January 11, 2007

Market Is Forcing Sellers To Be More Realistic: California

The Tracy Press reports from California. “City statistics show that new home construction in Tracy has plummeted. Construction has also slowed down in neighboring Lathrop, and sales of existing homes dropped sharply in the south county in 2006. ‘In general, there is an abundance of homes on the resale market and a number of new homes that have been sitting on the market,’ said Ken Brown of Kencor Development of Stockton and president of the Building Industry Association of the Delta.”

“‘Over the last three months, you’ve seen that inventory (of new homes) go away, mainly because of the concessions given.’ He said that many builders, worried that new homes would sit unoccupied for too long, have reduced prices and offered other incentives to attract buyers. ‘You’re seeing a flattening of the pricing for sure,’ he said.”

“The Central Valley Association of Realtors reported 1,788 existing houses sold in Banta, Tracy and Mountain House by late December. It’s about half as many as in 2005, and the median price of a home dropped from $580,000 in the second half of 2005 to $530,000 in the second half of 2006.”

“In Ripon, prices have dropped about $100,000 from the same time last year, from $546,000 to $450,000.”

“Marge Imfeld, a board member with the Central Valley Association of Realtors said she sees this as a much-needed correction in the market and expressed relief that prices have leveled off. ‘If you look at the previous three years, 30 to 40 percent increases in property values in a year is excessive,’ she said.”

The Daily Independent. “The Ridgecrest Area Association of Realtors selected Dru Hawkins Realtor of the Year. ‘We have seen reductions in some of the homes here that were overpriced,’ Hawkins said. Often, he said, the appraised value of a home and what the owner wants out of it are two different things. Overall, the market (is) forcing people to be more realistic and to price homes more correctly.”

The Union Tribune. “A 280-unit Oceanside condominium complex from one of the county’s most prolific condo converters has been taken over by its largest lender.”

“Developer Maisel-Presley agreed to hand the keys to the River Oaks project over to Bank of America last month after the bank initiated a foreclosure proceeding, according to court records. The bank is owed about $35 million.”

“The lingering slowdown in the housing market both in San Diego and nationwide has put increasing pressure on some condo converters, real estate experts say. With home sales down significantly in the past year, there is now a glut of conversion units on the market. As of November, 115 conversion projects were actively selling in the county, with 5,987 units remaining to be sold in current and future phases, according to The Sullivan Group.”

“‘That’s almost a two-year supply,’ said Peter Dennehy, a VP with The Sullivan Group.”

“Maisel-Presley has another project in default, although it hasn’t been foreclosed upon yet. Beacon Hill, a small project on Kansas Street in University Heights, is behind on a $3.3 million loan from Southwest Community Bank.”

“Maisel-Presley lists the project as an ‘investor special,’ with studio units starting at $99,674. Unlike most condo conversions, units in this project have not been upgraded with granite countertops and new appliances.”

The Voice of San Diego. “National City is sandwiched between two areas that saw skyrocketing production and soaring prices for several years at the beginning of the decade. But that boom is, by most accounts, over. Demand for new housing isn’t what it was a few years ago. And still, more than 4,000 new condo units are slated for the community.”

“Kirk Verner an Imperial Beach resident, and Joseph Knight from Chula Vista, say they’d be surprised if the development happens anytime soon. ‘You know, in the back of [the developers'] minds, they’re thinking, ‘This is not the right place and it’s not the right time,’ Verner said.”

“‘I can’t justify high-rise condos without a sustainable local economy,’ he continued. ‘The car business has been National City’s backbone for a long time, and they want to get rid of a bunch of it.’”

“Verner said he’s worked in National City for more than 15 years and, in that time, has seen it change to a place most people go just for work, not to live. ‘From [Interstate] 15 down, the money’s not here anymore,’ Verner said. ‘[The residents] won’t be able to afford these condos,’ Knight said.”

The North County Times. “The supply of unsold homes for all of San Diego County has since declined by about one-third, to 14,936 as of the end of 2006. ‘I think we’re seeing some investors taking their properties off the (resale) market and putting their houses in the rental market,’ said Dennis Smith, a real estate agent in Carlsbad. ‘As well, I think we’re seeing some sellers who would like to move up, but are finding that people won’t buy their houses for the prices they want and therefore they can’t buy the move-up houses they want.’”

“Russ Valone, president of a real estate market research firm, told regional leaders last Friday that inventories have plunged in large part because sellers have found that their homes can’t command the high prices similar homes once brought. Valone said that many had sort of hoped to ‘win the lottery’ by cashing in at the height of the market, and the peak has clearly passed.”

The Orange County Register. “The percentage of Orange County homesellers who lost money on their transactions went up in December for a second straight month, new figures show. The profit rate reaped from the typical Orange County home sale last month also fell from the month before.”

“First American reported this week that 5.7 percent of local homesellers got less than what they paid for their homes, compared to 4.3 percent in November and 2.4 percent in October.”

The Dallas News. “Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the University of Southern California said builders will offer incentives before cutting prices in a development. ‘The price is going to be the last thing to fall,’ she said. ‘If they cut prices for new buyers, the previous buyers feel ripped off and they want the price cut too. (Builders) don’t do that.’”

“Nationwide, DR Horton’s average selling price fell 5.4 percent, with the sharpest declines in the Southwest (22.2 percent).”

“In California, where home sales tumbled 23 percent in 2006 and could drop another 7 percent this year, ‘the worst is over,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.”

“‘Remember we’re going from a market where you couldn’t afford not to buy. Rates were so low, and prices were appreciating 15 to 20 percent, you just had to do that deal,’ she said. ‘Housing is always going to be sexy…but I think some of the buzz about it, when there’s less money being made, is going to go away.’”




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270 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-01-11 12:16:03

‘The price is going to be the last thing to fall,’ she said. ‘If they cut prices for new buyers, the previous buyers feel ripped off and they want the price cut too. (Builders) don’t do that.’

How soon they forget:

‘ Albert Quintero made a deal to buy a new Turlock luxury home in November 2005, at the real estate market’s peak. By the time construction ended in July, Quintero’s Milestone Way home wasn’t worth the $874,890 he was contractually obligated to pay. Now the same model — a new home on nearby Tapestry Way — is priced at $639,990.’

‘It’s really tough to swallow that we paid 37 percent more than what our home is worth now,’ Quintero said. ‘We got caught.’

‘Potentially, thousands of Northern San Joaquin Valley homes bought within the past 18 months may be worth less than their purchase price, according to county assessors. Some builders have been offering new cars, fancy vacations or other goodies as incentives. ‘You don’t want to be paying property taxes for the Mexican cruise that was included with the home, and we don’t want you to, either,’ Harms said.’

‘This isn’t the first time real estate values have declined and home assessments had to be lowered. ‘At one point back in the 1990s, over 50 percent of the residential properties had their assessments reduced,’ recalled David Leonard, San Joaquin County’s assistant assessor.’

Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 13:32:27

“‘The price is going to be the last thing to fall,’ she said.”

That’s cool Lady, we’ll wait, cause we got nothin’ but time.

Comment by Not mssing it
2007-01-11 16:14:43

Isn’t it crazy! I just got off the phone with my Ex brother-in-law and he said his house has been on the market for almost 8 months. He said he was getting no bites or looks. I told him he needs to price it right bottom line! He said he has it for $265,000 and his realtor told him let’s drop it to $250,000 and see what happens. He then proceeded to tell me he questioned his realtors advice and thought she was crazy to drop it that much. This made me think that sellers don’t really look at how much profit they will make (depending on when the bought) but in that they are going to loose $10,000 or $20,000 from what they think they should be getting. It’s simply human nature to get what we can and as much as we can.

Comment by jjinla
2007-01-11 17:36:39

See, what sellers fail to realize is that their 3BR house never is or was worth $300K (or $1M in my area).

Rather, their “asset”, at a time when prices were rising 30-40% annually, was worth that much. Now that their “asset” has a projected NEGATIVE return (or even flat, if you believe the NAR), their house isn’t worth much more than when all of this craziness began.

I can rent for 1/4 of what I would pay to buy in my area. A free trip to Mexico or new countertops ‘ain’t going to make me overlook that fact.

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Comment by Joe
2007-01-11 23:25:22

But here’s a bit of good news for those homeowners: County assessors will consider lowering the assessments — and thus property taxes — for recently purchased homes.

Take Quintero’s home. If the assessor’s office determines his Milestone Way home is worth $639,990 like the Tapestry Way house rather than the $874,890 he paid, Quintero potentially could owe $2,349 less per year in property taxes.

And it would only take 100 years for him to recoup his loss with the money he’s saving on property tax!

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Comment by Steadykat
2007-01-12 08:22:31

The last thing to fall will be the State’s tax assessments.

 
 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-01-11 13:42:15

‘It’s really tough to swallow that we paid 37 percent more than what our home is worth now,’ Quintero said. ‘We got cornholed.’

How many times over the coming years are we going to hear this? Bring out the Gimp!

Comment by jtcc
2007-01-11 15:38:57

This is like that movie Kingpin.

“he got quinteroed”

Comment by Marc Authier
2007-01-11 21:02:58

He got “Quatrone-d”.

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Comment by RobInSunnyvale
2007-01-11 21:08:54

LOL!
“Bye Brother Munson, bye Whore.”

You’re seeing a flattening of the pricing for sure,’ he said.”

“The Central Valley Association of Realtors reported… the median price of a home dropped from $580,000 in the second half of 2005 to $530,000 in the second half of 2006.”

That’s $50K, almost 10%, of “flattening” in 1yr - glad I’m renting so I don’t get flattened.

Rob

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Comment by Marc Authier
2007-01-11 16:04:31

But that prrriiiickkk! Get this!
Greenspan says that things are really looking great and looking up ! His buddies from Saudi Arabia wil soon be giving the black stuff for free. Sometimes I think Ben Laden was right. Perish the thought !

NICE PIECE OF FACTS TAKEN FROM HAT TRICK LETTER.
” Without the fumes from housing foundations, consumer spending would dry up. The November personal income (up 0.3%) and consumer spending (up 0.5%) highlight the problem. US households have negative savings (minus 0.2%) at a time when price resets from adjustable mortgages are moving up rapidly, when minimum credit card payments have already risen, and when pay raises are few and far between. The savings rate for October was flat.

Just as the USGovt lies about almost all economic statistics, the NAHB deceives about prices in the housing sector. In new home prices, nowhere are the builder incentives factored in, like a new car, a quarter of paid property tax, a few months of forgiven monthly, even a jacuzzi. If value based hedonic improvements are permitted in the CPI statistic, why not also to pull down the average sales price for homes? The unsold home inventory is at a high level, actually the highest in 15 years. But factor in purchase contract cancellations, and the ratio looks even worse. Deceptions abound in statistics. Mark Twain knew it (I love the guy’s work). One does not require a professional statistician to expose the corrupt practices, just an alert head and open eyes, combined with a healthy distrust of people who harbor a vested interest.”

