December 24, 2006

Topics For “The Night Before Christmas”

A composite of three related topic suggestions. “What Christmas gift would you get for you neighborhood realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser or any other related industry member?”

A reply, “How about a framed picture of a bird: Particularly, a vulture.”

Another added, “2006 edition - What Color is your Parchute?”

The second suggestion, “Here’s one: ‘If you have a message for David Lereah, what would it be?’”

One said, “Just how many Florida condos are you underwater on?”

Another produced this, “A Visit from St. Lereah (The Patron Saint of Spring Bounce).” ‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the (open) house,

Not a GF was bidding, not even a louse(lo-ball);

The twirlers were assigned to their corners with care, In hopes that St. Lereah could find his way there.

The children were nestled all snug in their beds, While visions of Plasmas-games danced in their heads;

And mamma with her statue, and I in my cap, Had just settled down for a big equity slap, When out by the Hummer there arose such a clatter, I hoped it was Ben, dropping helicopter matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash, It was stuck, wouldn’t open, damn subcontractor trash!

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow Gave a luster of mid-day to the FSBO signs below, When, what to my wondering eyes should appear, But a miniature intellect, and eight purveyors of cheer.

With a little old driver, in an S U V from KIA, I knew in a moment it must be St. Lereah. Louder than a train wreck, his cheerleaders they cried,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them with pride;

‘Now, James! now, Donald! now, Alan and Cramer! On, Suzanne! on, Ben! on Kendra and Disclaimer! To the top of the chart! to the top of them all! Now REFI away! REFI away! REFI away all!’

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly, When they meet with an assessment, that mounts to the sky; So up to the house-flop, the cheerleaders they drew, With an van full of tricks, and St. Lereah too.

As I drew back my head, and was turning around, From the kitchen there came, Suzanne with a bound. She was dressed only in fur, from her neck to her waist, And her teddy was all tarnished, with flour and paste; A pan of warm cupcakes, she presented with glee, In addition I can offer, ‘Coffee, tea or me?’

In front of a mirror, the Trump man he stood, Counting each of his hairs…whatever the good (that is)…??? And Alan and Ben, discussed rather deliriously, The merits of taking, the Euro more seriously. The talented Kendra performed like a true busker, Buying properties galore, in a state next to Corn Husker.

The stock choices of Cramer truly did astound,But he researched them quite thoroughly, and deemed them all sound. He ranted and raved, then proclaimed with a thump; “These Builders on the DOW are ready to jump! Pulte Homes and Toll Bros, I give them full support.”

Privately of course, he was selling them all short. The other two shills worked as a fine team, Polishing granite and stainless, to an unnecessary gleam. The boss man himself, tackled the Big Trouble. It was his job to spin away, the Existence of a Bubble.

On TV he spoke with a confidence, so assured, He made the difference between debt, and savings, seem blurred. The old standbys he quoted, left, right and center, Like, ‘It’s different here now.’ and ‘Don’t be a renter.’

A press release he issued, based on reason so scant, I’m sure it would embarrass, old Immanuel Kant. A flask of straight Kool-Aid, he finished in one chug; Declared ‘Mission Accomplished,’ then ranted so smug, ‘The Oracle of Omaha has nothing on me, The California Orifice…Second quarter, you’ll see.’

Then laying his fingers aside of his toes, Up the lower extremity of his digestive tract, he rose; He hovered a moment, then to his team gave a whistle, Then away they all drove like the down of a thistle. But I could hear him profane, and too frequently announce; ‘St. Lereah to all, and to all a Spring Bounce.’

And a more serious suggestion, “Considering the ‘potential fallout’ that many here predict, a great discussion could go like this. You’ve just been assigned the most powerful position in the United States, your decisions will become effective immediately - would you lower/raise rates (reasons why). Would you bail out homeowners or let them hang out in the wind. The list goes on.”

A reply, “Raise interest rates to: 17.211 % for a 30 year fixed loan. It would put to an end… the question about who can afford a house based on their income among other things.”

Another said, “Disband the ‘Federal Reserve,’ and go back on the gold standard at whatever gold price it would take to pay off all the outstanding ‘Federal Reserve Notes.’ These steps would make the rest of the issues fade into the background.”

