“All The Forces Are Now Ganged Up” In California
The Ventura County Star reports from California. “Brian and Karry Hill moved to RiverPark because of the promise of a dream neighborhood. But much of their utopia is still acres of dirt and dusty roads. Until the massive development on the edge of Oxnard is finished in coming years, the Hills will be living in a shell of what is eventually promised in the county’s largest new project in years.”
“The Hills like their home, the first they ever purchased, for its newness, location and as a good place to raise their children. The $630,000 they paid for their 2,000-square-foot, four-bedroom home seemed reasonable in the inflated Southern California market.”
“Officials recently have said prices in the development have dropped 10 percent under a waning market.”
“The development is sort of a ghost town in reverse, a neighborhood that inches toward a community every day while the few living there wait and watch. About 190 of the 300 newly constructed units, roughly 10 percent of the final vision, have been sold. The Hills are paying a higher tax to help pay for the new schools, the fire department, the streets and parks. Everyone in the development has to pay homeowner dues.”
“In the first weeks after she moved in, Karry Hill could see into her next-door neighbor’s home when she was in the bathroom. Blinds have fixed that problem. The home on the other side of hers is vacant, and when the wind picks up, dust from all the construction swirls about the neighborhood. In the streets around her home, construction scaffolding is more common than Christmas lights.”
“The day they were moving in, the couple left a wagon her father gave his grandchildren on the front porch. The next morning, the wagon was gone. The occasional graffiti bothers Brian Hill. At one of the entrances someone sprayed a tag over a sign promoting new homes.”
“The complex was expected to be completed around 2009. Now the date is looking more like 2011, said Tony Talamante, RiverPark Legacy project director.”
“However, these are small things in the grand scheme for the Hills. In years to come they will be in the middle of this new pseudo-city. Once it’s all finished, they’ll be able to say they were pioneers.”
The Press Democrat. “Sonoma County is teetering on the brink of a mild recession this year, as job losses and the housing slump weaken the region’s economy, according to a new forecast.”
“‘The chances are high, certainly over 50 percent,’ said economist Robert Eyler, who prepared the Sonoma State University forecast. ‘The housing market slowdown is coming at the same time as a normal business cycle downturn. That’s why a recession should take place.’”
“Real estate built up an outsized role in the region’s economy during an eight-year housing boom. Housing-related jobs now account for 13 percent of employment in Sonoma County, and soaring prices boosted equity that bolstered consumer spending.”
“Housing’s surge ebbed in 2005, when the county’s median resale home price hit a record $619,000. Plunging sales led to construction layoffs and job losses in real estate, financing and other housing related areas. More could follow, economists warn.”
“The price for a typical county home has fallen to $565,000 and may not have hit bottom. Falling prices leave homeowners with less equity to tap for buying cars, home improvements and other spending. ‘All the forces are now ganged up,’ Eyler said of the chance for a recession.”
The Sacramento Bee. “If you doubt there’s a frosty trend in the local real estate market, look no further than a five-month-old local Web site. At Sacramento Area Flippers in Trouble, more than 470 Sacramento area homes are listed for sale at prices below, sometimes way below, what their owners originally paid.”
“One example: A Folsom home purchased a year ago for $518,500 that’s now on the market for $360,000. Another: A Sacramento home purchased for $371,500 in fall 2005 now offered for sale at $249,000.”
“The local site was launched last July ‘to counter the positive spin (from Realtors and others) about how great real estate is in tems of appreciation,’ says its founder, a state worker who identifies himself only as ‘Max.’”
“Why won’t he reveal his last name? ‘A lot of people (in the industry) aren’t very happy about what I’m doing,’ he says.”
“Several local real estate experts say the site’s information is an accurate reflection of how far the market has declined in certain areas. ‘It’s a very real situation,’ says Mike Toste, a real estate agent in Antelope. ‘I’m seeing sellers take those kinds of losses.’”
“But he also points out that many sellers won’t bear the full brunt of the loss, because lenders sometimes agree to forgive whatever debt remains after a house is sold to save themselves the costs of a foreclosure. ‘It all boils down to loss mitigation,’ says Toste.”
‘But he also points out that many sellers won’t bear the full brunt of the loss, because lenders sometimes agree to forgive whatever debt remains after a house is sold to save themselves the costs of a foreclosure. ‘It all boils down to loss mitigation,’ says Toste.’
I’m glad this guy went on the record saying banks will eat ‘many’ of these underwater deals, so his buyers can come straight to him for some ‘loss mitigation.’
Amazing, isn’t it? That one jumped out at me too.
What about the 1099? Mitigate that for me Mr. (I’m) Toste(d.)
Short pay seems great…. until you get that pesky 1099 and have to pay taxes on a hundred grand, or two.
I wonder how many of these people can actually afford to pay on that? Well, not really - that one is easy: VERY FEW.
Debtor’s prison, anyone?
Not to worry… Installment plans are available.
with compounding interest.
They’ll call the “tax relief specialists” and believe they settle for pennies on the dollar with the IRS.
It’s like a layoff first laid off gets the best deal. Wait till foreclosure rates approach +200% YOY. You will see banks lay off mortgage prepares and hire lawyers to go after deadbeats.
Banks don’t want to start a panic quite yet.
Assuming the mail is forwarded
welcome back deb
Thanks, Ben. I feel like I’ve “arrived”, now that I’m on your site.
Congratulations, Max!!!!
BTW, if you and Paladin get together for a mortgage fraud site/entity, let us know.
I’d like to help fund & work with some other bloggers/posters on getting a fraud screening system — human and technology based — so we can finally put some fear into those who are involved in the mortgage fraud business (though most of the work would be off-line, doing research & reporting facts to the necessary entities, etc).
If you are interested, let me know. It would basically be what Paladin is doing, but on a statewide or national scale.
check out flippingfrenzy.com
this guy is way ahead of you, I agree there should be a ‘neighborhood mortgage fraud watch’ on every block.
Crash,
Yes, I’ve seen the site. It’s probably just me, but he’s a realtor; and I just question his true intentions (though he’s probably very honest, etc., I’d like to see something without a potential conflict of interest).
What I’m talking about would be something where we actually receive reports from people across the country regarding suspicious sales/mortgages. We look into the details, and if there is good reason to suspect fraud, we have connections set up with the appropriate entities — mortgage lenders, ratings agencies, MBS & CDS investors media connections, FBI, FTC, OCC, state atty general, **the FED** (so they can see, firsthand, the mess they’ve created), etc.
Basically, we do the legwork which these entities should already be doing themselves. That way, they have no excuse for not going after these criminals & fraudsters.
Just tired of all the lying, fraud, market distortions, etc.
Strart by arresting the bastards at the FED and the BOJ first. They with the BOJ are the real criminals. These guys are just petty criminals compared to Alan Greenspan or his buddy in Japan. The problem is EASY MONEY and EASY CREDIT.
Thanks for the cudos!
Yeah, Paladin is pretty busy these days, but we’ll see what happens. He is really fired up over the prospect, but I’m a little nervous about “naming names” at this point. (While fraud is rampant, I don’t think there are that many true victims, just a ton of mutual greed.)
The idea does have a lot of potential, though. There would be a ton of public interest…
“…(While fraud is rampant, I don’t think there are that many true victims, just a ton of mutual greed.)…”
I respectfully disagree. There are millions of victims who are punished financially. It starts with the taxpayers who fund bailouts, and the honest hard working families paying an exaggerated premium of tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars more than they should just to live in a home to raise their children. And it goes on and on from there. Let us not underestimate the negative effects this fraud has on the greater population as a whole.
