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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Foreclosure. Are most mortgages and second mortgages non-recourse loans? If not, will the holders go after the borrower’s paychecks, and what might be the political/social/economic consequences of this? If it varies by state (that’s what I’ve been told so far) what are the rules in California, New York, Florida, Massachusettes, Virginia, DC, Arizona, and other states with bubbles?
Excellent idea. Also, please read article in Wed Mar 1, WSJ (the front page) on the housing equivalent of the repo man.
Ben,
We all know that the terrible loans have been made…We also know that the markets are softening nation wide….Research into the states that allow deficiancy judgements would be interesting…California is one…..
Excellent topic, esp. for CA.
Another RELATED SUBJECT:
Percentage of A.R.M. loans in various cities or areas of the country?. If we could somehow LINK to the data- I think it would blow our minds and be fodder for MAJOR MEDIA outlets to take up the story.
For example, a realtor acquaintance of mine said recently that according to MLS… Santa Barbara has an average of 86 % of the mortgages (obtained FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS) have been A.R.M. loans. After CASH purchases- there was a very small percentage of loans that were standard, 30 yr. FIXED CONVENTIONAL loans!
The BIGGER question: What the F is going to happen when thousands of cities across the nation… also JACKED UP on A.R.M. mortgages- what happens when AMERICA awakens to the new debt caused by these and other EXOTIC loans??
What is your favorite zip code to follow?
92648 downtown huntington beach, lots of speculators and new homes that are dark at night. Inventory is up significantly from last summer.
I closely follow zips 92603,92604.92612,92614 which is a subset
of Irvine, Ca. (Orange County). Activity is currently mixed,
with some sales. However, many properties have been
listed for many months. Some sellers are reducing prices
5% 10%. Other sellers have refused to capitulate.
I have had recent conversations with R/E agents who are now
starting to use phrases such as “priced right” when
listing properties on behalf of sellers.
Lot different posture than last summer when the mantra
from the R/E complex was that “Everyone wants to live
in the O/C”, “Prices can only go up”, etc.
Spring weather is starting to arrive.. This selling season
sure is going to be interesting!
octal, i live in 92606 and i’m seeing the same thing. No major price drops but DOM longer. Inventory steady. The new stuff across the street at the old Tustin Air Base seems to be selling rather quickly. I also noticed these “newer” places in a sub called “Park Lane” near the railroad tracks of Harvard and Irvine Center Drive seem to be selling briskly as well.
I follow 92627, Costa Mesa, CA I see a lot of activity in terms of new signs, changing signs (FSBO to RE), signs disappearing with no “Sold” announcements, and many many open houses. Sitting very very tight until I see mean reversion or more.
I think it would be cool if someone posted a month that shows how long you’ve been better off renting - something I can scribble on my refridgerator door for my wife. For example, I think for Orange County I could post “June 2005″ and then every month it would go backwards as prices fall.
34102….Naples, Fla. Big time speculators about to get burned in one of the most overpriced cities in US
What’s going on in the Naples area? I have a co-worker that bought some condo out there last year. Just curious.
A new way to spread the word. Ideas for housing bubble bumper stickers.
Here are a couple I posted in a previous thread:
“Friends Don’t Let Friends Buy Real Estate”
“Love Your Bubble”
Of course, this blog’s website would be listed at the bottom
Nothing like painting a target on yourself.
I think you would need to have a beater car to avoid vandalism and keying.
SunsetBeachGuy,
Wise advice… but I still like Dreaming 07’s idea’r.
MAYBE we could “paste” them on other people’s cars, so the message still gets out??
How about how tighter credit will doom the housing market?
http://tinyurl.com/ntb2f
Nobility of the Realtor Profession.
Amen brother.
disintermediation
disintermediation
disintermediation
disintermediation
The internet drives disintermediation. Just ask your neighborhood travel agent or read the Economist.
Disintermediation will be a bitch for your friendly realtor lacking basic english skills.
There was an interview with Freakenomics author Steven Levitt on NPR this morning, and the topic was how the internet will increase the pressure on real estate commissions and further disintermediate the industry. Interestingly, one of Steven Levitt’s observations was that areas with higher home prices have a higher concentration of real estate agents, which dilutes the amount of money an agent earns (since there is more competition for listings and buyers).
