Maybe, just maybe, everyone bought online, or just got their new flat plasmas. Or not.
I was in a Circuit City yesterday in San Mateo and was shocked at how fast we got in & out. I expected long lines at the cash register, but the only line was three people in front of the Customer Service desk.
It seemed to me that things should have been busier on the Saturday before Xmas, but perhaps they were all off at Best Buy or shopping in the malls.
I shopped Friday night. Best Buy had no wait in the line, I parked close at the local mall, no line at any store I bought at (Wilson’s Leather, Sears). Went to Wal-Mart, lines were about 2-3 deep when I entered, 5-6 deep when I was ready to buy … so I didn’t buy.
My son went to the same Mall on Saturday night, said it was packed, no parking, yadda yadda. Maybe, maybe not, but he just got his drivers license, and really has no reference to Christmas Past. I went back to the same Sears Saturday (around dinner time), parked closed, in and out with no wait in line.
Auto traffic was heavy by normal standards, but seemed real light to me by Christmas standards.
I also went to nerdstroms last Friday evening (Fry’s on NW hwy, Dallas) to get a $15 keyboard for the kid’s computer. Traffic was light to almost fair — for a normal day. Less than half the registers staffed and zero line at checkout. As I post this, I just got back from Lowes (shopac filter), and it was dead. I asked the cashier and she said it was like that all day. I also had to go by Collin Creek Mall in Plano a week ago, and it was very light.
I know it’s just ancedotal, but I would not be surprised if x-mas retail was so far off previous years, that the reported numbers will be spun.
Just had lunch at Jinky’s on Second Street, right off the Promenade and one block from Santa Monica Place. I did see a few folks walking around with packages, but traffic was light and the free parking lots were not full. I don’t remember ever seeing it this dead on the last shopping day before Christmas.
SM-landlord, we got to the Promenade in time for lunch, found parking right away (338 empty spaces in the lot, according to the sign) and sat for lunch at a restaurant that was less than 1/3 full. For those of you not from SCal, this is NOT normal. Usually you can’t get parking after noon on a Sunday, especially when the weather is nice (today was beautiful). We also shopped some at Adventure 16 on Saturday, and did not have to stand in line. The only place where I saw real shopping activity for the season were the Beverly Center (it was packed on Thursday, and people were shopping) and Borders (stood in line for about 15min to pay). That was it in the world’s Mecca of consumerism. I may be wrong, but I don’t think the retailers are having a good season.
Like I said, it doesn’t look like it is going to be a good shopping season for retailers:
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8M7F7480.htm
Interesting that the media nonchalantly gave up on what the consumers have done pre-Christmas, and are now thinking that post Christmas consumerism will be brisk and set the pace for 2007 stock market. I will say the jury will be out through January 3. like most of the rest of you, I expect consumption to be significantly below the 2005 holiday season.
On the 26th I will be earning money - software engineer. Probably will be the only one at the office. I won’t be shopping. I’ll check out Chipotles and see if it’s packed (Phoenix about 4 miles west of old town Scottsdale). I’ll drive past Costco there and see if it’s busy on the 26th too.
I’m not from Santa Monica (from Philly, in fact), but I’ve been there plenty of times and often had to drive for 20 minutes just to find a parking space in the garages near the Promenade.
This report from FL.
In the Riverview, Apollo Beach, Ruskin, Sun City Center Areas, the are still building like there is no tomorrow. There are still literally thousands of homes going up. I believe these are land holdings the builders already purchased and they are rushing to complete these and get them sold as fast as they can. I think there are more losses to the downside for builders than what they have already reported. I am seeing the same thing in the Sarasota / Bradenton market. It is literally going to take years before all of this inventory an be absorbed. How do you do that when they latest trend via Uhaul shows more people moving out of the state than into it?
They still show FL and Arizona as two fast growing states along with TX and some others. I just cannot fathom it.