One was specific. “Raise FFR to 6%. Announce that we will be major inflation hawks, and that the ‘govt numbers’ will correlate with what REAL people see in REAL life. No more hedonics, substitutions, ‘core’ rates, etc. Housing (50/50 mortgage/rent), healthcare, education, food, water, & utilities will the the primary costs factored in the new CPI numbers. Stop printing money.”

“Fine anyone with a licence (RE broker, mortgage broker, stock broker, etc.) who knowingly lies or tries to conceal the truth if the truth is relevant to those in his/her audience. Take away the licence of those who violate the ‘honesty’ law more than three times in a 10-year period.”

“Let the FBs twist in the wind, and the mortgage lenders with them. No bailouts for anyone. Fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”




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69 Comments »

Comment by Dan
2006-12-24 11:43:58

That is GREAT!

Merry Christmas to Ben and all the folks here at Housing Bubble……

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2006-12-24 12:09:36

“Money is the root of all evil”…quoted by: pick one

“Lack of money is the root of all evil.” I forget…either George Bernard Shaw or Ben Shalom Bernanke

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2006-12-24 12:22:23

Ms. Santa put a Mega Lotto ticket in my stocking…If it’s the millions $$$$$ winner, I promise all the bloggers here that I will not use the winnings to buy a house in the spring of 2007. However, anyone know what a fair market value is for a Gourmet Dog Biscuit franchise is going for these days? I’d like to open one up in Scripps Ranch, San Diego ;-)

 
Comment by Wheatie
2006-12-24 12:22:39

The correct biblical reference says, “The LOVE of money is the root of all evil.”

Makes a big difference.

Comment by DAVID
2006-12-24 12:24:33

Kill the first male born of every realtor and subprime loan officer.

Maybe a little extreme, but it worked for Moses.

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Comment by diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2006-12-24 12:34:45

Actually, it was Pharoah that ordered the killing of all the first-born of the House of Israel.

 
Comment by anon
2006-12-24 12:54:15

And then God killed the first-born Egpytians. So everybody got in on the fun.

 
Comment by nickthewizard
2006-12-24 21:46:57

Religion is the root of all evil.
or Misuse of religion is the root of all evil.
or Mistaking religion for God is the root of all evil.
or Claiming one’s religion to be the one true religion is the root of all evil.
or Trying to convert everyone else to your religion is the root of all evil.
merry christmas everyone.

 
Comment by mbaindm
2006-12-24 21:47:07

This may be overly picky but, here was no nation of Israel in Exodus. Israel was given to the Jews after they left Egypt. Exodus is the transition book where the children of Jacob go from being a familiy, to a tribe, to a nation.

 
Comment by B. Durbin
2006-12-25 21:14:58

Well, Jacob WAS Israel— his name got changed late in life. So his descendants were, technically, “the House of Israel.”

 
 
 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-12-24 16:21:20

Well I prefer the swedish proverb. It’s more subtle.

“The Devil comes when there is not enough money, and it comes back also whem there is too much money.”

Thus the bubble and then the bust. The Devil just like these bubbles and busts. He thrives on them.

Money is not the root of all evil. Too much of a good thing or not enough of it, is bad for the soul and your health. Money is not bad it’s the stupid morons that get their hands on it or print it at the FED!

 
 
Comment by bottomfeeder1
2006-12-24 16:54:34

Merry xmas ben keep bloggin my man!

 
 
Comment by anon
2006-12-24 12:08:27

Re: gifts for those in the industry - how about one of these t-shirts? This seems very reminiscent of the pets.com sock puppet.

Comment by IL_NC_IN_CA
2006-12-24 16:12:37

Are you folks really sure the bubble’s as bad as you think? It may just be that all the folks who couldn’t afford a house earlier are going to be thrown back out of the houses they’ve recently bought. The rest may just shuffle along with business as usual (except for the more adventurous who speculated with 2nd homes - but they’d have gambled on the stock market or something else anyway).

The reason I wonder about this is because of the following:

In the last 25 years, the least people spent on their mortgage was about 8% of their gross income. It’s now 11%. While this is certainly higher, it doesn’t seem enough to break the bank for most.

See:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm

Comment by anon
2006-12-24 17:38:00

Well, interest rates are also still near historical lows. When they rise, so will mortgage servicing costs as a percentage of incomes for those with ARMs.

