“Prices And Sales Continue To Fall” In Florida
The Florida realtors have their November numbers out. “Sales of existing homes and condos in Florida were down in November. A total of 11,912 existing single-family homes sold statewide last month, a decrease of 30 percent from the 17,088 homes sold during the previous November, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“The statewide existing-home median price was $242,500 last month; a year ago, it was $250,400 for a decrease of 3 percent, according to FAR. Florida’s existing condominium sales also declined in November with a total of 3,346 condos sold statewide compared to 5,198 in November 2005 for a 36 percent decrease, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos last month was $206,000; a year ago, it was $215,100 for a 4 percent decrease.”
The Palm Beach Post. “Palm Beach County home prices took a big dip from their November 2005 peak, the Florida Association of Realtors said today. The median price for an existing single-family home sold in November was $370,400, down 12 percent from $421,500 a year earlier. Home sales plunged 45 percent.”
The News Press. “Prices and the number of sales continued to fall in November for existing single-family homes in Lee County. The median price of a home sold fell 12 percent from November 2005, from $295,400 to $258,600, while the number of sales was down 21 percent from 810 to 637.”
“In Collier County, the median price fell 13 percent from $479,800 to $415,200 while the number of sales fell 45 percent from 333 to 182. Charlotte County had an 8 percent fall in the median price from $236,900 to $217,300 while the number of homes sold fell 21 percent from 245 to 194.”
From Florida Today. “Housing prices continued to fall last month in Brevard County. The median sales price of existing homes in Brevard County dropped to $203,400 in November, down 12 percent from November 2005.”
“Condominium prices in Brevard, meanwhile, fell to a median of $170,000 in November, down 15 percent from November 2005. The number of condominiums sales in Brevared plummeted to 33 in November, down 78 percent from a year earlier.”
“Statewide, single-family home and condo prices fell last month in 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked by the Florida Association of Realtors.”
The South Florida Business Journal. “The median price of a single-family, existing home in November fell: 7 percent to $362,000 from $391,100 in Fort Lauderdale. 2 percent to $372,400.”
The St Petersburg Times. “Tampa Bay area builders, using incentives and price cuts to restore some semblance of sales stability, can’t say for sure when they expect the slowdown to end.”
“Transeastern Homes: The builder has tried to stave off bankruptcy by laying off more than 100 and dismissing regional president Bob Krieff. Ryland Homes: Heavily invested in Pasco County, saw new home orders tank 64 percent from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006.”
“Centex Homes: Centex’s home contracts plunged 53 percent. Beazer Homes: The company said new home orders dropped by a third in Florida. Its stronghold has been southeast Hillsborough County. Pulte Homes: Based on its latest report, the nation’s second-biggest homebuilder sold 29 percent fewer homes in the region that includes Florida. It has trimmed its work force 10 percent.”
The Herald Tribune. “Economist Paul Kasriel refers to a fairly simple formula: take the dollar value of new and existing single-family homes in 2005 and divide it by the nation’s gross domestic product, the total of all goods and services produced in one year. That gives you a ratio of 16.3 percent.”
“‘That’s off the scale,’ Kasriel said. ‘The ratio has never been that high. The median is 8.4 percent and the previous high, of less than 12 percent, was in the late 1970s.’”
“Real estate prices have been dropping faster than ever before. The NAR said last month that the median price in October for existing homes fell a steep 3.5 percent from October 2005. ‘That’s the largest decline on record since 1968, and the speed of the decline has been breathtaking,’ Kasriel said. ‘It’s just like a straight line down.’”
“Lawrence Yun, an economist with the National Association of Realtors, concedes that housing prices in certain areas, including Southwest Florida, ‘have gotten ahead of themselves, we don’t see the sector tipping the economy into recession.’”
“‘It’s psychology, people are waiting to see when the bottom is coming,’ Yun said. ‘Due to dropping rates and dropping prices, it’s only a matter of time.’”
From Reuters. “On a piece of prime bayfront property near downtown Miami, weeds climb the steps of the sales office for Onyx 2, a planned waterview condo where apartments were to sell for $500,000 to $2,000,000.”
