“A No-Win Situation” In Texas
The Statesman reports from Texas. “Builders started construction on a record number of homes in Central Texas in 2006 but slowed the pace as the year drew to a close as inventories rose slightly, new figures show. Builders started 16,743 homes last year, a 10 percent increase from 2005, according to Residential Strategies.”
“But the supply of new, unsold homes also climbed to a record level, prompting builders to start 10 percent fewer homes in the last three months of 2006 than the year-earlier period. ‘While the Austin housing market remains robust, it has not been immune to some of the negative forces that have shaped the national housing picture,’ RS partner Mark Sprague said.”
“Ted Wilson, a partner in the Dallas office, said builders ended up with more unsold homes as the cancellation rate on pending contracts edged up in 2006. Nationally, the cancellation rate climbed from 25 percent to 35 percent during the past year, Wilson said, and the Austin area experienced a similar increase.”
“Buyers are canceling contracts for various reasons. Weak credit is to blame for some cancellations for entry-level homes, and some contracts for higher-priced homes are being canceled by relocation buyers having difficulty selling their homes in slower markets elsewhere. About 2,900 new homes sat on the market in Central Texas in December.”
“The oversupply ‘will prompt many of the builders to offer deeper discounts and incentives,’ Sprague said.”
“Eldon Rude, director of the Austin office of Metrostudy, thinks the large publicly traded builders, which have been looking to other divisions, including Texas, to be more profitable as markets have slowed elsewhere, will build fewer speculative homes in 2007 to bolster profit margins. He also expects the Austin market to attract fewer investor buyers than it did in the past year or two.”
“Rude also expects fewer people to move to Austin this year than last. ‘This is especially true of the people that were relocating to the Austin area over the last two years or so without jobs, taking advantage of the huge increases in the values of their homes in other states,’ Rude said.”
“Travis County home foreclosure postings for the first month of 2007 will rise slightly in today’s auction, to 300 from 295 in December, according to a report. Compared with 278 postings in January 2006, however, foreclosures will be up 8 percent.”
“Many of the upcoming residential foreclosure auctions ‘had an upside-down loan-to-value ratio,’ said George Roddy, president of the firm that tracks foreclosures. ‘Simply put, the homeowner has borrowed more money on the home than it is worth,’ he said. ‘So, generally, the homeowner cannot sell the property for the amount that he or she owes on it, and the lender has invested or loaned more than the property is worth. This creates a no-win situation.’”
“The highest percentage of upside-down postings in the Austin area for January will be in Bastrop County. 30 percent of the postings filed for January are upside-down. Upside-down postings make up 21 percent of the notices filed in Travis County, 21 percent in Williamson County and 23 percent in Hays County.”
“Of the 20 counties tracked in North and Central Texas, Travis ranked sixth in total commercial and residential postings for 2006, with 3,713. Leading the state was Dallas County, with 19,184 postings, followed by Tarrant, 12,763; Bexar, 8,837; Collin, 4,477; and Denton, 4,181. Williamson County, with 2,435 postings, ranked seventh, just behind Travis.”
The Express News. “As the housing market cooled in much of the country, investors swarmed into San Antonio in 2006. Some real estate agents said out-of-state investors, mostly from California, Arizona and Florida, accounted for half their clients.”
“But that wave of investors meant the rental market for single-family homes also got flooded. The average rent dropped $202 a month since 2005, from $1,301 to $1,099, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors.”
“By the end of October, renters had their pick of more than 2,000 homes. More than 10,650 homes went on the rental market in the first 10 months of the year, 22 percent more homes than last year.”
“Since 2001, the number of sales for homes priced above $300,000 has jumped 115 percent, according to data from the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. Meanwhile, homes that cost $100,000 or less became increasingly scarce in San Antonio.”
“Ten years ago, more than 66 percent of the existing homes sold were priced under $100,000. By late 2006, that market share had plummeted to 26 percent.”
“There were signs by the end of the year that San Antonio’s real estate market might be returning to a more normal cycle. As of the last day of November, the number of homes on the market swelled to more than 9,000.”
“One side effect of a healthy housing market and easy lending requirements is a lot of foreclosures. The high number of San Antonio foreclosures in 2006 was reminiscent of the late 1980s when oil busted and the city’s real estate market crashed.”
“But this time around home prices were climbing in neighborhoods across San Antonio. So what happened? Lenders made riskier loans, including many that required no money down, said Jim Gaines, a research economist with Texas A&M University.”
“That caused some families to get in over their heads. ‘The biggest problem with all of that is if you buy a house with no equity in it, you don’t feel like you have a lot to lose,’ Gaines said. ‘It’s easier to walk away from.’”
“In 1996, 3,894 Bexar County homes went into foreclosure. This year, 8,837 homes did.”
