Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Graphs in the local paper? How about a letter to the editor? “People should have to pass a test to be able to vote in Massachusetts. The person from North Andover who thinks his taxes should go down just because his property value has declined is probably one of those who shouted and stomped his feet at Town Meeting.”
“Anyone following the real estate market knows that North Andover’s real estate prices are falling faster than other towns. You don’t lower taxes by reducing property values; you just lose money!”
Any speculators? “The new home market party started when Fortune magazine anointed San Antonio the nation’s strongest housing market. Out-of-town investors flooding into San Antonio this year have glutted the market with rental homes, and the average rent has dropped $202 a month since this time last year, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors.”
“At the end of October, renters had their pick of more than 2,000 homes. So far this year, more than 10,650 homes have gone onto the rental market, 22 percent more homes than last year. Kevin Knight with Liberty Management Inc. said the out-of-state investors had a different mentality than local landlords, who traditionally bought fixer-uppers. The out-of-state investors wanted new homes that required little maintenance.”
How about a poll? “Half of the responders to last week’s Business Pulse survey are optimistic about the national economy in 2007. Some of your comments: ‘Our business depends heavily on the housing market and next year looks bad.’”
“‘Housing balloon has popped, and the rest of the economy could go either way.’ ‘The economy is doing well everywhere except Portland.’”
Or foreclosures. “Nearly two dozen properties on Fort Wayne’s southeast side will be auctioned in a sheriff’s sale after their owner defaulted on the $700,000 mortgage and lost them in a foreclosure.”
“This foreclosure is the latest in a series of court cases involving Hicksville Bank and large numbers of foreclosures. Earlier this year, the bank filed suit against several local appraisers, alleging they inflated property values and hurt the bank financially when those loans defaulted.”
Or construction trends? “At her previous job, Wendy Laxton had a ringside seat for the Las Vegas housing boom, which made Seattle’s look modest. ‘I still feel Seattle is growing quite a bit,’ Laxton said. ‘When I go to downtown Bellevue and see all the cranes going up, that’s what Vegas felt like. I like to see that growth and renewal. I’m definitely optimistic.’”
Just regular statistics. “Following a national trend, the Alaska housing market seems to be cooling, with more homes on the market for longer periods of time when compared to last year. Meanwhile, the cost for homes and land continues to rise at an alarming rate.”
“Alaskans had 3,401 residential properties listed for sale in November, 52 percent more than last year, according to the Alaska MLS. Developer Chuck Spinelli, owner of Spinell Homes, said the inventory in the once-promising Mat-Su market just got out of control.”
“‘I can’t say the market has been dead, but it’s not increasing in proportion to the inventory,’ he said. ‘There are tons of builders out there.’”
Sarasota-Bradenton reported Nov. sales up 2% from an already pretty dismal number last year so they are calling the bottom now. Prices down 18% so since we were the first to crash the Realtors are saying we will be the first to bounce back….LOL. One minor thing they overlook is the absorption rate which continues to get worse because inventory is STILL building in this area. There is a nearly 2 1/2 year supply of houses not counting new construction and FSBO and more ‘For Sale’ signs visible than ever before. One area I’ve been keeping an eye on still has houses for sale that have been sitting since spring. Many are also for rent and huge amount of vacant newer houses. Visited a few model homes recently which are being discounted about 30% from the peak last Fall and one builder was playing ‘name your price’. Unfortunately you would be buying into a ghost-town of vacant houses…..most with ‘For Rent’ signs. I think we’ll start seeing inventory pick up again soon and we’ll be in for a another “silent spring” here in “paradise”…..
The inventory in Portland, ME seems to have lowered due to voluntary winter rests. It should bounce up again for the coming Spring market.
9/6/2005 352
9/19/2005 394
9/29/2005 400
11/3/2005 425
12/5/2005 406
1/3/2006 352
2/2/2006 344
3/3/2006 345
4/4/2006 351
6/4/2006 409
7/22/2006 477
9/9/2006 467
11/5/2006 437
12/15/2006 355
These are single family homes in Portland, Yarmouth, North Yarmouth, Falmouth and Cumberland.
November median prices for the entire state were just reported down about 4% versus November 2005.
The Spring market is shaping up to start out as a staredown between sellers and buyers. There are actually quite a few people who want to buy but they won’t buy until they can sell and they can’t sell.
“The new home market party started when Fortune magazine anointed San Antonio the nation’s strongest housing market. Out-of-town investors flooding into San Antonio this year have glutted the market with rental homes, and the average rent has dropped $202 a month since this time last year, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors.”
That says it all, folks. One magazine calls San Antonio the strongest market, and the city is flooded with that must extra inventory THAT QUICKLY??
“that must” should read “that much”. Sorry.
The wealthy have never been wealthier or as numerous and they are forever chasing the highest returns. Meanwhile, Joe Sixpack can barely make ends meet. Well the wealthy RE investors are in for a haircut. But after the dust settles, they’ll still be very wealthy and numerous and everyone else will still be struggling.
The RE professionals will be rich and all the wannabes will still be poor and will lose back all they made and then some. Just ask Casey.
Depends on what you mean by “wealthy”. The poor, I agree will stay poor.
The middle class may be wealthy in turns of current RE market. Many are wealthy only due to HELOCs. Time will tell but from what I’ve observed, much of their wealth is on paper only and tied up in illiquid assetts.
The Uber-wealthy on the other hand, should have majority of assetts in principle protected strategies and will stay as top dogs.
No, a huge number of the wealthy will go bust. A lot of wealthy people are quite stupid.
A lot of people with inherited wealth are stupid. Those who made for themselves tend to be smarter, unless you are talking of sports and movie stars…
Agreed. I think Patriotic Bear ought to pick up a copy of Stanley and Danko’s “The Millionaire Next Door.” Most millionaires are small business owners, drive modest cars, wear cheap watches, shop at ho-hum stores such as Sears, and live in very modest homes that are not in upscale neighborhoods. The small minority of millionaires are there due to fame (movie stars, sports stars) and have no significance at all. It’s no surprise they tend to feel guilty about their station in life and that’s where the term “limousine liberal” comes from. I would not cross the street for $10,000 to hobnob with the “in” crowd. I personally knew a woman who had connections to go to all the Hollywood Parties. She had some photo albums of her with a whole bunch of hot shots. I was not impressed.
stupid enough not to pay somebody to manage their money for them?
Oh, yes, that works very well… so long as you pick the right person. But how do you know who the right person is?
I think I could and would manage my own money even if I had 10x the amount I do have. It’s just too risky to let someone else “help” me with my life’s savings.
There are many people checking in and out of the “Wealth Hotel” all of the time.
The only people who are truly confortable with their wealth are the people who created it for themselves. All others (sports, entertainment, lottery, inheritance, TV evangelists, etc…) are either scared of or ashamed of their money, or both.
