Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For December 27, 2006
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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manufacturing to slow- what do we make in USA ?
housing components for one, and on the transfer side of the economy or “fake” economy military equipment- also slowing
We make Vermont Teddy Bears and Toyota Tundras
The little Red Radio Flyer wagon and Schwinn bicycles, oh… forgot, imported items now. ;-(
airplanes and weapons
I heard the gyros for our cruise missles are now made in china.Is that true?talk about screwed if we have war with china.
New Balance sneakers are made in America.
Some of ‘em anyway. I wear the 587s myself.
I bought a pair of Lucky jeans yesterday - I was sold when I saw the “Made in America” sticker. Let’s hope they last.
My oldest pair of Lucky Jeans is about 3 years old now and is starting to show some signs of wear. I figure they’ll be too worn to wear sometime later this year, but that’s not a bad lifespan for frequently-worn pants.
I love that brand. If they weren’t so expensive I’d have a lot more of their pants.
Some of the “Made in America” clothing is actually produced in the Mariana Islands and other third-world sweatshops that are technically US territories, but aren’t subject to US labor laws. It still qualifies for the “Made in America” label. Buyer beware if you care about such things.
Proud Chaco sandal wearer here…
Made in the USA
debt for others to buy.
Jansport backpacks…made by state prisoners in Washington state!
Plastic Pink Flamingo’s for the yard…until Jan 1st of 2007, I think.
Rich ringing in the new year in S. FL:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/state/content/state/epaper/2006/12/26/m1a_newlaws_1226.html?imw=Y
I am all for tax cuts in S. FL. But this tax cut (FL wide) only effects the wealthiest 2% of people in FL, and is big money off the tax rolls of the state. As if the rich are not already getting a huge enough benefit from SOH! When your rich, you can very easily “adjust” the selling price of your home (500K for the house, another 500K under the table, volia, I am now taxed on 1/2 the value of my nice 1M dollar home). The rich definately benefit disproporially from the middle class from SOH, now they get another one.
If the tax cuts were really intended to stimulate US business (and not just line the pockets of the rich) they could always put a tax deduction/rebate on US investments, and a tax penalty on offshore investments. Think that’ll ever happen? LOL.
I hate to tell you this - but we all work for the rich (even gov’t worker do in effect.) If the rich have more money via, they buy more AND invest more - much more productive than tax cuts for lower middle class - who primarily only buy more. Deride it as trickle down, but that is the way capitalism works.
Just to take another point on this rich bash thing, If you have only the top percentage with enough disposable income to buy lasz-fair things not needed in daily life, what kind of economy will you have?
Will apple be happy with only selling I pods to the top 5 percent?
My complaint with the economy is there has been no trickle down, increases in real wages are nowhere, the economy has been driven by debit.
As for the rich driving investing in companies? Please. Does GE or Microsoft need investor moneys to bring in the next big thing to drive the economy? I think not.
This “theory” that if you cut taxes enough to incentivize the wealthy to spend is truly laughable. How many times in history have we seen the moneyed interests get taken out in the most painful way because the buying power concentrated in a few hands? I have to believe that the proponents of unbridled capitalism are truly socialists under that facade of silly capitalist rhetoric or just plain uneducated.
Absolutly !!
In fact under the famous Reagan trickle down, 15,000 companies took thier tax breaks and left the country.
At best, we have predatory capitisim in this country. Workers and consumers beware.
I agree with the Captian, what we really have is socialism for the rich.
We all were taught, if we work hard we will suceede. After WWII this was true to a large dergee. But it has been harder and harder to succeed since 1972, where real wages peaked in this country. Now it’s at a point just like it was in the 1930’s (for some) where you can work real hard and still be poor. One of the great acomplishments of the working classes was to get the wealthy class to pay RETIREMENT benefits. This my friends, is in jeopardy.
We all should be thinking a self sustainable retirement. And of course, housing is a big part of that.
Why, not counting envy, should taxes be based on income?
I hate to tell you this, but the wealthy class don’t pay retirement. Those making under ~$90k do….it’s called Social Security.
I meant that in a loose sence. Coporations used to contribute more to your retirement through payroll contributions and retirement acounts. Now most are using matching up to $1000/yr 401k’s. Corporate BK’s are increasingly dumping the responsibility for retirement on the taxpayers.
“wealthy class don’t pay retirement”
If they don’t pay taxes.
“If you have only the top percentage with enough disposable income to buy lasz-fair things not needed in daily life, what kind of economy will you have?”
1930s again
Buddy I agree, we have learned from the past but this is a new bed being made and the sheets just are not laying right to make it smooth.
But this will be a hybrid of the 1930s and the 1970s. It will be an inflationary econo-disaster. And it will start in January. Stay tuned!
10-4
most Americans pay little fed income tax- tax away the rich to
Abaco ?
No, but are today’s executives “worth” 10, 20 or now 300- 500 times the wage on the floor… Do companies need 3 jets to fly executives to 3 areas, 2 are for golf, and write it all off tax’s?
My take on some of the Rich’s pay is this, many, many of these clowns come into a company already with fixed assets and products, My heroes would be the bill gates, Warren Buffets who “built” there companies from scratch and had something in the game.
Builderboy, there’s nothing except a lot of smart, hard work preventing you from joining the ranks of the rich.
If that were actually the truth, why aren’t you a part of the ranks?
Horatio Alger must die.
Builderboy, there’s nothing except a lot of smart, hard work preventing you from joining the ranks of the rich.
Bill, I agree with that up to a point, and to add we already are in the top 1 percent of wage earnings.
Take your typical Doctor [MD] today, a lot of hard work went into him or her getting to that stage, but from what I hear, Doc’s don’t make anything near what the ex’s at the HMO’s make.
Please excuse if I do not articulate this well, but my point is with the jr. playa’s in the game. Making well above the top 1 percent.
So it is not a certain amount of income you want to tax so much as income not “earned” with the appropriate amount of elbow grease?
Should we tax productivity (the workers) or passive income (which is ultimately used to make the rich even richer)?
The wealthiest in this country don’t really have to work. These people have don’t work for money, money works for them. And where, pray tell, do you think that money is coming from, waaahoo? It is coming from the workers and going to the pockets of the wealthiest who control global money flows.
We need to tax income (esp passive income, IMHO) because if we don’t, we will get a country which looks awfully similar to Mexico — a handful of rich, with the masses living in poverty and committing crimes just to survive.
The best situation, IMHO, is when the greatest amount of money is circulating among the greatest number of people. It’s what keeps the economy moving. When the masses are tapped out, what happens to the demand for goods and services?