“Ten years ago, more than 66 percent of the existing homes sold were priced under $100,000. By late 2006, that market share had plummeted to 26 percent.”
and by 2008 the 96 scenario will be back in place…
“But that wave of investors meant the rental market for single-family homes also got flooded. The average rent dropped $202 a month since 2005, from $1,301 to $1,099, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors.”
“By the end of October, renters had their pick of more than 2,000 homes. More than 10,650 homes went on the rental market in the first 10 months of the year, 22 percent more homes than last year.”
So much for REIC cheerleader’s “theory” that rents are about to shoot up and provide support for that fabled Soft Landing.
$200 x 12 = $2400 /year
That’s going to have an interesting effect on the CPI numbers.
yup, the whole “owner’s equivelent rent” factor was used to hide the effect the housing bubble had on CPI.
Now with the flooding of rental properties and dropping rent, this little fudge factor now stands to show something much worse than rampant inflation but actual Deflation.
Not to worry I’m sure the Fed will be able to solve this by substituting “Owner’s equivelant rent” with “Renter’s equivelant Ownership”.
And when crashing home prices start to bring down CPI, they will be able to substitute in “Debt Slave’s equivelant servitude” (which will eventually be substituted for “Corpes’ equivelent decomposing)
all in all I expect to see a healthy CPI inflation rate of 2% for the next century
CPI figures are used in rent controlled cities like San Francisco. CPI determines what percent a landlord can raise rents. OUCH.
Another big OUCH is that CPI is used to determine Social Security raises. The old folks who depend on it get the beating. Social Secuity is not an entitlement program but “forced” savings.
Hmmm, an incentive to stretch out insolvent social security???
“Social Secuity is not an entitlement program but “forced” savings.”
Wrong. It’s a mandatory wealth transfer program from grandchildren to grandparents. Unfortunately it’s also a pyramid scheme, and those same “last-in” grandchildren will get none of their money back.
I’d love to do a video where a retired couple in a wealthy community drives up in their big Lexus to a group of poorly-dressed landscape workers and say, “Hi guys, it’s the second Wednesday. You know what that means.” Then the workers empty the cash in their pockets into the wife’s purse and the couple drives off laughing.
The announcer’s tag line would be something like. “Social Security. It works for all of us.”
“Renter’s equivelant Ownership”
LOL
“Buyers are canceling contracts for various reasons. Weak credit is to blame for some cancellations for entry-level homes, and some contracts for higher-priced homes are being canceled by relocation buyers having difficulty selling their homes in slower markets elsewhere. About 2,900 new homes sat on the market in Central Texas in December.”
Gee, we mentioned weak credit quality as a shaky leg in the Texas market what, 18 months to a year ago??? Texas credit is absolutely horrible probably because the state is so debtor friendly. In a way I find that interesting because the state is so plaintiff unfriendly now.
Seems that the truth is starting to come out about the “hot” Austin/San Antonio markets. See my rant below
No more sub-primes for you …..
http://tinyurl.com/y2a8kb
If you can’t take the punch bowl away then the best alternative is just break the damn thing!
just got a company email stating that one of our major investors will no longer do less than 600 scores, stated income (even with bank statements), and interest only among other things
WOW! Credit appears to be tightenimg…
Hooray! Let’s speed it up!!!!!!!
Pre-bubble did your company handle sub 650 scores for loans?
Josh
x-lent news - about time
Yee-haw!!! Let the tightening begin!!!
make your deal yet ?
told my sister inlaw to stall on the corpus christi new build- offering her big incentives after claiming the price was going up- 5k to the good so far- telling her to get 15% in upgrades or pass
We live in Corpus and have been tracking south side and Padre Island prices. They are all stuck or have been descending for the last 15 months. Bad time to buy here and resale is only a slim possibility as there aren’t many buyers out there this time of year.
Upgrades, schmupgrades!
tx - she’s looking in portland Hogan homes ?
Hogan is the most overpriced developer in Corpus/Portland. My friend Chris bought one of their homes on the south side and he was (get this) 5 months late closing and still had to have fix work done for 6 more months! All that on a $223K home.
Hogan is the worst of em all.
Right, all the familiar signs are there; speculative buying slows, inventory builds, developers start incentive and buyers start to fold.
I think the most amazing thing was the percentage of defaults that are underwater! 30% in Bastrop Co? And when the building stops there will be serious unemployment. The pay is pretty awful in Hays, Comal etc, and good jobs are few and far between.
Bastrop is marketed as a low cost, rural alternative to Austin housing. Being only 25 miles away, most everyone who lives in Bastrop actually works in Austin proper save a few service industry jobs. Same with Hays co. where I live. So there really isn’t any difference in incomes.
