Phoenix Housing Market ‘Has Done A Complete About-Face’
The Arizona Republic reports on the housing bubble in the Phoenix area. “Metropolitan Phoenix’s housing market started 2005 with a bang but ended it amid concerns of a price bubble. Home values soared and houses sold within days in most neighborhoods during the first six months of the year. But then investors began to bail, listings climbed and asking prices stared surpassing home appraisals.”
“By September, the market was showing signs of cooling. In October, home prices slipped slightly.”
“Resale listings exceeded 30,000 in January, nearly nine times the level of the same month of last year. Selling time increased from about 5 1/2 days to 49. Sellers are frustrated because they are getting few offers, and many are cutting prices. Buyers seeing the slowing have become much more cautious.”
“Neil Brooks, an agent in northeast Phoenix, said shoppers are trying lowball offers of $30,000 to $50,000 less than asking prices as a starting spot in negotiations. ‘Last year, it was the sellers who were being very aggressive, and now it’s the buyers,’ he said. ‘There’s so much inventory, they can sit back and spend their time looking at bazillions of homes.’”
“‘The market has done a complete about-face,’ said Barbara Sage, a northwest Valley and Sun City specialist. ‘Last year, 14 offers for a home would come across at once, clogging up the fax machine.’ Now, she said, after showing a property the seller’s agent will call and tell her the ‘owner is anxious to sell.’ She tells them with a ‘yawn’ that her buyer has a few more properties to look at.”
“‘The days of multiple offers made on sight-unseen properties and offers well above list price are gone for now,’ said (realtor) Cecil Duarte. ‘The market has softened. Inventory ballooned, and the days are here again for buyers to negotiate on price, terms and even seller contributions toward closing costs. Homes lasting on the market longer will affect prices,’ he said. ‘If we get that speculated ‘dump and run’ by investors, I expect to see prices to get competitive, and sellers offering incentives like they did in the early 1990s.’”
“The slowdown has hit the new-home market as well. Builders that were overwhelmed with demand a year ago now are offering such freebies as thousands off spec homes, free pools or price cuts on upgrades to bring back the buyers. Doug Fulton said the slowdown was obvious to him on a recent flying tour of Pinal County. He said the number of new-house slabs in Maricopa was down by a third or more compared with six months ago.”
“Fulton said executives of public builders are under pressure from Wall Street to duplicate last year’s results in the Phoenix market this year. He said that would be difficult and said he would be happy with the 10 to 15 percent price increases he expects this year.”
‘”It’s no longer ‘build it and they will come.’ That’s not what will happen in ‘06,’ Fulton said. ‘It will be a battle. Corporate expectations are very high.’”
“Pete Kanton is trying to sell several of his own Valley residential properties as well as some for clients. ‘All are priced competitively, at or below what other homes of similar size and amenities have sold for in the areas,’ he said. ‘All have been marketed on MLS, signs, classified ads and mailing to the neighborhood. But none have sold.’”
“In addition to the normal drop in activity, the first quarter of the year the market appears to be in a ‘holding’ pattern,’ Kanton said. ‘Buyers are anxiously waiting to see if sellers will begin those price reductions many have speculated about, and sellers are looking at comps their agent puts in front of them from middle to late summer and into last fall when the market peaked and not willing to lower their list price because others got that price.’”
“Shannon Osborn put her home in the 85254 ZIP code in north Scottsdale on the market last December. She has lowered her price twice so it’s $25,000 less than where she started. Her real estate agent is running several ads, but so far the only potential buyers who have come to see it want to ‘flip the house’ so they don’t even come close to the asking price.”
“‘With what I owe and what I have put into it, I am not going to give it away,’ she said. ‘My home is beautiful and all the new interior remodel is beautiful. So I am at a loss on ideas.’”
“(Realtor) Margie O’Campo de Castillo said the housing market still is strong. ‘But homes won’t appreciate like last year,’ she said. ‘Sellers can’t over inflate their prices anymore. If you don’t think the market is slowing, just look at all the open houses.’”
“So you bought a couple of houses in the Valley during the height of the real estate frenzy last year, hoping to flip them for quick profits. But with prices stabilizing and sales slowing, what do you do now? Try cozying up with a copy of Arizona’s Residential Landlord Tenant Act.”