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 14:01:34

These builders are worse than used car salesemen. They have been gouging people so bad it’s sickening. The margins they were making during this mania are staggering. I don’t pity them going bankrupt. They deserve it. If they were foolish enough to not save for a rainy day after what they made, that’s pathetic. But, it’s a free market. And the stupid sheeple who stepped right up to pay are pathetic as well. And for those still taking the incentive bait, well, you are pretty foolish too. Yeah, you may get a house and a Benz for $700k, but the builder still made several hundred k off of your stupidity. People are failing to realize that, considering all of the houses builders sold over the past few years, they can afford to sell these POS’s for

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 14:03:28

they can afford to sell these POS’s for less than $200k and still be well into the black.

 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2007-01-11 16:27:56

Actually the big boys cash in their stock options and laugh all the way to the bank… who cares if the company folds and the average joe is laid-off…

 
Comment by Not mssing it
2007-01-11 16:30:04

Bear I agree with you, however builders can’t do a thing without land. Builders truly have been making profit from the dwelling but I have to believe that their land purchases have increased exponentally. The real gouging has come from the land owners, most of whom probably paid $800 per acre 75 years ago and have passed it on down to their heirs.

Comment by DaniW
2007-01-11 16:54:11

I disagree. Developers buy agricultural land or industrial land and get it rezoned so the value increases without them having to spend a dime more. What do you think they build on former farmland miles from the center of town instead of closer in when there is still acreage to build on?

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Comment by Not mssing it
2007-01-11 17:09:52

Don’t know where you live but here they are not putting up neighborhoods 2 miles out of town and working in. Other way around. Funny that I know an ag land holder that was not a builder and he somehow made $240,000 and acre. How do you suppose Magic Mountain was zoned in order that the owner(s) potential sale at 1 million dollars per acre?

 
Comment by Claudia
2007-01-12 03:58:44

My uncle, who made millions off of land deals in the 1970s, taught me that trick. Buy agriculatural, along the main roads. You pay less taxes until the land gets hot — then he used to trade his. I think he traded more than he sold. At one point in the late 1970s, he traded 8 acres in downtown Hollywood Florida for about 50,000 acres just outside of Orlando. As far as I know, there were no taxes on a land swap. The 50,000 acres he got are now developed but I don’t know what happened with those.

 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-01-11 19:07:49

“The real gouging has come from the land owners, most of whom probably paid $800 per acre 75 years ago and have passed it on down to their heirs.”

Let’s see…..75 years ago would have been in the middle of the Depression..ever heard of it? So, someone worked hard and bought some land, left it to their children and grandchildren and you expect them to sell it at 1930 prices.

You obviously don’t have a clue but, for giggles, do you have any idea how much $800 was back then? Nope, didn’t think so…..

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Comment by Not mssing it
2007-01-12 08:09:30

Let’s see…..75 years ago would have been in the middle of the Depression..ever heard of it?

yes

you expect them to sell it at 1930 prices.
I’m sorry in what part of my post did I assume that?

for giggles, do you have any idea how much $800 was back then? Nope, didn’t think so…..
Danny, $800 was purley an aributrary number I’m sure. Do we know each other? No need for the attitude?

 
 
 
Comment by Marc Authier
2007-01-11 21:00:28

Gouging is a byproduct of easy money and f–cked up monetary policy. The main culprits the FED and the BOJ. There is nothing that gougers love more than easy money and yeah you can put the banks in the lot too. “Barnum & Bailey Bank” Hey got a couple of millions? I think I will start one these institution. Or ” Suckaroo’s Bank”. “General Acceptance Gouging Unsavings and Sharkie’s Loans. ” “Mister Bubbles Long Term Credit Management”

 
 
Comment by Premature Curmudgeon
2007-01-11 14:03:20

$870 grand in Turlock. By this time next year the house will be worth half that. Ouch.

Comment by Norcal Ray
2007-01-11 14:46:38

$870 K is an out of this world (or is it out of your mind) price for Turlock. That must be over 15X median HH income there.

Comment by Central Valley Boy
2007-01-11 15:39:36

That’s about 30X median income. My grandparents lived there for 20 years, that town is now almost entirely made up of lower-middle class people. And I mean l-o-w-e-r.

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Comment by Not mssing it
2007-01-11 16:40:50

CVB You lived in the valley I take it and now your looking in LA? I’m still here and I can’t for the life of me understand these LA and SF transplants coming here with their huge equity $$ and buying. I have to believe after one summer their kids scream “get us the hell out-of-here!!” If it were me and I needed to stay in California I would have moved anywhere other than the strip between Bakersfield and Sacramento. I’m still here because of family but that is it.

 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2007-01-11 16:53:05

Where’s Turlock

 
Comment by Norcal Ray
2007-01-11 17:00:49

Near Modesto.

 
Comment by MacAttack
2007-01-11 17:16:12

Are there still Turkeys from Turlock? It’s a college town now, right? CSU Stanislaus?

 
Comment by Central Valley Boy
2007-01-11 18:07:54

Not Missing It: Rightie-o, I’ve been in L.A. for 17 years but spent my first 20 in Fresno (heh, slight digression, the Fresno real estate association once tried to float the idea of changing the name of the town to “Fresyes” since it seemed so much more positive than “Fresno”). I go back once a month to visit family but almost all my other friends have long since fled the steaming muck that is the Central Valley.

 
Comment by john Doe
2007-01-12 11:31:26

Ha Ha,

I remember in Utah when the dump of a city “West Valley City” tried to change their name to “Best Valley City”

I also remember parts of Van Nuys (Bon eyes for the locals) were renamed to Valley Glen.

“A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.”

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Fester
2007-01-11 17:47:50

Turdlock, gateway to Excremento!!

 
 
Comment by OCMetro
2007-01-11 14:47:44

It seems like Bizarro Land to see the words “luxury home” and Turlock in the same sentence.

Comment by Suzy K
2007-01-11 21:02:44

Excremento!!LOL!! Turlock, ‘just 11 miles outh of Modesto”…luxury homes for 870K?? How far from the livestock auction is it…and Denair? Now that’s a special place when the tule fog rolls in! They have a church on every corner in Turlock. Oh and the turkey farms are in Livingston at Foster Farms. Yeah that’ s a REAL SPECIAL part of the central valley for sure!!!!

 
 
Comment by death_spiral
2007-01-11 15:55:22

When did real estate become sexy? It’s about as sexy as Tammy Faye Baker, you idiot!

Comment by lefantome
2007-01-11 17:10:02

Come on now ….Tammy has “Curb Appeal”
(That is, don’t get any closer than the curb.)….

And with all those layers of paint and “roof coatings”, she’ll probably outlast most of today’s homes. Look for her smash hit “Big Tent” coming to NY this summer…..(little guy in chair sleeping).

 
Comment by AE Newman
2007-01-11 17:33:37

posted “It’s about as sexy as Tammy Faye Baker”

Classic two bagger!

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-01-11 17:55:54

Triple-bagger. You don’t want to force your dog to watch that sh#t.

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Comment by implosion
2007-01-11 18:46:47

Watching her would gag a maggot.

 
 
Comment by Curt
2007-01-11 18:57:47

Q. Why is Tammy Faye Baker like Aspen?

A. 2″ of powder and three lifts.

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Comment by Joey Joe Joe
2007-01-11 23:28:34

But here’s a bit of good news for those homeowners: County assessors will consider lowering the assessments — and thus property taxes — for recently purchased homes.

Take Quintero’s home. If the assessor’s office determines his Milestone Way home is worth $639,990 like the Tapestry Way house rather than the $874,890 he paid, Quintero potentially could owe $2,349 less per year in property taxes.

And it will only take 100 years to recoup his loss using his tax savings!

 
 
Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 13:24:09

“Often, he said, the appraised value of a home and what the owner wants out of it are two different things.”

I learned it on this blog:

Wish in one hand and Sh#t in the other; see which fills up first……

 
Comment by Recovering Homeowner
2007-01-11 13:24:31

Maisel Presley has left the building.

Comment by JimmyB
2007-01-11 19:40:25

That’s funny.

 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-01-11 13:24:43

“In California, where home sales tumbled 23 percent in 2006 and could drop another 7 percent this year, ‘the worst is over,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young,

I think LAY would also have you believe Kristie Alley actually lost weight on jenny craig.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-01-11 13:42:04

“‘Remember we’re going from a market where you couldn’t afford not to buy. Rates were so low, and prices were appreciating 15 to 20 percent, you just had to do that deal,’ she said. ‘Housing is always going to be sexy…but I think some of the buzz about it, when there’s less money being made, is going to go away.’”

When ‘Chief Economists’ start talking like carny barkers, the wheels are falling off.

Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-11 15:09:11

I’m 100% convinced that’s all they’re paid to do. WHether or not they are good at it determines their tenure. Academic economics is the very last thing the NAR wants to discuss when it relates to RE.

 
Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 15:35:47

‘Housing is always going to be sexy…but I think some of the buzz about it, when there’s less money being made, is going to go away.’

How “sexy” will housing feel when people are actually losing money? The “buzz” will become a deafening roar of panic when house prices really begin to tank.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-01-11 17:59:06

“How “sexy” will housing feel when people are actually losing money?”

Kathy Bates in a thong bikini on a 100% day after digging in the garden for 4 hours.

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Comment by StuckInBA
2007-01-11 13:45:55

She also said
“All that being said, I never subscribed to the bubble argument anyway so I’m feeling pretty confident about 2007,” Appleton-Young added.

Would she say the same thing in Jan 2008 and in 2009 ? About being confident ? I think so. And about the bubble ? Well there never was any bubble, so she will most likely blame the Fed for the “correction”.

 
Comment by rentor
2007-01-11 15:14:09

LAY for a moment I thought you meant Ken Lay. He laid a lot of Californians before he was finally laid.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-01-11 13:24:49

Here’s some good stuff:

http://www.bigpicture.typepad.com/

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-11 13:32:57

That is good, one of the commentors asked about cancelations being a leading indicator, which leads me to ask the board, does anyone have a list of leading/lagging indicators for the housing market???

Comment by Curt
2007-01-11 13:38:38

How ’bout the comments. This has to be the asinine/clueless one:

I have posted this before but it still confuses me. Now that we are well into the housing slowdown shouldnt cancellations start slowing down? I understand a year ago people were surprised by the slowdown and cancelled. Now that the slowdown is well known why do they keep buying and then cancelling at such an amazing rate? Jerry L.

Comment by John Fleming
2007-01-11 13:52:04

…”Now that the slowdown is well known why do they keep buying and then cancelling at such an amazing rate? “Jerry L.

Because cancelling is booming right now, stupid!
Don’t you read the press?

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Comment by Blackbox
2007-01-11 14:26:57

I want to be the first one at the cocktail party who brags about cancelling a new home contract right before the prices nosedived!

 
Comment by Blackbox
2007-01-11 14:30:56

I wanted to be the first one at a cocktail party to brag about how I cancelled a new home contract right before prices nosedived! Cancelling a new home contract is the new black.