You can listen to the interview here.
Yep, you are correct. the low barrier to entry causes a flood of newbie real estate agents toward the end of the boom diluting earnings from the people who have chosen RE agent as a true career path.
For all of the power of NAR they haven’t erected the barriers to entry to their profession like Dr., nurses, lawyers, engineers etc.
This observation actually comes from academic research by Eugene Morretti at the Haas Business School. He and a coauthor showed that high commissions are diluted by virtually free entry into the RE market which decreases the number of sales per agent. Levitt did similar work to show why drug dealing is not as lucrative as it is cut out to be…
Guest speaker from SDCIA forum to spice things up, I nominate “Jeff” to come and share his wisdom.
I’m all over 34787. Winter garden, Florida. Right outside Orlando.
Started tracking inventory on Dec. 27, 05 … it was 282.
Now, 2 months later, it is at 408.
I’d like to find out what people will happen at the midway point this year (June 06), and the end of the year (Dec. 31).
Because all the renters are going to be in a rush to buy, and I have a gut feeling, that rush is going to begin sooner, rather than later.
How about posting something on the likelihood that companies in the business of lending for mortgages (exotic and subprime in articular) will be faced with increasing delinquent accounts and foreclousures as the bubble deflates. Maybe there are some company stocks we should be shorting or buying puts for as they are likely to face declinin prices!!
…or my favorite topic in real-estate: “What is the most fitting form of punishment for David Lereah?”
Ahem. This is a family friendly blog. We don’t need to be adding an over-18 section.
If ya wanna sell in this market, drop the price - A LOT! Examples of huge selling price drops…
Here’s an article about the Chicago housing market. Note the North Shore house that was reduced from $9.7 million to $4.2 million.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0603010211mar01,1,3938730.story
Housing markets that defy the downward spiral. In SLC, for example, prices were fairly stagnant until 6 months ago, but are up ~15% since then. Heck, the Realty Times is calling for 30% growth over the next two years “at the very least.” What gives?
If you look at OFHEO data from the last CA bubble collapse, you see evidence that SLC prices climbed while CA prices tanked — possibly related to the great cashout of CA mormons retiring back in SLC???
Not sure, but this is an interesting topic — what markets are likely to keep climbing while CA, FL, MA and NY all tank?
Heck, Vancouver just did +5% in one month from January to February.
This should throw a wrench into any plans for rebuilding New Orleans. My family is from there (Garden District and French Quarter), but I don’t think anybody is going back. Too depressing.
Property owners at present are trying to make a killing off of Katrina, but their efforts may be to no avail.
http://pesn.com/2005/09/23/9600175_Rebuild_Energy_Systems_Not_NewOrleans/
Here is the link that did not take:
http://pesn.com/2005/09/23/9600175_Rebuild_Energy_Systems_Not_NewOrleans/
Trying again:
http://pesn.com/2005/09/23/9600175_Rebuild_Energy_Systems_Not_New Orleans/
http://pesn.com/2005/09/23/9600175_Rebuild_Energy_Systems_Not_NewOrleans/
I hope this takes.
The above link works; the others don’t. Please check out the article on New Orleans (which is sinking) and the futility of trying to rebuild. Thanks.
I don’t see why sinking should stop NO from getting rebuilt. After all, SF and LA are lurching their ways off from the rest of the continent into the North Pacific with a process of periodic large earthquakes, but that does not stop folks from wanting to live there. For all its flaws as an urban environment, NO’s unique culture is deeply imbedded in the American psyche — especially its jazz, its parties, and its cuisine — and the city will come back in some form. I only hope the rebuilding is done in a manner which keeps future generations of residents out of the path of certain destruction in the wake of inevitable Cat 5 storms…
OT-
ZipRealty is broken. It isn’t showing the new listings today that have shown up on other realty sites - also it intermittently says “technical difficulties”.
I wonder if it’s just too many listings to handle. Heh.
I always had the impression that New Orleans was like a sewer, but after reading the above article. YIKES. We can not fight the sea, it will win everytime. Wait until LA and SF sink into the ocean.