It does not surprise me that these counties have higher neg. equity foreclosures than in Austin. All of Bastrops’s growth has been in the past five years. New homeowners usually don’t have a lot of equity saved up in the first few years.
I will not say that real estate is “different” in Central TX. Real estate here is governed by the same economic rules as everywhere else. But I’d rather take a 20% haircut on a $160k house in Bastrop than a 20% bath on a $700k house in San Jose. It’s just a matter of scale.
What’s the advantage of buying a house at crazy prices with no equity in it ? People are just plain crazy. I think that are really crazy, dumb and brainless. What a bunch of sheeps!
A quick few advantages:
1. If you don’t have money for a down payment, you can still get a house.
2. If the market keeps appreciating, you make money. If it doesn’t appreciated and you get “tired” of making the mortgage payments, you walk away and don’t lose any money (because you had no money down).
3. It takes awhile to get evicted, so you live rent free for that time while you trash the house.
(That is why these types of mortages make no sense for somebody to make. Buyers have little incentive to pay if the market doesn’t appreciate.)
Thus it creates even bigger bubbles.
Thanks for the info. Really amusing.
JimmyB,
You just defined “free riding” an old out dated scam where scumbags call stock firms and tell them to open a new account for a 1,000 shrs. of XYZ. Stock goes up? “Oh yeah, just sell it out and send me the profit”. Stock goes down? That number is no longer in service. We put a ruthless end to this back in the mid-90’s. MB’s gotta get with it. Oops, too late.
JimmyB
re #2.
This idea of not losing any money: PRESUMABLY, these people paid more for the mortgage (IO or whatever) payment, the actual payment on a monthly basis was more than rent would have been, plus they had insurance to pay, and property taxes, and probably other fees that are usually included in rent like garbage, etc.
So I’m thinking it wasn’t so free, at least for the majority.
Good point Ruth. They are plain stupid. It’s not so “free riding” after all.
Marc,
I suppose in a fashion that’s true! What I typically mean though is “having some skin in the game”. Had I plunked down 10-25-100K I guess I would just tough it out. But w/a 100+% loan? I think we used to call it the “midnight move-out”? It may have been cheaper for this particular brand of FB (and there are many) to have simply rented, no doubt, BUT what had there been further upside? It was a “riskless investment”.
ruth,
Don’t forget that many of these borrowers could get neg-am loans with very low teaser rates (1% or so). They could have had carryings cost which were a fraction of a fully-amortized, 30-yr FRM.
I know of a mortgage broker who bought an $800K house, 100% LTV (and used someone else’s credit). He stayed there for a year, but only made payments for six months. I’d expect this is beginning to happen A LOT. That’s why all these NODs and foreclosures are exploding.
Can’t wait until Q3 2007, as we should really see some action in the foreclosure market. The lenders who passed off $500K mortgages to bartenders and maids will get their due. Hopefully, they will have learned their lesson (or we will learn ours, if the govt comes to the rescue).
So where’s that danged genius who told us last month that Asutin was booming and would do just fine? If you’re still lurking here genius, listen up: Austin just got out of a slump in 2004. The reason the market rocketed back to health was one reason and one reason only: CALI EQUITY LOCUSTS. The fate the befell LV and Phoenix awaits Austin. Smart folks in Austin/Round Rock learned their lesson in the dot com/semiconductor collapse between 2001-2003. You couldn’t rent an outbound u-haul back then unless you sold your first born. Many, many people were headed back to NY, NJ, CA, etc and there were THOUSANDS of homes sitting vacant for quite awhile.
Think this time is different? Well it is as there won’t be anybody to sell all these homes to this time and the taxes will force others to sell against their will. Hate to sound preachy but Santayana was right. Regardless of how many articles proclaim Austin as the new mecca for all hip and happenin folk, the town will suffer the same fate as all the other overbuilt, overtaxed cities out there.
Here’s a flipper waiting for that elusive Clownifornian with a bucket of money and box of stupid. $258/square foot for a tiny old bungalow in Austin central? LOL! And that’s “reduced!”
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/256489019.html
The premium must be the location. Hyde park is a very desirable area for those with ties to state govt. and/or UT. Compare with other college/state capitol cities like Madison and this house is not outrageously priced.
The real question is how much could you rent it for? My guess is a lot more than the $1200 month that is typical for an Austin house. Typical housing prices in Austin area seem to be 105 to 110 a sqft.
We lived there in school. Now that was a long time ago but that price is ridiculous.
The yearly taxes will be close to $8K for the new buyer. What a deal!!!!!! Lots of state employees can afford those numbers, right?
If a house in Round Rock is worth $100 / sf, this is worth more than $200 / sf. Why? Location^3 and Scarcity^3. Of course, the condition of the house and its immediate surroundings are key.