The only wealthy who can truly be expected to preserve or grow their wealth are the self-made. All others will tend to piss it away; although those who seek professional help from the finacial services industry will tend to piss it away at a slower rate, as they become an ‘income stream” for the “professional” financial services firms.
Examples of (sports, entertainment, etc…) people who piss it away slowly:
Andre Agassi - lost millions (not including opportunity cost) in the sale of a home in Tiburon, CA - chronicled in this blog;
Any number of sports people who used their name to try and do an (failed) upscale restaurant - Michael Jordan in Chicago, Johhny Bench in Cincinnati.
Examples of people who pissed it away very quickly:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: plowed what was believed to have been the last of his millions into a mansion in LA that burned to the ground uninsured;
Tony Dorsett: Never really even saw his millions, had to get an advance from his employer (while in the prime of his career) to pay the IRS, retired from the NFL in 1990 essentially broke. In an October 2000 interview, he had this to say: “I’m … considering getting into commercial real estate.”
The super-super stars of show biz can be expected to have very large lifestyles until death because of very huge initial wealth, royalties and also earning ability (Madonna, Tom Cruise, etc…). But certainly not because they are “money wise.”
The wealthy without any “earning ability” can not be expected to remain wealthy for long.
tcm_guy,
You couldn’t be more correct. Those who imagine that wealth, once achieved, is guaranteed forever are incomparably ignorant of history.
Wealth can be acquired in a multitude of ways but it can only be sustained by constant, prudent and humble respect for both current and historic financial trends. No one investment works in every economic enviroment, no one security is “bulletproof”, no one strategy is totally immune to investment extremes.
If you can manage to do the above reasonably consistently while living consistently below your means, yeah, you should retain your wealth. But what “fun” is there in that? Who’s “impressed” by that feat? How will living prudently and thoughtfully elevate what so many people seem to treasure above all else; self esteem?
location: Pensacola, FL
Happy New Year Ben, and thanks for all you do. This blog is a great service.
Does anyone have thoughts on information sources for deriving answers to the following questions based on zip code, city, or county? I would really like to develop a deeper understanding of the current real-estate market and affordability in my location, Pensacola, FL.
Housing Affordability Index (HAI)?
Percent of hoseholds that can afford (not qualify for) the mortgage for a median priced home?
Percent of hoseholds that can afford a home priced 25, 50, 75, and 100 percent above a median priced home?
Ratio of properties for sale per number of hoseholds in the area. For example, 1 home for sale for every 15 households.
Percent of households with mortgages that also have home-equity loans or other types of real-estate secured loans?
Foreclosure rate?
Savings rate per household?
Bankruptcy rate per adult population?
Debt burden, measured as a ratio of income per household, including credit cards, student loans, mortgages, etc.?
Any other useful information and data sources is very much appreciated.
If possible, please post responses here and email to:
djd10 /\/ AT /\/ students /\/ . /\/ uwf /\/ . /\/ edu /\/
Thanks and Happy New Year to all who contribute to this blog.
Can someone help me with this?
I’m looking for proof that cancellations are not reflected in sales figures. Does anyone have a link that can show this? Thanks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aFll0Y8wJuVQ&refer=columnist_baum
I believe cancellations are higher now than they were when this article was written.
Here’s one from the Census Bureau:
http://www.census.gov/const/www/salescancellations.html
Jeeez! Talk about moving the goal posts! It seems none of the numbers government departments post, including inflation, are worth the paper they are printed on. Amazing.
Specially inflation figures. The fiddling of the CPI figures is incredible. It allows the debtors to litterally steal the creditors without them knowing it. Want an even bigger bubble than real estate? THE BOND MARKET.
Perfect.Thanks to both of you for those links.
And I say BS to that - how do they know what house is what when another builder takes over a development. Where I live a builder from Idaho came in and started builder starter homes. After 30 or so homes were built he sold the remaining inventory to Soundbuilthomes.com
Remember, they’re running out of land in Alaska!!
Happy New Year, all.
I just updated the inventory in Portland and very clearly, in the last two weeks, considerably more properties were removed from the listings for a winter rest:
9/6/2005 352
9/19/2005 394
9/29/2005 400
11/3/2005 425
12/5/2005 406
1/3/2006 352
2/2/2006 344
3/3/2006 345
4/4/2006 351
6/4/2006 409
7/22/2006 477
9/9/2006 467
11/5/2006 437
12/15/2006 355
12/30/2006 311
This trend is more pronounced than a year ago.
These are single family homes in Portland, Yarmouth, North Yarmouth, Falmouth and Cumberland.
Look for a lot of well rested properties reappearing in the listings by the end of February.
Portland - I’ve been looking at mid-coast (mostly ocean front) listings for about a year. I have a “favorites” file that I keep on some realtor’s website - nothing, absolutely nothing, has disappeared from the MLS in that time. Prices are WAY too high to move the inventory. It’s that simple.
There is a 15 acre farm in Washington County with ‘500 feet of rock beach - it has been reduced three times for a total of 30% and there are no takers. From the outside looking in, Maine is in trouble.
People in our development here just sold for $750,000. I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices in the affluent areas in the Portland area drop by 10% versus their peaks.
The people are still coming into greater Portland as equity bandits from NY, NJ, Mass, Ct, California, etc. They think these prices are cheap.
As for midcoast, I don’t know. As for Washington County, I’m not surprised. The whole Washington County area is speculative in the sense that if enough development occurs over the nest 10-20 years it will be a great place to be. Right now it’s way too desolate for most people’s taste. BTW, many get their deep water ocean frontage down there only to find out it’s often too foggy, damp and cold. Many familiar with the area prefer lakefront - warmer temps and infinitely warmer H2O.
Portlander, I was in Kittery and York Harbor, for Christ’s sake, over Thanksgiving. Everything is for sale, and has been, by all accounts, for a year or more. Nothing is moving there, either, 90 minutes from Boston. Never mind Washington County. The “For Sale” signs were everywhere.
I think you unwittingly hit the nail on the head when you said you knew lots of people who wanted to buy, but couldn’t until their current properties sold. Duh. They won’t, without price reductions that will in turn limit buy-up ability. Duh.
Some of the price tags hanging off the houses on or near the ocean were profound. Tee hee. I can’t wait.
“I was in Kittery and York Harbor, for Christ’s sake, over Thanksgiving. Everything is for sale, and has been, by all accounts, for a year or more”.
I think there are two types of residences in places like Kittery and York - year round and weekend/summer. Much of what you saw by the ocean could have been weekend/summer getaways. A lot of Bostonians have second homes in these southern Maine beach towns - those that don’t want quite the craziness one finds on Cape Cod.
Like the second homes on the Cape, the Vineyard and many other places with second homes, the toys have been placed on the market.