 
Comment by Central Valley Boy
2007-01-11 15:47:58

I did! I bought two homes in Salton City in summer 2005 and cancelled them in summer 2006 before they could deliver them.

Just doin’ my part to pop the bubble . . .

 
Comment by John Fleming
2007-01-11 16:13:30

They are already building ‘buy to cancel’ -resorts all over
the country. If you cancel early you get a lot of extras.
Cancel now! It’s definite a canceller’s market.

 
Comment by talon
2007-01-11 18:18:51

I’ve seen the ads… “For the discriminating buyer, a limited number of luxury residences available for immediate cancellation…”

 
 
Comment by Pointlines
2007-01-11 14:18:17

They are cancelling at an amazing rate.

Looks like we found the next bubble.

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Comment by A_buyer
2007-01-11 20:35:01

A serious reply: One reason is that builders have been making it very, very easy to cancel. From what I have seen earnest money is minimal ($1,000 or $500) and there are a 1000 ways to get that back. Everything now is to sustain the illusion of sales. At this point I’m wondering how many of these may have been phony contracts.

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Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 22:20:41

Maybe the earnest money cash flow explains the builders’ stock price resilience in the face of an obvious real estate bust?

 
Comment by Ground Zero
2007-01-12 06:06:28

I have a friend who put down earnest money for a new condo in downtown Denver (LODO) and needs to get out of it due to a pending layoff. She thinks that if she cancels she will lose the earnest money. Can anyone explain to me how she might cancel and get her money back? Thanks

 
 
 
 
Comment by bubbagump
2007-01-11 13:51:12

He really roasted realtors today …
drug-addled ravings most recently unveiled by the tripheads at the National Association of Realtors …..rest of the NAR release amounted to a thinly veiled cry for help, revealing deep problems with either alcohol abuse or dementia. … NAR economists were treated for blunt head trauma, a medical condition which helps explain the rest of their recent public statements.

Wow. That’s pretty strong from someone who, compared to the crowd he plays in, is reserved.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 14:06:09

That is hysterical!

 
Comment by Robb
2007-01-11 16:16:10

Was that the ghost of Hunter S. Thompson?

 
 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-01-11 13:28:52

can anyone comment on this ?
“The latest economic statistics show that consumers depended on new debt for 90% of their cash flow during 2006. In 2005, 88% of new consumer cash flow came from debt.”

Comment by ed in texas
2007-01-11 13:50:22

Does the phrase ‘grasping at straws’ ring a bell?

 
Comment by John Fleming
2007-01-11 13:58:13

I think 100% is the limit. That’s …another 5 year to go?

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 14:22:14

Should that be true, those numbers are absolutely staggering.

Comment by Neil
2007-01-11 16:29:23

I’m dumbfounded… its basically says all of the economic growth in 2005 and 2006 was due to HELOC’s! (Ok, not all, but would the other economic growth occured without the spending due to HELOC’s?)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2007-01-11 16:17:08

I have a question on the stat.

I pretty much buy everything with a credit card, but pay it off each month in full. I NEVER carry a balance. The convenience and free float from purchase to repayment makes using a credit card a no-brainer.

So, if I were the entire market, would I be relying on new debt for 90%+ of my cash flow? Or 0%?

Comment by kerk93
2007-01-11 18:06:43

0%. You are using the credit card as a debit card. Although it does increase the money supply temporarily, it is quickly extinguished as you pay your bill from earnings, savings, etc. If you were to begin using your credit card with no way to pay it off, short term or long term, and at best could pay the minimums up to a certain limit, then that would be increasing the money supply. Again, not forever, since you have no hope of paying it off. When you essentially default, those who were thinking that credit was actual money will lose it. The net total that you created will return to zero.

On a small scale, that can be overcome. On a large scale, all that credit money evaporating at once causes the dreaded depression.

Comment by jsocal
2007-01-12 09:02:56

Anybody notice that Chase (amazon and United airlines credit card backer) has done away with the 30 day grace period on its credit cards effective Jan 1?
I’ve had to cut up three credit cards cuz I carry no balance.

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Comment by RayW
2007-01-11 13:29:26

Leslie Appleton-Young is without a doubt one of the more corrupt shills in the REIC California….”Buy before you’re priced out”….. Now it’s…”Buy because prices have stabilized.” Even though the truth is prices haven’t stabilized their falling.

Realtors are truly the modern day Carpet Baggers

Comment by PS
2007-01-11 13:35:04

Why do you say she’s corrupt? She’s doing exactly the job she’s paid to do.

Comment by athena
2007-01-11 13:44:35

ok… so she is paid to be a corrupt shill for her industry and anyone who actually forks over money to them based on her advice is an IDIOT!

 
Comment by Brooklynite
2007-01-11 14:02:43

Corrupt IS the wrong word. “Lying scumbag” is the appropriate terminology.

From an old Simpsons:
Lisa - Dad, what if I told you you could lose weight without dieting or exercise?
Homer - I’d say you were a lying scumbag.

One of the best lines ever, true for the diet-pill shills, true for the R/E shills.

Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 14:57:22

The world would be better off if LAY had remained a mere twinkle in her daddy’s scumbag.

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Comment by RayW
2007-01-11 16:10:49

She is corrupt because she is the disseminator of false and misleading information geared to deceive people into making a purchase based on that false or misleading information.

She along with David Lereah are part of NAR and CAR and I believe that all of them should be investigated for monopolistic business practices and attempted price fixing.

Sellers markets are good for the economy because sellers make money. Buyers markets are good for the economy because buyers don’t have to pay so much. What the f*ck? They have it coming and going! If that isn’t a fixed market I don’t know what is.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 22:26:18

“She along with David Lereah are part of NAR and CAR and I believe that all of them should be investigated for monopolistic business practices and attempted price fixing.”

Are you suggesting that attempted price fixing is illegal? Or that the NAR and CAR are guilty of fixing prices?

Just curious. I personally see them constantly lying about the likely future price direction (they always say “up” but the data keeps saying “down”), but I am not sure how they could “fix prices” given that they have run out of GFs willing to use suicide loans to buy homes they cannot afford. What, in particular, do they do which would qualify as price fixing?

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Comment by RayW
2007-01-12 08:30:26

What I mean to say is their attempt to keep control of the MLS and other sales tools gives them an unfair advantage and control of the market place. By maintaining a commision based sales compensation formula they entice Realtors and Real Estate Agents to keep prices elevated because that is how they make their money.

If the MLS was opened up and fixed compensation amounts were used there would less reason for people within the REIC to collude to keep prices high. I never believed the Real Estate agent I was using wanted to get the lowest price possible for me because it was costing her money. Her incentive was to go up in price because that is how she made her money.

The system needs to be reformed to be more open to scrutiny.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2007-01-11 13:42:47

Carpet baggers? Yes, yes and yes again. However, don’t forget the boiler room mortgage broker business which grew like mold on a dog turd for the last 6 years.

Pefect storm for trouble up ahead.

#1. Carpet bagger realtors with tame appraisers giving the nod to fake prices.
#2. Carpet bagger realtors helping to draw up Mickey Mouse mortgage paperwork via carpet bagger boiler room mortgage brokers.
#3. Carpet bagger mortgage brokers slipping fake paperwork to greedy banks and other entities.

If that isn’t a recipe for financial disaster I don’t know what it.

Comment by Norcal Ray
2007-01-11 15:22:44

I picture all the above carpet baggers drinking fine wine and cheese, and being carried in a carriage on the shoulders of a bunch of Joe and Jane 6 packs below them.

Comment by az_lender
2007-01-11 16:16:26

Often I picture myself living on the backs of my retail clientele. However, I have to support 1/5 of a government worker and some unknown fraction of a retiree, as well as maybe 1/6 of an illegal and some fraction of an indigent hospital patient. Not to mention my actual bondbroker, my FB landlord, my not-so-FB vacation landlord, my FB best friend, and the various Indian tribes who roll my cigarettes. Hmm, you economists must be very bright to be able to figure out ANYTHING.

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Comment by Nathan
2007-01-11 13:30:10

Hey Leslie:

The worst will be over in June 2009. The party is just getting started and hangover will grow larger each and everday as the housing market continues to collapse.

 
Comment by stockmarketguru
2007-01-11 13:31:01

test

 
Comment by mad_tiger
2007-01-11 13:34:12

“At one point back in the 1990s, over 50 percent of the residential properties had their assessments reduced,’ recalled David Leonard, San Joaquin County’s assistant assessor.”

So much for “prices never go down”. If the tax assessor says assessed values declined (with a painful hit to tax revenues) it can’t be attributed to a bubblehead misrepresentation or conspiracy.

Comment by Calm bfor the storm
2007-01-11 15:30:36

with a painful hit to tax revenues

Tax revenues don’t go down , just the assessed values. They can just adjust the property tax rate.

Comment by scdave
2007-01-11 15:44:11

No Calm;…Prop #13 is the CAP on the rate other than some local approvals possibly….If the assessment goes down the revenue also does….This happened before in 1993…..

Comment by Calm bfor the storm
2007-01-11 16:08:07

It’s different in Mass. Taxes go down,never. I guess it will be state by state.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2006/10/22/prices_down_bills_up/

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Comment by StuckInBA
2007-01-11 13:34:31

From the article …
“I think we’re going to hit the trough in the housing market in the first half of 2007,” said Nothaft. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to go back to the record levels of 2005.”

This thing is running too predictably. I have been reading this blog for over an year now. This change of tune has been predicted many times. This calling of false bottoms has been predicted. The meltdown in subprime was predicted. We might even see the gubermint doing something about mortage and appraisal fraud.

I think bloggers here have some superhuman powers like “common sense” !

Comment by santacruzsux
2007-01-11 14:00:18

This is just the beginning. I’ll never forget old Michael Sivy with his stock picks during the downturn in 2000-2001. That sucker pumped buying every single deadcat bounce in the tech market. I wonder where that fool finally landed…

Comment by krazy_canuck
Comment by santacruzsux
2007-01-11 14:32:53

No way! They brought that guy back! I haven’t read a cnn page in years after the shitcanned him and I couldn’t make comments on his page making fun of his calls. Well I guess when the stock market is booming it’s time to bring out the chumpy cheerleaders. Is Meeker making the rounds again as well? If so, I better start buying those puts I’ve been procrastinating on.

Sivy, what a joke.

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Comment by spike66
2007-01-11 16:51:14

Meeker never left Morgan Stanley. Guess they figured giving her the heave-ho would look bad. She still writes “analysis”.

 
 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 14:20:03

“…I wonder where that fool finally landed…”

In detox.

 
Comment by Grant
2007-01-11 16:44:03

He also has a monthly column in Money magazine where he consistently claims that all is well.

Comment by Central Valley Boy
2007-01-11 18:12:20

Reminds me of the mad stampede scene with Kevin Bacon near the end of “Animal House”!

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Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:17:49

How do you rebuild your credibility from zero?