Congrats on the write up. Great job on your sites.
It starts with the taxpayers who fund bailouts, and the honest hard working families paying an exaggerated premium of tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars more than they should just to live in a home to raise their children.
If/when there is a bailout, I will stand corrected. But for now, there are no guarantees that will happen. And don’t get me wrong: I do feel bad for people who bought into this thing at the peak, but don’t tell me there wasn’t just a wee bit of greed as well. Even with people “just trying to raise a family”.
All of 2005, there were people camping out overnight in tents begging to buy a new house. No person in their right mind would do that. Those people were not driven to those extremes by any rational motive.
Great! So what is your plan on eliminating fake/phantom bidders. I sure like to know… hate to deal with realtors with a poker face. ????
Guy at work tells me he just baught a home… here is
the catch
Sales volumne goes down 50% while inventory is up 100% YOY. Yet he had to overbid… His realtor tells him he has to overbid to get into the house.
I told him… its a bluff, its a fake bidder! He didnt listen ! Foolish?
That nctimes article kindas reminds me of the DFW metroplex (Texas) RE situation around 1986. A Nigerian co-worker of mine talked me into an appointment with another “Nigerian businessman” who was from a “good family.” I knew it was a mortgage scam that needed people with good credit, so I went there just out of curiosity.
Also, txchk57 whatever happened to the apartment complexes that where built in swamps (literally) around 1986 along I-30 between FTW and the big D?
Those where the same empty apartment complexes that where flipped several times at one sitting in bank boardrooms with selected invited guests only, including owners of new car dealerships.
It just seems like when stuff hits the fan with scams of one form or another these owners of new car dealerships are right there to rake in the money. There is this one owner of a Toyota, Lexus, Honda, and Acura dealerships who recently paid the SEC a fine of about $4.5 million for an illegal insider trading scam. He was raking in the bucks and his daughter too. (Google search keywords: SEC; 19252 ) How would you like to order your new $71,000 Lexus LS 460 from this man?
Owners of new car dealerships are not very ethical sometimes, and I would not even want to go to the same church with them.
Did you see this?
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/01/06/news/californian/20_44_381_5_07.txt
Yes,
This was the article we discussed this weekend where some poor victims were forced to invest in over $5M in real estate!!! Boohoo!!
I tend to agree that although this case seems like an outright swindle, in the majority of the cases the investor is just as sleazy as the lender, hucksters. This whole flipping business is meant to enrich the land wealthy while ruining the lives of the land poor. And the whole RE system is stacked against the poor fool looking for a home. Max and Ben’s sites and others are the only places where we can go and get the straight shoot.
Most marks are victims of their own greed. If the damage was limited to them only, I wouldn’t be so angry about it, but trust me, one way or another the lenders will find a way to make the rest of us ante up for their greed and poor judgement.
ya can’t cheat an honest man
There is a guy that said the same thing on another board…
He said …”An Honest Man cheats himself”
http://discussions.realestatejournal.com/RealEstateJournal%20Discussions/1
“”This was the article we discussed this weekend where some poor victims were forced to invest in over $5M in real estate!!! Boohoo!!”"
Tell me “forced” was a typo…
And when will you arrest the bandit at the FED involved in the fraud of unlimited monetary and debt creation. You can also include people from Golman Sachs and these bubble makers.
Bubble makers are the real crooks and they work at the FED and at places like Golman Sachs. Read this. It’s just soo disgusting.
Crowd Psychology
Last week’s meltdown in the oil markets was caused, at least in part, by an adjustment made by Goldman Sachs to its widely followed Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GNX, below). The index and its asset allocation are the benchmarks for large institutions and hedge funds, whose actions were likely responsible for the selling according to the New York Post.
The paper reported that “Goldman cut the energy portion by as much as 50 percent in some of the sub-indexes that comprise the widely followed Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, tamping down moves to buy them by large investment funds who mimic Goldman’s index.”
Max,
You have a great site. Requires lot of hard work. No matter what the RE cheerleaders say, I am sure you are accumulating good Karma points. The more people are aware of sites like you, safer they will be while making the biggest financial decision of their life.
Great work, Max!! I’m glad to see you recognized by the news media.
Thank you, Max, for all you’re doing. We have discussed your site on this blog before and its nice to see that you’re getting the recognition you deserve. You are a true American.
~Misstrial
Great job Max. Was looking at your site.
Congratulations!
What’s the link to Max site ?
http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/
When is someone going to do this for the LA market? I would be very interested to see what it looks like!
Well done, Max! Always love it when “the little guy” stands up for the truth and his fellow citizens against an entire corrupt, sleazy industry.
Good work Max .
Also, I agree with Sammy that the actions of the greed mania players will hurt innocent people, and it already has .
Or the sleazy FEDERAL RESERVE and the excessive funny money ?
STILL BELIEVE IN FREE MARKETS ?
Read this it’s about these bastards from Goldman Sachs. Very interesting indeed. I am convinced they will be trying the same thing on real estate to prop it up.
***************************************************************************
Crowd Psychology
Last week’s meltdown in the oil markets was caused, at least in part, by an adjustment made by Goldman Sachs to its widely followed Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GNX, below). The index and its asset allocation are the benchmarks for large institutions and hedge funds, whose actions were likely responsible for the selling according to the New York Post.
The paper reported that “Goldman cut the energy portion by as much as 50 percent in some of the sub-indexes that comprise the widely followed Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, tamping down moves to buy them by large investment funds who mimic Goldman’s index.”
“But much of their utopia is still acres of dirt and dusty roads. Until the massive development on the edge of Oxnard is finished in coming years, the Hills will be living in a shell of what is eventually promised in the county’s largest new project in years.”
Kinda like the Bluth family in their model home in Arrested Development, eh?
Oxnard is such a hole. It’s to Socal what Salinas is to Norcal. I work in Newbury Park, off the 101 maybe 15-20 minutes away from Oxnard, and I drive out there all the time. I can’t believe people are paying $600k for these homes, surrounded by illegals, gangsters and strawberry fields. Even if they fix the crime problem, who wants to live downwind of fields of manure?
My favorite comment from that article was at the very end. When they look back on their experience they will be “pioneers”
That one was almost too much for me. How pathetic this has all become. They say you can’t polish a turd, but whoever wrote that article sure is trying their best to do so. I don’t know that area, but from the sounds of it that couple is in for a world of hurt. I would be surprised if build out is ever reached there. If it is it will be long after that couple throws in the towel.
Yeah, “pioneers” — the Donner party and crew of Apollo 1 were pioneers too. Look how that turned out.
rob
That is just brutal.
Pithy, concise and applicable but brutal nonetheless.
“I can’t believe people are paying $600k for these homes, surrounded by illegals, gangsters and strawberry fields. Even if they fix the crime problem, who wants to live downwind of fields of manure?”
Before you get to the riverpark site traveling northbound on the 101 fwy there is the little sewer village called El Rio. Just looking at it traveling along the 101 and seeing all those seedy 8′ x 20′ filthy trailers inhabited by the poorest down-and-outs in ventura county makes me wince. The riverpark is a big $bullseye for desperate criminal elements/methhead addicts from the seedy El Rio crime pocket, Oxnard Chicano Gangstas and the white skinhead trash from Ventura City.
Gotta love it!!! Unfreakenbelievable!!!
It really is a not nice place to be. I go up to Oxnard twice a month for work, and that’s the reason I got Lowjack for my car. The 20-somethings I work with who live there are all unhappy about where they live, and can’t wait to get the heck out. They are so bored they drive an hour north to Chumash (sp?) casino just for something to do. At least I occasionally get to giggle when I drive by “Pawn Dog” on my way to the old 24-hour Fitness by the freeway.