You’re right CA renter. The government should tax renters who are just letting their money passively sit, and give it to FBs who have their money out there working and circulating so we can keep the economy moving.
“Voodoo Economics” - George H. W. Bush
“To take from one, because it is thought his own industry and that of his fathers has acquired too much, in order to spare to others, who, or whose fathers, have not exercised equal industry and skill, is to violate arbitrarily the first principle of association, the guarantee to everyone the free exercise of his industry and the fruits acquired by it.” - Thomas Jefferson
This is an interesting post, as I had always thought that Jefferson was the chief proponent of the estate tax so that America would not have the dynastic families of the Old World.
NO that’s the way ‘corporatism’ works. Capitalism is owning your own business.
Amazing that so many think that the goverment should always tax “other” people.
Did it the concept ever cross your mind that if the govt. doesn’t tax them, they will tax you instead?
Prolly not.
I don’t want the government to tax anyone.
can’t be the “greatest country in the world” without taxes, natch, unless you want to live in a libertarian paradise like Somalia.
Somali Anarchy Is More Orderly than Somali Government
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1880
This refutes your ignorant state-worship.
I don’t want to go to work, get old, get sick, get speeding tickets, pay for my childrens education, bury my parents etc etc etc.
So are you willing to give up national defence, clean water, a means to flush the toilet, streetlights, garbage removal, asphalt paved roadways so you can get your wish that govt. stop taxing?
I’d start by defunding the war on drugs in exchange for not getting any more speeding tickets. That’s about a big a win-win scenario as I can think of.
Let’s not forget the biggest “welfare queen” of them all W-A-R. Pentagon, troops in 150+/- countries, worthless pie-in-the-sky weapons systems boondoggles and…oh yeah, IRAQ invasion/occupation/quagmire/monkey hole.
Let them eat defense contracts.
Bingo. Great place to start. Drugs and Speeding? Where are the injured parties in those “crimes”?
Drugs and Speeding? Where are the injured parties in those “crimes”?
Drugs–as long as you get them off the street corners, where rivals gang shoot it out, fine. Sell the stuff in drug stores,just like cigarettes, and let the gov’t take a cut.
Speeding–different story–these are the jerks who kill pedestrians and cause most of the crashes–no mercy for these scumbags.
Yes Spike. After someone has been hit there is an injured party. That is when the law should be applied with appropriate penalties that would discourage others.
But not before. Ticketing speeders is just another step towards a real Pre-Crime system.
I get so sick of hearing that bullsh!t arguement that drugs don’t hurt anyone. I have spent years volenteering at children’s homes and have seen so many suffering kids because of drugs. There are millions & millions of kids in foster homes and children’s homes because their parents were addicted to drugs. I have seen an 8 year-old girl who was pimped out by her mother to help support her crack habit, a 14 year-old boy that weighted 60 pounds because his parents used all the money they could get on drugs instead of feeding him. Spend a day at any NICU unit at any hospital in the country and see how many newborns are fighting for their lives while they detox, because their mom could give up the drugs for just 9 months. Then when they survive, the get the joy of a lifetime of mental and physical disabilities because of the drugs damage while they were in the womb. I really hate that selfish & arrogant argument that you can live your life in such isolation. (soapbox off)
DC in LBV,
Those examples you give are examples of child abuse.
For the record, I am not a drug user of any kind, and I’m all for harsher child abuse penalties.
But do you understand that the reason someone has to pimp their child out to buy drugs is that by making them illegal we have made them prohibitively expensive?
So then you agree that we should outlaw alcohol based on those criteria?
How many of those terrible things might not have happened if instead of having to obtain drugs illegally, they were heavily taxed with all revinue mandatorily going towards free treatment centers?
I hate it even more when selfish and arrogant nanny state proponents like you presume to tell the rest of us what we should or shouldn’t put into our own bodies. It supposed to be a free country. If you can’t live with some people abusing that freedom, move somewhere like Iran.
For example, people are free to pay ridiculous prices for houses. Just don’t expect my tax dollars to bail you out of your stupid neg-am mortgage.
Hey, it’s a housing blog right?
“If life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness doesn’t include the right to alter one’s own consciousness any way you see fit, then the declaration of independence isn’t worth the hemp it’s printed on.”
Right on, DC in LBV
Anyone who says drugs “don’t hurt anyone” is intellectually dead and morally bankrupt. The drug culture has essentially destroyed the social fabric in places like Colombia and Peru, and given rise to the worst sort of criminals - not only the international syndicates, but the crackheads or tweakers who don’t think twice about stealing or killing to support their habits. A real “war on drugs” would go after the demand in this country, rather than the supply in places like Latin America, Burma, Afghanistan, etc. Personally, I’d love to see Singapore-style drug laws, i.e. the gallows for dealers. The air would be fresher, the skies bluer with those scumbags gone.
Do you read what you write? Talk about intelectually dead.
“The drug culture has essentially destroyed the social fabric in places like Colombia and Peru, and given rise to the worst sort of criminals - not only the international syndicates, but the crackheads or tweakers who don’t think twice about stealing or killing to support their habits.
There would be no “drug culture” if drugs were legal you dope. Do you see any cigarette cartels destroying South American countries?
The so called rich already pay more taxes than most. Let’s see do we want to attract rich people to FL who can pay taxes although reduced in the above example. Or should we attract poor people who consumer tax revenue. Mmmmm…. tough choice mmm…..still thinking…..
I beleive this is a myth. 1st of all, percentage wise, they pay the least. 2nd of all, benefit wise, they receive the most.
Here’s an odditty (I’m being nice): The wealthy class pays no taxes from thier wages, like SS, medi-care, etc. Well beause they don’t have wages, they have investment income. But, yet they are entitled to receive SS. WTF?
Moreover, wealthy people and Coporations move thier taxable base overseas to avoid taxes. Yet demand more governemt services like military bases overseas to protect thier investments. Don’t forget the army of lobbists in all of our FED, State and local capitals. Who do you think most of these lobbists represent and what are they asking for? The wealthy control the GOV! It’s the golden rule: He who has the gold … makes the rules! Including the tax laws.
Paying taxes is for chumps and suckers.
not to mention that the rich uses a larger portion of law enforcement and judicial government services to protect their properties and rights to conduct business and earn more. yet they want us to equally share in paying for these services.
Were you planning on stealing from them?
A couple of weeks ago, there was some discussion on the falling US Dollar. This included some talk about a major pull-out by China (which was supposed to happen the next day, and of course did not) and the imminent collapse of the US Dollar.