BTW, Pemberton / Enfield command a greater premium than Hyde Park and are worth it (having lived there and enjoyed that location vis-a-vis the suburbs). Again - in these cases, Location^3, scarcity^3 and quality^3 (in Pemberton/Enfields case).
BTW, these things can go down in value (and did in 1985-90), but they won’t get hit as badly as the outer areas.
It seems to me that in flyover land housing is normally a depreciating asset like a car. Many peopl make $$ buying and selling and fixing up cars, but it aint easy and the profits aint spectacular.
Now flyover is back to normal. They should be rejoicing. Especially all the Austin hippies -they should enjoy prices going down so they rent on cheap=more money for pot.
Unlike the Berkley hippies? I see more 420 ads on Craigslist in the SF bay area than the rest of the country combined.
whats a 420 ad?
Hey don’t be ashamed to have hippies in your state. Anyway at least the CA hippies are staying in CA. Your locust population is mostly working class/retirees. Apparently CO doesnt have hippies, Eric Cartman drove them out.
Cartman, lol. Too funny, Tinfoil!
Never heard of it, either, so looked it up. I guess a “420″ ad is someone looking to buy/sell marijuana.
Txchick is up on her stuff!
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003171579_craigslist03m.html
have a friend that bought 2 condos there in early 05 - so equity locusts from DC too
Mugsy,
Is it safe to say that Austin was a speculation market of “last resort” for equity locusts? Btw, I despise equity locusts regardless of their place of origins but isn’t it remarkable how they still want to maintain all of their “distance business/personal relationships” to leverage themselves?
Hey! When are you coming down? The weather is great here and me and my new buddies are golfing all the time! I mean you try to be happy for them but you get the sense that in no time at all they’ll have found yet another place to “fall in love with”.
DinOr:
Last time they “locusts” descended on Austin/RR (courtesy of Dell, Moto, dot coms) they plundered Round Rock and left. This time, they’ll destroy everything and really screw the entire city over.
Austin was a last resort because the home values there were low due to the first boom of 1997-2001 but the appreciation went completely insane due to locust money flooding in 2004-2006. Austin jobs are there but they are not going to support lots of homes @ 300K and above with a 3% tax rate kicker.
UT and the state don’t pay THAT well unless you’re a tenured professor at “Berkley on the Colorado”.
Mugsy,
Thanks for the reply and I’m sorry they f’d up your little town. I have a good friend (retired session musician) that bought there maybe 5 years ago. Sure, his home has gone up in value but I know he’d rather things hadn’t changed so much. He’s a regular southern gentleman and I know he moved there to be in a place where people are still nice to one another, even if they’re total strangers. Once the locusts land….?
The IKEA store on I-35 is the nail in the coffin…….
“By the end of October, renters had their pick of more than 2000 homes.” BUY NOW or be confined to a homeless shelter forever.
Humm.. buy now?? I am sitting on about $700,000.. of investments. Should they return 10%.. that is about $70,000/year in additional income. If they return 20%.. that is about $140,000/year in additional income… tell me how the further appreciation in an already overpriced market could beat where I presently have my funds? (remember - risk is also a factor).
PS: I do presently rent… the difference between paying a mortgage and renting is going to my investment nest egg… making it grow further.
The Express News. “As the housing market cooled in much of the country, investors swarmed into San Antonio in 2006. Some real estate agents said out-of-state investors, mostly from California, Arizona and Florida, accounted for half their clients.”
“But that wave of investors meant the rental market for single-family homes also got flooded. The average rent dropped $202 a month since 2005, from $1,301 to $1,099, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors.”
Living in Austin, I totally agree with this observation. In my neighborhood, it’s common to see a for sale sign pulled off only to be replaced with a for rent sign. In fact, in some of the higher priced neighborhoods, ($250K to $450K) properties are getting swooped up the same day they are listed. The “investors” do not seem to mind that there is not a developed rental market for these properties (rents above $2500/month). Instead, they are willing to subsidize the renters for a few years with the hopes of rapid appreciation. In fact, there are real estate agents whom are holding “get rich quick” seminars in other parts of the country touting the big money to be made. Give us $100K and we’ll return $200K by 2009.
Also, we are seeing a flood of property flippers buying houses, painting them a nice “yuppie” color, redoing the kitchen and then dumping them back on the market for $50K more. Most of these property flippers seem to be transplants from California whom left town as the dust began to settle.
On the local end, the water cooler discussions just bubble about how much housing has gone up and what a great buy housing is. How, you can retire in a few years with the proceeds from your house.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
On the local end, the water cooler discussions just bubble about how much housing has gone up and what a great buy housing is. How, you can retire in a few years with the proceeds from your house.