RiverPuke is a “Bridge Too Far”. Already down 10% for 2006?…. Rutt-Rooh….. I thought EVERYONE wants to live in Ventura County… at any price….
no dude, only, like, Santa Barbara, Montecito and Ojai, you know?!
“Why won’t he reveal his last name? ‘A lot of people (in the industry) aren’t very happy about what I’m doing,’ he says.”
That’s because you’re supposed to bite the bullet for them.
For the greater good and all that…
The life blood of this town is real estate development. I wouldn’t have any friends at all if they knew who I was.
Amen to that one!
Hey, I doubt if the actual sellers of the houses involved care. They’re desperately trying to sell and you’re providing free advertising. Course I guess it’s hard on some’s egos.
What’s really scary is that with over $100k in haircuts certain homes still aren’t selling. UGLY.
LOL… I know a few homes in the SF Bay Area (SoBay-San Jose Santa Clara) where homes are selling at around $660-750K today. These same homes built in 1980 were selling for 189K in 1998.. so a cut of 100K is nothing to cheer about. We will need 50% cut to get back to fundemental values supported by local economy/rental/incomes.
I work in the industry too. I sometimes have to be careful not to reveal too much. I don’t particularly want to wear a bullseye.
I currently work in the medical device industry, previously the pharmaceutical industry. I’ve told you guys all about myself with little trepidation…amazing how bright many of my coworkers are and yet how clueless they all seem to be about this situation…
You’d be suprised. I work in allied fields to RE and everybody is pretty sympathetic and in soft agreement to the bearish view of RE.
“However, these are small things in the grand scheme for the Hills. In years to come they will be in the middle of this new pseudo-city. Once it’s all finished, they’ll be able to say they were pioneers.”
A lot of early pioneers got eaten by “Bears”.
Oregon Trail
“You have died of dysentery.”
That’s hilarious!! I remember that game about 20 years ago in elementary school. I loved it and died of dysentary quite often. Technology has come along way since then.
Technology = an over used term.
Increasingly used my slick and oily marketing mavens (puke!)
Lets go back and instead use “inventions”
as we always did.
Could I add “high end” and “upscale” to the list?
I think we could have a pandemic from all the polished turds folks being fed.
Not just eaten by bears. Think “Donner party”.
“Here’s One”
“I’m not dead..”
“Well you soon will be, your very ill”
“Well, I can’t eat him like that. It’s against regulations.”
That’s right, damn-it! We deserve respect because, come 2011 when this baby is completed, we’ll be able to say we paid twice the amount for our homes than all these Johnny-come-lately’s.
Pioneers of stupidity.
I was trying to come up with something that described these “pioneers”, but you just did it perfectly. Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade and cut the cute humor.
“Sacramento Area Flippers in Trouble”
Great site–I was not aware of it prior to Ben’s post today.
Probably, I’m betting, inspired by ocrenter’s site.
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
It’s Max’s site (also from Ben’s blog).
Love how Ben and the linked bloggers/posters here are getting some well-deserved recognition.
Great work, Max!!
I’m not sure when I saw the term “Flippers In Trouble” for the first time, but it was probably oc_renter’s site. He’s been doing flips gone bad posts since late ‘05.
I’m sure this data exists for all RE markets in the US, the trouble is getting a hold of it. I’m sure we’ll see some similar sites spring-up soon (alliteration!).
You mean alligator-ation, don’t you?
Alligator Nation!
The best thing is, all that publicity will translate into many former sheeple checking out the blogs and links, and, if they have one brain synapse talking to another, many will have a road-to-Damascus awakening, as was the case with so many who stumbled upon Ben’s blog. The realtors and NAR shills can tout all they want, to no avail: ‘Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall set you free.’
“The price for a typical county home has fallen to $565,000 and may not have hit bottom. Falling prices leave homeowners with less equity to tap for buying cars, home improvements and other spending.
Did these people buy “homes” or open jumbo lines of credit? How am I supposed to feel sorry for somebody because they can’t call the bank and cash out $35K for that pretty little 330I they saw at the beemer dealership because their house isn’t worth what they thought it was?
It’s also amazing to read crap like this while I’m here in Ecuador where the criteria for a home is a roof and a floor to sleep on. Maybe some screens and a door to keep the big a** bugs and rats out too.
Yep, an apartment in the good old USA is better than 98% of what the world’s population lives in even if it is just an apartment. This is still a very rich country.
Yes and these selfish, moronic bores do not understand that concept. It is their RIGHT to life in a SFH, you know….wtf
Well, kinda-sorta. We surely live rich, but only by managing and servicing an ever increasing, soon to be unbearable mountain of debt. Less than 1% in the good ‘ol USA are truly rich.
I think my idea of “rich” is in stark contrast to most others in this greedy country. Being rich, to me, has nothing to do with money. It has more to do with enjoying what you do every day, and loving life in general. Being content. I would hazard a guess that scores of individuals with some of the largest bank accounts known to man are miserable. That is not rich. That is poor. A lot of the so-called third world countries have a wonderful sense of community and family, and enjoy themselves on a daily basis, despite their lack of financial resources. After all, the greatest things in life are free. All of this materialism, consumerism, and keeping up with the Joneses behavior is rotten to the core. I watch my own family members buy, buy, buy and there is no fulfillment. They are empty souls.
Commie!
Just kidding. I agree with you. If you can’t live simply and enjoy life, you can’t enjoy life. I agree totally except for this, “keeping up with the Joneses behavior is rotten to the core.” Why do you have to be so hard on Ben? He’s just trying to give us a good place to vent.
“I watch my own family members buy, buy, buy and there is no fulfillment.”
Sure there is!!
For about a millisecond.
Then its on to the next “thing” they just gotta have. kinda sad really. TV is turning folks into impulsive, crap buying automatons. I watch as little TV as possible–as the incessant barrage of commerials drive me nuts. Seems like I mostly watch movies now. If I wasn’t so hooked on cool channels (with substance) like Discovery and History–I’d 86 my cable.
DOC
You’re so right! Getting rid of the boob tube is the easiest way to avoid all the garbage programming and advertising that induces people to buy useless items which promptly become clutter. Keeping TV out of our household has been one of the best moves wife and I have made in our married life.
I grew up without a TV - thank God. We learned to read and think instead.
When I was young I didn’t have time for t.v because I was making money on my paper route or doing something like that ,and getting alot of exercise in the process.
I’m not saying I never watched t.v. but it was a limited amount of time per week . To much real life to live to be watching TV.
Now that I’m older I watch TV more than I ever have but my favorite is the History Channel and a few other shows .
I believe crap TV shows like “lifestyles of the rich and famous” is the impetus behind so many people’s desire to have homes with vaulted ceilings that are nothing more than energy hogs to heat and cool. Homebuilder Toll Brothers ran with this; “you too can live like a dang hollywood celebrity.” Problem is, energy-hog homes are not all that affordable for the proletariat, and now the proletariat is just beginning to wake up and face the music.
Recently helped build a one room / floor home in Cambodia and was 6′ in the air, 12′ X 18′ with banana leaf walls. It was going to sleep 12 and the family cried they were so happy to get. Happy to rent and live simple.
God bless you for helping that family. You’ll have good Karma.
I recently helped a Socal family by building them an SUV. Leather seats, 4WD, massive sound system. The husband was going to drive it to work, 60 miles one way. The wife needed to drive the BMW to lunches, the spa, and the salon. The family yelled at me because there was no DVD player or GPS, and the rims were really out of stlye. They gave it to their 18 year old who ran it into a tree and blamed me because the cup holder was too small to hold the 78 oz Extra Double Big Gulp and it spilled in his lap.