I’m personally salivating for when Sunday River condos plummet. That’s a matter of when, not if as the area is so overbuilt.
All that said, Portland and some of its burbs are not heavily built with Bostonian getaways. What we do get are a lot of snowbirds. These are older people whose kids are already put through college and who are often retired, both factors allowing the annual snowbird migration. They tend to be a little better off and conservative in their investing as many are retired or semiretired. For many, health is an issue - they don’t want to be in Maine in the cold winter nor do they want to be in Florida’s summer sun. We just keep getting more and more people like this who think our prices are affordable.
So I see Portland and its affluent burbs experiencing a drop in prices, but nothing huge. Rather I see Portland’s fall at probably no more than 10%.
It’s an expensive market to live in relative to the local incomes, so you better bring your own reserves.
What can you people tell me about Henderson, NV? A bunch of Las Vegas freaks have been hyping it as a major growth area. What is the real story?
My armpits are a major growth area for hair but it doesnt mean they are a good investment. The same goes for henderson The las vegas armpit with crappy casinos and crappier homes. If they cant fill the vegas houses why would anyone want to buy in henderson
I live in Henderson. It’s a nice, quiet suburb but getting less so on both counts and very very overpriced.
Also, there are two sides of Henderson; “old Henderson”, which was the original location for the town in the extreme southeastern corner of the valley heading out towards Hoover Dam, and “Henderson, Green Valley”, which is the area along and south of 215 in the southern and south eastern part of the Las Vegas valley. Old Henderson has a surplus of chemical plants and older housing stock. Further away from anything interesting in the city. Green Valley is the nice but overpriced southern suburb of Vegas where I live and RENT.
If you are driving around, you can’t tell Henderson from Vegas, except for old Henderson. It all runs together.
If “freaks” are “hyping” it, you have your answer.
Forget Henderson — LV itself is toast, it just doesn’t know it yet.
WHEN SELLING HOME, IT’S A WAR OF WORDS
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/16350934.htm
Above link: Reports on studies of how to word descriptions of houses for sale, based on resulting sales price and time on market.)
Tidbits from Houston where I went out on recent drinks party.
2 people there were linked to RE : 1 whose wife worked in RE company as a marketing manager, the other was a veteran agent.
The one who was marketing mgr in housing company said his wife wanted to move to sales, but market was slow so the company didn’t want to move her at that time.
The agent noded with that and chimed in that a lot of people were asking him to sell their properties. The primary reason being property taxes. In one instance, a rental complex the person had for 20 years was up for sale. It’s taxes had doubled where the surrounding neighbourhood had been yupified with new townhouse galoor nearby. knock on effect was that it dragged up all taxes in the area. The landlord didn’t want to sell but could no longer make a positive cash flow.
However, he still had the “Houston is different” attitude to RE in that Houston never appreciated in the first place. According to him, Houston will appreciate at 5% (I beg to differ) whilst other markets will go down 15-25%.
The agent also said that he had put in bids on two adjacent properties to flip: Both $60k. Said the numbers would only work as he wouldn’t have to pay any RE commission but even on that, it would only work if he could get both properties. The location was in the hispanic ‘hood’.
From what I read and heard, 5% is actually what I am thinking. Houston’s market (or Tx) is different in that the land value is low (outside loop), and that really puts a bottom on the valuation. The new home sales at Houston this year is quite strong, 75000 units, and there are not many heavy discounts, which points to a appreciation year.
Few discounts, but they are piling on the incentives.
We went to central Houston today and I see that condomania is still in full swing. I like that building off the West Loop with the big “CONDOS” sign hanging off it.
Houston’s only for buying the house you want to die in. No one buys existing homes there. No one.
In the San Diego Reader, Don Bauder writes, “The bubble is bursting, as always the wee folks will be left holding the baloon’s tattered remains.”
He goes on to say, “the view that the housing downturn is ending requires a large pair of Rose Colored glasses.”
Bravo Don. I always enjoyed his candor when he was the senior financial editor at the SD Union Tribune.
“… as always the wee folks will be left holding the baloon’s tattered remains.”
Wee folks will be worse off this time than usual, thanks to the ravages of the subprime lending scourge.
Having lived overseas in a 3rd-world country, I can assure you it would be better for us liquid bubble-sitters if the middle class disappears into bankruptcy. “Rich” is relative. People in some countries can live rich, with servants and a villa, for only a few thousand dollar per year. Lets hope the Joe Soccer Moms lose it all.
Mark, for all their foibles, the middle class is the reason this country is (was) great. Let’s hope you are wrong.
The middle class in the US supports the welfare state socialism that will eventually bankrupt the country, as well as the many laws “to protect the children” that take away our freedom.
Mark, I agree with your statement in the intermediate term, but in the long term, after ten years, I think the government of the U.S. will be forced to cut entitlements. The U.S. government is providing us all sorts of incentives to do our own retirement planning and health care planning. IRAs, 401ks. Now Roth 401ks and Roth IRAs. Also new are HSAs. The gubment knows Medicare is going to be bankrupt very soon. The whipperwhils are calling for socialized health care. I hope we don’t get that. You can kiss goodbye the incentives for researchers to find a cure for cancer when health care is taken over by the government, the same entity that operates the public school system, and you know how great they are doing there!
> People in some countries can live rich, with servants and a villa, for only a few thousand dollar per year.
… with fences around them and with a dictator chosen to keep the poor, rebellious masses down and out. No thanks.
To the future of the middle class: I haven’t heard yet a convincing definition of middle class, which makes discussions difficult. In my view of the “middle class”, which is admittedly self-centered, the middle class values education and don’t live paycheck-to-paycheck, but are not rich enough to have servants. Other views?
Middle class is a state of mind, I guess. I would venture that one condition is to have a decent education or a major skill. In my mind it would also mean that you have some money in the bank to weather a bad patch. This makes me fear that many people might end up “falling” into the working class quite soon, which is not a nice idea to entertain….
Yes, education/skill and financial reserves were also my criteria. I wouldn’t call the people “falling” out of middle class becoming part of the working class, more part of the working poor, poor in spirit and poor in the bank.
A “state of mind” seems a psychological concept, and difficult to use in a discussion about classes of society, if it doesn’t show itself as a distinctive trait of behaviour.
I know it is very tricky to gauge the psychological factor, but it’s there. I guess it has to do with the middle class having certain “aspirations” different from those of the super rich or the hardscrabble working class. Someone with middle class mentality would find it demeaning to do a working class job, like being a janitor. I would suggest they would find it demeaning to do any working class job, even if it payed better money than a “middle class” job at the local bank. I know it is very difficult to explain, but I’ve seen it played out time and time again.
MIDDLE CLASS
There are strata in the middle class.
The middle class is largely the working class, working as janitors (low end) and medical doctors, lawyers, various professions requiring education and / or skill like carpenters, masonry, etc. Retail and hospitality are low end middle class.