I suppose if you disappear for a few years, everyone forgets how wrong you were… Maybe Richard Perle will be advising Presidents again…

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-01-11 13:35:24

“All that being said, I never subscribed to the bubble argument anyway so I’m feeling pretty confident about 2007,” Appleton-Young added.”

Talk to us when the spring inventory numbers come in, Leslie. Then we’ll want to re-check your confidence level.

Comment by ed in texas
2007-01-11 13:54:44

She’ll be confident then, too… ’cause what she always REALLY wanted to do was direct.

Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 14:59:52

She can always move down to LA to be a “screenwriter” (aka unemployed).

 
 
Comment by JimmyB
2007-01-11 19:45:39

CAR wreck.

 
 
Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-01-11 13:38:17

He said that many builders, worried that new homes would sit unoccupied for too long, have reduced prices and offered other incentives to attract buyers. ‘You’re seeing a flattening of the pricing for sure’

In what alternate universe do “reduced prices” equate to a “flattening of the pricing”?

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-11 13:42:15

exactly, and if I read the word “softening” market one more time…

Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-01-11 13:46:13

Everyone says that the U.S. doesn’t make anything anymore, but that’s not exactly true. We’re number one in the world in the manufacturing of bullsh!t.

Comment by Chad
2007-01-11 14:07:20

“Everyone says that the U.S. doesn’t make anything anymore, but that’s not exactly true. We’re number one in the world in the manufacturing of bullsh!t.”
I think you need to give George Carlin his due for that one.

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Comment by John Fleming
2007-01-11 14:11:20

“We’re number one in the world in the manufacturing of bullsh!t.”

So, as long as you can sell it worldwide!

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Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2007-01-11 16:15:20

We’re selling plenty of BS through MBS

 
 
 
Comment by robin
2007-01-11 18:43:01

How about “flaccid?” - :)

 
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-01-11 13:49:57

It’s a universe called ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ where it’s physical rules are rewritten every media cycle. No Memory, No Shame, and No Clue are few light years over.

 
Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 15:52:40

I suppose if you draw a flat line from the beginning of the bubble through to the end, you can see how prices got “flattened” by the market.

 
 
Comment by catspit1
2007-01-11 13:42:35

ok so i read in LA Times this morning that schwarzenegger wants to spend all this $$$ to fix up the state, because there will be “30% more people in California” in next 20 years or whatever they said. Anybody got any actual projections as to population? I thought recent numbers said we were losing people…

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:47:09

Free health care for everyone! That will help fill those vacant tract homes out in the Central Valley, though maybe not at a $500K price tag…

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-01-11 13:49:35

Add birth rate and immigration (both legal and illegal).

Sate to state, I heard we are losing, but we make it up in babies and people imports.

Comment by foreclose_me
2007-01-11 16:26:31

AKA Mexicans.

 
 
Comment by John Fleming
2007-01-11 14:15:25

Some say population always goes up…

 
Comment by Mike
2007-01-11 14:19:31

Catspit
Where space is concerned, California has plenty of room to grow. The UK has something like 60 million people and is roughly the same size as California BUT the UK is waaay overpopulated. I think California has around 36 million (God knows how many illegals but a LOT) so another 15 million could be absorbed quite easily in 20 years.

It really comes down to the old, old story. People who settle, get married and have kids, go to places and STAY in places where they can afford to live.

In all attractive places (for some) like London, Los Angeles, Paris, Rome, etc, there is always a floating population of younger people who have yet to decide where they want to settle but, as we are seeing, when it gets to the point that one is living on the financial edge because of high taxes, property prices, rents, health care, etc, people move.

I read a story recently of a young couple with 2 kids who sold up in California and moved to Las Vegas. I know there are streets full of empty properties in Las Vegas but this couple seemed more than happy that they had made the move. They said they got 3 times the house they could afford in California for the same money and their expenses were much less than in California.

As usual, predictions like Anrnie’s are hard to prove but it is easy to predict what will happen (even if not now but eventually) if the people stop coming because they just cannot afford the costs if prices continue to rise.

There might be a lot of wealthy people in California but most still work in supermarkets or department stores or other mundane $20,000 to $40,000 a year jobs and even if you exclude Beverly Hills and the other wealthy enclaves along the coastal areas, that leaves a lot of people who cannot afford even a $300,000 property………if there is such a thing in California anymore.

Of course, California is now dominated by latinos. Nothing wrong with that but people gravitate to places where they feel comfortable. If we get a continual influx of people from south of the border, I don’t think many will be able to afford $600,000 houses and the expenses which go with it. We could be heading into a, “Straw that broke the Camels back,” period. Btw, forget Arnie’s, “Health Coverage For All,” b.s. Ain’t gonna happen.

Comment by jjinla
2007-01-11 15:28:05

Arnie doesn’t want to give heath coverage for all. Just the illegals.

It amazes me that ANYONE middle class would stay here. Only the rich and poor get a house, food on the table and health insurance. If you are middle class you might actually end up with more overall if you take a lesser job and fall into the “low-income” category because then, the flood gates open. This state is so whacked.

Comment by Mike
2007-01-11 16:22:17

Illegals in California already have free medical via MediCal (not to be confused with Medicare). They also get free prescription drugs. They also get treated free for serious medical problems including those needing major surgery. They get free care if they are pregnant and it costs them nothing to have children or for any medical problems the children might have.

It’s against the law to deny them medical care and it’s against the law to deny them drugs because they are illegal and it’s against the law for any government employee to call the Immigration Department to report them.

About 8 years ago I had a cleaner come once a week (she was illegal because no American would do the job) to clean the condo I owned in West Hollywood. She took one morning (8 to noon) and I paid her $60 cash. She then went on to another job for the afternoon. I figure she made about $2,400 a month CLEAR because she had about 10 other places she cleaned. She paid no tax of course. She told me her husband worked in construction (roofing). He was also illegal and made $12 an hour. About another $2,000 a month. No taxes. So they were pulling in over $4,000 a month tax free. Being conservative that’s about $48,000 a year. Not bad. I figure that’s as good as $60,000 a year before Fed and State taxes.

Eventually she became pregnant, went to one of the Los Angeles Clinics and filled in a form wherein she said she was unemployed and her husband had been stopped at the border when trying to cross back after visiting family in Mexico.

The State paid for EVERYTHING. The treatment, pre-natal care, birth, medication, free check ups, etc. Of course she carried on working up to the 8th month. She would laugh when she told the story. To be truthful, I laughed with her for 2 reasons. First, I needed a cleaner and second, my laughter was more cynical than amused.

Multiply that hundreds, if not thousands of times and you can see why California is in debt. As I stated a few times on this blog, I’m a liberal but, jeeez….and btw, I hear from someone still in the condo complex, she now has 3 kids.

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Comment by Jerry
2007-01-11 16:45:10

That’s the California way. Don’t worry. With the new bonds coming on board everything will be ok. Middle class will be gone in California and any memories will be read in the history books if you can find one in english.

 
Comment by HARM
2007-01-11 18:07:14

About 8 years ago I had a cleaner come once a week (she was illegal because no American would do the job) to clean the condo I owned in West Hollywood. She took one morning (8 to noon) and I paid her $60 cash.

Not to nit-pick, Mike, but that works out to $15/hr tax-free, or equivalent to around $20/hr taxable income. I know *plenty* of Americans that would be more than “willing” to that kind of work if it were offered to them. I personally worked for much less than that for the first 6 years of my post-college adult life (1990s).

Don’t mean to harsh on you, buddy, but that BS liberal argument about “illegals only doing the jobs that Americans won’t” is wearing thin. I’ve been to New Zealand, Canada & Western Europe, and oddly enough, I saw plenty of pale faces doing very mundane jobs. Of course, those countries don’t have the ‘”just get here and you’re home-free” immigration policies that we do.

 
Comment by Carlsbad Renter
2007-01-11 18:41:19

Hey HARM,
Hate to tell you. I know too many people in agriculture (farmers, etc.) to not agree with Mike about “illegals only doing the jobs that Americans won’t.” They talk all the time how hard it is to find Americans willing to pick fruit and vegetables in the fields.

 
Comment by LILLL
2007-01-11 18:47:01

Defintately thousands.

 
Comment by Mike
2007-01-11 19:05:03

Harm
I looked for someone to do the job. I asked around. Zip, zero, nada. The nearest I got to “white” was a Swedish girl who was going to some kind of school for something or other. She was supposed to start on the Monday - never heard from her. I don’t know where you are but in the L.A area, the out of work wanna-be actors would rather be waiters or drive limo’s.

My other option was to employ a maid service which, I think, hires mainly latinos who cannot speak much english and, I suspect, are mostly illegal. They wanted $120.

It gets worse. My wife, here in Thousand Oaks, Ca. does some CPA work for several small companies. One being a billing company. The owner pays between $15 and $20 for someone to enter numbers into Excel and Quick Books. Nice little office. All the facilities to make life comfortable. In the last 6 months, the owner (a woman) has hired 3 different girls/women and spent one week training each of them which means she was paying THEM to learn the system. Eventually she let one go for taking days off or being late (I’m talking 1 or 2 hours not 15 minutes) or she simply didn’t show up at all some days. One started to complain that she was getting, “carpel tunnel syndrome” because of all the entry work. My wife told the owner, “Get yourself some workmans comp and quick because you’re going to get hit with a disability claim.” The woman stopped coming in, called to say her wrist really hurt. Guess what happened next? A letter arrived stating she was claiming disability.

The latest one is starting to complain that she spends over an hour stuck on the 101 going home and it takes her an hour to get to work in the morning. She is also making noises about health insurance. Bear in mind this is basically a 2 man (woman) operation with my wife coming in once a week to check the books.

 
Comment by tj & the bear
2007-01-11 21:42:17

Illegal immigration & H1B visas undermine the free market system and the US economy in general.

First, if there were no illegal immigrants, the wages for undesirable jobs would have to rise to compensate. If the higher wages result in an untenable business, then either the work isn’t necessary or technology would be developed to automate it.

Second, if there were no H1B visas, technology & scientific companies would also be forced to pay higher wages. Should there be a true shortage of talent (which I find hard to believe), then wages would rise high enough to draw more college students into the field.

 
Comment by sartre
2007-01-11 23:56:47

Higher wages, usually mean higher prices or jobs going elsewhere. Its easy to wave the american flag, until it hits the wallet.
The bottom line is that this will go on until– either living standards rise for 95% of world population, or they fall for the remaining 5% (thats us).

 
Comment by HARM
2007-01-12 10:12:59

Well said, TJ, well said.

 
Comment by HARM
2007-01-12 10:32:01

Mike,

Sorry to hear your wife had such a shitty time getting good workers. I don’t know, maybe the American work ethic has deteriorated a lot further than I thought, but it sure wasn’t like that when I first started doing low-skill jobs back in high school ~20 years ago.

The first jobs I took (and keep in mind this is L.A.) were house-painting, gardening, and –believe it or not– occasional housecleaning. The best paid maybe $7/hr, but averaged closer to $6. Even when you factor in inflation, this was pretty low pay –especially for a white dude. I kept up the housepainting and gardening PT until I graduated from college. After college (1991), I had high hopes of being gainfully employed, which were quickly crushed by the worst recessionary job market since the early 80s.