“Absentee investors from California and other states, who have helped push up Arizona home prices, might be in for some surprises when it comes to managing properties. ‘At your own home, you can ignore little problems like a leaky faucet or dripping pipes,’ (property manager) Debbie Norton said. ‘But a person paying rent expects that to be taken care of.’”
“Patience is another virtue of landlords, not just in dealing with tenants and repairmen but also in taking a long-term outlook with rental properties. After the sharp run-up in housing prices in recent years, ‘rents don’t come close to covering payments,’ Norton said. That implies landlords need enough financial stability to sit on money-losing properties for years, if necessary. ‘Rents are still low and you can’t buy a single-family home today in the Phoenix area and expect a positive cash flow,’ Ray Wendel warns.”
“‘With what I owe and what I have put into it, I am not going to give it away,’ she said. ‘My home is beautiful and all the new interior remodel is beautiful. So I am at a loss on ideas.’”
Ya bought at the top lady. That would mean that prices will go lower from here (otherwise we wouldn’t be calling it “a top”)! That means you have to lower the price to sell it. Who gives a sh*t what you owe on it or what you put into it, that’s irrelevant! The eventual new owners will either buy it from you or the bank but it will be at a drastically lower price the further out the transaction takes place, get it?
“I’m not going to give it away” is becoming the new cliche to replace “they aren’t making any more land.” I always laugh when I see quotes like that. “My house is beautiful, ergo, I will demand top dollar and will hold my breath until I turn blue if I don’t get it.”
I hate to tell these people this but what they call “beautiful” is often simply hideous. I would suggest to this lady that if it’s so darn beautiful and she won’t give it away (IOW, forgo the last year or two of “appreciation”) that she just remain there and enjoy the beauty every day. LOL
Most of the stuff built in the last 30 years is hideous, including Toll Bros., etc. They just don’t make homes like they used to. But the hideous has become so commonplace that most folks aren’t aware of it or don’t care since their neighbor’s home is equally so.
Most of the new stuff I see going up around here comes in a package. All the walls and trusses are built in a factory and then put together on the site. All the work is subcontracted into various jobs. I think the last place I had gave me a list of 20 subcontractors who built the place. A quality home is hard to find. I do recommend william lyon homes. They are pretty good and seem to treat you right if you have a problem.
I agree with your assessment of William Lyon. We were happy with the home.
I think I read this article in the republic about an hour ago. They are having some 16 page article on housing in the az republic sunday. I feel a chill in the air here. I think people are going to be in lots of trouble here soon. This was speculation heaven. Bus loads of investors from cali gobbled up lots of properties around here. I drive around and see lots of empty houses, flyers on the doors etc.Asking prices are just outrageous, most at least 50k over in this market. There is trouble brewing. I think queen creek is going to take a bit hit. It was build like crazy and ask question later out there. The roads are horrid out there. There is really not much entertainment out there.
the entertainment will be watching your idiot out-of-state neighbor trying to unload his flip…now that is comedy
In the late 90’s, my parents owned an apartment building where values came down so low, banks were selling and owners were renting to anyone.
It became a gang haven overnight. Cheap prices attract the poorest of the poor and there goes the neighborhood.
I have a feeling this is what will become or areas like this real sooooooooon.
Actually, she has owned the house since 1992. The problem is that since then she has taken out increasingly larger mortgages.
Yes…Plus, more and more, people get stuck on what their RE agent, sites like zillow.com, comps from last year, etc, tell her that her house is *worth*. She forgets that it is only worth what someone will pay for it. Plain and simple. Granted, some improvements add value, but not as much as she thinks she deserves. I’m sure her appreciation numbers are HUGE if she bought in 1992, but obviously, she was out when the memo was delivered….housing market is softening, prices are going down, houses are staying on the market LONGER, fewer buyers willing to pay the over-inflated prices.