 
Comment by Suspicious 2
2006-12-24 17:57:24

Yes but unlike 25 years ago; people have no to little savings (and very high debt), the GOV is running massive deficts, the US manufacturing industry is toast, 2 wars to feed (with more on the way?), toxic loans accounted for over 50% or more of the sales in the biggest bubble areas the last two years, with alot of the adjustables coming due in ‘07 & ‘08 !!!

I’m sure I left a few things out.

 
Comment by WAman
2006-12-25 05:23:16

“It may just be that all the folks who couldn’t afford a house earlier are going to be thrown back out of the houses they’ve recently bought”.

So if one looks at the average number of home owners in the US from historic times to the year 2000 it shows that about 63% of people own homes. In 2004 the U.S. Census Bureau said that the number of people who owned homes was 69% and many now believe it is over 70%. So if 7% of the 300 million of us lose our homes I am not sure that I want to see 21 million homes in foreclosure dragging down the value of all of the other homes.

 
 
Comment by Eastofwest
2006-12-24 20:43:23

or how about an award if you bought in Stockton, Ca. in the past few years…A you’re #1 shirt. “Best place to lose equity in 2007″
Hurray for you….oh yeh, Merry Christmas. ,or maybe as D. Lereah
would say: eternally hopeful optimism in a negatively appreciating asset.

http://tinyurl.com/yd59y7

 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2006-12-24 12:25:11

Merry Christmas to one and all
And remember this.
There is no better time to buy. Whether it is a home, a new TV, a coffin, new car, food, clothes, a washer/dryer, diamond for your wife or girl friend, a new kitchen, a trip to Cancun, a new computer or a place in heaven by just giving.
Do anything to separate yourself from your money by giving it to sellers, agents, salespeople, travel agents, friends, relatives or to those who have less. Just give your money to someone else. And when all your money is gone. Good luck to you!

Comment by lefantome
2006-12-24 12:38:20

Yeah, but we all should put a little something in Ben’s stocking …. I for one have gotten a pretty good return on this investment. Merry Christmas to all.

(ps, that other “Ben” gets coal…. :) )

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2006-12-24 12:41:09

Well… your comment gives me pause. I was going to buy a celestial Star for $35.95 and name it for my sister Colleen. I figured it was something that would last for a really long time. Damn, this last minute shopping is too stressful. Where’s the scotch?

 
Comment by pismobear
2006-12-24 14:10:52

When your money is gone - Refi or HELOC. hehehehehehehe

Comment by Marc Authier
2006-12-24 16:29:09

Ho Ho Ho! Santa Claus Bernanké is coming from the chimney with all his nice presents in his bags.

Ho ho ho! Look at the nice Christmans stocking filled with higher interest rates that Santa-Bernanké has put near the Chistmas tree !

Ho! Ho! Ho! Serves you right to think that money grows in trees. Well it does but only for Goldman Sachs boys. Santa-Alan and Santa-Bernanké are always nice with the Rubin boys and the Paulson boys. Ho! Ho! Ho! Santa works for the paper shufflers.

 
 
 
Comment by Kevin Road
2006-12-24 13:00:52

you can’t even drive in the DC metro area. All the gluts are pulled over loading their cars with consumer traps. Don’t be a victim of too much consumption. You can always Refi after the first of the year…

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-12-24 13:11:59

Speaking of a lump of coal in the stocking . . . .

Casey’s Ad Sense account got disabled for click fraud. He’s whining big time about “needing that money” Oh the humanity . . . . the sleazy little sociopath may have to actually work!

Comment by badger boy
2006-12-24 13:29:10

well, seeing that made my christmas merry :-)

my xmas present for next year will be casey in handcuffs :-)
I may even send his cellmate viagra… just to be sure casey gets the “full” prison experience. :-) :-)

Comment by landedeal2
2006-12-24 19:29:51

HO HO HO
your shoot your eye out Kid!!!!!!

 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 13:39:34

Someone posted this on my blog - I guess its there way of wishing me a Merry Christmas:

Stop wishing failure upon others, go become a photographer if u want to live the paparazzi lifestyle if you worked as hard on taking pictures as you do on these blogs, u might one day become successful yourselves. Keyword: MIGHT

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 13:40:56

*their

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-12-24 14:12:10

I’d say that’s an FB wearing 2-3 Bakersfield “investment” houses like a heavy noose around the old neck.

MC Crispy.