Oh well, I sucked it up and took whatever low-paying menial jobs that were offered, because in my family, you don’t “sponge off” the government dole or other people. I was the only college-educated furniture mover/bellhop/warehouse worker I knew. But, hey, those jobs paid the bills and kept me from totally giving up.

Maybe I’m exceptional, or maybe things really have changed *that much*, but I was definitely not like that when I was that age.

 
 
 
Comment by Crashwatcher
2007-01-11 23:32:16

$100 bucks a day tax free, free health care, no college loans, seems like a smart move to me.

 
Comment by Cow_tipping
2007-01-12 07:32:13

I believe UK is smaller than CA. Not sure by how much but CA is over 1000 miles north to south and ~300 miles wide on average.
Cool.
Srinath.

 
 
Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2007-01-11 15:12:34

Hey, I think the Governor is doing his part to accelerate the bursting of the bubble by increasing costs of staying in the state.

Accelerates outmigration, bursts the damn bubble.

 
Comment by Grant
2007-01-11 16:49:36

You can never extrapolate current population trends into the future because they can and do reverse course. In the 1940’s the countries with the highest birth rates included Russia and Japan. Russia is now losing population and Japan nearly so.

 
Comment by bmfarley
2007-01-11 21:39:21

None of his proposal includes high speed rail… that dummy!

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:43:32

“In Ripon, prices have dropped about $100,000 from the same time last year, from $546,000 to $450,000.”

What’s $100,000 to rich Californians? Just pocket change, right?

Comment by stockmarketguru
2007-01-11 14:15:38

100k aint crap when the average profit a person makes from selling their OC home is $239k

 
Comment by Norcal Ray
2007-01-11 16:09:50

My friend lives in Ripon and his house had appreciated 100% in 3 years (from 2002 to 2005). That was a strong sign how wacky the market got and that the top was very near.

 
Comment by death_spiral
2007-01-11 16:12:53

Mybe it should be renamed Ripoff.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:46:13

“‘That’s almost a two-year supply,’ said Peter Dennehy, a VP with The Sullivan Group.”

That must be some kind of a record. I checked out these “months supply” stats for the last bust, and it seems like they never topped out over two years. Something’s got to give:

1) Prices fall;
2) Owners repartmentize their condo-conversions and rent them out;
3) Owners hold on until bankruptcy forces them out.

Anything I missed here?

Comment by Neil
2007-01-11 16:36:05

Anything I missed here?
Insurance policies rub together creating fire… ;)
Owners get Bubba for a roomie.

Neil

 
 
Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 13:46:32

“Three main drivers of affordability – mortgage rates, house prices and family income – are stabilizing or improving for home owners.”

This was the main statement from the LAY article that her and the other conference members based their predictions on. What horse manure! The only thing in sync with their predictions is historically low mortgage rates. The other two: Prices are WAY out of line compared to wages, and wages are statically stagnant if not falling in purchase power.

Wow, new “service sector jobs” created! Ya that will bring a surge of buyers this spring! They’ll all be wearing their Taco Bell uniforms.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:48:53

The only reason affordability has drastically improved is that CAR moved the goal posts. She either accidently or deliberately misses the fact that prices cannot keep going up from record-low levels of affordability, especially with subprime lenders going out of business left and right.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 15:03:55

Minimum wage is going up to $7.25/hour. That should get the equity train rolling again!

Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:03:13

$7.25 x 40 hours x 50 weeks = $14,500 per year. $14,500 x 40% / 12 months = $483 payment. With a 1% teaser rate on a negative amortization mortgage, this $483 could finance $580,000.

We have no affordability problem in California, a minimum wage worker can afford a $580,000 home.

Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-11 16:54:41

Just one? A couple of them, easy, on no doc. They could start with just 1 and then roll the paper gains into many more properties, indefinitely. The formula works perfectly in any ponzi scheme.

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Comment by DAVID
2007-01-11 19:14:33

LMAO, its funny because it is true, look at Casey.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:51:27

“The supply of unsold homes for all of San Diego County has since declined by about one-third, to 14,936 as of the end of 2006. ‘I think we’re seeing some investors taking their properties off the (resale) market and putting their houses in the rental market,’ said Dennis Smith, a real estate agent in Carlsbad. ‘As well, I think we’re seeing some sellers who would like to move up, but are finding that people won’t buy their houses for the prices they want and therefore they can’t buy the move-up houses they want.’”

Ancient history there; as of the moment, SD zip shows 16,732 homes, and we know that excludes new construction, FSBO and Craig’s listings, to name a few other sources of inventory. For that matter, I can’t recall checking zip once over this holiday season when the number of homes for sale showed up below 15,000. I wonder if he accidently used December 2005 numbers there…

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:53:19

“The profit rate reaped from the typical Orange County home sale last month also fell from the month before. First American reported this week that 5.7 percent of local homesellers got less than what they paid for their homes, compared to 4.3 percent in November and 2.4 percent in October.”

Well, at least OC homes never go down in price, despite the big jump in the percent of sellers who got less than what they paid for their homes, right?

Comment by Neil
2007-01-11 16:47:13

“OC is different, it’s going to get hammered.”

I do have a friend at Ameriquest attempting to get out. Alas, my company has a hiring freeze in California now;That was a rude shock to discover. An ex-employee called to ask me for a job explaining that there seemed to be a hiring freeze at my company… A phone call later… we’re in a hiring freeze in California. Gulp… Anyone else think we’re about to join Nissan, Lockheed, and Boeing tranfering jobs out of state? Not to mention payroll cuts at the sub-primes. Ouch.

Prepare for the spring inventory…
To think: if prices drop 20%, that will only convince companies that they can only hire out of state… hmmm….

Neil

Comment by john Doe
2007-01-12 12:11:36

Neil,

What kind of business do you work in? Any chance you’ll mention the company’s name? It’s not a takeover target is it?

John Doe

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 13:55:39

“In California, where home sales tumbled 23 percent in 2006 and could drop another 7 percent this year, ‘the worst is over,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.”

Who is ahead in the race to call the bottom at this point? That is, has LAY or DLR called more (false) bottoms so far?

Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:09:12

The really galling part will be when we finally reach the bottom after their first 200 premature exclamations, they will be right, and they will say they were just a “bit early” on their previous predictions and they will blame factors “beyond their control.”

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 16:41:24

I guess you could argue that bears are always early during the boom phase and bulls are always early during the hangover phase…

 
 
 
Comment by Blackbox
2007-01-11 13:55:41

Must be the new Algebra: Home prices nose diving for home sellers = Home prices flattening out for prospective new buyers

….. who better get in at what can only be termed bargain level pricing.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 14:13:04

“Prices appear to have reached a temporarily declining plateau.”

 
 
Comment by stockmarketguru
2007-01-11 13:59:38

Downtown San Diego has unbelievable amount of condos being built. All high-rise condos going for over 300k easily. A real crash waiting to happen, the local economy can not sustain the number of people moving into the area. Just don’t see it happening anytime soon.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 14:11:44

“Just don’t see it happening anytime soon.”

It is already happening. You don’t see it because your eyes are searching for something dramatic, like a California earthquake, but the crash in progress moves slower than a slow-moving California land slide, which can move very gradually over a period of months before engulfing homes in its path…

 
 
Comment by garyb
2007-01-11 14:01:15

just for laughs…..tinyurl.com/yesl3h

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 14:03:40

‘Housing is always going to be sexy…but I think some of the buzz about it, when there’s less money being made, is going to go away.’

Losing money is the new black.

Comment by santacruzsux
2007-01-11 14:13:27

The fact the she said that housing is “sexy” speaks volumes about her comprehension level of economics. Is that what investing has been reduced to? I’m about two drinks away from giving up on mainstream America.

Sexy… I can’t believe she actually said that. Sigh…..

Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:22:47

She’s a realtwhore. Money = Sexy.

 
 
 
Comment by Blackbox
2007-01-11 14:05:11

Hey National City. Downtown SD and little Italy have cornered the “younger, more affluent” market. What else do you got? Maybe you can fund a detailed study on how you are running out of land too!

 
Comment by Reno Girl
2007-01-11 14:08:59

Can someone explain why a large area of NV, with only 500,000 people, needs this many new home developments on top of an 11 month supply of existing retail homes. Outrageous - I haven’t seen any of the starting prices drop much and I watched them all last year. 3-4 years ago starting prices were about half what you see here. Warning, PDF alert!
http://www.rgj.com/realestate/newhomes/map/newhomedirmap.pdf

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 14:59:13

Don’t tell me you haven’t heard by now that everyone “needs” to buy two or more homes to make sure the Jones’ understand how rich they are, not to mention the chance to capture endless outsized price appreciation?

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 16:07:20

Reno Girl. Reno is severely overbuilt. As someone born and raised, but living away for many years, I am visiting and am blown away. There is no market for all of these new homes, forget the existing ones. And this does not even include all of the condos. Yeah, listing prices are not really down, YET. People are starting to get a clue. I know some who are selling, and they are realizing buyers are few and far between (even lookers period). There are homes that have been on the mls for over a year with no price drops. These people are losers. They will either come to their senses, or never sell. Only the very best stuff is moving. I stick to my belief that Reno is the most overpriced market in the country. Given the poor wages, a 50% haircut would be needed to get back to some sort of affordability for first timers. Otherwise, new money moving here is the only way to prop up the housing market. The speculation here is rampant. I am starting to see flippers in trouble trying to sell half completed projects. Just trying to bail out basically. Unfortunately for them, they are trying to get back their initial investment which is not happening. I have been watching craigslist for months and the same stuff shows up over and over. People desperately trying to find someone to pay off their mistakes. It is going to really get messy around here in the next year. I anticipate a lot of the new developments will remain partially vacant for years to come. Shame on the community development people though. Permitting all of this overbuilding was just criminal. And the quality of some of it is so incredibly poor. That thing over on the corner of Moana and Plumas is disgusting. Not selling, of course. The Twilight Zone around here for certain.

 
 
Comment by Unreal_Estate
2007-01-11 14:13:26

I heard the first commercial from an attorney regarding suing if you weren’t “properly informed” about the loan you have. It caught my attention after it had been going and I’ve tried to catch it again. This should be interesting.

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-11 14:20:56

Why am I not surprised???? Next will be a class action against some of the subprimes…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-01-11 14:24:12

Aw, Lauderdale, that was MY idea! And let’s throw in some Elliott Spitzer-like actions at the government level. Just for laughs.

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-11 15:26:58

ROFLMAO, even spitzer couldn’t get through to some of these cretins… but what a mental image.

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Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:25:30

Who will be there to sue? All of the subprimes will flame out with their CEOs taking golden parachutes.

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Comment by Blackbox
2007-01-11 14:41:13

In other news, “Real Estate Investment Clubs” all over the United States are turning themselves, seemingly overnight, into “Class Action Litigation Clubs”. Their old slogan used to be “We’re geniuses, we’re brilliant, and gosh darn it, people envy us”.
Any suggestions what the new slogan should be?