My advice to her: Get a grip. Get over yourself. The sooner she comes down from the clouds, the better it will be in the long run. She probably should have sold it to the *flippers* who made an offer. At least it would be off her hands. She said, though, that they didn’t come close to the asking, but what does that really mean? That she wouldn’t get all her remodel investment back? Puleezzzz…..if she is able to pay off her loan she will be one of the lucky ones.
txchick….you cracked me up with your remodel comment.
And you are SO right on. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder…how can she, with a straight face, assume that someone else will appreciate/like/love her house the way she does and will pay through the nose for it?
BayQT~
Hey! That gave me an idea for a new subject on the blog.
What’s the funniest/most hideous thing you’ve seen in a house for sale? I’m sure we’ve all seen the harvest gold appliances or gigantic glamour shots of the family above the fireplace, or that carefully displayed collection of beer signs . . . anyone got any others?
Glamour shots of an entire family? I had no idea. I’m scared.
What are ya saying here? beer signs aren’t classy?
I vote for that ocean mural on that house in Grover Beach, California (the one that will have a dutch auction).
I just had to mention, the flipper in the home next to me called me over to show me his kitchen remodel, to complement the new formica counter-tops, he was gluing linoleum on the walls and for the backsplash! This in 3000 sq ft luxo house.
People have to stop taking a fall in price so PERSONALLY! It’s not a slight against them. It’s just the market. Sometimes you win, sometimes you get f@cked. She needs to just sit back and get it over with.
It’s amazing how many people define their own self-worth by the value (real or imagined) of their home.
The stubborness (greed) to get the price they feel they deserve is the same mentality that explains why some people will hold onto falling stocks until they bottom out (sometimes to zero value).
Once their neighbor gets a certain price for their house it becomes an entitlement, like Social Security. And we know how folks get when their entitlements are threatened.
Sorry Shannon, you missed the top. Suck it up and drop your price and sell. You won’t be ‘giving it away’ and you can still walk with a tidy profit- Unless you HELOCed for that 5 carat ring…
Try this for Arizona Republics logic; same article:
‘Owning rentals in growing areas like metropolitan Phoenix can be a solid path to wealth. Over time, the value of real estate in well-positioned markets will appreciate. Meanwhile, someone else, the tenant, will be making payments on your property.’
‘rents don’t come close to covering payments,’ Norton said. That implies landlords need enough financial stability to sit on money-losing properties for years, if necessary.’
There is no way to break even on anything around me. The only thing you are speculating on is quick apprecitaion and those days are done.
Ben,
Have you ever been to dolan springs? What is it like?
Sorry, I’ve never even heard of it. You see, I have this time consuming blog and……….
It is between kingman and vegas. I was curious what is what like. Might be a good day trip. I’ve always wanted to go to hoover dam.
Dolan Springs:
Out in the hot, flat desert–gravel & creosote bush, with some occasional rocky knolls. Got to have looming water problems, too, particularly given the issues in Kingman. And a good 40 miles from Lake Mead (Gregg Basin or Pierce Ferry–and Pierce Ferry only has a boat ramp in good years. Otherwise it’s mud flats.)
Not attractive to most folks on this blog, unless you’re a desert hermit. (As a desert rat and a geologist, I could probably deal with it better than most–and I have other places I find much more attractive) At least there would be lots of solar power to run the A/C…
I was last thru there ca. ‘85, but I doubt it’s changed much.
Hoover Dam is very different–in Black Canyon, much more spectacular altho just as hot. It is definitely worth a visit.
Thanks for the information!!!!!
dolen springs, more like feloney flats, more churches and liq. stores. what do you have when you have 28 girls from dolen? a full set of teeth. the biggest employer in dolen are the meth labs.you cant even buy sudefed in kingman with out an id and you must sign for it. they are mixing sutafed and drano in the sink in dolen.
LOL! That was a good one, Ben. You’re probably chained to your desk most of the time. I know! You can get out for some fresh air and take pics to add to the gallery. All in the name of the blog …..so it will be time well spent and you get a break to boot.
BayQT~
hey—if you haven’t, put the blog in an S corp. some write offs, and you still indulge the addiction. THX by the way.
just for kicks - that would be a fun post. A straw poll asking how much time is spent reading/posting on this blog by everyone and maybe even how much work productivity is missed reading about RE and the bubble (our little addiction).