In the last few weeks, the US Dollar has been strengthening against major foreign currencies.
What are the thoughts on this now?
My thoughts are still the same. Longer term I think the dollar will fall, and that central Banks will use a greater spread of currencies to hold. It’s simple diversification of risk. We’ve already seen countries as diverse as China and Italy moving this way.
Nothing will happen very quickly, however.
In answer to your shorter term question, the rebound of the dollar is due to a combination of factors including consumer confidence/upside inflation risk in the US likely to keep rates higher, whilst downside economic risk in the Eurozone and UK make further rate increases less likely.
You might be interested in this:
http://www.rbs.com/includes/utilities/pdf_tracker.asp?URL=/content/economic/downloads/insight/dollar_outlook.pdf
Regards,
Loafer
“central Banks will use a greater spread of currencies to hold.”
Does black gold fit your definition of currency?
Depends which way you look at it - selling gold for Euro instead of Dollar obviously strengthens demand for the former and lessens it for the latter.
On the other hand, is oil a currency? Not in my opinion. Too hard to exchange for goods and services.
Loafer
Oil hard to exchange? Its got to be the world’s must fungible commodity. Even more so than gold. Even nation consumes oil every day.
The US dollar is going to weaken versus most currencies. I expect oil to stay at $60+/bbl but to decline in respect to Euros.
Neil
Dollar Declines; U.A.E. Buying Euros, Selling U.S. Currency
By Min Zeng and Annie Pinkert
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) — The dollar dropped the most in more than a week against the euro after the head of the United Arab Emirates central bank said it will convert some of its reserves of U.S. assets into the European currency.
This is just the beginning…
Neil
I didn’t say oil was hard to exchange, I said it was hard to exchange for goods and services.
Tell me, do you think you could pay for your morning Starbucks or evening McD’s with a jar of oil?
No, thought not.
Loafer
has the us seen a massive dollar devaluation in the last 100 years ?
EU countries print like made too
The dollar lost 95% of its purchase power since 1915. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm
However, if your great grandparents, grandparents, and parents kept investing in T-bills and willing them off to the next generation since 1915, you would have done better than inflation - basically preserve your principle w.r.t. inflation - and the gains are state tax free!
Core inflation? LOL. I wish I could live by core inflation. Try paying for health care or education using the core rate.
In the spirit of our most recently deceased President, maybe we should just hope it will all get better by wearing Whip Inflation Now buttons.
Indeed, money supply increases in Euro and GBP have been very high too.
I am not flying the flag for any particular currency - CHF or JPY or RMB would be equally good as comparators - it’s just that the USD has weakened (and recovered again)against the GBP & EUR, and that it my area of best knowledge.
Loafer
All currencies are currently inflated, except the ones which are artificially suppressed. They have to devalue right along with us. Best guess is that they are diversifying in a basket of (inflated) currencies, as well as precious metals and commodities. China also can spend a lot of USD importing raw materials.
In the post-war years the US benefited greatly by being the one-eyed king of the blind. All we needed was to be more business friendly and less of a nanny state than Europe. Not a diffucult bar. However in the last 30 years, developing countries (first Japan, now China and other Asian tigers) have greatly improved efficiency and can compete. Not on par, but if the workers there get paid 1/10th as much they only have to be 1/5th as efficient to be competetive.
Here is what the chinese say about dollar devaluation:
“If external capital stops flowing into the United States, a significant drop in the US dollar may occur with consumption and investment shrinking, interest rates rising and financial markets experiencing turbulence, endangering global financial and economic stability. There could be adjustments in how European private capital, Asian foreign exchange reserves and oil export proceeds are invested.”
“If the US current account deficit continues to grow faster than GDP, then the investment value of US assets may be subjected to doubts and challenges and the willingness of investors to continue holding and buying US financial products may weaken. This could cause changes in capital flows, the exchange rates of major currencies and the value of foreign exchange assets,” the PBoC said.
PBoC = peoples bank of china.
Its a blip. The US dollar is falling and will continue to fall for the forseeable future. Period. Anything else is propaganda.
The only thing the Fed fears more than the dollar falling, is Joe Sixpack becoming *aware* that the dollar is falling.
And if the dollar is really strengthening then just show us the M3 number, Mr. Bernanke.
What’s the matter? Cat got his tongue?
The only thing the Fed fears more than the dollar falling is the dollar rising (aka deflation). A rising dollar means that you can buy more stuff with it next period than last, so instead of putting your money into devaluing assets (like stocks and houses), you would be wiser to stuff some under the mattress and buy your big ticket durables next period when they go on sale.
P.S. Joe Sixpack is and has been aware the dollar is falling for a few years running. Why else do you think Joe would have bought those five McLuxury condos last year?
Joe knows half the story. He knows real estate goes up; he just can’t understand that really the USD is falling. It is very important to the Fed to control inflation expectations, but not inflation itself. If Joe figures out the inflation game he will start front-running the Fed, and you will get hyper-inflation because nobody but nobody will want to hold USD even for five minutes. That’s why the Fed lies about the ‘core rate’ of inflation being two point something percent. Real inflation is about 9% currently. Now who wants to buy some bonds at 4.5%?
I would venture to guess that Joe sixpack, which is probably at least 80% of the US Population, doesn’t know what the ramifications are when the dollar crashes.
thats exaclty right, the FED will fight very hard to prevent deflation. My guess to the point of destroying the economy.
China will gradually diversify its holdings. That’s what the Chinese said, and I see no evidence that they were lying in this case. Today’s AUD price is slightly higher against USD than yesterday’s though not so high as 10 days ago. Do I buy more Australia govt bonds this a.m.? Maybe. There is an issue maturing 6/15/11, ergo little/no accrued interest to pay in buying
jd - My thoughts are inversely comparable to real estate. When “everyone knows,” and “everyone agrees,” and “everyone is talking” about the falling dollar, it will rebound.
Dollar price action is sort of like Gold’s - when the trend is reported in MSM headlines, it’s pretty safe to bet the other way.
Hang on, JD.
Most people are on this blog because we saw the fundamentals and knew it couldn’t go on…surely there is justification for saying the same about the current level of the dollar?
Loafer
Sorry, meant to say “hang on DC_too”
China has given us enough rope to hang ourselves. They are now diversifying, quietly. China has a long-term plan including increasing domestic consumption, establishing strong foreign ties to raw materials producers, industrialization. We have a declining USD, rocketing debt and dependence on foreign ‘investment’ to keep ourselves going. The fact is, China could write off its’ $1 trillion of US holdings. It could dump them. Painful for them, but it wouldn’t destroy them. The USD isn’t worth a continental. That said, it is true that all the big currencies (euro, CHF, etc.) are inflated.