Middle class are largely law abiding and have shared values of home as sanctuary, respect boundaries, are not violent criminals, probably cheat on taxes if possible, respect some degree of courtesy, manners, and have certain shared social expectations.
Low class are welfare, housing projects, usually slothful and lazy especially when welfare is not used for a crisis situation but is a way of life, not a safety net but a hammock !!! Much trash, dirty houses inside and out, foul mouths, bad morals, crime and criminal neighborhoods. The projects.
Upper class, well, that’s the mega wealthy, those who don’t “need” to work to maintain an elaborate lifestyle, and of course,
the ruling elite, of whom most are not even aware. They stay private and quiet, like the families that own the Federal Reserve. What? What are you talking about? See, I told you.
> the middle class having certain “aspirations” (…) Someone with middle class mentality would find it demeaning to do a working class job, like being a janitor.
I wouldn’t turn down to be a janitor, if I couldn’t find another job. I would try to see it, however, as temporarily only, until I have found something, which is more fulfilling, even if it is paid less, like being a teacher’s help. I have the desire to express myself at my job.
Custodians, janitors, are paid far more than teacher’s aide’s and are entitled to full family health benefit’s and union representation in California.
“Class: A Guide Through the American Status System,” by Paul Fussell. Very entertaining. Certainly accurate for the lower levels in which I grew up.
Go back there if you want to leach off the impoverished masses. The middle classes in the U.S. have a difficult enough time under the thumb of the top 1 percent plutocracy.
sd renter, do you have a link to that SDReader article by Bauder? I couldn’t seem to find it…thanks…
Just seeing the crop of for sale signs converting to a large crop of for rent signs here in Metro DC. Lovely home w/ plenty of land around it with good schools in walking distance would have fetched 800k easily 2 years ago now would not sell at 595k as a FSBO. So now a for rent sign is out front, but its jut not the kind of place people rent. If I had the funds I’d love to buy it. IMHO 595k is actually a fair price.
The problem is the number of people earning $150k+ isn’t sufficient. Most of those people, outside of this blog, already own as much home as they can afford.
Cest la vie, it will sit. I’m watching homes going from $1.38 million dropping below $1.0 million and still not selling. They won’t be a bargain before $0.7 million and even then I won’t buy until inventory stabilizes a bit (say down to 5 months). In other words, until the overshoot is finishing up, Neil shall not catch a falling knife.
Unfortunatley, I do have a waiting time limit. Why? I’ll start a family soon.
No, that doesn’t require me to buy, but I put a cost on each move well above the actual financial cost. At some point, the risk in nominal price decline is less than the value I put on removing a move. Hey, good topic. I’ll blog it tonight. 
Neil
Neil
Why do people think of $595K as a fair price? It is because of the anchoring effect, which refers to the way a lazy man comes up with an estimate of what a house costs based on recent comparable sale prices, instead of thinking through a reasonable estimate of ongoing ownership costs relative to the amount for which a similar home would rent. Of course, it helps you believe in astronomically high prices if you have been trained to believe that “real estate always goes up,” recently amended to “real estate always goes up in the long run,” or that the Fed’s plan is to bury the dollar’s reserve currency status.
(Keynes’ ghost to Realtwhores: In the long run you’re dead.)
Neil — even if you were to impregnate the missus tonight, you wouldn’t have to worry about school districts for another 4 years. So relax and don’t rush to buy out of some misguided idea that a 6 month old baby is going to even remotely care where it lives, so long as Mommy and Daddy are there.
Ditto on the Central Coast. Three homes in the neighborhood where I rent (Nipomo) were on the market for $900K - none of them sold and now they are rented (for about $2400/month).
In the Spring of 2005 some of these home were sold for $1.1M. My next door neighbor is a firefighter with a child whose wife stays at home - and he lives in a $900K (?) house.
Something is rotten in Denmark. 2007 WILL BE the new 1929.
Firefighters have got to be some of the best paid state employees in Cali. judging by the cars they drive and the houses they buy. Of course thats not always a good way to tell how much money you have……… I used to take pictures of the firefighter sticker ( hat ) on the back of 50K SUV’s .
I finally had to leave Cali for my own sanity.
Public employees are the real “welfare queens”. Modern buildings with sprinklers make firefighters almost redundant. The worst, of course, are public school teachers. They hurt children more than help them with their PC brainwashing.
How many teachers do you know? How did you get to where you are? Could it be maybe through education where a teacher was involved? I am a high school teacher and I see none of what you say at my school.
Marky tells us what his rush tells him to. It’s easier that way.
Public employees are the real “welfare queens”.
Tell that to the parents of a soldier in Iraq
Ya know a good way to measure how good a teacher you were is to count how many of your former students are now FB’s.
I am a high school teacher and I see none of what you say at my school.
Thank you WAMan for your service. One of the most influential people in my life was a public school teacher. One of the greatest men I have ever met to this day.
I wouldn’t worry about what some anonymous “punk” has to write about teachers. I’m sure you get plenty of positive feedback from the source on a daily basis. Thanks again brother.
No matter — you still can’t afford a $900K home on firefighter’s pay (unless you bring a pile of dough along with you from some other source).
is it less than 120 times rent ?
that’s fair
(Previously posted, but belongs here)
Ever check out the SD county assessor’s web site? There is some great price data available here online:
http://www.sdarcc.com/arcc/services/propsales_search.aspx
For instance, here are a bunch of recently-built condos in the same 92127 condo development (in other words, very similar in terms of the property description) which sold since May 2005:
ADDRESS PRICE PARCEL NUMBER SALES DATE
16908 ABUNDANTE ST $605,000 678 512 15 00 05-06-2005
16953 ABUNDANTE ST $650,000 678 512 01 00 06-01-2005
16863 ABUNDANTE ST $655,000 678 513 03 00 06-06-2005
16972 ABUNDANTE ST $618,000 678 512 43 00 06-15-2005
16964 ABUNDANTE ST $600,000 678 512 41 00 10-07-2005
16884 ABUNDANTE ST $590,000 678 512 13 00 11-28-2005
16806 ABUNDANTE ST $575,000 678 513 13 00 12-08-2005
16812 ABUNDANTE ST $550,000 678 513 14 00 02-23-2006
16809 ABUNDANTE ST $540,000 678 513 12 00 04-26-2006
16963 ABUNDANTE ST $558,000 678 512 59 00 08-28-2006
And now we see an identical unit show up on the market this week listed at $489,000, which is apparently $655K-$489K = $166,000 (25%) off the peak sale price in June 2005.
Here is the fire sale blurb:
“Motivated!!! Seller. This property is below the new market value.Bring all offers.”