Wait! I thought there was no bubble in Texas!
Hell there is a bubble in Iqualuit and Tuktayaktuk.
Instead, they are willing to subsidize the renters for a few years with the hopes of rapid appreciation
Renters aren’t the only ones who will be subsidized. Property managers will profit from the flippers who never intended to be landlords in the first place.
As to your reference to water cooler discussions: is Water Cooler Talk a lagging indicator of market bubbliness?
Also, we are seeing a flood of property flippers buying houses, painting them a nice “yuppie” color, redoing the kitchen and then dumping them back on the market for $50K more. Most of these property flippers seem to be transplants from California whom left town as the dust began to settle.
GET A ROPE!!!!!!
GET A ROPE!!! Ha ha ha…I remember those commercials!
P.S. Just saw a “Flip That House” or “Flip This House” with some chick trying to fix up a house in Austin. I don’t even think it was really close to downtown or anything so I don’t know how these flippers make money…especially when my bro-in-law (works for Pulte in Austin) is building a million homes a minute…
Was it this $200/sqft beauty in Allendale?
http://austin.craigslist.org/rfs/256634518.html
This property’s 2006 appraised value on Traviscad.org is $100,000 less than the current *reduced* asking price of $329,000. I hope the seller throws in some free earmuffs at closing, because the house is close to a very busy intersection (Mopac and 183).
its funny austin seems sane from a south fl view… this place, is KRAZY,,, theres u-hauls everywhere.
I’d say Austin is getting set up for a rerun of 1985-90 depending on amount of speculation (30% of the housing stock back then) and toxic loans, et al… There is a ton of this McMansion stuff out along 183 and 360 and 620 (now).
OT..
anybody see that HGTV special on the “Dream House” last night? It’s their annual giveaway, brand new super duper home…this year in Winter Park, CO. It’s in a 25 house development at the base of Mary Jane with a “clubhouse”…it’s way smaller than previous years, and actually the people who won last year (and many of the previous years as well) could not afford to live in these huge homes and ended up selling.
This year’s model looks to be their “economy” model…still very nice, but much less sq ft. Anybody from Winter Park know that development. Looks like it’s still being built out. Just wondering if anything else in there sold.
The giveaway house last year was in Tyler, Texas. Very very nice place but nobody on the planet would pay 800K or whatever it was for a house there. I don’t think any winner yet has actually occupied the houses in that contest. They can’t pay the taxes.
The Tyler Dream/Nightmare House was, as txchick57 said, a $800k monstrosity on Lake Tyler. The annual taxes would be about $23k/yr…..almost the median income for the area. Oh yes, the lake is at record lows so the waterfront has become a waterview. Then, to add to the equation, Goodyear is closing their plant in Tyler this year. Population is 100k and the plant employs 1,100 with the highest wages in East Texas. Local economic impact is projected at a negative $950M/yr.
These numbers are nothing when compared to metro areas but take THAT much out of a small city and it’s disaster……
From a local relitter’s listing:
“Sellers just got unpacked, installed custom blinds & privacy fence, but are getting transferred!”
House was purchased in early ‘06……Goodyear announces plant closing in Oct….house is listed in Nov.
Hmmmmm…..
Now is the time to buy because real estate only goes up! ROFL
Oh, one rocket scientist did.
I think the best part is the $6K dog run. Good use of the cash, people.
the give away house was in TYLER tx??????? I had to spend a fair amount of time there a few summers ago for business reasons, I would say that a very very very small number of people would be able to pay those kind of taxes in Tyler.
There is actually a lot of ‘old’ money (oil & timber) in the Tyler area not to mention some top notch hospitals, medical school + a couple of colleges.
Not too sure if any taxes are paid there at all. The city of Tyler actually owns all of the land around lake Tyler and the land is leased to the home owners. A similar arrangement in Arlington exists for the both the Rangers and Cowboys stadiums to sit on city owned property and allows for no property/school taxes to be collected. I’m sure the lawyers on HGTV finagled some sort of deal.
To misquote Leona Helmsley - ‘only the little people in Texas pay property taxes’
800k for a house in Tyler? I think the only benefit to living in Tyler would be the cheap housing. If I’m spending 800k on a house in TX it’s going to be in Austin
Yep, that’s what it’s WORTH; not what the schmuck is trying to get for it. I was in Tyler in December, talked to a couple of realtors who said the same thing…..forget the hype surrounding the house, it’s worth around $800k.
1) They don’t have title to the 1 acre lot……it’s a lease.
2) Regardless of what they poured into materials and other costs, that portion cannot be recaptured.
3) NOBODY is interested in the house….period
To your point, a real buyer will be looking to spend their $$$$ some place else.