Comment by Mike
2007-01-11 14:50:55

Blackbox
“We were greedy, we were dumb, and gosh darn it, how does a fu*ked buyer get out of this mess.”

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 14:52:13

SDCIA = Stupid Delusional California Investors Anonymous

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-11 15:09:49

It HAS to be someone else’s fault!!! even if I didn’t read the fine print, had no idea what I was doing etc, so lets just SUE… ugh.. Must go find wine….

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Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:27:54

We’re stupid, we’re gullible, and people pity us.

 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-11 17:00:24

We’re a BK LLC, so sue me.

 
 
Comment by GPBlank
2007-01-11 18:36:20

All the asbestos manufacturers went bk because of the class action suits….wonder if this will be the fate of the subprimes? Come to think of it, both industries are toxic.

Comment by josemanolo7
2007-01-12 00:19:02

subprimes will go under even without class action suits.

 
 
Comment by jim A
2007-01-12 04:50:55

Mister Smith, Is this your signature?
yes.
Are these your initials next to paragraphs 7, 24, 35 and 42.
yes.
Any were you 28 years old in 2006 when you signed this document?
yes.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-01-11 14:24:01

Well, our friend Casey has decided that his “goal” for this year is to have 5K a month of passive income from his “investment” properties. He has decided that he must buy a 100-200 unit apartment complex to accomplish this.

Sometimes I think this guy is a guinea pig for some mental health professional. I love to fantasize along with everyone else but it would take some serious hallucinogens to get from where he currently is to being able to buy a 200 unit apartment complex.

Comment by Dan
2007-01-11 14:40:25

He’s dragging everybody, who will “bite”, along for the ride. As far as the apt complex….he’s either yanking their chain or has cracked up. Maybe it’s a new phase he’s entering to setup his defense. My gut tells me he’s no dummy…..

Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 18:27:03

Casey=Narcissistic Personality Disorder

The schemes and debacles will continue to accelerate for the attention fix and won’t stop until he crashes and burns…. which seems to be coming up shortly

 
 
Comment by Crash Landers
2007-01-11 14:46:09

Yes that is hilarious, he says it must be zero down.

Can you imagine trying to find a 200 unit apartment building where you can buy with 100% subprime loan and then being cash flow + each month?

Its a crazzzzeee fantasy world he’s in -however- he DID get 8 home loans 100% while unemployed so it seems possible to him. I would have thought 8 loans while unemployed was impossible.

And yet crazier things happened during the dot com funding insane buyout prices of yester year.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 16:19:31

“…he says it must be zero down.

Can you imagine trying to find a 200 unit apartment building where you can buy with 100% subprime loan and then being cash flow + each month?”

No, can’t imagine even starting the hunt. I mean zero down on a multi family generating positive cash flow, and in this market? And with his credit?? This guy is delusional. There is no such thing as what he is looking for.

Comment by OCDan
2007-01-11 17:04:26

If he gets a subprime loan for this wackiness I will officially state that I have no faith, whatsoever, in the US economy. If some nut job loan officer approves this, then the banking industry, as we know it, is def. shot to h3ll in a handbasket. Furthermore, if he gets a loan like this it means one, or a combo, of three things: 1) money is worth nothing anymore, 2) loaning money is all about fees and interest, not the risk of loaning the money, 3) loan officer has lost mind. Also, anyone loaning this guy money shold be checked into a mental institution and never allowed out.

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Comment by Joe Momma
2007-01-11 23:44:48

You seem to be taking this serious, OCDan. LOL

This country is totally focked up.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2007-01-11 14:46:35

“Sometimes I think this guy is a guinea pig for some mental health professional.”

Either that or his mama dropped him on his head when he was a baby.

2007-01-11 17:49:48

Or perhaps dropping him on his head as a baby was the experiment — hypothesis confirmed: floor 1, humans 0

 
 
Comment by patient renter
2007-01-11 14:53:48

Man I continue to feel sorry for his wife.

Comment by death_spiral
2007-01-11 16:18:22

that might be premature…wait til you meet his wife first…she may make him look like a genius

 
 
Comment by calex
2007-01-11 14:54:42

There is one for sale in Fort Worth complete with drug dealers, 50% occupancy and paper thin doors with home invasion robberies. And yes your car will be broken into everyday. Oh incase you want 2 200 unit buildings, the one across the street is in Foreclosuer as well. I would hate to be the person collecting rent on those. Must be met with a gun at every door.

Comment by Matt_In_Tx
2007-01-11 16:13:03

Didn’t Casey buy a Dallas area tilting house sight unseen once already?

I appreciate the summary punchlines posted here. I’ve tried to skim his blog in the past but it was too painful. Thanks for the Good Parts version.

Comment by JimmyB
2007-01-11 19:56:42

Riding that train, high on cocaine, casey’s loans are gonna, take his deeds.

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Comment by Arwen U.
2007-01-11 15:51:46

What’s really frightening about Casey and the building is — what happens to the poor tenants when something breaks? I suppose he’s also fantasizing about hiring all the work done.

 
Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:33:35

He really must think real estate is some kind of giant ATM just waiting for him to start making withdrawals. Has it occurred to him if such a deal were out there, someone else would have already taken it? Or perhaps someone might even be willing to pay for that cashflow? He is stupid beyond description.

 
Comment by Crash Landers
2007-01-11 17:02:27

Everyone loves (to hate) Casey. But we really need to thank him for bringing NATION ATTENTION to light the super duper ez credit for unemployed masses no doc 100% loan situation. He’s getting or has gotten national attention.

When all his homes go to foreclosure they will do follow up story nationally on a slow news days. Even countrywide lent him money.

Mostly you hear about inflating income on loan apps, but UNEMPLOYED people? wow. I know its ’secured’ credit but dammmn.

He wont even do any work himself on the properties. I bought a fixer years ago and busted my ass painting and shit and I had a day job. Its so hilarious to read his situation he did everything wrong including having the worst timing ever and quit job. Then add blowing 30k on scaminars.

But his wife is hot. If I were him i’d concentrating on thinking up new ways to bone her and fuggetabout real estate.

Comment by Auger-inn
2007-01-11 20:27:51

But his wife is hot. If I were him i’d concentrating on thinking up new ways to bone her and fuggetabout real estate.

I think he needs to be concerned about how many ways his creditors are going to be boning him.

Comment by Cow_tipping
2007-01-12 09:03:15

Not to mention what being the pretty boi is going to be like in pelican bay …
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

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Comment by layinglowinla
2007-01-11 18:07:34

This young pup is so far gone…I mean totally MENTAL in the worst way. Greed has embedded into his brain like mad cow disease and his fever will not be cured even if every reader of this blog were to ring a cow bell next to his head. Perhaps he’ll be the last, seventh cow left, not getting the message that the first six have already been devoured by the seven, anorexic cows.
I know former investors with medical and law degrees who literally lost their personal residences because they bought apartment buildings with only 5% down back in 1990 in Orange County.

Not even in my most stoned moments have I had such delusions as this kid. I don’t know what he’s smoking but I wouldn’t dare sample his schwag…

 
Comment by EquityRefugee
2007-01-12 06:03:02

We almost have $5k a month since we re-fied the house and used the money to pay off the adjustable on our 6-unit mini-complex. Sold the house and dumped most of the profit into the rentals. We only spent $2300 on a 2 bdr unit and were able to increase the rent by $300/month. Last year instead of a rent increase we started charging for the parking spaces. Its amazing how all the arguments stopped when your designated space is attached to $$.

Also, Casey should know that there is no such thing as “passive” if you are a landlord.

 
Comment by Cow_tipping
2007-01-12 08:58:35

Thats what is wrong with america …
He wants to buy a 200 unit apartment building, and he cant even fix up the 4 he has, and guess what, he’ll easily blame the fact that no one gave him money for his failure.
I have had a old boss who told me …
I have $100/hr to offer for this position, and If I spend all of it and more … If I fail, I’d just say with 100 that’s all I could do. If I succeed, I’d say Yea great, I found this great guy who could do it for 100 … win win … but if I pay someone 90 a hour, and I fail, I’ll just get hit by management saying … you had the money, why didn’t you spend it and get it done. And if I succeeded, I’d get only 90 for other positions setting myself a lower and lower bar to sneak under each time. That was the best boss I ever had.
That’s what he’s going to do. He could well be my boss. Basically, spend as much as you possibly can. if you fail, you can blame the lack of $$$ … if you succeed … you can say, I’m so great, I got it done for Just 20 million. Easy.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-01-11 14:30:45

It was inevitable, wasn’t it? Only in Clownifornia:

S.F. company launches ‘Meth Coffee’

By RON HARRIS
Associated Press Writer
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A mysterious San Francisco company has launched an equally mysterious product aimed at coffee drinkers seeking an extra boost. The company and the product share the same name - Meth Coffee.

It’s a thinly veiled reference to methamphetamines, but the company admits there is no meth in its coffee - just rich arabica coffee beans and something a little different called yerba mate.

Yerba mate comes from South America and is used to make teas and coffees there. Sellers of yerba mate products claim it raises your energy level, so pairing it with already caffeinated coffee beans could provide quite the boost.

“If you’re just trying it for the first time, don’t throw back five cups like regular coffee. Ease into it. Have a little. Feel the rush, the euphoria, the smooth-edged high. Then go for more, if you want,” the company said on its Web site.

The product, which went on sale Wednesday, is available only at the site.

But don’t try asking the brains behind Meth Coffee for his secret recipe. His identity is hidden from view at this point and he only goes by the name `The Roaster.’

Meth Coffee’s questionable product naming strategy is similar to the tactics of Las Vegas-based Redux Beverages LLC, which recently introduced its energy drink, Cocaine. That product, like Meth Coffee, contains no actual illegal substances, but does offer the drinker an energy boost thanks to caffeine and guarana, a South American seed that purports to be an effective stimulant.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-11 16:13:30

Anything for a buck. This country is morally bankrupt.

Comment by OCDan
2007-01-11 17:14:23

We may be morally bankrupt, but all that debt we have =wealth!
Almighty dollar, baby!

 
 
Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:46:20

I wonder if you can go down to the coffee shops in SF and smoke a joint with your cup of meth coffee.

Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 18:30:21

Of course

 
 
 
Comment by desidude
2007-01-11 14:36:49

Here is contribution from Ventura county

243 SANDBERG ST
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=16423589

12/29/2003: $449,000
06/13/2003: $400,000
03/26/1999: $221,000

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=113589&page=3&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=lh2pqd4k&source=CRISNET
Price Reduced: 11/17/06 — $610,000 to $565,000

the now obligatory, “Subject to short pay on 1st and 2nd trust deed”
this at the end “Price firm”
. I’m this was before it was reduced 45K

If one can find, looks like this is a case of HELLOCed buyer. based on purchase price he had 150K HELOC(610K orgl list price). But I think it went in into thin air with the price reduction.