Further examples:
$369,900 for 4/3 1,578 sq ft (listed on 10/24/06, REO sale, still sitting) = $234 / sq ft
$750K for 3200 sq ft (new!) McMansion = $234 / sq ft
(4 or 5 brs? — I forgot)
These are for homes that are priced to sell quickly, which means they will soon be the new comps. Thanks to a few guys (and banks) “screwing up the comps,” the new price in SD 92127 = $230-$235 / sq ft.
Of course if you require a snob premium, you can still find faux chateaus in the 3 br size over in nearby Santaluz listed at $1.5 million.
My punctuation was lost in copying and pasting in the above. It should read as follows:
“Motivated!!! Seller. This property is
belowthe new market value. Bring all offers.”new market value for what this week? anyone buying now is
just uninformed it will get cheaper by the month
I lived in San Diego for 5 years and am moving back this June. I was there over X-Mas staying downtown. I was amazed by the lack of occupancy in the towers all over down near Ralph’s downtown. I would give a very serious estimate that no more than 30% of lights were on during prime weekday nights at around 8-9pm.
Even with all the obvious vacancies, the new condo towers are going up all over a few blocks away by the ball park. There is serious money tied up in these things and I can only imagine who is holding the bag.
Ha! have a fun move to San Diego Dukes. Might as well go there, the Seattle median’s pretty much caught up to SD’s. This is no longer bargain town.
Bellingham properties started going back on the market the day after Xmas. Unbelievable, couldn’t even wait for Jan. 2. Things are getting very exciting!
i was in san diego around labor day and the amount of condos’ being built or already built was unbeleivable
from petco park to the 5 was one big developement site
Also, the GasLamp, and bars I used to have some drinks in like the Bitter End, were literally empty. So was Horton Plaza mall. My girlfriend suggested that possibly everyone was out at Fashion Valley, but I don’t know.
It sure seemed dead to me. Here is the kicker, the bartender at the Bitter End responded to our question of: “Where is everyone on what should be a busy night?” with: “People ran out of equity money!”
I kid you not, that is what he told us. Our jaws dropped. It seems that his boss, the owners of the Bitter End are putting in a high end hotel right up the block where the old Maryland hotel was. He said he spoke to them and they are nervous to get it done. It is all anecdotal, but it was interesting.
Dukes,
That anedote is a little chilling.
I have not been downtown in a long time, but I went to fashion valley to catch an 8pm movie about 4 weeks ago and was shocked to see that all the freaking movies were sold out unitl 10 pm. They have something like 15-20 screens. I must admit it is a vey different crowd from what you would have seen 10-15 years ago. We ended up going back to our neighborhood (Poway/PQ) to see a movie, no lines and plenty of open seats.
Oh my GOD, I’m such a loser! You mean all this time I could have been drinking on the house? Damn, and to think that I’ve been drinking bottom shelf liquor these past few years. That’s it, I might have to get a HELOC and join the dark side. Oh wait I rent, double damn, its back to the cheap stuff.
You seem to be just a bit too late to be given a HELOC on your rental
You never know. This could be the next bubble opportunity that Lenders have been looking for.
I’ve got box seats to this show.
I’ll bet the bartender is a renter.
Seems the renters aren’t in so much denial, as a the average homeowner. At least hte ones I run across.
I’m betting most are going to slowly bleed, like they did when the NASDAQ bled from 5000 to 1250 or some such.
!!!
Here in southern NH the market is slowing alot. I see alot of for sale sign and in some neigborhoods it’s almost laughable how many signs are posted. Summer of 2005 was definatley the peak here. One building had 4 condos for 189 grand. 3 sold for 155 and 160 and that was awhile ago. Many homes/town houses are under 200 and even 180 grand now. I look at the real estate pages closely and that was unhear off just a year ago. The 250-350( a nice split or colonial here in Nashua) is really flooded. With taxes on those at 4-6 grand a year people have finally figured out what I saw all along. It’s a joke! The median household income is about 58 grand/year. 300 grand for a decent ranch is ludicrous. Add a few hundred a month for heat in our cold winters. Some smart sellers have lowered prices and have sold but so many are just sitting around for months now(of course they have been relisted a dozen times).
Check out the increasing percentage of SFH’s listed in Portland, ME below $200,000. Note this is Portland, Yarmouth, Cumberland, North Yarmouth and Falmouth.
9/6/2005 4%
9/19/2005 5%
9/29/2005 5%
11/3/2005 6%
12/5/2005 7%
1/3/2006 9%
2/2/2006 7%
3/3/2006 8%
4/4/2006 7%
6/4/2006 5%
7/22/2006 4%
9/9/2006 7%
11/5/2006 9%
12/15/2006 8%
12/30/2006 9%
Prices are headed way up in Manchester, NH over the next five years:
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=House+market+ready+to+heat+up%3F&articleId=686d59cc-bc10-4027-ad7a-b5dc37bb40d2
Pump and dump.
Who is CNNMoney? Why should I listen to them? Go back to September and look at CNN’s 5 bubble proof markets. Yea you know what has happened 4 of the 5 have popped and Seattle is next.
Hey, that’s where I live. Can I have some of what CNN is smoking?
Chicago & Suburbs - No one is budging. Prices aren’t going down, listings are up. Homes are still selling, condo market is D.O.A.
I 2nd that observation. Chicago has a great mix of employment industries and a fairly balanced haves and have nots population. I think the area is gonna go down, but it will be fighting the trend all the way down.
Unlike many markets, inventory hasn’t really dropped in northern Arizona this fall. Here are some ads from the local classifieds.
‘Amazing Value on this dramatically reduced Verona! (Verde Santa Fe, Cornville). Seller is very motivated, submit all offers!! $468,500.’
‘Dramatically reduced! Brand new SW Pueblo-style home on 1 acre. Home has never been lived in!! $1,100,000.’
‘2br, 2.5 ba 1,400+ sq ft West Sedona. Huge reduction $254,900.’
Mmmmm…. Sedona! TaxChick?
http://www.gazette.com/display.php?id=1328253&secid=1
Colorado Springs has been hit by two major snow storms in as many weeks, costing the local economy an estimated $50 million. A slow month just got a lot slower.
At least the Springs has a ready excuse for slow RE sales. It wasn’t long ago we were reading about Florida investers chasing after condos in the tailwinds of 2005 hurricanes.
Report from riverside, CA:
On friday Dec 29th, I took a job trip to an older shabby residential district just north of Riverside dwtn in a forgotten tucked away area n. of 60 fwy and west of 91/215. It is a classic deteriorating inner-ring older suburban track, with pockets of abandoned properties, trailer-trash lots and aging 20’s craftsman clap-houses. Right smack in this area along 4100-4300 strong street btween main and market there is furious construction activity. A brand-new public school(Primary,secondary?) is going up, and Richmond-american homes has just completed 1-2 phases of its townhomes at 4200 strong street. What strikes me is that the developers would put up a new housing tract in such a deteriorated run-down section of riverside city. Also, the Santa Ana river is only several blocks away, and the entire area is squarely in a floodzone.