Ben - what do you think?
I’ve often thought that would be a good topic. Also, how many here spend more time posting with strangers on a blog than they do talking to their own spouses? (Yikes!)
dont go there buddy!
Dolan Spring is a HELL HOLE in the middle of nowhere between Vegas and I-40 lots of low life!
In a way it is so sad to be so right about how this was destined to all play out….
Yeah, right :twisted:.
Ooooohh! Now that’s a good smiley!
“Resale listings exceeded 30,000 in January, nearly nine times the level of the same month of last year. Selling time increased from about 5 1/2 days to 49.”
49 days after 9 times swell in inventory? SU-U-U-URR!
Agents freely acknowledge they re-list properties all the time in AZ. I rarely even include those numbers anymore for that reason.
The numbers are correct. Selling days take time to catch up–they are a lagging indicator.
It’s more important to know months of inventory….which is about 7 right now.
49 days might be a correct figure. On average, houses that ARE selling are taking 49 days. The problem is that so many houses aren’t selling because of the outrageous prices.
Exactly. In a market where many houses simply don’t sell and are ultimately delisted or relisted, the dom figure for sold houses is completely irrelevant.
Without reference to the sale price / quality relationship, it is completely irrelevant to refer to DOM as an indicator, except to say that this figure goes up when homes are priced too high to sell…
see, that’s what I don’t get. I’ve been occasionally matching the ‘homes sold this week’ in the AZ republic with the listings for those zipcodes on zip realty. On that metric, seems to be in the 4 week range for inventory. They also show sales previous year. It looks not so bad…..and yet…. my gut tells me very different. Not quite sure how it’s cooked, but Denmark is complaining about the stench.
When a clerk at the office tells me a year ago how she & her hubby bought another investment property (SFR) in phx SIGHT UNSEEN I gets that funny feeling. Phoenix is definitely on the fast track to a really Bad Day at Black Rock
One further comment: The 49 days is not a low estimate of the time to sell a home only because of the delisting phenomenon, but also because the homes which never sell are not included in the average. The average time to sell for homes which actually sold is thus biased downwards as a measure of the prospective time a new seller will take to unload their overpriced used home, as it excludes cases where the time until sale is infinity…
convert to rentals, yeah! Mebbe they should check the Craigslist rentals before they say that.
Super OT, but, listen, are we going to let the brit bubblewatchers beat us at flash animation??? — this is the funniest, coolest animation ever on the housing bubble — so we must one-up them! alert your graphic artist friends:
http://www.parkerchris.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/vocationvocationvocation.html
That is too cute
that was swell!
Love it!
That is fantastic!
LOVE that! The best part was the graph with stagnation. Too funny!
Oh, but real estate is always local, local, local. Not hearing as much of that lately either. Thanks to blogs like Ben’s here, the RE industry can no longer fool people into thinking their particular area is just SO MAGNIFICENT that EVERYBODY WANTS TO LIVE THERE…and that is why prices have gone up.
That was pretty good
I would say the gauntlet has been dropped, especially for LA-area bubbleheads who reside in the Hollywood vicinity…
Ben,
You need to add video-youtube.com or something, so I can turn the blog ‘on’ in the morning and not have to see the shallow b.s. on t.v.
sorry for the double posting from another article further down…. (I can’t resist)
Phoenix metro area - HAPPY 37K MLS Listings. According to ziprealty.com, we hit 37,111 MLS Listings today.
Burn baby burn….
FYI - Ben also said the rumor is 14,000 of those listings are vacant.
this RE market bursting is starting to hit the mainstream media it seems (finally).
Just surfing through the channels this morning, I saw a 5-10 minute story on CNN about RE going down and affecting sellers.
Then on FoxNews, they were debating whether RE would help cause a recession during a rountable discussion.
Last night on NBC Nighlty News, there was a story about RE housing slowing down dramatically.
So, my point is when the rest of the herd starts getting a whiff of this trend and pull their collective heads out of the sand and sit up and take notice, it’s my humble opinion that the death spiral’s pace will only quicken.
The “sand.” Is that what you call it?