The fundamental outlook is really tough in NO, for the following partial list of reasons:
1) The town is bounded by and lies below the level of the Gulf, Lake Pontrachain, and the Mississippi River, all of which are major flooding threats.
2) As the article points out, the disruption of the natural alluvial deposits in the Mississippi Delta abetted by the unnatural removal of mineral deposits from beneath the city results in a continual increase in the risk of inundation;
3) The economic fundamentals which made NO a major shipping outpost during the steamboat era have been declining since 1840 or so;
4) NOAA has predicted a continuation of a long-term increase in the frequency of large magnitude Gulf hurricanes, suggesting that Katrina may soon be repeated;
5) Manmade structures such as Mr. GO have increased the risk of inundation from storm surges;
6) In light of the scattering of the NO diaspora after Katrina and the above fundamental factors which call its economic viability into question, the wealthiest and highest skilled class may have already found niches in safer environs rather than putting themselves into the path of future catastrophes.
Now that I have thought it through, perhaps I should rescind my previous more optimistic post…
Any information on Albuquerque?
Low wages, High Crime, More DUI than you can ever imagine. Rentals inexpensive, Housing compared to average wages way over priced.
I also need to add, I’ve been here one year, which has been about six months too long for me.
Sounds like a great place for Californians to invest, as I am sure the prices are much cheaper there…
Topic:
Making the best of a (potentially) badly timed decision. My wife and I sold out of westside Los Angeles in September 2005, rented a beachhouse in SD and invested the winnings in short term bonds. My wife and I are now expecting our first child in September, and the rental we are in now is not suited for raising a child. We also prefer to move before the baby arrives, because we anticipate being too busy/tired afterwards. Although renting clearly makes more economic sense, for familial reasons and the added sense of permanence, we are going to buy back in to the SD real estate market this summer. We welcome suggestions on “How to maximize our purchase and do the best in a falling market?” I understand the top two responses likely are “don’t buy back in” or “continue renting”, but assuming we have considered those options at length and ultimately determined they don’t serve our needs, what next? My wife is a non-practicing broker with MLS access. I have thought about trying to start a reverse bidding process with multiple sellers whose properties have been on the market for a long time. Something like: whoever cuts us the best deal by a certain date and time, we will buy their house. Any other suggestions, creative or common sense based are really appreciated.
why not rent someplace where you can raise a child? you won’t own the house anyways, you’ll just pay “rent” to the bank. I realize that’s not what you want to hear. what happens if you can’t make the payments because of job loss caused by the housing bubble? you buy a home in 2-3 years at (hopefully)greatly reduced prices for 20-30%(?) below these levels. with the money you save your kid would have more than enough money saved for college by the time he or she is 5, if you invest wisely. on the other side, at least you most likely have lots of equity from your previous home and won’t take on a risky loan.
Kids are expensive. Don’t make the mistake of loosing $100Ks buying overpriced housing at a precarious stage of the business cycle, just to give your wife the false sense of permanence which comes from being a homeowner…
investink, I can understand your desire to settle into a “nest” now before baby arrives. Having your first bambino is very cool - congrats - and very daunting - we all just make it up as we go along - really. And I think out of that unknown we tend to over focus on the kid part and we underrate our ability to handle what the world throws at us. Just ask yourself this? Is it really worth the risk of not only taking on a note for an asset with a high possibility of depreciation in the short to mid term (30% - 50%), but also locking yourself in for higher tax bills for the overvalued property? Is it worth that against what you perceive will be the hardship of renting for N years and then moving when mean reversion has become a reality? I can tell you that moving with a newborn is tough. I know, I moved with a 1 month old from SoCal to Santa Cruz during an El Nino wet period. You end up doing everything while mom tends to Jr. But it is doable and what I learned was that what is worth the cost is to hire professional movers - which I did on the return back to SoCal when Jr. was 1 year old. That is what makes the difference and is worth every penny.
I know I have not given you what you wanted, tips on how to get the best deal in a falling market. Maybe because there is no good way to catch a falling knife.
the only good way to catch falling knife in this situation is bid on these houses 10-20% below asking, or more.