This is a fairly typical of example of the IE building boom, which is being repeated in hundreds or thousands of tract construction sites: simply plunking housing tracts down into any available open tracts or marginal areas. Some of these areas are in semi-industrial/mixed zones or in formerly rural ranch plots uprooted and replaced wholesale by instant spankin-new cookie-cutter stucco tracts. IE housing MO in a nutshell.
Hi, all. I’m just back from a short vacation trip to Big Bear with my family. While I was occupied most of the time with teaching my 5-year-old to ski (he learned), I did notice that there are A LOT of houses for sale in Big Bear (a big second-home market, just like Mammoth). I counted ten for sale signs on the way from the main blvd. to our little rental cabin about 10 mins from the slopes. There was one marked “in escrow” on a side street. The cabin that we rented also had a for sale sign and fliers. Also, I booked the rental just one week before the trip, and there were lots of vacancies, although the slopes were crowded. I walked up and down the alley behind our cabin at night and the lights were off in almost every other cabin, no cars (this is the super hot season in Big Bear). I don’t have any hard info, but it looks to me as if Big Bear is undergoing a process similar to the one the LA reported for Mammoth. It could be a sign of things to come in CA. I guess people will try to unload the second home before they let go of their main homestead. Glad to see you are all still up your usual stuff. I missed you!
undergoing a process similar to the one the LA reported for Mammoth.
should read: a proces similar to the one the LA Times reported for Mammoth. Sorry
Thanks for the report. I think last year was my final trip to Mammoth for a while. I was shocked at how expensive and yuppified everything has gotten there. There used to be a couple of good taco shops in town that I would frequent at night after beating myself senseless with a snowboard during the day.
Now it seems they are gone, but you can get “Wild Venison Chipotle Enchallada With Drizzled Mango Salsa” for the low low price of $34.95. No thanks folks - faux affluence on the flanks of an active Volcano, what will they think of next?
Don’t worry, it looks as if the day of reckoning is pretty close for Mammoth…
saw open house sign today in ny.
the market is so great people are having an open house
new years weekend
but it is different here
Was in north Tucson ( Marana ) today. Lots of homes for sale. Did a little driving around off Thornydale and Cortaro farms road. Mostly newer homes for sale the old brick ones I only saw one for sale. It was a re-model maybe a flip? Anyway about 240K for these smaller newer homes and many had flyers with “Motivated seller will pay closing”
Anyway the view south towards the moutains is beautiful. I hope that place doesn’t get californicated. Still the stupid banner is up on the west side of interstate 10 “californis buyers dream homes here” or something like that. Its near that giant hole in the ground they have there.
When you look at MLS listings in Temecula/Murrieta CA, a large portion of them are either short sales, bank-owned, or they’re in pre-foreclosure. And a fair number of the ones that don’t fall in any of these categories end up being pulled off the market and becoming rentals due to a lack of buyers. The market is dead; at least until prices get a sizeable haircut.
http://articles.news.aol.com/business/_a/real-estate-of-rich-famous-for-sale/20061229071509990007
Tyco International’s former chief executive L. Dennis Kozlowski, now in jail, has cut $3 million off the sticker price of his Nantucket, Mass., estate, to make it just less than $20 million.
The 3.8-acre oceanfront property is in Squam, on the eastern end of the island, about eight miles from downtown. There’s a shingle-style main house, a guest cottage, a studio and a garage.
The home was built in 1994, and Mr. Kozlowski bought it in 1997 for $5 million, records show. Listing agent David Callahan of Jordan Real Estate says the property went on the market about a year ago for around $20 million; the price was raised to $23 million due to the rising real-estate market, and has now been cut due to the market slowdown, Mr. Callahan said. The property is assessed for about $12.6 million.
In 2005, a Manhattan jury convicted Mr. Kozlowski of grand larceny, conspiracy and securities fraud in connection with bonuses and other improper compensation he received while leading the Bermuda conglomerate. Mr. Kozlowski was sentenced to 8-to-25 years in prison and ordered to pay $167 million in fines and restitution. In October, Mr. Kozlowski appealed the conviction.
Aside from being a top-notch scumbag, this guy’s a piece of work. He didn’t sell the property for $20M last year, so he RAISED the price to $23M because he thought the market was rising. Now he’s dropped it to $20M because the market is dropping. Maybe it didn’t sell at $20M last year because it was overpriced even at that time??
With that sense of perspective and entitlement, no wonder he is in jail.
North County San Diego:
The inventory reduction from mid-October to EOY 2006 is much greater than the inventory reduction in late 2005, based on what I’ve seen; though we had a similar (dramatic) reduction in late 2004.
Sellers are still delusional, pricing their homes just under (or above!!??!!) peak 2005 prices. Quite a number of homes coming on for less than their sales prices in 2004 & 2005 (either they’re out their downpayment, or their lender is). Seeing quite a few REOs, shortsales & foreclosures.
Some (very clueless) buyers are still buying, thinking the 10% - 20% dip is a good entry point. Good luck with that!
Not much going on, but hearing the nervousness in conversations around town. Most people seem to be vaguely aware of the RE slowdown, but many are in denial as to how low it will likely go and for how long. Hearing the NAR’s campaign that “this is the bottom” from a few.
Rents were rising in early-mid 2006, but seem to be stable right now. Our landlord was very happy to get our six-month payment. Told us how happy he was to have his “favorite tennants” for at least another six months. No mention, whatsoever, about an increase in rent. (whew!
)
“The inventory reduction from mid-October to EOY 2006 is much greater than the inventory reduction in late 2005, based on what I’ve seen; though we had a similar (dramatic) reduction in late 2004.”
I think the used home inventory level matters, and at year-end 2005, it had dropped back to 13,896 (on Jan 2, 2006, according to ziprealty.com). Today it stands at 17,041 — 23% higher, against a backdrop of slower sales.
Definitely, GS. Although the drop in inventory was fairly significant this fall, the inventory is still quite a bit higher than 2005.
Guess I’m just wondering if the inventory downdraft is due to hopefull sellers waiting until spring to relist, or the ever-present (according to NAR) “market testers” who have no intention of relisting if they’re not able to get their price — and are not in any danger of default.
Just musing… Can’t wait to see what happens this spring. It should be lots of fun!
December 29, 2006
Re: Mortgage Lenders Network USA, Inc. Notification Letter
VIA EMAIL/FACSIMILE
To Whom It May Concern:
Please be advised that this communication is submitted to your attention in order to alert you to the fact that effective immediately Mortgage Lenders Network USA, Inc. (“MLN”) will regrettably no longer fund residential mortgage loans. This course of action has been necessitated as a result of a lack of available warehouse funds.