(no disrespect, cmhappyrenter, what you did was great…just pointing to some differences)
Reminds me of why Oprah said she built her school in South Africa. She said, go to an american ghetto and kids want Nikes and an iPod. Go to a foreign ghetto and kids want a uniform so they can go to school.
Very rich for the moment. I suppose that is how the Spanish thought of themselves with the stolen gold from the Incas.
Don’t count on China or the rest of the world to finance eternelnally your “richness”. But don’t count too long on your luck lasting. It never does even a lot of you think you are soo special. Nobody is.
I remember studying the resulting “price revolution” in history class.
- Everyone in So Cal is entitled to new sports car. Now we have health insurance for all illegals.
“Now we have health insurance for all illegals.”
I had to have emergency surgery while on vacation in another state a few years ago. The real problem was that I have no health insureance. The bill topped $50k, and I was not in the hospital more than 3 days. They wanted me to stay 7 but when I found out my bed was nearly 10k per day I was like, “I’m outta here!” When it came time to pay the bill, they told me that if I was an illegal alien, I would have qualified for 100% charity, but since I was an American with a social security number, I would be responsible for the entire bill. Nice country.
That’s criminal.
Not to make light of your situation, but just have to add that if you had insurance and were a man, you could get free Viagra, but if you were a woman, you most likely wouldn’t be covered for the Pill.
Un-freakin’-real.
completely correct. Although many plan sponsors can (AND SHOULD) eliminate “lifestyle” drugs from their plan coverage…. As far as contraception, not covering that is penny-wise, pund-foolish, if you ask me…
I’ve read that argument so many times, but getting pregnant isn’t a dysfunction. Having difficulty getting an erection is considered a dysfunction. That’s why Viagra is covered but “The Pill” is not.
This is completely amazing. I wonder what would happen if you told someone that you were an illegal from Canada and that you have no social security number??
I mean, I’m assuming that the Mexicans don’t have to show ID, right??
PS - Already shot off a SCATHING email last week to Arnold about that free health insurance for kids of illegals proposition. He is out of his friggin’ mind! Ugh, don’t get me started!!
Good luck with that
“Falling prices leave homeowners with less equity to tap for buying cars,”
Good points, all. No sh*t, how about using your earned money to buy your pretentious POS car rather than some imaginary value rubber stamped by a novice appraiser! All these people financing glamour lives with their homes are a bunch of truly pathetic beings.
I am amazed that anyone would even print such a ridiculous line. Who the hell was riding the equity like this until a few years ago. Getting a tax break on interest paid loans for cars, boats, and liposuction seems like complete fraud. And to cry about losing such a slimy priviledge is absurd.
Bye bye FORD motors and General Motors. Good!
Less 4×4 and less fricken gansgters cars and f-cken Hummers!
“All the forces are now ganged up”
That’s not the half of it. The forces that shot the market way past fundaments on the upside are all conspiring to shoot it back down past fundaments on the downside. Liquidity, no-doc loans, speculators selling, equity reversal, ARM resets, out-migration, RE job losses, foreclosure increases, inventory runup… and the income/housing payment ratios are now all of a sudden becoming meaningful.
Gonna take a long time and a few miracles to save housing now, especially in CA…
In related news, foreclosures up 51% in Cali.
http://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/stories/2007/01/08/daily7.html?f=et204&hbx=e_du
Sorry. 51% nationwide. Up 94% in Cali. Up 175% in Nevada.
Gadzooks, so the President of Foreclosures.com says now is the best time to buy in the next six years? I should’ve guessed which side her bread would be buttered on, but it didn’t occur to me till I saw this.
You probably only heard part of the comment. Now is the best time to buy… A SUBSCRIPTION to Foreclosures.com
I still post but Ben’s site is so popular the subtlety is lost. I cannot even track the responses and mantain continiuity.
Never fear, just today I took pictures and scanned dcuments about Riverpark. I don’t “hate” Riverpark. Riverpark is a travesty, Riverpark is an example of excess in the bubble. Riverpark is a sad commentary on dysfunctional municipal processes. Lots more. I go on on my pathetic blog tomorrow. Oh and the newspaper reports the Riverpark disaster in progress today in order to get out in front of my reportage. Wait until I report on the HOA and Mello-Roos.
Everyone, thanks for the kind words.
Congrats to Max on the recognition for his site. Everyone should check it out if you haven’t already.
There is no telling how many ruined American lives have been spared because of Max and Ben and the other RE bubble bloggers. Thank all of you guys for a job well done!
You have to be careful. Not enough probably. You remember in ancient Greece, nobody listened to the Cassandras. Well regrettably Ben is not a TV star, and a lot of the fools just listen to TV an don’t read captivating and stimulating blogs like theses. Cassandras in the end were right, like Ben.
Damn, it is much too bad that Robert Cote is no longer posting as he would have a great post on Riverpark.
He HATED that development.
there’s a lot to hate about it. It’s giagantic. Houses 4 feet apart. You can spit in your neighboor sink from your own bathroom. The once quaint farming plains of Oxnard are turning into Levittowns. I wonder if it will ever be finished, and if it is, what the quality of life will be there once the prices are crushed. Could end up a big, low income rental gulag.
I saw him here last week I think…
Yes SunsetBeachGuy,
Robert would treat us to some special bile and venom for sure.
For what it’s worth, I would have attributed the “light a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life..” to Mr. Cote. It has his crisp and ruthless touch.
Good to know you too have poison arrows in the quiver..
I miss some of Roberts posts too. He had a way with descriptions. I will never forget his “lightning rod discomfort” comment.
Cote told us all we needed to know about Riverpark many moons ago. Now it’s just a matter of watching it play out.
At least Oxnard will have no shortage of low-income housing for the near future.
“Sonoma County is teetering on the brink of a mild recession”
Yes, that’s how it will begin…
and it is indeed begininng. Though one of the things that will make it even worse is the cultural denial of the area. Not internet savvy. Barely notices there is a world beyond the borders of Sonoma. They think the internet is just a great way to send more chain mail.
Who needs to go to the internet and do research on the housing market when all your friends are real estate agents and mortgage brokers? They are the experts. What could the internet tell them that their friends wouldn’t?
That seems to be the thought process of Sonoma County.
Hi Athena,
I know you to be the local north bay expert. I live in Ashland, Oregon and want to one day buy a somewhat larger home for my family (~1500 sf 3/2/, mine is a 2/1 under 1000 sf), but cannot stomach the current prices. I have a good, stable job with a salary in the top 20% for the Rogue Valley and could probably pay up $300-325k or so with a decent interest rate. That is a $150k-200k too low for anything now.
I am interested in you knowledge because our biggest problem seems to be north bay (Marin, Sonoma Co.) emigres who have moved up and literally taken over the town. They have so much equity that jobs seem to be little concern for them. I am wondering if there are any indications on your end that this trend will slow down or change. And if so, when?
Thanks for anything you can send along.
ah Mr. Fester… you speak the truth. Many of those who sold on the way up made a killing and took their winnings and hightailed it up to Oregon. The groups of people I know about are boomers who retired on the house.
I suppose as long as they paid cash for an Oregon house and own the title free and clear and invested the rest of their house atm lottery winnings they will be fine. If their property values fall and take a decade to make it back up to their purchase price they aren’t in trouble as long as they don’t need to sell.