Investink,
Clearly, it is “politically incorrect” to consider purchasing a home in a housing bubble. We all know “theoretically” it is best to wait X years until this thing finally hits rock bottom.
But sometimes, life can’t be lived “idealistically”- and one needs to make decisions that will benefit family in more ways than just financial….
If you and the better half are BENT on purchasing San Diego this summer… my only advice would be to use that MLS access and really study the multitude of homes that meet your needs- pay particular attention to what the seller PAID for the home. As you know, you can do this through the “Address History” feature.
For example, Grandma Jones paid $32k for the home of your dreams back in 1962… and is looking to retire on the money she will get from the sale of the home. Whether she HOLDS OUT for top dollar in a falling market- or just decides to sell it to you for a reduced price- THAT’S POSSIBLE.
On the other hand, DICK + SUZY FLIPPER- who paid $1mil. in the heat of the market back in ‘05… these folk are not going to be “flexible” in hearing LOW BALL offers. They are still stuck in the past and in their FB status.
So, with your wife’s MLS access, you could attempt some LOW BALL offers on homes that were purchased 5 or 10 years ago, where the seller still has equity profit to gain in a stagnant market. Buyers will be much harder to come by, so maybe with a little LUCK- you can score a decent price reduction by signing a low ball deal.
In other words, try to BUY your 10-30% DISCOUNT by finding a willing seller who is still making BANK (because they have owned it so long)… rather than waiting for the MEDIAN PRICE OF A SD HOME to drop by 10 - 30%
THAT, combined with a scrutinizingly wise purchase (i.e. try to find a “forever” house, or at least one that you and your family could live in for a very long time)… because as we know, desirable areas (like San Diego) do come back. CA cycles seem to be 7-10 years lately, so if you could find a “KEEPER” house (NOT a cheap 2bed/1ba that you curse each year, due to lack of space for the family- for example)… you could weather the storm that way. In other words, you could buy the house- grin and bear it through the TANKING years, and eventually you could get out of it at a profit one day (probably 10-12 years from now). should you ever want to sell, move up, etc.
None of this is easy, guaranteed, or even possible… might even be a bit “idealistic”- but just some food for thought!
Investink,
Here’s one of my tips - don’t buy in a newer tract neighborhood. They are much more likely to be loaded with “stepfords” and highly leveraged to keep up with each other. Once a few bail out, you’re stuck, because in tract neighborhoods you are married to the comps, and can’t shake ‘em.
Buy in an older area where the houses are all different, that way if there are a couple of bad sales you have some insulation if they are “apples and oranges”.
You are grappling with the central problem of real estate - many decisions are made by women. There is rarely any logic involved when women are looking to ‘nest’. Don’t fight it, you’re buying a house.
I can help you if you want to be in North SD County (I’m a broker)
Keep an eye on my blog
bubbleinfo.com
A side note on women, and how they think. I told my wife I was going to go for a beer with Get Stucco, and she said, “Are you crazy? Haven’t you heard about myspace?” WTF?
Yes, it was tragic that a kid was killed on the east coast as a result of some deranged idiot on myspace, God rest her soul and bless her family.
But does that mean Get Stucco is going to kill me?
I guess I’m ready for that beer, but I might be packin’ heat….
hey, just noticed your silly comment about ‘decisions by women’, how amusing!
let the wife’s ‘nesting instinct’ manifest itself in getting a nice moderately priced changing table and nursing chair (but don’t get those stupid gliders/rockers…a well-fitting recliner is much better!), a cute cozy special blanket for baby, and happy stroller for walks in the breeze…
and at the very least let her see that comment before you hire this guy to buy you a house lol!
really…seems like a shitty time to buy, dunnit? being fully present for your baby emotionally and psychologically is the best thing you can do, so I guess if you’re sure you’ll be unable to do that unless you’re in debt to a bank rather than a landlord…
good luck!
I guess the beer idea is off…
Jim,
Sorry to be so unusually blunt, but your wife must be a moron. Does she make you pack heat when you meet with new clients?
GS
She’s paranoid more than anything - we have two girls and “you can’t be too careful” she says. I agree, but let’s not overdo it.
I’m all for discussing the current real estate market, either here on Ben’s blog or in person. I learn a lot by examining every angle. I think open discussion is in short supply in today’s ‘cocooning’ society.