“Developers have pulled the plug on some of Miami’s most anticipated condominium developments. ‘This market was too good to be true,’ said Lewis Goodkin, a Miami economist and real estate analyst. ‘But it was a market fueled by speculators, so it wasn’t a true market.’”
“The seller of a Miami Beach waterfront one-bedroom dropped his asking price from $445,000 to $400,000 to $370,000 in a matter of weeks. ‘We’re starting to see projects being canceled almost on a weekly basis,’ said consultant Jack McCabe.”
“‘You have to have people buying units to live in. Who are the speculators going to sell these units to?’ Goodkin said.”
Don’t miss the tables at the bottom of the FAR press release. Lots of minus signs.
‘Developers and developer-friendly officials ought to look long and hard at the latest census figures showing Florida dropping from the fourth fastest-growing state in 2005 to the ninth fastest in 2006.’
‘The figures don’t just support, as some have maintained, that soaring real-estate prices and runaway property-insurance rates are pricing some out of the Florida market. They also suggest that Florida’s future isn’t inevitably defined by unbridled growth but rather by quality-of-life considerations.’
‘ Hey, it’s not Florida or bust. Folks wanting sunshine can move to Arizona. If they want affordability, there’s North Carolina.’
sofla median ois loitering around 360-390 for almost 1+ yr..will it crack 350k in 2007..apple to apple ought to be at least 15% down.i guess low mortgage rate has stemmed the bleeding a bit…
It’s funny because if you read the news from liars and crooks like Bloomberg, the real estate market today is booming again. Florida or somewhere else. It’s funny what you can make with numbers.
Yeah, I get a kick out of Bloomberg. They were talking about my old company (I was there 15 yrs) a couple of weeks ago.
According to them everything is great at my old place. But I know that the CFO and the CTO left this month. The stock has dropped 10% the past 2 weeks. And they are dropping their auditors of 40 years on Jan 1.
Sure its a SOLID place. With a little advanced (insider) notice I switched my 401k with them to IRAs on Oct 1.
It proves that journalists at Bloomberg are either crooks on payola or plain stupid. The first hypothesis is more realistic.
Bloomberg and the others are all the same. “Think positive. Smile and say just good things.”
It’s better for the image, to get advertising contracts and nice brown envelops filled with a lot of the green stuff and less lawsuits.
Thanks for the comment. I noticed how these guys and gals are full of it. And that I am not paranoid.
Insurance regulators study climate change
——————————————————————————–
By Kim Chipman and Jesse Westbrook
——————————————————————————–
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) ?US insurance regulators on Friday agreed to study how a warming climate might affect the industry and its customers, a decision that reflects increasing concern among insurers about potential future losses due to extreme weather.The National Association of Insurance Commissioners said it had voted to form a task force to examine the potential impact of climate change and possible measures regulators and insurers can take to reduce risk.
More US insurers, including Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the Omaha, Nebraska-based insurance and investment company run by billionaire Warren Buffett, are boosting rates or dropping coverage following hurricanes that caused almost $100 billion in insured losses over the past two years.
揢S insurers can抰 ignore this issue any longer,?said Andrew Logan, who oversees insurance matters at CERES, a Boston-based coalition of investment funds, environmental organisations and advocacy groups that promote social responsibility. 揟he long-term solvency of the industry and the availability of insurance for consumers are at stake.?br>While European companies such as Munich Re and Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world抯 two largest reinsurers, have long spoken out about the risk climate change poses to the industry, US counterparts have been more wary.
揟here are still a few people out there, though not many, who don抰 think the weather is getting worse, but that we抳e just had a couple of unusual years,?said Paul Newsome, an insurance analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. 揂 wider group thinks we will have more violent storms in the future and should price accordingly.?br>The National Association of Insurance Commissioners?task force will be led Tim Wagner, head of the Nebraska Department of Insurance, and Mike Kreidler, insurance commissioner for Washington state, according to the Kansas City, Missouri-based group.
The NAIC is the forum through which insurance regulators from the 50 US states work to address issues facing the industry, which is regulated primarily at the state level.
While no individual weather event can be directly attributed to global warming, data from scientists and insurance models indicate that rising temperatures will likely increase the frequency and intensity of storms, floods, drought, wildfires and other extreme weather, according to CERES.