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 14:20:48

I checked his IP Address and he/she is from Bakersfield. I would bet they are looking for a GF and can’t find one and they are now looking for someone to blame…

Comment by lefantome
2006-12-24 14:32:16

Send them a box of St. Joseph statues for Christmas …it’s the gift that keeps on givin’ all year ….and next year, and the next …..

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Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-12-24 20:03:36

Make sure it’s the 8″ model.

 
 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2006-12-24 15:35:16

Send them a Bakersfield City welcome basket:

1 quart of Mobil 30 W motor oil
1 lb bag of baby peeled carrots
10 oz jar of Ortho Malathion pesticide

Bakersfield,
Oil, carrots and pesticide dust.

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 15:44:50

LMAO

 
 
Comment by SD_suntaxed
2006-12-24 17:48:11

What’s wishing got to do with this kind of failure?

It’s a fact that the current owners of the places you have posted about have been financially foolish. The only wishing going on is in the current prices and for a miraculous appearance of a buyers.

It’s happening right now. It has reared it’s ugly head in this guy’s back yard. You’ve proved it and he doesn’t want to see it. He’s probably sweating the payments on his jacked up King Ranch dual cab tandem axled chrome package mantruck with spinner rims and the whole cow sized BBQ that came out of his home equity, along with 3 other depreciating houses and his wife’s boob job. :roll:

Comment by SD_suntaxed
2006-12-24 17:53:59

Appearance of buyers, that is.

Also forgot to quote.
“Stop wishing failure upon others…”

Too tired.

Comment by lefantome
2006-12-24 18:03:02

That was a nice “smack down”, and on Christmas Eve.

God bless you, every one ….

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Comment by ahansen
2006-12-24 14:20:23

Best doggerel of the year! Who wrote this wonderful piece?

Thanks so much for sharing this, Ben. And a merry new year to you!

ahansen

 
Comment by Portland Mainer
2006-12-24 14:43:00

Merry Christmas everyone.

 
Comment by hd74man
2006-12-24 14:44:24

“Let the FBs twist in the wind, and the mortgage lenders with them. No bailouts for anyone. Fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

Not gonna happen…

Mazzholeland legislator’s are already taking about tax monies being allocated to bring FB’ers up to date on their current mortgages plus more government guarantee loan programs, compensated by some elevated BS disclosure requirements for sleazebag mortgage O’s.

The politco’s are totally feeding off the general public ignorance and greed.

Nobody gets it.

US democracy is dead.

Comment by az_lender
2006-12-24 15:14:33

That is amazing (public money to bring FB’s up to date on their mortgages). Forty years ago, most persons in the Boston area were tenants, so the use of tax money to support homedebtors would’ve been highly unpopular. Has everything been condo-ized, or are people just not paying attention to the legislature’s intentions?

 
Comment by Suspicious 2
2006-12-24 18:13:05

The public money will go, like it always has gone, to the Banks to bail them out. Not the FB’s.

Remember, Continental Bank, the S&L bailouts, mexican peso collapse, Japanese Bank (bad) loans, etc.

Comment by ca renter
2006-12-24 23:58:02

The lenders deserve a smack-down even more than the FBs. FBs can feign ignorance. The lenders should have known better — and DID know better, IMHO.

HD, I sure hope this is just fuzzy-talk. It’s stuff like this that makes me want to leave the U.S. (or, perhaps, we should all become speculators, too). Please keep us updated on the outcome.

 
 
 
Comment by anon
2006-12-24 14:58:11

Quote: A Visit from St. Lereah (The Patron Saint of Spring Bounce).

Can we bury this St. Lereah upside down in our yard?

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 14:59:12

Another one bites the dust:

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com

Comment by ca renter
2006-12-25 00:04:13

Good news, crispy. Thanks for the info!

Merry Christmas!! :)

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 15:16:00

Mortgage Brokers Chirstmas poem:

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogpsot.com

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 15:17:14
 
 
 
Comment by Marc Authier
2006-12-24 16:33:46

60$ for a 15 pound turkey. Now that’s not inflation ?

Comment by Jay_Huhman
2006-12-24 18:47:17

Where did you buy $4.00 per pound turkey?
Caputo’s in Elmwood Park, IL had stuffed Butterballs at $0.89/lb and Dominick’s in Oak Park, IL had frozen Butterballs at $0.99/lb and fresh store brand ones at $1.29.