“1) They don’t have title to the 1 acre lot……it’s a lease.”
That kills me. ROTFL. How long is the term ?
1st prize: a beautiful dream house. 2nd prize: 2 beautiful dream houses. lol.
The Tyler dream house was actually a few years back. The guy who won it did move in with his family. he loved the area, loved the house and was extremely thrilled about the whole thing. The only problem was that he couldn’t come close to affording the 23k land lease (in liu of taxes). Last I heard, he was holding out on a hope and a prayer that the money would maggically fall into his lap or the city would just let him slide. The whole thing was a great big embarrassment for HGTV, who advised him to just sell and make a little cash like almost every other “winner” has.
Going up to WP to ski this weekend from Fort Collins. Plan to do some snooping around at RE. Ironically, the resort towns seem to be strong. I’d love to find something up there “affordable”, but no one is budging on prices.
Was in Austin recently and saw some of the same ‘danger’ signs. Stopped by an open house in Hyde Park - an old bungalow for $300k or so. In the ‘office’ are of the house I noticed a whole shelf full of ‘flipper’ books (’But It, Fix It, Sell It’ etc). The house looked like it had had some cheap lipstick renovations. Taxes on this house would be $8-9k depending on appraisal (realtor’s sheet had taxes at under 4k - based on old purchase price and 10% appraisal cap probably).
Yea - right now, there are a ton of flippers in the Hyde Park area. It’s hard to tell the legitimate buyers from the flippers. Hyde Park has always been a desirable neighborhood. However, the houses there are over 50 years old. Some are over 100 years old. If you buy a house in this area, be prepared for a ton of maintenance problems. Don’t turn on the sink. b/c the plumbing is probably rotten; don’t plug in your laptop b/c the electrical is a fire hazard, etc… However, these are the very things that buyers ignore. The property flipper will simply replace the kitchen counter top and doll up the landscaping and forget about all the other problems – that’s for the owner to worry about.
And the flipper’s name is Doctor Jackell.
OT - When was the last time we had a market holiday for a President’s memorial service? Or that we had one that would create a four-day market closure?
I can’t remember this ever happening (and I’m 32).
Thanks and happy new year to all!
Stalling to increase “summit time” on top before heading for base camp.
at least cnbc was nice enough to air a mad money marathon yesterday, they should use that to torture the detainees in cuba
Um, there was one for Reagan in 2004.
1963
Fair priced flipper:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=330066492751&indexURL=0#ebayphotohosting
Is that house or a bear poopie?
a poopie
Fair price if you’re an idiot with money to burn:
The yard is grown up, obscuring the house in our photos, as the house has been vacant for approximately 3 years or more, according to information furnished to us. Additionally, there are some repairs to be made before moving into the home. Or, you may even choose to dismantle the home, and take advantage of the early-to-mid 20th Century materials and features found in the home. You decide! Since we are not experts in the field of construction or repairs, we invite and expect you to visit the location for yourself to determine the current condition of the property and the amount of repairs required to the home to bring it to your level of satisfaction! All bids are binding; Bidder is responsible for determining for him/her self the amount of repairs required.
I personally walked this property. It is grown up from being vacant & unattended to. However, the house is located behind all those weeds and growth! This is going to be a FABULOUS opportunity for someone willing to take a SMALL risk for a potentially LARGE PROFIT! We intended to clear the property, get a good assessment of the condition of the home, and resell it somewhere in the teens ($15000 +/-). However, circumstances and a TOO busy schedule have prevented it! So we have decided to offer the home & land to YOU, on eBay, at NO RESERVE, to the highest bidder! According to information we have obtained from Realtors in the area, homes in this area apparently sell in the $40,000 to $60,000 +/- range. In fact, a LOT at 1608 N. 6th St. was recently listed by a Realtor at $55,000 (see photos). Visit this property if you can, Use your imagination & FLIP THIS HOUSE!
Yeah, we’re too busy to cut down the weeds and throw some paint on this gem to sell it in the $40-60K range, so we’re offering the the deal of a lifetime. God bless America, you and every other creature who might bid on this big POS!
I love how often they break out the God angle in the description.
What a bunch of louts !!! From the ebay main page posting I can’t see the “house” at all! The thought that anyone would even try a stunt like this indicates that Austin’s RE market is in ozone land!
To tell the truth,I’m glad I read a lot of the comments from people who actually live in TX on this blog. Austin was a city on my list of possibilties, but after hearing about the property tax situation, I’ve axed it from the list.
To hear people in California, you’d think half the state is moving to Austin beccause californians are scared to death of “middle america” and somehow, Austin seems like one of those “near-Berkeley” kind of cities to them. I just wonder how many relocaters actually study every aspect of their decision not just for Austin, but anywhere else. Wikipedia is your friend for info on cities if you want to do the BARE minimum.