Some scientists say human-generated emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses are contributing to the hotter temperatures and leading to more intense storms and larger natural catastrophes.
President George W. Bush has questioned the science behind global warming concerns and resisted calls by those who say the issue needs more attention in Washington. Insurers?growing concern about climate change may add to that pressure, according to CERES.
揟he insurance industry is well positioned to be part of the solution for climate change because it has influence with both policy makers and companies,?Logan said.
Newsome said the insurance industry largely 揹oesn抰 really care?about what抯 causing climate change. Instead, the companies 揷are about whether it抯 happening,?he said.
Four Florida hurricanes cost insurers $22.9 billion in 2004, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. Last year抯 storms, including Hurricane Katrina, led to $56.8 billion in losses, more than twice the annual record, the Jersey City, New Jersey-based consulting firm said.
Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway抯 chief executive officer, said last week that the company抯 reinsurance units will charge 揻ar higher prices?for large catastrophe policies after sustaining a loss of $3.4 billion from last year抯 US hurricane season.
Buffett, considered by many to be the world抯 greatest investor, said in his annual letter to shareholders that while the cause behind the more frequent and intense hurricanes remains 揳n open question,?the company must err on the side of caution and assume there will be more extreme weather in the future.
Environmentalists and others who advocate federal action on climate change say Buffett抯 comments are significant.
揥hen the Oracle of Omaha divines that there抯 a financial impact from climate, people will pay attention,?said David Tuft, the climate centre campaign director for the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington. 揟his is more evidence that there抯 a growing awareness that climate change is having a financial impact.?
>>>>
Link to the insurance article……..
http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060313/BUSINESS/103130113
another pdf about global warming and insurance rates..
http://admin.business.uconn.edu/portalvbvs/desktopmodules/pressroom/externalNews/39/39.pdf
Yep. My Berkshire Hathaway B shares are up about $1000 each (from $2700 to $3700) because of the reinsurance profits this year.
“If they want affordability, there’s North Carolina.”
Just got back from Charlotte. They’re really drinking the koolaid there. front page of paper was “NC growth among fastest in nation, state now 10th largest population in country”.
everybody thinks that Charlotte is about to be the next mega-city. Of course it won’t be. It’s total suburban development, the entire city. It just spreads out and out and out.
Yet, now they’re building condos and highrises and townhomes. Sound familiar?
this bubble is simply astonishing
HIC
Doesn’t Charlotte have a pretty strong economy, though? Have never been there, but I know 2 of the nation’s largest banks are headquartered there, as are lots of other companies.
sc and nc suffered from the mills closing
building is big, but that mey die
Charlotte was never a mill town. Concord one county over was hurt by the mill shut downs. However, Nascar has helped them stay afloat!
Yes former Bank of America of San Francisco was
purchased by Nations Bank and relocated to Charlotte.
They also have Linux distro RedHat HQ at Charlotte.
Maybe others too.
Red Hat HQ is Raleigh…not Charlotte.
Charlotte is a big banking hub and does have a good economy. TIAA Creff moved most of their operations down from NY. Other major industries….
The concern with real estate and the bubble is the same as Florida. New Yorkers selling their homes for mega bucks, moving down, paying cash for a mcmansion or mini-mcmansion. They don’t have jobs but figure they can always do menial jobs when the money runs out. As we are witnessing here in Florida, the money does run out. When that happens, the whining really begins!
Last summer when I was in Charlotte, I was shocked at all the condos. The thing is, if you have kids you aren’t going to live uptown. If you are retired, so you have restaurants and shows, but no stores. The people that these condos will attract are young professionals. Not many 24 year olds can afford a $300k-1 million dollar condo. I know several people who bought condos to flip in Charlotte. Haven’t heard how they did though. I would imagine if they made big bucks we would have heard by now! Yep, the kool aids almost run out!
Same problem here in S. FL. Thousands of condos in Palm Beach (urban) that many young professionals would love to live in (me included). However, the prices are just out of the strasosphere, especially if your targeting the 25-35 crowd. How many people in this age group make 100K a year in S. FL? And that’s just entry level, 300-500K gets a decent condo. 1M for something you would be really happy with.