MLN will immediately take all steps necessary to attempt to place the loan transactions that were scheduled to fund with MLN as lender, with another properly licensed lender. Additionally, MLN will (a) ensure that all remaining loans in its pipeline that are scheduled to close will be transferred to another properly licensed lender to minimize any potential inconvenience to the Borrowers and (b) not take further loan origination applications at this time.
In order to provide its customers with the level of service expected from MLN, MLN will focus its efforts towards its residential mortgage servicing platform.
While we regret submitting this notification to you, we feel it is in the best interests of the customers and MLN to focus on the servicing platform at this time.
Mortgage Lenders Network USA, Inc.
Foothills McMansions: They’re (not) lovin’ ‘em
Sales down in Nederland, Evergreen, Conifer, Estes Park
By Beth Potter
Special to The Denver Post
Article Last Updated: 12/30/2006 11:24:54 AM MST
Windcliff Estate in Estes Park, with four levels and 7,500-plus square feet, is for sale. (Special to The Post)Homes nestled in the foothills close to Denver usually have gorgeous custom layouts and are built on large lots with spectacular views.
But those unique features haven’t been enough to keep the real estate market from slowing in recent months in the hills above Boulder, around nearby Nederland and in places like Evergreen and Conifer in Jefferson County, according to sales statistics compiled by Metrolist.
Of course the housing market is cooling in Alaska, in fact I bet it’s frozen.
Some market observations from “The OC”
Real estate’s rudder
With housing market ebbing, commercial building will steer the economy in ‘07, experts say.
http://tinyurl.com/yzczns
Some even better market observations from our buddy Gary Watts…yes, he’s back! Read crispy and sunset’s comments on Lansner’s blog.
http://tinyurl.com/lzgbg
“Us: What’s your outlook for the local housing market for 2007?
Gary: Both sales and prices will be up from 2006. Sales should rise to our 10-year average of 40,100, which puts sales up 10 percent, and prices should rise 7 percent for homes and the 4 percent-5 percent range for condos.”
I predict YOY negative prices for The OC within the next 12 months. They are just a little behind SD in this department, but will catch up rapidly as the subprime subsidence plays out. But I am happy for Gary Watts that he has not lost his infectuous optimism.
My mom lives with my son and I in Sherman Oaks, CA (I rent) and she’s ready to live alone. I’m tracking some of the local condo markets. Talk about a drop…this thing is only getting started.
SFV Condos….% drop off their peaks:
Studio City 9/06 595k (peak) 11/06 487k -18%
Sherman Oaks(91423) 10/06 530k (peak) 11/06 496k -6%
N.Hllywd (91602) 7/06 585k (peak) 11/06 427k -27%
Granada Hills 7/06 469k (peak) 11/06 344k -27%
Norhridge91326 10/06 630k (peak) 11/06 302k -52%
V. Nuys/S.Oaks 91401 2/06 495k (peak) 11/06 410k -17%
By way of clarification, I gathered my data from 1/06 to 11/06. I doubt that any of these condos in any of these zip codes topped their peak in ‘05. Of particular interest is how quickly hard and fast 91326 (Porter Ranch) is dropping. -52% off the 2006 peak and is currently -44% y-o-y. IMO this mirrors the early ’90s correction, with greater voracity of course. Condos in the valley got creamed….and then the wave covered sfr’s and moved over to the other side of the hill to west l.a., beverly hills, etc…
agentjmf posts ” By way of clarification, I gathered my data from 1/06 to 11/06. I doubt that any of these condos in any of these zip codes topped their peak in ‘05. Of particular interest is how quickly hard and fast 91326 (Porter Ranch) is dropping. -52% off the 2006 peak and is currently -44% y-o-y.”
Wow! I know the area well. I don’t get it, in Simi Valley we have seen nothing like this. Prices sluggish and soft, buyers are few but no declines like the ones you have posted. This is what I have been waitting for!
Did this guy Watts start partying early? What is he on? Or maybe he is David’s lap dog.
Wasn’t this whole thing started by Presedent Bush and his goal to create an OWNERSHIP SOCIETY?
It was started under Clinton, with the capital gains tax break on selling houses after living in them for two years. This was in the late 1990s.
Although the tax exemption might have exacerbated things, I haven’t yet heard a good argument explaining why this tax change would make prices run up like they did.
After all, it takes a buyer to buy at the higher price. If there were no buyers (willing to pay a higher price than most recent sale), there would be no cap gains. Also, the tax exemption came at the same time the RE market was well into the downswing (and likely to move up, anyway).
IMHO, it’s the willingness of someone to pay a higher price than the last buyer that moves prices up.
One reason is the Monopoly money — easy to spend something you didn’t earn, especially if the amounts are much greater than one is accustomed to dealing with.
Suicide loans & EZ lending caused the real movement in prices. This brought in the speculators which exacerbated it even more.
Just MHO.
How’s this for a reason?:
When that 250K clear was passed, most homes in the US were priced well under that amount. In Seattle, a great home in a great neighborhood was 160-180K (same home now 600 K - over1 million).
Almost immediately (within 3 months) , those same homes nearly doubled in price to 260-280K. And why not? All of a sudden, you could keep nearly all of your RE profits. The selling spree in Seattle was wild that year and a new strong “bottom price” for the market was set - nearly double the “old” price.
That 250 K was not the *only* thing that drove the market, but it sure got the wheels greased.
IMHO, that would only apply to “move-up” homes where the extra cash from the starter homes was used for a downpayment.
The money usually needs to come in from the bottom (first-time buyers buying “starter” homes). They did not have the money from the tax exemption, but they DID have it from the lenders, mostly after 2001.
Around San Diego, prices doubled between 1998 and 2001 (depending on the ‘hood). SoCal tends to move in wild swings, and this kind of appreciation has happened before, in regular RE cycles. What has not happened before (based on what I know from my family — brokers & investors) is prices shooting even higher from an already unaffordable price (2001).
IMHO, the market was at a bottom in 1997. Things really were quite affordable. I was able to buy a 3/2 SFH in a working-class ‘hood for just over $100K in San Diego County. By 2005, that same model was selling for $475-$515. THAT is not normal.
I’m still not seeing how the $250k/$500k exemption made that big a difference. Prior to this law you could sell your home and roll the proceeds into a new tax free as long as the new home was more expensive. How many people do you know in the last 6 years that sold a house and bought something cheaper? I would argue that some people in the higher costs houses have not sold because they would now be taxed whereas before they were not.
It was started under Alan Greenspan, puppet for the private bankers who own the Federal Reserve.
“Easy Al”
because of easy money.
The Federal Reserve contracting and expanding money supply, they also orchestrated the crash of 1929.