Tom, I’m in the same area. However, I am seeing stalled developments, most notably the KB Home developments. Also ghost town developments along Shell Point Road east of 41, complete with grafitti tagging. Also hearing about trouble in the Lennar development along the Little Manatee River in Ruskin. The guy across the street from me in AB bought a single family to renovate and sell. He got the new roof and windows in, but the false porch/facade has the tar paper peeling away from the understructure. He used to stop by the place every day, now maybe once a week. Seems to have stalled, don’t know if it was money or the inspection process.
I saw guys out there waving Lennar signs. The one guy was wearing a hat that kind of told me that he was the one spraying the graffiti after hours. I see lots of bare land that they have scraped and I still see quite a few homes going up. Mayb not as much as before, but they are still going up.
On the back way from Apollo Beach over to Ruskin/Sun City Center at 674, there’s this area off 30th with signs designating it as SouthShore Plaza, no building as yet. Future commercial development. I just don’t see it as a place that will have that much traffic. Also a sign in Ruskin on a piece of property touting a townhouse/mixed use development coming. No construction as yet. I do see some construction going on, but looks half-hearted. 301 is a nightmare from Sun City Center to Brandon. When we moved here in 2000, all that land on either side of 301 was mostly either farmland or vacant/woods. Hard to believe what has happened in six short years.
Nov 1st numbers in Anthem AZ, excluding new buildings.
661 homes on the market, selling 42 homes a month.
This is 15-16 months of inventory.
I am noting that the housing bulls in Sacramento feel the market has corrected and 2007 is start of the next up cycle. However, I am noting more trolls on Sacramento Blogs. I think people are getting scared.
In Leihi acres a few miles inland from Naples, land you would have had difficulty buying a lot for $50,000….. now they are going for $20,000. That is not a 29% drop in some areas.
15 years ago, those lots sold for $2000.
And, they were difficult to unload.
Finally got some November figures from the Realtors in Billings, MT. YOY sales down 15%.
I know sales drops are old news for the rest of you, but things are just starting to turn here. This is probably the first double-digit YOY sales figure decline in 5 years. The rolling bubble now sees a rolling downturn.
Hey Tango, How is Gallatin Valley?
more observations-
Went out about 1 pm today to go check the Tustin Ranch CompUSA for their $250 screamin deal desktop. SURPRISE! Not only did they have them in stock, but it had been slow enough that I had to tell the guy which one was on sale. Straight up to the register-no wait.
Same thing at the Spectrum barnes and noble. When I joked with the clerk about falling asleep. she gave me a sad look and said it had been that way all day.
Of course, there was 1 person ahead of me at Costco!
Seems like that roar that retail heard after turkey day has turned into the sound of silence.
Sounds like they robbed demand from the future in the heady days of the post T-day shopping frenzy. We had little mall traffic in Montclair, CA, but admittedly, we were early in the day. There was plenty of merchandise on the shelves and hangers.
I used to work in retail management, so I went on a tour Saturday night. Target - busy. Mall - jam packed. Wal-Mart & CVS. Busy. BUT - all the stores had plenty of merchandise, and Wal-Mart looked to be fully stocked on holiday gifts and especially decorations. I would short Wal-Mart stock because the store I visited (the #1 in the company) had enough Christmas decorations for at least another week of selling. Noticed pallets of snow globes and Christmas trees, all marked down 50% and that was on 12/23.
There are going to be some helluva good deals on Christmas gifts and merchandise tomorrow for those who want to shop. I bet WalMart stock is 42-43 in 2 weeks.
From the NY Times - signs of trouble in paradise it would seem:
Not everyone on Wall Street is getting multimillion-dollar bonuses. The average managing director — who stands at the top of Wall Street’s hierarchical food chain, but far from rock-star status — will be getting $1 million to $3 million, which will likely be stashed in savings as memories of the 2001 bear market remain fresh.
“I’m putting it in the bank because I know next year I could be out of a job,” said one managing director at a leading bank.