It has to be a controlled devaluation to prevent choas!
Too many dollars out there so I expect the value of the dollar to continue down. Interest rates are still low so I guess the decline will be slow? Somebody is still happy buying 10 year treasuries at this low interest rate and if the dollar keeps going down probably make no money at all. werid. Anyway the stock market is doing very well so I expect many are getting out of dollars and buying stocks. Haha not buying RE although that may change.
The dollar will tank and will tank big time until they raise US rates even higher. The Japanese have stopped buying our securities in Mar of 04 and the Chinese took over so the dollar wouldn’t collapse to keep their largest customer alive a little while longer.
http://www.henryckliu.com/
A good site with much Chinese financial analysis.
Must-read from MISH.
“Global Savings Glut Revisited”
http://www.tiny.cc/jF74O
There is not really a savings glut in China.
What people mistake for a savings glut is in reality a process in which the Chinese Central Bank prints Renminbi in exchange for US dollars and then has to figure out what to do with those excess dollars.
In the long run the situation is very unstable.
There is nothing “safe” about the massive carry trades in play.
Public debt around the world is growing exponentially and total debt in the U.S. now stands at nearly 3.6 times GDP (1929 was 2.8 times).
A massive correction in debt and derivatives whose magnitude keeps on growing with time is coming. Timing the event is difficult to predict.
Timing is definitely hard to predict. But one thing is certain. Whoever flinches first is safest. Whoever flinches too late is toast.
I liken the inexorable demise of the symbiosis to the end of a game we played as kids, called Kerplunk…
http://www.playthingspast.com/mt506.html
Or the straw that broke the Camels back. Why do I have this itch that tells me that some little, forgotten, insignificant event is going to cause people to look at each other and with a concerned tone in their voice, say: Now, what happened?
Or the sandpile effect…
“In the long run the situation is very unstable.”
The Swedish know about devices that go: “BOOM!”
Years hence: who will get the “Nobel” for accurately predicting:
“Economic implosion derived from illiquid assets alchemized by the credit expansion of global central banks using irrational exuberance to sustain a financial catastrophe of their own creation.”
“Circumstantial evidence…like when you find a 20lb trout in your milk!”
Clever explanation for ignoring the elephant in the room.
It’s all circumstantial evidence…like when you find a 20lb trout in your milk!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/26/AR2006122601121.html
Immigrant labor demand softens w/ the housing market in metro DC
The only upside to China buying our debt is the more they own, the more vested they are in our future well being.
During the Cold War, I used to think the best strategy was to get all the foreign leaders to send they kids to our colleges and their families to Disneyland. They wouldnt drop bombs on us if their families and friends were here. Of course if we caught them sending their mother-in-laws here, then we would know a surprise attack was imminent. Gordo
“The only upside to China buying our debt is the more they own, the more vested they are in our future well being.”
CH = bank
US = Trump
As it turned out the impetus came from the bottom, not the top. The Berlin Wall fell because East Germans wanted their MTV.
An article in the WSJ last week reported on inner-Party North Koreans going into China to load up on Gucci this and Prada that, so what you describe still happens today.
Didn’t the iron curtain fail first in Hungary? ISTR Ossies would drive to the Hungarian/Austrian border and get into the West that way.
At some point, though you need to stop lending your crack-addicted cousin money. You’ll go broke and he’ll be dead.
Well so long has he’s got furniture and tools to pawn there’s no reason to stop quite yet.
The damn thing about codependency relationships is that all good things come to an end.
the thing about china and the dollar is that everyone assumes that if the dollar falls it would be awful, so they assume the dollar just won’t fall. what kind of logic is that? when the dollar starts to fall, the chinese at some point don’t won’t to be the greater fools and neither do other central bankers. it’s a game of chicken right now.
Kinda the same logic about a depression, right?
Ben, topic suggestion for the 1st of the new year. Many of us traveled (and or/are still travelling) for the holidays. I have some bubble stories from all over that I have heard from just about every position from every type of person. From the retiree how can’t build the retirement dream home because there’s no GF to buy current home to the IO loans on “hot” condos. Also, job loss and capitulation.
I think we should have a “where did you holiday, what did you hear?” thread.
I agree Muggy. I suggested this very topic after Turkey day but had very few responses. There are a lot of good holiday bubble stories out there.
Maybe I posted this, can’t remember: Monday night (Xmas) I was at a party talking to a woman who wants to put her house on the market In The Spring, only her husband doesn’t necessarily agree. Did I agree? Nope, I told her to put it on the market next week and price it below comps. She wanted to know how to persuade her husband. I told her to make him read this blog for a week, and if he still didn’t want to sell the house, she should then shut up and realize he is never selling. A little later, I found myself talking to the husband. He brought up the fact that his wife is interested in putting their (Oyster Bay, LI) house on the market In The Spring. I told him all the same things I told her. Luckily for him, there was a former NYC real-estate agent standing right next to us and she said (!!!!) that I was right. She also gave him the names of several local agents she said would help him to price the house in a way that would sell it. At that point, he seemed actually interested, it was no longer just his wife harrassing him. I’ll be awaiting their news.
I think this blog is too hard core for a first dose. People will put up their defenses and ignore everything.
I agree dude; a lot of what’s said here will go clean over J6P’s head.
I wish I could report this attitude but a recent debate was me versus everyone in the office. The only person I could sway was the eldest person in the office at the time (At 30 I was tied with 3 others for oldest, we’re fairly young) and he was 65… Basically asked him, as he had seen more of the world as an adult than the rest of us put together, surely he had seen real estate prices move down as well as up… Amazingly, he had forgotten this fact only moments prior…. Which brings me to my synopsis: We’re fudged if even now J6P (and in my case fairly well educated J6Ps) still are expecting price gains again in 2007.
dow up 75pts cheerleading on cnbc
housing numbers out 10am est
Good thing the stock market always goes up, even when the housing market is tanking…
More evidence that the MSM is getting it!(or reading this blog)
From the Chicago Tribune 12/27/06
The housing market isn’t dead, it’s stuck.
There’s a standoff between home buyers and sellers, and the health of the 2007 housing market may depend on who blinks first.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0612270409dec27,0,7144279.story?coll=chi-business-hed
inventory is only 6.3 months the bottom is upon us
i am going to buy!!!
what about all the stuff in hibernation until the big spring bounce?
any advice on what to do with my liquid savings?
it’s in a money market right now where can i put it to protect against the dollar?