I used sand to be nice…
How can people expect a 4% increase in homes this year when they are overpriced by 50,000-80,000. I’m thinking more of a reduction by about 20-30%.
Accroyer,
Good point. Some of these supposed experts will be in denial all the way to the very bottom of this crash. Reminds of the IT stock crash a few years ago (which I was affected through job loss), I kept hearing so many people in the earlier stages (before 9/11) saying that the IT job market is supposed to pick up in a couple of months or this and that. After a while, you could tell we hit the nuclear winter stage (bottomed out) because no one would even talk about a turn around anymore.
I guess its a perfect example of “when you are inside a bubble, it’s the most difficult time to identify one”.
Or….
I can stop drinking or taking drugs anytime I want to….
These RE “experts” got to get off the crack cocaine….
If no one is buying houses now, how can you justify a 4% increase. How stupid can you be.. a 6 year old can figure that out.
Check this out…part of an LA Times article about job creation…
But an index released Friday by Spherion Corp., a staffing company, indicated a decline in January in the percentage of California workers expressing confidence in job availability and their personal employment situation.
The drop “serves to reinforce the level of uncertainty that still exists in the state’s workforce,” said Ralph Henderson, a Spherion senior vice president.
One source of worker unease might be the slowing housing market.
Construction was one of four out of 11 industry categories tracked by the state that reported job declines in January, losing a net 1,300 jobs. The industry added 75,700 jobs over the last 12 months. Levy and other analysts are concerned that construction jobs won’t grow at all this year amid a slowdown in new-home building.
RE related industries and the Housing ATM has been the key driver in the national economy for the last 3-4 years. I saw some economist report saying 43% of all nation wide job growth from 2001 has been from RE. Yikes! Economy is too dependent on one industry.
I also read that one out of every three dollars generated in the local Phoenix economy comes from RE related activities.
these things don’t generally end well….
why does it seem like they hang their hats on RE not falling because we haven’t had job losses like in the early 90s and we won’t? why did that become the benchmark? I’ll tell you what the benchmarks are, affordability and the dynamics of supply and demand. 9X the number of homes is a good start.
pretty soon people are going to realize how many homes are on the market and tell themselves if they wait 6 months they’ll get a bigger house for the same price. or they’ll wait a few more months. and then a few more.
Becauses during the last downturn specifically in Los Angeles job loss was a big player in the downturn. Which makes this downturn even more sinister.
This really caught my eye. These builders use most of the same designs in each developement they build. They raise prices in each new development they build AND on the same house by $10K on each phase they open in a complex. Now think about the number of identical houses that have been built over the past five years and you’ll wonder how Mr. Fulton expects to get an extra 15% this year when the identical houses are available from investors who bought a much lower prices and are desperate to exit. Why would a buyer want to pay 15% or more and wait five months for their house to be built when they can get an often never occupied house immediately at a lower price ? The savings alone would pay to replace the cheap ass kitchens and carpets these speculators installed.
We put our home on the week before Thanksgiving, just went into escrow yesterday (non-contingent offer). It is a 2003, .269 acre, single level, 5 bedroom, 4 bath, 3005 sq ft place, 2 car + tandem garage, mountain & park views (no home behind), end of cul-de-sac, upgrades like granite, ss, etc. great local builder w/architectural details not typically seen here. We are in the 85340 zip code, Litchfield Park, near Phoenix. We originally listed at $689,900 (we knew it was aggressive, but gave it a shot) and dropped in December to $650,000. Last week we had two offers, accepted the second at $650,000 no realtor fees (other had a buyer’s agent and would’ve been 3% out). We then had two people that week express interest that were on the fence (had viewed it and waiting for us to the drop the price further I’m guessing), and were kinda bummed when we said we had accepted a contract. Talked with one couple that has played the waiting game in our neighborhood twice before our home figuring the homes were sitting 2-3 months, by the time they got off the fence and put in an offer, the homes had accepted other contracts. They had listed their home, a week or so ago, but were on the fence with us too. They’ll find they missed out yet again in this neighborhood (not that there aren’t plenty of other homes in the area, or even our community, but good plans & builds are fewer and farther between).