These downtown developments in this area were targeted at yuppies as they were being built. As the prices doubled and tripled, the mantra then turned to “retirees are coming to buy them all up”. And now its “rich retirees from the north are going to buy them all”.
I don’t know many retired people that want to live on the 25th floor of a downtown high rise condo. I know lots of yuppies that want to live there, but until the price is about 1/2, can’t even consider it.
“I don’t know many retired people that want to live on the 25th floor of a downtown high rise condo.”
Got that right. If they can’t see the water or at least walk to it in a few blocks, hardly any retirees are going to want those condos, IMO.
I always thought that affordability was more of a driving factor in florida real estate not sunshine. It used to be low property taxes, and cheap condos and houses. Now that it is no longer the cases retires are heading to places like NC for that low cost housing that is no longer available in Florida. And why the asstonishment about the drop in prices. I was more asstonished about the run up.
Its a disaster. Will go down another 20% minimum
Strange because everybody in the official media is saying that real estate has bottomed. Read the wonderful lies from the people at Bloomberg today, december 28th 2006. You have the impression that these people are living on another planet.
That’s what I’ve been saying all along!!!! They sit in their offices up in NYC and read all the crap the NAR puts out and the developers….. If banks and investment firms hadn’t consolidated all their analysts….. to NYC, Chicago… they would have had local analyst studying the market. It’s hard to really analyze what’s going on in Florida by reading crap in NYC! I knew just driving around something was wrong and I hold a teaching degree. Wallstreet has really lost sight of reality! All the mega mergers of banks will be the downfall to this economy!
They perfectly know that it’s a lie lizzibeth.They don’t care. It comes naturally. And they make fortunes with lies.
Remember the Goldilocks economy.Remember how the “New Economy” bubble would solve everything ? These people are crooks, mafiosis and in certain instance killers and assasins. ENRON was just the tip of the iceberg and nope, nothing has changed except the dimension of the lie and their bubble.
“Just got back from Charlotte. They’re really drinking the koolaid there. front page of paper was “NC growth among fastest in nation, state now 10th largest population in country”.”
Why does that factual headline imply that they’re drinking the kool-aid?
Home prices didn’t rise very much in that area, so the fallout from the housing bubble is going to be minimal in Charlotte and the other major Carolina cities.
The coastal areas are a different situation. Lots of speculative building (condos especially) and rapid price rises. Not enough GFs remain, and the insurance increases that are plaguing Florida will soon hit coastal areas all the way up to New England. Look out below.
Bill,
As a former Carolina girl, I beg to differ. Yes, housing didn’t triple, but my home in Weddington, NC bought in 2001 for $400k was selling at the height of last summer for $700K. That’s quite a jump. WHen I visited last summer I was disgusted at what happened to that lovely equestrian community! The developers have taken over. Ryland and pulte came in bulldozed the beautiful trees to put in tract homes built upon eachother. According to friends housing has come to a halt. Contracts are being cancelled because the folks in Florida, NY can’t sell their current homes. Many of my NC friends just like my Florida friends have become real estate investors, realtors, or mortgage lenders.
No, NC won’t crash like Florida. However, they are seeing the prices drop. House similar to my old home are not selling. The prices have been lowered to around $629k. A couple have sold. Since these homes have been on the market months and are empty(sound familiar), I’m anxious to hear what the final sales price was.
I think all on this blog will agree that headlines when it comes to the real estate market are not factual.
Austrian economist Schumacher called it “capitalistic creative destruction”. Bubblemania rymes with hysteria and I don’t careeaaaa.
Ryland off 64%, Centex down 53% - folks that not a haircut thats la guillotine.
NEW TOPIC
in 05 RE jobs were 9.8% of econ
wonder how that number moves from state to state
NC,AZ,FL - bet it’s huge
Too many economisseds use a number like that to make the case that RE won’t hurt the broad economy. Bullsh!t. It’s isn’t the size of the GDP, it’s the rate of growth that’s critical. Doesn’t matter if RE’s only 10% of the economy if it’s accounting for 90% of the growth.