Meanwhile in Sonoma County things will get really ugly. The stupid people tell themselves that most of the real estate bought during the bubble were by outsiders with lots of money. Not true. Many a local-yokel beer-bonged the “real estate only goes up” kool-aid and HELOC’d current residences “liberating their equity” to buy another house to “flip.” Others moved up and decided there was no risk to not selling their previous residence. Still others joined the real estate industry, store clerks, waiters, hair stylists, delivery clerks, teachers, bartenders, housewives became real estate agents. They bought cars, and took on big real estate purchases of their own, and hawked their wares to their friends and families. Others became mortgage brokers and did the same thing. One local long time mortgage broker with his face plastered all over everything nailed down in the town proudly boasts to little old ladies he is trying to hoodwink into a toxic mortgage that over 80% of his clients take out negative amortizing pick your payment loans. They just refi or sell before it resets… real estate never goes down in Sonoma. Even the last downturn prices only went down 4%.
THAT is what he is telling people. The last downturn was an external hit to the economy due to the tech industry crapping the bed. THIS downturn will be an IMPLOSION due to people like him and they horse he rode in on. Their house of cards will collapse on itself.
Bagholders who purchased in 2005 and 2006 who bought banking on selling quickly and really couldn’t afford their mortgages will feel bent over and shtupped without lubricating affection.
anyone who financed an overpriced chitbox who banked on being able to refi to continue affording the payments will be hosed.
anyone who loses a job will be hosed. 40% of the jobs added in Sonoma County since 2001 were housing related. It is estimated that in Sonoma County already 1,300 jobs in the housing sector have been lost with more to pink slips on the way.
It will take a while for the real pain to set in to the minds of Sonoma County. The local media is co-dependent and has a deep aversion to the truth. The social and economic system is made up of various components of the Real Estate Industrial Complex there- so I anticipate another year of the truth happening behind the scenes and only made truly visible on my blog.
Those in the industry will continue trying to pretend each FB is an isolated situation and it won’t happen to them…
It will take some major players skidding on their faces or perp walks being done by locals who get called on the carpet for fraud for people to take it seriously. Otherwise each one that bites the dust will get neatly swept under the carpet until the carpet isn’t big enough to cover the mess anymore.
All I can say is stay tuned Mr. Fester. I think 2008 will be the year of reckoning. ;-D
Hehehe…. what a nice rant. Tell us how you REALLY feel, Athena.
“THIS downturn will be an IMPLOSION due to people like him and they horse he rode in on”
And I wonder what becomes of the Aston-driving, wine bar lounging crowd who thought Sonoma would become their next gilded footstool, at seeing their precious gourmet shops and Tuscan bric-a-brac boutiques close their doors? How shocking–time to move to Rutherford! Ok, my rants might not equal yours, but I would enjoy the pretense that’s infected Sonoma to be knocked down a few notches. Marin for that matter, but I know the pod people aren’t leaving this place.
You and me both Marin Explorer. The pretention that has taken over like a plague is what I hate most about my town. I walk around town muttering: An Ounce of Pretention is Worth a Pound of Manure
and looks to me like we have a whole lot of manure piling up and boy is it ever going to hit the ventilator.
Thanks for the rant Athena,
I enjoyed it immensely. We have the very same poseurs here in droves. And you can imagine how seamlessly those Mercedes fit in in S. Oregon. I would just be happy if less than 80% of our immigrants came from the BA. Until then, I can dream that a virulent strain of Peet’s coffee will thin the ranks.
“The Hills like their home, the first they ever purchased, for its newness, location and as a good place to raise their children. The $630,000 they paid for their 2,000-square-foot, four-bedroom home seemed reasonable in the inflated Southern California market.”
“The development is sort of a ghost town in reverse, a neighborhood that inches toward a community every day while the few living there wait and watch. … The day they were moving in, the couple left a wagon her father gave his grandchildren on the front porch. The next morning, the wagon was gone. The occasional graffiti bothers Brian Hill. At one of the entrances someone sprayed a tag over a sign promoting new homes.”
This passage shows why much of California real estate is toast … Somewhere along the line, the masses and specuvestors decided that ANY house with a California address must be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars and could appreciate indefinitely at 20%+ per annum, regardless of whether the house is in San Francisco, Oxnard, Redding, Fresno or Bakersfield. These people paid $630K for some sh*thole in a half-built community, where prices are already falling, and they have gangbangers tagging the property around them with graffiti!!
“All the forces are now ganged up”
I can tell you that Oxnard is “all ganged up” in areas. “The Colonia” is one of the most notorious barrios in the state and the gangs there are serious dudes.
I think the video game Grand Theft Auto San Andreas was substantially based on the Oxnard gang scene.
If you live in Oxnard your friends from out of town will never come visit - they will be mugged.
I know someone who lived there this happened to thier vistors.
Id much rather rent in a nice area.
You just have to laugh at what has taken place here in Ventura County in the last 5 years.
I remember Oxnard as OK - but that is because I knew it 15 years ago. I am sure it is a ghetto now
*** think the video game Grand Theft Auto San Andreas was substantially based on the Oxnard gang scene. ***
LMAO!
It is called Mexnard for a reason!
Well it’s a lot like Fallujah. From Grand teft auto to grand teft country and grand teft OIL. No difference. The photos are a lot like the video except it’s real blood and real OIL. Ah freedomm ain’t that cute. Real cheap real estate in Irak. Not interested ?
Also, Riverpark is built on a floodplain along the Santa Clara River right next to El Rio, which has a large gang problem and are rivals to the Colonia and Southside Chiques gangs of Oxnard.
Wow — Makes me want to run out and “Snap Up” one of those lovely RiverPark cookie-cutter homes for $600K!!! They won’t last long, and I don’t want to be priced out of that area forever!!
Do they come with gun turrets and concertina wire? Sounds like must-have accessories for a barrio buffer zone.
krills posts ” Riverpark is built on a floodplain along the Santa Clara River right next to El Rio ”
That is no joke. Very bad for a lot of rain and pure hell, if the area is ever hit with a 7 or better. If a big quake rumbles thru this town it will be dust. The sandy river bottom will sink the whole area.
My wife’s family has lived in the area since the early 1900’s and her great-grandmother, who is 98, told us that the area they are building on is prone to floods and was never used for agriculture. The only use of the area was as a quarry, Blue Diamond.
Hence the name El Rio, the river.
The old quarry, is now the beautiful lake.
“krills posts ” Riverpark is built on a floodplain along the Santa Clara River right next to El Rio”
I have driven thru that area of the Santa Clara basin all the way up to the 118 old los angeles ave road to Saticoy, using vineyard rte 232 or rose ave. That entire area has always been basically agricultural fields or just plain empty flatlands without any residential housing settlements. There is a reason for this,and it comes every decade or so in abnormal heavy rainy seasons which flood that area. Building riverpark next to the Santa clara River in a floodplain must be a stupendously error on the part of the developers, or else they must have some gigantic trick to control the river during a flooding event. They do incorporate an overflow catch basin in the riverpark master plan-good luck with that.
“can tell you that Oxnard is “all ganged up” in areas”
I have noticed that in areas such as Oxnard, Central Valley, ect which have large populations of immigrant agricultural workers there arises these slum shanty pockets located on the edges of the farm fields or in some undesirable slum pocket of a small town/city. Seen lots of these areas in the Central valley(e.g.portersville). The gangs which sprout out of these agri-slum pockets seem to be as bad or worse that those in the famous LA inner-city hard core gang-slums of which i have more familiarity. Hard to imagine the Colonias being more hard core than the Wilmington’Wilmas’
gangs or the LA 18th street or the burbank ‘Vineland boys’.
“The complex was expected to be completed around 2009. Now the date is looking more like 2011, said Tony Talamante, RiverPark Legacy project director.”