Anyway, as much as I think things have cooled here, and obviously inventory is high, I still think there is a “dead cat bounce” in the air as the activity definitely was picking up the last two weeks.
Okay, question for all of you….what do you think about buying cash in a non-bubble market? We have been very blessed to make a nice amount in San Diego when moving 3 yrs ago, and now in Phoenix. We don’t want to screw up this financial boost. So our situation….
Now we are having a real hard time finding a rental near Wilmington, NC (husband will be in Jacksonville, we are looking in Hampstead which is 20 minutes dead center between Wilmington and Jacksonville). Everything is taken and a 2 bedroom apt (no garage) in Jacksonville (not a great town) is $860…but then because we are gonna have 8 months renting, then not renting for 6 months (husband will be deployed and I’ll be in MD helping w/ill parents), then renting again for 3 months after the deployment he said they want to tack on a huge surcharge per month and it will be around $1000 per month. None of the homes will do a short term rental for this situation as they rent out quickly for year long rentals (or they are beach rentals…too pricey this time of year).
He is considering buying there as we can now pay cash for a $259,000 2000sq ft 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, 2 car garage which base price includes wood floors, granite, trim work, etc and .5 acre. Real nice community, less than 10 minutes to beach, no HOA fees, septic I think. Builder is offering closing costs (which won’t be much if paying cash, so dh is asking for a couple of things too). It is in framing stage (not even on market, but one that is near completion had an offer before dh could even offer), so we could have our own inspector, etc.
Have to admit that I’m a little leary about buying again. DH points out it is not a “bubble” market, paying cash means we can invest the rent/mortgage money (our current home had a $300,000 mortgage, we were paying close to $2000 a month with mortgage, HOA, etc), and if we transfer we can easily rent it out (rentals are $900-1400) if we decide it isn’t worth selling at that time. Plus we will still have close to $80,000 in cash, not to mention our IRAs, cars paid off, etc. He aslo mentions the ease factor for us (not bouncing between rentals as we would obviously keep it during deployment), more stable for our preschoolers, and less to worry about for me since it could get rough this year with my dad’s declining health.
Curious, what do ya’ll think??? Is it crazy to buy now at all, or okay in a stable market if paying cash? DH is a pilot in the military (he is in a guaranteed bonus contract till yr 16…4 more years) and should be able to go to 20 no problem (shortage in his yr group), so a recession wouldn’t affect our pay. Thanks for comments
How is your life insurance situation ? Paying cash sounds nice but having a small mortage and more money in the bank might be a safer proposistion. If you have two kids you’re already itemizing so a small mortgage deduction might be helpful tax wise.
Paying interest to a bank solely to get some of it back on taxes seems like a lose to me. Also, paying mortgage fees for a short-term stay also seems like throwing money away.
Yes but she said it might become a rental if she moved in which case you’d want the property to be leveraged. Why tie up cash you might need in the future ?
Thanks everyone for the input
Our life insurance is okay. When the military had SGLI at $250000 we upped to $500,000 (when our first was a baby). Now I think the minimum is $500,000, so dh just got the paperwork to raise it further. The last year or two I worked before staying at home with the kids I was making 6 figures. So, while I know I can make a living if something happened, I also know it’s been a while and wouldn’t expect to make the same amount right off the bat (or at all as I worked killer hours then). There are other benefits in that event as well (they pay for the funeral, some money to the kids, etc). We have a bit on me too…although I stay at home now, he’d need childcare for the kids if something happened to me. In his line of work although we don’t like to think about it, having life insurance is a must have. We’ve already seen too many friends over the years die young (we are in our early/mid 30s). I feel pretty safe when he is in the jet, but this upcoming deployment will be a ground billet (air officer for a year and half)…will be glad when this tour is over and he is back to flying as potentially being on the ground in Iraq does have me a bit nervous.
Although dh is great with managing the money, using Quicken, etc. I agree it might be time to double check with an accountant or get some one to look over our portfolio at this stage of the game.
I do feel better that some of you agree that the intangibles might make it worth while…I am figuring it might be worth a slight risk to make life easier.
Thanks again!
Mo Money might be right about keeping a small mortgage for the tax advantages. My dad does that on his house in Cali. I’m no accountant though, so I would consult one prior to any purchase decision.