Although the commerce department’s headline number says new home sales are up [MOM, down YOY], WSJ has this quote at the bottom of the article, “Based on figures unadjusted for seasonal factors, an estimated 72,000 homes were actually sold last month in the U.S., down from 78,000 in October.” I can’t wait for the revisions; it’s obviously baked into the number.
Subscriber’s link: http://tinyurl.com/yh63qf
swz or swiss maoney market pays about 2%
sj=hows you where they think the dollar’s going
Ok so new home sale were up in November. I think anybody who follows housing could have predicted that. The price went up as well which I did not expect, however what did actually sell in November? Was it mainly SFH’s or condo’s? Since this number is YOY is it likely that last year the mix of SFH to condo was say 60/40 or 70/30? Since the sale of condo’s always drops before SFH’s was this number out today 80/20 or 90/10 if so than it is no wonder that prices went up because a SFH most always sells for more than a condo.
Another thing we have to think about was in the AP press release that said that builders used all sorts of incentives to sell these homes. So how many vacations, cars, etc are in that price that should not be in that price?
One last thing since these sales are actually in escrow and have not actually sold how many will fail escrow? We saw on this blog a week or so ago that Pulte homes in Las Vegas had sold some homes 2 and even 3 times. Indeed the other major number out this morning was mortgage applications and this was at a 5 month low. Of course the reason given for this by the MBA folks is that interest rates are up. Hmm aren’t interest rates down about 50 basis points since mid summer?
“Since this number is YOY is it likely that….”
The YOY numbers are down; the headline is for MOM.
However, in addition to builder incentives and cancellations, add a high rate of foreclosures like Weld county CO to the mix and you get a real taste of housing market conditions.
Lastly, the WSJ reported, “an estimated 72,000 homes were actually sold last month in the U.S., down from 78,000 in October.”
“how many will fail escrow?”
Enough to turn it from an “up” number to a “down” number, IMO. I’m guessing that very few of these buyers did not have another house they need to sell. If a builder keeps calendar-year books, they might have incentive to record the sales as pending even though they may well fall through before closing. The real boost, if any, will come from profit-margin cutting.
I keep an eye on one neighborhood and my agent there said the builders have x homes under contract but they’d be delighted to have a backup offer from me. Yup, bet they would. The offer they’ll get instead, at the right time, is an all-cash vulture-tract.
MG-You can buy a Euro CD at http://www.everbank.com
Please focus on the headline, and ignore the fine print in context (”Sales are now down 15.3% in the past year.”).
———————————————————————————————-
U.S. Nov. new-home sales rise 3.4% to 1.047 mln pace
By Robert Schroeder
Last Update: 10:00 AM ET Dec 27, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of new homes rose 3.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales are now down 15.3% in the past year. October’s sales pace was revised to 1.013 million, from an earlier-estimated 1.004 million. The median sales price of a new home rose to $251,700 from $243,800. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales to rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.02 million from the previous 1.00 million. End of Story
Good… Put a tux on the pig, every half witted lamebrain believes so the Fed can jack up the overnite rate.
I’m game.
What do you mean “Half Wit”?
My 2007 Picks” USO, F, FNSR, QID and I’m looking for a fifth…Possibly Leap Puts on LEND? Any thoughts?
quarter wit?
T-bond yields are moving up today with everything else, with the implication that mortgage rates are soon to follow. That will make it harder to put GFs into new McMansions they can’t afford…
or china is sellind bonds
It will be interesting to see where rates and metals go when the “Saddam’s New Tie” stuff kicks in.
It is useful to compare the November New Residential Construction report to the 1.047m pace of November new home sales just released.
November housing completions = 1.915m
November housing starts = 1.588m
November building permits = 1.506m
So it looks like the current pace of construction is producing vacant homes at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 868,000 (1.915m - 1.047m), but once the soft-landing arrives at the middle of next year, this will slow down to a pace of new vacant home production of only 459,000 (1.506m - 1.047m) or so per year. Hmmm…
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/newresconst.pdf
Great point, GS — will any MSM outlet mention this?
this number has to be the MOST useless of all stats
Sales were up 22.5 percent in the Northeast, a rebound from a huge 35.5 percent drop in October.
which one of you moved to NE?
gotta love these media comparisons. up or down vs what? last month? last year? the 22.5% rebound on a 35.5% drop in oct is still a drop of 20’s% smth?
it was the early bonus wall st bump
as far as i can see all the same crap that was available in october
is still quite available today
Can the stock market really be as dumb as it seems? What do HB stock investers think another 868K new vacant homes will do the the value of built and unbuilt inventory, not to mention comp prices and future HB revenues and profits? Or are they merely anticipating high future inflation? It is hard to envision how building at a pace of 80% above the absorption rate could lead to a soft landing…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=TOL&siteid=mktw&time=1&freq=9&comp=&compidx=SP500%7E3377&compind=&uf=0&ma=&maval=&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&type=2&size=1&txtstyle=&style=&submitted=true&intflavor=basic&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp
“Can the stock market really be as dumb as it seems?”
Yes! If you assume buyers reside in the same GF population.
Well, the stock market in the short term is a glorified voting booth. And living in Florida you should know how stupid voters can be.
Be careful here, the stock market can be dumb like it was in 2000 but usually it is not as dumb as those who disagree with it. This maybe a soft landing especially if the FED keeps the money supply up and tolerates inflation… like its doing now. personally I have to be prepared to get back in if I’m wrong about the housing bubble and inflation keeps up. the stock market loves all this money floating around. I really thought the FED would tighten more.
Although we are seeing a housing bubble starting to destory the “American infrastructure and economy” there are bigger problems that should and will take precedence. Global warming is the number scientific story of the year according to the associated press. It looks like Colorado Real Estate might be the best kept secret , considering it is above sea level ( may even be beach front property in the next ten years).
At least wait until the builders stop building in excess of new home purchases before you decide whether the inventory tsunami is more or less serious a problem than global warming. (As of November 2006, it appears they were adding to ghost tract home inventory at a 1m annual rate or so).
Next year “global warming” won’t even rank in the top 10.
/startmentalimage/ tj & the bear with his fingers in his ears singing “la la la la la la everythings fine I can drive my SUV doing 10mpg and it doesn’t matter and even if it did, hey I’m an American and it’s my right to do it anyway ’cause I’m the boss la la la la la la” /endmentalimage/
I would be willing to bet solid hard cash (i.e. not USD) that you are wrong.