Oh, and I’d venture that NV’s likely tops in RE jobs as % of economy.
I eventually want to run out the clock down in Florida but who could afford it now.. The Ideal way would be to spend June,July,August and Sept in MASS then head down south but I think I will hold off until it blows up then maybe pick up something reasonable.. Have a Happy New Year Everybody. Thanks Ben for the Blog. Outstanding.
Honest Appraiser: what happens to appraisers now? On one hand, number of sales are down so that would depress demand for appraisals. On the other hand, banks are going to get a little edgy. They are going to ask for a second opinion at the drop of a dime.
“In fact, my sister shocked me by explaining she and her fiance had just closed on a small home for $175K (previously listed for $198K). Further, she didn’t even seem to bat an eye at using a 100% interest loan to make the purchase. Moreover, her fiance is in the construction business (80% of his work is in new homes), and he doesn’t seem concerned in the least about his employment prospects”.
The Kool-Aid must taste very good down there!
my old mans getting 40% off offers
on a canal
Wow, that is really low ball offers. Where is the city?
There are listing spreads from 350,000 to 650,000 on comparable canal houses in cape coral and 180 to 300 on dry lot homes. Vacant lot prices are evn further apart 30 to 120k
on dry lots .
Santa Barbara County showed Med price drop by 40%
check CAR website…
WOW….fantastic. Santa Barbara is the Naples of the west coast. Are the Santa Monica realtors still refusing to publish numbers?
Louie - could not find the CAR numbers. Can you post a link?
I have mentioned this before, but in my area (Palm Beach) the bottom is dropping so fast that it seems nobody knows how to price anything anymore. Identical condos, across the hall from one another with 50K-100K spreads on asking price.
Where I live now, I see people asking 650 for the home I am in, and others asking 550. Again, nearly identical units (maybe 10K in upgrades one way or the other).
The pricing model seems to be screwed up by the rate of falling prices/lack of comps that mean anything/and massive inventory numbers.
HAPPY NEW YEAR - Now get the F OUT:
ABN Amro to Cut Work Force
ABN Amro Bank’s North American businesses, which include ABN Amro Mortgage Group Inc. as well as LaSalle Bank Corp. and its subsidiaries, will cut their work force by approximately 900 jobs in 2007, ABN Amro has announced.
Hmmm, ABN Amro is the place that my mortgage was sold to a couple of years ago. Guess I’ll be seeing a new mortgage co buying their business soon. It is a 5.5% fixed mortgage - no way I’m giving it up.
Yep
“ABN Amro to Sell Mortgage Unit”(dec. 8 2006)
http://www.banknet360.com/news/NewsAbstract.do?na_id=6526&service_id=1&bi_id=
mean reversion - could be nasty
That gives you a ratio of 16.3 percent.”
“‘That’s off the scale,’ Kasriel said. ‘The ratio has never been that high. The median is 8.4 percent and the previous high, of less than 12 percent, was in the late 1970s.’”
Lawrence Yun, an economist with the National Association of Realtors: “… people are waiting to see when the bottom is coming … Due to dropping rates and dropping prices, it’s only a matter of time.”
“It’s only a matter of time.” As opposed to what? He gets paid for conclusions like this?
Off Topic, but interesting look at a headline by a journalist that graduated in 2002 and would rather be writing about Sports than housing:
Here’s a front page story on CNN:
Existing home sales price drops, sales are up; weak market shows signs of firming.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/28/news/economy/homesales/index.htm?postversion=2006122811
Signs of firming..huh?
Now here’s the author’s Resume:
http://www.aaronmsmith.com/resume.htm
This guy is qualified to put out a headline that says the market is firming?
Doubt this guy wrote the headline. Reporters don’t usually write them. That probably fell on some unknown online editor.
Of course, writing for CNN.com is a pretty good gig for a kid 4 years out of college. Of course I’m guessing he came pretty cheap.
“The seller of a Miami Beach waterfront one-bedroom dropped his asking price from $445,000 to $400,000 to $370,000 in a matter of weeks. ‘We’re starting to see projects being canceled almost on a weekly basis,’ said consultant Jack McCabe.”