Blogging is a way for the dissenters to have a vote. The real estate industry only measures stats on the sales that are happening, and ignores what isn’t happening. Blogs are giving a voice to those that wait.
congrats on the babe!
all you need for a baby to be happy is mom and dad’s arms. Find a rental that you are pretty sure you won’t need to move out of if you don’t want to in the next year or two and enjoy *not* worrying about bloody RE while your baby coos and you adjust to parenthood. Babies don’t need much room, and they don’t need special classicpooh wallpaper. Buy books to read to her and a comfy lazyboy chair plus one of those boppy pillows for mom to have while nursing. Lots of board books…The Very Hungry Caterpillar; Owl Babies, Goodnight Moon… And hold her and carry her a lot. My training is in developmental psychology
cheers!
Shel,
I’ve been looking to get a pyschological evaluation on the market. If we compare the facts today to 8-12 months ago, there isn’t a huge difference. Prices have been flat around here, rates have changed much, etc.
I think the drastic change in the market might be due to a psychological change.
My theory: The growing inventory is what’s different. Is there a direct connection between the inventory expanding, and sales contracting? Do more for-sale signs cause less sales?
I think it must, because that seems to be the only difference.
I’m sure we can add in the ARMs resetting as a cause, but the nationwide market turned on a dime - it has to be bigger than just the resets.
I’d be interested in your thoughts.
Sorry for my ’silly’ post - it was late last night. From my perspective, there are different wants and needs for men and women when it comes to buying a house.
If hyperinflation is coming, should you buy a home right now?
It is not, and you should not…
Iranian oil and the euro - what will it mean to the dollar, to U.S. interest rates?
Just found your site about a week ago.. what a great resource, thank you, thank you, thank you. There seems to be a wealth of knowledge among you so I was hoping I might be able to pick your collective brains. A quick history. We’re in Gilbert Az and last summer we decided to downsize. We managed to get out by the skin on our teeth in November and decided to rent for a little while to see if we began to see any evidence to prove out our hunch about where the local market was headed. Evidence abounds… While we are fortunate enough that the interest from the proceeds of the sale of the house is covering all of our rent, we are really looking forward to having our own place again. Looking forward = ansy. So let the brain picking begin. I realize some of these questions can only be answered with speculation, but I’m hoping that some may have some historical data to back them up.
Any guess (with consideration given to # of ARMs, # of vacant speculator owned homes, unprecedented price run-ups, and internet accessbility) about how long the Phoenix market will take to bottom out?
Do higher priced properties fall further (or quicker) than more moderately priced ones?
And finally, how does a decline typically happen? Are there periods of dips and plateaus, just a big ole’ sustained freefall once it gains momentum or something different all together?
Thanks in advance for any opinions, advice or wisdom sent our way.
Congratulations on getting out in time! Now…WHY, WHY, WHY would you want to buy a place when your interest income is covering your rent?????
One thing you’ll learn here, is very few of us think this is going to be a “mild” bubble burst. Most here will tell you to rent, esp in your circumstances.
Since we have not had a similar bubble before, we cannot really guess as to how it will end (long, fast, sharp, etc.). What we will tell you is that we’ve never had this kind of speculation and use of suicide loans since about….oh, 1929. I’m sure that year will ring a bell.
FWIW, if you want to buy a home now, expect to lose anywhere from 30% to 60% for a number of very long years. Housing cycles are not short, and this one is likely to be longer than most due to the extreme leverage and ARM resetting being spread out over 10 years or so. Don’t forget many Boomers will likely sell out so they can fund their retirements. You might not see your purchase price for decades, IMHO. We might be heading for a long, long deflationary period. Best to keep a hold of that cash of yours, IMHO.
Best of luck to you!
Other sectors which will be affected by the bubble bursting…
Of note, here’s a quote from today’s news about another round of discounting by American auto makers coming soon to a showroom near you:
“Automakers do not reveal how much they spend on such discounts, but outside analysts closely track available estimates because the size of the incentives indicate how urgently the manufacturers need to move unsold inventory.”