“However, these are small things in the grand scheme for the Hills. In years to come they will be in the middle of this new pseudo-city. Once it’s all finished, they’ll be able to say they were pioneers.”
Work with me now…I’m picturing Brian sitting on the front porch with a double-barrelled shotgun. He’s the look-out for the first shift. So far, the neighbors don’t know that they bought their kids a PS3 for Christmas but word spreads fast in these parts.
Ok, ok….I just couldn’t resist when I read the “pioneer” crap.
BayQT~
didn’t alot of pioneers get haircuts from the native indians?
Short ones… REEAALL SHORT ONES….
PS3? They’re safe. The kids want a Wii this year.
Actually.
My brother earns his $$$ off the PS3. 
Neil
I’m betting that the PS3 will be doing better once the developers get properly tooled up for the Cell processor. As you probably know, it’s a whole new challenge to develop for.
BayQT:
LOL!
~Misstrial
Here is a link to the Sacramento flippers website in case someone wants it.
http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/
I talked with a Mazzholeland female real estate agent workin’ for a C21 franchise in the gym today.
Been sellin’ for 9 years.
Told me nearly every house she goes to list, the seller’s owe more on it than her CMA reports shows it’s worth.
Most immediately send her on her way, with a “kill the messenger attitude.
For the sales which make it to closing/escrow, seller’s are bringin’ on average $20k to close.
I told her the coming bust would be 10X worse than in ‘90/’91, and those $20k seller checks would ballon to triple digits before it was all over. She was incredulous at my predictions.
Her C21/NAR shills are tellin’ everbody the market has already bottomed, and prices will go up in the spring.
Late Spring = PANIC!
Late spring?
And I thought I was an optomist.
The first day of spring is 3/21/07. Most of the nation might stay out of panic until then. But what about late spring…The start of summer is 6/21/07… We’re not getting through May before panic.
Neil
The “April Ass-Pounding” is on it’s way!
Nice to have you back, Auger. I think.
Have you been quiet, or me just not looking?
Been traveling, nice to be missed.
Homeowners debate the uptick…
We bears are down to debating April or May as the start of the panic…
posted ” The “April Ass-Pounding” is on it’s way! ”
Hey Auger, I think your dance card will be filling up soon in California! Keep UP the good work!….LOL…
As a breed, sheeple tend to be slow to panic when propperly led, so I’m not predicting panic until late summer/early fall when the ‘07 selling season works towards its close.
“I told her the coming bust would be 10X worse than in ‘90/’91, and those $20k seller checks would ballon to triple digits before it was all over. She was incredulous at my predictions.”
You’re dead on. She’s dreaming. When I bought my first home in Philly in 1994 (just at the end of the last downturn), the sellers had to pay $13K to SELL their house to me at only $85K. (They paid $110K in 1990.)
If sellers are presently bringing $20K to close, there are others who would have to bring closer to $100K to close — but they can’t afford to! Those people are waiting it out, PRAYING that the market comes back. Those people are toast. They just don’t know it yet.
When I bought my first home in Philly in 1994 (just at the end of the last downturn), the sellers had to pay $13K to SELL their house to me at only $85K. (They paid $110K in 1990.)
Yup, tl-
Your experience was pretty much what I saw for the norm after the late ’80’s run up. I’d the av. sellers cash pony-up if they had to get out of town during the bust was usually anywhere from $10 to $25k.
Your $80/$110k value range was very prevalent for the time.
Yet note the amount the seller’s had to bring to the table…$13k. Painful, but not out of reach for the times.
Fast forward to today with POS homes bought for $500k and with zilch for equity positions.
Muthafooker-It’s gonna be a horror show.
$13k will seem like chump change with what people are gonna have to pay to unload their white elephants.
NAR shills should all be lynched.
I’d wager that sellers in 2009 will be down around $200K. The coming foreclosure panic is just getting started.
I believe the reason for the relative slow inventory increases, thus far, is due to everyone waiting for the market to “pick up”. Not gonna happen, IMHO.
Still, my money’s on Sept/Oct for the real party to get started. Glad we are finally on the downhill side of this ride. Got a long, long, long way to go before we hit “bottom”. Like 2009-2012, at best, IMO.
I was having Wilmington Delawhere Rivefront flashbacks reading the first piece. I too was informed I was an “urban pioneer” after the fact. I was neighborless at the beginning. I too had to deal with trash swirling around along with construction debris blowing off the condo towers. One big difference, Wilmington Delawhere is a rotten place to live and raise a family. At least they have a possible bright future of a community to look forward too in the future. Basically Wilmington Delawhere is a rotten, blighted, malignent cancer with panhandlers and freaks that roam the streets. The police are completely impotent and incompotent. The ladies of the night are returning in force adding to the drug crime that invests that cesspool. And being the Northeast, the people were the most standoffish and rude I’d ever had to deal with in my life. I gladly took my haircut and got the hell out so I could live another day (literally!!) I learned never to be soo foolish again in believing the lies of developers and real estate agents.
Great post Joe!
I could see that s@#thole clearly from your vivid description. Sometimes good to take the medicine and get the hell out.
But everybody wants to live here! This is only a temporary trough, it’s not a bubble bursting. 2007 will be another banner year in California Real Estate! UP…UP…UP! Affordability isn’t an issue! BUY! SELL! Forget those 401k contributions….invest in Real Estate!
What a load of cr*p. I saw this coming 3 years ago when I was trying to buy and kept walkin into to dumps people wanted top dollar for. Now the losers who bought those dumps are starting to have problems paying for them because the water heater broke, the furnace blew-up, the roof leaked, the windows had to be replaced and lest we forget food must be put on the table and PG&E must be paid for the lights.
California is a land of excess…excess exuberance about itself. People here seem to have lost touch with reality. More people are leaving than coming in…unless you count the illegals and babies being born. California is on the cusp of a long overdue reality check and it’s gonna hurt…….alot!
“and it’s gonna hurt…….alot!”
Auger-inn, here your cue…
Auger’s not around. He’s in training, 100 yrd dash, etc.
Apparently, the way things are turning out. “Run-ups” are becoming required and he needs to be in shape.
And I DO intend to be in shape! Just pulled into Las Vegas for a few months. Should be lots of fodder for the board when I start moseying around town
Ladies and gentleman I give you;
The one, the only, The Auger-inn!
Waiter….
Auger - get the low down on that time share or whatever they are hawking nationwide with that has been - I can’t even remember his name….
couples only, romance, time of your life BS… does anyone know what I am talking about?!
“Once it’s all finished, they’ll be able to say they were pioneers.”
Until recently, if you were a “pioneer” in an area, the prices were significantly better than in already developed areas. Inside the housing bubble, however, folks began paying premium prices to move into marginal neighborhoods and be urban pioneers.
An excellent point!
The $630,000 they paid for their 2,000-square-foot, four-bedroom home
Man $350 per sqft. Wouldn’t take too many of these before a builer could become a billionare!!
Dangit! Meant $315 per sqft
Any news from San Luis Obispo county? Word I hear from long term residents is that foreclosures “never” happen in SLO and that the real estate market is different from the rest of California.
And we used to think they never happened here….just wait
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Michigan/Grosse_Pointe/Homes_for_sale/result.html;_ylt=AvOjbqYiAbUheS8Ca2wexcSkF7kF?typeBak=realestate&p=48236&type=foreclosure&search=Search&priceLow=0&priceHigh=5000000&bedroomLow=&bathroomLow=
There are at least a few foreclosures in Los Osos, according to foreclosure.com. Listings on that site in SLO, Morro Bay, and Cayucos are mainly “pre-foreclosure”.