I think it could be a good idea to buy the home considering it is a non-bubble market. If you were buying in CA right now I would say no way…just rent. Plus, sounds like you would keep the house for a long time which is good. Also, due to your family’s life situations buying would seem to make sense for you. In addition, it is way within your budget whether you pay cash or keep a small mortgage. On top of it all, you can have a place to call your own.
Good luck!
bj72
buy. You got free money, and by changing location, you can buy cash. buy, don’t worry if it goes down 20%. what did you lose, 5% of the gain you made? you have enough to worry about without having to worry about finding another rental.
this is a clear case of when the “intangibles” of homeownership make sense, imho
buy
Rent. No markets are ‘non-bubble markets.’
It’s best to wait until escrow is closed, and check is in hand.
No-contingency does not mean much. Buyer can still sue and tie up
the property for years. But good luck any way, just be careful not to end up with 2 mortgages.
Comment by arizonadude
2006-03-04 12:34:42
It is between kingman and vegas. I was curious what is what like. Might be a good day trip. I’ve always wanted to go to hoover dam.
I think I might have been there, checking out vacant land and properties. If it is where I *think* it is, its probably another indistinct community of trailer homes. Very rural area. If there were any actual homes in the area I missed them.
Also, all these new “masterplanned home communities” that are supposed to be going up outside of Hoover dam and between Vegas and Kingman haven’t materialized yet (if they ever do).
Phoenix inventory just passed the 37,000 mark.
Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking
I wonder what the current total months of inventory is for Phoenix?
Another question - since I am no expert, how is the total months of inventory calculated?
5260 homes sold in PhX for January; this is probably a conservative figure, given that number of homes sold has been steadily declining for months, but 37K / 5260 = 7 months worth or so…
GetStucco - thanks!
Actually, your numbers aren’t correct. The 37k inventory includes land. You need to subtract about 4k.
The current months inventory is about 6.5 months…but still growing.
oc….niiiiiiice job!
that’s music to my eyes. better than a van halen concert
Any flippers who bought in Phoenix area last summer are in for a (well deserved) world of hurt.
Couldn’t agree more.
Phoenix is starting to burn and it’s not even summer yet.
I wonder what MLS listings we’ll top out atin the PHX metro area? 50,000? 60k? ….
What’s the historical average?
“Any flippers who bought in Phoenix area last summer are in for a (well deserved) world of hurt.”
To make matters worse, a ton of those speculators that bought here in Phx last year were local amatuers thinking they can jump in and make easy money. The Az economy as a whole is going to suffer.
Phx = Ground Zero
oh man - we need a preview button for catching mistakes. doh!
What is the tax advantage of having a mortgage when you don’t have to have one? Pay the bank $1000, so you can save $250-300 on your taxes. Banks love that thinking.
Trade a quarter for dollar- Such a deal.
Two things. I am too addicted to this blog, and spend a couple of hours everyday here, like most everyone else. Too much of a wealth of knowledge, and confirmation of my analysis of CA from a couple of years.
Unique item in the house we have purchased in ABQ. The seller had worked at AOL, and had collected the start-up disks (the ones they mail for free to every address in the country). He must have had 500 of them, each with a different design, posted around the room just below ceilling level in one of the bedrooms. I had to ask him what they were. He is taking that collection treasure with him. They really did take excellent care of the house while they owned.
With what I owe and what I have put into it, I am not going to give it away,’ she said. ‘My home is beautiful and all the new interior remodel is beautiful. So I am at a loss on ideas.’”
She doesn’t want to accept the obvious. What she owes on the property would not matter to me. I wouldn’t offer a nickel more than I thought I might have a shot at lowballing it at. Many FBers are going to have to bring money to their closing. Hope she is able to sell some some Flopper before the bank takes it, and then sends her to debtors prison. WTF, did she do with all of that $200K in equity that she liberated (and spent)?
There will be a lot more short sales and BKs resulting in lender-owned properties than people bringing cash to a closing. Most people that purchased in the past couple of years put ZERO down for a reason. They have no $$$$$ to bring to a closing…
then theywill be F@CKED