Hmmm… I like that last part, apply the same logic to the discounts on new build we’ve been seeing and I see trouble for HB but that’s just the obvious. Who else will see significant slowdown? Which sectors may be immune?
Not investment advice!
Here’s an idea. We all know what zero coupon bonds are, right? How about a zero-coupon house? (or mortgage?)
So, Homeowner Harry buys their house, and then sells the “bubble” rights to Speculator Sally. When the house is sold, a sum equal to the original purchase price goes to Harry, and the balance goes to Sally.
Would this be a way of keeping speculators out of the way of normal Joe’s that just want to own a home?
Will the conundrum end soon, now that the man who brought it to light has retired, and if so, how will it resolve?
- Recession, falling commodities and housing prices, a la Volcker circa 1980?
- Continued skyrocketing asset price inflation (houses, gold, oil) a la Miller circa 1979?
- Hyperinflation as in the Weimar Republic circa1920?
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation)
- Something unprecedented?
Does Fannie pose systemic risk or doesn’t it? The WSJ tackles this difficult empirical question here:
http://tinyurl.com/h57wj
“TRADING SHOTS
Debate Over Fannie, Freddie
Takes Place in the Extremes
By MARK GONGLOFF
March 3, 2006
Supporters of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac say that cutting their massive mortgage portfolios would doom the housing market. Critics say those same portfolios create the risk of an LTCM-style meltdown that would doom financial markets.
They could both be wrong: The housing market continued to thrive last year even as the costs of rising interest rates outpaced the benefits Fannie and Freddie offered to homebuyers. And those rising rates didn’t pull the bottom peg out of their seemingly Jenga-like portfolios.”
My big question for Mark: How can we say anything about the effect of those rising rates on Fannie’s portfolio if they have no financial reports to provide as evidence?
what does the unwinding yen-carry trade mean for housing and interest rates?
I’d like to see a thread dedicated to those caught in transition.. They,ve moved and their last house lingers on the market and their left with two mortgages. I know lot’s of people on this blog have direct experience with this. I’d like to delve into the psyche of the non-speculator unintentional participant.
Think collateral damage…
It might be valuable if readers who are looking for particular advice regarding a particular situation could submit a question and if selected, have it posted so others could respond with posts.
Here’s my question.
I’m in the process of listing my townhome for sale. It’s located between DC, Baltimore and Annapolis. Anyway, I’m really scared about the overall market but do not feel like the general public has caught on yet. I should attribute much of my knowledge to this blog.
Any suggestions for selling this thing fast aside from dropping price??
I was hoping you would look into the Reno market. Reno has 5100 houses for sale, including 1800 new listings in Jan 06. Only 500 homes sold in Jan 06 and the Reno Gazette/Ostrich has decided to report little on the home bust here. Considering that Reno has only 450,000 people this bubble could be of epic proportions. Reno is far more expensive than Las Vegas.
Ben,
Here is the link to a very cool and telling article in the San Francisco Bay Area’s East Bay Express publication. A friend (and fellow bear) pointed it out to me last week. The jest of the article is about “unmarrieds” buying houses together *before* or *instead of* getting married. Of course, there is no rule that says you MUST get married in order to do this, but the article also presented both the pros and cons of such a move, as well as how the current real estate market affects their decisions.
Article title: The Adjustable-Rate Marriage
http://www.eastbayexpress.com/Issues/2006-02-22/news/feature.html
BayQT~
todays kingman daily minor,rhodes homes wants to build 650 unit apartment complex in golden valley. the reason is to house the workers that are going to build the 33,000 homes in golden valley. like kingman needs more housing, 100s of new homes empty now and the min wage jobs in kingman the workers here cannot affort to rent ,never mind buy.
33,000 more new homes in Kingman? My gosh, what are those people going to do to work? There is not anything there to support that number of people. And it already looks like a whole slew of McMansions have been built right next to the freeway. While I drove through last week, all of the trees around Flagstaff were looking pretty dry. If they catch fire, then Kingman can rescue all of the displaced folks. Or is it for still displaced Katrina victims? There is plenty of land to park a trailer. Violla, no houisng payment.
I hope I am not late replying to this thread…
Endangered Species: The Boston-Minneapolis Hypothesis
This would be a good article to debate