Regards,
Loafer
You’d lose.
In the coming depression when people are losing their jobs & homes, automakers & airlines are failing, gas is $10/gallon and we’re at war with both Iran and North Korea, you can just bet everyone’s going to be talking about global warming. Yeah, right!
BTW, ever read “State of Fear”? The reason everyone doesn’t believe global warming is because nobody has yet to prove it convincingly. As far as I’m concerned, the jury’s still out. Besides, all of the measures proposed so far (including Kyoto) will have negligible effects; typical useless, feel-good BS.
Stop loafing… start reading and thinking for yourself.
loafer,
Sorry for that last remark — totally uncalled for. I’ve been sick throughout the Christmas holiday and it’s affected my mood.
No problem (hey, I didn’t say it would be no.1 did I?!)
I tell you what, I’ll bet you 10 Swiss Francs, with the loser donating to a charity of their choice!
Get well soon.
Loafer
Global warming is the reason insurance companies are hiking eastern-coastal rates…you betcha it’ll have a influence…a huge influence.
Rex,
IMHO insurance companies are raising their rates because they lost their a$$es in the last few years due to hurricances and also because they can. If you were on the inside looking at the numbers, you’d understand why the rates “have” to go up. No one really wants to write the insurance there anylonger, but some companies will do it in order to write other lines of business.
If you can show me that “global warming” leads to more hurricanes, I might stand corrected, but I think the insurance companies just need to recoup their losses.
Also, if Global Warming is such a concern for everyone, why are all of the southern states growing while the northern states decreasing?
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/22/us/22census.html?ex=1324443600&en=45d54ae9c2b51143&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
“An influx from California helped make Arizona the fastest-growing state, displacing Nevada for the first time in nearly two decades, according to census figures released yesterday.”
Although Arizona is growing , it is still sheeple mentality. Everybody wants to be where it is warm, that doesn’t mean there isn’t global warming. I just recently got back from Dallas Texas, I never seen so many dried out lakes with docks just sitting in the dirt. I ask a few people how long ago the water evaporated and they told me about 3-4 years ago. Unfortunately, they really believe and anticipate the water coming back , which will never happen ( value of property has sunk).
For what it’s worth, here’s my take on the latest data (also available at my blog, http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com)
* New home sales rose 3.4% between October and November, vs. forecasts for a 1.6% gain. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales hit 1.047 million units, up from 1.013 million units in October. However, that’s still down 15.3% from a year earlier (1.236 million in 11/05)
* The supply of homes for sale slipped to 545,000, or 6.3 months at the current sales rate. That’s down from 558,000 and 6.7 in October. However, we are only down 28,000 units, or 4.9%, from the all-time U.S. inventory record of 573,000 units for sale in July. That 573,000 reading, by the way, was a 96% rise from the 2001, pre-boom low.
* Median prices even rebounded up 5.8% year-over-year from last November to $251,700. That’s the biggest YOY gain since June. In fact, prices aren’t far off their high to date of $257,000 in April, if you believe these stats. I personally don’t think they’re capturing the huge amount of incentives being thrown at buyers. Many builders are also slashing list prices – by as much as 20%, 30% or more in my market down here.
My analysis:
Interest rates started falling in the summer. But home sales didn’t react at first – they remained weak. That changed last month. Mortgage rates finally came down enough to spark buyer interest, causing sales and home prices to bounce off their lows.
But I wouldn’t break out the New Year’s bubbly just yet.
For one thing, interest rates have leveled off again. You can see the impact that’s having in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly purchase application index. It dropped almost 6% two weeks ago and another 11% in the most recent week. Some of this could be holiday-related “noise.” More likely, it’s that this rate-fueled bounce is running out of gas.
For another thing, there’s the massive inventory overhang we’re dealing with. A 5%, four-month decline isn’t much when you consider the five-year, 96% run up that preceded it. And that’s just the new home market. The market is flooded with existing homes, too.
Longer term, the approaching spring selling season is for all the marbles. I expect many of the homes that didn’t sell last year – and that were pulled off the market for the holidays – to hit the MLS in the spring. Throw in the tepid economy and a likely tightening in mortgage standards, and I think you have a recipe for disappointment. In other words, look for the housing market to remain weak in 2007.
Interest rates have not moved much in 6 weeks. In addition ask any realtor what mortgage rate really starts to slow sales and they will say 7%. The real story on lower mortgage applications I think is the new fed requirements on toxic loans. Recently mortgage lenders have had to give details to buyers how bad these loans can be. I can imagine Joe 6 pack and his wife went out in November and saw these new homes that were 20% cheaper, they wrote an offer and the transaction went into escrow. A few days later they sat down with the mortgage lender who said that they could not qualify with a 30 year fixed rate. However you can qualify with an option arm and then gave them the bad news about these loans. Joe 6 pack has now decided not to buy and never filled out the mortgage application.
Actually, look at the other side of the book on interest rates- rates paid by institutions for bread and butter such as Certificates of Deposit have steadily declined over the past 6 weeks.
They charge no more for interest, but pay out less. This is another skirmish in the War against Savings, or as it is known on the other side of the line, the War for Consumerism.
WAman — Interest rates have not moved much since mid-November (i.e. in the last six weeks, as you mentioned). BUT they most certainly have moved down since the summer. Ten-year T-note yields peaked at around 5.25% in late June and fell all the way to 4.43% or so in early December. It’s that decline that I think was responsible for finally getting some buyers to come out of the woodwork. That and the surge in incentives. I put a few examples on my blog of new home builders offering 30%+ off on list prices.
As for the impact of tighter qualifying standards, I agree that this could have a big impact on the market in 2007. The government’s “guidance” was basically useless because it had no teeth. Lenders roundly ignored it. Then actual defaults and foreclosures started rising, and end investors started realizing they were holding a bunch of junk paper. That has resulted in widening of credit spreads late this year, and I expect this trend to continue into 2007. In other words, the secondary mortgage market is starting to FORCE change on the primary lenders … and that will weaken home sales at the margin.
On the “trickle down” effect when the wealthy are given big tax breaks. Sorry, the “trickle down” effect doesn’t work.
One of the big strengths of the USA, is that it once did exactly the opposite of places like the UK when it came to consumers. As we all know, the success of the US has been it’s consumer society. It worked roughly like this: “I make enough money to buy the product you are making - you make enough money to buy the product I am making.” That may have changed now but more on that in a moment.