For hedge fund traders and managers, markets were rough in the spring and summer, and some did not make gains until stocks rallied this fall.
“It was a terrible year,” said one young hedge fund professional. “I am going to the movies with my bonus. By myself.”
At cocktail parties, comparisons to 1999 abound. That year marked the height of the technology boom and the eve of a painful crash. “It feels a little bit like the top,” said another banker.
http://tinyurl.com/yzqjlf
Well, the kids are asleep and the gifts are wrapped. Just one more thing before I go to sleep. I spent Xmas Eve with a realtor, and of course I asked him what his take on the market was. Now here is a guy who thinks 100% financing is the natural thing to do, but as we got deeper into the conversation he said that at this point the market could go either way, and that there is some disagreement as to whether they have hit bottom or not. He is optimistic, of course, but when I asked him about my particular situation he did say that it was better to wait and see how things unfold. It was a nice Xmas gift: realizing that if you scratch the surface a realtor might show a bearish bent…
From today’s NYT
“Wall St. Bonuses: So Much Money, Too Few Ferraris”
“Miller Motorcars, in Greenwich, Conn., is fielding more requests for the $250,000 Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano than it can possibly fill. One real estate broker laments a dearth of listings for two clients trying to spend $20 million on Manhattan properties. Financiers already comfortably settled in multimillion-dollar apartments and town houses are buying $5 million apartments for their children. Vacation homes, usually bought and sold in the spring, are now hot this winter, including ones in private resorts like the Yellowstone Club in Montana near Yellowstone National Park.”
“Then came bonus day. Last week, Michele Kleier, president of Gumley Haft Kleier, received a call from a hedge fund manager in his late 30s. He had spent $6 million on an apartment two years ago and, with his bonus, wanted to upgrade. His new price range? “Not more than $20 million.””
“Adding to the spending spree is a rash of young hedge fund analysts, first big bonus checks in hand, scooping up the $2 million to $3 million starter apartments (most popular features: glass walls, marble bathrooms and kitchens — likely to go unused — with top-flight appliances).”
It will be interesting to see what the Manhattan numbers look like next year.
2 million starter apts?
this is funny stuff
what wall street needs is a good housecleaning
where is the hedge fund analyst? oh silly me he is
online at the ferrarri dealership
i really have got to keep working on getting my wife on
the lets leave nyc train
look at me in my 20m glass box! it should be an exhibit at moma
Our Costco at Elliot and Priest in Tempe was crowded as usual on Christmas Eve around 11:30 a.m. We bought necessities, not gifts.
No open houses, not even a SD Union Tribune Home section this weekend. I guess the residential RE market has officially thrown in the towel on 2006, and is collectively waiting until after the Souper Bowl to recover from the recent soft landing.
In Tennessee, your $8,000 house sits on a lot assessed at $936,000 because someone might tear it down and build a $1 million house on the lot. Something wrong with this picture?
http://tinyurl.com/ybdqmr
There are a fewreasons to pay a premium to live in California vs middle America. High on the list is Prop 13. Yes, the schools suck a little more than they should, but in reality most of that can be attributed to the socioeconomic status of the families in the state, not a funding deficiency.
If you’re going to have land someplace other than CA, it’s worth trying to find a way of getting Ag status, which often keeps the assessments manageable.
As for lifestyles in the center vs the coasts. Thing to realize is that most of the country outside the big coastal cities is really family zone. Most singles or married with no kids folks will poke their eyes out with boredom to live in most of these places because they are all about the kids. But the fact is that if you have kids your life is pretty much going to be the same no matter where you live: School, soccer, PTA, preschool, grocery shopping, cooking, cleaning, putting the kids to bed and crashing in front of the TV.
Isn’t that Al Gore’s state?
Gaithersburg, MD checking in.