No! No! No! There is no slow down, no bubble, no price cuts. Everything is hunkydory. The housing market has simply bottomed out says the WSJ. Tell that BS to the guy who is leveraged to the hilt and trying to sell in this market.
With a 75k price cut, I wonder what percentage of the developer’s profit margin just went out the window.
we have a soft landing scenario
recession smession
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20061228&ID=6305007
got the index number for 1929, say september
For those who Have Missed some of the Investor Scamming that’s driven the Florida real Estate Market Towards Disaster ” You Need to Read This”
“Just another Amazing Real Estate Story in Sunny Florida. Just last month they Arrested a Real Estate Development Company for Scamming Banks out of over 100 Million Dollars with fraudulent Sales and Appraisals . They Development Team was a Guy on Probation for Bad Checks and His Buddy with no Prior Real Estate Knowledge Yet Scammed the Pro’s for over 100 Mill !
Check this out for this week.
Things are going to Get Bad in Florida.
Sky Development Group, is at the center of a huge real estate fraud investigation that started in Citrus County, Florida .
Detectives say they think Natalia and Victor Wolf slipped out of the country in October, leaving behind more than 100 victims and taking more than $20 million from fraudulent transactions.
No charges have been filed. Investigators from the FBI, the Citrus County Sheriff’s Office and the North Miami Beach Police Department are building a case and trying to unravel how the deals were done.
For a while, Sky Development Group appeared to be operating legitimately. But problems with the company’s land sales started surfacing in October. Investigators say they don’t know whether the alleged scam was part of a long-orchestrated plot or a last-ditch attempt to deal with a plummeting real estate market.
One thing is clear: the elaborate scheme fooled retirees, seasoned real estate agents and big companies alike. The list of alleged victims grows daily.
Allegations include claims that Sky Development Group:
¥ Forged deeds and sold more than $1 million worth of property it didn’t own in one Citrus County development, Citrus Springs.
¥ Took millions of dollars for land without turning over the property to the buyers.
¥ Referred buyers to a fake title company managed by Natalia Wolf to close land deals.
¥ Took money for new homes it never built or never finished.
“This is just a nightmare. It truly is,” said Gail Tierney, a spokeswoman for the Citrus County Sheriff’s Office.
Scores of victims are searching for money and answers.
“Everybody believed them. Everybody bought into their scheme,” said Alex Hamilton, a Miami real estate agent who sold more than $500,000 of the company’s property and bought a lot for himself in Citrus Springs. “We’re all trying to figure out how they did this. We’re still reeling.
Note The ” Miami Real Estate Pro above who Got Shafted” !!!!!!!!!!!
Not to mention the Bankers , investors, and Poor People who ust Wanted a House.
I’ll say from what I’ve seen , 90% of Florida’s Market was a ” Ghost Market of Investors, Scammers and others chasing Quick wealth. Florida Real Estate is Toast for Years after this is all Over.
“Sky Development Group”
They even had a sense of humor.
The sky is the limit!
“‘You have to have people buying units to live in. Who are the speculators going to sell these units to?’ Goodkin said.”
GFs who believe the soft landing is right around the corner, I guess…
From the Reuters article: “Several years ago, McCabe began mustering funds, or “vulture” capital, to buy apartments when the bubble burst. But he has not yet begun buying and said it may take 5-10 years before prices bottom out and begin to rebound.”
McCabe used to say 5 years to bottom. Now it appears he is saying it could be 10? I could be dead before bottom is touched. What is up with this 10 years to bottom stuff?
I have got to find a bar that realtors hang out in and go eavesdrop on how they plan to present these numbers in a positive light…
If you’re ever in Tampa, go to Red Dog on Bay-to-Bay. It has a sign up announcing that every Tuesday night is realtor and mortgage broker appreciation night. Strangely (or perhaps not) that bar used to be known primarily for the bounties of a particular type of cosmetic surgery that obviously had been performed on most of the female staff.
That is also College Night and Sink or Swim.
Guess who is doing the sinking?