Austin is just like Berkely except that people like me who dislike people form Berkeley are allowed to carry concealed weapons
and what about the heat in austin?
texas is too damn hot for me
Just make sure you mow before the sun comes up or an hour after it goes down and you’ll be okay.
That’s what I think is the best defense against out-of-staters in the south and parts of the west: the heat and humidity. That’s the FIRST thing I ever hear from people when I mention these areas: “oh no!- the humidity!” as if they’ll melt like the wicked witch. As someone who has lived in the south, the northeast, and the west coast, you get used to any weather. I could deal with the miserable -20 in the north, the 90% humidity in NC, and the year-round fog and sloppy wet weather in SF.
The one thing I really like about Texas is the weather. I LOVE the heat and humidity. Thrive on it. Mow the lawn at 2 in the afternoon.
IMO you’re not a true Texan until you’ve mowed at 9pm with flashlights taped to your lawn mower.
Seems a lot like Bagdad ?
i guess that is how you stay in your size 4 huh tk chick?
2pm oh boy
except for the grass part
ROFLMAO
I know Bezerkely and I know Austin and I know guns…..you are spot on!
Property taxes are horrible in TX and unlike CA, they go up every year. And yes, a ton of californians are moving here…a co-worker was outbid on 4 different houses by californians and a sales rep in a new development i talked to said 90% of his business is from CA. I actually sold my house to an investor from San Diego 5 months ago.
I really hope they drive up the prices in Austin for the next 5 years while they crater in CA…we want to move to the central coast. Unloading in austin to a latecoming sucker and buy a firesale in CA is my dream.
Just wait until these new Austinites see prices dropping in CA and want to go back. That is when their ill-advised “investment” will come back to bite them in the ass. All the chest beating and throwing money around is well and good but when it comes time to sell . . . . ooops, you priced your natural buyer pool right out. Time to take a loss, sucker.
Coming from someone who has lived in Austin for 10 years: There are plenty of more desirable, cultured places in the US to live. I moved here from the east coast for one reason: job. Despite the high property tax and sales tax (no state income tax), it is relatively inexpensive to live in TX and the local payscales are more in line with the coasts than the midwest.
My best description for the Austin culture is hippie cowboy. Willie Nelson is a local hero. But so is a thong-wearing homeless man named Leslie (who ran for mayor) and is a 6th street fixture. This place is as liberal as any coastal city as long as you don’t venture too far outside the city. Despite being W turf, Kerry carried the Austin vote in 2004. Compared with larger TX cities of DFW and Houston, shopping and restuarants are limited in scope and nature. Hope you like Tex Mex or barbeque. That is all you find here other than chain restuarants. Go to the ballet? Expect to see folks dressed in jeans/baseball caps. Not that I mind, I just bring it up as to compare to other cities I’ve lived in. The biggest thing for me to get used to is the lack of outdoor activities. Skiing is a 10 hour drive to NM. Beach is a 4 hour drive. There is no public land in TX, so all outdoor activities such as hiking, camping must be done at local state parks, etc. which are very busy.
The Californian transplants I’ve met here really like Austin. I guess California really sucks. I don’t particularly care for Austin, but I don’t hate it either. It’s got its positives and negatives.
Dont forget Austin has a Hooters franchise every 2 miles. And the girls are soooo hot cuz its a good paying job in TX.
Hey also I notice all the ‘replacements’ of the fleeing CA Equity locusts REALLY REALLY love CA.
They are mostly mexican, and they are enjoying the paved streets, running water (indoors!) and electricity(when no rolling blackouts) that CA has to offer.
Given more stringent lending requirements that are manifesting themselves as I write this, how many less buyers will there be in the broad housing market? 15%? More/less? Wouldn’t this reduction in buyers make the inventory numbers go up all by themselves??
From an “investor” in TX:
“Can’t disagree more with you guys. Bought a single family home in RR in July, got rented in August and is cash flow positiv. I would expect it a very good investment to park rel estate gains from CA in TX for the next few years.”
Then, he overplayed his hand with the comment:
“At no place I saw so much growth in infrastructure like there. Job growth is fantastic, median income is high, crime rate is low, single family homes are priced well below national average. Major technology players are building plants in this area, Dell is there to stay. Land value is on the rise and builders costs are exploding. School taxes are being lowered 33% in 2006 and 2007.
IMO this market is primed to pop and it can happen at the drop of a hat. 1980 was the last major takeoff in this market and it’s about ready to get legs again.”
A guy nailed him for the investment commercial…..ROFL
Wow, I’m stunned. What was he trying to sell?