May want to take a look in the most recent Bits Bucket. arroyogrande had some things to share. Another poster too, can’t recall the username.
~Misstrial
“foreclosures “never” happen in SLO”
Ask the residents of which you speak, “then where did these Bank REOs come from…Santy Claus?”:
675 Creekside Ranch Rd., Templeton, CA 93465
520 32nd St., Paso Robles, CA 93446
7640 Pinal Ave., Atascadero, CA 93422
1240 Katherine Ct., Paso Robles, CA 93446
1388 13th St., Los Osos, CA 93402
245 Hazel Ln., Nipomo, CA 93444
869 Sycamore Canyon Rd., Paso Robles, CA 93446
1769 Oak Hill Rd., Arroyo Grande, CA 93420
etc. etc. etc.
Realtytrac has 196 SLO sounty houses in Pre-foreclosure, 47 going to auction, and 94 as post auction returns to the bank (REOs). Some of these listing are pretty old, but it’s a bit more than ZERO.
“and that the real estate market is different from the rest of California.”
That is true…according to Dataquick, San Luis Obispo County is DOWN 10% year-over-year, while Los Angeles is still UP 4% year-over-year:
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPCAR.shtm
Different indeed.
Yes. I have been tracking local foreclosures on foreclosure.com since May of 2005. Back then, SLO county was running 4-5 foreclosures at any give time and SB county was running 7-8. These numbers held pretty constant until the slowdown in summer/fall 2006, and have been steadily climbing ever since. Now we are up to 29 in SLO and 70 in SB, so SLO foreclosures are up about 6 times, and SB foreclosures nearly 10 times. The numbers are small, of course, and this is a smaller increase in the foreclosures in CA as a whole, which have increased 100x (about 70-80 in May 2005 to over 7,000 now on foreclosure.com). But the numbers have been steadily going up since the market slowed. And given the way people around here have been buying with IOs and extracting ‘equity’ from their homes, the numbers are likely to get quite a bit higher before things improve.
It may be a while coming, but I hope at some point folks realize that anyone who has bought recently probably isn’t making any money on their house. Between the big mortgage and property taxes and insurance, there isn’t any real “profit” to speak of.
Hi San Diego Folks!
This weekend is the “Real Wealth Expo” at the Scottish Rite Center. It’s a free program that has some excellent speakers lined up and I thought people from here might want to take advantage of it.
To see the schedule go to: http://tinyurl.com/y5gblu
Many of the speakers I do not know but I will definitely be going to see the following:
Bill Tan, Friday the 12th 6:30-8:45pm
Bruce Norris, Saturday the 13th 8-10:30am
Robert Campbell, Sunday the 14th 4-6:30pm
If you cannot attend anything else I strongly recommend Robert Campbell. He did a great presentation several months ago detailing the problems in real estate and the coming crash. The figures he presents are frightening. I have not seen Bruce Norris but I have heard from others he is very good. If anyone recommends speakers besides the three I am already attending please let me know.
To register go to: http://tinyurl.com/y7ujj8 but please use code RWE92122 to register.
PS The next SDCIA meeting is on mobile homes which I am not interested in. If any San Diego people please note the meeting has been changed from the 2nd to the 3rd Wednesday this month and will be on the 17th.
LMAO.
This says it all “Scottish Rite Center” It ain’t gonna be about spending!
PS “If it ain’t Scottish it’s CRRAAAAAAAPPP MAN.
Bruce Norris is an impeccable UBER-Bear on So Cal RE.
Thanks for the heads-up, SD RE Bear! I agree the Robert Campbell presentation is well worth attending.
Thanks for the SDCIA meeting info, as well!
Take care!
Stinkramento:
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/fns/259234453.html
“I am looking for any help I can get. Maybe just a $6000 loan”
Just a $6000 loan? From a stranger online? Mmmmmm I think people are loosing a wee bit of perspective concerning the value of money and the difficulty of obtaining it. Especially $6000 of it.
with a 60 to 40 month payoff schedule no less not counting interest (not mentioned). Time to let the car go and take the bus.
“I am also willing to barter services. I am a therapist/consultant by profession”.
Very interesting……hmmmm
Got two words of advice for this Gal:
“pole dancing”
LOL!!!
You ruthless bast#%d!
THERAPIST!?!?! puh-leeez…
Did you ever notice that the word therapist is a conjuction of “the rapist”…
interesting…
Where’s the daddy who forgot to back the car out of the garage?
“Did you ever notice that the word therapist is a conjunction of “the rapist”…
“Where’s the daddy who forgot to back the car out of the garage…..”?
My picks for comment “Award Winners”, Jan 8, 2007…..
Maybe she can freelance as a:
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/etc/259628180.html
Free meals plus cash
BayQT~
Sounds to me like she is offering therapy that concludes with a “happy ending”.
you can get that for less than 6 grand. a lot less!
You mean I overpaid for my house, and now “this” too?
Oh the shame….
“imploder” sucked in by a bubble?
I don’t believe it……hehehe
like $25, no?
OMFG…that is one of the most pathtic things I’ve ever seen. Does she own a house/condo that reset on her or something?? Either that, or it’s a scam or a front for prostitution or something…bizarre.
Most sad and one aspect of the housing mess i won’t take any delight in are what many children will go through. The kids suffer simply because they were unlucky enough to have stupid parents who were greedy or lured by cut-throat ruthless lenders . The stupid adults can foreclose, loose their home and an learn a good lesson they likely derserved to learn, but their kids will go through it too. 10 years old, heading into teenage years is hard enough, now picture loosing your home, having your friends know you are loosing your home. Horrible.
Uh…10 months….now picture losing your bottle and having to crap in your pants with no disposable diaper.
or disposabable income…….
“However, these are small things in the grand scheme for the Hills. In years to come they will be in the middle of this new pseudo-city. Once it’s all finished, they’ll be able to say they were pioneers.”
This should be corrected to read
“However, these are small things in the grand scheme for the Hills. In years to come they will be in the middle of this new pseudo-Hell. Once they are completely finished, they’ll be able to say they were FB’s.”
NR from not so frozen Montreal
“Surprised EVERYBODY”??
Gotta love the graphs
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw*aid=2816*time=pm
LOVE the graphs.
That first one definately states the trend. The trend d(price)/dt is acceplerating. The rate of acceleration is (nearly) linear too!
That graph is national too… imagine what its going to be like in the bubble markets…
Got popcorn?
Neil
I agree d2p/dt2 is negative, but I think d3p/dt3 might actually be positive. This is perhaps to be expected. So long as dp/dt remains negative, I am a happy camper.
Az-lender
I agree that d3p/dt3 has gone positive.
However, I’m not expecting this to take d2p/dt2 positive for a long time. Even then, I expect it to only take us to d2p/dt2 of zero for a bit. When in nominal terms will dp/dt go back positive?
Not for a while. Like I said.
Got popcorn?
Neil
another housing won’t “spill over” deal
sprint lost 300k subscribers - nextel is used 99% by contractors
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070108/sprint_outlook.html?.v=10
Is nextel that popular with contractors?
My impression was that the DOD contract stabilized their subscription base. Since Nextel’s service is… poor. Is this a trend?
Ok, I’ve been googling this since I’ve seen the news. If the cell phone subscriber base is going down, that would imply a very quick economic contraction. But if its just sprint/Nextel being penalized for bad service… Then its not that big of a deal.
That said, the DOD subscription base shouldn’t have budged… anyone have any more information?
Neil
I noted Motorola’s warning and the difficult environment for cell phone competition (of course that’s more hardware competition than service) http://tinyurl.com/yg2amy
Also, it appears as though Sprint/Nextel had poor service.