In the UK and most of europe, governments heavily taxed everything they figured was a luxury. The rich, of course, were able to escape those heavy taxes which is why places like Switzerland, the Caymen Islands and Luxemburg exsist. In europe, heavy taxes encompassed fridges, cars, perfume, cigarettes, cigars, radios, etc, etc. If you had a telephone you were reasonably well off. These were items the US deemed as non-luxury and were available to the majority of americans. In europe, only the rich, who were mostly the very upper middle class and the aristocracy, could afford, for instance, a car.
One of the reasons Winston Churchill didn’t get re-elected as Prime Minister after WW2 was because ordinary Brit serviceman met and talked to ordinary US servicemen and were shocked to discover, for instance, that a plumber or an electrician or factory worker in civilian life in the US could afford a fridge, a car, good vacations, buy a home, etc, and started to wonder why they didn’t have a better standard of living. Churchill was, of course, roughly equal to a US republican and, as we know, republicans (especially those at the top like Exxon CEO’s or Kenny Boy of Enron and most of Bush’s pals) embrace the “trickle down” theory for obvious reasons.
The US proved one thing. If you give people good incomes for the work they do, they buy lots of goodies which keeps other workers employed who, in turn, buy goodies. However, in the UK, they made items like Rolls Royce cars. Lots of low pay workers beavering away like ants making special one off items that only the rich could afford. Lots of workers building and maintaining property which was owned by the wealthy WHO NEVER SOLD their property but simply collected rents. In other words, the rich reaped but they didn’t sow.
As most will know, the “theory” behind a capitalist society is that the worker cannot buy the product he makes. That is, if a worker makes a pair of sneakers and gets paid $20 an hour, he cannot buy the item he made for that amount because, in the store, it will cost $40. Of course, a worker making sneakers makes 50 pairs an hour thus his product sells for $2000 but he still makes $20. However, the US system works (or did) and there was a lot of money flowing which reached the mass population as opposed to places like europe where a lot of money was also flowing, most of which only reached the few.
There is an old saying that, “The rich plan for decades. The poor plan for Saturday night.” This is true. Contrary to what the “trickle down” promoters might say, the rich do not spend their big tax breaks on a Saturday night out. They do not buy 50 large screen tv’s or 20 cars to keep the working class employed. Items like tv’s and cars are diminishing assets. The well educated rich are not stupid enough to spend all their money on diminishing assets. They re-invest in things like property. Office buildings, etc. Again, using the US as an example, in the UK property ownership was very low at one point because the land and the property was owned by the rich. The Queen of England, for instance, STILL owns masses of property in the UK. The Duke of Westminster owned (and probably still does) most of Mayfair in London where the super rich live and all the major hotels are situated.
I can tell you this from experience. In the UK the very wealthy do not sit down and think, “Mmmm. How can I spend my big tax break money so that it trickles down to the working class and they can live better?” Instead, they are busy consulting with their lawyers and accountants trying to figure out how they can transfer that money into off-shore accounts. In the US it is EXACTLY the same. I have a friend who retired from the IRS last year. He was pretty high up and told me that the US oil corporations where pouring (literally) money into off-shore accounts. He happens to be a republican but he said he was disgusted at how much they get away with.
Finally, the old US strength of, “I manufacture something you want - you manufacture something I want,” has gone. The US is now a country which does nothing but shuffle paper and prints money. The UK is the same. The rich who shuffle the paper (like the corporate ceo’s and the big Wall Street brokers) make millions and millions and are the first to scream when a cleaner wants a $2 an hour raise. So much for “trickle down.” The US itself now simply prints money on an “AS NEEDED” basis which is why there is a massive deficit as far out into space as the eye can see. And, all the time hoping the rest of the world (like China) will not suddenly say, “We don’t want your paper money ’cause it’s worthless. You don’t make anything you just import ink and printing machines to make more money. In fact, you don’t even make the printing machines.”
If flag waving moron is stupid enough not to see that, I suggest you take a long look around at the collapse (sell out) of US manufacturing and the workers who made $50 an hour and now work for $15 an hour. Then take a long look at your neighbors who are buying imported goods made with cheap labor. How can they afford it? Simple, they are buying these goods with money sucked out of their over-valued homes which are over-valued because of paper shuffling and money printed to create liquidity for the paper-shufflers.
Wrap yourself in the flag (be it the Union Jack or the Stars and Stripes because the UK is really the 51st state now) but the population of both countries has been brain washed into thinking that the good times can only keep rolling because the printing press never stops printing and the paper shufflers will find other ways to shuffle.
You can thank the labor unions and 15% payroll tax for the reason the US does not manufacture anything anymore. A hundred years ago when people worked 12 hr shifts 6 days a week for 5 cents an hour you needed unions. They have gone too far when in the 1970s and 1980s an auto worker in Detroit could make (with overtime) $100K and get unlimted lifetime health care. Of course little to nothing gets made here. Taxes here are too high, of course tax shelters are attractive.
we have record exports. is that nothing?
We have record trade deficits. Is that nothing?
we weren’t talking about trade deficits.
In order to avoid talking about horrific deficits, which is something most want to do ’cause it’s nasty, they talk about record exports. When compared to China our exports look like chicken feed….and our trade deficit and national debt still keeps rising despite our so called record exports.
John, I admit we did export 3 million manufacturing jobs in the last four years. Let’s keep up the good work.
that’s a great zinger, but what we’re talking about here is the fact that we say we don’t produce anything. that’s nonesense. we all know that manufacturing has dropped off, but to say we produce nothing, that’s a bit of hyperbole even in the face of record trade deficits. that’s my only point.
hell, we have more houses than we know what to do with, too bad we can’t export them, although all the rich foreigners just come here to buy them!
you still believe that crap about why toyota is beating gm because of unions? well guess what, toyota cars are more expensive than comparable gm cars and still people prefers the former. the price differential is enough to offset that *labor union disparity*. gm could invest more on their r&d, tooling and retraining instead of fat executive paycheck, shareholder dividends, and stock buybacks.
Well said Mike.
Yes. Good commentary, Mike.
Jose,
I also agree with you about GM and the unions. The unions are the scapegoats for the useless executives who just suck the companies dry. It’s the unions that create the workers who can afford those cars.
Like Mike said, you have to consider the DEMAND side of things. Supply doesn’t matter, absent adequate demand.
If someone else in the world will do your job for $15/hour and you are paid $50/hour, explain to me exactly why you deserve the job and he doesn’t.
well for one, could be years of experience.