 
Comment by Dan
2007-01-11 14:37:22

Harris Polls:

Prestige and Professions
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=685

Guess who’s last….

Trusted Advice
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=661

Wanna guess who’s next to last….

Comment by manraygun
2007-01-11 15:43:08

Though real estate agents are near the bottom of the list it’s pretty shocking that 65% still “somewhat” trust their advice. I would have thought the “not at all” number would be higher. I suppose all the FBs and people with dwindling paper equity have a strong motviation to believe in them. Real estate agent as home equity Santa Claus.

Comment by bubbleglum
2007-01-11 16:16:21

I find it interesting that most people don’t think eating is very important.

“This year, farmers were included on the list of occupations for the first time. Just over one-third of adults (36%) say that farming is an occupation of very great prestige, while 15 percent say it has hardly any prestige at all.”

Comment by IrvineRenter
2007-01-11 16:52:02

I don’t think eating is the problem, it is the idea of stomping around in cow dung.

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Comment by JimmyB
2007-01-11 19:54:08

It’s the tight Wrangler jeans and the Skoal that is the problem. Oh, and waking up at 4:30AM.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by patient renter
2007-01-11 14:44:32

“‘the worst is over,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young”

Because you she says it is or because she has some evidence to back up her bold statement?

“‘Remember we’re going from a market where you couldn’t afford not to buy. Rates were so low, and prices were appreciating 15 to 20 percent, you just had to do that deal,’ she said.”

WTF is this lady talking about? The idea that someone “had to” do a deal is exactly why forclosures are on the rise. What a ridiculous statement. I can’t stand reading quotes from this person.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 22:56:45

What is truly hilarious is that these clowns think they can hoodwink the rest of the population into believing the worst is over when many of us personally know someone whose home dropped in value by 25% since summer of 2005 (or at least I do). We are not even past the denial stage in the housing bubble stages of grief, as all the “experts” are trying to ignore the bubble’s untimely demise and convince us that it will soon come back from the grave. It will not bottom out until everyone “knows” what a stupid investment move it is to buy ten houses (or 28, in the case of the Canadian woman who flipper-flopped in Florida).

Comment by patient renter
2007-01-12 11:27:58

I think you’re right. From reading early 90s articles written after the last bust, by the time it was over EVERYONE knew that the market was toast and almost NOBODY wanted to buy a house. It was the complete opposite of what we have today. So yeah, we still have a long way to go before we get to that mindset.

 
 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 14:45:01

“The Central Valley Association of Realtors reported 1,788 existing houses sold in Banta, Tracy and Mountain House by late December. It’s about half as many as in 2005, and the median price of a home dropped from $580,000 in the second half of 2005 to $530,000 in the second half of 2006.”

Nice, a 20% drop in one year! This is my kind of “sticky on the way down”!

Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 14:50:32

Oops, that’s “only” a 10% drop, I grabbed the wrong quote.

This one is the 20% drop:

“In Ripon, prices have dropped about $100,000 from the same time last year, from $546,000 to $450,000.”

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 14:50:56

Makes you wonder how fast prices would have to fall for these Realtwhores to admit they were crashing…

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-11 15:39:22

merely a flesh wound;-)

 
 
 
Comment by Cow_tipping
2007-01-11 14:46:27

“In California, where home sales tumbled 23 percent in 2006 and could drop another 7 percent this year, ‘the worst is over,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.”

“‘Remember we’re going from a market where you couldn’t afford not to buy. Rates were so low, and prices were appreciating 15 to 20 percent, you just had to do that deal,’ she said. ‘Housing is always going to be sexy…

Really moron …
OK lets try this then … A 24 year old kid with no steady job bought 6 of them. How do you explain that …
I’ll give you a hint …
We were going from a market that people bought when they didn’t need and bought 2-3-4-5-6-10 houses in many cases … to one where they now have to sell, and only the ones that absolutely need a house are even looking at buying one.
We are going from a speculator only market, to a resident only market. Prices are tumbling cos 90% of the market has disappeared or is bankrupt … or in jail … soon …
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 14:48:50

Housing is always going to be sexy…

I guess some people find being f’d in the rear to be “sexy”!

Comment by John Fleming
2007-01-11 16:30:48

Sexy?
If you like boobie…traps!

 
 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-11 15:12:43

““First American reported this week that 5.7 percent of local homesellers got less than what they paid for their homes, compared to 4.3 percent in November and 2.4 percent in October.”

Well at least Gary Watts can truthfully claim 5.7% is in the bag. I like the trend!

 
Comment by Wes Chester
2007-01-11 15:18:13

CLOSE DOWN THE BLOG. The realtor’s have found a new foolproof tool to move houses no matter what - giving the buyers ice cream.

http://tinyurl.com/ykjn7e

The reality is the marketplace they are spinning about in this article is on the brink of serious trouble.

Comment by AE Newman
2007-01-11 17:32:04

posted “giving the buyers ice cream.”

Cupcakes failed as long time readers recall…. maybe?

2007-01-11 17:43:49

It was cookies. Cupcakes are for condos.

Comment by Portland Mainer
2007-01-11 19:12:03

Right - but if it’s a co-op you use Yodels or Ring Dings.

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Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 18:35:23

Let me guess…. they’re serving “Fudge Packed Sundaes”…..

 
 
 
Comment by Wes Chester
2007-01-11 15:41:20

I’m not sure how how good their crystal ball is, but here are California price predictions from Housing Predictor.

The California housing market is the most dramatic market in the nation with major ups and major downs. Unfortunately, for California the boom ended some time back and has transitioned into one of the nation’s all-time busts.

The inventory of homes, condos and even new homes is the highest it has been since 1990, and it seems it’s going to take California sometime to adjust to the changing market. Gold has been found in California real estate for many, but many are now looking for a way out.

As the Nation’s most populous state with more than 32-million residents, the price of housing doubled and even tripled in many areas over the past few years. It’s a buyers market all over California and things don’t appear as though they are going to change for sometime.

El Centro is in the heart of the rich farmlands of Imperial Valley, bordering Mexico. It was booming in 2005 and part of 2006, selected as Housing Predictor’s top appreciating real estate market in the Golden State, due mainly to the first time home purchases of Mexican citizens who had made the community their home. But as interest rates rose, sales slowed and are projected to slow further in 2007 by Housing Predictor, producing a fall of 6.9% on average by the end of 2007.

In the state’s largest metropolitan area of Los Angeles real estate sales have slowed and will see an average drop of 11.4% on average in 2007. The greater Los Angles area has a median price for a single family home of $496,000.

But in San Diego, which seems to have the best weather of any where in the nation, the housing market is seeing more drastic reductions of homes for sale, and it is projected to fall 13.1% through 2007.

The San Diego market grew at the highest level of anywhere in the state over the past three years.

In northern California rural Redding has seen it’s market change from a highly active market with a median price of $151,000 to slower times. Redding is projected to fall 5.3% through 2007.

In the scenic rolling hills of the Santa Cruz Mountains outside of San Jose, the median price of $695,000 will soon drop an average of 9.4% for 2007.

San Jose and Santa Clara, the home of high tech and the computer industry will experience disappointing losses in appreciation of 10.4% on average in 2007.

More rural Yuba City is a market that held it’s own until sales slowed, and it will mark 6.4% in average depreciation through the year with a median price of $139,000.

The wine country has always been a real estate dream of sorts, but in Santa Rosa sales which were at a record pace, have slowed and will fall 6.8% on average in 2007.

San Francisco, however, has become a new market of sorts with a large migration of former Hong Kong citizens, which led to more properties without financing than at any other time in The City’s history. But appreciation has all but stopped in the City by the Bay and it is projected to fall another 11.1% in 2007.

http://www.housingpredictor.com/california.html

Comment by Luvs_footie
2007-01-11 15:47:10

WOW…….haircuts for everybody

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 16:37:29

“The California housing market is the most dramatic market in the nation with major ups and major downs. Unfortunately, for California the boom ended some time back and has transitioned into one of the nation’s all-time busts.”

I hate to see predictions sugar coated like that…

Comment by Luvs_footie
2007-01-11 17:14:52

Hey GS

San Diego -13.1% for 2007.

Don’t buy now and save $65K over 12 months…….NICE

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 22:48:42

Wow — at that rate, the median-income SD household could save a full year’s worth of pre-tax income just by not owning a home!

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Comment by Portland Mainer
2007-01-11 19:10:05

“Gold has been found in California real estate for many, but many are now looking for a way out”.

In the 5.5 years ors so we’ve been outside Portland, ME since moving from NY, we have been surprised on a number of occasions to learn about people moving here from California. You’d expect this to happen to a job transferee or a returning native of the state. But these were people “who just moved here”. Equity nomads.

Comment by EquityRefugee
2007-01-12 06:16:14

We prefer the term equity refugee, looking to settle down. Nomads never settle.

 
 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-01-11 16:49:08

Short sale discussion on FL Realtor’s Blog:

http://activerain.com/blogsview/33665/A-dollar-short-and

I’ve read some of his posts and he’s a pretty straight shooting dude.

 
Comment by MacAttack
2007-01-11 17:11:32

Having spent thirty years in the Bay Area… I would NEVER, EVER pay more than $250,000 to live in RIPON, of all places. EVER. So, if there are more people like me (I suspect there are)… prices have about 40% to fall.

 
Comment by OCDan
2007-01-11 17:32:59

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, CA housing is in for a large haircut, in some areas, upwards of 50%! CA is toast, the CAR knows, sellers know it, everyone knows it. At this point we are all just waiting for the floor to give way. Everyone, but sideliners are hanging on for dear life. Unfortunately, this outcome has no happy endings. Things will get messy from the BA to Bakersfield to Santa Barbara, to LA to the OC to San Diego. Prices are unsustainable, new homes selling for 800K are cheapy and cheaply built and we here on this blog now it! There are few buyers left and that well is drying up quickly.

Update alert: buddy of mine after 82 days has a buyer. Said he signed a ton of papers last night. Also said he will shoot this GF and his wife if this deal falls through. All totaled, 82 days to sell a 200K home for 600K in Rancho Santa Margarita. And people say this market is going to land softly. BWWAAAAAH! 82 days, thats about 22% of the entire year on the market. OUch!

2007-01-11 17:52:38

I don’t know. I’ve recently found people think we are in for a rough patch, but God has a new law of physics he just handed down. It’s magic also. Real Estate can never fall more than 10%. I don’t know how the sheep communicate these new laws to each other, but it’s remarkable how they get transmitted and regurgitated.

Comment by Luvs_footie
2007-01-11 18:45:43

I don’t know. I’ve recently found people think we are in for a rough patch, but God has a new law of physics he just handed down. It’s magic also. Real Estate can never fall more than 10%.

Was it 10 commandments…….or 10%?

 
Comment by krazy_canuck
2007-01-11 18:49:18

LOL - I’ve heard that one too many times to count…

 
Comment by David
2007-01-12 01:28:21

I think thats what the geniuses think who buy the sub-prime mortgage packages.