Wait a second… Moto specializes in pretty high end phones…
If they’re hurting, does that mean people are cheaping out on cell phone replacements? or, Heaven forbid, skipping upgrades?
Next thing you’ll tell me is that Starbucks is having trouble… (Ok, not yet, but its getting tough for them to keep up profits…)
Neil
Nextel had cheap area deals and good GPS packaged products. Knowing where the contractors actually were during the work day revealed a lot about trucks getting stuck in traffic and other such excuses. The GPS integrated product was a huge boost for Nextel.
I use nextel walkie-talkie type phones in my line of work. My experience with using their service is that direct communication with dispatch/home office is sometimes spotty. Practically all contractors, delivery services, truck firms in Scal use the Nextel push-button type walkie-talkie cell phone. It it a good tool for the delivery company to provide hands-on control and direction to their drivers out on the road. The best phone i have used is the rim blackberry/walkie-talkie combo phone for taking/sending text messages and direct push-button response to dispatch.
Putting California aside for a minute, I’m confused about Massachusetts regarding low inventory levels. Is it still too early and possible that inventory will skyrocket come February? There are hardly any new listings for the last 4 months. Is it perhaps that sellers are waiting for the prices to come back before re-listing?
I’m confused about Massachusetts regarding low inventory levels.
The New England market always goes into the tank like the week before Thanksgiving, and due to seasonal weather factors doesn’t get crankin’ until late March.
Nobody wants to move in the snow and cold.
Despite the fact that it was 70 degrees in North Conway NH, and all the ski mountains virtually deserted (an economic disaster in the making), I still think people in NE revert to ingrained behaviors and will hibernate until “spring”.
Sellers are taking their homes off the market hoping to relist them in the spring to take advantage of the “spring bounce”. At least that is what they are doing here in the Bay Area. When spring is in the air I guess they think the fools will get the nesting bug and pay the inflated prices they wouldn’t pay in the winter.
The spring bounce will be a a big thud as the market hits the next floor down as it continues traveling back to the mean.
I am sure it will be a big thud, but what will still piss most of us here off to no end is the fact that most sellers will put their homes up for ridiculously high prices …yet again.
No, they won’t because the comps won’t support it anymore. Not to mention $1Trillion in loan resets coming in next 12 to 24 months triggering a wave of foreclosure and commensurate effects on the comps. That WILL force their hand.
The “buzz” is that the market will rebound in the spring. I know a few people who have pulled their homes off the market now in anticipation of gains in the spring.
posted ” The “buzz” is that the market will rebound in the spring.”
Next spring will be Stalingrad for the sellers.
Springingrad… Jah, Jah…
Nice analogy. Read an account of the battle recently. This was what really turned the tide against the Wehrmacht. Hope Ben titles an especially brutal spring awakening as “Der Kessel” sometime this spring as REIC tries to reassure flippers to stay put, as Hitler did to Paulus. David Lereah should play the role that Goehring did during this battle.
Oh, by the way, Malibu is burning.
Most sellers have heard that as well. And most will re-list in spring at AROUND THE SAME TIME. Think monsoon deluge in the high desert…
Well, folks - the sub-prime, no interest loans are still alive and well in Thousand Oaks, Ca.
I just found a flyer outside my door from a company called, Rosemont Financial. The first laugh was their slogan (next to the name) which reads: Built On Integrity.
Rosemont Financial offers: 100% financing. Interest Only Options. Loans For The Self Employed. Stated Income Only Loans. 40 & 50 Year Financing. Option Payment Loans Starting At 1% Traditional Financing.
Also included in the ad, was: If It Is Something You Need Then It’s Something We Can Help You With.
Looks like the Fat Lady is still singing!
“The Sacramento Bee. “If you doubt there’s a frosty trend in the local real estate market, look no further than a five-month-old local Web site. At Sacramento Area Flippers in Trouble, more than 470 Sacramento area homes are listed for sale at prices below, sometimes way below, what their owners originally paid.”
“Flippers In Trouble”? That’s hysterical. I hope it becomes like Craigslist and they have listings for every city.
Does it strike anybody else as Ironic that this guy’s name is “Toste”? LOL Toast indeed! Most all of those owners are…
He’s “Toste”………most owners are “Teste”
Chico Tammy feels I and others unjustly accused her of making overly optimistic predictions. ( we did pummel her for being attractive) Does any one else have an opinions about her post and the Chico market? (She responded in an earlier thread)
http://www.chicotammy.com/ChicoMarketWatch.htm
Comment by AnimatronicBeautician
2007-01-08 13:12:55
Wow!!, you guys are amazing. First of all, you obivously are not familiar with my market area. The statistics quoted, are actual sales data, check them out for yourself and do the math. The media in my area wrongly suggested housing prices this past year to have dropped 20% in Chico specifically, this is in fact not correct. Ask about sales volume, that is another thing altogether. imploder, you may want to brush up on the difference between reporting the past, in this case 2006-versus a prediction; the last time this “chicky” checked my stat’s did not, have not and will qualify as a “prediction” on future market conditions.
Have a Great 2007!
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by imploder
2007-01-08 20:11:22
Telling people to “rest assured” and referring to the ’so-called “bursting housing bubble”‘ is inferring that everything is “just fine” . That IS a (not so subtly inferred) prediction.
If that is not your prediction. OK, what is your prediction for 2007?
hilarious! thanks for the heads up, I missed her reply. Never would have guessed she reads here.
Let’s look at the real numbers in Chico not hidden within deceptive Averages and means.
The following houses are on the same street and are the exact same design, each have 1320 square feet.
1880 Devonshire Sold 2nd Quarter 2005 for $334,000
1868 Devonshire Sold 3rd Quarter 2005 for $322,000
1837 Devonshire Sold 2nd Quarter 2006 for $316,000
1841 Devonshire For Sale now $285,000
This is a 16% drop in values since 2nd quarter 2005 and a 10% year on end drop. Why? The biggest reason is that lenders are not lending to just anyone anymore.
Big Bob Slob’s prediction for 2007:
The values of Chico homes will continue to drop at least by 10% over the next year.
I should also note that Tammy’s numbers are very wrong. I don’t know how she came up with these figures but they are bull.
“David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae: The housing downturn is “close to an end; it will not continue throughout 2007.” Prices and sales will continue to decline slightly, but by mid-2007, sales will start to pick up and prices will stop declining. Real estate is highly regional. Even if prices decline in some parts of the country, growth in other areas will sustain the industry as a whole and the national economy. Mortgage originations for purchases will decline this year, but refinancing should rise as people swap fixed-rate mortgages for adjustable rates or draw equity from their homes.”
So there you have it folks.
I couldn’t believe what I was reading.
Here’s the whole article.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-ybrealraf08jan08,0,6751649.column?coll=sfla-business-front
Didn’t see this posted, but I picked up a copy of the Wall St. Journal this morning and on the front page, at the top, was a big article about idiot flippers in Naples, FL, and how they’ve become FBs. One clueless woman found a real estate agent who unloaded one of his properties on her for a huge profit (like 50% in seven months), then he attempted to buy it back from her at auction a year later at less than half what he sold it to her at. He sold her millions of dollars worth of crap and amazingly, banks like Countrywide loaned her money to buy it. She told the interviewer that she never overpaid for anything because the properties appraised out at what she paid! Now they’re starting foreclosure proceedings.
She told the interviewer that she never overpaid for anything because the properties appraised out at what she paid!
Rubber stamping appraisal muthaf*ckers…
The grease for the racketeering lending wheel.