Corner of Diamondback Rd and Sam Eig Hwy (West end of I-370) Across the “Washingtonian Center”, an erzatz mini town center alongside a drainage ditch, er, lakefront ajacent I-270 NW of DC.
Townhomes from $600,000 in one corner of a busy intersection, townhomes from $1,100,000 on the other corner. This is Gaithersburg not Potomac, mind you, or even Bethesda. Across the street, “Crown Farm” will be developed, one the last holdouts of working farmland in this densely populated area. A positive, two traffic lights and 1 mile of interstate to the Metro!
Amazing sight in North NJ today.
Heading back to Philly from my cousin’s home in Demarest, NJ, this morning, I took a wrong turn and somehow wound up on Route 505, which hugs the NJ shoreline of the Hudson River.
Through just about my entire drive along Route 505 (10 miles or so), I saw about 15 massive developments. Some were completed, but most were still under construction. At least one developemnt hadn’t even laid a brick yet — but it had a massive area of land fenced off. Some developments were townhomes, with at least 100 units each. Some were high-rise condos, with what could have been closer about 1000 units each.
OK, the view of Manhattan from this location is very sweet. But the vastness of these developments is simply amazing. If anyone is familiar with the area, perhaps they can provide some links to these humongous develpments.
Who on earth is going to buy all of these condos/townhomes? Remember, there are tons of condos being built/converted in Brooklyn and Queen (and in Manhattan, of course).
It’s a nice area and I’m sure the views are lovely, but the commuting options are … limited.
I just took out an annual lease on a 1450 sf 3/2 w/garage condo at a luxury resort in Naples for $1050 monthly. The out of state owner bought it mid 2005 for 314k, he also owns 3 other condos here in Naples. Annual taxes per county records about $3500. HOA $625 quarterly. I believe this guy is taking a $1400 hit a month on the unit I leased.
Make sure he’s up to date on condo fees, etc.
More horror stories hitting the presses about sleezy landlord operators.
Credit reports on landlords will be necessary soon.
They might even have to write letters to potential renters:
Uh, tell me why I should rent from you.
Las Vegas:
My subdivision has 3 types of homes: small (1950/1964 sq ft) medium
(2124/2156 sq ft) and large (2301/2311/2325 sq ft).
Last 2 homes sold in my subdivision in December: $400K (small) and $450K (large). In 2005 the smalls were averaging $415K, large were averaging $465K.
Time on the market was 98 (small) and 117 (large). In 2005 average for whoel subdivision was 42 days. So things are very slow, but prices are holding up.
The real shaft is going to come when builders bail on 1/2 done developments and their competetor (co conspirators depending on how you look at it) takes over. I have seen developments started by David Weekly sell for 125 a sqft, 30 houses in they sell to shea who sells at 100 a sqft, and another 50 in they sell to beazer who sells first for $80 a sqft and slowly drop to 50 a sqft for the last 6. I know, cos I bought one of those, but never closed cos I found a better one from centex that was 700 sqft larger and cheaper. That is what I want to see en masse. That is when the fun begins.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
I fully expect that to happen en masse. Many of these half-finished developments will sit half-finished for many years.
I live in suburban Chicago. What I have been seeing is a ton of building in developments that aren’t selling. I’m not sure for the reason. Maybe they are planning a large auction or they want to have houses ready in early Spring, suddenly cut prices to attract the few buyers before the huge drops during the summer. This way they aren’t walking the market down.
If you look at Lennar’s earnings estimate, they expect a huge drop in profits this quarter. What I think they are going to do is shut down a few developments and take the loss all in one quarter.
They aren’t in control of the market.
If your comment was referring to the builders, I think they can control the market but only in the short-term.
They control the market by putting out false information.
I think the RE people telling sellers to pull their house off the market is only going to help the developers - this will give more time to unload their inventory. Of course over time, the market will self correct but the big builders executives will have already cash-out either through stocks or inflated salaries.
Market in southern NH is fine. It ain’t gonna pop.