I couldn’t find a link to this, but it is a letter written to the washington post:
America’s Red Ink
Sunday, December 24, 2006; Page B06
The largest employer in the world announced on Dec. 15 that it lost about $450 billion in fiscal 2006. Its auditor found that its financial statements were unreliable and that its controls were inadequate for the 10th straight year. On top of that, the entity’s total liabilities and unfunded commitments rose to about $50 trillion, up from $20 trillion in just six years.
If this announcement related to a private company, the news would have been on the front page of major newspapers. Unfortunately, such was not the case — even though the entity is the U.S. government.
To put the figures in perspective, $50 trillion is $440,000 per American household and is more than nine times as much as the median household income.
The only way elected officials will be able to make the tough choices necessary to put our nation on a more prudent and sustainable long-term fiscal path is if opinion leaders state the facts and speak the truth to the American people.
The Government Accountability Office is working with the Concord Coalition, the Brookings Institution, the Heritage Foundation and others to help educate the public about the facts in a professional, nonpartisan way. We hope the media and other opinion leaders do their part to save the future for our children and grandchildren.
DAVID M. WALKER
Comptroller General of the United States
Government Accountability Office
Walker has been on the stump, giving this speech across the country. He is an outstanding public employee, a model for any government worker.
Why single out Jobs in the backdating scandal? I thought everyone was doing it?
——————————————————————————-
Apple stock falls on report of faked grant dates
By MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:34 PM ET Dec 27, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Shares of Apple Computer Inc. fell as much as 5% in Wednesday trading after a published report suggested that some company officials may have falsified stock-option documents to maximize profits for executives.
The report from the California legal newspaper the Recorder, which appeared on the Web site Law.com, said that federal prosecutors are examining the documents to determine whether criminal charges should be filed. The report cited “individuals familiar with the case who requested anonymity.” See story at Law.com.
The story also said that Chief Executive Steve Jobs had decided to hire his own attorney to deal with inquiries by the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission. The high-profile chief executive had been represented by the company’s outside law firm.
http://tinyurl.com/ybyw7g
I expect AAPL to revert back to its recent (2003) level of $10/share any day now, as I have put my foot down and insisted my 12-year-old daughter get an MP3 player ($20) instead of an IPod ($150). Without HELOC money, who can afford a $130 name brand premium?
http://tinyurl.com/s8k5b
Can any of the tech analysts in the virtual room please comment on whether AAPLs price chart looks more like it has reached a permanently high plateau, or is it in more of a hangman pattern with the floor about to drop out from below?
Apple stock gets tossed around by the relentless pace of change in tech. If iPods continue to dominate and Macs compete well against Vista based machines, then maybe the stock will hold or rise. If the next new thing is some other kind of phone or machines from Asia running VMware from Palo Alto then everything could go utterly sour in what seems like the blink of an eye.
It is pretty clear that Apple and other nearby success stories have a long history of influencing the Bay Area housing market and powering the incredible booms and hangovers that follow. The scales are a bit different, but just about the same thing was happening around 1988 when Apple stock was exploding the first time. Coincidence?
How do you explain away those big spikes in their long-term price chart — especially the right sides of them (when prices plummeted back down to below $10/share)? Or maybe you didn’t notice that feature?
The fat “country boy” is getting ready to sing:
The preacher man says it’s the end of time
And the Mississippi River she’s a goin’ dry
The interest is up and the Stock Markets down
And you only get mugged
If you go down town
I live back in the woods, you see
A woman and the kids, and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun rifle and a 4-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain’t too many things these ole boys can’t do
We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Because you can’t starve us out
And you cant makes us run
Cause one-of- ‘em old boys raisin ole shotgun
And we say grace and we say Ma’am
And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn
We came from the West Virginia coalmines
And the Rocky Mountains and the and the western skies
And we can skin a buck; we can run a crop line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name, just hillbilly
My grandpa taught me how to live off the land
And his taught him to be a businessman
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights
And I’d send him some homemade wine
But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife
For 43 dollars my friend lost his life
Id love to spit some beechnut in that dudes eyes
And shoot him with my old 45
Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Cause you can’t starve us out and you can’t make us run
Cause one-of- ‘em old boys raisin ole shotgun
And we say grace and we say Ma’am
And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn
We’re from North California and south Alabam
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck; we can run a crop line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
“Country folks can survive”.
You won’t be alone. Cockroaches are expected to survive everything, including nuclear holocaust.
December issue of Lowball! If you are in the NY Metro area, this is one you shouldn’t miss!
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/12/27/lowball-december-2006/
Grim — the first three, at sales more than 50% off original asking, are a great start. Thanks for the research!
Wow. Very, very nice, grim! Thanks you!
Lurch…
(Scroll down to have a gander at the jump in the T-bond yields today…)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
test
-
Is it the top yet?
Dow tops 12,500 - a record
Major gauges rally, sending blue-chip index into uncharted territory, on solid home sales, falling oil.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney senior writer
December 27 2006: 4:51 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Stocks rallied Wednesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing above 12,500 for the first time, on falling oil prices, a surprisingly bullish report on home sales and a fresh burst of end-of-year buying.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 102.94 to 12,510.57, Charts) jumped more than 100 points to end above 12,500 - its highest close ever.
Should say stocks rallied on continued easy money and a falling dollar.
Could we do a thread about what people saw in terms of retail sales on Boxing Day or Post-Christmas? And also what their experience of people’s level of spending on gift-giving was this year? Basically an anecdotal thread about consumer activity this year as compared to last? Could be interesting.
-
People are spending like mad. Do not underestimate the American consumer.
Was in Target tonight. Very sloooow.
Thought this was interesting, from “The Bear’s Lair” in today’s Prudent Bear:
“Better hidden still was a BLS press release of November 14, announcing that “quality improvements” in 2007’s automobiles and light trucks over 2006 had caused the BLS to remove $150.91 from 2007’s car prices and $392.00 from light truck prices, to take effect in October’s PPI and November’s CPI. On closer inspection, most of the “quality improvements” consisted of federally mandated safety changes, warranty improvements and changes to audio equipment. In other words the “hedonic pricing” that since 1995 has suppressed reported price inflation through correcting artificially for increases in computing power that brought little net benefit, has now been extended to removing from the index federally mandated cost increases on automobiles. Since new and used vehicles represent 7.9% of the CPI, that 1+% cost removal is roughly 0.1% on the CPI in the month, or 1.2% at an annual rate from this source alone. The unexpectedly high Producer Price Index for November announced Tuesday indicated that November’s CPI was indeed an unduly massaged figure, and that inflation remains a real and present danger.”