 
 
Comment by imploder
2007-01-11 18:42:56

“BA to Bakersfield to Santa Barbara, to LA to the OC to San Diego”

OCDan…You’re doing Woody Guthrie proud:

This bust is my bust, this bust is your bust,
BA to Bakersfield, and Santa Barbara,
LA to the OC, and Sand Diego…oooooooh
Yes, this Bust was made for you and Me

Comment by Portland Mainer
2007-01-11 20:09:18

Here’s some good wise Woody Guthrie on California nearly 70 years ago:

Lots of folks back East, they say, is leavin’ home every day,
Beatin’ the hot old dusty way to the California line.
‘Cross the desert sands they roll, gettin’ out of that old dust bowl,
They think they’re goin’ to a sugar bowl, but here’s what they find –
Now, the police at the port of entry say,
“You’re number fourteen thousand for today.”
CHORUS:
Oh, if you ain’t got the do re mi, folks, you ain’t got the do re mi,
Why, you better go back to beautiful Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia, Tennessee.
California is a garden of Eden, a paradise to live in or see;
But believe it or not, you won’t find it so hot
If you ain’t got the do re mi.

You want to buy you a home or a farm, that can’t deal nobody harm,
Or take your vacation by the mountains or sea.
Don’t swap your old cow for a car, you better stay right where you are,
Better take this little tip from me.
‘Cause I look through the want ads every day
But the headlines on the papers always say:

If you ain’t got the do re mi, boys, you ain’t got the do re mi,
Why, you better go back to beautiful Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia, Tennessee.
California is a garden of Eden, a paradise to live in or see;
But believe it or not, you won’t find it so hot
If you ain’t got the do re mi.

BTW, the Nanci Griffith cover on this song is beautiful, imho.

http://www.geocities.com/nashville/3448/doremi.html

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-01-11 22:21:00

Why did everyone decide to start calling it “The OC” just because a bad TV show did?

 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2007-01-12 14:24:16

“Things will get messy from the BA to Bakersfield to Santa Barbara, to LA to the OC to San Diego.”

No way. The Chargers will go to and win the Super Bowl and EVERYONE will want to move here to be by the winners. 25% appreciation in San Diego in 2007 - in the bag!!!!

Of course, if the Chargers lose ……. :D

 
 
Comment by TampaBayBubbleBoy
2007-01-11 17:33:46

THIS JUST IN: I heard Decision One Mortgage (affiliated with HSBC) is closing down 6 out of 12 branch offices. The closings should occur end of Feb or beginning of March.

Interesting thing is, the woman working there that told me the news said she’ll most likely end up working with a friend at FirstNLC, another subprimer.

Comment by CA renter
2007-01-12 01:19:38

Thanks for the heads-up, Tampa! Good info.

 
 
Comment by Use2BinRE
2007-01-11 18:44:16

SEXY….. she sounds like a hooker. I can’t believe she even said that. How embarrassing for all working women, we have idiots like her ruining it for all of us ladie’s!

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-11 19:11:26

Now we know how the realtors sold property .In summary they told people that they couldn’t afford not to buy with interest so low and property going up 15% to 20% a year, and that it was sexy . I’m sure real estate always goes up and has never gone down was thrown in there also along with the running out of land scare tatic . It’s bizarre that the main media hasn’t questioned such self-serving statements . The media give press releases to this sort of self -serving chatter that’s not backsed by anything .

A reporter should ask ,”what are you telling people who have loss money this year or will lose money who relied on your sales slogans 1 to 2 years ago? “. Or why doesn’t a reporter ask ,”If the RE market isn’t a bubble than why are prices gone down 5 % to 20% in Ca. so far and why are sales down by about 35 % average ?”

Comment by Lionel
2007-01-11 19:30:11

I’d read on the Seattle blog about a mortage broker who had come straight from Hooters. I googled “hooters broker” and found yet another one. Perhaps it’s a trend…

http://www.hooterscalendar.com/g_month_2007.cfm

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-01-11 21:03:20

“CAREER ASPIRATIONS: I’m attending Real Estate School”

Looks like she is reaching for the stars…

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Comment by robin
2007-01-11 19:45:03

Does she have her (shot 15 years earlier) picture on her business card? - :)

Comment by Mike
2007-01-11 22:58:06

No need for 15 year old pictures anymore. Botox will fix that or you can go to a plastic surgeon and end up looking like your Chinese twin sister - like Joan Rivers did. Jeez. Can you imagine waking up, rolling over and seeing that in the morning? If she was laying on your arm you would chew it off so’s not to wake her in order to escape.

What the hell happened to growing old gracefully? Probably went the same way as the 20% down payment on property. I saw Burt Reynolds the other day. He has had a face lift and he looks terrible. Then there’s Kenny Rogers. It doesn’t even look like him. Very sad…….

Comment by robin
2007-01-12 22:02:12

Coyote-ugly realtreesses. Mmmmm…..Tasty! - “)

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Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2007-01-12 13:03:42

You must have missed Auger-Inn’s rap of about 6 months ago that LAY would be working at a place in Ensenada 3 doors down from Hussong’s with a secret door knock needed to get in.

 
 
Comment by Palisades Park
2007-01-11 20:03:52

Here is the market level detail from the new United Van Lines study. I had posted the wrong URL in today’s Bit Bucket.

http://tinyurl.com/y8ryvg

And looking at California just now, it is indeed an Outbound-predominant migration market.

 
Comment by watching the river flow
2007-01-11 21:13:49

Chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, Doug Duncan:

“…although the fundamentals are still sound - economic, job and population growth is intact - he still believes, based on past slowdowns that the slump will take until at least mid-2007 and likely late 2007, to work through.

“We have to work off the excess inventory before real estate returns to trend lines,” he says. That will take 24 to 30 months from the peak, which he has pinpointed as July 2005. Recovery might even take a little longer this time”.

This is actually a very interesting article.

http://tinyurl.com/ylsykd

 
Comment by Stockman123333
2007-01-11 21:23:50

The CA housing prices will cause a huge increase in the number of homeless people on the streets on skid row in LA, downtown in SD, areas of the OC and on and on…..Just takes a blip in the economy when thousands of jobs go poof….and then the real bloodbath will begin…..people won’t be able to make the 3k-5k mortgages and will suddenly be homeless…….only the true millionaires will survive….the lower end of the pay structure will eat it hard…..

Just read an article in the WSJ about the doubling of homeless people in Hawaii……should hit CA in the next 2-3 years….

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-11 22:38:22

I think the market had already overshot and started to contract in mid 2003 . At that exact point in time was when the builders were going into high gear and the realtors and sub-prime lenders needed to keep the party going .This is when the sub-prime loan fraud went into high gear in conjuction with the realtor and builder marketing myths and hype. The market quickly turned into a speculation mania .

Greenspan started the housing boom with low rates and kept it going for a time, but the sub-prime loan fraud and realtor/NAR hype kept it going and turned it into a speculation bubble .The mania happened so fast that the REIC had to keep coming up with myths to justify the loan fraud driven speculation mania market . The regulators were slow to spot what had happened IMHO .

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-11 22:44:40

“The regulators were slow to spot what had happened IMHO.”

The beauty of the invisible hand is that when regulators fall asleep at the wheel, the invisible hand eventually takes over does the hard work of driving the subprime lenders and fraudulent appraisers out of business.

 
Comment by CA renter
2007-01-12 01:22:20

Agree it slowed around Q3 of 2003 (before some more liquidity was injected into the system), but I think prices were high in 2001 already. Got to get back to 1998/1999 ratios to make sense, IMHO.

Comment by Cow_tipping
2007-01-12 09:37:26

Yes IMHO too … 97-98 was the last non bubble year in the state of CA. I say 97 because, 98 saw a Y2K based tech bubble sort of, and 99 saw a non Y2K new technology bubble which inflated up to 2001 spring, and it popped, barely slowing down the house bubble, and 9/11 simply seemed to fan the flames as the bubble now filled with hot air instead of just warm air …
In other parts of the country, 98-2002 was slightly down or slightly up or flat depending on some local factors and it all got inflated starting 02. But CA was already bubblicious in 02. true fundamentals - 97. IMHO. In fact, more jobs from CA have left to China and India I’d think even the 97 fundamentals are not to be attained again.
I mean, a house costs $700K (median) in santa clara. Meanwhile Sanjay In Bangalore can live on $50 a day cos his house costs under $10K, he rides a bicycle to work cos its like 2 miles from work while you spend 2 hours in traffic spending 6 gallons of $3 fuel. Why would your employer buy you that 700K house and 2K in fuel per year (remember your employer pays for it, he pays you a wage and you pay the bank … ) when he can buy Sanjay a 10K house.
I’d like to see wages and house prices come back into line and all else is just going to create a lot of out flow of good tech jobs.
I believe silicone valley is the next detroit. Everything is going to get exported sooner or later.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

 
 
Comment by jim A
2007-01-12 05:20:38

Since the earliest parts of this runup were fueled by ever lowering interest rates, and they bottomed out in the Summer of 2003 I agree. We’ve had 2.5 years of sheer speculative momentum powered by ever loosening credit requirements since then.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-11 23:17:28

Getstucco . Would you agree that regarding financial systems we can’t wait for the invisible hand to correct ? Take the 1929 stock margin buying that set off the crash and Great Depression . The market crashed, but only after the fact was margin stock buying corrected after great pain ,suffering and loss .

Sure the sub-prime lenders are crashing and burning now ,but the horse is out of the barn as far as the damage goes .I would of rather of had the regulators come down on the sub-prime lenders in 2002 or 2003 ,as well as the media come down on the Realtors/NAR for the BS hype to spare this Nation the pain the future holds .The “invisible hand ” in a free market system is to slow .

Comment by crisrose
2007-01-12 01:09:40

The pain the future holds was hitting in 2001 - the housing bubble (blown after rates were lowered in response to 9/11) bought time.

Those who saw what was coming used that time to finalize preparations. A few more years to save and stock up - provided by the greedy brain dead who mortgaged/heloc’d themselves into oblivion.

Subprime is over now - no house price inflation to help service the mortgage debt through refi/heloc/sale.

As FB’s move into their new digs (cardboard boxes, old autos, freeway underpasses) justice is served.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-12 08:15:02

My point is that the affordability capped in 2002 or 2003 and the invisible hand or regulators didn’t stop the sub-prime loan/appraisal fraud lack of qualifying speculation market that pushed the housing market into a outright mania .
People will lose money and will get their ‘Justice ” as you say ,but alot of people who had nothing to do with this false market will suffer also ,(tax bail outs ,job loss ,possible recession ,waste in the market ,etc, etc, family break ups ).
The regulators coming in a little sooner would of prevented some of this mess .

 
 
 
Comment by PG
2007-01-12 03:08:15

Housing is sexy. Yup, I am sitting here with a boner just thinking about housing.

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-01-12 04:21:30

Yup, as sexy as a fat and ugly 60 year old.

I think that there is great opportunity for someone to write a book of housing related quotes from 2004 to 2008. Any aspiring writers on this blog?

Jas

 
 
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