Bar, with Realtors in it? Doubtful, as they can’t afford bar drinkin’.
they should rename that bar “BOTTOMFEEDERS”
Miami sfh sales are down only 8% yoy, and prices are basically flat (down 2%). The prime neighbourhoods (Pinecrest, CGables etc.) are still selling well - it is my observations that once the listing prices are cut down to the peak level (or a little below), the place sells fast.
It is very frustrating, since I am waiting to buy in Miami, have about 600k for that, but 600k buys exactly nothing in the zipcodes I need - a 1960 rambler on 1/5 acre lot, if that.
Hard to understand what is keeping these prices afloat - foreign money?
I hope the inventory is going to go up again in Feb-March 2007, otherwise I expect the prices to be flat in 2007, and this is no good.
Let the fools buy first. If they don’t care if they get a good deal or not. let them buy.
You just need to make offers that work for you and forget about asking prices. You will find somone who is desperate to unload quicker than you think. Then you will be asking yourself if they would have taken less.
I read an article about that in the Miami Herald today. One thing that it pointed out that the numbers were compared to last Nov. which was unusually low due to the effect of Hurricane Wilma. So look out into December and January.
we are waiting to buy here in Ft lauderdale, and It is looking like we will rent at least another year, but I would love advice from anyone who has successfully low balled.
1. Concentrate on foreclosed properties. If your realtor can’t find them, look for another realtor.
2. If you find a house you like, pay an inspector to look it over before you make an offer. Expect cosmetic problems, but make sure there are no serious defects.
3. Make a very aggressive offer, but with no contingencies. Also propose a settlement not later than the end of the current month. Insist that they pay for the buyer’s and lender’s (if any) title insurance policy.
While some parts of the country may be nearing their bottom, be aware that Florida prices still have a way to drop because they went up so dramatically during the bubble years. Don’t buy anytime soon. Even a seeming bargain may not be one in another year.
Salaries for most jobs in Florida really suck.
1) There are a lt of people willing to do the work for less
2) Most jobs are call center and whatnot. Many of the good paying jobs were in RE and Construction
3) With these jobs disappearing and paying less, people have resorted to moving out of state.
All of this means that prices will most likely drop as inventory keeps going up up and away.
“Insist that they pay for the buyer’s and lender’s (if any) title insurance policy.”
Bill — any particular reason for that, or just the cost savings?
I’m just relating our experience with buying a foreclosure. In our case, we never thought about title insurance since we were paying cash. But as the settlement date drew near we figured we ought to buy a policy because of the potentially checkered ownership trail of a foreclosure. Danged if the bank didn’t bring a fully paid policy to settlement. To me that shows how much they want to be able to fully and forever wash their hands of the property.
if someone wants to see an insane forecast about how property values are really not that expensive compared to 1980 cough…
http://www.deam.com/deamWeb/dyn/index.jsp#
a bit insane to be quiet honest.
I was in the field agian today a drove the south end of Orlando, MSA. I covered a very large area and rode most of the subdivisions. Empty completed house after another and tons under construction.
It occurred to me that the way this is gonna playout will not be all market driven. Someone is gonna take a header and regulators are going to swarm the area and thereby shut down funding. Someone is controlling the money faucet somewhere.
I also visited several machinery rental places and found they were flush with bobcats, earth movers and all sorts of heavy equipment including cranes.
Excellent reports dimedropped.
You’re investigative reporting is first class.
The stories rolling in on this excellent blog are mind numbing.
I have been a serious doom and gloomer about the USD for about 4 years, and the housing market for about 3 years, including during the blow-off top, but had not fanthomed the expanse of this problem of oversupply, fraud, ripple effect, etc.
This is a THUD.
I knew the bread lines were coming but this is a disaster in the making of humongous proportions.
From the article,
["This market was too good to be true," said Lewis Goodkin, a Miami economist and real estate analyst. "But it was a market fueled by speculators, so it wasn't a true market."]
No kidding.
go figure who knew?
florida is toast!!!!!
YEEHAW!
Things have really changed since we moved back a little less than 2 years ago. What was 14 months to build, lotteries just to get a lot(because the builder didn’t want to build more than they could handle)…..David Weekly posts 50 homes for immediate move in and another 25 ready within 30-60 days. I don’t think those homes that have been under contract for 14 months have come into play just yet. 2007, even more inventory!