It’s from a Relitter’s blog. The debate was about whether TX is the best place to invest in RE. Relitter got hammered with facts concerning high taxes and insurance when a “guest” pops in to say TX is “perfect”. That’s all well and good because everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but the followup comment was cut and paste propoganda and he got nailed. LOL
Mugsy and other Tex folks
what do you think of hoganhomesinc.com
building in Portland
Read my post above. Hogan is not a good builder by anybody’s standards.
I sold my house in Dallas in December. We were in a fairly high demand area (Uptown / Oak Lawn) and sold for $365k when the asking price was $375k. It sold in a couple of weeks and I priced it at the recent comps.
However, the volume of buyers requesting showings was only a fraction of what I had seen in recent years. In the past you could count on 4-6 showings on any given weekend, and we were lucky to get one this time around.
Texas housing will always have a problem because the taxes and insurance are so high. My house was tax assessed around $340k, but we paid $8k per year in taxes and $2700 in insurance. No state income tax kind of makes up for it, but that doesn’t help retirees which means TX excludes one of the largest markets. Being 100+ degrees at 11PM in the summer isn’t helping either and I’m glad that I’ve moved (renting in AZ now).
“I priced it at the recent comps”
That’s more intelligent than most. i.e. You did NOT price = comps + 10%.
I didn’t think anyone still mowed the lawn themselves anymore especially in texas
a lot don’t care for their lawn in texas, especially in newer developments. that’s one reason we sold our house. the “award winning” neighborhood went to hell in just 4 years…out of 300 homes, 20+ foreclosures, 30+ for sale at any given time, a dozen houses with multiple families living there, one former model house was occupied by a dozen high schoolers that just smoked pot and threw beer cans in the yard, we seemed to be one of the few that mowed on a regular basis. I’ll never buy in a new development again. I think it takes 10-15 years for a development to mature into itself.
I grew up in Spring, TX and in high school I used to mow lawns and do general landscaping (my dad said it built character, lol) because so many people didn’t want to do the work in 100 degree summer heat and humidity. Many people took pride in their landscaping but others could care less. From what I could remember, they had some sort of HOA in our ‘hood that kept the lawns from getting totally out of control but I don’t think they could really do anything legally.
Whew, I’m sweating just thinking of all that work I used to do…and for next to nothing…lol
Right now, Austin has a lot of positives. We have a balanced market in terms of affordability. The median home price is $177K while a nice starter home can be purchased for $130K. Traffic is bearable and there are a lot of outdoorsy amenities (lakes, jogging trains, hill country bicycling) etc.
However, all this is starting to change. We are seeing a tremendous influx of people. A lot of these people are carpet baggers from the coasts whom are brining their problems with them. Urban sprawl is swallowing up the hill country and clogging the freeways. The home buyers (and investors) have brought their California sensibilities with them and continue to drive up housing prices. It’s definitely changing the character of the town.
Not sure what to make of this. We sold a house in Richardson (Collin County) almost 4 years ago….Nice house,nice area, for 322K…..I just saw it listed for sale on MLS for 349K. 2% appreciation per year? No bubble?
Lots of people in Cali and NY look down at those of us in what they call “flyover country.” In their eyes we’re rubes and unsophisticated, dumb “red staters” who are simply easy marks for their real estate killings. We’re not as smart as they are.
But who are the real rubes? I say it’s the morons who think it’s reasonable to pay $600k for a lousy tract house in some distant desert suburb 50 miles from work with a crazy loan.
Real nice description. These people exist and the same types are paying about the same prices in stupid places in Canada at about the same price. Most of them are stupid Brits and Americans. What’s new ! Sorry but it’s true. The morons are buying properties at ski resorts like Mont Tremblant in the north. But there is a little problem? The snow is vanishing as fast as the bubble. Suckers!
Do people think the market is currently falling or simply going to fall in the near future. Looking at the months of inventory on the Austin market its still relatively low Austin Market Stats. New home builders might be getting screwed because in Austin people are more interested in properties decently close to downtown. But people are less interested in properties farther out like round rock. New home builders are more or less regulated to farther out areas because that is the only place they can buy large tracts of land. I am not saying anything about what is going to happen but just what seems to be happening currently. Which is there doesnt seem to be alot of inventory for all of Austin in general but when you specifically look at builders of new homes they might be dealing with more inventory than they planned on holding and alot of it is in areas that are not that sought over.
there was a report on thr news that said this is the 1st time since
1877 (yes 1877) that we have not had any nov or dec snow in the ny area.
global warming? wtf is going on ?
El Nino is staying put over North America. We are having really weird climate changes. El Nino coupled with global warming.
Expect seeing a lot of wacky weather this summer too with a lot of crop failures in Australia and India and a lot of floods in BC and California.