Comment by dba
2006-12-24 20:01:24

Plainville turkeys at Whole Foods are around $4 or $5 a pound

worth every penny too

 
 
 
Comment by imploder
2006-12-24 17:08:00

Gary Watts as Santa says: Ho, Ho, Ho and Merry Christmas! Guess what’s in the Bag!

Comment by Mo Money
2006-12-24 17:50:41

A Subpoena ?

Comment by mgnyc
2006-12-25 08:21:59

mo money that was funny
merry x-mas everyone

 
 
Comment by AE Newman
2006-12-24 17:54:31

posted “Guess what’s in the Bag!”

A big turd.

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-12-24 19:49:07

His Head? Oh, I thought you asked what was is his a$$.

 
Comment by luvs_footie
2006-12-24 21:59:53

“Sasquatch droppings” of course

 
 
Comment by SD_suntaxed
2006-12-24 18:03:51

“What Christmas gift would you get for you neighborhood realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser or any other related industry member?”

A tiny battery operated violin which plays “My Heart Bleeds for You.”

A billboard with a digital display showing how much the median home in SD is losing each day, as a contrast to the newspaper articles of 2 years ago which stated how much houses were going up each day.

An attractive cardboard sign saying “Will Refi/Flip/Remodel for food.”

Comment by SD_suntaxed
2006-12-24 18:46:29

Clarification-

This list is for the figures in these fields who would knowingly mislead or defraud someone for their own personal gain and laugh about it.

 
 
Comment by ICU
2006-12-24 19:39:58

Happy Holidays!

I wish everyone the strength of patience as this RE unwinding will take some time to return to middleclass fundamentals.

 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-12-24 20:11:59

MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL! Hats off to Ben!!

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-12-24 21:22:47

I second bottomfisherman’s wish.

 
Comment by bradthemod
2006-12-24 22:31:12

Can it get any better in 2007:

http://tinyurl.com/y6mwng

 
Comment by Marc
2006-12-24 22:53:19

There are pessimists and optimists… the pessimists say: We’re so much in deep $hit that it can’t possibly get worst…

The optimist say: YES IT CAN!!! YES IT CAN!!!

Comment by Betamax
2006-12-24 23:48:41

Funny stuff - though I maintain that my desire to see this massive credit bubble pop and the greedy get burned is entirely optimistic.

Merry Christmas to all!

 
 
Comment by AnonyRuss
2006-12-24 23:47:46

I was at a Christmas Eve gathering at a cousin’s house in the Phoenix suburbs. He bought his current place in July, and had his previous house for sale since February. After finally capitulating and dropping the price to about 20% below the peak, he managed to complete a sale two weeks ago. Having bought in ‘03, he walked away with a decent sum, and so was now pushing his sister into planning to sell next Summer since she will be reaching that magical 2 year mark. I am not normally shy on the subject, and several others there whom I see more often knew my thoughts. But I did not say a word this time. What he does not understand is that his sister, who lives in an area where I track prices closely, is already underwater. By Summer 2007, she will be unable to sell without bringing a substantial sum to the table.

The same cousin also bragged about his realtor friend who just bought 4 new houses in nearby Peoria, AZ, using the 10% commissions to justify buying. This realtor could not sell his own overpriced McMansion personal residence and recently took it off the market after 7 months. I was going to pipe in and say something about the huge commissions being indicative of an increasingly weak market. But I just smiled and will let him learn on his own. I will warn his sister the next time that I see her to sell before buying anything else. The downfall of the realtor, Mark, who now “owns” 7 Metro Phoenix houses (all with 100% financing according to county records-5 of them purchased in 2006), should be a great example (of what not to do) for my would-be flipper cousins.

Comment by mgnyc
2006-12-25 08:34:18

well at last night’s x-mas family gathering the wife swore me to silence if the B word came up.
well i was good but the few people wanted my observations
on the current situation and i told them i am certainly not buying anything this year (07) and they did not seem to disagree with my stance
my wife’s cousin has been trying to unload his house in a nice suburb of jersey (no flipper just a divorce, bought in 01 with conventional 20%)wel he has a buyer and we were all praying for the close, around 1/15 is the date
i asked him how much he has had to discount from original asking price, after all it has been on the market a solid year and change. 15-20% was the answer and he is really hoping this does close as do i he is a nice guy and was planning on staying except as we all know very well s##% happens

 
 
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