Way too expensive but cool place
http://cgi.ebay.com/The-Only-Triangle-House_W0QQitemZ250057269611QQihZ015QQcategoryZ1607QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
Here in our part of North Park (south of Redwood between 30th and 32nd Streets) many houses seem to be selling after lingering on the market for 6 months or more. I don’t know what the sale prices are compared to original asking price, but these homes are not cheap. The homes are small, old, with prices upward of 650K. These homes sold for less than 200K just 7 years ago.
It’s getting hard for me to believe prices will ever come back down to earth.
Two homes on my Philly street just were delisted. On was built in 2003 and went for $775K. It had been on the market for about 8 months for $1.2M with no buyers. The owners are now going to spend money on upgrades and plan to relist later. Upgrades on a 3-year old home?
I have todays Reno Gazette-Journal paper. Scathing RE article in the Business Section titled, “Top 10 stories of 2006″.
“The Housing Market decline: Be extra nice to your Realtor friends this holiday season. And maybe expect their parties to be B.Y.O.B.
BY the fourth quarter, the Reno metro area’s median home price was down nearly 15 percent from the all-time high of $370,000 in January.
Realtors have taken the news hard, with the National Association of Realtors launching a nationwide advertising campaign to convince buyers that the market still is safe, the first campaign of its kind.
The good news is that it shouldn’t fall much more than that, according to national experts such as Moody’s Economy.com, which predicted a 17.2 percent decline for Reno by 2008. That would mean just 2.2 percent more to fall for Reno.
Key numbers: $57,600-amount the median home price is Reno dropped from January to October.”
——————
My husband and I just saved 50K this year by not purchasing a house as we continue to rent. Our rent is 1,100 mo and we dont have to pay property taxes (4K) or insurance (2K). What a savings!!!
The NAR can spin all they want, but the numbers dont lie.
SDZip = 16,191, with only two new listings shown for New Year’s Day. That represents a drop of 1000 or so over a couple of day’s time. Have all the sellers taken their homes off the market until after the Souper Bowl?
Yeah, I noticed a 5% drop in listing in realtor.com over the last week for zip 60187. Not sure why so late in the holiday season. Could be realtor.com is slow to change site and the owners really took the houses off right before Christmas.
WTF? Tonight SD zip shows 200 homes listed since 12/29/06 (> 1% of the used home inventory newly listed since last Friday, and 77 newly listed today — Jan 1, 2007) up to 16,260 now, which is an increase of 69 homes since just this morning. Didn’t these owners get the memo to wait until after the Souper Bowl to relist?
I usually get one of those glossy homes for sale from one of the neighborhood supermarkets. Finally got around to read one I picked up a couple of months ago. It was mostly condominiums in the Phoenix area. These are “new.” Dozens of developments. Almost all of them have carports, but no garage. Suspiciously reeks of apartments converted to condos. The prices are usually starting at $200,000 in those places. Ridiculous! My sister’s boyfriend lives in a development in Ahwatukee that was undergoing conversion after he signed a 6 month apartment lease. The development was threatening to get him out of there, but he had already signed his lease. He raised a big stir. Now they gave him month-to-month lease. And you know what? They probably sold only ten out of 50 conversions and they stopped the converting.
It is very amazing. This conversion craze in Phoenix was very short-lived. Can’t be 2 years. I think it was a 14 month craze and the supply of homes for rent provided brutal competition to stop the conversion in its tracks.
For you Phoenix bashers in the midwest: It’s 4:50 PM and I am outside on my balcony enjoying the winter mild temperature with my domestic short-haired cat right by a park. It’s gotta be in the high 50s right now…
Chicago was 60 degrees new year’s eve. Glad I live here and not in Phoenix
So what do think the temp was New Years Eve in Phoenix 150? Gosh just read a paper you do read don’t you Phoenix avg 66 in winter and year round 71. So it is hot 3.5 months avg 103 low 80 i lived in Chicago was born there it ain’t no tropical paradise. In matter of fact guess what , the highest temp ever recorded in Phoenix was 122 happens once in 100 years and for the last three years it has reached over 110 only 6times so don’t believe what you read most people can’t afford to retire here they love it but didn’t make it in life so if the “cat can’t get to the cream they say it’s sour?”
Yes, but you forgot to mention that on 4th of July, it was 115 degrees on your balcony at 4:50pm.
Nobody bashes AZ in the winter. It is the God-awful summer that keeps everyone out.
Can’t keep to many people out it is now the fastest growing place in America ( over 6 milion) and 5th largest city places like the rust belt continue to lose. BTW we have second place in Denver and on the 4th of July it was 103, i rather have 105 and dry air anyday? As for Chicago that is freak for sure the norm is lousy weather for AZ it is dry 335 days a year just put on the air and drive anywhere anytime it is very nice here if you can afford it?
No use trying to tell them ( rust belt people) anything, first of all they can’t tell the truth, have many relatives and friends in Chicago born there myself, and yes it has been okay but compared to what my cousin told me, it is still freezing at night and it rains and of course cloudy and drab as usual all know it can’t last the snow is coming, it is just a matter of time. As he told me when i make real money i ‘ll be in AZ in a flash and who wouldn’t.The people stuck in those flats or all look the same two story homes fake brick with plastic siding grass and a tree burbs see no evil, here no evil, they think the world stops at their snow filled door steps. We got out years ago, live a beautiful life, nice clean cars (two are open top) just got out of the pool two days ago swimming with the stars, yes the pool was heated contray it gets cool at night we love the place, but you do have to be well set to live here nice places and good things cost money, they don’t give away MBZ even in bad times?
Looks like there was a huge RE buying spree here in Western WA. over the New Years holiday- LOL!
Between Dec. 30 and Jan. 1, in every zip I’ve checked in both B’ham and Seattle, about 15- 20% of the houses disappeared in those 3 days.
Hmmmm….could it be they’ll be back on the list with new MLS #’s by the end of the week?
In West LA, there were a ton of houses for sale a month ago. Many quietly took down their for sale signs before X-mas. Anything that reads “sale pending” is asking for back-up offers, and many fall out of escrow. Tons of houses in my area that couldn’t sell are now trying (some for months) to rent for $3500-$6K (easily 2-3x what ANY of the much larger apartments in this area command).
Will they rent? Who knows, but any idiot willing to pay that much of a premium for a tiny patch of lawn deserves to get robbed.
Council Bluffs, IA.
A spec home completed late 2004 still sitting on the market. Started @ $249,900, now down to $209,900. In a new development area. Only 6 homes built, 2 occupied, and many empty lots. This project was started late 2003 folks. Ouch.
A quick check showed that a area had 8 new investors homes on the market all at 1.1 mill to 1.3 mill except for one investor who put his house up at 960, guess who sold. The other people were mad and said that man is crazy, another quick check shows that the 960 seller paid 717 for his house and the others about 807 to 980, i would think the 960 seller was very smart and the other seven are the ones who are crazy?